Animal Spirits Podcast - $1 Million is the Worst Amount of Money (EP. 459)

Episode Date: April 8, 2026

On episode 459 of Animal Spirits, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠���⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ben Carlson⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ discuss: he psychology of stock market losses, the Mag 7 impact on returns this year, value is beating growth, the upper middle class is growing, why rich people don't feel rich, the impact of higher gas prices, houses in America are getting older, Airbnb's economic impact and more. This episode is sponsored by WisdomTree and ClearBridge Investments. To learn more, visit https://www.wisdomtree.com/geopolitical-opportunities Companies with physical assets, predictable cash flows and durable moats are well-positioned in a volatile, high‑valuation market. Learn more at https://www.clearbridge.com/ Sign up for The Compound newsletter and never miss out: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠thecompoundnews.com/subscribe⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Find complete show notes on our blogs: Ben Carlson’s ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠A Wealth of Common Sense⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Michael Batnick’s ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Irrelevant Investor⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Feel free to shoot us an email at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[e-mail]⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.   Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

One of the big structural trends in global markets over the last several years has been rising defense spending. That raises an interesting question for investors. How do you position your portfolio to align with that shift? Wisemtree has built a suite of ETFs designed to offer exposure to companies connected to defense, security, and the geopolitical forces shaping the modern economy. If you're thinking about how geopolitical dynamics could influence markets over the long run, it's worth taking a closer look. visit wisdomtree.com slash geopolitical dash opportunities to learn more. This episode is sponsored by Clearbridge Investments. Stocks whose businesses are run on real assets

were making a comeback before conflict broke out in Middle East and can provide a predictable source of cash flows as volatility increases. Position your investment portfolio for a wider equity participation with fundamentally driven Clearbridge active equity strategies. Clearbridge, a Franklin Templeton company,

go to Clearbridge.com to learn more. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ridholt's wealth management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ridholt's wealth management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Michael, one year ago today, pretty much.

I was on spring break. The stock market was crashing. The S&P was down 19% from the highs. The cues were down 22% at that point. Then I went on a dolphin cruise. The stock market rose 9.5% in a day. What's a dolphin cruise? A cruise where you go look at dolphins.

Okay. Go on a boat and you ride around and you see dolphins. Surprisingly. Let me give you a little factoid here. Dolphins don't like just roam around the ocean, willy-nilly. They stay within like a mile of where their house is or whatever, whatever you call it.

They don't really leave the area that they're part of. What's the interest rate for dolphins today, the mortgage rate? That's a good question. Is that a true story? Dolphins stay to their lane? That's what I learned on my dolphin cruise, that they don't really leave their little area where they live. So that's why when you're going at dolphin crews,

the guys know they're going to be there. Well, then how would you explain doffins in point lookout Long Island? Because this is definitely not where their roots are from. But they are. You just don't know it. You don't look enough. That's probably a weather pattern thing.

All right. From the lows a year ago today, the S&P is up 32%. The cues are up 40%. Not bad. How much of that situation is coloring what's happening in the equity markets today?

Or is that too easy of a narrative? What do you mean? I think just the fact that the geopolitics last year sent markets crashing this year or not. Is it just, is it as simple as the market says, we just don't care as much about geopolitics? Is there any psychology from last year that's coloring this year? Is that too cute? Well, I was reading a report from duality research, and he made a good point that you're talking about, where it's like people are waiting for the flush.

And I think there's a subset of market commentators that say it's not over until you see capitulation. Now that happens with every pullback. The same people are always waiting for capitulation, but particularly with the fresh memories of geopolitical uncertainty last year, ending with a flush and a capitulation. And the lack thereof this year, I do think there is something to that. Yes. Okay.

I think it makes a lot of sense. It makes sense that that's a psychology mind. Does it make sense that the market's not down there? I don't know. I guess we'll see how long this lasts for. Ben, I want to give us a plug and you a plug. So in my inbox, seven minutes ago, we're recording Tuesday morning, 907 on the East Coast. I got an email from Exhibit A.

And you've heard us talk about Exhibit A here before. It is a software company for financial advisor as a communication tool and we just put out a new feature where Ben is ghostwriting a monthly report for advisors that are subscribed to the service. The website is Exhibit A4advice.com if you want to learn more. And I just downloaded it and I got to tell you, man, this looks like a million bucks. And obviously I'm biased, but it doesn't mean it's not true. So one of the charts that's in here is a chart that, did Josh and I use this?

I can't remember. It's, we're showing the S&P 500 at the start of the year, 6846. and the S&P 500 as of today, and as of today was March 31st, 6529. And all of this is branded in your colors, okay? So in between those two bars, we have what is driving the downward move in the index. Yeah, it's the attribution, right?

Yes, that's right. It's basically all the MagS7. Microsoft took 94 points off. Google took 37 points off. Apple 29 points off. 75% of the decline through the end of March was the Mag 7. Just a wild development.

Other than that, the market's really got nowhere. Yeah, so the other 493 have essentially held up their side of the bargain. But it's crazy that a company like Microsoft could knock 100 points off the S&P. That's kind of nuts. But the thing is, everyone who was worried about concentration, they were looking at it in a vacuum. If the Mag 7 fall, this market is toast. And obviously the market is in a little minor correction.

but they didn't think of the fact that there could be a counterbalance the other way of these other industries and stocks. You're 100% right. In 2025, if you pulled the average investor and said, do you think it's likely or possible or how would you want to word it that the Mag 7 can fall 15% whatever they're down and the SMP 493 be positive to up? Would it be less than 10% say, yeah, that seems plausible? I probably wouldn't have. sort of do not have been the base case. Yeah, no, it's surprising. And also, yeah, because everybody's like, oh, concentration. When they go, what's left? Yes.

And what's left actually has worked. One more plug for the exhibit A thing. Chart kid Matt picks all the charts for me. I just do the writing and they format it. And the, the, what they form in the report looks really, really nice too. They did a great job. Yeah, looks great. So I believe that the current narrative, which is the war is dominating all the head by

market it and otherwise, right? Had the war not happened, now who's to say what the market might be doing? But whatever, okay. My point is, we'd still be talking to my AI. Let's be honest. Well, yes.

But one thing that has not been discussed almost anywhere is the fact that the Russell 3,000 value index outperformed the Russell 3,000 growth index by 11.7% in the first quarter. That's the biggest spread since 2001. Wow. 25 years.

And I don't really see many people talking about this at all. Yeah, the Wall Street Journal had a piece in this. They showed the Russell 1,000 value. The same thing. It's 11 or 12% crushing the Russell growth. So Russell 1,000 value is up 2.5%. Russell 1,000 growth is down 9%. Pretty crazy.

So the S&P down 4%ish. Again, not that bad all things considered. So value stocks are actually, again, the counterbalance. So Matt made a chart for me that I'm going to use for what are your thoughts tonight? The top, because so I said if the Mag 7, if these stocks took $2 trillion out of the S&P and the market's not down that much, what's driving the other side of the bus? Like what's holding the market up? and by far the biggest contributor to the SP 500 is Exxon, driving 30 basis points. And that it's Walmart.

And number three, this is wild because this is not a particularly huge stock. Although I guess the market cap is probably $200 billion at this point. I'm guessing maybe more. The company that I'm talking about is Micron. So Micron, which is up, I don't need to guess. Let me just pull white charts right here real quick. Okay, holy shit, $426 billion. So just off by a double.

So Mike, my, my, my cron was a double than the last year. Well, dude, Micron was a $200 billion stock way back in October. So less than a year. So Micron is up, is that right? Okay, so it's off the highs. Micron is up 30% year to date. But it was up 60% as of this writing. J.P. Morgan had this chart in the guide to the markets that said the top 50,

performing S&B companies by sector and energy has 17 of them, but tech still is 14. So as bad as the Meg 7 is doing, there are still other tech companies that are doing okay this year, which is kind of surprising. I guess there's just so many of them. It has to, they have to be included in there somewhere. I know this is short term thinking, but whatever. Does there need to be another like, oh, boy, here we go again for the market to take out the recent lows?

Or can we just drift lower because whatever? It feels like a death by a thousand cuts type of scenario. What else could, I mean, oil is already shut up. Does it just oil need to just keep rising a little bit by little every day? What's going to cause oil to spike 20% in a day again? We already had that. Right. Like the market's ability to be shocked by more of the same news, I think is not going to happen.

There needs to be something different. Now, maybe further escalation would do it, probably. Because I think the market at this point is pretty optimistic that the war will be over soon and later. I feel like we keep saying that, too. But I guess it's just the longer this goes. And maybe it is earnings seasons that's happening. Is it already too late for companies to even have an earnings impact for this? Probably, right?

It's not like higher gas prices are going to impact earnings already in a meaningful way. Well, but that doesn't matter because it's so, you know, it's about outlook. Forward looking, yeah. Yeah, nobody cares about what they're. report in terms of impact by the war. Okay. I think the sentiment is just, why won't you go down, damn it? The stock market. That's it still. Yeah. I mean, I hear what you're saying. I feel we keep talking past each other. Nobody's like wanting that. I think people are just wondering that. Yes, but I think it's just surprised by it. Yes, yes. I don't think anybody's rooting for that.

Well, certainly some more. Maybe it's because maybe it's one of those situations where, yes, the initial shock of the war was a risk. No one saw coming. Now that risk is out in the open. and people are able to deal with it and understand what's happening. Even if we don't know how long all the unknowns involved in it, there's no more left field with this. I don't know. Understanding the stock market just gets harder and harder, I think. The longer you do this, it doesn't get easier to understand.

It's not like, ah, I figured it out. I'm not taking the other side just for the other side's sake. But I think that this is pretty straightforward, why the stock market is down more. Like, earnings estimates keep going up. why are we that that's it I think you're right and it's just that the gas prices don't have as big

of impact as they used to I don't know that's it we don't need to overthink this I understand the headlines like yes you would think that the market is down more on you know horrific human news but okay so this is another situation where I guess AI still matters more

all the AI spend and the earnings are still growing and who cares yeah I can buy that that's it all right looking at brought this from Schwab they put out this monthly report we talk about what are their different cohorts doing? Wait, what's it called?

Stacks or stacks. What do I call it? I just called it Stax. I call it S-Tax. What does it stand? I know we've done this before. I can't remember. Who cares?

All right, looking at broader trends among clients, long-term bullish sentiment among members of Gen X, born between 1965 and 1980, fell slightly in March. Negative sentiment in Gen Z, born between 1997 and 2012, declined even more. widening the gap between those groups as Gen Z remained the most bearish and Gen X most bullish.

Millennials and Boomers also. Okay. So young people particularly bearish on the stock market, which makes sense considering the AI economic anxiety. But also, let's be honest, the stocks that these people are liked to buy all of the fun stocks, they're getting destroyed. Can you also say that the older generations have just lived through more of this stuff and don't freak out as much as the younger generations? I don't know if that's true. I wrote about this in my book. And remember with the death of equity story,

the infamous story from Business Week, they interviewed all these people for the book. And the people giving up on stocks after 1970s were mainly young people. Old people held tight and kept buying. Young people were like, all right, I'm done. No way. I've seen what happens.

This is a bad decade. I'm out of stocks. I think there's something to that, where young people give up easier. Remember millennials said, I'm done to the stock market after 2000. I say, no way I'm going. I saw what happened to my parents in my portfolio. No way. So I have to think more about this, but my neidic reaction would be the young people today and the

young people back then are very different, have very different attitudes towards investing. They're based on available technology. Number two. Emotions are still emotions, though. That's true. But the older people have a lot more to lose. Right. Like if you have a $1.7 million portfolio versus a, I'm just getting started portfolio, those are, those are different things. But yeah, maybe, I don't know. You know there's a lot to lose? Randy Schilling from Corpus Christi, Texas. Let's talk about my favorite stories.

There was a story in the journal. More Americans are breaking into the upper middle class. And for the first decade of Randy's career, he lived in an apartment, worried about paying for vacations, and then in his early 30s, he landed a job at a chemical plant that paid about 15% more plus bonuses. He bought a house on a golf course in Houston, promotions and payways is followed, and boom.

before he even realized it, he saved more than $3 million for retirement. Randy said, I view myself as an average Joe, I don't have to have a fancy car. I don't have to have the greatest TV. Randy's 58. But when I want something, I go get it. So this is the story. There's a lot of Randy's out there. So $3 million in just retirement.

People always ask, like, does that money count include home equity? That's always the, this guy is just $3 million in portfolio. That put you in the top 5%. I have a message for Randy. Go buy the TV, Randy. TVs are very cheap. They get cheaper all the time. Go get the biggest TV you can find.

I was in Walmart last week and, or this week, I should say, 65 inch TV. I think I saw for like $300 something. It's amazing. Every year they get cheaper and bigger and better. I am still flabbergasted that there are DVDs, new DVDs. like five nights at Freddy's, like, or whatever. I mean, whatever's new. There's, who's buying that?

Obviously somebody is. So the technology that still exists that boggles my mind, we got a rental car here and couldn't figure out the car play. It wouldn't work. It just kept going in and out. So we had to put FM radio on. I can't believe FM radio still exists. As someone who is exclusively carplay in all my vehicles,

podcasts, audiobooks, music, the fact that FM radio still in trying to explain FM radio to my kids like go to the next song we can't go to the next song this is it you have to wait for the next song why is someone talking

I agree with you and here's I guess here's like an analogy for that analogy might be the wrong word but oftentimes when I'm driving my wife and we're looking at at small you know small stores on the main road

she'll always say like how are these companies still in business or how are they making any money? And my answer is, just because there is a store on the side of the road that is open, doesn't mean the person behind it is killing it. I'm sure most of these businesses are not very, very profitable. And same thing with FM. Like, obviously, it's a shell of what it used to be.

And it's, you know, ice cube that would probably melt forever. All right, let's get back to the numbers here in this story. So the whole story here is that more people are moving from the middle class to the upper middle class. So they say, and they say in 2024, 19% of Americans were considered poor or near poor, down from 30% in 1979. That's an amazing statistic. Pretty good. That's a huge decrease. And they also show adjusted for inflation, the upper income class has gone from 144,000 in 1970 to 256,000 today, 70% increase. There's been a 60% increase in middle class from 66 grand to 106 grand. and even the lower income has seen a 55% increase.

And this is, again, adjusted for inflation. Okay? These numbers are mind-bogglingly good. Don't you think? Yeah, ridiculously good. And they interview a few people, and this is interesting, the people who are now these newly upper-middle-class rich, whatever you want to call it,

they interviewed one guy who said, instead of worrying about paying for groceries, now he worries to make about his children not becoming spoiled in a town where some teens drive luxury cars to high school. And I know you and I have talked about this ad nauseum. I don't think it's a mystery anymore why people like this are unhappy. Just because there's more people. Hold on.

Randy seems pretty happy. Yeah, Randy's doing okay. But there's always a story about why do these people still feel middle class? Or why do they not feel rich? And when they are by any measure in human history, some of the richest people ever hear. It's because last week we talked about how there's these super rich people. And then I think just the fact that there are more luxuries today that exist,

Look, I feel like I'm turning, slowly turning into a boomer. We got up to dinner last night. We talked about how the vacations we give our kids are 10 times better than the vacations that we got as kids. Correct. And that's just a sign of progress. So you kind of say, oh, this, we didn't have that. But the fact that they do, the next generation now does have that. Not everyone does, obviously, is a sign of progress.

I think all these numbers are just a sign of progress. And that's why people don't feel as rich as they objectively are. I also think there's a, there's like this thing where once you have a certain number, whether it's income, net worth, retirement assets, I think you think you're supposed to feel different. Yes. And then you just feel the same thing. Reaching the goal is not as satisfying as trying to get the goal itself.

Yeah. So there's just more people with more money that maybe as a society are collectively feeling, huh, this isn't as great as I thought it would. There's also another side of this. This is like multi-layered. There's too many of these people, so it's become less special. And it's a great thing. I mean, obviously.

Think about Randy in his thing saying, I don't drive a fancy car. And then the other guy is saying there's teenagers who drive luxury vehicles. Imagine being a person who saved a ton of money and you drive a Honda and you see a teenager driving Mercedes. And you go, what the? Are you kidding me? So I think it's less about that, although that certainly is a part of it. I think it's just like the cost of having money is expensive.

Yeah, the gold post move. You feel like, wait a minute, I've got X amount of dollars and it doesn't feel like that. And I don't feel free. So Majuli wrote over the last year, he wrote a post called the upper middle class trap. Over the last year, I've come to an unsettling realization. The upper middle class is caught in a trap and many of them don't realize it. Homes are smaller, even as prices rise. Lending Tree reported that from 2014 to 2024.

The average size of new single family homes shrunk by 11% even as a price per square foot surge by 74%. All of these trends point toward the same thing. People are paying more and getting less. This is what I call the upper middle class trap. Right now, the upper middle class is in a fierce competition for a marginal improvement in lifestyle. They're working more and relaxing less to purchase products and services

with clearly declining quality. It's a financial arm series that doesn't make any sense. I think it makes perfect sense, but I get that he's doing that. He's writing. Yes, it's a human nature thing. And honestly, I've come to the realization that, like, people talk about lifestyle creep and goalposts moving. I actually think that's a healthy thing if you have a good relationship with it.

Yeah. But there's a lot of people who don't have a good relationship with a good. And to your point, reaching that whatever the milestone is that you thought you're going to get, the income level, the net worth level, the house size, the car, whatever it is. And you get it and you go, wow. And then you're like, Wait a minute. Where do the money go? How come there's not more money in my account than I thought there was? Because so I also, can we come up with a better phrase in lifestyle creep?

Creep is a negative word. Lifestyle creep is a negative phrase. I think it should be celebrated. You're making more money and providing for your family. Now, if you get into trouble and you're over leverage, that's a different story. That's not lifestyle creep. That's being financially irresponsible. But you're supposed to make more money and spend more money. Like that is your, right? Isn't that what it's for? Are you supposed to hoard your money? what's the point of that? And my thinking has changed completely on this. I'd say in the last like five years,

but I was walking around Florida the other day. And I saw two old couples leaving dinner. Okay? And you know some old people where they just sort of, they have the hunch walk. Yeah. And they kind of like, okay,

something's wrong with their back. And the two older gentlemen were both heading the hunched walk. And the women were kind of slowly. And they looked like they were just in declining health. And I see that and I think, I don't want to wait until I'm that age to enjoy my money. I texted you. I said, I'm not going to wait. That that's not, you don't want to be at that stage where you can't enjoy it anymore.

And I think that sort of idea, too, has taken hold of a lot of people. That why, why am I going to wait? What's the point of having a bigger nest egg later in life when I can't enjoy it as much? Yeah, that's like foundational for my thinking. My mom died when she was 56 years old. Not that she had any money to spend, but life is short. enjoy it. Yeah.

All right, we got an email with the subject line, worst amount of wealth. There is a scene in succession. Greg is excited to get $5 million. Tom and Connor proceed to tell him that's the worst amount of money. One of the great scenes in succession history, for sure. Yeah. I love that scene. What's the phrase?

Five million is. Maybe it's just five million is worse. All right, whatever. Poor's rich guy, tallest dwarf, et cetera. Oh, five million is a nightmare. That's what it was. I recently turned 40 and my wife and I crossed $1 million in investable assets. Congratulations.

Almost entirely in retirement accounts. And I have to tell you, this might be the single worst level of realistic wealth a normal person can occupy. Let me make my case. Now, this is like half tongue on cheek. This person is not like, you know, this person is not an asshole. It's a little hyperbole. Yeah. Small market downturns are raised an entire year of your life.

my wife and I were down about 6% of March. You know what 6% of $1 million is. My wife's entire teaching salary, gone in a month. This is obviously not true. I mean, right? Like, it's like stock versus flow type of thing. This is not the way to think about your portfolio. But I understand what you're saying.

You can't contribute it enough in a year to matter. Roth IRA limit this year is $7,000. On a $1 million portfolio, that's less than a 1% contribution. Even when I include my 401k, Y4, 3B, Roth, et cetera, we're still talking about a sub 5% annual contribution. That's a good thing. that's compounding, bro. That means that your portfolio has outstripped your ability

or outgained your ability to contribute meaningfully till late. Now... This is the midlife portfolio crisis here. Yeah, these are champagne problems. You still can't retire, not even close. A million dollars sounds like retirement money. It's not retirement money, not even the same zip code as retirement money. The 4% rule says, like, I can pull 40K year before taxes.

That's nothing. I'm yelling at them joking, smack him in the back of the head. It's like, dude, you're 40. Why are you talking about retirement for? What does this portfolio be worth when you're 60? And then lastly, you can't complain to anyone. This is the coolest part. I can't tell my friends.

I can't tell my family. The moment the number leaves my mouth, the conversation is over, no one cares. So instead, I'm emailing a podcast at 445 on a Friday look like a completely normal person. Anyway, I understand this.

We all get this person saying. He's not genuinely looking for sympathy. But you're 40. What are you talking about? Yeah, you're not going to spend it yet. And guess his portfolio in 20 to 25 years with a 7% annual return, if I'm doing my Buffet back the head,

he's going to be worth like four, four and a half million dollars. If he just doesn't do anything of this money. Yeah. He's going to go with way more. So congrats. Just wait 20 years. Then you'll really be in the nightmare scenario. But you mentioned this.

I think there is something to the fact that if your portfolio size is bigger and you see a bigger dollar loss on a smaller percentage decline, that can screw with you. And this is why people slowly but truly get a more defensive and conservative in their portfolios over time. Because they don't want to see that anymore. They already won the game. Anyway. That's a fair. some people are going to go, oh, boo-hoo, but I think that's a fair email.

Yeah, listen, all of this is fair. We're all people. You're allowed to feel how you feel. It's not like this person's got $19 million in his complaining, right? Like, this is a very common feeling. Yes, let's focus all of our hate on the super wealthy, the 0.1%. Correct. Those jerks.

This is surprising. The Bloomberg from Cameron Dawson via Daily Trevor. The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index has jumped higher in recent weeks, thanks to data surprising to the upside. I got to be honest. I don't know what this thing measures. It looks good. I don't know what it measures.

I believe it measures surprises. I believe it's the name of an old ship. I don't know how it's quantified. But it's the difference between. Yeah. Like you beat the number or you miss. Yeah. goes up and good times down and bad times.

Fair enough? Yes. All right. Let's get back to oil. CBS News calculated how much it costs to fill up a gas tank of a different size or style of car. So a Toyota Rav 4 is like $60 to fill up. Toyota Camry is 50-ish. F-150 is almost 150 bucks to fill up.

And it probably doesn't matter for most people. Is that fair? Like economically. I don't know when we start saying most people. No, no, I'm saying again for the economy. I just don't think if you're in the bottom 20 or 30 or 40%, yeah, this is, it hurts. It's painful. But I guess you see a number like 150 bucks to fill up a car and you go, geez, unbelievable.

When I first started driving in the late 90s and gas was like 95 cents a gallon, I would put $5 in my car. It's funny because in my high school brain would be like, I can't fill it up all the way. Too much money. I'll just put five bucks in. nobody filled their tank up in high school. No, I would put $5 a week in my Honda Accord, and it would last me all week, and then I put $5 in the next week.

So $150 seems like an insane amount of money. But I think even if you inflation adjusted it, $150 to fill up a huge truck is probably not that much historically, even though it seems like an outlandish number. It does seem like an outlandish number. Look at Mike Antonelli. Happiest man in the world. Talking a lot about how the people online might be upset,

not be that happy. Look at this guy. He just texted us. Look at that smile. Where is it? I can't tell. Where do you think Michael Antonelli is? Oh, it's got to be Disneyland. Happy's place on earth. Happiest man on earth and the happiest place on earth. Okay, so the Wall Street Journal decided to look at the counter. So their whole thing that everyone's been saying is, listen, inflation adjusted prices for gas aren't that bad. There's higher fuel efficiency in cars. That's true. Like your Jeep EV does it still work? The electric part of it? it. Don't get me started. Okay. My wife asked about getting a hybrid for her next vehicle and I thought, I don't know. Oh, wait, wait, hold on. Actually, you, this is an

interesting point. So I've got a month left with my car. I almost died on the highway again last week. So Robbins, Robbins Audi, which is a car that I was $25,000 underwater on for listeners that weren't with us back then. I took it this morning for an oil change. I didn't pay for the prepackaged service where everything is free because I'm already paying an arm and a leg for this piece of shit car. $390 plus tax for an oil change. And I said, hold on.

That sounds like a lot. Oh my Lord. $390? He said it's a $3.0 engine. I said, so? What does that even mean? So it was more oil. I'm like, are you fucking people the worst.

Okay. Take it to a valve way next time. So anyhow, my, so yeah, my Jeep did the Jeep death wobble thing on the highway the other day. So Robin, Robin has the car today and she's taking the boys to basketball. And I said, don't drive over 60 in the highway because you'll get the death wobble. And she looked at me. She goes, what are we doing here? Anyhow, so I've had multiple people ask me about the Wrangler. Because it's a great looking car.

You've got the electric roof. Like, it's a cool looking car, right? And it's, it's affordable. I think I pay, I don't know how much the new one is, but I pay like 600 something from my car, which is a steel. Right. Jeep's look, or one of the coolest looking cars that there is, and they will never go out style.

Here's a problem, Ben. Anytime somebody asks me how I like the car, you know, I fly off the handles. But I found myself in an awkward position multiple times where, you know, a couple months later, I see them with the car. So here, here's my new move. you just, yeah, it's like, car looks great. It doesn't really drive that awesome. And they just leave it at that.

They can make their own decision, right? Yeah, true. So the journal says the biggest difference is, yeah, all that stuff is true. Like inflation adjusted, energy is a small part of household budgets, but it's the speed of the increase that gets to psychology. And so they said it's gas is a dollar and five cents higher than it was five weeks earlier, which is one of the fastest increases we've had in a long time. And they said that they did a study.

economists have found that round number prices for retail items have salience with consumers. The 2010 Brookings Institute paper found that people were unhappy on days when gasoline rose above $350 and $4 a gallon. I do think there is some psychological line in the sand of $4 a gallon, $5 a gallon that could have like some weird consumer sentiment impact, even if it doesn't really hurt household budgets as much as you would think. It's just another thing. It's just another thing that's going up in price. I guess so. But it's the one thing. that the prices are everywhere. I think that's the difference. Maybe gas prices don't matter. Is that you're saying? It's possible. That's not what I'm saying. Okay. Like what other price

should we put on a big billboard like that? So everyone knows what it is all the time. The price is constantly changing. The S&P 500, everybody would be much happier. That would be kind of cool if at the gas station, you saw the Dow and the S&P and the NASDAQ right below gas prices. be accompanied by the gas price. If you put $10,000 into the SEP 500 in 2010, here's what it would be worth today. And yes, I'm cherry picking. True. Okay. Torson Sloc says that AI is having no signs of impact on youth unemployment rate. Well, Torsten Slocke is wrong. I don't know. He says the bottom line is, listen, the bottom line is there's no sign that AI is increasing unemployment among younger workers. And there's also no sign that young people or recent

college graduates are having a harder time finding jobs at the moment other than demographic. So he should put these charts in here. And he shows the unemployment rate 16 years and plus or 20 to 24. And you can see that there's not a lot of movement there outside of like the regular unemployment rate. And then he also shows among college graduates 22 to 27. It's increased a little for men or it's increased a little for females, but it's fallen for men and they're kind of at the same place, essentially. So you could say this is cherry picking. There's other data that supports this. I think this. this data, I still think the AI impact mixed with the COVID impact that stuff we're still

dealing with. I think it's still too early to see the AI impact of the labor market. I kind of agree with him. I just, oh, you agree with him? I agree with him. I just reject this. How many stories are we hearing about young people and the difficulties with getting a job? Maybe unemployment rate doesn't capture the numbers right. I just, I don't buy this. But you're talking about anecdotes. he's talking data. I don't know that the unemployment, I'm saying I don't know that unemployment rate is the right data to be looking at.

Isn't that the best labor market indicator we have? I don't know. You've been going to the war with data lately. What about hiring? What about hiring rates? But doesn't, the unemployment rate takes that into account because it's people looking for jobs.

I don't know about that. It is. That's the definition of it. Well, if you believe the government data. All right. You're dabbling in conspiracy theories lately. I kind of like it. You know, go for it.

I think this is an anti-conspiracy theory. I think this is complete horseshit. Anybody with the brain understands that companies are less eager to hire young people. I don't care what the unemployment rate is today. Now, if he's saying, if he's saying that, so maybe I'm projecting in him saying that AI is not having an impact and it's not. going to in the foreseeable future. He's not saying that, but that's how I'm taking it. All right. Well, anyway, what's the point of this chart? It's like, all right, so nothing to worry

about, I guess. Like, why post this? The point, I think the point is that a lot of people think the impact should be happening now and it's not happening yet. Okay. Well, then in that case, fair enough. All right, here's a chart that blew my face off. David Senra had the founder of DoorDash on the show. I haven't listened to it yet. And there, there's a chart of U.S. food delivery market share by consumer spend percentage. And DoorDash just destroyed Grubhub. I don't know the dynamics or the economics or the incentives or the technology or whatever. I don't know.

But DoorDash. I don't get it either. DoorDash ate Grubhub's lunch. Get it? So Grubhub went from 70% of food delivery in 2016 to 10%. That's insane. So this feels like an Uber Eats is just kind of, flatline. I actually use both Grubhubh and DoorDash. I don't have, because I think I get a credit

card deal on one of them and an Amazon deal on another one. So I don't really have, I don't, it doesn't, it's, it's the same to me. I don't notice a difference when I use one of the other. Maybe it's, maybe DoorDash has done a better job of partnering with restaurants. Like, if you order Chipotle, their delivery, they partner with DoorDash. Or if you go to rest, so maybe that's where they've done. Growlop used to be public. What happened to it? I don't know. So I have a conspiracy theory I want to run by you. Think, speaking of DoorDash. So on vacation, kids have to have a lot of sunscreen.

We put sunscreen on my little daughter. She has a very fair skin, like five times yesterday. She still got burnt. I think that spray sunscreen is either the door dash of sunscreens or it's a total conspiracy theory and it doesn't work. Because you spray like one bottle in a day, essentially. I don't think it works. I think spray sunscreen is a racket.

Thoughts. I think it's, it makes you, it's easier to do because you don't have to like lather up and put it all over the kids and stuff. But it doesn't work. It works 25% as well as putting lotion on a kid. So Grubhub burned $7 billion in equity, sold for $650 million in 2025. Okay. Yeah, it was, it was, yeah, stock fell. Bottom. The sale to wonder. Food delivery startup. I don't know. I don't think sunscreen is a, is a, is a, I think so. Well, you're a guy who puts a lot of sunscreen on because

a bald head, so you don't want to get, so do you use, would you use spray in your head or do you rub it in? Well, I wear hats. That's true. But I see when we, when we go, go places that are warm, you put a lot of sunscreen in your head for good reason. Oh, you got it. You don't want to, yeah. Yeah, sunscreen. Sunscreen works. Um, nice try there. No, spray sunscreen. The spray stuff. The spray stuff. I think it's a racket, the spray bottles, because it's gone immediately. The other stuff, everyone has in their medicine cabinet, a, bottle of sunscreen lotion that's like 13 years old because that's of last forever. Okay. From the Wall Street Journal, the typical U.S. home is 44 years old and needs tons of work.

So they break down the age of America's homes. And they break them down by 14 years or less and then by 10 year increments from there. And something like 30 million homes are 55 years or older, which is kind of insane. There's only 10%, 12% of homes that are 14 years or less. So obviously we're not building a lot of new homes. And they're just saying in the years ahead, there's going to be a ton of work that's going to. Remember the email we got? Wasn't it just last week? The person said, I bought a new house and all I did was put a ton of money into it.

There's going to be a lot of that in the future, especially as the boomer houses that they've won for 30 years turn over and young people realize like, not only is there cosmetic stuff I want to do, but there is structural stuff I need to fix. The new water heater, the new AC unit, the new HVAC, whatever. There's a few homes in my neighborhood that are listed and the floor is like $800,000. for a, I don't know, 2,600 square foot high ranch. So not the greatest layout, not a super desirable house, but $800,000 is about the floor. And these are houses that need a complete gut job.

And I just don't know. Like 200 grand of work, probably. Who has the money for that? Now, it just has to be coming from parents. That's it. There's no other explanation. You can't put down $200,000 on a $6,000. and a half percent mortgage and then also put $150, $200,000 into a house.

Nobody has a type of money. So this should be a new type of mortgage. Listen, I need to borrow a million dollars, not $800,000 because I need to put money into the house and it's going to increase the value. That'd be a good financial product. But the Walser Journal also says that repairs are way higher than they used to be. So you and I have both dealt with this. Structural repair costs grew 14% in real terms between 2022 and 2024.

plumbing jumped 24% again, this is after inflation. This is funny because it says financial advisors traditionally suggest setting aside 1% of a home's value for annual upkeep. Some say for these older homes is more like 2 to 3%. What percentage of the population actually does this? 0% of the percentage of the home values. Well, the same percentage of the population that is a year in cash for a living emergency. I mean, nobody does that.

The housing market is in disarray. Home Depot stock, I don't know if disarray is right. word here. It's just in hibernation. No, it's, it's worse. Whatever the worst word is on the planet, what's the worst word on the planet. That's what how that's the housing market. I said the word debacle to my kids yesterday. I made it to ask me, what does that? My son always asked me, what does that mean? What does that mean? He's trying to use new words. And his new word this week is nonchalant. And he goes, dad, I don't know where he got it from. He goes, dad, you're very nonchalant. And I said, you are.

What do you think nonchalant means? And he said, I don't know, just like, you know, you're nonchalant. You're like, you're kind of cool. And I'm like, oh, really cool. I'm like, okay, I'll take that. Yeah, but I guess I am. But here's the thing. Back to the housing thing.

There's $34 trillion in home equity. So if you own a home with a lot of equity, you don't get to complain. The new, the person you mentioned, you buy a house. You have to save the down payment and put the renovation cost in. That person is in a really, really bad situation. If you have a ton of equity in your home because you bought it three plus years ago, three years or earlier, then you don't get to complain because you have a ton of equity in your home. You can just pull that equity out to fix the home up. All right.

So, Ben, are stocks forward looking? Sometimes. Good answer. So Home Depot seems to be, home depot is the stock that, in my opinion, most accurately represents the overall level of housing activity. Would you agree? It's for builders. It's for buyers. It's for owners.

It's for everybody. There's housing activity going on. Home Depot stock is, Home Depot, the company is working. Forget about the stock. The company's working, right?

Okay. Okay. What is it down right now? I have no idea. Is it down 20% from the highs? Worse than that. So, Home Depot,

yeah, eyeball yet looks about right. But let me just math this real quick. Home Depot is down 27, 26% from the top. And it is at the lowest level since December 2020. Now, we know why Home Depot stock is getting destroyed. It should be destroyed.

The business is not faring very well. Do we not think that housing, is Home Depot saying that this is going to be a minute, that rates are going to be higher for longer? Or is the market rolling? It's already have been higher for longer. Yeah. Yeah. So anyway, this is not, this is, if you use Home Depot's engage for future housing activity,

maybe you should, maybe you shouldn't have thought, you know, I don't know, but not looking great. Okay, interesting animal spirits factoid. Because we have a lot of people who email us saying flyover states or coastal elitist. This is in a, there's an Atlantic story talking about people are moving to Midwest now because the southwest has been to, or southeast has got too expensive for some people. So they said one of the first known uses of the term flyover country in print came from Midwestern in 1980, issue of Esquare magazine, Thompson McGuane, a native of Michigan, said because we live in a flyover country,

We tend to try to figure out what is going on elsewhere by subscribing to magazines. 1980. Didn't know that. That's all I got. Keep a wound in the Midwest, it says, but I'm sure these are on the edges. All right, we're going to do private markets or not? Here's an interesting thing to me. So, Blue Owl is the big story saying that, like, redemptions for two of their funds were 22%,

41%, which is a massive, massive number. So they kept them at 5%, which they're, that's in the rules. That's that they're right. But they also said, under the 5% limit, the larger Blue Owl Fund will pay out redemptions of $98 million, but it also received $872 million of new investments. So a lot of these stories don't, these aren't in the headlines, these numbers that these funds are still bringing money in. Who is still putting money into these funds right now?

Where's the money coming from? So was that, was that, that was in the first quarter? Is that what that report is? Yeah, so you think maybe that's a stale number? Like these people made those fill the paperwork out before all this stuff happened, maybe? I would assume that there is approximately, I don't say zero dollars going right now, but there's, that has to be stale. Okay, that makes sense to me because, well, again, it's not like this stuff happens.

One day you put the money in like, there's a lot of paperwork involved. Right, right. And you have to put a note of interest. Okay, that makes sense. The thing is all the private credit funds, are rightly showing, like, talking about loan quality and the fact that default rates historically have been pretty low. But no one cares about that stuff if this much money is rushing out.

That doesn't matter at all. In a crisis of confidence, no one cares about the loan book. That's true. That's true. It also doesn't matter because it's like, I don't care what happened. I care what we think is going to happen to the loans. So these funds are also relatively new. There was a big profile about Cliffwater in the Wall Street Journal.

And they say, Cliffwater's fund CCLFX, for example, was the only one of its peers to have withstood the COVID market downturn in 2020. And then they put a parentheses. A footnote noted that no comparable funds operated during the downturn. So this is still such a new asset class for people to invest in. And these fund structures are still so new. And that's one of the reasons I think that we're having all these problems. This is new stuff for people for investors.

You know, it's also new stuff, Ben? you and I are going to be doing a podcast in Washington, D.C. next week. That's right. Wednesday, April 15th, tax day in the capital's country. Nope, the country's capital. Washington, D.C. We'll be talking to Alex Morris of FM Invest. If you're around, come say hi.

I can see us doing a nice long walker across. It's a great walkable city to see all the sites. Fantastic. It's the kind of place that the first time you walk around Washington, D.C., and you see the monuments, it is kind of mind-blowing. I walked around D.C. kind of recently, Josh and I were there. This during the shutdown, actually, was very bizarre. There was nobody there. It's fun times. All right. I got some travel thoughts. Wait, hold on. Before you get into your travel stuff, I asked Rob, Hey, Rob, pull all the animal spirits recordings for 2025 and tell me how many.

times I say the word ostensibly. So. How was he able to do this? He pulled the transcripts? Yeah. You were, this might have been your worst take. Remember last week I said, I said one every three episode tops and I'm still taking the under?

Okay. So Ben tried to roast me for saying the word ostensibly, very frequently. How many times do you think I said it in 2025? By the way, this includes all animal spirits properties. So we did two episodes. So we did 100 and something episodes last year. 15. Wow, that's backpiling if I've ever seen one.

You've said the expectations. Six, buddy. All right. I'm going to have to audit these results and also have them cross-reference, the compounded friends. Six times. Get out of here. All right. Travel.

What's one of them? I talked about vacations being different. The fact that Airbnb houses now exist, I know that rental houses have always been a thing. I don't know when I grew up how my parents would even know how to find a vacation rental house because we never did it. So at our stage in life, you and I both have relatively young kids, having the ability to stay in a house and rent a house, Airbnb, VRBO, whatever. It's just so much easier to do. And having that, having a house with kids at this age with laundry and a TV and the ability to relax, it's such a game changer. I can't even overstate how it's funny because Airbnb obviously created this brand new thing,

essentially, and their stock has done nothing since they went public. Absolutely nothing. They have gotten no economic value out of this thing they created. Well, that's not true. New shareholders happened. They created a lot of money in private markets. True. Right?

Because what was, I mean, not to be a dick, but like, seriously, what, what are go public at valuation-wise. Yeah, it was $100 billion. I think it's, yeah, not too different from that. So there was, there's been a lot of people who have said, listen, the internet came out. And since the internet came out, there has been no change in trend line for economic growth. Like the internet created no economic growth whatsoever. It didn't change the trend. Like the internet made us all more efficient in a lot of ways, but it didn't, it didn't like add to the economic output in meaningful ways. And I almost think that AI in a lot of ways is going to do that at the beginning. I have a question for you. Is that not a case of like numbers lying? Like, what do you mean?

Amazon created no value? No economic value? Like just, I just nonsense. You're right. Maybe it changed, but it's like it didn't increase GDP. Like GDP didn't see meaningful increase. So you're right, maybe it boxed out and it took value from other places and GDP would have been lower absent that. But that's a point people have made. The internet has not created a huge amount of more economic growth. It didn't change the trend line of GDP growth. Correct. So I think AI, especially at the beginning,

everyone thinks it's going to change everything in the future. I think in the beginning it's going to be a lot like that. Because think about it. So AI is a great travel agent, right? Someone gave me six, one of our Adam, who lives in Naples, Florida, one of our advisors, gave me like five restaurants. He said, I said, I just want to place by the water. Give me some options.

He gave me like five restaurants. I said, these are our favorites. We had to drive down from Fort Myers to Marco and on the way is Naples. So I put in these five restaurants in the chat, and I said, give me one that's on the water, good drinks, good for families, but also not too far off the beaten path. And we've been doing this on a daily basis to plan stuff out, AI, which makes people a lot less adventurous, obviously.

But what economic value does that create for the society? It just makes our experience a little better. I think AI is going to do a lot of that for people. But AI is an amazing travel agent. Is it not? When you have questions about something, how does this work? Where do I go park? How does, you know, it's how do I find this on the out?

It's awesome. All right. One last thing. I have a huge announcement to make. Huge, groundbreaking announcement. After years of research. No, no, come on. After years and years of research, extensive research, okay, I put in the time.

I think I had my first Miami Vice 15 years ago. Okay. I'm willing to name the best Miami vice that there is. I found that I've tried it multiple times. I get excited every time. There's a, there's a restaurant called Stilts at a Marriott property in Marco Island and they have the best Miami Vice. Something they do to their Pinia colada. It's just creamier. They put little flex of coconut on the top. So this picture I put in here, it's literally the perfect mix. It's the perfect Miami Vice. It can't get better than this. All right. Shout out this place one more time. It's called Stilts in Marcona. Very cool place. Overlooking the ocean. It's called Stiltz because it's raised. You know what else? I feel like maybe it's just the picture that you took. This looks perfect. The way that the floater seeps into the drink, as opposed to just floating on the top,

and then you spill it out as you walk. Like this does look perfect. You're right. That's a downside of some of them if the folder's going over and you spill it on yourself. My kids always make fun of me because I take pictures of my drinks and send it to you guys when I'm on vacation.

And I go, dad, take another picture of drink again? Really cool. This is a picture perfect. All right. This is a, we spoke last week about club soda, Seltzer. Somebody said, Michael, there's a big difference between the two. Club soda has added sodium. Seltzer does not. If blood pressure or hypertension is at all on your radar,

you're much better off of plain seltzer. Okay? Not to confuse you the issue, but if heartburn or acid reflux is an issue, you're better off the plain water. So I've been taking nexium every day for about five years. Nexium is to prevent acid reflux. I get Surrey's Harper when I eat like meat.

That can't be healthy, right? Does it work? Yes. Does that actually work or not? Tums wouldn't do it for you. If I skip a day, I feel it. Louis C.K. told a joke, like, how he went to the doctor when he was over 40.

Like, nobody cares about when you're over 40, it's like, whatever. His ankle was hurting. The doctor said, just take, like, eight Advil a day. And he said, ate Advil. It's like, like, bad for my liver. he's like, what would you say if I was an athlete? Doctor said, you're not an athlete. So I guess, you know, you got to, you got to.

So I thought about this more about what do you call it. I think I call it, it's funny because I call it, I call it, I don't say soda. I say pop. I remember people in New York when I would order at a restaurant or people make fun of me. But I think I'd call it soda water. I think that's my term for it. Okay. Now that I thought about it more.

Ben, I, I discovered something about myself. Okay. I don't love, all right, so we're talking about movies now. I don't love the garbage crime genre. And I don't know if I'm giving credit to Chris Ryan and Sean Fantasy for making this turn out. But so I watched Crime 101. That's one of the Hemsworth brothers? Yes.

It's got a great cast. Chris Hamsworth, Ruffalo, Halley, Nick Noltey. Remember that guy? By the way, Nick Nulte is 85 selecting. Barry Keogan. Who else is in it? Monica Barbaro.

So this is they have cops, but they also have, this is one last job to get the haze? Is that the idea? Probably. Yeah, yeah. Now, don't get me wrong.

So the movie was like, I just didn't, it wasn't that good. It was, I had a good enough time watching it. I'll watch the next one. I watch these movies. I don't like dislike them.

It's just not my favorite genre. I didn't really realize it fully until I just check the reviews after I watched. I was like, oh, it was fine, whatever. 89 from the critics, 85 from the audience. And I realize that there's a disconnect. So, like, Heat is obviously the best version of this type of movie, right? So maybe people overrate these movies? Is that it?

I don't know. Yeah, and I do love Heat, and I can't wait for the prequel. No, it's a sequel and a sequel. So here's what I compare it to for me. It's like barbecue food. Now, if I'm in the area of barbecue, I will eat the shit out of it and I will enjoy it. But I don't seek it out. Okay.

Like, I don't eat. I don't, like, I like barbecue food. I just don't eat it at home. It's not my favorite, it's not my favorite genre. So, Crime 101. Yeah, it's okay. I'm kind of surprised that I don't love those movies. A movie like, a movie like Ronan, I think is like one of the perfect types of that movie.

I think that's one of the most underrated 90s movies there is. Awesome car chase scenes. Good twist at the end. great, you know, European, they have better car chase scenes than we do here. Yeah, I like one of the best versions of that. Just fine. Okay. So I think that movie is amazing.

All the George Butler movies. Like, I watch all them. Not all them. I want, and, you know, whatever. They're just, they're just fine. I think the thing is they've gotten junkier over time because the good stuff has already been done. Yeah. I, uh, I'm really enjoying Rooster and DTF.

I know I keep studying this every, every show, but are you watching those or no? I'm probably three episodes in for both of them. I'm enjoying both as well. HBO still got it. So here's great news about DTF. It's only, it's a miniseries. It's like 20. How long are the episodes?

Are they even 30 minutes? 30 to 40. I'm a sucker for the miniseries too. If I see that it's a miniseries and it's six or seven episodes, I will definitely give it a try. Seven episodes out. Yes. And you know there's going to be finality to it as well.

You know it's going to end. It's not going to be a cliffhanger. And I love Rooster. there's no bad guy. It's just like a nice show. Yes. Steve Corral. Yeah.

Very low stakes. I took my kids to see two movies so far this break. We're home. Spring break. Not a lot of people are home, so we're trying to fill the time. Movies is a great solution to that. Hoppers was an awesome kids movie. It's like the Avatar premise.

In fact, they explicitly say it in the movie. My kids like that one. I didn't see it with them. Hoppers is great. Good, clean, storymates. sense. All right, we saw Mario in the giant IMAX yesterday in New York City. And the kids loved it. It was Kobe's favorite movie, even better than Goet, which was like his previous favorite movie. It was, um, I heard Sean and Amanda saying this, like how they just said it was like

creatively bankrupt. It was like they're just being haters. Like they're being like movie snobs. How bad could it be? It was really tough. Like there was there because I think there was, there was no plot and it was just, there were so many different characters. It was just like really confusing. I fell asleep a few times. Whatever. Who cares? It's not for us. It's for the kids. And the kids loved it. Kids don't care. Kids don't. Yeah, kids don't care. Kids don't care. Kids don't care. Because we tell them. Kids have terrible taste in movies. Every kid loved it. Every kid loved it. All right. Um, I haven't been watching most stuff because I'm on vacation, but I did on the way down watch is this thing on. It's the Willarnette movie and Bradley Cooper wrote and directed it. Okay.

It's a movie about Will Arnett does, turns into a stand-up. And they use the comedy seller in it, actually, which is kind of cool. But it's, it's bizarre. And here's my one takeaway from the movie. Bradley Cooper needs to chill out. He needs to stop taking himself so seriously. Okay? So he just, because he was the best when he was on wedding crashers and all the comedy

and hangover and all the comedy movies he did, right? He was perfect for those roles. Then he decided, you know what, I'm graduated from comedies and I'm going to become a serious filmmaker. And he's done like some great movies. I thought Star Wars Born was really interesting until I still think it was kind of weird. The guy peed himself on stage. I don't know. That was a choice.

But he wrote and directed this movie. And it's a movie about, it's a sad movie about stand-up comedy. Okay? So it's, it's, um, what's the voice name? The one from, I'm blanking. She's from Jurassic Park. I get her and Laura Lennie confused. Lord Dern.

Laura Dern. Is it her and Willer, I'm not giving too much away. I think it's in the previews. Her and Will Larnette. get at divorce at beginning of the movie. And then he, that somehow leads him to do stand-up. But at one point,

he walks in and does an open mic at the comedy cellar, which probably is impossible. But the way that, they use stand-up, but the stand-up is not funny. It's, I don't find myself laughing at a movie about stand-up.

And I feel like that, doing this movie about stand-up is almost impossible to do. I thought funny people did it really well. That's probably the only one I can remember actually did a good job of it. But most, and that Pete Holmes show on HBO was good.

Crashing was so good. You can't do a sad movie about stand-up comedy. It doesn't work. So I think Bradley Cooper needs to chill out a little bit. You know what? That's great advice. I like you.

A very high-quality movie, great acting, great cinematography, whatever. Everyone loved early Bradley Cooper. But then he also did Maestro, the Leonard Bernstein movie. That no one watched, I don't think. Literally nobody cares.

You're right. That does my take it. It was a movie about stand-up, a guy trying to be a stand-up comedy. but it took itself way too seriously. That's where I landed. One more thing. So my love of sports was waning in like my mid-30s-ish.

It's like, you know what? I've been a huge sportsman a whole life. I just can't make myself care as much as I used to. I kind of sought my love of, and especially college sports, just kind of like, whatever, it's becoming more professionalized and I don't care as much anymore. And then now my kids are getting into it. And so Libby got really into when Michigan won the national title in football three years ago and got really into it.

And took her to a game. And it was a fantastic memory from me taking her to a game. And it's them winning it and watching it with the kids and seeing them get excited. And then this year, finally, my son George got really into the basketball team. And I guess it helps that it's the best Michigan basketball team ever. And we went to one of the games and it was so much fun last week. And then we watched the final four this weekend. And they won it.

They got to know all the players. And just viewing it through their eyes, I think, has been. It made my love of sports come back to me. And obviously it helps when your teams are winning. I told them, like, guys, we just won two national titles in the last three years. Like, don't expect this to happen all the time. But it was a lot of-old. And my son said I'm nonchalant, but they also get to see the lunatic version of me watching sports.

You know, because the game last night was really ugly. And Michigan almost blew it like three times. And I'm a complete lunatic that is during the game. And I'm sure you have this too, where in your kids see, like, who is this person? Why is this lunatic person acting like this during a sporting event? It's the only time in my daily life that I get excited. I think me too. But I mean like physically, you know.

Yes. All right. Ben, on that point, I want to play something. Let me share my screen here. Okay. How much the officiating changed the game by this guy? I mean, is there fine? I mean, what? I mean, that is, that is how you use this guy.

Dan Hurley is of this guy. I can see that. That's pretty good. That's the coach of Yukon. I guess what? The calls didn't go their way? He's a maniac. He was very against the calls in the first half and they got all the calls in the second half.

So I thought it balanced out pretty good. But that's your job as a coach to complain about the officials. The other cool thing about like being, obviously having your team win it is amazing. So my son was decked out in Michigan head to tell yesterday. Michigan hat, Michigan shirt, Michigan shorts and Michigan sandals, like way too much. But everywhere we walked around the island, people would say, like, go blue. Because obviously everyone is a win from Michigan and spring break right now. So that part of it is really fun.

I highly recommend having your team win a championship. Great, great experience. I did it twice for the Giants. It's been a minute. It has been a minute. All right. Ben, enjoy the rest of your vacation. Give me a market update.

S&P down 1%. Yeah, we were talking about this on TCAF. Zuccotti had a good chart. Bottoms are messy. Now, I don't know if this is the bottom or not, but like a V shape where it's just like you never look back. Like, yeah, that happened last time in 2025 during the Tower of Tamtram. That's unusual because it's not like if there's been enough damage to individual stocks

and there certainly has, it's not like everybody goes back in the pool immediately absent a headline, right? Because there's headlines to take you up, Heather, oh, no, we're going up, we're going down, blah, blah, blah. So we'll see. We'll probably do a correction that has some headfakes. A couple dead cat bounces. I think we're due to that.

Will we get it? Eh, probably not. Well, we get what? I feel like getting your expectation of what a correction should be like is probably not what you're going to get. Never is. All right, animal spirits at the compound news.com. Thank you very much for listening.

For those of you who are in the DC area, we'll be there. FM.Invest.com if you're looking to learn more about the event. Personal emails, personal responses. We'll see you next time.