Bankless - ROLLUP: Saylor Risk? | Warsh’s New Fed | SpaceX IPO | Coinbase’s Everything Exchange

Episode Date: June 19, 2026

Equities are rallying, but Bitcoin is breaking down. David and Tom unpack Saylor’s STRC stress, Warsh’s first FOMC, SpaceX’s mega-IPO, Jito’s breakout, Coinbase’s Everything Exchange, and why perps may be crypto’s next real growth engine. --- 📣OKX | THE NEW MONEY APP https://app.okx.com/en-us/join/usbankless --- BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🔮POLYMARKET | #1 PREDICTION MARKET https://bankless.cc/polymarket-podcast 🧭OKX | TRADE, EARN, PAY to OKX | 120M+ USERS WORLDWIDE https://app.okx.com/join/USBANKLESS 🦊 METAMASK | DOWNLOAD NOW https://go.metamask.io/BL-Pod-Download 🌐BRIX | EMERGING MARKET YIELD https://bankless.cc/brix 📊BITGET | TOKENIZED STOCKS 2.0 https://bankless.cc/bitget-stocks 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | ONCHAIN INSIGHTS https://thedefireport.io/bankless --- TIMESTAMPS & RESOURCES  0:00 Intro 3:07 Equities Up, Crypto Down: STRC Stress https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/2067629492214829114 https://x.com/zackvoell/status/2067628541257429213 https://x.com/R89Capital/status/2067608064627491009 https://x.com/jdorman81/status/2067616073479078386 11:21 First FOMC with Kevin Warsh https://www.businessinsider.com/kevin-warsh-first-fomc-fed-meeting-interest-rates-2026-6 16:35 SpaceX Becomes One of the World’s Most Valuable Companies 25:43 Mover of the Month: JTO 31:01 Coinbase System Update https://www.coinbase.com/blog/system-update-take-control-of-your-money-with-coinbase https://x.com/oost_marcel/status/2067268725883981841 https://x.com/coinbase/status/2066890566667796530 https://www.theblock.co/post/405012/coinbase-unveils-system-update-unlocking-an-ai-advisor-global-unified-liquidity-options-trading-and-more 37:42 Anchorage Brings Hyperliquid to Institutions https://x.com/nathanmccauley/status/2066906951464947966 46:23 Blockworks Acquires Messari https://x.com/blockworks/status/2065468327120576863 50:40 UK Moves to Ban Social Media for Children https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/2066458640010158571 57:50 Polymarket World Cup Trade https://polymarket.com/sports/world-cup/bracket https://polymarket.com/event/world-cup-winner 59:50 Closing & Disclaimers --- Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures

Bankless Nation is time for another weekly roll-up. It is the third week of June. And once again, Ryan Todd Adams is on vacation. Well-deserved. And we got Tom Schmidt. Usually we tap in his seat, but we have tapped in his seat, like, so many times. So we're bringing my BFF back. Tom, welcome back to us.

I'm glad on the BFF, not a seat. I've seen him on Bankless too many times. So thanks for having me. Yeah, yeah, I really appreciate you. Tom, you're in New York. Why aren't you at the Knicks parade? You know, I'm gamefully employed. So I felt like it's very difficult to do both that and be at the next parade.

But it looked insane. I was like, that Fulton Street, just completely jammed full of people. So I'm also happy to just observe it digitally, you know. Yeah, I wake up and do the thing that you shouldn't do, which is I immediately opened up my phone. And I pulled up on Instagram and looked at stories. And there were all of my friends, like, I'm two hours ago already in Manhattan at like 6.30 in the morning. I'm like, Jesus, what are you guys doing?

I don't get it. I'm also, you know, I'm one of those, you know, bandwagon Knicks fans. So I can't really cop to being a Knicks fan. You know, I'm just like, I'm here. Yeah, I'm glad it's happening. The energy in the city is great. I get to write it. We got some news to talk about.

Equities are up on the week, but crypto is down. Strategies stretch is trading 15% off par while there's a lot of grave dancing going on on Twitter. We have the new FOMC meeting with the new, brand new, shiny new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh. He said while he was getting the job, while he was going through the job interview process, that he's going to cut. And then once he got the job, it turns out when he just was saying what Trump wanted him to say, now he's got the job, he doesn't have to say that anymore. So now he's saying something else. There was the SpaceX IPO on Friday, and now it's the seventh largest company in the world. And I got a question, why is Gito?

The block building software on Solana up 70% in 30 days. And then also, Coinbase launched 21 new products all with their system update event. going to go through all of this and more. But first, before we get into today's episode time, I got to talk to our friends and sponsors over at OKX. The Intercontinental Exchange, which is the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, they backed OKX at a $25 billion evaluation with a plan to launch tokenized New York Stock Exchange stonks and derivatives later this year on OKX.

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Sorry about that. All you ought to do, go to OKX, click that link, verify your identity. Deposit, $100. You get some money. deposit more money, get some more money, trade more money, get more money, all up to $500. So there's a link in the show notes to get started. Let's just go back to equities. Equity is looking good on the week, still rallying after the Iran War. P-Sdeal got minted. Bitcoin and crypto followed them shortly, but not anymore. Not yesterday and definitely not today.

Bitcoin is now trading back right at the 200-week moving average at $62,600. I think maybe this is just me, but I think people's eyes are all on Michael Saylor's Stretch product, which was starting to recover after it dipped down to $91 last week, June 5th, and they recovered up to like 96, 97, but it caught all the way down to $82, Tom, this morning. It's trading back up to $87. So far. So far, almost 20% off of its peg of $100,

making people very bearish about the confidence of strategy. I don't know if you pay attention to stretch. I pay attention to stretch quite a lot. What do you think about all this? Yeah, I think this is really the first time. I think we have strong evidence that sailor and strategy are weighing heavily on the market. People have been saying this for months, like, why is people being going down? Why has it been underperforming?

And people say, oh, well, there's the sailor risk. But the market was not reflecting that. And, you know, it's kind of like, you know, you look at the bond market, the market to determine, you know, sort of confidence in government and credence around government policy. This feels like, you know, the sort of tariff tantrum equivalent, but for sailor. There was definitely a dislocation here because we could have been bullish. The equities market, bullish all week. The FOMC, hawkishness, we'll talk about that. But what didn't seem to be too bad, crypto was going up, everything was going up except for Stretch. Stretch never recovered

and it seems to be that like it is actually kind of a focal point of the Bitcoin market. And therefore, like usually we've seen assets like hyperliquid, VV, the revenue generating assets, which have been counter cyclical to Bitcoin. Today they are cyclical to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is literally dragging everything down. And it seems to be that like Bitcoin can't get bullish until this gets resolved. Yeah. I, you know, obviously sailors sold a couple Bitcoin.

to inoculate the market, quote unquote. And then obviously, after the fact announced I bought several times more, you know, Bitcoin. But I think it seems like this is always going to be a looming issue. It's a little bit like a, you know, token, like a long-dated token vest of this is just always going to be this thing dangling over your head. And so he needs to find a long-term plan for it. I think people discussed, hey, maybe just selling a larger amount of Bitcoin now. so you have, you know, a year plus worth of cash to be able to pay dividends. But if anything, I think we're also just an interesting instrument to trade, right?

We're coming up towards the end of the month when the first event, you know, should be coming out. Funding has been going crazy. I said lighter has a stretch perp. And so it's always like, for a while it was like 900% annualized. So some people are also doing, you have this cash and carry trade. If they're going to hold the stretch, short the perps, maybe try to collect the interest. It's just like all sorts of super interesting environment. but I feel like we're going to get this resolved one way or another, you know, closer to the end of the month.

And I don't quite know how because I do find I'm not a particular big strategy or sailor bull, but he does have the ability to, you know, pull a rabbit out of a hat on demand. So they be able to do something. Yeah, the kind of the fundamental quandary that I see with Stretch is that the stated intention of Stretch is that if it trades below par, trades below 100, he'll simply just increase the interest rates to attract more buyers. and it'll just pay more a year yield to attract more capital. You know, slap your hands together. So simple.

But the problem with that is that if you do that, then you run out of money faster. And there's like a confidence issue that you impose upon your asset. If you like jack up your interest rates from like 11%, which is already high, like how many other yield sources are you beating with 11% like most of them? And so you go up to 13, 14% in order to attract more buyers of the stretch asset. like, well, you're just going to run out of your cash balance faster, which is going to reduce the confidence. And so it doesn't really seem to be a solid, elegant solution.

It seems you're just kind of taking from one pocket, putting another, and then everything that nets out at the end. It's still a fundamental problem. Yeah, I think there's a lot of businesses or investment varieties that are sort of predicated on this idea of, you know, Coinbase, Kager from past, you know, decade or so. But, you know, the problem is you don't eat kegger, right? Like the United States, on average is maybe, you know, a thousand feet above sea level, and then you hit the Rocky Mountains

and it's like, oh, shit, I was not prepared for this. And the question is how do you sort of, you know, moderate some of this volatility while you are structurally long term Bitcoin? I think the plan is, you know, you should have more of a, you know, insurance fund for this kind of thing. But ultimately, you know, if you're a long strategy, probably if you're buying stretch, you're also long Bitcoin. The question is, you know, why this instrument to express that view? Yeah, I think that's the big question going on is like, why buy and hold MSTR? Jeff Dorman put out a tweet that people are really liking on Twitter.

He goes, my base case right now is 70% odds that they keep on doing what they're doing strategy, which is selling small amounts of MSCR every month at non-accreative levels, crushing the stock until it falls to 0.7MNAV. This would at least give stretchholders a glimmer of hope. Bitcoin would be fine, but MSCR. would be hammered. He's been hammering MSTR to this point. At least it is still above MNAV,

but nonetheless, value capture in MSTR does not really seem to be a thing. So that's his first case, 25% chance for his next case is that he does the right thing, according to Jeff, admits he messed up when he bought back the debt, sells $3 to $4 billion of Bitcoin,

buys a ton of time, which is marginally good for MSTR, very good for stretch, but bad for Bitcoin, and then a 5% chance that he does the nuclear option, which has just kill the dividends, let the preferred fall to 30 to 40 cents on the dollar, which would close the capital markets to Michael Saylor,

but at least he shuts off the $1.7 billion per year cash outlay problem. At some point, I'm like, dude, like you don't have an infinite money printer. Like, you've bought all the Bitcoin that the market is allowing you to have. I don't think the last option is too crazy for him. It's just very painful. It's a bad look. probably lawsuits, a bunch of stuff involved with that. I don't know if you have an opinion on which is the most likely outcome here.

Well, I see you wearing that jersey. And really the question is, do you want to be Brazil or do you want to be Argentina? And those are kind of the two paths open to you. I think one is maybe, you know, short-term painful, long-term, the better path. The other one, so you kind of kick the can down the road a little bit more. I really, and not the specialist, not the person to call when it comes to, you know, interrogating the psyche of Michael Saylor, which ultimately feels like you kind of kind of have to understand and underwrite if you want to buy any of these assets.

So I don't know. That's certainly an interesting area to specialize in in terms of the market. But I think of anything, again, I think you'd probably find some way to cover some of this short-term debt. And then, hey, maybe we just give us, gives ourselves a little bit more window and hope that Bitcoin goes up in that remaining window. Speaking of the psyche of Michael Taylor, this clip went around that people really didn't like. This was an interview that Michael Taylor gave on Coin Des. He was asked about how he, He came up with Stretch, the philosophy behind it, and he just goes like, oh, yeah, I sat down with AI and I used artificial intelligence to build Stretch, which is not a good clip to have to give confidence in the market. Although, I think we all, everyone uses AI. I use AI. I'm sure Tom, you use AI. So I don't really think, I'm not blaming Taylor for using AI. It sounds a little goofy. Yeah. Maybe he was Fable 5, you know. Maybe he had early Mythos access and that was what really designed. So people are narrating it.

You know, we had an almost ASI-level model designing this instrument. Yeah, I suppose it really depends on what model he uses. Yeah. Well, we'll reserve my bullish or bearish takes depending on the model he used. All right, let's get into FOMC meeting. So this is Kevin Warsh, a brand new Fed chair, his first FOMC meeting. There's a quote from BlackRock that I'll read. Rick Reader, the head of fixed income at BlackRock, says,

today we believe that the Federal Reserve's FOMC ushered in a new era of monetary policy in the United States. And so this is seemingly the news that the market is trying to digest is what is the Fed's new strategy? Because there was a huge deliberate regime change at the Fed showed by Kevin Warsh's disposition. He held rates at 3.5 to 3.75 percent. So that's not any difference. That's not the regime change is happening. The regime change is what the Fed is communicating to the market. And so Powell had this like cookie cutter, 341 word, like typical response, like formulaic a speech that he would give to the market.

Kevin Warsh cut that by 130 words. And he also intentionally killed forward guidance. And he also was the first chair to not submit his own dot on the Fed dot plot, showing to Trisholet not show his cards on his future opinion on rates. in the past, Kevin Warsh has just shown, articulated to disdain for forward guidance, and he says it just hamstrings policy. So analysts are calling it a green style span return to constructive ambiguity. And so we're letting the market be a little confused and unsure and the Fed just not showing his cards in order to give the Fed a little bit more flexibility and, you know, ammo about what they can do? Tom, what was your reaction?

Yeah, I think most of the critiques. around Warsh were more, I felt like, aesthetic. You know, it's sad to see, you know, Powell out. Powell looks like a Fed Chair. Yeah, and I think specifically people who miss the good afternoon instead of the good day with Warsh. I don't know.

I think, you know, it's still very early. And ultimately, like, what we've seen from Fed Chairs in the past is really where they kind of show their true character is when there's a crisis and that's when they decide what to do. Obviously, Bernaggy-Berry-Famous with 08. Powell with with COVID. And so, you know, I think

I've seen some charts fleeing around where you look at, not dot pop, but like banking analysts, projections of, you know, several years out of interest rate. And it's all basically always wrong. Because there's always some exogenous event

that ultimately ends up affecting Fed policy. And that's really the moment when these things kind of matter. So I don't know. I think we got to a few more years and a few more maybe hectic events before we see how good Warsh is. Business as usual until something crazy happens, until the AI bubble pops. Yes. And the Fed, the Fed has to like watch to see if it needs to step in there or not.

It is worth noting that nine of the 18 Fed officials now do see a hike by the end of the year, which is not what the markets were positioned for. So the one bad week in the market, or the one bad day in the market this week was right after the OMC, which was yesterday, Wednesday. S&P dropped 1.2%. Two-year yields jumped up. The dollar has gone up. Odds of an October rate hike has gone up to 60%.

Bitcoin fell 3% gold sold off. It's just like, yeah, it's a one-time response to the market. I don't think it's anything structural as of yet. The structural change is the game theory that Fed, the game that the Fed is trying to play around game theory. There's also something that I'm going to keep an eye on is Kevin Warsh introduced a task force He just said task force over and over and over again. So there's a communications task force, a balance sheet task force, a data task force,

a productivity and AI task force. All of these task force, I think analysts are being interpreting them as like, these are just Kevin Warsh building mechanisms to build the consensus that he wants to build. So like it's bureaucracy, but like Kevin Warsh wants to do something. And so he's setting a team of task force to give him the response, to give him the justification. to do the strategy. So giving him leverage in the future. That's my read.

That's a bunch of other people's reasons. I don't know if you have to take on that, Tom. I have less of a read. I will say on the data front, I was always under the assumption that, you know, really the Fed was maybe the most authoritative, the most accurate source when it comes to looking at these different measures of inflation or inflation that they obviously used to influence policy.

And I was talking to Turun, Chitra, from Gauntlet and Robo. who's a co-s in my podcast a while ago. He was shitting on the Fed's data efforts. They said they actually have like incredibly poor data infrastructure. And it's like these private market investors have like way more sophisticated models for CPI. So maybe the answer is he's trying to turn the Fed to AI native or something like that. I don't know. Maybe that's favorable.

That would align with what Mike Seleuk is trying to do at the CFTC. He's just like, let's build this institution up in an AI era first. And so I like that. I like that. That sounds very sci-fi. I'm into this. speaking of sci-fi let's go into uh SpaceX so SpaceX is now the seventh largest company by market cap briefly it flipped Amazon before it fell back down it was briefly ahead of Amazon you know

Amazon the thing that makes like 750 billion dollars a year in revenue SpaceX which makes 18 billion dollars a year in revenue flipped Amazon it's now back down to number nine by total assets by market cap number seven by total companies by market cap it rallied post IPO, which I think was a little bit surprising, not consensus. The consensus was that this thing is a high FDV low float shick coin and all the insiders are going to dump on you. Turns out it was a high FDV low float chick coin, which was very easy to pump. It went IPOed, it popped up to 165 and then it got all the way up to 216.

It has since traded down down to 180. Brand new company in the top 10 company market caps, Tom. What do you think? just to be clear, you know, that may still happen. That may still happen. The unlocked schedule for SpaceX is insane. I like this, I was like Bill Ackman tweet today or yesterday.

It was the thing that makes SpacePax so valuable is that it's so valuable. I think referring to their ability to do all these acquisitions of X and XAI and our cursor just using this extremely high, you know, share price. And so it's, this really interesting instrument where, you know, you can almost say it's sort of a, you know,

micro strategy like in that way, where it's, you're trading at some huge premium to maybe where these assets we normally otherwise be trading, which allows you to sort of suck it up into this vehicle. And maybe there's some synergies, maybe there's, you know, so that Elon Musk, you know, aura around it. But I think on the other hand, it is like this unique one-of-one instrument, right? People love Starlink. And, you know, obviously, you know, I think Amazon has their own competitor, but everyone knows Starlink the brand and they're the real ones everywhere. And not many other companies, if any, you know, have the kind of ability to get, you know, large payloads in flight that SpaceX has. The fact that it has all these other things wrapped up to it,

maybe more of a kind of rounding error. It's kind of like, you know, square buying title or something. But I don't know. I think I was also surprised by how warm the market was to it post-IPO, where for a while it seemed like, you know, this thing was getting shopped around everywhere. Fidelity lowered the minimum assets on platform required to participate from like, you know, 100,000 to like 2,000. And it just felt like, okay, this thing is getting super shopped around. Is it even going to get, you know, filled? Ended being obviously very oversubbed and then, you know, totally, totally popping after the IPO.

So I don't know where it's going to go from here, but I certainly think, you know, Elon is not one of the doubt. Yeah, the Bill Ackman tweet that you just mentioned where they, especially, SpaceX has so much leverage because it's valuable. I think it just goes beyond, I love the take. I think it just goes beyond capital, but just like the clout of Elon and the prowess of Elon and the uniqueness of the fact that like what other company is exposure to space. The interesting thing about SpaceX is that I think it could have, in an alternative timeline, IPOed on the stock market at like one one-hundredth evaluation.

And that would have been another normal day. and that would have been totally fine and no one would have thought anything of it but there's like so much surface area for financial engineering and I don't say that in like a negative way but just Elon knows this game

and he intentionally did the high FTV low float thing there's a lot of stakeholders at play who are incented to make this thing go up not even just inside of this SpaceX arena but like yo think about the open AI and anthropic IPOs that people want to be bullish on

and we want those go up and there's the whole IPO vertical around those. So if SpaceX plummets, that's not looking good for Open AI and SpaceX. And so like there's just like a lot of if you do it right and you financially engineer it correctly, you just manifest

a new market cap. And it seems kind of weird that that's true. Like shouldn't be shouldn't companies be traded on their fundamentals. But like I think it's a question of like is it is it hot air or is it just smart financial engineering? And I'm in the ladder camp. I think there's a lot of yeah like path dependency

to it right, like the way in which you raise the capital and, you know, I think of almost some of these other, you know, businesses as almost like kind of filling in the gaps in like a, you know, jar of nuts of like, oh yeah, you can't just rely on this very chunky, sort of not as, you're immediately repeatable or sexy like government contracts to do these space launches. We also have all these little things kind of kind of sprinkled in that a guy would allow you to sort of get there long term. In addition to, obviously, you know, the Elon aura. I think there's also an incredible vindication for pre-IPO perps and on-chain perps. I don't know if you talked about this on the last show, but I think trade X, Y, Z,

which is the RWA perps platform on hyperliqu with HIP3 markets. They priced the IPO pretty much perfectly. They priced out like 160 and got there at the end of the trading day. And even today, they're still doing hundreds of millions of volume on SpaceX. And so, you know, we saw a little bit of this with the Srebber's IPO a couple weeks ago, but it just feels like this is something that we're going to see continuing for Open AI, Anatropic, and every new, you know, hot IPO that's coming out this year and coming years. I think that's right. I don't have that in the agenda, that topic in the agenda, but you're totally right.

I do think that the cerebris IPO was the shot across the bow where, like, you saw the cerebris, you saw the picture of the people on the trading floor with hyper liquid pulled up and you could see the red banner of, like, banned in your jurisdiction. But it doesn't matter because they were just looking at it for the price action. and that was like the first indicator that was the spark and everyone was watching Hyperliquid as just for just for the pricing data like it wasn't people on Wall Street probably weren't trading it or maybe they were

but that didn't really matter it's about the brand of Hyper Liquid and the effectiveness of the pricing mechanism showing up and now it showed up for the biggest IPO ever like this was game time for Hyper Liquid and the pre-IPO markets and they hit it out of the park and there's two more

gargantuan IPOs coming down the pike. So it's actually pretty cool to see something come out of the crypto world, kind of like the tail that wags the dog in the Tradfai world. Like that's one of our victories. That's a huge hyper-liquid victory. It feels like a little bit of a crypto victory, which we are desperately in need of these days. And so I kind of expect this to be an unfolding story as the private markets still get more kind of frothy and bigger. And all the Tradfey world kind of pays attention to the perpetual and all this kind of stuff. Yeah, totally agree. I mean, in some ways it reminds me of kind of the 24 election and polymarket and, hey, you have this, you know, third market that you're probably not paying attention to, but it's providing way more signal, way more insight and, you know, way more accurate information than you're getting through kind of your conventional signals. And that ultimately ends up being, you know, the way market the market goes. Markets don't move one asset at a time. One day it's Bitcoin, the next Nvidia, then gold, and then the S&P. But most traders are still managing their portfolio across different platforms, different accounts, different accounts,

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talking every once in a while, that there is an active token on the market that I want to pay us into and learn a little bit more. I go and dig into it. So this week is Gito. Gito is up 30% on the 7 day and 70% on the month. Gito, it's kind of like the flash blocks. Flash blocks had a baby with Lido, if you speak, Ethereum,

but it's on Solana. And so it's very, yeah, it's very intimately intertwined with Solana block build, and transaction ordering. And they, in May 5th at the Salon Accelerate Conference in May in Miami, they announced JTX, which is going to be an actual product rather than like a back-end infrastructure. Products for Solana is a front-end user interface that's a spot exchange and perp protocol using GEDO technology, but on the Solana blockchain.

Kind of just using, turning Solana into like a exchange app chain, if you will. You know, if Gito's successful, just use all of Solanas Blockspace. So people are pretty excited about the incoming JTX exchange. When JTX goes live, 80% of fees are going to go back to buy and return Gito tokens back to the GTO down, then 20% will go into the ecosystem for marketing, trading competitions, and growth. So that's why people are pretty bullish on JTO, the GTO token. I think it's just kind of interesting that like, oh, now Solana's got a,

perp decks and you know ethereum's got lighter as the perpdex hyperliquid is the spearhead of perpx is onto onto is releasing a real world asset perpx we're going to talk about coinbase in a second coinbase release pre-IPO perps everyone is doing perps left and right what do you think yeah i uh i think as always it's like it takes one person to kind of break up in the category and then you have many fast followers i think some of them definitely have um you know a right to be there and they take an original idea and twist a little bit or server you unique audience or, you know, have some interesting distribution story. Some of them, I will say also as a VC, do not. And as soon as, you know, some new category has been out for a year,

you get like a million new copycat kind of pitches. It is interesting to see, I would say, like the next evolution of a lot of these pretty OG defy protocols and that have maybe hit the ceiling of what their original market looks like. And so if you're Gito, okay, great, you have this great product on Solana works super well. You end up a pretty good share of legal staking volume. Where do you go next? I think if I look at something like etherfi right on Ethereum, there's only so big, you know, the restaking market can be and moved into building a neobank, which has been pretty successful. It seems like Gito is kind of going the opposite route of, hey, where do we kind of go next with the next big market? And obviously there's a lot of synergies between,

you know, a product that can do, you know, really good order routing and really good block building and something like a perp Dex, which, you know, naturally needs, you know, a matching engine that has fairness and transparency and, you know, good execution. So it's cool. I'm excited to see it in the wild. I do enjoy the perp phenomenon simply because it's the most revenue generating product crypto has ever produced since blockchains themselves. I think that's a correct statement. Or maybe Dex is like Unisot makes a bunch of revenue too. And so like that's what gives me some amount of like hope or hopium about the phenomenon of perp dexes. It does feel like the making of a bubble.

Like we are somewhere up the euthanasia roller coaster. I don't know quite where. Doesn't seem to be too frothy at the moment, but I don't know. I don't know if you have an opinion on this. I think at the very least I don't think we're seeing, you know, a bunch of leverage or credit being pumped into this. The Eagan is kind of to unwind at some point. Maybe like maybe you could argue with...

Ironically, though, the product is itself leverage. That is true. That is true. Luckily, self-contained. It's like a little implosion in a dome or something like that. But I also think we're working our way through the alphabet when it comes to the TXs. You know, we already had F-TX. There's no G-TX luckily. We got H-TX.

We got J-TX. I don't know with what's next, but, you know, I would encourage entrepreneurs maybe to, you know, think outside the box a little bit. And there are other naming conventions out there. Get away from the X. Yes. Yeah. What is TX? Is that a thing at all? I don't think so.

I forget what the... Actually, FTCS stood for initially. There was some acronym, which I'm totally... X is always for exchange. I don't know how T got there. Yeah. What did FTCS stand for? I'm just going to...

Futures trading exchange. I don't know. Did FTCS stand for? I got nothing, dude. Nothing. This is embarrassing. This is embarrassing. Futures exchange.

token exchange. That doesn't even make any sense. Future is exchange. But yeah, it, you know, not... Bad name. Bad name. Yeah. Probably don't want to follow in their footsteps. Let's talk about the Coinbase System Update. So they announced 21 products all at once. This was on June 16th.

Under this like everything, exchange brand and push, trying to become users' primary financial account, not just for crypto, but for everything. So some of the headline products that they released, tokenize stock. backed one-to-one by U.S. shares with on-chain dividends and shareholder rights. Pretty cool, but this is only for non-US customers of Coinbase, kind of ironic. But this does allow for 24-7 trading on U.S. equities. Kind of cool. In the coming months, they announced options trading for crypto and stocks.

They also announced real-world asset perpetual futures and pre-IPO perps, Anthropic and Open the AI, they hinted as coming soon. They also popping open the hood of Coinbase, they talked about. a unified order book liquidity, like order book platform for their U.S. bot, international derivatives, deribate, and so one single order book to power all of their front ends. They also announced private transactions on base to bring privacy to base and also Coinbase advisor. This is a Lincoln Merr's project out of Coinbase.

First SEC registered AI investment advisor. Seems pretty hypey. Tom, what do you? What's the most excited to you here out of all these products? I actually thought the base private transactions were pretty cool. I feel like we're seeing this, you know, privacy mini-renaissance, obviously starting with Zcash. And then I saw recently today or this week, Zama was doing these private deposit pools with morpho. And then we have this.

And so it feels like, again, this sort of missing elephants in the room. Sometimes it's missing. It's also an elephant in the room when it comes to crypto. And now we're seeing, hey, maybe there's some green sheets popping up around. bringing privacy back. I think this feels, I mean, cool speed of products. I think some of these are obviously, again, followers of other companies that have gotten there first and now Coinbase is being the second mover with their distribution.

But the question is just like, hey, can they actually get people to treat them as the everything exchange? And when they wake up in the morning and they want to, you know, go buy some SpaceX, are they going to think I'm going to go to Coinbase or they think I'm going to go to Robin Hood or fidelity or whatever my other brokerage is. And to compete, at least you need something special to get people. That's right. Yeah, that was exactly what I was thinking.

It's important that Coinbase becomes feature complete. And so I can buy Bitcoin alongside SpaceX and I want that in the same spot. And I don't want a new tab. I just want it all right then and there. But that's like kind of getting up to par. And they need to get there. I don't know why they would, why the generic user of the world, the generic investor of the world would use Coinbase over.

Robin Hood over interactive brokers. And so there needs to be a little bit of secret sauce there. And I don't quite know what they tap into in order to unlock that. Yeah, I do always think to, I think they could use a little bit of a rebrand. Ironically, I think actually... Are you talking about the UI, the UI of Coinbase.com? Oh, I mean, that I feel like there's always every two months they're moving things around. I think more weirdly enough, I think base would have been a great rebrand for Coinbase versus

base the chain. you know, when you're thinking about going to Coinbase, you know, the name really says it all. You're probably thinking about trading some coins versus maybe thinking about getting a mortgage or maybe thinking about opening a 401K, but a little minor knit. I don't know if that's minor because, like, crypto has the worst brand it's ever had ever. And I kind of don't see that changing any time soon. Like, crypto right now seems to be kind of fading into its back-end infrastructure era where, like, Hyperliquid is just trying to become a platform,

you know, Ethereum is becoming a platform. All the blockchaininess is fading away as designed, it was always supposed to be this way. And I think that kind of reduces our industry's ability to, like, change our brand because no one interfaces with us anymore. And so it's just left with how it is, which was FTCS and Donald Trump, like implosions and grifts. And I don't know how we like take control of our brand.

And that maybe that's bearish. Like, Coinbase could, to your point, just, like, step away from it and be like, we're just not a crypto company anymore. We serve crypto products. We also serve stocks. The fact that it's tokenized is not your concern. That's our concern. Like, you just buy the thing and we take care of the rest. We just help brokerages work.

Yeah, I think that's, you know, probably a much bigger, you know, audience today and seems to be the way even the crypto world is going. Or if anything, I think it's more, maybe more bifurcating where, you know, stable coins are very hot. So maybe they should call it stable coin base and do the other rebrand. You mentioned privacy and how privacy is having a little bit of Renaissance. This isn't in our agenda, but I do want to talk about NIR confidential intense TVL, which is climbing. It's still pretty small. So this is actually a little bit of old data. This is three days old.

I think it's past like 40 million. But what NIR is doing is providing confidential pools, kind of like Z-Cash privacy pools, but for other chains and other assets. So on here is a near. but also USC and Zcash and Tether and ETH. And so it's creating little privacy pools for other blockchains and it's also growing. There is a big privacy renaissance happening

at the margins. You know, Zcash is growing, NIR is growing, base has private transactions, Zama is doing stuff. And it feels good. It feels good that we are getting privacy in where, like it's kind of like the crypto industry putting our money where our math is. Yeah, again, it's been something that's been long promised and it's cool to also see

just the real adoption. I think about builders in the space and there've been a lot of false starts throughout the years, not for any particular reason, but hey, just the market wasn't there, the liquidity wasn't there, the demand wasn't there. And now people see, oh, if I wanted to live my entire financial life on chain, I probably also want privacy if I'm going to be spending, you know, with a debit card out of my wallet or you know, custodying my my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my wallet, I probably also want to be then, you know, go, go spend and, and not let everyone know, you know, what I hold. And, um,

I, again, I think the numbers, the numbers kind of speak for themselves. Are you a Zcash bowl, Tom? Uh, do you know, not financialized. We do hold, you know, um, Zcash. And, um, I think it has, you know, kind of a special, special place in the industry. And, um, obviously, give them a lot of credit for pioneering. I think a lot of the ZKP research that has influenced in a lot of other you know, downstream projects have ended up using. I want to bring up this post from Nathan McCulley, who works at Anchorage. He said, exciting launch today. Anchorage Digital's link to staking and trading for Hyperliquid is now live.

Clients can simply link their Anchorage Digital Staking account to any external trading account, no bridging, no changes to Cussi status, and no interruptions to staking operation. Why I think this is interesting is in the Trad world, you have segregation of, you have segregation of brokerage and execution. So the exchange does not also custody. And this is actually the same market structure that's emerging here,

where you have anchorage for custody, but you just plug in to hyperliquid to do exchange. And this is actually something that ironically, Gary Gensler always pointed at the crypto industry. It's like, look at these hooligans doing uncompliant things. We've learned these lessons. Don't conflate. Don't do what Coinbase is doing,

which is put custody and exchange in the same place because you have potential things that look like Alameda and FTCS. And we've learned these lessons. And all the people in the crypto industry, myself included, and I still am, are like, eh, it's just more efficient and easier. And this is what blockchain technology enables. Like actually, it's blockchains that are doing the custody.

And Coinbase is actually just the exchange, but yeah, new technology kind of breaks people's brains. I do find it interesting that we are now mimicking traditional infrastructure via regulatory compliance, but we're kind of doing it on our own. I don't know if you have any takes or any thoughts on that. Yeah, I think in many respects, this is kind of just an extension of the shift

towards off-exchange settlement for centralized exchanges that we saw post-FTX, where you saw stuff like, fire blocks and copper clear loop, you know, take off as a way to, again, segregate exchange from settlement. And I think, you know, know, I'm assuming a lot of Anchorage customers are probably asking for Hyper Liquid. I know I've talked to a couple different primes and trading desks.

And they have a lot of demand for hyperlode exposure, specifically people wanting to trade perps or other instruments on hyperliquid. And so the answer is, how do you go about doing that? Well, we can plug it in like we do any other exchange. And now it's a new venue that people are able to trade on. And so I think it's the cool thing about crypto, as you've been saying, is, hey, it's transparent and programmable. And so if you want to go and, you know,

custody your assets on a single exchange and trade there, you can. But, hey, you can also, you know, trade via ADEX and sort of see what's actually happening on chain. It's all modular and transparent, which is kind of the ultimate crux of what a lot of the technology is about. Yeah. Yeah, I just looked at up. Anchorage has about $28 billion in AUM, which now in theory is just like one click away

from hyperliquid. That was always kind of the problem with hyperliquid. is bridging on to the exchange. This is kind of fitting in one of my stories of the year I pay attention to. This is just my own internal model that I have about threads, story threads to pull on. Michael Saylor's stretch is like a story I pull on. And the platformization of Hyperliquid is a story that I'm paying attention to. Like how far can Hyper Liquid go from migrating from just being a first party exchange

that, like me, the user goes on to and presses buttons? versus becoming a back-end platform. And this is firmly in the latter camp of, like, this is hyper-liquid growing up and evolving into being a black backend platform, tapping into the AUM of the world. It doesn't matter where the capital is, but the capital comes to hyper-liquid because everyone wants to trade on hyper-liquid. Yeah, I think it's kind of another flavor of this defy-mullet idea.

I think of even, you know, Coinbase, that's more about integration. Yeah. Is that the rule? Maybe we'll debate this. We'll have a settlement offline. but it does seem like this is a natural way for these markets to end up. Again, like the internet

where you have different layers with standardized protocols that you really do their one single layer well and then kick the other responsibilities up to another layer of abstraction that can get more specific and sort of end clients. And maybe the answer is we have

one big global standard for liquidity and everyone else can build around brokerage or the own execution services or the own apps on top of it or whatever it might be. And so I don't know, it's very cool to see how rapidly this has been getting adopted as well as just,

again, it feels like this is kind of the boring revolution of crypto where you're using it in the back end and you don't even realize it. Yeah. Speaking of the boring revolution of crypto, crypto volumes are down, the lowest ever since September 2024, on centralized trading volumes. Meanwhile, real-world asset perps are hitting record highs.

And so we've seen this in the Coinbase S-1 and the Robin Hood S-1. It's just like crypto-trading volume, Bitcoin, Ether, the blue chips, and all the coins as well, just down. And revenue just down for these centralized exchanges as a whole. But real-world asset perp volume is up and to the right. And this really started with Hyper Liquid doing listing gold at the start of this year, right before the gold man. followed by oil at the start of the Iran War, and there's been a growth of real-world asset trading volumes on perps.

And so, again, this kind of is the story that we always said was going to happen. And unfortunately, it seems to coincide with like a lowering of trading volume of Bitcoin and Ether. Like now that we have like golden oil, traders are trading golden oil, and they don't really care about Bitcoin and Ether. But it does seem like the sign of maturity of like we have real world asset perps. I do think that there's a very big real-world asset perp story for the second half of this year. Yeah, I think like HIP3 volumes, I've already hit like 40% of hyperliquid volumes and I think are growing. And I think there's a good chance through the end of the year that we see a day where HAP3 volumes actually exceed the rest of, you know, crypto volumes on hyperliquid.

And other exchanges, again, probably looking very similar. I do think a lot of these assets and that this asset focus is very, very cyclical, right? Like, people want to trade oil when oil's very volatile and see some, you know, vol spike and then it goes back down. And, you know, a year ago, no one really wanted to trade oil.

And the beauty of a lot of these, you know, perp taxes is they are able to very quickly and aggressively list new assets as they come online. You have to wait for, you know, ID to list, you know, SKHonics. You can just go trade the perp, you know, today. And I think as long as, as we can see this kind of like hotball of money, you know, new focus asset dynamic.

I think it's actually pretty bullish for perps that have a lot more agility and abilities to list these new assets in the same way that I would say, you know, Uniswap did in kind of 2020 and 2021 where, you know, new DeFi token comes out. Well, it's on Uniswap before it's on Coinbase. And that is just a leg up and a liquidity mode that kind of builds on itself. Yeah, especially with being able to implement any asset that you can turn into a perp, which is anything. So long. is there's a bull market somewhere so long as there's a frenzy somewhere that's kind of bullish for the relevant perp platform the only thing that's like bearish for a per platform is if like there's a

global recession and all trading volumes go to zero because then your business runs out but i mean if bitcoin goes from 140 000 down to 60 000 but oil goes up gold goes up people want to trade those things anyways that's probably a decent amount of the reason why the hype token has just you don't see the Bitcoin bear market and the hype token whatsoever. Yeah, I think you just see this, again, this dispersion. I think that's kind of what a lot of these crypto exchanges are now trying to do of, hey, we need to diversify away from just crypto trading. I think, you know, Coinbase in kind of 2022 was really trying to push outside of just trading

and going into, you know, savings and yield and other types of assets, which you've kind of soon now manifested through their card and, you know, their other types of yield products. and maybe we're seeing that same kind of revolution, but moving away from even, you know, crypto-specific products as well. I do think, honestly, even in a recession, I think people are still going to want to trade. It's one of those like almost, you know,

recession-proof kind of things where humans love to speculate and it feels like the cultural trend of speculating is just as continuing up to the right. And I think short of some sort of, you know, external force is going to kind of revert it. It seems like this is going to be something is going to kind of proliferate. Let's get into my neck in the woods,

crypto media. Blockworks has acquired Masari. So, Masari is like an OG data analytics platform that also just integrated like a news and research engine as well. This was founded by Ryan Selkis. I don't know what he's up to these days. I have him used on Twitter, most people do.

And this is actually... He's running for president. I don't know if you saw. No. He's not. Let's go. No, he's not. Well, anyone can run for president if you know, you're 35 and born in America.

Is he seriously running for president? I don't know. Was Trump seriously running for president? Was Kanye seriously running for president? Who knows? Sure, but Trump was Trump. And that's like, you can't say, yeah. Let me put it this way.

He changed his handle. What's his handle? I think it's like Ryan Suckus 2028. No way, dude. Hang on, I have to let this up. Oh, my God. Wow. All right, good luck, Ryan Salkis.

Sorry, I have to show you that. Yeah, you really did. Anyways, Ryan Salka has left Missouri forever ago. I think he got kind of kicked out by the board because he was being deranged on Twitter. That's why I am reacting in the way that I am. It was a, I don't know if we know specifically how much was paid, but the one rumor is that that is somewhere north of $10 million for Missouri,

which is actually a pretty steep discount because there was a raise that Missouri did a series B back in 2022, which valued Missouri at over $300 million, approximately $300 million. And so it is actually just a sign of, A, media broadly, news is hard. Media companies are not what they are today in the world of, like, AI. Volume-based media is just not the same. Like, it's all kind of like creator-led media rather than volume-led media. And Blockworks got a deal for $10 million.

So congrats with Blockworks team for picking up Mazzari. Yeah, it's pretty crazy to see. I mean, I feel like when I got in the industry, Missouri was like, certainly authoritative. I mean, we had a Missouri sub. And I was thinking back in those days, I mean, SELCIS was also just such a force on Twitter and in person.

And it was a large part of the- Far more normal. I mean, yes, consensus was also just such a big event. There was Missouri main net. Yes, it was already main net. And, you know, I think, I think you want to kind of airs starts to leak out, it's hard to kind of plug the hole. So, but it is a good product.

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Let the yield flow with Bricks. Some exciting news. We are launching a new podcast to help people figure out the crypto cycle, how to navigate it. The best crypto cycle investor I know, his name is Michael Nato. He runs the Defi report. This is the guy that sent me a sell alert before the 1010 price drop happened. His cycle analysis has been absolutely on point. I've been following him for years.

And this year, we started recording weekly podcast episodes. we get into his portfolio, what he's holding, the market structure, entry targets, fair market value of Bitcoin and Ether, and where we are in the cycle, there's new episodes that are released every Wednesday. They're 30 minutes. They're short. They're punchy. I think this crypto cycle is harder to navigate than most. So let's do it together. Go subscribe to this podcast. Search the Defi Report wherever you get your podcast, YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or find a link in the show notes. There's a new episode waiting for you now. Tom, you got kids? I do not have kids. Neither do I.

So we're going to talk as if we do have kids. This is a Keir Starmer. He's the, what's his title? The Prime Minister of the UK, he tweeted out, I am simply not prepared to be a bystander when the safety and happiness of our children is at stake. We got governments coming to protect children by banning social media access for children under 16

to give children their childhood back. So this is the UK banning social media for children. Now, broadly, I kind of agree. Like, kids don't be on Instagram. go play tag. And at first glance, I think everyone can like kind of agree with that. But if you get into the implementation details of how you actually ban the internet for a specific person and not another specific person,

I think that's when it gets a little bit crazy. I don't know if you have a take on banning social media for kids, Tom. Yeah, totally agree. I don't think there's anything. I think most people would agree actually with keeping 116s off of social media. I think maybe one, the points of disagreement might be, you know, having this being implemented by the government instead of parents choosing to have this for their children, which I think most parents are probably choosing to have this for the children.

And then, too, like you said, how do you do this? You need more ID AIDS verification, which just ends up kind of slippery slope. This is obviously also honey pot for, you know, KYC information. And so I think that's kind of thing people, you know, push back on as today it's, you know, ID verification for kids. Yeah, tomorrow it's who knows what. this does see i know the uk is no longer europe but this does seem like a very europe thing to do and i don't really have too much faith in their leadership over there to be honest and so i am kind

of worried that europe or the uk is going to allow this foot in the door because it's like a slippery slope right like once one government figures out how to do this they kind of set a model for any other interested government to follow suit and you know you ban one piece of the internet over on our chore domestically in the United States, we had a piece of our internet get banned this week, and that was Fable out of Anthropic. You know, one service, one tiny little service, out of all the billion users of the internet,

like not too many people were using it, but still, government took down a small piece of the internet. And I don't want to see that trend grow. And the reason why I put this in the agenda is because crypto definitely feels like the bulwark against this. Like crypto knows no borders, knows no government. Yeah, you know, same thing with like VP. he ends. There's like anti-government, anti-border technology out there. And so this is something I'm

kind of keeping my eye on because if this gets a little bit too authoritarian, so it probably won't be next year, probably won't be this election, but I could see this being a growing trend into the 2030s, crypto is going to have a role to play here one way or another. Yeah, I think crypto and decentralized technology ultimately is it's the ultimate opt-out, right? A lot of private companies, you know, choose to implement these kinds of age limiting features or other limiting features being discord-added, you know, age-gating. Right. But it's a private company opting in,

and they use some kind of smart text. You're not uploading your ID or whatever. The problem is when you can't escape, what do you do? And I think always having an option to let people choose their own path is pretty important. Tom, that's all my topics. I got one more topic, but I want to throw it to you first. What are you excited about? What are you interested in?

What's rattling around in your brain this week? What am I excited about? I was looking actually at some of the new AI models that, again, in the spirit of letting people, you know, choose their own path, there's sort of this newfound, open source AI renaissance. And so people are pretty happy about GLM 5.2, which is a Chinese model that came out and has, you know, performance that is on par, maybe he's surpassing Opus 4.8. And people say, hey, if you orchestrated it correctly, it's similar to Fable or OpenRouter, which is a, founded by Alex Atala, pharmacy of OpenC. Yeah. We are recording a podcast with him next week. Oh, cool. Also came out with this sort of hybrid model

that allows you to stay together many different models and get sort of fable level performance. And so it feels like there's this cool undercurrent and sort of similarities actually between crypto what's happening in the AI industry right now in terms of a move towards open source and sort of self-sovereign compute,

which is, I think, a much more optimistic vision for the future than the alternative. Do you see that intersecting with crypto in any way, or is it just kind of like the ethos that overlaps? I think we see some kind of, you know, fruits of that today. I think just, hey, in terms of like, hey, you know, how do these things ultimately get funded? How do you actually access, you know, compute for this? If it gets restricted on a, you know, inference provider level, maybe there's a way to tap into, you know, a more distributed inference network going to actually access some of these models. But today, it's more of a personality and sort of

ethos alignment, I would say, where you see a lot of early crypto people coming to AI and vice versa, but ultimately driven by these same sort of ideas that, again, go back to kind of the early days of computing. There was one project I was talking to. There's a growing trend of AI labs, kind of bait in switching you with their model, where like they tell you one model, but then you ask it. And like, I would like to use this particular model. And then you ask the query and then they really just serve you another model on the back end and don't tell you and you know to some degree when I ask when I accidentally ask you know opus 4.8 max a stupid question I don't need it I can it can like downshift me but that's one thing if I'm if I'm like

actually being intentional about my work and they're telling me I'm using fable but I'm actually getting some sonnet I think that's a growing trend and I have seen a handful of crypto projects trying to go after verified compute I think this is what knock chain is going after. And so actually verifying the model and everything, like, end-to-end, is kind of like auditable and secure in the same way that we would expect our blockchains to be. And so this is also a growing trend that I know is out there. I'm definitely not an expert in it.

But like something is brewing over in that neck of the woods. Totally. And I think there's also this kind of private compute component in terms of just data. You know, people, I think, trust, you know, these chatbots with a whole lot of personal information that they probably would not trust even even Google with, not realizing that, hey, this is, you know, can be retained for, you know, arbitrary amounts of time by these companies that's subject to, you know, subpoena, can be trained out, a good leak, whatever. And I think that that it seems unsustainable to me that maybe a future is one where, yeah,

people that have their entire personal lives, you know, held on a single company's servers. And it seems like there's a move towards having, you know, local or distributed private data maybe accompanied with some sort of remote compute, but it does seem like these two are kind of going to collide at some point. Isn't everything you're saying is what Neer is doing, right? Neer is doing a lot of this, yes. I think it's like these sort of parallel currents between AI and crypto are kind of what I'm observing. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We got the USA game tomorrow, Tom. You're going to watch it? Probably not. I am not really a soccer fan. God, you're just not a sports guy. No, I mean. Neither am I, to be clear. Wait, wait. Did you wear a Argentina jersey?

is this? Yeah, you know, I'm, I get Argentina pride for some reason, like down into my soul. And so let me tell you about a trade that I made this week, Tom. There is the July 3rd Miami game, which is like the one J versus 2H group, and that is the first winner of the J group plays the runner up in the H group, or vice versa, or vice versa, one of the two. There's like an 85% chance that that's Argentina versus some. one and so I bought tickets for that game

on the chance that it's Argentina which feels it feels good it's probably priced accordingly but if Argentina doesn't advance then like then it's like I don't oh yeah you I could hedge it I could hedge it on polymarket which is exactly what I'm going to show you right now

that's actually not even where I was going with this but like if Argentina's got a 12% chance of winning the World Cup but let's go and see the actual chances that they win the the bracket Yeah, so Argentina, 84% odds on polymarket that it wins its J group. It has a game versus Austria on the 22nd.

And that's going to be like my ticket either goes up in value or it goes down in value if Austria wins. And if it goes up in value, it'll go up like 15%. But if Argentina doesn't make it, then the new game is Austria versus like, I think it's going to be like Uruguay or Spain or something. and that's just not as exciting because this is Messi's last World Cup and so I'm excited

I'm going to go down hopefully to Miami and watch the game but this all rides on Argentina actually making it through their group yeah I hope for your sake that they do because Austria versus Uruguay does not sound nearly as exciting but as Argentina versus Spain

yeah anyways that's the trade I'm in Tom thanks for coming on the show and helping fill in for Ryan always a pleasure to have you thanks for having me Bankless Nation, you guys know the deal. Crypto is risky.

You can lose what you put in. But this is Frontier. It's not for everyone. And we're glad you are with us on the bankless journey. Thanks a lot.