Bankless - SotN #49- The State of the Charts, with Ledger Status

Episode Date: June 9, 2021

In this week's State of the Nation, we bring on UpOnly co-host Brian Krogsgard (AKA LedgerStatus) to teach us about the charts. This is the official Bankless TA episode 📈 State of the Nation is live-streamed on the Youtube Channel – Tuesdays at 11am PT. This week's episode is airing two hours early -- 9am PT / 12pm ET ------ 🚀 SUBSCRIBE TO NEWSLETTER: https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/  🎙️ SUBSCRIBE TO PODCAST: http://podcast.banklesshq.com/  🎖 CLAIM YOUR BADGE: https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/-guide-2-using-the-bankless-badge  ------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 💰 GEMINI | FIAT & CRYPTO EXCHANGE https://bankless.cc/go-gemini  🦊 METAMASK | DEFI PASSPORT https://bankless.cc/metamask  🦄 UNISWAP | DECENTRALIZED FUNDING http://bankless.cc/uniswap  🔀 KWENTA | EXCHANGE SYNTHETIC ASSETS https://bankless.cc/kwenta  ------ State of the Nation #49: The State of the Charts Guest: LedgerStatus Bankless is not a trading or market-specific podcast by any means, but the chaos we have observed in the markets over the past several months warrants discussion. So we brought on Brian Krogsgard (AKA Ledger Status) to help us understand the price action in the markets from a variety of perspectives. Brian is a host on the Ledger Status and UpOnly podcasts, and co-founder of the FlipMetrics data platform. Brian introduces the concept of investing and trading as a pyramid -- at the bottom of the pyramid lies fundamentals and an overall investing thesis. As one moves up the pyramid, the time frames become increasingly shorter, and at the top are the pure psychological and analytical-based trades. Having sound plans throughout this pyramid is what makes for strong investing. Fundamentals, narratives, and tactics form a holistic approach which dictates how you should execute rotations and denominate wealth. Ledger screens by fundamentals, and enters by technicals, while keeping the tactical side of things as simple as possible to avoid "analysis paralysis." The technical top of the pyramid is influenced by market psychology, and is inherently chaotic and more difficult to grasp. With a broad approach to playing this money game, Brian went down the DeFi rabbit hole throughout the course of 'DeFi Summer' in 2020. The object of this game is a quest to get more ETH. Although there are countless ways to view a chart, these 'horoscopes' can easily become self-fulfilling prophecies when it comes to aggregate market psychology. ------ Resources: Ledger on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ledgerstatus?s=20  Flip Metrics: https://flipmetrics.com/  UpOnly: https://uponly.tv/  Ledger Status Podcast: https://ledgerstatus.com/  ----- Topics Covered: 0:00 Intro 7:12 Brian Krogsgard aka Ledger 10:53 The DeFi/Miami Rabbit Hole 15:35 Trading, Narratives, and Fundamentals 22:25 The Work of Savvy Investing 27:41 The Approach 36:30 Diving into the Charts 39:40 The BTC Death Cross 42:15 Ledger's Favorite Charts 45:23 Moving Averages 51:43 Where do I wanna buy? 55:26 Decoupling, Dragging, & PR 1:03:59 Visualizing 2017 and Psychology 1:08:00 The Not So Happy Scenario 1:11:00 The Happier Scenario (For ETH) 1:15:00 ETH / DeFi Ratio 1:20:28 DeFi's and Tech Growth Stocks 1:25:55 Flip Metrics 1:28:27 So... Up or Down? 1:35:15 Closing & Disclaimers ----- Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research. Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here: https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/bankless-disclosures 

Hey, Bankless Nation. Welcome to another state of the nation. David, how you doing today? Absolutely fantastic, Ryan, except the market is not feeling all that fantastic, even though I am. And that is what we are going to talk about today. Today is our first ever charting and technical analysis episode. Neither you or I are at all like TA people. But people have been like asking for a lot of clarity as to like what the hell is going on in the markets? Is the bull market over? Or is this just like, you know, a pause, a seventh ending stretch, hopefully not a seventh ending stretch, maybe a third ending stretch? I don't really know. But we're going to get into that in today's episode because we brought on ledger status from the Ledgercast podcast and also the Up Only podcast. And he's somebody

that I've been getting close to in this last like 12 months. He's the guy that I go to to just kind of like put the charts on my face and try and kind of get a feel for the market. And so I've always appreciated his content. And so we have two podcasters coming together. Do you want to hear something funny, David? Tell me around. I have not even looked at the price this morning. Like, I haven't even looked at it.

Oh, you don't know what's going on then, huh? I don't know what's going on. What, like, what price is Bitcoin? What price is ETH? Bitcoin's at like $33,000. ETH is at $2,300, you know, and some change. I mean, nowhere near where we were like two weeks ago, but like people don't like being down this low, right? Well, this is just it. So, David, I know we do look at the price more like more than once a day, certainly, but like neither of us are traders. That's why it's really cool to get Ledger on because I feel like I'm going to ask all the explain it like on five type of questions, right? Like is this TA thing? Is it horoscopes? Is there something else to it? Explain it to us. I've heard a lot about this Bitcoin Death Cross thing. I want to hear Ledger's take on all of this. So it's definitely going to be an interesting episode. I feel like I'm going to learn a lot.

lot and I can't wait to see Ledger pull up some charts and like show us how they work. Show us how a TA trader looks at some of these recent price moves. All right, David, we've got some other things going on in the bankless nation. We should talk about them. The first is we are looking for an editor and a writer. Bankless Nation, if that is you, send your interesting writing, D5 writing to applications at banklesshq.com. There will be a link in the show notes for a job description.

Talk to a lot of people. We are looking for the perfect, passionate defy user slash editor slash writer to help with the newsletter. Really cool position. If that sounds like you, set us your info. Dave, do you want to tell you about that? Yeah, I wrote the article, The Future of Work in the Bankless newsletter last week. It was mostly focused on DALs and Bankless LLC is not a Dow. But there's still some things that you can take away.

We work for protocol. working for bankless LLC is dope. So it's going to be a good time, whoever lands that position. So if you are an organized individual who can manage a newsletter and also are defy-minded and can write well, like you want this job. You definitely do. All right. We also had Vance Spencer on last week, but we put out the recording on Monday. Vance Spencer, that was our original defy bullcase.

And Vance is like a crypto-native defy investor who like has caught all. of these trends. Just a phenomenal episode. David, any words you want to say about that one? Yeah, Van Spencer, the Bull Case for Defy, episode number one, held the number one most downloaded episode spot on the bankless podcast for the longest amount of time. He eventually got dethroned because the bankless podcast grew, but we wanted to give him another shot to getting back on the number one spot. And so far, so good. And so there's also a reason why it was the number one downloaded because Van Spencer tends to get things right. And, And so that first episode was nine months ago.

We just recorded the second one. And so hopefully, Van Spencer gets back onto that number one slot. And also, hopefully, he is just as right as he was nine months to go for the next nine months. Spoiler, Van Spencer is still bullish on D5. That's for sure. All right, last thing, guys, of course, we wanted to let you know about this opportunity with Kiber. Let me share the screen. So Khyber has just come out with a dynamic automated market maker.

So they call it a DMM. What that basically means is they take sort of Oracle price feed information into their liquidity pools, and they really optimize yield for liquidity providers. So we think you should go check this out. You could do that at bankless.cc slash Kiber. And get ahead, they're going to be doing some liquidity mining a little bit later. That's coming soon. We'll update you on that when it happens.

But you can front run that opportunity and get used to using this system as a liquidity. provider. Khyber is like one of the OG automated market makers in the space. And what they've built here is super cool. So this is an opportunity for you guys to try it out and get ahead of what they're doing with their liquidity mining program. With that, David, I got to ask you the question. I always ask you at the start of these episodes, which is this, what is the state of the nation today, my friend? The state of the nation is charting. We are charting. And like all good, state of the nations, more than just one meeting. We are literally going to pull up charts and look at them and do charting stuff. But also, we are charting a path into the future, trying to get some clarity

as where does this market go? And so in the never-ending quest on going westward, we are charting west. And also, you might notice that my background is different lately because I am charting my way south. And so this time next week, I will actually be in San Diego, charting a new path. And so that's why my background is not as composed as it usually is, because your boys moving. Your boy's charting. Oh, my God. Triple meanings there, David? Short-term charis.

And you worked in like the DeFi journey and then you worked in your move all in one state of the nation. Wow. State of the nation is charting. Are you keeping some of those plants, my friend? Are those plants coming with you? I might have to drop some plants off at my parents. Oh, sad.

Yeah. Oh, no. They like plants too. But you're going to like buy on the other side once you get south of San Diego. Oh, yeah. Your stock up. All right. Like, it wouldn't be the same without the plants.

Without the plant maximism that you guys hear every week. Most of the plants are coming. Most of the plants, except for this big boy, he doesn't fit in the U-Haul. I'm sure listeners are relieved to hear that, though. All right, guys, we are going to be back with Ledger in just a moment. We're going to be charting the path in the future. But before we do, we want to thank the sponsors that made this episode possible. Synthetics is Ethereum's decentralized derivatives liquidation.

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Check out the power of AVE at AVE.com. That's AAVE.com. Bankless Nation, we are back here with Brian Kru, He, you probably know him as Ledger status. That's how I know him. He's a crypto trader and content producers, the host of the Ledger podcast where he and his co-host go through all sorts of different charts. They select different crypto assets, give a view of the short-term trading perspective here, while also they provide great commentary on the news cycle and how to inform future trades. I'm also super excited about his other podcast called Up Only, which he co-hosts with,

Kobe. It's kind of unscripted raw conversations, really fun stuff, just a great content producer in the space ledger. Welcome to Bankless. I think this is your first time. It definitely won't be your last, but it's great to have you, man. Yeah, it's a pleasure to be here. I've been enjoying y'all's shows for, I guess, over a year now. So certainly since I went deep down the DeFi rabbit hole, You'll do a great service, though. I've learned a lot from you and your guests, and I appreciate you having me. Well, look, this is mutual because we want to learn a lot from you on trading because that's not a subject that we cover so often.

But I am curious here. So, like, when did you go down in the Defy Rabbit Hole? Like, what time was that? It was around, I would consider it late for Defy summer, but for a lot of people, it was so early. It's probably like July of 2020. and I just some of the stuff going on started to click. I should have really, you know, if I was even had half a brain,

I would have realized why things that like laid the rails for Defi performed so well, like the Link Oracle stuff like performed well throughout the bear market. But things really started to click with me once I understood better about like what Avey was doing and what compound was doing and when yield farming came around. So I don't remember which project was first that I saw, but like I saw like yams come online and like some of the early farming stuff and curve launch and a bunch of those things. And then just went from there and took a small percentage of my total stack and said, I'm going to, this is my fun to use it or lose it. And it ended up being like one of the best decisions I ever made. I think I like 100 X just in that, you know, same year, the basis.

and more than that in total. And the trader in me then told me to rotate that back to Bitcoin. So I made pretty good calls all the way until the defy top in February on those rotations. But ever since the summer, I've been heads down from a defy perspective because to me it was true product market fit for Ethereum. That's super cool. And we want to get into that too. And I'm also curious, Ledger, did you go to Miami last week?

Were you there? I did go to Miami and I'm still I'm still in recovery. I'm too old for that stuff man. You would be both, man. Too old, but you're in your like you're in your 20s. Got to be Brian. Oh yeah, yeah, sure. Yeah, okay. Well, how was it? What was the experience like? Did you actually go to the conference or was it more like the side events? No, there was no conference for me. I was meeting up with some friends in the space and getting to know people that, you know, you turn an internet friend into an in real life friend. And David and I tried to get together a couple times.

It didn't work out. That was kind of like he said, the story of the event. There's just so many people to meet. And hopefully you came across as many as you could. But it was all, to me, it was all about relationships. Like, I can watch stuff online later if it's about the content. But it provides a great excuse to get together. Yeah.

It's okay. The crypto is a conference heavy industry, right? And everyone has, you know, put that on pause during COVID. but like we still we still ship post on Twitter and we still you know hang out in telegram and so there's a lot of like pent-up socialization demand that kind of got released extremely like violently all in two days and now we're all here trying to reflect on it yeah for sure it's it's all right though ledger i i haven't yet met david in real life either so yeah it happens the uh the first conference that was the first big conference i did too i went to one small conference

conference in 2018 where Josh Carpe Noctum, he hosts Ledgercast with me. We met in person there, and I met a handful of other people who I value like Naraj and Dez from Lightning and some folks that were local to D.C. But this was the first one where it was all out. And I agree with you. If you were to put a technical analysis term on what Miami was, it was like there was this long consolidation where there was no events and we were just ready for social volatility. So So we had a breakout of networking in Miami. There seemed to be some social volatility on stage, too. I was watching the question.

You're like, what is going on in Miami? Yeah, there's always antics like that. But, I mean, overall, it seemed like outside of a couple of issues, getting people in the door with tickets and stuff the first day, it's hard to run an event that big. I think they had like 20,000 people there or something. So I wouldn't envy. Yeah, I don't envy what they had to do.

No, it's amazing. It's amazing. They were able to pull that together. And like you guys are saying, the first since kind of COVID, so a lot of pent-up energy. For sure. I mean, think about this. It was the largest event in the world in the last 15 months other than the Super Bowl. No way. Yeah. Because of COVID, dude. Largest event in the world, though? Yeah, because COVID. Everything got locked down. Wow. I didn't realize that this is like first. That's pretty incredible. Well, good job. Good job. Bitcoin conference holders. All right, so let's start here.

We're starting to get into it as you're talking about like defy. And I just want to get the way you think about trading versus investing down. So I have kind of a mental model going into this conversation that there are basically like three different ways you can make money in crypto, right? I'm just going to throw this mental model out at you and get you to kind of like respond to it. give me your thoughts. The first is you can be, you can trade and be a trader, right? Do sort of what you're doing, looking at like shorter term price patterns and trying to figure out how to generate alpha and make money. The second, I think that's useful is you can be a narrative investor. So this is maybe a bit of a longer term, it's longer term oriented than trading and uses maybe a bit

of different information. We're basically doing some like meme prediction, right? Oh, layer twos are going to be hot. Oh, Defy Summer, it's, you know, Defy Summer is here. That's going to be the next thing. Oh, now it's Eith killers. So I better get some Eith killers in my portfolio. And you sort of try to front run the next narrative in crypto, the meme. Maybe if trading is like a days to weeks to months long kind of operation, narrative, you know, trading or narrative investing, I guess, is sort of a weeks to months long type of thing. And then you have the third category, which is the fundamentals investor is individual is kind of like, I'm going to buy and hold this thing, you know, three years, five years, long-term time horizon. I'm looking primarily less at the short-term

trading patterns, but primarily the fundamentals of the networks, like the teams, the communities, the, you know, on-chain transaction volume, all of the developers, all of the fundamentals that make up these projects. What are your thoughts on that distinction? Because like my, my thesis is, it's hard to be really good at all three. And so my advice is for people who are new to the space is kind of choose which one you want to be and get good at that. Because what I see a lot of people doing Ledger

is they try to do all three at once and they end up screwing it all up and losing a lot of money in the process. Any thoughts on that first? Yeah, I think I would consider it more like a pyramid, right? So I am from a fundamental perspective, I'm long crypto, right? I'm bullish on the role that crypto plays,

both the coin, Ethereum, and some other stuff. So treat that as my baseline pyramid that I'm going to have exposure to this space. The lower down that pyramid you go, the more you have to be right, though. Like if you're completely wrong on that, you're going to lose money pretty much across the board. Right.

And then the next one would be the narrative. That's more like a rotation game. So you can be, you can have that right. For instance, it could be, I think NFTs are going to be a big thing. Well, that could be the ERC 721 standard that I'm bullish on. But that doesn't mean you're going to nail it. Like if you are, you know, getting into a bunch of NFTs at the same time that it's like in mainstream news and on SNL and all this stuff, you could still miss that rotation trade. So that's that next level of pyramid.

But if you're right on that narrative, you have a chance to make a lot of money. The top one would be purely technical, momentum-driven, chart-based. And that's the place where your narratives and your fundamentals are the least important, and it's much more about the impulses and the psychology behind the charts. Like, oh, I'm bullish on D-Fi, so I'm going to buy ETH when it's 4,000. It goes down. You're instantly underwater, right? And the chart is just the psychology of how underwater you are and when it is hurtful enough to you to puke it up.

So all the chart does is represent that, much like you would analyze charts when you're doing any other type of fundamental analysis, like on-chain analysis. Here's all the ETH leaving centralized exchanges and it's going on chain and it's being used in defy. That's a chart too, but it's just a chart of what's occurring in a network. And when you see price action on a chart, the candles with price data going up and down, that's just people's psychology of when are they above water, when are they in profit, or when are they underwater and at a loss and trying to determine whether they cut their loss or not. And then the degree to which they do depends on did they go all in from the top of the pyramid perspective, but they don't really have that more fundamental thesis of the middle of the pyramid with the rotation or the bottom of the pyramid with being willing to be long, crypto and you see a scenario like what doge coin was and it's like they just see you know meme stuff

they don't necessarily have any belief in crypto so they're standing on the weakest foundation they're just right up there at the top thinking hey this is going to go up i got to get in before it goes up more they don't realize other people that had a much better uh understanding of where the market was in the middle of the pyramid with the rotation to uh you know doge is going to go up like they were way ahead of them. They totally front ran them on that move. So they have even less foundation to stand on. And they went too heavy in at the wrong time and they have the least understanding. So I actually am going to disagree with you a little bit. I think you can combine them, but you have to understand the way that you're looking at them. And I know people who make a ton of money and they're only

on the top portion, but they are fantastic risk managers. They're not going to sit there and average down forever. If you're willing to average in and DCA and put a percentage of your net worth in something over time because you're fundamentally bullish, it's because you're fundamentally bullish. You think crypto is going to replace existing financial ecosystems. And if you don't have that fundamental bullishness, eventually you're going to puke it up when the price goes against you. So Ledger, yeah.

So Ledger, this is a really good mental model, I think, of like, like thinking about it in terms of a pyramid, right? And so you've got all of these different layers you can enter in. You could play it one layer or you could play it all three. And like to your point, I mean, you're having a bad time now if in 2017, 2018, you decided the bottom of your pyramid was EOS or something like that. Like EOS is money. I'm going to denominate all my returns in EOS. You screw everything else up.

And that shows the risk of that player. But they're also the most right if you do it on synthetics. I'm true, true, true. Okay, so, so I agree with you there. Let me ask you this, though. Is it a very special person? Like, is it a very rare breed that can do all three layers of the pyramid well? Because this is why it's like, it's kind of like the new entrance. I feel like have this, you know, Dunning Kruger effect where they have this overconfidence to be like, yeah, I could do all three. I'll just sell the top. Whatever. Yeah, and then they get this, like they make some bets and they get overconfident because things are going well. And like when they compare themselves to their traditional

friends, they just did it like a 5x in two months. And of course I'm a genius, right? So can you talk about this? How much work does it take and how rare is it to get good at all three layers of the pyramid? Yeah, it's very rare. The easiest one to play and oftentimes the most profitable in the long term is that base foundation of the pyramid. Like I'm bullish crypto. I take my time. I'm long crypto for a decade. There's a lot of good reasons to be that way. Not discounting, for instance, like the tax implications. If you take capital gains as just a simple example, if you imagine a zero cost basis,

if you go 10x, it might as well be a zero cost basis, right? When you take profit on something like that, you are going to owe like 40% to the tax man at a higher income tax bracket. So therefore, you have to outperform holding by quite a bit in order to justify. that because then you're starting fresh again the next year. So buy, hold forever, dollar cost average in forever, play this surge onto the world. That is by far the easiest and in the sense of how to trade it and also the hardest psychologically to continue to tell yourself to hold to dollar cost average to stay in. It doesn't matter how much I'm up. We still haven't hit the

pinnacle like we haven't like replaced some of the systems that I believe that we're going to replace. So it's hard psychologically in that regard. The further up you go on that pyramid, the harder it is to be tactically correct. But if you're a good risk manager, you can also avoid being completely wrong on the baseline narrative. So like if ETH goes to zero, you don't necessarily get wrecked because you have a stop loss in your positions and you're willing to go back to the dollar or whatever like that. A Bitcoin maximalist or an Ethereum maximalist, a crypto maximalist, they're never going to do that, right?

They're going to be like, screw the dollar. I'm into these things that I'm in and I'm rolling on that train. That's just the bet I made. The further you go up that pyramid, the less they are attached to like making that bet, right? So then they're playing much more tactically. Most people are tactically not very good. So the safer place for most people is way down at the bottom. It's also the most profitable place.

All traders tend to screw this up at some point along the way. And if you come into trading actively versus long-term passive investing, you should prepare to lose. But it also does provide the most upside, especially when you prevent some of the 70, 80% drawdowns that can occur in a highly volatile environment like crypto. I really like this. pyramid model, even though the YouTube chat is saying, stop using the word pyramid. But like, so we have these three sections. You got the cap, which are the traders, the middle

foundation, which are the momentum investors, and then we have the base level foundation. And one of the reasons why I think crypto markets have always been so volatile, even in, and not volatile versus the dollar, but volatile in between itself, right? So like ether and Bitcoin can be volatile in relation to themselves and then dogecoin can be volatile in relation to other crypto assets because there's like this top level swarm of like traders that hippity hop around from different crypto assets as they are making trades right but there's that's leaving this very like like basal level of uh long-term focus investors and like all these traders are are trying to figure out what what to trade and ultimately they always

end up where the long-term people are if those long-term people are right, right? Like, there's a reason why there's a lot of Bitcoin traders because traders feel pretty safe trading Bitcoin because there's like this very established base of holders. And that's also becoming true of ether. And there's also, like, people will still trade. Like, we had this 2017 part of this cycle recently where all these 2017 tokens pumped. You know, like Denta coin came back. This is when Dogecoin started coming back. We had all this, like, part of this, like, recent, like, 21 bull market that was very reminiscent of 2017. And all the traders went all the way back to the 2017 tokens that were known for going up in 2017. And then they left, right? And, like, they went and went

somewhere else. So we have this, like, surface-level swarm of traders that keep on pumping different tokens at different times in the crypto markets. And I feel like you have the momentum traders trying to like figure out where those people are going, but then ultimately where people end up and where traders end up trading is wherever the long-term investors are buying and holding who are focused on fundamentals. How does that analysis land with you? Yeah, pretty well. And you know, the longer the technology survives, the more inroads it makes into whatever it's trying to disrupt, which nothing's going to, nothing's in a growth industry unless it's still trying to disrupt something, whether it's a tech stock for crypto.

And the longer it survives, the more it, the more it, you know, finds product market fit and an avenue for growth, the sure that foundation gets over time. And that's what we saw with Ethereum. It's a fantastic example because you could be critical of Ethereum for a variety of reasons. But there was a short-term product market fit of being a platform for creating ICOs in 2017. That just wasn't nearest firm of a foundation as what it started to develop with defy, which gives it a firmer foundation today. And as you come off the momentum trade, then that foundation is going to be stronger. It's going to rise up and it'll provide a better floor as long as they're right.

And then it's just a matter of whether it's the most profitable trade to be in or not. But that's why it's the safer place to be, as long as your baseline narrative, is correct. If you did the same thing based on EOS, you're not very happy. This is why you're not. You're not. This is why like so the base layer, that fundamental layer, the bottom portion, I'm going to say it again, I'm going to say it again, the bottom portion of the pyramid again. The bankless thesis is basically that if you're bullish crypto for this 10, 20 year decades long time horizon, that base layer shouldn't be US dollars. That base layer should be what we call crypto monies, right? And the two emergent crypto monies are

Bitcoin and Eith. And we probably at Bankless called Eith a little bit earlier when people were like, nah, no, no, guys, it's just Bitcoin. I was one of those people. I was one of those people. Right. Okay. So like a lot of people were like, nah, it's just Bitcoin. But we were like, no, it's Bitcoin and Eith, maybe a little bit earlier. But I, you know, we recently had the Three Eros Capital guys on. And it was super interesting to hear them describe. it because they seem to play at all three levels of the pyramid to you, sort of like yourself. But what they've recently switched over is like on a bigger billions item, I know, I know, but like yourself, right, from a high level perspective, ledger. So like, and what they recently

did is, and this astounded me, is they changed the denomination of their base layer. It was Bitcoin, and they swapped that for ETH. Now, they didn't say whether they, that's a temporary kind of swap or whether that's going to be like a permanent swap. And I think for them, because I don't know, it's like, perhaps we'll see. It depends. We might come back to Bitcoin. It might be something else in the future. Who knows? It might be neither of those things. Is that kind of how you see it? It's like the base layer is sort of how you denominate your returns. You could denominate your returns in US dollars, ETH, Bitcoin, EOS, synthetics, whatever you want. But is that what the base layer is, basically the denomination?

Yeah, yeah. For instance, I made a tactical move to cash for like 48 hours, right? And that was because I felt like the market was heavy. But my goal, because I still think ETH is going higher, a good bit higher, is more ETH out of that bargain. So if I don't accomplish the goal of getting more ETH out of that bargain, then I didn't do a very good job. I felt going to dollars in a tactical sense. was going to allow me to get more ETH. So I'm playing on my fundamental driving narrative, the baseline of the pyramid, is what I want. And the tactical person in me said, I think we're going down. That doesn't make me less bullish on ETH

in the long term sense. It just makes me tactically think the best way to get more ETH is through that trade. And yeah, I do approach it that way. I would not have denominated in ETH if, now I had to figure out this stuff, listening of shows like yours. I'm not trying to be this person. But without 1559, like, it doesn't play the same role to me as money. Like, it plays a highly useful asset in a network,

which from a utility perspective may still be greater than Bitcoins, even without EIP 1559. But that provides the economic incentives to want to hold Eath rather than use it. The scarcity game. And I hate to be like the gold versus oil person, but prior to, to 1559, that's how I viewed these two assets. I viewed Bitcoin as digital gold and Eath as digital oil. 1559 seems to be changing that narrative to where it becomes a store value. And I'm willing to make that bet. That's the middle of the pyramid bet, though, right?

I'm still in long crypto, the middle pyramid bet was, hey, this is DFI summer. Hey, this is Bitcoin fall. Hey, this is altcoin at pump everything in January. but I felt defy needed to be repriced more than anything. Now, you can miss that shuffling. I totally missed it because you know what I missed was in February. I told myself, like, here's my exit event for the defy repricing. Here's what I want.

It hit. I didn't do it because I wanted a little more. And it was like that's when, you know, the speculation really goes down the waterfall and you hit like the non-Eth defy, the BSC and Solana stuff and all that movie. I missed that rotation. Now, that rotation was the top of the pyramid for me. That was purely tactical based on greed and desire in the market for things that go up. My fundamental thesis was still in defy, and I held to that, but it cost me because

defy consolidated and went down while other stuff like did multiples. So that's how these things kind of work together. And to me, I just want to square my current trade on the fundamental thesis. as you go down that pyramid. So that's why I said, like I kind of disagree that. I've always said, like, I want to screen by fundamentals and enter by technicals. So the tactical trade is always what's going to cause me to enter and exit. But the fortitude I have for the trade or like the time period or my ability to baghold ETH

when it like technically doesn't look very good is going to be based on how I feel about that foundation. So Ledger, at the very base layer, the basal layer of this whole foundation, what do you denominate in, right? So it sounds like eth is sort of close to the base layer, but it's also still mid-layer, right? You're waiting for some cows like EIP 1559. Are you just trying to acquire more ETH so that you can flip into Bitcoin?

Or ultimately, is it all like US dollars at the bottom? Well, when the market was younger, I knew how many ETH or how many Bitcoin I had. As the market advanced, I know much closer like how many dollars I have in crypto. So I think my denomination has switched a little bit to dollars of late because I can't tell you like how many eth I have right now. I can't even tell. I don't know how many Bitcoin I have.

You know what I mean? But I roughly know how many dollars I have. So I guess at this moment I'm denominating in dollars. Now, all through D5 summer and then like all through the fall, I could have told you exactly like what I had in ETH, what I had in Bitcoin, which one was the right one to be in and which one was the right one to denominate in. but this cycle has been parabolic or was parabolic the parabola broke the that exponential growth broke down and somewhere along that line I guess I became a little bit of a dollar maximalist not on purpose and I haven't done a great job of it you know it's not like I'm sitting here at my all-time highs but like I want to be cognizant of what's my dollar basis but that's still a

rotation to me it's not the like 10 year the 10-year basis because I just think all this is still young. Ledger, this is really great. And the very next thing we want to do is get into these charts for you to tell us that same story through the charts. We're going to look at Bitcoin US dollars. We're going to look at ETH US dollars. We're going to compare the last bull cycle to this one.

I'm going to ask you about the death cross. I've heard about what it's like this Bitcoin death cross thing. Is that real? But guys, before we do, we need to thank the sponsors that made this episode possible. And we will be back here with the charts in just. a few minutes. Bankless is proud to be supported by Uniswap. Uniswap is a new paradigm in asset exchange infrastructure. Instead of a cumbersome order book system where trades are matched with other humans, uniswap is an autonomous piece of software on Ethereum, which is what Ryan and I call a money

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but paid to you in your preferred crypto asset. When I get my Gemini credit card, I'm going to make sure that I get my cash back in ETH. So whenever I buy something, I get a little bit of ETH bonus back to me at the same time. You can open up a free account in under three minutes at Gemini.com slash go bankless. And if you trade more than $100 within the first 30 days after sign up, you'll be gifted a free $15 Bitcoin bonus. Check them out at gemini.com slash go bankless. All right, guys, we are back with Ledger. Now we are going to open up some charts,

and Ledger's going to school us on how to think like a trader here. Okay, I got to start with this question, Ledger. Let's open up the Bitcoin U.S. dollar chart, if we can, because I've heard much talk about this thing in Bitcoin that could be happening, will be happening if Bitcoin price doesn't go up in the next days to weeks, called a death cross. Can you explain what that is, if that's even relevant,

does it matter? Like it's been all over the place from traders I follow. Can you talk about that? And what is this chart telling us? Yeah. So I want to start with basically, I think it's a meme

because it moves too slow. Most people, when they talk about what a death cross is, they're looking at a 50-day and a 200-day moving average. I'm looking at simple moving averages here If you do exponential moving averages, it weights the near-dated candles sooner. I like to keep things pretty simple when I do TA.

And the death cross is when the fast moving average, this 50-day moving average, crosses below the slow moving average or the 200-day moving average. So if those cross, they basically say it's game over, go home, it's done. Right. With certainty? In crypto. Well, it's not with certainty, in my opinion. Now, you can look at examples where, yes, that's true.

But if you look back here, let's say you did that and you didn't exit until it actually occurred. Well, Bitcoin on that day was at like 7K. And then it spent, I don't know, a year, like hardly below that. So did it really matter? No, because it didn't really have that much lower to go. You didn't accomplish very much, especially if you take this out of log and you look at where that occurred. It was here. Okay, so like you're going to tell me now we entered a bare market after we've gone from 20K to 7K, that doesn't accomplish a whole lot.

So I actually think crypto markets move very quickly and a death cross, meaning you're looking at one moving average relative to another, is a meme. And oftentimes by the time it occurs, you're like way too late. Now, there's multiple ways, if you'll let me like indulge myself a little bit here. There's multiple ways to use moving averages. It is actually my favorite thing to use, but the higher time frame bias and then the price relative to the higher time frame moving averages are what I prefer. So let's stick with the slow moving average. The 200 day and the 200 week are by far, in my opinion, the most important signs of health in the market. And in this case, we did not actually find support by this green 200-day moving average.

Now I've got this white one. This is a 20-day moving average. But what we did find is rejection from both the 200-day and the 20, which gives you some degree of bearish confirmation here. So I'm much more opinionated about price relative to the moving average as a whole than I am two moving averages relative to one another. One other way that you can look at it is price, how far extended is it from a moving average.

Now I'm going to show you the chart that is by far my favorite macro analysis of Bitcoin over the years. And the only reason I say that is because it called three, three macro bottoms, which we don't get macro bottoms. Right. Yeah, pretty much. Like ever since it existed. If you go further back, it didn't, you know, that moving average didn't even exist. So the 2015 bare market ground along the 200-week moving average and eventually pushed above it. In legacy markets, and crypto is no different than legacy, it's just price on a chart.

In legacy markets, this is the sign of really it being over or not. That marked the bottom here. And then notice here in December 2018 with a re-test in February 2019, it was a double-tap, absolute bottom. And then in March, this was the greatest, I don't know what you call it, like, you know, force majeure type event ever in markets. And on a weekly basis, it still secured that 200 week moving average, which basically means this was all just forced liquidation cascade type stuff. So I'm calling that a win for the 200 week as well. So, inevitably, when we have another bare market, whether it's a fast one or a slow one or whatever else,

you will be able to find me as a buyer at the 200-week moving average. Right now on Bitcoin, that is at the low, low price of $13,000 because we can spend years away from it. Now, within a healthy bull market, that's why you use, if you're doing a trend analysis strategy, that's why I would use a faster moving average. historically this 20 week moving average whether it's legacy assets or crypto is very handy and that's essentially what we rode in bitcoin throughout the bull market like every capitulatory bottom we did not break below it when we did the market was over and then look we used it as resistance when we flipped it the bottom was in now this was a choppy moment for it the faster the moving

average the faster the trend strategy you're using the easier it is to get faked out from it. Now look up here. This would tell us that we have some trouble on our hands, right? From a fundamental perspective on Bitcoin or fundamental technical analysis, it's not, you know, the fundamentals of technical analysis would tell you that we entered the danger zone below 45, 46K. That is where it's telling you, you need to be careful. You need to consider risking off in that level of pyramids. your rotation may be telling you on that middle part of the trade to consider dollars. What, now what you do from here is a bit of a challenge, right? Because this is no man's land if you're just using these two examples of moving average.

One other element, if I go to Ethereum, if it will pull these moving averages up for me, it's funny enough trying to calculate them. There we go. Ethereum maintained that same exact moving average. average. In crypto, we have this thing where everything's quite correlated, except for every now and then there's outperformance or underperformance of one to the other. So on that same basis, it was telling you to do absolutely nothing yet because you're sitting right at support. Now, me, with my Ethereum bullishness of late, with that rotation trade, I said, okay, well, I guess I'll do nothing,

even though Bitcoin was like screaming at me to get out. So that's why thus far, I've maintained my general bullishness on crypto markets. So that's kind of the baseline thesis there. One other element here, I was extremely bullish on Ethereum in mid-2020. And if you looked at ETHBTC, it was getting obliterated back here. But I got very bullish because this 200-week moving average is just appearing for the very first time on Ethereum. And historically, when you move price above, that is like.

like your ask Stanley Druckenmiller or like these famous macro legacy people, they are looking at this. So if you talk about your institutional money, they are definitely looking at something like a 200 week moving average and the price going above it and then the price working off of the faster moving averages. When it gets more dangerous is when it's like 100% above the fast moving average. So this is how you can tactically, even if you think it's horoscopes, you can tactically use it Because Ethereum, in this case, when 140% above the 20-week moving average, which basically means relative to itself, it is moving very quickly. So that's the type of thing that could have told you it might be a good time to start taking profit,

which you feel that in your gut sometimes as well, because you're like, oh, wow, I was euphoric about $2,000 ETH, and now it's $4,000 ETH. And then when it dumps, you're like... And also, I feel like this is a little bit of the coordination game, where people are seeing Ether move too quick. versus itself and it kind of turns into a game of chicken where all the people who are holding Heath are looking at everyone who's also everyone else who's also holding anything like hey like are you selling like you better not be selling because if you're selling I want to sell and some of these people held through some deep darkness in in winter time all the way down to 80 dollar

eth and so they're just like wondering should I sell like at 4,000 or like should I wait for 5k or something right so that that's kind of a summary I guess of using trend analysis in TA. One other thing I'll show you, and there's a lot of power to this, and I think it has a great deal of merit, is just purely horizontal levels. The reason I say it has a lot of power

is because when you're talking about moving averages, you're trying to combine everyone's psychology there, right? Because you're saying, on average, this is where people bought over time because that's what it is. A pure horizontal is more where you have like this congestion, of buying or selling. So $19.50, $2,000 ETH is a good example of that, where it just failed to get past it multiple

times. So then when it did, that's where we really found significant support, even in the face of sell-offs. So here you have WIC, WIC, WIC, WIC, WIC. So after it had broken out and spent quite a long time under that level, well, then when it was topside and coming back down, people were more confident in buying. it. And that's what really kicked off that parabolic move for Ethereum. And notice it's confidence, right?

That's right. They're able to, they feel comfortable buying with confidence and they go in for that move. And lo and behold, even with the massive selling that we've seen recently, that's where you finally found your buyers, because that's where the Wix exists, because the daily close was significantly above the lows of the day. So this was more of your intraday, very top of the pyramid people trying to buy and capitulating or other reasons, a variety of reasons, people on leverage getting completely wiped. And all these things can kind of go into your strategy. But when you move down 40%, 43% top to bottom in one day, that puts a lot of carnage in the market. But even in that scenario, we found buyers eventually. And then here we found more buyers as it retested,

kind of thrust it down into that zone. And when I do TA, it's complicated because none of this is easy. You could say, well, I just bought the horizontal level because it went back to 2000. It just retested that level. You could say, I sold because it went below the fast moving average. You could say, I bought because all open interest on derivatives and margin got completely wiped out. Even people who were pretty safe and they were only using, say, Ave for their leverage, you know, like and they were borrowing 30% against their basis, much less the 20x degenerates on, you know,

centralized exchanges. They all got wiped out, right? Like everybody felt to squeeze. If you are in, have any exposure to markets and you have a 40% down day, you feel the squeeze. So in that type of scenario, it's more than just like, here's what the candles tell me. It's also like, okay, everybody got wiped out. Who's left to sell? Like they were forced to sell.

Now all you have is the people. like your you know your Ethereum at $80 type people except this time it's at $2,000. So that gives me some degree of confidence that as we kind of pulse down now as bad as it looks, I actually think we've probably made the lows back here because like what happened in COVID, you just kicked anyone out. Like, and if they didn't survive it, they're just gone now. And so I actually feel like we're doing okay. That said, if you want to continue the strategy, you will use these levels.

to help inform you at the top of the pyramid to make those tactical moves and then use the middle and bottom portions of that pyramid to reinforce your broader decision making. Now, if we do impulse lower, you already know Ryan, who does not TA, where do I want to buy Ethereum if it continues to go lower, right? Can you make a guess? I'm going to guess that 1767 mark right there. Because that's where that 200, yeah, well, this will move over time, but I am going on a trend following strategy.

The health of the market is going to tell me that I should be a comfortable bull market buyer above that 200 day, even if we've lost the faster moving averages for the trend following. So people sometimes like to troll trend following. But if you look at legacy markets, this stuff works on a historical basis very well. What's the troll for a trend following? I've got to say, like, I've never seen just a very concise extrapolation of trend following. But I really like it because it's so much, like it's got this long-term view perspective on it. But like what's the bear case for trend following? So people I respect, even my co-host on Up Only, Crypto Cobain, they're like, well, of course it hits the moving averages because it's just an average of historical prices.

It's got to hit it eventually. And that, but my thing is that's also my point, right? like so we we both agree but he's like of course it hits it that doesn't necessarily mean I want to buy or sell it based on that my thing is I just have plenty of historical evidence where it likes to bounce off some of these levels however you can totally and you can probably already feel this based on what we've talked about hit yourself with analysis paralysis looking at too many things so this is one strategy this is using two moving averages a 20 period moving average in a 200 period moving average, primarily in a daily and a weekly time frame to make both

tactical and long-term macro decisions, with 200-week moving average for those long-term macro, tactical with that 20-week or 200-day, that kind of stuff. To me, it's helpful. If I follow a plan and I say, look, I'm just going to risk off. Maybe it's only taking off my margin positions, because remember, we have this long-term fundamental thesis that we're bullish eth so maybe I take off my margin positions when it loses the fast moving average but I don't actually feel compelled to take off my long-term holdings unless I lose something much more fundamental like this 20 like this 200 day like say we go below it and then you know we're battling it from beneath that could be a signal that hey this market needs a lot more time to repair itself and I have to

make those decisions later each trader every day has to determine how they're going to play this And that's why the further up that pyramid you're trying to play, the more difficult the decision-making is. Because if you're just playing off the basis, the bottom-line one, you just keep dollar-cost averaging in as you have the ability to do so to the degree of which you are willing to have exposure to this market. However, somebody always loses because you know what? There's a lot of volume up here, a lot of people that are new entrants up here. They are the ones feeling the heat today. Now, Ryan and David are not feeling the heat quite as much today. because you guys were buying when ETH was $300 and below as much as you could, allegedly.

So you don't feel the heat near as badly as someone who was like, oh, yeah, Ethereum is pretty cool. But they're hearing about it for the first time when it's $3,000. They are 10x more expensive per ETH than someone buying at 300. So that's where that psychology comes in and this capitulation comes in as they just give up and move on. And they're like, oh, no, I've messed up again. Okay. But Ledger, it does seem to be the case that the lower you are in the pyramid with kind of even this trend following, the easier the decisions are. Oh, the more obvious.

The higher conviction that you have. Yeah, the higher conviction you have and like the more obvious the decisions are, right? So like somebody who's more holder oriented like me, more fundamentals oriented, right, might still be able to incorporate a little bit of this sort of analysis. to give them an edge toward the bottom of that pyramid without going full all the way up the pyramid, full TA on it. That's right. They totally can't. And that's why if someone tells me, hey, you're on a deserted island. You can only have one thing.

I'm going to say, give me a weekly chart of whatever I want and the 200 week moving averages on it. You can always find. That's what you want on deserted island? They're like food or like ship? You know, like I have no other information about what I'm trading. There's plenty of things if I'm actually deserving what I don't want to be trading. But if I'm trading, that's what I want. And I can show you in chart after chart.

Now, you have to be quite patient if you're doing nothing but playing a 200-week moving average. You can see here, I mean, Ethereum, it didn't exist back here, but it lived under it forever. So it would have told you buy Ethereum relative to BTC at 0.042. like when it finally got that break above it. Now, I may try to preempt such a move, but nevertheless, that's what it told you to do. And on that long-term decision-making, relative to ETHBTC, for example, that was a pretty nice move and a pretty nice trade for you. In fact, you doubled or, yeah, you know, if you, let's say you saw it right this moment, you're up like 100% relative. to BTC. Now that's even if you denominate in BTC, now you have twice as many. So that's how I'm

approaching this from a technical perspective and it has absolutely nothing to do with my denominate in BTC or denominate in ETH. You should be perfectly willing to trade ETH if you think it's going to increase your BTC. These longer term trends I think like speak to me. I didn't yeah, I guess this is kind of cool. I'm actually considering, you know, adding this to my toolkit. you go. One of the reasons Brian, why I wanted to bring you on is to help Ryan improve his trading skills. Because on the way, figure out how to work trading view. On the weekly roll-ups, I need him to get a little bit better at trading view. embarrassing. All right. So like, Ledger, let me ask you this, right? So maybe if we could

just do a quick summary of what the long-term charts are telling people on the Bitcoin US dollar chart and the ETH US dollar chart. So it appears from everything you're saying that, that on Bitcoin, US dollars, it's not looking great, but like it's not looking like we're about to you. It's not like early 2018 and the bull in the bull market's over, but we're just in this like no man's land period of time. So we've got that as context, right? And then on the ETH chart, it looks to be the case that ETH actually looks fairly strong. We've cleared out a lot of the leverage and the margin in the system. We've sort of bounced back. It's actually looking good. So if this is the case, if we get a bearish scenario for Bitcoin for a while, this is no man's land. Bitcoin is

like the largest asset by market cap. The meme is that Bitcoin leads and all the other coins sort of follow. What does that mean? What does that mean about, I guess, where we are in the cycle and how this is all going to play out, summarize it for us? Yeah, as much as you saw that relative strength on Eith, Bitcoin still tends to have its way. And so, terms of affecting all other markets when it goes up or down. We're at an interesting inflection point today. I talked about the importance of those horizontals, the most important of all horizontals, whatever your prior high was. Well, 20K that we broke through, that was what enabled us to have that impulse in Bitcoin first to 38K or 40K and then all the way to 60K.

what's terrifying now is this is really the only like daily horizontal level that we have and we're sitting right on it at the time of recording. So what you have below this is basically this large air gap where you have to find out where are we going to have willing buyers. If Bitcoin loses this, it can drag other markets. It would also probably pull Eath below some of those key markets like that 20 week moving average. And this is how you have to play that balance to try to figure. out where in the pyramid do I want to play my with my brain right now? Am I going to be tactical

or am I going to be true to my like lower down the pyramid fundamentals? Bitcoin is certainly showing significant weakness. The only strength that you can really lend to a Bitcoin thesis is that it's down 50% from its highs. So if we are going to maintain a bull market, a 50% drawdown is a buy, not a sell. If we're going into a bear market, there have been times where we've gone down like 80%. So if you've never sold any Bitcoin, are you going to want to sell it right here and take a tax event and all these other things? Probably not. But are you like looking at this tactically and thinking this is healthy? No. But yes, on Eath, it is still looking at, this is the same chart, same time frame, same moving averages. It's telling you, don't do a thing until this goes below like 2,200 or so

on this weekly chart. Right. And what you're saying is you're saying, like the, the BTC US dollar price is given you the spooks and the ETH chart is just do it is not doing anything but what you're cognizant of is that if Bitcoin doesn't find support literally like right now yeah then then it can drag ETH with it like during this show yeah the way to get the way to get ETH to like 17-1800 is by Bitcoin essentially losing that gap that I just showed you and like Bitcoin goes and pushes deeply into the 20Ks, that's how you get E7,800, 1800, like, and really feeling like we, you know, should have risked off a little more than we did. If Bitcoin finds support, and that's why these, like, timeframes are important, like a daily

close is important. If Bitcoin can find support, actually feel very good about ETH also holding these higher lows, like, you know, it's higher than it was the last time it made a low, and continuing to consolidate. the picture you used on the cover image of this video was basically a thesis that, you know, East just going to go sideways. And that's basically in this example of Bitcoin is struggling. Bitcoin has a PR battle right now going on.

Like the energy stuff, ETH has a solution to that, right? Like ETH 2.0 is all about moving to proof of stake off of proof of work. Bitcoin has a battle that like globally between that and the criminal enterprise crap and all this stuff is it's its greatest challenge to its network effects since the B-cash fork. And the network effects rule all. So this is putting my fundamental hat on for a second.

Wait, no, isn't this the middle of the pyramid? Isn't this the narrative trading? Yeah, it is. PR battle is a narrative trade. That sounds like a narrative. That's right. That's right. Because we believe that all that stuff is mostly baloney.

Like there's good reasons for there's renewable energy. You could talk Nick Carter about that stuff. but with me and my narrative and how I want to play this trade, that's going to take time for Bitcoin to repair itself on. And ETH has much cleaner answers to all of these things right now. Plus it has the potential bump of metals or whatever of EIP 1559 and monetary change. And plus it has the amount of transactions and desire to do activity on the chain and yada yada. So in that rotation trade, as long as Bitcoin can repair itself,

I will maintain bullishness on ETH, but it may take some time. Basically, as all these people who bought too high, they're going to be happy to sell you their coins when they break even. So you have to go through what's called like a wall of worry on the way back up. As those coins shift back to stronger hands, et cetera. A relief. Okay, Ledgers. All right.

So one thing David and I have been comparing this to you, and it's hard not to, is 2017. Right? And like in particular June, July, summer 2017, when Eath hit like 420 and then it dropped all the way down to the hundreds and then it was sort of flat for a while. In the meanwhile, Bitcoin, I sort of remember this, just kind of sat there. It's mostly flat. Do you think that this is like 2017 in any way or is 2021 its own thing and like, are you like, guys, stop comparing this to previous cycles? You know, the data doesn't fit. What's your take?

That is my like dream scenario because this is like everyone in the world of crypto. If you're going to say, hey, draw me an ascending triangle. They'll say, okay, we'll go look at 2017 Eath. Now, it got obliterated relative to Bitcoin here because Bitcoin did run some during the summer. But on the dollar basis, I've never had better conviction in a trade than buying Eith like 300 to 350 anticipating its breakout. Now, I didn't hold it all the way to 1400. I wasn't crazy. These things tend to go further than you anticipate.

But this was kind of a classic higher lows, equal highs. You know, you just bang into the ceiling of that thing enough times. Eventually it breaks. And from a technical perspective, that's our dream scenario today, that essentially we're framing such a triangle. And then we go and we spend potentially all the way until the fall without a new high. but we kind of tap into it a couple times. And then we get kind of our end of year seasonal run pushing the highs.

And that's where you get your 7, 8, 10K, ETH type of move. Everyone is euphoric. And Ryan gets to retweet ETH at 3K is hilarious. I've got that scheduled. Yeah, all right. So Ledger. tell me this. Riddle me this. It seems like what you just said is that we are possibly setting up for that same exact ascending triangle. If enough people also watch that, does it become true? That is where TA starts in the first place. You know, the 200 day moving average, I think forever ago it was like the markets roughly open 200 days a year. So therefore, 200 day moving average is the annual average price of an asset. Well, we're in 365. So why don't we use the 365 day moving average? The answer is because everybody looks at the 200.

So this is the same thing. If people see something over and over and they all agree, they reach consensus that it's the most logical next outcome, then these things can become self-fulfilling prophecies. So yes, you can call them horoscopes, but it's also this is what people look at. They look at what are the previous highs? What are the, you know, what's the resistance of, of where people are going to be happy to take profit or to risk off because they don't know if it can make a new high. That's why it becomes a repeating high. And as it comes down, they're like, okay, well, now I've lowered my price. That's how it becomes higher lows.

So history does not always perfectly repeat itself, but it can rhyme on these charts and you can see it play out. So yes, my hopes, my dreams, my Eiff bull thesis is all in this. So would I love to see this? Yes, that's the dream. Will it happen? Screenshot this, David. Will it happen? I hope so, but it'll probably look a little different than we all anticipate.

So first of all, Ledger. Markets are weird, man. They're weird. Like, this is very strange. But psychology is weird. And I'm trying to visualize psychology. So that is quite a challenge. Okay.

So we talked about the happy case, the happy situation. And the happy scenario is we're in 2017, it's mid-2017-ish. What's not-so-happy scenario that you see? The not-so-happy scenario, and I'm going to stick to ETH here. Sorry, I had to ask you. Breaking the rules about bullish content only. I'm curious. I need to know this.

I'm going to stick to ETH here, because with Bitcoin, I think we know what it's going to look like. It's going to look like the regulatory hammer coming down. It's going to look like the energy debate really going in favor. of the people that don't like proof of work. It's, you know, those things. More Elon tweets. More Elon tweets.

Like, just get out of here, buddy. You can't stay away. Once you get in, you're done. You've been the second richest person in the world. For Eith, in my mind, we are all assuming 1559 massively decreases the supply, like by 90%, the triple halvening type of effect. Well, what if the move to layer two actually makes it. so that fees are just so much lower that we're not burning near as much as we otherwise anticipated.

What if we can't get consumer apps built on Ethereum so that like the native surge of transactions and activity on the Ethereum network does not go up? What if there's smart contract risk that we don't anticipate or what if the yields go to zero so that it's not worth yield farming or participating in Defi like we anticipate? We will see those things happen on a chart. If they happen, our 10K-Eath is our pipe dream, and we'll see something like this 20-week moving average fail, and we'll see a grind-out, and we'll have to find out, can we hold prior highs, like the 13-400 type of level that we had back in 2018. Now, to some people, they're like, that's fine. Do it. I'm still bullish on ETH in the long term. You know, we're just getting a fraction of all people on there, but that's not good in the near-term because right now the near-term narrative is trying to price in. 1559 and supply shock and defy adoption, et cetera. If we don't see those things, then that could give us a lasting bear market. And in my mind, the next like big bear market, I do think it probably bottoms like 70 to 80% down,

not 9095% like it did last time. So we actually have a decent number of those questions. Brian that you just brought up, like what happens if EIP 1559 gets killed by L2s? what happens in a bear market to defy yield i just want to because you brought those things up i do want to show our current state of defy panel coming tomorrow where a lot of those questions we are going to ask the the guests there so quick shill yeah quick shill and you got to save the time of that if you're going to show it uh what time of that is at 1 p.m pacific time 4 p.m eastern time uh we got santiago santo spencer noon and vance spencer on the show two spensers and a santiago it's going to be awesome um all right

So what happens if good things happen for Ethereum, the ledger? Like EIP 1559 does do well, layer two works out. The merge feels like it's on time. All of those things are going well. But and yet, Bitcoin is having trouble. Like so bad disaster scenario for Bitcoin, but all things good. Ethereum moves up to his promises. Yes.

That's in that scenario. Some sort of mix. We're in like, then it'll be the. funniest Twitter environment ever as the flipping is really challenged. That will be a lot of fun. I'll be there for the entertainment, but like the cope on the Bitcoin side

and the clout on the East side, like it'll almost be too much to bear, but of course I'll still want to be there to witness it. But yeah, I think we would go for the highs on Heath BTC, but it doesn't necessarily mean ETH goes the full way. Like 810K means Bitcoin has recovered.

you know the scenario of of the flippinging but bitcoins like in the 20k's the flippening can still occur with eth at like 4 or 5k or something like that i think like Kobe loves destruction um so like to witness it so i think that's uh both his least favorite from a like actual you know gaining wealth perspective but also favorite from a pure entertainment perspective is to see the flippinging happen with bitcoin like in a bear market Oh my God. So that is one potential outcome, but it would mute the upside on ETH, it sounds like. It would mute the upside from a dollar basis on ETH, but like per Bitcoin, ETH would be quite strong. And I don't know where I fall on this.

To be quite honest, forever, I was like, 0.055Eth is a magnet to me. Like it was just where we kind of broke down in the bear market before. And I was just like on a pure horizontal magnet. What it ended up being was we thrust right through it and then turned it into support. If you look on the right hand side of this chart where that weekly came and thrust it down, that's where people found themselves willing to buy. And it was a key horizontal level. My target was more like 0.085.

We almost got there, but not quite. Do we hit these other what were then bearish, you know, lower highs? Do we get all the way back to all-time highs, 0.15? For the entertainment value, I hope we do. because like the the drumming, the drumming of the flippinging will be so loud that it'll be very entertaining. I don't think we'll spend a ton of time flippant if we do do so. If we do, crypto's in some bad dire straits. Like Bitcoin might have lost the narrative.

And it might take a much longer bear market for crypto to kind of re-identify itself. Like those network effects have to redistribute. And again, this is more of a fundamental hat. But like that means something is like people are really going after Bitcoin from a regulatory perspective or something. Plus, outsiders are looking at our industry saying, what is crypto if Bitcoin isn't Bitcoin? That's right. That's right. And I think it could put cell pressure on everything.

So it's like, yeah, ETH flippant everything, but like everything's in a bare market. So that would be kind of painful, but I guess that's possible. I don't think it's the most likely. I think the most likely is Bitcoin does start to repair itself. ETH does fairly well. But then the flippinging, like when you are like having a celebratory podcast about the flippinging occurring, it's also the top. That makes a ton of sense because we all know that euphoria and gloating is where the top gets marked. Ryan, unless you have any more questions about eth and Bitcoin or eth versus Bitcoin,

I want to pull up DPI versus ETH because this is something that we look at on the bankless show. Oh my God, that bottom is holding by a string, by a hair. Ledger, I don't know if you listen to the bottom you call this. Yeah, I don't call bottoms because I don't chart like ledger charts, but I called the ETH DPI bottom right around 0.13. and I mean it's looking looking kind of good but we are right there we are on the break man it's at the peak it's at the point of best risk reward I just inverted it because I want you to look at this by flip like you're flipping your own bias here and saying am I bullish this chart

my answer is I'm super bullish this chart like just to set this up for people who are kind of like me though this is like a mark of defy's performance token performance defy token performance relative to ETH is what we're looking at here. And you just said you're super bullish defy. I said I am bullish defy but this chart of being bullish the inverse version, I'm actually bullish Eith relative to D5. Because he flipped it. So flipping a chart is a nice way to check yourself, right? So like, oh, are you bullish this chart or are you bullish all the time and we need to flip this chart? And I'm like, oh yeah, you're just bullish no matter what. This is all psychology. That's right. And that's why I said that.

in the first place. Now, could it hold here, aka in that inverted version, be rejected? Yes. However, think of where we are in the cycle, like, and where you want to be. What I want to be is liquid. And I am less liquid if I'm like spread out amongst my favorite defy protocols, then if I'm basically saying, look, I'll get the upside of ETH, but if I need to go to dollars, I can do it in one trade because you can get a lot of, a lot of coins sold in one trade when it's ETHUSD, right? And to me, why I think the underperformance of Defi relative to ETH will occur until the chart repairs itself. As the chart repairs itself, let's say that ascending triangle repeat of 2017. When that's in like the last 40% of that type of consolidation, I bet DeFi will be freaking

exploding, right? But until ETH repairs itself, this may be bottom, but it's not like I think it's going to go like straight back up to the relative. And this is no different than ETHBTC. It's just down the trade. And it's the reflexivity increases. I'm sure you've had guests talk about reflexivity. So yes, this could hold.

But I've minimized my defy exposure because I just want to make sure I can get in and out of ETH. And ETH will be representative of my defy bullishness. And none of these defy protocols currently have as good of tokenomics as EIP 1559 in my mind, even though some of them do have promises of token value accrual, et cetera, I'll get 80% of the upside just holding ETH, and that makes me a little scared to hold on to this. And it could either range sideways or go to new lows, neither of which are worth the risk to me.

And my gut take on this is that if Bitcoin continues to break down as we saw, and even Eith does manage to hold on and stay pretty good, as from a dollar perspective, if BTC breaks down, defy tokens might also break down, right? Just because, like, at some point, Bitcoin controls the markets. And even though defy tokens are generally more correlated to ETH and BTC, at some point, BTC breaking down makes everything else break down. And then if DeFi tokens break down right here versus ETH below 0.13,

there might just be too much bearishness in the whole entire market for anyone to be happy at all. And, like, how much can ETH really control the market? It's never really done that before. honestly what I think you hope for is something like this where it sweeps the lows and then it goes. So like just repeat that here. So you sweep the lows and then you go because what you do, all these markets, they just move wealth from more hands to fewer, right? Like eventually, Suza is just going to own all the coins in the world.

Yeah. So if we sweep those lows, that's when, you know, us 100 IQ middle curve people are like, oh crap it lost it I'm out and they're like laughing in rich and just say like okay now we buy it and we pump it and that that would be the one the one thing I'd look for however that doesn't necessarily mean you enter right there you're you don't have to be the person collecting that liquidity you don't need quite that liquidity you can buy it here okay so like you can buy when it clears this level because when it clears that level it's probably going to be a confirmation of broader trend reversal and you might play it from point one five to

maybe the range highs to 0.28. And just like we talked about with ETH BTC, well, guess what? You just made 80% more ETH. So this, Ryan, is my case for like why the charts assist your broader narrative because if you're going to actively trade whatsoever, then this is going to assist you in doing so. It's just going to assist you in trying to make logical decisions.

This is the point out which I want to remind holders that Suzu cannot take your coins if you just never sell them. You just hold on to them. That's true. And you're not on leverage. Because if you're on leverage, you won't have to sell sometimes. So the other thing, Ledger, I'm curious about in this chart, is like, so if we start to see Defi continue to break down, can you put on your lower pyramid fundamentals hat again?

Like, what do you look for in Defy tokens to buy from a Fundamentals perspective? Are you like, because what's interesting about this is forever in crypto, We were just like trading things that have no cash flow value, like not really capital assets. What is the fair market value of Bitcoin and Eath? It's like, what's the fair market value of gold? It's really difficult to answer. But some of these crypto assets, they have cash flows. And so if you look at something like YFI, its price to earnings for ratio in May, it's like 12, like incredibly low relative to its growth.

what would you look for in a gem style like maybe blue chip or maybe not defy tokens if you if you feel like defy starting to bottom relative to eth yeah thank goodness we're not having to rely on things like fat protocol thesis yeah because i much prefer if you can just look at numbers and say well i think this is a relative value because from an income you know perspective like this is not even priced like a growth stock in equities and yet look at the growth potential in this ecosystem. So I think those are extremely valuable tools to be able to see like what is the token value accrual that goes back to holders who are participating in the network? And that is far better than governance alone.

What we see though, and this concerns me a little bit, is like some networks are pricing it as if they already feed that token value back to holders, but they don't. So no offense to Uniswap, fantastic product. It doesn't do that yet, but it's priced as if it's going to. And similar to buying like a super high tech growth stock with no profit, it's the same thing in DFI. Whereas you look at say sushi, maybe it's a better relative value because they already feed those profits back to token holders. And same with YFI. So what I am going to look for to say, I truly have a value in these assets is to say, do they feed token value to token holders today?

like the fees and stuff back to token holders. Do they do that today? Is that a relative value in itself? And is the usage of this protocol defensible? Or is it just infinitely forcable and people chase yield, et cetera? If it says yes to all of those, then it's going on my list of things I want to buy when I'm bullish D-Fi. Yeah, that's a really good case.

You know, like one other bearish point I've heard about these cash flows themselves, Ledger, and I'm like curious, you know, because we're both like in our early 20s. You and I remember a little bit of the dot-com stuff, right? Yeah. I'm the oldest one here, I'm pretty sure. Yeah, I'm pretty sure you are. 57. What was interesting about some of the dot-com stocks is like companies like Yahoo back in the day, late 90s were like crushing it in terms of revenue and growth, right? But when you looked at their revenue, it was like advertising revenue coming from what? Other dot-com stocks. Right. Like, so the inflated valuations of the other dot-com stocks were essentially fueling Yahoo's revenue.

So even people who are like, quote-unquote, fundamentals investors and looking at cash flows of a stock like Yahoo, well, that was being juiced by the bubble of other dot-coms that was kind of surrounding it. And in a bear scenario, again, we're like, we don't talk bear stuff, do we, David? But like, sometimes we need to. like some of some of that revenue could just disappear from an asset like yofi because why because well the staking yield disappears what are your thoughts on that case is that a potential um yes i think what happens when the market goes down when it becomes a bare market is something you have got to consider because if you're banking your your valuation off of something earning 2025 percent yield. If it goes down to 5 percent yield, is it still valuable? And the answer is basically

no, not near as valuable, especially when I think you have to have a few points of yield in crypto just to account for the fact that there's smart contract risk, even in these platforms that have existed for a couple of years. We don't know the potential exploits are out there. There's always bugs in software. So it's a potential problem. It could extrapolate the downward spiral of the market similar to ICO treasury selling that occurred in the bear market last time. It's like all they have is eth. They have to survive. Now they have to sell their eth as it goes down and they capitulate. We could see similar reflexivity, I guess. And it's something to consider in case of a strong bear market. But I think the bigger and more important thing is that the liquidity flows

will go to projects that are fundamentally more sound. And right now, the liquidity is really spread out amongst a lot of projects that are just priced up in a very highly speculative manner. And so I would hope to see value and total market value accrue more to the true blue chips, the people that are really building quality stuff that will last long time. So, Ledger, this has been, I think, one of the most informative state of the nations that I can remember in recent memory. And you've actually started something called Flip Metrics, which I think if people are interested in more stuff like this they might be interested in.

So tell us all about Flip Metrics and what that is. Yeah, so I'm officially deep in the rabbit hole of Defi because I've gone full time. So honestly, podcasting and content creation is my side hustle. And Flip Metrics is a business that I've co-founded with two partners. And we're a team of six right now with some investors. And we're building what we hope to be actionable intelligence for people. that are involved in Defi. So if you think about on-chain events that could impact the future value of a token,

for instance, who's buying and who's selling, like what are you seeing in whale wall wallets or different scores or things like that. What we have right now is just a simple tool. And it's basically saying who's fomoing stuff? Like are they running out of a token because they want eth? And, you know, you can sort by slippage or price. This is just a simple and fun little tool to take a look at and these update based on blocks as they come in. But we'll have so much more that will be focusing both on token fundamental analysis itself and then also on wallets and to be able to do significant analysis based on-chain metrics.

And my primary thesis is that more trading will occur on chain than on centralized exchanges over time. and that the flows, similar to the technical analysis that we talked about, just price on charts, this adds a whole other level of analytics that you can do because you're analyzing on-chain network activity. We don't have like 10K reports from the SEC and stuff to analyze these assets. So this is like our on-chain version of being able to do that and we hope that it provides insights for people. So it's a completely free product and you can go to flipmetrics.com and sign up. Well, I think both Ryan and I are extremely bullish on on-chain data because that's where we like to see our trading activity because on-chain data is bankless data. And so big fan, big fan.

And I hope you all the best, sir. Thank you. We have a ton of work to do. It's just a little landing page right now, but we're very excited. I love that ledger has been officially defy-pilled. He is all in at this point on the defy. It's awesome, man. Hey, look, you kind of changed my mind around like, like, trade.

analysis in this short time we've had together. So like, thank you. It's been a really cool episode and a learning episode for me personally. I want to ask me this last question. It's like absorbing all of these things. The big question still in people's minds is, hey, is this 2017 and is this a brief pause? Or are we about to enter a much like a longer bare market? And I know we've gone through like the different hypotheticals, but like let's make make it binary. What's your probability here, Ledger, and everything you've seen. First, probability that this is a pause and we resumed the bull run. And then second, probability that we're going down for a dip for a period of many months and sort of bull run is canceled for now.

I think the most likely outcome is that we don't actually make new highs this year. But that's not the same as a bear market. Interesting. So like almost no man's land somewhere we haven't, that's not 2017, but it's not, doesn't quite fit other markets either. So something new. Yeah. And other people have helped influence me on this thesis, but you know, you mentioned the dot com era. It's not like because Amazon went down 90% one time, it went down 90% another time. Like it proved itself in the market. it emerged as a technology and for showing like online commerce is real. Today, cryptocurrency is real.

You know, like there's nothing. People can't say it's not. They can not like it. They can try to regulate it. But it is real. And I think that we're seeing more of an adoption cycle this time rather than a speculative cycle. And I think what will make it painful to people is that it won't be like 2017 because it won't be so rapid. 2017 was just one parabolic curve.

up and then it was done. And we will see that again. That's in my mind, like what you see in like a doge coin type of move or some of those things. But I think we're going to see a true adoption curve occur in blue chip crypto assets. And those of us with a long term bull thesis will win, but it's going to require patience. And people expecting to like 100x every year in one asset or the other are going to be sorely disappointed. You know, I've always had reservations in, because 2017 was my first cycle, right? And I had like the extreme amount of wealth at the top of 2017 at an astonishing number of nine-eath, right?

And I was really, really excited about this bear market and then the bull market because of all the promises of like, oh, a new cycle is coming, new cycle is coming. But I was always extremely skeptical. It's like, well, if too many people are all saying that we're just going to do another 2017 thing, I always thought that if too many people are saying it, then it can't become true because people will try and trade that reality too soon. And all of a sudden, like, we can be bullish on crypto and have number go up.

But like a complete repeat of everything we've already seen in the past seems like hopium to me. Yeah. I simultaneously am trying to say there will be logic in the market. And I'm also seeing, you know, I said what you said, Doge will not go to 10 cents. Well, it went to 60. GME and AMC are fundamentally worthless and they're short squeezing funds to bankruptcy. We are seeing logic in the market that is, I mean, just devastating to normal human beings that do reasonable analysis. So I can think that.

It doesn't mean it won't happen, but I don't think it's the primary outcome. And if legacy bombs, that could send us into like a much longer cycle of repair, but we will emerge from that because I do. of this technology is here to stay. One person I'll highlight, I just distinctly remember how Peter Brandt, of all people, said how 2017 was so abnormal as a trading event, just asset class that exploded, that he would have been absolutely shocked if it ever occurred again.

As this bull market began out of the COVID recovery, he was like, if this does this again, it's like a double whammy on something, that's typically a generational trading event, like if you're just the trader, right? So to think it's going to go just as fast, and it has gone fast so far. So we could slow down for a long time and still be like really, really positive impact for a long-term investor. But the fact that we've moved so fast again, I think that's why it demands more time for repair, consolidation, before, like, further move up.

So that's why I think, I think this cycle is going to be significantly slower. and without the like negative 95% type of thing. And I think if we want this industry to mature and these charts to mature, like we need to be ready for boringness. We need for boringness to enter the markets because like Ryan and I on bank lists, making content has been. It's exhausting right now. I was about to say the most fucking fun of my life.

But I'm glad to know that you're exhausted. Oh. Well, you're like. Okay, if we've been on for an hour or two, have we moved like 10% while we've been on the show? Where's my new car? Yeah. Yeah, but like, yeah, yeah, this is all great. I mean, I think the bottom line for bankless listeners is like, be prepared.

So you're saying we could still have an explosive growth up. We are in a late stage fiat credit cycle. Who knows? Who knows absolutely what could happen? At the same time, the middle scenario that you mentioned where we have this kind of this leveling off period in this steady period and slower growth, that's definitely very appealing to me because you tend to attract the right sort of people. You're going to.

Yeah. You're attracting the baseline of the pyramid people. You're attracting the middle part of the pyramid people. When you're wearing that tactical hat, that very top part of the pyramid, those are the people that are here today and gone tomorrow. Like, you don't want them in the long term. It's a top heavy market. And that's when you can lose the bid when it goes away and it's like, you know, like there

it goes. And you're pulling the coins back down to the people with a greater fundamental thesis. Now is a time, if you're bullish on crypto, is probably when you should be DCAing, but instead, our friends that got in, ETH, for example, above 3K, they're freaking out. So they have the exact opposite mental attitude that they should have at this moment. Yep, absolutely. Ledger, this has been invaluable. I think a lot of lessons here for bankless listeners. The biggest lesson of all is the story of crypto is continue on the journey. Keep a long-term orientation to this market. We've got industries to disrupt. We've got years to go. Ledger, thanks so much for joining us on the state of the nation. Thanks for having me. We'll be back soon. All right, guys, risks and disclaimers. Of course,

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