At Issue - Poilievre’s shrinking caucus

Episode Date: February 20, 2026

Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux walks back his decision to leave politics, but decides to join the other team. The NDP gets closer to choosing its next leader. And Dominic LeBlanc goes on a trade mission to Mexico. Rosemary Barton hosts Chantal Hébert, Andrew Coyne and Althia Raj.

Building a better world starts with a better way to build. That's why ADCO is leading with modular building solutions, delivering with innovation, speed, precision, consistency, and a dedication to quality that stands the test of time. We're moving people forward and driving the growth of communities. If you're looking for an advantage and a way to build the Canada of tomorrow, today, think ATCO. This is a CBC podcast. Hello there, I'm Rosemary Barton.

This week on At Issue, the podcast edition for Thursday, February 19th. For me, it felt disingenuine and quite simply wrong to be sitting on the sidelines anymore. So I reached out to the Prime Minister's office and we'll be joining his caucus. And I couldn't be more proud of it. This week, we're asking what does this latest floor crossing mean for the conservative? Plus, the NDP candidates for leader are making their pitches ahead of the last. the vote next month. So what does the latest floor crossing mean for the conservative party? What does it mean for Pierre Paulyev's leadership going forward? I feel like we've asked this question before.

I'm Rosemary Barton here to break it all down tonight. Shantelle I Baer, Andrew Coyne, Altheiraj. Good to see you all. We'll start with the floor crossing, but I also want to throw Jemil Giovanni into the mix as part of sort of the questions around how Mr. Pauleav is managing his caucus. But Chantal, I'll just start with you. It seemed as though Matt Jenneru, for lack of a better word, had been sort of contained, that he was just going to resign and go off. And apparently the liberals kept working on things, and they've managed to claim him.

What do you make of three MPs in about three months crossing the floor? Well, the first thing I make is that two of them are long-standing conservatives. I think Matt Jenner, who was elected as a conservative since 2015 and previously as a conservative to the Edmonton Legislative Assembly.

So these are not, at least two of them, new conservative converts who have suddenly discovered that they failed to take the right path. I think the message, you asked about caucus management. I would say some of what is happening now are chickens coming home to roost, i.e. there was not a lot of empathic, constructive caucus management until the last election, because Mr. Paulia felt he didn't have to do anything about his MPs. He was going to win the election and they were going to be lucky to be in government. If you treat people badly when you're on the way up, you will tend to meet them on the way down. And he is on the way down. He doesn't want an election.

Those members who are floor crossing do not want an election either and they've at least bought him some insurance against that. I mean, Andrew, I did feel, Althea and I were both in Calgary, I felt coming out of Calgary as though there was a page that had been turned, a sort of a reset, well, silly me, I guess. Where do you think we are at then in terms of his leadership? Well, it's not just the leader, it's the party and the leader are both under a lot of pressure. And the pressure is Donald Trump. Every time Donald Trump erupts and says something nasty,

the liberals go up in the polls, the conservatives go down. They know, at least some of them know, they have to, address that, they have to take a firmer stand, but they can't, they feel because the significant section of their party is actually pretty okay with Donald Trump. And so you have this ridiculous situation where Jimil Giovanni goes down to Washington and effectively takes the side of Donald Trump on a number of issues, portrays them as sympathetic and reasonable, portrays Canadians as being engaged in a hissy fit, etc. I'm all in favor of MPs being able to speak their mind, it's fine to criticize the government

of the day, but when you go down and take the side of the side of the government, the government that is attempting at the very least to destroy the trade agreement, possibly to annex the country, you've crossed a few lines. And it's very damaging to the party's brand. They know it, at least again, the sensible ones do. But what actual consequences followed for Jamil Giovanni? Very little. Slap on the rest of that most.

So you've got that. You've got these floor crossings, and nobody seems to think they're at an end. You've got a very divided party. And Mr. Puehever is, to some extent, the victim of the... that, to some extent, the architect of it. What do you make of that, Althea? Is there something that Pierre Paulyev could have done to prevent this or to better manage Jamil Giovanni?

Certainly, conservatives I talked to were very perplexed at why Jamil Giovanni was not being sort of managed better. Raked across the coals. There's a lot of things happening. If you just, like, inside the caucus, you basically have a bunch of MPs. who are restless, who have been sitting on the opposition benches for a really long time. And it was one thing to take kind of the heavy-handed approach of the leader when he was plus 25 points in the polls.

But now he is dragging the party down with him. He is deeply unpopular. They feel that Pierre Puehliev is not talking about the issues that their constituents are talking about. Andrew talked about Donald Trump. That is key up until this week. Pierre Puelev hadn't mentioned Donald Trump. really. So there's that. There is the way caucus is being managed. Jamil Giovanni gets to go down to D.C., as Andrew pointed out, and basically live stream his entire trip. And these MPs are, you know,

playing by the rules, asking the leader if they can go on power and politics, another TV program, and talk to the media, and they've been told no. Now, absolutely not. And a little bit of that loosened after the election, but not really that much. And so they feel like they don't have a voice, they don't support the direction of the party, they don't understand what their leader is doing. He seems to be more focused on like the Twitter influencers than he is on the constituents they hear about at the door. And in some cases, and we've seen with some of the floor crossers, they're more likely to win their seats as liberals. So there's a lot of stuff happening in the mix that is convincing people that, you know, why are they sticking with Pierre-Pualiev when they have

the possibility of influencing things in a government that they don't disagree with. Yeah. I mean, conservatives, the other thing that some of them are saying is that he just needs time. And if he can get the time, because there won't be an election, we all seem to agree because of the way things are going, then it will make a difference. Chantal. Okay, I covered John Turner after the 84 election on the same basis. He just needs time. And And the time that he got was four or five years of backstabbing by his own members. At some point, the notion has gone through the minds of many members in caucus, that there are alternatives to Mr. Puelev's leader and that they would be better served by him.

That vote he went to, which was supposed to turn the page, a number of people said that vote is okay because we're going to lose the next election to Mark Carney, and we will then move on to a winner. It wasn't Pierre Poyovny's time and he's going to take us to victory. Also, keep in mind that Quebec and Atlantic Canada and half of Ontario was barely represented at that vote. So the MPs from those regions are not really bound by whatever happened in Calgary. But when you put all of that together, what you have is a mix of MPs. Those that want to stay, would like Mr. Poliyev to not be there in three years, and those that want to go have a good excuse. The last time you saw MPs do that with a good excuse was the unity crisis

after the referendum. People have forgotten. The Jean-Critzine raided Joe Clark's Tory caucus, and the reason the Quebec MPs who went to the liberals from Quebec on that was federalist versus sovereign-ist. Well, now it's, the good fight is Mark Carney is fighting it, and we want to be on the side of the good fight. I'm not saying that's totally the reason, but it does give cover it to floor crossers. It does, but it seems that then that's an impossible situation for Pierre Poitale Evander. Yeah, I might dare to suggest that the polls might have something to do with it. You know, something happened in the last few weeks. First of all, Pueaever himself got no lift coming out of the convention. So he may have sold well in the hall, but not to the country

at large. Secondly, what had previously been a leadership gap, but not a party gap, but it's to say while you ever trails Mark Carney in the leadership numbers by over 20 points, but until recently was only about two or three points behind the parties were. In the last couple of weeks, it's moved to about an eight or nine point gap. So it's starting to translate, that leadership gap is starting to translate into party gap. At that point, people look at that and go, well, he can't win for us. And that's probably his worst sin in the eyes of many MPs. Last minute to you, Althea.

I want to go back on this idea that there is not going to be an election because the conservatives, many of them, are convinced that there will be. And in fact, that they kind of think that their leader is baiting one by suggesting that what Mr. Carney is doing, by trying to gobble together a majority government through so-called backroom deals, that's why Pierre Pauli have called them on social media this week, gives the prime minister a legitimacy, an actual legitimacy, not suggesting the opposition is obstructionist,

because really they haven't really been, but to say, well, he needs a mandate. And so they are convinced that that is still on the table. Liberal MPs, though, say that is absolutely not on the table. And the prime minister wants to be assured of a victory and is not assured of a victory at the numbers that he would like them. And so he will not call one. But I don't think that's completely off the table yet.

Okay. Okay, let's leave this there. And then we'll talk about another party entirely. The NDP leadership race, remember them, and the current state of the party. NDP delegates set to elect a new leader next month. Where is the party headed? What kind of leader will they choose? We'll talk about that next.

So what comes next for the new Democratic Party? And has this race helped the party appeal to more Canadians? Let's bring everyone back. Chantal, Andrew, and Althea. Should say we are recording. this before their second and final debate that's happening tonight, but wanted to sort of get a sense of where you all think things are at and what it tells you about where the party is headed at this stage.

Althea. I feel harsh saying this, but nowhere. Like, what has happened this week is that we've heard that Alexandre-Baudris, the sole Montreal NDP MP, is thinking of jumping ship to Quebec Salidaire. I told me he wouldn't comment on rumors, but he didn't deny it. And, you know, he fronted the NDP French language debate, which was mostly a bilingual English debate last fall.

And that debate was a, I'm sorry to say. I feel bad. A disaster. Like, they don't speak French. Abilu's had the best French, and it's not that great. And you can, you obviously see, like, how are they going to appeal to the 8 million Canadians living in that province? And, you know, this could have been a moment where there's a candidate that suggests that

in light of the way that Prime Minister Carney is governing, there is room and a need for progressive alternative on the left. And, you know, we should be joining forces with the Greens and uniting disenchanted liberals under the fold into a practical force. Nobody is saying that. And so you have, like, a more radical ideological agenda with Abby Lewis, who's a terrific communicator. Heather McPherson doesn't seem to have been able to lift off her campaign,

and she's the one who's kind of the more pragmatic candidate, if you wish. And I feel bad for them, but it has not gone well. Yeah, you don't have to feel bad for anybody. That's what this panel is about. It is surprising to me that they haven't found the room that Elthia is talking about. That they are talking, you know, why are they not talking more about climate change? Why are they talking about AI so much? It seems like there's space there.

Chantelle, what do you make of what you're seeing and hearing? But they may be talking about all that, but they don't have an audience at this point. Why? In part, it's not just on them. In part, because people at this point, voters are still focused on picking the right prime minister to deal with Donald Trump. And the MDP was not in the race last year and is not in the race. with those three candidates. Yes, bad times,

worse times are coming for the NDP. We talked about polls earlier. They show the NDP dead in the water. In Quebec, Alexandreoulius is the last standing member of the so-called Orange Wave, but the only reason he gets elected is because of his name

and not because of the NDP. The NDP is back 20 years in Quebec as a foreign object. And that debate that Aalthea described, It was a disaster. I have watched progressive conservative debates in the bad times for that party with candidates who were not great at French. I have never watched the disaster like the French so-called French language debate of the MDP. But at the same time, look who Mark Carney has recruited as a candidate to run and build theirs former writing in Scarborough.

the deputy leader of the Ontario NDP and legislature and at the same time you've got NDP leaders in Alberta Naid Nenshi or in British Columbia basically saying do not come and mess things up for us my concern

if I were an NDP member I would be worried that the two main candidates A.B. Lewis and Ather McPherson will struggle to unify the other side of that battle because they are on different planets and I'm not sure either of them is on a winning planet. And, you know, you didn't mention there, of course, Wab Canoe, an NDP Premier who is, you know, successful and lots of people are looking at as sort of the future of something. Anyway, Andrew, your thoughts. Well, I hate to be the odd man out, but I think my colleagues are far too optimistic.

The problem, another problem that they're facing is, for the first time in their history, they're now on the back foot on both fronts, on both the left and their right flanks. So the liberals have been eating into their support amongst soft left progressives. The conservatives are eating into their support amongst blue-collar workers, unionized workers. The NDP is always an uneasy coalition between those two because they have disagreements among things about things like whether we should be building stuff. and I fear that this leadership race may exacerbate that. I mean, Heather McPherson probably has the best chance of holding on to those soft left voters.

Rob Ashton, the union candidate, probably has the best chance of holding on to the blue-collar vote. Avi Lewis, you can well imagine repelling both of them. Too extreme for the soft left, too hostile to industry for the unionized workers. And if that's the case, he may excite a small, hardcore, of downtown progressives on the far left of the spectrum, but at the cost of any chance of the party breaking out of the trap that it's now in. But it also, doesn't it indicate, too, that the best they could hope for right now is official party status?

Like the dreams of Jack Leight and forming government are long gone. That sounds like a hard goal to attain to tell you the truth. If they're going to lose, for instance, their lone Quebec member, Mr. Boulogist, not going to keep that seat. They're not even going to be in contention to keep that seat. And the story is the same for many of the current members of the party, those who are in the House of Commons. So this isn't a party that is drawing. It's actually moving backwards. I saw some seed projections based on polls that show what two NDP seats left. And that's all based on personality, not on party branding. Yeah. And says and does not even

go near the idea that the liberals are still trying to attract NDP MPs to cross the floor as well, which we've heard about and has been denied. Okay. Yes, Althea, quickly. There's one that might still cross, but the others might just sit as independents depending on who wins the leadership. That's the other part that we haven't really spoken about, because some of them do not see themselves sitting, for example, in Avie Lewis's tent. And so he is like the best case scenario for both the conservatives and the liberals, and they'll talk openly about it. But he has the most momentum with the members whose support he has courted.

He's raised the most money. He seems to be way ahead of everybody else. We're going to take a short break here. When we come back, we'll talk about the latest trade talks between Canada and Mexico, as Canada gets a new ambassador in Washington and a new chief negotiator. That's next. We have been doing the work necessary in Canada to prepare for this, not surprising, review that was built into the agreement six years ago. And so have the Mexicans and so of the

Americans. Here to break down what the latest is when it comes to the future of Kuzma and our negotiations with the U.S., Chantal, Andrew, and Althea. Yes, we talk about it every week. These guys made that point to me already. But there are a couple of little threads. I think we can pull on Dominic LeBlanc leading that what they say is one of the biggest trade missions ever to Mexico. A new ambassador in Washington taking up post, the naming of the former clerk and high commissioner to the UK as the chief negotiator, there are some things being put in place here. So I don't know, Andrew, if you want to read tea leaves about what this tells you,

about how the government views the state of these talks. Well, it's going to be interesting to see whether the talks take place. Yes. To judge by some of the commentary, or not commentary, but the off-the-record quotes from both sides. The president's thinking about busting up the whole trilateral deal and just trying to negotiate two biolateral. bilateral deals, the Canadian side saying, well, we're not sure we're even just going to walk away, perhaps, from the table. Obviously, a lot of that can be written off as pre-bargaining positioning,

but when you're dealing with somebody as volatile as Trump, I'm not sure you can necessarily write these things off. He would face a firestorm in his own backyard if he were to break up the deal. But he's done similar things before that were just as irritating to his base. He doesn't seem to care that much. So it's too soon to tell, but there's real potential for this thing to break down. And again, we've said many times on the show, the Canadian side has to be prepared to walk away because we have no idea what kind of demands are going to be made at this table, far beyond trade, usual items of trade,

and we have no basis for being able to assume that any undertakings that were made by the Trump side would be kept. Right. I mean, not to get too inside baseball, but I do think the change in who's doing these talks is sort of interesting because the ambassador is someone who's trusted by the prime minister, is a business guy, the negotiator, Jenna Charette, knows government and knows how to, you know, get things moving on that front. So I don't know whether that makes a difference with a Donald Trump, but it does seem to me like pieces are being put in place to best position us moving forward. I don't know if anyone agrees with that. Well, at the very least, it does show that we're taking this seriously. We're not sitting back and saying, well, we're not going to be serious about this because there's no endgame here. And that is what Canada should be doing. Mark Wiseman probably has a good relationship with the prime minister. After all, he appointed him. But he has no government experience, really, federal government experience and no diplomatic experience.

So the notion that you would go to Janice Charette, who's got all of that. Former clerk under two prime ministers, interestingly, she rose to fame as the clerk, the top civil servant under Stephen Harper, in the same way that Mark Carney became bank governor under Stephen Harper and was reappointed later by Justin Trudeau. That's fairly rare, but also served in the UK. So she's got all the credentials, and I think possibly as importantly, she was by. part of the inner circle that was around Mark Carney during his leadership campaign. So she has, she's not just a name. She has a professional relationship with the current prime minister.

And I think that's probably smart because if this is all going to go south as in fail, you need to demonstrate that you put your strongest team forward and tried, gave it a real try. I'll see. I'll ask what to you on this. I agree with everything Chantyatta said. It's probably not a bad thing to reset the relationship, but I think one can easily view Janice Charette's appointment as,

I don't want to say babysitter, but basically she's come in to guide the new ambassador who doesn't know what the bodies, the bodies are buried and doesn't know how to affect change and how to get any, like, the Ottawa machine working. And so, yes, she, was on the transition team. Yes, she was part of the liberal leader's campaign. She knows him very well. But I think it's also about making sure that that ambassador is giving the tools and

the framework in which to succeed. And so she, I think you can see it through that angle. Okay. I fear we'll be talking about this almost every week until something is sorted out. But you'll live with me. Thank you all. That is at issue for this week. What do you think about MPs crossing the floor. Are you concerned about the future of the NDP? What do you think about the future of Kusma? We want to know all of it. Send us an email at ask.cbc.ca. Remember, you can catch me on Rosembourgton Live, Sundays at 10 a.m. Eastern. We will be back here in your feeds next week. Thank you for listening. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.