Asmongold TV - Piracy is back | Asmongold TV

Episode Date: June 29, 2025

Piracy is back Asmongold show for all of his stream highlights, competitions, reactions & more. -------------- ------ Keywords: twitch streamer, esports commentary, streaming highlights, gaming commentary, twitch clips, video game analysis, gaming content creator, gaming news Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

So piracy is coming back. I think the reason why this is happening is the old quote from Gavin. Piracy is a service problem. The reason why piracy went down is because there were services like Netflix, for example, that acted as a market replacement for piracy. And the amount of money that you had to spend was minimal enough to where you could get the value out of it. And instead of spending the extra time and the potential risk with piracy, you could just simply access to shows easily.

I think Spotify is the best example that a lot of us use now. How many of you guys had Limelier and now you have Spotify? I know I did. So Spotify is an example of this happening and working in an effective way. But the problem is that with TV shows and movies, there are too many mouths to feed, and now people are going back to piracy. That's what my opinion is.

I'll watch the video and see what they say. The 2010s were the golden age of piracy. Oh, yeah. BitTorrent accounted for a third of all internet traffic. LimeWire had more monthly users than Facebook, and the Pirate Bay was the only video store in town where you were sure to find what you were looking for. You get that 1080P release a day before it comes out on theaters. Technically, of course. The world was slowly switching from physical to digital media.

And even people who weren't particularly tech savvy realized that digital goods could be replaced endlessly with practically zero marginal cost. At its peak, 95% of all music downloads were pirated because it had become cheap. and above all else, an easier way to fill up large digital libraries that were being made possible by cheap digital storage. But then it just stopped. Since 2012, the internet has gotten faster, storage has gotten cheaper, and people have become more comfortable with computers, which should have just accelerated a growth trend. But it didn't.

Since 2015, peer-to-peer file sharing has collapsed in popularity. And you might think you already know why. Streaming services like Spotify and Netflix were just a better, easier, and safer way to access content. That's one reason. And now as the services have become markedly worse and simultaneously more expensive, piracy is making a comeback. It seems... Yeah, that's the reason. Pretty simple, right? The only problem is, that's not the whole story. Realistically, these companies knew this day would come. It was just really important that they could pretend it wouldn't. It's too hard for normies. Yeah, I think that also them like shutting down and then re-rehosting Pirate Bay over and

over hurt piracy a lot because and also lime wire it's kind of like if you cut off the head of the snake you're going to remove a lot of people's access to piracy because like there are these websites that everybody would use and everybody would know and just by the nature of how torrenting websites work than seating and you know like all of that the more people use a site the better the site is so whenever you cut off a few of the heads and then people went to a bunch of different sites, I think that made piracy less accessible for the lowest common denominator of internet user. I think that was another effect that it had. For a lot of people, they've decided it's time to cut back. But legitimately, it might be time to cancel some subscriptions, and I'm probably

going to have to cancel some. Some of them I'm not using, and it's just wasting money. There's so many of these. It's hard to keep track. At that point, that's an adversarial relationship. I don't want to pay people to enter adversarial relationship. That's right. As I said, for this business to be a growth business for the company with margins that our shareholders will feel good about. Well, that didn't happen. Really made piracy go away, and what's really bringing it back might sound simple.

But there's actually a bit more going on. Service. First and foremost, the majority of people actually would like to acquire their media legally as long as it was easy and not ridiculously expensive. People want to have the media legally because it makes it easier to transfer and to use. And also there's risks with piracy. Like, for example, you download something and it could have a virus in it or something like that. Or obviously you could get caught, but like realistically, it's probably a virus.

So, and again, these are 1% probabilities. But like if you had a bag of M&Ms and one M&M was poison, would you want to eat a bag of M&Ms? No, you wouldn't, right? You'd want to have another bag, even if the other bag was like way, way more expensive. reasonable people understand that it costs time and money to produce a song, film a movie, or develop a video game. And the people involved in these projects do need to be compensated or else they are just not going to make them. Even people who frequent the high seas, so to speak, know this better than anybody else. A survey coming out of Australia at the peak of online piracy found that people who pirated content were actually more likely to pay for it if it was available.

In a finding that really ages this study, online pirates... Interest and content would imply interest in content. If people are willing to steal something, they're also probably part of the target audience automatically because they wouldn't be stealing it if they weren't part of the audience. I mean, it's one of those things where it's like common sense, but like stating it kind of helps put things into perspective. We're far more likely to pay for movies and music through iTunes or Quick Fix.

This was because people who pirated content were just more likely to consume content overall, and most of them would only make the trip to the bay if they couldn't find what they were looking for more legitimately. Yeah. So there were two things that changed after 2013. Sure, there were a few high-profile crackdowns on some of these sites, but even the regulators themselves knew they were just playing a game of Wackamol. One of the most downloaded files on the Pirate Bay was the Pirate Bay,

a complete copy of this site with all of the addresses that could be set up by basically anybody with some basic server hardware in the event that the authorities took down the original site. Yep. But then came along the streaming sites that, thanks to faster internet speeds, could let users watch content on demand without granting them direct to actual. access to digital files which could then be copied and shared illegally. The big thing. And the fact is that like Netflix is a better service than using Pirate Bay.

It is. It's a better service. You get a higher quality product on average. There's no watermarks. There's a lot. Like it's a better service. It's the same as Spotify. Spotify is a better service than Pirate Bay was.

I don't know. Like I mean, so you like you're right in terms of the breadth of content. but I don't think that you're right in terms of the quality of the individual content. It was that these options were just so easy compared to piracy and so cheap compared to buying songs or movies one by one that it just didn't really make sense to bother with anything else. Nowadays, that's clearly changed.

There are dozens of streaming services that are each getting more and more expensive every year. The movies and shows that you watch are being... This is crazy. This is insane. This is like we've gone full circle and now we're all the way back to K. cable. Quality is worse. Well, again, like, so quality, you're thinking about quality in terms of video quality. I'm thinking about quality in terms of aggregation. I'm thinking about quality in

terms of being able to give recommendations. I'm thinking about quality in terms of usability, quality in terms of finding files. All of these things, and again, guys, I understand a lot of, everybody, almost everybody in here, like, we're all internet, Andes, right? Like, we're on the internet all the time. We're talking on the internet constantly, doing stuff constantly. I think that you really downplay the value that an average person gets out of having a self-contained system. You really, really downplay it. And I think Apple, you know, Steve Jobs understood that. That's why he was such a great visionary. And that's why the iPod was so successful. And it blew everything else out of the water. Its usability is something that is actually

a massive accessibility issue, and it cuts out so many people that you just never even see. It's about convenience, yeah. Split up over different providers, the services themselves are getting worse by introducing ads and pushing less relevant content. And on top of all of that, it's just not that easy anymore. Even individual TV shows have certain seasons split up over different streaming services, and the first step in sitting down. Wait, what?

The same show is on multiple streaming services with different seasons? Is this true? Oh my God. To watch a movie these days is to Google, What a scam. That's insane. I've never heard of that. Has the 1984 release of Gremlins, and if you're unlucky,

what streaming service plus what VPN combo will get you the movie you want to watch. If you're already going through all that effort, it gets really tempting to just replace streaming services with your port of choice, because in most cases, it will just be easier. Yeah. So yeah, streaming services were cheap and easy,

which killed the need for piracy. But then, they slowly became expensive and terrible, which brought it back. Pretty straightforward, right? Exactly. Wrong. It's easy to write this whole thing off as just dumb companies

being needlessly greedy to their own peril. And while that's definitely part of the problem, there is a lot more to it than that. What is it? Music streaming by comparison is decent. There are multiple services, but almost all of them have almost all of the music that you would possibly be looking for.

And also you can import your own music as well. Result, nobody really bothers to pirate songs anymore. That's right. Which is particularly impressive when you remember that just 15 years ago, 95% of music was being downloaded illegally. Artists have not been thrilled about the lower revenue they have got from streaming versus physical album sales.

But most of them still go along with it because even a small share of something is better than most of their music being accessed for free. Yeah, the thing is that, like, people are going, you either give it out for a price that people want to pay or it gets stolen because they can't enforce it. That's the issue. Is that, like, it's unethical to steal things,

but nobody cares. if you can steal it and get away with it. That's just the truth. It raises a potentially unpopular idea, that it might not be streaming that's broken. It might be the movie industry that's broken. The golden age of streaming was never going to last because it was never meant to last.

So it's time to learn how many works to find out why piracy is really making up. Okay, let's find out. This video was made possible by iScanner. What's this? I was sorting through some older seats for tax season, trying to remember which ones I still needed to file. And of course, one of the important ones had coffee stains all over it.

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That's cool. And make your paperwork just a little less painful. I don't even use paperwork. Netflix is the most dominant movie and TV streaming service in the world. Yeah, no surprise. It has over 300 million paying subscribers. And unlike a lot of its competitors, it's actually profitable. Oh, it's actually making money now?

I thought it was losing money still. But from its very first days of online streaming, they knew they would eventually lose people back to piracy. They just really didn't care. And to see why, I'm sorry, but you were going to have to look at some financials. Last year, it made $8.7 billion in net income after taxes, which is extremely impressive. But it still makes it hard to justify the valuation. 8.7 billion. Did it say billion or million?

Wait, it only made $8 million, but the enterprise value is half a trillion? Who the fuck decided that? An elf? Oh, after 10,000 years, it's going to be worth it. Oh, billion? But that's million. After taxes, I have to look at some financials. Last year, it made $8.7 billion in net income after...

Okay, well, I guess he just said the wrong number. Taxes, which is extremely impressive. But it still makes it hard to justify the valuation of more than half a trillion dollars. I mean, I don't know. Like, usually a company's valuation, like, especially if it's not like, an intellectual property company. Like, Netflix does its own shows. So, like, even with intellectual property, like, you're really looking at, like, a 7 to 15x multiplier from everything that I know about venture capital, period. And, like, even 7 is the ceiling. And 15 would have to be,

like, some sort of, like, weird AI thing that, like, nobody's ever thought about. So, I mean, $540 is insane. At that rate, shareholders would need 57 years for their investment to pay off, which is not a reasonable bet for a company in an industry that has only been dominant for a decade. 57 years ago, watching a movie looked like this. And in another 57 years short, it's crazy unlikely that we will still be watching movies through the current selection of streaming services. Now, most investors in this company aren't dumb. They know that Netflix can't make their money back with its current structure. What they are banking on is being able to offer a cheaper service that can charge more for in order to fatten up those margins.

Let's not talk about my margins, by the way. being nice and fat. That's a nice shirt. Do they make it for men? Anyway, cutting content, raising prices, and pushing strange features like mobile games within the app are not some surprise new rollout. They are part of a development. It's the ads. I think the ads are what's really going to push people away from using apps. Because like people can't, like the reason why people went to piracy in the first place is because of accessibility. You could only watch a TV show at 8 p.m. And also because there were a million commercials in it.

My plan that the company knew would have to implement since it started offering online streaming. It would just be a lot better if they could do it without competition. Now, on the expenses side, there is some good news. As technology improves, network infrastructure has become cheaper for the same capacity, which means the actual cost to stream videos to users is getting better every year. Netflix's cost of revenue adjusted for inflation has actually been stable since 2022, despite adding almost 100 million new users in that time. Included in those costs are the...

Wait, so their revenue stays. is the same but they keep adding users. I don't think that's a good thing. That sounds like a bad thing. For mentioned servers and network infrastructure, but it also includes the cost to license and produce their own movies, TV shows, and games.

Another big reason their costs have been improving is because they just aren't licensing as much content as they used to, and that's for two reasons. The first was a business decision to cut down on a cost, especially for content that wasn't drawing in new users. The second reason is simply because

they can't get their hands on as many titles anymore, because independent studios have made their own streaming services and want to keep their biggest IPs exclusive. This is the big reason is that like there are just too many other services and you don't have a one-stop shop. Spotify is a one-stop shop. Netflix isn't anymore and it's not even close. Force users to either switch to their platform or shell out for two or more streaming services. Netflix is slowly producing its own titles, but that hasn't caught up to the content. they are losing from licensing.

So then Netflix also has a Netflix has a massive weakness that they don't have every IP they have to source themselves. Like Disney has its own endemic IPs like Snow White or something like that.

That you know maybe they can make something really bad but it's a known IP that everybody understands. Netflix like One Piece was a massive success. My dad watched this. He loved it. He thought this show was amazing. So, like, I mean, it was a big success. And even the Devil May Cry show, I think, did pretty well, right?

But overall, Netflix has made good shows, but they have to source these shows themselves. And so they have to pay for licensing, et cetera, whereas, like, Paramount or HBO, they might have the IP for this to begin with, especially this is true with Disney. Like, think about the advantage that Disney has whenever they already own the entire catalog of Marvel movies. That's like such a massive baseline advantage. Does this mean that Netflix doesn't care about piracy? Well, publicly, they say they do, of course, but piracy is going to hurt their competition a lot more than it's going to hurt them. If people can't find a movie or show on Netflix and then give up and pirate it,

that didn't really cost Netflix any money, because the vast majority of content out there... I requested one of the doctors to call me. I don't count my chickens before they hatch. you know, I'll feel better whenever he's at home, but things are looking good. Let's get back to it. ...a lot more than it's going to hurt them. If people can't find a movie or show on Netflix and then give up and pirate it,

that didn't really cost Netflix any money, because the vast majority of content out there wasn't theirs to lose, and they most likely didn't spend the money producing it. A 2023 paper in the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, titled Pirate and Chill, found that when movies moved off Netflix to another platform, piracy of that content increased by more than 20%. Now, Netflix has such a massive first mover advantage. They're basically like the Twitch of like streaming platforms,

is that while other streaming platforms exist and they're successful, they don't have the same brand recognition and name recognition that Netflix does. Like everybody knows what Netflix is. So I think that's another really big reason why this happens to. First and foremost, that's an amazing name for a professional journal article. But apart from that, it showed why Netflix hasn't been too concerned with online piracy. In a now infamous quote from the company's chief content officer, they said that in order for Netflix to be successful,

we need to become movie studios faster than movie studios can become us. Piracy that disproportionately hurt legacy movie studios in their libraries of content was not something that Netflix would encourage. But behind closed doors, they certainly weren't too sad it was happening. Another way to think about this is that obviously Amazon, isn't encouraging shoplifting. But it's a problem that hurts their competition far more than it hurts them. LAPOV, I guess.

I mean, they're right. You know, yeah, obviously people like, what Netflix is saying is that they have a lot of, like, smaller shows that don't have, like, a huge amount of, like, they're not super well-known shows. So they're going to be less people pirating them. Piracy has also been a handy little tool throughout the company's history. Back in 2013, it admitted to using data from online piracy, to find out what was popular and therefore what was...

Hey, hey, you could say this is unethical, but you can't say it's not going to be effective. That's a really good fucking idea. Yep, figure out what kind of shit people steal and then don't sell that. It's worth licensing. Okay, so Netflix doesn't care about the rise of piracy, but what about the actual Hollywood studios? Well, they obviously do,

and they crack down on IP theft with furious anger, but they are in a difficult situation. They could send piracy back to the Dark Ages by re-concentrating their content onto a single easy platform. But at the moment, that would probably... They can't because then you're just going to have people that are going to be putting up the files somewhere else. Like, it's always a game of whack-a-mole.

And the more difficult that you make it for people to, like, consume the content, the more people will just simply take the easier route. I think that people will pay for the content if they can, but if it's annoying for them to pay for it, they'll just steal it. Be Netflix, which a company like Disney would obviously not be willing to go along with after investing so much in their own service. If they keep competing, though, they are just going to make the experience worse for everybody and probably lose more ground to the high seas.

Now, for these companies, this whole fight could not be happening at a worse time. There is a reason why music studios were able to play nice and make their content available just about anywhere while movie studios were fighting to the death. music is simply much cheaper to produce, and there are far more sources of alternative revenue beyond just directly selling a song or an album. Artists don't make as much... You're a good point, too.

Yeah, you're right about that. Like, having, like, other types of licensing, etc. And, like, this is something that, like, remember Matt Damon talked about this? Is that movies used to have, like, DVD sales that they could really pop off with. So, like, if a movie, like, a good example of this, I think is... I would say, like, maybe Dread.

Like, so they made a Judge Dreadn. movie in like 2012 or so and if i remember right the like a box office wasn't very good but it did really well with DVD sales and so yeah grandma's boy was probably another one yeah there's a lot of these examples right where like it sold a lot of DVDs but like its initial like box office was kind of low and uh yeah by blu-rays yeah a good ass movie cult classic yeah idiocracy was a huge one that sold well on DVD yeah that's a great example idiocracy is probably a better example than what i'm talking about And so now you don't have that second ripple explosion wave effect. And I think that's also another reason why movies have to try even harder to monetize.

And I think that's why you see less avant-garde risky movies. And the only time that you see a movie that takes a lot of risks is when it's a director or it has a cast that's like, you know, guaranteed to secure a certain amount of money in sales. From streaming as it would from a physical album sales. I watched it on DVD, yeah. But they can make it up tours, merchandising, and other licensing deals. On the flip side, movies have largely been getting more expensive to produce, while cinema attendance has never fully recovered from its dip during COVID.

Ironically, one of the biggest theater releases of the past five years was actually for... Infinity War, right? It's got to be Infinity War. From music studio with the cinema release of Taylor Swift's Erez Tour. Oh, God, somebody's going to stop these white girls. Jesus Christ. Oh, God. Man, that shit was huge.

How'd this happen? In the past, poor box offices wouldn't matter as much, because mid-budget movies could make a lot of their money back through DVD sales. Hey! But obviously, that's not really a thing anymore. Yeah. So studios have put even more effort into pushing their streaming services to eventually make back the difference. Yep. It's a bold strategy, and there are hundreds of billions of dollars in market cap at stake.

So executives really want to pretend that eventually it'll work out. But if it doesn't, there are some lessons to be learned from the music industry, which didn't beat piracy. It just made it unnecessary. The first is that movies have simply become too expensive for the current market. And this is another big issue to... This is another big issue is that like video games are running into the same problem that movies and TV shows are running into is that as production costs increase, they're increasing at a ratio and at a rate that doesn't match the... amount of money that people are willing to spend.

So whenever you have these video games that are costing $800 million to make, well, are you really getting $800 million of value? Well, in a lot of cases, the answer is no. So the problem is that these movies now are costing so much money. Like maybe you need to rethink how you're making movies. You need to rethink how you're approaching this. And like also, you know, like Robert Downey Jr. got paid like, what, $80 million or something like that to play Doctor Doom, that's just not a sustainable business model.

It's just not. You can't spend that much money on movie stars and then think that you're going to make your money back. And also, like, I'm not, like, I love Robert Downing Jr. I think he's a great actor. He's amazing. But it's just, this isn't a, this is not a good business decision. That's all. It's just not a good business decision.

And you can't make your fucking money back. Yeah, paving away for AI videos. Well, that's what's going to happen a lot. Check the Rock salaries. I bet he makes a ton of... Absolutely. It's unbalanced. Yeah, it's a broken system.

100% of this. They're definitely getting that value. They're not corrupted by ideologist directors. I don't know. I feel like there's a lot of movies. Like, here's another really good one. The Thunderbolts recently. I think that's a movie that, you know,

a lot of people said was surprisingly very high quality and it was a good movie. I didn't watch it, so I'm only speaking in second. hand, but the box office sales for the movie were below average. That was my, it's sucked ass. Well, I don't know. Like, I mean, I, I, maybe best movies since endgame. Yeah. So a lot of people that still bombed. Yeah, exactly. Seems like you guys are a little bit more split on it than what I've seen popular opinion be. Okay, that's fair. But either way, a lot of these movies, like, they just don't really sell very well. And I think they're investing too much money into these movies in general. And I think also,

You know, like you go back and you think about a lot of the older movies like, oh, fuck. Like just goodwill hunting, for example, right? Like how much production value did you really need in that? You didn't need a huge insane amount of production value. And I think that movies now, like you don't have to have Michael Bay explosions and all of this crazy stuff happening. Yeah, that's another great example. Bro, clerks. They couldn't even afford color fucking cameras.

It's in black and fucking white. And they just went and made a movie and it was massively fucking successful. And so again, I think also they need to rethink the amount of money that they're spending on these movies. And you can go back Memento by Nolan. I remember watching that movie making class, but I don't remember even like that entire class I spent simping for this girl. It didn't work. I, fuck. Anyway, so.

That's, yeah, so I did not even pay attention to that movie at all. And, yeah, let's see here. Money makes it there. Yeah, exactly, right? Paranormal Activity 1. Yeah, and there's plenty of examples of this. Napoleon Dynamite, another great example. So they need to rethink how much money they're spending on movies

in the same way that developers for video games need to rethink how much money they're spending on games. If you're investing this much money into something, you can't afford for it to lose. and you can't live, like, whenever you're dealing with entertainment products, you can't deal in absolutes. You can never guarantee something is going to be a success like this. That people are only going to the movies for special occasion releases these days because it's expensive.

The theater experience isn't that good anymore, and people can just wait a month and watch it for free on one of the streaming services that they were already paying for. And it's also a lot of the movies now are coming out on streaming services at the exact same time that they're coming out in movie theaters and so it's even more the case

I'm trying to think like what movie like that's coming out would I want to watch in movie theaters I can't even think of anything I'm trying to think the last one like I mean I would have wanted

to watch Infinity War in movie theaters like maybe Superman I don't I don't really care about Superman 28 years later Yeah, maybe, maybe that. Like, I remember I watched 28 weeks later in movie theaters like 2009 or whenever it came out. So, like, maybe that.

I don't know. I'd really have to think about it. Gladiator 2? No, I didn't like, two, like, no, I didn't need to be that way. And Dune, yeah, I guess, okay, you're right. All right. So if they make part three of Dune, I'd probably watch that in movie theaters. That would be the next one.

Instead of making the whole thing cheaper and putting less of their eggs in a single basket, they have doubled down on producing mega blockbusters. Of the 20 most expensive movies ever made, 19 of them came out in the last 10 years after streaming was already mainstream. These figures also only count the production budget, not the marketing budget. And on the revenue side, the box office doesn't make...

And by the way, marketing budget for these is sometimes like hundreds of millions of dollars. It's not like marketing is small. It's a huge component. Include the share paid out to movie theaters. With even extremely generous estimates of those arrangements, only about half of these releases made their money back.

And some in particular, like the Marvel's Snow White, Dial of Destiny, and the latest Mission Impossible movie are shaping up to be catastrophic losses. So far, studios have been able to justify these flagship productions to their investors by talking about their IP value, which can later be extracted by bringing in customers... Yeah, Iron Heart, bro, like, how's that going? Not so good, huh?

So the streaming platforms. But that isn't really happening. Customers who joined because they want to watch a single movie didn't tend to stay subscribed for very long compared to those who enjoy a deeper library of mid-budget movies or TV shows. I don't know about you, but I tend to take my subscription

to whatever streaming service is hosting the office this month. These huge productions also put more strain on the business, as these losses have to be made up somewhere. I've always, like, I just have a subscription to, I have, like, crunchy roll, and, oh, I got Netflix,

and that's about it. Like, I don't really have a lot of these. More often than not increase prices, more ads, and worse overall service. Yeah, if it's not on there, I just don't want to. Now, I would forgive you for not feeling too sorry for Hollywood Studio executives. But they are really in a no-win situation here. The harder they push back against the changing media landscape, the harder they push people towards the high seas. Yep.

So anyway, now might be a good time to shamelessly plug that these videos are being made available ad-free on Spotify. So if you would prefer to listen in or watch it over there, I have left a link in the description. Yeah, Spotify is doing what they need to, what movies need to do. Because Spotify, Spotify is like Steam. It prioritizes the user experience. And when you prioritize the user experience, you control the market. The moment that you start making content and developing your commercial product for the best

interest of the people that are making money off of it is the moment that your commercial product begins to begins to fail because you've lost connection with your actual your actual audience here. If you think it's just streaming services that have been getting so bad, go and watch this video next to find out why making

junk makes so much money. And don't forget to like and subscribe to keep on learning how money works. Well, I think that was a really good video. I think he gave some pretty good insight on it, especially with some of those graphs. I didn't really, I wasn't familiar with some of that, too. And so I'm glad to see this. I'll link you

the video make sure to give it a like how money works and uh i've watched these videos before i don't know why i haven't seen it but it's one of those things where like i think that we all know this is one of those realities right we all know this is like the reason but it's good to actually see it