Animal Spirits Podcast - Why Crypto Needs BlackRock (EP.314)

Episode Date: June 28, 2023

On episode 314 of Animal Spirits, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss why the bond market isn't always the smart money, some more good news on the inflation front, why lifestyle inflation is at all-time highs, talking ourselves out of a boom, why smart people have a hard time admitting they are wrong, Bitcoin ETFs, credit card reward point inflation, the most charismatic actor of all-time, and much more! Thanks to YCharts for sponsoring this episode! Check out YCharts' latest research on which portfolios and asset classes perform best during Fed Rate Hike Cycles: https://go.ycharts.com/managing-rising-rate-environments?utm_source=Ritholtz Find complete shownotes on our blogs... Ben Carlson’s A Wealth of Common Sense Michael Batnick’s The Irrelevant Investor Feel free to shoot us an email at [e-mail] with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.   Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com   Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's Animal Spirits is brought to you by our friends at YCharts. Check out YChart's latest research on which portfolios and asset class performed the best during Fed rate hike cycles. All right. So they looked at 10 different allocation strategies and how they performed 60, 40. Then they did like a 55, 35, 10, which is like commodities as the 10. They looked at the rate hikes during 1999 to 2000 that started, 2004 to 2006. How's a 50-50 maker-down-Ave portfolio? The other thing is, like, they look at what happened after the rate-taking cycle and during,

it's, I don't know. I think these kind of scenario analysis tools are good for, especially advisors, for setting expectations and looking through the range of possibilities, because obviously there's no one perfect portfolio in the moment. You only know with hindsight. So if you want to learn more, check out the link on our show notes. And again, go to ycharts.com, Pellum analyst spirit sent to you 20% off that initial subscription.

Welcome to AnimalStrecht. Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Riddholz wealth management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Riddholt's wealth management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben.

I want to give a plug for Future Proof before we start today's show. Ben, do you know about breakthrough? The word? Yes. Do you know about Breakthrough as it pertains to Future Proof? Yeah, this is the FinTech thing? No. So the answer is no. No, you don't know.

All right. So breakthrough is something for people in the financial services industry. If you would like to attend Future Proof, but you don't necessarily want to buy a ticket, if you agree to do this breakthrough session, so you have to, you attend eight meetings, and I believe they're 15 minutes, don't quote me on that. If you attend eight meetings, and this is meetings with asset managers, wealth tech platforms, so if you agree to attend eight of those, you get a free ticket, a free ticket. Now, if you agreed to do it, but you only go to four meetings, you get charged.

So you have to go, you have to actually go to the eight meetings. They track you. And, but wait, there's more. They'll also give you a $750 travel stipend if you submit receipts. Not bad. I don't mean to like compare our festival to a timeshare, but I had a friend this week asked me about timeshares. And they said, we did one like Breckenridge, but to get a deal on this place, we had to go

to like the hour and a half timeshare meeting. So this is kind of like a timeshare meeting. Same thing. Same concept. All right. So we'll link to this in the show notes. It's futureproof.advisor circle.com slash breakthrough, which is a lot. That's breakthrough, T.H.R.U. Just search for the show notes.

Again, if you're in the financial services industry, attend eight meetings, you get a free ticket and $750 travel stipend. One last thing. Can we just agree to put through to T.H.R.U? Like, my kids are going through spelling stuff in school. And, like, the way that we spell words is just, we've talked, it's so dumb. Like, can we just shorten all the things to make them easier? I'm not opposed to amending the English language. Sure, why not? Let's do it. One last thing. If you are a fintech company and you would like the opportunity to do a demo, there's going to be seven companies with seven minutes each. And I can't think of a better place to get in front of advisors, asset managers, and the like. I'm sorry, but the word breakthrough for that would be good, too. All right. Well, it would work. All right. On to the market. I just saw a crazy stat. We have now gone. I'm doing. there's from memory. So it's, it's directionally right. I'll find the, I'll find the tweet later.

There's some Deutsche Bank. We've gone like 87 days without a 3% drawdown in the S&P 500. So you're pushing up against historical highs. I don't know if we're in the 90th percentile, but how about that, 87 days? So I looked, I told you that we did actually have a 7% in change already this year. I guess it was more like February in March. I did do some follow-ups on stuff we were talking about last week. Sometimes we don't have it. Uh, 1926 to 1949, 6.8% annual returns. Remember you're talking about that because of the Great Depression? We spoke about that. We took away, we went to 1959. 36% of all years since 1928 ended up 20% or more versus 27% that ended down. So I said,

you're more likely to have an up 20% year than a down year. Wow. That's true. So more than one third of all years since 1928. We're talking 95 years of data. You've, you've had a 20% gain or higher in the U.S. stock market. Pretty good. 57%. So six out of 10 years, basically, you're up 10% or more in a given calendar a year. Not bad, right? Not bad at all. We'll take it. All right. This is from Sean, a research analyst.

Year to date, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and MEDA have added a combined $3 trillion market cap. So I gave the follow-up stat to Sean, said that sounds like a lot. What did they lose in their drawdown? And I think it was $3.5 trillion. So we've almost round-tripped on market gap for those big names. That's a lot. Here's a data point. Remember, you did something like Apple's market cap is bigger than all of Europe?

Right. Is that true? Is that right? Well, I think it was Apple's market cap is bigger than the UK or Germany stock market, something like that. Okay. That's right. I think it was the UK.

Yeah, not all the people. That makes no sense. This is from bespoke. Apple's App Store now generates $1.1 trillion in billions in sales on a global basis, making it larger than the annual GDP of all but 16 countries and larger than the GDP of countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Switzerland. living in Taiwan. How's that for a mind blower? A face blower. Wow. Every week, it's like cementing the status as like the top dog. Now, what odds would you

give Apple being out of the top 10 in the S&P over the next like 10, 20 years? Would that be a bigger surprise in any other company right now? Apple falling out of the top 10. Well, yeah, I just, the services component, how do you get, how do you bust that up? You know what I mean? Yeah. If you told me that, If you told me that we're not using the iPhone in 20 years the way that we do today, I would believe that, right? Hardware. Who knows what it will be? Is there going to be a chip in our brain where we're taking phone calls?

I don't know. So I feel like that's potentially disruptable. Who knows? The service is part of it. That seems, I don't know who does that. Although I guess I would go part and parcel with the phone. So earlier in the year, up until really just the other day, bond traders. And what I mean by this is if you look at Fed Fund futures rates and projections,

and I'm using a tweet from Cali Cox. Bond traders had expected the Fed to cut at some point later this year until today. For now, the market is accepting what the Fed has been saying, which is higher for longer. I know that everyone says the bond market is the smart money, but I feel like every long-term bond projection chart looks like this. Bond yields go this way or this way, and then you see the dots that went the opposite way. For years, everyone was predicting rates we're going to rob. and they never did, they kept falling, every one of those charts would show, at the beginning

of the year, strategists or the bond market thinks rates are going to rise, and then they'd fall. And now everyone is predicting rates are going to fall, and now they keep rising. So it's the opposite. Like, just the bond market is purely momentum traders, it seems, like in the short term, people look at what happened in the last six to 12 months and say that's going to keep happening. Or this happened last cycle, it's going to happen again. I don't know. The bond market is dumber than people think. No, no, no. When people say the, no, no. No. When When people say the bond market is a smart money, this is not what they're, they're not

talking about that bond market, that bond traders know where rates are going. They're comparing bond traders versus stock traders. And if you're going to trust an analyst in a stock, fixed income researchers generally know more than fundamental stock analysts. I think that's what they're talking about. Nobody thinks that the, that's what it is. I think, what people say, what people, all right, go ahead. The idea is that the bond, the deal is that like the bond market can help set expectations about

economy like inverted yield curves and all like the forward growth and all the that's the idea of bond market like generally shows what's happening with the economy or what's going to happen in the economy that's definitely just saying the bond market is dumber than people give it credit for well maybe it's not as smart as people give a credit for right uh somebody emailed us about this inflation what is this so you asked last week why do they take food and what did they take food out if it basically looks like it just follows CPI Someone says, my understanding is that as inflation was becoming a vulnerability for Nixon in the early 70s, there was a politically motivated decision to drop food prices from the

calculation because they were rising so quickly at the time, not that they were more volatile over the course of history. The academic justification followed a political decision. So this chart from Fred shows yearly changes in CPI, CPA food, CPI energy, and CPI less food and energy. And you're right, they're pretty darn close. But when you hear, like, core, you know, the media will say excluding the volatile energy and food components. Some other, someone else said that, like, someone else said it could be because there's, like, exogenous shocks to food that could be, like, weather related or bad harvests or an OPEC could be fixing energy prices and that sort of thing.

Okay. Here's your first piece of good news. Matt Iglesias tweeted this this morning. Average hourly earnings on a real basis are now higher than the inflation level for the first time since. early 2021. So we talked for a while. People have been getting raises, but the wage growth

has not been as high as inflation, unfortunately. If you change this, so you're looking at average hourly earnings compared to CPI. Yeah, it's on a real basis. This is monthly, right? So we're looking at monthly snapshots of time. And it finally went positive

for the first time since pre-2020. If you looked at the, if you looked at the cumulative, effect of this, it's probably pretty gnarly. You know what I mean? Like the amount that earnings have lagged inflation on a cumulative basis is probably a huge gap. Yeah, but if you look at the cumulative effect over the long term before this on a real basis, wages have been going up. This is the first time in a while where real wages have been going down. No, I'm just saying. It's been like a, it's been a two plus year period where...

Hey, let me have my good news. This is my case of optimism for the day. I'm just saying that like, if we're talking about, like, positives for the economy going forward, this has to be a good thing, that inflation is now, inflation is rising at a lower rate than wages are rising. No, it is a good thing. I'm just profiting context. It's not like just because we have one good thing. It doesn't erase all the bad.

That's all the damage that's all. I also think, so the New York Times had a piece on inflation. And this piece stuck out to me. You know how I love the anecdotes from individual people. I don't think you can say that the anecdotes are what's happening for everyone in the economy. But I thought this really ranked you of like lifestyle inflation. So Silas Scarborough. 42 has witnessed both features of today's economy, fast wage growth and rapid inflation.

This guy works as a home builder, analyst in Sacramento, and said his skills are in such high demand. He could get a new job if you wanted. He got a 33% raise when he joined a new company two years ago, and his pay has climbed to Morrison. So this guy has outperformed inflation, right? Big time. This guy's made way more money. He works in the housing industry.

Even so, he's racking up credit card debt because of higher inflation because he and his family spend more than they used to before the pandemic. They've gone to Disneyland twice in the past six months and eat out more regularly. he says he gives yolo as his explanation you only live once uh he said he felt okay about spending beyond his budget because he bought a house just at the start of the pandemic and now was about a hundred thousand dollars in equity in fact he's not even worried about inflation as much these days it was much more salient to him when gas prices were rising that was the time when i really felt like inflation was eating to our budget i feel more comfortable with it now i don't think about it every day

remember we talked about the gas prices being up there in big bold letters but i think you could probably make the case that for a lot of people the lifestyle inflation in this period where we've just spent a ton of more money and travel and doing stuff and going out, the lifestyle inflation has really increased for a certain segment of the population. Fair? Yeah, I was thinking about it yesterday as I was in JFK en route to the other, the West Coast. And I was thinking in my head, like, of course, you know, anecdotes are not data, but the airports are so full. So, so fall. When I landed in California,

it was 9 p.m. local time. And I'm not going to complain about my flight because nobody cares. It was 9 p.m. local time. And there was a whole, just packed people waiting, waiting. This is an obvious take, but you texted me. Is there anything better than drinking in the airport? And I know this is not like a new take by any means, but it is, there's just something about being in there where you just say, screw it. I need a drink.

It's ultimate freedom. There's no life ceases to exist. Responsibilities don't matter in the airport. I was thinking about, oh, credit cards. Here's what I want to say. Actually, we're recording with Chris Hutchins talking about, like, credit card points, and Chris Hutchins has a podcast called All the Hacks, and we're to be talking about credit card points.

So remember I was saying that I want, I got the American Express, the Delta Reserve card, to have access to the Centarian Lounge and the Nice Lounge in JFK. You told me that you were going to the airport early to go to the lounge. Well, I wanted to see what was up. Okay. So I get to the center. So I honestly have never been in one of these lounges before.

Do you have to actually show that, like, how do you prove that you can make it in? I'll tell you. Okay. So I'm on my way to the airport and Chris goes, hey, just FYI, our corporate card, gets you access to the Centurion Lounge. And I'm like, you got to be kidding me. I just spent $550 for this card. Now, there's other price, of course, but to get access to this lounge. See, that's the problem.

Everyone has access now. Well, so, wasn't it, was there an article that we were speaking about last week about how credit card points are ruining, like, the lounges? Yeah, there's, like, lines out the door to these places now. So anyway, so I went to the Centurion Lounge, very nice in JFK Terminal 4. And then I wanted to go to the Delta Sky Club lounge, which is, which has, you okay over there, which gives access to more people. So you don't need, you just need, I think you did lounge, you were lounge hopping.

I was lounge hopping. So I wanted to go to the other lounge just to, just to compare and contrast. And I felt like a schmo because the other lounge had like a 15 minute line. So I'm waiting in line. I'm like, well, this was a dumb decision. And then when I get in there, it was gigantic, huge inside, huge. And so the Centurion lounge, it's like free drinks and free food. and the other place at Delta Sky Club lounge.

No free drinks. All right. Maybe the reason that credit card are actually able to do this, I was going to get to this later, is because fewer people play off their credit cards. Last week we talked about how many people actually pay their credit card. I think we estimated 30%. Now, I couldn't find good hard data on this. I found a bunch of surveys.

One of them said 55% of people carry a credit card balance from month to month. This one's, another one says 44% are what they're. call revolvers and carry them from month to month. Those numbers are way, way, way higher than I would have thought. I think we both took it. We both took an out on that. By the way, speaking of that, I was talking to somebody about the Amex card. Somebody came to the office and I had just hung up with Amex trying to get approved for

this card. And this is in the conversation where I said, imagine like Ken Griffin, when they're checking your income. Yeah, last year I made $2 billion. Am I approved? Anyway, I was saying like, it's so nice. No, it's at Amex, which I think spent $3 billion last quarter on rewards. I think that was a number.

Where are those points coming from? Obviously, it's from people that don't pay, right? And the rate is 28%. At least it was for me. That's what I was quoted. And he made a good point. He's like, I know a lot of people that get paid quarterly that will rack up a bill because they don't really care because they make so much money, but it's just their income

is lumpy. And they're happy to use Amex as sort of like a go-between. Like the advanced pay, which was like, huh, okay. That makes sense. It's also the 2 to 3% fees they get at the merchants, every merchant. That thing is the, a lot of people mention that too. It's not just rewards. It's like every time you swipe a card, the merchant has to pay a 2% or 3% fee to the credit card company.

So here's a teaser. We're going to get into it with Chris Hutchins. Somebody tweeted, I am Jake's true. I forget Jake's last name. He said, so it used to be the case that you could book hotels and stuff through Chase using your points and you'd save something like 25%. Now it seems like they mark everything up 30% to offer fewer benefits than if you were to book direct.

Have you noticed that? Yes. I think there used to be, and maybe you get more points if you book with them, but you don't get deals anymore, I don't think. Okay. So I got an email from Jeep.

The Jeep Rewards MasterCard. What? Why is there a Jeep Rewards MasterCard? Before we get into this, do you, now that you drive a Jeep, do you have to do like the dorky Jeep wave to everyone? Like if you see a Jeep Wrangler? You do that? Not only do I not do it. I haven't noticed anyone do it to me. Maybe there's more on the road. I remember I had a friend in high

school had a Jeep and he would do it to everyone and we always make fun of them. Yeah. So 7% unlimited cashback on purchase and made it your dealership? I mean, how often you go into the dealership? That's a good. Seriously. Who sees it? It's like, ooh. That's a good question. All right, we go to the credit cards? Yes. All right, I like this take from James McIntosh at the Wall Street Journal, asking, like, where's the recession we were promised? And he goes into the inverted yield curve, which we've talked about a lot. In 1966, the yield curve inverted about a recession, but the next eight recessions have been preceded by an inversion. This is interesting, though. In the UK, there's been six

inversions since the 1980s, and only three times did it lead to a recession. But I love this take here. When the curve inverted before 1990 in 2008 and 2009, corporate investment went up as the economy went into a final growth phase. This time, CEOs and CFOs with an eye on the curve might have exercised some caution, basically the idea that everyone has been predicting at recession, so they kind of pulled back, helping moderate the boom and so extending the period of growth. Rather than talk ourselves into a recession, maybe we merely talked ourselves out of a boom. I really, really love that take. This is one of those takes I wish I would have thought. So he's saying, because remember, we had this discussion, can we talk ourselves into

recession? We were saying the economy's fine, but the way people are talking and the vibes are off and all this stuff. Can we talk ourselves on a piece thing? Finish. I'm sorry. Yeah, maybe we didn't talk ourselves into one. We talked ourselves out of there being like this crazy boom. And I really like that take. Yeah, that's going. Remember last year I was asking is the stock market gaslighting us? Right. It kind of did. I'm seriously coming around to the idea that like there's no recession in 2023. If you're predicting that now and you have been for a while, you're wrong. 2024 maybe, I think we can potentially push us out to like 2025. I still, I think that's a really high, high probability. Let's get through the end of the

year first. I think the stock market selling was, was, I don't know if rational is a right word or reasonable. I think, I think I'm going to use both a combination of rational and reasonable because the stock market had it went on like a silly run, right? It was like 19%, 28%, 31%. It was it was up until the right. It was stupid. It was rereading. And then it was a rewriting. And I think, guess what? Deservably so. The stock market re-rated these companies in anticipation of earnings falling that never happened, valuations being too high. Okay. So even though we didn't get a recession yet, I don't necessarily think like the stock market was wrong to do what it did. I also think part of the thing about everyone thought, like if rates go to 5% and the stock market has to fall

this much, and because that's the way that rates and markets work, I think the Fed has, because they've communicated so much and they've laid out the expectations, I think now that we know where rates are headed, that that's, you took the volatility scenario out of it. Like, I don't think people understood, well, how high do rates really have to go here to bring inflation down? And not that inflation is heading in the right direction and we kind of have an idea where rates are going. You took the volatility out of that. Maybe the stock market just appreciates that more than anything. The fact that they, like, we know what's going to happen with rates. That's a good point. I think, I think rate volatility collapsing has definitely been a

talent to stocks, without a doubt. Right. It's like the inflation volatility and rate volatility has come down, and that has been why volatility in stock market is falling. This is a true story. It happened right here in my town. One night, 17 kids woke up, got out of bed, walked into the dark, and they never came back. I'm the director of Barbarian. A lot of people die in a lot of weird ways. We're not going to find it in the news because the police covered everything all up. On August 8th. This is where the story really starts. The new BMO ViPorter MasterCard is your ticket to more. More perks, more points, more flights, more of all the things you want in a travel rewards card, and then some.

Get your ticket to more with the new BMO ViPorter MasterCard and get up to $2,400 in value in your first 13 months. Terms and conditions apply. Visit BMO.com slash V-I. Porter to learn more. All right, here's some bad news. U.S. bankruptcy filings by year, showing year-to-date through May, and we've had 286 companies go bankrupt. This is the highest through May since 2010. Your thoughts?

I don't know. Don't you think a lot of these just got pushed out from the past? This is playing catch-up. like people could take the PPP loans and hold off for a while people are spending and now this is this is coming back I think this is one of the areas where you're seeing um where you're seeing liquidity effects right is like just people don't are not people are less willing to throw good money after bad but this does look like this does looks like instead of maybe like panicking maybe this is just a catch up to uh because we we had a risk look at how high 2010 was 828 or something

we technically had a recession in the pandemic and you didn't get a spike in bankruptcies. I guess you got a little one in 2020, but not huge. I feel like you've heard about zombie companies a lot over the last decade or so. And maybe this is just the manifestation of those companies not going bankrupt when maybe they should have. All right, but this is, but this is maybe some good news to counterpoint that. Julian Klymochko, Klymuchko, Klymuchko, not sure. he said credit investors rejoice 62% of new junk bond issued are secured the highest rate in recent history good thing as defaults arising the trailing 12-month speculative grade rate was

3% up from 1.2% in early 2022 so again this is good right that like junk bonds that are being issued are coming with more protection for investors okay we'll take it that's the other thing is we just haven't we've seen the inverted yoke we still haven't seen spreads below yet No, no. This has been simmering underneath the surface for really the last, I don't know, 15 years, just the distrust of experts, government, media. And I feel like it's been ramping up and reaching a boiling point, certainly on Twitter, which is, you know, it's an echo chamber, but it is a decent proxy, at least in this respect for how things are working in the real world. somebody tweeted, Dr. Benjamin Braddockum, I don't know who this person is, said the gap between the economic stats and the actual economy is wild. I'm now fully convinced that the jobs number,

GDP calculations, all of it, it's all completely fake. And then Elon tweeted, the numbers don't make sense. Something is off kilter. And you laugh, but this shit scares me. Like, just complete mistrust of data. Well, I think, I think on the one hand, yeah, it's okay to question things, certainly. I don't think you should take everything at face value, but I feel like it's going to a dark place that makes me uncomfortable. I think this is another outcome of 2008 where people thought that being contrarian was the same thing as being smart. I'm blaming Michael Lewis for like 20% of this. I love Michael Lewis, but I think the big short really screwed people's brains up. And I think a lot of people thought, I'm going against the grain like these people

did because that makes me smart. And so they go against the Korean. You're blaming the You're blaming the book? I'm tongue in cheek here, firmly in cheek. I also think because everyone has a, has their own microphone now. By the, you just folded like, I'm sorry, you just folded like a cheap suit. I asked you to defend your take and you totally walked it back. Yeah, I was, I was joking. But I think people who've gained success in one area in life now have this megaphone to go

and talk about other things. And I think we've learned that successful people in one area of life, they can be brilliant in that one spot. But when it comes to things that are out of the realm of experience and a lot of that, that is like politics and economics, the fact that they've been so successful in one area, they assume it translates and so many times it doesn't. And when they're proven wrong, then they say, I'm not wrong. It's actually the numbers are wrong.

How can I be wrong? I'm smart. Look at all this money I have. And I think that's the thing is like the contrarian streak and the fact that these people aren't used to being wrong or they're not used to being told no. And they get on social media and people say, no, you're an idiot. You're wrong. And they say, no, that can't be right.

I'm actually right. It's just this stuff's wrong. so I think the rich and powerful people now just they don't want to ever admit that they were wrong about something but it's not just the rich and powerful though they're very influential and then you know they they galvanize like armies very very quickly yes there's a lot of cheap I think there's just a lot of people out there who who want the world to like just form fit to their view of how things are. And like, are economic stats perfect? No, because they're based on surveys and a $26 trillion economy is hard to gauge. Well, not all that is based on surveys. What about

like jobless games? That's hard. That's hard data. That's not a survey. And they don't trust that. Thinking that everything's fake, it's like, I'm just saying like the stuff is not perfect because it gets revised. And, you know, so that kind of stuff does change. But it's the trend that matters. And I think you can get a good sense of how things are going based on the trend. But if you are using anecdotes, like the stuff you hear on social media or the stuff that one or two people say, you think that's the economy, then, yeah, you're way off base. All right. Let's talk about crypto.

I can't, there's a lot going on here. They're going to approve a two-time levered Bitcoin futures ETF before they get a spot one. Is this real life? I don't get, yeah. I honestly don't get what the SEC is waiting for. It does seem like last week was the first time, though, where people thought, oh, BlackRock's going to be here, Fidelity's going to be here, all these big name asset managers.

Like last week, I felt the first time in a while that people thought, okay, like this could actually happen, the Bitcoin ETF. It is, the leverage thing is truly bizarre to me, and I can't really explain it. But I... If they're talking about investor protection, I just don't get it. It seems, it doesn't seem to make sense. Larry Fink had, please correct me from Morgan,

I feel like he'd been an outspoken critic of crypto in the past. Is that right? I think so. I'm like 70, 80, maybe I'll doubt it up. I'm 80% sure that he had said some really not nice things. I think most traditional finance CEOs have said something bad about Bitcoin or crypto in the past. Yeah, I'm sure he has. Anyway, last week he was in an interview and he said,

the hits on our website was $3,000 for monetary policy and $600,000 for Bitcoin. Quote, many people are fascinated about it. Many people are excited about it. So, yeah, I was saying to Josh last week, I think there was like, depending on what happens, could be looked back on as the watershed moment for crypto. Why is the picture of literally thinking this tweet looks like it's taken from like 1984? The picture wasn't necessary. Yeah, that's a good point.

Somebody wrote Stack Holder. So now the asset managers who thought Bitcoin was cooked or jockeying to secure a position before the ETFs go live. But 70% of the supply is already in the hands of psycho. who didn't even flinch when FTX blew up, look at me in my laser eyes, the bidding begins at 100K. This sort of made me laugh.

Okay, that's not bad. Like, BlackBoss is going to take the Bitcoin from my cold dead hands. My initial thought on this was, if there was an ETF, Coinbase is cooked. How could Coinbase still be a $13 billion company if we get a Bitcoin ETF?

Who's going to transact on Coinbase now? Well, they're going to custody, the ETF for BlackRuff. So the Wall Street Journal wrote about this. And they said that Coinbase, let's see, another on this winner in any scenario might be Coinbase. On the one hand, easily tradable spot ETF could take some market share among individual investors or otherwise might sign up on its platform. On the other hand, Coinbase is also the Bitcoin custodian for Black Rock's proposed trust and for the grayscale trust and earns fees doing so. A steady revenue source than the transaction volume-based fees.

Coinbase's institutional business is also poised to be a hub for market makers that make trades around spot ETFs. So there go. My initial thought there was probably a little off base. But that, to me, seems like a commodity kind of thing, doesn't it? Unless no one else wants to do that. Why couldn't someone else come in and do that? Here's my thoughts on the matter as far as this pertains to Coinbase. Going forward, there will be two types.

Let's assume that a spot Bitcoin ETF gets approval. There will be two types of people who purchase Bitcoin, Ether, whatever. It's going to be people that are cold storage. Right? Like the real, real, real, real hardcore don't want anything to do with TradFi. I want my Bitcoin and it's mine. I'm sorry, but those people are wrong. Like, crypto needs Tradfai. The people who have that, that libertarian, I'm just saying those people are, they've been proven wrong. That doesn't work. Proven wrong half. Traditional, the crypto universe cannot police itself. We need, crypto needs traditional finance if it's going to take the next leap forward. That's, that's the only thing that I can say definitively from the last three years of. watching the circus that has been this space. Okay, fine. Fair enough. But be that as it may.

I think there are people that are going to want to own their keys, right? The whole not your keys, not your wallet, not your keys, not your crypto, whatever. There's to be those people. Then there's going to be people, normal people, that are thrilled to get it through an ETF. My point is, how much demand is there going to be to buy Bitcoin on Coinbase when you could just get it in an ETF inside of your broker account? Right. Did you not, did you not, you make a prediction about the assets in this when you're talking to Josh last week? What was your prediction? Oh, I think I said a hot. If a spot ETF comes. Yeah. So not just one, but Bitcoin, spot Bitcoin ETFs will have

$100 billion in under three years. 100 billion? This is a lot of money. That's a lot of money. Yeah, you know what? I'll stick with it. Okay. That's a, all right. That's a lot. That's a big number. Maybe I should cut that in half. But you know what? I said it. I'm going to stick with it. Um, Last week, crypto assets had their largest inflows of the year, which is, you know, not surprising, over a year. So, yeah, I think it's important. I think it's very important.

And obviously, the market thinks so with what's going on with price. I don't think BlackRock and Fidelity would be getting into this if this wasn't real. That's my only takeaway. Yeah, I agree. I don't think that Black Rock's like, yeah, let's see what happens. Right. It seems like, I would assume they know something. All right. So we got a big housing start number month over month rose 21%, which was the highest level in the last, or I'm sorry, it rose 20% month over month, which is only the fifth time in the last 20 years.

So you spoke about trends earlier. The trends on housing starts is not great. So is this, is this a one-off or is this is this is this the bottom? Don't we just assume that this is, again, it's all a new builder thing. Like builders are the only game in town. Is that the idea? You know what happens when you assume, right? What? You make an ass out of you and me. I know, I know. That was, how many times did you hear that?

I feel like that was a good way to identify, like the corny dads back in the day. I think that will die with the millennials, right? That's a little, that's a step too far. How about this? I pledge to you, I'm talking to you. I'm pretty sure those sorts will never come out of my mouth to my children. Fair. I did see a Jeep Wrangler today, speaking of your Jeep, that on the tire cover, like you have to put

a cool, ironic, funny thing, and it was a gear shift, and it said, like, uh, millennial security device installed on this, saying like, millennials can't drive a stick shift. I can't drive a stick shift? No, I can't. Okay. My very first, I'm an old millennial, so my very first car was an 89 Honda accord, just a pile of crap, and it, it was manual. And the, you know, my dad took me into the parking, I like to try to teach me to drive it,

but the first time I ever drove it to high school, when I got my license, I sold out like six times in the way to school. it's hard, but it's actually kind of fun to drive a stick shift because it feels like you're a race car driver. I was always impressed with people. Totally unnecessary. Yeah. Yeah, totally. I bet I could do it now if I had to do, but it's totally unnecessary.

Okay. According to Redfin, their date only goes back to 2012, but last month, there were fewer homes for sale in May than any of the month on record. Are there any homes for sale in your neighborhood? Because there's like none in mine. Super dry. There is the one. I mean, not much. So housing supply has fallen 38 or 39% from pre-pandemic levels this May, which is just, yeah, just continues.

There's just not much activity. This is a good one. I can't remember where this is from. First American. All right. Remember the idea in the 2010s that millennials were just never going to settle down? They're never going to buy houses and never my cars. Sure do.

As of 2022 per census, 51% of millennials are homeowners. The bulk of millennials are over the age of 33, nearly half are married. and 40% have a bachelor's degree, making millennials the most educated generation in American history. Their whole point was the 2008 crisis pushed things back, but also people just got more educated. At age 30, 42% of millennials on home compared to 48% of Gen X at the same age. Over the past decade, however, at age 41, millennial homeownership is 62% when Gen X stood at 64%. This is one of the things that I think I blogged about back in like 2013, saying eventually millennials are going to grow up. I saw all my friends doing this. They moved to a big city,

and then eventually when they settled down, they moved to the suburbs and buy a house. That's just the right of passage. You knew what was going to happen eventually. This is an interesting one from Denver. I think this is probably bad for people who are hoping for really good housing prices. Someone, I think Carl continued tweeted this story.

And I had to lean on our guy Sean, our research analyst, who lives in Denver. I said, I'm not going to pay for a Denver post subscription. What do you got for me? And his grandma came through. And she had a grandma, Russo. What are people from Denver called? Are they Denverites?

That doesn't make sense. Denveronians? So the peak, they were saying the peak last year of a median single family home in Colorado was 600 grand, and it went all the way down to 520 in January. So 13% decline, that's pretty good. But by May, it was back up to 575. So even with rates going up, so now because mortgage rates are higher, the payments, as we've talked about, are way higher.

So even though you had that 13% decline, it lasted for, like, nothing. And there's 23% fewer homes sold. So there's fewer homes for sale, rates are higher, and the prices have basically round-tripped. So, like, if you were waiting to time the housing market, you had, like, two months to do it. We didn't speak about this, but last week I saw a few data points about home pricing, home prices being down in California. Fairly substantially. I don't think it was quite 10%, but, well, I guess it's not that substantial. In some areas, it might be that.

I'm in Manhattan Beach right now, which is spectacularly beautiful. And Chris and I were walking this morning past a realtor's office. You know, and they show you, like, pictures of houses that were sold. And I'll put this in the show notes. There's one that was sold for $4 million. And I guess you can't see the inside, but it just looks like a regular house. And absolutely right. An absolutely regular house.

Hey, Duncan just slacked us. Duncan just said, this is back in 2017 from CoinDesk. Fink said Bitcoin was, quote, an index of money laundering. I don't, I understand why crypto people, like, crypto natives are, like, mad about the hypocrisy. They're just in it for the money, whatever, whatever. But in Fink's defense, and I guess in others like it, what's wrong with changing your mind? And in his defense, in 2017, was, was crypto not? I mean, I know there was not everybody was money laundering, but it certainly certainly was

a lot of shady shit going on. Good point. That's the other thing that the rich and powerful thing we've talked about being contrarian. Like, it's okay to change your mind, right? Yeah, you can't change your mind, especially on a new asset, on a new, whatever we're calling it, technology asset class. Can't change your mind. Credit to us for not using John Maynard-Kane's quote here. But yes, it's okay to change your mind.

Credit to us. I'm talking about, okay. Last week or two weeks ago, we talked about how rents have finally started to fall, and that's a good thing for people renting and not buy, and who won't buy a house, but are staying put. This is Lizzie Ann Saunders, through May, number of multifference. family housing units. Remember, multifamily housing, that's apartments, right? Condus. Under construction rose again. It is now tied for the record set in 1973. This is one of the places where the biggest problem for residential housing is they're not building enough of them.

But multifamily housing, they've stepped up to the plate and they're building a ton more units. And that's one of the reasons that rents are falling is because they've stepped up to the plate and they're building more units for people now. This is a good thing for renters. Yes. Although, did you see, I saw a data point this morning. Manhattan rent hit an all-time high like it's over $4,000 on average I just boggles the mind I don't understand how people pay for it

yeah but on but what they do get out of that is they can put the trash right on the sidewalk so that makes up for it don't don't you dare I'll never understand that I don't know I don't know where else they can put it but the trash on the sidewalk thing like did they have a board meeting about this and be like

ah screw it just throw it on the sidewalk I know that there's no other good solution but that's always but that has never made sense to be a New York is that there's like that'd be my one platform as mayor I'm not going to allow

trash on the sidewalk anymore I'm going to clean it up somehow I don't know how but I'm going to do it there's going to be semis I don't know Lance Lambert tweeted they're talking about like

open door which it looks like they're just dumping homes at wild losses so I don't even get this they bought a home there's just a one-off

but this is where is this Arizona, in Gilbert, Arizona. They bought this house in January. Go ahead. I'm sorry? They bought this house in January. Wait, sorry, I'm interrupting you right now, but on last week's YouTube comments,

you got a lot of praise from the audience because they said Michael's not interrupting as much anymore. Tons of praise. Really? Yes, everyone said, great show this week, Michael, you didn't interrupt Ben as much as you usually do. Did you notice that? I didn't notice.

I'm just used to it, so. They bounce off me. Okay. They bought this house in January for $670,000. And then a month, not even a month later, three weeks later, they listed it for $5.86. And then they sold it for $5.82 in March. I don't understand. And this is not a one-off.

There's a whole thread of this. So can we put this to, will we see, will we see eye virus again? Was did the first iteration not work or is there a way to do this? I'm going to say, I'm going to say, I'm going to say, it can't be done. I think this is a 2020 idea. Like this idea sounded amazing in 2020 in the pandemic. And this was a $21 billion market cap. And it's, it's come up a little bit since the lows.

But it's still, it's still like $2 billion. I don't know. I just feel like this is just never going to work. Also bad timing. I wonder. How'd this been done in a normal market environment? Possibly. Yes, it was a really bad time for it.

But I just don't know if the real estate industry is disruptable or not. The FDIC accidentally posted an unredacted document showing that the big VC from Sequoia had, this from Wisenthaw, had $1 billion on deposit at SVB when it collapsed. Oof. So the VC guys who don't. Because Sequoia was, a lot of fingers were pointed at them for like being at the epicenter of causing the run. So the VC guys who don't trust the government data should be sending. a big thank you card for the bailout then, right? Fair? Yes. Okay. All right. Remed,

I didn't listen to this, but I just saw the article on Yahoo Finance. Here's the headline. A couple who retired early with $4.3 million is a fire lifestyle is wearing thin. Quote, we don't want to just keep throwing money on the pile and keep being cheap. We haven't spoken about fire in a while. I think it was like a big 2019 thing. But listen to this. I want to talk about for a sec. She and Carl recall the time when they were out to breakfast and their daughter bought the most expensive item on the menu for $20, resulting in a $99 bill with tip. Not a big dent to their millions, but something that amounted to a lot of financial anxiety for them nonetheless. Their attitude towards money is a byproduct of what Carl says is a scarcity mentality.

He developed growing up, as well as the years they spent saving to become financially independent. So anyway, the big thing here is just like, it just sounds so exhausting. And I'm learning that scarcity mentality. Like, fire, like being financially independent, forget about the fire movement is about freedom, right? Like the liberation of being tied to money. And that can mean a lot of things to different people. But with this, it becomes like the epicenter of your decision making.

It almost, not almost, it feels like it gives you a lot more anxiety than it gives you freedom. It also, like, if you get to that point where I'm going to hit this number and I can live off it, you're not automatically going to be able to change that scarcity mindset they talk about, trying to change that and turn it around is almost impossible. So you're just never going to enjoy it then. So what's the point of having? Just so you don't have to have a job, so you can say, I don't have a job and now I just blog full time. Well, great. But if you can't enjoy it, what's the point? Obviously, this doesn't go for everyone. I'm sure there

are people that retired early that are living their best life and are not crippled by financial anxiety. But I see this as a natural byproduct of this sort of mindset for most people. I think I think that would probably happen to most of us. I'm sure that there's a lot more regret with this than if you would have just balanced it a little bit more and enjoyed yourself a little now and still saved a lot. Like the fact that these people have high savings rate, that's a great thing. That should be applauded. But do you need a 70% savings rate so you can retire at age 35 as opposed to, well, why don't

we have a 30% savings rate, enjoy ourselves a little bit, entire at 50 or something, some sort of middle. There should be some sort of middle ground. That's where I've come down on this. Ben, just FYI, we've got a 15-minute warning. Okay. Oh, here's an interesting from Sam Rowe. I've gotten a ton of questions those people.

Like, what happens when the student loan moratorium is done and people have to start making payments again? Is that going to screw the economy over? This is from Morgan Stanley via Sam Rowe. So this is like the Michael Scott, Wayne Gretzky one, put Sam Rowe under Morgan Stanley. I still can't believe you still haven't seen it yet. Do you at least have to do it?

The office. It's just not my humor. I have seen an episode or two. Okay. It's the kind of, yeah, you kind of got to get used to the camera, I think. Here's something. Steve Corral, I hesitate to say I don't think he's funny because that's not fair. He doesn't tick on my funny bone for whatever reason.

I thought his character in Anchorman was incredibly unfunny, the only unfunny part of the movie. Brick Tamlin? You don't like Brick Tamlin? I hated it. Nothing about, I love Lamp, not funny. Just not even close to funny. For me, I know comedy subjective. Steve Crowell is not funny.

Is a hot take. No, no, no. I didn't say that. I said, he doesn't take on my funny bone, right? That's fair. You know, laughter is subjective. Although I did love a 40-year-old virgin that I did like. Okay.

We estimate the hit the disposable income from the end of student loan moratorium lowers PCE this year by 8 to 12 basis points and real GDP by 6 to 9 basis points. Basically a non-event. It's like a couple decimal points, right? There you go. All right. Great tweet from Bucco Capital. if you bought Netflix in 2018 because you thought they had one streaming, you would have been

right and you would have made no money. Netflix is flat over the last five years. Just incredible. And I really like we talk about this all the time. Right. That is. That's incredible, especially since. Oh, the thesis, the thesis played out. They won. How much, how much money has streaming lost entertainment companies? Billions and billions and billions of dollars. Like in stock price, market market market gains, right? Disney is a great example of the stock market. This is a great example the stock market gaslighting companies, not even companies, right? Investors love the idea of the recurring revenue model, growth, companies saw Netflix. You want Netflix as multiple. Give us Netflix as multiple. Oh, sorry, you're not getting it. Be careful, be careful what you wish for.

Oh, God. I see this question in here. This is, from a guy who has no pet peeves, this is the question I'm reading the doc. Can you ask an Uber driver to lower the music? Well, yesterday I got picked, I got, I got a ride to the airport from Syed and I had my AirPods in as I normally do and he's playing his his country's music. I don't know what country was from, but I'd say it was I enjoyed the music. However,

it was loud. Like I came in, I almost couldn't hear my podcast because it was that loud. Did you ask? I did not. I did not. I chickened out. Although, credit to Syed, he saw me dozing off. My eyes started to close and then he lowered the music.

But what do you do if you get into an Uber and the music's just at an, at an, at an inappropriately high level. I'm from the Midwest. I bite my tongue and don't say anything. I think it's more annoying when they're just on speakerphone the whole time. Like put in your AirPods and talk on like a normal person, not like a boomer, right? Real quick. This has happened multiple times with me.

And I don't like it. I don't know what to do about it. I think the answer is I can't do something I can do. So the kids wanted to have smores the other night. So put some firewood in the fire pit, lit it, made smores, and come inside, and Robin's like, don't get mad. I'm like, what? Our neighbor texted Robin and asked us to put out the fire because their kids were coughing, which I'm sorry. I just don't believe that.

That's like one of the greatest summer smells in the world, too, like a burning fire? It's not every time I light a fire, but they've asked me. me multiple times to put it out. And I'm not like a confrontational guy like that. I'm not going to be like, do something about it. That's not my personality. But it is wearing a bit thin. That's a big ask. Put your fire out. Seriously? I mean, if you were like burning piles of leaves in your backyard, sure, I can see saying something, but a fire pit. And they're, we don't have a relationship with them, but they're nice enough people. But this is starting to irk me. I feel like I'm, I'm going to get pushed too far. That's a lot. That's a big ask. All right, what do you got for

recommendations. Okay. Um, I was watching Indiana Jones with the boys, just the first scene of Raiders. God, what a, what a banger. Um, and I was listening to Indiana Jones. I love Indiana Jones so much. Indiana Jones, the rewatchable was in the last crusade. I don't think I've seen the movie in 25 years. Last crusade. I put it on again, too. It was, it's on, all of them are on Disney. I put it on again. I had to watch it again. How is it? Holds up. I'm sure it does. I love it. Sean Connor. Yeah, Harrison Ford is. Yeah. I mean, they still have the Indiana Jones show at, which one is it in Florida? Disney World.

So we saw it. We saw it. So I don't know why they, they were talking about something of the rewatchels. I don't know why they didn't make more of these. It feels like it could have, they could have done eight of them. Here's where they were wrong, though. The second one is good. I don't know why the people on the rewatcher.

Temple of Doom. That's great. I love Temple of Doom. I love that movie. So I think, I think Indiana Jones, not, my goodness. I think Harrison Ford, for my money, is the most charismatic on-screen actor I've ever seen. As Indiana Jones, I think so. No, no, no, just, just Harrison Ford.

Himself, yes. He has, like, the most, he just seems like a confident person. I mean, between Hansel and Indiana Jones, it doesn't get more iconic. I was thinking about Black Mirror, because you and I were talking about, I was like, huh, why did I not see those seasons? And then I realized I did see the seasons, not all of them. But as I'm watching this, like, there were seasons that had, like, three episodes. I'm not a guy, like, I couldn't read a fiction book of short stories.

I need a long, so the fact that Black Mirror is, like, a one episode thing, and that's it. I watched the first season, I'm like, ah, it's pretty interesting. It's creative, but that's why I don't, I never went back. I get that. Personal preference. So there's a lot of cameos in the season,

Josh Hartnett, for example, who haven't seen in decades. Rob Delaney. Samaheach. So the first episode of the new season is excellent. And I was thinking about, actually, I was listening to the Prestige TV podcast, and they were talking about,

my favorite episode was called the entire history of you. You ever see that one? It's the guy that, like, has, like, a chip in his eye and he's able to rewind his memories. Maybe. It's a while ago. Okay. I highly have recommend you watching it if you haven't. It's one of the best episodes of TV I've ever seen.

And they were talking about it. Jesse Armstrong of Succession wrote that episode. Oh, wow. Love that guy. He's got a – apparently he's like an old British show that people keep telling me that I should watch. Do you know what it is? I don't know. Okay.

Last thing. Um, this – I caught like 20 minutes of a movie that, that I probably saw it twice when I first saw it. Like I saw it. It was so good. I rewatched it again. And I haven't seen it since then, which, what does this movie come out? The City of God is.

I love that movie. I don't know what my top 10 list is. But if I had to, I would guess if I took the time, this would be my top 20. Oh, 2002. Wow, 20 years ago. So this is one of those movies that, I mean, use critics' words. It's visceral. It's gripping.

It sticks to the bones. I feel like this movie packs a gigantic wallet, but it's not super rewatchable just because it's so strong and depressing and definitely one of my favorite movies of all time. This is also the kind of movie that never gets made again. This would be like a series now or a Netflix show. They don't make this kind of movie. We sailed through the show Love and Death on HBO Max.

it's Elizabeth Olson, who is like the Olson twins sister. She was the Wanda Vision one. She was fantastic in this. So this is a true story. And I, this is a true story one, and I knew, like, there's affairs and someone dies. That's all I knew. I went totally clean slate. I'd never heard of this story before, but it happened in 1980 in Texas where there was

a fair. True story. Someone got killed. And I read up on the actual story, and it sounds like the show was pretty, stayed pretty close to the actual, like, events. And I read a bunch on this. And it's the kind of show where you leave and you go, I don't know how to feel about this. But it was so well-acted. Landry from Friday Night Lights was on it.

I know you're and Buddy Garrity from Friday Night Lights. I know you're another Friday Night Lights person. And the brother, Laurelini's brother from Ozark was on it. He was great in it and just really well-acted. And just it's a crazy. It's just a, the story is, it's like one of those truth-estrange and fiction kind of things. So it's a recommend? Yes.

I would watch it and just don't read anything about it beforehand. And you just, you know, something is going to happen. You don't know what it is. And it was, it was very good. Seven episodes, that's it. I forgot one. I saw this movie. Robin watched some of it with me.

She doesn't really get scared, but she was scared by this. A movie called The Host. It was made during the pandemic. And it's a cross between, oh, yeah, I think it's 2020. Every horror movie is now a cross between this and this and this. No. Listen. Is there any original horror movies anymore?

Come on. the host it was very original it's it's five four friends on zoom and they they my eyes just rolled back in the back of my head okay keep going so they they have like a uh uh the word i'm looking for i'm gonna this is not the right word a seer a seance a say what's that thing the person that can like speak to the spirits yeah seance is it a seance is that right anyhow who uh they do that as a goof And it is frightening. So it's a cross between Blair Witch with like the self-camera type stuff and paranormal activity.

And it was excellent. Excellent, excellent. No bullshit. I'm not joking. If you like horror movies, this is a strong, strong, strong recommendation. Eight thumbs up. Super duper scary. Okay.

That doesn't sound original, but sure. But Duncan's in my mention is saying that Steve Carell is. on The Office is the funniest overall character in the history of TV. Now, listen, you have to... He's in the top 10, for sure. You have to punctuate that with, in my opinion. Obviously, right?

These are all opinions, but I feel like, with comedy especially, it's very subjective. And I know Duncan has seen every show in the history of TV, so... But for some reason, you have a gaping hole and you've never seen Seinfeld or the Office, so you, like, haven't seen any of the... Those are two of the greatest TV comedies in history.

Hang on, I write it, no, I write it the Seinfeld wrong. I saw like five, five seasons. Okay, you'd watch some Seinfeld. Yeah. All right. I'm sorry, I'm not saying Steve Carell's not funny. I'm just saying it doesn't make me laugh. Fine, you know what, fine.

It's dry humor. But the thing is, you have to watch at least a first season. And you can, they're like 22-minute episodes. Okay. All right. Give it a try. Animal Spiritspod at gmail.com. And I'm sure next week we'll have some.

Stories from Michael's trip back from L.A. to New York. You can give us a comparison of L.A.L.A.L.A.X. What a horrible airport. My God. My God. Makes J.F.K. look good. Are there any good airports, though? Like, has anyone ever gone to an airport and go, that airport's awesome. All airports are terrible equally. No, when we were actually, when we were at the Tampa Airport, we were saying, lovely airport. Every airport outside of New York is great. I would say, now I'm going to say outside of New York and Los Angeles. Okay. All right. See you next week.

Thank you.