Animal Spirits Podcast - It Was a Very Good Year (EP.393)

Episode Date: January 1, 2025

On episode 393 of Animal Spirits, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss: the year that was in the stock market, expectations for 2025 returns, the Steve Ballmer portfolio, record ETF flows, the new normal of speculation, rich retirees who won't spend their money, the new normal of 7% mortgage rates, eff you money vs. your job, speaker phones, travel budgets, and much more! This episode is sponsored by YCharts and Fabric by Gerber Life. Get 20% off your initial YCharts Professional subscription when you start your free trial through Animal Spirits (new customers only). Sign up at: https://go.ycharts.com/animal-spirits Join the thousands of parents who trust Fabric to protect their family. Apply today in just minutes at https://meetfabric.com/spirits. Sign up for The Compound newsletter and never miss out: thecompoundnews.com/subscribe Subscribe to The Unlock newsletter: https://www.advisorunlock.com/subscribe Find complete show notes on our blogs: Ben Carlson’s A Wealth of Common Sense Michael Batnick’s The Irrelevant Investor Feel free to shoot us an email at [e-mail] with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation. Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's Animal Spirits is brought to you by our friends at YCharts. Michael, my dream of having an AI assistant is, I don't know, not too... Nobody, Ben, you've said it. Nobody likes to hear dreams. All right. It's not too far off. But YCharts is already kind of like your AI assistant for financial advisors, right? It's a balancing act.

You're dealing with current client portfolios, financial planning issues, talking to prospects. Wide Charts proposals helps advisors save time, grow AOM, and improve client communication. They have these templates that you can use. wait, so what's your dream? No, I'm saying Y charts does it for you. I just want to, I want to, why charts is a dream. Yeah, Y charts is a dream, right? So they have these templates you can use for advisors. They have thousands of charts that you can use. It just makes your life a little bit easier by using their proposal tool, taking the current client portfolio, upload it into a portfolio

tool, and then kind of comparing contrast what you can do for them, what's already being done for them. Would you say it's a life hack? Very easy. Yes. It's like, it's like a cold plunge for advisors? Yes. I've still never done that before that sounds great. I prefer a hot tub, if I'm being honest. Go to whitecharts.com. Tell them, Manil Spirits, sent you 20% off when you sign up for your first subscription. We love White Charts. Happy New Year, everyone there. Today's show is brought to you by Fabric. Fabric by Gerber Life is term life insurance you can get done right from your couch, online, and on your schedule. You could be covered in under 10 minutes with no health exam required. Ben,

we got an angry listener. We said we weren't going to air dirty the laundry. So should we not? Well, I think someone just misunderstood what insurance is. And insurance, as our team at Reholtz always tells us, is kind of protecting something, protecting an asset or a loved one in the event that something goes wrong. And someone said, hey, what are you trying to sell me insurance on my child for?

And it's like, no, you're not buying the insurance for the kid. You're buying insurance on yourself in case something happens to you. They would be taken care of. Right. That's what the insurance is for. That's what Fabric can do for you. It's very easy. Term life insurance you can get ripped up from your couch all online, all on your own schedule.

Could be covered under 10 minutes, no health exam required. Very easy. Go to meetfabric.com slash spirits to learn more. It's meetfabric.com slash spirits to learn more. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ridholt's wealth management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and

should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ridholt's wealth management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. I will be the hundredth person to say this. Not very new, but every day for the past week and a half has felt like a Saturday or a Sunday. Fair. But this is, this is why we need Fridays. And this is why you and I aren't ready to retire as young bucks, because you need something to look forward to. And every day is a Saturday or Sunday, it can be fun. But eventually, you need the, I'm a big fan of moderation as I age. In my younger days, I was not, I was not really good at moderation when it came to, you know, eating, drinking, these sorts of things. I didn't know

how to control myself. Now, in older life, I realize you have to make it a treat. So that's why you You want to look forward to the Friday to enjoy the Saturday and Sunday. You can't have every day be Saturday and Sunday. So what are you saying? Because the last week and a half was like vacation week and everybody was shut down and every day felt like a Saturday. Well, every day felt like a Saturday or Sunday because it's holidays or the day before a holiday or the day after a holiday. And yeah, yeah, just it's been great, but you need to break it up a little. We're recording this on December 31st.

New Year's Eve? New Year's Eve. You're not a New Year's Eve guy, are you? This is the first year I could ever remember where we don't have plans for New Year's Eve. how'd that happen? Did you say to Courtney, I'm out? You put your foot down? It didn't really happen. It just sort of fizzled out. And we had, we went on a little trip this weekend and we came back yesterday and we thought like, I don't know, do we need to do something New Year's Eve? Does it matter? We have kids. I love it. I've been gone for a week,

got home yesterday and we're having people over tonight. I like my friends, but I'd rather be alone, if I'm being honest. Yeah, I don't mind at all. This is middle age. Welcome to Middle age, Ben, where you don't have plans on New Year's and you don't care. Yeah. So next week, you're going to give us a story where you go out to pick up a salad and then the salad was really $80, right? That's what going to happen for New Year's Eve. Hey, that did happen one year. Of course.

Matter of fact, matter of fact, I said, nope, we did this, right? On the podcast a couple years ago, they tried to charge me $80 for a Caesar salad. I said, open that salad up. I opened it up. It was lettuce and parmesan cheese, and there were as quutons. I said, no. And you said, listen, I'm in the service industry. You're in the service industry.

Speaking of which, before we get into it. You know what? I did that at dinner the other night. And Vapa goes, why do you always tell people that you were a waiter, too? They don't care. I'm trying to relate. Your ice breakers are being bald and... Yeah, you know what?

Because speaking of being bald, I put a pin in that. My wife did the whole, like, we're not ready, come back. Can we put the kids in order? And I turned to the waitress. I said, there's always one of these, right? I was in the industry, too. And she's like, stop doing that. So anyhow, last week we spoke about, or you, you touched a cord, Ben.

apparently with the bingo card getting rid of the bingo card that was popular we got a lot of people say yeah what the hell is that who plays bingo anyway and I think the most common alternative we got was I did not have that in my parlay oh I like that that was not in my parlay this week

yeah that's a good one so let's try that another phrase that I want to eliminate I don't know why I thought about this maybe I saw an ad or something male pattern baldness what I guess I She's bald. It doesn't sound very good, yeah.

Male pattern baldness, don't make it any more insulting than it already is. I'm bald. That does. It sounds like a disease you're dying of. Oh, no, he's got middle pattern baldness. How long is he out? Yeah, yeah, no, he's got six months to shave. Okay, so my dream of a 30% year is gone.

Why? In stock market, well, I don't, it's only 1130, Ben. It's the last day of the year. The S&P 500 is up 26% or so on the year. So still a 25% or so gain, I guess. depending on where today shakes out. I'm surprised that, I mean, doesn't seem like they should just close the market

for a week at the end of the year? Like, what's the point? Yeah, who's trading? Really, right? Okay. Good article by Bloomberg. The Ben Carlson forecasting strategy model is gaining steam.

Very fast, my friend. Get on board. Make no forecasts? No, my forecasting model of using historical ranges in the way that the stock market acts. Bloomberg had a piece on this. Oh, that is good. I'm on board with that.

And they said that they looked at every strategist, they looked at the range of strategy results and then the average and then the actual results going back to 2000 every single year and they looked at and it's of course wildly off

and they said over the past 25 years 53% of the forecast surveyed by Bloomberg clustered between zero and 10%. So most of the time strategists pick between zero and 10%

which we know rarely happens and doesn't happen very often they said in seven of the past eight years the market's return were outside of the range of all forecast compile. That means the high and the low in the market, and the market still, and so most of the time it underestimates the return is what they're saying. If I had to give my gut instinct on 2025, just from my gut.

Drum roll, please. I think it could be a disappointing year for stocks this year, based on expectations. Why caveat it? Why caveat it? You can't knock Grand Rapids Hedge? You can't not do it? Of course, I have to. Obviously, of course, I don't invest with my gut, so I wouldn't But I think expectations are too high. That's where I land. I feel like I would, I know some people are saying, like, oh, this is the 90s all over again. It does feel a little like late 2020, early 2020-ish, 2021-ish to me.

I think I intercepted this into your brain. You asked me if I think what's more likely the stocks to be up 20% or down? I sit down, right? I think you did. So I just, I think relative to expectations, stocks could, that's just my thinking is expectations are way too high going into the year compared to what they usually are. Ben, know where I thought you were going with this. I thought you were going to talk about Torson Slok's post where he gave predictions with probabilities. And I'm a bit peeved. Not at him at myself. That I didn't put out my 10

predictions yet for 2025, which, by the way, Robin's not too thrilled. I think I'm going to the city tomorrow because I need a day to myself to do these predictions. She said, whoa, whoa, kids are off. I said, I've been off for a week. I'm going back to work. You're going to wait. You're going to the office on New Year's Day? Yeah. Okay. That's how you do it. That's psychotic behavior.

Yeah, no, it is on. But you need your Friday to look forward to. That's what you're trying to do. All right. Listen, I can see, though, as a person, you've seen the comic before where it's like young person going into the office on a Monday and they're all like sad. And it's like person with kids going into the office on Monday and they're like joyful. I do have plans in the city that night with my brother and sister.

So I'm going in anyway, but I'm going to take the day because I've worked to do. But anyhow, I think I said this. last year. In fact, I'm almost positive I did. So keep me honest, Ben, that when I do my predictions in the following year, meeting 2025, I'm going to put some odds on it, right? Because there was one or two predictions that I made that I really was like, you know, 5% chance. So Torses and Slag beat me to the punch. But I want to set the records trade. And I'm not copying him. And I'm not saying he's copied me. You've done this before. Yeah, you've been talking about odds. So I think you need to put yours in, he did it in percentages. You need to

be yours in draft king style. I'm going to do, I'm going to do both. I'm going to do Fandu style, and then I'm going to convert it for the layman who doesn't understand. We also need Michael's Parley of the year, though. Like, you need to do an outlandish one at the parlay. By the way, so I gave one pre-NFL season Futures bet, right? It was Caleb Williams to get over 3,500 yards. Oh, did that actually hit? I was, because I was making fun of you about that one.

Well, last week I was feeling pretty good. He was at like 3,300. I had two weeks to get 200 yards. He threw for a measly 122 yards last week. So he's at $33.93. So he needs a buck away because it's $3,500 and a half. So I feel pretty good. I was at the sports book last week in Bahamara watching this game.

And the second half, specifically the fourth quarter, was pure comedy. There was people that were like literally hemming and howling about how bad the Bears' clock management was. I assume he didn't watch a game because there's no reason for you to watch a game. No. Who are they playing? Yeah. They were playing the Seahawks. And it was catastrophically bad.

Bahamara is one of my favorite places on Earth. You've been there a few times, right? Yeah, there's a, and we're going back in October, future proof. It's going to be a blast. So definitely come if you're interested. There's a sports book. There's a casino. There's a water park.

There's a million pools. There's Miami vices. What else do you need in life? There's a beach. There's great restaurants. You actually look at you got a little color. There was, uh, did I, well, it was not, it was not a sunny vacation, unfortunately. It was overcast almost every day. But I, I didn't let it stop me or slow me down, right? We're on

vacation. We're in paradise. Kids are in the pool. It was warming off. So it just, it just wasn't sunny, which is fine. There was one person who I heard her say, another day in paradise. And it was a sarcastic another day in paradise because it was gray. I don't want, I thought like, come on. Where would you, where would you rather be? I understand the weather is not. not that accommodative, but people are ungrateful. I agree. Anyhow, I saw one thing at the kiosk that, uh, just two quick stories on the Bahamara. People, the gambling, the gambling like, like crazy people.

There was one dude in front of me who hit, who, who didn't hit. He bet a four leg parlay of four different players to each score first touch out on a bet. You can imagine what the odds were. It's like 20,000 to one or something like that. There's only two kiosks. And now it's Sunday morning, there's a line, right? because people are waiting to bet. There's a dude in front of me.

I hate this person. I hate this person. I don't know, but I hate him. He was taking forever. And he was probably, in fairness, he was a kid. He was probably 20 years old or something like that. See, there should be more things in life that come with a shot clock. I say this all the time about the ATM.

If you can't get done to the ATM in 60 seconds, closes. So I hate, I am, not to brag, I am extremely considerate of others in my surroundings. I'm a considerate driver. I'm a considerate traveler. I am generally a considerate person. I know what the people behind me are like, come on, your time is up, right? I'm one of those. Consider it.

This person had no consideration. He was at the kiosk forever. And did I say anything? No, I didn't because I'm also not a jerk. But come on. And then I look over his shoulder and he has 15 bucks in there. And the girl that he was with, she keeps looking back at us and she's like, and it's her responsibility to tap him like, right?

Yes. Jerks. So he's like the guy in diehard, like, I'm almost there. I'm almost there. Give me a minute. You're betting 15 bucks. There's a line full of people. Have some consideration.

Be a decent person. All right, at the blackjack table, there was a guy who had an ace and a four. Now, I am a by the rules person. I almost never break the rules. Right? There's a book. You have to follow. Yeah, if you're in blackjack, you have to follow the rules.

The game is hard enough. Don't make it any harder than it has to be. So this gentleman had an ace and a four. And the dealer was showing like a. seven or whatever. And he said, I'll stay. I said, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, it's a free card. You have a soft five. You can't bust. You can't bust. So whatever he drew, she drew, and she won. And he said to me, thanks for the advice. And a sarcastic tone? Oh, yeah. And I went and I didn't say anything. I just, because I was just so stunned at the asswholeness of this

response. And my advice, obviously, was like, go upstairs, get out of here. What are you doing? don't you think there should be there should be blackjacked a test involved like you have to tell like three three different hands before you sit on the table what would you do here yeah seriously so there's i i really don't like like angry gamblers right i understand losing money is not fun oh i love i'm a happy gambler i'm a really happy gambler but you're there to have fun yes you lose a few bucks you're paying for entertainment hello you really think you're going to win yes i'm not ashamed to say i've been a catchphrase guy in the past gambling. Well, what does that mean? Like everyone, if you get a, uh, if you get a blackjack, there's a catchphrase. What is it? Well, each, each time you're playing, it's a different

catchphrase, obviously. Depends a group of you with. This is new to me. What's your catchphrase? Give me one. Okay. There was a bachelor party one time. And I, I was on, we, we gambled till the synobun was opening next door next to the casino, right? Probably wasn't the finest establishment in the world. And every time we hit a 21, we said blammo. Blamma. pretty sure blammo, that was it. And, uh, yeah, it was a fun night. We all walked away with money. We all walked away with free beers all night. I don't even know how much I won, but it was a fun of saying blammo. And the dealers were into it. Sometimes the dealer is not into it. Like they can, you can tell her not into you having fun. This dealer was into us having fun. Yeah, well, uh, I'm looking

forward to gambling with the other bahmore in October, Ben. Can't wait. See you at the tables. All right. Good. Blammo. Good. I don't know. Blammo. Okay. Maybe been over served at the time. There was a good article in the Wall Street Journal about Steve Balmer, the non-investing guru of investing. And they talk about, like, what are you actually investing? Because he says 80% of his portfolio is still in Microsoft stocks, and the rest is in index funds. And they kind of add, like, why don't you have alternatives? Why don't you have private equity? He's like, I got a little private equity. Most of the stuff that I own, he said, maybe we have some index funds in Europe and Japan, but it's mostly U.S.

and then Microsoft. And that's it. And the crazy thing is, the stock, Microsoft stock did horrible when Balmer was a CEO. Terrible. Not his fault. He took over, I didn't realize it. Bill Gates totally top-tick this thing. He got out in 2000. Balmer came in. Balmer was a CEO from January of 2000 to February 2014. The stock was underwater for his entire period as a CEO. The total return with dividends was negative 9%. And he still held on. Well, missing mobile was pretty big. Yeah. He obviously missed a few things, but it really wasn't his fault. It was Microsoft's really expensive. Then it was underwater for 15 years. But they said, this is from the Wall Street Dron. To put it another way, since he left his CEO,

Microsoft has gained 29% annually, including dividends. S&P's on 13% in that time. And so his portfolio is basically index funds, Microsoft, and the Clippers. How much money does he have in Microsoft? Well, it's 80% of his net worth. He's like the fifth richest person in the world, something crazy. Does he own 10% of the company? It's got to be...

No, I can't be that. I think he's, they said he's richer than Gates for a while. It's just crazy. Anyway, really interesting to hear that level of fortitude, but, like, people hear that and they're like, oh, okay, see, diversification. is for suckers. And the thing is, Balmer was underwater

for 15 years on this stock. Right? I'm sure he was continuing, it wasn't like he blumps under something. He probably continued to buy and get more and get more options. Well, I doubt he was a buyer,

but maybe he bought it for a long- Well, options. I guess that counts. Anyway, all right. I feel like 2024 is kind of a year of round numbers.

There's a lot of round numbers hit. 10 trillion in ETFs? Yeah, 100,000 in Bitcoin. Yeah. So it was one. trillion in ETF flows, according to the Wall Street Journal, shattering the previous record. And I think that's through November. So it's going to be higher than that.

There's now almost $11 trillion in ETF assets. I said this on Slack this morning. We were having a discussion about it. I think that the star portfolio manager is kind of dead. It's going to be in and out of small cycles. Kathy Wood was a very short cycle. There's not going to be any like 15-year runs like Bill Miller anymore. I think that's over.

I think it's thematic ETFs, and I don't think we're going to see another Peter Lynch type of person and actively managed funds. Is that fair or is that jumping the gun? Well, I think there'll be another version, a short-lived version of it like we just saw. That's what I mean. I think these, it's shorter versions of them. They're not not there will never be another Bill Miller

who goes on a 15-year run of outperforming the index. Yeah, I don't think so either. Can you imagine how that would be covered today? I mean, it was pretty big news at the time. And didn't he say he was kind of happy to be done with it when it was over? Yeah, I'm sure there's a lot of pressure. All right. So I said I'm getting some late 2020, early 21 kind of flashbacks.

This is also from the Wall Street Journal. 48 million option contracts have changed hands on a daily basis this year. Change hand daily on average this year. On pace of a record going back to 1973, it's up 9% from a year ago. Look at the options data compared to what it was pre-2020. it's more than doubled. This is permanent. I think it probably is, too.

Well, look, because look, you know what, you know the proof that I have? Look at 2022. A horrible year for stocks. That's true. Options didn't really, yeah. I guess, no, they made a new, they made a new all-time high in 2022. So, so would you say that my sort of fears of people getting a little too speculative is, is overwrought here? Well, if you, if you're looking at this chart as a sign of excess,

Well, the excess has been here for four years. Yeah. This is structural. People are not going away. Like, people are not, people are not going to delete their robin. They're just going to, they're just going to buy different stuff. Right? Because there's so many, if stocks aren't working, they'll buy inverse ETFs or put options.

I've said this before, but it's crazy to me that in the early days of the pandemic, there were people who were predicting, like, this is going to be another great depression where people, there was a whole generation of people who were in the fetal position financially for the rest of their lives, right? The whole group of misers coming out the Great Depression saw their families and everything get wiped out. And they said, nope, risk is not for me. And this pandemic was the exact opposite. It sparked.

There's more business formation. There's more speculation. There's more trading. There's more options. There's more everything. The pandemic caused a sea change of speculation unlike we've ever seen before. There was a lot of football out over the last week. I think the first night that we were there or one of the days.

It seems like every day, right? I hit three out of four of my bets. And I told Robin, I said, go to the window, cash it. And so she came back with some money. And she goes, why don't we always bet on sports? And I'm like, hello, you want to see my Fanduel account? That's true. You've been tracking the, you've been tracking and sharing with us how it's going.

Okay, another one from the Wall Street Journal. They're on a roll here. This is something you and I have been talking about. And I'll give credit to Chris, who we work with. He was probably the first person that brought this to light from, I don't know, 10 years ago, maybe, saying one of the biggest jobs you have as a financial advisor is getting your clients to spend money. And I remember the first time Chris said this, I thought, you're nuts, man.

What? And he said, no, trust me, giving your client permission to spend money and helping them get over the psychological hurdles spending money is a huge job of a financial advisor. Some of the best feedback we've gotten from clients consistently. And this is a theme that we at RedHolt's wealth management hammer a lot. and it's hard because you spend all your entire career saving and investing and worrying and anxiety about about or do you have enough and then all of a sudden the income stops and now you're told to go in reverse and the psychological challenges of that are enormous

and it sounds like a first-world problem and it is but nevertheless it is a problem so the best feedback that we get from clients are thank you for convincing me that we can afford this purchase, whether it's a house or a luxury car or whatever. Family vacation, yeah. Anything. Yeah, the money is meant to be spent with purpose and things that provide you with with joy and memories. And that is, it's a tool. And it's just, it's, it's difficult for the, for all of that, uh, for all of that to be unwound. Yeah. It's, it's a completely change in mindset that people, you're not prepared for. So they say study shows those who spend more in retirement have greater satisfaction, yet older Americans often live below their means.

They say there's a new study coming out on this that married 65-year-olds with at least $100,000 in assets withdrew an average of 2.1% of their savings annually. And the rule is typically the 4% rule, which is actually more conservative than people realize. And they say it's even worse for the rich people. People with over $700,000 to a million, they actually are even more conservative of how they spend their money. And they show how this study from this Michael Finkie guy from their, what? I don't know, that made me laugh, this Michael Thinkie guy.

So he shared a study saying, like, you could put aside 40% of your money for emergencies and, like, long-term care, and you'd still be fine. And he gave a couple good solutions, because obviously, like, the mental part of it is the biggest hurdle. But he said, like, listen, if you're really worried about longevity, earmark your home equity for any long-term care needs, right? I'm going to do a reverse mortgage. I'm going to take out a home equity, whatever it is. if I'm really, if things are really that bad health care wise, that bucket is for this. And he also said, like, dividing your accounts into different buckets. So if I have a million dollars, 300,000 of it or whatever is earmarked for travel for the next 30 years.

Right? And that's the bucket I'm spending from for travel. And everything else is covering everything else. That's good. In like mental accounting or something. You have to, like, trick yourself into spending more in some ways. When I was in vacation, I got into reading a little bit. I don't know if it's back or we'll see.

Did your kids do the thing where they go down the water slide and go back up and go down and go up? That's the greatest thing about a water slide is you can actually relax and not have to play with kids. Oh, we did the Lazy River. But this Lazy River was a bit crazy. It got a little crazy. There were some waves and some water. Oh, yeah. We had big waterfalls in ours.

You can't just relax. So actually, I brought my drink at my phone because I thought that it was a lazy river. I'm going to have my drink on one hand, my phone videoing the kids. My phone got soaked. My drink spilled in the river. Lazy rivers are elite, though, right? Very elite. I can't, I know it's not the third time.

I can't wait for Future Proof. We're going to have so much fun. That's going to be great. So one of the books that I read was a book that actually a client recommended called Strangers in Paradise. And it goes to this topic of financial, the psychology of money to steal Morgan's book. And the gist of this book, Strangers in Paradise, was that like most 80-something percent of people in the United States with money, make it on their own

and typically make it coming from a background of not having money. And so I'll put myself in this category. Now, the people that are talking about this book are like actual wealth, right? But nevertheless, I've never been to the Caribbean before growing up, I had never been on an air, to a Caribbean.

We did like car trips, right? We did D.C. and Massachusetts and whatever. So there's no example to look to. Yeah. So the book Strangers in Paradise, like it talks about this like flipping from the background of where you came from and getting comfortable with money. And then it also talks about like how, you know, preserving it and how typically the third generation goes broke. But definitely is a bit of a mind being able to take my kids on vacations that I never got to enjoy when I was a child. Like it definitely, I think about it a lot. Yes. And it gets into the weird thing of spoiling versus giving them great experiences. And yeah, it's all a big mental. hurdle. Yeah, like my kids just think vacations are normal. Yes. Yes. And how do you get them out of that mindset? Right. I all the time tell my kids like, you know, when I was growing up, I did not have this and I did not have that. And they're like, yeah, yeah. They don't care. They don't care. Yeah. Right.

They don't. I don't know what the answer is. You do the best you can. Yes. But you have to give yourself permission to spend some money and enjoy it and not just hoard it. Or they also give in the example in the article, some people just decide, like when the market's up really big, we're giving more money to our kids this year. And so if you're not going to spend it, great, give it to your kids who can use it and make their lives easier. Yeah, the psychology of hoarding money, I don't understand it. I think probably a lot of that is just deep-rooted, whatever, psychology and how you grew up and all that sort of stuff. But thank God I do not have that affliction. All right. Torson-Slock chart of the week, why didn't car sales go down when rates went up?

So he shows the Fed started hiking, and automotive sales continued to go up and up and up. And he said the source for strong demand for cars has been robust income growth, low unemployment, and households having excess savings after the pandemic. So people basically, because rates got really bad for auto loans. I don't know, talking 9, 10% in some cases, maybe even higher. And it didn't really stop people from purchasing new vehicles, which are way more expensive. Insurance is higher. The cost of the vehicles is higher.

People are buying bigger vehicles, which makes them more expensive. Do you think that a lot of this comes down to the fact that, hey, I've got a 3% mortgage locked in, that is fixed. I can spend more on my car or my vehicle now. You don't think that's part of it for some people? No. Okay. Because I do think, like, if I had to right-size my housing cost to the market right now, pay market rate for a house plus market borrowing rates, how much more I'd be spending, like, oh, maybe that can be spent elsewhere. You don't think that that's how people's minds work? No, not really. Yeah, maybe like five people. Yeah, like you. Okay.

But I do think that the slack that you're talking about is a real thing. So how about this? I feel like we've gone back and forth on this a million times, and I do too. Mike Sikardi tweeted, Goldman Sachs has a wealth effect from equity markets should provide an additional boost to consumer spending in 2025. He's just showing net worth at all-time highs and the fact that there's just more of a bump there. I just, I don't know what really stops this train outside of some sort of exogenous event that we can't see coming. Did anybody stop spending in 2022?

No. Even we thought a recession was coming. So, yeah, listen, a long bare market associated with a long real recession will change people's spending habits. Duh, that's what a recession is. Right. Yeah, it's not like really smart and intelligent to point out, like the biggest risk here is a recession.

Of course it is. Yeah, so I don't want to say that there's nothing that's going to stop this. A recession will stop it. And if and when, like, I don't know when it happens. be this year or in 10 years. But a recession will change people spending habits because they'll get laid off. The question is, what's the cause of the recession? That's the hard part. And no one's going to predict. That's my whole point is no one's going to predict the cause of the next recession. Economic expansions don't die because of old age. Right? That's not a thing. They don't

just peter out. Right. All right. Good news of the week. This is from Gregory McDonald, I think, who is a former guest on compound in France, right? This is interesting. Natural gas prices are so low they should be making headlines. Just how cheap is American gas these days? Imagine walking into a supermarket this week to buy a last minute item for Christmas and discovering that everything has been marked down to 1999 prices. Yes, that cheap. Basically saying that we've gone nowhere for the past 25 years from natural gas prices. And he's basically saying any time the prices have been high have been an outlier. And this is, when you look at this chart, it's kind of insane. In the 2000s, you have these big huge spikes in natural gas prices. And now

they've just gone nowhere for a quarter of a century. And this is the kind of thing that you just never hear about. Right? You only hear about prices that rise. You never hear about prices that don't rise. True. Right? Anyway.

All right. Here's something I would have been wrong about. I know we've talked about this. If you would have given me the mortgage rates this year and said, oh, they're going to be 7% all year. I would have said something, I don't know, eventually something has to break. And Matt, Tark had made this for me.

basically right when the Fed started cutting rates, mortgage rates shot up. So they were falling from over seven to almost six percent by September. The Fed cut now back to seven percent, which I'm guessing a lot of normy civilians outside of the finance world would look at this and go, that doesn't make sense. I don't get this. Right? We kind of know the reasons for this, but this is one of those. If you're not in it, you don't get it. Bill McBride said he's been arguing for a while that 6 to 7% would be the new normal for mortgage rates. He wrote this on Blue Sky. He said the so-called neutral rate is moving up. If we add 2% inflation, 2% real rate, a normal yield curve and 30-year rates at 175 basis points above the 10-year, that puts mortgage rates in the 6% to 7% range.

How does this not have an impact eventually? It is having an impact today. What do you mean? I mean on like the greater economy. It's bad for realtors. It's bad for people in construction. for home builders. It's bad for housing activity in all the areas that are tied to that, but it hasn't impacted the greater economy yet. When does that happen? Or is it just that we have these shock absorbers elsewhere that make up for it? Yeah, I think that's it. I just... Well, also, the numbers that we've mentioned a million times, is it two-thirds of Americans own a home? So McBride has it. So 55% of mortgages are still under 4% and 73% under 5%. So I guess that's All right, so that's it.

That's it, yeah. Solved it. I just, it seems bizarre to me that's something that if you add up all the ancillary things that are tied to the housing market, furniture and realtors and construction and all these things, it's like something like 20% of the economy. Yeah. Somebody emailed us a PDF from the National Association of Realtors, like 2025, 2025 Outlook. How about this one? Here's a housing hotspots for 2025.

Top markets amidst stabilizing rates. I see Grand Rapids, Michigan. What's Kentwood? One of the little suburbs of Grand Rapids. Grand Rapids offers a unique combination of affordability and promising long-term prospects with modern farmhouses. Oh, no, I made that part up. With 36% of millennial renters able to afford home ownership

and 12% of households on top of prime home buying age within the next five years, the demand for housing will remain strong. It does seem, so this area has seen a lot of... Oh, wait. The availability of starter homes. allows newcomers to purchase a home and established routes making Grand Rapids a standout market for 2025. If you purchase in the city limits, it's actually relatively affordable to find a house. And there are lots of young people coming to the area. There's a huge health care,

like all sorts of doctors and people coming. Can I be honest? I'm not positive. I know what city limits mean. Well, there's the city and then outer sort of, I don't call them suburbs, but outside of the city limits. All right, so you don't know either. The city limits are literally drawn on a map. So I guess the outer burbs are where, like, it's just different school districts and different, you know. You know what else? I don't know what it means.

I've been afraid to admit this for a while, but I'll come clean. Anytime you see, like, Neo in a word. Okay. Or, like, post. Like, we're living in a post. I mean, I know what Post means, but, like, I think Neo means new, but I still just don't really understand. Okay.

Like Neo Keynesian is, I don't know if I just made that term up. Whenever you see, like, Neo Post with, like, economics stuff, I just, I don't get it. You had it, it's new, like new or like modified, I guess, or like a new version. It's like it's like the Winnie the Pumium, right? Okay. Yes, I agree it. It sounds like you're trying very hard.

All right. This is a good email. Stop sounding all educated. We've talked about FU money recently. This was a good one. And I feel like this is a lot of what fire boils down to. I feel like you missed one of the core of what FU money can mean, probably because you have pleasant jobs you seem to enjoy.

Fair. True. FU money means your boss can demand you. do something unethical or degrading, and you can just tell them no, thank you. In automotive, I've seen guys out of fear of their jobs, fudge emission results to the government or engineers work the production line during strikes. We should get Dateline on this, I think. FU money turns you into the kind of worker who can stand on principle and do what is right.

And again, I think this is a lot of what the fire thing is about. I know there's a lot of people, especially in the internet, love to dunk on the fire people for actually being unhappy. But I think a lot of it is they're unhappy in their jobs, and that's why they do the fire thing. And of course, you don't find fulfillment by getting a million dollars and living off of it forever. But if you're in a soul-sucking job,

I totally understand the idea of I'm going to do everything I can to get out of this soul-sucking job. And for some people, it's not going to a different job. It's getting out of the rat race completely. Yes. So I totally get it. That makes a lot of sense to me. Good email.

All right, somebody sent us an article. The New York Times is getting in on it. What's the secret to choosing a good airplane movie? Did we start this trend? We've been talking about it for a while. So in the article, there was a link to another article talking about, like, how you're more prone to cry in an airplane. So here's what a psychiatrist said. I've never cried in an airplane.

I'm sure you have. Oh, yeah? Just wait. Being in an airplane means you're traveling, and that often has some kind of sentimental value. So if you think about it, you are really primed to be more emotional. Traveling can increase oxytocin levels, especially when traveling with loved ones. It's the same reason couples have more sex on vacation. Okay.

Um, so anyway, I, uh, I watched on the way down to the Bahamas. I watched the Christopher Reeve documentary. Guessing you haven't seen it. No, is that HBO maybe? Yeah. Holy shit. Thank God I had my hood on. Because I wasn't, I didn't have like a tear.

I was literally crying. Like crying and almost, almost sniffling. It was so fucking heavy and sad. And Christopher Reeve for the young. people was one of the most famous people on the planet. He played Superman and, uh, he had a devastating accident. He fell off a horse. He was a huge deal when he got hurt. And broke his neck and was paralyzed. And was a huge advocate for the, the whole community. So what was I, where was I going with this? Um, yeah, just, thank God, Robin didn't look over because she would

have been like, what in the world? So yeah, tears coming down my face. And this is not exactly a ringing endorsement. But if you lost a loved one, like I did, my mom died in 2011. And thank God, the pain gets a little bit easier with every passing year because if it didn't, your body would die. You would just die of sadness. So the tears don't flow the way that they once did. So if you are looking for a reason to cry, because I like crying, I love it. It gives me the feelings.

It does feel like your body just needs it sometimes, right? Sometimes you just need to cry. So if you just need to cry and you can't get the tear ducts working like they used to, watch this documentary. It was really incredible. Yeah, so grief is the kind of thing where, like, something will just trigger it again and it'll all just come flooding back, right? So it was so sad.

Like, not only what happened to him, but then his wife, who was, by all accounts, an absolute saint, she died like 14 months after he did from lung cancer. She never smoked. And the poor family, just an, unimaginable tragedy. All right. Enough of the sadness. One more thing that I experienced on the airplane this week on the way home.

What else did I watch? I think that's it. You know what I'm always doing, though, like finding the right movie it's talking about? I'm just like this scrolling for a. I scroll everything and then I go back to the start. Same. So I did the new releases and then I did the A to Z. So I did all of that.

And there wasn't anything that I was super into. So I said, you know what? Let me hit the TVs. Let me hit the TV show. And I started watching Linus. And I saw four episodes of the first season. I won't, I'll finish this thought later. And then I binge the rest of it yesterday and this morning in bed.

Hell of a show. Lots of fun. I started that one too. Okay. Super bingeable. So maybe, anyway, maybe that's another tactic. Like, shows are so bingey these days that maybe movies are out and TV shows are in on the airplane? No, I actually never, I only do movies on airplanes.

I never do TV shows. Because you didn't even know. Yeah. Now you know. All right. Another Cortez-Slock one. The average daily rate for a hotel in New York is $417. Shot up a lot this year, actually.

It must be one of the most volatile prices that there is. And I know it's seasonal or it depends on when you come. Because when I come, there will be times where I come and stay at the same hotel. And the range is, I don't know, $300 for literally the same hotel, depending on the day or the month or whatever, whenever I'm coming. Like, I'm coming there in a week, and it was ridiculously cheap for New York. And it's just because I guess no one is traveling. then. So I did a little traveling too. We did a weekend with some friends in Chicago.

Stayed at the hotel where they did the Home Alone pool, which is kind of cool to see, kids like that, home-own two. Really cool. Yeah, because they filmed the pool there because they didn't have it in New York. My son became obsessed with big buildings being in Chicago. And so we took them to the top of the Hancock building and did the lean-over thing, you know, where you lean over and it puts you down and you look out. I did that with Josh when we were there. Very cool. Years ago. Yeah, very cool. So here's my tourist request for next time coming to New York.

How come you'd ever take me to the top of the Emperor? state building before. I've never done it. You've never done it. Okay, so next time I come, if we have time, we have to do it together. Wait, should we do it next week? Sign me up. Actually, it's probably a good time to do it because nobody's going to be here. Yeah, let's do it. All right, one of those days. All right, let's get tickets. Speaking of Home Alone, you ever appreciate the Home Alone soundtrack is one of the greatest soundtracks of all time? We were listening to it in the car. All right, so it's John

Williams, a composer of Superman. Really good background news. Look at the kids were like, we did some light shows and the kids were like napping on the way home and we like put that on as like a nice soft. All right. So, so here's a plug. Did I talk about that I went to see Elf at the Philharmonic? Okay. So I went to see Elf with the kids and the family and it was so much fun. It was so much fun. And of course I've seen Elf a million times, but seeing it with people laughing like it's the first time you've seen it with a live orchestra. So they do that. They do it with Home Alone. And I think they also said back to the future in Star Wars, but I was thinking about the music. That is really cool. So if you ever take your family in New York City, or if anyone listening,

uh, highly recommend that for a family activity. Did you see Will Ferrell dressed as elf at the L.A. Kings game? Just a national treasure. Uh, so I actually, my wife and I don't have a lot of financial talks anymore. We used to have more probably, but like once a year, she's kind of like, hey, what's the, so what's the story with next year for spending? Like, what are we doing with their money? And every once in a while, she'll kind of hit me one of these. And she said, the only thing I care about. I'm like, all right, let's hear it. She said, I just, I make a big travel budget. She says, I love taking trips, little, big, whatever. Like, I want to keep traveling and having experience with the kids. Like, forsake all else, and that's the thing is traveling. Because for years,

when we had twins at first, like, we did not want to travel because it was too much stuff. It was two car seats or two strollers or whatever, the double stroller. It's just a pain. So for years, we didn't really do anything. And now that we can and the kids are enjoying it more. So that's our annual spending talk. It's just more travel. There's no better money spent in my view than vacations with the family. Because also, it's, it's so fleeting. I heard, I heard somebody talk about this, like 80% of the time you spend with your kids before the 18th birthday. It's brutal, right? Yeah. My oldest daughter's 10 and it's going to go on. Yeah. Bunch people sent us this. Flying was already the worst. Then America stopped using headphones. So it says, if security

Three lines, flight delays, and long layovers weren't enough. There's a new scourge facing holiday travelers. It's a surprising number of people who think it's okay to have phone conversations on speaker or watch movies and shows without headphones. Is this made up? Is this really a theme? Oh my gosh.

You don't see. So I'll at least once or twice. I'll get on a plane. And most of the time it'll be a parent shoving a YouTube iPad in front of a kid with no headphones and you hear their video games or their YouTube videos out loud. No.

You've never experienced it. I always give a nasty like, are you serious? I gave one of those, like, head turns, like, what? You've never experienced this? Oh, yeah. Or people doing, like, a FaceTime or a speaker? Like, it happens a lot. That is so rude.

I think the solution should be you get a ticket and you either have to pay the ticket and keep talking on speakerphone or you show proof that you bought a pair of AirPods or the equivalent. Because you can buy a knockoff brand of headphones for $20. Okay. I honestly, I feel like I would be pretty sensitive to this stuff as a considerate person.

This would bother the hell out of me. It's true. I have a service question for you. You were in the service industry. You worked as a waiter. Damn right. I was. Yeah.

Not just a waiter. I'll remind the audience. Bus boy. Cabana boy for years. Caddy for one day. I didn't do well there. Long time waiter. Yeah.

Service industry. All right. So we were another family who has three kids and we have three kids. That's 10 people. So big table. And I think it's one of those deals where a party of eight or two. 10 or more, gratuities included. But the waitress didn't tell us this.

So I got the bill. And I go to write the, and I don't ever even look at the bill. I just signed it. And I looked at it and it said, add additional gratuity. And I said, wait a minute. Does this mean it's already added? Because it didn't itemize it. It just said it.

You know, we just split the bill in half. And I had to ask them. They said, oh, yeah, it's already included there. Not nice. But she didn't tell us. She should tell us, right? No, no. You detract the tip in that case.

No, I'm kidding. But that happened to me one time at dinner. We had a dinner that was way more expensive than it should have been. And then the next morning, my friend texted me the receipt. He said, hey, this jerk didn't tell us. And it was already an expensive meal that they put 20% on top. That is so effing rude. Yes, you have to tell.

I can't imagine not telling the family that, hey, tip is included. Yes. Okay. That is so dirty. All right. A bunch of people email us to say, you guys are wrong about merging in traffic and construction, saying the zipper method actually works where you should keep going all over the front of line and then merge.

Yeah, if everyone did that, it would work. But that's not what we were talking about. We were talking about people who've already merged, and then the jerk who goes to the front. And actually, there's a book on this. It's one of the better books I've read. It's called Traffic, Why We Drive the Way We Do, by Tom Vanderbilt. It's like 2009.

It's really worth a read. And he talks about this in the book. And he says, the problem is not necessarily the people who go to the front of line. It's the construction signs. So you shouldn't have a construction sign three miles back saying left lane closed the head. You should have the sign like, maybe more like a mile in advance, maybe a half mile. So people don't start getting over to.

So that's the problem is the signs that tell people, and then people start breaking and getting over too fast. So that's the problem. That's what he's talking with the zipper thing. Yeah. You get in closer. Okay. All right.

So somebody senses this. Random knowledge here. Harriet Winslow from Family Matters. Early on in that show, she was fired from her job at the Chicago Chronicle where she was an elevator attendant. I did not realize that. That was Friday night back in the day. Family Matters.

How good was T. So my daughter. Step by step. So my daughter got, I remember that one too. Dinosaurs, that was kind of crappy. So my daughter got into Fuller House on Netflix over Christmas break. And she binged. Fuller House was not bad.

She binged all five seasons of Fuller House, which is the new one on Netflix. They mean five? Five, I didn't realize that either. And she watched the end and she was like, you know one of those things where you binge a show and you're kind of sad when it's over? She was like, I'm kind of sad. It's done. But then she moved on to the regular full house.

It's on Hulu. Where do you see that on Hulu? Yeah. And totally into it. So, um... By the premise of that show, if you think about it, Uncle Jesse, Joey, and Danny with the girls was really wild. Yes.

It was a little out there. Uh, okay. Um, why people look older in the past? What has this been? Someone sent us this thing from Roger Ebert talking to Spielberg about doing, um, war movies. Saving Private Ryan. And he said, today boys 17 or 18 look like children, but back then 16, 17, 18 year olds. face actually looks sometimes like a 29 to 35 year old.

He said, if you look at all those guys coming down the game planks in the documentary footage, they all look like much older than they actually were. And he's saying, like, they asked him why. He said, I don't know, part of it is just stressed back then. Like, living through war times, like hardens you as an individual. So he said he had to really look for people who looked older to play those roles in saving Private Ryan. That makes so much sense.

You know, McCauley Colkin was 37 in Home Alone. No, but just think about how much harder life was. Yes. That's part of it. His life is easier these days, and it doesn't, and people said sunscreen and smoking and, yeah. I mean, how young do we look? Very youthful.

Mm-hmm. You know, Christopher Reeve, speaking of this, was 24 when he played Superman. Wow, I did not realize that. You got to be kidding me. He was 24 years old. He did look a lot older, didn't he? Geez.

All right, story time. We ended up in the ER on Christmas night this year. My son accidentally got his lips split open. had to get some stitches. It was the end of a Christmas party. My wife and I show up to the ER in our matching Christmas vacation sweatshirts, ugly sweatshirts when I wore on the show last week

and she got the matching one. George has been through some stuff. He's been to the ER like seven times. So he got some stitches and it was a bummer for him and he kept saying this is the worst Christmas ever, but it was actually a very proud parent moment for me. He gets his stitches. They come in and they didn't do the shot for the numbing.

they just put some, the cream on it. And they said, you know, and he split his lip open really bad. And they said, you know, we could give you a shot or we could just try it with the numbing. It might hurt a little more. And he said, I don't want this shot, just do the numbing. And the nurse came in, and I said,

do you want me to hold your hand while you get stitches because it might hurt a little bit? And he said, no, no, kind of like, get out of here. And he got stitches. He didn't flinch once when she did the stitches. He didn't cry. He didn't squirm. He just let her do the stitches.

and it was kind of like shrugged his shoulders and it was over and it was like honestly my wife was like, you know, so upset that he was bleeding and I was like, that was a very proud moment for me that he was so tough because I told him I got stitches in my lip when I was in fourth grade and I bawled like a baby when they gave me the shot and like I was crying and he didn't like even move

and I was like dude I can't believe how much tougher you are than I was back then. I was crying like a baby and you did it like nothing. So that's actually a very proud moment for me as a parent. He was so tough but yeah the funny thing is is that you know they use a little hook thing to give you like i was watching really and he kept being like where where's the hook where'd she put the hook i think if i were you i would have been crying my wife was so she had enough tears but i was i was uh yeah i was i was a proud parent that's yeah not not a fun moment we were in the er till midnight

i think on christmas night but uh yeah he's all good one more one more thing that i noticed at Bahamara. Thong bathing suits? Women or men? I did see one man in a bikini hammock and banana hammock. I'm sorry. I've said it before, I'll say it again. I really want to wear one of those just for the lulls.

Robin will not have it. So, yeah, thong bathing suits used to be like a very non-American thing. I don't know if it's like European or wherever where it was, you see it more frequently. It crossed over. Kim crossed over the pond. It's now a thing, apparently. I did see him Punicana, too. It is bizarre.

Now, I don't have daughters, but it is odd seeing a girl in a thong with her dad. And even, like, Robin said this to me multiple times. She's like, another one. I have two daughters. Please don't have, I don't want to have this conversation. Well, you're from the Midwest. I think you're okay.

That's true. They're going to be wearing, like, snow pants. Here's one other thing I noticed when I was on my trip a few weeks ago. Tell me if you thought, like, you see a lot more people with tattoos now. on vacations, right? Like tattoo, like, women will have tattoos on their thighs or like lots or guys with tattoo sleeves. Do you think people with tattoos find each other to co-mingle? Because I saw a lot of couples who both had lots of tattoos. You usually don't see a couple where either the guy or the girl or both got some, just one person has all the tattoos

and the other person doesn't have any. It seemed like they were, the couples you saw, they both had a lot of tattoos. You think that's a trait you look for in a mate if you were a tattoo person? Oh, yeah. It's got to be, right? Yeah, definitely. Yeah. All right, Ben. Recommendations, what do you got to end the year? Okay, I don't have any new stuff because all of you been watching is holiday movies. So I just want to give my appreciation for, I just love the Christmas movie discourse that we have every year now.

I do. I do, too. Because the classics are, they're not changing. So we have to look for different things every year. Like, you can't be having the same conversation of, is diehard of Christmas movie, or what did Kevin McAllish's dad do? You can't have those same conversations anymore because they've already been had. He was an investment banker, no? Probably.

Where do you stand on it, it's a wonderful life? It's my mother's favorite movie of all time, or Christmas movie of all time. I've only seen it once. I should probably revisit. Next year. Okay. I don't watch a lot of the oldies. To me, it's like 80s and forward.

Sorry. How about a New Year's resolution for you? Watch Casablanca. I tried, remember? I made it halfway through. No, no, no. You watched Citizen Kane. I did Casablanca, too.

You couldn't make it through Casablanca? it's too old Like even a Christmas story I feel because it's like I don't know It's made in the 80s It's color right yeah It was made it

It's supposed to be in the 60s So even that's a little too old for me But so here's my Here's my attempt to add to the discourse Of Diehard since I watched it So remember there's that part Where Hans Gruber's like tell In the 80s

Every villain would have to tell What their plan is And then the good guy would thwart that plan Right They'd tell them what the plan is Before the plan going awry So he talked about how we wanted To steal these bare bonds

And he said before they realized what's happened to them. He was pretending that he was helping out political terrorism, but he just wanted money. So he wanted to get these 20% bear bonds to live on the beach. And I think Die Hard is actually a movie about reaching for yield and the dangers of reaching for yield. Because Hans wanted to live that fire lifestyle

with the 20% yields on the beach. And so he resorted to a life of crime. That's my addition to the discourse. All right. Finally, a couple more things. Middle-aged dads and Christmas movies that I can relate to, okay? So in family man, Nicholas Cage walking the dog in the middle of the night, waiting for the dog to take a poop.

now that I have a dog. I never saw that movie. Oh, my, okay, you will cry if you watch that movie. The family man? Oh, it's, oh, I love that one. But he walks the dog in the middle of the night and can't, the dog won't poop? And he's like, why won't you just, and that's me now that I have a dog. I'm the guy who walks.

You know, I thought like, oh, maybe the kids will walk the dog occasionally. Nope, but I actually love it. Wait, let me just do this. Do you relate? Because I think, is this Christmas time, meet the parents? Is that Christmas time? No, it should be, but it's not. Wait, do you, well, just do you relate more to Jack Burns or to, to,

What's Ben Stiller's character in that name? Greg. Oh, yeah, geez. I'm still like, yeah. Still Focker, but eventually it's going to be Jack Burns. Uh-uh. You're, you're approaching Jack Burns' territory. Probably.

Here's another one. Clark Griswold and the Christmas vacation dealing with the in-laws. Like, he's dealing with his parents coming in, and like this happened with us this year. My parents just decided to spring it on us. Hey, we're coming a day early. Oh, okay. We're not ready for you, but sure, yeah. We have enough towels.

We have enough blankets. Everyone, come on. So I dealt with that too. And finally another one, Family Stone, which I watched occasionally. sometimes you're parenting your parents and sometimes they're still parenting you when you get to the middle age, right? Because here's something they don't tell you about middle age. You have to take care of at a certain age.

You're taking care of your kids and your parents to make sure everyone's happy. Is that the sandwich generation? I think so, right? So, like, now the grandparents expect you to, like, take care of their meals and stuff. Maybe that's payback for them being parents for you forever, but no one prepared me for this. I love the handoff. So now I'm the host. Yeah, you're the person in charge.

Yeah, I'm not. Much prefer it, to be honest. Okay. And when I say the person, I mean, my wife does everything, but we do it at our house. I don't know when this happened, but it's just like, oh, wait, we're the one in charge now. I didn't sign up for this, but I guess I did. Yeah, no, you did. Okay.

That's all I got. All right. All right, I did make a, oh, the other book that I had on vacation was the McConaughey book, Greenlight. Holy fucking shit. Great book, right? The story about him fighting the warrior guy in Africa? I'm operating an assumption that 20% of the stories were false, but even if 80% are true.

It's a great book. What a life. So I almost want to read it or listen to it. The audiobook, I'm not going to, but I almost am going to. So McConaughey, basically, he made a time to kill, got famous, and then just fucking bought an RV and just lived in a van for a couple of years, driving around the country and then going to the Amazon and Africa. and if he was alive during the Instagram era,

I mean, just the coolest dude ever. Yes. I definitely appreciated him way more after reading that book. What an incredible, incredible person. Unbelievable. Okay. So I made a top 10 list from my movies in 2024. I saw a lot of movies this year.

And so there was a lot of movies that didn't make the list. I thought it was a good year for movies. At least it was for me. So in, I guess in order, ish. Dune Part 2. Did you see Doom Part 2? I did. I did.

All right, just say check or no, check if you've seen these movies. Dune Part 2. Anora? No, on my list. Strange Darling? What's that one? Is that the one over there? You think they're in the 60s, but they're not?

What is that? How are you going to Google this? Movie where they think they're in the 60s, but they're not? Okay, that's definitely not the one I'm thinking of. Keep going. I'll find the movie I'm talking about. Okay. The substance?

Definitely not for you. No. Challenger's? Yes. I like that one. Civil War? No. It's not a good catch movie.

Probably skip it, but it was great in the theater. Love Lies Bleeding. You did see that movie. I made you see that movie. Yes, that was decent. Smile, too. Definitely not. Mads, which was a Parisian horror film, I believe.

Definitely not for you. And lastly, Hitman on Netflix. Okay, I love that. So there's... Oh, and there's so many good movies this year. Well, not somebody. I like Twisters. Speaking of Glenn.

All right, what's one of you're thinking of? The one of you're thinking of. And Harry Stiles? Oh, I did not like that. Okay. Oh, blink twice for that. I liked that. Blinked twice.

No, that movie is Don't Worry, Darling. That's it. See, it had Darling in the name. Yeah. I liked the first 70%, but the ending just really fell flat from me. But I had fun. I had fun.

So, Ben, it turns out that I am a Taylor Sheridan stand. Full frontal. I don't know, full bore. Yeah. I told you I was giving up in it, but I started Landman and I really like it, and I'm Luschal INS, too, so. How far into Landman are you?

I think we're only two. episodes in, but I'm in. Okay. Well, it's not what you think. Like, it gets, it gets good. All right. So I didn't, I'm Googling this Taylor Sheridan, as if he hasn't been around for a long time. But I didn't, I wasn't familiar with his work. Wait, where are you on Sicario? In Sicario, too. I love, Sicario. It's a Denisville Nouve, one of my favorites. Did you watch number two? Did I watch the second one? I did. Okay. I did. I loved the second one, too. I thought it was really good. All right. So he wrote Secario. He wrote He He wrote Heller Highwater. I love Heller Highwater.

That's a good movie. Yep. He wrote Wind River. He wrote the second Sicario. I mean, to say nothing of his television, which we're going to say a lot about. Yellowstone, 1883, which I didn't see. Mayor of Kingston, which people like, I didn't see. That one's a... Okay, Tulsa King, no interest.

1923, I'm in it and I'm liking it. Lioness, which again, I binge the first season, awesome. And Landman. I mean, this guy... What a run. It's insane, right? And he does a lot of it. I don't know how he does it.

What a run. And then he puts himself any of these shows, too. He acts in the shows. He always gives himself one of the best parts, which is kind of funny. Of course. He acted in a sons of anarchy. Oh, I didn't know that. Okay. It is, yeah, it's hard to believe.

How you can do all these shows at once. Some people do, like, one show their whole life, and that's it. He's very prolific. Yes. All right. You know, they tell you, like, when you become successful, you have to learn how to say no. Not him. No, please, don't say no.

Keep going. Same with Kevin Hart. Keep going. It never says no to any commercial. We have to say thank you to all of our listeners. We talked to this morning. We had a YouTube show come out on Christmas. YouTube and podcast came out on Christmas.

And we had so many people listen and watch. It was amazing. Great feedback for people. We have the best audience. We have the best audience. So, all right, in conclusion, 24 was a good year for the stock market. I hope everybody made a lot of money. Let's not plan on making, let's not count on making as much money in 2025, but if we do, great.

If we have another 20% year this year, the dot-com bubble, like, we're getting there. I'm telling you, if you have another 25% year, I'm going to turn straight outright bearish. Okay. We're here in December, we're 25%. The funny thing is, that would put us at 1997. Oh, oh, oh, then there would be two more years. I take it back. Okay.

Really and truly. hit the inbox we love to see you there animal spirits of the compound news.com thank you to our incredible team duncan john daniel shan the col chart kid rob graham hell of a year best to everyone in the new year thank you very much for riding with us and we will see you next time Thank you.