At Issue - How a precarious minority will play out in Parliament

Episode Date: September 13, 2024

At Issue this week: The House of Commons is set to return with new minority dynamics. Must-win byelections in Winnipeg and Montreal. And the Liberals hire Mark Carney. Rosemary Barton hosts Chantal H��bert, Andrew Coyne and Althia Raj.

Hey there, I'm David Common. If you're like me, there are things you love about living in the GTA and things that drive you absolutely crazy. Every day on This Is Toronto, we connect you to what matters most about life in the GTA, the news you gotta know, and the conversations your friends will be talking about. Whether you listen on a run through your neighbourhood, or while sitting in the parking lot that is the 401, check out This Is Toronto, wherever you get your podcasts. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Rosemary Barton.

This week on Ad Issue, the podcast edition for Thursday, September 12th. The House of Commons returns Monday, with Pierre Poiliev challenging the bloc and NDP to force an election. If you're polling out, you have to vote non-confidence. But the NDP says it will take no advice from the Conservatives. Anything that happens in Parliament will be based on is in the best interest of Canadians. This week we're asking how are the parties preparing for the return of the House of Commons? Chantal Hébert, Andrew Coyne and Althea Raj join me to talk about that and more.

Plus, we're going to look ahead to those two key by-elections on Monday and what they could mean for the parties. I am actually excited for the return of the House of Commons. I think that's a good sign that I still enjoy my job. But, Andrew, what are you expecting when we all see these new dynamics next week? Well, we're in the shadow of a number of external events. You know, the breakup of the Liberal NDP agreement, the resignation of Liberal National Campaign Director, the coming by-elections in Elmland Transcona and La Salle and Mare Vaudun, and generally overhanging it, a sense of impending doom, I guess, on the Liberals' part.

So you see all the parties, including the Liberals, kind of maneuvering in that context. The Conservatives and the NDP almost seem to be looking past the Liberals and taking more shots at each other these days than they are at the liberals. I don't actually think we're into any kind of countdown to an election, I think. The NDP had no intention of bringing the liberals down while they were in the agreement, and they have no more intention to bring them down now that they're out of the agreement. All that's changed is instead of having an agreement that they can point to and say, well, we're not going to bring them down because of that, now they're going to have to come up with a fresh set of excuses for each situation.

So that won't be too pleasant for them. But other than that, you know, it's maybe a bit more of an opening for the block to wheel and deal, and maybe they'll get some offers from the Liberals or not. But other than that, I don't think it's that changed because of the decline of the deal. Chantal, what do you think? Just the fact that it is not as stable, whether the confidence votes happen quickly or we don't get to an election, the fact that it is not as stable is a change. I actually will quarrel with the notion that it's not as stable because nothing prevented

Mr. Singh from tearing up the agreement on the morning of any vote over the past two years, as we saw. I would also argue that a lot of the stuff we've seen over the past two weeks, and there I include the tearing up of the agreement by the NDP, but also Mr. Poiliev's two similar news conferences saying he was going to have a confidence vote and daring the NDP in English and the Bloc in French to defeat the government were driven in large part by Monday's by-elections. And the attempt by both the Conservatives and the NDP to score points with voters, the NDP hopes to hang on to a seat in Winnipeg.

The Conservatives want that seat. The Montreal battle is on. But I don't think we're going to be going into an election between now and November, put it this way. And I'll remind you again that there is no reason for anything to be a confidence vote between now and the end of the year. And we'll talk more about the by-elections after the next break. But Althea, you were at the Liberal caucus over the past number of days.

And I wonder whether anyone you talked to there feels like things have shifted a little bit for them. A little on several fronts. I will say I think a lot of what we're hearing, the messaging that we're hearing at the moment is actually about Monday's by-elections. I think they're quite significant. Beyond that though, I think the next few weeks and months are going to be pretty exciting in Parliament because errors are always possible and we are going to be reading in between the lines every single little thing, policy change or position change from every single political party. Two things coming out of the Liberal caucus, I would say one, the party may not sound like it behind, you know, through the cover of anonymous sources,

but internally, they seem to be a little bit more united than they were going into that caucus. I think you're going to see instead of people calling for the prime minister's head next Wednesday, you know, if they lose the by-election in Montreal, you'll see people decide that they're just not going to run again. That's where that discussion is going to happen. The other thing, though, is that there is a new drive, if you will, like the people who are staying around because they genuinely believe or they've convinced themselves that they can hang on to their own seat if there is a blue wave,

but they want to see change. And the party has told them, you're going to see change. We're going to do more government advertising. We're going to tell people the wonderful things that we have done so that when we tell them Kira Poyaliev is going to take them away, they'll actually feel that something is being taken away from them. So there is a new strategy on the liberal side and there is a new leadership angle as well that I think it was not quite as present as it was, you know, is not manifesting itself in the same way as it was last year.

The faces of our colleagues here, as you spoke about, this was quite something. So, Andrew, I won't even prompt you, and then I'll get Chantal to get you in as well. Well, it's never a good sign that a government is really plugged into what's going on out there if it thinks the problem is just it hasn't bought enough ads or hasn't been strenuous enough

in telling Canadians all the great things it's been doing. I would suggest their problems are much more deep-seated than that. I think the smart people in the party know that, but the smart people in the party may be the ones who are getting out. Svetlana Kotliarova, The Canadian People's Party How can I beat that line? Almost impossible. You will.

Listen, whatever pleasant air was being taken in by the Liberal caucus in B.C., a place where they don't have much of a dog in the provincial fight, they will get a reality check from real voters on Monday. That is one. If they need to sober up before then, they might look at two polls that came out over the past week since the NDP walked away from the Liberals. Both polls devastating for both the Liberals and the NDP. And Ipsos and Neji, if you're looking for the authors of the polls, the breakdown, the regional breakdowns are devastating with the Conservatives.

And both polls match with the Conservatives at 51% in Ontario. I don't think I've seen polls as bad region by region since Brian Mulroney had to deal with the Bloc Québécois and the Reform Party. And Justin Trudeau doesn't even have that as an issue. And by the way, both polls had the Bloc Québécois with a solid lead, solid lead of 34% in Québec. Conservatives now have in several polls more, a larger share of the vote than the Liberals and the NDP combined. And I'm trying to remember when that was the last case in the election. Sure, probably not when I was around, to be honest.

Althea, so let's talk a little bit about the Conservatives then. The way Pierre Poiliev is playing this, and I think you're right, it's mostly about the by-elections on Monday, but broadly the fact that he's trying to taunt the other parties to come along for the ride. What do you make of how he's trying to control that part of the story. It's interesting that he's framing it around the language of a carbon tax election because he tried this earlier in the spring. He brought forward a motion calling for a carbon tax election and both the NDP and the Bloc at the time in the spring voted with the Liberals because they supported a carbon price. It's not clear as we're recording this that NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is so on board anymore with this idea of a carbon price. So perhaps the NDP will change their positioning and then it will only be the Bloc Québécois that votes with the Liberals.

But the thing that nobody says that is clearly obvious is both Jagmeet Singh and Yves-François Blanchet, the leaders of the NDP and the Bloc, would much rather have Prime Minister Justin Trudeau than Prime Minister Pierre Poiliev, especially if Pierre Poiliev is a majority government. At least they can get some stuff. And that is the angle that we're sure to hear from the bloc, and that we may hear or may not hear, depending on whether or not the Liberals are willing to give, basically spend more money to make Mr. Blanchet happy, or if they're willing to compromise on a few principles to make Mr. Blanchet happy. Last word to Chantal. I'll just point out that today Premier Eby in BC also

put forward the idea that he didn't want an individual carbon tax anymore there too. But Chantal, last word to you. Well, yes, he wouldn't want it if there was no longer a requirement for by the federal government for provinces to put a price on carbon, which I think has also to do with the provincial campaign ongoing. The carbon pricing scheme in BC was never an election issue because both the Liberals and the NDP supported the concept. Now as for Mr. Singh and carbon pricing, the NDP wants more attention,, it's bound to get some. And today Mr. Singh hinted rather vaguely that he didn't like the way that carbon pricing worked under the Liberals

because it put too much of a burden on consumers. I'm curious to know how people who are getting refunds are getting too much of a bargain. And with system, the NDP has found that will not filter down to consumers by shifting the balance to industry but that's just me because it's very cloudy as a position see this is these are the exciting new dynamics that we're gonna have next week at issue two by elections this Monday must win for the Liberals in one and the NDP in the other both have been on the offensive the answer the Conservatives are bringing forward is oh no we'll

create growth and opportunities through cutting programs Canadians are relying on. People have an important choice in these by-elections. In La Salle and Méridane people have a choice to say no to Liberals who've taken you for granted. So what is at stake for the parties and what will it mean for this newly precarious government? Let's bring back everybody, Chantal, Althea and Andrew. So we could go through all the scenarios, but it's the liberals in the NDP, obviously, who hold one of each seat. And if they lose, I think there's problems.

Who ends up with the most problems, do you think think here Althea, if either of those parties lose their seat? The NDP. The NDP's current offer is we are the option for change, we are the progressive option for change. If they cannot hold on to the receipt in Winnipeg and the Conservatives take it from them, then you know what confidence does that give voters elsewhere that they should vote for the NDP and that that can be the alternative to Pierre Poiliev? Similar in La Salle et Morte Verdun, where this is a longtime liberal stronghold, where half the writing was actually represented by former Prime Minister Paul Martin. If the NDP is not the one to steal it from the liberals, if it's the Bloc Québécois, for example, again, it goes to that narrative

that they've been trying to drill into us for the last two weeks, that they want to be the option for change. So if they lose both of these ridings, I think that is not good at all. I had originally thought, I'm not even sure if I said it on this program or not, that this would be a bad sign

for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that the caucus meeting the Wednesday following the Monday by-election would be tense. for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that the caucus meeting the Wednesday following the Monday by-election would be tense. I no longer believe that to be true after talking to a lot of caucus members in Nanaimo. He's not going anywhere. And it doesn't matter how many voices may line up at the microphone, Prime Minister is not going anywhere.

And nobody wants to put their neck out. And even though they all say it, he's not going anywhere and nobody wants to put their neck out and even though they all say it he's not going anywhere so even if they lose by 25 points i think he'll still be there okay so so what do you make of that chantal that you i think you mentioned last week too that you thought it was a real test for the ndp but but are they the ones you know is that the storyline the next day or is it about the government or is the damage so done that we just expect them to lose at this point? The sheer fact that the NDP and the Liberals are in tight races and expect close results in seats that should be solid in both cases means that whatever the outcome, the message has already been sent that these

are weakened parties who will be bringing a really weak hand to an election if one should take place any time soon. Now the NDP, I mean, Jagmeet Singh has lost ground in 21 of 22 by-elections since he became leader of the NDP. If he can't hold on to that Winnipeg seat, there is no way that with a straight face he can continue to say we are the stronger alternative to block Pierre Poilier from winning government. Worst case scenario in Lassalle, Émart, Verdun would be for the Bloc to win and the NDP to

finish third, because that would mean that having put all those resources in a riding where they did have a shot at 20% in the last election, they couldn't even beat the Liberals for second place. So, yeah, I think the stakes are pretty high for Mr. Singh, but I don't believe you can get away, notwithstanding Justin Trudeau's contention that he's staying you can't get away from the fact that losing a second seat in Montreal after having lost one in Toronto is almost a mortal blow to the moral

authority that Mr. Trudeau may still have over his caucus. I agree with Althea though I you know I talked to or texted various MPs who were at the caucus, and they did not come out depressed. In fact, some of them were reassured, was a word that was used. I don't know what the by-election results will change, but for good or for bad, they seem to have accepted where they are, Andrew. That sounds a whole lot more like resignation to me that then unity or hope yeah but you know resignation is certainly part of the healing process look without taking anything away from what Chantal was

saying there is nevertheless is a difference between a close victory and a loss if the Liberals had won Toronto st. Paul's but it had been a narrow thing that would have been bad but it wouldn't have been as bad in the way these things are scored as losing the riding. That being said, I think there's a decent chance that both the NDP and the Liberals hold on to these ridings. I think the NDP has the better shot in El Motran-Scona because it's a two-way race and that riding has tended to be pretty solidly NDP. They've got Wab Canoes, coattails that might help. And, you know, there's really just a straight-up fight with the Conservatives. So, again, if they lose, then that's so much the worse.

In La Salle-et-Mar, what the Liberals may have going for them, I mean, the bloc seems to be leading the polls, but it is a three-way race. And when it's that kind of race, it's really on a knife edge. You know, that's why they lost in Toronto st. Paul's was all of the anti-liberal voted coalesced around the Conservatives the NDP vote collapsed it doesn't seem to have happened in Los Alamos and so they might squeeze through and get lucky so how do you want in on that part no except to note some fairly traditional fault lines that we have forgotten over the past decade,

and it is that when two Federalist parties are fighting each other in Montreal, the Sovereignist party tends to do better. Come up the middle. Last 30 seconds to you, Althea. I just think it's, you know, maybe one thing we will be talking about next Thursday is whether or not Jagmeet Singh should stay. If he loses both of these ridings, are there knives out in his party? Because there is a lot of unpopular,

I mean, I'm in BC at the moment, a lot of unhappy BC NDPers who actually showed up, interestingly enough to me, at the Liberal caucus meeting because they want federal liberals to vote provincially NDP in the next election, but also because they tell me

they really don't like Jagmeet Singh. And there are a lot of people in caucus who also kind of feel that way. So, you know, is that a topic of conversation we will be having as opposed to the liberals? I do think that there are other problems that the by-election in La Salle-et-Mar exposes. The fault line on the Israel-Gaza war is a big topic of discussion among MPs, especially MPs in the GTA, and also just how election-ready the party is. You know, if they win, if they lose, rather, by just a small margin, then a lot of questions need to be asked about the party infrastructure, because that

Toronto-St. Paul by-election, it was winnable. You nailed that 30 seconds. That is incredible. I'm sending you a gold star. Well done. The Liberal Party has announced Mark Carney will lead a new task force on economic growth. The former Bank of Canada governor has long flirted with getting into politics. I'm interested in helping our country to grow. I'm interested in doing something, not being something. And this is a decisive time for our economy. So what's been made of this new position for Mr. Carney? What does it mean for the Liberals?

Let's bring everybody back. Chantal, Althea, Andrew. Althea, how did this go over? Not publicly, but in the hallways? Because I would imagine it would ruffle some feathers of some people. A mixed reaction. Some people, incredibly enthused. Jean-Yves Duclos, the Minister of Procurement, seemed to be bouncing off the walls. I mean, he's an economist, so obviously he liked the ginwag that Mark Carney had. So basically, he spoke for about 10 minutes,

and then he answered MPs' questions for about a half an hour. Others not as impressed. One MP wondered if this was a Machiavelli employee by the Prime Minister to say, this is the guy you want to replace me with. I will say the journalist reaction to Mark Carney, especially those who did not know him, who didn't cover like 2008 during the global financial crisis where mr carney was a bit front and center um i thought that the reaction from my french colleagues was quite interesting they were not impressed either i actually thought that he did pretty well but i'm comparing this mark carney to what i have seen from mark carney in the speeches he gave in the spring which i was not impressed with at all i thought the media scrum was pretty good. So we'll see going forward. It is interesting

why he decided to show up. Yes. Why the Liberals decided to invite him. They want to see, be seen to be attracting people, people with cachet that are helping boost the Liberal brand, signaling to centre-right Canadians that there's a space for them within the Liberal Party. Yeah. And Mr. Carney does not want to be seen as somebody who did not accept a position of finance minister. He wants to be seen as a good soldier. But his phrasing, describing himself as an outsider, I thought that was very interesting. Yeah, because, I mean, if he is still, I mean, and I think it's fair to say he is still

thinking about the opportunities. He's told us that he would be interested. Yeah, so he has to be careful not to get too close to a government that's doing so poorly. And the other thing that they did, and we can talk about, is that the Liberal Party hired him so that he doesn't have to put forward any of his other contracts and business dealings and doesn't have to disclose all of that publicly, which the Conservatives have criticized but you can sort of

understand why he might want to do it that way. Chantal what do you make of the way Mr. Carney is doing this? I'm so struggling to get that picture of Minister Duclos bouncing off walls. He's a very tall man Yeah, I know him. Not very bouncy, though. Yes, I didn't have him as a bouncy type, but that's okay. I think when you look at it from the angle of political interest, it's a win-win for Justin Trudeau and for Mark Carney. Justin Trudeau, because he's still attracting talent, and that is talent, and economic gravitas that this government and he himself lacks. And by the way, without having to signal that he's moving to the right, because if you talk to people who worry about climate,

they will tell you that they actually like Mark Carney because he makes the economic case very forcefully, and he doesn't look like someone who lugs trees. And a win for Mr. Carney because yes he's not in cabinet he doesn't have to take orders and say and then bear any responsibility for the record of the government going forward but it is liberals who will pick the next leader and those liberals will remember that he did not stay completely on the sidelines when the party was in trouble.

Yes, awfully good point. Last word to you, Andrew. Yeah, it's an intriguing compromise for both sides, starting with Carney, as has been said. He's understandably reluctant to jump onto the sinking ship, but he's going to look pretty bad if he just tries to swoop in after the election. There will be a lot of resentment in the party, I think, for that that so this allows him to get his feet wet get in there without being too too close and by the same token for the Prime Minister he's able to hand him this file which I think I can boil it down is execute a massive u-turn on the handling of the economy particular on the growth

file from everything they've been doing until now. That's a tricky assignment. He might not want to have saddled his finance minister with that. He can give it to a quote-unquote outsider like Carney and have plausible deniability if in the end it doesn't fly, if it blows up in his face. So I think it's useful for that. Going back to Carney, it gives him a chance to show what he can do. We know he's got the policy chops. Does he have the political chops? Is he able to find a package of proposals that's not only sound in policy terms, but

can be sold politically, first of all to the party, and ultimately to the public at large, and can he be an effective salesman for it on top of that? And we'll find out. As Althea said, his first forays weren't particularly heartwarming, but maybe he'll show that he's learning on the ground. But we're assuming that he'll have time. You know, what if we have an election campaign in two months? Sure, sure. I don't think we will.

I don't think we will either. But his goal is to write the next platform. By the way, for those who will be asking, is French, is two weeks of practice short of being totally acceptable? Yeah. Yeah. OK, look, I'm sure we'll talk about him again. Thank you all again and we'll see you next week. That's At Issue, the podcast edition for this week. What are you going to be watching for next week when the House returns? How do you feel about the potential for a federal election?

Let us know. You can send us an email, ask at cbc.ca. And remember, you can also catch me on TV. Rosemary Barton, live Sundays at 10 a.m. Eastern. Talk to you next week. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.