Andy & Ari On3 - WHO MAKES THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF? | Alabama beats Georgia, Texas rolls, Florida State is 13-0

Episode Date: December 3, 2023

It's time to play selection committee -- and thank goodness we aren't on the REAL committee -- and try to pick the four teams for the College Football Playoff after Alabama beat Georgia and introduced chaos to the selection.Michigan and Washington look to be in. But what about the other two? s 13-0 ACC champ Florida State a lock? Does the Texas head-to-head win against Alabama in Tuscaloosa in September guarantee the Longhorns get in ahead of Alabama? Would the committee put Texas and Alabama in the field and leave out Florida State?Andy and Jesse Simonton debate. But at least they don't have to make the real decision.Subscribe to On3! ⬇️ youtube.com/on3sports/Welcome to On3 | The best of college football and recruiting https://www.on3.com/Listen to Andy Staples On3 on podcast! Spotify 🎧 : https://open.spotify.com/show/5AhQ4d2m5TQu5Q2vkwtxjt?si=uLK1rMW7QOmLHcZK9URbOwApple🍎: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/andy-staples-on3/id1695325427Follow Andy Staples on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Andy_StaplesFollow Andy Staples on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/andy_staplesFollow us on Twitter https://twitter.com/on3sportsFollow us on Instagram https://www.instagram.com/on3/?hl=en Like/Follow us on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/On3Sports/ Shop On3 https://shop.outsider.com/

Welcome to Andy Staples on E. It is time to pick the playoff. Jesse Simonton, welcome aboard. We are very lucky, Jesse, in that we don't actually have to decide who makes the playoff. That is not our responsibility. There are people who are in a lovely hotel in Grapevine, Texas, who will actually make that decision. But we can give them some suggestions. You know what, Andy? After this kind of wild weekend, I'm just imagining Boo Corum eating all the lettuce he can get his mouth on right now because the man's going to be absolutely speaking some word salads tomorrow

to explain whatever decision this committee comes to. I know there's a lot of debate and discourse right now on Twitter. It's certainly on fire with folks of all different teams kind of arguing who should and shouldn't be in.

But like you said, we don't have to decide. We can just make some suggestions. All right. Well, we'll be on our hands. Exactly. All right. Well, it won't be on our hands. Exactly. All right. This is not going to be a super long show tonight, guys, because this isn't going to last very long. By 1221 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday, you will know who's in the playoff.

So we're just going to hash it out a little bit. We're going to see if we can come to an agreement. All right. Jesse, I'm going to give you the floor. Give me your four. My four. Now, is this mine or what I think the committee is going to do? I want to hear yours first and then I want and then we'll

do mine and then we'll talk about what we think the committee is going to do. Okay my four would be Michigan, Washington, Texas, and Alabama. Okay and in that order. In that order and I'm leaving honestly Andy I'm leaving two teams out there because Florida state should absolutely feel shafted if they don't make it because they're an undefeated conference champ. And yes, you shouldn't penalize a team for being down to its third string quarterback. And they were gritty and gutsy as hell tonight, that defensive performance, but by the Knowles, Adam Fuller's unit,

just damn impressive. I mean, seven sacks against Louisville. Their backs were against the wall the whole game. They knew they had to get stops, and they did it every time. But Michigan would sign up for them 10 out of 10 times, and they would turn down Alabama 10 out of 10 times. And so I give the nod to the Tide because the Tide beat the Bulldogs. And Kirby Smart's right.

You were there in the press conference tonight, Andy. He's right. They're one of the best four teams. But despite Boo Corrigan and Bill Hancock and others insisting otherwise, that's not how the committee has ever done this. This is not a power rankings. It is a resume rankings. And Georgia lost tonight when in a crowded field they couldn't afford to.

And so while I do think they're one of the best four teams and no one would want to face them just like your blind test, they don't get in. So my four, again, Michigan, Washington, Texas at three, Alabama at four. That's who I would roll with. All right. What do you think? Well, I'll give you my four.

Who do you got? Now it's yours. All right. Yeah. So this is going to be anticlimactic because my four is also your four. Michigan. Now, I'm not entirely sure Michigan should be number one over Washington. I think that's a,

I think that's a great debate because they now have, I think absolutely Andy I'm up for that argument because even though Washington has seven, one score wins on the season, this is Michigan's offense. And I mean like they basically, if the playoff goes, how would I think it's going to go or how the playoff goes how I think it's going to go,

or how the 14 feels how I think it's going to go, Michigan basically got a layup tonight against Iowa and may get a layup against Florida State, should they be the beneficiary of such good fortune. So this is my question here. Let's say Michigan and Washington are in whatever order you want. Then you've got Florida state 13 and Oh, Texas 12 and one Alabama, 12 and one Georgia is 12 and one.

Now I said, I said this week, if Texas messed around, didn't look very good, that there might be a chance that, that Alabama and Georgia both got in. If Alabama one, I don't, that's not be a chance that Alabama and Georgia both got in if Alabama won. That's not the case.

Texas blew out Oklahoma State. Texas is probably in. And I think you have to put Texas in over Alabama because they played. And Texas beat them on the road by 10. Now, I had somebody ask me this at the SEC Championship game tonight, Jesse. This was after the game. This is one of the high-muckety-mucks asked me, so if Alabama had played a MAAC team instead of Texas,

is Alabama in the playoff easily? Like, are we having a conversation, an argument at all? Of course not. Alabama would probably be in ahead of Texas because of reputation and everything else. So I don't like the idea of anything that cools playing good non-conference games. Now, I realize that would be a conference game next year. And I think changing the system next year also will take care of that because you don't have to go undefeated anymore.

It won't matter. In that scenario, Andy, I think Georgia gets in over Texas. I think you're right. That's exactly what he said. As Greg said, he was walking out. Yeah, as Greg said, he was walking out tonight. That's what I said to him. I said if Texas had scheduled Ole Miss or Missouri or any other SEC team

instead of Alabama, Alabama and Georgia would be in the playoff tomorrow. Yeah, because especially when you look at how the game, I mean, Georgia was uncharacteristically sloppy tonight. Miss a field goal, turn the ball over inside the red zone, season high in penalties. You have all sorts of play. I think they were down by the end, you know, five or six starters. And yet, you lose by three points on a neutral site you know to in this

hypothetical if Alabama played a Mac team a non-defeated team Georgia would absolutely be in but you they can't be because because the Tide and Longhorns did play great point by Chad in the chat if you use the Bama should have scheduled a Mac team argument, then you can't pick Bama over Florida state who scheduled LSU and Florida in the non-conference. So that is a great counter argument to that fantastic counter argument by chat. So I, this is, this is the thing. And like the Florida state thing, I'll get to why I don't think they'll pick Florida state, but I think if we're thinking about this from a standpoint of what have you done, what have you overcome, winning with a third-string quarterback in the ACC championship game, a true freshman starting his first game,

and having that dominant defensive performance, that actually speaks very well of Florida State. I know people are going to say they watched that game and they're like, I don't want to watch this team in the playoff. They'll be better in the playoff. Roderick Maker is better than Brock Glenn. Obviously, it's not the same as if they had Jordan Travis. I think the committee will use the Jordan Travis thing as a built-in excuse. I think they will say if they had Jordan Travis, we would have put them in, but they don't have Jordan Travis, so we're going go with Alabama and I I also

don't think they're leaving the SEC champ out I just I have said I have said I believe the same thing Andy but here's why I would be open to us being wrong yeah Florida State tonight defensively 14 tackles for loss they were just in a sport that just really lifts up guts and grit and perseverance. I do think that that can be a galvanizing storyline that this committee gets behind. And they say, oh, look at what Mike Norvell did in that second half, basically going to the Wildcat offense and, you know, having that be the change-up that leads the Seminoles to complete their undefeated season. You and I both agree, this is an entertainment product and this is supposed to be about the

best games, but that is not always the way it happens. A year ago, TCU lost in this very weekend and still got in, even though they were not one of the best four teams because the results on the field mattered and that's what that's what the committee went with and that's why alabama didn't get in and the horned frogs did and we saw what happened so boozy fed in the chat says one michigan two Washington, three Alabama, four Georgia because of Texas' loss to Oklahoma. I don't think losing to a 10-2 team is the end of the world there, boozy fed. But, listen, let's let Kirby Smart make his argument because he was asked after the Alabama game what his argument would be about Georgia. Because, listen, if we played the Vegas game, Jesse,

Georgia would be favored over almost all these teams. I don't think they'd be favored over Alabama anymore. But I think they'd be favored over everybody else. Ohio State, I think, would be favored over half the teams that we're talking about. So, again, if we play the Vegas game, that's what you get. But let's hear what Kirby said. As far as your second question, look, Bill Hancock said it's not the most deserving. He said, simply, it's the best four teams. So you're going to tell me somebody sitting in that committee room and doesn't think that that Georgia team is not one of the best four teams,

I don't know if they're in the right profession because it's a really good football team. It's a really talented football team. It's a really balanced football team. So they have to make that decision. But it's the best four teams, and that's critical. Is Georgia one of the best four teams, though? I'm going to push back on what you just said, Andy.

I think Georgia would still be favored over Alabama. Oh, you think? Possibly true. I think it would be a shorter spread. I think it would be like one or two. But when you account for the fact that CBS had their halftime guy come on and say one of the biggest pitiful plays of the game should have been reviewed and possibly overturned. And then you account for that huge play

that was a huge difference in the game and Georgia's injury situation. I think that Vegas would end up shaking that out where they would still be a point or two favorite against the Tide. And if they're a favorite against the Tide, they're probably favored against every other team in the field. So yes, they would be one of the best're probably favored against every other team in the field.

So, yes, they would be one of the best four teams. JLS Dory in the chat. How are you going to take Georgia out of the conversation, especially when comparing to FSU and everyone else? And this is where you get stuck here because you have Florida State and the eye test says that Georgia would beat Florida State. Now, we don't know that. But it's this is the problem. This is the problem with not deciding it on the field. And I realize next year everything's going to be different and they're going to have it figured out.

And we're going to see them decide it on the field. But we don't know who would win if they played. We're guessing at who would win if they played, but people were guessing that LSU would beat Florida State before they played at the beginning of the season, and they didn't. People were guessing that Alabama would beat Texas before they played, and they didn't. People were guessing, and Vegas was favoring Oregon before they played Washington in the Pac-12 championship and Washington won. So they do play the games for a reason. So that's, that's the part for me that I, it's hard because I do think like if Alabama and Florida state played Alabama, probably win. But I also think that Texas should get in over Alabama because they did play in Texas one.

I, yeah, I mean, it's the head to head that, you know, the committee has their parameters with the head to head conference champions mean, you know,

it means something. The head to head is another tiebreaker from them. The argument. And I, again, I don't, I think, I think we,

I think you and I are in agreement, Andy, that we both think Georgia probably is one of the best four teams, but they are not going to make the field. The irony of this, and this is how the playoff is always kind of shaking itself out, even if the committee has not faced as difficult a decision as they will tomorrow, is that if Georgia had lost to Missouri, but they ended up winning the rest of the way and won today, they're in.

But Alabama's out. It's just that there's another team to compare against, and you've got to figure out which, because you've only got four slots. No, but I'm saying they would probably be in, even if it was them versus Texas, because it would be those two would be compared. But it was just – there's going to be some hotly debates. I think you feel more strongly than I do that the committee is going to leave Florida State out.

I am more skeptical that that's going to happen. So DK Fishing and Outdoors, what is the SEC's best out-of-conference win? That is a great question. Is it Mizzou over K-State? Am I missing one there? Is it Ole Miss beating a Tulane team without Michael Pratt? Yeah, and Tulane didn't win that conference. So, yeah, most years you can – there's quite a few you can point to.

This is not one of those years. No. And that's another one. If Georgia had gotten to play Oklahoma, that would have been another data point that we could have used to compare teams by since Texas lost to Oklahoma. That game getting scrapped now has an even bigger magnitude. It's magnified even more because of the transitive you

know head-to-head stuff that we would be able to pull off there donovan in the chat with maybe the worst question we've gotten all night what is texas significant wins they beat alabama donovan in tuscaloosa by 10 perhaps the most significant win other than Alabama beating Georgia tonight. Yeah, that was not sure what, not sure. Not maybe, maybe he got a flashy thing like the men in black guy. So he kind of forgot. Yeah. He got neuralized that.

All right. Let, let, speaking of that, speaking of that, Jesse, let us, let us go to the tried and true surefire way of deciding when you're trying to figure out the fourth playoff team. We say that I do this every year. There's only one real way to do this. And for this, it requires the committee to decide who number one is. So you have to decide whether you want Michigan or Washington to be number one. I guess consensus right now is that Michigan will be that team. And I realize, given the person I'm about to talk about,

this may be taken very different ways because he's been in the news so much. But you now have to kidnap Jim Harbaugh. You have to roll up in the windowless van outside of Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. You're going to kidnap Jim Harbaugh. You take him to a nearby hotel. That JW Marriott there is very nice. Take him there. Get a nice suite. Have the bag over his head.

He's going to think he's talking to the NCAA. Maybe. He's like, Connor, is this a special op? No. All right. So you've got Jim Harbaugh in the hotel suite. You dose him with the true serum. You say, Jim, we're trying to figure out what to do here.

I'm going to give you a three-team. Normally, we only do this with two teams, but this is a very special year. I'm going to do it with three teams. I'm going to give you three teams. Here you go. These are your three teams, Texas, Alabama, and Florida State. Who would you most like to play in the semifinal? And Jim Harbaugh will immediately answer Florida state. And they will go, well, that's not who you're playing, Jim.

Now, who would you like to play? And he'll go Texas. And they'll go, that's not who you're playing, Jim. Also think of that. Now I, I, for one, I don't know about you, Jesse. I have never crazy enough to say georgia they do have a georgia period at practice they do he doesn't he doesn't want georgia he's like he's like if you didn't ask me georgia i'm not mentioning them i want you to forget georgia exists because there's no way i want to see them okay so i i have never been one to believe that the committee makes any decisions based on ratings. They don't work for ESPN.

I don't think that matters to them. I don't think they care about that. That said, if Michigan and Alabama were to play in a semifinal, which I would assume is in the Rose Bowl, how crazy would that game be in the run-up with your Harbaugh versus your Saban with your Harbaugh got suspended for, you know, six games this year with your, all of it. How wild would that be? Oh, it'd be it. Again, that's what I'm hoping for. and it's not to diminish or overlook what Florida State has accomplished, but that would be incredible. And that would set us up too, Andy, for a potential rematch between the Longhorns and the Tide. And it would be another case where Washington would, would probably be, uh,

you know, seen as an underdog again. And, and Caitlin Abora would be like, yo, I've only lost 11 games in my life. Like, I think I got this. So Jesse,

we have thousands and thousands of people joining us right now. I want to ask you thousands and thousands of people. Cause you're, you're all in the comments. And, and so get, get your typing fingers ready. And I'm going to ask you thousands and thousands of people because you're all in the comments. And so get your typing fingers ready. And I'm going to ask you this. Which semifinal game would you most want to see?

Michigan, Florida State, Michigan, Texas, or Michigan, Alabama? What would you like to see the most? What would make you the happiest if you knew that was coming on your TV? Spoiler alert. I'm guessing Florida State Michigan is going to get ranked last. I am, but I still don't know. I am not ready to throw out the idea of them putting Florida State in. I just cannot see them putting Florida State.

Like, whoever gets left out is going to be righteously outraged and completely justified in their outrage. Completely. If it's Florida State and they're 13-0, how can you leave out a 13-0 team? If it's Texas and Alabama gets in, how can you put Alabama in over the team that beat them head-to-head in Tuscaloosa?

If it is Alabama, how can you leave them out when you know of the teams we're talking about? They're probably the best one. I, I see the argument for Florida state. The argument, I mean, it's, it's that results have to matter. They went undefeated. Um, you, you, when the ACC was watered down this year. You know, they were not all that overly impressive down the stretch, even with, with Jordan Travis healthy at the end, but for them to gut out these wins coming back in the swamp last weekend and then beating a Louisville team that, you know, there is some

interesting transitive property games against other highly ranked teams. You know, Notre Dame struggled against the Cardinals. Louisville blew out Notre Dame. You know, Ohio State, you know, had issues there. And, you know, it's just, I would much rather see Alabama in that four spot. You know, the, the, the crazy chaos Andy would be if somehow they left Texas and Florida stayed out. That's not, I don't think that would be Alabama and Georgia. Like I said, I said during the week, I thought there was a chance of that.

If Texas played poorly, they didn't. Right. And here's the thing about Texas. 350 from Quinn Ewers in the first half. Texas, on the right day, can beat anybody we're talking about here. On the wrong day, they can lose to any of them. But Texas has the dudes to go toe-to-toe with Michigan or Alabama and beat them.

And obviously, we saw them beat Alabama. They go toe-to-toe with Georgia and beat them, I think. They have the dudes. They could go toe-to-toe with Georgia and beat them, I think. They have the dudes. They could go toe-to-toe with Washington and beat them. So I think Texas being – They're more talented than the Huskies. Texas, in terms of your dudes matter ratings, you know, Ari Wasserman, your former buddies, you know, dudes everywhere,

and him having the top three teams, the A-list, however he's labeled that group. Texas is the closest of these teams of being in that field. Exactly. Exactly. So it is going to be a fraught debate in that committee room. I don't know what, you know, I can't tell you what they're going to do. I can tell you what I think they're going to do. And what I think they're going to do is what Jesse and I said when we picked our four at the beginning of the show, Michigan one, Washington two, Texas three, Alabama four. That's what I think they're going to do now. I don't think it would surprise me if it went Michigan one, Washington two, Texas three, Florida State four. But I guess you're getting left out for the first time ever. Yeah.

The Greg Sankey tweet that comes out of that would be who scorched earth. You know, we don't normally get, uh, earthquakes down here in the South Andy, but I think at about 1221, if that happens, if Alabama gets left out plus Georgia fans belly aching about being a 12 and one two time champ likely getting left out, plus Georgia fans bellyaching about being a 12-1, two-time champ, likely getting left out. I think you're going to feel a little seismic shake there in the Atlanta greater area, Birmingham. I think there's going to be just 20 million people all jump up and down at the same time, causing a little rumble.

Well, let's tie things back to the beginning of the football season, what was going on in the preseason. If Florida State gets left out, how much more do they want out of the ACC? We already know they want out of the ACC, but how much more do they want out of it if this happens? What's the funny movie line that like there is no, the limit is unknown?

I mean, it's just like. The limit does not exist from Mean Girls. The limit does not exist. Yeah, this is, the limit does not exist. It would be scorched earth. Scorched earth. Now, that doesn't mean they can do much. They bellyached and crowed all offseason and into the summer

about getting out of the grant of rights in the ACC, and they still haven't found a lawyer with enough loopholes to kind of settle that in court. So they can cry all they want. They would at least have a greater reason here if a 13-0 team got, you know, said, hey, here's the door, number five. Yeah, it would be more of this. And I'll throw another piece of it at you.

If I were Greg Sankey and I wanted to really just plan a bug in the minds of the committee members, I would go on TV before they make their final decisions. I'd say, hey, remember when I pushed a 12-team playoff that would have started in 2023? Do you remember who blocked that? Do you remember which commissioners blocked that? Pac-12, the Big Ten, the ACC.

None of this would be happening right now if those guys hadn't blocked it. True, true, but cold. And, you know, Sankey's a gangster. He would not put it past them. Would not put it past them. Oh, I wouldn't put it past them. Would not put it past them. Oh, I wouldn't put it past them. I mean, he would be so mad if his league gets left out. Because remember, they're the only league that's been in every year in the four-team.

And this would mean they didn't make it every year of the four-team. And I think that would be a big problem for him. And not that there's anything you can do about it if they get left out, but it would be fascinating to see just how angry he gets and what he says. And I think, again, the Florida State people, same deal. If they're left out, they will be breathing fire. They will be apoplectic, Andy. Exactly.

And they will breathe that fire in every possible direction and they will be justified in their anger completely justified well that's the thing is that whoever whoever gets left out is absolutely going to have a qualm to stand on yeah whether it's alabama whether it's florida state even georgia down there i think it's six is gonna have you know they can at least make an argument although again the results have to matter before we close up here andy i do want to give uh a shout to rhett lashley smu congratulations to them they're gonna be in the next season, but for them to win that championship, I think Liberty, I think Jamie Chadwell and Liberty is going to end up getting the New Year's Six first.

Yeah, by the way, if you didn't watch the Conference USA Championship game Friday night, it was fantastic. It was a great game. And Liberty basically outlasts New Mexico State and ends up winning 49-35. Washington looked amazing against Oregon. It's weird because Oregon was winning that game by three late,

but it never felt like they were going to win. It always felt like Washington was going to win. Yeah, and then another one of these that obviously we haven't talked about at all the mountain west championship game boise state fired their coach three weeks ago and they won the mountain west spencer danielson the interim coach and i love it one of the defensive players for boise state got interviewed after the game and he goes, I think the search is over. Yeah, I would. We had Bush Hamden, their offensive coordinator on the show on Thursday, and he was like, look, this has been an amazing time. Love these players. We're making memories of the last lifetime.

Nobody knows what's going to happen Sunday or Monday, but we're in it together and they won the conference. So congratulations to them. Jesse, this has been an incredible football season and it is not going to end without one more big argument. So everybody, let's get some sleep. I don't think the people in Grapevine are getting any sleep, but they're going to figure out who's in the college football playoff. And we will talk to you as soon as they do on Sunday. Unbelievable, unbelievable. And it is going to be absolutely

wild. We'll talk to you tomorrow.