Bankless - ROLLUP: A New Era For Crypto | Bitcoin All Time High | Polymarket Dominance | Where Do We Go Next?

Episode Date: November 8, 2024

Gary Gensler’s reign of terror is over. It’s ATH week. With a sweeping Republican win and Trump’s declaration of a ‘Golden Age of America,’ the U.S. election results have reshaped the crypto landscape overnight. Join us as we dive into the Polymarket effect on election night coverage, analyze the election’s impact on key crypto legislation, and explore the post-election market surge. We cover price action, pro-crypto shifts in Congress, and big players like Elon Musk and Michael Saylor making moves. Plus, is the DeFi Renaissance here? Tune in for an in-depth look at what this political shift means for the future of crypto. ------ 📣 LEGION | MERIT BASED ICOs  https://bankless.cc/Legion  ------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🐙KRAKEN | MOST-TRUSTED CRYPTO EXCHANGE https://k.xyz/bankless-pod-q2  ⁠  🐧 CARTESI | LINUX-POWERED ROLLUPS https://bankless.cc/CartesiSimple  ⚖️ ARBITRUM | SCALING ETHEREUM ⁠https://bankless.cc/Arbitrum  🛞MANTLE | MODULAR LAYER 2 NETWORK https://bankless.cc/Mantle   🦄UNISWAP | BROWSER EXTENSION https://bankless.cc/uniswap 🤖 dYdX | UNLIMITED LAUNCHING SOON https://bankless.cc/dYdXUnlimited ------ ✨ Mint the episode on Zora ✨ https://zora.co/collect/zora:0x0c294913a7596b427add7dcbd6d7bbfc7338d53f/91?referrer=0x077Fe9e96Aa9b20Bd36F1C6290f54F8717C5674E  ------ TIMESTAMPS & RESOURCES 00:00 The New President https://polymarket.com/elections  https://x.com/Reuters/status/1854093869664837997  https://www.perplexity.ai/elections/2024-11-05/us/senate  11:29 Polymarket’s Big Win https://x.com/llamaonthebrink/status/1854017757588705432?s=43&t=2ZINVXJQKx6xO_6Wiiu_2g     https://x.com/shayne_coplan/status/1854045045806023002  https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1854248877798674529  19:15 Markets https://x.com/quintenfrancois/status/1853336478476050503?s=46&t=2ZINVXJQKx6xO_6Wiiu_2g  https://imgur.com/J9TUNmR  25:53 ETF Updates https://x.com/matthew_sigel/status/1853463874772643926?s=46&t=2ZINVXJQKx6xO_6Wiiu_2g  https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1854281747082477696  32:02 Post Election Winners https://www.coingecko.com/  33:55 DeFi Renaissance https://unchainedcrypto.com/defi-tokens-jump-on-hopes-that-trump-will-provide-crypto-regulatory-clarity/  https://x.com/ethena_labs/status/1854295616907862150?s=46&t=bg7XEx0DtAdxgT9lGVWZ6w  39:06 Fed Watch https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/fed-meeting-november-11-07-24/index.htm l 40:42 $42 Billion Dollar Bitcoin Bid? https://x.com/saylor/status/1851718391889043954  43:20 Global Dollar Network https://x.com/global_dollar/status/1853558740957405362  48:36 UBS Launches Fund on Ethereum https://www.ubs.com/global/en/media/display-page-ndp/en-20241101-first-tokenized-investment-fund.html  50:28 Base Fault Proofs https://x.com/base/status/1851672364439814529  https://x.com/l2beat/status/1853429669204230230  51:34 Roman Storm Trial Delayed https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/11/01/tornado-cash-developer-roman-storms-trial-pushed-to-april/  https://x.com/RyanSAdams/status/1853440809644802159  52:03 Devcon https://lu.ma/0bpju5ic  54:54 Permissionless IV https://x.com/Permissionless/status/1854542280301892074  https://x.com/BanklessHQ/status/1853426117157245208  ------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures ⁠ 

This afternoon, I'm laying out my plan to ensure that the United States will be the crypto capital of the planet and the Bitcoin superpower of the world, and we'll get it done. And the day I take the oath of office, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris's anti-crypto crusade will be over. It will end. It'll be done. It'll be done. On day one, I will fire Gary Gensler and appoint a new SEC chairman. There it is, David. The absolute loudest cheer on the firing of Gary Gensler. I got to say on the week, Gary Gensler's reign of terror is over. It's over, man. And we're at all-time highs. I think those two things are related, David. And these clips that you just heard, that was from the Bitcoin conference a number of months ago. But it's just a reminder for what is going to happen, or at least Donald Trump says will happen, when he enters office on January 20th, 2025. So we still have a couple

months. Technically, Gary Gensler still has a couple months to shoe in some Wells notices. That's technically still possible. Yeah, you think he's going to do that? You should spend that time polishing his resume. I would not put it past him. The guy is getting the boot. He could cause some chaos on the way out. But nonetheless, like you said, the reign of terror is definitely going to come over. And then the day that we get a Bitcoin president, Bitcoin gets an all-time high, a brand-new all-time high, which is pretty exciting. Regardless of your personal politics, You have to say that, like, it's a huge win for crypto in America. Oh, I think everyone listening, you know, I'm sure a lot of folks voted Trump, who are bankless listeners.

I'm sure, you like a fair number also voted the other side. I mean, regardless of which way you voted, you got to be happy about this outcome of Gary Gensler is leaving office. And you said, you know, Trump was talking about, he was talking to a Bitcoin conference, of course. Yes. Let's also keep in mind, he has, like, ETH. He has like $5 million worth of EFT sales. Donald Trump is an Ethereum D5. Project founder.

A defy project founder is the president of the United States, the president-elect. This is so crazy. It's so crazy. All right. So let's just start there. Okay. The big news is, of course, U.S. elections. And it was a complete red wave sweep.

Yeah. Okay. So let's talk about the presidency is the case that Trump not only want the electoral college and all of those from that. He also won the popular vote, which was completely unexpected by a lot of people. know what polymarket predicted, but completely unexpected. Harris would win the popular vote by like 60%, 60, 40%. And for the abroad listeners, the non-American listeners, the way, there were three things

at stake every election. There's the president, there's the Senate, and there's the House. And what Ryan means by Red Wave is that the conservatives, the Republicans, won all three of those. And now whether or not they were going to win all three was up for debate, there was some, the polymarket was leaning towards that outcome. But a complete red wave was a surprise. And then the cherry on top is that even though the Democrats, Kamala Harris,

was expected to win the popular vote and why the popular vote is not equivalent to the president, it's like, you know, that's our electoral college system. We know it's weird. Regardless, Kamala was expected to win the popular vote 6040. And even that, the cherry on top, the insult to injury for the Democrats, was that Donald Trump also won the. popular vote. So to say that Donald Trump and being more right is in vogue is like kind of an understatement. Like the people are looking towards Donald Trump's leadership in America.

The one thing I should qualify is like officially officially, the Republicans have not won the house yet. Officially officially, I guess like the final numbers are not in, but it's looking like they're going to win the house as well. So that would be a complete clean sweep. Of course, Trump in his victory speech called this the golden age of America. He also spent a few minutes praising Elon Musk and thanking him for donating $120 million to the campaign. I don't know if you saw the Kamala Harris concession as well, but she conceded, you know, said it was over. We got a free and fair election. There was no dispute. I mean, that is another plus side in the back of this, too. I would agree. Moving on to the Senate, the Republicans flipped control over the Senate, which was the expected outcome.

So there are now more Republican senators than Democrats. And again, this means that we, the crypto industry, have a much favorable legislative body for any possible future legislation that we want to push through in the United States. There was a key Senate race in Ohio. Bernie Moreno, the Republican, defeated Sherrard Brown. This was very important for the crypto industry. Sherrod Brown is the current chair of the Senate Banking Committee, which oversees the SEC. This is a Gary Gensler spot. This is Gary Gensler, one of Gary Gensler's boss.

Yeah, he has been the major roadblock for getting many things done in crypto. He voted against Sab 121. He has been a big ally of Elizabeth Warren. This was also one of the races that Fair Shake, the crypto, the pro-cry super PAC, spent the most amount of money on out of all of the Senate and House races. Spent like something like $20 million on it. And the signal here is that this was specifically a crypto issue, a crypto race. So this has been called by Alex Thorne, who we had on the podcast to kind of unpack all this, a big shot across the bow for every anti-crypto member of Congress.

Wow. Well, I mean, they literally painted a target on his back and then went and spent in this election to just like make sure that he didn't win. Yeah, this guy, Sherard Brown, who's gone now, was a player in Operation Choke Point 2.0. And so Operation Chokepoint 2.0 lost a big key player today, this election. And the House, as we said, it's looking like that's going to flip red as well. Some commentary from Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase, he said, welcome to the new members of America's most pro-crypto Congress ever. There were 219 pro-crypto candidates and counting that have been elected to the House and the Senate.

That number is a major takeaway for everybody who's worked in kind of the crypto lobbying space. 219 pro-crypto candidates that were just elected to the House and the Senate. I remember entering the bear market post-FTX thinking, like, well, what wrath, what regulatory wrath have we just brought upon us? And that was two years ago. And now I would say, like, we got that wrath, but now the pendulum is shifting so far in the other direction just as a reaction to the unfair wrath that we got. I like this tweet from Victor Bunin, who tweeted out, Crypto 1.

Next, we're going to free Ross, fire Gary, end Operation Showpoint 2.0, pass common sense stable coin legislation, enable end-kind redemptions, turn on staking in the Ethereum ETF, shutter the SEC lawfare investigations, and provide regulatory clarity for crypto. I think there's just a great big, wide open, clear path for the next steps for what we want out of the next four years of leadership in America. We can now get things done. Now it's our turn to actually get things done. Yeah, at least on the crypto side, that that's certainly true. And a lot of question, I think there's going to be a hand ringing, a lot of hand ringing on like where the Democrats went wrong this cycle. This is Paul Graham commenting, so a notable investor,

their biggest mistake, he's talking about the Democrats here, their biggest mistake was antagonizing the entire crypto community. And this was entirely unnecessary. There wasn't some other constituency they were trying to win points with by doing it. This is Paul Graham noticing this. He's peripheral to crypto, but he's not actually... He's not a crypto person. He's not a crypto person. He's a commentator. This is something that you and I had mentioned, like, proceeding this.

When Kamala Harris was the nominee, okay, could this be an opportunity for Kamala Harris to pivot? She actually never pivoted, right? I remember thinking, like, this whole anti-crypto army thing and, like, not speaking in kind of pro-crypto terms at all. Like, it would be very easy for Kamala Harris in the campaign to kind of nullify everything that Trump said by being like, We're pro crypto too. Why would you not be pro crypto, pro technology, pro America? It's all the same thing. And I remember thinking, this has got, there must be a method to the madness here.

They must see something I don't. They must see some collection of votes or there must be some reason that they're doing that. It turns out, David, there was no method to the madness. There was no strategy here. It was just old-fashioned ivory tower hubris that led them down this path. I feel like it wasn't Trump who won so much as the Democrats decided to lose. Like they were completely. not only crypto, but other large constituencies in the U.S. voter base.

Yeah, I would agree with that. Paul Greywall, the chief legal officer from Coinbase says, I hope the SEC understands what happened tonight. On many, many issues, the voters said loud and clear that they want change. Crypto is no exception. Stop suing crypto. Start talking to crypto. Initiate rulemaking.

There's no reason to wait. I think we're going to look back on this election. And Gary Gensler was a key player in this election for losing it. for the Democrats. And the Democrats just not hearing those signals at all from the crypto, the crypto constituency, which they also underestimated. Emily Choi, she tweeted out a headline saying the crypto industry spent over $130 million on the election and it paid off. And she comments, were just getting started. Interesting to know, do you know, do you see the Harris campaign is actually ending $20 million in debt, Ryan? No, really? Who pays that? Yeah. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know.

I don't know, but Brian Armstrong and other Fair Shake PAC members or commentators talked about how like Fair Shake is already accepting donations and spending money to win the midterm elections in two years. It was already gearing up for the next one. It was fantastic ROI. And this is why I think crypto is definitely here to stay. Alex Thorne made the comment. What does this mean? In broad strokes, can you hear that? That's the sound of thousands of crypto and blockchain founders booking tickets to the United States looking up office space.

He's saying there's going to be a flood of founders and entrepreneurs we're going to come back to the U.S. for crypto. Crypto is now turning towards a friendly jurisdiction, which I think is a big freaking deal. Do you remember all of the Wells notices that we got this year? All of those will just like evaporate in a puff of smoke. I think they're going to be gone. So many of the things that Gary Gensler, the CFTC, Operation Chokepoint, FDIC, Treasury were doing to push against crypto and to try to squeeze it out of existence, that's going to. that's going to be not just stopped, it's going to be actually reversed. We're actually going to get tailwinds in our direction on the regulatory front.

And I'll just point out, we have never had that before in crypto. We have never been in crypto. Cryptos never existed at a time when the U.S. had a crypto-friendly regulatory regime. The way the U.S. was internet-friendly in the 90s, I think this is the opportunity to swing crypto-friendly in the 2020s, the first time ever. And if anyone knows a job for someone who is good at gaslighting and just bureaucracy, Gary Gensler, open to work. He's looking for work. Maybe we could ship him to Europe, Dave.

He would fit in so well over there. Another big player out of the election this week was, of course, Polly Market. Ryan, you were watching the election, I'm assuming. I'm assuming you had, I'm going to guess that you had mainstream media on your television and you, in some way, shape, or form, iPad, phone, computer, laptop had all. also Polymarket open. Yeah, exactly. I mean, that's the way I've traditionally done it. You have, like, mainstream media, some sort of ABC, NBC, whatever,

like calling election results in real time. And then I had my phone with Polymarket just, like, hitting refresh. Right. Yeah. I think most people who are listening to this podcast probably had some form of that set up. But having Polymarket open was such an asset. It was so cool to see because you are watching the results come in. You're seeing some numbers show up on the screen.

But Polymarket is just giving you. such a clear picture so much faster than what's on your television screen. Hours ahead. You are hours ahead. So I remember listening to a podcast. I think it was the Daily. And they talked about when they were talking about when the Kamala campaign realized that like something wasn't so great. Yeah.

And they said like it was at 11 p.m. Eastern time was when the campaign realized that the votes in the swing states were not coming in. I'm like, what do you mean 11 p.m? Polymarket was reacting. before 8 p.m. Dude, I knew at 7.30. heavily towards Trump, at 8 p.m., three hours ahead of when the Connolla campaign realized it. At 7.30, Eastern, Georgia was starting to swing.

Yeah, you could see it. Oh, polymarket settling. Georgia swing. And that was the first, like, swing state. And then by 8 or 8.30, I was like, it's over. I can go to bed. 8.30, we realize that, like, if this trend continues, like, this is the Trump victory. And the reason why, it's like, people say, you know, polymarket,

prediction markets all probabilities. but when you start to see a market resolve at the tail end, right? That's an indicator. It's like, it's just there's this divergence in the charts and in a market's like, okay, this market's resolving because you see like Trump jump up to like 80% odds and Tacama, you know,

drop down to like less than 20% and it resolved. And it's so cool to watch this in real time. It's much faster than any of the mainstream media organizations are able to call these elections. It's just a different tool. It's a different type of intelligence and truth. And we can talk about like whether you think

like MSNBC, NBC, ABC commentators are biased. But also when one of the conversations was like the swing states, they're just waiting for the very end to call these swing states, even though they are obviously leaning Trump. Well, MSNBC humans, they cannot call states until the very, until it is completely objective that the state is one for one side or the other. So they can't undo a call. They can't think that it's going. They're more conservative.

So, like, they're kind of handstrung by their own mechanism, whereas Polymarket is an alternative mechanism that just moves so much faster. Shane Copeland, the founder of Polymarket, tweeted out, I just got word that the Trump campaign headquarters literally found out that they were winning from Polymarket. History was made today. Wow. That's so cool. That is so cool. Yeah. And actually, the Polymarket forecast, this is the chart of the U.S. map, the Polymarket forecast, right?

You can see red states, blue states. You see the actual results. they are the same. This is the Polymarket forecast on October 25th. So 10 days ago. 10 days before. Polymarket had the actual results nailed. Much different than the poll data.

If you cast that map and poll data, it would be just like completely different. And Polymarket kind of nailed it. All time highs for Polymarket, some stats from yesterday. Got 20 million website views. It has 300 million in volume. One million concurrent users across the web and app at peak. I mean, it's safe to say. Crypto has a mainstream application.

It's built on Polygon, by the way, which I think the future of Polygon is to become a layer to roll up on top of Ethereum. So very bullish. And people don't even know they're using crypto. Of course, ironic, David, that, you know, U.S. citizens cannot actually bet in these markets. That's part of the irony of this whole election win. Cannot legally, but I think there's plenty of U.S. citizens. Another tweet from Shane saying, with a picture, 2020, running out of money.

solo founder, headquarters in my makeshift bathroom office. Little did I know Polymarket was going to change the world. And he's tweeting out what kind of looks like... This is a janky office. He's super janky. He's got his laptop on like a laundry hamper. He's got his keyboard on his like knees. I mean, hey, that's what a

gritty founder looks like. Congratulations to Shane and the entire Polymarket team. Also, behind the scenes, like you said, Ryan, Haseeb put out this tweet. Can we just take a second to shout out Polygon for handling all the Polymarket load right now? volume's going crazy, zero downtimeer issues as far as we've seen. So there are certain polymarket activities that are all done on chain.

Basically all of the market actions, activities, placing an order, taking an order, you know, all the things that may are going to a market on polymarket are done on chain on Polygon. So both polymarkets like back end, it's back in front end, all of its servers, stayed online. Good job, guys. Polygon, the blockchain, all. also stayed online, probably one of, like, crypto's most trafficked events ever. Yeah. Well done. Well done. Pretty impressive. Meanwhile, in France, I don't know if you saw this, but France is planning to ban users access to polymarket according to a report. Okay?

Oh my God, they would. Literally, the government in France thinks that like institutional trust in an all-time low and the solution for that is to ban prediction markets. Like, very bad idea. And these are the types of ideas coming out of bureaucrats. So good to see kind of, kind of of the U.S. swing in a different direction. Bye-bye, Gary Gensler is a summary. Bye-bye, Operation Choke Point. I don't think we've ever existed in a world where the U.S. government is openly supportive

of crypto. This is like uncharted territory. We're going to get into the markets in a second, but we got a word from our friends and sponsors over at Legion. This is a really cool application. Tell us about Legion. Yeah, Legion, we did ahead of conversation with them on Twitter.

Legion is bringing back, this is perfect timing, trying to bring back the ICO mechanism, making it cool again. I always thought ICOs were cool, but in 2017, you know, scammers, grifters kind of got in. They got bad. They got bad.

We are trying to, but the ICO mechanism itself is good. People enjoy the ICO mechanism. What do we need to make it better? Well, I think Legion's merit-based ICO mechanism is a potential answer to that. They are offering MECA compliant merit-based ICO. So you can go to Legion and you can get a Legion score. It's kind of like a reputation score. It'll measure your on-chain activity.

It'll measure your social influence. It'll measure your death. skills and then we'll give you a score and people, organizations, startups, projects who are looking to raise capital can solicit you as an individual to join in the sale. And so this is like a mechanism to become an angel investor. This is for people in Europe, unfortunately not for Americans, but if you are a accredited investor, then you can do this. But this is trying to open up and add some more reputation to the ICO mechanism, which I think we all want. If you guys want To check this out, you can go get your Legion score and potentially invest in some angel opportunities, if you so choose.

There's a link in the show notes, bankless.cliced c.c slash Legion. Oh, you said it's not available for American unaccredited investors. And that is true from an investment perspective. But everybody can go get their Legion score, whether you're in the U.S. or not. And I encourage you guys to go do this. You can connect your Twitter account. You can see how you rank against David, as I did, and get on the leaderboard. It's really cool.

I mean, this is the way ICO should be done and will be done in the future. So really cool. Go check out Legion right now and get your score. David, let's make ICOs great again. Let's move to the markets. Okay, we got all-time high week over here at Bankless. We don't often get those. So let's celebrate it for a second.

We hit all-time highs for Bitcoin. Was this before or after the election results came in? This was right after the election, like 30 minutes an hour after it became clear that Donald Trump was going to. win. Okay. We got $76,000 on Binance, $76,460 on Crackin and $76,500 on Coinbase. Coin Gecko is reporting this as $76,250. So kind of like a median between all of those. So somewhere around $76,000, like $200, $300,000 is our new all-time high for Bitcoin, for Bitcoin. Wow, pretty cool. Seventy-five. Nice number. Not too far away from $100,000, man. Like we could

see 100,000 by the end of this year. Did you know this, David? Fun fact. Each U.S. election week has set a Bitcoin price floor that's never been revisited. Yeah, wow. So is this the new floor? You know, the 7500, 7600? Is this the new floor? God, look at that placement on the chart. That is a fractal. Can you read some of these other floors from other election events? All the way back to 2012. So the first Bitcoin election in 2012, Bitcoin was $11 in 81 cents. On November 2016, it was $720. In 2020, it was $14,900. And, of course, now it's at $75,000,

which is just a great, great trajectory. Yeah. I mean, according to this, doesn't mean it's not going down from here. It does mean if it follows this pattern four years from now, it'll be much higher, or it will be higher. That's right.

That's right. Bitcoin will be much higher four years from now. Let's talk about the ETH price, David. ETH isn't getting a little bit of something? It's doing great, man. It's doing great. We started the week at 2005. Actually, we didn't even talk about how much Bitcoin was up last week.

Bitcoin was up 4% last week. Started the week, 71,000, ending the week where we are now at 74,800. Ether, starting the week at 2,580, up 7%. 7%. 7% to where we are now at $2,800. Almost got to $2,900 currently at $2,800. The ETHUSD chart, Ryan, when you zoom out, looks so good. ETHUSD?

It looks great. Why? So we're looking at monthly candle, so every candle is one month. We are just like on a long-term floor because we've gone down so much. But man, we like popped right off of that floor. Wait, why does this look good? I mean, give me some TA insight. I don't know.

I don't understand why this looks good. It's like it's just a good looking chart. I mean, I like this one. Over in the Cracken charts, I like this big green Gensler candle. up gets her his fired candle it's going up but this chart looks good to you yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah I think so yeah it looks just this is like how far back are we going and then we're going back like almost four or five years uh I think it looks it's just a good looking chart the structure the vibes are good the vibes are good you know what else is good uh ETH bTC is up on the week really we bounced off

of 0.035 which was very low uh to 0.037 uh and I'm not going to get too excited about one week of green on ETHBTC, except Ben Cohen, we had Ben Cohen on not too long about who says he's like, soon he's going to call the bottom. He tweeted out, I would watch ETHBTC here. If we can get above the 50-day simple moving average, there's a good chance that ETHBTC is bottom. So he is saying the bottom is approaching. Maybe it's here. I'm seeing different people call the bottom around my spheres. Similarly also, Bitcoin dominance. He has some TIA here. saying tagged the upper part of this wedge at 65%, which corresponds to 60% including sables.

Bitcoin dominance has gone high enough for me as my target has always been 60% including sables. Still a chance dominance goes slightly higher before end of year, but I think it makes sense to start planning for this thing to turn around in 2025. Ryan, for the crypto newbies out there, tell me what happens when Bitcoin dominance goes down. Well, David, we get an all-coin season. We get an all-season. That's what it's tradition. Is this what's going to have it?

Usually when Bitcoin dominance goes down, it's not because the Bitcoin price is going down. It's because everything else is going up bigly. Stable coin, or excuse me, meme coin dominance, which is a very rough metric, currently is around like 2%. So like the entire crypto market cap is like 2% meme coins. We've seen meme coins be as high as 8% in the past. So some people are calling for like a meme coin season. But overall, when Bitcoin stops going up so much, when Bitcoin, you know, Bitcoin smash season, is over, then you get an all-coin season.

Okay, okay, that's great. All-coin season, that'd be fine. But David, just for a few weeks or a few months, would it be too much to ask for an Eth season? Just like a just a straight-up Eith God-Candle season. I mean... We haven't had an ETH season in a while. I've been hurt so many times. I don't want to wish this.

I don't, like, I don't want to assume that this is going to happen, but like... It could happen. It could happen. It could happen. You can't go to ETH season. You've got to wait for ETH season to you. Is it blob season, though? What are we looking at? A new a blob like all-time high? Is this what we're...

Yeah, I would say that. Blob consumption over the last seven days has hit an all-time high. So we are consistently seeing layer two's pay for blobs rather than blobs be fee. We are at the blob target, have been for over a week now. In the last seven days,

Ethereum has had a low, but you know, it used to be zero, amount of revenue from selling blob space. It's accrued $100,000 in seven days of selling blob space, which is of course gets burned. Yeah.

And we are just hitting the blob space target recently. This could be enough to swing the narrative, just a little bit, right? Because the narrative has swung in the direction of like, well, ETH will never be burnt again. Because like there's infinite blob space, just not enough demand. It will never like be a cash flowing. We know that that's not true, right? But if the market gets a hint that ETH is starting to burn again, these cash flows are going back to ETH validators and ETH holders, right? maybe that'll be enough to just change the narrative on ether and that'll be a thing that people

point to some hope that's right i think that's right yeah in 2021 the narrative the anti-eth narrative was that the ethereum just extracting from users well now if the burn happens from roll-ups are we extracting from roll-ups who are just you know amortizing costs across thousands and thousands of users i think it might be enough to shift the narrative narrative doesn't really work the same like that way like that. Let's talk about ETS because the volume and the flows have been hot. I think this is the biggest volume day for Ibit, which is the primary Bitcoin ETF. This is Eric Balchunis. Ibit just had its biggest volume day ever with $4.1 billion traded. For context, that's more volume than stocks like Berkshire, Netflix or Visa saw today. It was also up 10 percent. It's second best day

since launching. So all-time highs in the ETF world as well. Yeah, you got to appreciate that. Every single new Bitcoin buyer that bought because of the Bitcoin ETFs are in the green. So that's got to feel good for everyone. We're still kind of waiting for flow data to come in. Ibit actually, fun fact, always comes in 24 hours after the rest of the Bitcoin ETFs. So when Bitcoin ETFs report their November 6th volumes, the November 6th volume for iBit comes in on November 7th. There's like a little quirk there. On November 6th, we had $600 million of net inflows into the collective Bitcoin ETFs, which has actually been a wash, actually, because there's been some outflows over the last

four days. So the last like four or five days or so are kind of, you know, a net wash. Same thing with the ether ETFs. We had $50 million of inflows, which is pretty good for the ETH ETF, but with the November 4th day, we had $63 million of outflows also a wash. I think we're looking for one more day of data here. So check back in on this next tomorrow, Friday, which is today for the time of listeners. We're still kind of looking for some data post-election. Okay, here's the biggest thing, the biggest bright spot, I think, for ETH holders on the week is actually the first state pension, the state of Michigan, their pension bought Ether, ETH. This is the first one that's been recorded. Michigan owns Ether. So the state of Michigan filed disclosures that they have new ETH ETF holdings. They bought Grays scales, mini-trusts, they bought ETH e-Shares as well. I don't know why they bought ETH E-E shares, but they bought ETH E-E-Shars. And notably, they actually bought more ether than they did Bitcoin. So they bought some Bitcoin as well, but disproportionately ether, which is another kind of win in the column for ETH holder. So Matthew Segal

said that this makes it the fourth and second largest holder of the fund shares, again, the state of Michigan. So maybe some of that institutional demand is like creeping in there for ETH, another bright spot on the week. Interesting, interesting. Going into the world of the total crypto market cap, we are coming in at $2.6 trillion. $2.6 trillion on our way to that three number. 3.5 by the end of the year is the target. That would make me happy. That's the goal.

3.5 by the last week of December. That's what we want. That's what I'm looking for. We got more market stuff to talk about, including a bunch of tokens that have been on the move. Which tokens? Did it have something to do with fee switches? Is this the beginning of a DFI renaissance?

People are already talking about this because some defy tokens caught a bid last week. Also, Microstrategie is raising another $40 billion to go buy some more Bitcoin. Actually, you can't say another $42 billion because they don't have $42 billion of Bitcoin yet. They're actually looking to triple their amount of Bitcoin with a $42 billion raise, which is insane. When something's working, you triple down, of course. And also, there is a new stable coin on the scene, one that could be a competitor, could be the U.S. killer? Maybe. We'll see what that means. And we'll talk about this consortium of exchanges that has teamed up against USC. All this and more. But before we do, we want to thank the sponsors that

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Use your wallet to transfer funds directly from a top centralized exchange and taping thousands of tokens across Ethereum, and over 10 other chains like base, arbitrum, and optimism. Uniswap wallet delivers deep liquidity, fast execution, and reliable quotes with zero gas swaps through Uniswop X. And when it comes through security, you can rest easy knowing it's backed by Uniswop Labs, one of the most trusted teams in Defy.

Their code is open source and independently reviewed, so you know it's protected. So why wait? Download the Uniswap wallet today on Chrome, iOS, and Android. And don't forget to claim your freeunit.eath username directly in the mobile wall. Start swapping smarter with Uniswap. Movers of the week, Ryan, if you go to Coin Gecko

and you sort by the biggest 10-day movers, I think there is a very clear story being told. I'll call it three categories. There's meme coins, because meme coins are up on the week. Defy tokens are also. are also up on the week and SEC

oppressed tokens are also up on the week. And so what am I talking about? In the SEC oppressed category, we have chronos crypto.com, which had a well's notice, that is up 17% on the week. Uniswop, which is both a defy token and an SEC oppressed

token, up 15% on the week. Wow. Doge coin, up 13% on the week. You got it handed to Elon there. Meme coins, radium, not a meme coin, but like, meme coin Infra in Memcoin Marketplace, up 50% of the week. Athena, Lido, and Ave. Athena up 40, Lido up 22.

Ave, up 22% on the week. Aerodrome up 13%. Maker Dow up 13%. Defy tokens have caught one of its largest bids in years. Honestly, just years. Okay, okay. Defi tokens catching a bid, which we're going to talk more about. This makes sense to me.

This checks out. This is fundamentals being priced into a market. Like, this makes sense. We'll talk about why that makes sense, but not the only price action catching a bid to. Coinbase stock, the coin price up 30% in one day. An equity, an equity was up 30% in a single day. Coin just started absolutely ripping. Okay.

Well, let's talk about defy tokens for a second because some people are talking about the defy renaissance. So let's recall, defy tokens have not really been catching a bid this entire cycle. For years. For years. For years. For years. Yeah.

So it's like, honestly, since 2021. And the criticism of them is that, like, what are these tokens? I mean, sure, these protocols are producing a lot of value, but are these defy tokens? Are they just like worthless governance tokens? Are they just like kind of like futility tokens? I mean, many of these protocols don't have a fee switch. David, we saw in the aftermath, even this week, proposals to put a fee switch in many of the defy tokens.

But I'm getting ahead of myself. So we're looking at this article. Defy tokens jump on hopes that Trump will provide. regulatory clarity. Some token names include Lido, Uniswap, Athena, Ave, what's going on here? With the resurgence of defy token prices and the very obvious conversation of, well, Gary Gensler's about to get the boot and we're going to have a pro-crypto president who is literally issuing a token on Ethereum for his defy protocol. You put all these pieces together and you're like, well, like, come on, let's be a little bit more liberal with some of the choices of how our

dows are structured and governed, let's, uh, let's capture some revenue. Let's turn on that a little bit. Let's lean into that. Yeah, let's turn on the fee switch. So there's a handful of protocols out there that have a fee switch that is turned off as in the protocols operating at a loss. It's, you know, subsidizing growth. But in theory, it could make a ton of revenue. Uniswap is the big obvious one of these. The other one, Athena actually has a proposal to turn on the fee switch. There's a proposal out there for Athena to say, hey, guys, let's capture. some of our value. Let's capture some value.

That proposal was just published on November 6th. On November 6th, the proposal was created. And so I think there's some thawing that's potentially happening in the Defi revenue category. Also, interestingly, Morpho has a vote, a proposal that has passed to make the Morpho token transferable. So they've been issuing morpho tokens to people who are supplying liquidity into the Morpho protocol.

Morpho is kind of like an Ave competitor. but that Morpho token has been given out to people supplying liquidity, but it's been locked. It's just like you're giving this inert token. But now the proposal has gone through to turn that transferable, which makes that liquid, which means we're going to get a market price for Morpho, which is exciting. Congratulations to the Morpho team. So like, you know, we have a defy thawing right now. Like prices are going up, fee switches are turning on.

Tokens are being issued. It's all happening so quickly. We can add value to our tokens again. At least we're being less cautious. Like because is in your mind, David, is the reason that the reason that the, uniswap fee switch not on and by the way what that would mean is basically you know all of the volume that goes through uniswap right right now uniswap uni token holders don't receive don't collect proceeds from that that value because the fee switch is off it's at zero percent but if they turned it to

like what you know 10 basis points or something which has been discussed 10 15 basis points something like that then a portion that that amount times all of the volume on uniswap would be generated in cash like ether some some other cash usDC something and directed to the uh the uniswop unitoken treasury right and then from there it could do whatever you want with it it could be stripped it yeah it could be it's it looks more like a protocol equity at that point because you can distribute all of those which is a trigger word under the gonzler campaign yeah but we can say it now we don't have to whisper it anymore is is this what has been blocking the fee switch on on tokens like uniswap do you think it's just purely regulatory. We don't want to yet another Wells notice. We don't want

on the SEC kind of like, you know, bringing Dow token holders to court on an individual basis. Do you think this is the reason why there has been no fee switch historically? I don't think this accounts for 100% of the reason, but I do think it's a very large, like, chunk of the reason. There's the issue of like the equity versus token misalignment and VC investors misalignment with a token, but VCs might have been using like the regulatory landscape, the hostile regulatory landscape as an excuse, and so that excuse is gone now. We're entering new territory here, so we kind of have to see. Overall, I would say, I've been calling this like the middle of the market hollowing over

the last two years because Gary Gensler and the SEC campaign and just a hostile choke 2.0 and just hostile regulatory environment has hollowed out the middle of the market and put a lot of value into Bitcoin, which has no regulatory concerns, and then a lot of value into meme coins, which also have no regulatory concerns. But if you are trying to be a project founder, a token founder, and provide value and create value in your token, then you're getting just the cudgel of the SEC. And so the middle of the market has had this hollowing out that I'm hoping is restored because that is where a lot of the growth from crypto comes from. I completely agree with you. I mean, we saw this in the early days of compound in the initial defy summer of 2020, right?

this idea of a protocol network revenue, right? And the idea of a token behind a protocol network being a form of network equity that generates cash flows and it being sort of an equity type instrument. I feel like I don't have to whisper that anymore because the reason you can't say equity is because Gary Gensler's like, oh, did you say equity? That's mine. Where's your 10-8? Here's a Wells notice. Yeah, here's a Wells notice for even like speaking the words. And some of that is now gone. We'll have to see how this shakes. out, but I think that's what the market is largely reacting to. Okay, so that is all of the crypto markets. We're going to zoom out now, and Ryan's going to walk us through the Fed.

Ryan, what's going on with the Fed? Yeah, so apparently today at the time of recording, we don't know whether the Fed has indeed cut rates, but everyone is projecting that they will. Cut rates by another 25 basis points that's priced in, basically, in the FOMC meeting. Another cut is expected by markets in December. So I think bankless listeners should know by now what Powell has done, but that's the anticipation at the time of recording. He's basically said, I'm going to stay apolitical. I'm, you know, the Fed is independent. We're just sticking to the plan. Election outcomes don't matter to me. We're going to stick to the plan of continuing to cut rates. So that's going on, which means easy money type policy. Also, David, in China,

there is a lot of money printing that is expected. We have Arthur Hayes in the podcast. who kind of walks through the Chinese real estate property bubble and the stimulus outcome that he anticipates on the back of this that could range into the $1.4 trillion range. That could be starting to come into play soon. So we got the Fed with easy money. We've got China with massive projected stimulus that looks like that's going to be a money cannon. And then you have regulatory tailwinds in our favor, which is what we've been talking about for the

entire first half of this episode. So you have the Fed, you have China, the summary's got to be bullish crypto because we now have regulatory wins in our favor as well. All this feels like it could be a good end of the year and a fantastic setup for 2025. Right. You know who else is trying to get into the printing game? Who's that? Are you launching a coin? I'm not launching a coin. Micro Strategy plans to just print more micro strategy stock in order to raise $42 billion to buy more Bitcoin. Ryan, Pop Quiz. How much Bitcoin does Micros Strategy currently have? It can't be $42 billion.

What does he have like 1% of all Bitcoin? So whatever the multiple is on that. Does he have 1%. He has 1.2% of Bitcoin. Which is clocking him in at $19 billion of Bitcoin. He would like $42 more billion of Bitcoin. We say him. But of course, it's micro strategy holders of which, you know, like Michael Saylor, of course,

is the chief holder of. Wow, that's a lot. That's a lot of Bitcoin. This actually happened last week, but we did the roll up a week a day early last week. So he plans to raise this over the next three years in the so-called 2021-21 plan consists of $21 billion of equity raises and $21 billion of debt offerings in order to raise what comes to $42 billion to buy more Bitcoin. He just loves it. Can't get enough Bitcoin. Honestly, like, how can you compete with that?

Bitcoin just has this like infinite bid from micro strategy. And for some reason, he can just make more money out of thin air. How do you, how does he do this? Yeah, it's pretty smart. I mean, there are a few business models like this, like in crypto that work so well. One is the micro strategy thing that Michael Saylor's pulling the other is Tether, where they're just like printing money on like the spread between their stable coin and the interest rates. I mean, these are pretty good crypto businesses that won't last.

forever, but it's, he got to get him now. Like, this is leverage, though. And I don't know how much, how it's possible for him to have so much debt and just get more debt. He just keeps on getting more debt. It just totally works as long as Bitcoin is going on. We just said at the top of this episode, four years, is Bitcoin going to be higher or lower, David?

Yeah. So if it's going higher, then he's, there's no way he can't make money. I mean, I wish I had just, so I don't even know what microchristry. I sell software. I wish I had some just generic company. You wish you had a public company. We could take a bankless public. It could be a media company.

And all it does is just like buys ETH. Wait, could we do that? Yeah, we totally could. Why haven't we done that? That's a lot of work, dude. All right, we'll take that. We'll talk about that offline. The Global Dollar Stable Coin Network introducing this,

a brand new network, stablecoin network, trying to compete with USDC. I think that's the implied premise here. But it's like a collection of different institutions, Anchorage, bullish, Galaxy, Cracken, Paxos, and Robin Hood, are all teaming up to issue USDG, the global dollar stablecoin network trying to take on USC with one secret trick up their sleeve. What's the trick? What's the trick? What's the trick that they can think that they can take and penetrate the USC market? which is just like how you said with Tether, Ryan, like the Tether company issues Tether,

they dollar stable coin with no yield, gives out to the market, they take all of that money, they put it into treasuries, they collect the yield of the treasuries. Circle does the same exact thing. It's the same business model for Circle. Right.

The global dollar network is providing a solution where partners, people who are issuing the global dollar, can receive 100% of the yields generated by the assets that prop up USDG. And so they are opening up the ability to issue USDG. I'm assuming you have to like join the consortium. It's not permissionless. But if you're an institution, you could be like let in and

you could issue the USDG. And then for the share of USDAG that you issue, you get a pro rata kickback of all the yields generated by the treasuries. Okay. So it's like this consortium trying to compete with USDC and circle. And so I guess if you you're like Robin Hood, you'd be more incented to do trading pairs on the Robin Hood app in this new global dollar network stable coin. Because why? Because you get a portion of all of the interest like proceeds on that. You become a part owner of the network for all of the activity of USCG that you create. Yeah. Whereas with USC, you wouldn't, you know, you don't get that cut.

You're just behold into circle. I mean, that makes sense. Makes sense. Yeah. Here it is global. It doesn't imply that users of this. USDG will actually get into that interest. In either case, users get nothing. Because that would be a security. Because that is an illegal. If you either circle or USDG sent the yields from the treasuries over to the users of the stable coins, that would be a security.

So you can't have it. Even if Gary Gensler's out, we can't have it, David? I thought we'd get all the things now. We would still need some like reform at the SEC in order to do that. All right. What do we have coming up? Coming up next, a brand new competitor to Black Rock's Buildil, fund has entered Ethereum's block space, which $3.5 trillion asset manager is the issuer and what

is it issuing? Base, the chain has shipped fraud proofs. So Ethereum's layer twos are continuing to mature. And also, DevCon is happening next week. Right after this rollup, I'm getting on a flight. So what to expect out of Ethereum's biggest conference, all of that and more. But first, I'm going to talk about some of these fantastic sponsors that make this show possible. New projects are coming online to the Mantle Layer 2 every single week. Why is this happening? Maybe it's because Mantle has been on the frontier of Layer 2. 2 design architecture since it first started building Mantle DA powered by technology from eigen-DA. Maybe it's because users are coming onto the mantle layer 2 to capture some of the

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What is UBS? It's a $3.5 trillion asset manager financial services company. One of the largest private banks in the world. They are launching U.Mint, which is UBS, USD, the money market investment fund token on Ethereum. Wow, that's a mouthful. It didn't disclose what financial instruments make up this fund, but I think you could imagine something comparable to BlackRock's build fund. It's probably denominated in a dollar and it probably gives you yield. This is so cool.

Remember when BlackRock did this, we said the take was basically, okay, this is BlackRock opening up a money market branch, bank branch on Ethereum. This is exactly what UBS is now doing. So this is going to be their UBS money market bank branch on Ethereum where you put in, you know, a staple coin, you get treasuries on the other side, and it all kind of works in smart contracts. Very bullish, I think, for Ethereum the network. That happened last week, and like people were barely talking about it because of everything else that was going on. But this is very long-term bullish. We should check in on tokenized

treasuries because look at this, David. This is a tokenized treasury since, I guess, the beginning of 2023, where they were effectively zero. And now they are just under $2.5 billion. on chain. And that is growing quickly. This has grown far faster than stable coins have in like this sector. Of course, it's still far lower, but like tokenized treasuries are becoming a thing on chain. Yeah. $3 billion of total tokenized real world assets.

It's grown of 4% in the last 30 days. This is definitely harder to grow than stable coins because there's just a more diverse set. There's just non-fundable, like a lot of different things. More regulatory crap. Yeah. Yeah. But nonetheless, the flow is inevitable. Everything is coming on chain.

Base shipped fault proofs. So anyone can now participate in submitting a fault proof to base. This is now permissionless. False proofs have two important capabilities. Permissionless proposals and permissionless challenges. Base now has both of those. And this almost gets them to stage one. They are not quite there.

They need to set up a security council, which is, I mean, relatively trivial. that's on a technical challenge. And then also as contracts are currently still instantly upgradable. So once a security council comes in, and then also once they have a like a seven-day delay on a on the upgradable contracts, then base will become stage one. And I would say like both of those are not engineering challenges. Both of those are just like technical implementations.

Yeah, almost like social and technical implementations. Social implementation. And that means, by the way, Vitalik can talk about them next year. Remember he said, I'm not going to talk about your roll up unless it's stage one starting. in 2025. So I guess maybe he'll soon be able to talk about base. The other stage one L2s right now are Arbitrum 1, OP Maynett.

Also the old legacy ZK. Sink Light. For those paying attention to Roman Storm and one of the developers of Tornado Cash, his trial has been delayed until April. So that's the update there. Well, that'll be post-Trump coming to office. Interesting.

Interesting. Would that change anything? I don't know. The DOJ is so separate. I don't think it changes anything, but I mean, if you're freeing Ross, I don't know. That's a little bit of a Hail Mary, but it's a hill Mary. It's a little bit of a Hail Mary. Yeah, Hail Mary. Okay, David, you are getting ready to board a flight to bank off. That's right. You are going to DevCon. What's happening at DevCon?

DevCon. It is Ethereum's largest conference. One of the, one of the largest conferences, other than Bitcoin conference. It's probably the second largest conference. It happens all over the world. It's like sold out, right? I mean, it's doing well. Yeah, yeah. It was one of the most attended. Yeah, like I said, one of the most attended. It stands for developer conference. So it's like more on the technical side of things, but everyone in Ethereum goes. Last year it happened in Bogota, Columbia.

This time is happening in Bangkok, Thailand. I've never been to Asia. So I'm about to get on a goddamn 17-hour flight. What's the feel of this conference, like versus others you've been to? Is it kind of technical? Is it kind of nerdy? It's techno-optimist, for sure, techno-optimist. Okay.

It is nerdy. It is very nerdy. I mean, last year we were talking about, like, roll up decentralization. This was 18 months ago. A lot of, like, public goods funding type of things, identity. It's definitely one of the more, it's the largest and most nerdy Ethereum conference. I mean, it's one of the, it's the one of two conferences organized by the Ethereum Foundation. The other one being deaf-acted.

It's kind of researchy. Yeah. But, like, there's lots of side events. So a lot of the apps and L-2s will be there as well. everybody in Ethereum kind of shows up. Yeah, it's kind of like an Ethereum Dern Festival. So I'm going to be at home. And Bankless Summit is also happening on the Saturday after DevCon.

So did we just roll out the agenda for Bankless Summit? We did. So Bankless Summit is going to be where DevCon is mostly technical. Bankless Summit is going to be more like TED Talks presentations. Ted Talks for Ethereum, much less technical. And also, ETHI asset has historically not had too much. presence and content terms at DevCon. Yeah.

The EF doesn't pump EAT does it? No, they don't. They do not pump ETH. The last Bogota devCon, the only talk about ether of the asset was given by Justin Drake on the main stage and the whole rest of the conference had nothing. So the bankless summit is the unofficial ether the asset track, is what I'm calling it. Yeah.

Also in head conference, it's an ETHIS money conference, isn't it? It's an ETHISM money conference, yeah. But we also have dissenters, dissenters like Max Resnick and Eric Wall. Eric Wall's talk title is called Going Bankrupt on Ethereum, how the Rollopscentric Roadmap Bankrupt for my first company. But it's going to be entertaining. It's going to be great. M-Team from Spire is talking about based roll-ups and Eth Value Accrual.

Mike Norder is talking about his talk title is called the ticker of Eith. The ticker is ETH. Yeah, it's going to be pretty great. So listener, if you are not a bankless citizen, Community 30 will get you 30% off the Bankless Summit. If you are a bankless citizen, you will get 75% off with a code that is in the Bankless Summit, Discord. channel or on the perks page. But that is not all for conferences, Ryan, because

permissionless four just got announced, where is it going to be? Where is it going to be? USA. Well, it's always in the United States. It is in Brooklyn, which means I don't have to go anywhere and you have to come here. Man, that feels like a David Hoffman bribe there. How'd you get that done, huh? Well, both Mike and Yano from Blockworks are also Brooklyn natives. So actually, you're the only one who's not. That's, it's just a simple train right away, though. I love it.

Yeah, you don't even have to take a play. I'm very happy about Brooklyn. That's fantastic. Permissionless is the United States conference. Actually, like, there's all the other New York conferences have just left. Consensus now in Austin. Oops. Shouldn't have done that.

Permission list just taking the free real estate that is New York. Yeah. Especially when the pendulum shifts back into United States because of our much more favorable regulatory environment, that's definitely coming. That's going to be pretty hot. This is in June. of 2025, so mark your calendars. June 2025.

All right. There we go. Big week, all-time high week. Lots going on, as usual. Got to end with this, of course. You know crypto is risky. You could lose what you put in, but we are headed west. This is the frontier.

It's not for everyone. But we're glad you're with us on the bankless journey. Thanks a lot.