Animal Spirits Podcast - Is a Recession Bullish? (EP.275)

Episode Date: September 21, 2022

On today's episode we recap our experience at Future Proof, interest rates vs. inflation for the stock market, a blow-off top in short-term rates, what could cause international stocks to outperform, housing inflation, why the housing market is broken, George Clooney's best movie and much more.   Find complete shownotes on our blogs...  Ben Carlson’s A Wealth of Common Sense  Michael Batnick’s The Irrelevant Investor  Like us on Facebook  And feel free to shoot us an email at [e-mail] with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's Animal Spirits is brought to you by Composer. Michael, I was looking at the different symphonies on Composer today, and came across one that was interesting. I think this is interesting in terms of people who back tests. So it's called Big Tech Momentum. Is there a back test where if you're down 20% they just make you whole? Does that exist? The Fed's supposed to do that, but they haven't decided to step in recently. So you look at this, and it has annualized return on there, and it's almost 30% per year.

And this goes back to like the mid-2010s. What it does is? Who is Composer, for those unfamiliar? Well, I'm going to explain it after I talk about this symphony here. So the way that this symphony works is you pick the two tech stocks. They're all big tech stock names. There's like a pool of eight or ten of them with the best 20-day cumulative return. And then it switches based on which tech stock are doing best.

And I like the fact that on Composer, you can backtest any of your trades you want. It could be individual stocks. It could be ETS. Is that symphony called Mr. Carlson's Opus? Not bad. But right now, the two best tech stocks with the best. 20-day returns are Facebook and PayPal, which is interesting. No way.

But the reason I... Facebook? It's a group of 10 tech stocks. The reason I like to see these is because this strategy, even though it has great long-term returns, is in the midst of like a 50% drawdown. And so the great part of back test is what? What's so funny? You like how I'm cutting you off even during the ad reads?

Yeah, of course. Trust my use to it. But the great thing about these back tests is especially looking at them in real time when bad stuff is happening because it's easy to look at any bad. back test during a bull market. But I think the great thing about Composer is you can look at these back tests now and see what they're performing in real time in a bad market. I think that can help kind of color your people make changes to these kind of strategies because of what's going on now and maybe add a few more risk elements, which you can do. You can add a lot more risk management

on Composure in their symphonies. Where do they do that, Ben? Composer.computer. Trade. And you can actually not only do the back test, which you can do on a lot of other strategies and on other web pages, but with Composer, you can actually invest your money, put your money where your mouth is, open up an account, send them money, create your own symphonies, or use symphonies that other people have created that you want to invest in, manage risk, leverage, all these types of things. So go to Composer.comrade to learn more. If I ever create my own symphony, it's going to be called balding alpha.

It's not bad. Thank you. I like it. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. Michael Battenick and Ben Carlson work for Ritt Holtz Wealth Management. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben or any podcast guests are solely their own opinions

and do not reflect the opinion of Ritt Holt's wealth management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Clients of Ritt Holt's wealth management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Michael, last week we did our first live show. I think the way that podcasts typically work is the podcast that you and I do each week online here like this, it would sound better to people in the finished product when they watch it on YouTube

where they listen to it on their podcast player. But we did a live show. I think that live show probably was better for the people who were there than people who listened to the finished product later. Does that make sense? It makes a lot of stuff. I can't.

I feel like I let you down. I felt terrible about my performance. I couldn't even better to listen to it back. People thought that I was drunk, apparently, in the comments because we had one Miami Vice. But I think... Oh, come on. I think personally, we were just a little hopped up

because there was a crowd there. It was a lot because you and I usually, I know what you think is funny, but now there's a whole other fact that I have to consider. If I made jokes that landed flat, yeah, you have to play to the crowd. And it just threw me for a loop. So I apologize to the regular listeners. But I think the people who were there, it was better for people who were there live because you could interact with a, it was like seeing a movie at a movie theater to use your analogy. I'll just say that I'm pretty confident that it was a subpart performance. So I apologize. We'll do better next time. We'll do better next time.

I thought I don't want to love for the people who were there. It probably didn't sound as good if you weren't there. So that means next year just have to come. So I also thought it was so cool to meet so many listeners and viewers of our show. People came up to us afterwards. They were wearing their Tropical Brothers shirts. They were huge fans. People came who weren't even in the finance world just to meet in an ex post. We took a bunch of pictures with people. We met a lot of people. That part was really cool. Because sometimes it feels, I don't know if it's like this for you. Sometimes I forget there's people on the other end of this thing listening. And it just feels like you and I are talking to each other. And to get to meet so many people who were just from all

different backgrounds, all across the country, came out there to California to see us. I had so much fun at future proof meeting people. And it was just, it was such a fun. It was kind of like, you know when you go on a really great vacation and afterwards, it's bittersweet because you have those great memories. But then you leave and you're also like, oh, man, I wish we could have extended that a little. That was future proof for me. I don't know if I'm a crazy person or this just really exposes my nature that I am not a warrior, which I'm very thankful for. You don't get to choose your personality. I am not a warrior. There was never a dad in my mind that this thing was going to go off well, not because I'm a crazy, arrogant person. I just, we've worked with

this group before. I know they're great. I knew people would come. I had not a care in the world that this thing would go up without a hitch. When you told me that the day you got there and you were kind of nervous, I kind of felt like a crazy. I just, but you're right. So many things could have gone wrong. I had just this last minute. Reading a bunch of the articles that there was a lot of skepticism, I faced none of that. And I didn't realize people were so skeptical. We landed and I get in my hotel room and I look out of this setup and I go, oh no, what if this doesn't work? What if this is a disaster and having a conference outside on the beach is just going to totally flop for five minutes I had this worry.

And then I got down there and I saw it and I said, okay, no way, this is going to be awesome. And it was. It totally exceeded my expectations. And I was hoping it would be fun. We generally think after we did like a post-mortem of this next year, this thing is going to be multiple times bigger than it was this year. Yeah, totally. Ben, you made a good point.

Like obviously the best thing about an event is the networking sponsors. And so what often happens is you're in the back or you're sitting next to somebody and you're whispering. And like you're giggling, you're tried not to laugh. It's just not a great experience that way. So yeah, at this place,

you didn't have to worry about that because there were so many places to mingle and socialize and see people all while content was going on and people were talking. I also just think people are generally happier outdoors. Breaking. Isn't that?

Don't you think people were in a way better mood because, sorry. The other cool thing. So we've seen these studies where I think the average age of an advisor in this country is somewhere in the 55 to 60 range, depending on what source you use. People in the advisor community are older.

This stat was shared at the future proof event a lot. A bunch of people said it. I think the average age of an advisor there was 35, which is really incredible as we're doing the post-mortem here. The other thing I thought was so cool, the best idea I thought, just like very minor thing, anytime you go to a conference, okay, it's 12 o'clock, this speech is over, everyone rushed to the lunchroom and sit down and shovel food in your face as fast as you can and then have 15 minutes to go out and catch your breath.

We had like 10 food trucks lined up. You could go get food any time of the day you wanted and kind of eat on your own schedule. You didn't have to. There was no lunch time specifically. I don't know how we could do this differently, but the food trucks were too far away. I only had the food trucks once with you, which, by the way, the food trucks were incredible. Well, I think everything was so far away because the whole setup was huge, but you, what, too many steps in during the day?

What's the problem? You had to work a little bit for it? Here's what I got wrong. I don't know why, but I guess I just sort of a sort of. that the concert would be like we both took an al on that we took an out on that we both did i don't know that i thought that people would be really amped up for it it was insane it was a great so big boy performed steve leesman's grateful dead band performed fits in the tantrums performed you and i were both kind of like is a concert with a bunch of finance people going to work and it was packed

it was a highlight last yes the other highlight for me was we got to go backstage not to brag and take a quick 30 second photo off with Big Boy from Outcast and Michael and I are in the back kind of scheming like, listen, we're going to meet this guy for 30 seconds. We have to make a good job. I was going to ask him what his portfolio looks like. Is he 70, 30, 60, 40? And you said, no, no, no, I got it. And you said,

Mr. Boy, great show. And totally, right over. It wasn't funny. Well, it was just kind of funny. Right over is that. The other thing I learned and I think I've learned this for a while now, but early on in my career, it felt like you didn't have fun doing anything. Like the people I worked with having fun and finance, like it just all the meetings I went to, all the people I talked to, there was very few smiles. There wasn't much passive back and forth of stories.

And I think that this conference or festival made me realize it's okay to enjoy and have fun and have fun and have fun and make it entertaining just as much as you can. Like, it's a serious thing because you're dealing with people's money, but it's also okay to have fun too and not take yourself so seriously. Well, speaking of fun, we had loads of it. Ben and I went for a dip in the ocean with Phil Perlman and Michael Antonelli got absolutely rocked by the waves is the Pacific ocean saltier than most oceans because I had like all sorts of chafeage going on on my thighs all right yeah that's how many gallons is a Pacific Ocean by the way yeah more gallons of that bathtub and I had sand coming out of my ear for like a week after that the waves threshed us

pretty good I had an idea that my idea was say bed let's recreate the iconic scene from Rocky 3, where Apollo and Rocky are running on the beach. And so... You said this to me, and I kind of said, yeah, okay. I planted the seed. I planted the seed. I thought it was the worst idea ever. And then two days ago, by you keep talking about it a little.

And finally you go, okay, we're meeting Duncan and John at five on the beach to film the scene. And I'm like, what are you talking about? You thought I was kidding? Yes. I didn't think you actually wanted to go through with it. Come on. He's like, this isn't funny.

Are we really doing this? And now you plant it down in my head. I'm usually very confident to my assertions, but there was an element of doubt. I said, you know, maybe he's right. I said, Duncan, we're going to scrap it. Ben says it's not funny. Duncan, to his credit, said, no, no, no, we're doing it. So we did it.

We're going to show it. We raced. Am I faster than you thought I was? You were a little fat, even though you jumped the gun by about. Well, listen, I had to. I wanted to give you a start. I wanted two and a half. I went to two and a half.

I went a little early. But everyone said, Michael's got a quicker first step than we thought. Not to brag. Yeah. I paid the price. We did two sprints. and I was sore for three days. I'm still recovering.

You also got just eaten alive by the ocean. You tried to jump a wave and it just completely took your legs out. You see that in the video. Also credit to Duncan for producing it and directing it and telling bed that like Rocky, you had to put the arm up in the air. I thought the best part was we were standing in the ocean, ankle deep in the ocean, the four of us huddling around like we're making some really important decision. And we were all watching Rocky 3, the running scene on someone's phone to make sure we recreated it right.

That's just dedication to the craft. When are you premiering this video? Right now. Okay, it's going to go on YouTube. Okay, this is when it's going on YouTube. Right now. All right. Welcome back.

I still can't believe we did that. It was funnier than I thought. Thank you. Another credit to me. And Duncan, then John and Nicole and everyone else involved. Another thing that I realized, there's New York's airports and there's everywhere else. New York airports are just generally a horrendous. this experience because there's a lot of people, an overwhelming amount to people, nobody's

happy. People at the gates, ticket, security, everyone is generally annoying. New York City really is basically its own country. Like everything about it, it's just, it's its own place, really. It really is. And so we flew it to John Wayne Airport and everybody is lovely and there's very little in the way of lines. You told me, Ben, that you can get to the Grand Rapids Airport, be to security, be at the gate in seven minutes or less. I can be there basically door to door from my door to a gate in like 15 minutes. Door, leaving, parking, through the security, it's so easy. How long before your flight do you have to arrive to at the airport? I mean, I still give myself 45 minutes, but if I had a 730 flight, I'd probably leave the house at, I don't know,

615. Yeah, it's lovely. We got to do it at least 90 minutes prior. I was surprised that all the traveling, because I had to do a connection flight, because I live in a small regional place with a small airport. All my flights landed on time. There was no problems. I was almost in a viral video because the two people sitting next to me were really drunk, but they just fell asleep, so everything worked out. And yeah, lovely time. You want to tell that story? No, I think we'll say that one for after hours. But we already decided to land dates for future proof next year. And like we said, everyone who went there said, this is the craziest, this is the best event I've ever been to. Not to like pat ourselves in the back here because the folks that advisor

circle did a lot of the heavy lifting and the operations side of things. But we already think we found ways to make it better next year. And we think it's going to be bigger and better. So next year, if you miss this, I can't wait. And we're going to, not that this year's musical acts weren't great because they were, we're going to go even bigger next year. I already can't wait. Honestly, the timing of it too, right in September, I do get a little bit depressed when summer's over because I love summer so much. This is an extension of summer. The timing is a bit rough for back to school. It's way rougher for our wives than it is for us. For us, we get to leave. Oh, yeah. So credit to them. All right, last week, Ray Dalio on LinkedIn, which is still the greatest upset ever

that LinkedIn somehow got Ray Daly to post his blog there. I still don't understand it. How did they do that? He wrote a piece called It Starts with Inflation. Dahlio says, and I quote, I estimate that a rise in rates from where they are today to about 4.5% will produce a 20% negative impact on equity prices. On average, though greater for long duration assets and less for shorter duration of ones, based on the present value discount effect and about a 10% negative impact for.

from declining incomes. So he's saying finance theory dictates that a higher interest rate, if you're discounting cash flows back to present, means a lower present value, which makes sense in theory, correct? Higher interest rates should. Yes. Yep. But in reality, it doesn't technically work like that. I did a blog post on this. And I'm comparing interest rates and inflation. And I think, now maybe this is the same thing because rates are rising because of inflation, but I think that inflation is actually more important than rising rates. So I think we could have situation where if inflation falls, and we're going to get to that in a little bit, it hasn't yet. If inflation falls and the Fed is still raising rates, I think that's more of a positive

for the stock market than it is if inflation were rising and interest rates were falling. Does that make sense? So look at this little table. This is very simple. That's definitely correct. You could poke holes in this. And I did rising and falling inflation and rising and falling rates. And I just looked at from one year to the next, did inflation rise or fall during a year? What were the annualized returns? You can see in falling and rising inflation, There's a huge difference. But look at rising in falling rates. It's basically the same exact return.

So I think a lot of people have said, now, again, you could poke holes in the way I did this. But I think a lot of people have said the only reason that we've had this huge. Wait, hang on. You keep saying that. What are the holes? Polk them. It's a very simple exercise. I did beginning of the year to the end of the year.

So I don't know. But I think a lot of people have said the reason that the stock market. Oh, wait a minute. Wait a minute. Why didn't you do rolling returns? You did calendar years? Yeah, I just did calendar years. Amateur.

See, I gave the opening to poke a hole in it. But the general direction, I think, directionally this is right, because the 1950s rates doubled, the 1960s rates doubled, and stocks did fine. But I think a lot of people have said since the early 1980s, the reason we've had this huge bull market in everything is because rates have fallen. And that's part of it. But I think the disinflation is the bigger story because inflation was high in the 80s and 90s, but it was falling.

So I think inflation going down is more bullish. to stocks than anything, than interest rates going down. Does that make sense? Even if they could happen concurrently. I agree. And I think I almost hesitant to put this out there, but I think I'm starting to get bullish. Okay. Why? Because everyone else is so bearish? There was a lot of bearish sentiment at the festival, by the way. A ton of bear sentiment. Just generally speaking, I think that there's been a lot of damage. And not just in the high beta names, all of the fang stocks are having deeper drawdowns than they did in 2020. Did you know that? Every single one of them. Did you know that? It makes sense because technology held up so much better.

But can we add the 9% inflation rate, though, and say that the drawdowns in stocks on a real basis have been way worse than even on a nominal basis? And that means that damage is even worse than people think? I do think a recession is coming in 2023. However, I think that the market is discounting a lot of it. By the way, I'm definitely not calling a bottom. That's not what I'm trying to do here. I'm just saying that I'm getting more constructive because especially...

Ooh, constructive. if that was very good pundit speak right there. Thank you. Well done. Speaking about this, Brian Belski, everyone is waiting for the data to worsen. And I think it will. How bad is it going to get? I could see stocks bottoming as the recession gets underway.

How's this? And I think that the thing that really matters, it's inflation. It's all about inflation. If inflation comes down, you're going to see stocks go up materially. So what if the anticipation of a recession is worse than the recession itself, assuming we do get one? That's what I'm saying. It seems like the Fed is. hell bent on getting us into recession now. I think the nail in the coffin was inflation last week.

And maybe they have a lot of room to work because the labor market remains strong. Maybe the Fed will be proven right. But it seems like I think they're going to overdo it. I feel like they want to show like we're the boss and don't mess with us and we're going to take inflation down whatever. That's our number one goal. That's it. So you think the Fed is going to push it too far? That would be my worry that they were left flat foot and they feel like they looked like idiots because they didn't go sooner. And now they're going to go the other way on the other side of the boat and they're going to go too far. I think if they did like 100 basis points this week,

I think Ben's recession probability chart goes up by 10 basis points. No, 10%. Sorry, 10 basis. All right. So while we're on that topic, I bet on 100 basis points. So on Cal She, I thought about, so I think they're going to do 75. But it's 90 cents. So I almost said, you know what, a 10% return in two days, why not just pick up those nickels?

Just pick up those nickels. So the market thinks that. That's 100 basis points almost for sure then. Yeah. I think according to Fed funds, it's like 82% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike. So I almost bet. I almost said yes to the 75 and just clip that 10% return. But you know, I don't like those 10% returns.

So what I did was 6 to 1 odds for 100 basis points. 100 basis points is at 13 cents or so. So I bet that they're going to do 13 basis points. Oh, it's only 13 cents for 100%. I thought you were saying 90% for a... 13 cents, I bet on 100 basis points. So I bet on them doing 100 basis or so I bet on them doing 100. basis points. I think you said it was 90 for 100. Okay. No, it's 82% for 75 basis points.

I'm trying to get into like second and third and fourth of all the thinking here. If the Fed did raise 100 basis points, does everyone just say, okay? No. Nope. No. No. What? You think the market's is going to welcome that it's good news that it's good news is anymore because is it good news that inflation is coming down because the Fed's going to push into recession? I don't know. That seems bad to me. I think I might look stupid by the time this comes out. I might look stupid by the time this comes out, but I think you're overthinking things. If they do 100 basis points, the market is not going to like that. I am overthinking things because sometimes the stock market, you do have to overthink things. And at the time you don't, I don't know. This is why I don't mess with a short

term when it comes to the markets. So, high is inflation 40 years. As it turns out, I don't if we could put the nail in the coffin, but this idea that gold is an inflation hedge, I think needs to die permanently. It can be, in certain times, it used to be maybe the next time we get inflation there, it will work. It's not working. It didn't work. It didn't work. this time. How about this? It was in the 1970s. It's not now.

Well, that's a fact. Gold is down 9% year to date. Digital gold. Also, not an inflation edge. Don't give me that nonsense that it rose because it anticipated inflation. Don't give it to me. It's down 60% year to date, okay? Not an inflation hedge.

And this in the backdrop of commodities working. Commodities proving to be an inflation edge at this time. Broadbase of commodities are up 18%. Gold's down nine. I think you could say commodities are the only true inflation hedge because it would be hard to see inflation happening without prices going up. That sounded really dumb. Without energy. I also couldn't see it. I also could not see it. In fairness. Without input prices going up, without the cost of like the energy and materials and all that stuff, I don't know how you could

have inflation where people's incomes are rising and that stuff's not going up. All right, Eddie Alfenbine, one year treasury closed today at four percent. One year ago, it was seven basis points. I'll look at this chart. The Fed is, I don't see how they don't break something. Josh just came in and said, you know, I'm going to podcasting right now. Come over, you son of a bitch. You see yields putting in a blow off top here? What did you say? Hey, everybody.

Do you see yields blowing off here? Oh, I love it. Go to real time. All right. Let me explain something to you. If these yields reverse. We were just talking about one year yields. Bottom.

I just talked about getting more constructive. And not 100. It depends what yield you're looking at, though. Are we talking about? All right. Forget the 10 year. The 10 year is calling bullshit. the two year. Give me this. Hi, Animal Spirits. This is very simple to me. The tenure is still

below three and a half. Two year treasury is at four. The tenure is laughing. You say, okay, good luck fed funds four and a quarter. I'd like to see you try. That's what's going on here. Josh heard me getting more constructive and decided to come in and say, you know what? I'm getting more constructive too. All right. But Josh, are you putting on some hedging trades? So that would be what we would need to see. We would need these short-term yields to... That is interesting, though. Like, if you look at the long end of the curve,

we were slacking about this earlier. 10-year yields, 20-year yields, 30-year yields are basically not... They're going up a little, but one and two and five-year yields are way higher. Yes. That's not normal. Where are we? Yeah. So, oh, are you getting embarrassed at the bottom?

You think something's going to break? When did I say I'm bearish? No, my thing is, I think that, like, financially, I think financially the Fed's going to break. something, it's not even the magnitude of the yield. It's yield change. It's how fast they happened. Because I looked at this. In the 50s, rates went from like 1% to 4%, but it took the whole decade. We just did that in like nine months. I just don't see how like businesses or I don't see how that doesn't like break someone's model of something when rates change that quickly.

So how would I be wrong where getting constructive here would look foolish a year from now? It's all about inflation. Because I think that earnings can deteriorate and the market will have I didn't already. If inflation is at 6% next year, we're much lower. Okay, if it stays higher. If it's like 6, 7% next year, we're much lower. But if you're calling for a 20, 23 recession, there's no way inflation can still be at 6%. This is what hurts my brain to think about. I feel like the guy from Princess Bride. It hurts to think, yes. Where he's sitting down and he's arguing with himself. Here's the bear's thing. U.S. investment-grade bond yields are the highest since 2009 at 5.1%. It would be if people said, I'm sitting out the stock market and moving

to the bond market. That would be embarrassing. Which is hard to see given that global government bonds are on track for their worst annual loss since 1949. This is true. People aren't piling into bonds. I was thinking that. You're seeing huge losses. How often do allocators actually lean into the pain and rebalance into their worst performing asset left or one of them? Yeah, you know what? This is the worst year in 70 years. Give me some more of that pain. Give me some more. It's not going to happen. That's true. Yeah, the boards of the pensions and stuff are not going to sign off on that. What's also making me more constructive here is credit spreads are not doing anything.

They're not signaling recession. I know that's not like the end-l-be-all, but State Street had this chart of ingressment and high-year performance by credit rating. It goes from AAA all the way down to senior loans, and there's no difference. It's not like the lower-rated stuff is getting killed. Higher yields are holding up just as well. Credit spreads are not signaling anything. There's no stress.

That's true. Are we going to just throw out the yield curve at this point and say, it doesn't matter because six-month yields and 12-month yields are way higher than 10-year yields and 30 years. Do we not care about that anymore? I don't know that the yield curve has lost some of its predictive ability. Now, I also do think that we're going into a recession. This is what I can't figure out. Is a recession bullish? Because that means we beat inflation and the stock market can look past it. Yes. I just think one print of better, of less bad than expected inflation, markets up like 7% in a week.

I think everybody's expecting the worst. I really do. I think a lot of people expect the Fed to go way too far and really break shit. And I don't know. I mean, it can happen, obviously. But them breaking stuff means a recession. Which I think is going to happen. All right.

My brain hurts. Jeff Klein-top tweeted, What will happen if China stops buying U.S. treasuries? It already did a decade ago. Look at this chart. He said China has been a net seller of U.S. treasuries for over a decade and now holds only 4% of all outstanding U.S. Treasuries down from 40% 10 years ago.

Remember, this was like a big worry. This was like a big thing. What happens when China stops buying our debt? They have a long time ago. You know, what happens? Other people buy it. Is this the, for every seller of an asset, there's a buyer? There has to be.

The Fed is the new China. Okay. Go down from Jason Zewike. On last week's live show, we asked, what would it take for international stocks to finally outperform U.S. stocks? Because it's been so long. Well, is my answer. The only answer is valuation.

That's it. That's it. Jason Zawig said, I thought this is really well said. He's obviously one of the best finance writers there is. Markets almost always misprice the obvious. He's saying international stocks are depressed because of a prolonged war in Ukraine, energy crisis, raging inflation. They're going to have a recession probably, floundering currencies.

He was basically saying, at this point, it's obvious. International shares are priced for almost nothing but negativity. And his point is basically like a drop in the dollar could be a double boost to returns. I can't tell you when it'll happen, but I think it will. His Wall Street Journal article is worth reading. And it's kind of basically like pessimism is so pervasive. it wouldn't take much on the upside for things to get a little less worse for European stocks. And the dollar go down, European stocks do well.

Remember, I guess a year and a half ago, what could cause value to outperform is that valuations are at extremes. You don't need much to go right for like the rubber band to go the other direction. I understand people who are questioning global diversification. You'd be nuts if you weren't. I personally like it feels like, what's the point? It's been 15 years of this. And I totally get that.

The 2020 was so insane, not just in the stock market, but Dennis Schroeder. Is it Schrader? I call him Schroeder. In 2021, he turned down an offer for $84 million. So he's got the, oh, the two little dots above it on his name. Yeah. In 2022, he signed a deal for 2.6. That's like a 90% drawdown.

Don't check my math. I feel like Dennis Schrader is the stock market. He's emblematic of what 2021 was like. His contract is, I wish I would have sold Shopify a year and a half ago kind of thing. You look at that peak and you go, I wish I would have sold right there. Speaking of don't check my math, let's do this now. So I knew this didn't sound right coming out of my mouth on the live podcast. This email killed me.

Said, hey fellas, big fan of the podcast, been listening for about five years now and love the content. Heard a couple things on today's release that sparked my interest of someone who works for one of the big four airlines. Michael, brutal back of the envelope math on the revenue for a flight. What did you say, $800 a ticket or something? No, I said 100 seats on the flight. I estimated $800,000 in revenue. He goes, again, there was an audience. I panicked.

I panicked. He goes, average fare was $8,000 question mark? Inflation truth. Oh, $8,000. Oh, you said $8,000. Okay, yeah. Using an average, blah, blah, blah, the flight could have been a little under 30K in revenue. Unless, of course, they were charging $200 a pop for Miami Vices.

But also, I'm the digital product manager for in-flight entertainment on my airline. Curious on your thoughts and your respective experiences. You're right. Movies on flight do hit different. So. I like the amount of... What did you watch on the fly? On my flight home, which I think is one of the best airline movies all time.

I watched up in the air with George Clooney. And that's the kind of movie that when you're on a plane, it just hits different. And I also think... It's perfect. It might not be his best movie. It's my favorite Clooney movie. It's up there.

I love that movie. I love that movie, too, and I only saw it one time. I texted my friend. He texted me back a clip. He goes, that reminds me of this scene from up in the air. And I respond to him this weekend. I said, I got to watch that movie. So, movies on air...

You mentioned $200 Miami Vices. We should also give a shout out to Colleen, workers with us, who we did our live show at 10 a.m. And she talked the bartender at the pool into opening the bar and pouring two Miami vices for us just so we could have one in our live show with a beach. It really added to the ambiance. Yeah, it was huge. Do you remember back in the day, and not that long ago, when you were on an airplane and

there was a flight, it was like going on a coach bus where there was like maybe two screens and if you were like 15 feet from the screen, you were just shit out of luck. That was it. Now... Remember when they used to have a phone? You could use your credit card to call someone. There was a phone on the back of the seat in front of you. Yeah.

Now, there's every movie you could possibly want. And I think the two reasons why Airplane movies hit differently, when you leave a bad movie, you're like that piece of, I can't believe I'd just spend two hours on a Friday, not do. There's nothing to do. And there's zero distractions. If this person who emailed in is asking for what they should do to improve it, give me a play something for me. I don't want to search for an hour. Bad idea.

Based on what? How does the flight know you? Ask you four questions. I thought like, I want a comedy. I want something light and I look forever for a comedy. I just want to hit, just play me a comedy after answering five questions about. You know how I know movies on airplanes hit different? I liked Morbius.

I don't know what that is. It wasn't good. But I liked it. But you liked it on the plane? I liked it on the plane. Where were we? We have to talk about inflation because we were in Huntington Beach last week and that inflation print hit. And you got just the common slat.

There's brutal to you because you were talking about how the put buyers were wrong and there was a 4% rally in the stock market, and then the next day, stocks feel like 5%. Wait, people of the comments section were mean. That's so weird. You were right at the time. Listen, I deserved it. I deserve to get slapped. I'm a big boy. I was wrong. It happens. Stocks were down like four. It's a second down 4% day of the year because inflation came in a little higher than expected. It does seem like every inflation report, we focus on one sector, and this time it was rent. So look at, I pulled this up from the BLS segment. You can see energy, all the energy stuff was down in August, down five percent.

down 10%, down 11, down 6. And then you see Shelter, but look at, I highlighted the shelter here just for you. Look at how smooth it is. Point 5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.6. It looks like it's like people are just putting it in. What are you reading? Are you not seeing this highlighted table I put in here? Percent changes for CPI for all urban consumer. 0.5.0.6. The reason this is important is because Shelter makes up one third of the input for inflation. I put that in the next one for you. The thing is people don't renegotiate the rent on a monthly basis. So the BLS. at the data every six months, and then they smooth it over the next, like, six to 12 months. So it's a lagging indicator because it happens every six months. And what they, I talk to Josh

about this out in California, literally the way they do this is they call people who own a house and say, how much would you rent it out for? Which seems subpar. But the thing is, you could probably say- They call it owner's equivalent rent. So Matthew Klein said the rent. Which, by the way, how would anybody know? What would you guess you could rent your house for? Would you just say what your mortgage is? Is that about what people say? At a premium, maybe. Matthew Client said the rent inflation reported in the CPI is a 90% story about what happened last year, not current conditions. So it's a lagging indicator, which the counterpoint there would be, that means it was probably understating things before, and now maybe it's overstating things. So it kind of shakes out.

But Sam Lee said, since the end of 2019, owner's equivalent rent, the biggest component of CPI is up a cumulative 10.8%. An apartment list national median rent is up a cumulative 24.2%. Implying CPI shelter has a lot of catching up to do. That's the thing. Like, it's probably going to stay high for a while because it lags and it's like, it slowly smooths out over time. I still think inflation peaked, assume me. This is not great.

Food at home increased 13.5% in August compared to 13% in July. The high since February, 1979. I did go to the grocery store yesterday. And I felt it, Ben. I noticed. All right. See, we just order, we just do shipped from our mart next door house and just never go to the grocery store anymore.

So I just never know. I tend to get the same stuff when I go to the grocery store. I'm pretty efficient when I go. I'm at like, I don't know, 205 to 215 to 215. Yes, it in my bill is 250. I hold you personally responsible. I feel like that's hard to compare over time because it depends when you go grocery shopping. Did you go when you're hungry?

Did you go late at night? No, it doesn't. You don't think so? I just told you. I'm consistent. I'm not one of those. Oh, let's get this. Let's get this.

I get what I need and I get out. For the University of Michigan, the median expected year ahead inflation rate, this is good news. It declined to 4.6 percent. The lowest reading since last September. Look at this chart. It's rolling over. It's rolling over.

If you said two months ago, inflation peak, you could still be right because he was at 9.1%. And then now it's at 8.3. You know it ticked back up a little bit. You could still be right about the peak. By the way, what is the quiver? Arrow and the quiver. Is the quiver the thing in the... Yeah.

The little satchel thing you hold it in. Okay. That's what I thought. So Robert Hood has a thing around his back, yeah. Arrow and the quiver. Okay. By the way, you're watching House of the Dragon? Yeah, of course.

It is quite good. My wife has gotten more into the backstory of this person and this. related to this one on the show. And I, it's the one show like that where there's a lot of TV shows. I'll dig really deep and I'll listen to a podcast or two and I'll read some stuff. This is the one show where I just, my brain is a clean slate. I don't care about any of the interactions between the two shows. I'm on a week to week basis with that show.

I don't go outside of it. I'm just, I'm in it. And I do like it. But I, like an idiot, I stopped watching Game of Thrones in like season four because I realized I wasn't big attention. I know what was going on. But even still, even not finishing Game of Thrones. This, I'm committing.

And I like it. I think people might forget, but the first two or three seasons of Game of Thrones were really slow. Not a lot happened. So I feel like this one decided to get into the action way quicker. Yeah, I'm into it. Okay, so another arrow in the quiver of inflation peaking. Look at this chart from State Street. Global supply chain pressure index. Hard peak. What would have to happen for inflation to accelerate from here? Look at crude oil. It's getting killed again. Gasoline's all the way down. The only thing that could happen is wages, I feel like. housing market is basically aren't in recession. Energy prices have fallen. The supply chains are getting

better. It does feel like even if the data says it's sticking around for a while longer. The data's lagging. Don't trust your eyes. Do not trust your eyes, people. This is the kind of thing where the vibes feel like they've gotten better than inflation. For a while, the vibes were terrible. Now the vibes have improved. So real estate is rolling over. The house that I've been talking about that started at 725, cut to 699, cut it again to 6-849, which seems very unusually precise. It's not going to sell at 6-849 either. Sorry. Ben, we have to talk about Open Door.

Lance Lamberts put out this. This is a stock that you and I owned for like two months. Remember this back in 2020? Credit to us. I don't even think I'd take a loss on it. I think I might have broke even. It went way up and came down and I just, I set him out. Sometimes that's half the battle is getting out of the losers.

That's right. Because this thing is down, I think, 90% from the highest. Yeah, it's down 73% year to date, which is not good. So Lance Lamberts was going through listings live and tweeting it, okay? So he was going through it live and then tweeting it on the machine. Here we go. Open Door bought this North Las Vegas house, so this is in Vegas, $85,000 in April

2022. It was listed for sale at $520,000 a month later. It was down to $4.65 by the time Open Door took it off the market in August 22. And he said, I'm not cherry picking. I'm going in order based on search results. Okay, next. Open Door bought this home for $493 in August. in September listed for $4.85.

And they just kept going. Here's another one. Open Door bought this Las Vegas home for 402 in March. In April, it was listed for 476. By July, the listing was down to $3.70. Okay, so you get the point. Also today, I read, coincidentally, that Open Door lost money on four. If I wanted to be glass-house.

I buying's tough, especially when the market goes straight up and then comes back down. Do you even fault them for this? Prices are going up too much? I mean, maybe it's because they turn on and list them so fast, but the glasses have full person here would say, well, they made money on 58% of their transactions. That's still a winning formula, depending on the magnitude of how much they make and lose. But I guess a lot of people would think housing has gone up. I mean, I know it's slowed, but why wouldn't your hit rate be more like 90% positive

or something? Because housing seems like it's the kind of thing where you should basically never take a loss. Well, it was. It was. It was. Look at 2000. I'm like, it looks like 95% of the house. in early 2021.

And then the houses that they bought, the market turned, and they're holding the bag. It's tough. The problem would be they don't want to turn into a long-term holder of these houses because what they could do is essentially go into some of these areas

that are going to be slowing and buy the house and hold onto it for a long time, but they don't want those carrying costs. That's not their business. That's how you make money in houses is you hold them for a long time. It's not like you flip them around right away. So Zillow stock is not getting killed quite as bad.

Zillow's down 48% on the year. Getting out of eye buying was probably the smartest thing they did, even though it was dumb to get into it the first place. I think the Zestimates matter a lot, a lot, because I was poking around my neighborhood, and I saw a house that's been listed at like 1-1 for a long, long time, and it's not worth 1-1, it's probably not even worth 9. But they lowered their price to 9-99, and I, like every other, and I'm not a buyer, but every buyer is going to look at this estimate that's listed for 9-99, the Zestimate is 9-6-5. Nobody's buying it. This estimate matters. So finally, you and I have complained over time about the closing process for like a refinance or a home equity line of credit. Is Zillow like Twitter in terms of a company that's very influential with a really shitty stock? Yeah, it could be.

So the House Acrossomey sold for way more than ours was estimated. Zillow was Twitter for housing. That's not a bad take. The House Across Street from was sold for more than they appraised ours for like 15 months ago, like a lot more. And so I went to my bank and I said, my appraisal is probably going to be higher now. I want to lock it in before things really roll. over in the housing market, if they do. Let's increase my home equity line of credit based on my new

appraisal. I might as well get that money just to have it as a backdrop. And they said, what is your Zestimate look like? And I said, oh, so we don't need to do an appraisal. They said, no, let's use the Zestimate. And I'm like, awesome. Why didn't we do this before? I know that Zestments are not perfect, but they're probably better than an appraisal. Any appraisal I've ever done, I think Zillow is closer than the appraisal to the actual value. What is this estimate? Is it just like the average of the 10 most recent sales in your neighborhood? Because that works. Yeah. And the funny thing is, is that the appraisal will use like two or three different ones to look at it against. And if they can't find one that is similar to your house that's sold in the last like six months, they use something else that's not even close. So I think Zestimit is actually closer. All right. I think housing is going to be a problem for a long time. This is from Josh Lerner. I don't know who he is, but he's tweeting up all things housing. The pandemic household formation boom was real. From 2019 to 2021, the U.S. added 2.5 million housing units, meaning we built 2.5 million houses, but the number of households increased to 4.7 million. Meaning household formation.

What is that? People getting married? Is that people getting married? I don't know how they calculate that. But he said, not a single state added more housing units than new households. So we had more household formation than houses built in every single state in the country. I think the problem, too, so Lisa Bramowitz tweeted this out, about half of U.S. income is earned by households making more than $100,000 per year with most owning homes, which makes sense. People who make more money own their home.

So the largest expense for these households isn't rising even with tighter Fed policy. but wages are going up, perhaps explaining my core inflation is so sticky. This is from Morgan Stanley. And I think this is so true. Tighter monetary policy doesn't work on high income people who already have their housing costs locked in. Because we've talking about the problem with inflation right now is owner equivalent rent. That's housing. If you locked in your housing, what are new and existing home sales combined on a monthly basis? I don't know what the number is off top of my head, but it's a tiny number in the grand scheme of things. So the people who are having that inflation rates, rising rates really sucks. I'm not trying to minimize it. I'm

just saying on a macro level, it's not a huge driver. This is why luck and timing are such a big component of your financial success in life a lot of times. So if you're an older millennial like us, you probably bought a house and you have a 3% mortgage from refinancing. It's up 20 to 40% from where you bought it. Your cost is fixed. You're now probably making more money because of inflation. And you can finally you now earn income on your cash. You can earn 4% on your cash almost. And you're able to buy stocks at lower levels. You're in a pretty good position. Now, if you're a younger millennial Gen Z, and you didn't buy a home, your rent costs have gone up. It's basically

unaffordable to buy a house right now because housing prices are up and interest rates are up. And so the new Occupy Wall Street is going to be, they're going to just hate the Fed forever young people. By the way, your comment about why doesn't the Fed start buying mortgages again to put a cap on interest rates? They're trying to slow the economy. Hello? Earth to bed. I know they want, but yes, there was a few people in the crowd at the live show. show said, Ben's right. We had a few people afterwards that came up to us and said, Ben's right. I just, I don't like the speed at which mortgage rates rose. I understand why they're doing it. I don't like the speed of it. So, Chris comes into the office at 2.30, like, what's

going on? Stop everything. I'm here. Bill McBride wrote a post at Calculator risk. And he said that the Fed cannot control supply chain stuff, even though supply chain, the index is coming down. So he said, housing is a main transmission mechanism for Fed policy. And when the year-over-year change in new home sales falls about 20 percent, usually a recession will follow, which is where we were. Obviously, the pandemic put an asterisk in the latest data. But he said if the Fed tightening cycle will lead to a recession, we should see housing turned down first.

This is now happening, but this usually leads to the economy by a year or more. So we might be looking at a recession in 2023. And housing could be the main call. It honestly makes sense. I guess so the Fed is kind of saying there's nothing we can do about all this other stuff. We're just going to make people poorer. And that's our main mechanism for bringing down inflation. We're going to give you less money.

Seems to be working. Unfortunately, that's the only tool they really have. And then... This checks will not be sent. Then in 2024, they're going to cut rates. The government's going to send out more checks. And then we're right back to where we started. No, yeah, that's true.

That's gone. All right, survey of the week from Gallup. Quiet quiters make up at least 50% of the U.S. workforce, probably more. The trend toward quiet quitting, which is the idea that's writing virally in social media that millions of people are not going above and beyond at work and just meeting their job description could get worse. This is a problem because most jobs today require some level of extra effort to collaborate with coworkers and meet customer needs. Now, you look at this chart over time, it's basically unchanged. And honestly, 50% of the population just doing what they're told and not going above and beyond, that sounds low to me.

How many people actually love their job and go above and beyond the call of duty? The thing that really angers me on social media is the whole when they say no one wants to work anymore. People love the belief that they go above and beyond and they work their butts off, but everyone else is lazy. Like, you know what's wrong with this country. Yeah, it's so true. Everybody gives above average effort. That's true.

How many jobs have you had in your life where you did what you were told and didn't go above and beyond? And it's like, that's all you needed to do. It's not your passion or your dream job or not everyone has that situation where they're going to put in the extra hours because a lot of jobs you don't need to. If you ever spent time on our earliest jobs, I was a worker bee. I had many jobs. Maybe we could get into another show, but I was a worker, not to break. My worst job for two summers, I delivered furniture. But man, I'm in good shape.

That's a job. That's a job. Carrying a couch down the stair, the sleeper sofa? Oof, anyway. So at the peak, in 2021 in the second quarter, there was 147 new unicorns. In the most recent quarter, 18. 147 at the peak to 18 today. Sounds about right.

New unicorns. I'm surprised it's that high still. Yep. So terrible quarter guys, FedEx warned. They said global volumes decline as macro. I don't know how you would address them. But given the speed at which conditions shifted, first quarter results are below our expectations. And the stock got killed.

As a guy who's not a FedEx analyst, isn't it possible that Amazon is just killing FedEx? Because nine times out of ten, if there's a delivery truck in my neighborhood, it's Amazon, maybe UPS, FedEx is way down the list these days. Which is FedEx is the brown one? No, UPS is the brown one. FedEx is the white one. Have you not seen Castaway? I'm sorry. Come on.

They got killed. Their stock did get killed. Isn't this possibly Amazon killing FedEx and maybe they're not a harbinger of a global depression? What if, like the retailers that threw us off the scent of maybe things aren't so bad because they over, ordered. What if FedEx is a FedEx story? What if? It's easy to blame macro. My hair. Gone. Macro. Boom. The thing is, macro conditions. If we're right that there potentially is a recession in 2023 or 2024 or whatever, if you're a company, why would you not blame it on it? If you had poor results, why would you not blame it on that? And say, just wait, it's coming. I don't know.

You'd almost blame that. Okay. This is a new study posted in Science Direct called it's all study about happiness and what causes happiness and life satisfaction. Here's the kicker. Friends, health, relationships. Satisfaction with family, life, and health are closely linked with happiness while satisfaction with income and leisure time, although highly statistically significant, are the weakest predictors of high levels of well-being for both men and women. Basically saying family and health are way more closely linked with happiness than income and leisure time, which the leisure one kind of surprises me. Well, no shit. Because you'd think having more leisure time would make you happier, but I think people probably become bored if they have too much

time in their hands. Is that it? Yeah. After three days home, when you're 11 years old watching Jerry Springer, you get bored. First day is great after a while. You want to get back? But this is, Jerry Springer's so on? Take care of each. Take care of yourself and each other. But this feels like an obvious thing that no one. Remember Steve? Oh, yeah. We watched that show in college in high school for sure. In high school, we was sneaking one of the classes and watch that. But this feels like an obvious thing to tell someone that they wouldn't believe until they experience it for themselves. That money, income and leisure time and, like, those things aren't going to make you happier, but health and family. I think my happiness is at an all-time

high. Can I tell you what I did this morning? So I put my boys on the bus at 825 and 840. This morning, we got up, I get in breakfast, played with them. We watched Pinocchio, which was awful, but they seemed to love it. It was really bad, right? It's so bad. And hearing my three-year-old try and say Pinocchio was the cutest thing ever. So- Oh, my daughter, too, trying to say that. It's so, I mean, my heart was melting. So family and healthies. That's it. My daughter is big into soccer. She's first time in like a travel team. And I love sports growing up and football and basketball, all this stuff. And I've never been so into something as like my daughter playing an eight-year-old soccer game. It's so I'm like nervous for her. Not like I'm a crazy parent, but like it is true. Yes.

I echo those sentiments. And I think that everyone listening who has young children, would agree that there's literally nothing in the world like watching your kid play sports. So Kobe, Kobe's not an athlete. He's an arts and crafts guy. But watching all these boys and coaching them and go to the five-year-old baseball game with the self, it's too much. Hey, that's so cute. Kobe is a master at Mario World. He's going to have his own Twitch stream.

Well, we took his video games away. It was too much. He was obsessed. When I stayed at Michael's house a few weeks ago, I woke up and I walked downstairs and Kobe was explaining to me how to beat Bowser. I couldn't believe how good he was. He's being Big Bowser for Halloween. Well, speaking of, I got to talk.

So the downside of it, and this happens from time to time, my son woke up in the middle of the night, Saturday night, just screaming in pain. Just my stomach hurts, my stomach hurts. And I've had my appendix out, and I'm thinking the worst, like, oh, my gosh, something really bad's going on. And it wasn't like, nothing can calm him down. Medicine, nothing. He'd been complaining about it for a couple days.

So we brought him to the ER at like 11 o'clock. They have a really nice ER in Grand Rapids here. They have their own children's hospital. they have valet parking out front, which is great. They take your car. I just want to talk about the wonders of technology. So they wanted to make sure nothing is wrong internally with him. So they give him an ultrasound, an x-ray, and a CT scan.

So I'm watching the ultrasound. They put the stuff on there, you know, the little goo, and they take pictures. The lady's talking me through all his internal organs. There's this, there's this. Here's his appendix. Here's these limp nodes we're looking to see. And luckily, everything turned out to be okay. He must have just had some weird stomach virus.

Turned out to be fine. We were there all night, which was tough. But I just think if you told someone a couple hundred years ago, we're going to take this machine and see everything that's inside of your stomach right now and take a picture of it immediately and measure it. Imagine they have that. That's true. For the dragons,

if they have a stomach cake. But it's one of those things where you take a step back and you go, I can't believe that someone figured out how to do this. It's kind of mind-blowing that we can just immediately take a picture of someone's stomach and prove that they're okay. Yeah, it's incredible. It can't be bearish. Yes, the wonders of technology.

I'm trying to be a glass-safel guy here. All right. What's your basketball thing? I grew up playing basketball, but it's been a while. And I've had like this chest tightness. And so the first game is tonight, actually. And when we were in California, I said, thanks for the invite. I'll make it the next week because I have asked men.

So anyway, mind you, I don't know any of these people. I know one person on the group of text. So I texted, like, I know this is the lamest thing of all time, but I can't make it this week. So Robin looked at my phone and said, you're going. I said, but my chest, you're going. So I'm going, and you said there's like a 90% chance that I blow out my ACL. I've talked to so many dads over the years. I had a friend who was like, I was dribbling up the court and went to stop, and I heard a pop

and it felt like someone shot me and he blew out its Achilles. I hear so many stories about like, I broke my clavicle, I blew my ACL. I'm playing with fire. If you're in like late 30s, early 40s and you decide to pick up basketball again, there's like a 75% chance you're going to blow something out. Hang on, it's obviously half court, like needless to say. It could be full court I'm just saying

Oh no, no, no, no, that I can't do That's a given I can do half court, I think We'll say Just go three point line to three point line I'll let you know If you know, you've got a pretty good jumper I'll let you know next week

So you saw the news We're doing a recommendation though You saw the news that the Patagonia guy Decided to give up his company I don't really know the details I kind of saw the headlines I didn't read the article Yvonne Schuinar I think

I don't know if I'm saying that right It sounds like a name of one of Ben Stiller's bosses On one of his movies I don't know Anyway, so have you read his book, Let My People Go Surfing? He's the founder of Patagonia. I haven't seen The Secret Life of Walter Medi.

Got to see that movie. I was a little disappointed first time I saw it, but on a rewatch, it's actually not bad. That's a pretty decent movie. Okay. A lot of good actors, though. All right, so what's up this book? So it's called Let My People Go Surfing, and it's how he fell in backwards to being the founder of Patagonia, and it was just him and a bunch of his climbing friends

were just not happy with any of the gear that was available. He didn't want to be a business person. Did you read this? Did you read this? It's an awesome book. Really well. So I think if the news kind of reminded me of it. that if you haven't read it yet, I think it's really, he was kind of a guy that was forced into

becoming a business leader and never really wanted to be one. I think it's all about like the how Patagonia was founded, really well done. I mentioned up in the air already. We watched where the Crawdads sing this week, weekend. It's a new, newish one. Great book. You read that? I read that. Listen, I love romance. I love romance. That really surprises me that you read that book. I would not expect. I was going to say, if you didn't read the book, probably don't see the movie for you personally, but I think they did a pretty good job of the book. There's a couple things at the end that I thought that they left out, but it was a pretty good rendition of the book. Okay. So that's the one to watch with your wife. That's a date night. Well, I tried. She

won't go to the movies with me. I tried. I also tried to convince him to see Barbarian with me. She said, no. I saw Barbarian. You should see Barbarian. Well, maybe not you should see Barbarian. Barbarian was phenomenal. Absolutely insane movie. The premises that a lady goes to an Airbnb, a house of beat-up house in Detroit and somebody also went to the Airbnb somebody staying there. It's a horror movie.

It's over-the-top, silly, crazy, violent. Three or four different Airbnb horror movies. Not like this. It's a new genre. Okay, not like this. If you have any interest as what I'm telling you, this is like, I feel like this movie was like made for me. Are we talking about like it's grotesque

or it's over the top or am I going to be like grossed out? It's not like extreme violence. I mean, there definitely is violence. But here, this is what this movie is. So I have a friend who is a Hollywood producer. No big deal. So I was talking about it. He said, I'm so excited to see it.

I kept reading the script and every 15 pages would be like, what the fuck? Okay. It's one of those movies where you're watching. You're like, wait, what? What's your Michael Battenick Networth thing here? It says, Ben, do not read this. Okay. We'll do this next week.

Wait, did someone search your net worth on Google or something? Is that a thing? my friend texted me, I was Googling stuff about future proof and somehow I found this, do not read the link. All right, I won't read it. We'll get into it next week.

We'll get into it next week. It's really something. This is a good reminder. We actually had some of our NFT holders there at the conference too that we needed to mention that came up to us. And who was the guy, Joel,

who was in a full Miami Vice outfit. Oh, Joel. Killer. Which was awesome. Yes. Really nice guy. Also, next year, we're working on it. We're going to get Miami Vice shirts made

come hell or high water. for an extra future proof. Yes. Book it. All right. Send us an email, Animal Spiritspot at gmail.com, and we'll see you next time.