Andy & Ari On3 - Why Michigan is a MUST WIN for Brent Venables and the Oklahoma Sooners

Episode Date: September 4, 2025

Week 2 of the young college football season is upon us, and it's time to dive deep into the marquee game of the week: Michigan at Oklahoma. As Sherrone Moore returns to his alma mater, he returns on the opponent's sideline. Will the Wolverines be able to march into Norman with a true freshman at QB and win? Will John Mateer BOOM Oklahoma's offense? How much does this mean for the Brent Venables era at OU? All that and more in a mailbag edition of Andy & Ari On3! (0:00-0:53) On Today’s Episode(0:54-3:01) BetMGM(3:02-11:14) Intro: Is this Brent Venables’ biggest game at OU?(11:15-19:39) Michigan’s side of the coin at Oklahoma(19:40-22:22) Neutral site games?(22:23-25:57) PaniniAmerica.net(25:58-26:37) Introducing John Ewing(26:38-39:59) John Ewing Joins: Best Bets of Week 2(40:00-41:50) Other best bets(41:51-52:24) Dear Andy & Ari: ACC & Big 12 Teams to Compete(52:25-53:54) Fridays in the season(53:55-57:58) Diving into Alabama: Les Miles comparison(57:59-1:07:50) Likely outcome for Alabama’s Season?(1:07:51-1:15:09) Why is USF in Tampa?(1:15:10-1:18:19) Grambling or Ohio State’s Band?(1:18:20-1:18:42) Conclusion: See you Saturday! After discussing the big game in Norman, Andy & Ari welcome on John Ewing from BetMGM. In this segment, John explains where the money is going this weekend, all we learned from week one, and what to expect ahead. Later, Andy & Ari dive into the mailbag and you have some GREAT questions for the fellas. We start in the Big 12 and ACC. As the news has been swirling in Tuscaloosa this week, Andy & Ari answer some questions related to the Crimson Tide. To close, Andy & Ari go through a geography lesson for the state of Florida and preview a band showdown in Columbus this weekend. Our show is presented by BetMGM! If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works: 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sureyou use bonus code CFB when you sign up! Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel.We’re also brought to you by Panini! Panini delivers the most collectible sports cards and memorabilia on the planet. Check out the new exclusive Arch Manning collection or the Panini Prizm Draft Picks College Football series. Visit PaniniAmerica.net to start your collection today. Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/C Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/uPMkKpUSMEc Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail]

On today's edition of Andy and Ari on 3, is this Brent Venable's biggest game at Oklahoma as Michigan and Oklahoma Lom Sharon Moore come to town to face the Sooners? Also, John Ewing, the Insights Manager from BetMGM, will join us to talk about some of the craziest betting trends, including one that you may need to know about teams that lost but stayed in the top 10. and there's two of those this week. Also, this is the day we answer your questions. Dear Andy, dear Ari, great questions about the situation at Alabama, about which Big 12 and ACC teams could succeed if they had Big Tenor SEC money. And also, why is USF called USF?

All of that on today's edition of Andy and Ari. We are brought to you by a. MedMGM. And if you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, download that app now. Use the bonus code CFB is in college football, CFB, and you'll get up to $1,500 off your first bet offer on your first wager at BetMGM. Here's how it works. Download the app and sign up using the bonus code CFB. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. You'll receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure you use the bonus code CFB when you sign up. Also, So if you've already signed up, we've got a parley boost token.

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Call 8778 Hope N.Y or text Hope N.Y. 4673669 in New York. Call 1-800 next step in Arizona. Call 1-800-3-2-0-50 in Massachusetts. Call 1-800-off in Iowa or 1-8001-81-0-2-3 in Puerto Rico. First bet offer for new customers only, subject to eligibility requirements, rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in seven days in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Don't forget, if you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB and get your $1,500 first bet offer today. Welcome to Andy and Ari on 3. We are almost there to the games of week two. The NFL starts tonight, so it's going to suck a lot of the oxygen out. The Cowboys and the Eagles opening the season in the NFL, in the senior division of football.

But, Ari, we got to talk about a massive game in Norman, Oklahoma. And obviously, we picked the Oklahoma-Michigan game. We really haven't had a chance to break it down. And I just wanted to point out our pal, George Stoy, the Third, who works for Sooner Scoop. We have obviously wonderful team sites here at On 3, the Wolverine for Michigan. Sooner Scoop is the Oklahoma team site, and George is the beat rider for Sooner Scoop. He's one of the best beat riders in the country. Does a great job, and he had a really interesting column that came out this week about this being Brent Venable's biggest game at Oklahoma.

And Ari, you know, you and I went back and forth about Kalin Abor at Alabama and that situation. This is a much different situation. Kalinabor obviously is under pressure, but Brent Venable is under massive pressure. This is year four. He's had one good year and two bad ones, and Oklahoma does not tolerate mediocrity for long. So this is a massive game for him. Do you think it is the biggest game of his tenure so far? Well, I was just trying to think back at games that they've played in the past.

And I think obviously Texas is going to jump to the front of mind. But Brent has, you know, had one solid to good year. So I'm trying to think back to that year if there was a bigger game. But in terms of like for him. They beat Texas that year. So obviously that's his biggest win so far in Oklahoma. But going into it was a. a bigger game than this one. I mean, for other reasons outside of the rivalry, I don't recall

the stakes of that. But I do think that it's kind of hard to figure out a way that something could be more important to him personally than a game like this in a year in which people think he could be fired. And I think part of the reason why this is such a big game for Oklahoma is that Michigan is a very nice-looking helmet. It is a team that has national recognition in terms of of recent respect, having won the national title two years ago, but it's a winnable game. You're playing against a team that is good

but not from what we understand or think totally great. And if you are supposed to be in a position to compete in the SEC, this is a game that you win at home in year four of your tenure. So I think that like that in it of itself of like your six point

favorite, five and a half point favorite, this is the ultimate litmus test of like is Oklahoma going to be, because like, Fans don't need them to be excellent this year or perfect. They need them to be pretty good or really good or way above average. And like you're playing a team that's above average, you have to win this game at home. And we don't really know what Michigan is either. That's what's so interesting about this.

We're going to talk to John Ewing, the Insights Manager from BetMGM later on in the show, about how the money's moving in this game. And it's very interesting. Obviously, Michigan is a team that the public will bet on a lot because Michigan is a massive alumni base, a huge brand, but the Sharps seem to be pretty high on Oklahoma in this game, which is why the line keeps moving more toward the Sooners. Michigan's bringing in a freshman quarterback in Bryce Underwood. They are, you know, this is still a fairly young team.

They're going to bring in a very good defense. This is a team that will, this defensive line will tell us, whether Oklahoma's offensive line is built to compete with the other teams it needs to compete with because Michigan's defensive line is still elite. And if Oklahoma's O'Line can hold up against them, then it gives you hope that Oklahoma's O'Line can hold up when they have to play Texas, when they have to play Alabama, when they have to play Ole Miss, when they have to play LSU. Oh, my God, the schedule is hard.

But that's what we're going to be looking for here. Yeah, and also before you get into that stretch of like every single single. time you talk about Oklahoma and you start like feeling good about them, you look at their schedule and you're like, oh my God. It's like, we know that it's hard, but when you look at it it is shocking as if you're looking at it for the first time every time, which is how you know

it's really hard. But this is a game before you get into the crux of that unbelievably different. By the way, I didn't even mention Auburn, South Carolina, Tennessee, or Missouri, which all of which could potentially be like

eight, nine, ten, one teams. Right. Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, LSU, all in the row to close the year. That's more than half of their season all in a row. Oh, you know, and that doesn't count Michigan and Auburn in the front half of the season. So, but like right now, you're not beaten up yet. You know, knock on wood, my table's made out of wood. Oklahoma isn't injured yet or injured at all.

I know they've have some people banged up, but it's not, you know, as dire or nearly as Well, they're getting a couple starting offensive line. Well, projected starting offensive linemen because they didn't start the season opener, but they're getting a couple of those guys back this week. So I think they feel pretty good about where they are health. Well, here's the reality of it. If Oklahoma loses this game, there's no excuse. There's no injuries.

There's no coordinator to blame. They're just not good enough. Like, I think like this is a look in the mirror game. Right? Like so, and you're not playing Texas. You're not playing Georgia. You're not playing what we thought Alabama was. going to be. You're playing a team that has players and a good defense, but a team that has a

freshman quarterback that's pretty good that you should be able to handle. I've been saying that Oklahoma is going to win this game all summer, and I like that the spread is six, and I like that the sharps are on that spread. But like, we're not sure what Oklahoma is until we see it. And I know that John Mateer had like some of the most efficient stats you'll ever see in a college box score. But from what I was reading, a lot of Oklahoma fans were a little upset about the way it looked. So this is a prove it mirror game, I think is the way I would put it. And

for Venables, you've got to be able to win this game more because it proves what you can do the rest of the season. And look, if you lose this game by a couple of points, it doesn't doom your season, but it also doesn't give you a lot of confidence as

you go into games against Auburn and against Texas and against South Carolina and against Tennessee and against Missouri and against Ole and against LSU. Oh, my God. It happened again? Yeah.

Seriously, like, what did they do to piss off the SEC office? I mean, at some point, Oklahoma and the future is going to get payback in the positive, right? Like, Missouri is going to get absolutely tanked. One would hope, but they are going to completely revamp the schedules next year because they're going to nine conference game. So if they'd stayed at eight, yes, Oklahoma. yeah Oklahoma and Florida and LSU and the ones that had the harder draws we're going to get the easier draws and then Texas and Missouri But now they're blowing the whole thing up?

Right, exactly, exactly. So I think that you, some of somebody, maybe this is an offseason column. You know, we're in the middle of going into week two here. But hopefully when they revamped the schedule, they still keep in mind who got screwed and who like Texas and Oklahoma have polar opposite schedules the last two years. Yes. Florida's had a bad one. Mississippi State's had a bad one.

Mizzou's had a pretty good one. Yes. And hopefully that if we can recall it, because we don't know the schedules off the top of our heads, but I can recall who's had an easier run of it and who's had a harder run of it. Hopefully the people who are putting together the schedule will keep in credence to that.

Tennessee's another one that got a favorable one these last two years. So, yeah, I think it would be nice if they considered that, at least for the sake of the folks in Oklahoma, because that was a rude welcome. to the SEC with that schedule. But Michigan, also a very exciting team because I think this will tell us a lot about Sharon Moore. And remember, Sharon Moore probably wouldn't be coaching this game if it wasn't against Oklahoma

because they engineered his two-game suspension for this year for the NCAA stuff so that he could coach in this game. He will then be suspended for the Central Michigan game and the Nebraska game. So this is a big one for sure. Sharon Moore, too. And obviously, you went and got Bryce Underwood to fix the biggest glaring problem from last year's team, and that was that you could not throw the ball. Ari, do you think they're going to be able to throw the ball effectively against Oklahoma's defense? I think they'll be better than they were last year, but they're not going to be

exceptional. I think that that's kind of where I view Michigan as a team going into the year. and last year or last weekend when we were at the Clemson LSU game we were trying to follow along with some of these games and like the ESPN game tracker wasn't working so like I try to pull a peacock on my phone and I saw glimpses of this like Michigan like kind of looked out of sorts to me last week and Oklahoma at times I think did too I really really like the under in this game to be honest with you like I think this is going to be a low scoring defense of slugfest. 46 and a half feels really high for these two teams. Yeah. Doesn't it? Like 20 to 17 is the type of score I think I'm thinking here, or 2114 or 2117.

I don't think that either offense is going to light it up because I have a lot of respect for what Michigan does defensively too. But like, you know, we saw first year starting quarterbacks last week struggle a little bit, didn't we? And like we were talking about your college football playoff production. projections and who to put in and you know anybody who knows anything about college football knows how incredibly difficult what and he does every sunday is especially early in the season without a lot of context and from what i recall you went with a lot of teams that had veteran guys

based on what we saw last week and i think that it's easy to get caught up in the hype and remember that you know you know Bryce underwood made all this money in nil and he's not like other freshmen and all these things it's like he's going on the road to play in a very hostile environment against a very talented defensive minded head coach Like, you think he's going to go in there and throw for 350 yards? I don't think so. So, and I think that's part of the reason why Oklahoma is in an important situation right now. Because if you can't get it done against Michigan, then what's going to happen when you play Texas when they found it?

What's going to happen when you play against those animals in South Carolina? Like, there's a lot of different, I mean, I think South Carolina on the surface right now is probably better than Michigan if I had to pick between the two teams. Like, if you go down the back half of Oklahoma schedule, how many teams on the back half of that schedule, would you think Michigan is better than with which I think is what George's point is with this column is why there's so much pressure on this. You've got to be able to win a game like this or you're not going to be able to win most of the games on the back half of the schedule. And they're not like Alabama or if they lose a game, you go, well, they're Alabama. There's people out there. They're like, well, they're Alabama.

They're going to bounce back. Right. And that was we got. We haven't been like that this week either. So. But Oklahoma is more like, and every team gets back. better as the year goes on. So nobody is under the impression that Oklahoma is the final version of itself right now. But we also are relatively unknown about what Oklahoma in Michigan are, right?

Like we spent all offseason theorizing what they could be and what good and bad cases would look like. But this is the first time for both teams where it's like, you're going to get a pretty good idea of what their starting point is. And if their starting point is, you know, to borrow Davos Sweeney's, you know, they're getting the final exam in the second class. you can't score a 58 like you want to score a 70 and win and be like okay we didn't play our best football we beat Michigan

now we have something to build off of going into the SEC play you come on here and you fall flat on your face Andy and it's a really really bad proposition for him and like Sharon Moore can lose this game and whistle Oh yeah Sharon Moore is fine So from a pressure standpoint like I can't imagine like what Brett and Venables is feeling as he eats breakfast on Thursday September 4th

which is also my brother's birthday and I just remembered that Happy birthday. By the way, now that I'm thinking about it, because we mentioned Sharon Moore is absolutely fine, how much goodwill did beating Ohio State last year win Sharon Moore? A lot, a lot, a lot. You know, we haven't talked about this because we don't like to put people on the hot seat before they're on the hot seat. Like it's just kind of bad form. but I am kind of uncertain about what Sharon Moore's how much slack he has before people start.

I think he was going to get a pass last season because of the timing of the Harbaugh exit and everything else. But then, and he was getting mostly a pass for a pretty bad season by Michigan standards. And then he beat Ohio State and it became not as bad of a season. and it became a much bigger season. Yeah, and beating Alabama in the bowl game, obviously,

it was a big deal too. But let's just play, because we're talking about this game, and I think that it goes without saying that Oklahoma is under a ton of pressure. But let's say Michigan goes 8 and 4 this year, which would be against their schedule, not a great season. Do we go into the off season saying that Sharon Moore is under pressure? Yes, 100%. Okay.

Because, like, it's still feasible. feels like very honeymoonish because last year was not a complete season. Harbaugh retired late. They were coming off a national title. He played a key role in the national title. But Ohio State extended the honeymoon because he would have been under more pressure this offseason without that win. Yeah. If Ohio State would have won like 42 to 14 or something would be a completely different scenario. Yeah. Because I think that people would have been happy with him if they played a competitive game that they could win in the fourth quarter. The fact that they won definitely extends a lot of goodwill.

but I do wonder because people in Michigan got a taste of winning and you know what happens when you get a taste of winning. The NIL money comes out. You get more aggressive. You go sign Bryce Underwood. Your classes get better and your expectations remain high. And like while he did play a huge factor in Michigan's wins, like how much do you think of the national championship season and the wins that he got while Harbaugh was suspended play a factor in

his his also massive, massive, right? So I think he might actually get an extra year or maybe even two of leeway that other coaches in his position if he were hired from the outside would have gotten in the same situation. But I was down on the way things were going last year, but not totally down. As you pointed out in a great column from a game that we covered against Texas last year in the beginning of the year. He had personnel issues that he didn't really have much ability to fix on his own given to timing. but man like you want them to be good right well it wasn't just person it was staff issues and you got to blame him for hire if we're going to blame brent venables for hiring set lettrell as the OC last year which brent venables came out and said in november i hired the wrong

guy like you also have to blame charon more for who he hired and now they've they've revamped the staff and so again if this doesn't work offensively if they still can't throw the ball that falls squarely on Chironmore. He doesn't get a pass on that this year. So there is pressure on him, too, in this game. It's just not nearly as much as it's on Brent Venables. And I cannot wait to watch this thing. It's going to be so much fun.

Utah, beautiful helmet batch up, beautiful uniform matchup, beautiful environment. Guys, schedule more of these freaking games. I'm not talking of Michigan and Oklahoma. Michigan and Oklahoma do schedule good out-of-conference games. evidenced by the one they're playing. Everybody else, schedule these. Do them on campus. Don't do them in a neutral site.

Do them on campus. You know, we haven't had a discussion about that, Andy, and I don't know if this is a quick, a nice segue to a quick three-minute discussion about it. But are you at all down on neutral-site games? Because I saw a lot of people are like, why are we doing this? Everybody's always down on neutral-site games.

Campus is better. Like, we got the experience. We were at Clemson for the LSU game. We then were in Atlanta. at Mercedes-Benz Stadium for South Carolina, Virginia Tech. Wouldn't you have rather have been in Blacksburger, Columbia for that game? I would have. Yeah, but I don't hate neutral sites.

I think they're cool. I don't hate it, but if it's the only way to get the game played, fine, but I'd much rather it be on campus. Like, that environment at Clemson was electric. It was perfect. Yeah. Clemson was a 10 out of 10, but we got to do something about like escalators or something.

something like I don't know what I'll never forget that already doesn't like the hills that you got to climb on Clemson's campus I I always joke that the Clemson students you can tell them by their incredibly jacked calves because they're just walking up and down hills all day you know I think very steep hills on that campus I think hills are fine when it's nice out when it's really really hot it sucks and you're wearing pants because I'm always in my head about like I have to wear pants to a football game I've never worn shorts to the well you wore jeans why don't you wish why don't you wear lighter pants. It should have worn lighter pants. Yeah.

I'm not saying that I'm not to blame for it. But have you ever worn shorts to a game? Probably in my younger days. I will point this out. This is my favorite thing my wife and I noticed at theme parks. When people wear jeans to theme parks, when it's 95 degrees outside and 1,000% humidity. Like, why?

I mean, you are just asking to suffer. like that's your own stupidity right there you have other options with jeans because we're going to be professionals but like they make jeans are not a professional pair of pants arey slacks are a professional pair of pants no I was wearing a ferity taper jeans they're nice okay expensive jeans are still not professional they're just jeans I mean you know we're not we want to talk about this because I think that you're wrong about that people wear jeans jeans in all sorts of professional environments, especially like the sports writer icon look is sport coat with jeans. And I've never worn a sport coat to a game. But anyway, yes, I know what

you're saying. I could have worn socks. You could wear thinner pants. I think that the point of what you said needs to be emphasized is if you wear jeans to Disney World in July, you're a psychopath. You're an idiot. You're an idiot. All right. We got a lot more show. John Ewing, The Insights Manager from BedmGM joining us very shortly. First, we got to talk about Panini. Ari, you got a care package from Panini. I did. Care to show us what you found?

Yeah, they sent me four boxes of the Luminance football series. They even sent me a little packet here to express to you, like, what's so good about the Luminance package. I already know the talking points, but I'm going to open it up and be a good guy anyway. You get 10 cards per pack with four packs in the box. 12 boxes are in the case and you get it's like the first 2025 product where you can get rookies that were just drafted with with logos of the teams they were selected by on the back of the card because that's the thing you know the draft happened a few months ago

takes a lot of time to get the pictures of them in their pro uniforms and stuff so a lot of these rookies are still in their old uniforms from college but you get the teams that they're on which is huge so they sent me four hobby boxes and I got a lot of like pretty big cards And they have some NIL, you know, players in there, too. For instance, this luminance, J. Michael Sturdivant, who's on Florida now, right, Andy? And he's very, very good. That's him in his UCLA uniform, but he is now playing for the Gators. And they expect very big things from him this season, very big, big receiver,

outside receiver type guy. So that is a good. This is the big thing with Benini. They've gone all in on NIL so you can get players before they're in the NFL or been drafted. And look at this bad boy, I pulled. Caleb Downs. Next to Arrow. Otto.

I put that in the top loader. I got a Quinn Sean Judkins. He's on the Browns. Now you get the Browns logo on the back. Jalen Noel from Iowa State, one of the great Iowa State receivers last year. Caleb Johnson, the Iowa running back, who's now going to have a pretty good year, I think,

in Pittsburgh. Got the Steelers logo on the back. He doesn't even look, like, the uniform won't even look any different. Yeah. And here are the three big, or three biggest ones are the ones I was most excited about. the Caleb Downs one too for sure but this is a Ryan Wingo I'm I'm pretty high on him as you know that's an N IL card of him in his Texas uniform signed then this is a rookie Colston Loveland

from Michigan who's now on the Chicago Bears this one's numbered to 50 I believe yep and then this one I don't know what this parallel is this could be like very rare I haven't looked it up yet this is a Julian saying NIL prism card that's a pink shimmer and this thing might be like a very very big short print like i don't know what that one's worth yet but like i'm like excited to go check out what i can't find the comp so i don't know if it's very rare or if it's just very new but you know i've got a stack of cards here that i'm going through trey hendrickson and score got a lot of really really cool it's just a fun rip and you want to know what i'm gonna i got to take a minute to like you know give a salute to my guys a pinini andy they sent me

this one just raw because they know that i wanted it uh this is a campus contender Jeremiah Smith card because they this is a contender NIL card and this one's numbered to 199 but they've been listening to our show obviously because they love college football and we're sponsors but they know how I feel about Jeremiah Smith being one of the best receivers I've ever seen in college so they did that for me as well but luminance is out now go get it it's a really really great product and the pictures are so good the pictures are so good there's Damien Martinez I don't know am I doing a good job here you're doing a great job. Visit paniniamerica.net to collect your favorite college and NFL stars. Ari,

let's deep deep into the numbers. And I'm not talking about the statistics. I'm talking about the actual cash that people are putting down. Fascinating stuff. We get these emails from John Ewing, who is the Insights Manager at BetMGM, and we get them multiple times a week, and they help explain the world as seen through the eyes of the sports book. And I think there's a couple things going on this week that are very, very interesting trends. So let's talk to John Ewing, Insights Manager from Bedf, MGM. John, I love the emails we get from you

because it fascinates me to see the behavior of how people are spending their actual money, how people are laying their actual money on these games, on these futures. And one thing that jumped out to me in the one you sent after week one, is Alabama still led in terms of percentage of handle in bets to win the SEC championship.

And I'm curious because that was obviously the day after they lost to Florida State or a couple days after they lost to Florida State, has that changed as somebody else? jumped up? Yeah, we're seeing pretty balanced action across three teams. Texas, LSU, and Alabama, all have nearly 20% of the money on them right now. So no clear favorite from a betting perspective in terms of which side the public is supporting. But all three obviously still have anywhere from three to seven to one odds to win the SEC. One team that people and especially the

betters aren't focused on right now, at least, is Georgia. They're plus 250 favorites, so they're flying under the radar right now as more attention is going towards Texas, LSU, and Alabama. Is that because people are trying to get value at this point? Like, if the odds changed a little bit, like it's a non-conference game, you might not think Alabama's cooked. If you can get it at a better number with no SEC games on their record, like, is that what people are doing, you think?

Yeah, often you'll see, you know, You have like a tier, right, of contenders, which those four teams clearly are, and whichever one is the favorite often won't have as many bets just because someone goes, why, you know, bet 100 to win $250 when I could bet $100 to win $6.50 on Alabama. So bang for your buck is usually where bettors lean towards. Another thing I found interesting is coming out of last weekend, immediately after the last weekend, Penn State had the highest handle and ticket percentage in terms of the national title future bet.

Are they still there or somebody else? Because I wonder if Ohio State beating Texas or LSU beating Clemson, did that change that? They still technically are the most bet, but it is really close between them. You got Texas and LSU from the SEC and then, of course, Ohio State after their big win last week against the horns. LSU is maybe the most interesting. They opened at 20 to 1 in the preseason. They had already been bet down to 14 to 1 last week.

Then they get their impressive win against Clemson, and now they're at 10 to 1 to win the national championship. And a team that betters are pushing up the ladder there in terms of most bet teams. Hey, John, you know, a lot of these insights that you send, I think, are super fascinating because I like seeing where the public money is going. When you see, like, most tickets or biggest liability, how often are the people who are creating the biggest liability correct? Or if you're a better, do you try to stay away from those people? It really varies.

I mean, that's what's great about football, right? The favorite doesn't always win. If it did, we would never bet on it. So you have, you know, the public and you have sharp betters and sharp betters tend to win more often than not, but still you're talking. they'd be happy with the 55, 57% win rate against the spread, right? So it doesn't sound like a lot, but over the long run, it can be profitable for them. Still, just because a line moves one way or there's lopsided action, we see very often, it doesn't always work out for the betters.

So before the North Carolina TCU game, you sent out that I believe 81% of the money was on TCU. This was the day of the game. How much of that was, do you think was sharp money versus the public because I would assume the public would have been all over Belichick, but it seems like people who knew the rosters kind of knew it was going to happen. Yeah, it was more sharp action there in that situation because the betting in terms of tickets was more balanced and TCU opened two and a half, moved through the key number of three and closed at minus three and a half. and it never was really close. That was the game that betters had the most success in week one against the sports book. John, I'm looking at the Big Ten on the insights that you sent out, and the favorite is Ohio State, but the highest ticket percentage is Penn State at 23.3 percent.

Highest handle percentage is 29.2 percent for Penn State, and the biggest liability is Penn State. Is MGM a huge Ohio State fan right now? And, like, how often do you see, how often do you see? a team that is probably still the favorite from a talent composition standpoint, like lose out this much action on a team that people think might have a chance to break through. Yeah, that's one of those situations where right now it's Penn State, but again, Ohio State was getting just under 20% of the money. So they're not lagging that far behind.

And over the course of the season, I'd imagine it gets even more balanced out between Ohio State, Penn State, and maybe if there's another surprise team that makes a run, you know, last year like Indiana was on a heater, and their odds moved dramatically, and they also took a decent amount of action as betterers were looking to catch a long shot. So before we started recording, you were telling us about a trend that you noticed involving teams that are still in the top 10 that lost their first game. And I'm fascinated by this because I'm looking at Clemson Troy and Texas San Jose State. Yep.

And what you've noticed, like, I'm looking at these in holding light now. Yeah. So Texas, Clemson, both lose in week one, but they remain in the top 10. That doesn't happen very often. Usually if you lose, you fall down further. But let's say you're one of these teams historically since 2005, top 10 team, after a loss in the regular season has gone 50 and 78 against the spread in their next game. So that's a 39% win rate, including going 0 and 4 against the spread if they lost in week one,

like Texas and Clemson. So this weekend, it's a get right spot for both teams. They're favored by 30 plus points against inferior competition. But historically, covering seven, eight touchdowns, it's just hard, no matter how good of a team you are. When you are doing these lists and compiling them, are you often or ever surprised by what you find? And if so, was there anything from this past week after the week one actions that jumped out at you? Yeah, nine times out of ten, the most bet games and most bet teams are going to be ranked in the top 25, right? It just makes sense.

They're often the best teams. They're teams that betters are most familiar with. They're the ones that are on TV. But this week, one that kind of jumped out to me was Missouri, Kansas, an old big 12 showdown here. First time they've played since 2011. Mizzou is a six and a half point favorite at home. But what's interesting, betters are on the Jayhawks. Nearly 90% of money is on them plus 200 to pull the upset.

You know, Kansas has an interesting offense. They have a Heisman hopeful. And Jaden Daniels, he's at 50 to 1. His odds have come down. I believe they were 200 to 1 in the preseason. I have to go back and check my notes. But a fun game to have back on the schedule. And as a Missouri alumni, I hope betters are wrong.

I'm going to be back in my tigers. I think they have a defense that can slow Kansas down. And I know we still have some question marks at quarterback, but you can't bet against your favorite team, right? Yeah, I think that people who bet against her favorite team are psychotic. I don't know, like the people who like hedge your happiness where it's like, I'm going to bet against my favorite team. And if I'm wrong, I'll lose money, but I'll gladly pay the money to be happy with my personal interest. When you say 90% of the actions on Kansas money line, you just mean like people who bet money line to win.

Like, right. Yeah. So of all the money wager, 90% is on Kansas at the two to one. Which makes sense to me. I mean, because Ari, in our pick show, picked Kansas strictly because this felt like too many points. This, you know, looking at this, this felt like this would have been Missou minus three, minus three and a half. And I still went with your guys, John. So I want, I want some credit if Missouri covers here.

All the credit to you, all the blame to me, if it goes wrong for you. Yeah, the line opened at seven and a half, and I believe it's moved down to under a touchdown now. So I think that the line is being bet down a little bit. do you play individual games yourself and which ones do you like this week? I do. I, you know, I'm not just... Shocker. I also like to wager myself.

So, you know, a couple games we touch on real fast that are the most bet. Michigan, Oklahoma, I mentioned earlier, ranked teams always get the most action. And a top 25 matchup is definitely being signaled out here by better. Actions coming in on the Wolverines, 60% of bets, 57% of money, nothing lopsided, but we continue to see the line move towards the Sooners. They open three, now they're at five and a half. So getting up there towards that, you know, almost a touchdown favorite against Michigan, even though the money's coming in on the Wolverines.

Why is that happening? How does that work? That's one of those situations where the public is backing Michigan, but sharp money. money is on the Sooners. Interesting. And I picked Oklahoma for that. The reason I picked Oklahoma is true freshman starting quarterback, first road start against notoriously confusing defense.

That's really what it came down to. But is this one of those, when you have these schools that have these massive alumni bases, do you get this just infusion of public money with the Michigan's, the Ohio states of the world? You definitely see that. I mean, again, everyone's a homer, myself included. I just said I'm taking the tigers. I'm laying the points. And BetMGM has a very strong presence in Michigan.

So we often see a lot-sided action on local teams. The lions in the NFL, for example, get just waves of money on them, especially in the last year when they've really been good, and their offense has been explosive. Do you guys have to adjust your lines when that happens based on where you guys are heavy? we try not to overreact but you know if there's enough um money that comes in then yes we we will adjust the training team is always willing to move a line yeah i would feel like if i had a property in detroit and i knew everybody was going to bet on michigan and the lions every week

no matter what i would just you know warp the line five points because they're going to do it anyway they'll never hire you are you are yeah no i know uh Too reactionary. When you are looking through these numbers and stuff, as the season goes on, everything from today is going to change, right? Like, when do you think is the best time to place a futures bet? Do you think it's in the summer before the lines get sharp? Do you think it's once you have a few weeks of information?

You might be sacrificing a little bit of value, but you get a better idea of what you're betting on. like what's the best time to you me personally i i think buying low by the dip right um Alabama was a team many considered uh not only a contender for the SEC but a national championship a team that can make the playoffs uh they looked awful in week one it happens right so uh and their odds have adjusted accordingly but if you liked them in the preseason you know why would you not, you know, get the better value now. Now, of course, maybe this team isn't Nick Sabin-like and that defense made too many mistakes, but we'll see. But I think buying the dip after

a big loss, especially in a high-profile game, usually can add a little value to the odds. So you hear that Alabama fans. We're not all negative Nellies here. It's not all gloom and doom. there's there's opportunity here opportunity John thank you so much for joining us thanks for having me on guys appreciate you that is John Ewing from Bed MGM he's the insights manager you're going to see him every couple weeks on this show Ari we had Tyler Shoemaker on last week

from Beeson who did very well last week so I know some folks have reached out to you asking if Tyler's got any picks this week, you did reach out to him and he provided a few for us. Yeah, I don't reach out to him. I text him incessantly because I'm doing one of these too. Since he's not on the show this week and we'll have him on and John Ewing on all off season because they're both really, really smart.

But I wanted to give you individual plays from Tyler that are his best bets this week. That would be Virginia plus three. the other one is Duke plus three against Illinois, which is a game that we discussed amongst each other and we're on opposite side. And you and Tyler are on the same side of that. Yeah. And then the last one is Fresno State plus three.

So those are the three that he would, he's got his list of, you know, 50 games he's betting, but like those are the ones that the numbers are strongest against. And yeah, I wanted to give those to you because I know a lot of people. Fresno State is playing Oregon State. this weekend. Yeah, and I don't know if the Malik Murphy

sideline meltdown is playing a factor in this, but obviously it's all data with Tyler. So I wanted to relay that to you guys. Virginia playing at NC State, which is very interesting. Easy State,

not an easy win against East Carolina week one, but that game is never really easy for NC State. So, but they had some, I like CJ Bailey a lot, but yeah, Virginia at NC State. That is a fascinating game as well. So, all right. Next up, your questions.

Dear Andy, dear Ari, we got some great ones this week. First one comes from another Andy, not me. It's funny because a lot of times people do these segments and the hosts just make up the questions. We never have to because we get great questions for everybody. Yeah. But this is meeting us. And Britt and I are going to see a financial advisor on Friday for the first time.

to try to like figure out how to like be smart with our money because I don't think that we are and his name is Andy and I thought that was funny he's better with money than me I guarantee you that so good luck to to that Andy with Ari's spending all right this Andy says dear Andy and Ari what big 12 and ACC teams not Miami Florida State or Clemson could consistently compete for national championships if they were in the big 10 SEC or if there is one power four TV contract with EQ distribution like the NFL has. That's a really good question. And we've talked about the idea of what big 12 teams might be able to enter that mix, what ACC teams. So if you gave them that level of money, and obviously we're taking Miami, Florida State, and Clemson out of the mix because

we think they can do that already. And they've proven, at least, you know, Florida State and Clemson have won national titles in the last 12 years. and then Miami obviously looks like it is one of the best teams in the country right now. So they've already proven they can do it. And obviously, if it all went down and the ACC were to blow up, they would have homes in one of the big ten of the SEC. But who else?

There are teams that will jump out to us. It's the same teams that we always say. I know exactly which teams you're going to say. And it's the same teams that I'm going to say because it's the same teams that everybody would say, right? Who is it? North Carolina and SMU would be the first two that pop up into my head. Georgia Tech, maybe, because they're in Atlanta. But those would be the big three, maybe Virginia Tech.

I think Louisville would do amazing with SEC or Big Ten money because I think they've done really well without it. The question that I have, though, is I think that there's this general assumption that because the ACC is a step behind financially, that they're not able to compete at the highest level in the middle to bottom tiers of the conference. But I think that it's also important to point out that the Big Ten and the SEC also had middle to bottom tiers that are a part of those deals that aren't competing for championships. I don't think that like if Louisville got invited to the Big Ten tomorrow that all of a sudden they're going to start competing for national titles.

Like I think that like there's more to a team. But they have prioritized football more over the years than say Purdue has. Yeah. I also think that we're in the middle of that changing. I think that a lot of teams are going to start prioritizing football and they're still going to be a bottom and middle tier. Like I think that it would be an interesting ranking and I don't know if, now's the time to do it, but like if you assigned 100% commitment to football for every team in college football, like who would still be in the middle, bottom and top tier, like if everybody

was equally committed to it, like, yeah. Well, so the, the, Andy also asked about the big 12. And so we've got the experiment going on this year with Texas Tech, where they essentially got the budget of a big tenor SEC team. So we'll see how that works. But other schools in the Big 12 that I think could be in that mix. I think Baylor and TCU are pretty similar to SMU in profile in terms of they are smaller private schools, but they do have some very well-heeled donors who love football. So I think they're ones that if you think SMU could do it, which I do, I think Baylor or TCU would be in the same boat if you gave them SEC Big Ten TV money. Yeah. Yeah. The thing is is when you're playing in the conference, you're playing

against everybody else that has the same resources so you also have to do things i still think that at times and i don't know if you agree with this but geography and tradition and your helmet play a huge factor in that um and i just i don't know if like upping the budget is the only thing that matters it's not the only thing that matters but i think the people who have proven they can handle money well that they can get more from less if you suddenly gave them more what do they do Utah is another one that I think would be really interesting because we have seen them jump up in conference and all right, let me ask you, think about this.

Of the teams that moved conferences in all this realignment, is Utah the most successful in terms of a team that jumped up a conference because they jumped from the Mountain West of the Pac-12, they won the Pac-12 twice in the final three years of the Pac-12. I just got done saying that we don't. do good with money in my house. I think we actually do pretty good at it.

I think you do too. We have no debt. So that's good. Like that's the number one indicator of how good you are with money. But I do sometimes think like if I, like if Shannon Terry were to call me and he would be like, hey, Ari, I just want you to know that we're going to start paying you a million dollars a year. Like I wonder. I really want that phone call.

That's all I know. You're more likely to get it than me after the story you wrote yesterday. But if I would, if the influx of more money can make you more irresponsible. well i i i think we've seen that and and you've seen it with athletes that get money early and the the rate of bankruptcy among little money either they just didn't have a lot of money before it and they just didn't know but like could you go from responsible with money with like normal salary to be responsible because you have so much money completely irresponsible like you just jacked up my salary i don't know i i think at this age i would probably be fairly

responsible with it. I think the younger, if I was younger, I would be like, Woo! Let's go! You wouldn't just go buy. I'd just spend all my money at Panini and buy bigger boxes and, yeah, you know, buy other cars and jewelry and things. I think I would be like, I would do it too. So, but the reason why I bring that up, Andy, is just because a team gets more money doesn't mean that they're going to be responsible with how to use it. I think the ones that have been will continue to be. Yeah, like, so like if you think that Utah doing less with more consistently is a good indication that they would do more with more.

Yeah, I do. Also, it helps that really good linemen grow up in Salt Lake City. Yeah, and those are the certain things that have no bearing on your budget. Yeah. So your geography, I know that we have done a lot to downplay the importance of geographical, you know, connection to players given that's the NIL era and airplanes are pretty accessible now. but I still think that being closer to home still matters. And if you are closer to home to better players,

like the reason why I like North Carolina is, North Carolina is a very underrated state for talent, and it borders a lot of really deep talent states. And it's a good school. It's got cool uniforms and a recognizable uniform. So like from that aspect, like I've always thought that they were really, really good. And it's part of the reason why all the sleeping giants are cliched.

But if North Carolina got a bunch more money, from the Big Ten television deal, and then North Carolina's administration was like, we're going to weaponize this and we're going to own it. I think that they would have a head start from a team like Louisville who is in a state that doesn't really have a ton of talent. Except I don't know.

I think I would have hired Jeff Brom over Bill Belichick. Which then makes you wonder. Is North Carolina good with money? Are we sure of this? Is North Carolina good with money? Right. And I think that that is a layer of, of this of like not just giving them money but who's going to go buy who's going to go invest

their money in the right things and who's going to go buy nice cars like that's you want to make sure you're getting into the people who are going to invest in North Carolina bought the Lambo SUV like they wasted their money wait a minute you're going to get some back if you wrote that column you would be public enemy number one because I found out working at all three that if you say things into a microphone it's okay but if you write it you're a freaking toast. You just said that buying Bill Belichick was buying a Eurus.

That's what you just said. Yeah, Lamborghini Uranus. Yeah. A Lamborghini urologist. You're calling Bill Belichick a very flashy depreciation. Jeff Rom. Jeff Rom is that that 1990s

Honda accord that he drove for like 30 years that just keeps going. It just keeps chugging through the miles and churning him out and winning every time. Like winning consistently. Andy Staples, colon, Bill Belichick is a flashy, expensive, depreciating asset. Yes.

That's exactly right. I think you nailed it. What a headline. You said it. I'm separating myself from that. I'm going to leave that in the realm of said into the microphone rather than typed out. That would be a killer column for on three. Staples, colon, why Bill Belichick reminds me of the Lamborghini Euras.

Oh, my God. Yeah, I think I'd get in trouble for that one. We'll see. Maybe, look. I still have Nebraska fans popping up in my mentions every day. So, like, if they lost, well, first of all, I don't think North Carolina fans are particularly thrilled with Bill Belichick right now. But if they lost to Charlotte, I think I'd crank that one out. Okay.

I don't think they're going to lose to Charlotte. Put it in the file. Do you have a little notes pad on your desktop computer? No, but I need to start doing that. But yes, if they lost to Charlotte or Richmond, I think that's an automatic column. And then we'll see how it goes when they play the better teams in their schedule. Yeah, I've got a list of ideas that I go through on Saturday. And it's like, if this, this, this, or this happens,

here are the seven ideas that I've written down that I'm going to write right now. Because you have to wait for them to be appropriate, too, you know? Exactly. But I don't know that losing by 40 points in your home field in an opener doesn't mean it's appropriate at the moment. But, you know, losing the Charlotte. I want to give him a little more time. Because I feel like if he loses to Charlotte, that would be like buying the Uris and then wrecking it. you haven't even given him time to depreciate yet he's only a week old but buying the

buying the uris opting not to insure it and then wrecking it that's what that would be so all right let us move on we've got a couple of questions that i feel like our it's a it's a bad shit great the show i don't know if you know that it's it's the last weekday show of the week and we have been rolling really since the season started last Thursday we're just going live every like we've actually put out I think 11 shows

in the last week or maybe 12 so at this point our brains are fried like we kind of need Friday to get back to reality for us but yeah I'm diving right back in dive right back in Ari

Fridays are easiest day of the week, but during the season, it's not, Friday evenings become difficult because one of us is on duty for the Friday night game. And it reminds me to say to you all, I'm sorry, we don't really have a compelling Friday night matchup to talk about this week. It sucks. Because the NFL has a Friday night game. That's why. Patrick Mahomes is playing on Friday night. Yeah, and big come up in Ari's house. My wife is at a work dinner event tonight. So I get to put the baby down at 720.

or 7 o'clock and then tune right into the NFL opener on Thursday night. And then Friday night, she's doing a little slumber party with our daughter downstairs watching Disney movies and getting popcorn and they're eating together. And I have the Brazil game to myself. Like, this is a big, the next three days are like alone with football for me. It's beautiful. Maybe a pizza might find its way in there somewhere too. I don't know. Well, then you're not truly alone.

All right. We're going to keep the show off the rails because. we're diving back into the Alabama well these two questions are are fairly related from Richard question for the show do we owe less miles an apology for 20 years now the narrative has been

lost took the reins from Nick Sabin at LSU and wrote his coattails to 10-win seasons and a national title in 2007 is Kaelin DeBoer showing there may have been more to it than that does Kaelin put less in a better light or does less shine a harsher light on DeBoer? We'll start with that one

I think Les Miles getting back to the national title game, putting together maybe the best regular season anybody's ever put together in 2011, and then repeatedly being one of the better teams in college football, long past when Nick Saban coached there. I think that probably vindicates him plenty. I mean, Les's biggest problem was not being able to beat Nick Saban. I still can't believe that 2011 team did not score. in the title game i can they tried to run the option with just and jefferson yeah i mean but to go

through the season and then beating the team that you lost to like not scoring at all is still kind of crazy um but so i think that there is multiple schools of thought on this question andy and i'm very curious what your answer to this is is how many years does it take before it's your team and i think that the answer to that that has changed in this era because back then when you took over nick sabin's program you had nick sabin's program for two or three years players weren't leaving as quickly um the the things that are in place are already in place like i think that comparing what at less miles did to what kailin de boar is going through now is a very different proposition even though they both took

over for legends the same person you you had more time to to kind of use that as a stable a stability I think Kailin DeBore would be getting less criticism now if the whole

program had bailed after Saban retired if it had been more than Caleb Downs. I think one of the

reasons he's getting so much criticism right now is because most of Alabama's starters were recruited by

Nick Sabin. So he is still using a healthy chunk of Nick Sabin players and not

performing the way he should be with them. But Alabama wasn't like peak Alabama when Saber retired either. I think that's important. Like they were really good. No, but they did win the SEC and lose an overtime

to the original national champ in the semifinals his last year. Yeah. I think that you're probably right. I think you checked me on that. That's probably right. I don't know if I, I have more respect for coaches who took over for legends in 2011 than I do.

Like, I think it's a different situation still. It is a different situation because it is, and we talk about what's the statute of limitations for the coaches who take over for the fired guy. Like, what's the statute of limitations on complaining about what the guy left you? We did that with Venables a few weeks ago. We did that with Lincoln Riley this time last year. Like, you don't get to do that anymore in year three and year four. So I think, but I do think. that is kind of one of the things that is hurting Kalin-Abor right now because if everybody just

bailed when Saban left, I think the 9 and 3 record last year and a loss of Florida State opening this season would not have been into the world situations. But because we're still seeing so many players that Saban brought to Tuscaloosa on Alabama's roster, we're like, wait a second, how come he could do that and you can't? So that's, That's the issue. All right. Now we go to Jamie. This is Jamie who keeps track of our quarterback fantasy scoring, which I really appreciate.

The rest of Alabama's 2025 season will be fascinating, Jamie writes. Doom and gloomers are predicting the zero seven and five. Given their loaded roster, though, they could still conceivably go 10 and 2 or 9 and 3. Here's the fascinating part. If Georgia blows them out in Athens, will an Alabama team for the first time since the Mike Shula days have to face the idea that, quote, we may suck. That coupled with the intense scrutiny of a fan base that hasn't felt true college football pain in a generation could really snowball and break the team's spirit. Which outcome do you think is most likely? I don't really want to

predict this. And I don't think we can predict this. I mean, I'm sure there's some people who think they know, oh, they'll definitely bounce back or, oh, this is all going to fall apart. I don't know that. I think they've got a couple, they've got a get right game here against Louisiana Monroe. They've got Wisconsin next week, which listen, we saw that, that Alabama team that lost to Vanderbilt,

that lost Oklahoma and that lost to Michigan, we saw them destroy Wisconsin last year. And I would argue that this Wisconsin team probably not as good as that Wisconsin team. Yeah. I think with Alabama too, it's important to

realize that, and I've gotten into trouble with Ralph Russo in the past, because I say teams suck when they're actually very good in comparison to 85% of the other teams in the country. And I just say suck in their terms. Like, what does Alabama sucking look like in their terms? And I think we mean to an Alabama fan, an Alabama fan, eight and four, they suck, right? That is, yeah, an Alabama fan would consider eight and four, an abject disaster. Seven and five is even more like that would and that's what the part everybody needs to understand like when we write this stuff and we talk about debor you're looking at it through your prism well i wish my team had gone nine and three last year well they don't that's a failure for them so i don't think

that they're going to suck in the way that everybody would suck like that level because i think like six and six, five and seven type of, that's actually sucking. Like, I don't think that's on the table. But what I do think is on the table is an eight and four season where we have to spend the entire next off season not talking about how much pressure Kalin DeBore is under or whether or not he should have his job still. But whether or not when you zoom out, Alabama is a program that is good but not great without the help of legendary coaches.

Because you can't separate the bulk of their success from the people who had the bulk of that success. And I wonder, and I wondered when Kalin DeBoer took over, not because I don't think he's a good coach, but just because I think the level of greatness expected there might not match what their actual program represents without Nick Saban, if he was ever going to be successful because whatever he did, even if it would be successful

or a very good job, wouldn't be recognized. It's kind of like, I feel like Kailin DeBoer took a job and now has bosses and constituents or the fans that have unrealistic expectations. So even when he does an above average to good job, it's not recognized as a good job. And I wonder if we're in the transition of Alabama's fans and program having to readjust their expectations of what a good job actually looks like, unless they fall back into finding another amazing legendary coach. The problem is they're going to look at Georgia and they're going to look at LSU and they're going to look at whoever else is good in the SEC, Texas. They're like, well, that guy's doing a good job.

He's winning here. This is the debate that we have every offseason. Even when Nick Saban was the coach, we had this debate every offseason about Bama, if you did job rankings, which we did, Alabama's not more one. Right, people always got mad about that. And I said, do not separate, do not. conflate the coach and the job.

Right. And I wonder if when we are conflating the coach from the job, if Alabama fans have been trained through years of positive brainwashing of success, that their program, because like Georgia at its baseline, Alabama at its baseline, Ohio State at its baseline, Texas at his baseline is last place in comparison of like what is the best job, right? is that fair you would take those three jobs of those four like the Texas oh Alabama's last of those four correct yes I would get Alabama's number seven on your list Alabama's number seven on your list number seven on my list we agreed I can't I don't remember that but we agreed you have

and like A and M I might have like gone a little crazy on I still think it's a great job yeah but if they are number seven on our jobs list then shouldn't that correlate to what reasonable expectations are for their fans. And I don't think, I think that if you look at all the teams that are on, but here's the thing. Look at, look at, look at those lists. Look at those lists. Eight and four is a bad year at all those places, except for Texas.

I know, which is why you shouldn't have them on there. I know, but a lot of, I think eight and four is the reason they paid all these buyouts. What are you talking about? They don't accept eight and four there. But what I'm saying is Alabama has won national titles so much more frequently.

Texas hasn't won a national championship in, 20 years and they're number one on my list. And I think that the expectations need to match where they would be on their list if you remove the coach from the equation. So I think that if Kalin DeBore goes 10 and 2 and makes it to the college football playoff semifinal in year 2, which now seems like a pretty tough proposition, but that would be an exceptional job. And I think that would be the baseline of what Alabama fans would tolerate and that's toxic and that's what causes issues to me. well we're going to find out we're going to let this play out we've talked this to death this week we're going to let it play out obviously they lose louisiana monroe we can just we'll start

coaching church next week but andy i don't think that's what's going to happen so you wrote this story with chris low about alabama on wednesday very tremendously well done story and you guys did reporting on it if when you were asked to do it your boss called you an hour after he asked you to do it and said where is this and was mad at you and then on Monday he was like where is this

and was mad at you and didn't understand that reporting and writing takes time days and then you wrote this wonderful story that everybody loved and everybody read but your boss was disappointed that it took so long because I don't understand how journalism works

that's a really tough situation and that's Alabama. If my successor, or sorry, if my predecessor had done a bunch of reporting already and handed me a bunch of money quotes, I would turn that story around pretty fast. Yeah, I guess. Is Alabama not a top five roster? I'm wondering, yeah, I'm wondering if my, my analogy is bad or if you got me. I'm trying to think. I got you. I got you. Yeah.

That's the difference. I mean, that, that really is the difference in your analogy. Your pilot assessor was one of the best writers of all time and one of the best reporters of all time. But nobody's, he's not asking me to write, we're saying it's Gary Smith, by the way, former Sports Illustrated feature writer who talked to at least 50 people before he would sit down to write anything. If you haven't read a bunch of Gary Smith stories, just Google them. The Pat Summit one is one of my favorites, just incredible. The one about the race walker is incredible. So just public service announcement there. But they're not expecting me to write a Gary Smith story.

They're expecting me to write a competent story that goes 10 and 2. they're not expecting me to go 12 and 0 10 and 2 yeah but my point is that eventually 10 and 2 is not going to be good enough well no 10 and 2 is probably not good enough now but it's good in it's acceptable until you can go 11 and 1 context of what we saw on saturday but that's not that wasn't good yeah okay but the problem is 10 and 2 the problem is 10 and 2 may be an impossibility and if 10 and 2 is an impossibility you guys

got a bigger problem. But I think it's harder to analyze whether Caitlin DeBoer is doing a good or a bad job, and it will get harder as Nick Saban's players shuffle out and his players come in. Oh, I don't think it'll be hard at all. If he makes it a year five and six, and he's a nine and three, ten and two team every other year, they have one year every four or five years where they make a deep run in the college football playoff, he may, whatever, you know, win one national title every 12 years. It's probably going to be okay.

Yeah, that's probably going to be okay. Yeah. Okay. So, but you just, you can't fall off the table right now. That's, that's the problem. You got to stay in the mix right now. Can't, can't fall off the table. One more question.

Steve in San Antonio, one of our favorites. Andy, I'm an educated person as you are. Ari, well, he did go to Arizona. I love geography. Most people I know don't seem to share the same passion. Maybe it's a Florida thing, but can you help me out with something? UCF is in Orlando, no problem there, because Orlando is actually in central Florida. Please explain to me how USF is located in Tampa.

Tampa is nowhere near the actual South Florida. South Florida is Fort Myers, Miami, West Palm Beach, etc. It's like saying Lubbock is in West Texas, which is not. Okay, so here, let me help you with this. I'll give you the real reason. So USF, by the way, the Bulls, going to Gainesville to play the University of Florida. Now, Florida is not a place that does UF-H-S. city name. You know, so it's not like there's no U.T. Martin, like there's not a University of Florida, Fort Myers.

That's Florida Gulf Coast University. So they put the geographical moniker or the directional school name on the schools. USF opened, I believe, in the 70s. And when they opened it, they're trying to figure out what to name it. So I will push back on Steve a little bit. He says, you know, Fort Myers is South Florida. South Florida, the region is actually to a Floridian, that is the East Coast. That is Dade Broward, Palm Beach, and Monroe County.

So that's Dade Broward, Palm Beach, and the Keys. That's South Florida. Southwest Florida is what he's talking about. Fort Myers, Lee County, Naples, Collier County. basically Sarasota on down, southwest Florida. Tampa is its own region. The Tampa Bay area is its own region. It is part of central Florida, but Orlando is considered really central Florida. But Tampa kind of marches to the beat of its own drum. The problem is when they created this university, the logical name for it would have been the University of Tampa. But there already was

a University of Tampa, very old school. It's a private school. They've got the Russian minarets. It's a beautiful campus near downtown Tampa. Freddy, they used to have a football program. Freddie Solomon, who played for the 49ers. He played there. So they couldn't name it University of Tampa.

There was already a University of West Florida in Pensacola, which should have been called Panhandle State University. Let's be real. It would have been bad ass, yeah. Yeah. So it can't be West Florida. and if we're being geographic correct,

Pensacola is very far west of Tampa. So there wasn't a lot of good options because you can't name it UF, Tampa, you can't name it University of Tampa, and you can't name it the University of West Florida. So they said USF, that's what they were sticking with. They could sell the naming rights. I mean, it's right next to Bush Gardens.

They should call it Bush Gardens University. I'm trying to think. This is going to make me go on a rant about how I think Rutgers would be more successful as a program if they were New Jersey State. No, they would be the University of New Jersey. They wouldn't be New Jersey State. Whatever they would be. If their name New Jersey was in their NGO. It sounds like a private school.

University of New Jersey sounds like the big state university. I think so. Yeah, I don't even know what Rutgers means. It's nonsense. And it hurts them in their profile, I think. But I guess we could get some help in, like, renaming them. But I tweeted, and I don't know if this question was... Yes, Colonel Henry Rutgers was a Revolutionary War hero.

It's electric. I tweeted when USF was playing Boise the other night, I will never understand in a million years why USF is called USF. It's in Tampa. And USF people came after me hard. And they weren't even like, they were just like... Why? were mad. They're like, F you, worry about your own

program. They were mad that I was... It is geographically nonsensical. Yeah. It's true. But it, uh, we should take the weekend and take some suggestions of what you would name it. Uh, new naming of, but I feel this would be highly offensive to a lot of people who like USF.

So I don't know. Just beware. Yeah. But I offended Rutgers too. They're catching strays in this. Listen, we, we've, at this point, In this show, we've offended literally everyone. Yeah, like, what are the worst names of college football teams is a good topic? And I think that USF and college of universities, not the teams. Yeah, the university names.

Yeah. And most, like 95% of them are all named after the, like, you know, just Arizona State, Boise State. USC. Boise is not a state, Ari. I know. So maybe you would have had it on the list. Boise's. But there's a lot of teams.

But Boise State is named in the same way that Memphis used to be named. Remember when Anthony Hardaway played for Memphis, it was called Memphis State. Yeah. But that makes sense because it's the state and it's the state university. It's the state university in Memphis, yes. So, like, the state university in Memphis. Yeah. I actually think that everybody that has state at the end of their name is cooler than regular.

Hmm. Because it feels more college footbally to me. Well, that's interesting Like LSU It's a cooler name in Arizona to me But LSU is the flagship And Ohio State is is the flagship But those are the only two flagships that are state

I don't even know what that means Well, I don't Yeah I'll get a lot of people arguing with me about flag What's a flagship and Because like in Texas University of Texas is the flagship Of the UT system

Texas A&M is the flagship of the A&M system So but it is the one that is the major university in the state, the one that gets all the money, the one that gets the highest level of prestige, an Ohio state and Louisiana state are the only ones to do it like that, where it's not just the university of the state name. There is Ohio University, there's not a university of Ohio that is more prestigious than Ohio got it. Thank you for that. But yeah, that's why. And like Florida, of people constantly needle Florida

state people when they say like we're the flagship. Okay. If you are a football fan and you're using that as like your superiority argument, you're a loser to see them. Pretty much. There are things if you ever have argued about academic prestige or flagship

programs or anything. No one has ever argued about academic prestige when their football team was winning against the other person's team. It's just not a good argument for you. So, you know, we're talking about football. Listen. Harvard. Congratulations. You have great academic prestige, and you can brag about it in other ways that have nothing to do with football. But this is a football show, and we're talking about football. Hey, Princeton has 28 national titles that it claims. So there you go.

All right. One more thing before we go. We had Mickey Joseph on the show over the summer. Very good dude. Former assistant at LSU at Nebraska. You saw what he did at LSU. All those receivers that are just lighting up the NFL that played at LSU, Mickey Joseph had a heavy hand in recruiting. He's seeing players like he's going to see at Ohio State this weekend up close. He's recruited a bunch of players just like that throughout his years as a big-time power conference assistant. He's the head coach at Grambling now. Rambling is playing at Ohio State. We do not have a point spread on there because it is not even on the board.

Mickey Joseph got asked about going to Ohio State with Grambling. Here are some thoughts on the defending chance. Well, first of all, they got a great band, and we have a great band, and we're going to compete as a band. He's just joking, of course, but not really. And I got to tell you, Ari, best damn band in the land. versus the world fame tiger marching band who you got uh i'm unfamiliar with uh like i'm not a band expert but like rambling has a really good band traditionally oh my god amazing band then i'll

go with them this is going to be a hell of a matchup let's because yeah because the best damn band in the land like ohio state's band is spectacular the halftime shows they put together amazing but they are about to meet their match. They're not, they are usually by far the better band in the stadium. This is going to be a much tighter matchup for the best band in the land. Do you want to put, do you want to make up a spread real quick before we go? Like what should the spread?

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I would say, I would say because they're at home, because they're at home and they've got the home crowd, the people that already love them, I would say Ohio State is, or the best damn band in land minus two. I meant for the game, but the world fame tiger marching band, I would not be shocked. Like, I take the money line. Yeah.

Yeah. Okay. Good for you. All right, crambling. Good luck. You wanted me to put a spread on the game? Yeah. It's like, I just like it's over 50.

Probably. But that just depends on when you decide to put your backups in. I mean, that's the other thing. And what you decide to do with your backups. So, like, that's, these are, these are stay away games. You see them pretty big surprise. I'm surprised there's no spread anywhere that I can find. I'm sure, well, Bet MGM's responsible.

They know what they're doing. Yeah. Ari, what a week it's been. it's going to be an even better one because we're about to have more football. It's coming. We will see you on Saturday night, 11.30 p.m. Eastern time. We'll break it all down. And I'm going to say this because we've said it. You've heard other people say it. This is not the sexiest slate of games. That usually means a bomb's going to drop.

if a bomb drop