Andy & Ari On3 - Why Miami-Florida is a MUST WIN for Mario Cristobal AND Billy Napier | Which G5 team makes the CFP?

Episode Date: August 28, 2024

Welcome to Andy Staples On3 presented by Wendy’s! This show is sponsored by PrizePicks, America’s most fun daily fantasy game. Use the code STAPLES to play $5 and get $50 instantly. This show is also sponsored by Rhoback, the makers of the world’s most comfortable hoodies, polos, shorts and swim trunks. Use the code ANDY on Rhoback.com for 20 percent off for all new customers.(0:00-1:09) Intro, Map of the show(1:10-20:17) Deep Dive of Miami at Florida(20:18-21:43) Rhoback Ad(21:44-23:01) Saturday Instant Reaction Tease(23:02-24:27) Oklahoma RB Coach Demarco Murray Suspended 1 Game(24:28-29:33) Why Schedule FCS Opponents?(29:34-30:55) PrizePicks AD(30:56-32:03) Group of 5 Preview(32:03-1:02:02) Group of 5 and the Playoffs Deep Dive(1:02:03-1:03:01) Conclusion, Dear Andy tomorrow! [e-mail] We’re less than 36 hours away from week one games, and the pressure is starting to mount. Andy explains why Saturday’s Miami-Florida matchup in Gainesville is a must-win for Billy Napier and Mario Cristobal — and that’s highly inconvenient since only one can win. Later, On3’s Kaiden Smith joins for a thorough preview of the Group of 5 conferences, which will be fighting for at least one College Football Playoff berth. Which is the deepest? Will Boise State, Appalachian State or Memphis make the bracket? Or could a more surprising team like USF or UTSA make a move? And what about Liberty, which made a New Year’s Six bowl last season. Kaiden breaks them all down. Want to watch the show instead? Head on over to YouTube and join us LIVE, M-Thursday, at 8 am et! https://youtube.com/live/nUk_2ii5fqQHost: Andy StaplesGuest: Kaiden SmithProducer: River Bailey

Welcome to Andy Staples on three presented by Wendy's. We are less than 36 hours away from week one games. You know, when they have week zero, that makes that countdown feel a little more anticlimactic, less climactic, I guess, but I don't care because we're going to talk later in the show about why Colorado should have never scheduled North Dakota State and how crazy that is when you think about it. And also how Oklahoma State should have never scheduled South Dakota State. Like there's certain games at a conference you just shouldn't schedule.

And those are them. So we're going to talk about that a little later in the show. But we're going to focus at the top of the show on a different non-conference game. This is one that probably should be scheduled more often than it is. That used to be an annual game that stopped being an annual game in the 1980s. But probably judging by the way the fans treat it, how much they love sniping at one another. This should be an annual game. And I'm speaking, of course, of Miami and Florida.

Miami's going to the Swamp. This will be their first meeting since the Week Zero game in Orlando a few years ago. And I just feel like this game should be played every year. It stopped in the 80s. Florida stopped it. Their feeling was the SEC schedule's tough. Miami's awesome. This was when Miami was on top of the world,

and Florida was not yet on top of the world. Steve Spurrier had not arrived yet. And so Florida stopped the series, but this really should be picked back up permanently i mean i know everybody's saying well don't make schedules more difficult and i realize that the sec goes to nine conference games it's probably never going to happen but the excitement surrounding this game has been so much fun seeing those two fan bases go back and forth at one another because remember they recruit against each other they see each other all the time they live among each other

but they rarely get to play so the bragging rights just pass back and forth you know every so often but it should be every year. Florida and Florida State play every year. Miami and Florida State play every year. Why not add Florida-Miami back to that mix? But this particular meeting especially feels apocalyptic, mostly because whichever coach loses is in deep, deep doo-doo. Think about this. Think about this. Billy Napier at Florida, Mario Cristobal at Miami, they were hired within eight days of one another in 2021. In both cases, they were promised more resources than either school had ever devoted to football so that they could build a bigger staff than either of those football programs had ever seen so that they could compete in today's environment, in today's college football for national championships. In both cases, the coach has not lived up to expectations. The degrees of disappointment

are different. I think Florida fans probably a slight bit more disappointed in Billy Napier's first two years than Miami fans were disappointed in Mario Cristobal's first two years, but they were both disappointed. Neither one has gotten what they want. There's really not a signature win. I'd say Billy Napier's best win at Florida was his first game. They beat eventual Pac-12 champ Utah at home. Miami, for Mario, I guess it's beating Clemson last year, but at that point, I believe that was Clemson's fourth loss of the season. I think that dropped Clemson to 4-4.

So I don't know that at the time that was viewed as a signature win. Both of them better known for gaffes on field. Florida repeatedly sending 10 guys out to the field goal block team throughout the season. Mario not taking a knee against Georgia Tech. Those are the moments that everybody remembers. This is the chance to create a positive affiliation. This is a chance to beat somebody head-to-head that you got to beat. The problem is only one of them can win. The NCAA instituted overtime in 1996. So one of them is going to lose and it is going to be very ugly, very ugly for the coach that loses. I have a column about this on three.

And basically, this is the Spider-Man meme playing out on national television. These two guys came in in the same boat, came in promising the same things, and now they get to face off. And it's interesting because they've been competing for recruits. They've been compared to one another all this time. They've never gotten to play. And now they get to play. And it is a fascinating scenario

because it does not matter what happens. There's a massively boiling hot take to come out of this game that may not ultimately mean anything because it's week one and we don't know, like, are these two really good teams playing? Are these two bad teams playing? Are these two mid teams playing? Is one significantly better than the other? We don't know. So we're going to extrapolate from that one result all manner of things. But I can tell you right now, it's a two and a half point spread. Miami's favored on the road. But this feels like a game where any outcome seems possible.

Like any outcome. Close Miami win, close Florida win. Blow out Florida win, blow out Miami win. They all feel possible. And all of them are going to produce lava takes because both these fan bases have spent, and the chat's a great way to discuss this. Because so when Jesse and I picked the games the other day, we picked Florida, Miami, and before we picked it and after we picked it, the chat was just one after another, Florida and Miami people going back and forth.

And that's how they feel. So both programs, both fan bases feel like their program is the superior program, but also that the other coaches' shortcomings will allow their program to win this game. So the Miami fans think that Billy Napier will allow Miami to win this game. And the Florida fans think that Mario Cristobal's game management skills will allow them, will allow the Gators to win this game. You don't always see this. Sometimes it's like,

well, my coach is just so much better. He's going to out scheme your guy. Nobody's saying that. Not a single person is saying that in this game. It's your guy is going to mess this up somehow. Now, this gives Mario Cristobal and Billy Napier a chance to be the one who goes and takes it, to be the one who does out scheme the other, who comes away from this with some forward momentum. Like, hey, this is what we've been doing. We're getting it right. We've made changes. Our trajectory is where it needs to be. That's what one guy is going to be able to say on Saturday night. Another guy is going to get a bunch of questions that he just can't answer at that point. It's like, hey, you've had three years to do this. What is taking so long?

What is the problem? And again, this could be based on a three-point differential but that is what is going to happen that is what is going to happen if we're looking at the two guys from 30,000 feet Cristobal's roster overhaul seems like it has been more complete than Billy Napier's Cristobal has gotten very good line of scrimmage recruits over the past couple of years also supplemented that by big spending in the transfer portal KM Ward Damian Martinez Michelle Powell these these are the guys that they've gotten out of the transfer portal that they feel like can help them immediately. Cam Ward is the big one. There's a lot of excitement about Cam Ward. If you watch Cam Ward at Washington State,

there are moments where you're like, oh, he's going to be the savior of the Miami program. There are other moments where you're like, he's going to throw the ball to the other team. So the question for Cam Ward is, was that because of the talent around him at Washington State? Or is that the quarterback he is? Are we going to get that kind of Jekyll and Hyde situation at Miami? We don't know. At Florida, the hope is pegged on DJ Lagway, who is a freshman quarterback who is not the starting quarterback. Graham Mertz is a starting quarterback.

I do wonder if we're going to see DJ Lagway some in this game, but Graham Mertz is a capable quarterback. He actually was pretty good at the end of the season for Florida last year. Now his season ended when he was dump trucking somebody at Missouri and broke his collarbone, but I thought Graham Mertz played well. I thought Florida's defense was pretty terrible. They gave up too many big plays. They couldn't tackle. That's that was the problem. The hope is Jamar James back healthy. You bring in Pup Howard from South Carolina. You bring in Asa Turner from Washington.

Suddenly, you tackle better. A lot of those bigger plays don't happen. But we'll find out. Mike G says, this is the help I've fallen and I can't get up bowl. I like that title. I've been going with pitchforks and torches bowl because, again, the fan base of the losing team is coming after the losing coach. They are going, I don't know if this is working here.

Two different situations, of course, because Miami can't afford to fire Mario Cristobal. Florida can't afford to fire Billy Napier. So Cristobal doesn't have to show improvement. But unless you want a situation where you're just sort of running out the string and everybody hates you, you got to start winning some of these games. For Napier, it's a little more urgent. Like you got to win some of these.

And for Napier, I think reasonable progress is seven and five. Six and six, you can make an argument, especially if the six losses are close and you're competitive against teams that are making the playoff. I think anything below that is unacceptable. It's the University of Florida. You don't go under 500 three years in a row. You got to have a standard at some point. You got to have a standard. And I realize they've cycled through a bunch of coaches, but if you go under 500 three years in a row including years where you had the the number four overall pick in the draft at quarterback

that's who you are you you've told us who you are but if you take the hardest schedule that we've seen in a long time and you go over 500 and you're competitive against teams that are going to the playoff, then that is the upward trajectory you're looking for. So that's Billy Napier's mandate is can you prove that you are on that upward trajectory that when DJ Lagway takes over, it will be a team that is prepared to compete to be in the college football playoff. That's the challenge there. And I think Billy Napier would have a lot more optimism surrounding him if that class of 2024 had actually held together. The one that they had over the summer that was ranked in the top five before six top 200 recruits flipped other schools, had that held together, I think there'd have been a little more positivity. But right now, there's a lot of negativity. And worse with Florida,

the negativity is ennui. That's your word of the day. If you don't know what ennui means, but I know all of you do, because you're all nerds like me, it is essentially, eh, oh well. It's apathy. It's a specific brand of apathy that is really bad if you are in the college football business.

Producer River asked how to spell ennui. That would be E-N-N-U-I. That's our national spelling bee situation. E-N-N-U-I. Wait, ennui. E-N-N-U-I. Ennui. There.

Did it that way. So the apathy that has settled in over Florida is the worst part of all this, because if they're still mad at you, it means they still care. You do not want everyone to stop caring. So the good news, I guess, with Florida, if they don't win this game, is people will be very mad judging by how everybody's acting before this game. So that's good. Everybody still cares. That's a good sign. Miami, I think, is in danger of a little ennui settling in if they lose this game.

I don't know that it goes, because again, they can't fire Mario Cristobal. So if they lose this game and they lose it badly and it looks like they're not, even with that very easy schedule this year, that they're still not going to be able to compete for the playoff, that's when the Miami fans are like, well, we can't do anything about this. What's going on here? So again, Miami's got to win.

Florida's got to win. Mario Cristobal's got to win. Billy Napier's got to win. Unfortunately, only one to win. Mario Cristobal's got to win. Billy Napier's got to win. Unfortunately, only one can win. Now, I picked Miami to win this game on our pick show the other day. Jesse Simonson picked Florida. We have a piece of new information. On Tuesday, Florida released its season hype video.

They made an editorial choice in the season hype video that past schools have made, and it has helped them. Producer River, play that video. We hear you. We hear all the doubt. This is impossible. The most difficult schedule anyone has ever seen. We feel the weight of your expectation.

We sense the pressure, the anticipation, and we love it. We welcome the challenge. This is why you come to the SEC. This is why you play at Florida. It is for the matchup. We want to play at the highest level against the greatest competition. So go after it like your life depends on it So go after it like your life depends on it. Go after it like your family depends on it.

10, it's on me. 10, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3, go. You're in a special place that has history, that has tradition. Flip the switch. No fear. We're just more looking to prove ourselves right. We know what people are saying, but we're here to strive together to go win. That's right.

They put your boy in the hype video. The last team that did that was 2021 Alabama before the SEC championship game, and they beat Georgia. I believe they had a clip of me saying, there is no way Alabama can beat Georgia. This was the Georgia team that went on and won the national title by beating Alabama and Indianapolis in the national title game. But Alabama did beat the heck out of Georgia in the SEC title game there. So again, putting me in the hype video, at least historically, helps you win games. Just saying. Now, they may have just

gone with graduates there because the other person in the video was ESPN's Jeff Darlington, a fellow former independent Florida Alligator gymnastics beat writer like me. Jeff covers the NFL. I'm not entirely sure what he was talking about there but they're probably just making fun of him as a florida grad because florida had that schedule lisa in the chat editing a video doesn't win games miami has episodes too means nothing does miami have any with me and melissa i don't think so now i know some of my friends down in core reables might just cut something together real quick. If they're worried, it might cause a problem.

If they're worried, that might actually mean something. There's plenty of clips of me talking about Miami too. So if that's a problem, I think they can fix it. But no, Lisa. Historically, and I realize my sample size is small, but historically, putting me in the hype video leads to an upset. Just saying. It's just math.

It's just science. The truth asks, are you the good luck charm, Andy, or are you a bad omen for others? This is like a glass half full class glass half empty situation or the classic talk radio thing. Was it a great comeback or did the other team choke? I think we know the truth to this truth. The truth. I'm a bad omen. I'm not a good luck charm. I jinxed Georgia in that game. Willie says, if y'all want any more videos in any fashion, hit the like button. That's right.

Now, I'll keep making them even if you don't, but we do want to make some hype videos. We'll say some outrageous stuff this season. We will wind up in other hype videos. Don't worry. This show will find its way into multiple hype videos. But so far, just Florida. We'll see if my record is intact.

Will it stay perfect when Miami visits the swamp? Or do I drop to 500? That would allow my pick to be right if Miami wins i i don't know where to go on this one but i do know that mario cristobal has to win billy napier has to win only one of them can win so come back saturday night for the molten blazing hot takes either way the swamp will be electric blazing hot takes either way. The swamp will be electric and either it will continue to be electric and they will play party like a rock star

by the shop boys while everyone cheers or it will be very quiet and the shop boys won't get played. We don't know what's going to happen yet. That's the beauty of all this. Cannot wait for Saturday. Cannot wait!

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i would i would advise all of you to show up at midnight on saturday midnight eastern time for a huge show for perhaps the best show we've ever done. We'll be breaking down all the games. Now, as things happen during the day, if it's monumental enough, I may go live. Now I'm going to be at the Florida Miami game. Chances are I'm going live for a few minutes after that game anyway, more than likely. So just plan on that. But I do realize you guys are watching other games. You may already have moved on to the next game. So I understand if that's going on, but midnight Eastern time, Saturday night, all the big games will be over. Come here. We will gather. We will discuss. There will be much to discuss. I promise much to discuss because we've got Florida, Miami. We've got Georgia Clemson.

We've got Texas A&M and Notre Dame. We've got West Virginia and Penn State. We've got games happening Friday night. We got Oklahoma and Temple on Friday night. And I realize that one's probably not in doubt in terms of outcome, but it's interesting. It's Jackson Arnold's first start since the bowl game. You get to see him now that he has had a full off season as QB1. Also, who you won't see in the Oklahoma game on Friday night, running backs coach DeMarco Murray. He is

suspended by the NCAA for game one. So 65 impermissible phone calls, 36 impermissible text messages to 17 recruits over 16 months. This is one of those, remember I was talking about the Connor Stallions documentary. My wife was watching it with me and I had to explain the NCAA rule that was broken. And she's like, who cares? This is another one where if you try to explain to a normal person, what rule was broken, like who cares? Usually these days where if you try to explain to a normal person what rule was broken like who cares usually these days when you're talking about impermissible phone calls and text messages it's to players who are not yet juniors they're they're not old enough to be getting the phone calls and the text messages uh so that's usually what we're talking about now the problem is sophomores are going on unofficial visits and programs want to stay in contact with them,

so you have stuff like this. It sounds like a lot, 65 phone calls, 36 text messages, but it is 70 different people over a 16-month period. So, eh, one game suspension. I think Oklahoma's going to win that game anyway. Elsewhere in the state of Oklahoma on Saturday, there's a game that I don't know how it got scheduled. I don't understand how it got scheduled. South Dakota state at Oklahoma state. And we'll lump another game, a Thursday night game, a game you're going to see tomorrow night, into this basket as well.

North Dakota State at Colorado. And I thought Deion Sanders said it right at Big 12 Media Days. Rick George, the AD, why did you schedule this game? Why did you do this to me? Because when you play the best of the SCS, it's a no-win situation for the FBS team. And I realized I made a mistake yesterday when I was talking about some of these games. So South Dakota State, Oklahoma State is a two-time defending FCS champ going to play a power conference school.

And I said the last time that happened, Appalachian State beat Michigan. And while it is true that Appalachian State in 2007 was a two-time defending FCS champ and did beat Michigan. That was not the last time that happened. The last time it happened was in 2013 when two-time defending FCS champion, so like South Dakota State now, North Dakota State went to Kansas State and won in 2013. The following year, three-time defending champion NDSU beat Iowa State. And then two years later, five-time defending national champion NDSU beat Iowa. Now, Chris Kleiman, who coached some of those North Dakota State teams, he's the Kansas State coach now. But both those teams are still very good.

Obviously, South Dakota State is coming off the FCS National playing at North Dakota State and South Dakota State. North Dakota State left tackle, Graze Abel was one that was targeted. He decided to stay. Very funny detail in Pete Thamel's story. One of the reasons he stayed, so he's an agribusiness major, he has rented 250 acres, three hours from Fargo to plant corn. And if he goes to some other school in some other state, he can't do that. So Gray's able, he'll be protecting Cam Miller. And it's a good reminder, both these programs, North Dakota State and South Dakota State, have veteran quarterbacks. They're not breaking in a new quarterback against the power conference team. For South Dakota State, which is playing at Oklahoma State in Stillwater, that's Mark Gronowski.

He's the reigning Walter Payton Award winner. So the FCS Heisman winner, essentially. And he had a chance to maybe go to a Big 12 school or go to a Big 10 school and be the starting quarterback. But he stayed. And now he's going in there. And the thing is, these are bigger senior classes. These are people that have been together, that have won a lot of games together.

That this is their chance to make a lasting memory. Now, they also want to win the FCS national title. But they understand if they win a gameCS national title, but they understand if they win a game like this, it's another thing that they can just look back on, on a college career and say, Hey, remember when we did that room, we went in there and quieted a sold out stadium. So I don't understand why these games got scheduled, but it's going to be fun in both instances, North Dakota state, Colorado, lots of people are going to watch that because everybody wants to see coach prime.

It's Thursday night. It's eight o'clock Eastern time ESPN, South Dakota state and Oklahoma state, because it's Saturday, there'll be other games going on. It might not draw as much attention, but in both cases, you've got single digit spreads. You've got very disciplined veteran heavy teams coming in. It's going to be fun. Now, Oklahoma state also very veteran heavy, lots of guys back. And of course, Ollie Gordon, the second, the best running back in college football from last year. I think the veteran level at Oklahoma state, the level of experience at Oklahoma state probably helps level of experience at Oklahoma State probably helps in a situation like this. Colorado, you've got some veterans.

You've got some guys that have played a lot of football like Shador Sanders, like Travis Hunter, but you've also got a lot of guys who haven't played together before. I think that's the difference between Colorado and Oklahoma State in that situation. You've got a revamped offensive and defensive lines at Colorado where a lot of those guys

came in through the transfer portal. So how well do they gel together immediately against guys that have been playing together for a while that are certainly not scared and are usually pretty disciplined. But those two games, I'm telling you 36 hours from kickoff in Boulder. The Bison and the Buffaloes. It's going to be spectacular. Now, if you want to play some prize picks during that game, you absolutely can. Download that prize picks app. Use the code staples. You play $5. You get

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You get $50 instantly. But enough about the FCS. Let's talk about the FBS, but the part of the FBS we don't talk about as much. The group of five. So some team from the group of five is going to make the college football playoff this year. Might actually be more than one. Remember, it's not a rule that the group of five champ, the top rank group of five champ is number 12. And that's the only thing they can ever do. No, the five highest rank conference champs automatically make the playoff. It does not matter which conferences they come from.

It's just that more than likely the ACC, SEC, Big Ten and Big Twelve champs will be ranked higher. But they might not be. There have been times when they wouldn't have. So we don't know what's going to happen to the group of five. We don't know who's coming out of there. And maybe it is more than one. So we've got an expert's going to happen to the group of five. We don't know who's coming out of there, and maybe it is more than one. So we've got an expert on our staff at On3. Caden Smith follows the group of five very closely

and also near and dear to his heart because he played at Appalachian State. Let's talk to Caden about the group of five and who has a chance of getting to the playoff. We welcome Caden Smith of the on three National Desk the on three Round Table channel. If you're not subscribed to that by all means subscribe to that one on YouTube as well as this one and also we're Appalachian State Mountaineer football player Caden Smith. We're getting the

biases out of the way early, but also you're a person who understands Caden, what we're dealing with in terms of competitiveness. When we're talking about these, these group of five teams as they fight for doesn't have to be one playoff spot, could be more than one, but might only be one. Yeah, no, it's an exciting time for the group of five. And I want to shout out the news desk. I know is watching this right now and really appreciative to be on your show, Andy. But you talk about the group of five. Yeah, when you're upstate, when you're some of these big teams, the Memphis UCFs in the past,

you're always talking about that cotton ball. It's very exciting to make it to that cut and aspire to be that. But when you add the college football playoff into that fold, it just changes things drastically. I've talked to some upstate players who aren't afraid to talk about their aspirations to be in that college football playoff I think all these top teams that we're going to discuss today have been talking about that throughout spring throughout the summer throughout fall camp and it might sound a little far-fetched but it's kind of a great recruiting pitch too if you're a group of five school you can sell to some players some recruits that you can compete for a national title we'll find out in the next couple years in this season

specifically how competitive it will be and we know there's a lot of murmurs about the group of five, maybe having their own playoff one day and the future of what this playoff will look like. And with the group of fives involvement in this will probably change in the next couple of years, which I think makes this moment even more special. And whatever team, whichever team is going to be that first team to make this spot, I think we'll definitely have a special stamp when it comes to history of the group of five. Yeah. And it's, it's very difficult to predict. I think probably the first place we should start is kind of handicapping the leagues because

all conferences are not equal. You know that if you're following the power conferences, it's the same thing in the group of five, the, the Sun Belt and Conference USA are very much not the same thing in fact I think if we went back 20 years and told somebody that the Sun Belt would be stronger and deeper than Conference USA by a lot people would be like what are you talking about like Conference USA is like the best one of these leagues because it was at one point but now it's not now you've got the American now somewhat more diluted as they've lost teams to the big 12 they lost smu to the acc and then you've got the mountain west which is just sort of chugged along with the same group of teams although the added wrinkle this year

is that a lot of mountain west teams are playing oregon state and washington state yeah it'll be fascinating to watch and yeah I think there's definitely a hierarchy when it comes to these group of five teams. I'm a little biased to the Sun Belt. I think the regional rivalries in the Sun Belt and just top to bottom, this is a conference that only had two teams not make a bowl game last year. But Mountain West had a couple of nine win teams last year. They're very consistent going back to some of the San Diego State teams we've seen in the past and Boise State the last couple of years and and specifically this year who's a lot of teams favorite to come out of there and maybe be in this playoff but you mentioned it too these schedules and these leagues aren't

created equally I mean you have teams like Liberty in the past two seasons haven't scheduled a power five opponent in the last couple years you saw them make that cut last year and be that team that played Oregon in a 45 to 6 lopsided game where maybe this year maybe the criteria is a little bit different. I think one of the most fascinating things to watch is going to be, is an undefeated team who maybe has a weaker schedule when it comes to non-conference player, a stronger schedule when it comes to conference plays one win to win

undefeated season. What's that going to look like as far as which team gets picked in here? I mean, I think last year they set a precedent when it comes to Florida state getting left out of this playoff that maybe styles win fights. Maybe you see a team that might have two or three wins, but you respect their conference in the group of five a little more. You respect how they've played a power five team a little bit closer. I think when you look at last year, there's teams like James Madison, Troy, SMU, who's probably going to make a seamless transition to the ACC,

who are maybe more built for that game that they had against Oregon when you look at the group of five team playing in that Cotton Bowl. So I think it's going to be fascinating to watch. If you look at this matchup, these matchups in the Cotton Bowl era, four group of five teams got wins in those games. And when you look at the six losses, half of those were one score game. So I think if the committee takes their time and really tries to find the team that can maybe play the best and is the most competitive when it comes to this and maybe puts the records aside a little bit, I think we'll get a better playoff overall. And it's going to be fascinating to see. Well and what happened with liberty in oregon is a good example of this because that team there's a very good chance that team winds up c to 12th really good chance they're

going to play a number five seed that is probably the second best team in the big ten of the sec and so we're talking about a real national title contender with great depth that probably just had a little bad luck or lost the wrong game at the wrong time and if you look at last year so liberty was undefeated you mentioned they haven't played a power conference opponent in a couple years conference usa is as weak as it's ever been they go undefeated they were only one spot ahead of SMU which was the American champ and SMU had a couple of losses but SMU then leaves for the ACC I do wonder if you get in that situation again and let's say Memphis wins the American with a couple of losses like they go to Tallahassee to play Florida State, but let's say that they win the American with an 11-2 record and Liberty sitting there 13-0

having won Conference USA and their best non-conference win is Appalachian State from the Sun Belt. Does that Memphis team get judged differently because of what happened to Liberty against Oregon last year? Yeah, it'll definitely be fascinating to see. I think when you look at these teams who have historically been in these games, like the Memphis, like the UCFs and the Cincinnati's who have now moved on, I think they have certain things in common that you could find in teams this year that could maybe make that jump. So I think when you look at a Liberty team, listen, I played against Jamie Chabot's offense. They got the best of me a couple of times at App State for sure. And this is a squad that kind of relies on some deception.

You have Caden Salter, who is most importantly, maybe his best achievement of the offseason. Jesse Simonton's first pick in y'all's annual fantasy quarterback draft. He's obviously a great player. His backfield's great. And they're absolutely loaded in relation to their conference. I mean, when you look at Phil Steele's unit rankings, they have the number one quarterback room running back room offensive line room defensive line room and the number two linebacker and defensive back units in their conference so they're going to dominate their conference there's no doubt about that the question is going to be if they have an

undefeated season if they maybe have one loss to app state are there going to be other teams that are going to be considered for this spot given what they did last year maybe these teams being more built we're going to talk about some teams that have 300 pounders up front who are really cut out and i think better fitted for some matchups on the road against some power five teams more so than liberty who we won't really get seed tested until they play at appalachian state home site where they're 48 and 7 in the last nine years so it's going to really be interesting to watch how it shakes out i wouldn't be surprised if liberty went undefeated this season if they had only one loss to upstate the question is going to be do the does the committee look at them a little bit different because of last season and maybe give

the nod to another team that might have a couple more losses yeah i think it it might not be because of last season either it might just be a judgment on the depth of the quality of conference usa because i think that matter like liberty has so much more money than the rest of Conference USA also it's it's a very lopsided situation there whereas the Mountain West the Sun Belt the top of the American and the MAC are much more competitive within the leagues and but they're all different like I would say the overall quality of the Sun Belt is superior to the overall quality of the MAC the overall quality of the Sun Belt probably more similar to the overall quality of the Sunbelt is superior to the overall quality of the Mac, the overall quality of the Sunbelt, probably more similar to the overall quality of the Mountain West and the top of the American. So it's a really, it's a weird mix.

Now, there are some games, though, early season that are going to help shape all of this, because a lot of times it's when one of those teams beats a team that comes from a power conference that is going to be good. Like when Cincinnati was the American champ and made the playoff in 2021, what did they have to do? They had to beat Notre Dame. If they didn't beat Notre Dame, they were not going to make the playoff. They beat Notre Dame. They went to the playoff. You go back to 2016 when Houston, which was coming off winning the American, going to Peach Bowl, they beat eventual Big 12 champ Oklahoma, but then they dropped some games in conference and it didn't work out for them. So you've got to be able to do both.

But let's talk about some of these games. So I will start with your alma mater app state Clemson early, early, early Clemson's coming off a game against Georgia and this for Appalachian state. It's not the season. Cause again, you talked about how deep the sunbelt is. You talked about how Liberty is going to be an important game for them too, but this will be their opportunity to make a statement. No, there's no doubt about that. And I think app state's resume just speaks for itself when you look at what they've done against Power Five opponents in the last couple of years. When you see App State on the road against a team that's probably not supposed to lose to them and they're wearing the black helmet, the white jersey and the black

pants, you know it's business. And Mack Brown had to play a three-game series with this team and said he's not scheduling them again. But when you look at this team, the last time they lost in a game or played in a game that was less than a one score game, it was when they faced Georgia in 2016. And that team ended up going to the national championship game. This team has a win over North Carolina, a win over South Carolina, Texas A&M win, overtime loss to Penn State. The list goes on and on. This team comes to play. And I think the pedigree of these teams playing against Power Five competition will speak for itself and hopefully something that's considered because even if some of these teams like some of these other matchups we'll talk about these teams

aren't able to get victories in these games if they can at least play them close and show that they have maybe the skill set and the size and the speed and athleticism to compete with some of these power five teams maybe they have a better shot at making this playoff and i think app state might have one of the better opportunities compared to all the other these other teams just compared to their pedigree and what clemson might look like this year. There's some question ask Kade Klupnick. I know personally, as a former player, very curious to see how this week one game goes. I feel like Georgia can either roll against this Clemson team and by comparison, App State might seem a little smaller, a little slower compared to Georgia team, who's absolutely just robust up front.

One of the best rosters in college football. Or maybe they're a little bit beat up after this game and App State can maybe get the best of them so that's definitely going to be one i'm going to watch and probably be in nintendo's four week two well okay so here's what i here's what i'm trying to figure out what's the better outcome for app state week one clemson beating georgia upsetting georgia or georgia dominating clemson like which one allows allows, because I would think if Georgia dominates Clemson, Clemson is going to want to come and just hammer App State to drive the point home that, hey, that was an outlier game. But if Clemson were to beat Georgia, well, they're thinking, okay, we're good.

We're a national title contender again. That would be the letdown spot right there. Yeah, I think at the end of the day, what App State fans want to see is a close physical game. I think if this game looks like the Clemson-Georgia game a couple years ago that went really down to the wire, it was a 10-7 or 10-3 game. Yeah, it was 10-3, I think. It was a slobber knocker. Yeah, if it's one of those games, that's all we need.

Obviously, they'll be a little bit more motivated if they get really beat up by Georgia in this matchup. I think at the end of the day, if this team is beat up physically after the game, I think that's what App State fans are going to want more than anything. So I definitely think it's going to be a fascinating matchup this team's not going to flinch at all and i think if clemson is not having their maybe their backups playing in the entire fourth quarter would probably be the best case scenario for app state so the the group of five program through the years that probably would have benefited the most from this type of playoff is boise State. And they come into this season defending Mountain West champs. So it was a crazy season for them last year. Like fired Andy Avalos

mid season, Spencer Danielson becomes the interim coach, leads them to a Mountain West title as the interim coach gets the permanent job. Their quarterback, Taylor Green goes to Arkansas, but they keep Ashton Gentry, the running back back who may be maybe the best player in the group of five this year and they've got a game week three against Oregon and that one could be a lot of fun because we're looking at Oregon as a potential national title contender excuse me week two against Oregon potential national title contender but excuse me week two against oregon potential national title consider potential big ten title contender but what if boise state

could be like that would be massive because i think you look at oregon and you're going okay even if boise state does beat them they're still probably going to make some noise in the big ten and that's what one of these teams needs is to beat somebody who will then be really good in a power league yeah it'll be a good game to watch and I think the quarterback competition and how that one unfolded is a very interesting part of what Boise State season is going to look like heading into that matchup you know Malachi Nelson the former five star makes his way to Boise State but then loses that starting spot to Maddox Madison who couldn't even compete in this competition in the spring he had a season-ending injury that ended things for him last year but I

think it's kind of a good sign I think this team has good offensive continuity you mentioned Ashton GT coming back one of the most versatile players in the entire country if not the most versatile player in the country after being the second leading wide receiver and you know him some of these other Boise State players who have NFL potential are going to want to shine against Oregon and I think that's something that a lot of these teams are going to look forward to as well as knowing that you're a power five player playing or a group of five player rather competing against the power four. You're going to want to play your best football when you're going up against the best. So I think early in the season is when you want to get these matchups.

I love that this spot is earlier in the season. Oregon might still be figuring out some things on their own. And I think you look at a conference schedule for Boise State, there's a couple of challenges there, but I think they can get through that pretty easily. And a close win, a close loss to Oregon, I think, will be huge considering what the big picture season is going to look like for Oregon this year with their college football playoff and national championship hopes alive.

Yeah, and that's one. I don't know if you had to win. Now, I'm not a big fan of good losses as playoff resume fodder. It doesn't matter what conference you come from. I don't think you should get in on a good loss. I think you should get in on your best wins, and that's what's really important. Now, some of these other opportunities, Memphis plays in Tallahassee. That's another one.

UTSA plays Texas. That's a big one. Tulane plays Kansas State. We're going to see some teams that have some chances here. Yeah, there's plenty across the schedule. I think it's fascinating how many of these teams that are some of the favorites and some of the best teams in the group of five are playing teams that are entering the season ranked. It's a great opportunity for them. I think a big win, like you mentioned, would be the biggest and best case scenario for any of these programs.

But I think close losses when it comes to the group of five compared to the power four maybe is a little bit different. And I think a team that can show they can stand toe to toe on the road against one of the ranked teams in the country. We get to December and they're deciding which team makes the cut here. Maybe that's something that's accounted for, but you mentioned some of those matchups, a ton of them I'm excited for. I know Liberty versus App State is one of those games that you have tabbed as a real, real big game that can define the college football pivot point game. Absolutely. Good point game. Yeah. I think UTSA versus Texas state is another one. This UTSA team obviously has the pedigree that you have trailer the last couple of years, but this is

a program that has to deal with life without Frank Harris this is a guy who Jeff Traylor has gone 39 and 14 at USA and six of those losses are games where Frank Harris was not this team's leading passer so they have a new quarterback to break in they're playing Texas which would be a very big game to watch and they have a new quarterback they have to break in for that matchup and then right after that they have to play a Texas State team who only lost to them by seven points last year. And that was with Frank Harris. DJ Kenny has done a great job recruiting in the transfer portal. He adds the Sunbelt Player of the Year from James Madison and Jordan McLeod as his quarterback. We saw what TJ Finley was able to do in this offense.

You mentioned Ashton Jeanty. There's a guy in Texas State named Ismail Mahdi who's probably just as versatile of a weapon. He led the nation in all-purpose yards last season. I think they're playing Arizona State early in the season as well. So I think UTSA and Texas state, their matchups against a Texas, their matchups against Arizona state will be huge. And I think their matchups against one another will also be big when we look in the future of this, which team is going to make the college football playoff out of the group of five.

So if you're a fan of college football and you're a fan of tubing down rivers and you're a fan of water parks, early September in San Marcos might be the place to be because you can go see that UTSA Texas State game, which is such a fascinating game because Jeff Traylor was literally G.J. Kinney's high school coach. How often do you see that? Last year, G.J. Kinney and Texas State beat Baylor, and then they had to go play UTSA. As you mentioned, UTSA beat them. This year, they get them in San Marcos, and then five days later, Arizona State comes to San Marcos.

Tube down the river for three days and then go to see the Arizona State game. This is fascinating and also the idea of Jordan McLeod who was very versatile very good at James Madison last year in GJ Kenny's offense is pretty exciting. Oh, it's very exciting. I think what excites probably Texas State fans the most is that schedule we've been talking about you get UTSA at home after that twenty to thirteen loss last season Arizona State's probably one of the more manageable power four

draws you can get. And then when you look at their Sunbelt, the Sunbelt is the only last conference in college football that still has division. And the Sunbelt West that Texas State resides in is a lot weaker than the East. And the two teams they draw from the East are Georgia State and Old Dominion, who are probably picked last by most people to come in that order when it comes to the East conference standings. And then you look at the Sunbelt West, there's four new head coaches in that conference. ULM and Southern Miss were the only two teams that didn't make a bowl game out of this conference.

And then you get Louisiana and Arkansas State at home. I think you look at the Sunbelt and Texas State, specifically and App State, it's really coming down to pedigree versus potential. I think Texas State has a ton of potential. Their offense lit up the scoreboard. They returned a ton of starters. They had some weird losses last year.

They let some close games get away from them. 77 points, they gave up to Arkansas State in just a weird game. So I think they clean up some of that stuff. They have a ton of starters. They had some weird losses last year. They let some close games get away from them. 77 points. They came up to Arkansas state in just a weird game. So I think they clean up some of that stuff. They have a huge potential to be that team that could be in the group of five spot in this 12 team playoff, but you want to go with the pedigree and maybe app states championship experience. I think that's, who's really going to come out of that conference between those two teams.

You also mentioned, you mentioned ULM. We are a general booty appreciating show here. The General. Obviously the Warhawks, not necessarily expected to do a whole lot in Bryant-Vence's first year. But I do want to point out that General Booty is their starting quarterback because it's General Booty. And we have to talk about General Booty whenever we get a chance. So that said, let's move out of the Sun Belt to the American. You mentioned UTSA, which that was their first year in the American,

and they comported themselves very well. But again, what do they look like without Frank Harris? Memphis has been near the top of the American since Ryan Silverfield has been coached, going back to when Mike Norvell was coach. They feel like a team that can win this league this year. Yeah, this is a team that won 10-3 last year, and they had really impressive wins against Boise State and Iowa State in their bowl game,

who a lot of people like as kind of a dark horse team in the Big 12 this year. They arguably bring back the best team in the AAC, but they unarguably bring back the best quarterback, and Seth Hennigan, this dude, is an absolute stud. He'll probably get the opportunity to play in the NFL and I think he has a great wide receiver room as well with Rock Taylor who's a big target thousand yards last year and I think you look at this team they have to rework the offensive line they lost four starters up there

but they brought back 124 starts of experience they have a bunch of 300 pounders up there and some monsters they kind of had the same flip on the defensive backfield and that worries me a little bit more because they gave up nearly 30 points for game last year. They were the third worst passing defense in this conference last year. But their schedule is also the toughest. They faced Florida State in their non-conference game, like we mentioned before.

The defending Sunbelt champions, Troy, they face early in the season. UTSA and Tulane, they have to face off with as well. And USF, they play too. And Byron Brown is the kind of quarterback who can make any game interesting. they have a very hard path but i think when you talk about rosters and teams and pedigree we saw what this team was able to do in the past when they went to that cotton bowl they gave up 50 points in that game they've scored 30 on penn state i think it's looking like that team's similar this season if they can fix their defense though and win some of those close games in the conference i hope that say like we were talking about before liberty goes undefeated

but there's a there's a there's a universe where there's a more respectable two or three loss. I think Memphis team just given their pedigree and their guys and their personnel this year. Well, you mentioned USF because USF has a better opportunity than any team in the group of five in terms of being able to notch that signature win. Cause they've got two chances at it. One is going to be very difficult. One, I think we got to kind of wait until we see what the team looks like week one to know how difficult it will be, but they are at Alabama and you saw they gave Alabama hell last year in the game where the Alabama coaches were trying to figure out is Jalen Milrow the guy

we're going to find out by not playing him at all and playing the other two guys and then they realize oh wait jaylen milrow is the guy usf alex golish their coach knows byron brown is definitely the guy and they play at alabama and they get miami at home so they'll have their chances but they also have to to go ahead and win the american and usf's been in this league for a while has never been able to break through they were they were in the big East when it was still the big East. And even those Jim Leavitt teams that came close, you remember they had the one that beat West Virginia on a Friday night in October, they rise to number two in the rankings. And then it just, the bottom falls out. They've never quite lived up to that promise but when they got the qb now you start to think maybe this is the year they can do it yeah and i think quarterback play is going to just be important for

all of these teams we're talking about if you have the best quarterback in the matchup it just makes things significantly better for you but we mentioned the sunbelt maybe being the deepest conference the mountain west has an argument there but i think when it comes to the top of conferences the aac with memphis and utsa and a two-lane team we can talk about that i love and even usf in the mix with a quarterback that can compete byron brown in every single matchup i think this is going to be a tough league to win and i think it's like we were talking about before if you were one of those four teams in the aac can you make it out of this league unscathed probably not it's going to be very hard just given the matchups but does the committee maybe see a team like usf or some of these teams that are the

conference champion out of this conference maybe do we crown them as the team that's worthy to be in that 12-team playoff just because they have to face each other and go through that gauntlet so you you mentioned two lane and and two lane obviously two years ago wins the american beats usc in a bowl game but now willie fritz has gone on to houston john sumrall who was he put together some amazing defenses at troy he comes to two lane now he almost didn't because if mark stoops had taken the texas a m job or had been offered the texas a m job john sumrall was going to be kentucky's coach and so this is the level of guy we're talking about can he make that defense that good right away because it felt like he did

that at Troy. I think he can, Andy. I'm really high on this Tulane team. I don't like their conference or their non-conference schedule. Rather, you mentioned the matchups against Kansas State. They visit Oklahoma in week three. They play Louisiana Lafayette in the Sun Belt,

who's no joke, who he's familiar with. They avoid UTSA in their schedule, thankfully, but this is still going to be a tough schedule with the season finale going up against Memphis. But I think you look at what he was able to do and you compare this to Dref Taylor not having his quarterback. John Summerall was able to win back to back Sunbelt championships, get double digit wins without strong quarterback play. He has his guys ready to play on defense. He returned seven starters on that side of the ball.

They run the same exact scheme that he did at Troy. And I think they're cut forward and built forward. And just on a personal level, this is a guy when I was doing some Sunbelt coverage, I was able to interview and be around and interact with sometimes. He's the kind of coach that makes you want to run through a brick wall. He had me ready to put on the pads in some of these Sunbelt championships heading before the game. I think what he was able to do with this Troy program compared to what he's getting left behind by Willie Fritz and the pieces he's able to pick up there, I think it's going to be fascinating. They had a really close quarterback battle. I think quarterback play compared to some of these other teams we're talking about maybe

matters the least. You look at a guy like John Summerall, think quarterback play compared to some of these other teams we're talking about maybe matters the least. You look at a guy like John Summerall, what he's able to do with Troy. The question is, can he translate it to Tulane in this new conference he has? Now, the one league we have not talked about yet is the Mac. And it's a tough one because they tend to beat each other up in there. But there's one team I look at, and they're bringing back a good team. We talked a ton about Chuck Chuck Martin last week when he accused Alabama of stealing their kicker and illegally recruiting their

kicker. But Miami, Ohio does bring quite a bit back and they have a very interesting schedule. So they play Northwestern first, then Cincinnati, then Notre Dame. There's a universe where they go two and one against that schedule. Probably lose to Notre Dame. If you do that, and then you win the MAAC, I think you're in the conversation. I think they definitely deserve to be in the conversation.

The MAAC at large just scares me because I feel like they don't have that same appeal that these other conferences have. It's a league that's not really predicated on scoring. They only had one team have top 70 points per game last season. They have many great defenses, including Miami of Ohio. This is a team last season that held people under 20 points a game was a top 10 defense in the entire country. And I think if they can maybe get better on the offensive side of the ball, maybe generate

some buzz in those early matchups, like you were mentioning wing very convincingly in their conference. I think they have a right to be in that conversation. They can run the ball. You can rely on them playing great defense. And the question is going to be, can they get that national attention? Because even some of the Sunbelt conference and some other conferences haven't been able to get that same national attention.

So can a team from the Mac, like a Miami of Ohio, when their conference go undefeated, maybe play some close games that earn them some national attention and spotlight early in the season and maybe put themselves in that conversation is definitely a great thing to ask. And another one of the Mac has been probably the most consistent program over the last five or so years, because unlike the rest of the Mac, they've not had a lot of coaching turnover. Toledo, Jason Candle, you expect them to be near the top of the league every year. They go to Starkville, Mississippi week three. That's a brand new staff at Mississippi State. Knew a lot of everything.

Jeff Levy comes in, had to really flip the roster. That's an opportunity there too. So there's a chance that we could be talking about a MAAC team, but I don't know about you. It does feel to me like the MAAC just beats each other up in conference play a little more than all these other leagues, I guess, since that Western Michigan team. Yeah. Everyone loves some action. The Mac is loyal to everyone during the week when they're trying to watch

some football on a Tuesday or Thursday or Wednesday. I think the Mac is one of those leagues that kind of cannibalizes itself. And I think when you look at some of these other leagues like the AAC and some of the other conferences in the, in the group of five that have a little bit more national attention if you're gonna cannibalize your own league and not get in the national spotlight i think it's just a bad recipe for trying to get in this playoff so hopefully they can generate some off-season momentum and some buzz and really show off and put on display that they are a league that deserves to be in this conversation because i think we thought about

it before not all leagues are created equally and I think even though they're more defensive predicated you see what they do in bowl games against other opponents I think they do have that credibility I think they're surely in a better conference than Conference USA I would respect them more than Liberty if they went undefeated this season I think so I think the MAAC will be interesting to watch this year for sure and if they can get a dark horse team maybe in that conversation and generate some momentum I think they'll definitely be a league to watch and we mentioned Boise State and the Mountain West. I do want to mention the other team that played for the Mountain West title last year, and that was UNLV.

I think that when Jade Maiava left for USC, the quarterback who was excellent as a freshman, we were thinking, okay, what happens next? But I think you've got Barry Odom as the head coach there who's done a phenomenal job and always produces good defenses. And then you've got barry odom as the head coach there who's done a phenomenal job and always produces good defenses and then you've got the go-go offense you got brendan marion's go-go offense which that that gonna they're gonna be weird like we don't know who's gonna play quarterback for them there's three different guys listed as a starter on depth chart you've got you got haj malik williams a former campbell camel you've got matth got a Haj Malik Williams, a former Campbell camel. You've got Matthew Sluka from Holy cross, who I think was assumed when he decided to transfer there,

that he'd win the job. And then Cameron Friel, who was with them last year, but it sounds like they're really not sure what they want to do. They've got an early game against Kansas where I think we're going to learn some stuff, but that's another one. They kind of came out of nowhere last year. I don't think they're coming out of nowhere this year. No. And I think they're here to stay.

This is a team that can score the football, and I think they're one of the most fun offenses to watch. And they host Boise State this season, and they definitely remember losing on their home field in the conference championship game to this team. And I think before Boise State gets to that matchup, they have to go to Hawaii. I think they have a road game against Wyoming somewhere

in the mix there as well. So I think this team is going to be in a good spot to compete this year, re-compete rather as well for the conference championship game. Boise State's everyone's favorite. Boise State will probably be in this title game, and they will play a very good team. I wouldn't be surprised if it was this team at UNLV again, and I think this league is definitely going to be one to watch. I think we can kind of pencil in Boise State.

A lot of people like to do that, but you look at this team, this league top to bottom, how many teams were able to make bowl games and just year in and year out how competitive the San Diego States are, the world of Hawaii is, the San Jose States are, the world. I think this league is a very fun one to watch. And I think Boise State is obviously the favorite just given their pedigree and what they did last year, but they have a tough road. That's for sure. Sean Lewis taking over at San Diego State with a true freshman quarterback, first true freshman quarterback to start there in game one in the five-decade history of the program. You've got Air Force. We'll see Fresno State against Michigan week one, so we'll get a good sense of what the Bulldogs have. You're right. That league's going to be a lot of fun this whole competition because again it feels like there's somebody in every league that might be that team and that is the great mystery and we won't know until december who that team is but that race is gonna be an awful lot of fun caden smith thank you so

much thanks for having me andy whenever you want whenever you want to have me back on to talk about group of five football, I'm here. That's right. Caden Smith. He's the best. My group five race is going to be a lot of fun. And again, it doesn't have to be one. It could be multiple.

Speaking of multiple, I need multiple questions from you because tomorrow's a dear Andy day. I got a written column. We got the show. Your questions are my favorite part of the week. So send them to me on X or Instagram, Andy underscore Staples. Email andystapleson3 at gmail.com. Get those questions to me.

Give me a random ranking topic for that written version. Guys, we're so close. Tomorrow'm gonna answer your questions and i'm gonna say go enjoy some week one football i cannot wait talk tomorrow