Andy & Ari On3 - Why Oklahoma at Alabama is the MARQUEE matchup of Week 12 in College Football

Episode Date: November 13, 2025

It's a Dear Andy & Ari episode, but first the fellas take a look into Oklahoma's visit to Tuscaloosa. Who will win this pivotal matchup between the Sooners and Crimson Tide in Bryant-Denny Stadium? Watch here as Andy & Ari look at this game before discussing the best bets of Week 12 in College Football. (0:00) On Today’s Episode(1:08) Presenting Sponsor(3:26) Intro: Oklahoma at Alabama(8:18) CFP Hypotheticals(14:30) Huel(15:36) Mark Rhoades stepping down from CFP Chair(21:47) PaniniAmerica.net(25:27) John Ewing joins: Best Bets(29:30) Arch Manning at Georgia(31:27) Notre Dame at Pitt(33:35) Wisconsin at Indiana(35:35) UCF at Texas Tech(37:10) Iowa at USC(39:10) Closing out with John(39:38) Bet Trends and the Public(40:45) Week 12’s Mulligans of the Week(44:27) Do you like calamari?(46:03) Dear Andy & Ari: Who can lose and get in?(49:50) Ari, Picking Texas(53:09) The best way to hire a coach in 2025(1:04:09) Signing a contract with a certain win percentage?(1:10:36) Conclusion: See you Saturday After Andy & Ari dive into the matchup in Tuscaloosa, the guys are joined by John Ewing of BetMGM to look into the best matchups and picks of the week. Later, Andy & Ari dive into the mailbag with plenty of great questions from the listeners...Could USC, Michigan, Oklahoma, or Texas lose again and STILL get in?Why is Ari so addicted to picking Texas?What's the best way to hire a coach in 2025?Should coaches sign a contract with a certain winning percentage attached? Our show is presented by BetMGM!If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works:1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sure you use bonus code CFB when you sign up!Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary.See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. We’re also brought to you by Panini! Panini delivers the most collectible sports cards and memorabilia on the planet. Check out the new exclusive Arch Manning collection or the Panini Prizm Draft Picks College Football series. Visit PaniniAmerica.net to start your collection today. Get Huel today with this exclusive offer for New Customers of 15% OFF with code STAPLES15 at https://huel.com/STAPLES15 (Minimum $75 purchase) Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/vqU3-OEEPdc Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River BaileyInterested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's episode of Andy and Ari on 3 presented by BetMGM, Oklahoma, heads to Alabama in the elimination game that we don't seem to be talking about enough, especially considering what happened when these two teams played last year. Also, Baylor Athletic Director, Mac Roads, taking a leave of absence. More importantly, he is the chair of the college football playoff selection committee. He's also taking a leave of absence from that. about what difference that might make. Also, John Ewing from BetMGM joins us to talk about the trends this week. There's a really interesting trend on the Georgia, Texas game. Lots of lots of public money on the Longhorns.

What does that mean in terms of results? Also, it is a dear Andy, dear R.E. Day, we will answer your questions. We got questions about the Longhorns. We got questions about the coaching carousel. We got questions about coaching contracts. We'll talk about it all today on Andy and Orion 3, presented by BetMGM. We are presented by BetMGM. All the lines and totals that we talk about on the show come from BetMGM,

and you can very easily join up with BetMGM with a very special offer. It's very easy. Download the BetMGM app. Sign up using the bonus code CFB. That CFB is in college football. Deposit at least $10. place your first wager on any game, and you will receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure to use the bonus code CFB when you sign up, and you can get up to a $1,500 first bet offer.

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Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler in the U.S. Call 8778 Hope N.Y or text Hope N.Y. 4-6-7-369 in New York. Call 1-800 next step in Arizona. Call 1-800-3-2-7-7-9. 5-050 in Massachusetts, call 1-800 bets off in Iowa or 1-800-9-81-00-2-3 in Puerto Rico. First-Bet offer for new customers only, subject to eligibility requirements, rewards are non-withdrawable

bonus bets that expire in seven days in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Don't forget, if you haven't signed up for bed MGM yet, use the bonus code CFB and get your $1,500 first bet offer today. Welcome to Andy and Ari on 3 presented by BetMGM. Ari, we've been talking a lot about Texas going to Georgia because we are going to that game and we'll actually talk quite a bit about that on this show. But I want to talk about that other game in the SEC

that is a similar situation, a two-loss team visiting a one-loss team. The two-loss teams back is against the wall. They are the underdog on the road. It is Oklahoma at Alabama. And, Ari, the reason I find this one so interesting is what happened last year when Alabama played at Oklahoma. And Oklahoma essentially knocked Alabama out of the playoff with the 24-3 win, despite Oklahoma being kind of bad last year. Like, really bad last year.

And this is a good version of Oklahoma coming to Tuscaloosa. Very different circumstances it feels like right now. You know what just occurred to me, Andy? Last year when Alabama lost to Oklahoma lost to Oakland. Oklahoma. I was at dinner early with my wife at a social event that she had at a restaurant called the tango room. Okay. And I left that dinner early because of what was occurring in that game and had to get back. I'm going there to dinner tonight. So I don't know like if this is a bad situation for Bama, but wait, I don't know. Like the tango room curse. Argo

the Tanger Room curse versus the black hoodie of death, because I'm sure Kailen DeBoer is wearing the black hoodie of death. It's just an interesting coincidence. Great lamb chops. I have no idea what's going to be occurring in this game. But the one thing I want to say, and I've been meaning to say this, is when you spend all season and off season talking about a coach's stability, coaches growth, will he get fired all these things? Like Oklahoma is number 11 on November 13th, going on the road to play number four for a playoff spot. like in my mind like Brent and Venables although they've had some lows this year has done more than enough this year to keep his job now I know that people you don't want to see how things go in this game and if they get the blown out we can start the circus back up again but if you would have told any Oklahoma fan that you would be ranked number 11 nationally in mid-November less than a month away from the final selection committee results I think that you would take that without question right like I just wanted to give the man flower because every time you know a coach does bad and We talk about it.

Like, we do talk a lot about who should be fired, when they're fired, why they're fired. But when a coach, like, coaches his way out of it, I think it's important for us to also, like, acknowledge that. And I wanted to do that today. So I would agree with that. And look, they have improved the amount you would have expected them to improve given what happened last year. So this is a reasonable level of improvement. You would want to see more improvement next year. But they feel like they're on pace to be where they're supposed to be.

Right. And I think where you're supposed to be, and I think that this is going to be the norm for any SEC team moving forward or any Big Ten team for that matter. You know, the days of going 11 and 1 or 12 and O in the Big 12 are over. And I know he got flamed for saying that earlier in the year, but like that's just not going to happen anymore. And like being a two or three lost team, you know, on November 15th and on the top 15 in a elimination game on the road at Alabama is exactly where you want Oklahoma to be. It's the exact place that Texas is in. Yeah. You know, they're kind of in the same position. So, you know, when you think about the intersection of those two programs,

and obviously they played and it went poorly for Oklahoma, which is a stain on any Oklahoma's coaches, and anybody who loses rivalry games to stain on. But when you think about where we were last year when they played Texas in the Cotton Bowl, and it felt like everything was dire and that Oklahoma was falling apart, like, and where Texas was headed that year to, like, where both of those teams are there in the same exact spot on the same exact weekend in the same season.

So that's exactly right. You know, whatever you want to say about that, you know, I think it's important to acknowledge. Right. And I mean, they're ranked one spot apart is all you need to know. Ranked one spot apart going on the road to play what the college football playoff selection committee considers the two best teams in the SEC. This is everything you wanted. And if you can come through in this game,

or you've mentioned this. We don't know if a 9 and 3 team can make the playoff, but the best shot a 9 and 3 team would have to make the playoff is if Oklahoma wins this one and finished 9 and 3. If they finish 10 and 2, obviously they're going to make it. We don't know what the entire picture is, Andy. Yeah.

But let's just draw up a fun podcast scenario. Okay, sure. Oklahoma beats Bama on Saturday. Texas beats Georgia on Saturday, they both lose one more time. They're both nine and three. Could you have an Oklahoma, Texas for the final spot debate? And maybe it would.

They played each other, but it will be interesting to see, like, rivals. Because you can also make the case, though, that Oklahoma's win is better because beating Alabama weighs more. I don't know. Yeah, but the head-to-head and it being so decisive, I think, would carry the day. And it just, they are in the same spot if they both win.

Georgia would be Yeah both considered really good wins But I think every team that's in the playoff picture that is not in the SEC or Big Ten should be rooting for Bama and Georgia this weekend.

You want them to clear out as many teams as possible. You know who else is rooting for Alabama? Who? Is Georgia? So on my Yahoo show, Stephen Godfrey brought this up

and I had not, we actually started talking about before we started recording and something he'd been thinking about all week. If you're Georgia, obviously you want to win the rest of your games. You want to go 11 and 1 and have, you know, the win against Ole Miss to hang your hat on, the winning against Texas to hang your hat on.

A win against Georgia Tech would be something you can hang your hat on probably. But you want Alabama and Texas A&M to keep winning. Why? Because then you don't have to play in the SEC championship game. And you're going to be the five seed most likely get a home game against USF or Tulane or somebody like that. Would you trade that home game against USF or Tulane for having to go to Atlanta and play Alabama or Texas A&M? But if you win that game, then you don't have to play a game at all in the first round. Which would you rather play?

You're going to have to play one of those two games, which would you rather play? Is this the implication that if they were to lose the SEC title game, they would be out? They would be not out of the playoff, but they might be out of the five spot. I'd rather go to the SEC championship game. I would rather play the American champion. I'd rather try to play in Sanford Stadium. I'd rather try to win the conference that everyone is obsessed with winning and then also try to win a buy and then not have to play a game at all.

I would rather, I would rather not play that game. Do you remember what happened? I mean, of course you remember what happened. What happened last year? They won the SEC championship game, but they lost their quarterback. Yeah. I mean, I guess like if we're going to go down the injury route, then, you know, less games is more. But here's the thing.

In this scenario, you have to play the same number of games. you're deciding, would you rather play Alabama or A&M or USF or Tulane? The answer is obvious. Yeah, but if you win the one game, one game's not an elimination game and the other one is. And then you have a chance to avoid an elimination game by winning the SEC. You're going to crush the American champ. I mean, it's really stupid that we even have to have to have a home game. I think it's really, really scary.

This is the other stupid part of the system. If you do win, or let's say one of those teams loses and you go to the SEC championship game, you get screwed out of a home game. Like winning the SEC championship and getting the buy, you don't get to play at home again. Well, here's the other thing, too. Could they not make the SEC championship game and then still be a top four seed? Like, you can probably get both. So, like, there's a scenario where that happens where if Michigan beats

Ohio State if I guess Indiana were to drop a game between now and the Big Ten championship. I don't even think you would do this. I think if they are a one-loss team at the end of the year that got left out of the

SEC championship game because two teams happen to go undefeated in the SEC and your only losses to one of the teams that played in it, you're a top four seed period. Like I don't see how they would not be kicking out though. You would probably be kicking out one of the losers of the championship.

games, right? Which one? I mean, I guess it depends on how the game you're kicking out. I don't know. It depends on what the games look like. It's Ohio State and Indiana, Ari, unless something crazy happens. Who are you kicking out? I would kick out the loser of the Big Ten championship game. Okay.

Unless the loser of the SEC championship game loses by more or is more embarrassed. I don't know. I would pick between the two worst results of the two. games. What if it's Alabama that loses the SEC championship game and has a head-to-head win in Athens? Then I guess then you would have a problem there. Okay.

Like I said, Georgia, giant Alabama fans, giant Alabama fans in this game. Yeah. There's nothing, nobody routes for other teams in their conference more than teams in the SEC. And this time, they actually have something to gain from it. In this case, there's a good reason for it. Yeah. But, yeah, the other cases, there's usually not.

All that said, too, I don't think any of that's going to happen. So, well, I think one of the teams is going to lose this weekend. I think Bama or George. Do you think one of them is going to lose? You have Texas to cover in your picks, right? Yes. Okay. And so you have, you have Thursday.

I'm not changing that either. Yeah, it is Molligan Thursday. We're going to talk to John Ewing from Bet, in a few minutes. If your life depended on it, though, wouldn't you think that one? one will lose. Do you think they're both going to win? I have no idea what's going to happen.

They could both lose. I'm feeling one's going to lose. That is, well, that's the beauty of this thing. I mean, this is why the SEC took these two teams and why they joined the SEC, like, for these games, like for these games to happen.

I really think that's going to actually win the game. Like, I have this feeling in my, like, stomach that they're going to win the game. Oh, your stomach, huh? I thought you were going to go for another body part. That feeling, Something's gone a little bit dull with my record this year. All right.

We have some news regarding the college football playoff selection committee. But before that, I want to tell you about Huell, the Huell Black Edition, the best complete meal in seconds, not just minutes, but seconds. You put the powder in the bottle, you mix it up, you shake it up, you have a complete meal, 35 grams of protein, all the vitamins and minerals you need. It is excellent. Plus, you've got the Huell ready to drink where you don't even have to do that. You just open the bottle. You're good to go a whole meal. Go to Huell.com.

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or hit up your target stores and get yourself some fuel. All right. News breaking as of Thursday morning. So our friend Ross Dellinger, my co-host on the college football inquirer, he broke a story that Baylor Athletic Director, Mack Rhodes is taking a leave of absence from the school. Now, that is important for Baylor reasons, obviously. It is also important for college football playoff selection committee reasons because he's the chair of the college football playoff selection committee. So he is also

recusing himself from that. Now, what that means is there's no Big 12 AD representative on the committee. So the Big 12 has reportedly put forward Mark Harlan, the Utah athletic director, to Phil Mack Road's spot. So we will see exactly how that shakes out over the next few days. What's your feeling on how impactful the committee chair is in the deliberations, in the delivery, and all the stuff?

Like, if you take away the chair, is that a leadership role that is, that changes the dynamics in the room? Somebody else will just be the chair. Like, that's not really an issue. Like, there are other people who could be the chair. that committee has got some people like Troy Dannon from Nebraska's on there he could he could handle that role easily Mark Carlin if that's what he ends up doing would be fine doing that so it's not a it's not that big of a deal it's

that's the face that's the person who talks to Reese Davis on the show and who answers the questions on the teleconference after the the rankings reveal the responsibilities are similar to everyone else's right and the thing is when you are the person answering the questions I don't even think that's that important of a role all you do is all you're there is to get yelled at because you are speaking for 13 people all of whom have different opinions and basically all you do is try to make the zestiest word salad you can it's a really useless exercise yeah and often impossible to not contradict yourself correct it's it puts the person in an impossible situation and it doesn't really advance the discourse at all i know we need to start the televised the

Well, I think I've told this story before. So we did the mock selection, the first ever before the actual committee had met. This was 2014. And so I'm sitting there and the actual chair of the committee was Jeff Long, who was the AD at Arkansas at the time. And then Bill Hancock, who was the executive director of the CFP at the time, is also sitting there. So Jeff's on one side of me.

Bill's on the other side. It was our friend Ralph Russo who led the charge to have me elected the chair of our mock committee. And so we decided that after we figured out who the teams would be, and we used the data from 2008, which was a really weird year, if everybody remembers that one, we decided that I was going to hold a mock press conference as the chair after we unveiled our rankings.

And all I know is Bill Hancock had his head in his hands the whole time, and Jeff's taking notes like, don't do this, don't do this. as I was answering questions because, you know, that's, that's the year that Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech all finished tied in the Big 12 South at 11 and 1. And my thing was that Texas should have been in the top, in our top four. They should have made the playoff and they didn't. And I argued, I had argued about that with the people in the room. And so one of the questions I got was, well, why didn't you guys pick Texas?

And my answer was, well, I wanted Texas to be in the top four, but these idiots didn't. and that didn't go over don't do that you know what i did it too i didn't do it before they did it i did it like in 2020 or 21 like the first year after covid um and the year we did was 2014 which was like the worst year for me to do it because of how involved i wasn't actually covering it that was the but you but you also so you had ohio state coming in there and then you had the baler tc u.s you just that's why they picked it but we also knew how it turned out so it was kind of hard to do it because everybody knew that you couldn't leave Ohio State out. And I kind of wish we would have gotten a year from like the BCS era that was strange and

kind of done it that way because then we wouldn't have had the benefit of hindsight. But I will say this might surprise you, it might not. I spoke more than anybody in that room. Like I was like, yeah, what are you talking about? Like I was like, and I wonder if it is kind of like our show. Like, you know, when you and I get heated about something, like I hope that they get heated in there and yell at each other. and I was making a joke.

I'm told they do from people who've been in the room before. Yeah, I'm told they get very passionate about it. And I'm glad they do. I want them to because it's important. It matters to people. Yeah, because all you see is the results. You don't really see the work that goes into coming to those results. And I still stand by the notion that if me, you, Ralph Rousseau, and all of our friends

did the playoff committee the same time that they were, that we would probably come up with the same exact results. Yeah, any 13 people who watch a lot of college football, I would imagine would come up with almost identical rings. Especially by the end of the year. It's so fun, and I think that there's differing opinions. Like, for instance, like when I got cooked by Notre Dame fans last week for my opinion on where they should be, like, by the end of the year, it'll, there'll be a very clear definitive answer. Yeah, you'll, you'll have a very easy time either having Notre Dame in your top, top 10 or top 11 or not. It'll be very easy to. Whatever we're engaged in these conversations, too, it's like, well, if they do this, this and this, then this happens.

And it's like, once you have the results of all that stuff, it's very easy to. Now, I don't know about seating. Seating, I think, could be differing, but I don't think that anybody would be in or out that wasn't already in or out. Yeah. Well, we got to decide what picks we're in or out on because we have Mulligan Thursday coming up. But before we do Mulligan Thursday, I want to talk to John Ewing. He's a BetMGM Insights Manager. He follows all these trends, understands the numbers better than almost anyone. I want to talk to him before I make a final decision on my mulligan because I have a couple of different possibilities.

Ari, before we do that, let's rip a Panini pack. Visit pininiamerica.net to collect your favorite college and NFL stars. They've got NIL cards. They've got these Ohio State cards. Actually, we'll do a Donorous NFL pack and an Ohio State pack. So I'm going to hit this Ohio State Pack first because I love these. potential big Jeremiah Smith cards in here. We've gotten Julian, you've gotten to Julian saying,

I've gotten Natavia in St. Clair. If you, you and I are friends enough where if you hit that Jeremiah card, you'll give it to me, right? Like, we're close enough for that, right? Just, I mean, maybe we'll think about it. Okay. So we got a John Mobley, Jr.

We got James Peoples from the football team. We got Kamaya Gibson from the volleyball team. And, you know, we were just talking about 2014. 14, Ari. Mm-hmm. Campus Legends, NIL card. Cardale Jones. That's a blast from the past right there.

We ain't come here to play school, Ari. Cardell Jones is on TV now. I love Cardell Jones. He's so funny. He's got a great personality. Yeah. He has good personalities get far. I'm happy for his success.

All right, we've got a Donner's NFL pack. We're going to open that real quick. And you said the downtown insert is, is what we're looking for. That's the big nuke in this. I had a minute, but what it actually looks like. All right. So we've got Kurt Warner in his Rams uniform.

Tony Dorset, Pitt Legend. Tony Dorset cares about the Notre Dame game, even if Pat Narduzzi doesn't. Will Howard rated rookie, Ohio State's quarterback last year. Also K-State quarterback. Julian Love. Speaking of Notre Dame. Mike Gisicki, great former Penn State tight end.

We've got a Dominator's Christian Gonzalez, Colorado to Oregon transfer. Got a rated rookies throwback, Jalen Royals, a road to the Super Bowl, Zach Bonn, Giovante Williams from North Carolina, Nico Collins from Michigan. So, Ari, what do you got on your desk? I just grabbed some of the Ohio State hits that I got out of my Ohio State Blaster that they sent me. This is a Julian San, like pink camo prism. That's pretty. You'll give me that, right?

Yeah, I mean, if you hit the Jeremiah, this one's all yours. Oh, no, no, no. Arvel Reese College ticket, and this one, I believe, is numbered to 199. Arvel Reese is a good year. They printed these cards before he became what he is. That wasn't supposed to be a big hit, but it turned into one. And then, of course, Jeremiah Smith, NIL numbered to $199, came out of there. So you got to keep your eyes peeled, Andy.

You're probably going to hit a nuke here eventually. And then, you know, I also bought some Caleb Johnson cards because I thought he was awesome last year. And he hasn't been playing as much where the Steelers, but I think he'll probably find his way. Here's a few rookie cards. Here's one auto out of 2025 impeccable and one regular rookie to 80. Well, I am really glad you brought up an Iowa player because. Because I wanted to tee up, man. I'm a veteran.

I know how to do transitions, too. Oh, yeah. I'm going to ask John Ewing about the Hawkeyes and the weather because that's my potential mulligan. But we've got to start, of course, with the biggest games of the week. So here is John Ewing. We're talking a little Alabama, Oklahoma, and Texas, Georgia. John Ewing Insights Manager from BedMGM joins us.

and John, we've been talking about these elimination games in the SEC, but I'm curious where the action is on these games and what's been happening as the week has gone on since the lines have been released. So let's talk a little Oklahoma, Alabama, and Texas, Georgia. Sure. Where is the public leaning on these things? Yeah, we always talk about ranked teams get the most action, matchups of top 25 teams, even multiples of that. And so you said these elimination games this

week, Texas, Georgia, Notre Dame Pitt, Oklahoma, Alabama. These are by far the most bet games. And the three of them combined are getting more action than the rest of the top 10. So tons of betting, lots of interest. And we'll start with Texas, Georgia. Line open, Georgia, six and a half, no movement, but nearly 70% of money is. on Texas, getting the points. The Longhorns are the most underdog to cover going into the week. But it's really interesting when you look at the future market, Texas, 30 to 1 to win the college football playoff. That's the 10th best odds, but they're minus 250 to actually make the playoff.

So they got Georgia, Arkansas, Texas, A&M. Odds suggest they're going to lose at least one of those games, maybe two or more. Who knows? But if they somehow do win out, then there are a true contingent. to actually win it all. Yeah, that's a minus 250 to make it means that. Minus 250 to miss it. Oh, to miss it.

I was going to say, minus 250 to make it. It wouldn't make sense. Okay. Undergues against Georgia, likely underdogs against Texas A&M, and then they should take care of business against Arkansas, but you never know. Yeah, I wonder if what the, do you know what the plus odds are of doing it, like making it are?

I think that that might be a pretty good. good value play because i think texas could sneak in at nine and three got to win got to win this one or a and m but they have to win one of those to get to nine and three so that makes sense what what is uh what does oklahoma alabama looking like john yeah uh that line open bama minus seven they're the most bet favorite to cover on saturday 74 percent of money is on the tide but that line has come down it's at six now And we've seen in the Brent Venables era, Oklahoma, eight four and one against the spread versus top 25 opponents,

including upsetting Alabama last year as a 14-point underdog. Dude, look at that, little feather in Brett Venables cap, because, you know, good teams win, great teams cover. So if it does seem, though, that, like, a lot of action here on Texas, including me, is kind of scary. When you see a 70% public play, what does that typically mean from, you know, like the results? Does that mean that you should feel better about Georgia covering or how do you view it when 70% of the actions on one side? Well, I looked it up because it's not very often that a Kirby Smart team isn't getting the majority of bets, right?

They're always one of the best teams in the country. They're playing for national championships. In the Kirby Smart era, Georgia is 20 and 9 against the spread. a 69% win rate when they get less than 50% of the bet. So bet against Kirby Smart and the dogs at your own risk. Historically, it's not gone well for you. Wow. That is very interesting.

As someone who picked George in this game to cover, I'm now feeling much better. I don't know if you know this, John, but Andy can't lose this year. He's hovering over his own body. I mean, I lose like four times a week. I just win like five times a week. I got to do. close to a 60% clip this year, which is pretty unbelievable. So you mentioned before we started recording that there's a little nugget about Arch Manning that you've noticed.

I'm curious what that is. Yeah. So the most bet prop on Saturday is Arch Manning over 20 and a half rushing yards. He's averaging 23 rushing yards per game this season, averaging nearly eight rushing attempts per game. But if you look at his game, last three weeks, minus one, six, yards four yards he's going to run the ball uh does he you know does he break one off is he able to you know get enough yards 20 and a half uh doesn't seem like a lot especially given how many times he he's prone to pull the ball and go for it but where are you guys laying on this one

well this is this is where it drives me crazy the difference between how the colleges and the pros measure rushing yards because in college sacks are just taken out of your rushing yards so if he gets sacked six times now george is not a huge sack team they're not a great you know sack the opposing quarterback team so maybe he is going to have more positive yardage plays and won't have you know five sacks that just wipe out all of his positive gains and put him in negative yardage but in the NFL it wouldn't be like that that just his his actual runs where he has determined to run not where he's trying to throw would would count and it'd be easier to predict because if you were using the NFL statistical method, I would be over this in a

heartbeat. But when Sacks can get backed out of it, I wouldn't touch it. Well, especially with their offensive line, too. Like, that's the thing, right? I mean, that's been the Achilles heel of Texas program all year. Because I do think that I could just see him breaking one off for 25 yards. It's a matter of whether or not he's going to lose 25, you know, in Sacks. Yeah, that's the hardest part. Okay, John, this is a question I've been waiting to ask you all week. How should I, if I am deciding whether or not I want to bet my actual money on the Notre Dame Pit game, how seriously should I take Pat Narduzzi's comments that he does not care if they

win this game? I saw the line moved a little bit up even for it was, I think it opened it 10.5, Notre Dame favored, went up to 12 and a half, came back down to like 11.5. But how seriously should I take that when one coach is like, we don't care about this game? I think that's just setting an expectation. He knows their big underdogs in this spot. But he's also right. You know, I mean, they just got to win the ACC.

Games against Job Tech and Miami left. Technically, this game doesn't matter to them. But you probably don't love it if you're taking the points. Notre Dame open 10 and a half, up to 12 and a half. 70% of money is on the Irish to cover. Definitely an elimination, I think, for Notre Dame, right? If they lose this, what do they hang their hat on? In the Marcus Freeman era, we talked about this, I think, one of my prior times being on, Notre Dame, 15, 6, and 1 against the spread when they play ranked opponents, although the Irish have failed to cover in their last four.

Ohio State, Ohio's last year, Miami, Texas, A&M this year, USC as well. So, interesting spot for sure. Yeah, 15 and 6, and then four in a row in the other direction kind of makes you scratch your head. I think they're going to win by 75 going into that national title game. Yeah. I think that Notre Dame is probably going to set a margin of victory record on Saturday because the other team doesn't care. But I just don't know if Narduzzi's sandbagging.

That's what I'm scared. I don't want people just throwing money down on Notre Dame and they're like, oh, Narduzzi was just kidding. I definitely believe they're going to try. But again, setting expectations for fans for the selection committee that they just have to win their next two against their, ACC opponents and they can get in. Any other interesting trends you've noticed this week as we get closer to

playoff time? Heisman stuff playoffs. A couple fun nuggets for you guys. Indiana last week won a thriller against Penn State. I mean, awesome game. They're a huge favorites against Wisconsin, 29 and a half points. Not a ton of action on that spread, fairly evenly split on tickets and money, but it's the total that betters are interested in. It's sitting at 44 and a half. 80% of money is on the over. I'm just curious where you guys laying on this one because I don't have any doubts that Indiana is going to put up points. But what about Wisconsin? It's a, you know, it takes two to tango here. Their offense averaging less than

13 points per game. And we've seen Indiana clamp down on opposing offenses throughout the season. So does Wisconsin do the badgers score double digits this week? No, I would say no. They're Punter was their leading passer last week. I will say part of this is probably because Wisconsin's defense has actually been playing really well. If you go back to the Oregon game and you look at the UCLA game, they have two freshman linebackers, Mason Posa and Cooper Catalano. Both of them had to start against Oregon. They both obviously started against Washington.

They combined for 30 tackles against Washington. 30. I don't think they will be as effective against Indiana's offense. I don't know the weather on this game. on the Washington, Wisconsin game was pretty awful. It was rain that turned into snow. So it may be that weather was affecting Washington's offense in a pretty negative way, too. I suspect Indiana can cover the total by themselves in this game.

But I also think Indiana's defense will put Indiana's offense in very advantageous field position situations. So I don't, with 80% on the over, I don't think those people are crazy. I think there's a reason they're there. Yeah, I also think that this game could just be 37 to 6, and the under could hit still. Yeah, definitely one to watch on Saturday. And then the last fun nugget for you guys, Texas Tech, 9 and 1 against the spread, best record in college football. They've been covering almost every week for betters.

They're 24-point favorites versus Central Florida. 94% of money is on them to cover. You don't often see lopsided action like that. but not too surprising, given their record against the spread. Where do you guys fall on this one? It scares me because Baron Morton's playing hurt. And Texas Tech without Baron Morton is a different team. And because it's such a big number.

They're going to beat UCF because their defense is going to smother UCF. But are they going to beat UCF by 25 points? Is it totally different question. I get confused, too. Like, John, if I just called you every Saturday morning and said, How many teams or how many lines have 90% of the public action or whatever the number you just said was? And then I bet the other side blindly. Would I be a winning better?

Hey, I think we all know you can't blindly bet anything one way or the other. That's never going to work out. But what's interesting is you just don't see it usually that lopsided, no matter the game. Maybe in lower levels outside the power. hour four. But we'll see if it continues to be this lopsided come Saturday. A lot of betting will happen between then and now. But again, not too surprising to see a team like Texas Tech who's covered getting a lot of early action. So John, I have one more question for you before we let you go. I have been picking Iowa games almost strictly based on weather. And we're about to do our Mulligan segment.

When we picked on Monday, the Iowa USC game, the forecast was for your typical glorious Southern California day, high 68, low 53, sunny, that's changed. It's now going to be 64 with a 99% chance of heavy rain. Should I use my Mulligan to take Iowa to cover here? USC open six and a half. I haven't seen any movement yet. Actions on them to win by a touchdown. Total 49 and a half.

Betting is on the under. Again, with weather and stuff, it really has to be extreme to truly impact a game. So rain, a little rain, not going to. Have you driven on the 405 when it rains? Those people don't know what to do with themselves. I was going to say in L.A. doesn't, I think a slight breeze is dramatic for build conditions. But seriously, though, like cold weather, not really that big of a deal, unless you get down into, like, the zero, the truly like just. Like that Chief's Dolphins playoff game a few years ago.

Right. beers are freezing in your hand at that playoff game that that's insane rain it would have to truly be a monsoon where the ball is just slopping wet there's just standing water all over the field that's the only time we really see so like when those ACC teams tried to play in a hurricane a few years ago yeah or extreme wind good example yeah 20 plus sustained mile per hour when the ball is just moving from left to right every time they throw it uh so i would need if i were you i would wait to to see what the weather truly is come Saturday. That is why Brent Musburger used to say you are looking live when he was on the NFL today. That's what that meant. It was a signal to the betters. That's the weather for this game.

Yeah. You're just going to, I think you should do it anyway, but I would love for, you know, the stats. I don't know if John can help us out with this, but like 99% of something happening two days from now seems a little extreme too. I don't know. They're already writing stories on the local news in Southern California.

Like, it's going to rain on Saturday. Watch out. So I'm ready. John, thank you so much. We're watching those Archmanning rushing yards. That is now, I'm zeroing in on that for this game. Thank you so much. Thanks for having me on, fellas.

Good luck with your bets on Saturday. Thanks, John. All right, all right, it is Mulligan time. Andy, before we get to Mulligan time, I wanted to share a stat that I asked John, about that we didn't have time to ask while he was on. Oh, yes, please do. It involved, you know, a little inside baseball asking somebody on the spot to look up a

stat while they're on the air isn't the best way to make a podcast. So I thought I'd ask him once we stopped recording. Since 2005, and this is regarding the Texas Tech comment that I made about how lopsided the public action was, I asked him after, since 2005, what the record was for the public when they are 80% heavy or more on bets or on side of a bet. And he said it's, and with the sample size he used, it was representing at least one top 25 team, that 50% of the time it hits in 50, it doesn't. So if you think that like fading the public is a lucrative gambling strategy like I did, that that number would be kind of surprising for you. I just wanted to share that because we did allude to it while he was on.

Yeah, it's basically you're flipping a coin. So I was surprised by that too. All right, already, it's Mulligan time. I mentioned this. I tweeted about this on Wednesday. The weather forecasts for Los Angeles has changed. And I've been picking almost exclusively based on weather with Iowa games. When we picked this game on Monday, we were expecting the beautiful sunny Southern California

day at the Coliseum. It will not be that. It will be a 99% chance of rain. and I'm wondering if that kind of dulls the USC offense some. My other option is I could get, I have Northwestern to cover against Michigan. I can get two and a half more points for Northwestern because that line's gone up to plus 12.5.

Or do I just flip to Michigan? Because I'm actually starting to feel a little bad about that pick too. Yeah. What are you going to do, man? so I because it's not going to be freezing cold when it rains and I don't know like I don't know if we're talking sideways rain like frog strangler type rain or just like a light dusting of rain I mean I just feel like it's your brand to go Iowa like it feels I don't want to touch this one though because I don't know what kind of rain we're dealing with I don't know what kind of crappy weather we're dealing with it's 99% rain is crappy enough to get Iowa the cover is the question question, and I'm not sure it is. So you know what? I'm going to take two and a half more points with the Wildcats at Wrigley Field.

So give me Northwestern plus 12 and a half. Okay. Yeah, that's the smart play. I'm going to just change my Alabama line from 7 to 6. There you go. I don't know if there's any side I want to flop, and there isn't really enough movement on a side that would make it make sense. So I'm just going to take the extra point,

and then the touchdown gives me the win instead of the push. I like it. Oh, actually, you know, you and I or I was at least on the right side of the movements like I didn't I didn't really improve most of the lines that I took are are worse now if I were to switch that's the the one I felt really bad about taking was Northwestern but the fact that the the line moved toward northwestern or I'm sorry move away from Northwestern toward Michigan more and I got more points I'm just going to take more points yeah so nobody switched aside this week but we did improve the line

Maybe I can get a W here. I don't know. We'll see. I did say earlier on in the show that I do think that Alabama or George are going to lose this week. So I guess, like, based on what I just did, I'm kind of tipping my hand on which one it is. I just have this feeling deep, deep, deep in my plums that Texas is going to win the game. I don't know why. I have no analysis.

There it is. It's in the plums. It's not in the stomach. I don't know why. I don't trust your plums either. I don't trust your plums or your stomach. Yeah. my plums were right in the Vanderbilt switch so that's true that's true Ari's

plums pick of the week that's a new segment too we could get that sponsored I don't know by who but we could get it sponsored a grocery store we'll do it a grocery store or some restaurant that sells Rocky Mountain oysters I think that would be good have you ever had that that sounds like something you have eaten I have not I'm sure it's fine I'm sure it tastes like beef would you try it or would you not be able to try I try You're the type of person that would eat anything no matter what it is if people eat it because you're more interested in the delicacy of something and you can get out of your head of what you're actually eating, right? Right. And I know that nobody died eating it, so I'm okay. You know which one gets me that I eat that is just disgusting?

Squid. Like, if you're actually thinking about what you're eating when you're eating calamari, it's kind of a gross thing to think about. But it's so delicious when you drop it in that deep fry. Well, everything's delicious with the deep fry. Do you like calamari when it's not deep fried? Like, will you just eat roasted or grilled? I'll eat grilled octopus. Grilled octopus is delicious. Is there a difference between octopus and squid? I think it's the same thing.

They're not the same thing. It's bigger. Very different animals. Are they both cephalopods? What the hell? What the hell? I don't know. Yeah.

Octopuses and squid, both cephalopods. Also, cuttlefish are cephalopods. I've never heard that word before in my life. Of course you haven't. All right. I know nothing about anything, by the way. I don't know anything. that's not true i know i know a lot about three things and nothing about anything else but that's okay

i think that's a smarter way to be i think okay i think the way i am where uh useless knowledge pushes out things that are useful to me in my life i mean the fact that you pull cephalopod out of your ass is just bizarre like i'm sorry like that's not something that a normal person would just know again not helpful in my daily life though really not how is it not you just made our podcast better okay well maybe i picked the right job if i had a real job it would not be helpful one in one bit so i i just googled cephalopod and started it with a s if you wanted to know how well all right well good good news people are writing in to ask for your answers to their questions so this is the one topic i do know

but like i just like googled cephalopod and uh the picture that came up it's like yeah i don't want to eat that but then i guess if you put anything in batter and put it into a deep fryer it's good. So first question comes from Mark asking about blue blood programs and how they do or don't make the playoff. Dear Andy and Ari, I'm wondering if these four schools bolster their best wins so much of the next month, but also take on a loss to a lesser team. Do you still make, you still think they can make the CFP? So the scenario, Texas beats one of Georgia, Texas Stadium, and Arkansas, but loses to the other, which is something we've discussed on the show already. Oklahoma beats Alabama and Tuscaloosa, but loses to one of Missouri or zombie LSU.

USC beats Iowa and Oregon, but loses to UCLA. Michigan loses to one of Northwestern or Maryland, but beats Ohio State again. Are we going to think they all could get in if the scenario was right? Yeah, I think Texas is the most likely to get in in this scenario. I think the USC one is really interesting, especially if Michigan were to win against Ohio State because USC has beaten Michigan. Well, yeah, I think that like in this scenario,

the hope is, I mean, if it happens to multiple ones, then we might have a debate. That's what we talked about with Oklahoma and Texas. I wonder what would happen. The thing that you have to do, and it's hard to do, but you have to transport yourself into the future where if one of these teams beats one of the legacy teams of the season, how much that does for them.

Like if Michigan beats Ohio State, like everyone's going to be like they're nine and three and they beat Ohio State. Like it's going to be really hard to keep a team out that has the best win, especially if they get to nine wins. And I think too. It's really going to depend on who else has 10 wins too. Because like is Vandy sitting there at 10 and 2 or did Tennessee just beat Vandy and they're sitting there at 9 and 3?

Yeah. is Oregon So Oregon lost to USC in this scenario Did Oregon also lose to Washington Or are they sitting there at 10-2? I think that he's those matters too If you have really big wins And you get to nine wins this year

Can these guys get in? And like I've been floating the Texas Oklahoma 9 and 3 now for weeks. I think if you be in team will make it this year. I think if you beat playoff teams it matters. Yeah. Now, although I will say this

and I don't know if it's because the committee or just because the teams that need this argument the most are the loudest online. But it does kind of feel like the narrative of who you lost to was carrying more weight than it used to this year to me. I don't know if that's just perception or if that's reality, but like

it's because Notre Dame lost to two good teams. That's why. Yeah. Who you lost to. It's a very complicated situation because Notre Dame and one of the teams Notre Dame lost to would buy one in a game that had multiple either fluky or controversial plays.

that team is one of the best three teams in the country right now. Yeah. I mean, who you lost to didn't use to carry the weight. So I don't know if it will at the end of the year. I think who you beat should carry the weight. And they would all be in that position. Like I wonder if Oklahoma beats Alabama, if you could pencil them in.

Now, I know they have two more games after that. Obviously, outside of losing two in a row and getting a four- They could lose them both conceivably. If they beat Bama and get to nine, wins is Oklahoma, and my gut feeling at the moment would be yes. We shall see because, like you said, you think one of those teams are going to win this weekend, either Oklahoma or Texas. And I think you're probably right.

I think that's what the stats would suggest, so even though they're both underdogs. From Joe in Kansas City, damn it, Ari. You picked the horns this week, which means they will lose. Is it coincidence the horns won four in a row when you jumped off the bandwagon? I think not. Who would have thought you'd have sort of cosmic control, go pick on another team? Hook them, Joe. Anybody who's listened to this show for five years?

Andy, how long we've been doing now? Five years together? I think so. You need to know by now that I might say I quit Texas. I never am fully out on Texas. It's still always lingering in the back of my brain. And I am proud, one of my best career accomplishments ever was being the loudest person at the forefront of the Texas is going to be back bandwagon before it happened.

Because it wasn't always cool to think Texas was good. Three years ago, if you thought Texas was good, you had a tinfoil hat on. Texas is back, folks. Thank you, Tess. I think that they are back just because they're consistently good and have great players. I could be humbled in a big way. Like, this is the thing.

Like, I'm telling you that I feel my plums of Texas is going to win this week. But, like, if Texas is who they told us they are and, like, you trust them at face value, they're going to get their ass kicked. So, like, and that could happen. Like, that can happen. Like, I'm not, you know, I'm not saying that they're going, I feel like they're going to win. They have good players.

I think it's an interesting thing to latch on. I think it's a good spot. But if they lost 38 to 10. like because I couldn't get a forked down like I don't know so happy we're going to be there I'm so happy yeah because when we first thought we were going we're like ah well that game's not as good anymore uh it just turned out to be one of the games of the year and I cannot wait it's going to be great I just want to watch the emotional roller coaster that is you no matter what happens I'm not going to so quit asking I'll never give up on you Texas and I've been an

Aggies guy too so you know all these people would they think that these is going to be orders have and I thought it was I just can't quit you from broke back now oops wrong sound board we should we should like add

some like really interesting like pop culture soundboard stuff yeah I mean we're using this one quite a bit like when we talk about the Brian Kelly LSU situation that man his money yeah my daughter has been walking around our house saying you can help me shave my armpits

because she didn't want to go to school yesterday and I said, you can either go to school or you can stay home and you can help me shave my armpits. But what was I going to say? Oh, yeah, these people think that like we have all these inherent biases and that like we live and die by the results because of our loyalty to or or hate for a team. It's like I've been stumping for A&M and Texas all year, man. Like I feel like they're both good. It's going to be a good game and I can't wait to see it. And I think that like this is the final.

test. Like Texas is either, it's either do it or you're out. Do it or we're done. Like if they lose on Saturday, they're done. We're not talking about them anymore. Next question from Arthur. This is a coaching carousel question. Andy and Ari just posted this on the on three UGA dog vent, but wanted to share with you as well. Based on the teams that are doing well this year, I don't know that I was exactly rushed to try to hire a sitting head coach from a power for program. Here are the head coaches the top 14 teams in the latest AP poll with the position they held before they were. hired at their current school and the year they started as head coach. Ohio State.

Ryan Day was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State. Indiana, Kurt Signetti, head coach of James Madison. Mike Elko, head coach at Duke, Texas A&M coach now. Alabama. Kalin DeBore, the head coach at Washington. Georgia, Kirby Smart, defensive coordinator at Alabama, Ole Miss. Lane Kiffin, the head coach at Florida Atlantic. Oregon, Dan Lannning, the defensive coordinator at Georgia.

Texas Tech, Joey McGuire, the Ler, the Lime. linebackers coach at Baylor. Notre Dame. Marcus Freeman was the defensive coordinator at Notre Dame. Texas, Steve Sarkesian was the offensive coordinator at Alabama. Oklahoma, Brent Venables, was the defensive coordinator at Clemson. BYU, Kalani Sataki, was the defensive coordinator at Oregon State. And Vanderbilt, Clark Lee, defensive coordinator at Notre Dame. And finally, Georgia Tech, Brent Key was the offensive line coach at Georgia Tech. Before he got the job, he was obviously the interim after Jeff Collins was fired and then retained it. As Arthur points out, only two of those were sitting head coaches at Power Conference schools.

Kaelin DeBore and Mike Elko, that's it. The same number of position coaches took over programs and got them better. That would be Joe McGuire and Brett Key. It's a crapshoot, Ari. It's a crapshoot. I mean, I actually think that you're more likely to hire the next great coach. if they aren't a head coach. I mean, the math is there.

You know, and that's what we've been talking about for weeks. And I appreciate the research that was just put into the question because, like, you know, you, it's like, Lane Kiffin or bust for everybody. It's like, go find a defensive coordinator somewhere that's really dynamic personally and has a great plan and can connect, can connect with people. Like I just, I feel like being a head coach at a lower level, like Kurt Zignetti. being a head coach right now is like 10% like anything other than being a dynamic person you know like X's and O's and game plan and culture like everybody wants to have a good culture

but like can you get into a fundraising room and make people laugh can you make people connect with you that's what Cole Kubelik said it stuck with me like are you a relationships person that can make people like you can you exist in multiple types of rooms could you raise money like all these different things like we look it's like oh you know james franklin's x number of games against it's like does that really the most important stat when hiring somebody well and this is the thing so how do you how do you explain that though to like the florida fans who absolutely want a sitting power conference head coach to the lSU fans who feel like they deserve a sitting power conference penn state same thing um you know i deserve a lot of things i feel like

I deserve a 2024 Porsche Targa, you know, but there's not a lot of them for sale in my price range. I don't know. Like, is that going to drive the bus there? Like, because Florida fans are in this, you know, illusion that they deserve something that doesn't exist. Like, you'll get the best player person for the job.

I've talked about how much I hate the, you can't hire the person who's anything like the last person you hired. Like, Florida basically, it seems like they've eliminated any potential G5 head coach because they hired a G5 head coach last time. Yeah, when the G5 coach at Florida actually did not fail because he wasn't able to figure out with the infrastructure of how big time football works.

He failed because they couldn't win games, which was not what he failed for X's and O's reasons more than anything else. If you're revamped the, from what I understand, you're closer to it. Tell me if I'm wrong, didn't he revamp the entire recruiting department? Didn't they sign better players than they did before? Or didn't they? Better players, talent on the rostering up.

When you think about getting somebody from a lower level, your fear is that you won't be able to amass talent at a clip enough, a clip good enough to compete. That's not what happened. He just did a bad job on game day. I don't know. I don't know. Like, yeah,

I agree with you. I understand the difference. I mean, our country does it, right? But it's hard, it's hard, though. Like, if I'm Pat Kraft, the Penn State AD,

I probably, like, here's the thing with Penn State that I think is really, interesting. If Penn State were in the market two years from now and Bob Chesney had already gone from James Madison where he is now to be like Boston College's head coach. If Bob Chesney were in year two at Boston College and won eight games, you'd hire him at Penn State and a heart. There wouldn't even be a debate over here. And how much of a difference really is there between those? Just hire Bob Chesney now. Like you need this like this false

stepping stone before you're comfortable hiring somebody, it's just like, I agree with you, Andy. Now, the thing that I don't know is, like, inhuman nature, like, if you break up with somebody and you go through a terrible breakup, you probably don't want to date a person that reminds you of the last person. Like, I understand that's 100%. You know, if you did something that you're saying that Penn State should not hire a bald Vanderbilt coach again. No. I'm not saying that they shouldn't. There's this actually a weird situation because I will argue to the death

that James Franklin was a very good hire by Penn State that just ran its course. Yeah, James Franklin and Penn State should be like a couple that still loves each other but they're just not in a functional relationship anymore but they appreciate each other and they're not like one comes over to the house and just hangs. I still go to Thanksgiving together like this is kind of weird.

Yeah, yeah. You know those couples that like are like, yeah, you know, my ex-girlfriend comes over for Thanksgiving still? And it's like, yeah, I think that's what they should be. I was reading about I started watching this show Pluribus on Apple TV Plus I heard that's great

great show you don't like sci-fi but Ray Sehorre right the creator of it is the person who created the greatest television show of all time right Vince Gilligan for Breaking Bad yeah and Ray Sehorne who's one of the stars of Better Call Saul which is another Vince Gilligan show

she's the lead in this and I was I was reading about her because I didn't I remember her from Better Call Saul and Franklin Bash but didn't know much about her but what I found interesting her husband she was introduced to by one of her best friends who happens to be that guy's ex-wife and they're still really good friends like all of them are really good friends because things don't work don't mean that you don't love each other doesn't mean that somebody had to wrong

somebody maybe you just grew apart and they did i don't know james franklin didn't wrong penn state if you're james franklin's always welcome to come eat at the kitchen island at pen state I just don't think this is happening in real life, but I always like to think about it in this terms with college football. Like, Ed O at LSU, for instance. Like, Ed O could go back to LSU at any point and get a standing ovation, right? Correct. I think that James Franklin should be entitled to going back to Penn State in five years for a halftime show of some sort honoring the 2016 team or whatever. I don't know what team.

And you have a standing ovation from those fans, right? Yeah. So in that case, maybe Clark Lee is the guy who reminds you of a relationship that, like, you know, you hold near your heart. I don't know. I'm not even saying that you shouldn't date somebody that remind you of somebody in the past. I'm saying I understand the human psychology that would make you want to avoid it. Right. Yeah. Right. But the other thing I will point out about Arthur's question, and we get this thrown back at us whenever I do the thing of the best coaches in college football right now, we're coordinators when they got hired. For the most part, those were guys who ended up in great situations from the beginning. And that's, so Ryan Day took over a fantastic situation at Ohio State. Urban Meyer was leaving, but Ryan Day still got to keep Mickey Marotti, the strength coach, Mark Pantone, who's in charge of personnel there, like the really key parts of the infrastructure were still in place. When Dan Landing went to Oregon, it wasn't because Mario Cristobal had gotten fired. Cristobal went back to his alma mater he was winning there and he went back to his alma mater so

there wasn't a rebuild there uh Georgia they fired mark rick but it was because so just like pen state fired james franklin just now he was winning but not winning enough they wanted to go from 10 wins to 12 and so they they made the change I mean how much of being a successful coach is the place too like and I know that maybe that's different in the last two years maybe the place means way less than it ever did before in the history of college football. But like, you know, Dan Lanning's a great coach. I'd hire him to go anywhere at this point. But like how many coaches could have taken Dan Lanning's job when he took it and also done

well, like probably a lot, right? A lot because Mario Cristobald left a lot of good infrastructure in place. Yeah. And Oregon is willing to help you. Like Oregon's administration, that is another thing is it's similar to pro sports in this way. administration at a university ownership at a pro team like certain pro teams have great ownership and always do things the right like the runies with the steelers like they're going to make sound decisions the eagle's ownership seems to make very sound decisions

jerry jones is a lunatic and does not make sound decisions uh the the cardinals owners were historically cheap and and the bingles owners are historically cheap like all of that matters Yeah, don't forget about the Haslums in Cleveland. They're doing a great job. Bang-up job up there. You mean the giant Tennessee boosters? Mm-hmm. Who were part of a booster turf war that probably had a lot to do with Tennessee

wandering through the wilderness for 10 years. Yeah, those people. Producer River and Jordan teaming up there. I'm not talking about this. I don't know. I don't know how much the Haslams are still involved in Tennessee. stuff, but if they are at all involved in Tennessee, it is remarkable that Tennessee hasn't exploded. I think Danny White, the athletic director of Tennessee, has calmed a lot of that

stuff down. And so they are run a little bit. Because the volunteers and the Cleveland Browns have nothing in common. No. Tennessee feels very competently run in the last five years. And I think that's probably a lot of Danny White's doing. But One more question, Ari, and this is a really good one, and I'm glad Justin brought this up because this is something I thought out a lot over the years. There's been a lot of talk about contracts and buyouts lately. Could it be possible to put in a contract to fire a coach for cause based on losses? For example, let's say Ryan Day leaves Ohio State to St. New York Giants job. His career winning percentage at Ohio State is 88% currently. If a coaching candidate

offered a contract where they would need to have a winning percentage above 88% their first three years or the school could fire them for cause with a reduced buyout would a coach and would an agent advised to sign that contract okay the agent would not advise to sign the contract so here's the thing also 88% is the highest winning percentage of all time yeah i i don't you don't have to put the number there but yeah could you could you write a contract that said you could be fired for cause for losing too many games yes you can there's nothing stopping anybody from doing that before it was we're molding men here when it's not about wins and losses well that was all BS but nobody ever put it in a contract but it has been put in

contracts before like when loss record has been memorialized in contracts before sam pitman's contract at Arkansas for example the buyout was tied to his record over a certain period of time so it is it's not like it's illegal to do it but the question is if Yeah, the thing, Andy, and you know, you're the contract guy, funny enough, considering, you know, our backgrounds. But, like, I also feel like getting people to sign something that's not typical is harder. Like, you need to, it needs to be commonplace and like, 100%. Yeah. Well, you're also, you're making someone give something away.

You're making them give away some security. If you, if you ask a person who has some leverage, because usually you're hiring somebody who's got another job already, maybe has some other people going after them, if you're asking someone who has leverage to give up a bit of security, you have to give them something in exchange. This is like where we're talking about the other day with that column I wrote. If you want to do that, there's a way to do that. Money doesn't solve every problem, Ari, but money solves a lot of problems. And in this particular problem, money's the solution.

You offer them more money, but you say, if your record drops below this win percentage after year three, we can fire you for cause and pay you $0. Did the agents that you converse with appreciate you putting this on the internet, by the way? I haven't to ask you. A couple of them did. A couple of them didn't.

A couple of them did. A couple of them didn't. Listen, they know, but they understand. They're not stupid. They understand how the game is played. And they're just going to work with the leverage they have. And they're going to try to fight for the best deal for their client. That's their job.

Like, we villainize Jimmy Sex. so much. Why? Jimmy Sexton, listen, he does a great job for his clients. That's his job. If they got a great deal and the university's on the hook for a ton of money, that's the university's fault. I have a friend named David. David's been my best friend since we were in elementary school. David is an attorney who lives in Scottsdale, Arizona right now. David is now in a loving relationship with children. But back when we were in our 20s, David met this foreign exchange student who stayed in America, who was one of the single most beautiful women I've ever seen in my entire time. I've seen this. It's called American Pie. It's a great movie. Basically,

she was almost- They met Nadia. Okay, cool. Yeah. And by the way, this person looked like Nadia. Like this is like, and this person texted David one day and we were laughing because he sent it to me in a screenshot back. This is 10 years ago. Can you deal with somebody who gets extremely jealous, has an incredibly high sex drive, wants the passwords to your bank accounts and wants to know where you are at all times. And David wrote back, yes. He stopped reading at sex drive. Well, she threw that in there as a way to roll over all the other things. And he wrote back, yes, period. But he sent me the screenshot of what she said in this text. And like, he didn't realize that, like, I was going to latch on to what he said and not what she said. But this is like what

contract negotiation is like with coaches. It's like, oh, the person is pretty. Oh, the person can be mine. Have anything you want. You know, like, you're not thinking about the consequences of like all the things that could go wrong from the circumstances. If you're a guy who's single and you're talking to one of the most beautiful women that's ever given you the time of day ever, you'll give them the bank account information, I guess. Like he didn't care. Like, in theory, he never would have given her his bank accounts, but he would agree to anything in that moment to get her to like him. And like, I think that that is the exact same thing that happens every single time a coaching negotiation occurs with anybody with leverage with a college program that is destined or sorry desperate to win. Is that a fair example? A hundred percent. And that's why all of these rational thoughts of like, well, could they put this in the contractor? But it's like, yeah, they could. They are so determined and so desperate to get that person, they will give them the most advantageous deal possible in order to lure them to wear their school colors on the sidelines on Saturdays. Right. Because these are very, very emotional and by the way this is the first and only time we will ever compare elaine kiffin to shannon

elizabeth uh touch me jim uh andy that's right though it's like everyone's like how could these buyouts get to this point it's because the person gave them their bank account information because they were hot none of these buyouts are the way it was supposed to go these buyouts are the result of irrational emotional thinking that is hard to cure in the moment we can have these discussions on November 13th about what they should do or what the prudent financial move is for these schools, but they're like, a hot chick, hot chick. That's how they signed their coaches.

Am I wrong? Pay that man his money. Pay that man his money. That's all I have to say about that. All right. Things didn't work out well for those two, by the way. They're a relationship.

No. Yeah. Hey, never twist an Oreo when you got a good hand. Get me in his money. All right. It's been a fun week. It's going to get more fun with these games. Got some games Friday night.

Got Louisville Clemson. Got a little Minnesota, Oregon. And then Saturday, big day. We'll be in Athens. Action in Tuscaloosa. Action in Pittsburgh. Action in Provo. Action in Los Angeles.

Really bad week to lose your iPad on an airplane. Don't worry. Yeah. We'll talk to you on Saturday.