Animal Spirits Podcast - Depressed Day Traders (EP. 477)

Episode Date: August 12, 2026

On episode 477, ⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠Ben Carlson⁠⁠ discuss: new all-time highs in the stock market, AI is the only thing that matters, emerging markets are cheap, 1987 crash calls, things rich people and poor people have in common, day trading is hard, how often you should check your portfolio, early retirement, housing market recessions and much more. This episode is sponsored by Xtrackers by DWS. Find out more at ⁠http://xtrackers.com/ ⁠ Sign up for The Compound newsletter and never miss out: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠thecompoundnews.com/subscribe⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Us On Social Media: Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠instagram.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠twitter.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Find complete show notes on our blogs: Ben Carlson’s ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠A Wealth of Common Sense⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Michael Batnick’s ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Irrelevant Investor⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Feel free to shoot us an email at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[e-mail]⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.   Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Xtrackers by DWS Disclosure:  Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Stocks may decline in value. Bond investments are subject to interest-rate, credit, liquidity and market risks to varying degrees. When interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall. Foreign investing involves greater and different risks than investing in US companies, including currency fluctuations, less liquidity, less developed or less efficient trading markets, lack of comprehensive company information, political instability and differing auditing and legal standards. Emerging markets tend to be more volatile and less liquid than the markets of more mature economies, and generally have less diverse and less mature economic structures and less stable political systems than those of developed countries. Funds investing in a single industry, country or in a limited geographic region generally are more volatile than more diversified funds.  Performance of a fund may diverge from that of an underlying index due to operating expenses, transaction costs, cash flows, use of sampling strategies or operational inefficiencies. There are additional risks associated with investing in high-yield bonds, aggressive growth stocks, non-diversified/concentrated funds and small- and mid-cap stocks which are more fully explained in the prospectuses, as applicable. An investment in any fund should be considered only as a supplement to a complete investment program for those investors willing to accept the risks associated with that fund. Please read the applicable prospectus for more information.  The brand DWS represents DWS Group GmbH & Co. KGaA and any of its subsidiaries such as DWS Distributors, Inc., which offers investment products, or DWS Investment Management Americas, Inc. and RREEF America L.L.C., which offer advisory services. Xtrackers ETFs ("ETFs") are managed by DBX Advisors LLC (the "Adviser"), and distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc. (“ALPS”). The Adviser is a subsidiary of DWS Group GmbH & Co. KGaA, and is not affiliated with ALPS. Copyright © 2026 DWS Group GmbH & Co. KGaA. All rights reserved. 111191-1 (08/26) DBX007483 (08/27) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's show is brought to you by X-Trackers by DWS. Imagine harnessing the power of global transformation, investing in artificial intelligence, critical technology, semiconductors, and green energy. With X-Trackers, innovative, thematic lineup, you can gain access to the ETFs that target these transformational sectors. It's more than investing. It's aligning with the innovations that are shaping tomorrow. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, X-Trackers makes exploring new

opportunities seamless. Find out how at X-Trackers.com. Together we grow. All investments involve risk, including loss of principle. Information on the funds investment objectives, risk factors, charges, and expenses can be found in the fund's prospectus at XTrackers.com. Read it carefully before investing distributed by Alps. Distributors ain't. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Michael, how many new all-time highs has the S&P 500 hit since 1950? What's your guess? Ballpark it. 1,468. It's like 1,379. You're pretty close. Holy shit.

Did you just pull that out of your ass? Not bad. I'm very proud of myself. More or less? Okay. So I think that's like 7% of all trading days. I say this because last week we hit all-time highs again. You and I talked about this a little bit.

Some charts from Exhibit A here that show when this happens. 26 new all-time highs so far this year. The average since 1990 is about 21, so we're a little ahead of schedule here. But the average is obviously skewed and buried in the good years. There's a lot of them. Because there's plenty of years where there wasn't any. Look at those, look at that 2000 to 2012 range. A lot of zeros.

A lot of nothing. So you have to take this one you can in the good times. I think that this many all-time highs, given all of the headlines, would have surprised a lot of people. War on Iran, higher gas prices, all this stuff people are worried about. Right? And the stock market continues to move higher. Is it all AI still?

Is this the thing that just, AI trumps everything. It doesn't matter what the headlines throw at us. It all determined by AI. Ben, you're right. AI is the only thing that matters. We've spoken recently about how this market is Teflon. It started with the global pandemic.

And once in a hundred-year storm of inflation. And then we had the Fed jack-gump interest rates. The housing market is frozen. Silicon Valley Bank went under. Tariffs. Liberation Day. Two wars. Remember the yen carry trade on wind?

That was a thing for like a day. Who cares? But yes, it's one thing after another. Evergrand in China. Remember that when we had to worry about that? Pretend to carry about that. Evergreen in China. It's one thing after the other.

Commercial real estate crisis was going to happen. There was going to be a commercial real estate crisis because everyone worked remotely. Private credit crash. Yep, private credit. Stacflation fears. I, I, the, the reason why none of this has mattered, uh, really and truly, I do believe it's the AI trade. I mean, I don't think I'm going on a limb there.

So look at this chart. Uh, well, actually, you know what? The consumer part of it is also a, uh, a big part of the story. The fact that the consumer has been able to be resilient through all of this is remarkable, but through the lens of the stock market, what matters, obviously is, is, uh, is the AI trade and the continued expansion of CAPEX numbers. This is wild. Look at this chart from hyperscaler farmer or hyperscale farmer. Bloomer consensus on a rolling basis now surpassed $3 trillion. So we're looking at the three-year sum on a rolling 12 month forward basis for Amazon, Google, Meta,

Oracle, and Microsoft. And in December 2020, when this thing started, it was at $500 billion. And it's gone up and up and up and up. And now it's going vertical. and we're looking at $3 trillion over the next three years, I suppose. Is that what we're looking at here? That's amazing. I think one of these things these companies don't get enough credit for is the fact that for years it was kind of like all these companies are too short-term in nature and they just care about share buybacks and now look at these companies are investing

everything they have essentially back into long-term projects. these things are not really paying out yet. And I think they deserve credit for saying, all right, fine, we're going to, we're going to think and act for the long term. And people still hate it because people hate data centers and we'll get into that later.

But this is, this is, just, there's never been anything like this before where the biggest companies just said, all right, we're changing everything. We're getting rid of all of our money. Take it. See you later. So, Ben, you mentioned the start of the show,

all the time highs that were enjoying, I mean, I hope you're enjoying them. I sure am. And it won't last forever, as we know. So what could be on the other side of this? I think this is the obvious danger. Is this line is now such a gigantic, I mean, it's going absolutely vertical.

And it can't continue to do this forever. It's not going to go from $3 trillion to $4 trillion to $7 trillion. Like at some point, there's an upper limit. And what's awesome about this cycle is that you're not relying on these fly-by-night companies that have no earnings or anything like that. But the hyperscalers are powering a lot of the earnings growth that we're seeing because they're the ones doing the spending.

And if and when they slow down, the market's going to come down with it. But yes. Do you think we could see a handoff? But this is what we've been talking about for three years, I feel like. like eventually, but the thing is, eventually there's going to be an ROI in this for them. That's the hope.

That's the handoff, right? Is the ROI coming? Coming back to their pockets. You always give these corporate CEOs more credit than me saying, like, listen, these are not dumb people. They're not doing this, like, for their own ego or something. They're doing this because they think it's going to give them a return on capital at some point.

I did believe that. And I guess if you're betting against that. And I believe they believe. I believe they believe that. Yes. And if you're betting against that, you're betting against like seven to ten of the biggest and best companies that have ever been created, that they have no idea what they're doing. And it's possible that they don't.

But I think you have to give them the benefit of the doubt for everything that they've done in the past 15 to 20 years in terms of transforming the stock market and their companies. Let me give you a data point. This is from Sevita Bank of America. S&P 500 Q2 EPS is on pace to grow 30% year over year. And that excludes the investment markups from Amazon and Alphabet, all of their private shares. So, real-life earnings is- Explain that to people, because people don't, I don't think I've been realized it's a lot of,

some of the earnings growth has been because these companies own a share of Anthropic and Open AI, and they've been jacked up. And SpaceX. Invaluations. And SpaceX, right. Correct. So that is showing up in their earnings. But if you back that out, because obviously that's not repeatable.

If you back that out, it's still on pace to grow 30% year-over-year. I mean, if you include the gains, which are one-time and you shouldn't, it's up 50%. But again, back them out, 30% year-over-year growth. I can't believe the market's on an all-time high. What a shocker. Look at this chart from Yardinney. Looking at the – so we had Ed Yardinney on the podcast last week, Wall Street Legend, been in the business forever.

He has a chart that shows – If you type in Ed Yardin or Yardini research charts, he's got a ton of wonderful charts. Yeah. I've been using his bull and bare market tables for years. So he's got one on a side-by-side chart of the indexes, large, mid and small, as well as the forward operators per share. You're an index guy? You're an index guy? I'm an index guy.

What I say? The indexes? The indexes. I don't do indices. Okay. Nope. I know it's tomato. If you have a British accent, you see indices.

Sure. If you have a long island accent, yeah, you say indexes. With the operating earnings per share up and to the right at an all-time high. And this is the kind of thing, if you looked at this and thought it was a stock, like a momentum stock, you'd say, I'm buying the breakout here. I'm doing technical analysis on operating earnings. Big time flag, but it kind of defies logic. How is this possible? Imagine showing this to someone five years ago. Pre-chat GPT. Hey, by 2026, operating profits are going to go absolutely vertical. What would they have said what's happening? you couldn't have predicted something like this. There was no way in 2021 you would have said, this is coming. We're going to have 5% rates.

We're going to at some point have 9% inflation. And S&P 500 is going to be up 16% per year. And operating profits are going to go through the roof. What would have had to happen? There's no logical scenario back then you could have come up with for this. Correct. All right. This is interesting from duality research.

I think we share a chart from them like every, once a week. Great substack. This year alone on a year-to-date basis, again, we always record this, usually pre-market on Tuesdays. The Russell 2000 is up 22% per year. That's small-cap stocks. Equal-weighted S&P 500 is up 16% and the S&P itself is up 14%. So it's close the gap a little bit, but equal weight is still outperforming. Yet only 45% of companies are outperforming the S&P 500 on a year-to-date basis. It's kind of crazy. 86%. He breaks it out by sectors as well. 86% of energy stocks are outperforming this year. 64% of materials.

Almost 60% of technology and 60% of industrials. So I don't know that you could necessarily call this like a hands-down pound-the-table stock pickers market even. Even though these other areas of the market are now picking up the slack, small caps and such, like if you're a stock picker, this is still probably kind of a challenging year. Because it's not like energy and industrial materials make up a huge part of the index. How many people have a huge allocation to those sectors? Energy investors.

So this is going to be one of those years where you go, oh, if you're an active stock picker, you should be doing really well, and you still might not be. Because not as many stocks are outperforming the S&P as you think. I think it's like half right now. Yeah, I just said it. It's 45%.

Right. Yeah, it's in the chart. See the blue line? In my defense, in my defense, I just got a very important text message. So I apologize to you in the audio. but I'll share the text message with you after and you'll understand. Okay.

In my defense, and I get yelled at my wife, I put my phone on Do Not Disturb when I'm podcasting. All distractions away. My wife goes, what if there's an emergency? I said, no, nothing trumps podcasting for emergencies, okay? We'll have to wait an hour. All right. Hey, you know what?

You know what? You look very handsome today. I like your outfit. You're looking good. You've got a three button polo. and you gave me shit a couple of weeks ago because I had only, what did I have unbuttoned? The top two buttons, unbuttoned?

Yeah. Are you all the way to the top or is that one unbutted? I can't tell. No, you do one below the top. How do you wear a shirt like that? It's so tight. If I was wearing that, I'd be sweating my butt off. I'm a sweater.

Yeah, it's kind of cool. It works. Thank you. And I like your Chun Lee shirt. Well, thank you. That's definitely, yeah. Instagram is your personal shopper still, I see. I've had this whole thing for years.

All right, from Bloomberg. After pulling back from an all-time high in late June, the MSCA Emerging Markets Index is valued at 9.9 times estimated earnings next year, while the S&P fetches a multiple of 20. So it's saying that the emerging market stocks now traded a record discount to the S&P 500. This is pretty insane, if you think about it, because emerging markets have been outperforming for the past two years. They outperform by a wide margin in last year.

I guess this year, okay, EM has come back a little bit. What is it up? I mentioned the SPs up 14. Emerging markets are up 27% or so this year. No, 20% this year. But they outperform both of the past two years. And obviously the reason this is happening

is because Taiwan and South Korea are now such a big part of it. So you look at this, Taiwan and South Korea now make up 45, 46% of the emerging markets index. China is another 20%, India is 12. So those are the biggest ones. Technology now makes up 41%. So obviously, you're getting a big part of this, like if you think the U.S. stock market is concentrated, emerging markets are more content. But it's interesting to think about this as a thought exercise. What would you rather own for the next five years?

Let's say the AI trade continues, okay? Would you rather own emerging markets trading out a 10 times forward earnings, forward PE, or the S&PE trading at 20 times forward earnings, when I think emerging markets at 40% technology and a lot of that in South Korea and Taiwan and then China, it's more of a pure AI play. Like, would you rather own the NASDAQ or the emerging markets right now, I think is a fair question? Well, it is. So the valuation aspect of it is interesting, but I'm glad you said that because

it's basically saying, would you rather own Samsung and SK Hynix or the hyperscalers? in time on semi and yeah. Dang it, I did say semi. You said it in the ad read too. You're a semi guy. It's okay. All right. But I think this is another thing that five years ago, you go, what?

You're nuts. If I want to take pure play technology, I'm owning the United States. Now, this is a legitimate question. If you want, and obviously one of the reasons that the earnings are cheaper is because these are semi-stocks that are powering. And the earnings are semi-permanent. But um, well, guess what? How about this?

How about this? Both. Does it, you know, it doesn't need to be all to nothing. But it's just, it's crazy how quickly this kind of stuff can change. Yeah. Where emerging markets were, for years, we're seen as this, it's energy and banks and industrials and materials. Yeah. And now it's a, it's an AI play, essentially.

Yeah, it's wild. It really is unbelievable. All right. Meb Faber for the idea farm, always shares these really long pieces of research. I always pull good stuff out of. This is interesting, speaking of South Korea, this is from bearings. They did this, they did this thing showing retail participation in the equity market for South Korea. It went from sub 10% through all the 2010s into 2020 and now has more than doubled to 28%.

So retail is getting into, like, and this is happening very fast. I feel like this probably looks similar. I think this might look similar to our markets. Here's what doesn't look similar, though. South Korean household asset breakdown. 77% is in real estate, 9% is in cash, 3.6% is in equities and bonds. I don't think people are ready for the wave of money coming into stocks from younger people in other countries. I think there's a huge, huge runway for other people in these countries to get interested in the stock market.

I have not considered that. For South Korea, this is the dot-com bubble for them in terms of the dot-com bubble took ownership in the stock market from like 30% to 60% for the U.S. This same thing is going to happen in places like Taiwan and South Korea and maybe China. Like that kind of thing is going to happen. Look at this is kind of, this is the emerging market thing, why the 4P is at a record discount. Forecast earnings growth expectations for 2026, the all-country world index,

is you kind of have to squint, but it's pretty high. It's like 25%. For Korea, it's 250%. 250% expected earnings growth this year in 2020. Probably not sustainable. Probably not. That's why I trades so cheaply. All right.

I debated putting this in here, but Michael Burry made another crash call. And I want to look at this from a couple different angles. Not the usual, like, uh-huh, Michael Burry is wrong again. Because he's, whatever. If you try to predict the crash all the time, you're going to be wrong. So this is from CNBC. Michael Burry bets against rally. We are near a major top

and a possible 1987 type fall. So he wrote this in his substack, I guess, that he thinks it's possible for 1987 type fall, which I think is essentially impossible to predict. And I think Paul Tudor Jones predicted the original 1987 or said something like this could happen.

I don't think he said it's going to be 22% in a day. But he said we could be setting up for a major top. What did? This is a true story. Like 90%. I don't remember if I put this in my book or not, but I'm 98% sure that I'm not making this up. I read this somewhere.

He used a chart from 1929 and overlaid it with what was happening in 1987. Which is kind of hilarious because people are doing that for the last 15 years. Type of thing that we literally laugh at. Yes. I suppose it worked for him that one time. Right. Okay. So here's where I'm going to say, like, I kind of agree with Michael Burry and

some ways. I don't think we're going to see a 1987 crash, and I think trying to predict one of those is just absolutely ridiculous. But I do think that the way the market is structured now, and with the speed at which things move, an air pocket situation is way of much higher probability than that it was in the past. And to me, that's like a down seven, down eight, down 10 or down 12 percent day if something really bad happens. We had that a million times in the pandemic. and also during liberation day. We had 10% down days, I believe, in the... We had back-to-back 5% down days.

But I'm just saying that type of... That's where I actually agree with him is that when this thing does top out, I'm guessing it will be swift and it will be fast. And that's the part of that I agree with them. Not that it's going to be a 1987 route. I don't know that I agree with you. That could happen.

But why would you say that's going to happen? Because I think there needs to be an event for that to happen. I'm not saying it's going. I'm saying it's a higher probability. event now than it was in the past because of the speed at which the market replaces and the speed at which information moves today. Could be. I mean, listen, this guy, he keeps trying to predict crashes over and over again.

And he, this is interesting. He says, shorting is not for everyone. I must short. Most should not. His personality is obviously, I'm a glass-sef full guy. He's obviously a glass-saf-empty guy. Right? But he just, I think it's in his bones that he has to do this.

I looked, I had, I had, I took a chart of the S&P and said, when did Michael Burry say sell? Remember, all he did was tweeted out sell? And I guess it was in the beginning of 2023, January 20203. The market has doubled since he said that. I think we've talked about this. Some people just don't have the personality or the emotional makeup to be long-term equity holders. And he's obviously one of them. Correct.

Guess what? He's still going to be fine. In 2019, he said there was a bubble in passive investing and it was going to pop. Yes. I wrote a long blog post about how people saying that passive investing at the bubble, it's silly. Did I write this or did you? What's two to three years away? So I was thinking about this. Are we going to look back on the unwind of situational awareness similar to the way that we look on long-term capital management? Now, long-term capital management, for those of you who don't know, was a hedge fund run by quantitative,

mathematical geniuses, and they were doing fixed income arbitrage. So they were trying to pick up pennies. And they used a lot of leverage and the smartest people in investing blew up. So not exactly in apples to apples comparison. But that happened two years before the ultimate top in the stock market. Is this like the precursor before the ultimate unwind eventually? in the future. I know that sounds too perfect. The funny thing is, people don't realize, in 1998, the S&P dropped like 19%. That was a real correction. It was, and it, you know, there's a currency crisis and Russia defaulted on its debt, and that's why that strategy blew up. It almost is a little too perfect, but sure, I'll, uh, I'll give you that one. All right, what's, uh,

okay, did you want me to watch this video? Did you watch this? Adam Carolla, rich man, poor man? Okay. I did. It was clever. I saw a, I saw a, I saw, I saw, I saw, I saw, I saw, I saw, I saw this thing from Seinfeld, and he said, speaking of situational awareness, good lead-in. I saw this thing from Seinfeld, and he said, this is one of my top five favorite pieces of comedy material I've ever heard, and it's rich man, poor man from Adam Carolla. And he talks about, he said, I'm not middle class, it's, he said, there are very, there are similarities that rich people and poor people, like very wealthy and very poor people have in common.

And he said, outdoor showers, either you have one by your pool in the cabana, or you use a garden hose. You're on a first name basis with a judge. Either you see him at the golf course or you've seen him five times in five weeks or something. What are you going? Refrigerator in the yard. The other one was like you drive a car brand that is no longer available anymore. And for rich people, it's like a rare, unique car. And for poor people, it's like a car brand. It went out of business. I like the toilet one. I forget what it was. Yeah, he's got refrigerator in the yard. You have like a I'm kitchen or like you have an appliance dumped in your phone lawn. Oh, the other one I liked was you get escorted out of the stadium by police.

Right? If you're a rich person, escort you out of the stadium. Anyway. I like, this, my finance brain always does this. This made me think of listening to that bit, maybe think of situational awareness. Okay, I'm going to tell you why. So Spencer Jacob at the Wall Street Journal wrote this. And I love, this is kind of line I wish I would have written.

You probably aren't rich or well-connected enough to have a 24-year-old incinerate your savings. I love it. And you think about it. The rich man, poor man is the same with billionaire investors or degenerates that we make fun of, right? Because if a person with $5,000 in their Robin Hood account turned up the dial to five times leverage and they blew up all their stock trading and they got margin called, you'd say, oh, that person is a degenerate. but if you do it with billionaire money, guess what? They're a risk taker. No, that's where, like, wealthy people, wealthy investors and degenerates are kind of the same.

And this is one of the, like the wealthy person, though, the difference is they get a second chance. A lot of the degenerate gamblers might, if they get wiped out, they might not get a second chance. So this is from Bloomberg. Did you like my comparison there? Did that make sense? I'm with you. Yeah, not bad. Kind of landed, right?

investors clamored a bet on AIWISKid's fund after situational awareness turnover. Tormoyle. Hey, they use Wonderkind in here again. A week after the hedge fund nearly blew up, he's already getting a request when investors looking to place more money with the artificial intelligence Wonderkind. Apparently he says he's not taking new money yet. And then this guy from Sequoia says, our suspicion is that he's going to be a fixture in Silicon Valley for a long time to come.

And that's why people are backing this guy and trying to give him more money. Or maybe he's the Ben Simmons of finance. What, never reaches his potential? Yeah, just never to return. I mean, don't, I don't want to get too cute here, but isn't the whole thing, this guy used to work at Open AI, and he's married to someone who's a very high up and anthropic and people are hoping that they just get connections through him. Okay, if he, if he loses this money, fine, but we get the, we get the spouse of someone who was

very high up and anthropic. And that's all that matters. We're all speculating here. Why would somebody invest in him because he's married to Dario's chief of, is the chief of staff? I think so. But why would somebody invest with him because of that alone? I don't know, because VC people, they care about connections and networking and such.

But this was really easy to, you and I talked about last week, of course people are going to give him more money. Yeah. Give him second chance. That was obvious. Mm-hmm. Again, the poor person, though, who blows up the Robin Hood account, they're not getting a second chance. All right, we got it.

We got it. All right. It was good. It was good. You do the next one. All right. There was a headline in Bloomberg, young men who trade stocks daily feel like failures. You don't say.

You don't say. One quarter of men. In an anti-servely podcast, this is one we actually can get behind probably. Yes. One quarter of men aged 18 to 29 said they trade stocks daily. All right, let's just think about that for a second. One out of four men said they trade stocks daily? No.

18 to 29. Yeah, that seems on the high side. Yeah. What would you guess? One of ten, one? Yeah. Five percent, maybe. One and four? Come on.

Whatever. Two-thirds of them report feeling like failures. All right, that part of it, I believe. All right. So they look at the shares of 1829-year-olds. The funny thing is that two-thirds probably changes. At any one point, one-third of them feel good because they're lucky and they're winning. Two-thirds of them are losing.

But then it shifts. Anyway, keep going. So they compare like stock trading and gambling. And if you're doing it daily, yeah, you're going to lose, obviously. And if you do it less than daily, you feel a little bit like less of a loser. gambling and investing. So sports betting and stock market gambling are the same thing. The stock market is a place to build wealth over the long term, but you could treat it like a casino, obviously.

With sports betting, you can't treat it like investing. It is a negative sum outcome. The more you gamble on sports, take it from me, the more money you lose. Matter of fact, this was actually great timing. Yeah, but this is like people like trading options because it's not that you, that the house like wins, it's that there is a big payoff or a big loss. It's the best. You're kidding me?

It's so much fun. Yeah. So I was wondering about this after I saw the study from, I saw Balchunas tweet this, How much money do people lose gambling? I literally, I ask Claude that. And then later that afternoon, Ben, chef's kiss. Mike Mobeson and Dan Callahan wrote a published a report called The Wisdom of Crowds in Markets, Crowds Behavior in Prediction, Betting, and Stock Markets. Great timing.

That's very good. So it turns out that games. gamblers in the U.S., and I don't know how they calculated this, but whatever, gamblers in the U.S. cumulatively lost $3.9 trillion nominally. So $5.8 trillion in today's dollars from 1929 to 2025. Sounds like a pretty big number. Now, is that higher or lower than you would have thought it would be? I've never thought about that number, really.

I don't know. I have to like, how much is that a year? How much is that of overall GDP? how much of that is disposable income? Is it less than 1% of people's disposable income on average? Yeah, probably. It's a giant number, but you have to address for it. Anyway, some of the things that I thought were particularly interesting is,

I am a huge, as I think you are, Ben, wisdom of the crowd's type of person. Don't tell me what you think or don't tell me what you think other people think. Put some money on the line. And when you do that, you get a much different outcome, a much more accurate outcome, which is why the prediction markets do a lot better. for politics than some of the survey exit polls do. So I think there will be all sorts of interesting economic benefits from prediction markets that might make the economy more efficient.

But I am also sympathetic to the fact that it's just straight up gambling and 80% of the activity is still sports betting. Whatever. Anyway, I thought this chart was super duper interesting. They show the actual win rate versus a contract price on Calci. and it is almost one-to-one accurate. So it means that they're setting the right odds. The market is setting the right odds.

The market gets it right. Now, there's like a long-shot bias where bets that are like 90 cents actually win more than they should because who wants to bet on a 90-cent outcome? Right. You're more likely to bet on the 10th cent because it's the asymmetric payoff.

So that's where a lot of losses are happening. the people who are betting on the 10 and 20%. So the long shots actually lose a little bit less than implied by the rates. So anyway, they said that the average VIG is like 4.5% which makes sense. So me... For prediction markets or for all gambling?

I think for... I think they said this is for like for Vegas type odds. Okay. Anyway, so if that's the rake and you know that that's your baseline, so me, my Fanduel account, And I've spoken about this before. I lose seven cents in the dollar.

Now it fluctuates. Something I have a good streak and I get down to like five cents. Sometimes I'm bad and I'm down to nine cents. So I guess I'm worse on average. So will we see a fee war from the gamblers where the Vig goes down? Or is that just always going to be the case? No, I don't think so. I think that's just like baked in.

So they also said, I think p. I think gamblers are okay with it. For the most part. Yeah, everybody knows what's up. Yeah. This is interesting. So the survey found, so they asked people how do they deal with betting? Like, what are they, you know, are they good?

Are they bad? 39% of bettors claim that they win more than they lose. And 28% said they break even. Hilarious. That self-assessment contrasts sharply with estimates that 95% or more of sports betters are unprofitable over the long. long run. Yeah, of course you're unprofitable over the long run because you're four cents in the hole when you start. Of course. Yeah, that's a huge hurdle, right? Yeah. So 39%. You're essentially

paying like hedge fund fees. Yeah. Basically, you're paying two and 20. So 40% of people said they win more than they lose. Yeah, sure. I guess the thoughts on gambling changes when you realize that for 80% of the people, it's probably entertainment. Right? No, more than that. You think it's higher than Matt? I think it's, I think, let's say, I think night, I'm going to make this up. 96% of people are entertained, are entertaining themselves. The problem, though, I wrote, I did a whole chapter and risk and reward about day trading. And there's all these studies about, again, why it's so unprofitable. But it's just the loss aversion thing. The fact that losses sting twice as bad as gains feel

good, the more you do these kind of things, the more you're going to lose, the more painful is going to be. Yeah, so most people stop. Right. So I was going to say 96%. of people are like me. I love it. I will never stop because I entertain myself. And this is discretionary money that I am happy to hand over to Fandul in exchange for entertainment. Although I do think this might be my year. We'll say. Two percent of professionals and two percent are people that get, unfortunately, that ruin their lives because they're addicted. Having said all that,

I think I'm going to be a traitor now because I was in New York last week. Yeah, get in the game, let's go. And I've retired from individual stock trading like 12 times. And I heard Sean and Matt are just back and forth all day. Sean's our research analyst, Matt from Exhibit A, chart kid. They're talking about which stocks to buy and all this stuff. And they're talking about SpaceX. And the whole consensus is everyone is waiting for SpaceX to get to 100. Right. And this is on Wednesday. I said, you know what? It's never going to get there. People are, I'm going to do the beauty contest thing. And I'm just going to buy a little SpaceX. I bought it and it immediately went up to 20%.

Did you sell it? Like three days. And I sold it. Good for you. Outta boy. And I almost nailed the bottom of Microsoft. I got Microsoft about three weeks ago. Like right before it was up 15% a day.

I'm up like 40% until I'm going to become a day trader. You get it at the itch? No. No. Because then. You either have the Gino or you don't. You're not a gambler. No.

Well, I am a gambler, though. I love playing Blackjack. Blackjack is one of my favorite things to do. That is true. I don't, but I'm not. The whole other, like options, betting and day trading, that stuff doesn't do anything for me. Because I know the, I know it. I have too much knowledge there.

You know too much. You're too wise. Ben, you know what else you were right on? What other stock you were right on? Early, but right. You see Airbnb? What's it doing now? It's going crazy.

Is it? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I bought it up the IPO. It was way, way early. Way, way early. Speaking of how quickly Stark's move, I just want to look at at the beginning of July, Microsoft was in a 35% drawdown.

Now it's 5% or 6% from all-time highs. These things happen so fast today. All right, so in conclusion, young men that are day trading, yeah, don't do it. Or do it, get out of your system. It's a loser's game. It's not fun. I mean, it's fun for a little. Some people just have to pay the tuition of the market gods.

Yeah, you know what? I feel like most people go through this. I don't know if that's maybe that's a stretch, whatever. I certainly did. I got it out of my system. This is like, this is what it is. You discover the market. Holy shit, I'm going to get rich.

And eventually, hopefully most people are like, all right, man. It's harder than I thought. I talked to a financial advisor once who told me, like he had a client come in who could tell just wasn't. He goes, you're not a prospect. He said, you're not ready for me yet. Go back out for like five more years and do your own thing. You get out of your system.

Then come back to me. Some people aren't ready for just like the boring stuff right away. They need to have the excitement and then they get the boring stuff later. You truly are a one of one. You literally opened a brokerage account and bought a retirement date fund. Did you not? That's right. My very first purchase was a target date fund.

You are really. This is like, that's like 2005 maybe. And how much are you up on that? Do you still hold it? I traded it for something else a long time ago. That would have been something. All right. We have to talk about SpaceX.

So we spoke about the SPVs over in the lead-up to the IPO. An SPV is called a special purpose vehicle, or it stands for a special purpose vehicle. And there were all of these people that wanted to get into SpaceX, but you couldn't get primary shares from the company. So maybe an existing investor wanted to sell a piece of their shares. And so you were able to basically free ride or not free ride. It was a transaction.

You were able to get some of their shares into this different fund. And you would raise money from people. and you would buy a piece of their fund. And then it became like a Russian, is it a Russian egg doll, right? A Russian doll. Why did I say egg doll? I don't know the egg thing came from.

A Russian doll where people were then selling pieces of their SPV. And it became this whole convoluted thing where it was scary because like the investors couldn't even prove that they held underlying shares that they actually had exposure. And so one of the horror stories came to light in the Wall Street Journal. They said that, so they highlighted some poor guy who put $17,000 into one of these SPVs in 2020.

He thought it would be worth $300,000 at the IPO, a life-changing amount of money, thought it was going to be able to send his kids to college. Turns out that the investment company sold it in 2024. His stake was worth $45,000. Now, a good return, but that's not the point. If you thought that you were going to get $300,000 and you got $45, it's a catastrophe. Was the guy who ran the investment company, your friend who sold your Nick's tickets before the finals? Because it sounds like the same guy.

Brutal. A private offshore in invests, so this is from the journal. A private offshore investment firm based in the Bahamas called Capital Truth acquired a portion of an SPV that owned pre-IPO SpaceX shares. It then appears to have repackaged the interests and sold them on to late stage, according to court documents and lawyers. So late stage was the company based in New Jersey, huge red flag. No offense to New Jersey. If you can't trust a company based in New Jersey or the Bahamas called Capital Truth, who can you trust? But the horrible thing is like, obviously these are unsuspecting investors.

How did they know? They're getting swindled. So this person that they profiled fielded dozens of congratulations. text messages, according to the journal, from friends who knew about a space system investment. He was, he was bragging to everyone. Dude, of course. I mean, yeah, duh, that's what you do. This is, right?

Like, you can't, I wouldn't be able to keep that to myself. Oof. Brutal. He went out to dinner to celebrate. Just absolutely fucking horrible. I hope these people go to jail. And speaking of, speaking of this, they did a real wolf of Wall Street documentary on Amazon, a three-parter. And it was great.

I thought. Did you watch it? I did not. I just, I hate Jordan Belfort. I hate that guy. What a... I think he's such a scumbag that I don't want to give him any of my attention. Fair. What a piece of garbage. I mean, obviously, the Wolf of Wall Street, the movie,

I don't know that it glamorized him per se. I mean, I don't think he made him look like a good guy, but they did nothing to talk about the crimes that he committed and all of the victims. And in this one... That was why I didn't care for it as much as most people. I just felt I felt gross watching it. Yeah. Well, even still, Jordan is talking about how he's a redemption story and the comeback and no remorse.

So one of his, no remorse. One of his best friends, I think the guy that was who Jonah Hill played, I can't remember exactly, daughter died of leukemia and Jordan didn't send, like didn't, no text message, no, nothing. Just a world-class scumbag. Yeah. I'm sure it's entertaining, though. All right, bars are giving up on young people, Ben. On a recent Friday night, there's also from the Washington Journal.

On a recent Friday night, Philadelphia's trestle in. Welcome to the crowd for a Prince-themed dance party. Revelers rocking purple eye shadow and love symbols, slurped down the whiskey showers and lit up the dance floor while the go-go dancer gyrated to hits like, Let's Go Crazy. And 1999, almost everyone was over 50. Well, obviously. So the bar owner said, we realized that the younger generation weren't drinking

as much and these early parties were a way to get older folks in the door. The bars have a new favorite customer, the Gen Xer. It makes sense. So Derek Thompson on Plain English last week had a story about how marijuana use on a daily basis is now more than alcohol use. Probably for the first time in history. It's pretty crazy. To me, this is a catastrophe.

So I was a huge, huge pothead growing up. And it literally, and now I know I'm an extreme example of this, but it literally, really ruined my life. Now, I have an addictive personality. I am like, I am like, Richard Lewis, who is an alcoholic drinking champagne. You're like, how do you even get to that point? So I smoked way, way, way, way too much. And I once heard Elon Musk describe marijuana as coffee in reverse. And that's what it is. At least that's what it is for me. When you're a young, when you're a young guy, you just sit there and play video games all day, right? Yeah, it is a demotivator.

So there's some people that are functioning potheads. I get it, right? But let's assume that most people are not bad. The fact that young, that there's 21 million people, oh, wait, hold on, is this young people? It's a lot of people regardless, but every day. Oh, this is, yeah, this is everyone. And Derek's point was, yeah, this is marijuana actually makes sense for this moment because people are more anxious and using it as an anxiety sort of medication, if you call it that,

but it's also for people who want to stay in and don't want to be social. And that's the point. Like it is the antisocial drug. And you mentioned the demotivator. And obviously there's people who just do gummies and they use it, help them sleep or whatever. And whatever. Well, I was about to say that. In fairness, it's not like when we were, when we were potts and we were just taking bonkets all day, like complete morons. People are, people are like much more responsible today. They're taking tiny doses. They're taking it to fall asleep. It's not like everybody's walking around stoned all day, but that is a wild number. Yeah, but it seems like a lot of people have traded the negative physical effects of alcohol for the negative, they're giving up on

that, they're trading it for mental health negative effects. That's where we've, that's where we've gotten. Alcohol just does make you more social. It just does. I'm, I'm a very introverted person. I probably took it way too far and like when I went to college, but it helped me, like, Be more extroverted. Of course it does. So when Ben and I are pounding the table for young people to get out there and drink, I'm not saying like, hey, listen, young people. Yeah, we're not saying that.

Stay at home and drink a bottle of vodka. Obviously, we're not saying that. Get out there. Be social. Get a life. Go have a drink. Meet somebody. Talk to a human being.

I do think whenever I go to a big city, it seems like young people are doing this still. I know that the bars are saying it's, I don't know where. But when you go to New York and Chicago in places, there's still young people out of the bars, right? Yeah. We were out of the bars last week. We saw young people. Yeah.

This is a good from Bank of America. It's funny. If you talk about the unemployment rate today, people will say, yeah, but what about the labor force participation ratio? Right? If you look at it, like for older people, it's falling. And they use that as a sign of this is a bad thing. So the labor force participation rate for 55 plus is dropping

at a massive rate. It gets down a lot in the last year and a half or so. And Bank of America says, no, no, no, no. This is not a bad thing. This is not a sign of people who are giving up on the workforce. This is a sign of people who have a lot more money than they thought they would, and they're retiring early. My house is worth way more.

My stock portfolio is worth way more. My business is worth way more. I'm out. There's a lot of people who are retiring early right now. This is a massive drop. It's fantastic. Here's a companion chart also from Bank of America. their average 401K balance is now $160,000,

it was $100,000 in 2023. God knows what it was in 2017. The stock market is fundamentally changing our country. And hallelujah. It is. Now, the thing that people would tell you is just wait. What happens on this? I understand.

I do think whenever the next recession hits, and let's say we get a 30% bare market, and it lasts for 15 months instead of three. I am fascinated to see what the reaction is going to be. Like, will we get... Which reaction? The narrative, or the spending? The sentiment, like, will...

Everything. Will we get... The next recession, will it kind of be like inflation where the sentiment turns so, so sour because we haven't experienced it in so long? Like, I think the sentiment is... What are we talking about? We just did that.

Did what? We just had a bare market that lasted 15 months. Yeah, we didn't have a recession. I think the recession piece in people losing their jobs is what's going to really tip true, true, true, true. Yeah. Well, you know what? Just wait.

I reject that. You know why? If somebody has enough money to retire because the stock market out kicked its coverage for what their expectations were, you think there are 100% in stocks? No dummy. Right. Exactly. They shouldn't be, that's for sure.

All right. Opinion piece from Bloomberg. We would be in a recession without AI. Obviously, this is not even, like, controversial. Virtually nothing matters more to markets are present than the AI buildout. It's such a sudden massive stimulus for the U.S. that it has shifted macro-accomic data.

This professor from Columbia School of Business argues that, without it, U.S. would be in a recession. He estimates AI infrastructure investment at roughly 2.8% of GDP, larger than the railroad boom, and is projected to keep rising. here's the problem of this, though, when you think about it this way. Like, if we just took AI out, the economy, like, this money would have been used for something else.

It goes to other places. Yes. This is like, okay, the Knicks, maybe this is a bad example, but just go with me. Jalen Brunson is not playing. If the Knicks score 110 points a game and Jalen scores 27 points a game, now they're going to score 87 or whatever the number is, right? Like, all right, no, the points go somewhere else. Yeah. So, yes, the Knicks are worse off without Jalen and the economy would be worse off without

AI. But it's not a, it's not a linear decline. Come on. It wouldn't be a hole. Like, take that hole out and then there's nothing there. Okay. And also in fairness, I do think that there's a decent, probably, I would say better than 50-50 chance that the economy would be in a recession without AI.

I do think that if it weren't for this, given higher interest rates and everything else, we have, I don't think we would have been able to observe all of that without the magic of this, this, uh, cycle. And if you listed what will the reason be for the next recession, I would put AI as like 80% favorites. Yeah. Like the odds on it would be, you wouldn't be able to, you wouldn't want to take those because AI has to be the, the, the reason for the next. All right.

I think the, the PR people are out and full force and they're realizing it. So Mark Zuckerberg, who he's another one that I read. the book that the social network was based on. Ben Mesrick wrote this book. I think it's called the young millionaires or something like that. It was the book that was, and I read it before, like, he really was huge in the zeitgeist and popular. So I read this back in, I don't know what it came out, the mid-early 2000, like 2007, probably I read this, 2008. And here's another one. I'm just like, God, he's such a slime ball. And I feel like I've kind of underestimated him ever since because of what I read about him in that book and how he acted in college, you know.

but one thing that he has done really... Let's not judge people's character based on how they behave in college. That's fair. Well, he did screw over at water pretty bad. But I think one thing that he's done over time is he is just a chameleon to whatever is going on at the moment. He knows how to shape shift and do what he has to do.

So he wrote this whole piece about how the future is for everyone, the path to a positive AI future. So he's trying to say like, hey, all right, let's take a step back and look at the positives of AI, because obviously the negativity is growing. He says, it is surprising that the discourse from many developing AI is so filled with doom.

I do not understand why anyone who believes that AI will eliminate most jobs in much of humanity's relevance would rush to build that future. Like he's saying the right thing that should have been said from the beginning. And then he says, all right, let's talk about what AI will do for you in the future.

That will be positive and not focus on the negatives. And this isn't like groundbreaking stuff, but I think this is probably the stuff that he wants to do with meta. So he says, everyone has a personal agent that understands you, your goals, and everything you care about.

24-7, work on your behalf. Everyone has a personalized tutor and coach with a PhD in every subject. I think that's like a positive thing we could say for our children, hopefully. Right? And he says everyone will have free or affordable access to these tools.

Now, this is the part where it probably gets kind of tricky for these companies. If everyone has access to free or affordable access, like who's, is it just going to be the top 5% of people paying for all the tokens? Is that like the hope that it's going to be the people who are so overly reliant

and that's going to subsidize everyone else? Why? There are people who just won't, because he's saying everyone will have free or affordable access to these tools. He's saying, listen, if we want this to work and help people, this has got to be cheap for the masses. There has to be a free option available for people to use this. It is cheap for the masses.

First of all, there's a free version. And how much does chat? 20 bucks a month? For the paid version, that's Netflix. But don't you think? There's some people who just won't pay for it. So? Don't you think?

There's a free version. All right. He's saying, like, we need to have a free... Anyway, worth a read, but the PR departments have obviously figured out, like, guys, we have to spin this more positively. And guess what? I think it's probably too late for that positive spin. I agree. Ben, Duncan tells us it's a Russian nesting doll.

So I don't know where egg came from, but it's not egg. It's nesting. You gave it your best job. All right. So I think for probably once or twice a year when I come to New York, you do a good job of getting us comedy tickets and going to the comedy seller. And that's my favorite neighborhood. The West Village is my favorite neighborhood in New York. I love going there.

I love the bars and restaurants and walking around and the vibe and the energy. And so we went to the comedy seller. You and Chris and I, we had great seats. Perfect location up on the ledge a little bit. and as most comics do, they rip on the people in the front row. Like, I don't know if I'd want to sit in the front row at a lot of count, because you know you're going to get rid of con. And a lot of people, that's their schick, is, hey, where are you from?

What do you do? Hey, are you two dating? What's your story? And so there was a guy who was enjoying himself in the front row, mid-20s probably, and one of the comics said, what do you do? You know, he said, I work for Nvidia. And the comic goes, without missing a beat, goes, what is that? TVs?

and you and I are the only ones in the whole audience who started laughing because we, and no one else got, you and are the only ones who thought this was funny that the guy who works for Nvidia, who was putting a fair number of drinks back and enjoying himself to the point where the comedians really couldn't understand what you was saying.

I think he was probably celebrating his stock options. And the comedian didn't, and then he said, well, she said, wait, what is that again? And he said, oh, like, AI. She said, oh, data centers, and then people started booing, kind of. Oh, really? She was like, oh, yeah, you didn't catch that? She was kind of like, oh, she kind of like gave it a negative.

But that just got me thinking that, okay, this still has a long way to go. If people still don't know the biggest company in the world, $5 trillion company who's helping build AI, we got a long way to go. Is that a fair anecdote? Perhaps. I don't know. Maybe I'm getting too cute. We're gauging the market by the comedy seller. You know, maybe should you and I step outside our comfort zone one time and sit in the front?

I don't think I would enjoy it. I was too much anxiety for that. It's a lot, right? Someone did call you a JV wrestling coach once at a comedy show. A gym teacher. Oh, Jim teacher, okay. That was a... Hey, last week I made a comment about our audience being more tuned into the market

than the average citizen. And we got a bunch of people saying, I actually don't really like check the market in my portfolio all that much. I listen to you guys. And I'm sure it's a mixed bag of people that listen. Some people are watching. We've heard from people that say like, listen, I outsource my news to you. And if it's in the news, you guys are going to cover it.

Great. I love it. Love to hear it. So I got me the thinking. How often do you check your portfolio, the balance of your portfolio? And I will set the over under at, I will set. the over under at every two weeks. And I would probably say, I would probably say the over as meaning like less frequently than that. So every three weeks, every month. Every six months, I update a

spreadsheet that has all of our accounts on it, right? You are such a boomer. Retirement accounts. You know, we have technology for that, right? You know, we're, we run a RIA. We could, we could, we could take care of you for that. I do. I still update it manually every six months. But I don't do it if it's a bare market. I do not look at my account if it's a bear market because I don't want to know. I know what they are, but I don't.

So I'd say like our Porterhouse strategy, I check that occasion. But I feel like for me, that's more thinking through clients. That's different. Because that's for clients. Okay. So then once every three months. Holy shit. Because I know in the back of my head, I can do the math.

On the back of the envelope, I know what it is. I don't need to constantly see the number and see it moving. I practice what I preach here, man. The more often you look, the more pain you're going to have. And you are better off for it. How often do you do it? Once a week, once a day? Once a day.

That's it? Come on. Those are rookie numbers. Yeah, no, all the time. Way, way, way more often than I should. I mean, because also I'm picking, I'm picking stocks. I'm having a good time. I'm doing what you're not supposed to be doing.

Yeah, now that I do, but yeah, you only pay attention to that one, that one party for portfolio when you're picking stock. You know what I am? You know the story about the husband and wife are at a blackjack table. They're playing cards and they go off on their separate way. And he said, it's how'd you do? And she goes, I lost $200 bucks. He goes, $200.

How do you lose $200? And she said, well, how much, how did you do? How did you do? I lost $1,000. You lost $1,000. You're yelling at me that I lost $200. And he said, yeah, but I know how to gamble. Right. That's me. I like it. Thank you. One more thing on the gambling stuff, Ben. There was an article, again, in the Walshoe Journal with the headline, the live shopping app where some people bid until they're broke. You know about these things? No. This is some real predatory shit. All right. Here's the lead.

One Harding downloaded whatnot, a live shopping app after rekindling his childhood baseball card collecting hobby. Within four months, the 45-year-old accountant had spent almost $1.4 million from his savings, his personal loans, money borrowed from a friend, and finally from his employer company's credit card. Holy shit. When his wife discovered the full tally, she filed for a divorce, he said, I just kept telling myself one more time than I'd sell it all and they'd call my money back,

but it was so easy to just swipe right. Oh, this poor bastard. I don't know what this is. So this is a shopping app where you could buy, it's like an auction. So it's possible that you buy an IMac computer for $11 because you just so happen to like, whatever, the auction runs out. And like there's all these anomalies that they highlight, that they advertise. You can buy this for this. And they put people in.

I mean, this, there's nobody winning here. This should just be illegal. So what did he spend all his money on that? What did he get? Clicks, nothing. Nothing. He's gambling that he's going to be able to buy an item for 80% less than it's worth and then resell it. And if you don't get it, you don't get anything.

Nothing. Wow. Gross, right? I mean, listen, I'm a capitalist. I love companies, people making money. This is not that. This is disgusting. But, I mean, if this guy did all this and he put it on his, he borrowed money for a friend and he put on his employer credit card, he was going to do something like this eventually.

Okay. There is obviously the personal responsibility angle, of course. Yeah. But this is just predatory behavior. It's true. That's a, I didn't realize that that's how those things work. All right. Connor Sen has a new substack called the housing frames.

So when we're writing about housing and how it relates to the economy. He says his first post is the housing recession is over. I thought this was interesting. He looked back at other lengthy housing recession. He said, listen, since the first quarter of 2022, we've had a housing recession. That's almost half a decade. He said, we had one from 1979 to 1982 in the Fed nuke the economy with tight money for four years. We had another one from 1988 to 1991, which was a savings in loan crisis in the Gulf War.

And then the Great Recession, of course, lasted six years, 2006, 2011. Here's the interesting thing, though. So he's saying, like, four years ago, homebuilder. pulled back, apartment development slumped, number of homes for sales surge in places that boomed the most during the pandemic housing frenzy. And he's saying, he thinks it's over, like we're getting some signs of activity. The crazy thing to me is this, this has absolutely been a housing. If you worked in a housing industry, this has been brutal for you. In a loan department, as a realtor, like, this has been rough. The Case Schiller National Home Price Index is up

almost 12% since the first quarter of 2022. So during a housing recession, housing prices still rose almost 12%. Now, you could say, well, inflation was up even a little more than that. So on a real basis, but still, this is, but I think people assumed that the great recession, housing recession, like that was the baseline to think through, housing prices just don't fall very often. It just, even those other ones, 1979 to 1982, housing prices were up. Oh, wow. Right.

So like, in most housing recessions, housing prices still rise. And the supply demand of balance is permanent. there's what, 70 million people between 37 and 39 years old or something like that. Right. And the boomers just aren't selling their houses. Exactly. So this is not going to get fixed. It's awful.

And obviously, we're not figuring out ways to build more homes either. It just seems like that ship, for whatever reason, has sailed. And even if we did decide, it would take so long to do, who knows how long it would take to actually matter for young people. Right. Let's do some quarter stuff. So SpaceX reported. And here's a quote from Elon Musk. If you have a mass accelerated on the moon and you have solar and radiator production on the moon,

you can, I know this sounds totally nuts, but you can probably scale to a thousand times of the economy of the Earth in terms of intelligence, the launch of space, probably maybe even a million times. Okay. You know the problem with you, the hard part of Elon Musk, like if you listen to a technology person, they'll say, hey, never bet against Elon Musk. Look what he's done. He created this EV company. He can have rockets that take off and land.

but he also says so many things that just don't come true. So it's really hard to know. He's made a million promises, right? Remember he was going to have that hyperloop thing? I'm going to create tunnels underneath cities and we're going to go back and forth and it's going to be so fast. And there's so many things he's promised that haven't happened.

Okay, I love this. I am not an Elon Musk fanboy, but I love this attitude of, yeah, we can do anything. as crazy as it sounds, this insane entrepreneurial spirit to move the world forward, advanced technology that sounds science fiction and sounds totally fucking insane. I love it. I love that there's people out there like this that are just pushing the boundaries of what sounds like something that you would giggle at, you know?

It would be cool to have the view of Earth from the moon. Like you've lived on the moon. Every morning you wake up and see the Earth. That's a good view, right? I would yeah it's great for you beautiful uh all right let's do it doesney real quick so this blew my face off ben toy story does one billion dollars in annual global retail sales geez isn't my kids really like the new movie i didn't see it my kids loved it it was excellent uh they estimate it's done 16 billion dollars in income for disney the toy story

franchise. All right. So here we go. They're a company with a bigger monopoly where the stock has stunk more than Disney. Disney has a huge monopoly. Oh, on theme parks? Theme parks and just brand branding. Disney has a huge branding monopoly and the stock stinks.

No, they don't. They don't have a brand monopoly. Well, not maybe monopoly is the wrong way to say it. They're just, the reach of their brand has to be about as strong as anyone that there is. And the stock stinks. Total revenue grew 7% 11% revenue growth at the parks and experiences, which is kind of nuts considering how expensive it is. They keep raising prices and people seem to keep going. And it's accelerating.

So they haven't had growth like this in a long time at the parks. This is confusing. This quarter, we pass an important milestone in app unification allowing Hulu standalone and bundle subscribers to link profiles. So this is like getting really annoying with my own app. How hard is this? I guess it's harder than you would think. So if you log it through Hulu and Disney, they don't sync with each other. So if you're watching, I don't know, what's a Hulu show right now?

Let's say you're watching Tires, whenever that comes out. Wait, is Tires, Netflix? Let's say you're watching the bear on Hulu and then you try and watch it on Disney. They don't talk to each other. Crazy. Crazy town. Oh, you're right. That's right.

He doesn't pick up where you left off on one of the other. By the way, I finished the bear finding. I didn't mind. The last three episodes were actually pretty decent. The last two seasons didn't need to happen, but they finished it okay.

Did you finish House of the Dragon? We got one more episode. Finished it last night that I listened to House of R with the great Chris Ryan, Joanna, and Mallory. And I had,

it's like they're watching a different show. And. Because they're so into it or what? No, no, no. Because I am such a, I am such a moron. It's like I'm watching a different show.

How about that? They're watching different show. I'm watching, I have no, I still have no idea what's happening. I might as just as the biggest dumbass in the world. I cannot follow this show for the life of me. I feel like you need a flow chart for every one of those episodes. But even hearing them discuss, I'm like, yeah, I'm still lost. Now, that being said, I enjoyed the shit out of it.

It was great TV. It's entertaining, yeah. Great TV. It feels like Game of Thrones kind of. One last thing on Disney. This was the most watched Q3 for ESP. ESPN, ESPN 2, and ESPN on ABC since 2016, which is kind of insane. Is that...

Is that your Knicks or what? Well, the finals were huge. There was only five games, though. Is it also... Did they have the World Cup? Oh, that was probably part of it. I thought Fox had the World Cup. I don't know.

All right, Ben, we got a lot of emails about this. So you were mentioning Spider-Man, bemoaning the fact that they just won't stop. A lot of people agreed with me. There's a lot of other Spider-Man haters out there. I wasn't a huge fan of the last one where they brought in Garfield, Toby, and Holland. I thought that was not for me. But basically, Sony has to keep making these movies. Otherwise, the rights revert back to Marvel.

And I don't know what the timeline is, but they're not going to stop. So get used to it. By the way, I have a Spider-Man hot take. Go ahead. Zendaya is like the biggest actress alive right now. she does nothing for me. She, every movie she's in, she doesn't do anything. Like in Dune and in Odyssey, her character was,

her characters don't do anything. They just stand there. Like, she doesn't move the ball forward at all. Like in the Odyssey, she didn't need to be a character. Why didn't she play a better role in the, like... Okay, counterpoint. Hot take, she's overrated. I'm just saying.

No, she's not. Tom Holland is too. Okay. The drama? Did she do nothing? in that movie, too? Okay, I still don't believe her. You're right.

She was good in the drama. I liked her in the drama and what's the tennis one? The tennis one. She was fantastic in that. But she should stop doing this. She should stop doing Spider-Man and the Odyssey. Like, she does nothing in those movies. She should actually keep doing these smaller movies.

I'm a Zendaya fan. David O'Rossils, Madden, is, this is variety, is skipping a nationwide theatrical release. Nicholas Cage stars as the legendary American football. coach and sports commentator John Madden opposite Christian Bale, Catherine Hahn, John Malaney, Sienna, and Shane Gillis.

Holy shit, but is this movie going to absolutely suck shit? They're not giving a release. Did you see the preview for it? No. You know I raw dog these things. I mean, whatever. I know the story here, but it looked like a straight to streaming video movie. Okay. Nicholas Cage as John Madden. Are we kidding?

There's no way that's going to be good. No way. He doesn't have that kind of rain. What does this time? David Russell had a good movie. Let's see. Oh, you liked American Hustle. I hated that movie. Oh, yeah, I thought it was very disappointing. Amsterdam bombed.

I didn't see that one. Several lines playbook. What was the Philadelphia sports one with Bradley Cooper? It's probably that one. Several learning's playbook. Yeah. That was a good one. All right, year-to-day box office through August 9th.

Andrews-Cardy shared this with us. Highest in, highest since post-pandemic. We had the CEO of Rich Gelfand on yesterday on Josh and I, did on TCAF for IMAC? Did you ask them why they can't build new theaters? You know, I didn't press him hard enough on that. I should have.

He gave the same answer that we've heard. Listen, the truth, it's expensive, and a lot of people don't want to make the investment and, you know, et cetera, et cetera. Things look very good now. It makes no sense to me. Why? Because they're doing so well, you'd think they would want to do more. I really don't get it.

It's not, it's maybe not repeatable. It's not guaranteed. this is a really hot year for movies. All right. All right, Ben. I've got a few stories. I know it's a long-ass episode, so forgive me. Although maybe you like, maybe you like us and like sticking around for the long ones.

You know the, you know, in I Love You Man when Paul Rudd calls Jason Ziegle Jobin? Of course. And he just like, his brain just breaks. Yeah. By the way, I saw a rush. and Paul Rudd and Jason Seagull doing the slap in the bass at the rush concert was just dead on. Nothing but people playing the air instruments. Saw air drum, air guitar, air piano.

That movie just makes me smile. The best. All right. So anyway, I was walking to the train station. I had a bag in my hand. It was heavier than I expected. I was sweating. Stopped at Starbucks.

was hoping somebody would, I would see somebody who could give me a ride. Sure enough, guy from the neighbor that I'm friendly with pulls up. And he said, a point he says, need a ride. I said, yeah, saddle me. And he walks away into Starbucks. And I'm like, what the fuck? Saddle me? That's like not even close to anything.

He said saddle me. So. It sounds like an innuendo of some sort. So we got at the car And he goes Hey, did you say saddle me? That's the best part of I love you, man, is he calls him out on it.

Yeah, so this guy called me. I'm like, I don't know. I don't know, man, I don't want to tell you. I'm my brain broke for a second. I got one more for you. Remember last week on the show, we were talking about how you have,

you are more OCD brain where if there's something, something that needs to be done, you just get it done. All right, I'm the opposite. So I bought a green light for my backyard. The green light is you drop it in the water and it lights up and you see all the fish swam by and the kids like that.

Oh, we had that in Florida. My son loved it because the fish would come up at night. That's when you go fishing at night. It's great. Yeah. So I've had this thing in my backyard. It's been to the package for three weeks. And Robin keeps by, could you just, what do you just plug it in and put it in the water?

What are you doing? So I finally got around to it. I lubed it up, lathered it and vassoline because apparently that keeps it brighter and it keeps like the, seaweed off of it. Oh, okay. So I lubed it up. I plugged it in and I threw it into the water. But what I didn't do, Ben, was I didn't unravel the wires.

So I plugged it in and I threw it in and the wire came out of just like right to the bottom. And Robin's like, you're the fucking dumbest person I've ever met in my life. So you've got another one. I think I could get it. Eventually. It's one down there. All right. Put in your scuba here

and go get it. Can I just say one more thing? This might not, this might sound mean-spirited. Sorry, I can't help it. It irks me. Is whistling the most annoying thing ever? People who whistle. Amen.

There's a guy in my gym who whistles the entire time he's in the locker room. He doesn't stop whistling. Come on. I feel like if you're by yourself, if you can whistle, if you're by other people, you can't whistle. You just can't do it. It's very annoying. Highly irritating. Yes.

It's like you can't really tell somebody to stop because it's such like a, it's like such a dickhead thing. Like, hey, hey, you mind. You want to tell him to stop. Hey, do me a favor? Could you knock it off? Yes. Whistling in your own head? I agree.

Email from a listener. Ben, I had a question for you based on something you said years ago. It was at the height of the pandemic. You said you were never going to wear a tie again. Since work dress code has changed so much than the pandemic, it seemed like a good prediction. I'm curious if you kept your prediction and also have not worn a tie since the pandemic. Great timing.

This question just came in yesterday. I wore my first tie since the pandemic this past weekend. But I was forced to see. Where were you? Okay, so Grand Hotel, Macon Island. This is the only, my face is not the greatest in that picture. This is the only one I could find with me and sitting next to my brother along the porch.

Grand Hotel has been around since the 1800s in Mackin Island. Macon Island is this little island between the Upper Peninsula, the Lower Peninsula. You have to take a ferry to get there. It's very touristy. There's a lot of fudge and ice cream and shop. restaurants, but this hotel has been there since the 1800s, and they kept it up, and it's like a time capsule. Remember in midnight in Paris when Owen Wilson goes back in time to like the 1920s?

Never saw it. Okay, I love that movie. It feels like you're going back in time at this place, but they have rules still at 630. If you're walking through the lobby and you're staying there, all men have to have a sport coat on. Women have to look down. You have to drive. And at dinner, there's one, the main room they have dinner. you have to, if you're a man,

you have to have a sport coat and a tie-on. I kind of like that. Yeah, huh. And honestly, at night, the place was great. Everyone was dressed up. It felt like an actual, like, event. It was, like, it, like, and I thought, like, we're a nation of slabs now.

This is one of the worst outcomes of the pandemic that I get it. Everyone's more comfortable. But we're just, in the past, people used to dress up and go on planes. Now, everyone is a slob. Everyone wears PJs everywhere. Like, it felt nice to have everyone

dressed up again, and I liked it. So that was my time wearing a tie. Hmm. You're very nice. For a time in a while. All right, I've got a bunch in the recommendation section this week. Let's start with this. I tease this to you.

I'm confused by the concept of Westerns as a genre, and this hit me. I was watching. My dad recommended a movie that I didn't really care for. Well, I didn't finish it, but I think I got far enough. I don't really understand this take. Like, you don't like Westerns? No, no, no. Although, I actually don't love Westerns.

I'm being honest. I don't hate them. There's just, you know, not in my top 20. What was the name of this old Henry? Did you see this? No. All right, whatever. It's a Western. My take is this. I'm not hating on Westerns. I'm just confused by Westerns as a concept because a Western really isn't necessarily a genre of movies like horror is because there can be a comedy Western. There could be a drama Western. There could be a horror. Did I say horror already? There can be all sorts of different types of Western. It's a setting. It's a setting. Yeah. It's a setting as a style of movies. But there's not like ocean movies or desert movies. It's just kind of interesting when you think about it.

Right. It's a time. It's a time piece. But for some reason it works because it's like there's outlaws and there's no rules and all right. I don't have any other period or or location genres is all. Just it occurs. Fair. All right. This is another. I saw this. I was like, wait.

So I'm scrolling for movies the other night. Robin was out, whatever night it was. I was by myself. And I'm scrolling. And I come across a movie called The Return with Ray Fines. I'm guessing you've never heard of this. No. Let me read you the intro or the description.

Tell me if this sounds a bit familiar, Ben. This movie is two years old. After 20 years away, Odysseus washes up on the shores of Ithaca, Hagrid and Unrecognizable. The king finds much has changed since he left to fight in the Trojan War. His beloved wife Penelope is a prisoner in her own home and hounded to choose a new husband. Their son faces death at the hands of suitors or see him as an obstacle in the pursuit of Penelope in the kingdom. Odysseus is no longer the mighty.

All right, you get the point. I saw this. I said, Wow. Are you fucking kidding me? Ray Fines, one of the best actors ever, did this movie two years ago and it gross three and a half million dollars. And it got decent reviews on the tomatoes. And Christopher Nolan comes over the top billion dollars.

Isn't that wild? Was it any good? I don't think I'm going to watch it. I thought you're going to watch it. It's pretty hard to watch after the fact now, right? Right. But what would be the point? Yeah.

True. All right. I do have a few actual recommendations. She read Shotgun. Have we heard of this? No. There was a, it's not really a U movie. It's like a great airplane movie.

It's gritty and it's grimy. An ex-convict goes to get his daughter, takes her away. They're on the lamb, Ben, as you like to say. I like him. You do like that guy, right? You're an Edgerton guy. Not Joel, the other guy. Are they related?

I don't think so. Okay. Good movie. The Kenny G. documentary was hilarious. It's on Max. It felt similar to the Out Rock Doc because it's made by the same, same, same group. And I never really thought about Kenny G before.

He's just always been in my life, as I'm sure he's always been in your life, as this guy. I love putting Kenny G on. And we had family dinner with my dad, low up and Kenny G on the background. Yeah, it was in the 90s. But it's like weird because he's like a global phenomenon. And you spend, you probably spend zero time thinking about him, other than the fact, like he's sort of a joke and people make fun of him and whatever because he's cheesy and corny.

And I love that guy. Great vibes. In on the joke. has a beautiful sound. He still his hair. That was awesome. All the hair. And he's a Jew.

Of course he's Jewish. I had no idea. His name is like whatever. He's a Jewish guy from Seattle. I didn't know that either. Okay. I mean, he looks at. A lot of stuff I didn't know from your recommendation.

He's got the long Jew fro. Anyway, I enjoyed the show of that. And then lastly, actually, two more. I'm sorry. The Westies. The Westies is a damn fine show. Again, it's on MGM Plus. I spoke about us a few weeks ago.

J.K. Simmons is ahead of the Irish Mafia and he's going head to head with, with, my God, my brain is breaking. Gotty. I have every streaming service on the planet. I'm not going to slum it with MGM Plus. I appreciate that you like this show. I'm not going to MGM Plus. Sorry.

Okay. I'm not alone. I'm not alone. We got a few emails about it when I mentioned it. All right. Dozens of you. Lastly, Ben, you're going to like this. You're going to like this a lot.

I watched. So instead of watching, instead of watching the return with Ray Fines, I watched to live and die in L.A. And I'm saying, huh,

why have I heard of this movie before? They did it on the rewatchables a few months ago. And I didn't listen because I didn't, man, I missed it. And,

uh, it's a classic, classic 80s movie. And I thought to myself, hey, you know what? I actually never seen that one either. You would love it.

Okay. Remember a couple of years ago, I said the 80s movies don't hold a candle to the 90s. In fact, 80s movies are trash. And I think I used Top Gun as a jumping off point for that. Like, what a silly, stupid movie, right? 80s, kind of like, 80s are like Westerns. They're their own genre. Right?

Like, it's a complete time capsule. 80s movies are different. 90s movies are more modern and they hold up. Like, I think a 90s movie in 50 years will still be a Terminator 2 will still be an awesome movie. whereas Top Gun or any of these other movies, it's like, what the hell was happening? Well, well, Top Gun? Hey, take it easy.

I'm just saying the 80s movies as a collective, you'd be like, this is weird. Like, what was happening in the 80s? So I'm taking, so the 80s movies have grown on me over the years as I've seen more and more of them. I've filled in my portfolio. I grew up in the 80s, so I love them all. But I'm still saying that if you hold them next to the 90s,

they still don't hold the candle. And if you were to break it down, not just by like the top 100, but genre by genre, In the 90s, like across the board is better, but I have a better appreciation for 80s movies than I did a couple years ago. Good. Good for you.

All right. I don't have as many as you. Furious on Hulu. My wife and I love it. Very good. It's got a lot of stuff going on. Emmy Rawson is really good in it. I know her from Shameless, which is a show that was on, was it on Showtime?

Was it on, HBO? It was on, like, for like, 11 seasons. William H. Macy was on at the guy from the bear. Yeah. It probably showed on a five. It was a five-season show, it would have been awesome. But it stayed on for way too long. But I loved that show at the beginning.

It's overstated as welcome. She's really good in it. And it's about a serial killer, but it's also about human trafficking and domestic abuse and cops and FBI. And there's a lot going on. And I'm here for it. I think it's very high quality. So I watched the first episode because I heard

CR and Andy raving about it. and it's okay. I like, I'm really into it. I like it. I think it's very well done. And finally, the talented of Mr. Ripley is speaking of 90s movies. One of my favorite most rewatchable 90s movies. I love rewatching it in the summer. It's like you transported into this place.

And I feel like if you were to pick a movie character that you could trade lives with for like a day, you'd pick Jude Law on that. He's living in this little town in Italy, right? And like, dress is nice. And anyway. And then I watch Ripley on Netflix. But then I finally read the original book by Patricia Highsmith.

I think there's like five of them. And I can't believe how well the book aged. The book is still, it felt like it was something that could have been written today, just taking away the technology. It was so good. They made a book out of that? Yeah, weird, huh?

Yeah, that's one of my favorite lines ever. Go ahead, I'm sorry. They made a book out of that movie? Anyway, very well done. I liked it. I'm going to read the rest of the books now. Is Ripley on Netflix worth watching? Was it a series on Netflix?

was it on. I can't remember. It's a mini series. I really liked it. And that series is more closely aligned to the book than the movie is. The movie they made some different choices, which I liked the choices they made, but they veered away from the book in a lot of ways. Anyway, good stuff. All right. We did it. Oh, wait. One less thing. I almost forgot. Lioness. Holy shit, what a show. Unbelievable. He's done it again. Taylor Sheridan. Not to it out of the park. Okay. I never got it out. Episodes one and two are out. So good. Not for you? Do you don't like CIA, FBI, well, the type shows? I feel a lot of it's been done.

I'm watching, curious. So it's an FBI show. All right. Email us, Animal Spirits at the Compound News.com. Thanks to the production team, as always. Duncan's making sure we know what a Russian nesting doll is. I think this is our longest episode ever. Possibly.

We had 45 pages in the dock. Thanks to everyone for listening. Appreciate it. See you next time.