Angry Planet - The Most Important Middle Eastern Country You’ve Never Heard Of

Episode Date: February 6, 2018

Yemen. Saudi Arabia. Iran. Syria. These are the countries that cross most of our minds when we think of the Middle East, but there’s an important actor in the region that we almost never hear about--Oman.Next door to Yemen and Saudi Arabia and across the gulf from Iran, Oman sits in the middle of instability and war. Yet it’s politically and economically stable, friendly to the West, and fends off Islamic extremism with ease. What’s its secret?This week on War College, Tom Orderman joins us to explain the “Switzerland of the Middle East” and what’s at stake if it falls.You can listen to War College on iTunes, Stitcher, Google Play or follow our RSS directly. You can reach us on our new Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/warcollegepodcast/; and on Twitter: @War_College.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/warcollege. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Love this podcast? Support this show through the ACAST supporter feature. It's up to you how much you give, and there's no regular commitment. Just click the link in the show description to support now. That sort of capacity to achieve strategic ends short of shooting at each other. If Oman disappears tomorrow, that capacity to do that is gone as well. You're listening to War College, a weekly podcast that brings you the stories from behind the front lines. Here are your hosts, Matthew Galt and Jason Fields.

Hello, welcome to War College. I'm Matthew Galt. And I'm Jason Fields. The Sultanate of Amman isn't a country we often hear about in the news, which is strange, given its location. The country sits next to Yemen and Saudi Arabia and across the Gulf from Iran and Pakistan. Given its relationship and location, Amman is the most important country most people have been. never heard of. Here to help us understand it better, security specialist Tom Ordeman. Ordeman spent a year and a half as an anti-terrorist advisor in the Gulf region during the Arab Spring. His work has appeared in the Small Wars Journal, and he's also been a guest on the International Spy Museums podcast and BBC Radio. So, Tom, what's the first thing people need to understand

about Amman, especially those of us who don't know anything about the country? So the first thing to understand is that there are a number of key things about Oman that just make it different than its neighbors. Some of the listeners will know that the Middle East, and particularly the Gulf region, was more or less colonized by the United Kingdom for many years. And that colonization period kind of ended in a phased withdrawal from what the British called East of Suez. after about 1970. Oman was never a colony in the sense that the other nations were, but there's always been a very intimate relationship between Oman and the United Kingdom, going back at least to the 1700s. Oman sits outside the Gulf itself, with the exception of the Musandum Peninsula, which is an exclave of Oman,

attached to Emirati territory so it has a geographic relationship that ties a great deal to India and to Africa so there are some cultural and historical links there that are absent elsewhere in the Arabian Peninsula the the people of Oman adhere most of them to a minority denomination of Islam called Ibhahism, which actually split off from the main Sunni branch a number of years before the Shiite branch split off. So there are some religious differences that end up being key to differences in the culture and in Omani history. So between geography and culture and history, there's just a number of factors that have kind of pushed Oman into a unique position to really have impact on a number of different global conflicts.

You make it sound like, well, let me understand something, actually. It's a peaceful place, at least compared to a lot of the other countries in the region, but it actually has strategic importance, right? I mean, what is it that it actually has to offer other than peace and quiet? You know, obviously there's geographic elements that make it a strategic powerhouse. For example, because it sits outside the Gulf and because it has its own energy resources, although those are more modest than some of its neighbors, there are certainly some strategic economic factors at play there. As I mentioned, it's outside the Gulf. So you've got the proximity to different conflicts and friction zones within the Middle East without how.

having to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That having been said, Oman controls one side of the Strait of Hormuz. So you actually, you know, a lot of people would look at that, you know, from a wide angle on a map and think, oh, it's the United Arab Emirates that's directly across from Iran. In fact, it's Iran and Oman that control that straight. And some of the listeners may remember from back in 2011 or 2012, there was some posturing by Iran. claiming that they could mine the Strait of Hormuz or, you know, kind of close that artery of global energy supplies off whenever they wanted. Well, they really couldn't.

And part of the reason for that is that they would have drawn the ire of Oman in so doing. Part of the relationship between the different Gulf states is that Oman essentially becomes the Switzerland of the Middle East. So even though they're a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council along with Kuwait, Bahrain, the Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, they also conduct military drills with Iran and have close relations with Iran. Yeah, let me let me cut let me jump in here real quick. First of all, I want to know more about its, its energy resources and its military. Does it have oil? And what's its military like? So Oman does have oil. It's energy resources. are much, are considered maybe not much more modest, but noticeably more modest than those of its neighbors. So, you know, I spent a year and a half in Kuwait and not to offend any Kuwaiti listeners, but I was very surprised that Kuwait has so much energy wealth, but you wouldn't

know it from looking at the infrastructure. It looks like a third world country. You go to Muscat, You go to Solala, and you may as well be driving down a road in Southern California. Because they have such modest energy resources, they have to be very careful with how that wealth is invested. And so they take very good care of what they build, but that also impacts how they make decisions with that money. Tying back into your second question about the military, they do have a military, as with other Gulf states, a lot of that military force is focused on what the, what the Brits would call fast jets, what we would, you know, called jet fighters and that kind of thing, very much looking at an air defense interdiction, interceptor type capability. The Omani land forces, as far as I'm aware,

have not been employed since a border dispute with Yemen back in 1987. They were on call during Gulf War, but I don't believe that they actually participated in that conflict. Where Oman got involved was they invited Kuwaiti citizens who were displaced by the conflict to come stay in Oman. And they offered them, you know, lodging and basically took care of them for the duration of the conflict. So you see from a lot of Omani history that that hospitality and the willingness to engage diplomatically is kind of their schtick. If Oman ceases to exist, what happens to the Middle East? Immediately what happens is not only the Gulf nations, but also the West, lose a key intermediary.

The Sultan, and particularly His Majesty, Sultan Kaboos, has been involved in a number of diplomatic efforts over the years, particularly between Iran and everybody else who is in Iran. Listeners may remember from June 2004 and April 2007 when Iran detained British sailors and Marines, it was Oman that negotiated their release. They've cooperated with Iran on defense, but they've also cooperated and held drills with the United States. British officers are still seconded to the Omani military as advisors after many decades. there have been a number of hostages that have been released by Oman, not released by Oman. Oman has negotiated their release. The most recent one that I'm aware of was an Indian Catholic priest who was held in Yemen by ISIS,

and he was released in September of 2017 because of intercession by Oman. The Iran nuclear deal, whether you care for it or not, the broker, behind the scenes was Oman, and the number of those negotiations took place in Oman precisely because Oman has set itself up as a neutral third party that's friends with the West, friends with the other Gulf Arab monarchies, but also maintains this relationship with Iran. So that sort of capacity to achieve strategic ends short of shooting at each other. If Oman disappears tomorrow, that capacity to do that is gone as well. During the Arab Spring, am I remembering right that Oman also ran into some trouble with minorities there?

Not so much with minorities. You're remembering more or less correctly. So what happened with in Oman was you did have demonstrations. There was a supermarket that was burned down. and I believe there may have been also some protests in Muscat, the Capitol. I know for a fact that there were at least protests planned in Salala. And what was interesting about it was in virtually all cases, as opposed to, you know, protests that we've seen in Iran that have said, down with the dictator or, you know, in other locales that, you know, like in Tunisia where, you know, the long-time president was ousted or the same in Egypt and Yemen, the protests were actually

posed as supplication to Sultan Kaboos. So it was asking for his intercession to alleviate different grievances that different groups within the Sultanate held. That kind of points to a very interesting situation with the Sultanate. Sultan Kaboos remains exceptionally popular with his subjects. There's real anxiety about the prospect of an Oman after Sultan Kaboos. Can you tell me what the source of that is? What kind of reforms is he done or things that he's given to the people? Before Sultan Kaboos, his father, Sultan Saeed, had, he had some fairly antiquated ideas.

It was very austere in many of his beliefs. to the degree that people were not allowed to travel within the Sultan, that people were not allowed to wear glasses. There were only a couple of miles of actual paved roads in the entire country. There's a famous story that prior to Sultan Kaboos coming to power, Sultan Saeed's rule for Muscat was that a man was not allowed to be outside the city gates without a lantern or something to that effect. So before Sultan Kaboos took power from his father in 1970, we're talking about a country that was essentially like some of the villages we see in coverage of in Afghanistan, where there's no electricity, there's no education, there's no medicine, it's really, you know, it was living in the dark ages. And so Sultan Kaboos took power in a bloodless coup that is generally believed to have been assisted or at least, condoned by the British government. That was in July of 1970, and his father went into exile in the United Kingdom for the remainder of his life.

And Sultan Kaboos immediately embarked on what's now known as the Omani Renaissance. The first step of that was that Oman had previously existed as essentially a very loose confederation of Muscat, which was essentially the coastal areas of Oman. Oman Proper, which was the mountainous inner region outside Muscat, you had Buramei, which was kind of a contested area up north on the border of what's now the United Arab Emirates. And then down south near Yemen, you had an area called Dofar. And so one of his first acts was to unify the country and say, this is no longer the sultanate of Moufarmat. Muscat and Oman. We are now the Sultanate of Oman. We are a unified country. And then he enacted, you know, sent not only boys, but also girls to school. So Oman has an exceptionally well-educated

populace, including women who hold jobs commensurate with those of men. He pushed electricity and just, you know, started with the basics and built a country that was basically in the Stone Age into what now a modern country. So all of that, is that why there's no Islamic State or is there an Islamic State outbranch there? All of the terrorist groups that we've all come to know and not love, nothing in Oman at all? No. So I've never heard any mention of Oman connected with ISIS, Daesh, the Islam, and the Islam.

Islamic State, what have you. There have been a very small handful of Omanis from the minority Sunni community who have ended up being captured or killed in Afghanistan. But this goes back to ISIS and Al-Qaeda and most of the major insurgent, militant terrorist groups in the Middle East, subscribing to either Sunni or, you know, in the case of some of the groups sponsored by Iran, Shiite ideology. You know, very, you know, sort of splinter extremist on which other side of that. Oman is Ibadi. So they're not tied to either of those sort of opposition extremist factions. So there's a very small demographic from which any of those.

groups would even try to recruit from Oman. So very little of that. What you did see, and this is essentially long since past, is in the 1960s, there was the Jebel-Aqdar war in 19, between like 1956 and 1959, and that was between Sultan Saeed, the current Sultan's father, and the Abadi religious authorities that were used. in the Omani Mountains outside Muscat. But you did have a lengthy insurgency that was sponsored initially just by tribal leaders who were disillusioned with Sultan Said's rule and later were co-opted by communist insurgents in neighboring South Yemen.

So that's about the closest thing they've had to an actual insurgency. All right, War College listeners, we're going to take a break right there. We're on with Tom Ordeman Jr. and we're learning about Oman. We're back after this message from our sponsors. All right. Thank you, War College listeners. Welcome back to the podcast. We are talking to Tom Ordeman, and we're learning all about Amman. So let me ask, caboose is ailing, right? So what comes next? Does he have a son or daughter who is going to step into the breach and continue things as they are, or is there now a danger after his death? Well, that is the million real question, isn't it? Sultan Kaboos was married very briefly to one of his cousins,

and that marriage did not produce an heir. The rumor is that he has a safe or a desk drawer or something that has an envelope in it with instructions and or his choice for a successor, and that upon his death, that envelope is to be opened, and then essentially his family has, the clock starts ticking for them to make a decision of how to proceed. There are some potential successors, from what I understand, his cousin, Assad bin Tarik, who was appointed a couple of years ago as the deputy prime minister for international relations and cooperative affairs and who has also served as Sultan Kaboos's personal representative. Many believe that he's favored to win. He also has a son named Timor bin Assad. He's quite a bit younger, obviously,

because he's a son of the Sultan's cousin. That would set up a sort of succession that, would be sort of similar to what we're seeing in places like Qatar and Saudi Arabia, where you have an older successor who is then poised to pass on power to a younger son. There are a couple of other brothers of Assad bin Tarikh. Hytham bin Tarik is the Heritage and Culture Minister. Shihab bin Tarik is the former commander of the Royal Navy of Oman. And then there's an outside chance that a cousin from another branch, Fahad bin Mahmoud, who's been the deputy prime minister for the council of ministers, that he could be a potential option.

My understanding is that he has a European wife and so has a son of mixed ancestry. So there's some speculation that that would dissuade the sultan from choosing him as successor, but those are kind of the key candidates at this point. That strikes me as no way to run a country. Isn't that a really great way to set the next generation up for some sort of succession war? The smart people who have been following this longer than I have don't believe that's the case.

They believe that the system with the mysterious envelope actually puts the Sultan's remaining family members in a position where they have to come to a consensus themselves, similar, but not exactly like what's happened in former successions in the Saudi royal family, where there was somebody in line, but essentially the Saudi royal family, that inner circle of the family, had to agree on who was going to be the next crown prince or who was going to be the the successor. I think it's the theory is that this system gives the opportunity for sincere buy-in. And by only having a handful of eligible folks, I suspect that it'll probably be a smooth transition. So what you're telling me is that there's a very peaceful, economically stable,

politically stable, actor in the Middle East that's rational, his friends with the West, and is trying to get everything smoothed out? That may be putting it a little bit with too much of a bow on it. I mean, if you look at the economic piece, they do have a desire to diversify their economy, just like any of the other, you know, petro states in the Gulf, there's anxiety over where the future of the oil market is going to go. So they're, you know, for example,

they've made efforts to shore up their port facilities, of these. There's a brand new port. I believe it's in a city called Dukham that's kind of out in the middle of nowhere on the coast of the Indian Ocean. Their main port is in kind of the second city of Oman, which is Salala. And so they're trying to increase traffic to those ports. They're trying to increase tourism, doing so in a responsible way. There's also the question of what are all these Omani is going to do. The total population of Oman, if I remember correctly, is about three million, but there are a lot of expatriate laborers in that demographic. And so there's been a push over the last several years for omanization or omanification of the workforce

that has met with mixed results, similar to many of the other Arab guys. And so, similar to many of the other Arab Gulf monarchies, it's very attractive to have a sinecure position at the oil ministry or some other ministry or some state-sponsored company where, you know, the ramifications of what you do aren't critical. But there is progress along those lines. So it's not all rainbows and butterflies, as Maroon 5 might say. But overall, yeah, Oman is this amazing country that has been able, largely through the wisdom of Sultan Kaboos, to avoid a lot of the problems that we see elsewhere in the Middle East. It really is an amazing country that nobody's ever heard of. You're really hurting our brand of terrifying the audience.

Well, how about this? Where is Oman next door? or two. There is no shortage of anxiety. In fact, I saw an article this morning in Al Monitor about Omani anxiety over what's going on in Yemen. There's been a civil

war in Yemen now really going on for a very long time, but specifically since around 2011 and there were skirmishes before that. The Omanis have relations particularly, they have

a great deal of influence in the easternmost province of Yemen, which I believe is called Almara province. Obviously, they share a border there. And so their, Elmara province has not been impacted in the way that many other areas of Yemen have, such as Aden and Sena and what have you. But the Omanis are anxious about that. In particular, you know, they have to be looking at what's gone on in the last few days where you've got an Emirati-backed faction that is

allegedly angling for secession from the rest of the country. That war that Oman fought, the civil war that took place in the southwest province of Dofar in the 1960s and 70s, that was sponsored by

communist insurgents in South Yemen. So there's definitely a memory in the case of Oman of what happened in the 1960s and 1970s, and I think they would very much like to avoid having to worry about that in the future. So Yemen has given them some anxiety, and that's part of why they've remained diplomatically engaged. I know that at some point before his recent death, Ali Abdullah Saleh, the former president of Yemen, had briefly been in exile in Oman. there was another Yemeni opposition figure Ali Salem al-Baid who I don't know if he's still in Oman, but he had taken up refuge in Oman at least for a while as part of a deal negotiated by the Sultanate.

So between them and the Indian priest that I mentioned earlier, there's certainly continued interest in and diplomatic intervention in Yemen, but that's got to keep the Umani's up at night. Well, thank you so much, Tom. Really appreciate you taking us through this. No problem. All right, War College listeners, that does it for this week's episode. Thank you so much for listening. War College is me, Matthew Gull, and Jason, Jason Fields. If you like the show, please like and subscribe on iTunes. It is really helpful for us that it helps other people find the show. You can follow us on Twitter at war underscore college and on Facebook at facebook.com forward slash war college podcast.

We'll see you next week.