Animal Spirits Podcast - Talk Your Book: Creating Monthly Income From Your Portfolio

Starting point is 00:00:00 Today's Animal Spirits Talk Your Book is brought to you by Invesco. Go to Invesco.com to learn more about Invesco's Income Advantage ETF suite. That's Invesco.com to learn more. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ridholt's wealth management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be. relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ridholt's wealth management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Michael, we talk often about strategies that have a psychological component to them, that there's the math piece, and this is the quants, have the blinders on, and they look at just the math, right? Does this make sense from a math piece, the sharp ratio, the risk adjuster returns, the whatever return per unit of risk.

Starting point is 00:01:04 And then there's a psychological component where there are just psychological hurdles people have a hard time getting over. And it's interesting that in a bull market where growth stocks are exploding and AI speculation is happening, that we're also seeing an explosion in option income strategies. That almost doesn't seem to make sense in this, like, why would you want to own income strategies when the stock market is going bananas. A counterpoint, it does make sense. Or maybe this is what you were getting at.

Starting point is 00:01:34 Psychologically, you might say, hey, the market's up 15% in the year for the last eight years. I want some exposure, but on all the exposure, you know, and this is a way to do that. I don't want all the smoke. I don't want all the upside. I want all the downside. Right.

Starting point is 00:01:51 It's a way to get yourself some regular income because these type of strategies pay out monthly, but also just take some stuff off the edges, right? We're not going to go down as much. We may not go up as much either, but it's equity exposure. And I think people like seeing those eight, nine, ten percent yields. And there's obviously the yield products that have 50, 60, 100 percent on individual stocks, and we're going to talk about those today. So we talked to John Borrello. John is a senior portfolio manager and VESCO about their whole suite of these option income strategy is called Invesco's Income Advantage ETF suite. So they have one on the cues, on Equalweight, on the EFA. Interestingly enough, that the equal weight is the biggest one,

Starting point is 00:02:35 which surprised me a lot. So here is our talk with John. John, welcome to the show. Thanks, Michael. I'm a big fan of the podcast, so it's an honor to be here. Oh, well, thank you for that. All right, why do you think it is that on maybe the last year, year and a half, income has been one of the hottest investments, which is like sort of counterintuitive. It's pretty boring. Is it, I don't think it's a demographic thing. It's not like all of a sudden everybody turned, you know, 65. Is it, is it interest rates?

Starting point is 00:03:08 Was there a rule change? Like, what is it about the, what caused the explosion in these income oriented ETFs? Yeah, I mean, I think if you take a step back and think about option income in particular, it's a diversifying source of yield that's not interest rate sensitive at all or at least when there are shorter dated options, there's no real rate sensitivity there. So, you know, the outcomes that option income strategies

Starting point is 00:03:35 are built for, you know, what they're trying to deliver are pretty broad demand themes that, you know, I think are going to be around for, you know, in a perpetuity. Basically, how do you stay invested in the equity markets but do so with the addition? of monthly income that's attractive, and again, not rate sensitive, and reduce volatility to the broad markets. And with, you know, the bull market we've been in and, you know, a lot of

Starting point is 00:04:01 concerns around valuation and other things with the markets, having that risk reduction plus the yield that's, again, no duration has been, I think, a value proposition that more and more investors are turning to. So do you think that there are investors who were maybe dividend investors in the past who've made the switch to? to options income. Because obviously there always has been a cohort of people who just the dividend just makes them feel good and safe and comfortable, whatever it is. Do you think that's a shift that's happened in recent years? For sure. And actually, that's how income advantage was born within my team. So we actually were managing a multi-asset portfolio that was looking for equity

Starting point is 00:04:42 income with dividend stocks. And we started to get concerned that the amount of risk that we were being forced to take to generate attractive yields was not as attractive anymore. And, you know, you think about concentration in certain sectors like utilities or mortgage rates or traditionally more higher yielding parts of the market. We found ourselves with very high concentration in sectors, but also a value bet. And some of those names also got really volatile. And so we started looking at, is there a way for us to go up in quality, maintain diversification that you would get with a broad index exposure and then add that monthly yield law reducing risk all at the same time. And that led us to the option income strategy that we deploy

Starting point is 00:05:31 now within ETFs and under the income advantage name. But from first hand experience, we did this to drive those outcomes within multi-asset portfolios, much like how we see advisors plugging it into broader portfolio context. And then when we're out on the road and we're talking to clients about the strategies, we're hearing the same concerns around dividend names. You know, sometimes it's too crowded. The value bet, again, is people are getting tired sometimes by having that type of drag when they're looking for yield.

Starting point is 00:06:05 And in this case, you know, we're able to deliver, you know, oftentimes multiples of what you can get with dividend names with option-based income and do that. that without sacrificing diversification. So you all have three different ETFs available right now. You've got you've got a suite that includes the Q's, the equal weight, and EFA. Within each of those three buckets is the strategy of the way that you deploy the income or generate the income, I should say? Is that consistent? Yeah, it's exactly the same portfolio construction and design and discipline process across all three. So QQA on the NASDAQA, RSPA for S&P 500 equal weight, and EFAA for MSCI-EFA. No, obviously very different underlying indices, different option market dynamics,

Starting point is 00:06:59 but the process that we follow is the same across the suite. Are you doing options on the individual securities or are these index-based options? They're all index-based. So, yeah, we don't do individual security, we want to have kind of the broad market exposure on the option side. How does option income work in terms of what we're going to need to deliver to the government with that deficit problem and all? Is it ordinary income? Yeah. So the way we've constructed the option income overlay, it is ordinary income. So we're one of the few that deliver the option income as 1099 income. And some of the reasons that we've chosen that route, you know, and we've looked across all different instrument types

Starting point is 00:07:42 for the best outcomes for, you know, U.S.-based investors, is that we're not going to be returning principle, so we don't have a return of capital associated with it. But we also don't have tax straddle implications with our particular design, which can complicate the tax picture. So in a broader theme of the way we've designed these strategies, we're trying to build them with no surprises. We want to deliver value at outcomes with no surprises. When you can deliver consistent income, you know, bona fide income, that makes it a much more transparent and predictable outcome for investors on an after-tax basis. What does the volatility of the income look like? Because obviously, I know that the option income is not interest rate sensitive,

Starting point is 00:08:28 but rates can affect the, you know, the payout for the option. So like, how stable is it from month to month. Yeah, that's another key tenet of our design is consistency of the income. So we've built it such that the yield does not fluctuate very much. And very much by design, the thought process there is, you know, for clients to use income in their portfolios, they don't really want the level of yields to be tethered to something like the VIX or market volatility, which is also really volatile itself. So what we've tried to do in our design is rather than have the strike price of the option be kind of a fixed variable that you're always trying to keep consistent, we want the outcomes of the portfolio to be consistent. Mainly that's

Starting point is 00:09:15 the beta and the yield. And in order to do that, we allow the strike prices to float. So we're keeping the weight to the overlay always the same. It's on half of the portfolios. And as market volatility changes, we're pushing those strike prices further out when markets get volatile. They're going to be closer when markets calm down. But that process of systematically adjusting the strike prices to keep the yields consistent is basically how we drive that level of yields that you see on a monthly basis being, you know, similar across time. We're all about driving towards good behavior. And I think one of the things that some of the quantitative-minded investors might miss with dividends or anything that might be like suboptimal in a spreadsheet is the behavioral

Starting point is 00:10:10 component with dividends specifically. If you are, if you were sitting in Coca-Cola during the GFC, for example, all right, not to say that there's not a lot of pain involved, but if you're relying on the dividend, like there's a mental crutch there that you know Coca-Cola is money good. And I think there's something similar going on with these strategies where ordinary people don't necessarily care about optimizing their sharp ratio or whatever the case may be. It feels good. It keeps them in the game. They want exposure to the market, but they might not want all the smoke, particularly in the case of the cues. But can you also talk about on investor behavior and investor education some of the other strategies that

Starting point is 00:10:53 offer like 100% yields, just for people that might. just only be looking at the yield, I think that would be helpful. Yeah, Michael, I mean, this is like my biggest pet peeve when we look across the space or some of these crazy egregious yields that you see coming out in your right. Like some of them, I think, do have 100% yields. And unfortunately, I think some of these asset managers are, you know, are likely trying to prey on, you know, end clients and end investors who don't really, you know, look under the put and realize that yield is not the same as return. I think there are buyers of some of these

Starting point is 00:11:29 products that look at that type of yield and literally think they're going to grow their capital by 100% by investing in them. But at the end of the day, there's a really simple kind of mental model to keep in mind when you're looking at yields. And this doesn't apply just for option income. It's anything that's paying out of yield. If the total return is going to be below that yield, you're going to get your principal return back to you and you're going to get charged fees in the process. So, you know, if a fund is delivering or saying that they have 100% annualized yield,

Starting point is 00:12:03 well, after one year, that means they're going to return all of your money back to you. And the underlying portfolio is going to have to double in order to kind of keep the dream alive and not have run out of money. So you actually see some reverse splits already happening in this space for, you know, with the ETFs that have paid out too much income.

Starting point is 00:12:24 That's bullish, right? Yeah. If you look at the price charts of these things, they do, they just go down, right? Because, yeah, you're right. It's return of capital, essentially. Well, yeah, I'll give you $100 and you'll give me back $10 a month. Right. And yeah, I think, unfortunately, you know, people, there is the behavioral aspect of they like the feeling of seeing a distribution hit their account on a monthly basis. But that, there is no free lunch. There's no way to support those yields if you're not actually earning. We often say, like, just don't spend more than you earn. Well, that applies

Starting point is 00:12:56 the ETFs, too. If they're spending more than they're earning through time, they're going to run out of money. And so in our approach, you know, yes, there are a lot of option income ETFs that have that issue. There are also a much smaller segment that we think are responsible. And they are very thoughtful, you know, managed by option-based professionals like ourselves. I've been in the option markets for over 20 years managing equity and option portfolios. And I think, you know, it's really important to know, is there a team being thoughtful about solving real problems in portfolios behind it, or is it a product that got launched because the covered call space got hot and they want something that, you know, has headline yields that will entice people into the

Starting point is 00:13:42 strategies? In our case, you know, we're aiming for about 10% yield on QQA. We're, we're aiming for about 10% yield on QQA, we're aiming for about 9% on RSPA and about 8% on EFAA. Yes, those are attractive yields, but they're not so egregious that we can't possibly expect to compound it rates that exceed those levels over the long run. So we did a lot of work on, you know, how do you balance income and growth? We want our NAV to be growing at the same time that we're also delivering those attractive yields. And that balance is why I mentioned we only have the overly on half of the portfolio. Well, the other half is always there is a growth engine to participate in equity market upside.

Starting point is 00:14:30 And even the part that we do use the options on, those are out of the money options that we're going to have some upside participation there too. So without that balance, you can do way too heavy into income, sacrifice their participation and end up with an NAV that's perpetually declining. So that's the opposite of what you want. Michael, what was the product or the fund strategy that used to call like scaredy cat high yield? What was that one? No, we called the chicken equity. Chicken equity. So you said, yeah, junk bonds were chicken equity. Not in a derogatory way, but for people who are nervous about like owning the cues, right? Yeah. I want to be in this, but boy, I'm nervous because evaluations are high and the returns have been so good. So they decide,

Starting point is 00:15:12 okay, we're going to do QQA, which is your income advantage fund on the Q's. What kind of expectations can you put on people in terms of like upside and downside capture? The understanding that I know it's not set in stone, but like what kind of ranges could you expect the downside and upside capture to be on a fund like this? Yeah, Ben, I mean, I think that's one of the key use cases here is for people who want to maintain exposure to all the great innovation that's happening, AI, quantum computing, et cetera, with exposure to the NASDAQ 100. But also want to downshift their risk. And that might be that they're trying to dip their toes in to that exposure or they've

Starting point is 00:15:49 already been invested and they're trying to take the risk down. And, you know, our design, I think I mentioned consistency of both yield and beta over the long run, we expect the beta to be around 70.75. So you can expect, you know, roughly three quarters participation up and down through time. And actually, we hope to exceed that a bit and drive some. asymmetry, more upside than downside capture, around that kind of 0.75 expectation. And there are various environments where that works better than others. You know, since inception, all three of our ETFs have captured more than 80% of the upside

Starting point is 00:16:30 in pretty strong markets as a whole while also reducing that risk between 20 and 30%. So let's take that a face value and say that you would deliver three quarters of the way up, three quarters of the way down, well, somebody could say, all right, well, then just buy three quarters of your position. If you wanted to invest a hundred bucks in the queue, just buy 75. But the reason why there is so much money going into these products, I think really does speak to the fact that people don't live in a spreadsheet. They live in the real world, the feelings and emotions. And for reasons that are obvious to me, they're choosing to go into these products. I would say that's maybe part of it, but there is this element of wanting, you know, we're really after some asymmetry there.

Starting point is 00:17:17 So we don't want perfect 75 up, 75 down. We want more than 75 of the upside, less than 75% of the downside over the long run. And some of the reason that that's possible is because we are extracting an extra social return from the options markets that's really hard to recreate where you can't recreate it with just cash and equity. So that's, you know, part of the value proposition here is that this isn't necessarily just a way to convert total return into yield. We set that bar much higher when we're trying to design our strategies. We don't want this to be just another proxy of 75% equity and 25% cash. There should be an excess return beyond that that we can deliver through time.

Starting point is 00:18:04 I also think the monthly sticking with the behavioral piece, Michael and I have talked a lot about people's unwillingness to spend from their portfolio. And there's this whole idea that why do you need income when you can just create it yourself and sell the shares? But certain people just don't have the ability to do that. And we've seen this where people come to us and they say, listen, in retirement, I want to live off the income, I don't want to touch my principle. And to us, that seems irrational. But that's the way that some people think about this. And they almost need that income to give them permission to spend. And so I think the fact that you get it on a monthly basis, it's effectively like you're paying yourself.

Starting point is 00:18:40 I think that's got to be a big piece of this too, correct? It certainly is. I mean, it's definitely attractive to have a strategy that's throwing off monthly income. But again, I'll go back and say if this was something that you could simply just sell shares on a monthly basis and recreate the same type of risk return profile, that wouldn't be enough for us. We want to be able to add more value on top of, you know, a strategy that's kind of the do-it-yourself, take capital out as you need it type thing. You know, a couple of things that I'd point out about that comparison would be, you know, it's not only about the yield. It's about stable risk reduction too. You know, so there's the risk that we can take out of the market while, you know, hopefully outperforming kind of the equivalent of cash-based risk reduction. and then, you know, the fact that the strategy of selling like only once a month to take your capital out, that's really path dependent too. So, you know, you're picking a random day just once a month to make a sale. You can have really bad luck in trying to manage that on your own, which, you know, I think is a good maybe segue into one of the other things that we do that's really important, not just for us, but I think anybody looking at option income, you should be thinking

Starting point is 00:20:00 about diversifying path dependency as much as you can out of that strategy through, in our case, we ladder the positions every day, even though they're monthly options. Sorry, what do you mean by path dependency? Like you don't want to have bad luck on the timing of when you implement the options? Yeah, essentially. And we've done a lot of work on this to look at how much does that matter. You know, options are obviously expiring assets. So they're going to be dependent on your trade dates, and then the date they expire or the date that they're rolled. So you have these windows of time where the options in the portfolio. And if you only deploy those, say on like the third Friday of the month, which is by far the most popular path

Starting point is 00:20:46 to take through time, just because that's traditionally been the exchange listing schedule, that approach has really underperformed all the other days that you could have done that historically. And we spent a lot of time on this modeling it. Our team is pretty proud of like the data platform we've built internally to assess all this stuff. But what we found is that simply pretty low-hanging fruit, right, to diversify the paths by instead of just trading the entire overlay all at one price once a month, we get 20 bytes of the Apple per month because they're, you know, about 20 trading days in a month. And we trade 1.20th per day. And that's, really helpful in terms of smoothing the risk return profile.

Starting point is 00:21:32 So if somebody's listening and they decide to invest in one of these products, how does this go wrong for them? In what scenario would they reach out to yours and say, hey, I didn't know that X, Y, or Z could happen. Like, what would be the worst type of environment for something like this? Because I think we all understand the upside, right? It's like, it's the income. It's a stability.

Starting point is 00:21:54 It's not taking all the upside or all the downside. But like, how does this piss people off? Yeah, we spent a lot of time on the kind of pre-education, making sure people understand the expectations going in. So I'm glad you asked about that, Michael. It's fairly straightforward. And as I said, our design is all about trying to minimize any sort of surprises. We want these expectations to be clear on yield and beta. So quite simply, if you zoom out down markets, you know, we're not using any leverage.

Starting point is 00:22:25 We're always fully covered, collateralized, very structurally defensive. So in down markets, we're built to outperform, we expect that, you know, we should do better than the broad markets as they fall. And that's exactly what we've seen in periods like April of this year. Flat markets, we're still going to be collecting that income from option premium, qualified dividend income. And, you know, so we should be outperforming in flat markets as well. Sharp rising markets, you know, our beta is only about 0.75. So we're not going to capture, you know, all of the upside in that type of an environment. environment. But, you know, I think it's also important note, like through a cycle, you usually get a mix of down months flat and up. And so when you get enough, you know, wins on kind of the down and flat markets, you can participate. That's how you get a little bit of that asymmetry capturing more than 75% over kind of a rising market environment through time. So talk a little bit more about the, you mentioned that you do like the options on 50% of the strategy. So essentially, you're saying, like, if you wanted to ramp it up and do options,

Starting point is 00:23:30 like you could increase the income, but that's not worth it to you because you want to have a little more balanced than the total return. And like you said, growing the NAV versus just extracting all the income you can. Exactly. Yep. If we covered the whole, you know, we think of the tradeoffs here as if you've got too much income, you're going to stunt the growth of the portfolio. You're not going to have enough participation. And the only, you know, way to really drive total returns in equity market is, of course, to participate. participate in the upside. So that's where we're pretty thoughtful about, you know, limiting the exposure. All right. So, John, there are a lot of different flavors of these strategies, a lot for

Starting point is 00:24:07 investors to consider. If you had to just pinpoint one or two that really differentiates you from what some other people are doing, what would you say it is? Yeah, you're right. It's, it's a becoming a more crowded space. First, I would say all of these are built differently. It's really important to look under the hood. And so in Vesco, we've been spending a lot of time educating clients on kind of what to look for in option income design. Because that can, you know, the way some of these design choices are made can really impact the outcomes. A big differentiator for us is back to that laddering process, you know, smoothing the path dependency while balancing the yield and the growth. And, you know, to give you an example maybe about why laddering is

Starting point is 00:24:52 important. You think about what happened in in April and the, you know, violent selloff that we saw for a couple of weeks there and then a sharp recovery after. Well, imagine if you had traded your entire overlay on like the third Friday of March and then you've got your hands tied behind your back before you can trade again until the third Friday of April. And all of that activity in between, you really didn't get a chance to, you know, adapt to the portfolio or take advantage of that volatility. In our case, because every day we have the chance to adjust a part of the strategy, we were able to move pretty quickly and kind of adapt to the market conditions, almost like, you know, the Bruce Lee quote, you know, Bwater, my friend, like we were able to

Starting point is 00:25:40 kind of move those strike prices as the environment was changing through time. And that really helped us both on the downside, but then also in capturing more of the recovery than we would otherwise if we didn't have the ability to adapt in times of volatility. I think that's an important point for people who aren't used to dealing with options in the fact that it's really hard to do like a set it and forget it approach with options, right? Because the variables that price those options are constantly changing so much in the stock market volatility is one of them. You almost have to have an adaptive approach for this. Or like you said, you could get, you could just have bad luck and your timing is wrong.

Starting point is 00:26:21 then you're kind of stuck, right? 100%. And that's, you know, again, back to no surprises. If you're only trading once a month, you're kind of, you're taking quite a bit of risk that that path that you're taking is going to be what people expect. So by smoothing it through a laddering process, again, as frequently as daily, we see that having a big impact, even over strategies that only do weekly. I mean, just think about it.

Starting point is 00:26:46 If you only have four bites at the apple to adapt to changing market conditions, that's a big difference between having 20 and 4. Perfect. John, if we want to let people learn more about these funds, where do we send them? There's a great web page dedicated to Income Advantage if you just Google Invesco Income Advantage or look across the Invesco website. There's some really good information that's been put together there. Perfect. Thanks so much, John. All right. Thank you. Okay. Thanks, thanks again to John and Invesco. Check out Invesco.com to learn more and email us

Starting point is 00:27:20 Animal Spirits at the CompoundNews.com.

Animal Spirits Podcast - Talk Your Book: Creating Monthly Income From Your Portfolio

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