Bankless - ROLLUP: Chaotic Era | Oil, Jobs, Credit | Nasdaq x Kraken | BlackRock Staked ETH | Roman Storm Retrial

Episode Date: March 13, 2026

Ryan and David break down a week where war hit markets, and the safe-haven playbook broke down. Oil spiked, gold failed, bonds sold off, the dollar caught the flight to safety, and crypto somehow bounced right through it. Then they unpack Trump’s public pressure campaign against banks over stablecoin yield, Kraken’s historic Fedwire breakthrough, and why crypto is starting to look less like an outsider and more like part of the financial core. Plus: Anthropic vs. the Pentagon, Erik Voorhees’ private AI push with Venice, fresh Aave governance drama, ZachXBT helping catch the $46M government crypto thief, and the New York Times calling crypto dead right on schedule. --- 📣FIGURE | CRYPTO-BACKED LOANS & ~9% RWA YIELD https://bankless.cc/Figure --- BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🔮POLYMARKET | #1 PREDICTION MARKET https://bankless.cc/polymarket-podcast  🪐GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/galaxy-podcast  🏅BITGET TRADFI | TRADE GOLD WITH USDT https://bankless.cc/bitget 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | ONCHAIN INSIGHTS https://thedefireport.io/bankless 🐇MEGAETH | 1ST REAL-TIME BLOCKCHAIN https://bankless.cc/megaeth --- TIMESTAMPS & RESOURCES 0:00 Intro 3:22 Chaotic Era: 3 Signals Driving Markets https://imgur.com/UirRpZD https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HDEnyQQWwAAbwf1.jpg https://x.com/TheSalonDon/status/2031478190741328334 https://polymarket.com/event/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-march/?via=bankless https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW https://imgur.com/a/I13P5gv https://www.tradingview.com/chart/1CDu50yK/ https://www.tradingview.com/chart/1CDu50yK/ https://x.com/byheatherlong/status/2029914129654501425 https://x.com/TKL_Adam/status/2029655785282887772 https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2031714633581469751 https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-by-end-of-2026/?via=bankless https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/jpmorgan-limits-private-credit-lending https://x.com/adamscochran/status/2031718465044701376 https://www.reuters.com/business/blackrock-limits-withdrawals-private-credit-fund-redemptions-mount-2026-03-06 20:44 Kraken + Nasdaq: Tokenized Stocks https://x.com/fintechfrank/status/2030979714001621138 https://x.com/krakenfx/status/2030964578117398617 https://x.com/xStocksFi/status/2030963704024740126 https://x.com/markchadwickx/status/2031068859101565118 https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/2030988246864286036 25:33 DOJ Retries Tornado Cash Developer Roman Storm & Treasury Report on Crypto Privacy & Mixers https://x.com/amandatums/status/2031176790484374012 https://x.com/rstormsf/status/2031204201418883256 https://www.bankless.com/read/jay-claytons-crypto-war https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/2030995739795472464 https://x.com/L0laL33tz/status/2031025281532645838 https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/246/GENIUS-Act-Illicit-Finance-Innovation-Congressional-Report-March-2026.pdf https://x.com/theragetech/status/2031349077342859477 36:39 SEC + CFTC Coordination https://x.com/SECGov/status/2031830716628029565 https://x.com/SECPaulSAtkins/status/2031834357082832949 39:05 BlackRock Launches Staked ETH ETF ($ETHB) https://x.com/Bankless/status/2032108386938929322 https://www.ishares.com/us/products/348532/ishares-staked-ethereum-trust-etf 42:10 Across Protocol DAO → C-Corp Proposal https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/across-protocol https://x.com/hal2001/status/2031737518505537907 https://x.com/RyanSAdams/status/2031831233722999111 https://x.com/defiignas/status/2031761413006626934 46:58 Polymarket + Palantir Partnership https://x.com/shayne_coplan/status/2032108237932159113 49:31 AI Backlash & Data Center Moratorium https://x.com/SenSanders/status/2031868041940660673  https://x.com/nick_field90/status/2030700617295860074 https://fortune.com/2026/03/09/ai-opinion-poll-democrats-iran-war-president-donald-trump https://x.com/brianstelter/status/2030635638823801333 https://x.com/kevinroose/status/2031397522590282212 55:52 Closing & Disclaimers --- Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures

Bankless Nation is the second week of March. It's time for the bankless weekly roll-up. We got some jittery markets today. You know, Vitalik... We got a jittery world. Yeah, jittery world. You know, Vitalik calls this the chaotic era. I saw him tweet something about that this week.

I think that's... We've moved from the stable era to the chaotic era. We're feeling that in the markets. Wars, we got AI, just overall jitters in the market. There's three things, though, we're paying attention to. We're going to talk about them. Oil, jobs, private credit, and how all those things affect crypto. Lots of big announcements on the crypto side of things as well.

Crackin and the NASDAQ announced a partnership to issue and trade real tokenized stocks, not the fake ones, the real ones, on which chains, a few chains are going to be the winners here. And also, breaking news, as of today, BlackRock has released its long-awated, staked E-T-S. Finally, wow. Just in the phase of the market where no one cares. So we're going to talk about how to – we're going to pop up in the hood. talk about how that works, what are the fees, what's the stake rate, how all of that is going on the week.

There's also some disappointing news on the week. The DOJ has decided it wants to retry the tornado cash case with Roman Storm. I thought that was done. Can we really say America's the crypto capital of the world if we're going and we're prosecuting our open source privacy developers, David, we've got to talk about that. Also, maybe the Democrats, though, would be worse for crypto in the White House. Bernie Sanders has introduced a moratorium on AI data centers. David, we have to have a discussion about the coming AI tech backlash that I think the two of us both see.

You know how in 2020, two and three post-FTX, the Democrats came with their ban hammer on crypto and tried to regulate crypto out of existence. And then crypto banded together and made the Fair Shake super PAC and a bunch of other super PACs. I think we are, AI is in the phase of their political lifespan where the Democrats come and, and try and banhammer them, and they're going to need to rally together and fund. I think they're way more organized than crypto. I think they're already doing this. There's a lot to unpack there, so let's get to it.

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if you want to learn more. Nice blend of tradfi and defy there. I got to love that. David, we got an animal of the week. It is the forbidden third animal. You know the bull. We've been in bull markets before. We've been in bear markets before. We like those. We don't like those.

We're in a bear market right now. But there's a third animal on the screen here. What do we look at? We are currently in a kangaroo market. We've previously had the crab market. I think bankless listeners will be familiar with the crab market. The crab market goes sideways. Kangaroo market also goes sideways, but first it goes up and then it goes down,

and then it goes up and then it goes down. But it ends up sideways, no matter what. This is actually I think CNBC saying it's a kangaroo. market. So they're on board with the meme. Let's talk about the three things we're looking at. Number one is oil prices. Number two is the job numbers on the week. And the third is some tremors in private credit. So maybe we'll start with oil. This, of course, is going on because of the war in Iran. We've seen some kangarooing on the oil price. What are we looking at? Yeah, definitely kangarooing up, however. I think there is a large story being told in the price

chart of oil. To me, the way I interpret this is the higher the price of oil, the more pressure is on Donald Trump and the United States to end this conflict, this war in Iran, because, you know, war increases inflation. That hurts people domestically. It makes people upset with the United States. When the oil price is lower, it gives Donald Trump and the U.S. military a longer leash to continue doing whatever they're doing in Iran. The public also sees it at the pump directly, right? This is price of the pump over the last year. Look at this spike up or since the war outbreak began. Yeah.

There's just been some crazy volatility in the oil market. So on Monday, oil jumped 30% in one day from just a handful of key events. The Islamic regime said that they would be closing the Strait of Hormuz. That's where 20 to 30% of the world's total oil consumption passes through, about 50 to 21 million barrels of oil per day passes through the strait. There were some Israeli strikes on Iran's oil depots in refineries, and then Iranian drones attacked Qatari gas facilities and also Saudi Amarko's refinery in Saudi Arabia. So just a bunch of volatility in the oil market. Then Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on X that the Navy had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz.

So everyone's like, oh, the straits open again. The United States military is protecting the oil takers going through. then they deleted the tweet, but not before oil plunged 20% on that news. But then the White House confirmed that no escort had taken place and then oil started pumping again, erasing all of the gains in the stock market that it had that day. So right now, I think oil is the price that dictates the stock market, the global stock markets and basically everything else. Well, yeah, I mean, I will say, though, the global, the stock markets haven't been responding too much in kind. I mean, we have... There's been intraday tracking of oil.

Yeah, that's right. That's true. But, I mean, since the war started, the S&P is only down 2.5%. Yeah. Which is like, if it was tracking the price up of oil, I mean, oil has gone, what? Above, like, where did it go to? Almost 120. Oil is up 40% since the start of the Iran conflict.

Right. And so it's almost surprising as stocks have not responded in kind in that way. I mean, there's some interesting. volume going on on Polly Market right now when you look at the crude oil price by the end of March. So 4% chance that we hit $200 per barrel by the end of March. And this is on some pretty significant volume. Yeah, it's actually pretty clear, I think. I mean, I don't really know.

I don't know who's trading this. But there is $25 million of volume. And I can only imagine that the majority of that volume came after a lot of this volatility happened. to me it indicates that there is actually pretty clear hedging activity going on or at least some sort of like financial use case of this market, which is nice to see. I mean,

kangaroo market makes sense when you're dealing with the uncertainty of war. And right now it seems like the oil markets are obviously trading on whatever the news of the war is. Or the tweets of the president about the news of the war. Exactly. And the question is, I think the market's asking is like, how long is this going to go on for, right? So you've got some variables that are pointing the direction of a short type of conflict, something that won't persist.

One of them is the popularity of this war. It's not super popular. You might call this mixed, but there's five in ten that oppose the war. There's four in ten that support. There's like one in ten that is somewhat undecided. I think in order to have a longer persistent. war in the U.S., the public would have to start with higher numbers to be on board with

with this. So that's going to be a political pressure that Trump is facing. And it seems like he is looking for some of the exits, or at least he's hedging. So there was a phone interview with CBS News and Donald Trump on Monday. So that was March 9th. He said this. I think the war is very complete, pretty much. We're very far ahead of schedule. So what is that? How do you interpret that? He's been giving mixed messages to the press. There was one interview where he gave where he said, yes, we've basically achieved everything that we've had to achieve. The war is almost over. But also, it could just be the beginning at the same time.

Like, he's just saying both. He's just saying all the things. So he can select later. It's classic Trump, right? Exactly, which is not a bad strategy. I think Donald Trump does know that this, the Iran War needs to be deeply in the rearview mirror by the time the midterms come around. Yeah. There's a reason why they would not have done this approximate to the time of the midterms.

Yeah. And so oil price is going to be a pressure on him. Political sentiment is going to be a pressure on him. Market sentiment will be a pressure on him. All of these will make him want to end this faster. Actually, another interesting polymarket is a U.S. and Iran ceasefire by what date. So a 23% chance that that happens by March 31st, according to Polly Market. by April 30th, a 47% chance,

and by June 30th, a 61% chance. Market using the same logic you did, which is like, resolve this in time for the midterms. Yeah. There's also a decent amount of volume on this one. I don't think the ceasefire makes sense. Because, okay, so the settling of this market says, this market will resolve to yes,

if there is an official ceasefire agreement and a mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement. I bet Donald Trump is, is just going to declare victory. Without that. However it lands, he's like, whatever, however it landed, that was what we wanted. Like, we won and now we're out of there, peace. Like, ceasefire means like a truth to me.

Yeah. Like, I don't, Donald Trump's not going to do a truce. He's like, no, we beat you guys. And now we're going home with our, like, gold medal. Yeah, I mean, it could be. What's interesting is the dollar is holding up pretty well. I mean, we talked about that last week, but the dollar is really proving itself as a flight to safety type asset.

It's closing in on one year, the DXY, that is. Gold is not doing very much either, so it's kind of hovering at the $51,000 per ounce. Crypto prices as well, a bit of a kangaroo on the week. We had some hops up, though, didn't we? Yeah, we had some bullish days. We had some bearish days, and we were just hopping around. Overall, down 1.1% for Bitcoin on the week and down 1.5% for Ether on the week.

Not much of a story, I would say. It's also hard to tell a story about, gold as it relates to the price action downstream of the conflict because gold is on the backs of a huge speculative bubble where we ran from you think it's a thousand a speculative euphoria uh a big run up the last two years for sure a run up and it's it's it's drawing down base off of that run up yeah and that is just very close to the iran war conflict so like those two those two bits of signal are like interacting with each other and interfering interfering is that it's a good word, with the signal I'm trying to get here.

I think crypto, just sum of crypto, I do think we have entered the apathy market for crypto. I mean, you're not seeing headlines, you're not seeing any reaction to news. It's just kind of hopping along. And I'm mostly outsourcing my brain on what's going to happen to the cycle to Michael Nato. I think he's got a pretty good calls on it. Because he's been right consistently. He's been right.

All right. So that's one of the things that's happening. So in addition to oil prices, got to look at the odds of a recession on the back of some pretty grim job numbers, David. So last week, this took investors by surprise. We were a negative 92,000 on jobs in February, and unemployment rate is actually rising. It's been pretty low historically, but now it's 4.4%. The expectation was that we would add 50 to 60,000 jobs, but we were down by 92,000. I'm getting deja vu here. Didn't you do this last jobs report? Last jobs report, maybe. I thought it was like flat.

or healthy. Actually, I can't recall. I thought it was healthy and then it corrected downwards. Well, so you got the, you got war energy prices, inflationary concerns, some bad jobs numbers, right? Like what's going on there? Are employers, you know, laying people off? Are they, are they stopping the higher so? The R word is back in vogue again. It was again, like this time last year, we started talking about a recession. But look at the polymarket for the U.S. recession by the end of 2026. We're, we jumped up after these job numbers all the way to like, 37% that we would get a recession in 2026. We're since down to about 30% on those numbers.

But the chance of a recession, the probability of a recession in 2026 is increasing, given the unemployment data, given inflationary type pressures. So we got that to watch out for as well. Granted, it was higher in November and looks like October of last year. It was at 45% then. So we're kind of still trending downwards.

But it did spike up from 20 to 30%. You're right. And GDP has been pretty strong and the AI boom is still booming. But the thing maybe I am most looking at here is private credit. Have you seen some of the headlines coming into the private credit space? No, that was not on my timeline this week. So you're going to have to inform me. Adam Cochran, it says, if you aren't in finance, this likely means nothing to you.

But if you are in finance, this is one of the main barometers. of the end of an economic cycle and that things are actually getting quite bad. And what he's referring to is this headline, J.P. Morgan marking down loan portfolios of private credit groups. Okay, so this is Adam Cochran, sounding the alarm bells on this.

I will say if you don't know who Adam Cochran is, he is good at engagement and sounding alarm bells. That's kind of like his deal is what he does. Yeah, that's right. But in this case, there is some sub-examination. here. So J.P. Morgan is actually restricting private credit lending. So it's not lending to some of these private credit companies after some markdowns that happened on the week. And Jamie Diamond, so CEO of J.P. Morgan, said that there's some cockroaches out there. He's talking to private lenders that are going to, I don't know,

die. You know, and so. But wait, wait, wait, cockroaches don't die. I don't know what he's saying. He said there's cockroaches and there's bad connotations. Okay, David, there's some bad connotations. And this also comes on the back. Here's a Reuters article. So this happened on March 6th, so late last week, I guess, BlackRock Fund limits withdrawals as redemptions rattle private credit. So what they're referring to is a Black Rock Fund in the private credit industry that just said, okay, we got to cease redemptions, $26 billion lending fund, there was $1.2 billion in redemptions. And I had to call a halt on that, all redemption ceasing. And, you know, when there's kind of a run on a fund or run on the bank, And that fund or bank has to say, halt, no more redemptions?

That's not a great sign, is it? Yeah, yeah, I would agree. My next question is, if we are trying to point at this, it's just like, oh, there's a contagion, there's a financial crisis coming. I would like to ask the size of all of this stuff. Yeah, that's a good question, right? What's the TAM here? What's interesting about private credit is it's been growing in the background

since about, you know, post-2008 when the banks were the primary lenders here. So after they, you know, fell apart. A whole industry stepped in, private credit industry. There's groups like Apollo that you've probably heard of. They're funding many of the data centers. And they've been funding a lot of with private credit SaaS firms. Okay? Wasn't it like three weeks ago when we started talking about the SaaSpocalypse?

Right. And the whole idea about why they would fund SaaS firms is because SaaS growth became such a dependable metric that you could actually project it dependably and the models would fit. And so then it's like, okay, well, if the models are working, and we can project revenue and growth, then we can like lend to these companies. Yes. And so that's where some of the jitters are coming. And maybe some of the SaaS companies are actually bad. And 20 to 35 percent of this two to three trillion dollar industry's SaaS companies. So some of the bears like Adam Cochran are saying, well, this is the subprime bubble.

Okay, the subprime credit problem of 2026. It's here. It's in private credit. These are opaque markets. You can't really trust them. They're going to go belly up. The bulls are still saying, guys, like this is normal market operations. Okay, SaaS companies down. This is just a market test. If you look at private credit, their defaults have been pretty good, like 1.9%. That's like really low historically. Nothing to worry about.

It's just a market test. So it's something to keep an eye on, but I don't have any conclusions on this myself. Part of the story of the subprime mortgage crisis, the 2008 financial crisis, was the collaboration between the government policy and the lending sector. And so the lending sector got out of whack because it was not responding to capitalistic incentives. Naively, without understanding what's going on and just reacting to what you're saying, the private credit market I would suggest would respond to capitalistic risk incentives better than the subprime mortgage crisis did.

Maybe. And so it would be naturally more resilient. I don't know. But I don't know. I can just be spitting out my ass here, dude. Yeah, I mean, you have to keep an eye on it, and I think you have to kind of hedge in both directions here. That's probably the safe move here.

We got more to talk about the NASDAQ is partnering with Cracken to bring Tesla and Vida, the whole QQQ on Shane. The craziest part about this is they're not doing it with Schwab or TD Ameritrade. They're doing it with Cracken. This is a very crypto-native approach. Also, the DOJ retrying Roman Storm. We'll talk about that and the implications for privacy. Before we do, we want to thank the sponsors that made this possible.

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This is not investment advice. Breaking news out of the Wall Street Journal reported this, but also a NASDAQ press release. NASDAQ is designing a framework for tokenized equities that would allow stocks like Navidia or Tesla, I think really all stocks, to trade either as a traditional share or as a blockchain-based tokens.

We get both. We get both. We get both. Both versions, this is the critical feature, both versions would get the same C-U-S-I-P, the same Q-S-I-P, which I totally knew exactly what that was before I woke up this morning. What's a Q-Sip? A Q-Sip is basically a social security number for a stock. Okay.

So like a unique identifier? A unique, a phone number for a stock. Like, you know, what's the stock? How do I identify the stock? What's the Q-Sip? Yeah. And so now that we have the ones that trade on NASDAQ, and we need the same things to also trade on public blockchains, they need to have the same Coups.

And that's the unlocked. So it's all registered with the DTTC, right? DTCC, yes. DTC. Thank you. God, these acronyms. Yes, right. What is Crackin?

What is Crack's role in this? I'm glad you asked. Yeah. So NASDAQ does all of the stuff on the NASDAQ exchange. Yes. Crackin will be doing all the stuff on the blockchains. Ah, that's cool. They have their X stocks token format, like token tech stack for

doing this. It started on Solana. It's now on Ethereum, Tron, Ton as well. X-Stox is. X-Ox is. Yeah. And so NASDAQ is just using Krakens X-Stox, tech stack, to distribute stocks as tokens on

blockchains. Okay. Yeah. I mean, so the big winners of this, I think in crypto, clearly it's Krakens. Clearly, X-Dox, which is a third party that's partnered with Krakhan around this. Also, some of the chains involved, Solana, Ethereum, maybe some of the other chains that you mentioned to, chain link doing the Oracle stuff.

So there's some winners here from a crypto perspective. Now, this doesn't roll out for another year, David. So not until the first half of 2027. So big partnership announcement, I mean, the biggest, deepest tech capital markets in the world, some of the most exciting companies in the world, but it's not going to hit us until next year. It's still a pretty big deal. And, I mean, the response was somewhat muted about it.

I mean, we didn't get crypto prices doing anything on the back of this news. So again, this points to maybe the apathy market. Yeah, yeah, that's right. Also, there is just a bunch of competition in this space, too. So, like, they're not the only ones trying to do this. Like, the New York Stock Exchange has their own strategy. Robin Hood has its own strategy. I, you know, haven't heard of Coinbases yet, but you can only imagine that they've got,

they've got to be brewing something up over there. Yeah, everyone wants to do it. This is a take. The NASDAQ just partnered with Crackin to enable 24-7 trading of tokenized stocks, of course. that's the benefit. The craziest part is it runs on Cracken, not through traditional brokers like Schwab and TD. I guess we pointed out some of the winners,

who are the losers? It's old Tradfai, Schwab, TD. It's anyone not doing this, yeah. Who are not doing this. So it's a big move. Eric Balchunis says that this is one of his big themes of the year. It's how tokenization isn't going to replace ETFs, but rather distribute them.

It's actually bullish. This will deliver the world's most beloved ETFs and stocks to people on chain and less developed countries. You get VOLO and Chill for the masses basically. These are popular ETFs, sorry. V OOO. What is VOOOO? That's Vanguard, right?

Yeah, that's a Vanguard something. I don't know what chill is, but Valchunis knows. I think he's making a Netflix and Chill reference. I didn't get it. Chil is not an ETO. It would have been all caps there. Sorry, Val Tunis. I do.

You have to give a tip of the hat to crack it. They've had some banger. Tradfai oriented announcements lately that really do the whole, kind of like the Defy mullet thing of like, oh yeah, NASDAQ on the Tradfai and Crackin in Defi, Nat Crackin on chain. Crackfy, yeah.

And crackify, yeah, well, they have that app. Yeah. And we know that they're gearing up for an IPO, I would assume, this year. And so they've been like teeing up a pretty good, like pretty weighty announcements at their IPO. You know Crackin's going to want to go on the NASDAQ and like token themselves, right? And then, you know, obviously have their own tokenized stock. Wow. In a very recursive play. It would be fun. It would be fun. Why not do that?

Yeah. Can you can you tokenize the stock and then can you go backwards? Can you keep on looping it? I don't know. We got more talk about this later in the episode about actually crypto-native tokens going back and tokenizing themselves and going from on-chain to off-chain. No, no. Equitizing. Securitizing themselves. Yeah. What I'm saying is the bridge is going two ways. in all places. Let's talk about some bad news, though. The DOJ announced on this week that they are going to retry the Roman Storm case.

David, recall for us the Roman Storm case and the first time this went around. What happened? Roman Storm, open source developer of Tornado Cash, the privacy mixer, which got added to the OFAC sanctions list, first ever technology, non-entity that was ever added to the OFAC.

sanctions list because North Korea and other adversaries were using tornado cash to launder money. Roman Storm got charged for building it despite being totally out of his control because it's autonomous bit of software. That trial happened in August of 2025. A federal jury convicted Storm on one count. Conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitter business, which of all the counts was the least serious one from a Roman Storm perspective.

So that's like the least serious one. He gets to go home and hang out with his daughter. And he still wanted to appeal that, right? He still wanted to appeal it. But it's the most serious one as it relates to crypto defy, because it implies that open source developers can be money transmitters. Right. The jury deadlocked on money laundering and sanctions violations.

And so that's good. So that's what happened. Now the DOJ has proposed an early October retrial, even as Roman Storm's existing conviction, is being challenged. So there are two retrial accounts, conspiracy to commit money laundering and conspiracy to violate IEPA sanctions.

Same things that they did once before. And Romoform faces up to 40 years if he is convicted on these plus five years for the prior conviction. So this is incredibly disappointing news because it was completely optional as to whether the DOJ would retry this or not. I mean, the first time around,

it was a jury of 12 Americans, four weeks of evidence, and they came away with the hung jury. deadlocked, right? And so they could have just stopped. They didn't have to retry Roman on these accounts. So this is Roman in his own words, tweeting this out. And he's giving a history here. He's saying some things that have happened since the original court case, Donald Trump declared that the war on crypto is over. The attorney general in a memo, a DOJ memo, said that they are not a digital asset regulator and they wouldn't target mixers for end user accounts. The U.S. Treasury,

you know you're talking about it being on the sanction list, tornado cash. They removed tornado cash contracts from the sanction list entirely. Treasury in March 26, that's just this month, said that lawful users of digital assets may leverage mixers to enable financial privacy. So we thought we were in the clear with this administration, that they were calling off the dogs and they were just, you know, being much more open to open source privacy developers. But it appears not.

one of the people leading this war is actually, do you remember the pre-Gary Gensler who he was? Jay Clayton. Say his name. Jay Clayton. Jay Clayton. Bad man. He's a bad man. He is not proving himself to be a friend of crypto.

So there was a story actually in bankless about some of his history. So Jay Clayton is now the U.S. Attorney General for the Southern District of New York. He's leading the charge here. he's the guy who is deciding to re-prosecute. He was the guy who decided to prosecute the first time. He also brought the Ripple lawsuit together when he was back at the chair of the SEC. Not only Roman Storm, the samurai wallet developers,

he's doing all of this, and he's a Trump appointee despite Trump's pro-cryterrori. So there's a problem here in terms of how can you be the crypto capital of the world when you're prosecuting an open-source software developer? Who's Jay Clayton's boss? Who's telling him to do these things or giving him the leash to do these things without being checked on by at least the rhetoric of the president? Yeah, he's a Trump appointee.

So you'd imagine he's plugged into that whole apparatus. Right. Which has he not gotten the memo? I don't know. Or maybe there's a public memo of things that the administration people in the government are saying. And there's another insider memo of like what you are actually going to. to do. I mean, watch what they're doing, not what they say. Another thing that came down the pike this week related to this is Treasury dropped a report. So do you recall Congress as part of the Clarity Act? They actually asked Treasury to weigh in on AMLKYC and market surveillance and privacy mixers. They actually mandated as part of the Genius Act. They said, Treasury, hey, go write a

report about this. Well, Treasury went and they published a report this week. And, And some people in crypto saw some language in the report and started celebrating it. So this is Bitcoin magazine. They were praising that this report said that lawful users of digital assets may leverage mixers to enable financial privacy when transacting through private blockchains. A big win for privacy, they said. And it is true in this report. Treasury is acknowledging that there are non-lawful uses of privacy mixers,

but they've acknowledged there's lawful uses of privacy mixers. And that's something the Biden administration never did. They were like, oh, privacy mixers, got to be criminal, got to be bad. Didn't even acknowledge that there could be American citizens that are just legitimately using these services for privacy on chain. So that is the good part. But honestly, David, if you read the report, the rest of the report is kind of bad. So this is a...

What do you mean? In what way? Well, in the way, like, it is suggesting that we regulate privacy mixers under the Patriot Act. In fact, it's suggesting another special measure under the Patriot Act to be targeted

non-custodial software talking about the creation of subtypes of the BSA, the Bank Secrecy Act, targeted at DFI services. We don't want the BSA and DFI to be at all together.

It's a different thing. It's a bank secrecy act. DFI is not a bank, right? To rescind, modify, or update, there was some guidance, actually, in 2019, Finson guidance. that specified that if you were a non-custodial software developer,

you're not a money transmitter. They said that to us, and that was a pro case in the REMB and Storm case. Well, this is saying that we should modify that in certain ways. It wasn't really reinforcing this. And also, generally recommending that we use AI for data surveillance of D5 protocols and that we have digital identities for D5 protocols in place that effectively do the AML KYC thing. So it's not great.

for crypto privacy, and this is coming out of the Treasury. So there's really a question in my mind as to, you know, when we're talking about America being the crypto capital of the world, what do we mean by crypto, actually? You remember this Ben Hunt kind of argument where he came on bankless, his previous podcast guest, and he said, look, the nation states never going to actually allow you to have real self-sovereign crypto, private crypto?

Yeah, they're not going to let you do the badass cypherpunct things. they're going to let you have the crypto Disneyland stuff. That's right, the shrink-wrap crypto. He called it Crypto-TM, right? Trademark crypto. And I do feel like this administration is giving us a lot of great things with respect to kind of the crypto-TM stuff. Like the stuff that Wall Street is cheering on, right?

Yeah, the Democrats were like, we're going to ban you guys. Yeah, we'll just ban the whole thing. I think what you're saying is like, well, the Donald Trump administration is like we get to have everything that we want, shrink-wrapped and put behind Wall Street as products. That's right. The crypto-TM, right? So we got the CFTC and Wall Street, all that.

And that's good. That's great. We got stable coins. That's great. We got custody crypto. They're big fans of that. They're big fan of ETFs. Defi, this has been kind of.

They've called off the dogs largely on D-Fi. But when it comes to privacy, when it comes to self-sovereign crypto, I think what's coming out of Treasury is a no. And the evidence for that is they're continuing to prosecute Roman Storm. How can you be the lowercase C crypto capital of the world if you're still doing that? Yeah. Maybe better than the Democrats, maybe better than the Biden administration, but we're still not getting what we need on the crypto side of things.

It is because it's privacy, because it's a mixer, it is not just open source developers, but it is like going up against what I think the nation state would say like a national security. threat versus individual freedoms. And when you take the judgment of the nation state about a nation state security threat, the judgment is always going to be like, well, it's a threat and we need to ban it. And it takes a very noble politician and a very noble leader to preserve the rights of individual freedom and autonomy and privacy over the nation state because inherently the nation state is always going to protect itself.

Yeah. It takes people like the founding fathers and digital bill of rights, a bill of rights. to give civil liberties to the people and to trust them with those civil liberties. So I guess we're not there yet, but we will see there is a link. We'll include in the show notes, if you'd like to donate to the Roman Storm cause,

please do so. You need some legal support, and those funds will help them do that all over again. Yeah, all over again. But then we get crypto and we get to keep it, and it's the Wild West free, open public permissionless version of the thing, not the thing that just gets wrapped

into a product wrapper and distributed on Wall Street. And he could fully win in court this time. So that is the hopeful case. Coming up next, we got best friends forever. Mike and Paul from the SEC at the CFTC. They're working on Project Crypto. Also, BlackRock releasing their staking ETO.

David, I know you've investigated the details on that. I want to hear about them. And then Bernie Sanders and the moratorium on AI data centers, what is this anti-tech backlash and where will it lead? All that and more. But before we get there, we want to thank the sponsors that made this possible. Some exciting news. We are launching a new podcast to help people figure out the crypto cycle, how to navigate it. The best crypto cycle investor I know, his name is Michael Nato. He runs the Defi Report. This is the guy that sent me a sell alert before the 1010 price drop happened. His cycle analysis has been absolutely on point. I've been following him for years. And this year, we started recording weekly podcast episodes. Each one we get into his portfolio, what he's holding, the market structure, entry targets, fair market value of Bitcoin and Ether. And where we are in the cycle. There's new episodes that are released every Wednesday. They're 30 minutes. They're short. They're punchy. I think this crypto cycle is harder to navigate than most. So let's do it together. Go subscribe to this podcast. Search the Defi Report wherever you get your podcast. YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or find a link in the show notes. There's a new episode waiting for you now.

Ryan, this picture just warmed to my heart. This was one of the most heartwarming things I've seen on the timeline for the podcast listeners. We have just a very hearty, uh, romance. Selleig, Bromance, Mike Selig, the new chair of the CFC, giving a nice, firm handshake to the SEC chair, Paul Atkins. And they just look overjoyed. They just look back there about. This would have never happened with Gary Gensler. No. Who's the previous year?

In the Gary Gensler era, like, Gary tried to do a, like, encroach on the CFTC territory. I can't remember what it was about, but he did this. And then the CFTC had to, like, plant a flag being like, Gary, back off our back. Not everything is a security. Yeah, exactly. So Paul Atkins tweeted out, The era of turf wars, duplicative registrations and differing regulations between the SEC and CFTC is over

by aligning regulatory definitions, coordinating oversight, and facilitating data sharing, Chairman Selling and I will ensure we deliver the clarity that market participants to serve. This is, I think if you're a fan of small government, you're a fan of this, because this is ideally two agencies doing more with less, with more than what they have.

There's been a broad question of like, why do we have the SEC and the CFTC? Why can't we just have one big markets regulator? This is something that we asked, Chair Selig when we had him on the show. Yeah. And his answer is like, well, if we can just collaborate, that's basically the same thing. Basically the same, yeah. Two departments toward the same set of goals, names. Exactly.

So what actually officially happened other than a picture of a handshake being tweeted out is that the SEC and CFTC issued a memorandum of understanding, which is like essentially like a formal playbook on how the two agencies will do all of the stuff that they need to do. Sharing information, joint operations, common definitions, streamlined rules.

It is basically like a tweet of friendship. I know, but this should have been the way it was always set up to be, right? Like the fact that, I mean, it's great. I'm glad. But this is basically an announcement that, hey, government's going to be more functional now. We're going to stop doing silo turf force.

Yeah, we're going to stop. You should have always been doing that, but I'm glad that's happening now. It's great. But they are going to work together very closely. We heard from Mike C. Lake earlier this week on the bankless podcast that they're, you know, hand in hand with Project Crypto as well. And that's going to be an area of close collaboration, which is very needed. Let's get into the Black Rock Staked ETH ETF. So, Ryan, what is the ticker for the first Black Rock ETH ETF?

I think that's ETHA, right? ETHA, yeah. Now we got ETHB. Okay. We got ETHB. So ETH A is if you want ETH unstaked. Eth B is if you want ETHR staked. Why would I want ETH A when I can get ETHB?

That's a good question. If you are holding ETH A in your brokerage, you might want to consider transitioning to ETHB. You definitely don't have a tax liability because ETH price has definitely gone down since. Oh, that's true. That's true. So you can.

But that is, I should say, for our tax listeners, of course, those are two separate assets. So that will be a taxable event. That will be a taxable event, yeah. But it could be a tax loss. harvesting a bet. Nice. Okay, so how does it actually work?

The reason why we haven't just been able to get this out the door is you actually just can't naively have a 100% staked ETH. That's right. Because of the withdrawal queue, because doing redemptions is difficult. It's actually kind of one of the problematic components of the Ethereum. You sit in a queue potentially. It depends on how many other stakers are withdrawing at the same time. That queue has been as long as like 30 plus days.

40 days, 48 days, I think was the longest. It's no longer that high now. But the problem is, is like BlackRock, when they create this legal structure, this entity, this asset, they need to account for all possible risks. Yeah. This is one of them. And so the way that they solve this is that it's just 80% staked, 20% vanilla. Okay. And so they have a 20%, what do they call this, a liquidity sleeve that targets between 70 and 95% of its eth to be staked under normal market conditions, the remaining.

5 to 30% is kept as a liquidity sleeve. And that allows for redemptions. That means you're not getting the full staking yields. And in addition to only 80% being staked, there is also 18% cut of the yield. And so for every dollar of staking rewards that the asset earns BlackRock and Coinbase and some of the validators take 18 cents.

And so if you are staking eth yourself, the bankless way, at home doing your duty to Ethereum, you are receiving like 3.5% ETH yield. If you do it in ETHB, the banked rate is 2.87%. So that is your cost of convenience for you if you do the BlackRock, ETHB.

It's great that this product is now available, right? So this is kind of more of the internet bond type meme. It's something that Bitcoin does not have. So maybe that's going to be attractive to some investors. We've got two ETFs to play around with. Yeah. I would like to take a victory lap here, Ryan, where I previously said that I do not think the staked ETH ETF will be all that bullish. And I do, I think if you go look at the ETH market, David. Come on.

ETH price did not respond to this news. Yeah, not at all. Not at all. Just shrugged it off. That happened today, though. So it is a pretty big deal in the background. David, a trend to watch, are DFI tokens turning back into U.S. securities? this is a proposal from the across protocol. Can you tell us about this? So Risk Labs, which is the team behind across, did a temp check.

This is a temperature check. They were just putting out a feeler about, hey, how do you guys feel about these things, about the possibility of migrating the Dow token structure to a USC corp, which would hold the protocol IP and run all operations. So there's a couple different options. What is...

For people who don't recall, what is a cross? It is a bridge protocol, is what people know. it has it's an intense space bridge protocol so i use across to hop from chain to chain it's all basically happens in the background now at this point um but it is a interoperability protocol basically um okay so there are two options for acx holders uh one would be a ACX token to share conversion so you would hold your tokens and then it would just convert to equity which is kind of cool um but problematic u.s investors who have under that you who are not accredited

or have under 5 million tokens will need to get accredited investor status. So small corollary there. But this is the cross protocol going from a Dow and a crypto native token essentially to a private U.S.

C-Corp. This is a temp check about that. There's a temp check about that. But if this happens, that's what the proposal effectively is. You go from a token to a private shares in a C-Corp and kind of a one-to-one split

or a one-to-one redemption here. Yeah. The second option that ACX holders has is they just get a buy out at something that's like 25% premium to the price, which is why the price pumped. The proposal claims... The price did pop, too. Look at this. It did pop quite a lot. It went from $25 million market cap to a $45 million market cap. FTV. The rationale that Hart, the founder of across, he just says it is just like, we just need to have a centralized entity. The Dow token thing makes things difficult for us. We need enforceable contracts. We need a clear. legal counterparty. We need structured revenue agreements. We need a C-Corp. We need a C-Corp. That's painful, right? It's sad. I totally get it. So one thing, like, my take on this when I read this is first respect to a cross protocol for, like, optimizing for the best interests of token investors. Okay. A lot of other crypto projects were just like cut and run or rug the token holders. You didn't have any, you know, investor protections or rights anyway. Ha-ha. And Cross is not doing that, right? So, you know, Ryan's just, you know, Pat and pump in the back so his fellow Canadian.

Yeah, yeah, that's right. And Hart, the team is fantastic. They've been doing a great job. But. Good ice climber. This is, oh, yeah, you've ice climbed with Hart, right? Okay. So this is, this is sad, though.

I feel like this is sad for our tokens because we're going in the wrong direction. I thought, no, guys, wait, wait, wait, wait. I thought tokens. Where are you going? Yeah, I thought, like, dows and tokens and more useful capital was going to come on Shane. And now we're going from on chain to off chain. And what Hart basically said was having a token generally hurts more than it helps. I think he's right.

I mean, even look at the token price, David, like over time. It is just like, you know. Not that chart. Yeah, it's down. Yeah, the price pump that you see, it doesn't really look like one when you zoom all the way out. I mean, in vet, like, so there is a discount right now that the market is placing on tokens. And I think they're discounting them because they're realizing tokens don't have investor rights, don't have good alignment,

aren't solving principal agent problems. There's no fiduciary responsibility. So the market is just flat out discounting all of our defy tokens, right? So who would want to be a token in this environment? If you're investor, you don't necessarily want to be a token. So it's a little sad because I feel like we're seeding ground.

One day, maybe we fix these things and we start putting more capital assets on chain. This is not that day. I wonder if almost the route is like, okay, so a cross becomes a private C-court, maybe it goes public at some point or something, and then it comes back on chain? Is that what we have to do as a tokenized real world asset?

Yeah, but it won't be permissionlessly purchasable. It would be an equity on chain. And we want equities on chain, but we don't want our tokens to turn into equities. We want our tokens to be even more investable of an asset than equities themselves. And equities have a lot of things going for them as an investable asset. They are literally assets that are meant to be invested in.

and tokens aren't not that, but they aren't purely that either, and there's a lot of encumbrances that tokens have, and we need to find ways to make tokens even better than equities, and that's a very hard thing to do. Well, today is not that day. We're not doing it yet. We got some more work to be doing in that space for sure.

This was some news coming out of Polymarket that you were excited about. A partnership with Palantir? Yeah, yeah. Okay, so this is odd. So it reads odd, but it actually makes a ton of sense when you look into it. So Polymarket from Shane tweeted out that they are excited to announce a partnership with Palantir and TWGAI to build the next generation of sports integrity market platforms. So like what's going on here is like why the hell is Polymarket and Palantir working together?

Yeah. What does Palantir do that's relevant to Polymarket? Palantir provides data infrastructure and surveillance capabilities. So like large scale data integration. and anomaly detection built originally for the government to like surveil the world but now they are applying it on ingesting trading data

and flagging suspicious patterns in real time. Basically insider trading or shenanigans going on on the prediction market using Palantir's capacity. What is TWG AI? Glad you asked. TWA is the intelligence division of TWG Global who I also didn't know what this was.

TWG Global is a massive conglomerate with a huge sports portfolio. So they own majority stakes in the Lakers, the Dodgers, the L.A.S. Chelsea Football Club, Cadillac F1. TWG AI is their AI arm that specializes in financial services and sports analytics. And so they already have built AI software stuff for finance and insurance. And so you put these things together and you have this portfolio of people that own all the sports stuff. And then you have Palantir, which can help do market integrity, create market integrity and polymarket.

And then you have Polymarket, which is trying to foster just a very large sports economy on its prediction market platform. And so when Shane tweeted this out, he tweets out the current state-by-state regulatory password for sports prediction market is broken. This partnership builds integrity infrastructure from the ground up at the federal level using Palantir and TWG to establish market trust and make the case that prediction market regulation belongs at the federal level, not fractured across states. So it's a combination of user protections for market integrity while also advocating that, like,

if we were regulated piecemeal by the states, we would never be able to do this in the first place. Yeah, I guess I was wondering how they were going to solve these problems with like identifying insider trading and stuff like that. And it seems like what they're doing is they're throwing AI at it. They're AI and data. Yeah, and you're trying to figure that out. Let's talk about another AI subject. And this is Bernie Sanders.

who does not like AI. Let's play a clip. Thanks very much for joining me. I will soon be introducing legislation calling for a moratorium on the construction of new data centers. Now, as a result, I've been called a Luddite, anti-innovation, anti-progress, pro-Chinese, among many other things. This is a whole nine-minute video, but Bernie Sanders is writing a bill, a championing bill in Congress, to call for a moratorium. on the U.S. building new data centers. And he goes on as to why.

He talks about the job loss, obviously that will affect Americans. He talks about mental health problems that AI is causing. He talks about the energy use, of course. He talks about the billionaires who are going to make the majority of wealth on AI and leave the rest behind.

And he also has some like AI Dumer type themes, too. You saw a clip last week of Bernie Sanders meeting with some of the decelerationist folks, the effective altruist type folks like the LA's or Yudkowski's of the world. And he talked about loss of control that maybe AI

could kill us. That it could it's a safety issue and worried about you know effects and outcomes of human life. So it's all of these narratives combined and Bernie Sanders is leading a campaign to stop AI

data center building. And I think David, this is backlash that is going to gain a lot of steam in the U.S. And it might be the issue, one of the top three issues, deciding the 2028 election, as well as it's going to surface during the midterms too. In terms of a just a persuasion piece, this video, nine minutes, 40 seconds, a fantastic job. Like just a good argumentative piece of content. You think so?

To, yeah, like I don't agree with it, but he's doing the job that he needs to do. there's like three or four minutes of it where he's just quoting from tech billionaires about all the ways that AI is going to disrupt the economy and he's like, Dario Armadi says it's going to replace all the jobs. And these are his words. These are the tech leader CEO like Mark Zuckerberg,

the second richest person in the world said this. And so he takes the same rhetoric that we know from L.Azer-Yudkowski that we experienced on the podcast when we had him on, he does the Bernie Sanders spin on it of it's going to disenfranchise the bottom half of the population and it's going to make all the very rich people, Elon Musk's Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman,

is going to make them even more rich. It's very populist. It's very decelerationist. There's a very strong growing alliance between the decelerationsists and the leftist. But it's also, David, it seems to be a popular opinion. I mean, this is the NBC poll showing that AI has worse poll numbers than ICE.

So AI is even less popular. in the U.S. than ICE. Only two things are even less popular. One is the Democratic Party. Oh, no. The other is on. Okay, but, you know, it's, let's see here, total negative is 52% total positive.

Sorry, 46%. Total positive, 26%. It's only as 26% of U.S. citizens who are positive on AI. I mean, I think Bernie is just capturing this popular sentiment wave, which is a lot of Americans are scared of it. They don't like it. That makes them feel uncertain. And that's going to turn into votes. Yeah. Yeah. The political divide in my mind is going

to be determined by like global leftist decelerationists and techno-nationalist accelerationist. I guess. And I think that that is a framework that I think has been useful to me. And I kind of expect that to go to go forward. Yeah, I think one of my concerns about this is basically when you start to say a moratorium on AI data centers, you're kind of saying moratorium on tokens, AI tokens. You're saying moratorium on intelligence. You're saying slow down on a lot of things, like slow down economic growth, slow down the affordability of a key set of services around healthcare and therapy and legal services, a slowdown of America relative to other countries. a slowdown potentially of tax revenue

that the GDP of this industrial revolution could create. It's like a real decelerationist take. And it's very different to me than the left of the 1990s, which is like kind of the Bill Clinton Democratic left, which their take was like the economy can boom. Tech can do really well. Everyone can do really well. We're just going to take a larger portion of taxes

to fund our social programs, right? this approach is much more desal, right? It's like, that's not good enough. What we're actually wanting to do is decelerate the growth here, slow progress, almost freeze things in time. Yeah, we don't want to tax it. We don't want it fundamentally. So I do think that this binary is being created,

the one that you kind of described, which is like the decel kind of side of things versus the accelerationist side of things. And they're both really pulling against, one another right now. And it's a political issue. It might be the political issue of, you know, the next four years into the presidency. Yeah.

AI obviously has mainstream awareness. Only, I think, like, less than 1% of people in the United States actually pay for AI, so there's still a lot of penetration left to do. But you can imagine by the time the 2028 election comes around, that's two and a half years from now. You know how good AI is going to be in two and a half years? there will be actual real job disruption by then, not just like the fake AI,

like doom or porn stuff that we're seeing on Twitter. Yeah, so I guess watch for that. I think it's going to roll downstream into crypto because if you're anti-tech for AI, then you're probably also going to be anti-crypto policy. And we might be starting to see the early signs of a political backlash on all this. Yeah.

We'll have to navigate it as we do every week on bank list. Thank you for joining us, of course. Got to let you know, none of this has been financial advice. crypto's risky, you could lose what you put in. But we are headed west. This is the frontier, and it's not for everyone. But we're glad you're with us on the bankless journey. Thanks a lot.