At Issue - How the Trump factor has reshaped the election race

Episode Date: March 24, 2025

At Issue this week: How U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies and threats against Canada have reshaped the election race. Rosemary Barton hosts Chantal Hébert, Andrew Coyne and Althia Raj.

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This is a CBC podcast. At issue tonight, the election campaign begins. Leaders are hitting the road and pitching Canadians on why they're the best choice to respond to the threats from Donald Trump. We've done a lot in the nine days to put in place many of the foundations. But what's important is that the government has a mandate from the Canadian people. Liberals have replaced Justin Trudeau with his economic adviser and handpicked successor, Mark Carney.

But a liberal is a liberal is a liberal. Only new Democrats will fight to make sure you don't pay the price when things get harder. The Green Team has what it takes to make Canada rise and resist and face the future with open arms. I read Newton, what goes up goes down. If that's good for me, that's good for Mr. Carney.

So what's at stake for the parties in this election and how will the Trump factor affect this race? I'm Rosemary Barton here to discuss the start of Canada's federal election. Chantelle Iber, Andrew Coyne and Althea Raj. Yes, I am legitimately this excited. I do love an election. Chantelle, this is something Pierre Poiliev and other opposition parties wanted. This is the election they've wanted. Give me your sense of what you heard from, we'll start with Mark Carney and Pierre Poiliev earlier today. Mr. Carney has been Prime Minister for what, less than 10 days and he has already managed to move enough goal posts from the previous mandate that he could claim at least

to be running on a record that has nothing to do with Justin Trudeau. But that was somehow almost magic. I also noted that he asked for a strong mandate, which in our language means asking for a majority mandate. Who would have thought that an outgoing liberal prime minister this year would be asking for a majority mandate? I also noted that Piapweliyev did not go into that and you were talking about the Trump effect. Looking from the outside,

seeing it, I wasn't on site. It seemed to me that for someone who's been asking for an election for a year and a half, Pierre Poirier's opening statement kind of lacked energy. But if you want to talk about the Trump factor, the fact that with five of the six questions that were put to the conservative leader dealt with Donald Trump. It probably didn't help that Alberta premier Daniel Smith kind of set up Pierre Poilieff with an interview to a pro-Trump network in the U.S. where she basically argued that he was a lot closer to Donald Trump's view of the new America than the Liberals and that they should want

him to become Prime Minister. Yeah, I would imagine there was a phone call placed to her office asking her to cease and desist after that. Andrew, what did you make of the top two contenders there, Mr. Carney and Mr. Poilie, of how they started this campaign? Yeah, well, certainly, Carney and the the liberals are going to be all Trump all the time, that Donald Trump represents a threat to the country's existence. I think he said the Americans want to own us, and they're going to be trying to tie

Poyerver as much as they can to Trump. Unfortunately, as Chantel mentioned, some ammunition has been provided, not just by Mr. Carney, Mr. Poyerver himself over the weeks prior to this, but also by Daniel Smith. The conservatives will be trying to, at the same time, to say, look, there's a whole liberal record here that Mark Carney can try to run away from, but on the economy, on affordability, on housing, et cetera. And if they can't absolutely tie things back to that, they can at least try to say, look, yeah, Trump's a threat, but the liberals

have left us weakened. They have militarily or economically or what have you and to ridge that gap that way. If I can boil it down is the conservatives are gonna try and claim that Carney is too close to Justin Trudeau. The liberal can try and say that Paul Yevr is too close to Trump.

The trouble for the conservatives is Justin Trudeau is no longer with us politically, and Donald Trump very much is. I did think that Mr. Paul Ebert talked more about change than he has in a while, Althea, trying to, again, hit home that classic election message that Canadians, when Canadians want change they want change, and there's no force greater than that. But give me your take about what you heard from the two of them. Well, I mean, he put change in the slogan on the podium for the first time, Canada's

first for a change. I think both leaders spoke to the Trump question and to the change question. I mean, Mr. Carney talked about all the ways in which he has been different than Justin Trudeau in his first nine days as prime minister, all the steps that he has taken, whether that's the consumer price on carbon or the reversal on capital gains or the movements with the premiers, for example. I don't think it's quite settled yet what the ballot question will be. Will the ballot question be about who is the stronger leader to deal with Donald Trump?

And on that question, polls suggest Mark Carney wins by a landslide. Or is the appetite for change still going to be a driver for lots of voters at the polls? And Mr. Poliev has determined that he wins on the change and he is diving deep down on the change while also trying to address a vulnerability on the Trump front. And Mr. Carney is deep down on the who can handle Trump, but also acknowledging that he has a vulnerability on the change front and trying to address that. So I think we're going to see those two narratives compete with one another in the next 36 days. Yeah, that's fascinating, the idea that they're both presenting has changed Chantel. And I wonder if it's possible for Mark Carney to do that,

even under that liberal banner and with all those same liberals around him. But man, he has done things differently over the past nine days than Justin Trudeau, that's for sure. Yes, but I'm gonna sidestep your question to ask myself. And the next few weeks will tell us that whether change is as attractive to voters as it was two months ago versus stability.

And on that score, there is a card for Mark Carney to play because he kind of represents change with a team that is familiar to Canadians and I am not convinced that the voters who have flocked to the Liberals are conservative. They mostly tend to come from the NDP and the Bloc Québécois. So actually if Mr. Playaev wants to win this election he has to hope that the NDP and the Bloc do well, and that they bring their voters home, because basically a lot of what has happened has been other voters, non-conservatives, saying, yes, we'd rather go to Mark Carney to block

Pierre Poilier than to stick with our parties. So, and so from what we heard of Jagmeet Singh and Yves-François Blanchet today, Andrew, do you see that happening? Jagmeet Singh's message really seemed to be about class and, you know, him standing up for Canadian workers as opposed to Donald Trump in particular. I think that was the NDP leader trying to save the furniture. The Liberal, the NDP are in a lot of trouble I think in this election. Because things, there's such a crisis atmosphere, I think there'll be a real tendency for things to polarize between the conservatives and the liberals. And that doesn't leave a lot of room. It's always the age-old liberal message to NDP

voters. You can't vote NDP. You have to vote liberals to stop the Tories. Now there's an extra edge of it. You have to vote liberal to stop Donald Trump. And the more that they can demonize Paul Yevra as being not either, either not able to stand up to Trump or too beholden to his base, some portion of which actually likes Donald Trump or certainly the ones who are leaking into the People's Party. And I think there's some truth in that. Paul Yevra has been noticeably slow to get into this match, to get it to line up against Donald Trump.

He has, eventually, but he kind of, I think, let some crucial initiatives slip. I think it would have been much smarter for him to really have taken the initiative and kind of broke with Trump in a very visible way and take the risk of losing some support to the PPC, because otherwise he's looking, he looks a bit weak as a result. What do you think about Jörg Mietzing and Yves-François Blanchet's launch today, Althea? Well, I mean, where the party leaders go kind of tells a story that they want us to tell Canadians, right? Like the conservative leader is going to the GTA, that's a place where a majority can be had, the Liberals are going to Newfoundland because they want to, you know, bring up the message that this is where the blue wave started, this is where the red wave seems to be had, the liberals are going to Newfoundland because they want to bring up the message that this is where the blue wave started, this is where the red wave seems to be starting,

they're going to paint the country red. The NDP went, Jagmeet Singh, launched in Ottawa and then went to Montreal to basically save the furniture in Alexandre Bourguis' writing, a writing that should be a really easy win for them. They're trying to convince us that they can get Stephen Guibert's writing. This is the Quebec lieutenant, the former environment minister who was so popular they made him the Quebec lieutenant. There's like no way they're going to win Stephen Guibert's writing.

So why are they even pretending that that is in play? It's almost like when Jameet Singh says he's running to be prime minister. Why not just be authentic with Canadians and say, you're running to be the best opposition that they can possibly be. They're going to try to get as much as they can from either a liberal government or a conservative government. And that is what their end goal is, and this is their record. I don't, I mean, obviously I'm not sitting in the NDP brain trust, but I find this perplexing. Yes, I also do. Tell us a story that makes sense. Yeah.

Yeah. Last minute to you, Chantelle, on the NDP and the Bloc. I read that stuff in Montreal in another way. I don't believe we will see much of Mr. Singh in Montreal, and that's probably good news for the only MP that the NDP has in Quebec, because Mr. Singh does not bring votes to Alexandre Boullegues. He will win on his own. But I think bottom line,

despite the I want to be Prime Minister speak, they're going to do what the Ontario NDP did, focus on the right and ensure they can save the furniture. And increasingly, that is what you're going to see. Ontario NDP did, focus on the right to where they can save the furniture. And increasingly, that is what you're going to see. I think the Bloc has a better strategy, but they're also in a better position by saying there are a lot of things will be negotiated over the course of the next three, four years. Do you not want a Quebec Rail Guard in the House of Commons to secure Quebec's interests?

And that gives Mr Blanchet a bit more to talk about than Joc Mead Singh. The numbers for now are sobering also for the block, by the way. Okay, got to leave it there, but it's just it's just the kickoff day. We're going to see you often. Not every night, I promise, but often. Thank you all for this, for the kickoff. That is at issue for this week. We're getting ready for a busy election and we of course want to hear from you. If you're an undecided voter, first time voter, or thinking about not voting at all, let us know.

Send us an email at ask at cbc.ca. Remember, you can catch me on Rosemary Barton Live, Sundays at 10 a.m. Eastern. Thanks for listening. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.