At Issue - Is Canada ready for Trump’s tariff turmoil?

Episode Date: January 24, 2025

At Issue this week: Donald Trump continues to lob tariff threats at Canada, now as president of the United States. Deadline day arrives for the Liberal leadership race. And will Ontario Premier Doug Ford call an early election? Rosemary Barton hosts Chantal Hébert, Andrew Coyne and Althia Raj.

What does a mummified Egyptian child, the Parthenon marbles of Greece and an Irish giant all have in common? They are all stuff the British stole. Maybe. Join me, Mark Fennell, as I travel around the globe uncovering the shocking stories of how some, let's call them ill-gotten, artifacts made it to faraway institutions. Spoiler, it was probably the British. Don't miss a brand new season of Stuff the British Style. Watch it free on CBC Gem. This is a CBC Podcast. Hey there, I'm Rosemary Barton.

This week on At Issue, the podcast edition for Thursday, January 23rd. Trump's tariffs. Donald Trump is once again threatening Canada, this time as president. Canada has been very tough to deal with over the years. You can always become a state man of your estate. We won't have a deficit, we won't have to tariff. The Prime Minister says the government is ready to respond. Canada will have a strong robust response because we don't want this but we will respond if necessary.

This week we're asking how is Canada preparing to respond to these continued threats? Chantelle Iber, Andrew Coyne and Althea Raj join me to talk about that. Plus, deadline day arrives for the Liberal leadership race. Chantelle, I'm going to start with you. What do you make of how the government is responding to these threats that continue even if there isn't anything that's happened yet? Well I think we can dispose of the notion that bolstering forces at the border or doing something about fentanyl, which we should in any event, is going to solve this.

That was yesterday's version or the day before. I also don't think that the realm of reason is going to work. What was the deficit, the trade deficit that the president quoted today, over 300 billion, that's actually not at all within the realm of reality in any way, shape or form. So I'm guessing the best they can do is to try to speak with one voice and see what happens and when it happens because February 1st is now the date that's up in the air, but there are other reasons to believe it could come later, it could come, I don't know, tomorrow. This is not an intelligent process. So the Government of Canada and its allies and the premiers can only try to adjust from day to day to reality. And the reality is nothing has happened yet.

Right. But that chaos that he is sort of seeding within this country and with political leaders, Andrew, is, I don't know, is it doing what it's supposed to do, kind of getting everybody worried about things? Well, I think we have to entertain the possibility that not only that this has nothing to do with fentanyl or migrants at the border, but also that it's not just a threat, that it's something he wants to do because he likes sowing chaos, because he likes tariffs, because he believes in it. And certainly it seems to me the most prudent operating assumption is that this is not just a bluff and not just a threat, but he's going to do it. And that whatever we do in response, and we should respond, may not succeed in getting him to lift it.

In other words, we should be planning for the possibility that these tariffs are going to be around for a while. Which means we need to be doing a lot more than just retaliating. We need to be thinking through what we have to do to preserve our competitiveness and preserve our economy in the face of this because there's going to be a very strong incentive. And it's very clearly part of Trump's plan is if you want to escape the tariff, then you've got to invest in America. So that's signaling to everybody who's thinking of where they're going to locate investment. If we're going to have counter arguments to that, tariffs are one factor, but they're not the be-all and the end-all. But one thing we've got to be addressing, and this was already a big issue in terms of the productivity crisis,

the growth crisis, but it's now become times nine, it's now an existential crisis, is we've got to be able to say to people, there are reasons to invest in Canada even with the tariffs. In other words, we've got to be a hyper competitive economy, hyper competitive tax rates, hyper competitive investment climate. We cannot tolerate any of these things like inter-provincial trade barriers anymore. We've got to be doing everything at warp speed to make ourselves such a compelling and attractive place to invest and to do business that even with the tariffs we can survive and prosper. So that's a much larger agenda than just what tariffs to put on or what export taxes we put on. I'll just say finally, it sure would be nice to have a parliament sitting that could decide what kinds of measures we're going to put

in place, not just in the short run but for the longer run, instead of waiting as we're going to be waiting, at least probably until June. Althea? I guess a few things. To Andrew's point, I absolutely agree. I think the key point is that we should not just want to court investments because of our proximity to the United States,

which has been basically the offering that Canada has been displaying for generations. I will say that I think the government is actually seized with that issue. I'm not sure that they're doing enough, but it is on their agenda. The cabinet ministers at the retreat this week were talking about that. The premiers are talking about that.

But whatever they're actually going to do about it, because as we all know, my very first Canadian Federation meeting I was sent to to cover the provinces talking to each other, the number one thing on the agenda was getting rid of inter-provincial trade barriers and that was more than 20 years ago. Yes, me too. So it's like this topic that we talk about and nothing ever gets done on. Can I just say something quickly on that? Yeah, then I want to let Althea finish.

This might be the moment when we start thinking about things like the peace order and good government power. If we're dealing with this kind of threat to our economy, then different rules may apply and different mechanisms may be available to the feds to try to get rid of some of these trade barriers. Okay, Althea, continue with your points there. Yeah, I'll say two points. To Andrew's point about parliament, when we left, Parliament was dysfunctional.

It was, you know, stuck in a filibuster that wasn't going anywhere, and another one that was on the way. So I'm not actually convinced that Parliament's sitting. I would love to believe what Andrew is saying happens, but it doesn't, really. It's a gigantic mess. Committees have turned into just partisan show where no tangible work seems to happen, at least in the lower house, in the upper house, in the Senate,

it's quite different. On the actual results, I think, you know, we have been talking about this, and the political leaders have been talking about this as, like, action that they are going to take. But frankly, it's action that we are all going to feel. And it would be helpful if they realize that Canadians are the ones who are going to be choosing

to take some action and that action, there may be things that we as a country will have to acknowledge and we're starting to see some of the provinces think about this more actively. I think about British Columbia and Quebec, for example. If we are all in this together, and maybe there were things that are, you know, some populations in certain parts of the country were unwilling to say, well, maybe we should build a pipeline going east, or maybe we should invest more money in an energy grid.

Maybe now, you know, the stakes have been painted and we all realize that these are sacrifices that we're willing to do with each other because we don't frankly want to be swallowed up by the United States. We don't want all the investment to drain south. Yeah it's beyond saying I'm not going to Florida this year there's other big national projects we could tackle as a country Chantal. Or as in I didn't have any orange juice this morning that was one of the answers from François Legault this week. Possibly, probably, but I think in the immediate, I am with Althea on Parliament. I watched some of the interviews Conservative leader Pierre Poirier was giving this week. He was saying, bring back Parliament in the same breath. He was saying, I want an election. Well, I'm not so sure that it's terribly helpful to bring back

parliament, to divert government's attention to trying not to have a non-confidence vote. And I do believe that Canadians, by and large, and based on polls, want to have a real choice in the next election, not a choice between Pierre Poilier and nobody. So if that's the point of bringing back parliament, I'm want to have a real choice in the next election, not a choice between Pierre Poilier and nobody. So if that's the point of bringing back Parliament, I'm not convinced that it's a really constructive suggestion.

As for an energy grid, a pipeline, I watched the Premier, I think, of Nova Scotia saying the federal government must approve Energy East. I'm sorry There is no energy East project on the book to approve these projects Would need to come from the industry. Yeah. Yeah And I'm not convinced that there they will be coming anytime soon. So Drill baby drill let's copy this

well you need companies that believe that it's worthwhile to do this. And I'm not convinced that they will be coming to the fourth wall. I only have about 20 seconds, Andrew. I don't usually quote Pierre Paulieva, but you don't put the business of the nation on hold for two months while the liberals

sort out their stuff. They could have chosen a leader by any number of faster processes than this. They're taking their own sweet time doing it. That's fine from their purposes, but if it means you shut down parliament for two months at a time of national crisis, basically an economic war has been declared on us, that's what you have parliaments for. At issue, the next Liberal leader.

The deadline to enter the race has now passed. The candidates now making their pitches. We need a Liberal Party of Canada for the next generation. For me, a huge emphasis is going to be reviving the party, reviving the grassroots of the party. We can put this economy back on track as a team. So here to break down the race for the Liberalsals next leader and next Prime Minister for some time anyway, Chantal, Andrea and Althea. Althea, where do you think this race is headed from from what you've seen this week? A lot of endorsements, certainly more for Mark Carney, but Christia Freeland has a bunch too. Where is this going?

Mark Carney has all the momentum. The CBC is located on Queen Street in Ottawa and just across the street. As we are speaking, there are still MPs gathering. I'm told about 60 caucus members at an event for Mark Kearney. One of those MPs actually crossed the street to tell me, this is Cody Bloys from Nova Scotia, a rural MP, to tell me that for the first time in six years he was elected in 2019, he feels excited to be a liberal and that the people in his riding that you know two six months ago were calling him and telling him oh Cody I'm sorry but I cannot vote for you I really don't like your leader and what is your government doing have now signed up for Mark Carney and have donated and are signing up more members and he feels, I mean the excitement was palpable on his face. So

that is happening. It is also really interesting to see some MPs who had announced that they were not going to run again, yes, change their mind and now think that their seats basically are winnable under Mark Kearney's leadership. Helena and the GTA has said that she's gonna run again. I'm told that there is, yeah, probably a few others who, definitely one other person, but I will let that person make their own announcement. So.

Decent of it. There is a feeling among liberals that they feel like they have new lives. Ms. Freeland's campaign, I don't think anticipated the energy that would gravitate towards Mark Carney. She is trying to paint herself as a grassroots liberal, which is interesting because she just joined the party in 2012 or 2013, was it? But so there's like this dynamic

that I'm not actually sure really exists because I do think liberals are thirsty for a win. So I don't know how this like, you know, kind of focusing in on the grassroots and having conventions and having leadership reviews and formalized conventions. I mean, last time I was at the Liberal Convention, I was like one of three people in the room and they didn't have quorum to have policy discussions

at age 30, so I'm not sure how many super eager grassroots liberals there are anyways. Yeah, and the excitement, okay, like great, someone feels excited about their party, but there's no public opinion poll at this stage, Andrew, that has shown that anything has changed. I mean, we'll see, obviously, as the race goes on. Well, there's a poll.

There's the ECOS poll. Frank Graves is online claiming that the Liberals have pulled within five points. Oh, we shall see. That's not being shown in any of the other polls. No, it's not. I'm struck by a couple of things. One is, if you look at the people supporting Mark Carney, the MPs and cabinet ministers, they both seem more diverse than Christian Freeland supporters, but they

also seem slightly to the left. He's got Stephen Guy Bowe and Melanie Jolie behind him. She's got Anthony Housefather and Yvonne Baker, who wrote that centrist manifesto for the papers the other day. And they're both certainly rowing pretty hard away from the Trudeau legacy, at least so far as he pulled the party to the left, but she seems to be maybe rowing even harder than Carney is at that point. So it's an oddity that the outsider candidate seems to be more the voice of continuity at this point anyway, we'll see what else they come out with, than the long-time loyal lieutenant. It seems more like the change agent in that sense. But I think if you're a liberal you're looking at this and you're going, look, Carney has a lot of

star power, could also really blow up. You know, he does not speak good French, has never run for electoral office, you know, hasn't wowed people in terms of his speech-making ability, we shall see. So you know, real potential downside, but also probably more potential upside than Christopher Linn. He's got more of the star power, etc. And if you're a liberal, you're kind of going, well, how much worse can the downside be? We're flat on our backs anyway. Maybe take a flyer on this guy who at least can give us some hope.

Yeah, I mean, he hasn't done any interviews yet, so that would all be... Obviously, he did interviews and previous jobs, but not... He did a little scrum. Yeah, he did a little scrum today, but he hasn't done an interview yet, so that would also be... Obviously he did interviews and did his jobs, but not... Yeah, he did a little scrum today, but he hasn't done an interview yet, so that's significant. And I would suggest to Chantel that Christian Freeland has to row further away from Justin Trudeau, because she's still very much attached to him in terms of the policies that she once loved and now is ditching. Yes, but there's a limit to how much you can roll when you're tied by a rope. Let's be serious here. If you Google Christian Freeland you're gonna almost always see a picture of Justin Trudeau

standing next to her or her standing next to him and I think many liberals are saying well you know if you didn't like Justin Trudeau, you probably won't like Christoph Friedman. And that is a fact of life. I'm not sure that it's the left that is going with Mark Carney, but I think he is getting rewards for being someone who has tried to bring the financial side of climate policy to the fight on the climate front. And that is what brings people like Stephen Gibbou or Wilkinson over to his side. I have to say a couple of things. One, I think Stephen Gibbou's endorsement of Mark Carney is actually a service to the party as a whole. Why? Because it says you can walk away from the carbon tax on consumers without breaking

up the party, basically. And that is very helpful. I also believe that the Liberal Party looking at an election is pretty happy to have Christopher Chifrin and Mark Carney as the lead candidates because they fit what looks increasingly like the ballot box issue, which is who will best manage the Canada-U.S. relationship. Both of them are qualified for this, which means this is probably not the year for Carina Gould talking about party renewal, because that is the talk you talk when you're going to lose the election and rebuild. And I think the liberals have started to believe they have a shot at maybe doing better in the election than they ever expected. Wow.

Althea. I also don't agree on the left-right spectrum with Mark Carney. I think it's too early to tell because he also hasn't actually issued any policies. So we don't know how to gauge that because there are people like Cody Lois, for example, seeing as he was comfortable with me talking about him, insisted that I should talk about him. He's not on the left side of the spectrum, but Mark Kearney know, Mark Kearney got Patty Haydew today, so it's a bit of a mixed bag. On the Stephen Gibo, I actually think that was a, you know, a coup maybe for the conservatives.

That was like the only slice of good news they had this week because in English Canada, Mr. Gibo is seen quite differently, especially in Western Canada, than he is in Quebec. And so it was like, you know, I don't know how many conservative talking point memos and emails I got this week about Mr. GuiBou, but even there are caucus members who are like, please, Mark Carney, stop standing next to Stephen GuiBou. So I don't know. I think that can work both ways. At issue, Ontario's leadership.

CBC News has learned Premier Ford plans to call an election as early as next week. Ford has been coy but says he needs a new mandate. Are you preparing for an election call next week? Stay tuned. But we need a mandate from the people. Okay, let's bring everyone back to talk about Doug Ford's calls for a mandate. Chantal, Andrew and Althea. Andrew, what's going on here? Is this really about a mandate or is this about a big, big fat majority that would be on the other side of the election?

You know, I get called a cynic. But you're not a cynic if you're just simply observing other people being supremely cynical. Doug Ford doesn't need a mandate. He has one. He is the sitting Premier of Ontario with a thumping large majority, on which it has, I believe, two more years still to run. He's not negotiating for Canada. First of all, he hasn't been tossed out by his party. He's not at 15 percent in the polls, all the things that are weakening Justin Trudeau.

He's not negotiating for Canada. It's, yeah, it'd be nice if the premiers presented more of the United Front. It'd be nice if we had a government in Ottawa that had a fresh mandate, had a legitimacy of whatever party stripe, but with a fresh mandate. But I promise you Donald Trump does not care whether the Premier of Ontario is facing 30 members of the opposition across the way at you know at Queens Park or 10. And so the notion that he's putting out there of everyone has to vote for the Conservatives, everyone has to get behind me because we're in this perilous times and I need a mandate. It's powerful stuff I don't doubt some voters succumb to it, but it is the absolute epitome of cynicism. He has had a strong outing, though, politically.

He's looked very good over the past couple of weeks in terms of being a leader of the premiers, dealing with the prime minister, and I don't know, Chantal, what you make of that. and I don't know, Chantal, what you make of that? Premier Ford has always wanted, and it is no secret, to manage to go to the polls before Pierre Poilier possibly becomes Prime Minister. Right. And he ends up in an election campaign paying the bills for whatever

the Pierre Poilier government has done. The Trump election has actually allowed him to build a narrative around that. It may be opportunistic, but if you were an advisor to this Premier, you would probably tell him to go for it. Now, if he does go for it next Wednesday, what you will hear that sound, that's the sigh of relief from the NDP and the conservative boardrooms in particular, about their campaign workers being done with an Ontario campaign before we ever go in a federal campaign, because that would be a major problem for all three parties, but in particular for the NDP and the Conservatives. So he would make everyone happy in a partisan way.

I understand totally Andrew's unhappiness, which is not based on cynicism, but on what does see, which we all see. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Althea. Well, I agree with both Andrew and Chantal. I do not think the premier of Ontario needs a new mandate. That's just an excuse. You tell people. He already has a mandate and as Andrew rightfully pointed out,

he already has a crushing majority government. I think, just to add to what Chantal was saying, Premier Ford, yes, wanted to ensure that he has an election before Pierre Proliev possibly becomes Prime Minister of the country. He wanted to run against Justin Trudeau when Justin Trudeau was no longer there. Donald Trump is the convenient boogeyman to run against. And so why waste that opportunity if you are thinking crass partisan terms? Because that is what the calculation is.

And so that's what we're seeing. But there is no actual reason. Like Premier Ford has not been impeded in his ability to communicate on behalf of his province. Quite the opposite, yeah. Exactly. He seems to be doing a great job at the moment. You've been fighting for, you know, Ontario's manufacturing sector.

So what more does he need? Nothing, except he wants the safety blanket of hopefully in his mind getting another three or four years. Last word to you, Andrew. You know, there is that crazy rumor that Doug Ford wants to be Prime Minister one day, too, and I don't know if any of that is connected, but I'm just- How is this friendship? When was my last check?

It was non-existent. I should say. There's also a lot of bad stuff coming down the pike. We're probably heading into a recession. He's got some investigations coming into some of them going on in his government. So that's another reason why he'd like to sort of amscray, get the election done before the bad stuff happens. Okay.

We'll leave it there. Thank you all very much. That's at issue for this week. What do you think about Trump's continued threats? Thank you all very much.