At Issue - Is Canada’s trade war strategy working?

Episode Date: March 7, 2025

At Issue this week: Canada and the U.S. trade shots in a bitter trade war, but is Ottawa’s strategy working? Liberal leadership hopefuls gear up for the convention that will decide Canada’s next Prime Minister. And, how will Canadians remember Justin Trudeau? Rosemary Barton hosts Chantal Hébert, Andrew Coyne and Althia Raj.

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But it's time to imagine what we can do with more. Join Scarborough Health Network and together, we can turn grit into greatness. Do meet at lovescarborough.ca. This is a CBC podcast. Hey there, I'm Rosemary Barton. This week on At Issue, the podcast edition for Thursday, March 6th.

It's just a modification short term because I didn't want to hurt the American, it would have hurt the American car companies. As long as there are tariffs on us from the United States that are completely unjustified, we will be responding strongly. This week we're asking what does a trade war mean for Canadians and how is Ottawa working to try and get those tariffs removed altogether? Chantelle Iber, Andrew Coyne and Althea Raj join me to talk about that. Plus, how are the candidates,

the four candidates, preparing for the Liberal Leadership Convention this weekend? So what does this trade war mean for Canadians? How is Ottawa working to get these tariffs removed entirely? I'm Rosemary Barton, here to break it down. The latest on this trade war, Chantelle Iber, Andrew Coyne, Althea Raj. Nice to see you all on a very, very busy week. Chantelle, let's start with you. Is this a win, a delay, a reprieve? Where do you think we are today? Well, I guess it's a win because we didn't give up anything. And if you thought that we were having a conversation with serious people, I guess this week has demonstrated that that's not happening. But the notion that we're pausing the second wave of tariffs because suddenly there's been this second reprieve actually means, I mean that second wave was supposed to kick in on March 21st by my calendar, and so we've postponed

it by about a week. So I guess that is where we are today, with the sense that we are talking to people who are so unserious that I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow. And with other tariffs hanging over our head, Andrew, steel and aluminum next week, whatever's going to happen in reciprocal tariffs in April. It is hard to know what's going to happen next, that's for sure. We're by no means out of the woods. The one thing we have going for us, I've said this all along, is the people opposed, Trump and his people, are not very bright.

They haven't thought this through. They don't know how government works. They don't know how the economy works. And they don't seem to be familiar with basic politics. It was to be entirely predicted that if you bring in these kinds of tariffs, you're going to make a lot of people hurt in the United States and a lot of consumers, a lot of interests that have been squawking quite loudly. It seems to have come as a surprise to Donald Trump,

or perhaps he was surprised that Canada didn't roll over. But as somebody put it, you know, we're almost in the position of Ukraine having the kind of defender advantage here. You know, when your back is to the wall, when your country's existence, so to speak, is at stake, people are going to be up for the fight. And if I read Canadian public opinion at all, well, people have basically said to the government do what you have to do just stick it to these bastards we'll take whatever price we have to take to do it whereas in the United States nobody signed up for this none of Trump's constituencies voted for him because they wanted to have a trade war with

Canada so I think we're seeing that asymmetry here where the Canadian government has public opinion very firmly at its back, the Trump administration does not. What do you make of where we are on Thursday as the Prime Minister himself said today, this is just Thursday now with Donald Trump? Well it's more than just Thursday. I mean it's the last Thursday perhaps that he's the Prime Minister. It is also, you know, three days after these terrorists were levied. I don't think it's clear to the government, never mind to the rest of the country, what the Americans want.

What is the end goal that they are after? Is this just about raising revenue? Is this about more public policy-esque? I mean, it's very clearly not about fentanyl. And the government has always, frankly, known that it wasn't about fentanyl. But it is not clear what the ask is. So if you don't know what the other side is asking for, you don't know what off-ramp to give them. And I feel like that's the position that they're in. Like you heard the Foreign Affairs

Minister talk about, well, in the meetings they bring up Five Eyes intelligence, they bring up bulk water exports, they bring up defense spending. What does any of that have to do with, you know, cars coming across the Ontario border back and forth in Carpar? It's like not much. So you can understand why it just feels like constant chaos and why even that as a strategy doesn't seem to make any sense. I mean, today, the president was out there trumpeting his own executive order, amending his own tariffs, saying he was saving the American auto industry

and American farmers from the tariffs that he had imposed two days earlier. Yeah, yeah. It doesn't make any sense. Like, I don't want to say that I always agree with Andrew, but I think we have to open ourselves to the possibility that maybe they're just stupid. Well, and also, and we did have that extraordinary statement from the Prime Minister, that the President's, to the best that anybody can parse out his aims, it's to basically just

harm us and weaken us so that at some point people will be so fed up with it that there'll be movements towards annexation or economic union or what have you. It sounds far-fetched, but nothing's far-fetched with Donald Trump. And certainly when there's no, as Althea is saying, when there's no concrete demand, there's nothing we can actually, there's no blackmail we can even pay. That has to be your working supposition, which is why we need to look at this in the long run and say, okay, he's on his back heel today, but he's going to be back.

He's going to have other demands and other tariffs, and we've got to be prepared to tough this out through the long haul. Yeah. Chantal? So, one, I think we did the right thing not to say thank you and we're going to back off on whatever we're doing. I think that was the smart thing to do.

Two, I think that this second, you know, we back off from the US perspective is probably meant to try to divide Canadians or at least Canadian politicians, which I don't think is going to happen given the mood of the country. And three, with the 51st state thing, Donald Trump probably did a service to whoever is running the government in the sense that the stakes are so high that there's no mood out there and I Tried to find who was arguing in the mainstream to say we should be nice and there's no one saying that because he is up This game to a level where no one wants to play in that movie. So Going forward. I don't know but I guess the good news is they don't seem to have much of a great plan. No, and they were, I also think part of it,

Althea, is that they were met with a serious coordinated response from this country that maybe they just didn't expect. I don't know. I don't know how they could not have expected, frankly. I mean, there is nothing in the government's game plan that has changed in the last six to eight weeks. You know, so the government was told that this was coming and they planned for it, and even the amount of money, I believe, is exactly the same as it was when they first communicated this plan to us.

So it's not, you know, they've been waiting to implement their plan. And Donald Trump has been saying, well, there's nothing you can do to change my mind. I'm going to come forward. And apparently there was something that we could do to change his mind, which is to reduce the death counts, fentanyl death counts,

which is actually something that he had already said, or Howard Lutnick had already said to Dominic LeBlanc, because that was communicated at the premier, it was like a month and a half ago. None of this makes any sense. I do agree that by raising, and by the prime minister raising the bar to the 51st state level, it has brought Canadians together in a way that when you have, you know, it's not

just one part of the economy, it's our national sovereignty is now affected. And so the cost that you're willing to bear as an individual, I mean, at the moment, for most of us, we're not really feeling, maybe if you looked at your savings, if you have stocks, maybe if you have money, you have felt the pain. But there aren't that many people who've actually lost their jobs in the last four days.

But in the next two weeks, in the next four weeks, in the next six months, that is gonna be really different. And so by having raised that specter of what that pain tolerance is like, that was in a way really smart because there are more people that are going to be willing to accept acute pain because they think the risk is so high. Yeah, and it keeps the country united in a way that maybe wouldn't have happened either. Okay, that was all very smart. We're going to keep kind of talking about this in the next section, but in a way that maybe wouldn't have happened either. Okay, that was all very smart. We're going to keep kind of talking about this in the next section,

but in a different way. When we come back, we're going to look ahead to the Liberal Leadership Convention. We need a united Canada right now that can stand up to that terror threat. We have to be very clear with the Americans that this action is inappropriate. If I'm elected as prime minister to take the proceeds from our counter-terrorists. So how to break down how the race is ending, Chantal, Andrew and Althea are back. You're all going to be here Sunday too, I'm excited to see you in person. But what are you thinking now as this race ends, Andrew?

And I think, you know, perhaps more importantly, this person who wins on Sunday is going to have to be thrown into the middle of all of this immediately. Yeah, well, it's a different setting than it was at the beginning of the race, partly because the liberal support in the polls has come up so much since then, only I think partially because of the race itself, but maybe partly in that, but mostly as a result of events south of the border. So, you know, it's, they've got a little bit

of a different strut in their step perhaps. Mark Carney has not had a great race, if you ask me. He's not exactly set hearts on fire. There's been a few questions raised about his veracity. But it's hard to see anybody else winning at this point. I hate to just, you know, thump home the conventional wisdom, but that sure seems like the case. I think the other thing is I think there was a lot of talk that,

oh, as soon as he gets in, he'll want to go straight to the election. I'm not so sure that's the case for a couple reasons. One is I think if you're him, you surely would rather be seen to be governing for a bit. You'd rather be putting together a cabinet, meeting parliament, et cetera. And I think you can do so now. Maybe I'll be proven wrong. But I'm getting signals from the NDP that they're not quite as keen on voting no confidence

anytime soon. That may have something to do with them being down at 10% in the polls. But it's... Might just, yes. I don't think it's a given that the minute they meet Parliament that they're going down. And maybe rightly so if we're right in the middle of an April 2nd next round of tariffs. Except Mark Carney doesn't have a seat in the House, so that would be, I think, a problem Althea if he turns out to be the winner.

But give me your sense of where we're at as this race comes to an end. Well, Andrew is right, but it's also because the NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh, has plainly said he's willing to support the government again. I am gonna disagree with Andrew. I actually believe that whoever is elected, assuming, let's say, it is Mark Carney,

that he is incentivized to go quickly, because the conservatives are sitting on all this cash, and they will use it to bombard the airways and try to frame him with the time that they have, the extra time that they have. I think it would have been beneficial to the party to have a much longer leadership race if the prime minister had decided to resign in the autumn, because I don't think that

any of the candidates have been properly tested. The last leadership race was quite long, maybe arguably too long, but the first few instances that we have seen about Mr. Carney, if he's chosen on Sunday, he will be the prime minister. And we don't have a very clear idea of how he would govern, what his priorities would be, what his value set is, how he handles pressure. It has been very, very short. And neither do we have such a clear idea of the others, more so Ms. Freeland, but that's because we have seen her for the past 10 years. And so it would have been beneficial

to have a longer leadership race. That being said, you know, that's the timing the prime minister gave the Liberal Party, and so that's what they have to deal with. Chantel? I think the last thing we need is more months of will the government survive, will the government not survive?

And I have since last fall been of the school of we need a prime minister, pick whoever you want, but we need a prime minister who's got a mandate. It can't be someone who is a future lame duck or an actual lame duck and on that basis I don't really see the upside of coming in with a speech from the throne and all that that involves, because that is what it means to reopen Parliament. What we do need is for Canadians to choose the person who is going to be leading them, at least

for the next two years, maybe four, depending if it's minority or majority. But that choice belongs to Canadians and I think they need to make that choice sooner not later. Yeah, it does, it does seem, Andrew, as difficult as it might be to have an election with all of this hanging over our heads, it does seem as though it is kind of critical that

Canadians get to weigh in on this now. Oh yeah. We've talked about how people are united, but that they get to weigh in on the person and the approach. And I know you're not saying differently. I'm just saying it feels like it's the moment for that, you know? I don't disagree. I'm just saying from the liberal standpoint, you know, they might want to wait, but we'll see.

But I agree with Chantal that we need, I mean, as I say, there's the specific thing of April 2nd being the deadline for another round. And so whether you have to have an election right exactly at that moment, but sooner rather than later, absolutely. And yeah, we need to clear the air. We need to have a clear sense that the person leading the country actually is leading the country, has the people's at their back.

We're going through right now a period of intense national unity because we're right in the middle of the fires. But to come back to the point I was making earlier, this is going to be a long slog and we're going to need to keep the public onside and that's going to need leadership that has a genuine bona fide mandate to be able to do that. Delthea? Well, if we're talking about election timing, whoever's leader is incentivized to go sooner,

not just because that person may not have a seat in the house, but why let a good crisis go to waste? You know, now is the moment where everybody is united, now is the moment where there's the least pain, you never know what's going to come around the corner at you. The challenge though is if you want to put a fresh face on the government, you're incentivized to keep a lot of the same players in your cabinet as caretakers because of what has just happened. And the roadmap that has already been set by the current government is likely the roadmap that you're going to continue because your transition may only be a week or two and you

may not have time to develop a new strategy and to meet with the premiers and to get everybody on side. So I think from a strategic point of view, there may not be such a difference put forward if there is a campaign so quickly. But you wouldn't want to get rid of people who have contacts and relationships with people self at the border.

Yeah, exactly. But that's the challenge about being different and then being the same. Totally, Chantal. But it's possible to do one and the other. Let me talk about the current finance minister, Dominique LeBlanc, strengthened his own right in Atlantic Canada. Why would you want to get rid of someone who can carry a region and who also happens to play well in Ontario and Quebec and

is friends with the conservative premier of Ontario? So it's not as if everyone on that team is not someone you would want on your election team. That's right. And as for changing directions, if you believe, as I do, that the overriding question is going to be about tariffs and Trump, then you're not going to go into the weeds of would you keep dental care for say and how you would you fund it you're gonna want to it's it's kind of a plebiscite on who you want not an election about which platform do you pick. Though those issues could be important right if you're if you're thinking about how Canadian the Canadian economy might fall apart those things might matter to you.

Okay as important as they were in the Ontario election which might be a template for the federal election. Chantal always says good things at the end quickly Andrew. Every election is different and you never know exactly what the public's going to have as their main priority but I think in the current climate absolutely it's going to be who can handle this crisis. We have to take a short break here but when we return we'll look at Justin Trudeau's legacy as his time as Prime Minister approaches its end. That's next. The focus that I certainly have in these my last days is making sure that some of those things have done that will shape the country for the long term are seen and relied upon by Canadians. So how will Justin Trudeau be remembered by Canadians?

Let's bring everyone back. Chantal, Andrew and Althea, it's kind of hard to talk about legacy this early. I will admit sometimes the history looks more fondly on people or less fondly after a bit of time, but certainly the Prime Minister is talking a little bit about legacy. Chantal, do you want to jump in there? History, at least for the time that I've covered politics, has always looked more kindly on prime ministers than at the time that they retired.

And I think for the second time in the time that I've covered politics, an American president has given a liberal prime minister a better exit than expected. For sure. And I go back here to Jean Chrétien and the Iraq War, which allowed Mr. Chrétien to leave and more of a blaze of glory than he could have expected. And I think that Canadians, now that they knew that Justin Trudeau wasn't going to be around for another election, I've seen someone who did not, you know, say the dog ate my homework, didn't go surfing, skiing, and has been on the job for, since his resignation. And that will serve him well in the future, I believe.

Yeah, it is kind of remarkable how much he has still done and will do up until the last day because he has had to do that. And I do think that that will mean that his legacy will be considered perhaps a little differently than if he had just walked away and done nothing else. Althea, you want to weigh in there? Well, I think Donald Trump has given Justin Trudeau an honorable exit, and it has reminded people who may have vehemently disliked the Prime Minister about some of his better attributes.

He has a remarkable ability to bring people together. He does, albeit, you know, I know COVID is a big asterisk there. But on the whole, he has that ability. His tenure has been marked by chaos. You know, Donald Trump, number one, the renegotiation of NAFTA, a once-in-a-generation pandemic, and he has survived those crises well. I think when you think back about what his legacy will be, and he has survived those crises well. I think when you think back about what his legacy will be, and today you talked a little bit about what his father's legacy was in terms of bilingualism and multiculturalism and the charter, Mr. Trudeau's legacy is going to be probably indigenous reconciliation, the environment,

lifting hundreds of thousands of children out of poverty. So I do think that there were gonna be a lot of criticism about how much money in terms of direct transfers the liberals gave to people and how they weren't focused on economic growth as much as they probably should have been. But he has shaped the country in a certain way. And while the liberals did not do a great job in communicating what that vision was

or what they were driving towards, it's not a government that didn't do anything. It was quite an activist government. Yeah. Last word to you, Andrew. Yeah, I mean, it's a government that came in with enormous political capital, enormous goodwill, and quickly squandered a great deal of it. Whether it was through broken promises,

like on electoral reform, whether it was through scandals and abuses of power like SNC-Lavalin, or whether it was through an accumulated sense that it was focused on its own particular ideological obsessions, whether they were worthwhile or not, but very much on its own views of things to the exclusion of what may have been more on the mind of the average Canadian, meat and potatoes issues like the economy, like affordability, like housing, all of which really came to bite him in the end. So yes, there will be some accomplishments, things like the Canada Child Benefit, things like daycare, things like legalizing marijuana, these will be enduring things, those were

part of his plan of government when he came in. But as Althea said, as with many, if not most, prime ministers, the biggest chunk of it is not the stuff that you came in planning to do, it's how you react to events, how you handled things like the pandemic, things like Donald Trump. And I do think they scrambled pretty well. He scrambled pretty well on that.

And that often is, in the end, what is part of your legacy. What do we remember Jean Chrétien for most of all, perhaps, or I remember him anyway, as conquering the deficit which he never even, you know, he was supposed to do it when he came in. Prime Mlle. Rene free trade. He didn't come in campaigning on that at all. So the ability of prime ministers to react to events, to do things they hadn't planned on doing, probably would rather be doing anything else but, is as much a part of their legacy and their leadership as the planned programmatic stuff.

That is at issue for this week. What do you think of Canada's response to Trump's tariffs? Can Canada win a trade war with the United States? Let us know. You can send us an email at ask at cbc.ca. Remember you can catch me on Rosemary Barton Live Sundays at 10 a.m. Eastern. We'll also be there for the Liberal Leadership Convention at 4 p.m. Eastern on Sunday. And we'll be back here in your podcast feeds next week. Thanks for listening. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.