Animal Spirits Podcast - Buy the Porsche (EP. 426)

Episode Date: August 20, 2025

On episode 426 of Animal Spirits, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ben Carlson⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ discuss why the stock market is getting boring, S&P 493 vs. the Mag 7, are small caps dead, it's tough being a contrarian, healthcare stocks are cheap, the K-shaped food industry, the tariff impact is coming, renting vs. buying, million dollar houses and more. This episode is sponsored by YCharts. Visit https://go.ycharts.com/animal-spirits and Get 20% off your initial YCharts Professional subscription when you start your free YCharts trial through Animal Spirits (new customers only). Sign up for The Compound newsletter and never miss out: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠thecompoundnews.com/subscribe⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Find complete show notes on our blogs: Ben Carlson’s ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠A Wealth of Common Sense⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Michael Batnick’s ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Irrelevant Investor⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Feel free to shoot us an email at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[e-mail]⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.   Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Get 20% off your initial Y-Charts professional subscription. When you start your free Y-charts trial through Animal Spirits. Again, this is for new customers only. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ridholt's wealth management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should

not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ridholt's Wealth management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Welcome to Animal Sproats with Michael and Ben. Ben, I had a realization on Thursday when I was recording with Shannon and Todd. Now, maybe this is because I'm doing three podcasts a week talking about the markets, but I think it has more to do with the market itself. And certainly a lack of news. Like, the market's been fairly boring this summer, right?

It's been like a slow, steady grind higher. People are trying to make stuff stick, but it's not, no, there's nothing happening. There's nothing happening. So largely a function of that, but also of the market itself. All right, what am I talking about? I'm blabbering. Say it already. Speak.

I feel like we're saying the same shit for a long time. And I'm getting bored. And I suspect the listeners might be getting bored. I don't know what to tell you. But I kind of wish that we could fast forward and just like check back in three years. Like, we just take like a three-year hiatus, come back and just see what happened. And in particular, I'm talking, I'm talking mostly about the stock market because we know. We know.

It's all, it's all riding on AI. Is it going to deliver? Is it going to disappoint? How much? And then, of course, there's the real estate thing, which we've been talking about. It's the same fucking stories every freaking week. So I had not to like take a victory of that. here, but someone tagged me in an old tweet of mine from 2021. And I said, people keep calling

for a housing market crash or a housing market bubble. And I feel like in five or 10 years, they're still going to be saying that same thing. And that was my take back then. And it sure does, that, that is the stock market too, that you're right. We've, we've been having this discussion every year for seven or eight years now. And so, but it's really, but, but, but it's like, I feel like it's just relentless. It's so much more than it ever has been because what else is there to talk about? Invidia is $4 trillion.

On Thursday, we were talking with Todd and he has this great chart showing Nvidia and Microsoft together are about to be worth more than all the healthcare stocks, all the utilities, all the staples, and all the energy stocks. And it's like, all right, get on with it already. You know, I just, I want to see what happens.

I want to see the resolution to this. Are you just hoping for a new cycle? I'm not hoping for anything. I just until something happens and I don't know what I'm waiting for. It's just, and I certainly listen, I don't want to be, I definitely don't want to be the guy who is telling people to relax and sober up. I don't want to be like the dude at the party who's like, bro, you're, you're really drunk. You know, like maybe slow down and stop drinking. Like, I don't want to be that guy.

It's annoying. Go be the, yeah, we had a guy in college who used always say, hey, have you guys ever thought of drinking in moderation before? Yeah, shut up, dork. Okay, so. But I also do feel like this is, and I don't know why I'm just sort of feeling this feelings, but that whole like new generation of investors, I feel like I'm only first now, like, yeah, this really is a new generation of investors. And I'm not saying that like, this is going to end badly and wagging my finger at them.

But there, you know, there's a lot of, there's a lot of shit. Sam Altman got quoted in a story last week and he said when bubbles happen, smart people get over-excited about a kernel of truth. Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are over-excited about AI? My opinion is yes. Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes. I feel like though this is the kind of thing that he has to say. Because people now, one of the things that I feel for young people on is the fact that they have camera phones and videos in their faces all the time and they probably have to act a certain way because they're worried people are going to videotape them or something, right?

Or put them on something, call them out. And so I feel like the same thing with CEOs sometimes where they have to say, they know the stuff that they have to say so they don't look like an idiot in the future. So of course he has to say that, but I don't know. What does he really believe? He doesn't have to say anything. I mean, look what Elon says on his conference calls. Listen to what Alex calls.

Well, but no one wants to be a cheerleader in a dot-com bubble, like and be, have it thrown in their face like Henry Blodgett every year for the rest of their career, right? Like, you were cheering the dot-com bubble, but secretly you were, no one wants that. I just told you, Elon and Karp, and they're not, I mean, I'm sure we could think of a lot of others that are very much galvanizing their shareholder base. Okay. But what do you, what do you think about his statements, though? Like, that, that is the, that has to be the baseline opinion right now.

Oh, yeah, yeah. To me, that's very fair. And I read a Howard Mark's memo, which, it's been a minute since I read one of those. But it was, it was great as I always are. Like, what do you? So what? Right? Like, we know.

None of this is, none of this is, are, none of these talking parts are new insights. Let's get it over. But the weird thing is, though, that like, there might not be a get over it thing because some of these stocks could crash, but then AI still could transform the world. And then you get like a little bit of both for everyone wins. The most hilarious outcome would be if we do get, I'm, a crash wouldn't be hilarious. But if we do get like maybe a lost five years for NVIDIA, which seems fairly reasonable, about $4 trillion.

Maybe you can go to $10, why not? But if we do actually get the efficiency gains and the productivity gains in the rest of the world and margins of the market go from 11 to 13 to 16 to 17 and it's just a baton handing off to the 493, not inconceivable. Anyway, the point that I was, the reason why I brought up Howard Marks is he did this whole thing. And he's like, all right, well, so what? Like, what do you do? What's the conclusion here? And he had, like, five things that you could do all the way from get defensive to short the market. And he's like, this seems sensible. This seems ridiculous. Like, do not short a bull market ever.

If we're using the dot-com analog, because it's just, you know, it's easy. What if this is in 1996? Who's to say? So the New York Times had a story. And the headline is scarier than the actual meat of the article, which is typically true. I written for a couple of financial publications, Bloomberg and Fortune. And if you were a writer, I would always give them an idea what I want the headline to be, and they would never take it, of course. Like, they always make up, but it says the stock market is getting scary. Here's what you should do.

It's Burton Malkiel, actually. Still going strong. We interviewed him a couple years ago, and he's in his 90s, I think. Right? He's been going strong for a while. But he was like, listen, the valuations seem high. AI is everyone's getting overly excited. What do you do?

He's like, I don't know. Can you time the market? No. So maybe just relax and just, you know. Yeah. I mean, that's my default. You asked about the most hilarious outcome. I still think the most hilarious outcome is we create AGI, right?

And we create this super computer being as smarter than all of us. And it just, like her, it just says, I don't want you guys anymore. Scram. I'm keeping it all to myself. Leave me alone. And then we're stuck with nothing. Yeah, that would. How's that?

Yeah. No. Okay. Let's talk about the actual stock market. What did you put in here? All right. I can't take revenue. So you put out a, wait, you put out a take, I think to me and Josh on Slack a couple weeks

ago, or last weekend, people were saying, like, why is the stock market going up? And what was your, you gave like four bullet points about, okay, tariff on certainty is behind us. Earnings are coming in strong. Inflation is okay. And the Fed's about the cut. Like, if you just looked at it through that lens, this is why the stock market is still booming. Yeah, that's the case I made on Thursday. What do you, what do you, if you just knew that, what would you expect?

stock market to do. Right. You think it would be, it would be in a bare market. Why? Because there are some shenanigans going on, because there's some things that you don't like that are happening. And in particular, we are in earning season. And also, I should, I should, I should, not that everybody doesn't necessarily know this. It's not as if the stock market is going straight up. It's not like, it's, we're going up. I mean, yes, we're going, we're sort of going nowhere fast. It feels like it, though. I mean, like, we are at all time highs, but it's, and yes, we have had a ridiculous move off of the April lows. But in recent weeks,

we're going sideways. We're at all time I'm going, but we're going sideways. So I don't want to be all this sterical. Like, oh, we're going straight. We're not going straight up. But we are an earning season. We're wrapping it up.

And people got too bearish. People were way off sides. Analyst in particular. And not just them, everyone, really. All right. So Kevin Gordon tweeted for the second quarter, S&P 500 earning beat rates above 80%. Revenue beat rate

right under 80%. And the earnings beat rate, the band, like the range is not that wide because earnings are fairly predictable quarter to quarter, right? Not like that much, you don't get shocked quarter to quarter on the earnings, but revenue could be all over the place. And you can't fake revenue and companies smashed revenue expectations.

You also can't fake cash flows. So this is from the Wall Street Journal. American companies are buying their own stocks at a record pace. Buybacks are expected at the top of $1.1 trillion in 2025. So, let's see. That's the highest on record, obviously. And they show completed and announced. And it's funny, a lot of times you think these CEOs, like, they can backtrack on

buybacks if they want. Like dividends, they, when they say they're going to just pay a dividend, they pay it. But the actual, like, announced versus completed is closer than you think. Like, companies, this is part of their thing now. And they show the largest buybacks, and it's Apple is. the biggest one at $100 billion. JP Morgan's up there. It's all the biggest names. But this is from Sherwood. This is really interesting.

Apple has bought back billions of shares in the last 12 years. Their shares outstanding have dropped 44% since the mid-2010s. It's kind of nuts. But it also tells you how mature of a company that they are. And so I wonder how many people would say, okay, great, maybe use that money to buy some AI company instead. Like, it's time to do a deal. you've been paper bearishine apple for a while yeah okay good one from exhibit a chart of the

week s mp 500 versus the 493 versus the mag 7 in 2025 it is kind of crazy that the market's up 10% this year essentially so i mean we're on track for another 20% year right the average up year stock market is up we are it's up 10% that well you're not on track for anything we have we have we have you know several months left When the stock market is up in a given year, it's up an average of 21%. When it's down, it's down an average of 13%. History says we're likely to see an up 20% year again, where we are. Could be.

Who knows? But this is kind of crazy that a Mag 7 was getting smoked through April and now is outperforming again. It was down 25%ish. This has been a hell of a year. I also feel like... just getting back to the comments I made earlier, like this post-COVID world that we're living in, does it still feel like a dream to you?

It doesn't feel like real life. I feel like I'm still. Yeah, there are definitely parts of it that are, the information age totally screws up your perception of reality, I think. I have a take later about how screwed up we are. I'll save it. This is interesting, though. Josh was talking about this yesterday, and I had to look it up.

From the bottom, I looked at the Russell 2000, VTI, which is the total market, and then the EFA, to see how markets have performed since the bottom in April, right before that big, like, up 10% day, whatever. And all the gains are essentially the same. They're all up 27, 28%-ish and follow each other pretty darn closely. International stocks, small caps, and the Russell 3,000. And that's why these, like, exogenous events are so weird, just like COVID and just like Liberation Day that, Everything just kind of goes down and then everything comes back up. And it's almost like a, like, you know, the yield curve never shifts one to one,

like the different parts of the yield curve move differently. But with a stock market, when you have these types of event-led crashes, they tend to like fall and rise at the same magnitude. It's bizarre. Yeah. It's just like, it was a, look, it was a total re-rating. And then that re-rating got unrated, I guess you could say. Yeah.

All right. So another one from Exhibit A. Remember, check out Exhibit A.com for advice. Did you do your webinar yet? No, it's ExhibitA for Advice.com. What did I say? Exhibit A4advice.com. Okay.

Exhibit A4advice.com. Yeah, we did. We did the webinars. Weren't great. Okay. So this one is good because I've seen for years people talking about small caps are dead. Amazon went public at $400 million and that doesn't happen anymore. Company is saying private longer.

Small caps are dead. And this chart shows the cycles of small and large cap outperformance. Now, sometimes these things totally, totally flip. But I don't think looking at this chart would have you, would lead you to believe, yeah, this is, it's it. It's over. Small caps are dead. I don't believe that. I think the, I still think, like, look at how long the cycle of outperformance was for small caps. It was a very long time following the dot-com bubble. I do think, though, is it more brave to say that this is permanent? I feel like it's easy to say, like, yeah, diversification still works. I don't know. I don't think it's brave to use recency bias.

Fair. I think recency bias is way easier than like going against the herd now. It was easy to be a contrarian coming out of 2008. It is not easy to be a contrarian right now. Don't you think? If you've been a contrarian for a long time, you've been proven wrong over and over and over again. Yeah, there are, that's a really good point.

There have been contrarian trades. that have worked great over the years in narrow windows. Maybe solar stocks are having a moment right now. Maybe weed stocks are having a moment right now where these things that have just been absolutely left for dead, they could have a year run or two year run. But this thing where everybody was wrong about the big themes in the market, is that a thing in the past? That seems ridiculous, right?

Because maybe actually, I mean, oh my God, Michael, hello? So we were just talking about AI. That is the biggest thing in the market. Maybe everybody's wrong about that. Or maybe they're not. Maybe a video goes to $10 trillion. You're right. There's so many opinions now.

It's hard to find something that someone is on every corner now. Yeah. We're in the past that might not have been the case. Okay. So last week I talked about health care stocks. And I said, are they cheaper? Are they the next energy? And then Michael Sembless from J.P. Morgan did a huge report, a 30-page report on what's

going out of health care stocks, which I thought was interesting. So he shows from essentially 1990 through COVID, healthcare stocks performed identically with technology stocks. They had the same exact returns, except healthcare stocks had way less volatility. So in the 80s, 90s, in 2000s, all the way through 2020, you would have been better off on a risk-adjusted return going with health care than technology,

which is kind of crazy to think about. And ever since then, technology has destroyed and health care has essentially almost gone nowhere this decade. He's showing the valuations are dropping. He went through all this stuff in the report about why this is happening. A lot of it is regulation and drug prices.

But his bottom line is like this sector is pricing in a lot of bad news. So that's your point about, like, are you going to take Nvidia and Microsoft for the next 10 years or like what are those sectors, health care and utilities and energy or whatever? It doesn't have to be either word,

but for the sake of this exercise. I'd rather want to health care. Yeah, but I'm saying, yeah, if you're going to take that contrarian bet and you're still going to be a contrarian, it's funny, it doesn't seem like there are as many contrarians out there as there used to be, or at least there's not as many contrarians pounding the table. I feel like because they've, they've gotten there, they've touched the hot stove so many times, you can't really pound the table anymore. Yeah.

So things are very different today. Like market structure is very different. Risk appetite, which this is not, risk appetite is not permanent because I could disappear in a second. But certainly, this muscle memory of this generation of investors, it's not going to break with the bear market, like a two-year bear market. It would have to take something catastrophic. The thing is, the dot-com bubble didn't really break people's risk appetite. They held onto their stocks pretty good. It was the dot-com bubble, and then six years later, the great financial crisis. That's what finally broke people. It was two 50%

crashes. Right. So you're right. Even a, even a big washout, a 30% bare market or something. Which we just had in the first quarter. Yeah. I don't think that's going to cause people to like all this letting give up. Neither do I. So anyway, there's a chart from Goldman that shows retail flows as a percent of aggregate market cap. And this chart is, it's a one-year chart. And look how much technology stocks they're buying. So it compares the next. NASDAQ 100 versus the S&P 500, and retail flows as a percent of aggregate market cap. And it's a quarter percent, which might sound small, but when you consider how many billions and billions and billions of dollars it is.

But it's up five times this year from what it was. That's pretty crazy. It's the magnitude of the move, not the relative. No, no, no. It's five-xing the S&P 500. Is that what you mean? Because it's starting at zero. Right.

But it was five basis points of market cap. Now it's 25. But the index starts at zero. It's a one-year period. So it's showing that in the last year, they've bought a quarter of a percent of the entire market cap of the NASIC 100. Yeah, I get it. Yeah. It's a pretty chart.

Yes. And so like this, the amount of money in the system, I guess you could quantify that. It's so different. It's so different than in the past. I got some charts, too, about the money in the system later. Last week we talked about the K-shaped economy, and this is interesting because there was a few people who tweeted, uh-oh, fast food companies were, they were one of the ones that had finally some revenue slowdown. I think it was Chipotle.

There was a lot of the fast food, but then bespoke did this chart where they looked at fast food versus sit-down restaurants. And fast food is seeing a big drop-off, sit-down restaurants, saw a huge uptick in sales growth. So this is the case-shaped thing, too, where people are cutting back on fast food, but more people are buying at sit-down restaurants. Does that make sense? I don't know why that would be the case.

So there's a quote... Because this is people who can afford to go out are still spending money, and other people who can't are cutting... This is the same thing last week with the top 20% are still spending way more, and the bottom 20% or 40% are cutting back. All right, so let's read this quote, and then let's talk about it.

This is from the transcript, a quote from the Middleby. What's the Middleby? It's a company. Oh. Anyway, you know what? Let me look this up. What is this company? MIDD is the ticker.

What do they do? The Middleby engages in the design, N-Y charts in the design, manufacturer, marketing, and distribution of food service equipment. Okay, so there you go. All right. So they would know. All right. Number one, really, all this year, traffic through the QSR segment has been down predominantly pretty much the entire year. They've been down in some cases double digits over prior periods. I think just continued cost pressures that the QSRs are facing, whether it's labor, whether it's food, whether it's food, construction of opening new locations. And then you have the backdrop of uncertainty from tariffs. So I don't know how that's quick service restaurant? I don't know how that's so much different than like the other ones. So the ones, so this from bespoke, the ones that are growing are. Kava, Burger King, Shake Shack, Chipotle, McDonald's, Potbelly, Dominoes, noodles and co-tacca belt. Well, look at the one on the right.

It's Olive Garden, Longhorn, and Texas Roadhouse, and Applebee's. Those ones are seeing strong growth. But, yeah, the trade down. Oh, my bad, my bad, my bad. The ones that I just read are the ones that are in the QSR that are growing. Yes. So, all right, geez, all right, I apologize. So this chart is showing that there's way more companies in that segment,

not the ones that I just mentioned, that are shrinking in sales. versus the sit-down restaurants. Yes. But to me, is this also like an office city thing? Yeah, I'm sure that you could say this is one quarter. Let's see if there's a trend. I thought it is kind of interesting in the... Why is Olive Garden scorching hot?

Free breadsticks. You know, their salads are overrated there, though. At Olive Garden. The dressing's too runny. Okay. I haven't been to an Olive Garden in a long time. There's only one around this. All right.

So one of the things that I've been thinking about with this K-shaped stuff is, like, how much of this is just a normalization of, like, catch-up? Because Bank of America has this chart that shows a growing gap between higher and lower-income households, and this is just wage growth. But it was so much higher for the lower end. You can't expect to see that the lower end outperform and have that wages go up that much because the jump was so high. So even a smaller year-over-year increase on a larger base is going to be good for that cohort, right? So a lot of this, I think, is normalization. The Wall Street Journal had a bunch of good charts on it. They just show the top and bottom quartile of wage earners and wage growth.

And again, I think this is the one, this next one. It's the information sector, which is technology, and then leisure and hospitality. Leisure and hospitality in 2021 or 2022 was growing at 14% on a year-over-year basis. So they got that huge bump up. So now even though they're only growing at three and change now, on top of that 14%. Those are good wages. Yeah.

Right? So I think this is just some sort of normalization. It's like the compounding thing. Yeah. Right? You're compounding on a bigger base. So I think a lot of this is just things normalizing. Yeah.

Yeah. All right. Tarves appear to be a non-story, but it might be early. So it says Goldman Sachs. they have a chart showing that our preliminary estimates suggest that more than half of tariff costs have been absorbed by U.S. businesses so far, but this share may decline to 8% over the next several months as consumers and foreign exporters gradually absorb more of the cost. This is really surprising to me. So two-thirds of the cost of tariffs have been eaten by

the businesses themselves, which I wouldn't have guessed at all. You wonder if they just decided to do that and not rock the boat because they've already raised prices enough and like, okay, let's see how this stuff actually shakes out. And, you know, there's going to be a lot of companies that get their deals and they don't have them

and, like, so let's not raise prices and get crazy until we know exactly what this looks like. But obviously, now that they know what they look like, then it'll be like, okay, fine. So the point is that, like, consumers should expect prices to rise from here. That, I don't know, that kind of makes sense to me. unless we get more.

Here's the thing that I don't get. When they calculate these tariff rates, but then you have Nvidia getting a carve-out, and Apple getting a carve-out, because they go to the king and they give them a gold-plated watch or whatever. How do those factor into the overall rates? How do you factor in those carve-outs?

Because there's a lot of companies who are just skirting around to them. I don't know how all this gets measured. Okay. And obviously that's part of the reason that the stock market doesn't care as much. Because that's what? If Nvidia and Apple in Microsoft

aren't going to be subject to these tariffs because they say they're going to invest more in the U.S., then why should we care? Right? All right. This email we got stinks. And it was kind of painful to read. I appreciate the person for sending it.

You read this one? All right. I was hired in February of this year, and before I joined, there was just six people at the firm. They brought me on as their first analyst hire and they tried to institutionalize the equity research side of the business and remove the advisors from needing to place trades. I was the only analyst on a team of five advisors.

Today, one of the owners brought me into a meeting. We were discussing my role, given I was hired six months ago. They said that while nothing was wrong with my work or performance, they can't justify paying me when AI can do everything I can do much, much faster. The thing is, they didn't say anything about AI explicitly. They kept saying that with new tools that are available, advisors are able to do a lot more with less, essentially.

I feel bad. He says, I've disappointed to listen to you guys and others. I was all too aware this could happen. I've been mentally preparing for this eventuality. I never thought it would come so quick. That stinks. Is it possible that these companies will realize that they're making errors by doing this? Or do you think that this is just, nope, there's no going back?

Yeah, this is a real shitty email. I don't want to be like a downer because, you know, people are listening to us for entertainment, for fun. They can be doing anything else. But I also don't want to pretend like this isn't scary. right that was my first read of this is this kind of scary stuff yeah now who knows what the extenuating and he said like listen i maybe there was something wrong with my performance they didn't want to get into it blah blah blah blah blah but i i the way that this email is presented makes sure makes it seem like a i stole this guy's job yeah but i really i really and truly am optimistic about like

our ability to adapt and our resiliency as people and as americans like we figure shit out We, you know, we get things done. So I think that the economy will evolve and there will be more of this, unfortunately. But I think, you know, there will be other jobs created, not that that helps this person. But like, I can't, I just, I can't go to the, to the place where, like, AI is going to take all your jobs. I don't think it's productive. I don't think it's healthy. I don't think it's helpful.

Yeah. I think it's, I think that's like hysterical thinking. And, uh, but like the, the entry level jobs that, that, that's the one area that I'll hone in on. That, that, that, that does worry me. Yeah. I, I agree. And you've kind of been harping at this for a while that, like, what if the AI is going to replace the entry level CFA, essentially?

Um, and a lot of people have said, like, it kind of is for- Power planner, power legal. All of the grunt work jobs, don't do any of that. That's all, that's all going away. Yeah. Yeah, you're, yeah, you're, unfortunately, you have to get more creative. And it's tough for, to, to, Young, like, what's the advice to give young people here?

Just avoid these industries. The advice is, don't let your first job be grunt work. I don't know that's, like, really difficult because by definition, almost most entry-level jobs are. Do something else. If you're going into a role that you know can be replaced by a computer, then it will. And don't do that. Yeah.

Disappointing, though. All right, let's talk about crypto. Hard to hear, though. As I picked up Kobe from camp this weekend, I drove by my alma mater now. community college. What the hell did I know? What do kids know as, as 22 year olds? Like, it's, it sucks. Yeah. And, and I, I told you, I've been having more conversations with students lately. I think they're all kind of reaching out to kind of like, people see this coming. The young people see this coming, obviously. Yeah. And one of the, one of the kids is asking

me, like, you know, you talk about how, like, being creative and communicating is so, such an important skill. And I think, I think you kind of, it's, it's hard to overrate confidence, too. in a lot of areas, whether it's, it's real or you're faking it. But this kid was like, how do I learn this stuff, though? And unfortunately, some of it is you learn by experience. That's the hard part. Like some of the stuff, you just have to, you can't read it in a textbook and understand it. Yeah. You have to go through stuff and trial by fire. All right. Let's talk crypto, Ben. I sold a third of my crypto position. Okay. And I start. started buying Bitcoin and Ether in the middle of 2020, but Bitcoin was like $10,000 a coin maybe.

I don't remember what Ether was at. And there was a lot of silliness going on in my estimation in the market and certainly in crypto. Heath Zilla, for example, all the Treasury companies that we've been talking about. It was ETHZILA. I don't know what that is. It doesn't matter. ETHZILA is a biotech company that is now an ether treasury company. this is much less of a bearish call on these assets because on the one hand you see this behavior you're like this is so dumb for the people that don't like crypto they see this and like

this makes no sense what do you mean company's only purpose for existing is to buy eth like that's that's what we're doing now at the same time uh there is a race to purchase these assets and it's bizarre it is a bizarre thing where there is a fine number of these things, of these tokens. Now, I know there's a bazillion other ones, but for the ones that people want, at least for now, there is a race. There is a small number of sellers relative to the number of people that are buying it,

hence the run-up and price. But for me, it just became too big. It outgrew my comfort level of how much of my liquid net worth was in these things. That was the same exact thought process I had. How do you feel about now that you've done it? Good. Yeah. No, no re-regrets.

What was that bad, Tatah? So a few people asked me if I regretted, I think I sold it 100, if I regretted it. I really don't. Like, oh, I could have squeezed out a little more juice and maybe it goes to 150 and I'm, but I still have a decent size. And from what I started at,

to where it is now, like you said, as a percentage of net worth, it was just getting too high. And I needed to rebalance my personal balance sheet. Yeah, no, wherever it goes from here, whether it goes back down to 60 or up to a $190. I'm good. I'm good. I feel good. I feel good about it. So I was looking at, so from the, from the peak in 2021, whenever that was, like the meme stock stuff and then crypto crashed. And Bitcoin fell 80%. And I think Bitcoin by default, 77% whatever. And Eve fell 80%. Since then, Bitcoin is essentially a double. Even after if you start from the peak of the last time, right, Bitcoin is doubled.

Ethereum essentially went nowhere. And it's just now coming back to those levels again. What a run. By the way, I mentioned this early on the podcast a couple of months ago. At the bottom in April, I remember being on the baseball field. And I said this at the time that I had to unfollow a guy that I respect, whose opinion I respect. Because he almost scared me out of selling my, like a decent amount of my crypto. I almost sold half of it. Didn't he say he was going to go to $5,000 or something?

He said Bitcoin was going to go $10,000. And I don't know what I would. That would have been feeling lots of regrets if I sold the lows in April. Here's the question. was $70,000, and ether was $1,500 or whatever. What are you going to do with the proceeds of your sale? I'm sitting in cash right now. I mean, I'm buying a house.

Okay, yes. I don't mind. I'm very comfortable in 4%. Anyway, so this week's Michael Saylor tweeted. Wait, I think if you have, obviously, rebalancing into other assets is easy to do. But if you have an actual physical world thing that you can take the money and do something with, that's the stuff you never regret. Yeah.

Right? If you said, I'm going to take some of these proceeds and I'm going to use it to do whatever to my house. make the move easier. And that's something that you, okay, fine. Yeah. That makes your financial life easier. The most money that I've ever made on any asset is something that I,

honestly, I don't believe in Bitcoin. Like that's, I'm not like a crypto dude. Like, yes. But it's, it's, I guess it's ironic. Uh, so Saylor tweeted that they own, they bought, they bought 629,000 Bitcoin that they bought for $46 billion. They bought it for $46 billion. That's how much they spent investors with all the convertible offering.

have given them $46 billion that they've spent. That's my interpretation of this. Maybe it's been written about before, but I would love to hear who are the people who are investing in the convertible notes? Like who's funding is? Well, last week when, so we have Tom on TCAT this week,

so we're going to talk about this. Some of his early investors, it's Peter and BitMind Emerald Technology. It's Peter Thiel, it's Druck and Miller. It is the smart money. Like, these are not dummies. They're the opposite of dummies.

Yeah. And I don't, I don't think that this is like leverage. I, my, my interpretation could be wrong. So like the idea that like sailors going to get a margin call, I think it would have to go like way, way, way, way lower. Oh, here's what I was going to say. All right. So again, the limited demand, I mean, the limited supply, the ton of demand, all of that

is well and good and true. And, you know, who knows when that's going to end. It seems to be true for the foreseeable future. But it's still a risk asset. And the VIX is at 14. And there's been no, nothing in the market. Right? And like, Bitcoin is still a risk asset.

I don't care what anyone says. It will go down. Right. If the AI trade unwinds and tech stocks fall, Bitcoin will get hit to. Yeah, more. Yes. Right. Exactly.

I, Bloomberg had this big piece about how Americans are getting priced out of real estate and homeownership. And they looked at this, all, a lot of these big metro areas in the, the costs of rent or buy in 2021 versus now. So this is part of the story that, like, I'm just, how many, we do this every single week. Can the Fed please cut already so we can get on with it? And we've got Jackson Hole this week.

And people are like, oh, we've got stocks at all time highs, valuations at all time highs, Chamath is back. We've got crypto. And we're going to cut rates. The only thing that matters is the housing market. Right. And this is, we're about to talk about it. but like, aren't you sick of, we do this, we do this every single week.

We've been doing this for the last three years. Aren't you over it? Yeah, we know. People aren't moving. How's this too expensive? The amount of money that you're spending is percent of your income. I can't do it anymore. I have nothing else to say.

Here's the dichotomy that's interesting to me, though. So this is from John Burns. And they show that since 2023, rent, rent households have served by $1.6 million. So you had like zero rent growth from 2017 to early 20, And now the increase in rental units has been gone vertical, which makes sense. People are looking at these numbers and going, why would I buy when it's so much cheaper to rent? But the thing that people aren't doing is moving.

So this charter chart shows that the total number percentages of American moving in the mid-90s was 17, 18%, and now it's 8%. And it keeps going down. So this is the interesting part of it, that there are obviously places where it doesn't make sense to buy a home, and it's way too expensive, and some people are never going to be able to afford to do it. But people, they're not moving away to find cheaper housing. So people care about housing, it's a huge issue, but they don't care enough to move and find cheaper housing somewhere else. That's an interesting dichotomy to me, that it hasn't caused more people

to move yet. They've just said, ah, fine, I'll just rent, instead of move. And I understand why, but it's interesting that I don't understand why the total percentage of moving people. Why is that going down so much. It's because I think it's because remote work is a huge part of this. That's part of it. That makes sense. And moving sucks. This trend was already well in motion. Yeah, it was. It was. I think

moving is, is there anything more disruptive? Now, listen, if you're a young person and you have the ability to hop around and experience the world or the country, amazing. But uprooting your family, Moving with, and another part of this is the dual income households. Right?

Like now that both people work, you are much more reliant on friends and family to help. That's true. It's harder to uproot for a job because you're- You can't do it. It's impossible. It's just interesting to me that that hasn't been an outcome of this. That people haven't decided. Listen, I'm moving, I screw to York, it's too expensive for San Francisco.

I'm moving to Iowa. It's cheaper there. Imagine you had to move out of state. It would be impossible, right? Yeah. Yeah, it would be tough. All right, I want to talk about a million-dollar houses. This is one of the things you said, we keep talking about this.

This is one of the things I still can't wrap my head around. So we had two houses listed in our neighborhood. You've been in my neighborhood before. There's 20, 25 houses. Two houses listed last week for some reason. I don't know why. One of the houses that people moved in in 2023, they fixed up the house and out they're moving out already,

which sounds awful to me. Go through this whole run, and I don't know why. I didn't know them. both of these houses are listed for more than a million dollars in my neighborhood. Okay? Like a decent amount over a million. And when this neighborhood was built in the 2010-ish, mid-2010, and these houses were nowhere close to a million dollars when they were built, right?

My house wasn't anywhere close to that number when we bought it. I just think it's weird wrapping your head around the fact that a million dollars has started to become more normal for the price of a house. Even in an area like West Michigan, which is crazy to me. does this bleed into the stock market a little bit? Like the median stock used to trade for 16 times. Well, okay, well, guess what? Now there's too much money. There's too much money and now it's 20 times. Get over it. Well, I had a friend to tell me this week, he said, the price of a new boat is now what a starter home used to cost like seven years ago. And that's just what it is.

It's true. And the funny thing is is when these houses listed, my wife is like, well, they're listening for that. But I'm like, listen, no, this is the new level now. Right. And you're right. Maybe Cape, the average Cape was 18 in the past. Now it's 25. Get used to it. But Redfin had this report where they looked at. The only different, only.

One of the zillion differences is that stocks should be, they should be tethered to like their cash flows and their fundamentals. If you're buying a business, I'll pay, yeah, I'll pay 13 times to this business. I won't pay 20 times. I won't make any money. But in the world today where everybody is a millionaire, and I know not everybody's a millionaire, so that sounds ridiculous. But you understand the point.

When there are, how many million millionaires are there? There's like competition for stocks. It sounds like the dumbest thing ever. But it's true. The number I found, I think from Redfin said 9 to 10% of homes are now worth a million dollars or more. So one under every 10 houses is worth a million dollars or more in the country. And so you just have to get used to it.

So this is the inflation. But wait, how about this? housing is just like Bitcoin with a supply there's a constrained supply there's more demand like housing is just like Bitcoin yeah

in a lot of ways right to the moon all right this is interesting one more from Yardinny he looked at the value of household real estate and then the equity and then how much people have borrowed

and look at the bottom line that red line is home mortgages has essentially gone nowhere as the prices of an equity have gone crazy because everyone was able to it's gone up a little bit but wow that this will never happen again ever this is a one one time thing through all of human history never going to happen again where we see something like this wow wow ben all right let's talk about things that people have very strong opinions on

with no nuance whatsoever okay okay i did a few things on social media this week and uh here's one of them. A guy last week and asked the compound asked if he should buy a Porsche. Yes, the answer is yes. I'm a millionaire next door. My wife and kids think we're middle class, but I'm sick. I've saved my whole life. I want to buy a Porsche.

And I put this out on Twitter and I said, what should this guy do? Buy a Porsche. You're going to die. Enjoy yourself. That was one extreme answer. The other extreme was. How is that extreme? That is a fact.

At some point, you will no longer be on this planet. And it could be tomorrow. and you should enjoy yourself. That is not extreme. And that's where I fall, too. A lot of people say, and a lot of people say, no, this is a depreciating asset. It's ridiculous. Oh, my God.

But those are the two extremes. Listen. I'm on your side. Trust me. Some people have that mindset. You're not going to change anybody's opinion. If you think that a Porsche is a depreciating asset, then you are living with a different worldview than I am. And that's fine.

That's what makes the world go around, I suppose. One more thing. And this is maybe like the availability bias or something. But we talked last week about how we're also so over. Maybe this whole podcast now is just over stuff we keep talking about. But we're so over the young people are so depressed. And not that we're like poo-pooing it. Because obviously these things are real.

Social media and the internet, like young people didn't have a chance in a lot of ways. But I was listening to a podcast. I think it was Derek Thompson at a podcast. And he interviewed the author of those charts. and they were talking about how lonely and miserable all these young people are and all the data shows this and it backs it up. I don't believe it. I'm sorry.

Everybody's depressed. So I go to the gym and at the planet fitness I work out. Surveys are broken. We keep saying this. It's a surveys. Is everybody miserable? At the gym I work out at right by my office, it's in the summer, I think it's free memberships for high school and college students, which is kind of cool. And every time I go in there, I see three or four bros over here

lifting weights with each other. And three or four bros over here, then three ladies on the treadmill, all on the incline. Everyone does the incline walk now. That's the hot exercise these days. Like, if you walk in a treadmill, you can't just walk,

you have to be on an incline. Yeah. And they're talking and they're laughing. And they're working out together. And maybe this is, well, the people who go to the gym are different, but I just think it's okay

to hold two opinions in your, like, social media is having an impact on the way people perceive themselves. I also think young people now are almost all bipolar. They have an online persona and a physical world persona

and they're two completely different people. We've mentioned this before. We've met people like this where people on the internet that have a personality and then you meet them physically and you're like, wait, what? Yes, you're nothing like I thought

you would be in real life. So which is the real you? I think it's easier to fake who you are in person but maybe it's both. Maybe it's a Jekyll and Hyde type of thing. Howard Stern plays a character on the radio. Like, that's not his real personality off air. But I think, I do think that the social media dual personalities has broken everything.

And I choose to focus on, no, the world isn't like ending everybody's depressed. I just don't buy that. I'm, you know, obviously there's some of that for sure. But it's exhausting. It's enough. It is. All right. One more, there's too much money, chart for you.

Eddie Ardenny has assets held in IRAs, and this thing is going to the moon. It's at $17 trillion now. I think it was at 11 heading into the pandemic. And this thing is just going to keep going up because of baby boomers rolling over 401ks and IRAs. But this is where the deregulation stuff is going to come in big time, where I think people were at least a little boxed in with their 401K assets in terms of what you could invest in, right?

It was just pretty run-of-the-mill mutual funds, most of the, you know, Sure, some of them were overcharged, actively managed mutual funds that had high fees and such. But once this money gets into the IRAs, then it's kind of like it's wild, wild west. Obviously, most of this money is going to financial advice, let's be honest. But a lot of this is going to be, you're right, the Trump for the sharks essentially. Yeah. It's a lot of money, though. All right, another big week for streaming.

apparently YouTube is trying to get the rights to host the Academy Awards like YouTube TV like YouTube really

okay YouTube I don't know if it's YouTube TV I assume it's just YouTube I guess that I guess it wouldn't it makes sense why not right my kids watch more YouTube

than TV I have to tell them stop watching YouTube watch a streamer yes watch Disney It's the only thing I say no, too, like no YouTube. To them, YouTube is TV, though. It's bizarre. All right, so this is from Lucas Shaw over at Bloomberg.

Happy Gilmore 2 delivered the biggest opening weekend ever for a streaming movie, which I guess is not that surprising, quality notwithstanding. It generated... If the number of people continue to grow, these numbers are going to get bigger. But also, like, who didn't watch, at least a little bit? I watched... So I contributed a... 15 minutes of the 2.9 billion minutes of viewing, the week it debuted.

I would love to see how many people went, will ever go back for more. Zero. So 24 million people watched it. Okay. And how many subscribers does Netflix have? Is it? Do we know? 350, 400 million?

I don't know. I'm sure you could Google that very quickly. I don't go to Google anymore, man. I use chat GPT. 300, like 300 million. Okay. it's a decent amount. All right.

We do have to mention future-proof sign-ups. They keep giving us updates on Slack for future-proof. The sign-ups are happening. Like, if you don't sign up soon, you're not going to go. All-tham-high. It's interesting how many of the attendees end up signing up last minute. And yeah, we're at all-time highs. It's going to be...

I think the last week was like, we're like breaking records and number of people signing up. So, like, we're already... Yes, we're already close. Oh, we've got some Exhibit A swag. I'm excited. I'm going to be rocking an exhibit A bucket hat. I think we made a hundred of them

All right I had a friend wearing a bucket hat this weekend and I can never tell if people are doing it ironically I'm not doing it ironically I'm not doing it just for son I understand that

You're a bald But I also I also I don't why do you think they look bad I think if you're If you're wearing a bucket hat and crocs You've given up on life Let's just be honest I do wear a bucket hat

With sandals with socks on Not crocs but My kids wear sandals and socks. Apparently that used to be like that was a sign of like you're a dork and now it's like it's a thing. Well, let me tell you why I wear my sandals and my socks and it's not for a fashion statement.

Actually, it seems to another point. Glad you mentioned this. So the sandals that I wear, they're like one of those ones with like the big soul at the bottom. So they kind of, you feel like sneakers. It doesn't feel like you're hitting the ground. But they sort of cut my foot

when I'm walking with them. That's why I wear socks. I don't do it because I think it's like looks good or anything. It's just time to buy a new pair of sandals, man. No, but they're very comfortable with socks on. All right. I think my feet are broken.

Speaking of, like, getting cut behind my sandals. Unless, all right, growing up, I can never... That's because your second toe is as big as a middle finger. I do have a very large toe. Growing up, I was never able to have a pair of Jordans. They were too expensive. I had a $60 hard cap. I was in the same boat.

I was able to buy. So now that I am an adult and I'm able to buy Jordans, I buy Jordans. And I hate all of them. And I just bought another pair. Why do you hate them? Because they all fucking cut my feet. They all cut my heels. And they end, not only do they cut my heels, they're not comfortable.

Jordans suck. I probably have eight pairs of them, and they all suck. I love how they look. I love that I'm able to buy them. You know what? Now that you mention it, I have a handful of pairs of Jordan's too. You're right. They're really not that comfortable.

No, no, no. They're worse than not that comfortable. They are actively uncomfortable. every time I come home, either my heels are cut or they're squeezing my feet and I have to like rip them off. I'm like, oh, am I going to stop wearing them? Probably not. So you just need to like hang them on your wall or something as a piece of art. But I think I, I think I've bought my last pair. Okay. I bought a pair of Jordans this week. My wife's going to.

Which ones? She makes fun. I don't know. She makes fun of me. I look all the ones that look like they're from the 90s, essentially. But I guess they mostly do it. Okay. I have to give a tribute here really quick. When I was growing up, I never had like, you know, people tell those stories of like, I had a teacher who changed my life or a professor in college who changed my life. I never had that once. I never had a teacher who, like, no offense to any of my teachers growing up, but no one, like, had a big impact on me that I had like a close relationship with or that, like, changed my life. For me, it was always coaches. And so I think last week or two weeks ago, my high school football coach passed away. He was 85, RIP, Larry Sellers is the name. Same name. is the guy from Big Lebowski, right? But he was one of the... Do you see what happens, Larry? Yeah, he was one of the winningest coaches in Michigan high school football history.

And he was... He wouldn't make it today in today's world as a coach. He was a throwback. Like, he broke a clipboard over someone's head. He was one of the... There was a... In our school, remember when in school when a visitor would come into school,

you'd have to sign into the office. Like, if you're a visitor coming to see... someone, like, you know, you can't just come into a school. And some kid came to our school to visit a friend. And in the cafeteria, and we had a small school. So he goes, hey, who are you? Did you sign in at the office? Where's your pat? You know, and the kid said, I'll scram, old man. And he grabbed the kid by the throat and threw him against the wall. This is the kind of guy he was. He wouldn't. But he was, like, hard in all the good ways and, like, pushed you, like, I think there's so many good things I learned from sports. And he was one of the reasons why. And he always

said that like characters who you are when no one else is looking. I still remember all the stuff that he said and he would say like practice doesn't make perfect, perfect practice makes perfect. And so I learned so much from him in terms of hard work and stuff. So he was like the teacher that changed my life. So RIP Larry Sellers. Kids need role models and in the future it's going to be chat. Should be too. J-K. Probably. Yes. But he, yes. Larry would get canceled today, unfortunately. Can I say one about getting canceled? Yes. So I told you this, I told you this yesterday. I called you. I'm listening to another audiobook. Actually, all right. So I got this app that somebody recommended. The app is called Libby. And I downloaded

the stand. I'm a big Stephen King fan. I've read a lot of his books. Oh, Libby is the one where you can rent. Yeah, he can rent from the library. One of the books, his books that I never read was the stand. And I had the physical copy. And I think I had the original one, which is 800 pages. I rented the longer one. He like redid it. It's 1,200 pages. And I got to be honest, I listen to, I don't know, 11 hours, I was a quarter of the way done with it. It was very difficult to keep up with. There are so many different, you ever read the stand? No, for some reason, I've never read any Stephen King, which is probably a whole of my reading material. I don't know why. Okay. Anyway, there are like 15 different main characters, and it is so

confusing. I remember watching the TV miniseries back in the day. I watched it. And then it I got ripped away from me because, like, I guess you only have it for the moment of time. So I rented it again, but I have to, like, wait for it to be delivered. I don't know. You listen to it on, like, two-time speed? Yeah, yeah. Okay. So, anyway, I feel like I'm pot committed at this point.

So in the meantime, while I wait for it to get, like, delivered back to me, I don't know how white audiobooks can't just be delivered automatically, but I don't have it right now. So I did, I download another book. Jail Blazers. Listen to this one on Spotify. And Jail Blazers is about the Portland Trail Blazers. and if you're a sports fan, you remember this team very well.

And it starts early. They should have won a title. They should have beat the Lakers that one year. Well, they were up. Yeah, they were. So the lob, the co-beat of the Shack Lobb, that was game seven. They were down 13.

The Lakers were down 13 going to the fourth. And that team had Scotty Pippen and Bonzi Wells. But the earlier team had like Isaiah Ryder, Emmerchid Wallace and Kenny Anderson and Gary Trent and like a lot of guys that had a long rap sheet of arrest. Big personality isn't, yeah. And anyway, Anyway, this would not happen today.

This is pre-cancel culture where the person who's now reading the book, whoever's reading the book, when he gives quotes from the players, he puts on a certain affect to do each of their voices. And it's absolutely wild. I can't believe that he's talking with their affect. And each one is different. Do you think he, like, studied the player's voices? I do because when he does P.J. Carlissimo, who has like a gruff, like a barky sort of voice, so that's what he sounds like. But it's still, it sounds, it took me a back. Okay. Good call on the best movie you're ever. I started reading that one. It's very good.

That's a great. That was a fun, fun, fun one. All right. My recommendation this week is Platonic on Netflix, or on HP, no, what is it? It's on Apple. It sounds like a bad show. So it's the Seth Rogan Roseburn show. It came back. I thought it was just a one-season show. It's about, it's a perfect middle-age. show. So it's two, they were best friends in college. They never had a romantic interest. Seth Rogen and Rose Byrne. They have great chemistry because of neighbors that they did together. And it's, it's so funny. It's, it's about parenting and it's about trying to still have friendships in middle age when you have a job and you have kids and you have all these responsibilities. And the season two just started and it's still, it's hilarious.

Okay. That I will watch with my wife. We, I never, that's a perfect wife. My wife cracks up at everything Roseburn does. And she's, she's, she's, she's, she's, really, really funny. And I just thank them for, like, keeping, I thank Seth Robyn for keeping comedies going. Okay. I'll watch it. It's very good. And it's a very easy light show, you know. So I watched Jurassic World, my son

sought in the theater with my wife a couple weeks ago, and then we bought it on demand order on Apple. And I lost interest, like, immediately. It's just like, they're trying to make it like jaws, I guess, because they're chasing these animals. Here's my idea for how they can continue. Wait, hold on. Did you finish the movie?

I didn't yet. I'm halfway through. It's like, I'll finish it but I wasn't like really into it Here's my idea for how they can save this series If they want to keep it going The one thing that they haven't And I thought the thing they nailed Was after dinosaurs have been here for 30 years

People kind of lost interest Like eh whatever That was pretty good But what they didn't get is You know how they have all the stories Now about Disney adults Like Michael Anthony Allen Like Disney adults are like this crazy group of people

Do you mean dad in the bay They But they The thing they haven't leaned into is the comedy aspect. They could make the next Jurassic World a dark comedy about like the adults

who are way too into dinosaurs. They'll never do that though because they can do it like Sean of the Dead. They need a general audience. Yeah, I know. They need like a show, but they need to they need to spruce it up. All right, funny.

Wait, wait, hold on. I have something in Jurassic World. So I rented it for Kobe because he's been dying to see it. I watched it a two nights ago. And it was much more palatable the second time because my heart was already broken

in the theaters when I saw it. Kobe loved it, not surprisingly. but last night we went to watch we went to rent Superman and I think Jurassic World I went to for 20 bucks and Superman with $25 and I asked him for some to contribute as a Kobe. It's I spent $20 last night at Jurassic World. Superman is $25. Do you want to spend $25 on Superman or do you want to wait until it comes out on HBO Max? And Robert goes, what are you doing?

She's like, would you make him give you money, take him to the theater? And then I was like, get a butt out. It's not none of your business. And then she found out that I only rented because Logan wanted to watch Jurassic World. Oh, instead of buying it? So I got my rent to it again. And she goes, hold on. You rented it for $20.

You didn't buy it for $25? That's what I did. I bought it because it was $25. But I didn't want to buy it. It didn't even occur to me. How many times were you going to watch this movie? Right. Anyway.

Yeah. All right. It is funny. I always do that with my kids, too. like everyone's from a while, you have to make them feel the pain of open up that piggy bank. Yeah, I'm like trying to teach him about money. Yes. Meanwhile, Robin gave him $150 from when he got home because she said that he was going to,

she said she was going to give him money for every picture that he smiled in at camp. So when he came home, there was like toys and stuff in his bed and $3.50 bills. And when I saw, I said, what are you doing? That is a boy. That is a boy's right of passage, not smiling. in pictures. That's just something almost all boys do. Yeah. I was served up road trip

on Netflix last weekend and I watched it and man do we really miss 90-minute economies. That's a great movie. I forgot it was Todd Phillips too. And so I look at this. So Sean William Scott, the Stiffler guy, he did American Pie in 1999 and he immediately did a road trip the next year and then American Pie 2 was in 2001. And he essentially plays the same character,

just a lighter version of Stifler. And whatever, it's an over-top, raunchy comedy, but this kind of movie we don't have anymore. But he had a pretty good movie career, actually, Stifler. So he had the American Pie movies. He did Road Trip. He was in the one with the Rock Stunk. I like that one.

I like that one. It was okay. He was in Final Destination. He was in old school. That's right. You have a dart in your neck. Roll models with Paul Rudd wasn't bad. Hold on.

Role models was great. I like that movie. Goon, the hockey one. I don't know if you ever saw that where he plays a, an enforcer in like a IHL hockey league so he actually had a pretty good movie career surprisingly from just that one role

anyway yeah good stuff road trip I mean in the late 90s early 2000s which is right when I was in high school college years it was the greatest run ever of teen stuff in movies it was amazing we just don't have that anymore

we uh we got we got it all right sign up for future proof if you don't now it's it's you're never going to be able to We had one friend who said, listen, blues traveler put me over the top. I'm coming. Right?

Exhibit A4advice.com for all your charting needs. What else? You on Talking Wealth this week? I'm on talking to Walth at Y charts, actually. Oh, good. And I have Carl Richards on Thursday. Oh, hell yeah. Oh, you know what?

You know what? You know what? Somebody emailed us asking, getting back to us not mentioning the other shows enough. somebody emailed us about if we could talk to West Gray about the 351 exchange and I wrote back I spoke to him last week so if you're an advisor we are doing these shows we'll put the link in the show notes but yeah we're doing we're doing industry stuff so check it up animal spirits at the compound news dot combe. See next time.

Thank you.