Animal Spirits Podcast - Talk Your Book: Investing in the Power Grid

Episode Date: June 29, 2026

On this episode of Animal Spirits: Talk Your Book, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠�...�⁠⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ben Carlson⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ are joined by Ryan Issakainen from First Trust to discuss: investing in the buildout of a new power grid, AI bottlenecks, data centers, thematic ETFs and more.  Find complete show notes on our blogs... Ben Carlson’s ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠A Wealth of Common Sense⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Michael Batnick’s ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Irrelevant Investor⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Feel free to shoot us an email at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation. Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://idontshop.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. See our disclosures here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. First Trust Disclaimer: Mention of a specific security should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell or presumed profitable. You should consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses carefully before investing. You can download a prospectus or summary prospectus, or contact First Trust Portfolios L.P. at 1-800-621-1675 to request a prospectus or summary prospectus which contains this and other information about the fund. The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results and current performance may be higher or lower than performance quoted. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate and shares when sold or redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Today's Animal Spirits Talk Your book is brought to you by First Trust. Go to FTportfolios.com to learn more about the first trust, NASDA, Clean Energy, Smart Grid, Infrastructure, ETF. That's Ticker Grid. Great Ticker, GRID. That's FT Portfolios.com. Learn more. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion, and do not reflect. the opinion of Ridholt's wealth management. This podcast is for informational purposes only
Starting point is 00:00:34 and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ridholt's wealth management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Michael, you and I have been talking in recent weeks about the somewhat surprising winners and losers
Starting point is 00:00:54 from the AI trade. I don't know that anyone really assumes that utilities are like this, fast-growing, up-and-coming, innovative sector. This would be one of the ones to me that I would have never figured out when it first started. The whole AI, boom, that utilities would go crazy and the build-out for the power would be kind of a ceiling on this whole thing. I thought you were a picks and shovels guy.
Starting point is 00:01:18 Is this not part of the picks and the shovels? That is picks and shovels. If I was on CNBC, that's what I would say, yes. True. That's what you want to own. The picks and the shovel. And this is it. and it is interesting because if you just
Starting point is 00:01:30 there was a Robert De Niro movie, I don't know, seven years ago or something, and he was a guy who built the power lines, right? And if you go in any- Whoa, whoa, whoa, what was this movie? I can't remember what it was. Bobby D. built power lines? I mean, he's done a lot of paycheck movies.
Starting point is 00:01:45 It was just okay. But if you go in any neighborhood, anywhere in the country, and you see power lines everywhere, you kind of think to yourself, how old are these, right? They look like they've been here forever. Why aren't they underground or something?
Starting point is 00:01:56 And it sounds like the whole AI buildout has made many people realize that we need to update this grid. That's who they did there. So, Ben, I asked Claude what movie you're talking about. And Claude said, I think the movie you're picturing is Life on the Line. That's it, I think. Sam Rockwell may be in it. But the star is John Travolta, not De Niro. No, no, no.
Starting point is 00:02:18 Tell Claude they're wrong. I searched DeNiro's filmography and there's no power line movie in it. So it's almost certainly Travolta. Everybody's fine. 2009 movie. Okay, you know what? Oh, yeah? What about everybody's fine?
Starting point is 00:02:34 Drew Barrymore, Sam Rockwell, Kate Beckinsale, and Robert De Niro. I never heard of it. Let's see what Claud has to say for itself. All right. Anyway, anyway, what were you saying? Anyway, on today's show, we talked to Ryan Isakain,
Starting point is 00:02:46 and Ryan is a senior vice president, ETS strategist at First Trust, and they have a ETF that is trying to take advantage. of, I guess not trying to take advantage. It was there well before the AI boom happened to build out the power grid because they thought there was necessary to see a big boom in the power grid or a big upgrade in the power grid. And you've got some numbers on this. This fund is growing or has grown like crazy because of AI.
Starting point is 00:03:13 But that was never the point because the fund has been around for a very long time. So what did it grow to? It's that $12 billion fund now? Just about. Anyway. And it's a lot of companies you've never heard of. Some you have, but it's a very interesting thought experiment. You talk about what Taiwan Semiconductor being the transistor or the governor does hold back AI.
Starting point is 00:03:36 Maybe it also is the electrification of the country for building out the data centers. Anyway, fascinating conversation today with Ryan from First Trust. So here's our talk with Ryan is a canon from First Trust. Ryan, welcome to the show. Hey, thanks for having me, guys. All right. So we're talking today about the First Trust. Trust, NASDA, Clean Energy, Smart Grid Infrastructure Fund.
Starting point is 00:04:00 The ticker is grid. Great ticker. This thing has been around. So, all right, I looked on, I went on the white charts as I do, and I go to the fund and I see what's going on. Whoa, $12 billion. Holy cow. This is not a new fund.
Starting point is 00:04:14 It's been around for a while. The objective has not changed. The narrative has changed a little bit in terms of getting the market excited. And I say excited because there's $12 billion in the fund. and in 2023 there was a billion dollars. So a lot of the interest has come over the last, let's say since 2025, the AUM has sex tappled, six tappled, it's up six X. I don't know if I said that properly, but anyway, what's the story with Grid?
Starting point is 00:04:43 Why all of the interests from investors? I know this is a softball question, but here we go. First one. Well, I think it's one of those adjacent themes alongside the buildout of A, and that's what a lot of investors have focused on recently. It's really, when we think about where the bottlenecks are and what could cause AI to not be deployed as quickly as many people might want it to be, it's the demand for power. And of course, you have to connect new sources of demand with sources of generation and that requires the power grid. And so our fund is all about modernizing and expanding power grids.
Starting point is 00:05:22 And as you mentioned, it's been around since 2009. So it's not a new story that we've needed to modernize the power grid. Some of the drivers, some of the reasons for that have shifted. When we first launched the fund back in 2009, the narrative surrounding why you needed to modernize the power grid had a lot more to do with new sources of power generation coming online, whether it was wind or solar. The existing power grid infrastructure just didn't work well. It was designed 100 years ago for centralized power generation and everything flowed downstream from coal fire plants.
Starting point is 00:05:59 Now you're introducing intermittent source of power generation that came and when as the sun set in the evening or the wind stopped blowing. And so you had to figure out how to introduce a new power grid essentially for that. And of course, that's still related. There's still a lot of wind and solar that comes online. but this new source of demand coming from AI has really been a huge driver in the need to really expand and modernize that grid. And so the methodology hasn't changed. The objective hasn't changed, but the driver has really accelerated over the last few years. At what point did you realize, like, oh, our fund is an AI play? Like, what was that aha moment
Starting point is 00:06:40 for you? Like, okay, this is something new now. Three years ago, my team published a piece where, you know, we had kind of recognized it. It was something that was going to create a huge amount of demand and therefore pricing power when you think about how quickly demand has come on for more electricity. You know, when we obviously didn't know that you were going to have AI in 2022, you know, November 2020, you're sitting around the Thanksgiving table with your family and trying to figure out what chat GPT was. You know, we had no idea.
Starting point is 00:07:13 The grid operators had no idea. They thought that we'd have, you know, just that that, that, under 1% increase in power demand year over year that we'd had over the last couple decades. It was really, you know, 23, 24 as those estimates started to get ratcheted higher, that we recognize that, you know, this is something where you're going to have massive amounts of demand if this continues, and it's only accelerated since then. So it's really been over the last, you know, I'd say two or three years that we've recognized that this was one of those adjacent plays to the build out of AI.
Starting point is 00:07:48 Ben and I have been talking a lot about the bottlenecks at every, every stop of the supply chain, which is a natural governor on how fast these things can be produced, which I guess theoretically should hopefully, like, keep some of these things from going completely out of control. In other words, if demand was able to meet, if supply was able to meet demand, then maybe you would say, all right, then now there's an oversupply and everything comes crashing down. So I think this is like a natural governor in a good way. And the way that we've been framing that a lot is like, all right, Taiwan semi, they can only generate so many chips
Starting point is 00:08:29 per minute, per hour, per day. We haven't spent a lot of time talking about the power aspect of this. I'm so ignorant to how all of this works. For a layman, what do some of the capacity constraints to powering these data centers literally look like? I think unlike some of what you might think of with other forms of bottlenecks, you know, one of the differences when it comes to the power grid and the build out of the power grid has to do with the reality that this is all, you know, you build power lines. It goes through somebody's yard. It goes through somebody's business.
Starting point is 00:09:11 There's a lot of regulation that is required that is just unavoidable. And so that's part of the reason why you start to hear these large technology companies introducing behind the meter and some of these other forms of power generation. But I think there is still a massive amount of actual length to the power grid that you're going to have to add to not just the U.S. but also Europe, also Asia, also the developing world. and, you know, it's a massive, massive amount of infrastructure that has to be built. And this is an industrial project. This isn't something where you're just building one factory. This is something where you've got to scale out the entire system. And these are things that take a long, long time to actually take place.
Starting point is 00:09:59 And so you have to get the permitting. You have to figure out all the environmental studies. You have to put the lines in place. You have to put the towers in place. You've got to worry about the, you know, the transformers and the electrical components. the meters, everything in front of and behind the meter. There's a lot of supply chain that has to be built out. There's a lot of CAPEX associated with those supply chains.
Starting point is 00:10:21 And so, you know, one of the interesting things, guys, that we, as we're talking to investors that have heard the story before and now it's starting to become part of the narrative, people wonder, where are we in the build out of this? What inning are we in? You know, that's the parlance, right? And they wonder, is this, because I've heard it so much now, is this something that is just about ready to, you know, turn over? Or are we in the early innings? And we would argue wholeheartedly that we're in the early innings of this buildout because it is such a long project. And it is something that requires so many stages to actually take place. And so along with that, there's unavoidable bottlenecks that are going to be around for a while. And, you know, to your point, Michael, I think that is good. in terms of, you know, kind of as a governor to prevent all the throttle to be down and releasing all the gasoline in the engine. It does kind of slow things down and causes
Starting point is 00:11:21 a process to unfold over the next several years. Ryan, who is responsible for the buildout? Is it governments and municipalities? Is it these tech providers that are building the data centers? Like, who ultimately is on the hook for building this buildout? Yeah, it's a mixture. It's a coordinated. effort between the large technology companies that are making these, you know, hundreds of billions of dollars of investment, along with the power companies, the merchant power companies and the integrated or vertically integrated utilities, along with governments. Governments have to
Starting point is 00:11:55 be the ones that actually approve the regulation and, you know, allow for these things to take place. And so if any one of those parts of the system doesn't do its job, or it doesn't, you know, move along, it's going to slow things down. And so you have to have the utilities adding infrastructure to the system to be able to connect new sources of generation with new sources of demand. You have to have the hyperscalers agreeing to fund their part of what the added costs might be or you're going to have, you know, customers are going to lose their minds over increased utility costs.
Starting point is 00:12:35 Are we already seeing that now where people are homeowners, households are paying more for the electricity because of this? Yeah, I think data centers do have a bit of a PR problem because of that. I think the narrative probably doesn't line up with the reality, and that's often the case. When you think about utilities in our infrastructure has needed investment for a long, long time, and so the cost of that investment to upgrade and expand power grids is already going to increase cost for consumers. There's just no two ways about it. I mean, even in the absence of any of the data center buildout or any of the reshoring of manufacturing and things like, you know, all these other trends that are adding to electricity demand, you're going to have
Starting point is 00:13:17 increased costs because these are poles and wires and transformers and things that have been in existence for a long time that need to be modernized, especially if you're going to integrate new sources of demand or of a supply rather, like wind and solar. And so then the question is, well, do you want these large hyperscalers to come in and contribute to that buildout? because they may actually, even though costs could go up, they could cause costs to go up less because they're actually helping to pay for the modernization of power grids. And even the ongoing operation of those utilities, you know, a lot of, a big portion of that is actually fixed cost. And these, you know, these utilities have an allowed rate of return, the regulated monopolies
Starting point is 00:14:02 in many cases. And so if you're able to spread that fixed cost out among more kilowatt hours that are consumed, you could actually lower the cost per kilowatt hour, which counterintuitively means that data centers could actually be better for consumers than they would be in the absence of those data centers. But to your point, Ben, I think data centers have really, and AI in general has to do a better job in communicating what those benefits are. Ryan, how do you know so much about this stuff? What's your day job? My day job is, that's very, Good compliment. I am the ETF strategist at First Trust, and so we spent a lot of time with my team kind of investigating what the themes are, the trends that are going to drive market performance
Starting point is 00:14:50 that are not already well represented in broad indexes. So, you know, we look at what is in the S&P 500. There's a lot of semiconductors embedded in the index, and maybe you want to overweight semiconductors. That's great. But there's really not a lot of exposure to many of the themes that have been more popular in the broad indexes like the power grid, for example. You know, you're not getting a lot of power grid companies if you just buy the S&P 500. And so we want to know what the stories are, what the drivers might be going forward. So I've been with First Trust for 26 plus years now. And I've had the pleasure working with some really smart people. And I just learned from them. This ETF, you're right, looks nothing like the S&P 500. There is, the top 10 holdings are companies
Starting point is 00:15:34 that most casual listeners or investors have never heard of. 32% of the fund as of March 31st, 2026 is in electrical components. 12% is in multi-utilities. Another 12% is in diversified industrials. This is not Micron, Western Ditch, Sandisk, AMD, etc. Like, this is not that. I have a broad question. When we say, what inning is it or what time is it or however you want to discuss
Starting point is 00:15:59 where we are on the cycle, it's really tricky because there can be a big difference between where we are in the cycle it from like the actual buildout and use case of this AI infrastructure, power, et cetera. We can be very early there where this could legitimately have another three years, another 15 years, like we're just beginning. But then there's a stock piece of it. And those might be on different schedules. It might be three o'clock here, but 1130 there.
Starting point is 00:16:30 And that happened in the dot-com bubble. And right, like the internet was a thing and it barely had even started when the bubble burst. I'm not suggesting that this is going to follow suit, but like it's a really interesting thing to think about. So when I look at grid, this thing is up 100% over the last three years. And I think somebody might look at this and say, oh, I missed it. And I think that is probably the way that the average investor thinks. And I think the average investor is usually wrong when they think about these things. Now, yes, of course, something's triple in over three period.
Starting point is 00:17:00 and you buy the top and they crash. Of course it happens all the time. But for something like this, I think the general attitude towards this whole thing is it's a bubble. And I mean, I don't, I understand that point of view. I don't necessarily know that I share that opinion. What's your take on everything that I just said? And I know it was a bit of a ramble. Yeah. No, I think there is definitely the perception when you've seen something run up that it's easier to think I'm going to wait for it to come back down. I want to wait for a sell-off to happen. And I'm sure there will be sell-offs between now and the next 10 years that investors may say, oh, and now is the time that I can get in at a cheaper price.
Starting point is 00:17:39 On the other hand, they may say, well, you know, it's going down and it's going to drop like the dot-com bubble did when that burst, you know, this is going to come back down. So I would want to own, I don't want to buy these assets as they got cheaper. And, you know, that's the whole psychology of investing. And that's why most people are unsuccessful at investing, especially in these sorts of themes. The way that we look at it is we're not going to time it perfectly. We know that. When we talk about themes like the power grid, we very rarely try to make short-term calls
Starting point is 00:18:09 where we say, you know, we're going to own this for the next month or the next three months. We look at this as being over the next decade, you're going to see massive, massive amounts of capital investment in the power grid. And it really is not just dependent on data centers. That's what's driving the narrative now. but at the same time, you know, my hometown of Syracuse, New York, we're building the Micron chipfabs there. They're going to build four chip fabs over the next 20 years, and they're going to spend
Starting point is 00:18:37 $100 billion doing so, and you've got to supply power infrastructure to those chipfabs. There's a lot of manufacturing that's coming back online. That's driving demand for power grids. There's just failing power grids. You know, every time there's a storm that passes through, people are familiar with losing power. And that's because their power grids are old. They're not hardened. They need to be invested in.
Starting point is 00:19:00 And so one of the things that we like about this way to think about the AI theme is that it's not fully contingent on data centers. Yes, it's going to benefit from data centers. But if data centers, you know, slow down if we decide, you know, we've built enough, you still have a backlog of demand. there's still a few-year backlog of demand for power grid. And, you know, I love illustrations where you can kind of compare two things. So here's my comparison for you. The power grid over the next 25 years, according to Bloomberg, is going to add something like 17 million miles of transmission and distribution lines.
Starting point is 00:19:43 And the comparison is that's enough length to go back and forth to the moon 37 times. Oh, Michael likes these months. This is going to make 60 million miles of length to the power grid, and that's basically here to Mars when they're at the closest point. Well, Ryan, to your point, sorry to cut you off. Yeah, yeah, yeah. In 2019 and 2020, this fund was up more than 40%. It was up almost 30% in 2021.
Starting point is 00:20:09 So that's before ChatGPT was even a thing, and you had really great performance. So I'm curious because if you look at just the top 10 holdings in this fund, there are some names that you recognize in the top 25 holdings, but the top 10, maybe some companies that people are aware of, but certainly not household names. So maybe you could just go through us with the process of how you go about picking the fund, because it looks like, I don't know, just eyeballing at the top five or six companies at least make up, I don't know, 40% of the total or so. Yeah, it is a market cap weighted fund. And really, we work alongside our index provider, which is NASDAQ, what they consult with a firm called Clean Edge.
Starting point is 00:20:51 And all they focus on at Clean Edge, and they've been working as a consultant to the index since we launched our fund back in 2009. They created the index slightly before that. But what they're focused on is identifying companies that generate a substantial amount of their revenue from what we'll call power grid related activities. And so these are the things that we've been talking about,
Starting point is 00:21:12 the electrical components, the transmission lines, those materials, the cabling, So, you know, companies like Prismian, the grid engineering, so Quanta would be an example. You know, all that electrical equipment, companies like Eaton and Schneider Electric and ABB and Johnson Controls and all these names that are very, you know, you don't think of these as sort of the sexy semiconductor names. But the index provider is screening for revenue and essentially it's 80% goes into Pure Plays, market cap way. 20% goes into sort of businesses that have some involvement in the power grid, but they're not driving the revenue. So, for example, they're not the main driver of the revenue. So, you know, Nvidia has had a small position in the fund, capped at 2%.
Starting point is 00:22:06 And that's because Nvidia has very important grid-related software. If you want to manage efficiently your flow of electricity, Nvidia's got amazing solutions for that. And so we do have some exposure to companies like Nvidia. So why is Nvidia have a cap on it? Just because they're not a pure play in terms of the grid-related component of their business. So there's like there's guidelines or things you have to check in a box to be a certain weight in the index. Yeah, exactly. The revenue coming from Nvidia's, you know, power flow management software is not anywhere near what they're generating from their GPUs.
Starting point is 00:22:44 And so, yeah, we do have a cap to incorporate. some of those important companies. They're involved in the power grid, but they're not, they're not the most important driver to the business. What do the earnings of these companies look like? So we've been talking a lot about the storage and the memory companies, Micron and SK and the others, where the earnings were $9 a share a year and a half ago, and now they're $135 a share, like explosive growth. Does it look similar here? And then as a follow up, What do the valuations look like? Yeah, the growth level is not what you're seeing in, you know, Micron.
Starting point is 00:23:23 The pricing power and the revenue that Micron and some of the other chip companies have had over the last several quarters has been nothing short of remarkable. It's been explosive to your point. And a lot of that is because they're so supply constrained in terms of what they're putting out there. They can charge whatever they want to. When it comes to the growth that we've seen for some of the companies in our portfolio, it's more like 15, 20 percent. earnings growth as a portfolio. And so, you know, the good news is it's not explosive, but it is fairly consistent. And as we look forward, you know, I think the supply constraints that you have for some of the chip names, it's really no different for, you know, some of the
Starting point is 00:24:05 companies that are in our portfolio. You're not going to have the ability to meet that supply for maybe a little bit longer time. But as a result, it is a bit more steady. So not, not the level of growth that you're seeing with the chip names, you're also not paying the valuations that you would with some of those names. You're trading as a portfolio at about 24 times forward earnings. That is when you look at the overall portfolio towards the upper end of the range over the last decade, but I think that reflects just the realities of the situation where you're seeing the potential, you know, this relatively robust earnings growth potential for upside going forward, I think is reflected in that slightly elevated multiple. So what are the
Starting point is 00:24:46 one of the cool things about ETFs in general, especially this decade, is just the growth in thematics, and the ability to invest in a sector like this if you have a belief. What would you say to someone who says, well, why wouldn't I just buy the utilities ETF? I'll just buy a utility sector. What's the difference between that sector fund versus what you guys are doing? When we create a thematic ETF, it's not really necessarily constrained by what GSC says or one of the index provider says is involved in a sector. It's really often spanning a variety of sectors. So this fund in particular has some industrials, some utilities, some international companies,
Starting point is 00:25:30 some U.S. companies. The question is different. It's not how do you represent a specific sector. It is how do you benefit from this trend that's playing out over the next several years. And so it's a very, it's a much more tailored focus when you're talking about thematic funds than it is when you're investing in sector funds. Sector funds definitely have their place. We have a lot of sector funds at First Trust. But that's when we're thinking about themes, it's what is the trend, how is the trend playing out, and what sort of companies are going to benefit? And then can we create a portfolio that represents those companies?
Starting point is 00:26:06 Damn, you're good. is the way that things go now with the building out of the power grid, are there any alternative energy sources that could come into play to help? Or is it like, no, this is just kind of the way things go and the alternative energy sources are so far out of the future, it wouldn't make a dent in any of this. One of the great things about a power grid fund is that we don't really necessarily care
Starting point is 00:26:25 what the source of power generation is. That being said, I think there's amazing technology that's on the horizon, whether we're talking about cold fusion, which is always, you know, for the last few decades, has been 10 years off. So we'll see if that comes to fruition or whether it's small modular nuclear reactors. And, you know, there's huge promise for all these technologies having more efficient ways to generate power. But they all still need the same sort of infrastructure if you're going to build them into the system. So if those clean energy sources do come, your fund is positioned to benefit either way.
Starting point is 00:27:03 I think so, yeah, yeah, especially because the current power grid system is not positioned, it wasn't created for those sorts of sources of generation. It wasn't, it was, it was, the power grid was patched together over the last century to manage generation that was centrally located from burning coal or something like that, and then everything flows downstream. When we think about the new power grid that has different sorts of, of generation, different intermittency of that generation, batteries integrated, two-way flow of electricity because someone generates solar power and they want to sell it back onto the grid.
Starting point is 00:27:46 All of that requires a different kind of power grid and a different set of technology. And yeah, so I think either way, we're well positioned with this fund to benefit from that build-out. Perfect. Ryan, if we want to have people learn more about the fund, where do we send them? A great place to find more information on the fund would be our website, which is Ftportfolios.com. I don't know if I can give a plug for the First Trust ROI podcast while I'm on your podcast, but that's another place where you can... That's what podcasts are for.
Starting point is 00:28:16 We've been hosting our podcast for the last few years, and that can be found on all the podcast platforms as well. So we talk about these things and other topics on the podcast that I host. Perfect. Thanks so much, Ryan. All right. Thanks, guys. Okay, thank you to Ryan. Remember check out FTportfolios.com. Learn more about grid. Email us, Animal Spirits, at CompoundNews.com.

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