Barron's Streetwise - Flights and Tights: Delta CEO Ed Bastian and a Look at Lululemon

Episode Date: June 26, 2026

A leader in air travel joins the podcast. Plus, Jefferies analyst Randal Konik discusses why a yoga wear pioneer has turned downward dog. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Learn more at Accenture.com slash Spotify. back years ago, you'd ask people why they chose a specific airline. They would tell you, historically, it was whoever had the lowest cost. Today, if you ask people why they chose Delta, they'll tell you it's because of Delta, the value they see and the experience they receive. Hello and welcome to the Barron Streetwise podcast. I'm Jack Howe. And the voice you just heard, that's Ed Bastion. He's the CEO of Delta Airlines. We've talked about Airways. We've talked about airlines and how they suddenly look honest to goodness investable. And Delta's a big part of the reason.

It's beating the stock market. We'll hear from Ed on how. But first we're going to talk about yoga tights and logos and colors. Jeffrey's analyst Randall Connick is going to explain what's going wrong with Lulu Lemon's stock and whether it's fixable. He'll also give us a stock he likes a lot right now. Think cups. Big sturdy ones. That's next.

Listening in is our audio producer, Emily Sommelin. Hi, Emily. Hi, Jack. What do you know? What can you tell me, if anything, about Lulu Lemon. Are you someone who has ever bought and worn a Lulu Lemon garment? Do you have opinions? Do you have thoughts? Have your views of the products changed over time? Or do you not do Lulu at all? Considering my favorite yoga pose is corpse pose, I don't think I'm qualified to weigh in on the. this one. Is that, is that an act? That's out of actual pose, right? It's that sounds, it is. It's great. You get to lay on the floor and everything. Oh, my goodness. I did, they didn't, I tried it like once years ago. It did not go well. I don't think there was, I wish there was a corpse pose. I don't know much about Lulu Lemon in terms of the products. I know they do sell men's clothing. I've never worn a lulu garment. I'm very interested in the company now and I'll tell you why. It comes down to the

stock price. I run screens all the time for which stocks are moving. It's an early indicator that something's going on with the company. I look at all different time windows. When I look year to date, I find that a lot of the worst performers in the S&P 500 are software stocks. And that makes sense. Investors worry that AI is so good at coding and programming that it could offset some of the pricing power that these companies have historically held. But then I see number nine, not a good way, Ninth from the bottom, down 47% and change year-to-date, is Lulu Lemon Athletica. And I don't think that's AI. I think that's just ARG-H-H, as in ARG-H what's happening to my Lulu stock,

which is what shareholders must be saying right about now, especially because it's not just a recent thing. I mean, over the past five years, that stock is down 70%. It's the 11th worst performer in the S&P 500. This was a darling stock. This was a hot stock. It's down to 10 times forward earnings projections now. If you look back over the past five years, that has steadily declined.

It used to be over 30 times, even over 40 times earnings. The average over the past five years, if you include the low numbers just recently and the high numbers way back when, the average is 27 times earnings. So is that stock cheap? Is it cheap enough? To figure that out, we have to know what's going wrong. We have to dig into the fashion. And I'm not the guy on that.

I've touched in the past on my fashion habits. They're not good. They don't usually generate a claim. I bought new jeans recently, and I wore them to pick up my daughter at basketball practice, and the other parents were there, and one of the dads said, you wear jeans? They thought you only existed in moisture wicking fabrics. Yeah, although I think this might be one. They were pretty stretchy.

And then my daughter followed it up with, do you wear jeans that fit? I guess, I don't know. Maybe. Tight jeans are coming back. Maybe they were a little snug. I don't know. Anyhow, this is not about me, fortunately. We need an expert on Lulu Lemon and trends in yoga wear and other stuff and what's going wrong.

And I thought the perfect person to speak to about this is a fellow named Randall Connick. He's over at Jeffries. He covers some stories. and some consumer goods and things like that. And he has been on this decline of Lulu Lemon theme for years. He was early to this one. He was warning about this stock and that things were going to go wrong. And so I checked in recently with Randy to find out where do we stand?

What does a company need to do to get back on track? Let's hear part of that conversation now. Randy, I want to learn what I can about Lulu Lemon. I'm not an expert. I see what's happening with the stock. none of it is good. And you are someone who has been sounding cautious on this stock for quite some time. You seem to have been on the right side of warning investors about what could go wrong with this company. And what I want to learn if I can, we can come to it.

I want to get as granular as possible on what exactly are they doing wrong? Like people must not like the stuff that they're selling as much as they did. What has changed about the stuff that they're selling is what I'm trying to learn. But you start anywhere you like on Lulu Lemon and what you see. Well, Jack, you know, you and I have spoken about this stock for, you know, years. And a number of years ago, what we noticed were two real issues impacting the company or three. One, the company's core business was running out of growth. Two, competition was starting to rise.

And then three, under the old CEO, the strategic direct. of the business was changing and not for the good, but more for the bad. And on the third point, you know, what we've noticed was a real move outside the core of what Lulu Lemon was kind of good at, which is leggings, sports bras, et cetera. They ran, they went into regular clothes. And we're talking sweaters, sweatshirts with logos, and go-length skirts like Little House on the Prairie. I don't know if anybody knows what that is, but I do.

I'm old. I do. I'm 100. I know what it is. All right. But, you know, that was kind of really the simplicity of what we saw. And when you have a company that's kind of running out of growth, you know, seeing competition rise at and then trying to do things that aren't quarter what you do or what you're known for by the core customer, you're going to start to run into major problems, especially if you're at peak fundamentals as it pertains to sales productivity per foot and margin. structure. I've seen you make mention of the logos. And I think I know what you mean here. I'm not a

fashionista. My usual MO is I will order something online from like a, like in the past I would buy from L.L. Bean. And what I do is I look for clearance sales on the colors that other people are afraid to wear. And I wear those colors like a like a mustard. I'm very big on mustard and pumpkin and colors like that. So I noticed LL Bean started like blown up the big logos on all their clothing. And I switched to there's a there's a company called deluth trading and uh you know the marketing a lot of double entendres and stuff like that and just kind of gritty sounding i said all right let me try this deluth trading that's good too except now i see that their pants they're putting big everybody's doing the big logos on them i can understand the point behind it you want to get your brand out there it helps

you advertise when i'm wearing your clothes with a big logo on it but how is it helping me i mean it's not is is is that the issue that's now it's a whole different world with lulu lemon but is that the issue that they're selling clothes with big logos on it and customers are not into it? Well, I think things have changed. You know, when I was younger, logos were a thing. And I think logos might be still a thing

now that we're older because we're old, right? But, you know, the younger generation of kids today and those in their 20s, I think the minimalist look has become more prevalent. So the logo in your face has been less desired. So, you know, with Lulu, what they were trying to do is court a different customer with the logos. Remember, what they tried to do when they first started,

they had a little logo if they even saw it at all, and was positioned on the product, maybe on the calf of a legging or behind the shirt on a polo shirt, and you could hardly see it. They moved away from that because they were starting to see trends slow, and I think what they wanted to do was just cord another, expand the customer cohort to a wider audience, and it just didn't work.

And again, with today's consumer that doesn't want loud logos, Lulu's move into that loud logo area just didn't work. What about the colors? Is something changed with the colors? What's going on there? Look, I think color's a big deal. I'm not a fashion expert, but, you know, I have eyes, you have eyes, et cetera. And as an observer of retail names or retail stocks for the last 25 years, you know, what you usually

see from a company is the company has a distinct aesthetic, right? And with that aesthetic, it's not just what the products look like, were they preppy products, whether they're not preppy products, relaxed goods, et cetera, but also the color palette seems to be, you know, a way a company kind of puts itself forward or brand in the marketplace. And what Lulu Lemon was known for in the past was basics, right? A black legging, a white sports product, etc. over the years, the color palette got, we call it disjointed. They were selling every type of color, loud colors, soft colors, muted and bright. And when you have that, it creates a disjointed picture to the consumer, and it just doesn't make sense.

So when a consumer goes into the store and sees colors all over the place that don't have a cohesive kind of look, it starts to turn them off as well. And by the way, all types of colors create more types of potential fashion risk, which means potential market. markdowns, which means gross margins go down, not go up. When you mention that they're getting outside of the types of products they used to sell and they're looking for new types of products, I can certainly understand the appeal of that, why you would want to do that in order to grow sales. Is it just that they went about it the wrong way, or is it about they pushed too far into things they shouldn't have pushed into?

What do you think happened there? Look, I think it's a simple case of are you known for this product or are you not? We learned this lesson in the mid-2000s, I guess around 2015, 2016, or sorry, forget the exact year, when Under Armour of all brands went into a product set called UAS, which was a actual fashion runway line for a company that sells sports shirts, right? It just didn't make sense. So now that was the extreme example of what not to do. Ideally, I shouldn't be laughing while you're saying.

It was probably a bad sign for that business idea that it makes me laugh just hearing it. It sounds like Zoolander, right? And it looked like it too. But with Lulu, they didn't go the exact Zoolander route. But again, it's pretty simple. Lulu Lemon was made for yogis, I guess, people that were into yoga and known for their yoga pant and their sports bras over time. You know, going into things, as I said earlier, sweaters, logo sweatshirts,

etc. That's just not what they're known for. And if they're not known for that, the consumer is less likely to buy those products and more likely to go to a competitor. And by the way, if you're not known for those products, they're more at risk of being marked down, as I said, you know, before, which creates gross margin potential pressure ahead. It's one of, by the way, one of the worst performers this year in the S&P 500. If you look at the bottom of the S&P 500 by, by, you know, price declines, you find a bunch of software stock, because people are worried about AI and you find Lulu. Yeah, it might be one of the worst performing stocks the last five years as well.

And actually, you know, when Calvin was hired to become the CEO of Lulu, the stock is about 120. Now it's below that today. So it's given all that back from when he was hired. So that's the bad news. The good news is I guess we've gotten to a place with Lulu where the stock fell so precipitously that the valuation has come down so far that we upgraded the stock from underperform to hold. and that's where we sit today with Lulu.

We're not telling people to buy it. We're not telling people to sell it. It's just in this no man's land as it stands. This is not a lost cause. This is a fixable business, if I understand you correctly. There is a new CEO coming in. I don't think the new CEO starts until maybe September-ish. First of all, why?

Because this seems to me like a 911 situation. It seems like you got to do something right now. And now our investors are in the position of having to wait for the new CEO. to come in and then the new CEO has to have a plan and then you need to put that plan in the motion. So, you know, how fixable is the business? And what do you think is the reasoning behind that timing or to what extent does that, does that hurt the investment case of the stock? Look, we're in a trade in front of your face type of stock market where people want to see results right away and get sense of momentum and not. So the reason why she's not starting until

September, I believe, is from from a garden leave perspective, right? comes from Nike. And you're right. Her strategies will change under her direction. They will most likely replace some of the design and merchant talent inside the organization. So from an investor's perspective, we're unlikely to see the fruits of her labor until 2027 spring at the earliest. And that's a, you know, it's nine months away.

So I think it is fixed bull. And the reason why is because we're dealing with a brand that everybody knows, at least in the United States. It has good perception around quality of their products, especially on their leggings business. And, you know, with the right focus back on the product and the right direction and getting away from Little House on the Prairie skirts, away from sweaters, away from a disjointed color palette, I think there is a fixable situation. It's just very painful in the near term. And lastly, mathematically, what we have to get, what we have to find is a bottom with sales productivity per foot. I'll give you a statistic. Lulu Lemon at its peak had sales per foot of

$1,600. That means nothing in an absolute basis. But if you contextualize it with the mall, the mall average is 400, right? So what we used to say is over the last five years, X the last two, if that makes sense. Whenever a person went into a mall, they were going into a Lululemon and an Apple store, right? Today, they're just not, right? They're going probably to still Apple, but not Lululemon. So that's sales productivity per foot, which is four times the mall average. It's actually come down from 1600 to probably around 1,400 today. It's just finding a floor of where we have to find the floor, at least find an improving second derivative trend line,

i.e. getting less negative, to get more excited about Lulu Lemons prospects ahead, while the stock is probably bottoming out today. Second derivative, I speak fluent analysts, so don't worry. This is half of my job. Second derivative means stuff is still getting worse, but it's getting worse at a slower pace than it used to get worse, which means we could be close to getting better.

That's right. We're getting towards that inflection point that everybody loves to kind of talk to. That's as close as I'm allowed to come to calculus on this podcast. I love it. That's great. And thank you for that insight. Before I let you go, can you tell us about something in your coverage universe that you like? What are you among the stocks that you watch?

Which one do you see now where you like the potential for you? the most. Here's what I love. It's not related to these types of companies. It's actually in a hard goods business. It's a stock we took public in 2018 called the Yeti, a brand that everybody knows. For the last 20 years, companies been in business, making cups and coolers that are high quality that gives them the authority to have high price and keep that maintained price with healthy margins. This is a company, though, that grew dramatically right before COVID and through COVID and then had a COVID hangover, if you will. If you look at the stock chart, it's been a flat chart for about four years and a really amazing upmarket. But what's interesting is the

company is now embarking on an acceleration strategy around product innovation. So go beyond cups and coolers and then globalize the brand beyond the United States, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia. So it's going to be an accelerating growth company with high margins, cheap stock, great brand. We think it could nearly go up 50% to a lot more over the the next year or so. When I go into a Dix sporting goods, I look, I see like entire walls of nothing but cups. The kind of cups, they look like discarded oxygen canisters on the side of Everest. Like, that's how heavy duty these cups have gotten. I don't know, I don't know who needs these bulletproof cups of this size, by the way. They go up to like, I think we're beyond a

court. We might be at like a half gallon on some of these. And so, and there's all these different brands. And so I don't know. I think we've reached peak rugged cup in America, at least. But you're saying that Yeti has opportunities to do stuff beyond cups. Going back to second derivative, you're right. So last year, the liquid industry or drinkware, if you will, got flooded in the market. And you were right. There were too many brands, too much product, and the growth rate of the category slowed.

That's the bad news. the good news is we've kind of inflected where exporting goods, among other retailers, have reduced the amount of brands they carry, reduce the inventory, and now the actual category has inflected from negative growth to positive growth, which is what the market wants to see. So with Yeti, that's a positive sign going forward. And all those brands have been consolidated. Yeti's one of those brands they still want,

and that's going to provide opportunity for the company as well. As they go into other products and they go into other GEDs, geographies around the world. You know, it's interesting that you say that the cups that we, the number of cups we have in my household, we can't even fit them into like one cabinet space. And they're so rugged, they would survive a nuclear strike. So you think to yourself, why would you ever buy a new one? Certainly you have all you'll ever need for your life.

And yet, I find that once in a while we buy a new one for reasons I can't quite explain. You know why? Why is that? Well, they get lost. You got father's day. You got mother's day. You got kids' birthdays, graduations, whatever. And then you get innovation, right?

So one of my kids, he's in travel baseball, I got him a product from Yeti called the silo jug. It's just a water jug. That's an amazing water jug for $60. So they're innovating even within the category of drinkwear because these jugs weren't available a year and a half ago. And they're going into other categories like culinary and again, moving the brand around the world,

which presents a lot of revenue upside and growth with a company that generates high teens eBitom margins that have upside ahead as well. Finally, with a company with an amazing balance sheet of net cash and generates a massive amount of cash flow for the market cap that it has. So it's one of our favorites. It's been profiled in Barron's before,

and we want to kind of get it out there in Barron's again. Thank you so much for the idea for your time. One of these days, we've got to get together and talk about what in the holy heck is going on financially with youth sports. I know you focus a lot on retail, but you've got experience with youth sports. You must see the amount of money.

changing hands and hear about private equity getting involved and all this stuff. It's, it's incredible what's happening out there. I'm sure you're seeing it firsthand. Youth sports will be huge for years to come as a parent of kids in travel and rec. So that's high school and the travel programs. We're spending tons of money on equipment, but also uniforms. So look for companies that kind of feed into that. There's more training.

There's, there's, you know, lessons, weight training. There's nutrition. So everything around youth sports is going to blow up in a big way, in a positive way, over the next five to ten years, and we'll be part of that as parents. Randy, thanks again. Have a great summer, and I'll talk to you soon. Thanks, Jack. Talk to you soon. Coming up, we're going to hear from Ed Bastion, CEO of Delta Airlines. That's after this quick break.

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Free of charge. BetmGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with Eye Gaming Ontario. Welcome back. Let me tell you a few things about Delta Airlines. Number one, I'm pretty sure that it's the same age as Barrens. I think Delta is 101 years old. Number two, Delta is beating the stock market. Now on its own, that's no big whoop.

Airlines have had periods in the past where they've done well. Investors have thought of them as long-term a problem for investment, but short-term tradable. If you catch them at the right moment, you can make money. I used to say that airline investors should panic at the first sign of profits. And what I meant by that was that when times were good in the airline industry, all the airlines would create too much capacity. And then they'd enter into a price war, and then it would be bad for profits, and then the stocks would tank. What's interesting about Delta now is it has been

outperforming for a while, year to date, past year, past three years, past five years. If you've owned Delta over the past five years, you're beating the S&P 500 by almost 20 points. Here's something else. This year is supposed to be a bad one for airlines. I mean, demand for travel is pretty solid, but there's a spike in fuel costs. And you have to be able to pass that through to customers quickly or else you get stuck with the cost. And it's terrible for your margins. This is just the kind of year

where an airline should be turning big losses. And when I look at estimates for Delta, the company is still projected to generate well over a couple of billion dollars in free cash this year. That's less than half as much as they could be generating, but still it's pretty good for a bad year. And I think it does speak to their pricing, power, speaking of which, I've seen that Delta generates about half of the airline industry's

profits with about 18% of its passengers. And I had an opportunity recently to speak about that with the boss, Ed Bastion. He was named recently on the Barron's top CEOs list. Let's hear some of that conversation now. I wonder if you could just give me the sort of freshest read you can on what do you see for travel demand? What do you make of the latest news out of Iran and the effect on the oil price? How do things look to you here? Well, we have seen this year a very resilient, higher-end traveler, a premium consumer, which is our bread of mutter.

It's the top end of our decay, as it's like to be referred to, is the Delta traveler. And we're expecting this quarter our guidance to be with revenues growing low double digits year on year. And given all the uncertainty in the economy, the geopolitical matters, that tells you that as they start consumers are continuing to prioritize the experience economy. We see demand healthy internationally. We see corporates healthy. We see the American Express relationship generating double-d-year-year growth, and just about everywhere you look in our business. It's been a strong year on the revenue line.

You and I have both heard over the years all the punchlines about the airline industry and the investment merits going back decades. And I wonder if some people are paying attention to what's going on now, because when I look at your company, you're producing large amounts of free cash flow each year, and the stock has been outperforming the market. It just seems to be like a totally different environment than it used to be in a different opportunity for stock investors. What has changed? What are the most important things that have changed about the industry?

Well, we have worked diligently over the last 15 years at providing a great, experience, high reliability, great product attributes and choices for our consumers. The airport lounge experience has been significantly enhanced. People are delivering great service to our consumers. Over time, people have decided that this product, at least the Delta product, is no longer a commodity. go back years ago when people would, you'd ask people why they chose a specific airline, they would tell you historically it was whoever had the lowest cost. Today, if you ask people

why they chose Delta, they'll tell you it's because of Delta and what they, the value they see and the experience they receive. The other thing that has changed here with oil prices is jumping dramatically, doubling for us year on year over the course of this current quarter we're in, we've been able to recoup a significant amount of that real time through pricing, which again, and we've seen that without impact to the demand. And so that also tells you that consumers are a lot more inelastic and understand, particularly with a higher-end product and value experience, they see that prices have gone up and they understand the reason why,

and they're willing to pay the price. And we've seen that for the last four months, double-digit year-on-year growth every single day in our cash sales. I understand that you're a man who likes to give away a lot of money on Valentine's Day, on or around Valentine's Day. You have this profit-sharing program. I was trying to do a little math on like what an ordinary worker, not someone in the executive suite, but someone on the front lines making, let's say, you know, 65,000 a year.

I feel like a person like that the past couple of years has been bringing home, you know, $6,000, $7,000 plus checks, which that seems meaningful. What has that done? What's the importance of that? What's it done for your business? Do you think more companies ought to follow the path that you've set out there? Yeah, that's a great point, Jack. First off, none of our executives or management team participates in the profit sharing.

It's only our frontline employees. We paid out on Valentine's Day this past year close to $1.4 billion. It represents to the average employee about a month's extra pay, a month to six weeks, somewhere of there depending on where people are on the pay scale spectrum. And it is meaningful. You're absolutely right. And it promotes great alignment between our employees and our shareholders. Our shareholders love seeing our employees being well provided and taking care,

because that means that the profits of the company have gone out when profit sharing is greater. And when we distribute the profit sharing, the most common question I get from our employees is, how do we make it bigger next year? And we talk about what we need to do to work even harder and delight our consumers with an even better experience. And that alignment of shareholder, employee, and consumer interests is what makes the, we call it the virtuous circle. And I completely agree with your comment.

I do wish I saw more companies engaging in that type of sharing with their people. What do you have up your sleeve for the years ahead? In your business, it seems like the areas that you have to do, very well on, our premium travel, international travel, and then, you know, these other non-flight revenue sources like the rewards, programs, and so forth, you appear to be doing quite well in all of these things. Where are the best opportunities for growth going forward? The greatest promise for Delta longer term is international. We just celebrated this past year, our centennial, first U.S. airline to reach 100 years of age. And as we,

into our second centennial. I've told our employees that told our shareholders that the future for us has to be global. Air travel in the U.S., candidly is ubiquitous. You can jump on a plane

in most cities just about every hour they can take you almost anywhere you want to go. However, when you step back and realize that only one in five people in the world

have ever been on an airplane that tells you where the opportunities lie. enabling more people across the world to be connected, the social good that we create through that experience is very meaningful. And that's where we're going to be expanding. Looking for more opportunities to make the world smaller and make the world a better place.

Last question. Let me just open it up to you. Is there anything I have neglected to ask you about that you think is important for investors, for people to understand about the trajectory of your business, where you're headed, what you want to focus on next. Well, I think the other thing that's real important, Jack, I haven't mentioned, and understanding that Barron's is the very best financial newspapers out there is that we've been very diligent on mitigating risk across our business,

first by providing highly reliable, safe, and premium service, but also by the cash flow that we're generating the free cash and paying down our debt so that this company is in a strong, a strong balance sheet position. I strive and talk to our investors about Delta being the very best credit in the industry, and we're very close to that. We've got our investment rate ratings back after following COVID, where we had to raise over $20 billion of debt. the vast majority of that, which is going to pay down, and we'll continue to pay down debt, keeping this a great safe haven for our customers, our employees, as well as our shareholders. Thanks, Ed. Congratulations again. I'm making the Barron's top CEOs list. And you seem to be doing well in show business, too. My audio producer saw your headshot, and she said, hey, that's the guy

from the video on the airplane. So people are noticing. All right? Thanks for taking the time. Thank you, Jack. I appreciate it very much. Take care. Thank you, Ed. Emily, I hope you don't mind the shout out there with Ed putting out what you said. I mean, I think he came off. You made me sound like such a rube, Jack. That's a hometown hero. No, listen.

Everybody knows Ed Bastion, but you don't necessarily know what he looks like, right? I know him from inflate your vests only when you hit the water. I'm familiar with his work. Some of his greatest hits. I also want to thank Randy for telling us about Lulu Lemon and thank all of you for listening. If you have a question for us about finance, go ahead and send it in. It could be on a future

podcast. What you do is you tape your question on your phone using the voice memo app and you send it to jack.how. That's h-o-u-g-h at barons.com. Subscribe wherever you listen. If you listen on Apple or Spotify, you can leave a review. And I think that concludes our business

here. Does it not, Emily, anything we need to say about next week, Fourth of July coming up, any illicit fireworks tips or should I just slip into, what do you call that yoga thing again? Corpse pose. It's as easy as falling asleep. I'm worried if I get into that I might never come out. Let me just get into nap pose. Thanks and see you next week.

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