Astrum Space - The Most Dangerous Part of the Moons Orbit Is Coming in the 2030s

Episode Date: May 21, 2024

Join with me today as we learn about the innocently named Lunar Nodal Cycle and why we need to start developing a much better understanding of the fluctuating behaviour of our Moon if we are to protect ourselves against its dangers.

The Moon. Earth's natural satellite, orbiting approximately 384,000 kilometers away. A celestial object that scientists have studied for thousands of years, using its regular motions to mark the passage of time in calendars. Its dependable rhythms helped ancient civilizations to track when to plant crops, and its waxing and waning faces cemented the moon's place deep in the heart of simeable. symbol and tradition. It's a wonder, a necessity, and a curse. While the moon's desolate beauty has captured the vision of poets, it also brings desolation.

There is one lunar rhythm that is not helpful to us, a 19-year cycle that brings unexpected floods and ruin. And NASA scientists are worried that in the middle of the 2030s is about to hit its hardest yet. For ecosystems that are adapted, to it in the right way, this won't be a problem. But how adapted are we? I'm Alex McColgan and you're listening to the Astroom Podcast. Join with me today as we learn about the innocently named Lunar Nodal Cycle and why we need to start developing a much better understanding of the fluctuating behaviour of our Moon if we are to protect ourselves against its dangers. Much like the Sun, the Moon is an inescapable part of life on Earth,

The moon has an immense impact on our planet. You likely have already heard how its cycles influence our wildlife, affect our climate, and create tides. We tend to imagine that the moon and the Earth's gravities cause them to circle each other in a relatively stable, synchronized harmony. But as is so often the case, nature is not as simple as we imagine it. Instead, every 18.6 years, the Moon's orbit undergoes a subtle revolution, a shift in its alignment between us and our sun that causes high tides to grow even higher, tipping us over the edge

into dangerous flood territory. But let's delve into what this subtle revolution is. Its name is the Lunar Nodal Cycle or the Procession of Lunar Nodes. This complex name refers to a specific feature of the Moon's Outs. orbit of the Earth, you likely know that every 29.5 days, the Moon orbits the Earth. However, this orbit is not flat. Or, to be more specific, there is a 5 degree difference between the angle of the Moon's orbit and the Ecliptic plane, the 2D plane on which the Earth orbits around the Sun.

For half of the month, the Moon is slightly higher than the plane of the Ecliptic. For the other half, it drops below it. Naturally, this means that there are two crossover points, or two nodes, an ascending node and a descending node, that mark the point where the moon goes from one side over to the other. And it is these nodes that move over the course of the 18.6 year cycle, slowly rotating around the planet in one complete revolution. The nodes themselves are what causes the problem.

And understand why, let's recap what we know about tides. You may already be familiar with how the moon's gravity pulls the Earth's water towards it, causing a bulge in sea levels on the side closest to it that we call high tide. You likely also know that this happens on the side of the planet furthest away from the moon. Rather than being caused by gravity, this second bulge is caused by centrifugal forces, as the Earth and the moon's gravitational pull on each other causes them to behave like two dancers holding each other by the arms and spinning across the dance floor. While it's mostly the moon moving, due to the Earth being much more massive, the Earth

is also swung around a little. The water behind it is thus trying to fling off into space through its raucous spinning, causing the second high tide. The Sun also has a role to play in tide formation, albeit to a lesser degree. It's a bigger mass, which would cause a greater pull if it were closer, but its further distance means that the sun's effect is only one-third as big as the moon. When the moon and the sun are aligned, we get extra large tides called spring tides. This happens six to eight times a year.

When not aligned, they partially cancel each other out, causing smaller tidal extremes known as neep tides. So, now consider the influence of lunar nodes on this tidal tug of war. During spring tides, the pole of the sun and the moon working in unison causes the highest tides and the largest risk of floods. However, the sun and the moon are never more aligned than they are at a node. During the rest of each 9.3 year phase, they are not quite tugging in the same direction, so tides are more temperate.

a node, that's where things get more serious, and risk of floods become highest. The last time this alignment occurred in September 2015, the UK and the US both issued major flood warnings to its citizens. In September itself, there were floods, albeit minor ones, but it was only when heavy rain combined with the strength of the lunar nodes a couple of months later that the real damage was inflicted. In the US, in October, South Carolina saw flash flooding that caused property damage and people having to be rescued by emergency services.

At the end of December 2015, the UK was hit by some of the worst floods it had seen in a century. Combined with the power of Storm Desmond, flooding and storm damage caused an estimated 1.3 billion pounds in damages. These floods can be highly damaging. But that in and of itself doesn't completely explain NASA's worry for the upcoming alignment in mid-2030. There is an extra element at play, beyond the regular rhythm of this rising flood risk we have been seeing through the course of human history.

Unfortunately, the next node's alignment with the sun promises to be particularly devastating. The danger is that this phenomenon is combined with an already strained system, even more strain than it was in 2015. Climate change has resulted in steadily rising sea levels. When the next node aligns with the Sun in the mid-2030s, this will likely lead to a dramatic increase of floods on planet Earth. Worryingly, a new study led by NASA's sea level change science team predicts that almost all US mainland coastlines, Hawaii and Guam, will have a huge leap in flood numbers when this happens. Some predictions like that are a huge leap in flood numbers when this happens. claim this node alignment could cause four times the amount of flooding from one decade

to the next, which will damage infrastructure and change our coastlines around the world. This means human life will inevitably be affected by these floods, impacting shelter, clean water supplies, electricity, as well as the increased risk of waterborne disease outbreaks like hepatitis A and cholera. Plus, the receding flood water can create stagnant pools of water where, must be able to mosquitoes gather, which can spread other diseases like malaria. This has a knock-on effect on economic issues, as these natural events can make coastal life unaffordable, with increased cost of insurance on these homes, or an inability to find

insurance at all, which could cause a reduction in asset value in the community. Consequently, this lunar nodal cycle will damage the quality of life in coastal communities, where infrastructure may not be rebuilt or adapted to this force of nature. It's not just bad for humans. Ilya Rochlin, a visiting professor at Rutgers University, analyzed at the peak of the lunar wobble where high tides are higher, can drown salt marshes. Salt marshes are a habitat for a range of species, such as invertebrates, and these floods can cause these creatures to drown, which means that other species like fish, seabirds, and

others who rely on invertebrates to survive also suffer. and they aren't the only ones that rely on salt marshes, as salt marshes hold a multitude of marine life, which includes 75% of all fishery species. This means that the lunar wobble impacts the food chains of humans and animals, causing disturbances to their natural habitat and impacting their populations. While this all does seem fairly doom and gloom, it's interesting to note that not all ecosystems on the planet are negatively affected by flooding and high tides. Ecologist Neil St. Alan of Macari University analyzed that the lunar nodal cycle impacts

heavily on the expansion and contraction of mangrove canopy cover over most of the Australian continent. The analysis showed that the peaks of the lunar nodal cycle coincided with the cover of the mangrove canopy. It showed that when the lunar wobble is at its minimum phase, it causes the mangrove ecosystems to become very dry, which leads to things to thick, thinner canopy cover. Yet, when lunar wobble is at its maximum phase, mangrove cover increases. Mangrove canopies are beneficial to Earth's environment, as they are complex ecosystems

that fight against climate change, protect wildlife, and shield coastlines. They can also absorb four times as much carbon dioxide than rainforests of the same size. Their growth is vital to the welfare of our planet, so it's not all downside. Still, it's clear that if we don't plan ahead, coastal cities and environments will face a serious crisis. The all important question then is, what can we do about it? One method is better protection. As I mentioned previously, the protection and restoration of mangroves can act as a shield

against flooding, as they can mitigate the vulnerability of communities on the coastlines. More specifically, mangroves can avert damage by decreasing the land. the height and energy of waves as they pass through mangrove forests. The above-ground roots and branches diminish the height of the waves, and thus the waves lose energy, ultimately stopping the waves emerging onto the seabed and engulfing the sediments. The mangrove's roots and branches also reduce wind energy, which can stop the formation of waves. According to reports, densely packed mangroves can half the height of a wave through just

a 100-meter passage. For comparison, in an open forest where roots and branches are more sparse, it would take 500 meters for a wave to half its height. So preservation and reforestation of these mangroves or plants with a similar capability can become a great shield against upcoming floods. Another possible solution is to learn how to live with these flood-heavy conditions, working with nature rather than against it. For example, let's consider the flood defences in the Netherlands, where one third of the country is below sea level, and another third is at risk of flooding. They've built infrastructure that works with water and manages the rising sea levels.

They do this by designing facilities like polders. Polders are bits of land below sea level that have been reasserted from a body of water. It's always fully or partially surrounded by an embankment to keep the water out that comes from either the sea or a river. These polders offer a network of drainage canals and pumps to manage water levels by disposing of excess water and running water back to the sea or river to make sure that the water doesn't run over land. Polders can be used to protect houses, farms and factories, and thus are used a lot around

the country. The Netherlands also built dams and utilized sand dunes to create ways to stay dry in their swampy land. This shows that there are ways in which we can observe nature and live alongside it. So the bad news is, behind its ethereal beauty, our moon hides a power that, if just so combined, is set to overwhelm humanity's coastal settlements. However, there's always a bit of good news too, as knowledge is a power of its own. By understanding our plight, we can look for solutions, both among already existing ideas, and ways forward that have yet to be discovered.

If we are to endure what is coming, it's high time for us to use our innate creativity and drive to adapt and survive, to work with our planet rather than against it. Well, that's all we have time for today. I hope you've enjoyed listening to this podcast on the Lunar Nodal Cycle. If you like what you've heard, please feel free to follow us for more podcasts on other fascinating space topics. But for now, I'm Alex McCulligan, and this has been Astrum. All the best, and see you next time. a second for threats to your identity, which is way more than anyone can do on their own.

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