Andy & Ari On3 - Win totals with College GameDay’s Stanford Steve! Can Notre Dame top 10.5? Will USC top 7.5?

Episode Date: August 6, 2024

“Stanford Steve” Coughlin of ESPN’s College GameDay joins Andy to talk win totals. But first, we’ve got a preseason poll!The first coaches poll is out. Georgia is No. 1, Ohio State is No. 2, and everyone disagrees with pretty much every other team’s placement. Now seems like a good time for Andy’s annual rant about why we have preseason polls and why they’re never going away.Monday also brought bad news out of South Bend. Notre Dame left tackle Charles Jagusah tore his right pec muscle at practice during the weekend and will have to miss the season. That’s a massive blow, because the Fighting Irish had chosen Jagusah to replace first-round draft pick Joe Alt, and the redshirt freshman seemed on the verge of a breakout season.Next, it’s time for win totals with Stanford Steve. We had so many to talk about that we broke the conversation into two parts. (Part two will be on Wednesday’s show.) Today, Andy and Steve discuss…Notre Dame (10.5 wins)Miami (9.5 wins)Florida (4.5 wins)Indiana (5.5 wins)USC (7.5 wins)Oklahoma (7.5 wins)We wrap up with what the College Football Playoff would look like if it was reflective to the Pre-Season Coaches PollWant to watch the show instead? Head on over to YouTube and join us LIVE, M-F at 8 am et! https://youtube.com/live/eaLLIn9T3zYHost: Andy StaplesGuest: "Stanford" Steve CoughlinProducer: River Bailey

Welcome to Andy Staples on three. One more indication that we are so close to actual football. We have our first major preseason poll. That's right. The coaches poll came out on Monday. Georgia number one, Ohio State number two, Oregon number three, Texas number four, Alabama number five. It goes on from there. But we have a poll, which means football is close.

What does the poll mean? Not much. Everybody's just guessing. It's probably time for me to do my annual why we have preseason polls rant, because I know there are some of you probably thinking, wait, why do we have these anymore? There's a 12-team playoff. We don't need them. We never needed them. Never needed them. The human mind craves things to be put in some sort of order. So if USA Today didn't contact a bunch of coaches and have them vote, and the Associated Press didn't contract a bunch of reporters and have them vote, everybody would still put out

their own preseason poll because you enjoy reading them and you enjoy arguing about them. And that is what we're going to do right now because I think the coach has got a couple things wrong. I think I George at number one. I accept that. I respect that. I still think Ohio State should be number one. I look at Ohio State this year and I see Michigan from last year. I see a bunch of players who should be in the NFL right now who came back for another year, specifically on defense. And I think Ohio State's defense is going to be straight up nasty. Now, so will Georgia's. So if you had to pick between Ohio State and Georgia,

I would say that's a pretty tough call. I would say the game will probably go down a lot like the last time they actually played, which was in the Peach Bowl after the 2022 season, and it came down to a field goal. But I just like the way Ohio State has constructed this defense. We'll see on the offense. And I think that's probably where the coaches are going. They're probably saying, look, I know Carson Beck. I know what he can do at quarterback for Georgia. I know that Georgia is going to have a great offensive line. Ohio State's biggest question

is the offensive line. So I get where they're coming from there. Oregon at three. This one, I kind of need to see Oregon win some of these big games. Now, what's interesting is the first truly big game Oregon plays is against Ohio State. And if Ohio State is really the number one or number two team in the country, well, they're probably going to win that game. But I need to see Oregon beat some of these teams that are potentially playoff bound. And we haven't seen that yet because we've talked about this a bunch of times. Dan Lanning is a young coach. He will learn.

He will improve. But he's 0-3 against Washington and Oregon. Washington was the team that was kind of in their way the most his first two years there. And he hasn't beaten them yet. I don't disagree. The first regular season game last year, the first time they played, I don't disagree with the fourth down calls. I think he did the right thing on those. They just didn't execute. But they got straight up physically dominated at the end of the Pac-12 championship game.

Like that can't happen. So I need to see the evolution there. Need to see the evolution of Oregon before I believe in them as a top five team, as the number three team in the country. You have four Texas and five Alabama. I think, you know, Texas gave us reasons to believe last year, and this feels okay. But you guys know I'm higher in Alabama than most people. I think I had Alabama number three in my post-spring rankings. I had Ohio State one, Georgia two, Bama three.

I think Alabama's roster on the offensive and defensive lines specifically stacks up with Georgia and Ohio State. And I don't know that anybody else's does. We'll see with Texas. Texas's offensive line should be very good. Texas's edge group should be good. Remember they brought in Trey Moore from UTSA to a group that was already fairly deep. Can Texas replace Tavondre Sweat and Byron Murphy at defensive tackle? That's really what that comes down to. Is that group going to be as good as it was last year? Because I think just about every other part at Texas feels about right. So that part we'll find out about.

We'll look a little further down the list. Later in the show, we're going to talk about what the college football playoff would look like if the coaches poll predicted the future 100% accurately. If the coaches poll is exactly what the CFP poll looks like at the end of the year, it's fascinating. But we'll go down the list. By the way, we also have Stanford Steve on today's show from College Game Day, from the Scott Van Pelt Sports Center, aka the best sports center. We're doing win totals.

Some of our win totals probably don't agree with these rankings here. Like it's just not going to happen that way if the win totals that we talk about come to pass. So part one of win totals with Stanford Steve later today, part two tomorrow. Speaking of those win totals, the one we start with is Notre Dame. So they've got Notre Dame at number seven here in the coaches poll. Notre Dame has to be 11 and one to be number seven with their schedule. Like 10 and two will not make them number seven at the end of this season. They're going to have to be 11-1. That means you drop a game at Texas A&M to start, maybe, or you drop the Florida State game. That's probably it.

If this team's 11-1, they probably lost one of those two. But to finish in that spot, you've got to be 11 and one coaches still believe it in Michigan. I'm with them. I still believe in Michigan too. I think that defense is going to be very good. I think there's three first rounders on that defense. I don't know what the offense exactly is going to look like, but I suspect it's going to be pretty nasty up front. Still, they're going to be pretty nasty up front still. They're going to be able to run the ball. I get the feeling that Alex Orji winds up being the QB.

Clayton Safey from the Wolverine said no. It could be Davis Warren. It could be Jack Tuttle, which the offense would look very different if that's the case. But I can envision an offense where Alex Orji, who's probably the best athlete on the team, the best pure athlete, scares you to death with how he can run the ball. And that opens up things in the pass game. Now, is that workable against the best teams on their schedule? Because they do play Oregon and they play Ohio State and they play Texas. We'll find out. But that feels like the most sound choice right now.

But we'll have to see what they do. The first Big 12 team that appears in the preseason coaches poll is Utah at 13. So they're saying Utah is going to be the best team in the Big 12. They don't have any group of five teams in their top 25. I do think, I think there will be a group of five team in the top 25 come the end of the season. I, you know, whether it's the American champ, the Sunbelt champ, we'll see if Liberty, if Liberty goes undefeated, it means they beat Appalachian State.

I think they probably would need Appalachian State to be very good, would probably need them to be the Sunbelt champ so we'll find out Rick in the chat says the top 25 is fun it gives all the shows Monday and Tuesday content throughout the year and at least 10 different versions of shows before the season it's also funny hearing people defend oh trust me as someone who makes shows, we love the top 25. We love them. But I just, I laugh every time because you shouldn't start it till October. Yeah, but somebody would just do it anyway. Because it works.

It's reliable content. But we'll talk a little more about the top 25 because I want to show you what it will look like as the 12 team playoff. I want to show you what that coach's poll would look like as the 12 team playoff. Cause it's, it's really interesting. So we're going to talk about that later in the show right now. I want to talk to you about your reading habits, your posting habits. Are you subscribed on three yet? Are you a Gators fan? And don't have a subscription Gators online. Are you a Michigan fan and don't have a subscription to Wolverine?

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and he won $1, one American dollar. I don't know what it would be in euros. I don't know the exchange rate today. All right, enough, enough shameless shilling. But I mean, a dollar is a hell of a deal. Let's be real here, everybody. So we have news. And unfortunately, this is bad news.

This is my least favorite part of preseason. And that is when we talk about the injuries that will take somebody out for an entire season when they didn't even get to play a game. In this case, it is Charles Jagasaw, the redshirt freshman left tackle for Notre Dame. This is a guy that they were so excited about. He was one of our outlier players at on three. One of the guys that our guy Charles Power really loved kind of before everybody else. And Charles Jagasaw was a freshman last year. They weren't sure exactly how long it would take him to develop.

By the end of last season, they're like, oh, you're ready to play. And he was going to be the replacement for Joe Alt. You know, Joe Alt, top five pick in the NFL now, and it looked like Charles Jagasol was the next guy in line to be that next one. He's a redshirt freshman, so not even draft eligible after the 2025 season. It was going to be very exciting to watch him develop. Now, we're still going to get to see him in 2025, but unfortunately, we don't get to see him in 2024 tore his right pec muscle. He's going to have to

have surgery and it just sucks. So Tosh Baker and Emil Wagner who were competing for the right tackle job against one another, one of them is going to be the left tackle and one of them is going to be the right tackle. And you know, it's a, It's a tough blow for Notre Dame. Remember, they open against Texas A&M. It's going to be a nasty defensive line for Texas A&M. Jackassaw was going to be only making his second start anyway, but they felt very confident that he was the guy who could anchor the left side of that line.

Now it's going to be one of those other guys. We'll see. They've got a freshman who Now it's going to be one of those other guys. We'll see. They've got a freshman who they believe is going to be good, but he wasn't an early enrollee, so he might take the Jagasaw track where you see him play later in the season. But it's such a tough blow for Notre Dame, and this sucks, and we're probably going to have a few more of these before we get to the games. I hate it, but it is just kind of part of the preseason where we're going to get these injuries that cost people seasons before they ever even get to play

in a game. So good luck to Charles Jagas on the rehab and we're all pulling for you. Other Notre Dame-ish news. We'll see if it affects Notre Dame adversely or not. But a Fong bomb dropped last night. That's right. Our guy, Steve Wiltfong. You know what a Fong bomb means. It means somebody's committing or somebody might be flipping. And in this case, the Fong bomb is that Deuce Knight, the quarterback from Mississippi who has been committed to Notre Dame, Steve Wiltfong predicting he may flip to Auburn. So Deuce Knight and his family were at Auburn recently. Remember we talked with Philip Dukes about all those commitments that Auburn was getting, especially from the state of Alabama. Well, that group at that big cat weekend also included deuce night and his family. And it seems like things are percolating there.

And this is a, an interesting situation because remember we talked with about Juju Lewis, the quarterback from Carrollton, Georgia, who's committed to USC that Auburn was in hot pursuit of him. Auburn's pursuit of him has cooled Colorado and Indiana still, still after him, but he's still committed to USC.

Deuce Knight next in line. And remember, Auburn signed Walker White this year from Arkansas. So he's a freshman this year there. They've got Peyton Thorne right now as the starting quarterback. But could Deuce Knight be that quarterback in the future? We will find out. Now, Steve had a 50% confidence rate on this Fong Bomb. So it's a 50-50 Fong Bomb.

But I think we'll probably find something out fairly soon on this. Very interesting development in the world of recruiting. One more thing before we talk to Stanford Steve and we go over some of these win totals that are, there's some crazy ones out there this year. I'm just, I'm pointing that out right now. But one more thing, Jim Harbaugh got asked about the notice of allegations,

the draft copy, the notice of allegations that ESPN obtained involving the Connor Stallions stuff. So Jim Harbaugh, obviously now the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers and not necessarily worrying about this stuff. Well, he got asked about it. This was his quote in full. Never lie, never cheat, never steal.

I was raised with that lesson. I've raised my family on that lesson. I have preached that lesson to the teams that I've coached. No one's perfect. If you stumble, you apologize and you make it right. Today, I do not apologize. I did not participate, was not aware nor complicit in those said allegations. So for it's back to work and attacking with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. So say it's Jim Harbaugh. Translation, I'm not coming back to college. Nanny, nanny boo boo. Yeah, he's not worried about this, but that answer is fairly similar to the answer that he gave while he was still coaching at Michigan. Got asked about this stuff.

I think that's going to continue to be his answer because there's really nothing they can do to him at this point. There's no penalty that will follow him into the NFL. Remember, they did the stupid thing with Jim Trestle, where when Jim Trestle was going to be a consultant for a team, the NFL was like, well, we might suspend him. Come on, that's stupid. Antonio Pierce is the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders right now. He's the central figure in the Arizona State NCAA investigation.

They don't care. Nothing's going to happen to Jim Harbaugh. So, of course, he's going to say this. And, yeah, I'm actually surprised he did not include Nanny Nanny Boo Boo in his statement. All right. It is time to talk. Wentz, oh, first? It is time to talk. Winto first. Edina25, is there a Notre Dame website to subscribe to?

Absolutely. Blueandgold.com, our guy Tyler Horka, our guy Mike Singer. Absolutely. One buck first month. Use that code Andy1. All right. Let us talk. When totals and Odin horns asks, what is the mood in Gainesville right now?

What is the fan base mood in Gainesville right now? Okay. We're going to give you a little of that. We're going to give you a little, little of that with Sanford Steve, because that Florida wind total does pop up. We originally were going to do this one as kind of Notre Dame, the ACC, and the Big Ten. But we threw a couple bonus SEC teams in here just because their situations were fairly similar

or they were going to play somebody we were talking about. And it's like, okay, let's talk about this. Florida is one of those teams. But we start with the notre dame fighting irish here is stanford steve from college game day and the scott van pelt sports center aka the best sports center honored to be joined by the great stanford Coughlin, live from the SV Pod Studios in lovely, are we saying Rockville? We're saying Potomac, Andy.

Potomac, Maryland. Sorry, sorry. My Metro DC is not great. I mean, all the recruiting you used to do, I mean, I know you know the high school, so I'm not going to. Oh, yeah. Because we're the Dunbar poets. Everyone's from every other town I know you know the high school so I'm not gonna oh yeah because we're the Dunbar poets everyone's from every other town but you know the school so yeah get me to the Dunbar poets I know where they are all right very good we are we're gonna do we

did this last year and it was a lot of fun and as you know you you see Stanford Steve on the SVP Sports Center but also on college game day and he's handing out his picks. We did win totals last year with you, Steve, and I wanted to do it again because there's so many. And I know I texted you this long list, and we're not going to hit them all, but it's like there are so many that I was just like, oh, we can't miss that one.

Yeah. It's really hard, Andy. I know when Bear and I used to do our podcast, it was amazing how, same thing, we would have so many that we liked. And now with everyone being more invested in the gambling side and people being so intrigued of season win totals. I think NFL is starting to catch up, but college football has always been that preseason talk.

Everybody getting their preseason mags and finding out the information. But I think the guys that make the numbers have gotten so much better that I can almost predict what the number is going to be like. That's, that's why I like, I don't, I try not to dive in until like media days because I just feel like you get so much, you know, spring ball. We thought, and I, I know still guys, you know, concentrate on, on watching the spring games and that stuff. But like, it doesn't do anything for me.

I mean, half the teams aren't even playing spring games. It's good to put what I like doing. Like, I play in the video game now because I want to put names to numbers in those uniforms and see that. So that's what's been so fun for me is learning all these new faces and new places. It's going to continue to be the story before the season starts. And I get it because of how passionate these fan bases are

and where guys go. I was reading today, was it the corner that was at Syracuse, went to LSU and do Chestnut? Yep. He went, he went, started at Cuse, went to LSU, and now he's back at Syracuse. Yeah. That's the world Syracuse. Yeah. That's the world we're in.

Fran Brown, baby. We might be talking about Fran Brown in a minute because he's one that I'm intrigued by because that's a number that everybody's going to be like, whoa, that's high. And then they look at the schedule like, well, maybe not. Maybe not. But, okay, before we start, though,

I got to ask about the video game. Favorite or new favorite player? Like mine from the other day, or it's not even one player. It's the Lenora Sellers-Rocket Sanders combo at South Carolina. I almost said Ace Sanders. Going deep in South Carolina lore. But, yeah, Lenora Sellers-Rocket Sanders, they're fun together, at least in the video game. line almost at ace sanders going going deep in south carolina lore but yeah lenora sellers rocket sanders they're fun together at least in the video game i uh i i haven't dove into

as many times just i want because with the acc being new stomping grounds for the cardinal i've i've ramped through a couple seasons with Stanford. I am really impressed with Clemson's skill, guys. I'll just say that. Running back might have taken it to us a little bit in a game at Syracuse, which finding out Stanford goes to Syracuse and then comes home and then goes to Clemson and then has a trip to NC State later in the year. That's pretty daunting, but we'll leave that to the schedule people. You've got to play who's on your schedule.

That's why we're here. Listen, a lot of those guys are going to be executives anyway. Let them figure out frequent flyer miles early. This is how you use those. This is how you accumulate them. That's what we're really getting into here. I actually think it's going to be great, Andy, because

you've been out there, and that's always been the talk about the Pac-12 is they're really tough places to play because Sun Devil Stadium is kind of sleepy at night, and if they're kind of good or students want to go to the game, they can make that place

awesome, but you still got to go do that. And you're playing on the best turf there is in the country, and you feel as fast as you've ever did, and it's 100 degrees. So now I just feel like for Stanford's case, you know, it's fallen off a little bit. You know, I think Coach Taylor's done a great job of trying to get back in relevance but the I these guys have no idea how many more eyeballs they're going to have on them being in the ACC

and knowing how passionate the fans are mostly on this east coast and I think it's great for SMU I think it's great for Cal they I think there's been some some matter-of-factness at those two schools when it comes to sports especially football And now you're going to see these schools that that's their big dog. And you're going to have to throw some more things into the pile as far as assets and making your head coach be in a successful situation. So I think it's very, very good for those two schools, especially SMU. I'm not worried about at all. They know they have the funding.

But the importance and how awesome college football can be, I think, has fallen off a little bit at Stanford and Cal. And I think joining this conference is going to bring that attention because, you know, you go on the road and you get rolled. It's not going to be the same reaction as a 10-30 Eastern game where, you know, half the country might've not been watching. So there there's a, there's an accountability now that you have being in this conference,

which is great. Yeah. We're going to talk about the ACC and say, let's talk about a team that plays a lot of the ACC first, including Stanford. They've been playing them a lot. Notre Dame. 10 and a half.

Now, as we record this we're a few hours removed from learning that left tackle Charles Jagasog is going to miss the season which is a massive massive loss for Notre Dame they obviously open at Texas A&M we know how good Nick Skorton is we've talked about him transferring from Purdue a bunch on the show but but 10 and a half, I always thought was a, was basically an, are they going to make the playoff question? Like, because this schedule on paper doesn't look all that strong. Like you think 11 and one is what you'd have to, to get with this schedule to make the playoff. And now that's definitely feels like the question here yeah uh you know i just i think they're really really interesting andy because of the dynamic uh you brought up the injury on the offensive line i just looking at it and looking at them and their

personnel they've always had those guys they've they've been deep on the offensive i mean go back to when all started as a true freshman. They've always been able to rely on those offensive lines. That's one thing I think that they prided themselves on. I always still think is the number one thing I want when I have to go play on the road

is a trustworthiness in your offensive line. That crowd's not going to be a factor. You're going to be able to make your calls and all that stuff. And Notre Dame's done a great job of recruiting that position and providing depth. And now the table's kind of turned. Coach Freeman's a defensive guy.

That defense should be lights out. Whatever position you look at, I love the talent. I think Morrison's the best corner in the country. I don't see him on enough All-America teams. That kid's a stud. Watching him in person against Ohio State receivers last year, I was blown away at how good he is. I love the addition of Jordan Clark.

He's the ultimate quarterback in the secondary that faced a lot. I mean, he was on a bad football team. And now I think about those kind of guys that go to an established program now and where he could really show how much of a difference is he doesn't take on as much responsibilities, but he's also making sure everybody's on the same page back there in that secondary. When you go on the road and you got to play a really good team. So I've always thought Notre Dame is going to be a playoff team. I almost put them, you know, it's funny, Scott and I were talking about the Florida-Miami game

and I made a prediction. I believe Florida beats Miami and Miami goes to the playoff. I will not be shocked if Notre Dame loses week one, but still manages to go to the playoff. I think that's a big-time place. I mean, all the connecting dots with Leonard and Coach Elko, and I believe Notre Dame has another Duke transfer, a linebacker. The weirdness of that and knowing how on-point College Station will be for a night game in primetime with a new regime in town. You and I were there.

I was really bummed that that whole year basically got blown out of the Johnny Manziel documentary. But that weekend when Alabama came back to College Station, and that was when the stadium wasn't even done yet, that place was so ready to pop. And it's good as it is. You know, Yelp practice will be, practice will be at nighttime the nights before that, but they are rearing to go.

Being around Elko, I thought it was one of the coolest things last year with College Game Day. He brought his whole staff over to the Game Day conference room after our meeting to meet everyone, and I just thought it was a down-to-earth move where he said, we want to come to you. You're coming to show us some shine. We want to go give you some time.

And meeting all those guys and see where they ended up is awesome for them. So I think it's a tricky game for Notre Dame. Like I said, I wouldn't be surprised, but I do expect Notre Dame's defense to be the difference in that game. So I believe they're a little point favorite. But I would go over expect Notre Dame's defense to be the difference in that game. So I believe they're a little point favorite, but I would go over with Notre Dame. I think they have the goods. Riley knows he has to be better throwing the football.

And, you know, I just talked about Notre Dame, what their makeup has always been is they've always had that offensive line. And in the years past, they haven't had any wide receivers. Now they've got some guys that could do some things. So I think that's going to help out Riley a lot. The running game, I'm not worried about losing Estime. They've always done a great job recruiting that position also. But again, that defense and Freeman being a defensive guy,

I expect big things from Notre Dame this year. So I'm going to go under because for the same reason same I think they dropped the one at Texas A&M but then you to go over you got to run the table after that I think Louisville Georgia Tech Florida State all tricky I think Florida State probably will wind up being favored over them uh even though that one's in South Bend I have no idea i'm sure we're going to talk about them but their last game like what that team's going to look like at the end of the season sc i have no idea that that that's that's the one i it's a complete mystery to me too because i think they can go one of two ways and it's it's either polarity and if it goes well for sc that's going to be a problem for Notre Dame

because that game could be huge for SC or it could be huge for both. Yep. Like the idea of a Notre Dame-USC game to make the playoff is amazing. Like with one of them getting in and one of them's not. Yeah, because they're going to be done with their Big Ten play.

So that's, I mean, you always want that game to mean so much. and i feel like we've been let down i mean we only had i want to say the only time i mean caleb had that great game a couple years ago to win the heisman put his cement but like the manti tail that sc team wasn't good they hung around with them yeah they never seem to meet each other on equal terms correct correct yeah doesn't feel like we've gotten that so hopefully i i can't wait to see it now you mentioned another game that you think you know the result of already which i is one that i'm fascinated by i call it the pitchforks and torches bowl and that's miami

and florida we'll get to florida later but miami's win total is nine and a half yep if you look at the schedule you go well they better go 10 and two. If they don't, I got some questions about the Mario Cristobal administration. Correct. I totally agree. And that's where I know it. And people that, I mean, watching that Stanford game years ago, that's, that's all, that's all they have though, is that Stanford Oregon game where they fumbled and should have ran

it out. And then last year's Georgia Tech game. I think he has done an outstanding job this time at Miami hiring his staff. That staff is great, and I think you saw the progressions. I mean, after that Georgia Tech game, they were left for dead. They come back and beat Clemson with a quarterback that's never played before. That's big boy stuff. And why were they able to

do that? They were able to compete on the line of scrimmage with the likes of Clemson, who always has guys on a defensive line. So I've really not bought in to the Miami is back deal. I know everybody hates the saying. I haven't bought

in in years. I never took the bait. I know everybody hates the saying. I haven't bought in in years. Never took the bait. I'm taking it this year. I do believe that team, how they are built, and knowing what Cam Ward will grow into, I think is a scary proposition. It really showed me a lot that he was voted preseason offensive player of the year, the respect.

I think he'll be the first person to tell you he could still be better taking care of the football, and that's where Miami has to be better. You go back and look at the big games and how careless that position has been with the football. He knows how good he is, but he doesn't have to do as much as he did at Incarnate Word or Washington State. He's got plenty of talent around him, and that's where I think that over the course of time

and what Mario has instilled there, I think, is already he's bought in, and I think it only gets stronger as the season goes on. And that first game, man, you know what it is. I mean, that's 330. That's Gainesville. We know it. Scott predicted automatic weather delay in that game. Yes, there will be a lightning delay at some point.

That game was at night. This is 330. And I'm really, really rooting for Florida this year because I think all anyone says or has a comment on is about their schedule. I get it. He's coming 13th in the SEC the last couple recruiting class, and that's not good enough for them down there.

But when you look at that team, how many freshmen they got experience last year, and the idea of, again, left for dead after that game against Utah, come back and beat a really good Tennessee team. I don't dominate that game. And one Come back and beat a really good Tennessee team. I don't dominate in that game. And one of the best games I've seen by a defensive line was when I was playing with Cam Jackson, who's one of my favorite players in the country.

But that place, I wonder if Miami... Miami has to have their A game. That's what I'm getting to. And I'm not sure they're going to have it in week one because of all the parameters. I still think Florida is going to have really good talent on defense. Mertz, look at the numbers.

The guy was fantastic last year. The game I think that really, really hurt him because they could have hung their hat on that one was the Missouri game. You know, fourth and 17. That's just a – they outplayed Missouri that whole game. And when you go back and look at what Missouri did through the course of the season, that was a lucky, lucky win. It was a good team. And Florida dominated whole game. When you go back and look at what Missouri did through the course of the season, that was a lucky, lucky win.

Florida dominated that game. Now, are they at the level of Georgia? No, I'm not saying they're at the level of Georgia. Scott and I, again, we discussed Florida could be 7-5 and be way, way ahead of where they were last year. If Florida's 7-5, it means they've beaten

somebody who's either in contention to make the playoff or they made the playoff. It's a good season if they're 7-5. I really won't. I think they have the goods. And this whole offseason with the Rashada debacle and still having to deal with that and all the questions off the stuff,

I think Billy's done a really good job of keeping his players in line because they know what's at the end. They know how important the beginning is and i and i think they're going to come out very very sharp in that opening start to the season uh you you have to start four and oh uh with that ucf game uh and i think they have the capability to do that i really do um let's add a bonus let's add a bonus pick here so we we were gonna we were i was just gonna go big 10 acc for now but i i think we should throw the florida one in here too so i'm

with you on miami i think they can go over i think because you can lose to florida and lose to florida state and if you happen to win one of those that gives you a mulligan for like at louisville or the virginia tech game and so i think i think miami, can do 10. I do Florida. I mean, it's four and a half. Yeah. Like, come on. Like, I think, I think if he goes five and seven, he might still get fired. I think it was six and six. It depends on how the six go. I think it's seven, five. Like we said, all they're, they're in good shape, but I think they're going over four and a half. So do I, So do I. I still believe there's enough talent there.

I really do. And when you go back, again, the Georgia game gets blown. They're not on Georgia's level. So, like, just take that game out of there. But A&M comes to your place. We saw what A&M looked like when they went to Miami last year. Florida's a more capable team than Miami last year. And I still do really like Billy Napier as a head football coach.

I get it. Everybody points to the picture with all the assistance from the first team picture. And it's not. What was it? Three straight losing seasons. First time since 44, 45. It's not the norm.

I get it. But Scott brought it up, too, and I thought he made a great point. Florida State, as hard as it is, look at what Florida State did after Norvell's first two seasons. They didn't ramp up and bring in another guy and try and do this all over again. They just stuck to their guns, and they got the job done. And sometimes, as hard as it is, like I'm reading today about Indiana and what they paid to get rid of

tom out like indiana did that like floor i i think it's i think they said sixth highest um payout and ever indiana football like i get and florida florida's would be incredibly high if they if they were to fire billy napier this year you're talking 26 million dollars you're talking 13 million up front like it ain't easy no I'm glad you mentioned Indiana because I I need this is the one I when when we decided to do this one yeah I was like I have to ask Steve about this because I don't I'm I know you've met this guy because you guys were there with game day last year at JMU after talking to Kirk Cignetti at Big Ten Media Day and I had interviewed him before but like meeting him in person and getting a chance to really sit down with him um I look at I hate to say it the first thing I did was go to the win total after we finished

that interview and I'm like oh Indiana five and a half over over over, over. Am I crazy? Have I fallen under his spell? Or is this guy like, was he right? Google me. I just win. Yeah, no, he's I love him because he has a really sound, not loud confidence. I really appreciate that about him. And I'm calling it there to Indiana Dukes this

year because of how many guys he's brought staff and players. Three-fifths of the offensive line. Guys are good enough to play at Indiana. I really do. When you look at what those guys did in the Sunbelt and I mean, say what you, I, I, when we're looking at lower majors, Sunbelt has had fantastic players in that conference. And I think he's brought 13 over. You have a super, super veteran quarterback in Rourke who's played a ton of football. And now he goes into a situation where he has better wide receivers on this team than he's ever played with in his whole career. When you go back to his days at Ohio and the guys that he had there.

They have serious talent at wide receiver. And how do you make yourself different in the Big Ten when you're not part of the Ohio State echelon of teams? You've got to play to your strengths, and that strength is going to be throwing the football. And I believe he always has had a great defense, and they play that sound system. It's, it's really hard. I think to, to identify and stay consistent with, with when

you're getting to the line of scrimmage. So five and a half, I, you gotta, you gotta go to UCLA and win. If you want that, when you look at the beginning of that schedule, but you could be five and Oh, I mean, it does get tougher. There. There's 10 winnable games on this schedule. You don't know what Michigan State's going to be. You don't know what Purdue's going to be, especially at the end of the season. You start off September hot. You're looking really good because you talked about the Mulligans earlier

with some other teams. Every win you get in September, I consider a Mulligan because now you're also getting better if you're winning those games. And you're not sure if those teams in the back end of your schedule are going to be. Nebraska, another one. Washington, I don't have high expectations for them. Love the coaching staff, love the hire,

but they're not going to be close to what they were last year because of all the overturn on that roster. So I do. I think it's gettable for sure. When you look at that schedule, like I said, you have a quarterback. I do believe the Big Ten, I was thinking about the quarterbacks in that league and the difference you're going to see defensively. You got your Pac-12 schools coming in.

You have your speed and talent with your Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State. But what are you going to do to offset with the other middle teams? I think Indiana has the strength and I think we're going to do it throwing the football. Ten winnable games. You only have to go six and four in cash

and go to a bowl game. That's a home run season if they go six and six. Home run. I think it's doable. You mentioned this team earlier. This is a team that absolutely fascinates me because this win total, I think the casual fan will look at this and go,

what the hell? USC 7.5. But there is a definitive path to under. Yep. Because the poop can start rolling downhill real quick if it doesn't work out. But it's also, if the defense is better,

we're probably talking about a fairly easy over. Yeah, I put SC in Oklahoma. Andy is my most fascinating teams this year. Knowing the prowess they've had in a conference prior, both changing conferences, and I don't know what to expect from either. When I look at SC in Oklahoma, I like Oklahoma better because I'd rather have a defense to fall back on

than an offense with a new signal caller. And reading some of the numbers and how many pressures in time sack Caleb Williams was because of a bad offensive line, and he was Superman back there. He was one of the most elusive guys. Not the fastest, not the quickest,

but how good his pocket presence was. And talking to scouts, and when they would watch his film, against Notre Dame, he had like 10 realistic dropbacks because they put so much pressure on him. Now, was some of that based off his pre-snap read, which he got wrong? Maybe a couple, but not all of them. I mean, it was close to 20 pressures in hurries.

And in the quick game. So, with Miller Moss, I'm never going to doubt Lincoln Riley on the offensive side. Never. He does a great job of playing to his strengths. Branch is still, I think, going to have an all-time season with the versatility he has and knowing that Lincoln, how good he is. Lincoln does a great job of what great coaches do, right? Get the ball to your best player.

But I do wonder about that offensive line now going to the big 10, like I talk about the diversity of defense you're going to face in that conference. I think there's a lot of Miller Moss. I love the story. Love how he never, you know, thought about leaving LA kid wanted to be a Trojan. But I wonder, you know, when we start talking about these teams that are making the shift to a different conference, the depth. I don't care where you're going, you're going to face battles and adversity you didn't in the previous conference.

And the Big Ten is known for their play up front. And does SC have that? They're only going to be better on defense. Now, I will say what might help them is you're not going to face as many lethal offenses as you did in the Pac-12 and having to play, you know, a Notre Dame that had an NFL quarterback, say, in years past. So will it even out? No. LSU and Notre Dame are not in conference,

I think. Because I just, I don't know what they are going to, when, when you look at that schedule, it's totality. And, you know, I, I'm not even talking about travel. I, I, that's the most overrated thing. I think the way I know these teams travel, but like, you know, Penn state. All right. Yeah. Great. You get them at your place.

What's your record going to be? What are you going to be at the end of September? You know, I was pretty sure it was you that documented or, you know, other guys or other buddies on how they did try and get out for the last two years of this first game. You don't know what you're going to look like. Like that offense, I think LSU is going to have the best offensive line in the country. What are you going to be out of that game?

You know, are you going to lose 52-35, but, you know, you were down a bunch and made some headway late. Are you going to be able to compete? But are you going to be able to get back up in week two, knowing the totality of that game if you were to spring the upset? I don't know. I wonder about that depth. Going through the recruiting, he's done a great job of getting skill, guys.

And that's the funny thing is with this changeover, how many more teams are going to look to freshmen to be difference makers? That kind of worries me going into the big conference and knowing the stability that the big 10 has. Well, I'm with you on that. Like if they lose to LSU and lose to Michigan, they have to beat Wisconsin. Otherwise things get real dark, real fast.

And that's, that's because atnesota is not going to be easy like people don't don't realize the max brosmer darius taylor combo is going to be a lot of fun like and then you play penn state yeah it's i would i would put lsu michigan penn state up there with top five most physical teams? Yes, and then you have Notre Dame at the back half of the schedule. And by the way, Rutgers, which you're playing at 8 p.m. Pacific time after a World Series

game, and Nebraska are going to hit you in the mouth as well. That's the part. It's just a cumulative effect of this. We'll do another bonus here because you brought up oklahoma yeah and i you're right usc and oklahoma fall in the same bucket in terms of the over under part of it but not necessarily in terms of what to expect so usc

i'm with you i lean under there oklahoma this came out at six and a half on most of the books yeah very quickly bet up to seven and a half, but it settled there. This is a tough schedule. This is a brutal schedule. But I look at it and go, you know what? Oklahoma, historically, can go eight and four. Like, Oklahoma fans would be so disappointed in eight and four, but that cashes your ticket.

Yep. I look at, again, their schedule in two halves, knowing the importance of starting fast. God bless Temple. I think you're in for one week one. Lay the points, whatever that is. But you get that Tennessee game. They are going to build that up,

and I would think they would beat Tennessee. But after that, I still think it's underrated because not enough people have been there. It's one of my favorite home stadiums in the country is Jordan-Hare. And that's a team that is sneaky because I think that ceiling for that team is higher than most of the people that I've been reading. So what are you going to be out of that Tennessee game,

knowing what talent Tennessee has on the defensive line, where they can maybe hang around with their defense and slow you down a little bit? What are you going to be out of that game when you've got to go there in Texas, you know, in Dallas, obviously? That makes me wonder, but I do think what he has sustained and the stability that he has created there, I do think that's a top, top-notch defense. I love Woody coming back.

Obviously, Stutzman is what you want when you think of those old Venable Clemson defenses always having that great middle linebacker uh so i i you know i also put in the the similarity of these two teams because i always call it fake momentum your head coach comes back your quarterback's back and you win your bowl game but that's like really the first time we saw those two guys and i can't put stock in the bowl games that was that I once did. So I love what I saw from the guys. Everybody I talked to had Arnold as the number one quarterback in that class. And then you look at what Moss did in his game against the game.

Like no one thought SC was going to compete with Louisville and they blew them out. So the expectation, I think in Oklahoma, I talked to their fans a lot. They get a little crazy with their expectations. But I get it. They dominated the Big 12 for as long as it was around. I totally get it.

And you should have expectations when you're in that. But now I think with the way it's tempered a little bit and knowing that these quarterbacks are better set up for success at younger ages than they were, say, when you and I were playing, Oklahoma, when I compare them to SC, I like them better. I still would take a shot with the over here. I think they could rely on that defense going on these roads and these places that we just talked about.

And they're going to have a serious, serious edge on their shoulders that we know Venable brings to the table and those fan base and the former players we all know. So it's a super fun team for me this year to watch. Knowing how it stacks up with that Tennessee game, I mean, that place is going to be nuts. Oh, it's going to be awesome. I think they, I'd love to get your take.

Their pre-kickoff routine montage is up there. I put it, I think, number one. Think about the two weeks in a row you're going to get of Tennessee coming to Oklahoma. You see the Sooner Schooner.

All of that. And, of course, Josh Heupel coming back to norman like so much there then the following week they go their first sec road game auburn and i'm with you on jordan hair like i am convinced there are days at jordan hair where the 85 bears could not win and you've got the flight of the eagle you've I mean, it is going to be like a jet engine going off in Jordan hair. So, and, and the other thing about that Auburn game, and I keep bringing this up and the Oklahoma fans hate when I say it, because they, they seem to think the Auburn game's a gimme. And I telling you, it's not a gimme, but Auburn after that game plays at Georgia, at Missouri, at Kentucky, like they need to win that game. Yeah. They really need to win that game plays at Georgia, at Missouri, at Kentucky. They need to win that game.

They really need to win that game. Yeah, I'm with you. I'd go over with Oklahoma. Yeah, I would too. I trust them. It ain't going to be easy, though. No. Because I almost think the ceiling is eight and four.

I think they can be better than that if they're really good. But I think they can be a playoff team if the offensive line comes together. But my thing is if you can beat some of these teams, you can beat a lot of these teams. Yeah. Like Texas and Ole Miss. If you can beat Texas, you can beat Ole Miss. You can hang with Alabama.

But it's just again the cumulative effect of all of it is is very tough that is part one with stanford c part two coming tomorrow. We got more win totals. Snuff Torch said Jordan Harris overrated in the chat. No, quite accurately rated. You've clearly never been there. And I know what happened with New Mexico State. You can bring up the New Mexico State game all you want.

I've been to games there against opponents they care about. And it's electric and it will be electric when Oklahoma shows up. I don't know who will win that game. That's why I think it's one of the more pivotal games of the year. I think it's fascinating the dynamics in that game. And we really won't know exactly what it means until we find out what happens with Oklahoma, Tennessee the week before. But it's going to be fun. It's going to be a lot of fun. And stuff towards Penn State. Wasn't that a Brian Harsin Auburn team? That doesn't really count.

Yosef, yes, Penn State went in there and crushed them. Again, Brian Harsin Auburn team, right? Like that doesn't even apply. That doesn't mean anything. So we'll see what happens with all this. But I want to get back to the coaches poll a little bit. Because in the interest of retraining our brains to what this is going to be like this year. We got to talk about what this means. Like we know preseason polls are not going to be accurate. We know they're just guessing. We know there's going to be teams that are up high in the preseason polls that will

finish out of the poll. We know there are teams that are not even in the preseason polls that will finish up high in the, in the poll at the end of the season. But let's just pretend for a second that the coaches predicted the future entirely accurately and that this is what the final CFP ranking looks like. Boy, howdy. Would this be an interesting playoff? And this would be, you know the the cut line moves here because remember the coach's highest ranked ACC team is Florida State so their number 10 team would be the number three seed in the playoffs remember they've got Georgia number one so Georgia would be the number one seed in the playoff. Ohio State number two. They'd be the Big Ten champ.

They'd be the two seed. But their number three is Oregon. Their number four is Texas. Five, Alabama. Six, Ole Miss. Okay, so we're still in the SEC and the Big Ten. Seven, Notre Dame. Eight, Michigan.

Notre Dame's not in a conference. They can't do it. Nine, Penn State. Big Ten. Nope. Okay, so 10, Florida State, ACC. There's your ACC champ. There is your three seed because the top four seeds have to be conference champions. So there's your three seed and a bye. Now your four seed not ranked in the top 12. Their highest ranked Big 12 team is Utah. Now I disagree with this. I think there's going to be a

big 12 team in the top 10 by the end of the season. But if this happens, we're either the ACC or the big 12 champ is outside the top 12. It just means somebody else in the top 12 is getting left out of the playoff. So in this case, Utah is the four seed, despite being number 13. Number 11 Missouri and number 12 LSU are left out of the playoff. You have to go into their others receiving votes section to find their highest ranked group of 5 team. That's Memphis. So Memphis would be your 12 seed. So we've talked a lot about how good the five spot is in this case. The Oregon Ducks, the beneficiary of this, they would host Memphis at Autzen Stadium.

The winner of that game would play Utah in the Fiesta Bowl. That's a pretty good path. That is not a bad path. But let's look at the other games. Let's look at the other games. Penn State at Texas with the winner playing Florida State in the Peach Bowl. Michigan and Alabama with the winner playing Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Notre Dame at Ole Miss with the winner

playing Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. I'm with Ozzie in the chat on this. Penn State visiting Austin, Michigan going to Bryant-Denny. How can anyone be against this? If we just got those two games alone, that would be enough. That would be so tremendous. Just a bad Michigan and Alabama with Ohio State waiting on the other side in the Rose Bowl. Why the Rose Bowl, you're asking? Okay, here's why. And this is the same reason why Georgia would play the winner of Notre Dame Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl. For the next two seasons, not necessarily beyond that, we don't know beyond that, but for the next two seasons, the old bowl affiliations with the conferences still apply

because we're still actually working off the first CFP contract. They've expanded the playoff, but they didn't really change the other terms of the contract. So the SEC champ goes to the Sugar Bowl. The Big Ten champ goes to the Rose Bowl. The ACC champ would go to the Orange Bowl if it weren't a semi, but it's a semi this year. So the ACC champ would just go to the bowl that could take it or the one that works geographically with everybody. And then the Big 12 champ at this point would go to the Fiesta Bowl because that's the, that would be the one left in this case.

So that's how that works. Again, in the 2026 season, it may be completely different. The truth, Michigan versus Alabama with last year's Rose Bowl in with the way the last year's Rose Bowl and his storylines upon storylines. Darn right. Darn right. With Seth McLaughlin, the center from Alabama, waiting with Ohio State on the other side of this game for whoever wins. And then the question in this case, now, if this is accurate, Ohio State would have beaten Michigan in the regular season meeting. So Ryan Day would have that monkey off his back. But let me throw this at you.

Let me throw this at you. What if you had a scenario where Ohio State beats Michigan in the regular season, wins the Big Ten, is the number two or the number one seed in the playoff. And in this particular case, let's say Michigan goes to Tuscaloosa and beats Alabama, then goes to Pasadena and beats Ohio State to move on to the semifinals. Can you imagine the meltdown? That would be so much worse

than Ohio State just losing to Michigan in the regular season this year. So much worse. Goat dog, I love college football hypotheticals. That's all we got right now, goat dog. We're in pure hypothetical season. Pure hypotheticals. That's all we got right now, Goat Dog. We're in pure hypothetical season. Pure hypothetical season. But we're very close. We are very close. We got the coach's poll today. We will get the AP poll here, I believe, in a little over a week. Florida State and Georgia

Tech currently practicing, waiting to go to Dublin to give us that little taste, that little hit right before it all begins. We have NFL preseason games that are going to just invade our televisions on Thursday. We're almost there, everybody. We are so close. We can taste it. And I got to tell you, if the coaches got this right, and that's what it looks like in the playoff, I'm probably going to take that as a viewer.

I'm probably good with that. But of course, it's going to be wrong. Just don't know how it's going to be wrong. We'll find out. But tomorrow, more with Stanford Steve from College Game Day, more win totals going deeper into the SEC and into the Big 12. We'll talk to you tomorrow.