Animal Spirits Podcast - Bear Market Lessons (EP.306)

Episode Date: May 3, 2023

On today's show, we discuss never shorting junk food, a purgatory market, why spending isn't slowing down, our first mortgage rates, the First Republic takeover, and much more! This episode is sponsored by Simplify. Learn more about Simplify ETFs at: https://www.simplify.us/etfs/svol-simplify-volatility-premium-etfFind complete shownotes on our blogs... Ben Carlson’s A Wealth of Common Sense Michael Batnick’s The Irrelevant Investor Feel free to shoot us an email at [e-mail] with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.   Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com   Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's show is brought to you by Simplify Ascent Management. Two weeks ago, Ben and I had Paul Kim on the show to talk about their interesting suite of ETFs. Diversifier, diversifiers was the idea. One of them that's kind of interesting is option premium through the VIX, right? Paul is way better explaining it than us. But it's, and they understand the VIX term structure better than I ever could. That's an interesting one. S-Vol is the name of that.

Very high distribution because it's using option premium. And then the whole idea is that the option positions are trying to mitigate drawdowns, right? When there's an extreme period of volatility, it's kind of like a countercyclical approach. Very interesting. If you want to learn more about simplify ETFs, go to simplify.us. And again, check out our talk your book with Paul Kim for a couple weeks ago called Diversifier, diversifiers. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're

reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ridholt's wealth management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ridholt's wealth management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. This happens once a month or so now where we're kind of in the same room doing a podcast. You and I work across from each other. A little different setup.

We're on what do we call it? A team building experience. What are we calling this? Conference. You call it that. Getaway, Austin, Texas. Yes. Well, you know where we're at?

We're at like a wellness center. I'm calling it that. That's not what it's called. It looks like that. So it feels like we're at, it feels like we're in the place from the retreat from Fleischman is in trouble. That's what this feels like. It's definitely a retreat, compound, something.

We're in Austin on the water. It's very pretty. I kind of feel... But we'll be doing this in two weeks. That's right. We're going to be back again in Florida for the conference. I kind of feel like when I travel for work or vacation or whatever, that the stock market, whatever's happening in there is not actually happening.

So we looked at the stock market today. Through a timestamp, that's your thing. 1024 central time. Yes. It screwed me. I came here and I said, okay, our meeting's at 11 today. And you said, no. we're on central time. It's actually at 10 because on my computer, it was still picking up Eastern

time. So I would have missed the meeting by an hour, our first meeting. So your, your billion dollar idea still holds, I think. How do you feel about the stock market when you travel? I just feel like whatever is happening, it's not really happening. I kind of feel like the stock market, when I go somewhere else, the stock market in my brain shuts off. I'm not attuned as much. I'm not paying attention. And so whatever's happening, it's not really happening. Does that make sense? If the stock market falls, but you don't see it fall. Yeah, it's in a time-up. So the stock market is, I don't know, getting killed today because-regional banks. Or did someone leak the Fed Minutes? Well, regional banks are down 7%. So I'm just going to go

out of the limb and guess that that is causing some consternation. I wanted to get in this later, but the JP Morgan took over First Republic. And I'm a Chase customer. That's more what I do my banking. I logged in yesterday to look at something. And the top of the screen says, First Republic customers, you are not. Now, it says it right there. Oh, you're kidding. Let me check it out. But it says, continue to use your First Republic stuff.

So here's my one take on this whole thing. And the weird thing is, I don't know, it kind of feels like it doesn't matter that much anymore because they're swatting these bank failures away like it's nothing. Is that like a Minsky moment where three, five, seven years down the line, the ease with which they're putting these fires out is going to make something even worse? Well, for now, the damage from the fires seems to be relatively contained. Yes, but it seems like it's very, I mean, these are, Silicon Valley Bank was what, the 16th biggest one in the country by assets or however you, First Republic is a pretty large

bank as well. It seems like putting out these fires has been a relatively simple process. It hasn't required a lot of pain besides, unless you were a customer there and you were worried for a few days. Or an equity holder or probably bond holder. My question is that there's got to be a moment. with which it's like, all right, how many, I mean... Or does J.P. Morgan just become this behemoth and, I don't know, Jamie Diamond's like the Fed.

So I don't know, I don't, I'm not thinking about long-term ramifications of these banks going under, because who knows? But at some point, you would think that the market is going to adversely respond to this? I mean, how many more bank failures can we take? I guess the good news is that this, the kind of stuff that in like the early 1900s would have been a full-on calamity and lead to a depression. We've figured that kind of stuff out. That doesn't happen anymore. That's a good thing. I do think the bad thing is, what are the unintended consequences of that? And I don't know the answer. But that's my whole take on this is people are saying, well, J.P. Morgan got a good deal. And I don't know, but I don't know about all

that stuff. I'm not exactly a forensic accountant for bank balance sheets. But it... But you did read a tweet thread. Yes, it seems weird. All right. So when it comes to the markets, it feels like every few years or few months we have the same arguments over and over again. Active versus passive. Alternative investments. Is the 60, 40, dead? Is this the top? Is this the bottom? Whatever. We have these same things over and over again.

So the argument we're having now, again, is can the stock market hold up with five, four, seven stocks carrying the way? So this is from Mike Sikardi. Always shares some good charts for us. He's showing that big tech, I guess it's seven firms into big technology. I guess,

is NVIDIA one of them now? I don't know. Is up 31% year to date versus like the seven biggest tech firms versus a 3% gain for the rest of the S&P 500. Another one from JPMorgan shows the top 10 largest companies account for basically like, I don't know. So the S&P is up 8% this year call it. It's like 6% of the game. So they show Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Nvidia, Tesla, and Google has to be on here twice because they have two tickers, which is dumb. and always kind of G-O-O-G-L.

I am getting tired. I am getting tired of this. Sam Rowe also had a good take on this, and he has some good contribution charts to this and how F-M-A-A-A-M-G. F-A-A-M-G. Here, as a dad, I got to put this out there. I can't pull. I don't think most people can, but saying FAM.

Hey, fam, what's up? How's it going, FAM? It's a, it's a, I feel like it's a Gen X, Thirst Monster who does that. Yeah, I could never pull it off. Anyway, so we have these. Although, some people can pull it off. Like Rosen says, fam, and it doesn't,

and it's... Okay, yeah. But if you said fame, I would check you. I'm not cool enough for that, that's for sure. Sam, I did like Sam Rose take on the TKer. Did we figure that out? TKR. Okay.

He said that these firms are so much more diversified than they ever were in the past. They have multiple business lines and different forms of revenue. that like we we shouldn't think of it as concentrated anymore. Regardless, I wrote about this in 2021. I wrote a piece about like our five stocks really carrying the market. 2020, I wrote a piece about how those, these biggest companies make up 20% of the S&P. I'm sure you did it in 2019 and on 2018. This is just an argument with the market cap weighted index that we're always going to have. And the thing is, if you look back, I did this one a long time ago, I should, I should pull up the chart of like the 10 biggest stocks in the S&P. And I think I did it every five years going back

to 1980. There's plenty of turnover there. So some of these big. I did this big. I should pull up the chart. I big stocks eventually are going to fall too. GE was the biggest stock forever almost or in the top five or top 10. And so I don't, I don't, I don't, we're doing this again. I just don't think that you should be worried because there's only a handful of stocks carrying the market. This happens. Yeah. I think what's notable maybe is the fact that Apple and Microsoft are now their weight in the S&P is as large as it's, as it's been in this run for the top two stocks. Don't you feel good about that though? Like those are very high quality businesses. That makes me feel safe, not like, in danger. I like that. Oh, that's a good twist.

I guess the, so the implication is that when these stop doing what they're doing, watch out below. That's, that's the, that's the, that's the, that's the, that's the, that's the, that's the, that's the, that's the, that's the, that's the, I'm not saying you, the royal you are worried because the two of the greatest companies of all time having great returns this year. That's fine with me. I'm, I'm, I'm okay with that. If it was a bunch of junkie companies that were, like, leading the way, then I'd be worried. How's that? Speaking of the Royal U, yesterday when we sat down at the conference tables, the circle conference tables, so there's always notepads, right? Yep. And because I don't know, I guess I saw Labowski the other week, I was just, it just triggered a memory.

You know, when he's with Jackie Trehorn. Oh, he does the pencil thing? He does a pencil thing over the notepad. That's what I think when I see those notepads. All right. So here's my counter. Like, yes, the S&P's up 8%. Maybe it'll be up a little less after today.

the equal weighted index is up more than 3% unit date. So it's not like the rest of the market is getting crushed. It's still up a little bit. It's just not up as much. If the S&P was up eight and the S&P equal weight is down six, okay. There are things to worry about, but I don't think this is one of them. Good piece in the Wall Street Journal. I love these profiles.

They get me every time. These are like your financial mysteries. Like, you know, you like the mystery book? This is like Ben Katnip. Yes. So they're looking for the bear market's biggest lessons. And they interview all these regular people about their lessons. We're doing this again where I get logged out of the Wall Street Journal.

Don't tell anyone, but I'm still using your login for this. This is like, I don't share Netflix passwords. I share financial news sites passwords. You're a freeloader. I think I have a, I have. Do you have my barons too? Am I FTA? I don't think you ever gave me your barons.

But they interviewed this guy, and we talk about concentration. lot. And this guy's a 40-year-old accountant, and he said that he put, he had a combined $2 million position in Nvidia and Tesla and said it just skyrocketed until 2022. And I think what, Nvidia was down 70% from the highs, probably. Tesla was pretty similar. So it's part of it. So it says he ends up losing all the money he made since the start of the pandemic, including losses of more than $1 million in his broker's account, which even ate into his initial investment. So he was down. I don't know when he got in. The losses were stressful. times he skipped vacations with family to spend time in keeping an eye on his portfolio.

I feel like I lost many years of my life. I had so many sleepless nights. Sean, what are you laughing at? Nicole's asking about the pillows. We have pillows on the table because... That's a very spacious, echoy room. Yes. So anyway, this is like the stuff about concentrated positions that if you would have just

put $10,000 in, we talk all the time about how if you're... going to be in these greatest performing stocks, you're going to experience massive drawdowns. It's just not worth it. For most people, it really isn't. No, because what you never think about the psychological toll that this shit takes on you, again, the losses were stressful. At times, he skipped vacations with family to spend time trading and keeping an eye on his portfolio.

This is no way to live. But this is my whole thing about the stock market is not functioning while I'm gone. Like, what can you do if you're down 70% that, that you can't put on vacation for a week. Like, I'm going to look harder. Like, what can you actually do if you're in a bad position like that unless you sell it or buy more?

Like, skipping a vacation with your family is not in like trying harder and doing more analysis is not going to help you in that situation. So the subtext here is not buy an index fund and do nothing and enjoy your life, although that's certainly, you know,

a reasonable response. It's diversification. But having concentrated positions is, it's just no way to live. And if you're going to have, say, I want to put some money, into this handful of this stock or these five stocks, whatever it is, just figure out a good thing that you, like a sleep at night position, like 20% of your portfolio, 10, whatever it is, that

it's going to have an impact, but it's not going to cause you to skip the case. Yeah, I don't know where the number is. It's different for everyone. So 20% is obviously concentrated, but when you're, when you have two stocks that is your entire net worth that are as volatile as Tesla and Nvidia, I mean, even having all your money in like, you know, Coca-Cola or Pepsi it would be like irresponsible for something like this. It's just pulling up Ben's investment Excel spreadsheet of my asset allocation, it's probably 80 to 85% is automated, allocated, diversified, and then 10 to 15% or whatever is I can make some other bets and take some chances.

And that's like my, I'm not worried anymore. And if this other piece goes to zero, man, that would sting, but it's not going to end me and it's not going to cause me to, neglect my family. On the flip side, did you see what Chris Salted? Chris Saltis, comma, 50? What? He just kept buying the dips, and he's glad that he did.

Oh, okay. That's good. So the title of the piece was, what, like bear market lessons or something along those lines? Yeah, like biggest bear market lessons. They found somebody who, who happened to take advantage of the sell-off. Okay. Larry Summers thinks the bear market is not over, apparently. He says, be careful in equity markets.

The bond market is predicting recession, but the equity market is not priced it in yet. he actually says that he would be short large-cap stocks here. And he's like a big name, and he always makes headlines. There's no way in a million years that someone in his position who says this actually ever follows through with it. He's an economist talking. Yes, he's just talking, but he said it'd be short, large-cap equities. Although I do, you know, it's part of the, part of the, well, one of the things about

being away from the screen is, like, XLE is down 5% today. I don't know why. I think someone leaked the Fed. Someone knows the Fed's going to come hard. And people keep saying the Fed's going to continue to raise. And I kind of think they might, which is just more good deals for people owning T-bills. But so. Wait, hold on.

So they are, but they are going to raise. Right. Well, a couple weeks ago, we kind of thought it's not going to happen, right? They're done raising the bank failure stuff. Right now, I mean, it is all over the place. Right now, there's an 80% implied probability that they're going to do 25. Yesterday it was 93, so it's down a little bit. But they're going to go.

But that's how quickly this bank thing is over. Remember, we were talking three or four weeks ago, like, this is going to be deflationary. And the Fed has to stop raising that. It was March. It was the March meeting. Yeah. It was March meeting. Actually, people were pounding on the table.

I don't remember exactly what our reaction was. I think I was probably in, they should pause. I think I was in, they should pause, but they're going to go. Yeah. But that was in March. And here we are in May. And I think they're going to go. They're going to do another 25.

I don't know. Is it, does it do anything? That's my whole thing. I can look at it both ways of, is it really having an impact and what's the point of it? Oh, it's having an impact. It's hard to quantify in how long, how long it's. So is it having an impact? It's having a psychological impact, for sure.

It's not having an impact where they want it to, though. It's having, it's having an impact in terms of asset allocation. It's having an impact in the market in some ways in terms of how it's actually impacting their goals of slowing the economy. economy and causing the labor market to chill out and causing prices. It's not doing what they want it to do. I don't know. Is it?

Yeah, probably not. I mean. So Larry Summers said the bond market is predicting a recession. He's probably looking at the inverted yield curve, which is ridiculously inverted. We're going to plaid now. Get that one? Do I get? Of course, get that one.

Okay. Just checking. So the Walter Journal had another one saying junk bonds are not screaming recession. And I think, do you, would you think junk bonds are the bigger tell than an inverted? yield curve since the Fed is the one who's messing with the yield curve? And do you believe junk bonds more than the yield curve now? Absolutely. Because the

Fed is obviously manipulating the yield curve. But credit spreads for high yielding bonds and other bonds are controlled by buyers and sellers. It's entirely controlled by the marketplace. And they worry about if you would see the spread between, sorry, junk bonds.

Okay. Do another cost. One more. Yeah. I need that. Grab a Coke. I'm a little worried you don't have Coke zero in here because I, I'm a convert now. I was telling me, how does Coke Zero taste so good? You've been Diet Pepsi. So, well, so I started off Coke when I was young and you drink Coke. You and Josh are both DP guys.

Yeah, but then here's my evolution. You realize, okay, if I keep drinking regular Coke, which I did throughout college, my teeth are going to fall out and it's rare and healthy. So I go to Diet Coke, and I took a while that I got there, and then I don't like Diet Coke unless I get it from McDonald's. because that's the best Diet Coke in the world. Then I go to Diet Pepsi, and now I'm a Coke Zero guy because Coke Zero tastes like Coke. There's zero sugar. I'm sure someone can say, like, all these fillers

or whatever they use are probably bad for me, but is this how people end up getting healthy? Is that... But counterpoint, I saw you running today, and I saw you in the gym yesterday. Not to brag, yes. I was kind of a short little compounds so everyone could see.

But is this how people eventually get really healthy is that scientists are able to make stuff, like it tastes like chocolate cake, but it's actually not bad for you. The snazberries tastes like snowsberries. You know, speaking of not to brag, which we've pounded to death, I really do feel like Verizon stole that from us. Not that we're the only person to say that,

but I'm sure many listeners have seen the commercial. It's borderline egregious. I've got to see this. So they stole the not to brag. Okay. People keep saying we need to make t-shirts for this. Yeah. And I think we do.

So, okay, we're talking about junk food. This is, everyone's in a while there comes a blog post that I go, I wish I would have to roll this. You know, while we're talking, my eating's been out of control. I just, I feel like I have to get that off my chest. It's been bad. But I'm not getting weight, so I don't know what to make of that. Well, I feel like the food that I'm consuming, it's got a lag like the, like the Fedman

like heights. Like all of a sudden, I'm going to gain 10 pounds like overnight. That's what I feel like. Okay. Keep working out. Balance. All right. So this is one from Phil Perlman, Prime Cuts newsletter.

Phil's the man. He wrote all this junk food is making all-time highs. And this is, so he wrote about all the crappy stuff wheat, McDonald's all-time high, Pepsi, all-time high. General Mills, what do they make? General Mills? Bad cereal for you? Okay. Yum brands, which is Taco Bell Pizza Hut, all-time high. Hershey, all-time high. Just a great take that, like, we always say, like, don't bet against the U.S. consumer. Like, don't bet against people eating crappy stuff. That is, like, all his charts in here. Just a great take. Carl Kintini had the same thing, small-time highs, Chipotle McDonald's, Young Brands, general, all these things. What's Mondalas?

is that? Mondays is also consumer packaged goods. So the OZempic is the new drug that could suppress appetite and make people lose weight. Do you think that there's just something inherently in us that makes us unhealthy and that this is always going to be a problem, no matter what science comes up with? Well, being the scientist that I am, I don't know. So that's a weird question to ask me. Are junk food always, is junk food always going to be a problem?

Yes. Yeah, because isn't it like engineer to like make you feel good and keep it? It's addictive, right? Right. Isn't sugar addictive? Right. All right. Did you read the Stanley Drucken Miller piece of FT? Mm-mm.

I saw the headlines. Yeah. So also I subscribe with the FT to read this piece so I didn't have to steal it from. Do you have a one for that? I support all of the. financial subscriptions, as well as multiple substackers, because I feel like they're giving and, you know, I want to, I want to give back. All right. So I think Drucken Miller is the most honest portfolio manager there is. Like he, I love it that he admits mistakes. Like,

there's a lot of people out there who just will say something crazy and outlandish and then move on and pretend like they didn't say it. But he, he says crazy and outlandish stuff occasionally. Like, this is the worst setup for stocks ever seen. But then if he's wrong, months later, he goes, you know what? That's on me. Hand up. I was wrong. So he says he missed the dollar rally, which I guess this is the kind of stuff he trades as currencies, because I could not bring myself to buy Joe Biden and Jerome J. Powell. It was probably the biggest miss of my career. And he's talking about, because he always is giving Fed takes and economy takes and how, and I just, I'm just kind of appreciative of a fact that he says, listen, I allowed like politics to get into

my process. But the funny thing is, like, I think you talk about in your book, what is he has that one line where he's like, what did I learn here? Nothing. Right? From the tech boom or whatever. Like he does this stuff and then he admits it, but then he can, I don't think, I don't think you can turn off that politic mind or whatever, because that's the way he's wired. But I just appreciate the fact that he says, you know what, I was wrong here. You know, while we're in self-reflection mode, I feel like I'm very low energy right now. I don't know if that's coming through. Do you feel my low energy? Shawnee, you're not in your head? Are you a little hungover from the last few days? I'm not, I haven't been sleeping well. I'm like, I'm a

I'm an above average sleeper. I might be the best that I know. My head hits the pillow. That doesn't surprise me at all. That I'm a great sleeper. Yes. My head hits the pillow and I'm out in 60 seconds. I'm usually like that too.

But for whatever reason, the last two nights I've seen the clock at three o'clock, which is highly unusual. I sleep better on my own bed. Do I miss my family? That could be it. You know, I remember, I actually did miss my family. And I was thinking about this last night while I was, rolling. Duncan says you need to get Michael Mamie Vice stat. We tried to get

him here. They don't have the blenders. I was rolling at 2 o'clock. I remember when I first started at the insurance agency I don't know why this stuff with me, but it really did. This guy that I was working with for, I guess, who was sort of my sales manager, had three young kids. And I guess at the time, I'm like 24 and he was probably 40. And he was telling me about going, that he has to go in. He's like, I hate going away. I miss my kids so much.

I was thinking, like, loser. No, I'm there, too. I had this exact conversation with someone yesterday who has kids at the same age as mine, you know, six to ten range. And my six-year-old daughter, like, lost it when I left. And it is, I'm already, because I hear from parents with older kids, because parents who have kids old and you always tell you what's coming next, this is the worst age.

Oh, that's the worst age. And then just wait because when they become teenagers, they're not going to hang out with you anymore. And we're at the stage now where my kids, like, want to hang out with me. And I'm already, like, nostalgic for this period, and it's not even over yet. Yeah. Because I know it's coming a day when they're going to, Dad, you're a loser. I want to hang out my friends instead. But now they want to, like, hang out with me, and they want me to watch their sports and their games.

And yes, that's the stage I'm at, too. It's tough. But we, we, we shorten our trip. We keep our trip's pretty short. Yeah. All right. This was a good one from Carl Kintini again. This is from Apollo.

None of the indicators the Enber Recession Committee normally looks at suggests that we are recession at the moment. But it's coming. Okay, so this is the people will always hit us with. Well, we had two periods in a row of contracting that National Bureau of Economic Research, we've covered this

before, they're the ones who calls it. I don't know who gave them the title or the billing to do this, but they do. And there's nothing showing a recession, which I think one of us said a couple weeks ago, that there's no signs that we're in a session right now. You can say it's coming, but right now, there are no

signs of recession. This was a good one, I think I kind of asked this a couple weeks ago. If people are still spending so much money, why isn't like credit card debt off the charts? Why is it still just back on trend? What is filling the gap for people spending so much money on stuff and trips? And the financial times at another one, this is from Goldman Sachs. Wait, so what is it? So they set, so look at the real personal consumption. Scroll down to this chart here. It's like off the charts. Like pre-trend, the 2002 to 2016 trend or the 2017 to 2019 trend, personal consumption on goods is just way off trend.

So they basically said the reason is consumers are broadly spending no more than what they're earning. After stripping out certain misleading imputed costs, Goldman Sachs finds that nominal spending has risen by $3.5 trillion and nominal income by $3.3 trillion. So they're saying that the rise in wages has made up for the increase in spending. and the whole thing is that the people on the bottom end who've gotten the biggest raises spend the most money

but they've seen a commensurate rise in income with the spending. But this is inflation adjusted. This is inflation adjusted. Yes. So I don't get it. If you're saying that the rise in prices was offset by their rising wages.

This is not prices. This is spending. So the rise in spending has been met by the rise in income. I don't know, man. I was up until 3 in the morning. It was making my head hurt. it's it's interesting it's like how how is this spending so off the charts because people are

making much more money and the people who are making more money are the ones who spend it right well the lower the lower court but i mean also but obviously like the fiscal stimulus yes yeah so that that's part of the income but that but that gave the boost but why isn't it why has it not returned to trend because people's wages aren't falling now right that we're at like a new permanent plateau of spending i don't know but didn't we say that real wages had fallen behind inflation for like 16 straight months? True. This is just good spending.

So maybe the service thing is the component there. Got it. I guess. Right? Kelly Cox from E. Toro broke GDP down by component. Consumer spending was the biggest boost to growth. Right? So people are still spending money.

Here's another one. David Beckworth. U.S. nominal GDP looking at the pre-pandemic trend. And look at, obviously, this is not adjusting for inflation, but look at how much nominal GDP has risen. especially considering the fact that it was so much below trend for the 2020 period, I think people just have a lot more money. I think that's it.

It's as simple as that. I feel like we've been having the same conversation for a long time. People are waiting for something to happen. We're kind of in the middle part of the whatever, right? The market is like purgatory? Where are we right now? The purgatory market? Sure.

I'll buy that. Another one from Apollo. Las Vegas. The occupants, it's a charge down. Las Vegas occupancy rate. The occupancy rate for hotels in Las Vegas is not showing signs of weakness in consumer services. All right. Here's something that is different. Remember when there was that period, this is a supply chain stuff. Maybe I took out a week too early. Remember one, it was like we couldn't find enough truck drivers to move all the stuff around the country. People

are complaining like, we got to fill every truck up because this is precious cargo and the supply chain stuff. The Wall Street Journal has something saying trucking demand is just fallen off a cliff. this is an independent trucker in the piece. She says rates she can charge for hauling cargo from dog food to pillows have in some cases fallen faster than the fuel cost. And the low demand for freight has meant fewer diesel-hungry semi-trailers on the road, pushing some fellow truckers to sell their vehicles. Chief economists of a trucker's association said that trucking companies with fleets ranging from 2 to 300 vehicles failing at a rate of 1 per week. Not good. So it's just kind of crazy how that was the thing.

Remember we were figuring out, like, how do we speed up the ports? How do we speed up the trucks? And that's just gone now, I guess. Here's one. Sorry, I wasn't listening. Okay. There was a talk at the conference about being a good, what, active listener? An empathetic listener.

And you went up to the guy after the talk and said, yeah, I don't do that. I'm not a good listener. Which at least you admitted it. Yes. Yeah, at least you admit it. You're kind of like drunk. You know you're wrong. You at least admit it.

No, I wish I was a better listener. I think, you know what? I'm not even going to say what I think because people already have enough opinions of me on the YouTube comments. So maybe I'm just going to keep that one close to the vest. When's the last time you checked the YouTube comments? Last week. Okay. You did?

Not good. No, no. Okay. I don't want to mix it up in there. All right. Another one from the Wall Street Journal, been really getting a lot of miles out of that subscription lately. They had one on U.S. construction spending. And this is not what you'd expect in a slowdown.

It's booming all-time highs. So they break it out between residential and non-residential. Yes. And it looks up only. I mean, residential, that's not, in fairness, residential is coming quite a bit. A little bit. It's still much higher than it was before. But look at this next chart.

Home renovation and repair spending. This is the four-quarter average. That had to fall. And don't you think a lot of... But look, but look what happened here. Yeah, it went crazy. And this would have to fall more, I would think, because home equity lines of credit are 7% now, 8%. So, okay, just prior to the pandemic, this was $325 billion.

It shot up to almost 500, and now it's at, like, $4.50. So from 325, even coming off the highs, we're still at $4.25. That was a massive, massive increase. The next one, U.S. construction employment. This one is crazy to me that... Construction employment is just blew through all-time highs, and it's, I don't know, rolling over a little bit if we're doing technical analysis here,

but it's still pretty darn high. Did you know that a record... So they talk about, like, U.S. manufacturing a lot coming down, and I'm sure that narrative is partially maybe true. I don't know. A record of $108 billion was spent building factories last year? That's a lot. I do see...

A record? How many those are Amazon factories? Is that a factory or warehouse? I guess that's different. Warehouse, I guess. Okay. I think we spoke about home builders last week. Here's a quote from this CEO of Pulte

talking about why new construction is in such a bull market. He's talking about new buyers, so first-time buyers. They don't have a home to sell, and so they are not hampered by the low interest rate. Ah, okay. That makes sense. It does seem like the only game in town right now. Because my friend, I have a friend who, like, for various reasons, is looking to move. And he really can't.

It's just impossible to justify going from three and a half to six. I said yesterday at lunch to someone, some bank is going to step up to the plate and say, we're going to allow you to port that mortgage. You're going to take this 3% mortgage that you have here. And what? Just do origination fees? And some sort of, yeah, you're going to pay some sort of fee, but you're going to take that 3% from your $300,000 house and move it to a $500,000 house.

and we're going to charge you up a little bit for the feet. Like, I can't believe that bank's not going to do that. If rates continue to stay above 5 or 6 percent. Yeah, maybe. Also, I just want to mention, button down or button up shirt today for you. This is button up. Okay. Twice in the last month or so.

Maybe so button downs would have the... All right. I have to get something off my chest about, I've been in a hotel a couple times last month. The last two hotels I've been at, there's not been an ironing board. There's been a steamer. I'm team steamers. Oh, okay.

Steamers don't. work for shit. They do. They don't. You don't know how to steam. They don't do anything. You don't know how to steam. I need an ironing boards at a hotel. It's like trying to iron to iron on like a gravel road or something, but steamers do not work. All right. In fairness, this is enough. This is a non-wrinkle tree. Steamers don't work. If you have a wrinkle, like, I try. I mean, no, if you have an aggressive wrinkle, yeah, you're going to need an iron. Well, if you pack in a suitcase, you're going to get wrinkles. Steamer doesn't do anything. Learn how to pack. I'm sorry. Steamers are useless.

Duncan, make that ask steamer versus iron. Are you doing this magic mortgage rate level thing? This is a survey from John Burns' research and consulting. More than 70% of prospective homebuyers told the researchers that they were not willing to accept a mortgage rate above 5.5%. And is that like the magic line in the sand. There's no quantitative reason to back that up. But I do feel like if we get into the five, that is a psychological hurdle for people that would. All right.

If I go to three to five, five and a half, that's not terrible. What was your first mortgage rate? Six in a quarter. Six and a half, maybe? I think mine was five and a half. And I'm pretty sure I was, like, thrilled. Being a first-time home buyer, though, I didn't even, like, think about it. It was like, that's what the rates are.

But I was buying in late 2007 as home prices were crashing, and my house price kept going down. It was a new build. They cut the price of it three times before I stepped in and like, okay, this is, it makes sense. But yeah, 6.25 or whatever. And it's just prices were way lower. So it didn't, it didn't sting as bad. And then I got to refinance three times. What do you think, apropos of nothing, this is a hard pivot. What do you think about Louis Vuitton luggage? Because there's always somebody with Louis Vuitton luggage at the airport, right?

True. I guess I've never really given much thought. You're not going to see me with Louis Vuitton luggage. I have an Amazon basics with a compound sticker on it. But I'm not a big pay-up for luggage guy because it always gonna end up with a big scratch because they chuck it in there or something so I don't know why I would want to pay up for luggage

and I'm a unless I'm eating them I don't want to like kill a cow for a bag Is that fair? Sure. What are your thoughts? I don't know. I just, I mean, I feel like I have thought

I don't know. It triggers like so, uh, huh, right? All right, let's go to a great quarter guys. All right. It's been a long time coming. We're very excited about it. this. I'm a paying customer. Do you pay? Did you pay? Did you pay? Of course I did. What do you think? Come on. You paid for quarter? Yeah. I signed up for the, yeah, right when they sent it to us. Desktop.

So, quarter is on desktop now. We've got a promo code for listeners. Which is something they've always wanted to work on, but you and I immediately, like, this has to be a desktop. I need desktop. So the promo code is Animal Spirits, one word. I think you get 20% off. But it's only if you pay for the full year, which I don't know how much is it. I paid for the full yet. I thought the deal was you get 20% off for signing up, and then you get an extra 10% for using animal spirits. Do I have that wrong? I don't know. I mean, you don't listen very well, but put it in and see what you get.

It'll be a grab bag. You get what you get it. You don't get upset. We're investors in quarter. Just a full disclosure there. But, but, but, but, but, so yesterday, yesterday I was, I was here in the hotel, in the, the, the, the bungalow, I guess. and I got a ping on my phone and alert.

J.P. Morgan Chase, M&A announcement, live. Conference call. Boom. Tuned in. That's good. Someone also, someone mentioned, well, I can remember the company, but they said in the first two lines of this report,

we mentioned this and this and this, and I immediately went on to quarter, sent the transcription myself so I could pull that part out of it. Was it for Franklin? Oh, that's it. Yes, Franklin Templeton. So, and they said this is what, and I pulled up quarter,

and I sent myself the transcript, because I wanted to read it. Very cool. It's nice. All right. I guess I want to listen to Spotify. Did you listen to any calls last week? No, I have to say, I've never been a Spotify user.

So it's interesting that you mentioned that. So I was an Overcast guy. I'm a Spotify shareholder. It's not very expensive. But I use Apple music because I have all the Apple stuff. Okay. So I use Amazon music, but I'm pretty sure that either with Amazon or with Spotify, you can only do like five fast forwards in an hour. So it's almost Jetsky season. So I listen to 90s alternative tunes on my Jetsky. Offspring, for example, bands like that. Really? Okay. I go, I dial it back to the 90s. I turn it back. But you can only, so anyway, so I did, I ended up paying for Spotify. So now I'm going to be unlimited. But anyway, the point is that, look at these charts.

I mean, just the monthly average active users up into the right. It's mostly still premium subscribers. The ad supported margins, it's just, it's such, ads are just a tough business. Yes. And that's probably in a very market right now. Well, look at this next chart. So they show gross profit by segment and gross margin by segment. And it's basically, the ad is like just the tip.

So they were asked a few times about AI. and copying artists. And I can't remember what they said. I think it was probably along the lines. I'm like, listen, super early, fluid situation, moving fast. Everyone seems to be on board that this AI stuff is like. That seems like eventually there has to be some sort of deal reached where there's a, there's a specific way to do it.

And there's a revenue share there. If you create it, then you pay whatever the number is. You know what? There's a be bold market and lawyers. Yeah. Right? Because if you are trying to monetize off of somebody else's brand, like that's, that's going to be, that's not going to be a thing.

I would bet on Taylor Swift over AI, Taylor Swift. Like, she be the one that would be able to handle this, I would assume. You mentioned Chipotle earlier at an all-time high. They are just crushing it with price increases, I guess. Total revenue, up 17% year-over-year. Comp sales, credit to them, up 11%. That's a lot. That is a lot.

In-reston sales increased 23% digital sales represented 40%. the food and beverage revenue. They did this all without Michael Baddick eating there anymore. Credit to them. So a lot of this was, yeah, no, I got Tripoli one time last quarter after a nick game. I thought you think about your life in terms of quarters, too. Like it's a... But, no, but the business boomings, not just price increases, although that's obviously a certain part of it.

So there was... So I went to the Nick game on Sunday afternoon, and there's a lot of kids in the crowd on a Sunday afternoon. and I am a welcoming home fan for away fans. I don't give them a hard time. I don't, I'm not a heckler. I'm not a jerk. You know? What do you mean?

What are you? I'm just, yeah. So, but there was a guy five rows behind us who was such a jerk. He was heckling the whole crowd. That's a gutsy thing to do if you're an away fan. Yeah, he was just, it wasn't funny. every single time that the Knicks fouled the heat, he would scream play by the rules.

Every single time. That's kind of weird because it's not really breaking the rules. You're following the rule. They just called a foul on it. Yeah, no, that's the rulebook. The rules are a foul. Yeah, it's called. It's not illegal.

One time, we got an N1, and he said something, and I just turned around and I said, I don't know, I screamed something at him. I think I might have cursed. I just I there was a line that he went too far and I just couldn't help myself and there was a guy behind me with his like four year old five year old son and I said up sorry that's on me and he goes it's okay and I'm a huge fan of your work see this is why the show beef is seems so realistic to me about people reaching their and I don't know it does seem like since a pandemic people have that breaking point where they're just they're willing to just lose it I'm not a yeller I don't yell at people like But that's why that show beef resonated.

I didn't finish it yet, but just losing it and reaching your breaking point, I feel like people get to that way sooner now than they used to. I mean, I gave this guy like two quarters. He had just some nerve. Hutzpah, if you will. All right, this is kind of nuts from Amazon. I did not listen to the call, but revenue from ads products grew 21% in the first quarter from the same time last year to $9.5 billion, which is a lot of money.

their ads are now growing fast than AWS. AWS is about twice as large, but from Axios, Amazon's share is expected to grow to 12.5% this year, up from 11.7% in 2022. Amazon seems like the most natural ad platform. Makes sense. It's like, yeah, it's like Google. You put something in and the first one's an ad and the second one is...

Oh, look. The stock is acting like pretty trashy. Until Bezos comes back. Now we're talking. Right? It's up on the day. Now we're talking. Anyway, check out.

Oh, one more thing. One more thing. We spoke about this last week or two weeks ago about the AMEX call about how much millennials are spending. But I just want to read from the call. We acquired 3.4 million new cards during the quarter. Demand for millennial and Gen Z consumers continue to fuel its growth, account it for more than 60% of all new consumer account acquisitions in the quarter. Millennial and Gen Zee customers also continue to be our fastest growing U.S.

cohort in terms of spending, growing 28% from a year earlier. I'm sorry that this upsets people. Things are okay. Things are always scary. Yeah. Right? I'm not saying things will always be okay. But a lot of the angst that we rightly felt over the last 18 to 24 months,

has not come to fruition yet. And it's always yet, yet, yet. I get them. Just wait. Just wait. I know. But like if we just pause and just reflect on where we came from and what things are compared to what things could have been, not bad.

People are still outspending money, right? Not bad. Here's a not good one. This is from CNBC. I think this is from Sean, share of total net worth held by the top 1% in the U.S. We talk about this in the pandemic and we said, unfortunately, the pandemic is going to make any quality worse, and it appears it has. This was 25% and the top 1% of net worth in the early 2000s. Now it's up to more than 30, just roughly 32% or so. Not a great trend.

And I don't really know what, unless you just increase taxes on the wealthy to an unbelievable level, I don't know what stops this. Because it's not like all of a sudden the stock market is going to hinder them. The top 1% if it gets to 50%. 40? I don't really want to talk about this. I know.

It's not good. Here's something for you on, so the stock market is down one to 2%. Bitcoin's up 2% today. Is this a, are people looking at it again as an anti-system play? I mean, for today it is. This is one day.

Gold is also up 2%. So I think, I mean, this bank stuff, I'm not trying to minimize this. This is, you know, this is not, this is concerning.

I'd minimize it. I think it's, I don't think it's a thing. I think it's a thing, again, maybe down the road, but the Fed and the FDIC and, when you say you don't think it's a thing, so. I don't think it's like a systemic, regional banks are out of 50, two weeks low, they're down 7% today. So are you saying it's a stock market thing? It's not a real world thing? I think if you're a regional bank shareholder, you should be concerned because I think we talked, like the concentration is just going to get bigger. JP Morgan and all these big banks are going to get bigger.

I think that's, maybe that's a slow realization is like, I don't know, maybe it doesn't make sense. So I did see someone on Twitter. What to have so many banks? Yeah, I think someone on Twitter also said, like, maybe we shouldn't let anyone in California have a bank. Like, I kind of like that one. I just think the big ones are going to continue to get bigger in it, and whether that's people finally getting over the inertia of moving their accounts. But don't you think all the biggest business accounts now are going to say, what matters

more to me, like having the best rates or feeling the safe. with my money. And I think people are going to come to the realization of, yeah, I get worse rates there, but I feel I don't have to worry about it. I don't know. This whole, like, how do people feel about banking is a very, I don't know how to comment on how people in the country feel about their local bank. I mean, obviously people that pay attention to our podcasts are probably more concerned about their bank than non-financially, uh, centric people. Just normal people. Like, I don't know if normal people are concerned about their regional bank. But is the stock market powerful enough to put all these banks into trouble to the point of, okay,

the equity is effectively worthless. Like, this bank has to be moved somewhere else or someone else has to take them over, whatever it is. I just think the consolidation thing, that's going to be the story for a while now. Well, so the consolidation thing, how does that immediately impact consumers? Or depositors, I should say. That's the thing. I don't think depositors are going to be impacted. I think it's going to be more of the shuffling of owners. Oh, they will be impacted. Whether it's worse customer service, higher rates, harder access to credit, they will be impacted. Okay. Yeah, that's true. Just the banks, yeah, worse yields. Or if the banks continue But are we realizing that these banks are offering unbelievable rates to get new customers?

No, I'm not talking about, forget about the California banks. If the regional banks get taken over and they still, they still stay where they are under a different banner, maybe it's not so bad. I don't know. I don't know. It's bad for the equity. Netflix is still the king. I bought more stock, by the way, for what it's worth. Netflix accounts for between 7 and 8% of TV viewing every month. No other service besides YouTube tops 4%. People spend more time watching Netflix. This is from Lucas Shaw at Bloomberg. People spend more time watching Netflix every month than Hulu, Disney, plus, and APGO, Max combined. That's nuts, no? That is a lot. nuts. It's, you mentioned how beef is higher quality. I, sorry, last thing, Netflix accounts for

between 80% of the top 10 most watched shows in the U.S. every week. That's wild. All right. So someone, someone told us, watch the diplomat. I watched, my wife and I were watching the recruit on Netflix, which is a CIA one. I put on, I watched one episode of Diplomat last night after we, I got back to my room, wasn't quite ready to go to bed yet. It was good. They're, they're like, they're both entertaining shows, but they don't feel as weighty as like an HBO show. Like, it's, it's more like, it's just kind of like... The stakes are lower. The lower stakes.

That's what if it's like, they're entertaining, but the stakes don't feel as high. Like, when I'm watching Succession, it feels like there's high stakes at that. There's, well, there's HBO quality, and then there's more or less, I mean, Apple's got some good stuff. I'm a diversified TV viewer, though. I like having both options. Sometimes I don't need to be, like, so keyed in, and I just... Totally. I'm very, not very, I'm a little excited for The Citadel on Amazon Prime.

I don't know what that one is. Okay. It looks like CIA espionage, maybe. I don't know, action. Okay. All right. The espionage guy. All right.

Oh, I got, I went to a, I got a, we're getting to random thoughts here. Went to a stand-up show on Friday in Grand Rapids. They stand-up in Grand Rapids? It's a surprise, right? A place is called Dr. Grins, right? The laugh factory, those places all have weird names. But there was, the guy, Chad Daniels is the guy as Amy's a midway. Western comedian. I never heard of my brother-in-law and my sister are big fans of his.

He was funny. And he says, listen, here's the center line for politics. I'm one step to the left of this line. But now what I'm going to do is I'm going to make fun of this side over here and this side. And he did. And when he made front of this side, people got really quiet and mad. And it was funny. But watching people who at a stand-up comedy show, you mentioned before hiring, like, I think before we hire someone, we need to take them out for a drink or go out for dinner or something like get to really know the person. I feel like another test on that realm would be taking someone to a stand-up show and seeing if they laugh. Like there's people at a stand-up show with their arms folded, not laughing. And that's fine if the person's not funny. But

I see people like that and I think, I wouldn't want to hang out that person who can't laugh or laugh at themselves or they're, anyway. That's a good observation. Did you see the new Malini stand-up special? No, I didn't watch it yet. Good? I have not watched it either, but I'm going to. Okay. The other thing I realize is that they had the MC, the opener, and the headliner, right? It's funny to notice the difference because you think this person's funny. They're funny. The MC, like, set up a joke and then botched the landing of the plane. He messed up how he said it. And then he tried to come back to it, but you could tell. He missed it. Same thing with the opener. He set up this joke. And he said, wait a minute. And he kind of backtrack. He said, wait a minute. Yeah, you could tell.

He, like, in his head, he's like, I mess up the words. And then the guy who was a headliner didn't miss a beat on anything. And he nailed every line, every punchline, you know, just, and it's interesting just to see the difference. But just, like, misplacing two words here or there can totally ruin a joke. And the person who's an actual pro has been doing this for so long, like, never misses that. It's interesting to. I saw a Norm clip with Seinfeld, the comedies and cars. and it was like the

Cosby hypocrisy line do you know what I'm talking about I don't remember but just anyway your point about professional comedians versus everyone else

huge gap you could just see it on display it's really it's like NBA versus like middle school yes and even when he was like riffing

that you could hear you know when a car goes by the loud stereo you can hear it like you could hear it through the walls of this comedy place and it's like

boom and the guy goes in the middle of a joke he goes wait we all just witnessed the coolest guy in the entire world just drive by

Like, even his, like, riffing stuff was good. Okay. I don't have made very much for recommendations this week. I mentioned the recruit and a diplomat. I'll keep going to the diplomat. It was, it was okay. Duplicity on stars. Excuse me?

Julia Roberts, Clive Owen. You appreciate this because the... What happened to Clive Owen? He was good. This might be the last good Julia Roberts movie. She might be in the Tom Hanks realm of when's her last really good movie. It's kind of like a... You pay for stars?

It's with my cable package. Okay. Yeah, I'm still getting cable. Trust me. It's in my bundle. 2009. Ooh, March 20th, right near the bottom. It's about, it's like a con artist,

espionage kind of, corporate espionage kind of thing. Not a bad movie. Good, good cast, too. Paul Giamatti's in it. The audience gave it a 37. Really? I remember people not liking it. I enjoyed it.

It's got a good, like, little twist ending, and it's also about finding a cure for baldness. Okay, you know what? I'm in on Clive Owen. Very in on Clive Owen. I like that. I don't know where he is now, but come back to us. I thought it was an underrated,

not like a great movie, but underrated movie. All right, what do I have got? So Josh and I had D.K. Metcalfe on the podcast last week. It's on YouTube if you want to watch or podcast if you want to listen. And he mentioned something about movies. And I had to open that door. And I said, what movies do you like to go see? And he said, I go see horror movies by myself.

And I was just like, my man. Kind of spirit spirits. I gave him a pound. And Joe, his advisor, sent me that picture. And he said, he called this like horror freaks or something like that. So I said, I emailed him. I said, tell D.K. That I saw Evil Dead this weekend with a bunch of 16 year olds.

Is that what it is? You're just in horror movies? Younger. I guess that makes sense. It's always teenagers. So I was genuinely, like, frightened to go see Evil Dead because the trailer looks... I think it's funny with all the horror movies you've seen

that you still get worked up or scared about them. How are you not just like even-handed and like I've seen everything? Well, because I get scared. I mean, I do this sometimes. I do. I get scared. But Evil Dead was, it was good. It was not, it was not, it was scary, but not as terrifying as I feared.

So it was a by the rumor or sell the news type thing. But it was a good movie, fun movie. All right, here's some notes I've got. So I'm listening to a podcast with Adam Neiman and Sean Fentasy on The Big Picture. They're talking about Bo is Afraid. Is that the name of the movie? What? Bo is Afraid?

I never heard of that one. Okay. So Bo As Afraid is a movie by the guy who directed Mitzamar and Hereditary. Okay. Another. Sean, top 10? Top 15. Top 15.

I like both of those movies quite a bit. I don't know if I'm going to see Bowes Afraid. In fact, about this, I'm not seeing Bowes Afraid. It's three hours. I'm not doing it. But I loved, I really enjoyed listening to them talk about the movie, such as the power of podcasts, that I listen to these guys for an hour, talk about a movie that I have no interest in seeing. It felt like you didn't need to see it, probably, right? What's that?

Probably felt like you didn't need to see it because they explained it all. Yeah, I probably will watch it eventually. I'm not going to go see it in the theater, but win for podcasts. All right. What was I watching on the airplane? Scent of a Woman. I don't know if that's Philip Sumer Hoffman's first role, but you could already tell, like, that he was going to be throwing 95 miles an hour. He had a bunch of good side gigs in the 90s. So, Sent of a Woman is Al Pacino won for Best Actor. It's about 90 minutes too long.

It's actually a perfect airplane movie because it's like two hours and 40 minutes or something. There's no reason for it. whatsoever. It's ridiculous. You're not going to watch it on the couch. But Al Pacino deservedly won the Oscar for it. And it's got the ultimate that guy in that movie, James Rebhorn. I see the dad from Meet the Parents? The in-law's dad? Right? It was a big shot. Yeah, I like that guy. Right? He is the ultimate that guy. So I'm glad that I watch that. That's been on my list for like, you know, my grandpa liked that movie. Poppy is what I called him. That's how old that movie was. Yeah. It's been a long time since I saw

I loved. It's not worth revisiting, but Pacino was incredible. Okay. I watched Reservoir Dogs, a movie that I've probably seen, I've seen a lot of times, maybe 10, maybe more. And I was just, this sort of blew my mind. So there's a, there's a scene with Bouchemey and Harvey Keitel, where they're just going back and forth where Tim Roth is on the ground bleeding out and they're like, who's the

rat? It's just incredible, it is just incredible, incredible. So I don't know when Reservoir Dogs came out, 96? Well, Pulp Fiction was 94. 92. So I think that was... The Reservoir Dogs was before Pulp Fiction. I think it was Tarantino's first movie.

Like, first movie that he directed. I'm not 100% positive, but I think so. Anyway, Harvey Keitel and Al Pacino are both 83 years old. Really? And Jack, who was at the Lakers game, came out, is 86. And this is how old Reservoir Dogs is. Do you know when Chris Penn died? Take a guess.

I didn't know he was dead. You didn't know what Chris Penn died? I guess I... Dude, 2006. Trying to say we're old? Yeah. Okay. I remember that.

I remember that very well. Be like, oh, shit. Because he was a young man when he died. 2006. I was, oh, my God, it was 17 years ago. We're old. I'm tired. All right.

I miss my kids. Let's call it. animal spirits pot at gmail.com and we'll listen I will step I will I'll be back in form next week I'll be back Maybe it's because you have the button down shirt on I'm just not myself slowed you down

Animal Sparrettspot at gmail.com We'll see you next time