Animal Spirits Podcast - Is Twitter Dead? (EP.316)

Episode Date: July 12, 2023

On episode 316 of Animal Spirits, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss: when to get bullish on the long run, how to use sell side stock research, what's wrong with Disney, cruises are underrated, how the pandemic messed up historical economic relationships, 8% mortgage rates and 3% mortgage rates, why housing prices are still going up, and much more! Thanks to YCharts for sponsoring this episode. See their latest monthly market wrap for June. This is a monthly blog post where YCharts breaks down the most important trends for advisors and their clients. All data/ charts in the report can be utilized by advisors to show to their clients: https://get.ycharts.com/resources/blog/monthly-market-wrap/ Pick up your Tropical Bros X Animal Spirits shirt here: https://tropicalbros.com/collections/animal-spirits/products/super-stretch-animal-spirits-hawaiian-shirt Find complete shownotes on our blogs... Ben Carlson’s A Wealth of Common Sense Michael Batnick’s The Irrelevant Investor Feel free to shoot us an email at [e-mail] with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.   Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com   Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's Animal Spirits is brought to you by our friends at Y Charts. Why Charts does a monthly market wrap. So they just did this one for June. It's just a monthly blog where they break down the most important trends and charts. And this is pretty good. I was going through it today. They have index performance, asset class performance, sector performance, and then they have the best stocks.

So the best performing stocks of the S&P 500 for June were both cruise ships, carnival cruise and Norwegian cruise line. Did you see the new giant cruise ship? Yes, and I think I'm going to go Michael Burry on this and go against the grain, because everyone is dunking on this thing saying this looks awful. None of these people have ever been on a cruise before. I would be one of these people if I hadn't been on three cruises in my life and enjoyed each one of them. I think a cruise is a lovely time that people who have never been on one dunk on unreasonably. You know, I was going to zag too.

I've never been on a cruise, but I'd be happy to go on one. I don't understand that dunk on a cruise is. What's bad about a cruise? Here's what you get on a cruise. They have a casino on board. You get to eat as much as you want. The food's good. It's better than like an all-inclusive place.

You could drink a bunch. And then they have shows every single night. There's tons of stuff to do. It's great. Anyway, yeah, I was surprised. Both of those carnival. What is it? Carnival?

Is it Royal or Norwegian? Royal Caribbean is up 30%. Royal Caribbean had the biggest one, I think. Anyway, this is really cool. If you want to sign up for this, We'll have a link in our show notes so we can sign up and get the monthly breakdown from them

and then you can kind of click through and go to the charts and if you want to subscribe to White Charts and you haven't done so yet. Tell them Animal Spirits sent you 20% off that initial sign-up. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing.

Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ridhol's wealth management. This podcast is for informational purposes only

and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Britholt's wealth management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Michael, we don't do victory laps here, because we've been wrong about plenty of stuff

over the years. You know what we've been right about. What will we've been right about? Tropica Bros. This shirt is a couple of days late, but I did rock it on July. life forth. You damn right I did. Well, that is a tropical prose. Of course it is.

Okay. How great is this? We're working on the animal spirits ones. We should have them back within days, hopefully by next week. We'll let people know. So back to the victory lap. What are we right about? All right. Well, so I wrote about this. It's not necessarily even being right. It's just looking at a range of possibilities and like having a baseline set of expectations. So I wrote this on October 2nd, 2022, how I'm getting long-term bullish. And I said my general investment philosophy is the more bearish things feel in the short run, the more bullish I should be over the long run. Even though I said at the time, like, I personally feel bearish. So I looked at,

and I'm pretty sure we talked about it on this show, what happens when the S&P 500 is down 25% or worse since 1950? And then the same thing, what happens to the NASDAQ is down 30% or worse since 1971. I looked out 1, 3, 5, and 10 years and said, hey, from these 25% and 30% declines, things are pretty good, even though there have been times when we've gone way past that. We've gone way further down than 25 or 30. Can I interrupt? Mm-hmm. Thank you.

It's your thing? I would love for there to be an animal spirit's fear and greed index over time. Like, honestly, because I feel like I started to get bullish in the fall, but I honestly, I don't even remember. And when I say get bullish, get bullish, this is not, we don't invest, bullish, swing to cash. but just you know just for the sake of discourse right so since then if i went from the end of because i did these numbers through the end of third quarter which was september 30th since then the nasdaq is up 38% the s&p is up almost 25% and it's again not to like and the funny thing is the s&p did fall almost exactly 25% that was like the that was kind of

the bottom we're now let's see on a total return basis less than 6% away from all time highs for the P, less than 9% away from all-time highs for the NASDAQ. And the point isn't here to say, ha, ha, we were right. It's to say that, like, when stocks fall a lot like this? Like, when is a better time to buy? And it never feels like it at the time. Because, again, it felt good to be bearish at that point, to be like, okay, inflation is getting worse and a recession is rare on the corner, and, like, stocks could roll over more.

And then you have the people say, what about Japan and what if the stock market never comes back? I just think if that's always going to be your baseline and you're never going to feel safe buying in bare markets, like that, that's the time to do it. You're going to be in trouble if that's your default. Yes. I'm just saying like that, if that's your baseline, that's pretty good. Well, in bare markets, you have to be able to say things are scary right now. News might get worse.

Stocks might fall more. But you know what? I have to buy. I have to buy anyway. I think most people, generally most people do that. So we talked about this a couple weeks ago. older investors are having a higher equity allocation. The Wall Street Journal had another follow-up on this. Half of Vanguard 4-1K investors who are actively managing their money, and over 55,

held more than 70% of their portfolios in stocks. So I think that's taking away like target date funds. In 2011, only 38% did. At Fidelity, nearly four in 10 investors, 65 to 69, hold two-thirds or more of their portfolio in stocks. One-fifth of investors, 85 or older, have nearly all their money in stocks and taxable brokerage accounts at Vanguard, up from 16% in 2012, the same is true of almost a quarter of those 75 to 84. And we talked about some of the reasons for this, but isn't this just the kind of thing where for every age group eventually this is going to happen, where it's going to, like, your allocation to equities is going to drift higher over time, I think, for a lot of people.

As you get older even? I think people are coming around to the idea that, I mean, a less fire. 5% rates are here to stay forever, and people just find that easier. I think people, the longer you invest in the stock market, the more you realize that that's your best bet for growing your wealth. Yeah. I think that's a huge component. I do strongly believe that the other is that interest rates were at zero.

And so there will be some sort of equilibrium. I don't know what that looks like exactly. But I do think the broader point is this. people have learned that stocks are the only game in town for retirement accounts to build long-term wealth. Right. And I think the other group would be just real estate investors, people who think that either owning a home or buying real estate, that's probably that'd be the second one for most people, even though the surveys don't really show that. That's probably where people have their money. All right. So away from retirement accounts and the set and forget it.

And by the way, going back to you have to buy, I'm not suggesting that you should be sitting on cash waiting to pounce. Like, that's not how you should invest. When I say you have to buy, I mean, you have to just automatically buy. You just have to keep the program going. And also I think the only way to do it is to automate it. Yes.

And maybe the other thing is just when stocks are down 20% or something, that's not the time you get, okay, I'm going to get defensive and I'm going to go to swing to cash or whatever it is. That's the problem when people do something like that. That's such a good point. It's more important. You don't need to be a hero. and let's say that you pause your investing because you are scared, all right, you know,

probably not the best thing to do. In fact, it's not the best thing to do. But it's nowhere near as bad as the inverse, which is, I want safety. I'm going to go to cash. That is, that's how you, that's how you, that's how you, you, you, you, you, all right. Um, all right, so going back, sorry, going, so away from retirement accounts, long term stuff to more. Let's zoom in, Ben. What do you say? We double click. Okay. All right, U.S. retail flows.

This is from, I believe this is, oh, this from J.P. Morgan. Rolling 20-day average, this is single stocks. People are getting bullish. People are getting bullish. And why shouldn't they? And when I say, why shouldn't they? I don't mean, am I talking, am I making forward predictions? But we're saying, when stocks rally, people get bullish. Unfortunately, that's just what happens, right? People chase, people chase. I guess I've never, I've never seen this for single stocks before. This is kind of, this is, you'd expect to see a lot of volatility here. And it, and it makes sense. This, this is the kind of graph that looks like it kind of follows the market, right?

The market goes down. People stop buying individual stocks. The market goes up. They start buying it. That makes sense from a risk management perspective or a risk profile perspective. But it's not just single stocks. Look at, look at the ETFs. Massive inflows.

I don't know what month this was exactly. But, all right. So retail's back. And you would say, uh-oh, ring the bell. Well, actually not so fast. Ben, last week we were talking about the smart money being fixed income or whatever. Wall Street Journal via Bank of America. This is a great, great chart.

Okay. They look at the subsequent four-week returns in the S&P 500 after four consecutive weeks of inflows. And they break that down by hedge funds, institutional, and, retail. And the TLDR is this. Retail investors have been similar positive indicators to hedge funds. So take your dumb money and shove it where the sun don't shine. So if you, so if you did four weeks of positive flows, what are the returns after that? That's what they're looking at here? Correct. Correct. Okay. And then four weeks of negative flows. So the returns are better after positive flows. That makes sense to me. It's the momentum. Yeah, momentum. It's kind of momentum thing, right?

So anyway, that's really interesting. If all you knew was how institutions, hedge funds, and retail were allocating, if you think that you would be able to find any sort of signal in there, guess what? Wrong. I remember my brother asked me once, do you think that I should invest on, like, Thursday every other week because people's 401k money goes on Friday? Everyone knows Wednesday is the best day to invest. Yeah, I don't think the days of the week probably matter all that much.

But is there a seasonality component to this? Because you've talked about seasonality in the past. Is there a best day? I'm sure that someone has done the study of is there a best day of the week? I did. I did. I did probably 10 years ago. Did you really?

Yeah. It probably wasn't Monday, right? Probably had to be like a Tuesday or Wednesday. No, I think it was random. I mean, what do you think? It was random. Okay. Okay.

Delta 1, Walter Bloomberg, allegedly. Is he on Fred's yet? You ever meet that guy at a conference? I've never followed him. I don't know. It's too much. So he tweets these upgrades, downgrades every morning, and sometimes I look sometimes I don't, but this one, this one made me laugh a little bit. This is Netflix.

I guess it caught my eye because it's a stock that I own. This is from Goldman Sachs. All right. Now, mind you, the current price of Netflix is $433. Okay. Goldman Sachs upgrades to neutral from sell. Now, a cell rating is relatively rare. It's usually like buyer hold.

So they upgrade, so to have a sell rate, you got to really be bearish. They upgraded to neutral and they raise their price target from 230 to 400. So think about this. They basically increase their price target by 100%, which is still 5% or 6% below where the stock currently is. And they call that neutral. Your thoughts? I don't know.

Not surprising to me, I suppose. This is kind of how the, you never want to admit you're wrong, first of all, obviously. Do you know how far Netflix is from all-time highs still? I mean, I know they're down 70-some percent. They're still well below all-time highs. Very. Well, this is how the math works. We were joking yesterday.

Still 37%. Carvana is having a decent year. The stock is up 630%. And it's still in a 90%. percent drawn out, which is wild. That all depends on, yeah, where are you looking for when you invested? So here's what, here's a snippet of the commentary that Carcinton Neopold. Netflix, from Goldman, Netflix management has executed its password sharing initiative

in excess of our prior assumptions, an overall industry competition has become more muted. Since we added Netflix to the sell list on June 10th, 2022, Netflix shares are up 100,000, 35% versus a 12% gain for the S&B 500. I've told this story before, but my very first internship in the markets was with sell-side research analysts. I worked for two different cell-side research analysts. I was a senior in college. I knew nothing about the markets.

The first day, the guy's like, dude, start reading the Wall Street Journal because you don't know anything. But I learned a lot about how incentives work, because I remember they'd have, once a a month, they had a big meeting with all of the different industry people for the different stocks and the guy who was the manager would go through and be like we have 135 buys 316 holds and three cells and he like throws a hands up in there and be like guys come on can someone put a cell rating on one of these stocks and all these analysts were like no way man we got to talk to the management all the time we don't want to have a cell rating because so I learned so much about

how incentives work and how like the changing of your mind thing and it's it's a tough so I think any time you're reading these research channels reports like they're great for like a deep dive on the company, but I think if you're using the price targets or the recommendations that throw those out the window basis. Yeah, that's a great point. You can learn a ton from these reports and then just ignore the conclusion unless it confirms your priors. Then go with it. Then go with it. All right. So are we going to have a really low inflation print this month or the used car is not going to hit it yet? Uh, inflation. Use this car will continue again. Used vehicle year-over-year price decline second largest ever

fell 10.3% from a year ago. This is great news, but I'm never getting out of my Audi. How many years old is it now? Four? Well, one of the reasons I was able to get a decent deal on my new explorers because I still had equity in my old one.

Maybe I top-tick the used car market. Did we do this joke before? Yeah, I bought them tech Netflix and I top-tick the car market. Yeah, pretty much. All right. Travel boom is still on. TSA. This is July 1st. Yesterday, TSA officers nationwide screened 2.8, almost 2.9 million individuals beating our previous record on the Sunday after Thanksgiving in 2019. This is the highest number of passengers the agency has ever screened on record.

Ever? Ever. Highest screening ever. Hey, can I say something? I was thinking about this as I was on the airplane. You know how the pre-flight videos are such a charade. right? Well, the worst part about it is if you're watching a movie, it pauses your movie.

Yeah, it's just, it's a joke. But here's an even bigger joke, how if you're in the exit aisle, you have to give a verbal yes. Like, in the event, will you help? Yeah, yeah, no problem.

I'll help. Can we just save everybody's time? If you just eliminate all of the nonsense, how many hours would passengers get back? How about this? You know how they have global.

No more flight delays. No more flight delays. No more flight delays ever. Just get rid of the, Well, you know how they have TSA pre-check. Let's say if you've gone through TSA pre-check, you can watch a video that shows all the safety procedures and click a box and say, I've done this already. You can ignore it. I can safe to ignore it on my screen.

Solutions guy. All right. Travel boom is not at Disney. Maybe this is the time to go. Wall Street Journal headline says, Disney World hasn't felt this empty in years. Travel agents, analysts and advisors say traffic at Disney's theme parks and rival parks has slowed. data from a travel company that tracks line waiting times at Disney shows the Independence Day weekend was one of the slowest in nearly a decade. The Star Wars attraction was the third slowest day

of the past year. Here's what a travel agent says. From what we're seeing in our bookings, that pent-up demand has somewhat transitioned to cruises in Europe from theme parks. So everyone got Disney out of their system and now Disney is slow. This would be the time to go, I guess. Not May. Not May. But can I just say what could? Could the news be any worse for Disney right now? It really could. I was thinking this too. There was a, Josh sent us a report on ESPN, how they had these huge layoffs a week ago, their cleaning house. Disney really is in a bad spot, it seems like.

All right. So as shareholders of the stock, how are we feeling? Not great. Maybe this is the time to get long-term bullish, though. We said when we feel the most bearers, but that's a lot of harder for individual stocks than it is for. I'm just saying technically the stock, if it breaks 85, unless it's a false breakdown, be aware of the false breakdown.

It could be in trouble. But I don't know. Is Disney too big for someone to buy? Is it the only hope? Is it sufficiently cheap? Well, Needham put out a note this morning. Again, listen, you never pay attention to what the sell side says unless it makes you feel good about a stock that you're underwater on.

This is what we're trying to say. So Needham said, we do believe Disney will be purchased during the next three years. Disney owns the best assets in the media business, has no controlling shareholder to block a takeover and has no permanent CEO or CFO that has a conflicting agenda versus public shareholders. Yeah. So, I don't know. The crazy thing was Disney is, remember how I was, like, really bullish on the company

because of Disney Plus. And I said Disney Plus is going to be huge. You nailed Disney Plus. Whatever estimates they laid out, got the stock wrong. Yeah, whatever estimates they laid out for Disney Plus, they blew through those. Like, it was way higher than they ever thought possible. Yeah, and the stock still stunk. I think, I think we're going to Disneyland.

I don't know if this is too ambitious, if we're biting off more than we could show. I think we're taking the boys to Disney. Disneyland in California in April because the boys, like every other child, is obsessed with Mario. Oh, because they have that there? No, Universal Studios is Mario Land. Looks pretty sweet. Why did you decide in California instead of Florida? Mario Land.

First of all, I'm going back to Disney World. That's too much. I just did that. But Mario World is in Universal Studios, California, that's why. So you're running exclusively for that? Yes. Okay. I mean, but we'll also, you know, we'll also do Disney World, Disneyland.

the Harry Potter thing, which I'll be into. Wait, you're a Harry Potter guy? That kind of blows me away. Huge. Really? Yes. Well, my daughter, my daughter right now is... In the time, when did those books, what was that, 2000?

I mean, I read the moment when they came out. My daughter's flying through those books right now. And whatever book she's on right now, it's like the fifth book in the series or something, it's like 837 pages. It's ridiculously long. Oh, yeah. You want to know a little fun fact, Ben? the only

double feature that I've ever been to in my life and I'm looking for the movie right now was uh hold on bear with me oh it was 2001 wait was this it yeah I saw

this is such a weird movie for me to see in 2001 I was 16 years old two and a half hour drama romance I saw Harry Potter the first one with my mom and the majestic a Jim Carrey movie. Do you remember that one?

I didn't really land the plane. It was okay, right? He had amnesia. In 1951, a blacklisted Hollywood writer gets into a car accident, loses his memory, and settles down in a small town where he was mistaken

for a long-lost son. Weird premise. Anyhow, I thought this was an interesting... Harry Potter horror movies for you, huh? Two nights ago, I was watching the 101 scariest scenes and shudder. Ed Robbins's like, what are you doing?

Actually, I made Robin watch Barbarian with me. I didn't make her, but we turned it out. She's like, come on. Is that the one that I ruined at the end for people? With Justin Long? Yeah, that was not bad. That was pretty good. Loved it.

All right, Justin Wolfers tweeted. Let me point out the obvious. Tech bros were wrong about what was happening, even just in their corner of the universe. So he's got a chart showing the number of jobs in computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting, and related services. And there's been no dip. I do wonder if there's some, again, I don't know enough here. Was there some omissions here? But anyway, the TLDR is he's saying tech lieoffs. There's not tech layoffs. Well, maybe it was in different types of jobs. So this is, this is from, let's see, Wang on Twitter. Big TEP companies have

resumed their hiring based on job openings. Total job openings for Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Facebook are up 100%, 40%, 85%, and 162% since the end of Q1. although they're still down a fair amount from a year ago. So you can see there was a drop here for jobs. Maybe it's just more, it's not tech, tech-based jobs, but it's more like managerial type of jobs. But they're all hiring again. So they thought the recession was coming.

They pulled back or there was a tech recession. There was. Now they're, yeah, I think. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know if I buy this chart. It feels like there was a tech recession. But speaking of things that tech people got wrong, Jack Dorsey in October 2021,

I'm sure a lot of people will remember this. Hyperinflation is going to change everything. It's happening. These takes were just really awful in real time and have aged like a fine diaper. Do you think it's helpful or hurtful to know that billionaires can also have dumb takes? Because in some ways, people go, in this one realm, I'm smarter than a billionaire. Or do you think people think like, well, I should be a billionaire too because I'm obviously smarter than this guy in some, some capacity.

We're all humans. I don't know. You know what else he kind of dropped the ball on? His successor at Twitter. Didn't quite handle that very well. Although we're going to talk about threads, but... All right. Let's put a pin in this.

All right. From bespoke, streaks of better than expected non-farm payrolls report is over. In other words, economists were behind the actual consensus was below actual. And that ended. Fourteen months in a row, they were behind. pretty incredible. Yeah, it was under expectation, but still a pretty good job report. Joy Politano breaks down.

It's kind of interesting to see where the jobs have been added. So he said the U.S. has added a 3.8 million jobs in the last year. Seems like a lot. A million in health and health services and private education, 800,000 in leisure and hospitality, 600 in government and public education, all these other things. It's just interesting to see this breakdown, especially so far from the pandemic that we're still adding all these leisure and

hospitality jobs. I don't know, it's, this has to obviously slow at some point, but I think it's safe to say that this expansion in the labor market has gone on longer than anyone could have thought possible. Pretty wild. I was looking, there was a recent Larry Summers speech from like June 2022, where he said, look, the unemployment rate has to be above 5% for like three years to bring inflation down. Like, I think that playbook they were working on in terms of like unemployment rate has to

rise for the inflation to come down. because that's all that we knew in terms of historical analogs? The pandemic ripped up all the textbooks, everything, all the relationships that we thought had to hold, right? And so the next time something happens, people are going to overcorrect because of what happened this time. So I don't think historical data, I don't think historical relationships are dead and buried forever. I do think that there should be some sort of equilibrium between inflation, employers, and interest rates and all that sort of stuff, I just think because of all of the mess that there was a pandemic,

all of those relationships are temporarily broken. Because of how much we spent and... Yes. But I think that the next time something happens, people will overcorrect because of recency buys and it's going to f*** it up. Yeah, you're not going to get the same level of support for the, especially if it's a mild recession. So maybe those relationships go back in the future,

but we're not going to get the same response or even anything close to it. I mean, we'll never see response like this again for recession, I would imagine. In other words, the next time maybe fiscal stimulus would be the right answer, but we're not going to do it because of the inflation that happened this time, even though a lot of the inflation happened because the economy was shut down and they reopened. It is kind of crazy, though. Look at prime age of labor first participation rate. This is 20, ages 25 to 54.

This is prime age. It takes away the people who are older and potentially retiring. It's the highest level it's been since 2001, over 83%, almost 84%. this one is crazy. This is from the New York Times. They talk about how the great resignation is over. Wait, wait. Hang on. Hang on. Don't blow past this real quick. Okay.

So what are the implications of this chart that basically anyone who wants a job can get a job? I think that the thought was in the 2010s, because you can see, look, it kept going down after 2008 and didn't really stop going down until 2016. There was this thought that I think, oh, people are lazy and this is kind of it. we've topped out the number of people who want job. Like, there are certain people who just want to sit around and play video games all day, and they don't want a job. And I think we've shown that if you pay people more money, especially on the low end, they're going to come back to the labor force and work.

And I think that people thought like, okay, this is, this is topped out. We can't go any higher. And that was wrong. And they're talking about how this is New York Times average hourly earnings for rank and file restaurant and hotel workers rose 28% from 2020 to 2022, which is, higher than inflation and wage growth. And there was this research paper by two economists that found that the earnings gap between workers at the top end of the income scale on the bottom, after widening for four decades.

Okay, here's the, what do you say it? The coup de grace. There we go. In just two years, the economy undid about a quarter of the increase in inequality since 1980 between the top and the bottom income. Much of that progress they found came from workers' increased ability and willingness to change jobs. so all of again the pandemic broken all these relationships there's no way anyone could have predicted that would happen that workers would have all this the ability to earn more money in that

inequality like a quarter of the increase in inequality since 1980 was undone in two years that's amazing inflation fixes inequality incredible it is it is kind of hard to i thought inflation i thought inflation hurts people on the bottom among the lowest uh the the the most All right. So we talked about, you talk about like the overcorrection and the next time we have a recession. I think the whole fiscal and monetary policy thing is going to dictate a lot of what happens with relationships. So Lance Lambert said that the average, this is last week, average 30 year fixed rate mortgage jumped to 7.22%. They have this mortgage news day. I don't know if you ever checked this thing. It shows daily rates. This is a 30 year fixed rate mortgage? If the Fed keeps raising rates and the economy keeps rocking a little bit, is 8% actually a possibility? here now? For mortgage rates? I remember I did a Kelsey bet for 8% last year. Like, could mortgage us hit 8%?

I did a yes. I took a flyer, which is crazy to think. So on the other hand, Michael, Michael Antonelli and Colin Roche were talking to this on Twitter. Here's Michael Antealing. A take I'm convinced this to us, the sub 3% 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will be the greatest gift ever bestowed to you as homeowners. And Colin said, Michael is right for now, but we'll see a sub-3% 30-year mortgage rate

within the next 10 years. The whole structure of debt in this economy is, predicated on low rates and will pull rates lower at some point, either through crisis or anemic growth. Hold on, Ben, were you able to hear my wife chattering in the background? I was not. What is she, what is she asking you? Did she ask you to change your shirt?

No, no, no, no. I just, I don't get it how women are able to talk on the phone for so long. Like, what are they talking about? I just, she's on the phone for 40 minutes all the time. And that, I mean, she's on, I guess, summer vacation. I would love to see my average phone call has got to be under a minute. Got to be. Now, I'll do a 10-minute phone call if it's necessary, but... It's rare. 20 minutes for me and you feels very long. That happens maybe once every six

months. No, it happens once a week here on this podcast. Wow, true. So do you think that that is, so my, my, like, hedged take here is a lot of this depends on whether we get fiscal or monetary policy during the next time, because if the government decides we're not going to spend anything and it's all on you again, the Fed, like it was in 2010's, then a 3% rate could be in the cars. But if the government keeps spending and fiscal policy remains a strong tool and that keeps inflation at 3% or 4% versus 1% to 2%,

then maybe low rates aren't going to have it again. What do you think is more likely? 3% mortgages or stay at 5 to 6? 18 months ago, I would have said 3% mortgage definitely. How many time from? Well, Cullen says in the next 10 years, we'll see sub 3% 30-year mortgages. Oh, well, here's a take that didn't age well from us.

If we were patting ourselves in the back earlier, remember when we said we were just going to keep refinancing? Yes. Every, you know, every four years. It takes some equity out and make money. That didn't, uh... Oof. I do agree with Cullen that, like,

the structure of the debt in the economy, like we need, we need low rates. And even if we're going to keep spending, to finance those rates, what would you put your money on? A three percent, sub three percent mortgage the next 10 years or no? I'd have to leave. yes, because I agree with Colin that, like, even if we're going to spend a lot of money in this

country, we need low rates to finance at all. We can't have rates stay 5 or 6% at a short end that's never going to work. I hear that, but is that, I don't know, I'm not smart enough to talk about this stuff coherently. Is that what moves, is that what moves interest rates? It's the fact that we need low rates. So what? I need Disney stock to go up. Doesn't mean it's going to happen. Yeah, I just think that like if if our budget just continues to be consumed by interest costs, eventually, that's going to be a problem. How about this? How about this?

AI. That will, the economy will grow 10 to 12% a year, so it's all good. Don't worry about it. All right. I don't want to bring up demographics because you don't care about that. So we won't even. You know, I don't care about this either. No, no, no.

It's not that I don't care. It's just I find it, it's mental masturbation. All right. So the potential for like 8% mortgages in the short term seems like a possibility, but does it even matter to the, like, when will it matter to the home market? Because this is from Redfin, this is the first time since last August that the average sales to price ratio is surpassed 100%, meaning homes are selling for higher than they are being listed for now. Oh, wow. No, well, it absolutely matters. It matters for the existing year. The first time in a year,

US home price is selling more than it's asking. And, dude, dude, it matters for the existing home market. It doesn't matter for new construction. Yeah. So this is Lance Lambert among the hundred largest markets, only one market Austin saw seasonally adjusted month or once home price decline in May, the other 99 markets all posted an increase. Housing prices are rising again. Crazy. So 7.2% mortgage rates and housing prices continue to rise because supply has been so shrunken down that anything that comes to the market is selling for over-asking price. So, okay, here's what, here's prices that are rising despite interest rates being. at multi-decade highs, homes, which are directly tied to interest rates, and non-profitable

tech, which I thought should be negatively correlated to interest rates. And I still believe that to be the case, but... How about just the stock market in general? Yeah, but high tech in particular, high beta tech in particular. The IPO ETF is ripping, ARC is ripping. Oh, wow. Arc is, holy moly. ARC is at the highest level since August 2022.

I look at it in a good day, though. That fund is still down 80% from the highs, I think. 80? Wow. Hang on. Oh, 70. So it's down 70% from the highs still. I guess it was 80 at the bottom.

Unbelievable. Hey, Ben, look at this house in the dock. We're looking at the modern farmhouse, which the Wall Street Journal says is the millennial answer to the baby boomer McMansion. The house that I'm looking at is, I see Ben smiling, because I'm assuming that you see this all over your houses, all over your town as well. It's a white house. No, this is literally my house. Oh, it is? No, we don't, we don't have the, we have a, we have a white modern farmhouse. We don't have the, the wooden, uh, the wood in front for the, but we have a, we have the black, uh, metal roof. We have the white clapboard,

like they say. I read this article and I realized, oh, they're just literally described my house. two-thirds of new homes in my name. I was early, by the way. We bought ours in 2017. I was early. Now, listen, this is a great house. I love it. Okay, modern farmhouse, a contemporary style that bears a passing resemblance to a traditional farmhouse first entered the American lexicon a decade ago. Okay, sorry, you were not early. On Fixer Upper, the HGTV sensation that catapulted the host, Chip and Joanna Gaines up to the national stage. Guess what? You know, I don't watch HGTV, but you do, right? So you knew about this. Is that, where you found this house? I mean, the builder was doing it this way, but we... Sure, sure, sure.

Yeah, no, we like the... Listen, don't apologize. It's a great house. The National Association of Home Builders, actually, my house... Yeah, I don't know how you could hate on this kind of house. It's a beautiful-looking house. It's a beautiful house. So my house, when I bought it, was just a flat brick house.

And I don't like brick. My wife, I had to, like, twist her arm. Like, who likes brick? It's ugly. I would have much prefer it to be in a house like this. Stay as good forever, though. You know what the downside of a white house is? It gets really dirty.

We had to have like the pay. The downside, that's the upside. You get to power wash that baby twice a year. Oh, yeah. Well, I paid someone to do it because it's getting up three levels. It's kind of hard. Well, you have three levels. Not to brag.

Well, yeah. Well, the basement is, yeah, anyway. The National Association of Home Builders does not track the pocket. I don't have a mudroom, though. I do not have a mudroom. Well, I don't have a basement. Do you have a basement? Yeah, we have a basement.

Okay. But Darrell Patterson, the president of housing design matters, says the look accounts for more than a quarter of her company's work. If a builder says, I need three elevations, one will always be a modern farmhouse. Great house. It really does make sense. Great house. All right, Ben, last week when I was telling you about my friend that has all of his money in the stock market in Neo, one thing that I forgot to mention is he was asking me or I'm asking or telling me that he opened

up accounts for his kids and he bought reits. He just bought reits for them. I assume not individual name. It's probably just an index if I had to guess. And he's like, you know, when I give it to them when they're 20, it's going to be whatever, tens of thousands or however much money it is. And I was reminded of that story when I saw a tweet from Peter Lazaroff. And by the way, mind you, this is a this is not a dumb guy. He just says, he just doesn't know. He's not in finance and he's, I guess, not super interested in it like our listeners are. Peter Lazaroff said, an advisor adds an unbelievable amount of value in three areas. One, peace of mind. Two, expertise. You cannot know what you do not know.

Three, objectivity. Removing unhelpful emotions. And what else would you add? Somebody said execution. And again, seeing this tweet reminded me of that story from last week with this guy, because I think the average person, if you don't know, you don't know. And when I said all this guy's money that's in the stock market is in Neo, I doubt it. I doubt it's all of his money. He probably has all of his money in cash and high yield savings or whatever. And the money that he plays with the stock market, he just has in this stock. Like, just people just don't know the basics. Right. And the execution part is actually like, the thing is like there's probably 35 different financial plans you could create for someone or allocations or like different levers you could

pull that they would probably be fine in most instances. But it's, it's like narrowing down to this is what we're going to do and this is how we're going to execute it. Like that's, that's the hard part for most people is, is like the choices they have. They're just like, Paralyzed by choice. So just saying like, listen, this is the one we're going to do. We're not going to know what the perfect one is going to be until we have hindsight to look back on. So this is the one we're going to do and we're going to be happy with it because we've taken all these different factors into account and this is the way we're going to do it. Are you on board of this? And most people just tell us like, yes, I just appreciate having this plan in place and

I know what we're going to do regardless of what happens in the market because no one can predict what's going to happen in the market. I could hear some listeners screaming, well, this is why we should teach personal finance in schools. I think like the psychological component is the biggest one. If I went back to, you know, I studied finance in college, if I would have had to do it all over again, I would have, like, I would have taken a bunch of psychology classes to understand the human nature side of things. Because that is, it's so much more important. Don't you think? Like, learning that stuff was, no. I don't think, I don't think learning about behavioral finance is more important than learning the basics. You don't need to be a, you don't need to be a behavioral finance expert to, as an advisor that you need to understand. I think for almost any job you're in, you have to understand human nature. It doesn't matter if it's finance. answer to anything else. I think understanding human nature and the things that make people tick and the incentives and all that stuff and why people react to the way they do to certain

things, I think understanding that is helpful in any job you do. True. Yeah, agreed there. All right, let's talk about Twitter. So threads to me feels like the first actual threat to Twitter. They had 100 million signups in five days. And I am not threading yet. Maybe I will, maybe I won't. probably one. I don't really, I don't tweet anymore. But opening threads was kind of wild because it was Twitter. It looked like Twitter. Everybody was there. It's the first one that has, because people have been telling us for a while, there's a guy we work with, I won't name his name, name by name, but he always tells us, hey, you guys have to send up from Macedon and blue sky and post. And every time I've been like, why, why do I don't, there's no way these are, there's no way these are

going to work. And sorry, Josh, I didn't mean to argue there. But he, but he, but he, I think he's wanted a new thing. And this is the first one that's like, oh, this is real. People are actually going over. And you open it up, but I've tried it a little bit. And it does feel like Twitter has, Twitter's not dead. I think both of these can probably coexist. But Twitter has peaked.

Did you read this Eugene Way piece about how to blow up a timeline? He talked about how Twitter has peaked and totally changed and gotten worse. And I don't really buy into the fact that Twitter's gotten worse. I think people are just kind of fed up a bit. Oh, my God, it has. Of course it has. well the changes they've made have certainly made it worse in it but it was it Twitter was better like pre like 2018 or something remember like the mid 2010s were like peak Twitter for us it peaked a while ago but in terms of the community and just being a fun vibrant place but just the user experience has gotten shitty and I still even though I am not posting on Twitter I still use it almost as much as I ever have news construction just just for content purposes and filling up the doc for this podcast but I do want to read something that Eugene Way wrote.

He said, this past year, for the first time I could see the end of the road for Twitter. Not in an abstract way. I felt it's declined. Don't misunderstand me. Twitter will persist in a deteriorated state, perhaps indefinitely. However, it's already a pale shadow of what it was at its peak. The cool kids are no longer sitting over in bottle servers knocking out bang your tweets. Instead, the timeline is filled with more and more strangers.

The bounce are let into shill their tweet storms. Many of them Twitter verified accounts who paid the grand fee of $8 a month for the privilege. In the past year, so many ran. random meetings I have with one-time Twitter junkies being with a long sigh and then a question of a question that is more lamentation than anything else. How did Twitter get so bad? Well, the crazy thing to me is the fact that remember in Rocky 4 when the Russian gets cut and they're in the corner like, he's bleed and he's cut and like Rocky sees his opportunity. Like this is what happened. Like I don't think it sounds to me like Facebook put this together

in like a matter of months for threads. Like they didn't want to release it, but they saw Elon Musk's clown car over here like messing things up and not letting people see a number of tweets if they don't pay money and all this stuff and they like I think they just took an opportunity that they probably didn't even want to and it probably worked out better than their most wild dream so I think Elon Musk basically allowed this to happen

which is just crazy to me that like it deteriorated this much of this fast and Elon is definitely feeling the pressure he's flannel like a maniac he tweeted somebody Zuck is a cuck, I propose a literal dick measuring contest. Those are things that he actually tweeted and then he, I don't know if this is like, if they're suing Twitter, but here's a letter. Dear Mr. Zuckerberg, I write on behalf of X-Corp, a successor and interest to Twitter based on recent reports regarding your recently launched Threads app Twitter's

serious concerns that meta has engaged in a systematic, willful and unlawful misappropriation of Twitter's trade secrets. Over the past year, met us hired dozens of four Twitter, Twitter, whatever. Yeah, you fired everybody. What do you expect? But here's the thing. So Zuckerberg said, the vision for threads is to create an open and friendly public space for conversation. We hope to take what Instagram does best and create a new experience around text ideas and discussing what's on your mind.

So they're not going to copy Twitter exactly. Like, I already think threads looks better than Twitter. It's a really cool experience. But do you think you can do Instagram for text? Like, can you have that? Obviously, 100 million people signed up. But I don't know. what does Instagram have two or three billion users?

Like, do you think that it's viable to have Instagram for text and Twitter over here to do this other stuff that you really pay attention to for sporting events and live stuff and news consumption? Like, is it possible to have both? I think it probably like- Oh, yeah, why not? Yeah, why not? The people are on Instagram, like they obviously either tried Twitter or never tried it

and just have no use for it because the users have not been growing for years. So to that point, Twitter is not adding new users. Like a 15-year-old is not signing up for a Twitter account. Why in the world would they? Right. But is it also bizarre that Elon Musk has screwed this up so royally that now people are like looking at Zuckerberg like he's a savior? Do we really want Facebook and Instagram and Instagram for Twitter to be run by the same person? Remember a few years ago when everyone said Mark Zuckerberg like ended democracy because he helped rig the election in 2016?

Those same people are like, yay, threads is awesome. I can't believe this is happening, that people are allowing, like allowing one company to potentially take over the three biggest social media platforms other than TikTok. People are okay with this. I'm shocked by that. I guess it's all relative because people hate Elon Musk enough to like Mark Zuckerberg again. I just can't believe this is where we've gotten. Eugene Wayne made another great point about just why nobody copied Twitter because

there was such a bad business model. Right. Here's another clip of Fizz that I wanted to read. of all the social networks that achieved some level of scale in this first era of social media, perhaps no other was tried and abandoned by as many users as Twitter, except for the extremely online community of which I'm deeply embedded, most normal, well-adjusted humans churned out of Twitter long ago. That is so true. I don't think I have, and I don't know anybody who's on Twitter. No, like your regular normal people that you interact with? I mean, yeah, there's a few

that for sports, but for the most part, nobody's on Twitter. It's only us. It's only finance dorks and econ nerds and people that are arguing over politics and really online people. Yeah, it's really. So, all right, we spoke early about billionaires and I don't know what you said. I forgot what we said about them. Also, does it make us feel better that billionaires can make mistakes? Go ahead. What were you going to say? No, I just, I never got into any social media networks beyond Twitter. Twitter's always been my only one. I signed up for Instagram a few years ago. I think a bunch of people told me that I already have some fake thread people. I think my handled like Ben Carlson 007.

And I didn't do that because I like James Bond. I think it was like the only number that was one of the lowest numbers that was available. Why can't you just say you like James Bond? 007 was the only number you could land upon? Come on. I think they recommend it. I don't like James.

I'm of the opinion that Jason Bourne is better than James Bond. That's my hot take. If you didn't like James Bond, you would change it to 006. Okay. I think seven minute apps. But where was I going with this? I just, I've never got into, I think it's a kind of a chore to get into another social,

like I never got into TikTok. I didn't like Facebook because I didn't really care about my friends posting about their lives every day. I figured I'd catch up them when I'd catch up with them because, you know, nostalgia is the best part of old friendships, not like knowing what's going on in your life now. And so this is the first time that I've actually tried a new social meet. Like, Instagram just never took for me.

It was never, like I always felt weird posting pictures and captioning them. I love it. Instagram. Okay. It just, it never took for me. It wasn't like I, I understand it, but it just never took for me. This is, I think, but wait, but wait, but where do you shop? Okay. So, back to Twitter and the business. By the way, where we were, if Twitter was a publicly traded stock. So he bought it for 44 billion. Where's the market cap? Six. Ten. Realistically, realistically, 10. Um, uh, Andresen said this to Elon when he was considering, when he wanted to buy it, I think this is from leaked private

messages. If you are, Mark Andreessen to Elon Musk, if you are considering equity partners, my growth fund is in for $250 million with no additional work required. They ended up giving $400 million. Now, I don't think that this makes, in fact, this does not make Mark Andreessen a dumb guy. Mark Andreessen is not a dumb guy. With the benefit of hindsight, this might look dumb, but he's a very smart man. In fact, incredibly so. Sequoia, invests. $800 million. Cutter Investment Authority, $375 million. Prince Awolid bin Talal al-Saoud owned $2 billion worth of Twitter stock.

When it was a publicly traded company, he rolled it over. Larry Ellison forked over a billion dollars. Jack Dorsey, a billion dollars from his existing shares. Morgan, Stanley, Bank of America, and Barclays collectively lent $13 billion. Anyway, I give all those numbers to say, all of those numbers are down well in excess of 50%. I don't know where, what the value is of Twitter. but they have to assume that this is a permanent write-down.

During a time when tech stocks have been going crazy. Not all tech stocks. I mean, a lot of. A lot of them. Like a cap. I mean, Twitter, had this never happened, let's assume that Jack Dorsey was still at the helm or whoever was on Twitter.

I still think Jack Dorsey is a lot of blame here too because he never did anything to make the product better. He did a horrible job. Horrible. Didn't monetize it. Horrible. So anyway, but let's just say that Elon never. ball Twitter. So if Twitter was a publicly traded stock today with Elon at the helm, I'm saying

it's sub-10 billion dollars. If he never took over, guess what? It still might be 10 billion or 15 or 20, yeah. Probably not 20. I think that's what it was. So it's, yeah, I mean, tough, not a good business. Not a good business. All right, Danny Meyer, on tipping, if you're just taking out food and it was just a transaction, I give you money, you give me a cup of coffee. I don't think there's any obligation to tip whatsoever. Do you tip on takeout? I do. I usually give a few boxes. And I think I've been tipping more since the pandemic for that, if they, for them, like, getting it ready. How about you? I think I do.

No, in fact, I know I do. I give a few dollars, depending on the order. I'll give a few bucks. But I'm, so at the beach club, I tip the, the, the, uh, Valley Parker's pretty well, because, you know, I used to be in the industry. Not just a hospitality industry. We don't need to go into that, but I was an actual Valley Parker. For the company that parks at my beach, guess what? I got fired from the job.

We don't need to get into that right now. Okay. So I always give at least $5, depending on the bills that I have available. Usually I give 10 if I have a 10. So I gave the guy, this is on July 4th. And it was late-ish. It was probably 8 o'clock. So I gave the guy at 20.

I asked for $10 back. He did not give me $10 back. What do you think I did? What do you mean? Let him have it? No, I gave him a 20 and I asked for $10 and change. He didn't give me $10. I guess he probably didn't hear me.

What do you think I did? Complained to the manager? I don't know what Nothing Let him have it Yeah, let him have it Okay I can't think

I asked Well I guess I could have said I asked him But you know He worked hard And guess what He even Now he knows me Okay

There you go You know what I watched Over the weekend Why do I watch That used to be my So we had a bar We went to in college And like right when

Happy Hour started Everyone had rushed to the bar Like happy hour Was like four to six And What me and my friend would do is we would show up at 3.30 and have a beer, a leisurely beer, and then tip the bartender really well

so that when happy hour started, they would come take our order first. Smart man. So Amazon Studios is in trouble. They're putting out, they're spending a lot of money, and they're not really getting much to show for it. Well, what's it called? The Lord of the Rings, huge flop, horrendous, unwatchable. Bloomberg did a story.

In the past nine months, Amazon has released at least half a dozen pricey series that failed to deliver huge audiences, Daisy Jones and the 6th, which I love. I like that one. I like that one. I liked it a lot. The power, I don't know what that is, dead ringers and peripheral. Guess what? I never heard of any of those. They all cost over $100 million. But failed to crack the top 10 list for Nielsen's. Rings of power, $400 million. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Failed to hold onto most of its viewers. Okay. So there's a chart. Dead Ringers has a 7.5, and it's with Rachel Wise. I'd try that. I love Rachel Wise. Dead Ringers.

Have you ever heard of this? Mm-mm. Ooh, Jeremy Irons. Doesn't look bad. Jeremy Irons is a successful gynecologist, works at the same practice as an identical twin, Beverly, who's also played by Jeremy Irons. Okay. Elliot is attracted to many of his patients and has affairs with them.

When he inevitably loses interest, he will give the woman over to Beverly, the meeker of the two, without the woman knowing the difference. See, this is a... Beverly falls hard for one of the patients, but when she inadvertently deceives him, he slips into a state of madness. Oh, wait a minute.

This is from 1988. That's a David Kronenberg movie. Okay. Wait, what? You lost me. All right, moving on. Wait, hang on. That was funny.

I just read a premise of a movie from 1988. Deadbringer's Prime... What is this? Twin Gynecologist. Oh, it's a remake. Oh, must be. Okay. That's kind of funny.

Anyhow, I watched the Terminalists over the last week. Thoughts? Did you watch it? I like that one. Chris Pratt. Here's my thought. I like Chris Pratt as a leading man. Should have been six episodes, maybe even five.

Agree. It was a little too long. A lot of fat. A lot of fat there. But yeah, I liked it. Global Platform Demand Share for All Streaming Originals. Netflix is still a king, 38%. Prime is next, 10.8%.

So, I mean, I still love the platform. It's just the original stuff is not doing so well. If Prime Video were publicly traded streaming service stock, be in the toilet, right? Yes, I agree. They're lucky they have other. But that's the problem with these big ones that spend a ton of money. If they're not seeing returns, if they back out, then where is the investment in good entertainment going to come from? If Apple and Amazon back out now, we're screwed.

Oh, just got a heads up from Nicole, our social media manager. Animal Spirits, Tropical Burl's shirts are back in stock as of now. Boom! Huge news. We sold out earlier. They're back in stock as of today. If you missed it the last time, we got all sizes back. There we go. All right.

I think this is the worst movie year ever. This is the top rated movie so far from IMDB. Spider-Man Across the Spider-Bers. You know the thing that really irks me about Spider-Man fans? literally every time a new Spider-Man movie comes out and there's been probably 12 of them, they go, the tagline will be, this is the greatest Spider-Man movie ever made.

For every one of them that says that. That's just not true. It can't be, right? No, no, no, I'm a Spider-Man fan, and the Spider-Man movies have been phenomenal. Come on, phenomenal. Very fun. I mean, it's a superhero movie.

It's a lot of fun. The Tom Holland movies are great. The one where they had all the Spider-Man was great. All the Spider-Man was great. All the Spider-Man was great. The Spider-VerS-1s-Con, that's probably little kids. Hang on. Time-out. The Spider, the most recent one with Tom Holland and Andrew Garfield and Toby, I agree,

was a little too much. But the Spider-Verse movies are not just for little kids. Yes, they are for little kids, but they're also for grown-ups. They're great movies. I haven't seen the second one yet, but... Nerds. All right. Guardians of the Galaxy, John Wick 4, Covenant Air is the only one on here that I think is a quality movie

is air. A man called Otto. Hang on, hang on, hang on, hang on. Time out. The Covenant is supposed to be very good. I have not seen it yet. I'm going to. Guy Richard.

Why are you on your eyes? You know what it is? Oh, which one is that? It's not a horror movie. It's the Jake Gyllenhaal. No, it's Jake Gyllenhaal. Jake Gyllenha, I think Jake Gyllenha. It's an army movie with Guy Ritchie as a director.

Oh, okay. Tetris, Dungeons and Dragons, the Flash and Missing. I think air is the only one on here that I've seen his quality. I think this is maybe the worst movie year ever for modern movies. The first half was terrible. I did seem the Napoleon preview. Looks sick. It looks awesome.

That looks awesome. Here's what's on the back half. So this is a second half story. We've got Dune Part 2, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Barbie. I'm reading Killers of the Flower Moon right now, the book. I'm reading the book. I read it when it came out, not to brag. Mission Impossible and Napoleon.

That's a pretty good back half. I'll go see Mission Impossible at theater, maybe Napoleon. I'm sorry. I'm totally anti- Barbie. I'm sick of it. Shoving the pink stuff down my throat. It looks so dumb. I'm not going to, well, but you not see Oppenheimer?

I'll see Aubenheimer looks good. Okay. Those are some decent movies coming back, but it's pretty bad. All right, recommendations. Okay. Eric Davis tweeted, it's super rare for a movie franchise to have four installments rank in the 90s in Rotten Tomatoes. Toy Story has done it for animation.

Spider-Man and the MCU have done it, but with multiple series, 00-7 has done it. Ooh, 00-7, there you go. Mission Impossible, out here making history. You know what the weird? The weird thing is, my take on Mission, I love Mission Impossible movies. the first two movies were the worst ones in the franchise. Like, the first one is almost impossible to follow.

I love that in the theater. It's not that, the second one wasn't like, I think the first two were the worst ones of all. The last few have been awesome. Amazing. Okay. I want to plug something called Mint Comedy. That's Mint Comedy.com.

What is Mint Comedy? A dad friend in the neighborhood told me about it. you can stream live comedy from the comedy seller. How freaking cool is that? Oh, really? Interesting. How awesome. So I'm going on Thursday.

$8.99 a month. Isn't that awesome? Not bad. I'm seeing Dan Naderman, who I love, Colin Quinn, Keith Robinson, and Andrew Schultz. Didn't you see Colin Quinn with me that one time? He was awesome. Yeah, I feel like he's always there. I've seen him a lot.

But it's not a great lineup. It's not bad. All right, so meant comedy if you're a comedy fan. All right. I forgot to mention this the other week. I saw it on the airplane. When I saw the trailer for 65, the Adam Driver movie with dinosaurs, I was like, I'm in. In fact, I'm all in.

Guess what? I heard it was terrible. Probably the worst movie I've seen in the last 10 years. Really? That bad. Just thoroughly, thoroughly unwatchable. Top to bottom. I don't know.

I don't know what happened. It was very odd. They're doing courtroom drama month on the rewatchable. which is, I don't know it's my favorite genre, but it's got to be one of the best genres, right? Yes, I love, it's kind of sad that there are no good court movies anymore. So they did primal feel first, which I was thinking, that's a really, that was not a great, weird name for a movie. I don't even know what that means. I saw Primal Fear when it came out.

I was 11 years old and still remember the feeling of seeing Ed Norton clap at the end. No spoilers. But if you're a young listener. It's a little late for the spoiler, but yeah. Well, it's a little late, but I'm being generous. If you haven't seen Primal Fear, stop everything. In fact, press pause right now. Go watch it and come back.

It was easier to do a twist back then. And then the next one, which also is a classic, a time to kill. God would a movie. Yeah. See, we need more John. Also 96. Also 96. Okay.

Someone actually emailed us and said, watch the drop. It's on HBO Max. It's with Tom Hardy. I watched it when it came out in 2014. Tom Hardy and James Gandalfini. And one of my favorite tropes from a gangster movie is the guy at the bar who is kind of around all the gangsters, but he's kind of quiet, maybe a little slow. But you know, like, in the back of it, like, he's seen some stuff. This is a, and Tom Hardy is that guy.

It's a, it's kind of a slow burn, but the end is very, very good. And really good, like, kind of like minor gangster movie. I don't think I've ever heard of this. You know who's a big time that guy? I'm just looking at the cast. John Ortiz. Yeah, he plays the detective in it. He's good.

And finally, Uncle Buck is on Netflix, and I turned on the first half of it with my wife through the night. And there's a difference between, I think one of the biggest internet misconceptions is the difference between this is the best thing ever or this is my favorite thing.

And Uncle Buck is not one of the best movies ever. It is easily one of my favorite movies ever because I'm a huge John Candy fan. And you saw it when you were nine. But there are so many iconic scenes and lines in this movie that still hold up. Here's the thing. It came out in 1989.

John Candy was 39 years old. I'm going to be 41 next month. I need to, I need like a definitive, like 10-page magazine article on why people used to look so much older than they do now. There's no way that I, I right now, I'm older than John Candy was in Uncle Buck, but I am. People these days look so much younger than people did in the past. How is that possible? I don't know if I've ever seen Uncle Buck.

I feel like I must have. I can't tell you anything about it. Okay, I don't want you to watch it because you're going to ruin it for me by saying that you didn't like it. So just don't watch it. Please. It's just, it's, it's, it's sacrosanct. It's one of my favorite John Hughes movies ever.

I just, I love, love that movie. I think John Candy is so good and he's just, he's the best. Oh my God, I nailed it. Sacrosanct means regard as too important they're valuable to be interfered with. You know what? Out of respect. Thank you. I won't watch it.

Leave it alone. Can I watch the Great Outdoors? Yes, I love, oh, that's a great idea for the summer. I love the great outdoors. All right, remember, Tropical Bros is back. Tropical Bros. look for Animal Spirits collection on there. I think the other collections I have are USA like you're wearing, and then Natty Light, so we're in good company.

Email us, Animal Spiritspot at gmail.com, and we'll see you next time.