Andy & Ari On3 - Who breaks through in 2025? Brent Venables, Brian Kelly, Billy Napier or Lincoln Riley?

Episode Date: August 28, 2025

Week 1 is FINALLY here as Nebraska and Cincinnati are set to kickoff tonight in Kansas City at 9:00 pm et. Before we get to that game, Andy & Ari go through the top coaches who can breakthrough in year 4 at their current spot. Out of Billy Napier, Brent Venables, Lincoln Riley, and Brian Kelly, Andy & Ari go in depth into this list of coaches and who is best set up for success going into this year. Who do you think is best set up for a successful 2025 campaign? (0:00-1:02) On Today’s Episode(1:03-3:15) BetMGM(3:16-7:24) Intro: YouTube TV & Fox Agreement(7:25-9:24) Nebraska vs. Cincinnati TONIGHT(9:25-16:27) Breakthrough Coaches ahead of 2025(16:28-23:42) Top Rosters in this scenario(23:43-27:02) PaniniAmerica(27:03-28:24) Starbucks(28:25-31:00) Story Time(31:01-39:35) Tyler Shoemaker joins the show: Cincy vs. Nebraska(39:36-40:44) Gametime(40:45-46:31) Alabama at Florida State(46:32-51:47) Mississippi State at Southern Miss(51:48-55:50) Thank you, Lee Corso!(55:51-1:00:35) Mailbag: Utah’s Outlook(1:00:36-1:08:47) Clemson in the new era of CFB(1:08:48-1:09:25) Grabass counter?(1:09:26-1:12:49) Thank you to our listeners(1:12:50-1:13:37) Conclusion: It’s Week 1! Next, we welcome Tyler Shoemaker on from VSiN to give us his last minute picks for week 1. What should we expect from Nebraska vs Cincinnati tonight? Could Florida State and Alabama be a low scoring affair? What should we think of Mississippi State traveling to Hattiesburg? All that and more with Tyler Shoemaker on today's show. Moving on, Andy & Ari pay homage to a legend of the game: Lee Corso. As the notable icon selects his last headgear piece on Saturday from Columbus, the fellas go through their favorite memories with Coach Corso. To close, we go through some great mailbag questions from the listeners. How should we view Utah and Clemson? And can we count how many times Ari says one of his many catchphrases? A jam packed show you don't want to miss right before Week 1 kicks off! Our show is presented by BetMGM! See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Gameday starts at Starbucks! Join JD Pickell and Devin Hester at Starbucks on August 31st before the Miami v Notre Dame matchup to celebrate the return of the football and pumpkin season!https://starbucks.app.link/YlU0GSET2Vb?%243p=a_custom_838078477923275313&~customer_placement=youtube&~campaign=fy25fallcustomcontentprograms&~creative_name=on3 This show is brought to you by Panini America, makers of the most collectible sports cards on the planet. The Luminance football card series features NIL autographed cards from players including Arch Manning, Quinn Ewers, Cam Ward, Jalen Milroe, Dylan Raiola, DJ Lagway, and Luther Burden. To start collecting, visit PaniniAmerica.net. Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/C Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/W_pfWyUz2NM Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail]

On today's Andy and Ari on three, we examine which of four, fourth year coaches will make a breakthrough this season. Could be multiple, could be none, but they're all under tremendous pressure. That would be Billy Napier at Florida, Brent Venables at Oklahoma, Lincoln Riley at USC, and Brian Kelly at LSU. Who's breaking through? Who's disappointing? We'll talk about that. We'll also have your last-minute best bets with Tyler Shoemaker, one of the great analysts at Vison. Also, dear Andy and dear Ari, gets you ready for this weekend's games with questions about Utah, with questions about Clemson.

Guys, we're here. Lee Corso has his last show. We're going to guess which head he's putting on. And there are games today. You're going to listen to this show, watch this show, and then you're going to listen to this show. watch some games on Thursday night. God bless America. Let's start the show.

Andy and Ari on 3 is sponsored by BetM-G-M-G-M-G-T today. Use the bonus code CFB. That's college football, CFB, or Ari A-R-I, and get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if you don't win. If you haven't signed up yet, use the bonus code CFB or the bonus code Ari, and you'll get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with bed MGM.

But that's not everything. Once you've already signed up on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday of week one. So August 28 through August 30th, they've got a no sweat parley boost token. So you go for the end zone without breaking a sweat. With a college football no sweat parlay token, you will get your stake back in bonus bets if you don't win. also Thursday, Friday, and Saturday of week one. There's another college football parley boost token. And no matter where it is, there's nothing like you know in the game

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Welcome to Annie and Ari on 3. It is Thursday of week one, which means. there are games within a few hours. This show is dropping at 3 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, which means we are only two and a half hours away from the kickoff of USF and Boise State. There is also Nebraska-Sincentinati tonight. There is UCF and Jacksonville State. And of course, an incredibly big slate of games Friday and Saturday.

Friday, Ari, YouTube TV viewers do not have to worry about whether they're going to get Auburn Baylor. because YouTube TV and Fox came to a deal. So they don't have to worry about it. It's going to be on your TV. And probably more important to everybody, Texas, Ohio State will appear on your devices as well. I'm shocked they figured it out, Andy. Really, really totally shocked. When the FCC chair was like, hey, why don't you guys figure this out?

I was like, I think they're going to figure this out. What percentage of people have YouTube TV in general just to watch sports? like half i would i would think that most of the people who subscribe to youtube tv like a more than half do it to watch sports half was conservative i wouldn't have i wouldn't have any live television if it went for sports and i don't know if that's just my generation or the fact that i like sports a lot or the fact that i can watch all the things i want to watch on netflix youtube the regular youtube i mean like they've got everything on that you know i don't know i'm happy they figured it out i'm happy we don't have to scramble to figure out how to watch these games because the best thing

about YouTube TV, really, Andy, to me, isn't the service of your house. It's the availability of being able to watch anything anywhere you want on your phone or your tablet. Like that, that's the best part to me. Yeah. And look, all of those services, none of these are advertisers, by the way, but all of those services, you can do it on your, on your phone and tablet now. What YouTube TV has that they don't, which may only be helped for our jobs, you know,

folks who are in the audience, you tell me one way of the other. the unlimited dvr function because i just record every college football game so i can go back and watch every college football game and producer river points out they also have the quad box which is pretty awesome yeah the quad box is nice although i like feel like i'm having a stroke whenever i watch it i have to i don't really use it as much as i probably should because that box is a better second screen situation it's a great second screen situation and but what happens is when something interesting happens on one of the four games i always click to open because i like i wanted to need a full thing um but you know with social media and everything too like it's it's pretty easy to stay on top

of what's going on and what's interesting on a saturday so but i'm so happy that because you know where i'm going to be tomorrow night that's that's front of center for this this football game here and the only regret that i have about being in south carolina tomorrow night um is that i'm far away from this because this is going to be a really good game and i'm happy they figure out Auburn at Baylor. Fed MGM has Auburn a two and a half point favorite on the road. Talk to somebody who's been in Auburn this week. They told me the folks on the planes are very confident, very confident as they head over the team.

The team. Oh, that's good to know. So very calm. I was on a radio hit on Thursday morning, like early, I think in Iowa. And they were talking to me about this game. And I'm like, I am dangerously high on Auburn this year. year and like there should be a helpline for this feeling because i don't know if this is natural or a normal uh it seems like a Auburn problem call 100 war eagle yeah yeah like it seems more like

a perversion than it does anything but you know I'm hoping for the best here but you know Baylor's a very good football team too and the thing that I'm most excited about is high quality football it's the first game of the year where two teams that are nationally relevant are taking the field against each other right like in Nebraska's tonight and everyone's excited to do what Nebraska is but the opponent isn't interesting. Like the opponent for Auburn is very. It's interesting because it's in Kansas City and Jason Kelsey is a Cincinnati grad. There are some big, big news involving Jason Kelsey this week.

Like, do you buy there even being a 1% advantage for Cincinnati because of this? No. Not one bit. Did I say Jason Kelsey? Listen, I always default to the offensive line. And Travis Kelsey, Cincinnati grad, Jason Kelsey also a Cincinnati grad, but Travis in the news, because he got engaged this week. Do you think like hype or things that are happening in or around your program

and the local, like the fact that they're playing Cincinnati in Kansas City, like, is a funny thing? Does any external factor to you ever have an impact on like the way you think a team is going to show up? Or do you think that most of the players on Cincinnati are like, I mean, you also could say that Dylan Riali, Dylan Riala's hero will be in the building, Patrick Mahomes. It's not his own God made him look directly like. Pat, okay. That is a quote from Dylan Raola. It's something he said this week.

Yes. I think Dylan Raola is a handsome man, and I think that he does kind of look like Patrick Mahomes, but I think he looks a lot more like Patrick Mahomes because of his haircut and facial hair than he does because of his actual structure of his face. I think physically, like, height, weight, they're very similar to. Like, in uniform, quite a bit alike.

and obviously they were the same number so yeah i mean he also wears the same number has the same color scheme jumps the same way before the game pipes up the team and has the same like finger mannerism like i mean they do a lot of this he does a lot of the same things that he's copying yes exactly i don't know like i don't think that's all a coincidence and you know what though i'm all for it like if i were him i would do the same thing i'm not even talking trash like i think that anything that you can do to give your fan base a mahomes like that looks just like him look at that picture it looks like i know i know so we're going to talk more about this game when tyler shoemaker from vison joins us but we're going to talk about some coaches and this

conversation started on wednesday when rie texted something to to me and producer river basically saying hey uh here's a clip of brent venables at his press conference talking about Oklahoma's GPA, is Oklahoma cooked? And I just, I laughed because that is kind of how these conversations go. But it got me to thinking, there's a bunch of fourth year coaches this year that are sort of riding the razor's edge. Now, some of them have big buyouts and they're probably not in danger of getting fired, but a couple of them are in danger of getting fired.

But they also could just have these big breakthroughs where then they never have to worry about that again. So the names here, Brent Venables at Oklahoma, Billy Napier at Florida, Lincoln Riley at USC, Brian Kelly at LSU. And I put this poll out and I said, which of these four fourth year coaches is more likely to have a breakthrough this year? And we've got about 20 hours left on the poll, but we've already got over 2,000 votes. And it seems to have settled into a fairly predictable pattern. And it's interesting because there's two guys that are definitely in the lead, and there's one guy that's definitely in the back. So Brian Kelly currently leading with 33% of the vote, Billy Napier at 30 is in second place, Venables in third at 23%.

And Lincoln Riley bringing up the rear at 14%. And it's crazy because some of this stuff is related, obviously, because Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma that caused Brent Venables to get hired. and Lincoln Riley's exit from Oklahoma was the subject of that quote that Ari sent me here is Venables during his press cards this is what Ari sent me as a football program and we had a lot of issues

you know the first year and we had guys weren't going to class we had a 2.2 team GPA and a lot of guys that didn't pass drug tests a lot and so what comes with that you know lack of motivation lack of synergy uh you know lack of again ambition and so we had and there were some you know broken

spirits too and guys that maybe weren't confident on what we could become so you know changing the mindset how we thought you know the the thinking part of it you know how we viewed ourselves you know as a man think of so is he right and so in a lot a lot of guys we didn't have this false confidence. So, I don't know it's not taking a shot anybody or, you know, I'm grateful for the players that were here and helped us kind of get to this point. But the bottom line is we needed, you know, we had to start completely over in many ways. And it's been a lot of fun too.

You know, you don't sit back and celebrate it. There's no badge of honor with it. It's getting closer to what we want. and but not where we want where we want it to be at. All right. The funniest part of this, so you sent me at one of the TV stations in Oklahoma had had cut that clip and tweeted it out. There was a USC fan underneath it who conveniently posted a graphic that USC put out

bragging about their graduation rates, who clearly didn't understand the irony. of that. I don't know what the balance is for coaches talking about issues that they faced when they took over. It's more like what's the time limit on it? Like, what's the, what's the, at what point does that not matter anymore? Because Billy Napier talked a lot about that last summer.

He's not talked about it at all this summer, but talked a lot about it last summer, too. So, yeah, because I don't doubt. And we can really talk about it a lot last summer. And I'm telling you right now, in the year of our Lord 2025 and also last year in 2024, year three is too late to be talking about that. You can't complain about that in year three. That's all your fault at that point. There has to be a balance because I don't doubt that coaches going to places face

challenges and they should be able to acknowledge those challenges publicly because it's insightful for us. But at the same time, too, using it in a way to explain lack of progress, I think, is also bad. So I don't know what it is, but it's like Oklahoma wasn't, like, maybe I'm too far away and I'm not like completely in on Oklahoma. But like, Oklahoma won a lot when he got there. Like they were, they were in the midst of winning a lot. Yeah. Now, Lincoln Riley has just taken a lot of the players, a lot of the coaches, they're really good QB1 who wound up winning in Heisman Trophy.

be like, so Oklahoma wasn't the same Oklahoma when Brent Venables got there. Yeah, but also the way that that was said kind of made me feel like that was pointing the finger at Lincoln Riley directly. Right, which you cannot do in year four. You can't do that. As producer River, by the way, he's established the statute of limitations. The statute of limitations on complaining about the previous staff and what they left you is two years. I still think that.

That's a lot. I think it's okay. But once your second year ends, you're no longer, your second season's over. You're no longer allowed to complain about that. I think you get right. I think you get right when you get there and the summer after your first year, which is one year. Okay. I think that's fair.

So it's actually about a year and a half. That's fair. I like that. That would be mine. But, you know, I just, I know that Oklahoma has some issues. but there have been coaches who have taken over much bigger dumpster fires and been better off. So I think that at a certain point, like, listen, I know that Oklahoma is a prideful place and they care a lot about GPA and having a good team of good guys who go to class

and represent the university in the right way. I think every fan base wants that. On the same, on the other end of the coin, right, the other side, no one gives a shit. Like, all they care about is whether or not you're willing to. winning games and like brenton venables knows better than anybody what the expectations are and i think it's a good segue into the question because there's actually a math formula that can answer your question oh okay give me it i come up with while you were talking we're bad at math podcast i'm going to warn you now this isn't going to be scientific this is just me trying to talk through it in a mathematical

way because we're going to do some rankings here okay and i'm going to put you on the spot and we're probably going to agree because we've been talking about the shit all summer but who are the best rosters, one through four. It's LSU or Florida at the top. Yep. And then Oklahoma and USC, probably third, USC, probably fourth. Right.

That's exactly what I was going to say. Yeah. Now, which of those four have the hardest schedules? Florida and Oklahoma. So if you do a little bit of math or whatever, average it out, LSU is your clear answer because they have one of the better rosters and they aren't getting screwed

on schedule. And when you say like their schedule is easy, Ari, we are going to their game at Clemson on Saturday for God's sake. I would take the total package for LSU over all three of those just based on circumstance of roster

and path. And another playing Clemson on the road, that's a tough game but that's not a crippling game. Oklahoma. I would take their schedule over Florida's or Oklahoma as any day. So like, and that's the, we key in on the word breakout, like, well, what does that mean? Like for Oklahoma to break out, Oklahoma would have to traverse the largest mountain of challenges to do that. So like, by the way, LSU plays Florida and Oklahoma. So they can, we're also talking to this who said that Oklahoma has a show.

shot to make the playoff. And I believe that. But I don't know if they're the most likely team in terms of the- Well, here's the thing. If LSU makes the playoff, I will bet you that Florida and Oklahoma do not, in part because of LSU making the playoff. Right. Or Florida makes the playoff. LSU does not, in part, because of Florida making the playoff. But there is a situation where three of these four teams do make the playoff. Because USC is completely unaffected by the other three. So if they have a breakout. year that doesn't have any impact on them and like Clemson can still make the playoff of LSU wins on Saturday like there's a lot of it's the Florida Oklahoma you know we know like

between those that and that second tier and I don't want to get in Tennessee trouble again with the tiers of the SEC but that second tier of the SEC like there's a lot of cross-pollinization with schedules and in talent and area and stuff where it's hard for them all to be good at once but with 12 teams, like theoretically speaking, four or five SEC teams could make it. And if they do, then it's not out of the question that three of those teams would be, especially if the other two are Alabama and Georgia, which people think is a foregone conclusion, which I'm not sure is true. But from a simple math standpoint, I would take the best roster with the most manageable schedule. Now, LSU's schedules harder than USC's, but USC, I think we both agree,

has the worst roster of the four. So I'm not going to I'm never going to say that the worst roster of the four, no matter what the schedule is. But USC has a schedule that would allow it to be competitive and potentially make the playoff. Like, if they have a good year, USC can make the playoff. And do you define breakout, is breakout in making the playoff a synonym here?

I think for what we're expecting of USC, yes. Like in year four of Lincoln Riley, we should not be, oh my God, if they have a great year, they might make the 12 team field. Like, that's not where they should be. but that ship is sailed. So now it's time for for them to start figuring out how to get where they're supposed to be.

Yeah, like if USC goes 10 and 2 but has losses to Oregon and Notre Dame that were not even, I mean, I'm saying like two possession games type thing where they were never really in it. The score might not have gotten out of hand, but you could tell, much like you could sense in the Ohio State Penn State game last year, where the game was close on scoreboard, but it wasn't very close in the competition. and they make the playoff at 10 and 2. Is that a breakout year? Yes, because they lost to Maryland last year. Yeah, it's true.

So, yes, it would be. It shouldn't be at this point. We shouldn't be considering it that way. They should be better than they are, but they're not. And so who's your answer? The answer is you've nailed it. It's Brian Kelly is the most likely, I would think. And Brian Kelly probably faces the most on that.

That's not true. Brent Fennebill's on this list. But do you think Brent and Billy Napier? Brian and Kelly and Lincoln Riley are not getting fired without cause because the schools can't pay their buyouts. Billy Napier or Brent Venables will be fired if it's unacceptable this year. Let me ask you this. Do you think that the expectations at Florida,

or at LSU, I should say, sorry, are higher than they are at Florida and Oklahoma? Yes, and they should be because they've won three national titles. the century, the last three head coaches of won national titles, they have shown, like, once Nick Saban showed you the formula at LSU, they should always be up there with the Ohio states and the Georgia's and the Alabama's and where Texas is right now. Like, they should be there constantly. Yeah. I'm not sure Florida is capable of that.

LSU is a top, given its history, right? Top four? It's up there. Yeah. so uh Oklahoma but Florida I mean look Florida with the right you've seen it with Steve Spurrier and with urban Meyer with the right coach with the right combination of talent they can be a national power too so the question is like did Billy Napier's slow build build that is he capable of governing over that yeah or did he get the right people but won't be able to put it

together and that's what this year will answer for florida i know one specific steve spurier team that won a national title had some pretty elite walk-on talent oh yeah yeah yeah i mean like matt mccown was amazing uh this guy named matt kelly art link incredible players there's another one i like willis let me know if you remember them you played them i don't know there was there was this little know-it-all slapy that that couldn't block for shit but I don't think he amounted to anything, so. He has a ring, though. That man doesn't have a ring.

Yeah. Well, I still haven't seen somehow. I had to move it because we're renovating our bathroom and it was living in a drawer in the bathroom. Do you have a safe in your house? Yes. Is the ring in the safe? No, there's a gun in the safe. That's it?

Mm-hmm. You don't put like your, like, because I'm thinking about getting a safe for my house. And I was trying to think of, like, things I would. put in that safe and I and I have a nice watch my wife has a nice watch and we have her she has a few pieces of nice jewelry but like in terms of my possessions I was thinking like social security cards and passports and then my Patrick Mahomes PSA 10 rookie card but that's a great that is a great time yeah talk about a sponsor that has rejoined us on the show Panini is back as a sponsor So I've got a prison break Julian Sayan right here.

Julian saying he'll be starting his first game against Texas for Ohio State. I got a prison break DJ Lagway right here. If you go to Panini America.net, you can look at the new Ohio State box set that they've just put out. So you can get that there. Panini is all over college football this year. they've got all the best players they're signing up teams left and right you can buy a very cool

Ohio State box set right now so Ari I know this is this was near and dear to your heart but Panini America.net I mean you're over here showing base cards can I show you some actual heat okay let's go let's go

this is a 2024 Donorous optic Jaden Daniels retro series PSA 10 rookie card that thing's a new That's a four-figure card right there. We have a 2020 Panini flawless, Jalen Hertz, rookie gem signature. There's a Sapphire in the card, and it's an on-card auto. That's a nine.

We're going to cross that over to PSA to see if we can get a better grade on that. And then here, because it's a college football show, and we're big on NIL, is my DJ Lagway draft Prisms Auto PSA 9. We're going to cross that one, too. But this is what you're looking for. You want ink on your cards. this is my gold standard jaden daniels i got a i pulled a trade card from a pack it is basically a mystery rookie it was rookie number two which may have may have correlated a draft spot because he was the second pick of the draft last year but this came in the mail after i traded it in gold standard jaden

daniels number to 99 i'm actually comping that right now uh with my fingers but yeah we got we got to get you over here because i'm a big PSA guy i i like the card and then and I grade them and put them away when they're worth something. I've got a big Mahomes card up there in that box over there. So that goes in your safe. That cards worth like, yeah, like seven grand. So I've got to like, I've got to put that away. And I've had that for a while.

So keep winning Super Bowls, Pat. I love it. That is a great segue, but I also think that I would put my national championship ring in my safe if I had one. I just don't have a national. It's interesting because, you know, back then the NCAA rules said you could only spend X number of dollars on rings so we got a national championship ring in an SEC championship ring that year they didn't they couldn't spend more than 300 bucks a piece on the rings so like the coaches got real stones and that sort of thing uh I don't know that a thief would be that interested I bet you you could get over a thousand bucks if you put that thing on eBay because they're especially if like people who know who you are I'm a nobody though that's the thing like maybe somebody who actually played. It's a novelty because you're also a very well-known personality.

So, like, that kind of adds a little bit to it. Yeah, the team that had Heisman Trophy winner, Danny Werfel, and Fred Taylor and Javon Curse. And, yeah, trust me, they ain't looking for me. All right. You know who you should be looking for. Devin Hester. All-time great, former Miami Hurricane. maybe the greatest return man in college football history.

You can join him and our guy, J.D. Pekyll, on Sunday in South Florida at the Starbucks coffee kickoff. That's right. For those of us who love college football, the fall begins the moment toe meets leather, even if it's still 90 degrees outside. For coffee lovers, fall begins the moment pumpkin returns at Starbucks. So consider this your early autumnal equinox. This week, we got football season. You got pumpkin season. and you can grab your pumpkin cream cold brew on your way to the tailgate.

That's right. On Sunday, at the Starbucks on Northwest 27th Avenue, is the coffee kickoff, J.D. Pekyll, and of course, Devin Freakin Hester, best return man to ever play. We'll be there. Live music, custom merch, plus grab your pumpkin cream cold brew. Say that five times fast. I don't care what the calendar or the thermometer said is fall now. So grab your favorite Starbucks pumpkin beverage, hot or iced,

and settle in for the greatest college football season ever. I never asked you this. Did you ever have a live rep against Javon Curse? Yes, many, many. Can you describe that to the... Well, here's the thing. I didn't get the full experience because I was already writing for the school paper by the time he got moved to defensive end,

which is where he did all of his damage. He was playing outside linebacker at the time. And Javon, running into Javon was like running into a brick wall. Because for those who don't remember, look up a picture of Javon Curse. His nickname was The Freak. And just imagine 17-year-old Andy, who's a 240-pound offensive lineman, walking in for his first practice, turning his head to his right down the sideline, and seeing Javon Curse standing there with his shirt off,

and realizing, oh, I'm not even the same species as the rest of these people. it's uh now i realize quickly he's not he's the one who's an alien everybody else was more normal than him but it was it was wild like you didn't michael angelo could not have chiseled a human being that looked like giovanni curse yeah i feel like uh it's a safety hazard but when he got moved to defensive end unblockable because he was so quick and still wade 255, 260 pounds, and just lightning fast. He was a safety in high school.

Yeah. It's no wonder he went on to have a pretty good NFL career. Yeah, he's great NFL career. Did he win one of the Titans? He got to the Super Bowl with the Titans. Wait, did he was, yes, he got to the Super Bowl with Titans, I believe, as a rookie or his second year, but they lost to the Rams. Oh.

So, yeah, it's a very interesting. like group of people like fred taylor i don't think people understand how big he is compared to how fast like this was a four three guy at at his pro day and was you know six foot one two hundred twenty pounds it's just not these are not normal human beings yeah anyway i didn't mean to derail you but we had oh no no it's i'm happy to talk about it that that was a very educational time in my life now i say we educate the people further because we had our picks show the other day. But that's me and Ari. We're not the best at picking games. So we thought we'd bring on someone who is one of the best at picking games. Tyler Shoemaker

from Veson to give you your last minute best picks for the weekend. And that includes a game that kicks off in a few hours. We are mere hours away from kickoff on Thursday night. Heck, USCF, UCF's also playing there, Jacksonville State. But USF, Boise State, kicks off at 5.30 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday night. Like, it's rolling. So to get you ready for this weekend, last minute picks the great Tyler Shoemaker, one of the excellent handicappers of the world. You can hear him on Vison.

He's already's favorite guy. And, Tyler, you want to talk Nebraska, Cincinnati, which is tonight, Thursday night, 9 p.m. So when we say last minute, we ain't kidding. Nebraska, according to about MGM, six and a half point favorite against Cincinnati in Kansas City. It's at Arrowhead Stadium. No guarantee that Taylor Swift and Cincinnati alum Travis Kelsey will be in the building, but I'm assuming. I'm assuming this will be T. Swizzle's first college game. So does that affect the line at all?

It did not play its way into my handicap. I would understand if you wanted to go that route. Just a moral boost for Cincinnati with Kelsey in the building. But no, I am on the Bearcats here. This line's kind of bounced around six and seven kind of all week here. So obviously, if you can grab a seven at some point, all the better. But I still like Cincinnati plus a six and a half. My numbers are just much lower on Nebraska, I think, than the market consensus is.

I bet Nebraska season win total under seven and a half. You know, I think Dylan Raola is a fine quarterback. I did not really like what we saw from him last year. I know he was a freshman. I am allowing room that he's going to grow this year. But here in week one, I think Cincinnati, I think this is going to be a low scoring game, too. So I would maybe lean under here as well. I think Cincinnati is going to keep it close.

You know, I think that, you know, we jump right. into the picks and I want to like back up just a minute though and say for one that we're not just having somebody on the show that does numbers and we think is pretty good at it like I have been tailing Tyler for three years and like he's excellent at it and like everybody else uh you know there are really really hot weeks and sometimes there are bad weeks but I think in the aggregate if you tail all of his plays you're going to come out on top at the end so I don't want there to be any false sense of like if I take 20 games because he has like 24 plays out there like you're going to go 20 and four like you know at times you know it ebbs and flows but the thing that

I love about Tyler more than anything Andy um is that like in podcast form you and I cover narrative like we talk about Dylan Rayola we talk about Matt Rule year three we talk about all these different things that you know exist in the Nebraska atmosphere and like what Tyler does isn't about narrative it's all data it's all roster it's all you know numbers and as the season goes on i believe that those numbers and tyler i don't want to speak for you become more refined because the more data you have to work with the more precise your your data can be um and like that's the thing that i think is so interesting about this game specifically tyler like i got crucified on monday for putting out Cincinnati in this game because everybody from a narrative standpoint thinks year three

Matt Rule, you know, Dane Key, Dylan Raola is going to be a Heisman finalist, like all these things. They've got a great advantageous path. You see Nebraska popping up in potential college football playoff scenarios. And I don't think that like the opener on a Thursday night on a neutral field, like that's what the numbers say in your mind. Can you like break down a little bit more how you arrive at these plays and why it separates what we think as fans and commentators and analysts from like what the actual raw numbers say.

Yeah, I mean, I talk all the time about the difference between rankings and ratings. And I think I think fans, because we're so used to like the AP poll era, you know, of rankings, I think we get so caught up and like, well, so you see a spread like, okay, Nebraska's only six and a half point favorites over Cincinnati. Where would they be ranked? you know Nebraska might be you know by some polls the top 25 team or top 40 team or whatever or a Cincinnati fall in that but the rating the way I define rating is it's the nuance in between the rankings so you can have it you can have two teams that are ranked 30 spots apart but their rating might only be four points different and I think that is kind of the crux

of what I do is help get those details in between the rankings so you know you look at two brands like this. And it's like, well, of course you're going to bet Nebraska minus six and a half against Cincinnati, right? But the data says no. The nuance in between the numbers says that these teams are much closer than that. Well, and that's the interesting part, Tyler, because I was looking at some of the advanced stats predictions for this game. And I saw a lot of them kind of fell between three and a half and four and a half for Nebraska. Is that what you're looking for? You're looking for the discrepancy between your number and the spread. Yep. Yep. That's exactly right.

I project Nebraska minus three and a half here on the neutral field. So exactly like you said, Andy. So when I'm looking through games, I'm looking, okay, I've got my projections, which are done completely independently of looking at the spreads. Actually, on a weekly basis, have my numbers updated before the spreads come out. So you're like Kirby Smart when he says we don't look at the recruiting rankings. We have our own evaluation. Yeah.

You know, I tend to drive the speed limit, but yeah, I'm a little bit like Kirby Smart. I got a speeding ticket in Vail last week and I'm really upset about it and I tried to call and pay it and they're like, sorry, it's not in her system yet. I was like, you don't want my money. Sorry, I don't mean to take it. It doesn't make any sense. But the thing that I always come back to with Tyler's numbers and the reason why I play them and like, you have to give me some credit. I've never given you crap once, even when things don't go well.

And the reason why is because if you had a 70% chance of winning a coin flip, how much money would you bet? I would bet thousands of dollars if I had a 75% or 70% chance at a 50% proposition because you want to get your money on the table when you have the best of it. So if your number says three and a half for Cincinnati or four and you're getting six and a half or, you know, buying it up to seven if that's the type of person you are, you might not win the bet, but I feel like I have my money out onto the table in a better proposition than the numbers would indicate, which is the entire point of what we're doing here. Like Tyler can't predict whether or not Cincinnati muffs a punt inside its own four yard line and watching college football, crazy stuff like this happens all the time, right? It's an infuriating sport if you're betting on it because crazy stuff happens every quarter of every game. But if the data says that this spread should be three points and I can get seven, why wouldn't I do that?

That's my viewpoint on it. Well, and Tyler, I'm curious, how hard is this to do when the rosters change as much as they do now? Because you're talking about you do try to take into account transfers and new personnel, but there's no guarantee that somebody is going to put up similar numbers to where. they were last year for better or worse. So like we talk about Dane Key with Nebraska. Do we assume he's going to be what he was at Kentucky? Or is it possible he's better or is it possible he's worse? Yeah. And it's gotten harder. Obviously with with the way the transfer portal has just opened up over the last, you know, three years or so. My process now is different than it was five

years ago just because five years ago I could really just import the recruiting rankings. I have my own development score, which is based on what your power rating ended up relative to what your recruiting rankings were. So it gives credit to a team like Iowa or something that really develops well, as opposed to just looking at the recruiting rankings. But yeah, these last couple of years, it's been much, much harder. And I do in the preseason, the only time I really look at what the market's doing is in the preseason, because if I come up with my numbers and then I'm, you know, four games off of a season win total on a team, it makes me take a second look. And I do, you know, try to bridge that gap a little tighter with the market.

But as the season goes on, that becomes less and less relevant. And it's more about what you're doing on the field. And I think that's where my numbers do give us an advantage. Like Ari said, as the season goes on, because I'm weighing less and less the fact that you've got Georgia on your jersey and more and more the fact of, you know, how many points per player are you getting and that sort of thing. So these are your last minute picks. You also may decide at the last minute you want to go to a game. So the next game we're going to talk about is Alabama,

Florida State in Tallahassee. It's a fairly big spread, but you think because it's a fairly big spread, it's not a tough ticket. It's actually a pretty tough ticket, but you can get tickets on game time, download the app, redeem the code staples for $20 off your first purchase terms apply, of course. But the way it works is you just type in floor state football because the games at Don't Campbell Stadium. And all of a sudden, you see all of the seats that are available.

You're talking about more than $200, but here's the thing. you see that $220 ticket that I would look at on game time and the B-roll, that's the cost. There's not an extra $75 worth of fees at the end of that. They're showing you what the price will be when you want to get into that game. And so if you want to hit Florida State Alabama, you can hit that game. If you would like to see Texas play at Ohio State in the horseshoe, you're welcome in the stadium. Dave Portnoy might not be. You are.

Just go to Game Time. Download the app. redeem the code staples $20 off your first purchase terms apply of course all right let us go to tallahassee where Alabama will be playing florida state we got a little news on that game yesterday uh Alabama has an injury on the defensive line uh defensive tackle tim keenan is probably out for this game uh our bretman murphy reported that yesterday Tyler, how do we feel about Alabama, Florida State, and a, you know, near two touchdown line? It is also a total of 50 and a half, which just had a defensive injury, so that comes into play.

Yeah, so my numbers on this game, I have Alabama minus 14 and a half. So you think, okay, well, that's just a one point discrepancy from the line, but. 14 is a key number in college football, or at least a somewhat key number. So I would lean Alabama here. Florida State is just so hard because coming into like last year, they were rated so highly in everyone's numbers. You know, the market, my numbers, everywhere you look, Florida State was really high. And it took forever.

I don't know that my numbers ever caught up. Ari finally was like, all right, dude, I'm not betting Florida State anymore. Stop giving it too much. Remember how I alluded to the fact that I'm not on Florida State seven times last year? You're looking at their person who's responsible for that. It is the fault of the guy who did. didn't eat the dog poop. I think we admit that. I know this has been an argument on the internet. I'm going to settle this argument right now. The dog poop curse does not transfer

season to season. So you sure? Yes. That's just the rules, man. Like floor state, you're in the clear on that. Now, if somebody decides to have another dog poop bet and doesn't follow through, then that will affect you this season. But as long as nobody does that, I think you're fine. Yeah, at some point on the show, we have to talk about that bar stool guy, that Ohio State fan that came up with like stakes for every game on the schedule because I found that to be quite funny. But going back to the Florida State, Alabama thing for a second, I want to make sure that, you know, Tyler is well understood because if he's going to be on the show regularly, I want people to get it. So you look at the discrepancy in your numbers, but you also

read, you know, the betting markets, the way the line is moving, the action percentages, all these things. And like, this was not a play for you because, A, the discrepancy wasn't big, but B, we're not unsure of what Florida State is, but see, like, how much do you, like, look and see, like, what the sharp money is doing? And it's like, it's not, and I don't want to speak for you, but you don't put out a play just because there's a discrepancy. You also look at other key factors behind the scenes of, like, how the markets are

reacting to this game before you decide. like which ones are your best bets or which ones you want to give out, right? Yeah, for sure. And I mean, a lot of times, so there's what's called top down betting, which is where you're just trying to beat the market and you're just trying to get, you know, if you see the market's moving one way, you just try to grab that number because you know you're going to get closing line value.

That's a betting strategy that a lot of people employ. That's part of my strategy, but also I'm an originator because I make my own numbers, which is kind of the other way to bet. You either, a lot of times you either have originators or you have top down betting. I kind of blend the two where, yes, I'm going to rely on my numbers, but also if I see the market moving a certain way, that, you know, that can put me on or off of a bet. In this case, with the total in this game,

I've actually got the total projected at 45 points. So, you know, at Bet NGM, the over under is 50.5. I also saw some sharp books moving that number down to 49.5. So I grabbed 50.5 while it stands here today on Thursday. Yeah. and betting unders is the worst possible experience as a better

because no one likes doing it but Tyler seems to be quite fine to them for some reason and it's interesting because we haven't seen it really we don't know what Kalin DeBoer's personality is on this at Alabama

I mean we saw him at Washington obviously Nick Sabin was not a big run up the score on people kind of person he'd get a lead and just kind of sit on it so I don't know how Kalin DeBoar will handle this if Alabama jumps out to a big lead.

But again, that's part of the fun of all this, is we just don't know. And this game, I'm fascinated by this game just because Thomas Castellanos couldn't keep his mouth shut for the entire offseason. And, you know, if he's right, hey, that's great. But if he's wrong, oh, my God. It's potentially very ugly. Yeah, I mean, that would be an angle, you know,

if you don't want to take the game under because you think, well, my God, Alabama might score 50 by themselves. Then you can play the Florida State under, you know, in hopes that they just, the Alabama suffocates Florida State, which I think, you know, is possible. We'll see. I think I don't think Kailen DeBore really is in a position to worry about people's feelings. I think, you know, he's got to kind of prove himself there to the faithful in Tuscaloosa this year.

My favorite thing about you, Tyler, is that you don't think about any of this stuff. You just do numbers. Because I feel like when you start thinking about narrative and what will this person do in this situation, or are they going to run it up or all those things like you lose track of the plot which is like the numbers are created with data so you should use data to make your picks not your mind and i you know like for me personally like i'm on cincinnati i'm on cincinnati in real life and i'm on cincinnati on the show and on three graphics and on ridiculed online i hate it i think nebraska is probably like in from a narrative standpoint i think nebraska's going to win by 14 or more that's how andy picked like i think we'd think about the game the same way but like i'm just like blindly trusting that the data will bear out and hopefully it does 60% of the time this year but who knows we'll see uh i can't wait to watch this game there's one more andy there is one more and it's one we've talked about a couple times on the show already it's it's an interesting scheduling situation you know this is this is sort of how it works for

miss where you got to do these two for ones so they are going to southern miss and if they were going to Southern Miss this time last year, that 13 and a half point spread, we'd be like, take that all day, take Mississippi State all freaking day. But this is a different situation. Southern Miss has a new coach in Charles Hoff. He just won the Sunbelt at Marshall, but he got sideways with Marshall's administration way before last season. You knew he wasn't coming back. Even though he won the league, they wouldn't bring him back. So he goes to the place that was last in the league last year. But this being the era of player movement, a healthy chunk of the Marshall roster followed

him, which, Tyler, that makes this game unbelievably interesting as Mississippi State, which also has a very revamped roster, comes down to Hattiesburg. Yeah, this is one, Southern Miss as a team, obviously this is all projection because we have no like real data on those players in Southern Miss uniform. forms. Like you said, you know, last year at Marshall, they, they won the conference, Braylin Braxton Player of the Year, the quarterback for Southern Miss. I only project this game, Mississippi State minus four and a half. And even looking at some of the other models, you know, around SP Plus, FPI, some of those, the average of those that I look at was

only Mississippi State minus 10. So I really like getting 13 here, 13 and a half, I think some places if you shot. But I think I think I bet MGM it was plus 13. I mean, I think this is a case where you could maybe sprinkle a little bit on the Southern Miss money line. And if I'm right on Southern Miss and they're going to be as transformed from last year's abysmal team as I think they might be, they might just show up and win the game here. Again, I'm not, I'm not calling for that necessarily. But if you wanted to sprinkle a little bit on a huge money line, this would probably be the game to do so. But yeah, I like Southern Miss plus 13 here.

I will be shocked if they come out flat. at, especially at home against, you know, an SEC school like Mississippi State and lay an egg. Yeah, well, this is the second person who has come on to the show, Andy, and sung the value that you could get with Southern Miss. Like Colin Wilson from the Action Network was like, hammer them to win the conference and hammer them in every win total number you can find. And it's like it almost was like Vegas didn't catch up to what happened to their roster, which is kind of a bizarre thing to me.

It's interesting because they usually are pretty quick on this stuff, but I don't know. When you go downstream, the programs that don't get as much attention, maybe that's what it is. Because I do think they have, they probably caught up now, but I don't think they've done it yet. I don't think they did it immediately. Like as soon as you,

saw spring practice what southern miss brought from marshall you got to recalibrate yeah you would you would think but i mean there's their season one total only being at five and a half for for most of the summer was crazy to me i definitely bet that i actually got it uh over five and a half at i think plus one 25 odd so i got plus money on over five and a half wins for them which i think i mean that that's probably my my favorite bet uh that i made this summer this is this is going to be so much fun that that game noon on Saturday in Hattiesburg. So Corso does his last headgear pick, and that's the game it goes to. Now, everybody else is going to be watching Texas, Ohio State, but

why? Put that second screen on Mississippi State Southern Miss, ladies and gentlemen. Tyler, thank you so much, and we will talk to you again very soon. Of course. Appreciate it, guys. That is Tyler Shoemaker. That came in Hattiesburg. We've been talking about it for a few months.

So I can't wait to see how it turns out. Now, and maybe the Mississippi State fans are right, and the Bulldogs just head down there and clobber the Eagles. But I don't know, man. This could be Southern Miss to the top. I have 24 plays out there this week because of Tyler. If you're interested in it, these are, Andy calls them last minute.

They're last minute because we're adding them onto the show at the last minute, but these are his best numbers that he's found in his data that we gave you. But he has 24 plays, and I'm, like, locked in on all these. So good luck, BetMGM. I hope I don't have to, you know, sign over anything to you from personal possessions. That would have gone into my safe. But, you know, this is the best time of year because you get to enjoy it, but you get to have some skin in the game.

And BetMGM is where you should do it. So thanks, Tyler. and we're looking forward to having you on regularly this season. Before we get to your questions, because we have some really good dear Andy, dear Ari questions, I do want to address Lee Corso's last college game day episode is coming up on Saturday from Columbus.

Not many people have provided as much joy to college football fans around the world as Lee Corso. His enthusiasm was just incredible. And, you know, when he was coaching Indiana, who could have imagined? that he would become an absolute icon in the sport. And he'd be putting on mascot heads for decades. Not so fast, sweetheart.

All right, all right. What do we think? So there's only two choices here. The first mascot head he ever put on was Brutus Buckeye. So does he end it the way he began? Or is it Hookham? Not Bivo. Bivo is the live mascot.

Hookham is the costume mascot for Texas. So who's it going to be, Brutus or hook him? He's going to pick Brutus because A, it's too, right? I mean, I think you basically have to because A, it's the first one he ever put on his head and he was right. And secondly, you're celebrating a glorious career in television, a glorious career in general. I mean, people forget that he was a coach. And I think that what you want on your way out is to be cheered. You don't want to be booed.

you know like while you're he would get booed mercilessly if he goes with that one maybe that's just uh maybe that's just kind of his shit too i don't know i think he's in a pick ohio state pick the home favorite owed to the original one i think it makes sense but um we did talk about this before the show and i am kind of like laughing at it uh somebody tracked le corso's um data for all of his headgear picks he is 286 and 144 with a 66.5% clip of success. Now, there's two ways of looking at this one. He's betting straight up or picking straight up. These are all good games.

So the spreads are not big in most of these games. Yeah, but if a lot of them are like one and a half point spreads, like the one that he's going to be picking on Saturday, then he gets some credit for it. But if you are watching on YouTube, there is an entire grid of all the ones that he's done, which is almost 500. and yeah what a wonderful career and we'll certainly be watching just because you know if you're

like me or even Andy to a certain extent like my childhood you know was defined by watching this show going into a Saturday like I he is synonymous with the game and I think he should be celebrated so um you know congratulations so I hope he starts to put on the hookum head and he goes ah get out of here and throws it yeah like that's what you got to do yeah um what a wonderful tradition. They're not going to bleep him on his last show. Like they're just going to let the F-bomb fly. And I'm also like really happy that ESPN isn't continuing the tradition,

like that there's no one else doing it. Don't need to do it anymore. You've got you've got Pat McAfee to do wacky things, but you also have Nick Sabin as the ex-coach who's going to give you analysis. You really can't get anywhere else. I mean, like, Sabin was as good on TV as you could have possible. imagined him to be and I can't wait to see what he looks like in year two because just from talking to people who work at ESPN he preps for that show the way he prepped

for games as a coach like he'll wear some people out backstage trying to get all the info formula for being successful isn't about the activity it's about the process and he seems to be the type of person that is pretty loyal to that process so good for him and good for Lee and I'm excited to watch this all right yeah we we talked about the other pregame show a lot earlier this week. So I figure it was only fair that we talk about the one that's going to get the bigger audience. So all right, let us move to your questions. Dear Andy and dear Ari, it is mailback time. First question comes from Chase. Chase sent me a spreadsheet. I'm not going to show you that. Probably not going to read the whole email either, but Chase does

make a good point. Dear Andy and Ari, I've been listening to your podcast since the athletic days, but I've never written in. Recently, you and many other media members have spoken glowingly about Utah and their prospects for the upcoming season citing their elite offensive line and transfer quarterback Devon Dampere. I agree that they will probably have an elite offensive line this year, but every time this is discussed, there is seemingly no mention of their passing game, which looks pretty alarming. In 2004, Utah threw for 199 receptions, 2,393 yards, and 20 TDs.

That's not very good, by the way. Of that production, they only returned two players who caught a pass, totaling 12 receptions, 163 yards, and zero touchdowns. In addition, they brought in 10 potential. pass catchers from the portal who combined last year for 126 receptions, 1,429 yards, and 15 TDs. Also not good. If you combine returning production and their transfer production, you get 138 receptions, 1,592 yards, and 15 touchdowns.

And of course, some of those players may have more opportunity with Utah in 2025 and improve those stats, but the majority of those are coming from group of five programs to a new offensive system and a step up in competition. Ari, I think Chase makes a good point here. is it possible we are overestimating Utah and what they will be because we do think Devin Dampere will be good on the ground. He ran for 1,100 yards last year at New Mexico, but we've said we don't know what happens with the passing game.

And maybe that's an Achilles heel. Yeah, I'd love to know who the listener roots for because that's a lot of research. BYU, got to be BYU. Yeah. My notion of Utah, and I'm assuming that you are on the same page with me on this, is that Utah will, because one of your bold predictions was that they'll play in the Pac-12, or God. It's okay. It's never going to go, you guys, on that has not run out yet.

Big 12 championship game, right, was one of your bold predictions. Yes, it was. And I assume that you probably have them in that position as a result of them being a very great defensive team and a team that runs well, right? Yes. Like, I don't know if it's predicated on, you know, looking like, if they can throw the ball all around the yard, then I probably am underestimated. I probably should say they're going to win the Big 12.

Yeah. I don't think that either of us were under the notion or the impression that they were going to air it out a lot. My hope for Utah's offense, if they, you know, get to where they want to go, is that the past game is opened up by the running threat from the quarterback and a good running game with running backs in a solid offensive line and they have one of the best offensive linemen in the country who has a wonderful, beautiful voice.

Spencer Fenno. And I do think that that should help them throw the ball. Like if you think that they're going to look like Michigan last year, I think that that's wrong. But I will point out they're from 2020 or whatever year was. Their most productive incoming transfer receiver is Ryan Davis who played in New Mexico last season with Devon Dampier. Yeah.

He's not changing offenses. His offensive coordinator came over. So, like, they came kind of as a package. So you do have that. The other guy I got a tip on a few weeks ago that I'm very curious about, and it's not because he had a huge year last year, is a guy named Larry Simmons, who's from Mississippi originally. He played for Southern Miss last year,

originally signed with Ole Miss at a high school. He had 27 catches for 421 yards last year. It's not a huge year at Ole Miss, but I'm sorry, it's Southern Miss. But Southern Miss, as we talked about with Tyler, was really bad last year. So this is a 6-1-190-pound guy. It sounds like they're pretty excited about him, too. So that's the thing.

I will see who we get there. Interestingly enough, that spread is now, Utah, UCLA is the very, very late game on Saturday night. Utah is a five-and-a-half-point favorite. I believe that means it's moving toward UCLA because wasn't Utah a six-and-a-half point before that? I think it's seven at one point, I think. Yeah, but I was a good question, and I think that stats can be concerning, but I don't know that stats tell the whole story because, like, what you just said, you won't find in the numbers.

But that's the problem with trying to guess anything, is we don't really know how somebody's going to do in a different environment because they might get better, they might get worse. It's very hard to predict. Yep. Yep. But great question. Great research.

Appreciate it. all right next question is our friend stephen san antonio if i can find stephen san antonio's question there it is want me to read it i got it regarding clemson on behalf of the entire world that made me laugh by the way on behalf of the entire world okay we love that though who doesn't i promise you i'm not trying to be a negative nellie here based on yours and others in the media's discussion of Clemson for this upcoming season, they should be very good, maybe national title good. I don't doubt you, but it seems Dabo and Clemson have been taking a victory lap since the end of last season saying, see my strategy and vision for running a program

still works. Andy, isn't it the system that has gotten so much easier for teams to claim success rather than Dabo's way of doing things magically working again? The bar has been lured significantly, whereas it used to be only four teams could claim elite status. Now it's 12 and it's soon to be 16. Under the quote-unquote new current system and Clemson being the ACC, they're set up nicely for the foreseeable future and should be in the playoff every year set me straight which is it so i've got it okay you go it's bubbling inside of me go go let it out steve well steve i love you and i'm happy you're here thanks for the question uh i think on this show and i speak for both of us that our we didn't celebrate clemson's season last year if that's clempson ceiling then i think

making the playoff, like you asserted, is actually not enough. I think that Clemson can say, I told you so if they not only make the playoff, but beat teams that are similarly situated to win the national title. Because last year's Clemson, you know, Dabo, when he comes on our show and when he talks to the media, I'll tell you they won the ACC and they did this and they did that. You know what else they did? They got their ass kick to start the season by Georgia and they got their ass kick to end the season by Texas. In order for Dabo to take a victory

lap, I think he has to win those games. or be competitive in those games and show that his team could actually win a championship. So while I do agree with the fact that the bar has been lowered in college football, to be successful, you can claim playoff appearances in conference championships in a way that you probably couldn't three years ago as a result of the larger field. Clemson is not being judged or celebrated for making the playoff. Clemson's standard was to win national championships. They did it twice under his leadership doing it this way.

And I will continue to say that Clemson has fallen. off as a program if the trend of getting their ass kicked every time they play a team that uses the portal and recruits at a high level and is actually good enough to win the national championship this still might not work like i don't think that like there's any victory lapse happening right now from our standpoint like dabbo might do it but he's the coach he's always going to promote his own program but for me the most interesting storyline about clemson this season is whether or not his old-fashioned way will still work enough to beat the teams that we think can win the national title.

Yeah, and I'll tell you where I saw the growth, because you mentioned they lost to Georgia and they lost to Texas. The difference between the loss to Georgia and the loss to Texas is the offense was non-functional against Georgia. The offense was actually humming a little bit against Texas, which had a really good defense and was at home. But the defense schematically was just horrendous. All Texas had to do was handoff to just keep scoring.

We didn't celebrate Clemson last year. I think they fixed that with Tom Allen. Do we celebrate them? We celebrated a little bit, but we also explained the reasons why we think this is, there's two things. One is the bar for how much talent you have to have is Lord to compete for national title because of the system. What's interesting is, we said Dabo has to change because the system is changed.

Dabo goes, I don't have to change. Maybe Dabo was right. because dabo is looking at what the system was going to do to everybody else that said and dabbo can say we use the transfer portal a couple years ago all he wants dabbo used it in any meaningful way this year he got four players they're all four going to start they're all going to be important players and they were in areas they needed to fill and here's the galaxy brain part of the discussion if the transfer portal era would have happened but the expansion of the playoff wouldn't have and there were no automatic bids for winning the ACC, would he still be able to do this?

Like that's the thing. Like the interesting thing about Clemson and the reason why I'm in awe of what he built there is because he won national titles in beat Bama and Ohio State. state on the biggest stage with the entire country watching with a team that never recruited at that same level during a time in which your recruiting rankings told the whole story. He was the absolute exception to the rule. And I'm going to tell you my favorite stat that I've told you five times a year for the past five years, Andy. There were three teams in the modern era of recruiting rankings between 2020 or 2000 and 2022 that won national titles without having signed a top five class in any of the previous four years. two of them were Clemson and one was the Auburn Cam Newton team so like that to me was impressive

but now Dabo can continue to build his teams the way he always had but the the level of which they need to be great is diminished because none of the teams that they're going to face in the playoff are going to be nearly as good as the 2018 Alabama team that they beat was so like that that changed that so like to me you can't have it both ways he refused to change

in the transfer portal era but the transfer portal era is also the reason why the elite level teams aren't going to exist anymore so like there's kind of weird do we need to give some credit for seeing that coming

and realizing that if he stayed the course the way he's doing it because the advantage that he feels he has and we'll see but we've talked about this with him we've talked about it with regard to how Billy Napier saved his job last year is that

rosters with a bunch of guys who've played together maybe can handle adversity a little better. Yeah, or did he, do you think that he discovered this, or do you think he stumbled upon it? Could be stumbled. Because the thing that I...

Could be stubbornness ended up working out in his favor. Right, because his teams were bad for Clemson standard for three or four years as a result of the stubbornness. So, like, he might be able to come out of the other side of the tunnel and say, hey, look, I told you so.

But, you know, he wouldn't have designed his teams to not be able to compete with the best in the country on purpose. So, like, it's like that, he refused to change, but then the change impacted the sports so much that his refusal to change actually happened to work. Like, I don't know if you want to say. Are we saying a broken clock is right twice a day? But I'm saying, like, is he a genius for never changing or did him never changing lead to three below average Clemson teams in comparison to what they,

they were before that, and then it happened to work out. Like, I don't know which one you think it is. I don't know if this was all part of the master plan or if so much change occurred in such a small amount of time that actually not changing at all is beneficial. I'll let you decide that as the listener, which one you think it is. Well, I think we need to see.

Like, they're going to play LSU Saturday. That will be a very important data point. If Clemson beats LSU 35 to 20, do we think that this was the master plan from the beginning no, I don't. I think it happens to work out. But also, you get credit for it working out. Like, that's, the sport is different now. And Clemson is still, the only thing we care about isn't the process. It's the results. And if the process was flawed, but the result still turns into Clemson being an annual national championship contender, then who gives a shit whether it was or not? Exactly. Exactly. Next question from Christopher in Phoenix. Actually, Chris in Phoenix.

please please start a counter for every time ri says grab ass producer river i think we can handle that i think we can get a tote board going so uh that is your icon on the bottom left did you just that is your that is your project for the weekend uh we need a grab ass tote board it actually comes out a hell of a lot more when we're analyzing the games that happened because that's when the grab ass can like really comes out yeah that's one perfect perfect perfect scoreboard noise I love it. Survey sets! All right.

One more, and this is from Aaron, and I cannot thank you. And if I get choked up reading this, I'm sorry. Hi, guys, I just wanted to reach out and say thanks so much for the show and the insight that you all give every day. I've never reached out before, but I've been a daily listener since the early days y'all started together at the Athletic. My wife and I moved across Texas back to the Houston area about a month ago, and four days later we got the call about our son. who we're adopting. We Baby is currently in the NICU, which is the natal intensive care unit. So there's been a ton of late nights and drives to and from home to him, about an hour apart.

You guys in the show have been pretty much the one piece of consistency in my life during this time. It sounds silly, but having y'all to listen to and college football look forward to have really helped me keep from getting too overwhelmed and have given me some normalcy in the middle of all this transition. I've gotten to listen to some episodes overnight with my son and the NICU, so we're trying to get him started early on his college football fandom. I really appreciate you all on the show. I know it's a small thing.

It's made a huge difference for me in this season, my family this season and my family are in right now. Keep up the great work and gig him, Aaron and Dayton, Texas. Aaron, thank you so much and good luck. And I hope you and your son get to watch some games together.

And I just thank you. And that means the world. We're thinking about you, man. Yeah. It means a lot to us. You know, it's interesting because my entire life is basically professionally rooted around taking criticism and insults from people. So it is really, really nice to hear that we have positive impacts on the silent few or majority, hopefully.

And the thing is, we're not, we know we're not changing the world here. But if we can help make your day a little better, I hope we can. I hope that's what we do. So ugly maurice told me this when I was young because like I'm married to somebody who has a real job. You're married to somebody who has a real job. And there's doctors and firefighters and people who have real intensive police officers, people who put their life on the line for their work to make the world a better place. And obviously with what happened in our country on Wednesday, you know,

you can't say enough how thankful you are to the people who respond. And I always kind of felt bad about that. Like whenever I would, people would ask me like, what I do for a living, I'd always be like, I talk about sports, I guess. And like, as grateful and as exciting as that is for me, like when you start like sitting next to a doctor or somebody who actually makes a real difference, that can be kind of self-conscious, self-driving of a self-conscious feeling. But then Doug told me this when I was really young and I forgot about it.

You know that were the people that the doctors who are helping people listen to, to like bring Lebanon for their day? And to a certain extent, you know, you are helping the people who actually do those things and go through tough times, whether it be professionally or personally, get through those. And that made me feel good. So I hope that's the case. And whenever I read and see things like this, few and far between, but they move me. And I think that we both agree that we're very thankful to each and every one of you who write in and even though the ones won't. And without you, we couldn't do this. And hopefully we make a small difference in your life too. So thank you. for that and it's a really nice thing to read and see going into the weekend well and it is a great weekend this is the best weekend of the year it's week one you are if you if you listen to this show the moment it dropped guys you're like an hour away from football maybe two hours it's a bad at math podcast but depends where you live i guess what if you're in hawaii it's coming out now let's go we'll talk to you actually we'll probably talk to you after the nebraska

in Cincinnati game. Who are we kidding? Ari and I can't stop. 20% chance I'm going to be drunk for that. So we're going to a buddy's birthday today that we're going to celebrate during and before the game. So I might be a little sauced up, but just that might be

a feature of the show now that we're sponsored by Modelo. So let's go. We'll talk to you soon.