Animal Spirits Podcast - Talk Your Book: The State of Commodities

Episode Date: July 11, 2022

On today's Talk Your Book, we spoke with Sal Gilbertie from Teucrium about the state of agricultural commodities. Find complete shownotes on our blogs...  Ben Carlson’s A Wealth of Common Sense ... Michael Batnick’s The Irrelevant Investor  Like us on Facebook  And feel free to shoot us an email at animalspiritspod@gmail.com with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Today's Animal Spirits Talk Your Book is brought to you by Tookrium. Go to tookrium.com to learn more about their agricultural commodity ETFs, corn, wheat, soybeans, sugar, and then an equal-weighted version of all of those in a new fund. Tookrium.com for more. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. Michael Battenick and Ben Carlson work for Ritt Holtz Wealth Management. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben or any podcast guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Ritthold's wealth management.
Starting point is 00:00:36 This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Clients of Rithold's wealth management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Welcome to Animal Spirits Talk Your Book with Michael and Ben. Michael, about a week after the war in Ukraine started, we wanted to know what was going on in the commodities markets. We had sale, Gilberti, come on, who had been on the show before. to tell us what was going on with things like wheat and corn and all these really important inputs into the food supply chain. And basically everything he predicted what happened kind of did happen. And so we wanted to follow up with Sal and see what's going on now. I got to say, this is the kind of
Starting point is 00:01:14 stuff I never really put much thought into before, the physical inputs into the world and how really important it is when those supply and demand things get out of balance of one another well because we've had price stability for the last decade plus i don't know basically my entire lifetime everywhere and things went haywire in when was the invasion i think it was february i believe yeah well i mean obviously things were already a little haywire from the pandemic as well things were already true getting crazy and the war just made it even crazier yes we're very pleased to see that a lot of these agricultural commodities that we rely on the entire relies on every day have coming quite a bit. So corn is not quite back to where it was pre-invasion,
Starting point is 00:01:59 but it looks like it's about 18% off its size. And yeah, the stuff that Sal told us last time that eventually these farmers are going to be planting this stuff anywhere they can. Everything is going to be filled up because prices are so high, so it makes sense for them to do that. Did he say that there was record production around the globe? Yeah, there's going to be record production of wheat this year, which is, again, that supply-demand balance. The farmers see the higher prices, they're going to plant more. It makes sense when you think about it. That's one of the reasons that this stuff is so cyclical. Sal talked about that with their own assets and their fund. They come in and they go and they go. So anyway, this is another fun update with Sal Guilberti from
Starting point is 00:02:35 Tukriam. We're joined today by Sal Guilberti. Sal is the CEO at Tukriam. Sal, welcome back. Pleasure to be here, always. All right. Last time we spoke was right after the invasion of Ukraine and commodity prices went nuts, particularly agricultural commodities. There was the whole thing on the LME with the halts and just crazy activity. So it's been a couple of, wow, it's been a couple of months since we had you on. What is the state of the agricultural commodity market today versus then? I think they've calmed down a little bit in terms of we've probably seen the price highs for this move. And I think people are starting to get used to talking about ags having eggs in their portfolio. Ags outperformed, as you said so much, versus almost every other
Starting point is 00:03:23 asset class, most especially stocks, that people who are in our funds and in ag somewhere else are pretty happy. But I think now the froth is off and people are looking at it as do I maintain this allocation because ags are probably going to be tight for another year or two or do I reallocate it somewhere else that we've seen them. We saw a big insurge of AUM and it's kind of leveled off now. Sal, I'm always curious, how much do trend followers impact this market? Because I know commodities markets are enormous, but can trend followers that rush into something like this and then potentially rush out later? Can they have a huge impact on these prices?
Starting point is 00:03:57 Absolutely. Well, I don't know if they can have an impact on prices, but they sure have an impact on flows. I mean, the inflows and outflows come with the trend followers. But ags are so big. I just don't see any single sector or category of investor pushing the price of ags around. They really do move on their own fundamental. else. Okay, that's interesting because I was going to say, like, it's really difficult to Ben's point with commodities in particular, how much of it is producers, hedgers, speculators, but I guess
Starting point is 00:04:21 in the case of something like wheat, that is such a massive, massive market that there's no amount of hedge fund money in the world or CTA money in the world that could dominate the demand from farmers and all that sort of stuff. That's right. I mean, we've been accused in the press around the world of our wheat fund moving prices. And you look at hundreds of thousands of contracts traded that day that we were accused of pushing around. And we sold 50. 50 contracts. Not 50,000, 50. The markets are so gargantuan and the supply demand fundamentals are what set the price that nothing can move it around except that. I said demand for farmers. Excuse me. I meant supply. I meant like demand from like places like general mills and stuff.
Starting point is 00:04:59 We knew what you meant. Yeah. And places like each. I'm sensitive. You should see the comments section. I'm sensitive. Last time we had you on, you kind of predicted, listen, this isn't going to have a huge impact on food supplies. But eventually there's going to be a response somehow. Farmers are going to be planting stuff everywhere they can. Has there been a response yet to take advantage of these higher prices or is it still coming online? The response has been the planting. So remember, we're just at the end of June here, beginning of July, and we're right in the
Starting point is 00:05:26 height of the Northern Hemisphere, got all their stuff planted, and those fields are packed. If the weather cooperates, we will have record production around the world. Russia is going to have record production, apparently. U.S., if we do trendline, we'll have near record production. while Australia is predicting another record crop production. Every place in the world, they planted fence row to fence row because prices are so high, farmers respond when they can. The issue will be, does the weather cooperate and how does the fertilizer and pesticide application
Starting point is 00:05:58 that's been cut back because those prices are so high? How does that affect yields? All right. So last time we spoke, you notified us of the fact that I believe this number was something in the neighborhood of two thirds of all exports of wheat. come out of Russia and Ukraine. Is that roughly accurate or correct me if it's wrong? It's not two-thirds, but in terms of the export markets, about 30%, about one-third. 30%. Okay.
Starting point is 00:06:21 In wheat. So about one-third of global exported wheat comes from Ukraine and Russia. I'm guessing they're not exporting anymore. Well, Ukraine's not exporting anymore, except what they can do nominally through rail, sending it westward through Romania. But that's limited and rail's really hard. The rail lines don't match. They're different gauges there, different widths between the rails. So that's not really effective. I mean, people, it gets a lot of press. It's not going to alleviate the problem.
Starting point is 00:06:47 There isn't anything coming out of Ukraine ports. That's how stuff gets shipped out in volume. That's how wheat and corn gets shipped out in volume. And Russia is shipping. It's hard to follow. I heard a guy who just got back from the Black Sea region on another venue. He basically was saying what they're seeing in the spot markets is that Russian wheat is being bought with a two-week window. So you can ring Russia up and say, I need wheat, two-week.
Starting point is 00:07:11 two weeks from now I'm sending a ship or you have a ship and you're going to send it to me and that's working but there's no forward markets which is odd why well because to get logistics to book a ship to get everything right you should be buying wheat one two three months out I should be calling Russia right now saying I need September wheat and they should be selling it to me now that may be happening through back channels but we don't see it happening in the brokered markets and in the spot markets which means the volumes of wheat that can come out of Russia which are enormous. Russia has a record crop. They're going to have another great crop this year. That wheat should come out. But it's just being booked short term. And I don't know if that's a strategy of Russia's
Starting point is 00:07:48 where they're keeping the turmoil. They're keeping the pressure on the Ukraine. Okay. They're keeping the ports closed. They claim they're negotiating, but they're not. And the reality is Russia's got enough wheat to feed the world. And so they just need to ship and get it out of there. Are they going to do what was done in World War I? There are a lot of analogies to World War I here. What happened then? In 1914 and 15, the Dardanelles straits were closed. You've got the Black Sea, and that's where the Russian and Ukrainian week comes out. That's where most of the volume comes out. To get to the Mediterranean, you've got to go through the Bosphorus Straits and the Dardanelles, and there's a little sea in between, and you get to the Mediterranean. That's controlled by Turkey. When Turkey
Starting point is 00:08:29 closed that in 1914 and 15, that caused a problem. Great Britain had identified it as a problem. As soon as they did that, Great Britain decided the best thing to do was open the straits by force. They attacked and they lost. And a lot of world's wheat was trapped. I mean, there's a great robobank analyst named Dennis Wozenazensky. And he's tucked down in Australia. And he wrote a great piece back in February doing the analogies to 1914. And then the U.S. Naval Department, it's a website of the U.S. Navy, came out beginning of this month, very beginning of June, with a very similar article, given the differences.
Starting point is 00:09:04 and it's fascinating reading if you want to look it up. There's a piece on your website from last month about weaponizing wheat. So a lot of people have kind of said that this whole situation has made a lot of countries maybe rethink the whole globalization thing. What are some of the outcroppings of this or what happens going forward? Do all these other countries begin to try to increase their production or does it make them bend to Russia easier? Like, what happens from all of this?
Starting point is 00:09:27 All of that happens. I think no question, anybody who can grow wheat is going to try as grow as much as they can. anybody who was relying on Ukraine and Russia for supply has to go elsewhere now. And so you've got the supply chains and logistics are going to be difficult because it takes time. It takes time. I mean, I still think Russia's weaponizing wheat because they've got all the wheat. So Russia can literally gift wheat to the countries that have been relying on Ukraine. So Lebanon, Pakistan, Somalia, Eritrea, Oman, those countries that nobody pays any attention to on our side of the world.
Starting point is 00:10:02 Those people import most of their wheat from either the Ukraine or Russia or both. Russia can just gift them wheat or get them cheap wheat or send it directly. I actually think in terms of Russia's weaponizing wheat, they are going to use this entire debacle that they've caused to create instability around the world and then give the people who need wheat and oil, either discounted or free wheat and oil. And those countries will be beholden to Russia. I mean, Russia's being really smart about all this. just making people pay for their commodities in rubles.
Starting point is 00:10:34 The ruble is incredibly strong. It's stronger than it was before the war. What makes a currency worth something? There's a lot of debate about that, but production does. And Russia's got a will and they've got food and the world needs that. So they're going to have a strong ruble. That's how it works. Oh, that makes a lot of sense.
Starting point is 00:10:48 Obviously, we're not like macro Russia guys, but hearing you say that it makes a lot of sense why the rubles been so strong. That's why. It's the first thing a lot of commodities people thought when the ruble collapsed right after the war when all the restrictions were put on Russia. It's like, heck, if you're Russia, just make everybody pay me in rubles. You got to have my oil. You have to have my wheat. Now you have to have my currency, too. Rubles going back up. I couldn't figure out how to buy it. That was a great buy, but I couldn't figure out how to buy it. How much do you think the softening
Starting point is 00:11:17 of prices was because of production being increased around the world versus interest rates increasing signaling potential slow down in demand? Production. I don't think interest rates, I don't think they're having much of an effect at all. I think in our world, supply demand rules and interest rates, if we go up 5 percent and it really costs the guy, interest rates going up 2 percent, who cares? You're still going to plant your field. You're still going to do your work doesn't matter. At this point, the Fed isn't having a huge impact on commodities. You think it's other stuff. I agree. It's just supply demand. Especially agriculture commodities, interest rates rising might curb speculation. It's not going to curb the fact that somebody eats breakfast, lunch,
Starting point is 00:11:57 dinner. That's exactly correct. And I don't even know how it will curb speculation. I mean, anybody really watching their margin account and care that it went from whatever it is, 5% to 7%. You're still going to make the short trade or whatever you're going to do. What about supply chain issues? I was listening to Nike's earnings call last night. And they said still they're paying five times as much as it were a year ago to ship money out of China. Is that still having impacts on agriculture commodities just shipping around the world? Yes. Shipping rates are up. That's huge. The cost of fertilizer went up. Russia's the world's largest exporter of fertilizer, period. They provide more fertilizer than any other country to all the other countries. And you can still get it. You can still buy it, but shipping rates are up. It's just dangerous to go around. People don't want to run afoul of sanctions. And by the way, there are no sanctions on food or fertilizer. You can buy Russian food and Russian fertilizer, and there is no penalty for you, no matter who you are. But the shipping rates are up just because of conflict and the way things work. Insurance rates are up. Nobody knows what's going on. You can't
Starting point is 00:13:00 predict the future. So in terms of logistics, the supply disruptions are unbelievable. The cost increases are unbelievable. Everything started to level off. The price of fertilizer is starting to come down. That's good. People are starting to calm down and realize if I want Russian fertilizer, I can go get it. I just have to pay the higher shipping rates. And so I think things are calming down. Farmers have planted around the world as much as they can. Right now, it goes to weather and logistics, just what you said. Okay, I can't get my weed out of the Black Sea. How am I going to get it? That increase your cost. Sal, last time we talked to you, you said this is the craziest commodities markets ever seen. I think you've said he'd been doing this for, what, 30 years or
Starting point is 00:13:37 so? Yeah. Okay. More than 30 years. Is there anything that transpired in the last few months that has surprised you even further? Any response to this or any price movements or anything going on in these markets that you thought, like, I did not expect this to happen. This is even crazy than I thought. Or maybe things didn't get as crazy as they could have. Like, what's been going on in the last few months since we talked to you. Actually, I think when we last spoke, that was as crazy as it got for me because what's happened is everything we kind of talked through last time, where farmers are going to respond and plant more, prices are going to peak. And at the normal time that they should, which is now that everything's planted in the ground in the northern hemisphere, all of that
Starting point is 00:14:12 has happened. I think that the big wild card for me is still oil. I used to trade oil. I don't understand enough the oil markets right now because everything is telling us that there's not enough oil. China's going to reopen. You saw the open mic leaks yesterday with the G7 meeting and people saying that the big oil producers in the Middle East are producing as much as they can. There's no spare capacity that we thought there was. People are kind of worried about that stuff. Yet when you look at a chart and when you look, you just feel it as a commodities trader, holy cow, these prices are so high and high prices, correct high prices. I don't know how long we can sustain oil prices this high. I don't know how long we can sustain that.
Starting point is 00:14:53 gas prices this high. Natural gas can probably go longer than oil because it's not as fungable, obviously. Our LNG facilities are all maxed out. Are you saying just from the perspective of it's a cost in so many different inputs and how can we afford to keep prices this high, basically? Correct. At some point, demand destruction is going to come through energy. Everybody I know is doing their Fourth of July holiday as planned. Everybody I know is still taking their summer vacation as planned. But every single person I know is moaning about filling your tank up at the pump. At some point, that that's got to hurt. And when you see things like Walmart and Target adjusting their everything downward, their sales projections and their earnings and all that downward, that's pretty
Starting point is 00:15:32 scary because that's trickle up, not trickle down. So I find success goes through trickle down. Extra money trickles its way down. The economy expands. It's been my experience. And when money dries up, it's a trickle up effect. So if the bottom some percent is 20 percent already who are your target in Walmart shoppers are being affected, that means the bottom 40. percent, bottom 50, because it's going to keep creeping up as everybody's disposable income gets sucked out of their pockets by energy prices, in essence, which ripple through everywhere. That's the scary part for me. So what happens in the winter?
Starting point is 00:16:05 What does demand for natural gas look like when you have to heat your home versus now? You can Google it, EIA natural gas stocks. It comes right up. And you'll see they have five-year averages. And during the summer, you inject natural gas into storage. And during the winter, you pull it out because all the wellheads that are pumping out natural gas. They're not enough. If you just imagine a world where the wellhead of a natural gas well is hooked to your furnace, okay? Your furnace is burner. In the wintertime, there are more furnaces
Starting point is 00:16:33 burning more gas than can come out of the wellhead. So during the summer, when there's excess, you have to put it into storage. And that's what's happening now. And the storage is within the five-year average, but it's on the lower range of natural gas. So it looks like we're going to enter the winter with a relatively low amount of natural gas versus five-year averages, if you get a cold winter, natural gas prices are so volatile, and you can really explode higher. Remember, natural gas is the feedstock for fertilizer. So fertilizer prices, while they've come down,
Starting point is 00:17:04 so long as natural gas prices stay elevated, and it seems like they will relative to history, you're raising the cost of production of all crops around the world. And the number one correlated thing to price is the cost of production for eggs. And so ags always return to their cost of production when farmers plant fencer road a fence row to fencer on and get perfect weather. But will that be 350 a bushel of corn like it's been for the last 15, 16 years or will it be 420 or 450? We don't know. So over under 10 hedge funds blowing up from natural gas over the winter. Oh, heck. I'll take the over.
Starting point is 00:17:41 Everybody blows up during natural gas crisis, yeah. Sal, since the last time we talked to you, Tukram has actually added a new strategy that takes all of your different funds and puts them together. So it's wheat, soybeans, sugar, and corn, and puts them into one strategy. What's the ticker? I was going to ask about that. What's the ticker? Well, the new one is T-I-L-L, like tilling the soil. That's a 40-act fund, and so it's just different tax treatment.
Starting point is 00:18:06 We've had our other fund tags that nobody paid any attention to. Everybody thinks it's new, and all of a sudden it's got $50 million in it because people finally paid attention. But it's the same thing. It's 25% sugar, corn, soybeans, and wheat. And essentially, they're the same allocation waiting strategy. Till is, again, a 40-act different tax treatment and it buys its own futures contracts directly. Tags is a fund of funds. Our funds are pretty, we think, efficiently structured to take out the problems with trading commodity funds. And so Tags is actually a fund of our other funds and has different tax structure. And people can talk to their advisors for which one is best. Tell was just launched, so it's doing okay.
Starting point is 00:18:45 But tags really exploded here in terms of AUM, and of course, this performance has been really good. Well, that makes sense, because if people want to expose, they don't necessarily want to pick sugar versus wheat. Number one input we get from advisors. They say, well, I've always had oil. I've always had gold in my portfolio. I guess I should think about ags. Which one do I pick? And so they can pick corn because they're familiar with corn or wheat because it's in the news,
Starting point is 00:19:05 or they can just go with one that weights 25 percent, the big four eggs in the world. What I wanted to ask you is, Michael and I have been talking. a lot about how a lot of the quote-unquote inflation hedges that people thought were going to be one-to-one have not worked out. Bitcoin's the easy one. A lot of people thought that was going to be an inflation hedge. Gold is the one that's kind of surprising. Gold has held up well on a relative basis to like the stock and bond market, but I don't think it's done nearly as well as a lot of gold bugs would have hoped with all the money printing and chaos and the world and all these things and inflation going higher. But obviously agricultural commodities have held
Starting point is 00:19:38 well in energy. So maybe you can talk about in past inflation regimes about why those two seem to probably be the best inflation hedges there are in terms of one to one. I mean, could it be possible that we see an inflation spike in agricultural commodities don't go higher? I mean, obviously, you never say never, but it seems to me like those two spaces are probably the ones that if there's going to be an inflation spike, those are the places you're definitely going to see it. Is that pretty fair to say? That's fair to say. And I think you go back to energy. Energy is the king, in my view, inflation. When energy prices go up, it affects everything else because of transportation and all those issues. So if energy goes up, I think pick your poison in terms of which other asset class
Starting point is 00:20:19 is going to go up as well in an inflationary environment. But if it's energy that's causing the inflation, then you're going to have all the other asset classes, including agriculture, go along with it. Now, this year, it's very unique. So gold was a good diversifier, but it didn't go up like energy and ag because everything goes by its own fundamentals. And energy and ags had incredibly both fundamentals. If we looked at, okay, so my belief is this inflation was caused by real money in people's pockets. We had years and years and years of the Fed expanding its balance sheet. Big deal. Inflation stayed under control. Why? Because real people didn't have their hands on that money to spend it. It was just in the system keeping interest rates low. It allowed people to spend
Starting point is 00:21:01 normally. When you start giving people a trillion dollars in their bank account and say, go out and spend this. They actually do that. There's too many dollars chasing too few goods. I'm old enough to have remembered Econ 101 when they actually taught that. And it works. And that's what caused this inflation. And so that created an instant supply demand imbalance on a lot of things. But then when you have the energy with no crude coming out of Russia, well, it is, but you had the Russian disruption. And then you have the attack on U.S. oil infrastructure where you can't do neutraling. The environmental impact is primary to getting oil out of the ground. So you've had a complete shift in policy in the U.S. So oil companies are afraid. And more importantly, people who went 10 years while you were doing
Starting point is 00:21:46 horizontal drilling and all that and reinvesting in growth, now not returns. So they're asking for their capital back. All that was a perfect storm for energy prices to go up from below zero, where they hit temporarily. And then ags, their own supply demand and fundamentals. We had a tightening ag balance sheet before the war. The world was using for two years, several, different grains, corn, soybeans, and wheat, depending on which one you're looking at, two of the last three years before the war, some of those things, we were using more than we were growing. So that's a supply deficit. You had prices going up. You had stocks to use ratios going down, meeting inventories. And then the war comes. So now you have this huge supply disruption.
Starting point is 00:22:23 In terms of back to your original question, inflation, is it going to work like this every time where energy and ag is going to outperform? Probably not. If it's an energy-related inflationary environment, both will go up and both will probably outperform stocks. Who knows? Hard to predict the future. To repeat what we just saw, this may have been a once in a lifetime event for all us. I know this isn't necessarily your bag, but do you have any color on what's going on in cotton? It seems to be crashing over the past couple of weeks. I don't. Some of these charts, I mean, I know this isn't great for your business, but as a human, and I'm sure you would agree, it's nice to see the wheat prices coming down as they are, the soybean, because this was
Starting point is 00:23:04 getting to the point where, and I don't know if it's crisis averted, but it was getting pretty scary just in terms of like starvation potential because people in less developed countries can't pay for these things. That's right. And we talked about that. I think at the end of the show last time you said, Michael, too much. We signed off. We were going about the bad that could happen if those prices kept going. And that bad can still happen. The prices didn't keep going. But I just read a study somewhere that the relative price of wheat in a lot of these very poor countries where we saw the problems in 2008 is higher than it was in 2008. So those problems are still there. The political instability potential is still there. I do think governments are more responsive. They're just doing
Starting point is 00:23:44 everything they can to get wheat. The problem is going to be if people can't get wheat. That will be true crisis. I don't think that's going to happen. I don't see that happening. I do see the price remaining elevated and people need help. People definitely need help. And you've got Great Britain announcing a lot of support for a lot of these countries that used to buy from Russia to get their wheat. And I think Russia, I'm telling you, Russia's going to step in and give people free wheat or deeply discounted wheat they are. They don't mind political instability in certain regions of the world where we do mind. I think this is a grand plan by Russia. They are very smart. They're playing the chessboard perfectly. And they don't mind causing us problems all around
Starting point is 00:24:22 the world and using weed as a weapon. They don't mind that. So last question for me, in terms of the fun lineup, so you've stayed with agricultural commodities, wheat, soybean, corn, sugar, cane, why not expand to things like, I don't know, coffee, lumber, sugar, orange juice, whatever? Is that because it's impossible to package? Is it because you don't think there's any demand? Just in terms of like the business structure, what are you thinking there? It's the latter. It's the demand. I mean, in business, the corn fund, I think, is 11 years old, maybe 12. I'm losing track. We've been over a decade with these. funds and you literally have to force people to think about eggs. This year, people are thinking about
Starting point is 00:25:02 eggs. People are calling us and saying, wow, I heard you speak five years ago and you said it was sideways and when there was a supply disruption would go up and I sure wish I had put 1% in your corn fund and I'm going to do it next time. And we get calls from people that said, I did put 1% in your corn fund or your wheat fund or whatever it was. And wow, that was great and I'm going to do it again next time. So people aren't paying attention to eggs like they should and it costs a lot of money to run a fund? I mean, you're talking about a sunk cost. Some of these funds didn't break even for years. If I were to do, people beg us to do coffee. They beg us to do lumber. People talk about cotton, but only when it's in the headlines. You do these funds and no one seems
Starting point is 00:25:40 to care. Now all of a sudden, everybody cares. Maybe it'll be worthwhile. But we just went with the big four, the ones no one can live without. And you can make an argument for coffee that you can't live without it. Ben Ken, he's a die Pepsi guy. No coffee for bed. Sal, I've never had a cup of coffee in my life. That's amazing. And good for you. Good for you, really, because I had to be off both coffee and alcohol for a health reason briefly. And boy, oh boy, was it hard to be off coffee to get your day going. It was hard. I make up for it with alcohol consumption. There you. So last week in front of the Senate committee, they asked Jerome Powell, you're trying to raise rates to slow demand. Is that going to slow energy prices? And he said,
Starting point is 00:26:17 no, probably not. And they said, is it going to slow food prices? And he said, no, probably not. is it possible we could see the Fed throw us into a minor recession and commodities prices stay strong? Or do you think that they still have to come in a little bit if we do see it slowed on in demand? I think prices still have to come in. I think an argument can be made. We're in a recession now. I believe first quarter GDP growth was negative. I'm not sure second quarter was any better than first quarter.
Starting point is 00:26:45 So it wouldn't surprise me if people say, wow, we're already in a two quarters in a row, negative GDP contraction. We're in a recession now. That would not surprise me a few weeks from now when the numbers come out if we saw that. But the world goes on. Look, the Fed got it wrong. We know that. But I don't think the Fed raising interest rates is going to affect commodities. I think the price of commodities affects demand for commodities. And the Fed doesn't affect the price. They just don't. And I think gasoline consumption's coming down. I think that people are going to lower the thermostat as much as they can in the winter. The winter is going to be the problem. with energy prices if they don't go down from here, that's going to hurt really badly. And for transportation and heating needs and your basic household around the world this winter are what's going to hurt the economy more than anything the Fed does in my mind. All right, Sal, my wife likes to keep it pretty hot in our house in the winter. I'm going to blame you that I'm going to turn the thermostat down this winter. Okay.
Starting point is 00:27:42 That's fine. All right. We're getting down to 67. Sal, this is great. Thanks again. We're going to send people to 2Cream.com. Is that right? That's right, teukrium.com or you can follow us on Twitter. Our Twitter handle is at two cream
Starting point is 00:27:55 ETFs. Let me spell it for the people. I know people can go to our website to look for this, but it's sort of tough spelling. So go ahead. It's T like tango, E-U-C is in Charlie, R-I-U-M, like Mary.com. Toucrium.com. Actually, last last thing. Where do that name come from? That is an herb. My family's a big growers of herbs and I just thought it was a cool sounding name. I would never do it again because newscasters are afraid to pronounce it. But it's just an herb. It's just an herb in Tukrium trading is our company and it sounded cool. So I did it. Got it. All right. Sal, thank you so much. We appreciate it. Always a pleasure. Thanks, guys. Thank you, Sal. Thank you, Tukrium. For more, go to Tukrium.com.
Starting point is 00:28:48 Thank you.

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