At Issue - Premiers take tariff fight to Washington

Episode Date: February 14, 2025

At Issue this week: The premiers go to Washington to push back against tariffs, but was getting a meeting at the White House enough? How Trump’s threat of annexation is changing Canada’s political landscape. And political parties capitalize on a surge in Canadian patriotism. Rosemary Barton hosts Chantal Hébert, Andrew Coyne and Althia Raj.

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But it's time to imagine what we can do with more. Join Scarborough Health Network and together, we can turn grit into greatness. Do need at lovescarborough.ca. This is a CBC podcast. Hey there, I'm Rosemary Barton. This week on At Issue, the podcast edition for Thursday, February 13th.

Canada's been very bad to us on train, but now Canada's gonna have to start paying up. Make no mistake about it, the president knows we're here, he knows we're concerned. I'm confident that we very much have their attention, they made that clear to us. This week we're asking how effective was the premier's trip to Washington? Were they able to make their case against tariffs? Sean Tellebier, Andrew Coyne and Althea Raj join me to talk about that. Plus, how are Trump's threats changing Canada's political landscape?

So how effective was the Premier's trip to Washington? Were they able to make their case against tariffs? Are we making any progress at all? I'm Rosemary Barton here to break it all down tonight. Chantelle Iber, Andrew Coyne, Althea Raj, good to see you all. Let's start with the Premier Chantelle. It wasn't a disaster disaster I don't think. They were able to get to the White House and talk to some people, but how would you gauge what they were able to accomplish yesterday? Well, a better show for Canadians to watch than for Americans to be moved. So I spent the day trying to figure out what would happen if the governors of the Great Lakes, so people who are next to us, came to Ottawa together and then to press some issue. I don't know what the issue would be. And then wanted to meet with as many politicians as possible, so showed up on Parliament Hill and were invited in the

Prime Minister's office building and then got to meet the press secretary and another staffer. How would that work out? Because that is exactly what happened in the White House, except for the selfies. You've got Canada's premiers, those who were still left in Washington going to the White House to be greeted by staffers. I'm not convinced that it was particularly effective. That being said, I'll give the premier's credit for one thing. They have figured out that at this point, the best way to talk to Donald Trump is to talk to people in the White House Because everybody else who used to have connections to the White House doesn't anymore Okay, Andrew. I mean that that's a fair comparison. They did speak to some other people but probably not the most important people

They spoke to a couple of Republican senators and others But but how would you gauge in terms of how we're getting through to the one person who seems to be making the decisions? Yeah, so they talked to the deputy chief of staff and the director of personnel. So I guess if they're filing their resumes, maybe that can be helpful.

The deputy chief of staff then came out with a rather dismissive tweet saying, well, we had a pleasant meeting but don't think that I took anything off the table, including the 51st state nonsense. Look, every time one of our emissaries goes down there, it seems like we come out off the worst end of the stick. So the Prime Minister goes down and that's when Trump started really revving up the 51st state stuff. The premiers go down and what, we're getting tariffs now ramped on top of tariffs so the steel tariffs on top of the 25 percent threatened tariff and whatever

else he thinks of tomorrow or the next day or the day after that. As we've talked about previously it's chaos down there so I am sympathetic to anybody trying to press the Canadian case because it's not entirely clear who you can talk to, who, if anybody, will have any impact on this. Trump announces things, people below him then say, that's not what he meant. Trump comes out the day after and says, that's exactly what I meant. This is not business as usual, to say the least, and to answer your overall question,

no, I don't think we're making much headway. I don't think we're going to be able to avert these tariffs that are coming down the road. I don't fault people for trying, but I'm not sure it's necessarily the best considered strategy. So Dominic LeBlanc, as we saw in that clip, he met with Howard Lutnick, as did Canada's ambassador down there. He seemed a little to get maybe a little bit further. He's built up this relationship with Lutnick, but again today he was standing by the president talking about reciprocal tariffs and going against people who have VATs, which essentially

what he thinks the GST is in this country. So Althea, should the approach be changing if we're talking to the right people but not getting anywhere? What I was struck from what the premiers were saying was that the advice that they were given was basically just listen to what the president says, i.e. nobody has a clue within Donald Trump's head. So we would love to share with you information probably, but we don't have any information to share.

That being said, I don't think it's a bad idea to go down to Washington and to try to build relationships, because to Andrew's point, those relationships all need to be reset. And the strongest relationship that we seem to be having is with the finance minister, Dominic LeBlanc, and his soon-to-be official counterpart. But I think the image of the premiers going to DC, yes, for Canadian audiences, it's nice that, you know, they're united in this Team Canada approach. But also we look scared, like we look terrified. And we are. But it also puts us in a vulnerable position and it tells the White House, well, the Canadians are ready to come here and beg. We just need to make sure that our ask is large enough.

And right now, we don't know what really what the ask is. The yardsticks keep moving. And now it's like now we're going to have 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum. And then perhaps there'll be more because of the review on April 1st. It's not clear what the outcome is that the president wants. And so I think it's understandable that Canadian officials don't really know how to respond either. Yeah, I mean, you have to show something though, right?

Shantel, you have to show your own citizens that you're trying things, don't you? Or to Althea's point, does it look kind of weak to not get anywhere? And so we should stop. It tells stores what Delphi was describing, looking like beggars at some point. Yes, okay so 50 percent tariffs on aluminum. I don't believe that you get anywhere without inflicting pain on the other side at this point. Diplomacy isn't cutting it.

And I'm going to quote someone I don't usually quote, who was Stephen Harper, who I believe was telling the truth this week, that you're going to have to take pain to inflict pain and to keep this country independent from the United States. And at this time to tell the truth, that you're not going to mitigate that pain unless you really want to be, I mean, you don't know what Donald Trump wants. How many times, as he said, he's gone for the 51st state thing. I know it's unrealistic, but it's the only thing

that he's been coherent about. So stop going to Washington, save money on plane tickets and start thinking about at what point the American system, the pain that it causes them, the inflation that it brings to them is a problem because a 50% tariff on aluminum, let's be serious, is going to cause a fair amount of pain in the U.S. Yeah, quickly, Andrew. I was struck by that Stephen Harper remarks as well. We've always tended to sort of sell a candidate to Canadians in terms of what it gives us,

not what we have to give it, not in terms of sacrifices. You can't imagine a Canadian Prime Minister saying, ask not what your country can do for you, or we must bear any price, bear any burden. a Canadian Prime Minister saying, you know, ask not what your country can do for you or we must bear any price, bear any burden. We need a little bit of that at this moment. I thought it was a remarkable statement for Stephen Harper to make. Point one. Point two, very quickly is we cannot be thinking just about this week's tariffs. We've got this guy for at least four years. We've got to be playing the long game in terms of positioning ourselves as to what kind of,

to what extent can he pushes around and what extent can he not. We need to be laying down those markers, not just for today, but for the next four years. Thirty seconds to you, Afia. The one thing we do know about Donald Trump is that he respects and admires strength. You know, in the latest missive from the White House, he talks about the art of the international deal. What we know about Donald Trump and the way he makes deals is basically he doesn't pay anybody he thinks he can't get away with not paying.

So contractors and, you know, the peanuts at the bottom, and we look like the peanuts at the bottom. And so maybe we do need to think about a smarter strategy that shows strength. Okay, we're going to leave this part there. Thank you all for that. When we come back, we're going to take a look at how all of this has caused Canada's political landscape to shift. Canada will never be the 51st state. Canadians are united on this issue.

Canadians have a strong sense of resolve. We're going to stand up collectively for Canada. So what do these changes mean for political parties? How are they responding? Here to break down some of that shifting landscape. Chantilly Bear, Andrew Coyne, and Althea Raj. Good to see you all. I'm going to state this before we start, that polls vary by methodology, results are statements of opinion or intention only. We have a poll tracker where we aggregate things and with that we're going to talk about sort of what we're seeing, the shifts. Andrew, what what what can we take away from the trend lines that we're seeing? Yeah, I mean

one poll here or there doesn't make a trend but if you see the bunch of them together and the movement is of the size it's been extraordinary. Not so long ago it was 26 points, it's now single digits if you average them out. It's obviously this has been related to the Trump phenomenon, particularly since he started talking about the 51st state. The tariffs were alarming enough, but it's become very clearly existential in one way or another. And what it's revealed is a lot of that conservative support that was in the mid-40s at one point was people had parked their vote

there they were bound and determined that Justin Trudeau had to go but now that he's gone and now that the wolf is at the door people are looking around and people are frightened and people are looking for who has the capacity to rally the country and stand up to Trump etc etc and if you're a conservative and you're looking at the numbers in this I think you're a little concerned at what that speaks about the leadership of Pierre Paulièvre. We've said it many times on this show, others have said it. He's a very effective opposition leader. He has not done a lot of work in trying to make himself look like a prime minister, including in response to the Trump phenomenon. He has not looked particularly

strong. And people are willing, if you look at the numbers, not only have the liberals pulled within nine points or eight points on a party brand basis, but if you pencil in the name of Mark Carney as the liberal leader, they draw near, they draw even or even slightly ahead. So people don't know a great deal about Mark Carney, but what they know at this point seems to suggest they look at him as the grownup, as the person who's a serious candidate, a serious person in a serious time.

And I think Pierre Pagliav has got some work to do to recapture the initiative and show that he can be a serious leader as well. Yeah, and to be clear, the conservatives are still leading, would still win an election now, and have seemed to be recognizing, Althea, a need to pivot. Chantel's not sure they'd win, but we'll get to that.

But there is a recognition they need to pivot to something and we're starting to see that. Well, because of the poll that I'm guessing Chantel is shaking her head at, which is the Leger poll that came out earlier this week that suggested actually if Mark Carney was the liberal leader, that he would if Mark Carney was the liberal leader that He would be neck-and-neck nationally, but that means that he would basically win the next election because he would win in Quebec He would win in Atlantic Canada. He'd be very very competitive In Ontario and boost fortunes in British Columbia So that you know the way the seats are distributed the efficiency if the the liberal vote means that that's what would happen.

Now, obviously, this is hypothetical, and either the polling suggests this. So this is the reason why the conservatives are incredibly worried. I'm not sure that it's that Pierre Poliev has not looked prime ministerial. I think it's that Pierre Poliev has repeated some of the same things, the messaging, the tactics, the tone that Donald Trump has. And so if you're looking for somebody who will go head to head with Donald Trump, do you want somebody that attacks the media like he does, that talks about unleashed crime waves like he does, that repeats some of the same things?

Or are you looking for someone? And we don't know much about Mr. Carney at the moment. We don't even know, frankly, if he's going to win the liberal leadership. But it seems like he's a capable technocrat who seems a bit more even keel, a little calmer. That is why I think you're seeing so much of that movement, including from new Democrats, who you do not think would be interested with that, but seem to be gravitating towards Mark Carney's liberals because they're afraid of Pierre Poilé.

So we are seeing the change from the Canada is broken to the Canada First strategy from the Conservatives are going to have a rally on Saturday here in Ottawa, wrapping themselves in red and white, which I will just note. Stephen Harper tried to rebrand Canada Day as red, white and blue with lots of blue on the stage. So you know it's a sign of desperate times when they're telling people to wear just red and white. And all the attacks on Carney, whether he's in a lead,

whether he's this or that, I think that the focus groups are telling them they have a problem and they're not sure how to address it. Chantal? Well, Pierre Proliev had a really good run for not being Justin Trudeau, and now Mark Carlin is a really good run for not being Pierre Poiliev. And there is that. Then there is the change in the ballot box issue.

I don't believe we're going to see a campaign that looks like campaigns we usually cover with an announcement on this and that and that. It's going to be a plebiscite on who you want to be facing off against Donald Trump in over the next four years and forget the past. At this point, bio notes versus bio notes, Piaplaiev does not necessarily come up on top then there's that other issue of the team I Was looking today at my x-Feed and I noticed that the conservatives were bragging about the new set of advertising which is going to feature not Piaf LaLiev

his wife. And I was thinking at what point does Mr. Ploeliev decide that he should feature some of the people in his caucus who could be solid cabinet material? Because at this point it's been him and his wife. We're not voting for his wife. We're not voting for his wife. So I do think that Canadians want to see not only a leader that can take on Trump, but also a team. And I'm not seeing that being featured by the Conservatives. Well, especially when you have on the Liberal side a whole bunch of people that are taking on Trump, whether they're effective or not. You know, those Cabinet Ministers are still there

and still doing that work, Andrew. And they have the advantage of office, and office always makes you look a little more serious and adult. So I think Mr. Poyerba has two things he's got to address. One is, and he's got this big speech, as Althea mentioned, and rebranding exercise. He's got to show some gravitas.

He's got to show that he's up to the job, that he has the seriousness and the purpose to be able to handle this kind of very serious situation and not just be his own attack dog. And somewhat conflicting with that, because on the one hand you want to look calm, cool, and collected, but he's also got to show a little fire in the belly for the country. Yep. You know, he can show some flashes when he's talking about crime waves or if he's talking about fentanyl.

He doesn't seem to show quite the same passion for the country. I don't know if I'm being unfair to him or not, but perception is reality. He needs to show it. He needs to show that he's got Canada in his bones, that he's going to be up there fighting for us because people are frightened right now. Okay, Althea had made a face, so she gets the last word on that one. Well, I don't think Pierre Pauly is not patriotic. I think Pierre Pauly has a very distinct idea of what the country is,

and I think actually the Conservatives have done a very good job of talking about how the Liberals have attacked Canadian history and they're not proud of our symbols. And I think that speaks to an audience, including an older audience, which is the audience that seems to have moved to the Liberals because of the Donald Trump threat. I don't think Pierre Pauly is necessarily going to be bad about going up against Donald Trump if he chooses to do so. The problem for him is that his party is not united on that. There are a lot of conservatives who actually like Donald Trump.

That's right. That's a challenge. Last word to Chantal, because no one mentioned Chris Gervreland through this whole conversation. And I'm not going to. I'm just going to say if you audition for the job of leader of the official opposition, you will usually get that job and that's what we've been watching for two years. Okay, we'll leave it there.

Thank you all for that good conversation. We have to take a short break here. When we come back, we'll look at the rise in Canadian patriotism because of Donald Trump's threats. That's next. There's not a snowball's chance in hell that Canada will ever be the 51st state. Here to break down

how political parties are capitalizing on surging Canadian pride, Chantal, Andrew, and Althea. Althea, I'll start you off this time because you referenced it in the last block. It kind of did bring me back to I hope this is okay to say, the 95 referendum. That's the last time I remember flags being sort of everywhere

and everyone feeling something about them. I don't know if that's too close a parallel, but there is something going on in people and there's something going on with political parties trying to take advantage of that. Well, maybe if the government wasn't so broke, they could mail us each a Canadian flag like Sheila Copps had done back in the day.

It's interesting that you mentioned the 1995 referendum, because one of the things that emerged out of the Leges, the last few polls from Leges, is that support for sovereignty in Quebec has declined. So apparently they like Canada more than they fear Donald Trump. It is interesting that every party is trying to wrap themselves more in the flag than the opponents. It is interesting because I don't think anybody doubts the patriotism or the love for country for any of these leaders or any of these parties. I think the real question for voters will be

what's the tone and the strategy I believe will be most successful to defend Canada's interest vis-à-vis the White House and the threat coming from down south. Do I want a Daniel Smith version? And if so, then maybe that's Pierre Polyaev. Or do I want a Doug Ford version? And if so, then maybe that's Pierre Polyev. Or do I want a Doug Ford version? And maybe that's more of a liberal leader. I'm sure the liberals won't like that I said that. No, but there's a way to take advantage of the patriots.

I think that's where the challenge will be. I don't think it's going to be about who can wrap themselves more in the flag. Maybe not for the BAC, but for everybody else. Yes, and don't expect all those orders for Canadian flags in Quebec. You may see the support down, but we're not having this flag thing again. It also came from out of province in 1995 for the records. If anyone wants to pay for

people to come and wave flags here, we've got lots of snow there. Welcome, Grinchup. That being said, I don't think it's a patriotism test. There is no issue about, you know, Jack Meats Hing and Pierre Poilier and whoever leads the liberals will be less of a patriot on this. I do think it boils down to an efficiency versus Trump issue. And it's probably unwise to turn it into a flag thing. Why do I say that? Because I covered the Charlottetown referendum. Remember that one? Brian Mulroney wrapped himself in the flag. It was about saving the country by voting yes to this. It didn't work. And if it didn't work, then it's

not a major argument now. You don't need flags to know that Canadians are pretty united on the notion that they don't want to be Americans. Well, that's an interesting point when we think about what's going to happen Saturday then at this conservative flag rally, but the Canada First rally. We'll see how that unfolds for them. Andrew, your thoughts on it. Well, yeah, you don't just win by ramping yourself on the flag. But let's not underestimate the emotions that are in train right now. This country is going through something right now. It's quite electric. I don't know if you watched that hockey game of Canada, Sweden. Obviously, that would be a pretty flag-way mix at any time, but that was at another level.

Just watching on the TV, the electricity that came through the TV screen was extraordinary. I was also interested by all the ads that ran during, it's not just political parties. Every second ad was on some kind of patriotic theme, particularly from companies. I remember there was an ad for Kraft, I guess I'm not allowed to say this, basically saying, don't beat up on us. We make products here in Canada. So, you know, this is a country that is slow to stir, doesn't wear its heart in a sleeve, but when it gets its patriotic dander up,

it is something to behold. And if you're a political party, all I would say is, you don't want to be offside of that. It's very easy to get that wrong and have it bite you. So it must be a real head-scratcher for anybody in politics right now is how do you at best harness that emotion towards your end but just make sure you don't get off-side of it.

That is at issue for this week. Are you feeling a rise of Canadian patriotism? Really proud of being from here, at this country? What do you think of Trump's threats of becoming the 51st state? You can send us an email at ask at cbc.ca. Don't forget you can catch me on Rosemary Barton Live Sundays at 10 a.m. Eastern. We'll be back in your feeds next week. Thanks so much for listening.