Andy & Ari On3 - Why the SEC will NOT CROWN Alabama, Texas, or Georgia in the 2025 season | Oklahoma CFP? Clemson, Oregon repeat as Champs? Ohio State - Best WR Room?

Episode Date: August 21, 2025

As Andy released his bold predictions for the upcoming college football season, it's Ari's turn to take a crack at it now, and he's got some good ones. Is Arch Manning really that much of a lock to be in New York for the Heisman Trophy? What will the College Football Playoff look like with the new protocols; and will any 9-3 teams make this year's 12-team field? Plenty of questions to be answered in today's jam packed show! (0:00-0:30) On Today's Episode(0:31-2:06) BetMGM(2:07-5:48) Intro: Nebraska's Challenge?(5:49-11:41) Ari's Bold Predictions: Arch Manning in NYC(11:42-13:57) Will the new CFP protocol have any impact?(13:58-17:44) The Big 3 in the SEC?(17:45-25:05) Will a 9-3 team make the 12-team field?(25:06-36:38) Oklahoma's chances of the CFP(36:39-45:55) Ohio State's WR Room(45:56-52:45) Big Ten Champs: Oregon?(52:46-56:41) Austin Simmons at Ole Miss(56:42-1:06:23) Why Clemson will be undefeated ACC champs(1:06:24-1:11:34) Texas will be national champs(1:11:35-1:14:49) Revisiting last year's bold predictions(1:14:50-1:15:24) Conclusion: Dear Andy & Ari tomorrow As Ari dives deeper into his bold predictions, he makes some bold claims regarding Oklahoma in the playoffs. Do the Sooners really have any shot to make the 12-team field? Ari seems to think so. In Big Ten land, Ohio State boasts an electrifying wide receiver room. Is this the best wide receiver core in the country? And will Jeremiah Smith even be the top target in Columbus? Watch here as Ari pleads the case for Carnell Tate to have a big season. Remaining in the Big Ten, Ari is big on the Oregon Ducks. After a stellar regular season a year ago, Ari believes Dan Lanning's squad is poised for another big time season. Do you agree? Can the Ducks get it done? While Dabo Swinney continues to lead the Clemson Tigers his own way, Ari has bought in to the hype and has predicted that Clemson will repeat as ACC Champions. Do you agree with this take? Can Clemson really keep a perfect regular season record on the way to the ACC Championship? Want to send in your questions to be featured on Dear Andy & Ari? Send in your questions to:[e-mail]@on3.com Our show is presented by BetMGM! See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel.  Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/C Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/5tR8Ptw8t3E Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail]

On today's show, it is Ari's bold predictions. One, he's told you on the show before, and I've been incredulous, and he's doubling and tripling down on that one. It involves Arch Manning. He's got a really interesting one involving the college football playoff, and who gets in, and how. And also, a surprise.

out of the SEC. We've teamed up with BetMGM this season. We will be using BetMGM lines to make all our picks and we'll have special offers for our listeners each week. When you join BetMGM, you'll get access to a variety of Parlay selection features like same game parleyes, live betting options and more. If you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB as in college football, CFB, and you will get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with bed MGM. Here's how that works. Download the bed engine app and sign up using the bonus code CFB. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. You'll receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure you use the bonus code CFB when you sign up.

Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See bedmgmgm.com for terms 21 plus only U.S. promotional offers are not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler in the U.S. Call 8778 Hope N. Y or text Hope N. Y. 4673-69 in New York. Call 1-800 next step in Arizona. Call 1-800-3-2-0-0-0-0 in Massachusetts. Call 1-800-bets off in Iowa or 1-800-9-81-0-2-3 in Puerto Rico. First bet offer for new customers only, subject to eligibility requirements, rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7,000. days in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Don't forget, if you haven't signed up for BedMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB and get your $1,500 first bet offer today. Welcome to Andy and Ari on 3 presented by BetMGM. Another big day of predictions. I made my bold predictions yesterday. Ari makes his today. Here's another one. I predict.

Nebraska fans will accept the challenge that was laid out for them this preseason you know what I mean are you did you see the news what was the news so Sean Callahan of Hustker Online

reporting on Wednesday that Nebraska will have 121,000 cold tall boy beers ready for sale for each game day at Memorial Stadium I see. Challenge accepted. I guarantee that's what the Nebraska fans have said. Yeah. I think that that's a pretty acceptable and reasonable challenge. Do you not? I think so. 85,000 seats. Now, some of these are going to be under 21, so they can't consume them, obviously. And then some people don't drink, so they can't consume them. But I think those who do partake will make sure everything sells out and they may have to up their order. after a couple of games. Of course, everyone will drive home responsibly

because greatest fans in the world. But I believe in you, Nebraska fans. I believe in you. You know what I remember about going to a few Nebraska games? One, their fans are really, really nice, and the people there are lovely. And two, it is the worst pre-game

parking situation I've ever encountered. It's a matter of finding the lot. Once you figure out where the lot is, it's fine. Right. But the two times I've gone, the people who are trying to show you where the lot is don't know where they are and the traffic is incredibly terrible in that area. And I know that traffic's terrible at every stadium on game day, but it was particularly bad enough for me to remember it. So maybe it was just... The good news is when you find your parking spot, there will be a cold tallboy waiting

for you. Yeah, it's worth the trip. Yeah, Nebraska's, uh, you know, I know that's not the point of the show and they're not in my predictions, but I've noticed, you know, with Josh paid on earlier in the week and some other things I've seen on the internet that people are We're starting to drink some of that tall boy Nebraska Kool-Aid. So I don't know, I don't know what it's going to be like. Nebraska, since you Thursday next week. Very interesting game. Very interesting game.

This is probably the most anticipated Nebraska season of the last decade, no? Oh, yeah, easily. There was that weird random year where everybody decided. There was Scott Frost's second year, where everybody decided that Nebraska was suddenly going to win its division in the Big Ten. And nobody could explain why. everybody decided that at once but

yeah Nebraska and Cincinnati next week playing at Arrowhead Stadium Nebraska is a six and a half point favorite according to bed MGM so we'll talk a lot about that

next week but yes my 11th bold prediction 121,000 cold tall boys won't be enough that's my 11th bowl prediction yeah because that's like what like two tall boys a fan

one point three no i know but you also have to like take out of like kids and yeah yeah and i'm thinking girls at least one per quarter on all of them and and i'm not going to drink in the fourth quarter obviously but but you know because that's crunch time but one one per quarter feels good so make my 11th prediction come true nebraska fans 121 000 not enough all right all right let us get to your predictions you're number one you've said it on the show before i have Sat here slack-jawed, as you say. But I'm going to let you take it from here. Yeah, I mean, I don't know how much time you want to spend on it

since I just went on this diatribe last week, but Arch Manning will be in New York for the Heisman Ceremony. Like, it's going to happen. It is my full belief that Arch Manning's last name has almost worked against him this offseason in regards to the discourse about a ceiling. I think people believe that he is overrated, that he wasn't worthy of being a five-star prospect and that all of his entire aura as a human being is hype,

all because of his last name and that has almost mitigated some expectations from the general fan, not Texas fans, but the general fan on like what he's capable of. I think I saw Coach O talking to a podcast that might have been busting with the boy. It was part of my take. Yeah, talking about how he loved Arch.

That's right. That's right. And he said that Arch Manning is the closest thing that he saw in practice to Joe Burrow in the time since Joe Burrow played. Again, I don't know how much stock you put into that, but that's a coach who coached one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the sport

who is making that their practices, by the way. And has been at their practices. So, like, I think that the likelihood of him not being very good is very low. And I think that the combination of his last name will turn into a frenzy

and a hype and fulfilling of that hype and the odds of him not having a good statistical season on a team that's going to be competing for the championship or low. I think it's a virtual lock that he'll at least make it to New York. See, it's the utter certainty that you say it with. that makes me giggle.

I mean, he's 8 to 1, and I'm saying he'll go to New York. Like, I'm not even saying he'll win it. Like, it's almost like... You've said it in the past. You've said, there is no way he doesn't... There's no way he doesn't go to New York unless he gets injured, in my opinion. Now, I... There's so much that can happen beyond injury.

The one thing that I am concerned with, with him, and I don't know if it's quite as bad as DJ, but he gets banged up a lot, doesn't he? Arch? No, there's the Ohio State game, I believe he was banged up, but that's pretty much. Okay. Yeah, the concussion that he supposedly got. I don't know if he was a concussion, but we know he didn't come back in the game. And you've seen him and how his body got back in the game.

So, and he didn't come back into the game. But yeah, you know, that's that's kind of my, my MO. If we're going to do it, man, we're going to swing. Okay. Like, guess what? I'm certain that he's going to New York. And if he doesn't, I'm wrong. Oh, no.

You know, like, I just like, I want to lean into it, you know? I come up with a scenario where he doesn't. And it's just that two or three other quarterbacks are amazing or two quarterbacks are running back, just have incredible statistical years lead. I think probably not because of the Travis Hunter thing, but I think we're going to be back to mostly quarterbacks, mostly guys whose teams are in the college football

playoff hunt, which is why you are making the prediction you are making. What do you think the odds are that Texas isn't in the SEC championship or at least a shoe in for the playoff in the end of November? I think there's a 75%

chance that they are all the good things. 25% chance that the bad stuff happens. I don't know what would have to happen for them not to make the playoff. So, producer river asked a good question producer river asked us a good question off stage how much better than quen ewers does he need to be

for all of this stuff to happen or what if he puts up the same season as quen ewers which by the way got them to Atlanta and then got them to the semi-final and they were competitive in the time play that game because quen ewers got injured and i think missed two and a half game so it's hard to do the statistical like breakdown i think if he throws for 3,000 yards and has 35 total touchdowns I'll be in New York? I tell you what.

I'm actually looking at Quinn Ewer's numbers from last year. Arch can surpass these. He's going to, yeah. Pretty easily. He's going to. 7.8 yards per attempt. That is

it's actually pretty average. He had 3,500, 3472 passing yards. Obviously, they played deep into the playoff. He played 14 games, even though he missed two. So we think just with my little back of the envelope math, that Arch is probably going to have a better year than Quinn. I mean, we may be, you're talking about 3,000 yards. I'm thinking, now granted, these are numbers that are post-SCC championship weekend. So it would be after 12 or 13 games for Arch. He may be in the 3,500 to 4,000 yard range at that point. He may, if he plays really well,

you're forgetting too is there's virtually zero rushing attempts that i i'm not looking at when you was his numbers like you are but he didn't run the ball and arch is yeah arch could potentially score some touchdowns on the ground as well he will which is good for our little fantasy game especially but uh yeah i think that the more you talk about it to me i think you'll start to come around to what i'm saying well i'm just doing the math here and i and i and now i'm I'm feeling much better about your prediction than I was because I just I think about all the things that he's manning they're going to be in the playoff he's going to New York dude like it's not that controversial it's 8 to 1

that he wins it 8 to 1 you know those you know those odds never work out the way they're supposed to but I'm just saying like from a statistical standpoint me saying he's going to New York when the actual math is saying it's 8 to 1 it's not that hot when you really boil it down that's all right let's let's go to your second one which played off the news from yesterday. What's that second one? The second one is no college football playoff protocol will have a tangible impact

on the selection process. And we did talk about it a little bit on Wednesday, but college football playoff did announce on Wednesday that there would be a new strength of schedule and strength of record metrics that are used by the committee in order to help them formulate their rankings. And my bold prediction, which is not bold at all, it's actually what's going to happen,

is that there will be no tangible impact. You won't feel it as a consumer and you won't even see it as a result of these new ones because they already did take into account strength of record and strength of schedule and quality wins and all those things. So like I said on the show on Wednesday, unless you can explain to me specifically how the new criteria and metrics that they use would have impacted the results of last year, which I don't know that you could quantify. I am unmoved by the somewhat exciting information that really doesn't change anything.

So that's not, that one's kind of boring, but like that. I think you're right. I think that that felt like lip service to the conferences to me more than anything else, to the SEC and the Big Ten specifically. And not. It would be significant if they considered things that they didn't already consider. Yeah. They're already.

Right. Human beings consider it. Now, what I would love for them to do, love for them to do is, as a tiebreaker, punish the team that scheduled crap in the non-conference and reward the team that scheduled a better non-conference schedule if it comes down to that. If you've got two teams and one's the last at large and the other, you know, the other one's right on the cusp, which they would have already done. If Indiana were 10 and 2, they would have lost the tiebreaker. It would have already happened.

Like nothing, there will be no difference is all I'm saying. The thing that would be interesting is if they, introduced a new metric that we never discussed at all and that became a thing that I think that would be more interesting but like did we not spend weeks and weeks and weeks screaming at each other and at people about strength of record last year we did I mean we did it's not new so um cool all right let's go to the next one that that one's kind of a I don't mean to be a the next one we kind of previewed this one yesterday this is spicy now yeah so I actually molded over after the show yesterday and I thought you know what I'm going to go for it

one of the big three in the SEC will not win the conference so instead of taking Texas Georgia and Alabama to win the SEC I am taking the field and the field includes teams like LSU Auburn Florida Ole Miss South Carolina Texas A&M Oklahoma and Mizzou so on the surface you probably would not take any of those teams I just listed head to head against

Texas Georgia or Alabama but when you take them in the aggregate, the odds of all of them not being good enough or the odds of at least two of those seven teams I just listed being really good out of nowhere or kind of not out of nowhere we're anticipating some of it seem relatively low as well. And also too, like I think that like another bold prediction is is Texas, Georgia and Alabama have an awful year for their standard, which I think is like one of the three might have an awful year. And by awful like nine and three's all. Yeah, nine and three type of year. But like what if Georgia goes nine and three for their standard they still might make the playoff that's an awful season for them so but like also too like

the fact that you can get ls u in the field is such a because ls u winning the championship uh the conference championship i should say would not be a holy crap moment at all no it doesn't seem that far fetch like we've talked about florida as a potential playoff team we talked about auburn as a potential playoff team a and m as a potential playoff team lsu of course south carolina like none of this is that far-fetched, and it's not saying that Texas, Georgia, or Alabama won't make it to Atlanta. You're saying that one of those teams could be on the other side and lose to one of the teams that we just talked about in Atlanta, which in a one game scenario, absolutely that's possible. Yeah, I mean, like what? Is it impossible to anticipate that or picture a world where Garrett Nussmeyer just lights the world on fire?

Is it impossible to anticipate that Jackson Arnold takes a big step? I mean, I don't know. They've got really good. DJ Lagway, Marcel, exactly. I mean, like, what's the one thing that all those teams have in common? Maybe outside of Mizzou, if you're not a big pro-Prabula guy. They all have a real pro-provula or Samhorn. Yeah, sorry.

Could be both. That would be no. If he doesn't start, by the way, that would be terrible. Because he missed the playoff run last year for this. Well, right now they might be playing to, but I'm sure it'll be one. by the end of the season. But this is not that far-fetched. And I know I said I think Alabama's going to win the SEC.

I'm not backing off that. But the idea that one of these other teams could be on the other side in Atlanta. Just to illustrate my point, though, you picked Alabama to win the championship. And obviously not that hot of a take. But of the seven teams that I just named, LSU, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas, A&M, and Missouri, and Oklahoma. How many right now would you trade Tyves Simpson for their quarterback? Six of the seven. DJ Lagweig, Garrett Nussmeyer.

I don't know that I'd trade him for Marcel Reed. Lenore Sellers? I would definitely take Lenore Sellers. John Matier? Yep. Austin Simmons, I'd take two probably. So five of the seven? Yeah.

You have Ole Miss in that group too, right? Of course. Okay, yeah. Yeah, I think we might be sleeping on homeless. Yeah, well, we'll get that later. Yeah, yeah. Which then segues to the next one number four here, Andy. And we're going through these faster a little bit than yours.

So maybe we'll get to a longer conversation. I'm sure we will. But a nine and three team or teams make the college football playoff this year. And this one was predicated a lot on the thought exercise that we did. at Big Ten Media Day with Indiana and actually trying to like peel back the curtain and come up with the actual odds that a team that has Indiana

schedule could come out of nowhere go 11 and 1 without playing anybody all that good and actually like make it through the Big Ten with a favorable schedule and do it the way that they did and like the odds of that repeating seem very low like everything had to happen for Indiana

last year the fact that their schedule set up that way the fact that Michigan wasn't very good the fact that Washington wasn't very good the fact that they they avoided Penn State and Oregon in the regular season and only played Ohio State. Like the odds of a team emerging from the Big Ten out of nowhere at 11 and 1 without, with those circumstances seems pretty low. And they were a block. If Indiana didn't exist, a 9 and 3 team makes it last year.

Is that a fair statement, right? That's a fact, right? It is a fact, yes. Like if Indiana was 8 and 4 or whatever and it was a non-factor, they would have. Or if SMU had a bad year, yeah. Yeah, one of those two teams was a blocker of a 9-and-3 team, and you had nine three teams waiting in wings three of them obviously the three-headed monster between uh you know old miss south carolina and bama we're all sitting there waiting there

i don't know how they would have decided between those three but they would have decided uh i think that the likelihood that two or one nine and three teams in the playoff this year is likely and that we need to massage the idea that you have to go 10 and two to get in because i think that's going to die as soon as this season especially with how competitive you know the the sport i think in general my anticipation for this year, Andy, more than anything, is more parity than I've ever had in my adult life in the sport. Is that a fair expectation for this year? I think so.

I think everybody's getting a little bit deeper, talent is spreading wider. Quarterbacks are good everywhere. Quarterbacks of grit, it's going to be hard to be 11 and 1 or 10 and 2. It's really going to be hard. So the fact that you feel like the odds that like there will be 9 or 10, 10 and 2, teams are better. Like I it'd be fun to go back and add it all up. I probably should have of like how many times in the past 10 years have there been more than five, 10 and two or better teams at the end of the year. I don't think that it's that often. So yeah, the fact that we got 12 now, you're going to be dipping your toe into nine and three land. And nine and three land is a pretty scary place because I think there's going to be a lot of nine and three teams. So like, do you want to talk about protocol? There's a lot of variability. And it's one of those things where there's going to be a clog. and a lot of candidates for that last one. Because the second you drop down from 10 and 2 to 9 and 3,

you go from a pool of 12 teams to a pool of 20. And then you have to. I'm going back through the years, Ari. 2023, there were 12 teams at 10 and 2 are better. Okay. Before you got to a 3-loss team. 22. Two, you, so Kansas State was a three-loss conference champ at number nine, Utah was a three-loss conference champ at number eight, but they had won ten games because they had won their conference.

So you could get, like, you didn't get to another three-loss team, so you got to number 13, Florida State at nine and three. But you're seeing where the idea of a three-loss team should not shock you. But, like, also, like, the entire notion of the 12-team playoff working out perfectly has always been there, right? It's like, oh, this is the great perfect system. That's the magic number. But, like, the correlation between 9 and 3 and hovering around 11 through 14 in the rankings is ramping. And it's harder now than it was then because the conferences are bigger. It's harder.

Yeah, that's right. They don't play each other. There's less data. There's less head-to-head results to go off of, which then brings us. back to the number two prediction, which is the protocols won't matter because you want to know how they would have deciphered all those five or six, nine and three teams by looking at who played the hardest schedule and who had the best wins. That's the way it would have gone. So those are those are my thoughts on the nine and three thing. But I think that like people come into this year,

like we even had a discussion on on Wednesday, Andy, if like if Notre Dame is 10 and 2 will they get in? Yeah, 10 and 2 is going to be a safe end, I think. The question I think, that I would ask you back while we're talking about this is do you think there will be a point in the 12 team era that 10 and 2 does not get in? Only if it's a situation like Indiana's schedule last year because 10 and 2

Indiana last year would not have gotten in or would have been it may have come down to them in SMU but one of those 9 and 3 SEC teams probably would have gotten in over Indiana at that point. Yeah. I don't know that a 10th two team with this many spots will ever miss it unless it's a group of five team i i think

you're probably right i i think we are probably overreacting to indiana last year we are and it will become normalized now we don't know how long the thing's going to be at 12 i hope it's longer but we don't know if it goes to 16 then we're going to have the same conversation about eight and four yeah so north carolina goes 11 and 1 this year that would be the indiana right that would be yes that that would be that's probably the closest thing to it because you you beat all the teams and then you lose the clemson you would lose the clemson yeah and that would be the same thing i i don't know i there aren't a lot of schedules like that in the modern makeup sport so i would argue that there's not one in the big 10 and there's not one in the cc this year although we would have said last

year that indiana didn't have that schedule either at this point that's right i wonder if if somebody will come out of nowhere and have that schedule this year. But also, too, going 11 and 1 against an easy schedule is really hard, too. Like, I think we just- So, you know, but there's North Carolina schedule me. Like if North Carolina won all their games, but they had TCU and wins over Duke, and then lost to Clemson, they would probably have to play Clemson again. So that would probably work itself out.

But, like, it is kind of similar, eerily similar. It is. Although, funny enough. What a story that would be. funny enough we're picking on north Carolina they're playing TCU in the non-conference which is ages better than anything that and UCF yeah

they had two power quote-unquote power opponents in their non-conference in Indiana has zero so you know bretick murphy wrote a column saying about you know if you read that that's pretty funny wordy yeah I felt good to have some company ruffling some feathers at on three

because I go off the deep end you're always reasonably you're reasoned and you're you make people mad but you make them mad in a healthier way i think i just i just piss people off i think i think the way you do it is is important i i i we need that yeah i the way i do it is just like i'm gonna run in uh run through a match factory with a gasoline suit on but you know that's the way it is so um yeah but i think that these are these are measured so far no oh yeah this next one though no this is the one i've been waiting for let's go nuclear i don't know how to say that word

Oklahoma. Sooners, I'm looking at the camera at you. I love you. You've accused me for years for hating your team. Oklahoma will make the playoff in 25. That's my, that's my prediction. I really think I'm going on a limb on this. And like, obviously part of this too is that you and I had to be different

and you got to pick the Auburn horse. So I picked the other horse that we were talking about. You could have picked Florida. I could have picked Florida. But, you know, would that have been that bold of a take i guess this is this feels like a more bold take just because we did see florida at the end of last season doing the things that would be required to do it this season we've not seen that from oklahoma have we have we talked about the three

the cc three oklahoma florida and uh... auburn and which one of those three is the favorite to make the playoff in our minds? Would you say Florida is the favorite of those three? No. No? Because I don't know about DJ Lagway's health. I don't know that I can pick a favorite of these three because I have serious questions about all of them, obviously. Yeah.

And I don't know if we're doing other teams a disservice by not including them in the three. These are like big brands that, you know, in the past. Right, because I think Ole Miss probably belongs in that conversation. too. Tennessee freaking made the playoff last year. Texas A&M was playing for a spot in the SEC championship game on rivalry weekend. So it's not like these are the only three outside of the usual suspect. If you tear the SEC, because we don't, that's a J.D. Pekyll bit, so we don't do that. But like, let's tier it. The top tier of the SEC is obviously the big three that I mentioned earlier, Georgia, Alabama, and Texas, right? Those are the three. Then you have the second tier of LSU.

LSU, and I think LSU even might be alone in that second tier. But LSU would be that second tier, I think. And then you have the glob. But my third tier, my third tier below LSU would be these three teams. And all teams from the second and third tier, I think it could seeably win the championship. I think it would be these three teams. Ole Miss, A&M, and Ole Miss. A&M, and then South Carolina, you would have to put it in.

And second and maybe Tennessee. I think Tennessee would be Tennessee Vanderbilt in my fourth tier. and then like Arkansas Vanderbilt I mean sorry Arkansas Missou wait where would you put Missou we haven't talked enough about Missou I think Missou's on a higher tier Missou and Tennessee might be on a similar

to this year Tennessee Vanderbilt in that tier and then the bottom tier would be By the way Ball Twitter's done with you you were dead to Vol Twitter I think at this moment like that's a that's a reasonable thing I don't know like I hope that like in order you're going to laugh Andy but like in order

to keep Vaughl Twitter on my side. Do I have to, like, being reasonable is not enough. You've got to go above and beyond reasonable. River, get up here. River, get up here. No, we're talking about, oh, hi, River. Hi. I'm sorry.

Is me putting Tennessee in the fourth tier heading into this specific year? This isn't program rankings. This is expectations of 25. The fourth tier, they just made the playoffs. A lot of their defense is returning. The biggest question mark is the quarterback and receivers. I think four is a little too low. I don't think they're second tier,

but probably tier three. Do you think that Tennessee belongs in the same tier with Oklahoma, Florida, and, uh, I mean, they all play Tennessee, Oklahoma and Florida. I'm just saying like,

do you think that I should last year? Do you think I should think that? I think they're closer than you're making it out to be. But I don't know if you need to put them in that direct tier just because, they're a tier right below. We are talking about Oklahoma, though. Okay, let's go back to Oklahoma. Okay, let's go back to Oklahoma here.

Anyway, we have to round out the conversation, though, and say the bottom tier or the three lower ranked teams, which is, you know, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Mississippi State. But, okay, Oklahoma, here's why I have them there. And I think I'm being a little bit frocky, okay, but I am absolutely hammered, hammered drunk on John Mateer hype. I've watched him in his highlights, and I watched him play last year,

I think he has a chance. Stone cold face to you, Andy, right now to be the best quarterback in college football this year. Like, that is on the table. Will it happen? I don't know. But, like, I have Mateer in my Archmanning lagway

sellers, like, group of like, holy crap, these guys are going to be incredible. I also think that people are undervaluing Oklahoma tremendously going into the year because we're overreacting. or over-analyzing what happened a year ago in thinking that that is what they are when actually I think it's more likely

that Oklahoma, one of the most consistent programs in the history of college football, had a blip bad year than it is a trend. We've all gotten so hyper-focused on how bad they were a year ago that we fixated on things that have no application to this season. They had awful injury luck, which they hopefully can subside this year. They got a quarterback that can be a star. They have a revamped or at least retooled offensive line.

they hired a new offensive coordinator. They've got the best defensive-minded head coach in the country, and they have Jaden Ott in the backfield. Like, I'm high on Dionne Burks. Like, they have guys ever. The best defensive-minded head coach in the country, you realize Kirby Smart is a defensive-minded head coach. Don't needle me with, you know.

With facts. You know what I'm talking about. Yeah. Okay. All right, second best, like, does that better? Like, did my point change? Like, I don't, like, you know what I'm talking about. So Oklahoma has the hardest schedule in college football.

This is the elephant in the room, right? Like they have the hardest schedule. They might have the hardest schedule I've ever seen. And you can't talk about Oklahoma without at least acknowledging that. But in conjunction with my fourth overall bold prediction, a 9 and 3 team will make it, I think that Oklahoma at 9 and 3 is an absolute lock to make the playoff. If they go 9 and 3 against the schedule, they are going to have multiple quality wins that will allow that metric that the SEC thinks it's just made up going into this year that

will help them, which is quality wins and strength of schedule. That's not going to help them. So I personally believe, and I think that I've come around to this, that we're overvaluing Michigan this year, but I think that if Oklahoma were to beat them, which I anticipate that they will if I had to pick the game right now, that Oklahoma will get a lot of credit for a win that may not be as sexy at the end of the year as it was at the beginning. their front half of their schedule at the river, if you could help me out and throw it back up there again,

is more manageable than the back half in terms of the South Carolina, Ole Miss Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, LSU, all in a row is a nightmare. But if they go and win against Auburn and Michigan and start of the season off 5 and O, and they go into Red River undefeated, which I think is a certain possibility,

and they play that game close. I think you go into the back half of the year with the opportunity to go 5 and 2 on the back half. and or it's only lose twice on the back half and finish nine and three with the loss of Texas. I think that that puts you in. If you're nine and three against this schedule, there's a really good chance you've beaten at least one playoff team.

And I think that's the game. If you're going to get in at nine and three, the thing you're probably going to have to have done is beat at least one of the team in the field. If there are three losses are Texas, Alabama, and LSU. That means they will have beaten Michigan, Auburn, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and

Yes, and that's going to look very good. And there's a good chance that one of those might actually be in the playoff. Now the question is, do you think that nine and three is a feasible thing? And also, do you dare to ask, could they potentially beat one of the other three

that we're giving them losses on? If you're nine and three against this, or if you're capable of going nine and three against this schedule are you are capable of going 11 and 1 against the schedule you know brent venables is a hot topic and a lot of people like to you know hey he can't coach or whatever i think he can coach um and he's also there to beat the teams that we're assigning losses to they're not there to go eight and four seven and five he is hired and his job is to go 10 and 2 or better against this against this schedule andy like that is a a fact he knows what the job is

I think that, you know, this might look awful. Oklahoma might be improved from last year and still go six and six. I think that's on the table, too. But considering what, how we are viewing them, it's almost like we forgot their consistency. It's almost like we forgot who they are. It's almost like we forgot like what they've given us year after year after year, after year, my entire adult life. I think that they have an opportunity here to surprise us.

think it's possible that if their quarterback is a household name, they avoid injuries and their offensive line can block that they are a very, very tough out in the SEC and a team that's capable of beating Texas, even in a rivalry game. You're the one last year that told me last year, oh, it's the Red River, anything can happen. It's crazy, right? Like, this is the type of year where that craziness kind of manifests, I think. So Jammater was the most sought after player in the transfer portal this year. There was a reason for that. So if he is as good is everybody thinks he is this is going to be a much better team yeah they got the they got the bermuda triangle you know they got jade not they got dion burks and they got john mature if their

offensive line can block they're going to score and that's the question yeah it's that the the biggest question is how good were their offensive line be and we won't know that until we see them play probably until we see them play michigan yeah that's a very good defensive front they got to deal with there so if they can handle michigan then they can probably handle the defensive front on the rest of their schedule, which, by the way, especially Texas, especially Alabama, especially LSU, are going to be good. What's your verdict, though? See it?

It's possible. I see it. I just think, and this is the reason I say Oklahoma has the hardest schedule in the country and not Florida, because I think if we just look at the teams they play out of order, we go, well, it's about the same. The fact that Oklahoma has those seven in a row, Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, LSU, nobody else has to deal with that kind of cumulative effect. Yeah. And I think it is going to be, like, you got to be really good to overcome that.

The expectation is that Oklahoma will be very good. I'm not taking my eye off the ball because everybody got distracted by last year. All right. Last year is not this year. And I think that everybody forgets that. I think that's fair. I think that's fair. And I think that's actually something we probably should all tell ourselves this time every year.

For life. Last year is not this year. I like it. I like it. We got to make those T-shirts. So this is about time where I snorted a big fat line and things go off the rails. So just let's just stick with me here. Okay.

And they would number six, baby. Number six. Carnale Tate will lead Ohio State in receiving this year. Jeremiah Smith, nevertheless, will be the number one overall pick in the 27 NFL. You're making Jeremiah Smith a decoy. This is either going to look brilliant or the dumbest thing you've ever heard in your entire life and there's no in between. Here's my deal. I think that Jeremiah Smith is the best college football receiver I've ever seen.

I think I thought that by week three last year. Like, I, like, I am, I don't know if I'm crazy. I don't know if there's a single receiver in college that you would take with this much information. Like, it's easy to go, yeah, well, I would have taken Calvin Johnson with the whole picture. But if you stop. Yeah, George's Tech didn't use him, right? Yeah. Larry Fitzgerald, his third year in college, because he redshirted his first year.

Trying to think, like, how many players. I don't think so. How many receivers have done this through their. their first year as a true freshman. Not many. Also, it's the body type. It's the ability. It's the ball skills. It's everything.

You can just look at him and you know he's going to be an NFL star. I think, and I wrote in the column that I anticipate he'll be an NFL Hall of Famer when this is all said and done. So you want to talk about like hype? There's your hype. That said, people obsess way too much over stats. And I think that it's possible that if they play 12 regular season games next year and every single teams sells out their defense to stop him from torching them

that there are other players on the team that might be first round picks at the receiver position as well and Carnell Tate is one of those players. Let me give you a box score, Ari. Is it the Texas one? Let's travel back in time to the Cotton Bowl. Yep. Ohio State

versus Texas. You and I were both there. Who led Ohio State in receiving that night? Cornell Tate. Correct. Seven catches for 87 yards. was indeed selling out to stop Jeremiah Smith. It is why Carnel Tate racked up, it's not a great average,

but racked up receiving yards, and also why Trevionn Henderson had the biggest play of the game catching the ball out of the backfield for 75 yards. Yeah, my thing is that if you sell out to stop Jeremiah, you will not be able to stop Tate. Now, here's where the thing can backfire in my face. Texas is just that good well that of course but here's where it's going to really backfire

Texas has a level of athlete where selling out is effective if Ohio State plays teams that they're favored by 28 points by and they sell out for Jeremiah Jeremiah is still probably going to get open like if you look at Ohio State's schedule like they play Minnesota They play Wisconsin, Purdue, UCLA Rutgers. Half their schedule is against teams that can't physically match up against them. If you play a team, like, how many teams can duplicate what Texas pulled off in the Cotton Bowl? Like, that's the question. And if you think that it's not many, then Jeremiah Smith may be triple teamed and double teamed and still get open and do what he does.

And rack up a bunch of stats. But what I do. Washington's got those two, you know, ridiculously rangy corners. maybe they can do it with less help. Penn State obviously has some very good DPs and very good athletes. Illinois has had good players on defense that have come through that maybe, but it is very rare that you're going to be able to even sell out. And I want to take you into another group of really good receivers, Ari.

Because the last one, my last stat, I think helps your argument. I think this may hurt it. So in 2019, Alabama had a stacked receiver room. So this is probably even better than Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate and Brandon Ennis

and whoever else may emerge here. In 2019, Alabama had Jalen Waddle, Henry Ruggs, Jerry, Judy, and Devante Smith. Those were their top four receivers. It's a loaded room. Loaded room. Who do you think led them in receiving yardage that year?

Judy. It was Devante Smith. The best player is going to lead them in receiving yardage, and Jeremiah Smith is the best player. Devonte Smith was the best player. We just didn't know that yet. We needed to see him in 2020 to understand that he was even better than those other first round guys.

Here's another piece of statistical trivia for. you. Who led Ohio State and receptions last year? Cardinal Tate? Nope. It was a mecca egg buca. Oh, is it Bucca. That's right. Yeah, that's right. Another first rounder, by the way. A meca egg Bucca also had, I believe, over 300 yards fewer receiving than Jeremiah. Right. When the 6-4 guy who runs faster than everybody else catches it. Yeah. Crazy things happen. So my question to you, back would be if the receptions are still there for everybody else because you have to replace Igbuka too like people forget like like Bucca's tearing it up at Tampa Bay's camp right now like he's

going to be a he may be their number two receiver depending on the the Jalen McMillan injury situation and Chris Godwin comes back yeah and Chris Godwin's hurt and they got a lot in the way their number one receiver is future Hall of Famer Mike Evans yeah uh who by the way isn't slowing down at all And it's unbelievable. He is, Mike Evans is the most underappreciated NFL athlete. But the thing is, like, I'm glad you mentioned this because this seems like it's off topic. But I remember watching Mike Evans at Texas A&M. Mike Evans was a 6-5-225-pound dude that could run like the wind.

Sounds familiar. Except if you gave me college Mike Evans or college Jeremiah Smith. Yeah. I'm taking Jeremiah Smith 11 times out of 10. he's that much more polished and skilled at this point in his career but the kid might still be growing like he's not even there physically

yeah but the the fact is though that Ohio State has picked a quarterback who's going to air it out and I think part of the reason why they did that is because Jeremiah Smith exists but if he doesn't lead the team in receptions and teams sell out to stop him from those big 70 yard chunk plays

it might be hard for him to amass the statistics that he had a year ago. That said, I might look like an idiot, and he might have 1,700 yards receiving. I don't know. I'm not betting against Jeremiah Smith. What I'm doing is reminding you that Ohio State's receiving corps

isn't just Jeremiah Smith. I'm thinking this is going to look like Larry Fitzgerald's junior year. That's what I'm thinking. How many touchdowns did he have that year? Let's look it up, but it's still amazing to me that he read sure, by the way. all right larry fitzgerald college stats he had 2003 yep 1,672 yards on 92 catches 22 touchdown

catches yep 22 yeah that'd be something okay maybe jeremiah smith won't have that many touchdown catches because that's pretty incredible yeah i don't know if he's going to have three a game but you know we we are two and a half a game but i don't know i might look like an idiot it, but I wanted to make sure that the NFL draft thing was still on there because I'm not, I'm not predicting that he's going to get worse. I'm predicting that defenses are going to take him away. Well, and the amazing thing about that NFL draft thing is we will see if Arch Manning stays in college another year we think he's going to. So he would be in that draft. DJ Lagway would be eligible for that draft.

I'm sure there are some other quarterbacks who have not yet emerged who by the end of next season will be considered first round material. I still think I might take Jeremiah Smith, no matter how good any of those quarterbacks are. So interesting that Mecca-Egbuka existed on last year's team and is going to be the bona fide number two receiver on an NFL roster right now and people forgot he existed, including you. I'm sorry, Mecca.

That's my bad. And it's not Andy's fault. It's not your fault if you don't follow it. I forgot about it until I looked at the box score. it's that that's how big of an aura that Jeremiah Smith has. And I wonder if like Carnell Tate becomes a quasi star as a result of all of that atmosphere being taken up. But we'll see. I might look like an idiot.

I'm okay with that. Number seven. Stay in the Big Ten, yeah. Oregon plays in the Big Ten title game again. This is interesting because I think everybody's assuming it's Penn State and probably Ohio State. Yeah. This is the offseason of Penn State. hype. There's never been more Penn State hype

and offseason in my professional career. And I think that it's appropriate. Penn State has a top five roster that you can make with a straight face, that comment for the first time in James Franklin's tenure. They have a returning quarterback who we anticipate might be a first round pick next year. They fix the receiver room. They have an exciting tight end.

Their edge rushers are awesome. They got an interior defensive lineman that can alter the game. There isn't really like what's the overt weakness that you would have with Penn State. And of course, Ohio State is Ohio State. I think people are anticipating that Oregon is going to take a major step back from last year as a result of the way that the season ended. And when you, we talked about this at Big Ten Media Day, when you go down the list of

players that Oregon has, it's dude after dude, after dude, after dude, at a variety of different positions, from running back to linebacker to tight end. Obviously, they're replacing their quarterback as is Ohio State. And the one thing that struck me like a ton of bricks, is that college football, as you like to say, Andy, is about knocking at the door and doing it over and over and over again. And there are three coaches this year who I believe have been knocking at the door for quite some time. That would be James Franklin at Penn State.

That would be Steve Sarkesian, at Texas. And that would be Dan Lanning at Oregon. Ryan Day is no longer knocking at the door. He firsted through the door. So I take that out, but I think that Oregon is very, very undervalued this year. And they do not play Ohio State or Michigan in the regular season, which I think would believe to be a pretty shoe-in Big Ten championship run,

even if they were to somehow lose to Penn State. I think that Oregon could win the Big Ten or play in the Big Ten championship game against Penn State, even if your prediction of Penn State winning a top five matchup is true as well. So, like, they have the most favorable schedule. And, like, I think it's right there for the taking. I think it's right there, Andy. I understand that, and I agree with everything you just said.

Here is one thing that may give me pause, and it may not even be a big deal. Oregon did have to go into the portal to shore up its offensive line. You know, we talk about Texas. We talk about Ohio State's a team. Now, they had to do a little bit in the portal, too. But Oregon had to replace three starters with transfer guys. Now, we think Isaiah World is a big-time NFL talent. Yeah, I mean, one of the ones they got also was a first-round draft.

So, yeah, that's, that's, you know, Isaiah World is one. He came from Nevada. He's the left tackle. Emmanuel Pregnan was USC's best offensive lineman last year. So it's not like they went out and got some schlub. Meanwhile, Alex Harky was a very good offensive lineman at Texas State. He's leveling up, so we'll see how he does. But they do have the homegrown type, like poncho, their center.

and I'm not even going to attempt to pronounce his real name, because I will butcher it, and I'm sorry, but I do love that his nickname is Pancho, but maybe one of the best of his position of the game. So it may be that they just plug back in, and it's no problem. This would be a bigger red flag for me if the players they got in the portal weren't awesome. Right, and weren't players that everybody else wanted.

Yeah, like the Pregnan world thing, like is a strength in my mind, not a weakness yeah and so you know you look at the defense of the players that you list when you go down that name of dudes like that right and the defense is is more homegrown they've got some transfer starters like dylan the aneman who came from Purdue who was you know big 10 freshman of the year on defense in yeah in 2023 and it was good again last year so yeah i think they're going to be fine matthello yungalai one of the best pass rushers coming back in the whole country it's hard to argue against this because they do seem to be consistently putting the other kind of like the only way this doesn't happen is just if Penn State and Ohio State

are are better and now Oregon doesn't have to play Ohio State they only have to play Penn State Penn State I mean Ohio State has to play Penn State in Michigan and Michigan's on the road this year I know that we're kind of chalking that up to a victory but that's So one more extra game that Oregon doesn't have. And Penn State has to play Oregon and Ohio State. And Oregon just has to play Penn State. They already have like a one game advantage in the race. Right.

Now, they have to play at Washington at the end of the season. That's a rivalry game. We think Washington is going to be good. We think DeMond Williams will be a good quarterback. They have to play at Iowa. We think Iowa is going to be pretty good. We don't know what USC is going to be yet. So they do play Indiana, but that's in Eugene.

The only team of the top four teams in the Big Ten that only has to play. one other top four team. Yeah. All the other three have to play two. Two. So in Ohio State plays. Just on that alone makes yours not exactly a scalding take.

I feel like I'm like that's worth a bet. That's how you would pick. That's honestly how you would pick if you were just saying I think these teams are fairly equal. How am I going to decide who plays in the championship game? If there's only one that doesn't

have to play two of the others, that's the one you'd pick, and that's Oregon. Yeah, it seems like a layup to me. So we'll see. It's not a layup because Ohio State and Penn State still exist. But I think that we are undervaluing Oregon, and I wish I could rank them higher in my poll if I could redo it. I do love that Oregon very quickly, only second year in the league is a game that's circled by everybody who, like, whenever Oregon shows up, it's the biggest game in the world. got a lot of good players. It's funny. It's a good formula. Crazy how that works.

PSA coaches have really good players. Just get great players. And when they leave, if you don't have the right guy in your system already, just go get one out of the transfer portal who fits. Yeah. The more good players you have, the better you are. It's a crazy. It's like it's easy, but it's really not easy. Oregon's done a good job of this. If I were a college coach, I would just be like, I want more good players. I think I can yeah that always works next one andy is one that i think will strike close to our hearts because we made an oversight in our draft with river when we did a quarterback fantasy draft number eight austin simmons will become a household name in the SEC and national

there is so much talent at the quarterback position in the SEC as we just illustrated earlier in the show i don't have to go through all the names but one player that has been constantly overlooked in the offseason discourse is Austin Simmons. And there are two context clues that Lane Kiffin has given us when it comes to Austin Simmons. Well, first,

if Simmons couldn't play or that Ole Miss wasn't in a position to trust him, Elaine Kiffin would have certainly gone to the port, we'll find somebody else he did not do that. Because he's never been shy about that. Two, when Jackson Dart got injured, Austin Simmons came into the game under what would have been unfathomable pressure.

This is the Georgia game. Georgia has just scored to go up 7-0 Jackson Dart is thrown a terrible pick and Jackson Dart's out it's raining you have to win this game because you've already got two losses like you can't lose this or your playoffs chances are dead

the entire stadium took a sucker punch to the gut it felt like they're like why it's this happening to us and he comes and scores a touchdown drive it seems it was it was a phenomenal drive and I get it I know we're putting an awful lot on one drive that we just happened to be there for

if I hadn't been there maybe I wouldn't feel this way about it if I'd just watched it on TV I probably would say you know what that that was a nice drive I just go with all I saw before the game from Austin Simmons just watching him interact with people

and then watching him come in and how calm he was in that situation Ari I've gone back and watched that drive three or four times this off season gets better every time that that's repeatable it's repeatable yeah also he's a six foot four alien that weighs 215 pounds

and throw the ball a mile in the air so like that also helps and he's 19 and has a bachelor's degree yeah he uh he's a special kid i think uh in the context clue of what lane kiffin did or lack thereof in the portal i think is more important than the drive but they both exist so yeah um you know just a name that i think we need to be keeping more of the tab on and i think that it was a oversight on both of our parts, and we acknowledge that, but we'll do it again to not have him selected in our way. And we had Austin, we had Austin on the show. Yeah. And I think, remember we recorded the thing and Austin clicked his, you know, clicked his browser window off. And so he was off the call. And I just looked at you and I'm like, I'm betting everything on Ole

this next year. Because it's one of those in the moment. You're like, wow, that guy is impressive. Yeah. So, you know, I don't know what that means for Ole Miss. And they're, uh, pursuit of college football playoff in 2025 is a team that I think we could make a case as being undervalued too. You know, you've seen some numbers that indicate that they've got more good players than we're giving them credit for. Yeah, and that senior bowl list that just came out this week, where their top 300 prospects, Ole Miss is one of the leaders in number of those players, those types of players. And they're right up there with LSU and with Alabama. And And I think because they didn't make the giant splash in the portal like they did last year with Walter Nolan that we sort of forgot about what they do.

They still went in the portal and got players who can contribute. Like they got DeShon Stribling, who was Oklahoma State's best receiver last year. Yeah. He's playing for Ole Miss now. Yeah. You've got guys. They got cause the titan from Arkansas. Like they got good players.

And say what you want about Lane Kiffin. He knows how to drop in offense. So should both. all these things bode well for for him okay two more andy number nine clemson goes undefeated all the way to the ac c title and kind of duplicates what organ did in the regular season last year there have been a lot of people who myself included mm-hmm that have buried sweeney buried him i thought his stubbornness to go fully into the portal was going to mean that his teams were not competitive enough on the grand scale to, you know, compete at a high level. And my original

theory on my first appearance on your show ever back in 2018 or 19, whatever it was now, 2020, I have no idea when it was. But I said it and you're like, this guy's going to be on my show more. But like that they weren't recruiting at a high enough level to maintain annual contendership, the way that Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama were at the time. And like, there were a lot of different tea leaves that you can read for Clemson in terms of their downfall. And by the way, it was kind of right because they weren't and haven't been what they were in the 2016-17 years. That said, we are here in 2025, Andy, and they have a really, really good team and they play in a very, very winnable conference. Of all the Power 5 conference champions, I think that Clemson winning the big, the ACC is the easiest prediction to make.

far easier than you know picking the winner of the Big 12 SEC or Big 10 I think that it's a baseline fact that they're probably just going to be in the playoff and like to make it a little bit juicier I said undefeated that means that they will beat LSU in the opener

and they will go wire to wire in the ACC winning all their games and I think part of this means they'll beat South Carolina too let's not forget that yeah yeah I don't know I think when I originally read your list I kind of glossed over this one I was like oh that's that's not really much of a take because I was thinking

undefeated through the ACC because that's really all I have to do to make the playoff but this also means yes they would beat LSU and they would beat South Carolina which I don't think that's very easy I think that's quite difficult

especially considering South Carolina's on the road especially considering at that point if they have beaten LSU and they have marched through the ACC that grand scheme that game won't mean as much to them but it's a rival game

so of course it'll mean something and they lost to them last year so of course it'll mean something but it's hard to go 12 and 0 it's hard to go 13 and 0 when the conference championship game tinfoil hat Thursday go for it

you think dabbo Sweeney would be spouting off all these things about being the first team ever to go 16 and 0 they were the first team to go 15 and 0 the first team to ever go 16 and 0 if he didn't love his team or do you think that was just He loves his team.

And I think if we, if we broke down every team, would Clemson be the one with the fewest question marks? I think it would be up there with Oregon and Penn State and Ohio. Well, no. They have fewer question marks than any of those teams. Yeah, I guess if you were to rank the two teams that have the fewest question marks, it would be the two teams that are in the top of the polls, Penn State. in Clemson, right? Mm-hmm. Because even Clemson has like...

State has the receiver question mark. We aren't worried about whether Clemson has good receivers. They do. Yeah, I'm not worried about that with Penn State either anymore now. I think they have good receivers. I'm worried about it until I see it. Yeah. Like, Clemson, we've already seen it.

Clemson has a true freshman running back who's just a stud too. Yeah. They've got guys at every layer of every on both sides of the ball. For sure. Yeah. And the thing that I love about Clemson that I think, will, you know, to borrow your phrase, travel more than anything, is their defensive line is going to be nasty. And I think that the reason why I came around to the 15 and O thing is, A, what Dabo was saying. But B, I was thinking about LSU's number one weakness last year and the thing that they want to fix the most, which is the inability to run the ball in crucial situations.

And the fact that they're going to go. As Peter Woods appears on the screen. They're going against the team that that's going to be incredibly hard to do against with the additions of Will Health at the end position. um like clemson's defensive line can beat you by itself i think um and what is lSU's biggest question mark offensive line it's tough it's tough go of it um yeah and that's part of the reason why i'm leaning clemson in the first week while also believing that lSU could be a playoff team or an cc contender um i still just think that clemson is a notch above some of these other teams and it turned out that like the the ability to maintain a roster and keep it

together while also adding important pieces through the portal. It wasn't a lot, but it was important, makes Clemson all of a sudden a more well-rounded team and an era that might have over-corrected in the portal. Like, it was wrong. I think we, I think we overestimated how much the NIL era would affect Davosweeney. We thought he would handle that poorly. And so the NIL era and the transfer portal, they're the same and they're, they're related, but they are different.

Davo's philosophy is, I'm going to recruit, like, and it is a deep philosophy, and you and I have actually had discussions about how he offers people, how you can't take official visits anywhere else if you're committed to Clemson, all of that stuff. All of that is in the service of creating a cohesive team that understands one another, that loves one another, that will play as one. the transfer portal is anathema to that. The antithesis of, there are certain words I have a hard time pronouncing.

It is a tough one. Of Clemson is like what Oklahoma State's dealing with this year. Like somebody tweeted on Wednesday, I saw it, and I wish I was better about writing down things that like caught my eye, but somebody's like, gun to your head right now, could you name a single player in Oklahoma State's roster?

And it wasn't to make fun of Oklahoma State. It was just a it was just a thought to show you that their roster turned over so much that it's incredibly hard to keep track of who's even there anymore. And like Clemson keeping together their team makes you feel good in terms of the... Yeah, well, right.

You remember when these guys got recruited by Clemson. Like, I remember when Sammy Brown committed to Clemson. Yeah. I remember when Chris Visina committed to Clemson. That's their backup quarterback, there now this is all a thought exercise because we haven't seen clemson play yet the thing that would be a real drag and i don't know if this will actually happen but as if clemson you know goes 15 and oh and then gets matched up with a super team at the end of the year what's left of

super teams they play in alabama or they play a georgia or an ohio state or something at the end of the season in the playoff after going 15 and oh and then get the the organ fate which is we are really really good and much better than most teams but still not good enough to beat the teams that I don't. Well, one, the change in the seating process, I think, fixes that. Right. So they probably don't have to see that team. Not out of the gate. Yeah.

Yeah. Two, I think they can hang with those teams because I think those teams are not so much deeper than Clemson like they may have been a couple of years ago. But the Clemson question has never been about, are they good enough to dominate the ACC? The Clemson question is, if they'll ever be good enough again to win the next? national title. Right. And that's what we're waiting to see. Will the before we completely correct course and stop criticizing Dabo Sweeney for his

lack of roster flipping, I think we need to see them stand on the same field with one of the three best teams in college football and play them for four orders. If Dabo does this, if he pulls this off, I think he should be able to laugh in every one of our faces for the entire offseason. If Davo wins another We all buried him. He will be in my mind firmly cemented as the second best coach

of our generation. Behind Nick Sabin, who's probably the best ever. We're not going to play that game. Although there are certain elements of what Davosweeney is doing that, I think would be more impressive than what Nick Saban did,

if I'm being honest with you. Yeah. It would be the ultimate vindication. All of the criticism he took. Building a program, winning in multiple eras, doing it the same. same way, I think would be something.

Yeah. Yeah. And especially because he was right and we all were wrong. And there is something to keeping a team together, going through some stuff together, and figuring it out. As I was looking through hotels for us, because we're going to the LSU game, Clemson, I saw some hotels in Spartanburg and I laughed because I thought about that caller from Spartanburg.

Tyler! From Spartanburg. And I don't know how far away Spartanburg is. is from Clemson, but it made me laugh. It's not far. And I do wonder what Tyler's thinking. I don't think Tyler was a plant, by the way. I think all of that was real.

And- To find that guy. I would have them on the show. We should have Tyler from Spartanburg on the show, because I wonder, now, look, if they lose to LSU, Tyler from Spartanburg's probably going to call in and be like, see, told you so. But I think they have a very good chance of competing for a national.

title this year. Yep. I'm excited to see Clemson play. Yeah, 15 and 0. Last one. You're reading it there if you're watching first before I said it, but if you're listening, Texas wins the national title. Not a hot take, kind of everybody's take.

Picking the national championship is a bold take. We're doing it in August. All right, I might have gotten to 10 and ran out of gas. I don't know, but like this is, this. This is, I mean, I'm very confident that they'll do it. I don't know if they'll win the SEC. I'm not even saying that they won't even lose to a team like Oklahoma. I think that it is Steve Sarkesian's turn.

When I look at the coaches that have broken through, you have looked at coaches that have amassed an insane amount of talent. Ryan Day at Ohio State, Kirby Smart at Georgia, who have done it the super team way. And it took some time for them to actually win the games on the field. but they eventually had the rosters at the right time to break through, and I think that that's what illustrates Texas' season this year. They are a team that has more players than most.

They have a coach that has been battle tested at times and have come up short in big moments. But what I saw out of them against Ohio State and how they were able to hang in tough against that team, the thing I thought of when I walked off the field in Dallas after that game, after that game, which we already referenced with the Jeremiah Smith one, was I can totally see myself standing on a field like this a year from now, talking about how Texas broke through.

It seems appropriate timing. It seems roster-wise they're there. And Alabama and Georgia have question marks. Ohio State isn't what they were last year. There are very good teams, Penn State. Oregon still exists. Clemson exists. But I think when it all is said and done, Texas will be the champion this year.

so I think I know your answer to this but this is more rhetorical than anything else because I think these would be the guys we talk about breaking through so you think Steve Sarkesian is more ready to break through than Dan Lannning or James Franklin I don't know about more ready I think he's been knocking longer and I think that the reason why I'm comfortable picking Texas is that they are knocking in the same ways that Ohio State and Georgia did like I think that like Penn State knocked a little bit last year in Oregon knocked, but in Oregon, I even think more so than Penn State, like Penn State's doing it more of the Clemson way than the Georgia way. Yeah, I really think it's, it's, it's landing in Sark, and Sark does feel a little bit ahead right now. Right. It's like James Franklin's been knocking, but James Franklin is knocking in a way that, you know, his team finally came together and had enough pieces coming back. Like, they didn't do this by being a recruiting juggernaut. And like, I don't know if I'm still at the point yet as a human being to, I think the time might come in 2029, 2030, where you start picking teams to actually win the title that didn't recruit that

way. But Texas and Oregon, to me, are the two teams that have a mass talent that way. And what has made SART different than the previous two Texas administrations is he develops them once they get there. And they've already, they've done a great job creating NFL players since our got there two years in a row that they belong on those fields and i actually think that despite the fact that i'm shocked that they didn't end up beating washington when they played two years ago that this texas team last year was more of a more of a national championship level team than the one before it and now i think this team with argumenting if things come to play ryan wingo colin simmons aunt hill i don't need to go down the list uh you can help me pronounce the

safety's name because it's spelled weird and I always freak out whenever I write Taffy Michael Taffy yeah and you can watch by the way you can watch Michael Taffy and I believe Colin Simmons and there's one other Texas player and a couple of A&M players in a Sonic ad that's very funny with Terry Cruz it is spectacular where he teaches them how to act for their NIL commercials it is if you have not seen that yet it's awesome and then also C.J. Baxter exists like they've got guys all over the place. It just seems to me to be the next in line in the traditional way of making a championship

level roster. Now, that might not, maybe James Franklin will knock them off. Maybe Clemson will do it. I don't know. But the mega team era still has a high impact on me in Texas as close to a mega team that hasn't won a championship that you can come up with. And I think now is the appropriate time to pick it. I think it's going to be fun to watch.

and they've now become the team everybody hates and wants to see knocked off. I don't know. I used to do this to you? I do. And I was like, it ain't happening, buddy.

They can't make NFL players anymore and boy, Sark has proven that wrong. Yeah. So I think he's next up. You know, I don't know if it'll be this year. I think it will be. That's my prediction. But if not, it seems with Texas and Sark

that it's a matter of when, not if they will do it. We'll be very exciting to find out. We will have to keep track of these. I was going through my bold predictions from 2024. We didn't do this on yesterday's show, but let's see how many I got right. You didn't have to do this because you weren't working here yet. But I want to hear yours. And if not, you can leave the mailbag episode on Friday on it. This will be the most electrifying college football season since 2007. I thought it was pretty

electrifying, but I don't know if it would, it didn't really. I would use that prediction for this year. you're probably right here's a bad one five SEC teams will make the first 12 team college football playoff only three did yeah I mean you missed but the first three out were all SEC teams so it wasn't terrible

Nebraska will be 7 and O entering the Ohio State game Illinois was one that handed in their first loss and so that ended that Colorado will make a bowl game got that one oh this one hurts

Miami will play in the ACC title game. Miami should have played in the ACC title game. I did not predict them to lose to Georgia Tech and Syracuse. I like all these. I like all these from last year going back. First Manning will start at least one game for Texas, but Quinn Ewers will remain QB1. Nailed it.

I got that one. The Heisman Trophy winner will start the season with a plus 2,000 or larger betting line. I got that one. Yep. Because Travis Hunter was plus 4,000. Yep. that was a miscarriage of odds right there that was wrong well but who would have we we weren't we weren't sure the electorate was ready for that yeah so uh bailer coach dave iranda will be this season's version of neil brown which you hear that and you're like oh neil brown got fired no no no neil brown saved himself in 2023 that was right you're right on this and dave randa saved himself in 2024 yep that's correct you did pretty good keep going The most productive tailback duo in the country likely will be at Ohio State, but don't count out a pair of transfers at Missouri.

That would be Marcus Carroll and Nate Noelle, replacing Cody Schrader. That didn't work out. Especially with the running back duo at Penn State. Yes, yes. Liberty will go undefeated, but we left out of the college football playoff. They would have been left out had they been undefeated. But Kennesaw State took care of them on a Wednesday night and then ended up losing some more games too. like a huge underdog in that game, too.

I think Kennesaw State was like a 20-8, a 30-point underdog in that game. Yeah. Yeah. And they were first year in the FBS. So, but yeah, that was, Liberty was not as good as they expected. I actually think they're going to bounce back this year, but it's one of those where the schedule's so weak that it probably doesn't matter. Yeah. Was that 10?

I did all right. Yeah, you did pretty good. Yeah. We'll see. I think yours, I think yours have a better chance than mine this year. I don't know. I don't know. I mean, my second one isn't even really a prediction. It's just the fact. So like that I'm already ahead of the game. Yeah, as I said, that's correct. I can tell you right now. That's correct. But, you know, it'll be really fun to go through these again in December and see how we did.

Yep. So guys, we've made our predictions. Hey, hit us with yours. Because dear Andy, dear Ari, coming on Friday. If you don't feel like asking a question, just throw some great predictions at us. I love to hear what you think's going to happen. in this season. Andy Stapleson3 at gmail.com. R.E. Dot wasterman aton3.com. Send away. We'll talk to you again on Friday.