Behind the Bastards - It Could Happen Here Weekly 156

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Starting point is 00:03:11 Welcome to It Could Happen Here. I'm Garrison Davis. I'm joined by Mia Wong. It's the start of a new week so let's start preparing for what these next few months are going to look like in the wake of Trump's election victory last week. So one thing I was thinking about after the results kind of rolled in, and seeing everyone's reactions online, you have a, you know, a mix of people going full doomer, some people trying to get hopped up on Hopium, some people on Copium, right, just trying to like find any psychological way to survive. And for me, kind of the way I like to survive is just through information.

Starting point is 00:03:48 So this episode we're going to get into how we see life for trans people under a second Trump term, based on both what he's done in the past, what he's promised to do in the future. And I know in the days after the LGBTQ, like crisis hotlines all saw a massive spike in people calling in to the point where some people were even like unable to like reach someone. And like I understand this is a very scary moment in time. And as much as it might not be fun to hear about how things are all going to get worse, there's also some misconceptions.

Starting point is 00:04:23 And I think there's also a degree of power in actually being able to reasonably ascertain what things could look like instead of just kind of feeling it out and just going purely on vibes. So to kind of start, I guess I'll mention some things that Trump did in his first term that then got undone by Biden, which will probably just end up being reinstated. We don't know these for sure, but that's like a decent guess. So one of the first things Trump did when he got into office is he rolled back an Obama-era memo

Starting point is 00:04:53 directing schools to protect trans students from discrimination. Yeah, and that, by the way, discrimination protection is a constant theme in this episode. It's going to get a lot worse. Trump later went on to ban trans people from serving in the military. He also went after trans prisoners, making it so that trans people usually would need to be housed in prisons and jails according to their assigned sex at birth, which is of course a very dangerous situation for people incarcerated, specifically trans women. Yeah, and I think there is good reason to expect that treatment

Starting point is 00:05:25 there is going to get worse. There's been you know we'll get into this more later in the episode but there's been a real focus on incarcerated trans people getting health care. Yep. And this is one of the things that's kind of ambiguous as to how Trump could go about trying to stop these people from getting health care. So the thing about providing health care to trans people who have been incarcerated is that they have to do it. It is something that is required by the Constitution of the United States. The Eighth Amendment holds that there is a ban on cruel and unusual punishment and withholding medical care is so obviously a form of

Starting point is 00:05:59 cruel and unusual punishment that even staggeringly right-wing Supreme Courts have been like, no you actually have to give people medical care in prison. So this is one that's going to be a little bit difficult for him to do. I don't know. He might find some way to do it. This is one of the ones where there's a real potential for it to get worse. And we simply do not know enough about what legal strategy is going to be here to say for sure. But it's also worth mentioning that people have had to fight for access to health care in prison. Like it's not something that comes easily. Like people have had to sue to make sure that they get the health care that they are

Starting point is 00:06:36 legally required to receive. And we can just assume that that process will probably be slightly more difficult under a second Trump term like it was under a first Trump term than it may kind of currently be now. So that's kind of one shift in how things might be slightly more challenging. Yeah. And I want to also mention so that analysis and a lot of the analysis, the policy analysis that I'm going to be doing going forward is heavily indebted to trans policy expert Corrine

Starting point is 00:07:03 Green, who we've had on the show a couple of times before. Amazingly, she was one of the people who ended up working on compliance for that lawsuit, where Kamala Harris tried to keep trans prisoners from getting healthcare, and she came in and like had to like ensure that the state of California was doing it and they weren't. So that's something that has been fought for and that's something I mean, the trans community is small enough that that is the thing that has specifically been fought for by people who I consulted to make this episode. So yeah, these these these rights have been dearly won and it's going to be very

Starting point is 00:07:34 hard to protect them. If I'm doing something where there's there's something about policy implementation assume that I talked to Corinne about this and that's why it's accurate. And while I'm doing this I want to plug a couple of the projects that she works on but there's there's something you can do very immediately right now before we get into all of the terrible stuff that's going to happen which is you can donate to the trans income project which is a project that supports trans people and trans sex workers in particular which is a lot of trans people and supports them by just giving them direct cash transfers

Starting point is 00:08:04 they do some other work too but yeah and just giving them direct cash transfers. They do some other work too. But yeah, and it's direct cash transfers are one of the most effective ways that you can help trans people. And if you give money to this organization, there'll be links in the chat. You can help do this. So let's get into how things are going to get worse. Unfortunately, Trump administration, Congress and state legislatures have an enormous amount of power to make everything worse. We're mostly going to be focusing on what Trump and Congress

Starting point is 00:08:29 can do. Well, we'll get into the legislature's a bit at the end. So there are a lot of levers of state power and sort of policy techniques that Trump can pull here to make things worse. We're gonna go roughly from easiest to hardest to pull off. So the first lever is federal funding. Probably the easiest place that this lever can get pulled is in the education system. Trump can unfortunately fairly easily implement what amounts to a don't say trans ban on a federal level by threatening to withhold federal funding for any school that doesn't mandate things like misgendering and deadnaming students and banned. And this is something he's explicitly

Starting point is 00:09:07 talked about is like banning anyone in classes, any teachers from talking about transitioning at all. He's also threatened to have teachers who talk to students about being trans, like investigated by the Department of Justice, we'll get more into Department of Justice investigations in a bit. He's also used explicit threat, the same threat of cutting state funding to stop schools from letting kids use the right bathroom in the locker room. It's also possible he will do that through Title IX, but there's a lot of ways that he can do this very easily that are probably not going to be able to be stopped. And this is going to get extremely bad very quickly. Another sort of avenue that he has is, I guess what do you call like the Hyde Amendment for

Starting point is 00:09:49 trans people? So for people who don't know what the Hyde Amendment is, the Hyde Amendment is a writer that bans federal spending on abortion. It's been like modified. It's not like the 100% ban that it used to be because now there's like exceptions for rape and incest and stuff, like for the parents too, but it used to be because now there's like exceptions for rape and incest and stuff life of the Parents too, but it is a very very effective Republican tool it's actually also Joe Biden helped implement that that's been used to limitable access to abortion and we Already have seen the start of these kind of things even under Biden There was a version of this of a kind of height amendment for trans health care

Starting point is 00:10:24 That was an attempt to get the DOD to not be able to spend money on trans health care. That that's already a provision that's been tacked on to like one of the most recent spending bills that went through because Joe Manchin like defected and joined the Republicans to get it on to one of the spending omnibuses. And that was again, just for the Department of Defense, we are very likely to see versions of these attached to every single spending bill that explicitly say that government funding cannot be used for trans health care. It will definitely be used to do to say you can't use it for trans health care for minors, it is possible this will be expanded to adults, we don't know. It depends how far there's sort of anti-trans

Starting point is 00:11:09 Arrangement goes but that that is a real danger And this can also be expanded to refusing to allow Medicare and Medicaid to pay for anything at a clinic that does trans Healthcare even if the money isn't funding the healthcare. That's also possible. That would be absolutely catastrophic for the medical system that's also possible that would be absolutely catastrophic for the medical system. Even just a government ban that, you know, prevents things like Medicare and Medicaid and like government health care from covering transition in the first place is a disaster. But if they go further and, you know, prevent clinics who like provide trans health care from taking Medicare and Medicaid, that's bad enough that I think that is, in terms of what is the thing we most need to be worried about right now, I think that's the worst possible thing that can happen very quickly. Because it could basically pressure medical clinics into refusing to offer any kind of gender-affirming care

Starting point is 00:11:56 because it would threaten their just base ability to operate as a medical clinic, taking Medicare, Medicaid, etc. Yeah. This is something I talked about a bit in our agenda 47 episode on this. But this is this effectively creates like Sophie's choice for these clinics, because either you treat trans people who have private insurance, right? Or you can treat like people who have poor medical Medicaid. So it's like, OK, either either you let trans people get fucked or you let like every poor person or old person in the US Like eat shit. So there aren't good options here for that

Starting point is 00:12:30 How do we think something like this would be implemented? Like is this an executive order or does this have to go through Congress? So that's the other part about this That's very bad. Um, the way this is being done is These things are attached as we are called writers to to spending bills So any spending bill the Republicans put in front of the house done is these things are attached as what are called writers to spending bills. So any spending bill the Republicans put in front of the House, they will have this like provision in it, right? And the really big problem for us is that spending bills usually get passed now out

Starting point is 00:12:56 of this thing called Senate reconciliation. And the thing about Senate reconciliation is that you can't filibuster them. So these can just get rammed through really, really quickly. And there's not going to be enough opposition in the house to stop it either. So, I mean, some of this stuff probably could be done with executive orders, but it's quite possible you won't even need that because it can just be rammed

Starting point is 00:13:16 through in spending bills. Which is a little bit harder to undo from my understanding. Yeah, yeah. Executive orders can be overturned by the next guy, whereas getting these provisions out is going to take a long time. Yeah. You know, this is another issue that we have the the map for the Democrats retaking the Senate is terrible in 2026 and bad in 2028 too. So I still don't think this is being recorded Friday. I don't think we still actually know what their majority in the Senate is going to be, but it's a lot. And also we know that Joe Manchin is willing to vote for stuff like this because he's done

Starting point is 00:13:48 it already. So this is probably coming quickly. It basically depends on how good their policy people are, which who knows. But yeah, this is not going to be difficult for them to implement and it's going to be extremely damaging. Well That was a lot. Let's take a little bit of a break and when we come back Take another look into what life could be like under a second Trump term We are back. The threat to trans people does not only come from Congress and the president. One of the things that's almost certainly going to happen very soon is there is currently a case about a trans health care ban for minors in Tennessee in front of the Supreme Court.

Starting point is 00:14:42 It's called Scrumetti versus US. We are almost certainly going to lose this. Not losing this requires a bunch of extremely unlikely things happening and this is very very bad. What Scrumedy versus US is probably going to cost us is trans people as a group being protected by the 14th Amendment. So the 14th Amendment is supposed to provide everyone equal protection under the law. The way this has been interpreted is that if you're passing a law that directly targets a group, there's certain levels of scrutiny that have to be applied to it to see whether or not

Starting point is 00:15:15 it's discriminatory and can like be allowed to proceed. What's probably going to happen here is that trans people aren't going to be held as protected at all, which means that the 14th Amendment will not protect us from things that are unbelievably obviously discriminatory, like trans healthcare bans for youth, which is again, literally the same procedures that are happening for trans children are done to cis children all the time and it's fine. So this is very obviously discrimination. We're probably going to lose it because the Supreme Court is full of a bunch of the worst people in the entire world. It is technically possible that Gorsuch defects and drags someone else over and we

Starting point is 00:15:50 get a thing that says we have intermediate scrutiny. That would be the best win we could possibly get on this. It's extremely, it's unlikely. We're probably going to lose it. And this is also going to overturn the landmark case, both stock versus Clayton County, which is the one that rules that you can't discriminate against trans people based on gender identity, specifically for like employers as well. Yeah, for employers, specifically for employers. So what we could very well be about to lose. And again, this is this is another thing that's very high likelihood because this case is already in front of the

Starting point is 00:16:21 Supreme Court and the Supreme Court hates us. We could be about to lose employment discrimination protections. Now to be fair, and I think most trans people who are listening to this show know this, I don't know how many cis people understand this, but the level of trans employment discrimination in the workplace is unbelievable. Yeah, this isn't really enforced at all. It's pretty bad. It is something that right now is technically possible to do and

Starting point is 00:16:46 You're not allowed to just straight-up say it But you know like there is a reason that the unemployment rate for trans people is like three times as high no It's actually yeah, I think it's about three times as high as the rate for cis people right? We don't have great data. There's some data from the trans longitudinal survey from 2022 But the full report isn't out yet But what I will say is that the trans level unemployment unemployment right, but the full report isn't out yet. But what I will say is that the trans level of unemployment, unemployment right now in the US is very low. The level of unemployment for trans people is 1936 Great Depression levels. And this

Starting point is 00:17:14 is before we lose these these protections. It is also worth noting this will not overturn like state level protections. So if you're in a state that like has specifically banned it, you will have some more recourse but we're losing 14th amendment protections. On a federal level would basically allow explicit employment discrimination yeah if if someone's trans. It's possible that case goes like marginally better for us and that doesn't happen but it's hard to see how that would happen. The lawyers I talked to will say this is not a legal opinion, but they seem to think that this is how this would go,

Starting point is 00:17:49 and the policy people seem to think it'd be going the same way. Yeah. There's some other things that can happen. Trump has been promising we're going to get federal investigations into clinics that provide gender-affirming care. Also went to hospitals. There's going to be enormous legal harassment. This has already been happening on a sort of lower level but from sort of individual lawsuits and state attorney generals

Starting point is 00:18:09 Yeah, but this is gonna be happening with the full backing of the Department of Justice You can look at like what Texas has been doing the past four years Yeah with them investigating not just clinics, but also like parents of trans kids Yeah parents like individual health care providers He was also pledging to investigate like the companies that make hormones. So that's bad. There's also the Department of Justice has been making some incredibly half-ass attempts to try to go after some of the healthcare bans. That's all

Starting point is 00:18:36 gonna stop. They're just gonna give all that up. There's also a bunch of bills that could be passed depending on the Democrats willingness to filibuster them. So Trump has called for a ban of trans people like playing sports that correspond with their gender and that may well pass because the Democrats are cowards and the Republicans are going to have a large majority in the Senate. Yep. Trump has also pushed for a ban on gender affirming care for minors, including HRT's homo replacement therapy, which is like one of the

Starting point is 00:19:06 main ways you transition and puberty blockers that one is less likely to make it through the Senate. But it also again depends on how cowardly the democrats are and how much they decide to cave. And this is the moment that there is another thing that you can do and you should start doing this right now, which is this is the moment right now to start pressuring your congressperson about this, like start calling them, start pressuring them and start making sure that they don't fully sort of turn on trans rights. This is something that you can concretely do right now, because these people need to understand that there are consequences for turning on trans people because if there aren't consequences, they're going to do it. Now, Trump has also called for

Starting point is 00:19:44 a ban on recognizing trans people at the federal level on like all identification documents, things like that. Also without law, non-binary markings on passports and stuff. That would also be really bad. That's also something that probably requires a law. And that's again and everything. Call your congresspeople, pressure them now. Start doing it now.

Starting point is 00:20:05 Do not wait until he's actually in office. And like all of these issues are things that public opinion has been shifting on greatly the past like two years. Yeah, these things used to be much more kind of seen as like, yeah, this like makes sense. This is like a humane and reasonable effort to include a group of discriminated people. And now we see in a growing number, a majority of people poll on this issue do not support these measures. They don't support having the ability to have your gender

Starting point is 00:20:31 marker, match your gender identity. They don't support your ability to participate in public life. And that is the result of an intentional misinformation campaign and essentially like a hate crime campaign and a hate speech campaign that has been going on for the past like four years because Republicans knew that they already lost the battle on like regular gay people. So they moved on to the next subjugated class. And that's something we've talked about for a while. And this is like something that is shifting.

Starting point is 00:20:58 So you have to actually verbally express to to your representatives that this is something that you actually do care about. expressed to to your representatives that this is something that you actually do care about. Otherwise, they will look at these like general polls and be like, oh, I guess this isn't popular anymore and shift and cave on it. They need to know that their constituents actually do care about these things if we want these things to not get passed through Congress. Yeah. And it's also worth mentioning that a lot of this people just don't know anything about about trans people because we're like 1% of the population right now. Part of the reason the Republican campaign is working is that people are susceptible to being told things about trans people and believing them, but that also works for us. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:21:32 Right. It goes both ways. Part of what's been going on is that like we haven't had the kind of giant advocacy push outside of some trans people, but we have no money, we have no resources, and we need there to actually be large, widespread and vocal public support because otherwise all of the stuff that's happening here is going to get even worse. And you know, the word when we could get very well the worst case scenario things which are full bans for adults. That's the thing that they could pass through Congress, but right now they don't have the support for it. However, comma, as Kirsten is going to get to, there are signs that the

Starting point is 00:22:09 Democratic Party is deciding to throw us under the bus. Yeah. Not as steadfast on this issue than what we would probably prefer. Yeah, and on the state level, I guess the important thing for the state level is that once we lose 14th Amendment protections, it's going to be so much harder for there to be legal challenges to any of this. And this means we're going to see a proliferation of these state level bans on health care, even sort of marching ahead of where the federal government is. Let's have our last break. And when we come back, we will close the episode by discussing

Starting point is 00:22:40 Trump's focus on trans issues during his campaign, as well as things that you can start doing right now to get ready and prepare for these next four years. Alright, we are back. During the last few months of Trump's campaign, his team shifted away from the key issues of the economy and immigration in their national election ad efforts, and specifically honed in on trans issues as a wedge against Kamala Harris and the Democrats in general. The infamous Kamala is for they them ad being the prime example of this. According to a PBS report, from October

Starting point is 00:23:26 7th to October 20th, Trump's campaign and pro-Trump groups spent an estimated $39 million on anti-trans ads. And Trump ended up spending more money on these ads than on housing, immigration, and the economy combined. This was his main focus in his final ad push, specifically after the September debate. A new report from journalist Casey Parks using data from Ad Impact shows that Republicans spent nearly $215 million on anti-trans ads this election cycle, and this figure does not include cable or streaming ads. This is just network TV. And these anti-trans ads weren't just focused on the presidential election. Other Republicans in various Senate races picked up on the success of these anti-trans ads and used them in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Now,

Starting point is 00:24:18 initially some thought that maybe this would be a repeat of 2022. Maybe this extra focus on this small group of the population wouldn't lead to kind of electoral successes, pointing to how a similar strategy failed during the 2022 midterms. But then Election Day came and we saw that there was a degree of success, or at least these did not hurt them in any substantial way. And Republicans won many of these Senate races on anti-trans campaign messages. I'm going to quote from an article in the New York Times called Trump and the Republicans

Starting point is 00:24:49 Bet Big on Anti-Trans ads across the country. Quote, the Kamala is for they them ad was rated as one of his campaigns more effective in September in some Democratic testing, according to results reviewed by the Times. Republican strategists said the focus on transgender women and girls in sports had been particularly effective with a key group of voters the party had hemorrhaged support from in recent years – college-educated women. One of the things you see in the focus groups is that the moms get really visibly angry on this issue, said Jim McLaughlin, a Republican pollster who works for Mr. Trump and other

Starting point is 00:25:25 Republican campaigns. Quote, it's a fairness issue. They don't want their daughters to lose a scholarship, and they don't want them to get hurt. Unquote. The enthusiasm for this issue kind of lines up with what me, Sophie, and Robert saw at the RNC, where anti-trans statements consistently got the loudest applause. Though some state-level Democrats, like Representative Seth Moulton of Massachusetts and Tom Sulze

Starting point is 00:25:48 of New York, as well as some other DNC advisors, have jumped onto the blame game, citing trans issues as if not the reason, then a reason Democrats just completely fumbled this election, claiming that the Democratic Party is far to the left on trans issues than the average American. But largely, the Dems were not out campaigning for trans people, loud and proud, the selection cycle. Trans issues were intentionally pushed offstage at the DNC, and the Harris campaign tried their hardest to sidestep this issue, giving vague non-answers on whether trans people should be able to receive healthcare by just stating that her administration would quote

Starting point is 00:26:22 unquote follow the law and invoking states' rights type framing. And I see this as just a massive failure to confront an issue that Republicans have like slingshot into the spotlight. And it shows a failure to do things because it's like the right thing to do, not just necessarily for some like electoral gain. Well, even on a strategic level. Right. We saw this with border policy, too.

Starting point is 00:26:47 Right. Exactly. Democrats adopted the Republicans border policy and then they lost. Exactly. And it's like, yeah, if you just agree or refuse to contest them on their core issues, then that's what people are going to believe, because people have a tendency to believe what their elites are telling them. You can't defeat these people's ideology by just agreeing with it or stepping out of the way of it. That just lets it spread. I think this is going to be proven to be like the biggest mistake Democrats made this election

Starting point is 00:27:11 cycle. Like you can't just cede territory to the right based on a massive disinformation campaign, which is exactly what the Democrats did on immigration and crime. And they showed a willingness to do that on trans rights. Now, even if some of these people, Democrats included, claim to not like hate trans people individually, they have allowed questions around access to bathrooms, sports, and government-funded healthcare to be used as a wedge against trans rights as a whole, and the ability for trans people to be able to exist in public life. To close, I think we should have just a brief discussion on what people can do specifically during these next 75 days and even in the months after, like what people

Starting point is 00:27:50 can do to prepare for some of the worst aspects of this, specifically on the healthcare front. Now we did a series of episodes a few years ago on DIY HRT. There are both pharmaceutical and home brewed options for hormones that can be ordered online. Now, since that episode, home-brewed distribution networks have spread throughout the United States. There's probably one already in whatever city is closest to you. Now, access to those networks does require a degree of, like, in-person community. And I know that can be challenging. You can certainly do organizing online on Discord.

Starting point is 00:28:25 You can certainly find trans people on Discord that can help you learn where pharmaceutical-grade estrogen can be ordered online. But that type of online organizing will only get more dangerous under a Trump term, especially if the legal status of these hormones change. So I will always emphasize the importance of in-person community. And it might just take learning if there's a trans band in the city you're in, going to some shows, learning where trans people go, where trans people gather. Is there community picnics? Is there book fairs? Is there zine fairs? Is there even gaming conventions, right? Just places that there might be a number of trans people gathered and talk to them about being gathered and talk to them about

Starting point is 00:29:06 being trans, talk to them about the issues that you're facing. It might take a few months to like gain trust and become friends, but that's just how friendships work anyway. And that can be challenging. And there may not be something like this in a city super close to you, which is why online connections are useful. And sometimes that might require a little bit of travel. Now, what we can do, at least right now, is stockpile things in case things get harder to maintain or produce.

Starting point is 00:29:31 There's multiple forms of these hormones that can be stored, and I do believe that there will be some form of home-brewed option that will most likely continue to exist even if prescribed hormones get restricted. And part of why I emphasize kind emphasize doing this in person as well, especially if you're a minor, that will just get more dangerous to do under a second Trump term. I will point people to the website DIYHRT.wiki. It's currently the best information source on dosing, testing, how to find supplies, and options for ordering hormones.

Starting point is 00:30:04 Now, because changing legal paperwork on the federal or state level often takes a while, if that's something that you want to do, now is the time to start. There's still 70 days until Trump takes office and some of these changes could start being put into effect. You should absolutely apply for a passport. Now, depending on many variables, it may be advantageous to have your legal name and gender marker match whatever you more easily pass as, rather than your gender identity. Now, I understand why this is less than ideal, and if you think that this might just inhibit your transition progress and push you further back into the closet,

Starting point is 00:30:45 especially if the option of changing your gender marker on federal documents just like goes away during the next four years, then people should just go ahead and get that stuff changed ASAP. But it's something to reflect on and consider. Lastly, I want to mention something about personal safety. Over the course of the past week, I've heard from friends around the country experiencing a spike in anti-queer and misogynistic violence. Chuds, frat boys, and just asshole men have been way more willing to openly harass queer people out in public.

Starting point is 00:31:22 Some of this I think is just Trump supporters quote unquote celebrating the election results. But once Trump takes office, I expect this type of harassment to start slowly increasing as truds feel like they can get away with more just open misogyny, homophobia, racism, etc. I know a lot of people have been talking about or posting about buying firearms and firearms is one of the last things you should buy in a panic. This is a very careful and calculated choice you need to make about your own personal safety, your own mental health, your own willingness to carry and train with a gun. This is its own topic. But I do recommend buying and carrying pepper gel for basically all queer people and women.

Starting point is 00:32:05 and buying and carrying pepper gel for basically all queer people and women. It's a great self-defense tool. It spreads less than pepper spray, so you're going to be less likely to just spray yourself. Sabre is a good brand. Buy it for yourself. Buy it for your friends. Mia, do you have anything else you want to add? Yeah, yeah. Two things. One, people have been asking for book recommendations, so we're giving them to you. We're only giving them to you at the end of the episode. You got to stay around.

Starting point is 00:32:28 And I think something that's good to read in this moment on trans issues is Julia Serrano's book Whipping Girl. I've had Julia Serrano on the show before she is one of the most important. I mean, honestly, like feminist theorists of the last like of this century. And there's a new edition of whipping girl that's come out recently. And it is it is one of the fundamental sort of hacks to understand the experience of trans femme people in this country, and why things have gotten the way that they've gotten.

Starting point is 00:32:58 So yeah, go go read whipping girl. It's spectacular. And then I want to plug one more thing that you can give money to. So I mean, again, another very effective way for cis people to support trans people is give them money because all of us are unbelievably broke, like all of the time. Another place you can give money to is the trans justice funding project. We'll have that in this too. And they give out grants to other just like trans groups who are doing organizing or doing other kinds of support work, mutual aid, etc.

Starting point is 00:33:26 So that's money that goes directly to trans people. Yeah, and then obviously, as we've said, this is the Four Cis People part of the episode after our Four Trans People part. Go call your congresspeople, go pressure them, go show up to their offices, and make it extremely clear that it is unacceptable to write off trans people, and that they need to be willing to successfully stop these writers

Starting point is 00:33:50 and successfully do whatever they can to channel the works to make sure that the Republicans cannot pass bills that will harm us even more than the things that they're already going to do. Hey guys, I'm Kate Max. You might know me from my popular online series, The Running Interview Show, where I run with celebrities, athletes, entrepreneurs, and more. After those runs, the conversations keep going. That's what my podcast, Post Run High, is all about. It's a chance to sit down with my guests and dive even deeper into their stories, their

Starting point is 00:34:38 journeys, and the thoughts that arise once we've hit the pavement together. You know that rush of endorphins you feel after a great workout? Well, that's when the real magic happens. So if you love hearing real, inspiring stories from the people you know, follow, and admire, join me every week for Post Run High. It's where we take the conversation beyond the run and get into the heart of it all.

Starting point is 00:35:03 It's lighthearted, pretty pretty crazy and very fun. Listen to post run high on the I heart radio app Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to the end of the film would you join me at the fire and tear and. at the fire and dare enter. Nocturnum, Tales from the Shadows, presented by I Heart and Sonora, an anthology of modern-day horror stories inspired

Starting point is 00:35:34 by the legends of Latin America. From ghastly encounters with shapeshifters to bone-chilling brushes with supernatural creatures. No. Take a trip and experience the horrors that have haunted Latin America since the beginning of time. Listen to Nocturnal, Tales from the Shadows,

Starting point is 00:36:04 as part of my cultura podcast network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. On Thanksgiving Day, 1999, a five-year-old boy floated alone in the ocean. He had lost his mother trying to reach Florida from Cuba. He looked like a little angel. I mean, he looked so fresh.

Starting point is 00:36:29 And his name, Elian Gonzalez, will make headlines everywhere. Elian Gonzalez. Elian, Elian. Elian Gonzalez. Elian. Elian. Elian Gonzalez. At the heart of the story is a young boy

Starting point is 00:36:41 and the question of who he belongs with. His father in Cuba. Mr. Gonzalez wanted to go home and he wanted to take his son with him. Or his relatives in Miami. Imagine that your mother died trying to get you to freedom. At the heart of it all is still this painful family separation.

Starting point is 00:37:01 Something that as a Cuban, I know all too well. Listen to Ches Piz, the Elian Gonzalez story as part of the MyCultura podcast network available on the iHeart radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hola mi gente, it's Honey German and I'm bringing you Gracias Come Again, the podcast where we dive deep into the world of Latin culture, music, películas and entertainment with some of the biggest names in the game. If you love hearing real conversations with your favorite Latin celebrities,

Starting point is 00:37:31 artists and culture shifters, this is the podcast for you. We're talking real conversations with our Latin stars, from actors and artists to musicians and creators sharing their stories, struggles and successes. You know, it's going to be filled with cheese man laughs and all the vibes that you love. Each week we'll explore everything, from music and pop culture to deeper topics like identity, community, and breaking down barriers in all sorts of industries.

Starting point is 00:37:55 Don't miss out on the fun, El Te Caliente and life stories. Join me for Gracias Come Again, a podcast by Honey German, where we get into todo lo actual y viral. Listen to Gracias Come Again on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Muhammad Ali, George Foreman, James Brown, BB King, Miriam Makeba. I shook up the world.

Starting point is 00:38:20 James Brown said, said love. And Mekia said, I'm black and I'm proud. Black boxing stars and black music royalty together in the heart of Zaire, Africa. Three days of music and then the boxing event. What was going on in the world at the time made this fight as important that anything else is going on on the planet. My grandfather laid on the ropes

Starting point is 00:38:43 and let George Foreman basically just punch himself out. Welcome to Rumble, the story of a world in transformation. The 60s and prior to that, you couldn't call a person black. And how we arrived at this peak moment. I don't have to be what you want me to be. We all came from the continent of Africa. Listen to Rumble, Ali, Foreman, and the soul of 74 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hello everyone, and welcome back to It Could Happen here.

Starting point is 00:39:26 I'm Robert Evans, and along with all of our other correspondents, I'm looking forward to what we can expect from the Trump administration, which is a broad and far reaching question given the ambitions that Trump and the others who I think will be involved in this new administration have already expressed. And the elevator pitch theme of today's episode is what's gonna happen in Gaza once Trump is president again? Will things get better or worse?

Starting point is 00:39:55 Obviously the expectation is worse. I think that's where certainly the safe money goes if you're putting money on this. But the short answer to that question is no one fully knows. Now, the first thing that I did when trying to prepare for this episode was track down as many articles as I could that included interviews with Gazans about their expectations. And those expectations were largely negative, but a little more mixed than you might expect. A Reuters reporter interviewed Abu Osama,

Starting point is 00:40:25 living in Khan Yunis in the Southern Gaza Strip. He called Trump's election a quote, new catastrophe in the history of the Palestinian people, adding, despite the destruction, death and displacement that we have witnessed, what is coming will be more difficult. It will be politically devastating. This essentially agrees with what a Palestinian coming will be more difficult. It will be politically devastating."

Starting point is 00:40:45 This essentially agrees with what a Palestinian from Beit Lahiya in the Northern Gaza Strip, Ahmed Jarad told Al Jazeera, quote, Trump and Netanyahu are an evil alliance against the Palestinians and our fate will be very difficult, not only in the fateful issues, but also in our daily concerns. This is a sad day for Palestinians. Trump will endorse Netanyahu's free hand regarding the possibility of the return of settlements to the Gaza Strip and even the displacement of large numbers of Palestinians outside it. We hope to return to the North, and now all of our hopes have been shattered.

Starting point is 00:41:19 And unfortunately, Jared's fears here have been immediately proven well-founded. On November 6th, as the rest of the world reeled from Trump's victory, IDF Brigadier General Itzik Cohen told Israeli reporters, there is no intention of allowing the residents of the northern Gaza Strip to return to their homes. Humanitarian aid would only be allowed to enter through the south. His justification was that there are no more civilians in the north. Reporting from The Guardian interviewed several international humanitarian law experts, and the members of that likely dying field described Israeli actions here as war crimes, the forcible transfer of civilian populations, and the use of food as a weapon are supposed to be

Starting point is 00:42:03 banned. Despite this, we can safely assume that there will be no serious consequences as a result of any of this. The timing of this announcement was predominant, and it is not unreasonable to suggest that Israel might not have been as bold as they're currently being if Harris had won. Another Gazan, 70-year-old Dr. Zakia Hilal, told Al Jazeera, it is true that American administrations do not differ in supporting Israel, but some are more severe and more intense than others, like Trump.

Starting point is 00:42:34 You can find numerous Gazans expressing feelings along these lines if you read long enough, but you will also find a number who feel like what's coming won't be worse, or at least won't be very different from what they've already endured. Jehad Malaka, a researcher at the Palestinian Planning Center, told Al Jazeera he does not expect Trump's administration to be wildly different from Biden's in this regard. Trump uses rough tools, and Biden and the Democrats resort to soft tools, but the politics are the same. Biden did not make any decision in favor of the Palestinians and was unable to achieve

Starting point is 00:43:07 a ceasefire. He did not change the reality of the decisions of his predecessor Trump at all. The positions of the two administrations regarding Israel are the same and identical, and they put its interests above all other considerations. You can also find some Gazans who see a sliver of hope in Trump's new administration. Reuters spoke with the owner of a grocery store in Gaza, Khaled D'Souza, who told their reporter, I think Donald Trump, if he wins, he promised the Muslim people in America to stop the war in Gaza.

Starting point is 00:43:38 We hope that happens. And it's not necessarily absurd to hope that there may be some positive effects here. Trump has said many horrible things about Palestinians, obviously, several weeks before the election. He had a phone call with Netanyahu that may have been a violation of the Logan Act, although laws don't really matter anymore. Here's how Slate.com summarized what happened in that call. According to Trump, the Israeli leader said he disregarded President Joe Biden's warning

Starting point is 00:44:05 to keep troops out of Rafa in southern Gaza, a decision that resulted in the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Senwar and a shootout in the area. Trump also said Netanyahu asked him for advice on how to respond to Iran's missile attack on Israel, to which Trump said he responded, do whatever you have to do. Now, that's a dire sign, and it is impossible to imagine that a new Trump regime won't restart the sale and shipment of specific munitions that Biden banned for export to Israel. This July, Biden halted the shipment of 2,000 pound bombs

Starting point is 00:44:36 to the IDF because, quote, they cannot be used in Gaza or any populated area without causing great human tragedy and damage. Now, the fact that munitions like this will very likely be used as hideous, and I think it's extremely unlikely that we do not see an immediate rise in the death toll. But at the same time, Israel's extant acts have caused great human tragedy and damage. The munitions they have have already been responsible for calamitous death and destruction on a fairly wide scale. So where's the cause for any optimism on this at all? It comes from Trump's own self-interest. As Khalid D'Souza noted, Trump ran promising to end wars. This means he does have

Starting point is 00:45:18 some vested interest, even if only in his own ego, in forcing Netanyahu to draw things to a close in short order. And there is indeed reporting that Trump has told Netanyahu to wrap things up by January, so that he can take office with an end to the conflict and ideally use that as a way to kind of bolster his early popularity and gain some political capital for the other sweeping changes he wants to make. Now, the fact that Trump is pushing Netanyahu

Starting point is 00:45:46 on ending things in January doesn't mean a sudden peaceful ceasefire. For one thing, nothing is going to happen in the months between then and now to reduce the level of bloodshed. And almost every likely theoretical ends with Israel massively escalating violence and using new, more destructive weapons

Starting point is 00:46:02 before bringing an end to their campaign. But it does mean that Trump might be able to pressure Bibi to bring things to an end. There's a good article on this in the BBC, No guarantees Trump will give Netanyahu all he wants. Now, in that piece, Mideast correspondent Lucy Williamson writes, Donald Trump's first term in office was exemplary as far as Israel is concerned, said Michael Orrin, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States. The hope is that he'll revisit that, but we have to be very clear-sighted about who Donald

Starting point is 00:46:32 Trump is and what he stands for. Firstly, he said, the former president doesn't like wars, seeing them as expensive. Trump has urged Israel to finish the war in Gaza quickly. He's also not a big fan of Israel's settlements in the occupied West Bank, said Ambassador Orrin, and has opposed the wishes of some Israeli leaders to annex parts of it. Both of these policies could put him in conflict with far-right parties in Netanyahu's current governing coalition, who have threatened to bring down the government if the prime minister pursues policies they reject.

Starting point is 00:47:03 Michael Orrin believes Netanyahu will need to take a different approach with the incoming president. If Donald Trump comes to office in January and says, okay, you have a week to finish the war, Netanyahu is going to have to respect that. And we'll continue talking about what this means, but first, here's some ants. So it is possible that we will see a quick end to the violence in January and perhaps a quicker one than we would have seen under Harris. That's the best case scenario and not necessarily the likeliest one.

Starting point is 00:47:43 And I should reemphasize here that best case scenario still means that we will probably see a massive escalation in violence as the IDF seeks to force more people out of Northern Gaza and in the conflict with a large slice of Gaza permanently wrenched from Palestinian control and handed over to Israeli settlers. There is no version of what comes next that is not a calamity to the Palestinian people. The signs from within the Israeli government on what a new Trump administration means for them are certainly bullish, you could say. And reading these tea leaves provides very little fuel for optimism.

Starting point is 00:48:22 Itmar Ben-Gvir, the minister of national security, posted yes with several S's and an emoji of a flexed bicep in a post on social media when the first good return started coming in for Trump. On the day of the election itself and a sign of confidence in the coming results, Bibi Netanyahu fired his defense minister, Yov Galant, who had been his primary point of contact

Starting point is 00:48:44 with the Biden administration. And it's harder to imagine a much more direct sign of what he wants to do than that. Now I've struggled to present the sweep of possible results of this, and it bears reiterating that the bulk of predictions from Gazans who are plugged in to the politics of the region are incredibly negative. Ahmed Fayyad, an independent researcher in Israeli affairs, who currently resides in central Gaza, told Al Jazeera that he felt Trump's influence would be entirely negative, adding that Trump was a quote, more dominating figure than Biden.

Starting point is 00:49:19 And his influence would allow Netanyahu to quote, conquer Gaza, quote, amidst the weakened Palestinian front and absence of any Arab unity and solidarity, the whole Palestinian cause faces its worst threat yet. Now, what does bear watching is the degree to which Bibi might face threats from his own right flank. Netanyahu himself is almost certainly on the side of doing what will please his patron Trump all the more.

Starting point is 00:49:46 And that would be forcing a quick violent end to the fighting and taking northern Gaza as the spoils of war. But this might bring him into conflict with radicals on his own side who can't be placated by anything but what they would see as total victory. In the event Netanyahu feels pushed, it is not impossible that he will wind up in conflict with Trump. This has happened before, as Bibi's sense of self-preservation led him to take actions that enraged Trump. The best example of this took place in the immediate aftermath of the 2020 election, if you want to think back to those happier days. Bibi was again the first world leader to call and offer Biden congratulations on his victory as he was with Trump.

Starting point is 00:50:28 This is a habit for the man who among other things is an expert at toting for favor with US leaders. Trump was livid and he spoke out about this, telling Israeli journalist Barak Ravid that he believed that he had saved Israel from destruction and in response Netanyahu had stabbed him in the back. I'm gonna quote now from an article in the BBC. Mr. Trump accused Mr. Netanyahu

Starting point is 00:50:51 of congratulating too quickly Mr. Trump's successor, Joe Biden on winning the 2020 US election. Mr. Trump disputed the election result, though his claims were never upheld. The first person who congratulated Joe Biden was Bibi. The man that I did more for than any other person I dealt with. Bebe could have stayed quiet. He has made a terrible mistake. He was very early, Mr. Trump said, like

Starting point is 00:51:12 earlier than most. I haven't spoken to him since. Fuck him. I actually don't know that he said fuck the the actual text of the article says expletive him. But I'm assuming he said fuck him. I think that's probably a fair assumption for me to make. Now, some evidence does suggest that Trump and Bibi don't personally get along as that quote I just read implies, certainly not to the degree that Netanyahu and Biden once did, once I should say.

Starting point is 00:51:40 This may hinge partly on the fact that Trump really only believes in himself and his own benefit, whereas Joe Biden was a strong and committed believer in Israel and was willing to take actions against his own political self-interest in furtherance of that belief. And we've all seen where those actions got him. Just last December, Trump attacked Netanyahu at an early campaign rally in New York, saying Bibi had, quote, let us down by pulling Israeli support for the operation that killed Iranian general Qasem Soleimani at the last

Starting point is 00:52:10 minute. He also criticized the Israeli leader for not being prepared for Hamas's October 7th attack. Now I want to be clear here that these divisions between both men are blisteringly unlikely to mean anything that approaches relief for the Palestinian people, at least in the near term. The immediate and probably long-term future of Gaza is much bleaker today than it was a few weeks ago.

Starting point is 00:52:36 The Guardian recently published an article interviewing former CIA director and defense secretary Leon Panetta. He predicted Trump would give Bibi a blank check for aggression, which might invite the possibility of open war with Iran. Now, that's the kind of thing that can lead one to panic, especially when you assume a guy like Panetta is privy to a lot of inside information we may not be, but I'm actually not really sure that he is.

Starting point is 00:53:00 I don't see any evidence from this article that Panetta is speaking from direct personal knowledge about extant plans to carry out an attack. Instead, he quoted Trump's description of the call that Trump had had with Bibi before the election, telling Netanyahu, do whatever you have to do. So Leon may just be working from the same information the rest of us have and coming to a somewhat different conclusion. I'm not as sure as he is about an imminent attack on Iran because Trump

Starting point is 00:53:28 campaigned heavily on ending wars. And while I don't credit Trump as a particularly honest man, I do think he sees his personal benefit right now. And being able to portray himself as a peacemaker in part because he has so much domestically he wants to do and so much else internationally he wants to do, right? Expending a bunch of political capital, dealing with the kinds of protests and unrest and even anger from his base that a war with Iran would mean,

Starting point is 00:53:53 especially once it gets bogged down and the kind of violence that would come with that, he may not and likely doesn't see that as being of benefit to him. Now that doesn't mean it will never happen. It doesn't mean his calculus won't change. I do foresee some situations in which Trump might decide that his personal benefit is in there being

Starting point is 00:54:13 a wider ground conflict with Iran that US forces get drawn into. We'll talk a little bit about some of the possibilities around this and we're getting outside of the realm of kind of established fact at this point, but I do think it's worth considering some of the possibilities around this. And we're getting outside of the realm of kind of established fact at this point, but I do think it's worth considering some of this. But first, consider these ads. So when we talk about the possibility of a ground conflict

Starting point is 00:54:47 with Iran starting between Israel and Iran, but almost inevitably drawing in more US forces, the known unknowns and unknown knowns in this situation are pretty staggering. If I let myself analyze every possibility, my mind can go to some dark places. Trump sees war with Iran as a negative now, I'm quite sure, but how would he feel about it in the wake of say, a Musk centered plan to end the Federal Reserve and tank the dollar in the wake of the changes that all of his immigration policies would make on the price of food,

Starting point is 00:55:16 the depression era levels of inflation and unemployment returning to the United States and the attendant social unrest that that would cause. If Americans find themselves on the verge of food riots, perhaps Trump would gamble on war being the best distraction he could manage. It's certainly not impossible. Now, I don't know how useful it is to bury myself in theoreticals and probabilities. The known threats are dire enough and they demand full-time awareness in order to attempt to counter and endure. So instead of spiraling, I'm going to leave you today with the words of another Gazan, Mohammed R. Maush.

Starting point is 00:55:51 He's a journalist who wrote an article for MSNBC right after the election titled, My Family and I Survived the War in Gaza. We Know Trump's America Won't Save Us. And here's Mohammed. For us, the election of Donald Trump isn't just a blip on the political radar or a shift in foreign policy. It's a challenge to sustain existence while the world seems intent on erasing us. It's about surviving 77 years under occupation and over a year of ongoing genocide.

Starting point is 00:56:19 The very genocide I barely survived last December, when my family and I, including my elderly parents and three-year-old son, were buried under the rubble of what was once our home after it was struck by an Israeli-fired U.S. missile. The date, December 7, 2023. Our bones were crushed between layers of concrete and twisted metal as we spent hours in the dark, buried together and praying to be pulled out in one piece. The trauma of that night, in both its physical and emotional toll of my son's small, fragile

Starting point is 00:56:48 hand clinging to mind, comes back to me now as Trump prepares to take power once more. I've seen how American political leaders toy with the idea of change, how they dress up their campaigns with grand ideas about peace and justice. Yet each president brushes off our reality. Barack Obama promised hope and change we could believe in, yet we got more bombs. Joe Biden offered a different approach, pledging and yielding support for Israel,

Starting point is 00:57:13 leaving us to live through even more horror. Vice President Kamala Harris' niceties included no concrete promises to protect Palestinians, but she did pledge to continue financial support for Israel. And Trump's bluntness, as he promises to come Palestinians, but she did pledge to continue financial support for Israel. And Trump's bluntness as he promises to come back swinging reminds us not to hold out hope for change." So, you know, not much optimism here, but I do really recommend reading that article

Starting point is 00:57:40 that MSNBC published. You know, it's bleak, but important, especially given the fact that we may be soon entering a world where it would be harder for people like Mohammed to express their feelings and their truth to an audience. I don't think it's unlikely that a clampdown is coming on some of these things. It's hard to say how extensive it will be, but there's a threat that you know Israel and their backers see and the way that public sympathy has built so quickly for Gaza in a way that wasn't present with a lot of previous stages of violence between Israel and Gaza, right? Now this is the result of a lot of videos spreading on social media. It's the result on

Starting point is 00:58:23 voices from Gaza getting out and getting to people in a way they really hadn't before. And so one thing that does worry me greatly when I think about what's going to happen in Gaza under president Trump is not just what's going to happen to the people living there right now, but what's going to happen to their ability to tell their story, to get information out

Starting point is 00:58:42 to the rest of us. That is very much an open question at this moment, but it's certainly one that should be on your lips, and it's one that we will be investigating here at Cool Zone, as long as we're able to continue doing that. Until next time, I'm Robert Evans. We'll be back tomorrow tomorrow and every other day reporting on, you know, the world. Hey guys, I'm Kate Max. You might know me from my popular online series, The Running Interview Show, where I run with celebrities, athletes, entrepreneurs, and more. After those runs, the conversations keep going.

Starting point is 00:59:34 That's what my podcast, Post Run High, is all about. It's a chance to sit down with my guests and dive even deeper into their stories, their journeys, and the thoughts that arise once we've hit the pavement together. You know that rush of endorphins you feel after a great workout? Well, that's when the real magic happens. So if you love hearing real, inspiring stories from the people you know, follow, and admire, join me every week for Post Run High. It's where we take the conversation beyond the run

Starting point is 01:00:06 and get into the heart of it all. It's lighthearted, pretty crazy, and very fun. Listen to Post Run High on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome, I'm Danny Thrill. Would you join me at the fire and dare enter Nocturnum, Tales from the Shadows, presented by I Heart and Sonora. An anthology of modern-day horror stories

Starting point is 01:00:37 inspired by the legends of Latin America. From ghastly encounters with shapeshifters, to bone-chilling brushes with supernatural creatures. Take a trip and experience the horrors that have haunted Latin America America since the beginning of time. Listen to Nocturne, Tales from the Shadows, as part of my cultura podcast network, available on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. On Thanksgiving Day 1999, a five-year-old boy floated alone in the ocean. He had lost his mother trying to reach Florida from Cuba.

Starting point is 01:01:31 He looked like a little angel. I mean he looked so fresh. And his name, Elian Gonzalez, will make headlines everywhere. Elian Gonzalez. Elian Gonzalez. Elian Gonzalez. Elian Gonzalez. Elian. Elian. Elian Gonzalez. At the heart of the story is a young boy and the question of who he belongs with. His father in Cuba.

Starting point is 01:01:51 Mr. Gonzalez wanted to go home and he wanted to take his son with him. Or his relatives in Miami. Imagine that your mother died trying to get you to freedom. At the heart of it all is still this painful family separation. Something that as a Cuban, I know all too well. Listen to Chess Piece, the Elian Gonzalez story, as part of the MyCultura podcast network, available on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hola mi gente, it's Honey German and I'm bringing you Gracias Come Again,

Starting point is 01:02:26 the podcast where we dive deep into the world of Latin culture, musica, peliculas and entertainment with some of the biggest names in the game. If you love hearing real conversations with your favorite Latin celebrities, artists and culture shifters, this is the podcast for you.

Starting point is 01:02:39 We're talking real conversations with our Latin stars, from actors and artists to musicians and creators sharing their stories, struggles and successes. You know it's going to be filled with cheese man laughs and all the vibes that you love. Each week we'll explore everything from music and pop culture to deeper topics like identity, community and breaking down barriers in all sorts of industries. Don't miss out on the fun, El Te Caliente and Life Stories. Join me for Gracias Come Again, a podcast by Honey German, where we get into todo lo actual y viral.

Starting point is 01:03:10 Listen to Gracias Come Again on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Muhammad Ali, George Foreman, James Brown, BB King, Miriam Makeba. I shook up the world. James Brown said, said love. And Makeba said, I'm black and I'm proud. Black boxing stars and black music royalty

Starting point is 01:03:32 together in the heart of Zaire, Africa. Three days of music and then the boxing event. What was going on in the world at the time made this fight as important that anything else is going on on the planet. My grandfather laid on the ropes and let George Foreman basically just punch himself out. Welcome to rumble the story of a world in transformation the

Starting point is 01:03:55 60's and prior to that you couldn't call the person black and how we arrived at this peak moment. I don't have to be what you want me to be. We all came from the continent of Africa. Listen to Rumble, Ali, Foreman, and the Soul of 74 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Get Up and Hear, a podcast that's about trade policy now. I'm your host, Mia Wong. This is amazingly going to be the fun one of all of these episodes.

Starting point is 01:04:36 It's about getting tariffs. So it's going to be a long week. Yeah. Yeah. That was the voice of the singular Garrison Davis the one the only yes hello I'm excited to hear about tariffs it's tariff talk here are they could happen here one of my favorite favorite topics I guess now all right guess we're putting you on the spot what is a tariff it's basically. Googling. Tariff. No, a tariff is when Trump says China's bad, so he makes China pay extra money to sell their

Starting point is 01:05:13 goods to Americans. And luckily, China pays for all of it and the American consumer gets off with a boosting economy. That's at least what I've heard. Yeah. So unfortunately for everyone, I don't know, I guess there's some accelerationists who are probably really excited about this. Most certainly. The way this actually works is, okay, so the government sets up a tariff, and that means if

Starting point is 01:05:38 anyone is bringing a good into the US, they have to pay the tariff on it, and that money goes to the government. So, okay, there's been a long history of tariffs in the US. This was a huge domestic policy thing, particularly in the 1800s. That's really fucking boring. The incredibly short version of it is that the thing about tariffs is that especially like tariffs on a specific sector is that they're good for you manufacturing that thing kind of mostly, and they're bad for anyone trying to buy that good because it's now more expensive. So Trump's plan and we're going to get into a bit more detail about this because there's parts of Trump's tariff plan that everyone seems to have forgotten about for some reason

Starting point is 01:06:16 that I don't know why they forgotten about. But the basic plan is to impose something like a 10 to 20 percent tariff on all goods that enter the U.S. from anywhere. There's specifically one for Mexico, but the numbers on what the Mexico tariff is changes every time he opens his mouth. Sometimes it's like 25 percent. There's one where it's like 250 percent. Of course, two interchangeable percentages. Yeah. And then for China, it's supposed to be a tariff of somewhere between 60 percent is the most commonly cited number but he's also said a hundred percent tariff. Once again basically the same thing. Yeah and so you

Starting point is 01:06:54 know part of part of what we unfortunately the rest of us who live in the normal world have to do is figure out what is actually going to happen if we get for example 20 percent tariffs on all goods entering the US and a 60% tariff on goods from China. So the first thing you need to understand, I think most people kind of get this now, but the thing about a tariff is that you pay for it. So the way that it works in general is that this is just an additional cost for the company that's doing that, that's doing that, like moving the good around, right? And so they are almost always going to just pass that cost directly onto

Starting point is 01:07:27 you. Obviously, sometimes we've talked about pricing, the way the pricing works a lot on this show. Companies tend not to want to raise prices largely because of their effects on consumer happiness, and brand loyalty and stuff like that. So sometimes people will just eat shit on it. But if you're talking about a 60% tariff, like you the 60% tariff is going to be paid for by you. So that means that any time we buy something that's either from Mexico or China or any of the other countries that this will be applied to, the easiest way for these companies to get around the tariff is just to pass off the cost to the consumer. Yeah. And it's actually worse than that, because

Starting point is 01:08:05 and this is something I don't think people really understand. When you think about global trade, right, people tend to think about trade as something that happens between countries. And this is something that was an old, you know, dream like the anti-globalization movement. People sort of understood this and kind of don't now trade doesn't actually really happen between countries. Most trade is one company, an international company, moving a resource from one country

Starting point is 01:08:27 to another. Right? So like trade is fucking Amazon moving something from a warehouse in one country to a warehouse in a second country. Right? Now, I've seen a lot of people and this ranges from like very, very serious sort of, you know, news sources and economists trying to sort of just directly model what the price increases are going to be. I've seen people be like, oh, your shirts are going to cost 60% more or physical video

Starting point is 01:08:51 games will stop existing because they're too expensive. And who gives a shit? Why are we even trying to do sectoral modeling of the impacts of this? If you try to impose a 60 to 100% tariff on goods from China and a 20 percent tariff on all goes into the country The economy will collapse. I don't I don't know why everyone is pretending that this won't fucking happen Where we're gonna get into in a second I guess the reason why people are pretending this is happening because the way the way they're doing the modeling kind of assumes that It won't which is baffling

Starting point is 01:09:21 incomprehensible nonsense well, that's especially amusing because the seemingly biggest issue this year around politics Is inflation which has impacted every country around the globe. The US has actually weathered it decently well, although there's been a catastrophic failure in communicating that and Listening to the actual complaints from like people on how they're still struggling with rising inflation. But still, a big reason why Trump was elected is because he simply is not Joe Biden. Yeah.

Starting point is 01:09:51 And he's not from the Biden-Harris administration. And there's this perception that he will be able to fix the economy. He will be able to get around inflation, lower prices, when seemingly his main economic proposal will lead to what's probably going to be an economic collapse if it happens in the brutality of which he proposes. Yeah and there's another element of this right when I say the likely result of Trump actually trying to implement his tariff policy is a global economic collapse. There's another part of this that everyone seems to have

Starting point is 01:10:18 forgotten and I don't know why they've forgotten this I guess it's because nobody actually reads any of the things that Trump puts out on his website. Which is true. No one actually reads that stuff. It's nuts. Especially his own supporters. Yeah. A majority of his own supporters do not pay attention to like daily news.

Starting point is 01:10:33 Yes. And now I remember this because I did an episode about these tariffs like six months ago. And one of the things about this, he has a thing called Agenda 47, right? Which is his agenda for what he's going to do when he takes power. Which no one has cared about, and now everyone is going through and posting policy proposals from like fucking two years ago with the headline, Breaking News, Trump Announces New Plan, and they're like, no he hasn't! These are old plans. This stuff is like two years old, he's been openly talking about all this. Yeah, for ages, and one of the important parts of

Starting point is 01:11:02 this, I'm just gonna read this quote because it is a part of this has been ignored by every single fucking analysis I've seen from like fucking the Center for American Progress who obviously were going to screw this up to like Stanford's labs like everyone who's been writing about this has just ignored this part Which is quote as one of his top economic priorities President Trump will stop the flow of American jobs overseas by passing the Trump reciprocal trade act Trump will stop the flow of American jobs overseas by passing the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act. Under the landmark legislation, if any foreign country imposes a tariff on American-made goods that is higher than the tariff imposed by the U.S., President Trump will have the authority to impose a reciprocal tariff on that country's goods. Okay, so what this would do again is that

Starting point is 01:11:40 any country that has a tariff already or imposes a tariff, and this is important if we get into a trade war where countries start imposing tariffs on each other in retaliation for their other terrorists, which is what happened when he did this trade war with China in like 2018-2019, that means that we're also going to impose a tariff, which means that the tariff rates don't stay at 10 to 20 percent, they cyclically spiral upwards. That's just like an escalating series of tariffs. Yeah, and the thing is, right, the policy proposals that they have on his page are like, well, okay, we're gonna do this through like a presidential act, right? But the thing is, the president actually has really, really, under a number of different acts,

Starting point is 01:12:16 has extremely wide discretionary authority to set tariffs as long as he can basically sort of like cobble together some kind of bullshit excuse for it. And at that point, you're relying on the Supreme Court to stop literally anything that Trump does. Like they don't give a shit. Well. I mean, I don't know. Maybe someone will like go up to like Clarence Thomas and go like, hey, if we do this, like

Starting point is 01:12:36 importing new like windshield wipers for your RV is going to cost $10 million more or whatever. But like, there's no shot of this stuff getting stopped. And the thing is, right, the reciprocal tariffs stuff, he could just do this through his existing tariff authority. He doesn't actually even need to pass something to Congress, which should actually be, I think, tricky for him. But he doesn't need to. You know what we need to do right now, Thomea, just badly, badly

Starting point is 01:12:59 cut to a bunch of companies are going to be absolutely fucking eviscerated. This goes through. That's right. Donald Trump stands for anti-capitalist action. He's going to destroy free trade. So enjoy these ads when you still can. OK, we are back. Mia, let's hear how Trump is going to perfect the capitalist economic system by a series of escalating tariffs that will destroy the economy and in doing so,

Starting point is 01:13:32 providing the opportunity for Marxist to seize power and change the world economic system. Yeah, so I'm going to read another quote from that same Agenda 47 thing. Quote, for example, food items like cereals or other preparatory goods are tariffed at 32.9% by India and 19.5% by China and only 3.1% by the US. India applies a tariff of 25.3% on transportation equipment while the US only tariffs those goes at 2.9%. Now those exact numbers are debatable, but it doesn't matter because these these are going to be vibes based ones based on how pissed off Trump is at a country Yeah, as Trump is usually a vibe space to guy. Yeah, especially when it comes to the economy

Starting point is 01:14:11 Especially when it comes to like these numbers, he's pulling out like between 60 to 100 percent He doesn't know what any of those numbers means He's just thinking of a number and saying it out loud and the thing about all of these things, right, even just the base 20% or let's go to the lowest numbers he's talked about, which is a 10% tariff on all goods and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, right? That in and of itself blows a smoking crater in the world economy. And none of the assessments that you will read are talking about this. One of the things that they will mention that is true, but they're not, you know, getting

Starting point is 01:14:46 to the importance of is that this affects stuff that's made in the U.S. because the thing about things that are made in the U.S. is that they're made from components that are from elsewhere because that's how international supply chains work. Oh, wait, even though we have through tariffs moved all manufacturing of Toyota into the United States, you're saying that still some of the materials are not all solely made and produced within the country and it actually requires foreign trade? Yeah, and part of the problem I think of like, okay, so if you logically think out the conclusions

Starting point is 01:15:16 of what that means, right? First mistake, Amiya, that you're trying to solve this problem through logic. You won't, but here's the thing, right? Obviously Trump is not going to think through this, right? But I kind of expect people who are like writing about this for a living to do mildly better than this. And possibly some of the people that he like hires onto his cabinet and team, maybe, but we'll see. No, no, I'm not talking about like his critics. Oh, sure, sure. One of the numbers you'll see all the time, the Center for American Progress has this line about how the terrorists will function

Starting point is 01:15:44 as a tax that costs the American consumer like $1,700 a year, right? Which was the line that Kamala used pretty often framing his tariffs as like a sales tax. This is fucking horseshit. The only way you can think that the net effect of this would just be a $1,700 tax is if you don't understand how the economy works at all, right? So I went through and read this and the way that they model it is just by like,

Starting point is 01:16:08 they find the like net dollar value of imported goods and then apply a tax to it and then try to figure out like how much of those goods that the average person would buy in a year and then increase the price. But this is something that's very important at the end of the analysis, right? At the very end, there's a little section where they say that they assume this would have no other effects on the economy. This is unbelievably fucking stupid. I cannot emphasize enough. Can you explain why that doesn't make any sense? So OK, so here's the thing, right?

Starting point is 01:16:35 Prices go up. Now people can buy less things. What does that do to the economy? Well, it slows its growth rate, right? Companies start to go out of business and we're going to get into more of the ways that this plays out in a second, right? But a bunch of people in a bunch of places fucking lose their jobs. Because suddenly the reduction in consumer demand means that there's a fucking reduction in necessary production. And this has cyclical effects throughout the entire economy, as more and more people fucking lose their jobs.

Starting point is 01:17:01 And also, you know, the thing about those people who lose their jobs is that that also fucking reduces demand because those people are now even like less able to afford the stuff that's been increased by inflation prices. And this this spirals through the entire world economy. In order to understand what exactly this is going to do, I think we need to understand why, you know, because like if Kamala Harris, I don't know if it makes any difference in the election, but Kamala Harris walks on the stage and says this is going to cost you $1,700. She does not walk on the stage and say this is going to cause an economic collapse, right? And I think I think the reason

Starting point is 01:17:35 that happened is because we've gotten into this place where nobody fucking understands how the economy works at all in a way that's even worse than it was even in like the 2010s. Like in the 2010s, I think people sort of had a vague understanding that the thing that was happening to the economy was Uberization, whatever you call it was the expansion of gig work, right? There was sort of an understanding and a focus on the very sort of low level parts of the economy, like what what are you a poor person doing for your

Starting point is 01:17:59 job, right? How does how does your income work and and not purely on the sort of like, high or in the case in the case of what's been happening here, everyone has been unbelievably completely focused on like the chips act and like state led industrialization and all that stuff is fucking bullshit. It's it's it basically hasn't done anything yet. It's not going to do anything for like a decade. And it's not mostly what's going on in the economy. I've been holding my tongue on this for years. But the people who have been writing about the economy don't understand how the fuck it works. Because they've been completely myopically obsessed with the idea that we're in this new era of state capitalism. And no, like the actual thing that's been happening in the economy. And I think if you are like a person who buys stuff, you probably understand

Starting point is 01:18:45 this but for some reason this has never made it to like economists or like people who fucking read about the economy for a living is consumer to manufacturer sales. So this is stuff like Temu this is stuff like Shien who Shien I mean invented it's a strong word but they're one of the first people who sort of popularized this model right. And this is a thing where you have a platform that lets people like nominally buy directly from the factories or from, you know, the people who are producing fruit, right? And these factories aren't producing goods until basically either people order the goods or like analytics tells them to

Starting point is 01:19:20 order it. So they don't have a lot of the problems that other kind of like distribution bottles have you have a bunch of good sitting in a warehouse you just like you just don't have that because you don't start production and tell your sort of orders come in your analytics come in and the theory here is you can reduce costs by eliminating the middleman but of course a new kind of middleman emerged and that is the drop shipper. God so the drop shipper is just someone using the consumer to manufacturer pipeline, right? The platforms that are supposed to let you, the consumer, sort of just like buy directly from the thing and cut out middlemen. It's just someone doing that, but then turning around and selling you the result. And this has become just utterly fucking ubiquitous in the American economy. It's sort of like an integral part of the American scam economy

Starting point is 01:20:04 now too. As the American economy has It's sort of like an integral part of the American scam economy now, too, as the American economy has been increasingly sort of riddled and consumed by scams and riddled and consumed by sort of like people trying to capitalize on like some fucking meme or some political thing. You know, you have all these people doing like dropship t-shirts, right?

Starting point is 01:20:18 They can immediately come in and sell all of this stuff. These like short-lived like trend meme-based either like fashion or even like goods You know, we can talk about like even of like a content creator merch that is all funneled through these like drop shipping companies Yeah And it's also what's been it's a thing that's enabled like fast fashion to function in the way that it is right now, right? Absolutely. And this is become what consumption is in large swaths of the world is from from this sort of like direct-to-consumer dropshipping shit, right?

Starting point is 01:20:49 Yeah. Now the thing about these dropshipping things is that their profit margins are really, really low. They don't make that much money. And in fact, a lot of these things like hemorrhage money until they've basically, you know, they do the thing that Amazon did, right? Where like you lose money for a million years, but then eventually you have enough market share that you start making money again. Yeah, because you make it so all your competitors basically can't function because you have prices that are so low.

Starting point is 01:21:09 And then when you're the only one in the game with a sizeable power influence, you can raise prices and then you make tons of money. Also, the Uber model, although Uber still isn't profitable. Yeah, well, so Uber will never make any money. Right. But the other thing here that's important is that, you know, so the margins of a company like Temu, right? Which is like probably the biggest of these sort of companies now are low But Temu technically has tech money like they have money to back them up, right? You know who doesn't have an unbelievable amount of just like capital sitting around they could just instantly pull from if suddenly there is I don't Know a 60% fucking price shock. Oh wait, it's all of the fucking manufacturing, you know, tiny manufacturing firms that these

Starting point is 01:21:49 dropshipping things use to produce all their stuff. Right? That infrastructure is very fragile. It's, it's margins are very bad. And oh, guess what happens to that shit if you impose 60% tariffs on it, right? It just shuts down because that's the easiest option, right? Yeah. And you know, and presumably presumably I think one of the other parts of this would be part of part of the reason this has been Happening is that all of the stuff isn't being imported like under tariff loopholes, but like that loopholes not hard to close Right. What tariff loopholes are you like referring to? Oh, yeah, so I talked about this the ten-week episode There's loopholes on American tariffs were like if you're if you're bringing stuff into the country that's below a certain value, it has to be above like

Starting point is 01:22:29 six hundred dollars, something to like trigger a threshold to like activate the tariffs applying to it. So people just ship a bunch of like one billion boxes individually that are like five hundred and ninety nine dollars to go under the thing. So you're saying I can still maybe buy my new Sonic the Hedgehog PS5 game, though. That should be fine. I'll be totally good. Oh, God. OK, so the other part of this, that's important, right? So this is the kind of I don't know if new is the right word,

Starting point is 01:22:58 but this is the kind of recent part of the economy that's incredibly dependent on Chinese supply chains, right? That gets just liquefied if these tariffs go through. These are enormous companies that, you know, are going to just eat shit. And those companies eating shit have the sort of effects we talked about earlier, right? Which is it causes people to get fired, it causes growth collapses, it causes cyclical decreases in people's ability to buy things and then also like demand decreases because people can't buy things.

Starting point is 01:23:25 But this is like the new school supply chain stuff, right? Temu is a product of really the last six or seven years, and it really only functions the way it does now in the last about four. But the previous two eras of supply chain logistics, right, which is sort of Walmart and Amazon, are both also almost completely dependent on Chinese supply chains, right? Yeah. There's a good JD Supra article, which is a they're like a business intelligence website, right? You know, it talks about how Walmart imports 70% of all of its goods from China. Yeah, that tracks 70% 70. Right. And the reason that it works like this is because Walmart's entire business model, all of their supply chains, all of their logistics, everything that they do, right, was designed basically hand in

Starting point is 01:24:08 hand to be integrated into Chinese economic production. And you can't just move that shit instantly, right? And this is also true of something like Amazon, right? Where Amazon, like 63% of independent sellers on Amazon, this is from the same source, are Chinese, right? So what you're dealing with is vast parts of the American economy, right? The parts of the American economy that you interface to buy things are based on goods that are suddenly gonna have like 60 to 100%

Starting point is 01:24:36 tariffs stapled onto them. Now, the thing that people have been talking about as the like, oh, well, here's the thing that will happen instead of like, instead of the thing that's pretty obviously going to happen if this stuff happens, which is just the deck out bubble in pops and everything starts to go to shit. People have been like, oh, well, this will just accelerate the shift of production of goods out from China. And like, I've been talking about this for like a fucking decade, right? Like the journal Chuang, something that I talk about a lot that I reckon people read is talking

Starting point is 01:25:06 about this for literally ages and ages and ages. So people have been trying to move production out of China for ages. I mean, like one of the first big attempts to do this was in 2011, when there is there's a series of riots in China, and people tried to move production of goods out of China, and they couldn't do it. And the reason that they couldn't do it was because you have to find a country that has both like a relatively skilled and educated labor force and also has the infrastructure to be able to like match Chinese production. And so we're talking about things like they have to have like a functioning electrical grid that is

Starting point is 01:25:40 stable enough for production to function. And this rules out an enormous number of countries. And it's just really, really hard. And yeah, like Chinese capital hasn't moving away from its sort of old centers in the delta two places like Vietnam, right? But, and this is the fucking big one, right? A lot of what's been happening for,

Starting point is 01:25:58 people have been talking about this thing called quote unquote decoupling, which is the separation of the US and Chinese economy so that they're not like, they're trying with each other. People think this is good for ideological reasons, or they think it's just something that's happening and it's not it's not happening. You know what else isn't happening? It's us not plugging these products and services. I think we do legally have to plug them. So here they are. Here's the plugs for the products and services. All right, now that you've decoupled yourself from your money to buy these products and services, let's talk a bit more about why decoupling is fucking bullshit.

Starting point is 01:26:38 One, and I've been doing something I've been saying on the show for years. Like people have this sort of fantasy that what's happening is that, okay, instead of making your thing in China, you make your thing somewhere else. And this means that American companies no longer have the supply chains running through China. That's not what's happening at all. On the financial front, what you have is actually increasing integration as China attempts to sort of like, you know, has been lifting restrictions on the ownership of different types of corporations to make it easier for foreign owners to actually come in and invest cat and put capital in China. Right. The second thing that's happening is a lot of these supposedly like we're cutting China out of the supply chain things have been a bunch of Chinese

Starting point is 01:27:14 companies start starting to set up production in Mexico. Now, the thing about that, right, if Mexico was supposed to be the fucking panacea for getting us out of these tariffs, remember that Trump was talking about 200% tariffs on Mexico and that's the country that's supposed to like fucking get us out of this mess by like oh I'll be fine cuz like production will just shift away from China to like to where like I mean a lot of the a lot of the assumptions I was reading was like people were talking about oh the production will like 25% of production will like shift to Canada It's like no it won't which just can't have the fucking production facilities to do There's like what are you talking about? Like Canada doesn't have the population

Starting point is 01:27:48 Do that? No, it doesn't and this is this sort of problem, right? You know on the one hand, you know China has been de-industrializing for like a decade and a half now, right? And kind of slowly but the percentage of the population that's working in manufacturing has been steadily decreasing for years and years and years and years that's working in manufacturing has been steadily decreasing for years and years and years and years, but the problem is that When you move production out of a place you actually have to have a second place to produce it And they're just haven't been right like you it's pretty easy to move low-end manufacturing This is what's been happening right like really cheap garment stuff for example has been has been moving to places like Bangladesh and Vietnam for a While but once you start getting into the stuff that China produces like the most of right which is things like fucking cell phones Sort of mid-tier commodity production that gets way way way way way harder

Starting point is 01:28:32 No, but the Chips Act will save us Mia. I I heard it from everyone on the television I just got this is the sort of thing about this right is if you look if you read the Analyses that people are doing of this they just sort of assume that you can just like oh well like naturally, a bunch of the consumption that Americans are doing will stay the same because they'll go buy goods that aren't produced in China. It's like, okay, like where are you finding these goods from? Like what production facilities are you just like suddenly that have just been like sitting there fallow or just suddenly going to like appear out of nowhere?

Starting point is 01:29:03 And the answer is like, that's not going to happen. And it's not it's not going to happen partially because they don't exist and partially because, again, the immediate consequence of this is a massive economic collapse. China's economy has already been slowing for the like, basically, I mean, it's been slowing since like, 2008. Really? Well, I see as an 11 kind of, but it's especially been slowing in the past two or three years because of suracova restriction stuff and Also, just a kind of lackluster rate of returns on their own Like they had their own version of the 2008 housing bubble And that's annihilated an unbelievable amount of money because it turns out investing in real estate doesn't work As is basis for economy, but like that's the right? If the Chinese economy fucking goes down, right? That's like, that's 17% of the world's GDP. 17. Yeah, of the total GDP, right?

Starting point is 01:29:50 And it's like, the economy isn't national in a way where you can have an economic collapse in another country and just, and just a country that's that large and ignore it. And the thing I want to close on is the reason we know that this is true is that it is actually possible kind of to restart American domestic manufacturing, right? Reagan was able to do it in the 80s and Reagan did it through this thing called the Plaza Accords, where he basically he didn't literally put the prime ministers of Japan and West Germany at gunpoint, but he basically

Starting point is 01:30:21 put them at gunpoint and forced them to increase the value of their currencies so that the US currency would devalue, which would make, which makes it like a more competitive export economy. And this actually brought back American manufacturing for a while until it had to all be reversed under the Clinton administration and the reverse Plaza Accords because the problem was when you sort of nuked the zero sum manufacturing of a country like Japan, their fucking economy didn't work anymore. And in order to sort of bail out the Japanese economy and stop just a sort of world running economic collapse, it would have just like, tore the absolute shit out of the economy, the US had to fucking re increase the value of its currency and lose its whole domestic production

Starting point is 01:30:57 base, right? You can't actually increase a production base in the world right now without decreasing it somewhere else. And that has sort of staggering ripple economic effects for the entire global economy. Which is why, even if Trump's plan worked somehow and didn't immediately cause an economic collapse by the direct effect of American consumers, it would cause another economic collapse by the effect on fucking people in China. So... Well, Mia, I think you might be overreacting here a little bit because at least food will be available.

Starting point is 01:31:29 Obviously, I and I learned this on X, my main source for news is that agriculture almost all done in the States. So we should be fine. Like we'll still be able to eat food. Right? I say staring to the void. No, you can't because unfortunately, the thing about American agriculture is it's all fucking mechanized agriculture The thing about mechanized agriculture is that you need the mechanized part and that's all fucking produced either in other countries or

Starting point is 01:31:56 the John Deere fucking like Tractor factories in the US are all unbelievably reliant on a bunch of parts that are made overseas are all unbelievably reliant on a bunch of parts that are made overseas. So... Also, we do import a great deal of food. Oh, we do! Yeah, even just talking about the food that we produce here, right? That's also going to be fun. I wonder where your strawberries in November are coming from.

Starting point is 01:32:20 Oh, God. Curious? Yeah, yeah. I think the other thing to keep in mind here is that this is only one aspect of how Trump will impact the economy. Obviously, his immigration policies could serve a similarly large financial problem if a whole bunch of agricultural jobs suddenly kind of vanish and farms and other processing plants just go out of business due to a lack in workers.

Starting point is 01:32:45 And even some people on Trump's team have started to acknowledge this. Mostly Elon Musk, who has openly said that Trump's term will involve some, quote, temporary hardship. So between tariffs and mass deportations, even people on his team know that this is going to damage the economy, especially in the short term, if not the forever term. Yeah. And yet he was still elected as the economically viable candidate. Yeah, and I think the last part we should say in this is that it's not that you can't

Starting point is 01:33:17 fucking obliterate a giant portion of the American economy and still come out extremely popular because you've crushed the American working class. That's what Reagan did, right? Like Reagan and the Volcker shocks did this enormous, I mean, just put a crater in the American economy in Reagan's first term. Like the skyrocketing unemployment, just like real, real sort of economic devastation. But the thing about the Volcker shock was that the way he blew up the days of a bunch of extremely wealthy and influential capitalists. So it's going to be a lot of money. And so it's going to be a lot of money.

Starting point is 01:33:51 And so it's going to be a lot of money. And so it's going to be a lot of money. And so it's going to be a lot of money. And so it's going to be a lot of money. And so it's going to be a lot of money. And so it's going to be a lot of money. And so it's going to be a lot of money. And so it's going to be a lot of money, that this is also going to just absolutely fuck up the days of a bunch of extremely wealthy and influential capitalists. So including, by the way, Elon Musk, whose Teslas are produced in China, like he has a gigafactory. He's a gigafactory in Xinjiang.

Starting point is 01:34:17 So we'll see if Trump actually is able to implement this stuff. I think he's able to on a policy level. It's just politically. Can he actually do these tariffs? Yeah, it's unclear. It's also unclear what exact numbers he's going to run with. A 10% tariff will still be bad, but it's nothing compared to 100% tariff. I think Trump, by and large, just says whatever comes into his head without thinking through the actual logistical ends of what he's saying. And I think most Trump supporters do not take him literally as a person. At least they don't take what he says necessarily literally all the time. They take him seriously, but perhaps not literally.

Starting point is 01:34:51 Yeah. So we'll have to see how this actually plays out. If it does play out in the ways that Trump has said that is going to play out, it is going to just unbelievably tank the economy in in ways that absolutely suck. So, yeah, that's that's happening here in the future. Maybe that's the name of the podcast, right? So stock up on your PS5 now before they get harder to buy. And it'll be fine. Yeah, they'll be they'll be nothing else bad

Starting point is 01:35:22 that happens to the economy as long as you have your PS5. Yeah, people always want fucking books at the end of episodes. So I'm just putting books at the end of episodes. This is my plugging Chuang ch uang will help will put it in the description. It's a bunch of stuff about Chinese economics Mostly it's a sort of economic history of a visually the socialist period and the transition to capitalism But it also has a bunch of very very good of visionally the socialist period and then the transition to capitalism. But it also has a bunch of very, very good stuff on trying to understand the Chinese economy.

Starting point is 01:35:47 And so if you want to be about 10 years ahead of like guys who write for the economists, if you read Chuang, you will end up being like 10 years ahead of those guys. So yeah, great stuff. Hey guys, I'm Kate Max. You might know me from my popular online series, The Running Interview Show, where I run with celebrities, athletes, entrepreneurs, and more. After those runs, the conversations keep going.

Starting point is 01:36:28 That's what my podcast, Post Run High, is all about. It's a chance to sit down with my guests and dive even deeper into their stories, their journeys, and the thoughts that arise once we've hit the pavement together. You know that rush of endorphins you feel after a great workout? Well, that's when the real magic happens. So if you love hearing real, inspiring stories from the people you know, follow, and admire, join me every week for Post Run High.

Starting point is 01:36:57 It's where we take the conversation beyond the run and get into the heart of it all. It's lighthearted, pretty crazy, and very fun. Listen to Post Run High on the iHeart Radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome, I'm Danny Thrill. Won't you join me at the fire and dare enter. Nocturnal, Tales from the Shadows,

Starting point is 01:37:24 presented by iHe Heart and Sonora. An anthology of modern-day horror stories inspired by the legends of Latin America. From ghastly encounters with shapeshifters, to bone-chilling brushes with supernatural creatures. No. Take a trip and experience the horrors that have haunted Latin America since the beginning of time. Listen to Nocturne, Tales from the Shadows, as part of my cultura podcast network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

Starting point is 01:38:14 On Thanksgiving Day, 1999, a five-year-old boy floated alone in the ocean. He had lost his mother trying to reach Florida from Cuba. He looked like a little angel. I mean, he looked so fresh. And his name, Elian Gonzalez, will make headlines everywhere. Elian Gonzalez.

Starting point is 01:38:33 Elian, Elian. Elian Gonzalez. Elian, Elian. Elian Gonzalez. At the heart of the story is a young boy and the question of who he belongs with. His father in Cuba. Mr. Gonzalez wanted to go home and he wanted to take his son with him.

Starting point is 01:38:48 Or his relatives in Miami. Imagine that your mother died trying to get you to freedom. At the heart of it all is still this painful family separation. Something that as a Cuban, I know all too well. Listen to Chess Piece, the Elian Gonzalez story, as part of the MyCultura podcast network, available on the iHeart radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Starting point is 01:39:16 Hi, I'm Ed Zitron, host of the Better Offline podcast, and we're kicking off our second season, digging into how Texelite has turned Silicon Valley into a playground for billionaires. From the chaotic world of generative AI to the destruction of Google search, better off-liners are unvarnished and at times unhinged look at the underbelly of tech from an industry veteran with nothing to lose. This season I'm going to be joined by everyone from Nobel-winning economists to leading journalists in the field and

Starting point is 01:39:42 I'll be digging into why the products you love keep getting worse and naming and shaming those responsible. Don't get me wrong, though. I love technology. I just hate the people in charge and want them to get back to building things that actually do things to help real people. I swear to God things can change if we're loud enough, so join me every week to understand what's happening in the tech industry and what could be done to make things better. Listen to Better Offline on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever else you get your podcasts. Check out betteroffline.com. Muhammad Ali, George Foreman, James Brown, BB King, Miriam Makeba.

Starting point is 01:40:19 I shook up the world. James Brown said, said love. And the kid said, I'm black and I'm proud. Black boxing stars and black music royalty together in the heart of Zaire, Africa. Three days of music and then the boxing event. What was going on in the world at the time made this fight as important as anything else is going on on the planet. My grandfather laid on the ropes and let George Foreman basically just punch himself out.

Starting point is 01:40:47 Welcome to Rumble, the story of a world in transformation. The 60s and prior to that, you couldn't call a person black. And how we arrived at this peak moment. I don't have to be what you want me to be. We all came from the continent of Africa. Listen to Rumble, Ali, Foreman, and the Soul of 74 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

Starting point is 01:41:16 All right. Welcome to It Could Happen Here. And what it is today is me James and Mia Wong. Hi Mia. Hello. Hi. What we're here to talk to you about today is something else which despite my positive tone of voice is sad and depressing. Yeah. Yeah, it's just a lot of that and like we don't want you to be too sad.

Starting point is 01:41:43 It doesn't bear moping around, you know, like we've got time to get organized and that's what we should be doing. And also like just get out and go outside and see your friends and do things that bring you joy. Like we'll work out how to get through it somehow. I think it's really easy and I found myself doing this stay at home and be sad, but don't like I went out with some friends for a hike on Friday. I feel so much better So I would advise you to do that. Maybe you're listening on your hike. That would be fun actually, I think if I was hiking I would I would skip this one and listen to the birds and

Starting point is 01:42:17 Well, I mean, you know if you want the ideological framing of it the ideological framing of it is that morale is a charade of struggle yes, and ideological framing of it. The ideological framing of it is that morale is a charade of struggle. Yes. And it is very easy to lose if your morale is absolutely terrible. So yeah, we got four years we can't be be moping around like like we will get through it. We will find ways to make it better. And part of the way we do that, yeah, it's keeping our morale up and doing things that bring us joy. The thing that brings me joy is talking about Rojava, the autonomous administration of North and East Syria. And we're going to talk about that today because we're talking about Donald

Starting point is 01:42:53 Trump's foreign policy in his second term. So his previous foreign policy was a pretty mixed bag. And he bombed the shit out of the Islamic State, right? Cool. Based. He also bombed the shit out of thousands of Syrian and Iraqi civilians. Not so cool. Also, we should note, not so different from every other president this century. Bombing civilians has been pretty much the through line of American foreign policy in that part of the world for a very long time. In particular, in the Trump administration, I want to talk about there was a single US strike cell called Tallon Anvil. I think they were mainly like CAG guys from what I read. So Delta Force guys, Army Special Forces guys, who were making these decisions. They hired an office building in Syria and these guys were constantly looking at

Starting point is 01:43:42 drone feeds and various other information and then calling in strikes on various targets, right? I'm not sure if they had the CAD guys in the, like, watching computers. I'm not entirely sure. And like, why they didn't have someone else, who knows? But this strike cell dropped more than 120,000 bombs. And Jesus Christ. Yeah, the amount of ordinance we dropped on Syria is insane. Its circumvented procedures are in place to prevent civilian deaths in order to do so. They had embedded lawyers who were supposed to approve the strikes, but these lawyers tried to raise the alarm that some of these strikes were reckless.

Starting point is 01:44:20 They weren't hitting things that were actual targets. And they sort of ran into an organizational brick wall. At some point, pilots even refused to engage targets because they didn't think it was. Yeah, which is it's not usual. Yeah, like, that's pretty fucked for a fighter pilot to be like, no, I don't think I've ever heard of that before. No. So I found this out in, I think it was the New York Times.

Starting point is 01:44:47 The New York Times, a pretty good investigation, which we linked in our sources. And yeah, it's like a throwaway line, but I would love to hear more about that. I don't, it could have been a drone pilot too, which is slightly different gig, I guess. You know, if you're sitting north of Las Vegas, they're flying a drone. Kind of a different scene. So in the battle to defeat the Islamic State, thousands of innocent people lost their lives. As we reach the end of that battle,

Starting point is 01:45:12 Donald Trump, who was president at the time, personally called Erdogan, who's the president of the circuit at the time, late 2018. Trump asked Erdogan, if we withdraw our soldiers, can you clean up ISIS? That's a quote. According to an unnamed Turkish official interviewed by Reuters, Erdogan

Starting point is 01:45:28 replied that Turkish forces were capable of a mission, quote, then you do it. Trump told him and asked his national security advisor, John Bolton, who was also on the call to quote, start work for the withdrawal of US troops from Syria. What this resulted in was US troops pulling out from some locations in Syria, right? Look at local people threw tomatoes at them. Even worse than the tomatoes was the fact that it gave NATO's second largest army,

Starting point is 01:45:55 which is Turkey, of course, free reign to attack the autonomous administration in North and East Syria, which it did in 2018 and it did again in 2019. Those two operations acclaimed considerable ground in Syria, cost countless civilian lives, continued to perpetrate human rights abuses, to rehabilitate people from ISIS and other jihadi groups, as Turkish Free Syrian Army, and they killed some people who were people I care about.

Starting point is 01:46:21 And I continue to care about the cause of Rojava or autonomous administration in North East Syria very deeply and it really fucking sucks to think about the potential of the US Abandoning those people again, not the Biden has done very much. Yeah Now I think this anecdote right of what Trump does with her one tells us a lot about his approach to foreign policy Which is he really sees it as very transactional, which isn't that different from everything else he does, I guess. Like he's a very transactional person and he seems really only to be concerned about what he can get out of it. So like in this case, I guess he wants to say he bought US troops home from Syria, like

Starting point is 01:47:00 he's anti-war. This is one of his things he says now, right? Like, but he, he's, he's prepared to also in the case of the bombing, right? He's not so concerned with civilian casualties as long as he can claim that he'd, he was the one who defeated ISIS, right? Obama couldn't do it. He did it. And he did it on a pile of civilian remains and also using chiefly the Syrian democratic forces, right?

Starting point is 01:47:24 Not us forces. Yeah. There were US forces on the ground. They were engaged in combat, but in minuscule numbers compared to SDF, who lost 15,000 of their children in a battle against ISIS. And I think Trump would be very willing to admit that he's transactional, right? Like that's kind of his brand is like America first and then fuck everyone else. So I think he'll probably be similar in this term, right?

Starting point is 01:47:49 He will act unilaterally. He'll pivot whenever the fuck he feels like it. He will continue with his affection for strong men and dictators all around the world. But a lot of stuff has changed since Trump's first term. And I think it's illustrative for us to think about how he will engage with things that have changed. So what has changed? There's a much larger conflict between Russia and Ukraine now and that conflict has been seen massive and overt support both from the USA and from the rest of NATO. There's been a revolution in Myanmar. I suppose he doesn't know that.

Starting point is 01:48:21 Yeah, I really doubt. Well, maybe some of the like weird pro-Kuh memeing from the right got to him. Yeah, perhaps. Or like, I mean, the parallels between the Kuh in Myanmar and January 6th are pretty obvious, right? Like, if January 6th took the landing, it looked a lot like that, except that it was a military party,

Starting point is 01:48:41 not just a political party. The Islamic State doesn't exist as a territorial entity, but it very much does exist as a terrorist group which continues to and has actually increased its activity this month with sleeper cells, continued suicide bombings, continued attacks, and the SDF continue with their anti-ISIS operations. Without US support, those would be harder. And so we have to ask, I guess, on what Trump's going to do with these things. And I want to look at a few different issues and pick apart what Trump said on his campaign website, pick apart what he said on the campaign trail, and then look

Starting point is 01:49:18 at who he's appointed so far. We're recording this on Tuesday the 12th, so if someone gets appointed before you hear this, why we've missed them out. So I guess to start with Trump's foreign policy, we should talk about his number one like peer competitor, which is China in his eyes, right? Not a big China appreciator. So I looked at his campaign website for this, which really has some just incredible use of capital letters. He just fucking does what he wants. It's wild to see. So chiefly, one of the things that he's been on about for a while now is tariffs on Chinese made goods, right?

Starting point is 01:49:52 It's as means of foreign policy. Yeah. We just, we talked about this last episode. Yeah. You will have heard about tariffs at this point. Yeah. So as we previously mentioned, right, he's talked about these tariffs. These tariffs would cost a lot of money and they would increase the cost of you going shopping.

Starting point is 01:50:08 Yeah, and they would probably destroy vast swaths of the global economy. Yes. Both the Chinese and the American economy. Yes. Just sort of implode. And then all these countries in Africa and, you know, Myanmar, for instance, exports a lot of these rare earth metals to China, right, And a lot of countries in Africa do too. Aside from the economic sort of aggression, his stance on Taiwan is weird, which is normally

Starting point is 01:50:32 where we would like expect to see the most like physical friction between US and China, right? Mike Pompeo has pressed for the USA to formally recognize Taiwan before, which would be a step that, you know, there'd be a pretty big swing. Trump, on the other hand, seems to want Taiwan to pay the United States for being its ally right now. Yeah, then this is like one of his big sort of foreign policy principles is like, try to get people to pay him for stuff, because that's sort of the only way his brain works. But I remember he's done this with NATO a lot, where he's hit this whole line on NATO, that like NATO should be like paying us because people like you're not spending

Starting point is 01:51:11 enough on defense, so we're like paying all their defense budgets. This is like one of his kind of. Yeah, it's been his like hobby horse. Yeah, like floats around in his brain sort of colliding with its walls. Yeah. An empty space there. Yeah, yeah, like a ping pong ball. lighting with its walls.

Starting point is 01:51:22 Yeah. An empty space there. Yeah. Yeah. Like a ping pong ball. Ironically, like in the time that Trump's been out of office, Russian aggression has led NATO members to spend more on defense rather than Donald Trump lambasting them. So one of his big things is that Taiwan should pay the United States, but it

Starting point is 01:51:40 would seem very unlikely that he, he's not going to abandon Taiwan, I think, because it gives him a place to grandstand on China. Yeah, and also, like, you know, I mean, one of the things about Trump is that one of the best ways to sort of influence him is just get a world leader in a room with him alone. Yes. But unfortunately, well, fortunately for us, Trump does not speak Chinese, and Xi Jinping doesn't seem to like him very much. So yeah, yes, we won't be joining the PRC anytime soon.

Starting point is 01:52:10 China, along with Russia, right, the two countries we've spoken about most so far, both make big plays in Africa. Russia has rebranded what was Wagner as the Africa Corps and they're sort of providing support to regimes that lack enough legitimacy to exist otherwise. Yeah. They are like sort of classic mercenary shit. Like, is your state illegitimate and does it lack the capacity to do the violence it needs to maintain itself?

Starting point is 01:52:36 Don't worry. Here are some, here are some psychopaths from Russia. Yeah. And there's just a lot of people, I think, because like a lot of these sort of governments will kind of like do their like put a red beret on and start doing their anti-imperialist cosplay and then you like read the like the fine print of the contracts they've signed with like Africa core a thing that like you expect to be spelled like Africa and core with a K like scale our PS like And it's like oh okay so like they've

Starting point is 01:53:06 signed away a bunch of the country's mineral rights and like they've signed away a bunch of these specific mines to these the this mercenary groups it's like oh okay so this is like also this is also just imperialism it's just new management yeah exactly yeah it's just different imperialism and then China has big plays in Africa to write like I've personally seen a lot of Chinese owned mines in Africa, Chinese roads in Africa. China does also like offer infrastructure. China does a kind of quid pro quo.

Starting point is 01:53:33 It doesn't come in like with the violence like Russia does. It comes in with the, we'll build you a hospital if we can have all your natural resources. US policy in Africa is pretty much to stop those two countries getting too much influence. The Biden administration is as many liberals are, right? Like there's actually not that much difference between what Biden and Trump will do in Africa. The difference is that Biden is smart enough not to say it. Trump's ability to do anything useful in Africa is going to be masked by his massive racism. Like when he says things like shithole countries, it becomes a lot harder for

Starting point is 01:54:05 the US to do anything in Africa that isn't tinged by that, right? Like it doesn't make that sort of imperialist ambition more obvious. US politicians rarely talk about Africa. They rarely campaign on what they were going to do in Africa. And so pretty much the only things we're going to hear from Donald Trump about Africa, I would imagine, are going to be when he lets his racism out. Yeah. That will have results for like US credibility. Also, my guess is we see intensifications of sort of US drone strikes, particularly in the Horn, and we see like, like all of the stuff that Biden is doing, but worse and killing even more people somehow. Yeah, I would imagine that we will see these more aggressive drone strikes,

Starting point is 01:54:46 especially against Islamist groups in Africa. The US has special forces deployments in a few places in Africa, which we'll probably maintain, I would imagine. I don't think those are things that Trump would, he wouldn't see any benefit from stopping them, I guess. And it may not even know about them. So yeah, I think we will see little change in Africa, would, I guess. And it may not even know about them. So yeah, I think we will see

Starting point is 01:55:06 little change in Africa, would be my guess. Yeah, mildly worse. I talk of mildly worse, Mia. The thing that makes these podcasts mildly worse is our obligation to pivot to advertisements, which we must do now. That was a great one. We've been holding out on you for three years to get you the good ad pivots. Yeah. Well, there it is. That's what we've got for you. All right, we're back. So I want to talk about Europe. As you've heard in the tariffs episode, he wants to put tariffs on European goods. The European Union is going to slap tariffs right back on American goods. That doesn't really help anyone.

Starting point is 01:55:52 It will make exporting from the USA very, very hard. One thing that the USA might stop exporting is weapons to Ukraine. It's a little unclear. Trump, he called Zelensky the greatest salesman on earth, but has also claimed that he can personally end the war in 24 hours. I don't think that means he will be deploying himself to the Donbass like a, like a, like a gun dam, but he, he claims he can do this with his negotiating skills. This seems unlikely to put it mildly.

Starting point is 01:56:21 I don't think that it would be possible to end this war in 24 hours. If both sides declared peace right now, getting communications to their frontline troops would be a challenge in 24 hours in some places. So the way I interpret this, and I may be wrong here, is that he is likely to leverage the support that the United States gives to Ukraine in order to force Zelensky into an unfavorable settlement. Which would achieve his goal of A, being able to say he stopped giving American money to Ukraine, which has been a big talking point for the... like every time you start with the Western North Carolina right after the hurricane, all these Republican sort of talking points are like, oh well all the money's in Ukraine, so we can't have

Starting point is 01:57:03 these Republican sort of talking points were like, oh, well, all the money's in Ukraine. So we can't have fucking MREs for people in Western North Carolina. Like FEMA has no money because we sent Ukraine some M4s. This is very silly, right? This is not a zero sum game. It's not really a reasonable critique. But it's one that Trump has kind of managed to stick in the culture wars. His base seems to see the money going to Ukraine is directly coming from things that would otherwise be going to them, which he would benefit from if he could

Starting point is 01:57:31 bring this war to a close. Right. JD Vance has mentioned a demilitarized zone in between Russia and Ukraine, which, yeah, he's going to, he's going to minister to the DMZ? Like... Yeah. Like, do we really want this? Are we gonna have troops there like we do in South Korea for, you know, when was the Korean War? The 1950s, 70 years. Right?

Starting point is 01:57:54 I don't think that's really what they want. Yeah, the thing about DMZs is no one actually likes them. No, they suck. It sucks. Yeah, they're awful. It's just a bit of land that you can yeet weapons over each other, like especially in modern warfare, they're not that effective at stopping two people fighting, right? But very funny that North Korea will be two for two on DMZs in wars it has been involved

Starting point is 01:58:15 with. It's huge dub for them. He essentially seems to be advocating for exactly the peace settlement that Putin has proposed and that has been rejected multiple times. Several sources I've seen suggest that Trump has spoken to Putin quite a few times since leaving office. His plan for Ukraine certainly seems closer to the Russian one than the Ukrainian one, the Ukrainian one being stop invading us and go home and the Russian one being, well, we'll just keep all the stuff we've taken so far and then add a buffer zone in between and Ukraine can keep

Starting point is 01:58:51 whatever's left of its country, right? What's interesting to me is what other NATO members will do in the event of the US reducing its aid. I would suspect that they will try and step up and meet that gap. It might also result in the US puts certain restrictions on its aid, right? How it can be used, where it can be used crucially, right? They don't like Ukraine using things to attack in Russia proper. They don't mind them using them to attack Russian forces, but not within Russia. I did see a picture yesterday of a, I think it was three guys from Rogue, I think it's called, which is a unit within the International Legion who had been killed within Russia and they had a lot of like 84s and things like that, right, like

Starting point is 01:59:36 US anti-tank weapons. But the United States doesn't want Ukrainians in the long range artillery and stuff. It's given it to yeet projectiles at Moscow. I can see a situation where if the US draws down some of its aid, European allies of Ukraine might not place some of those restrictions on their aid. And that could lead to some interesting complications for Russia, right? If Ukraine is more effective, like if they get more aid from Europe and Europe doesn't place restrictions on their aid, they could potentially strike Russia

Starting point is 02:00:06 within Russia, which is not gonna be good for Putin. It's probably not gonna be good for like bringing, I mean, unless they can deal some really crippling blows, it might not be good for bringing the war to an end. But maybe it will. Maybe like they've done some pretty effective things with not a huge amount so far. I don't know. Maybe they'll get lucky on a strike on the Kremlin or something. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Just the one like, I mean, yeah, I'm sure that would be their strategy if they didn't have restrictions, would be to just keep pounding places they think Putin might be. This is the history of Russian warfare.

Starting point is 02:00:39 Dumber things that have happened and have lost Russia wars. So yeah, yeah, a lot dumber than that. So yeah, I don't think that Ukraine will be screwed if the US pulls out. I do think it will be a lot harder for them. Yeah. And you know, if that's something there are a lot of US citizens still fighting in Ukraine would be pretty devastating to abandon Ukraine. And I think also just from the sort of stopping Russian aggression standpoint,

Starting point is 02:01:04 it's much better to stop it here than somewhere else. And I think also just from the sort of stopping Russian aggression standpoint, it's much better to stop it here than somewhere else. But yeah, we will see, I guess, European countries are really ramping up their defense, but right now the US is like the heart of the military industrial complex and Europe really can't keep up with the US production. Of course, the US being the heart of the military industrial complex does mean that a lot of Trump donors will probably be able to leverage some of their donations to his campaign and so we might not see as much of a drawdown of aid to Ukraine as we're

Starting point is 02:01:33 worrying about here. Me, talking of launching things from a long distance at a very small target, I would like to launch these advertisements from iHeartMedia's advertising department directly to your ears Higa It's all so bad Mm-hmm as we were recording this it's come out That the new Secretary of Defense is going to be Pete Hegseth who's like a Fox News guy who doesn't believe germs are real. Yeah, this is a guy who has not washed his hands in 10 years. Uh, great.

Starting point is 02:02:12 I mean, at least he might die of COVID. Yeah, I was going to say, he made it. Wow. Sorry, that hair is really something. Oh, that's not good at all. Yeah. Oh, that's not good at all. Yeah Wait what? One June 14th 2015 hang seth accidentally hit a westward jar with an ax

Starting point is 02:02:38 He was incredible Link pulled up All right, this video is unavailable. Alright, no, we're finding this video that nothing disappears from the internet. Alright, here we go This is just clown shit, like... Like, I need to write, listen... If you were hit in the dick and balls by an axe thrown by future Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, please contact Callzone Media, iHeartMedia.com Contact CoolZoneMedia at myheartmedia.com You got it!

Starting point is 02:03:25 Holy shit! I hope the VA is paying for this man's benefits. This is the stupidest thing I've ever seen someone do in the course of reporting for this show. Yeah, yeah. It's amazing. Very funny. Again, please contact us. I hope you're OK. Service-related injury. Yeah, so that's Pete Hegseth, right?

Starting point is 02:03:52 Future SecDev, also former reservist who deployed to Guantanamo, was an infantry platoon leader at Guantanamo. I think he also deployed to Afghanistan in 2012. And previously, he'd also deployed to Iraq. He had two voluntary deployments, so he's in two Afghanistan in 2012 and previously he'd also deployed to Iraq. He had two voluntary deployments, so he's in two locations in Iraq at least. So he's hit the greatest hits of US foreign policy in the last 20 years, I guess.

Starting point is 02:04:15 He's made his career as a Fox News pundit. Yeah, he's just like a right-wing ghoul. Yeah, I mean, in the last Trump administration when he was pondering he advised Trump had been considering pardoning several war criminals and did pardon several war criminals, right? And Hicks s was one of the people who a he talked about on Fox News while he was advising Trump to do it and B He was advising Trump to do it. Jesus Christ. Yeah, you can read up about the Trump ponds war criminals It's bad enough that a guy was getting turned in by his own special forces unit. Like do you know how bad, how like fucking hideous the shit you have to do is for like your own guys in a special forces unit to be like, holy shit, we have to stop this guy.

Starting point is 02:04:58 Like it's awful. Yeah. I mean, you should look up Clint Lawrence's stuff as well. Like, uh, LOI and see if you're interested in this stuff. Yeah, I mean you should look up Clint Lawrence's stuff as well like yeah L-O-R-A-N-C if you're interested in this stuff. He was convicted I think of two murder counts for ordering his soldiers to fire on unarmed people and then Yeah, the other one was a green beret named Matt Golstian who was also charged with the murder of someone in Afghanistan Someone who had been making IEDs. So like, I think we can see where this guy is going. We've just found this out as we're recording for context. Like that's quite

Starting point is 02:05:30 troubling. Yeah. His other two foreign policy appointments that I've seen so far have been less so. Look, I'm saying less so. Marco Rubio is a turd, right? Like, I think we all know that we, I share very little with Marco Rubio. On Turkey and Rojava, he is good. He is a turd, right? I think we all know that I share very little with Marco Rubio. On Turkey and Rojava, he is good. He is not a fan of Erdogan. He's in contact with Gulenists. He kind of puts Turkey in the Brits box. He's a Gulenist?

Starting point is 02:05:58 Yeah, which leads us to the very funny idea of Marco Rubio ordering a drone strike on Eric Adams. I mean, well, here's the thing though, Gulen's dead now. So, like, there's like a secession crisis of like who's gonna head up Gulen's network. And I'm proposing it's Marco Rubio. The Gulenist anti-pope, Marco Rubio. Yeah. That could be very good for Rojava at least, right?

Starting point is 02:06:21 The big concern among those of us who care very deeply about Rojava has been that Trump will abandon them as he did in the past, right? And so I guess we're looking for glimmers of hope. And I think Rubio kind of oddly, weirdly was one compared to, I was expecting more of the hegg-thirst, like Fox News commentator type people in foreign policy positions. Because Trump fundamentally doesn't care about foreign policy and like it's an area where he can kind of give something to those kinds of like insane far-right commentator types. He also did appoint Mark Walz, I think it could be Walz. He's one of the first special army special forces guys serving Congress, maybe the first as a national security advisor was as a member of the

Starting point is 02:07:07 Kurdish caucus in Congress. So again, positive for a Java. Talking of army special forces, there's one more insane Trump foreign policy proposal that I want to discuss, and that is his desire to use the United States army in Mexico. I'm just going to read from his campaign website here. President Trump will take down the drug cartels just as he took down ISIS. He will impose a total naval embargo on cartels, order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations, and designate cartels as foreign terrorist

Starting point is 02:07:43 organizations and choke off their access to the global financial system. President Trump will get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign. He will ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the death penalty." There's a lot there. The way that Donald Trump helped defeat ISIS was exclusively by bombing things and with some small contributions from US ground troops. But we don't really have a partner force in Mexico like that. And I think especially with the new administration in Mexico and especially with Trump proposing 100% tariffs on Mexican goods,

Starting point is 02:08:29 100% tariffs on Mexican goods, we're unlikely to find one, which leaves the very strange kind of prospect of US troops carrying out like unapproved, undeconflicted hits on Mexican nationals in Mexico, which like is an act of war. You are invading Mexico is what you're doing. I should point out that Bortach under Biden did shoot one Mexican national this year who was holding up migrants with a gun. He was rubbing them with a gun. It wasn't into place where I've been dozens of times where they shot him. And there didn't seem to be much fuffle about that, but that is not invading Mexico. Yeah, like if they're invading Mexico, as, you know, as as close as American Mexican sort of security cooperation has been and as many people as that's killed from the Mexican side, like that's oh boy. Yeah, like it remains to be seen how much

Starting point is 02:09:16 of this actually happens, right? Mexico has a new president, the United States has a new president. They're not exactly politically fellow travelers, I'll say that. But yeah, I mean, I will say like, Omlo and Trump got along like decently well, largely off of Omlo's like anti-immigrant policies, but I don't know if that's going to work with Scheinbaum. Like, and like in the final year of Omlo, like they definitely, they did a lot to help Biden with it, basically effectively enforcing US border policy by deporting people south people I spoke to in the Darien series have been sent south again this week. But Biden's had actually some pretty high profile cartel arrests within Sinaloa cartel. He's destabilized that cartel, but those happen within the US. They didn't send teams into Mexico.

Starting point is 02:10:00 And the way that the US has traditionally got hold of cartel leaders before is for them to be arrested in Mexico in cooperation with Mexican government forces, be they police or military, and then extradited them to the US for trial. That doesn't seem to be what Trump is proposing, but again, like the bombastic rhetoric and the reality are sometimes very different. Yeah, I have some vague memory that he like last time he wanted to like send special forces guys to do this and his advisors Were like what the fuck are you talking about? We can't send. Yeah people in New Mexico Yeah, look just to be real those organizations have reached inside the United States and that would be an extremely messy situation Yeah, and like the way this would have to be done, right?

Starting point is 02:10:45 Like, I don't think you can do this with drone strikes. You have to do this with boots on the ground. That's going to be contrary to what he's promised to do, which is not risk more US soldiers' lives. Who knows what this will actually look like. Yeah. My guess is he will find a way to get the maximum number of civilians killed. Yes.

Starting point is 02:11:01 Yeah. Yeah. He could do it himself. Yeah. Like, that's probably going to be the result of this. Yeah. Yeah. He would himself. Yeah. Like it's that's probably the result of this. Yeah, exactly. And I think as we sort of wind this down, like civilian deaths are probably going to

Starting point is 02:11:11 increase, right? He's never shown himself to be unduly concerned about those things. He doesn't see that the problem. The second thing the US will lose is what Joseph Nye called soft power, right? Which is like the power to influence people without projecting force, cultural power, right? Which is like the power to influence people without projecting force, cultural power, cultural capitals, you might've called it, really getting heavy on the university shit at the back half of this episode. The US lost a lot of that in the first Trump term, right? And it will lose more of it in the second Trump term. Some

Starting point is 02:11:40 of that is, you know, the US maybe shouldn't be influencing and the US has had some pretty malign influence around the world. You can listen to a song called Washington Bullets to learn more about it, but it will mean that like there will be a space for other bad actors, right? Russia, China, you know, Russia has not shown itself to be any more concerned with human rights and probably less so than the United States went in its time in Syria, right. It's been an unmitigated disaster for the Syrian people that rush in cooperation with the Assad regime. We do not need more of that around the world. The Wagner-Slojja Africa Corps deployments in Africa have been horrific in terms of human rights and this will open more

Starting point is 02:12:21 spaces for that. So yeah, I mean, it doesn't look great. This second F appointment, maybe we'll learn more about that in the coming days, but that doesn't look great. There are some bright spots for a Shava, I guess, or some glimmers of hope there, which is a nice thing. Trump's policy on Gaza fits with this general model of like, he wants to end conflicts and the way he sees of doing that is doing away with any restraint in terms of civilian casualties. And so the way that he went after ISIS was to just say bomb them all. I can see him doing the same thing in Gaza, right? Just saying like, he wants to claim that he bought an end to the war and he doesn't care how many bodies he's standing on when he says that. Yep.

Starting point is 02:13:05 Same thing in Lebanon, obviously. So yeah, these are not great things. These are things that we will have to deal with for decades to come, whatever happens. And I guess the way that you can do something here, like my little glimmer of hope, it's like you can reach out to people all around the world and let them know that like, even if America's foreign policy is shit, you're not. I have sat in Rojava and I have seen them taking the children to the hospitals and I've watched the US soldiers sit in their bases and do nothing and like, it didn't help really. I didn't, I wasn't able to do very much,

Starting point is 02:13:39 I couldn't even give blood, but I was able to be there with them and maybe that meant something and like, you can do little things to show your solidarity around the world because there won't be much of it coming from the government. Hey, guys, I'm Kate Max. You might know me from my popular online series, The Running Interview Show, where I run with celebrities, athletes, entrepreneurs, and more. After those runs, the conversations keep going. That's what my podcast, Post Run High, is all about. It's a chance to sit down with my guests and dive even deeper into their stories, their journeys, and the thoughts that arise once

Starting point is 02:14:32 we've hit the pavement together. You know that rush of endorphins you feel after a great workout? Well, that's when the real magic happens. So if you love hearing real inspiring stories from the people you know, follow, and admire, join me every week for Post Run High. It's where we take the conversation beyond the run and get into the heart of it all. It's lighthearted, pretty crazy, and very fun. Listen to Post Run High on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome. I'm Danny Trejo. Won't you join me at the fire and dare enter Nocturnal, Tales from the Shadows, presented by iHeart and Sonora, an anthology of modern-day horror stories inspired by the legends of Latin America.

Starting point is 02:15:29 From ghastly encounters with shapeshifters to bone-chilling brushes with supernatural creatures. I know you. Take a trip and experience the horrors that have haunted Latin America since the beginning of time. Listen to Nocturne Tales from the Shadows as part of MyCultura podcast network available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. On Thanksgiving Day 1999, a five-year-old boy floated alone in the ocean.

Starting point is 02:16:14 He had lost his mother trying to reach Florida from Cuba. He looked like a little angel. I mean, he looked so fresh. And his name, Elian Gonzalez, will make headlines everywhere. Elian Gonzalez. Elian, Elian. Elian Gonzalez. Elian. Elian.

Starting point is 02:16:29 Elian Gonzalez. At the heart of the story is a young boy and the question of who he belongs with. His father in Cuba. Mr. Gonzalez wanted to go home and he wanted to take his son with him. Or his relatives in Miami. Imagine that your mother died trying to get you to freedom.

Starting point is 02:16:48 At the heart of it all is still this painful family separation, something that as a Cuban, I know all too well. Listen to Chess Piece, the Elian Gonzalez story, as part of the MyCultura podcast network available on the iHeart radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, I'm Ed Zitron, host of the Better Offline podcast,

Starting point is 02:17:12 and we're kicking off our second season digging into how Tech's elite has turned Silicon Valley into a playground for billionaires. From the chaotic world of generative AI to the destruction of Google search, Better Offline is your unvarnished and at times unhinged look at the underbelly of tech from an industry veteran with nothing to lose. This season I'm going to be joined by everyone from Nobel-winning economists to leading journalists in the

Starting point is 02:17:35 field and I'll be digging into why the products you love keep getting worse and naming and shaming those responsible. Don't get me wrong though, I love technology. I just hate the people in charge and want them to get back to building things that actually do things to help real people. I swear to God things can change if we're loud enough. So join me every week to understand what's happening in the tech industry and what could be done to make things better. Listen to Better Offline on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, wherever else you get your podcasts. Check out betteroffline.com. favorite Latin celebrities, artists, and culture shifters, this is the podcast for you. We're talking real conversations with our Latin stars, from actors and artists to musicians and creators,

Starting point is 02:18:29 sharing their stories, struggles, and successes. You know it's going to be filled with cheeseman laughs and all the vibes that you love. Each week we'll explore everything from music and pop culture to deeper topics like identity, community, and breaking down barriers in all sorts of industries. Don't miss out on the fun, el te caliente and life stories. Join me for Gracias Come Again, a podcast by Honey German, where we get into todo lo actual y viral. Listen to Gracias Come Again on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

Starting point is 02:19:07 What up, y'all? Welcome to It Already Happened Here, because this was the goal of this show was to tell you that things was probably going to happen here. And then it did. I am not one of the normal hosts, as you can tell. I am your friendly cousin that shows up every once in a while during the holidays. If your cousins are anything like my cousins, which means we're immediately going to get in trouble

Starting point is 02:19:33 because parents are gonna blame you since I'm the cousin because it's not my fault because I'm the guest. Anyway, we wanna talk about some stuff that like, in some senses is a bit absurd to talk about because like The American understanding of pan-ethnic terms and demographics are just oh god sir. Yes It just don't make sense like Nobody in the group identifies as what the group is called, but that's still the group, right? Yeah I recommend a book called why fish don't exist.'s a great book. I am here with the brilliant, brilliant Mia Wong.

Starting point is 02:20:11 What's up Mia? It's all happening. It's all happening here and it sucks. But at least I'm getting great interest. This is the best one I've ever gotten. Best interest, that's what I come for. You know what I'm saying? Like I come for us to like be able to have pancakes

Starting point is 02:20:27 for breakfast, you know, cause your cousin's here. You know what I'm saying? So you get to have like pancakes for breakfast and you know, stay in your pajamas longer. Like it's great when your cousins are here. Yeah. Yeah. Anyway, so let's do this.

Starting point is 02:20:39 We want to talk about, well, the thing is like, I don't know if y'all have admitted, I admitted this on our show, that like we kinda had to have an all hands on deck discussion here as to like, okay, let's get organized, like let's figure out what we're gonna say as a network and kind of brainstorm things to talk about because I'm pretty sure like a lot of us are still like wait, what the fuck?

Starting point is 02:21:06 I'm sorry. What like you know, yeah and Us holding down the DEI section of cool zone We are the diversity equity and inclusion over here figured, you know There were some things that were super shocking around some of the data that was coming back from the exit polls as we thought about like, okay, so who actually voted for who and how much. And so we kind of wanted to talk about the Asian vote,

Starting point is 02:21:37 right? Yep. Which is again, from the intro, it's an absurd category to say that. We're gonna get into that because, oh boy. Totally, yeah. Yeah. The Latino vote, which is also equally as absurd as a category. And yeah, just where some of the sort of marginalized groups,

Starting point is 02:21:55 like some of the numbers that were in some ways shocking, I will say as far as holding down the black man section, I am very proud of us for eventually coming back home, right? And voting in the upper 80% for the black woman, you know, which was encouraging. Now, granted, our number of how many of us voted shrank immensely, you know? But either way, we just wanted to talk about those things. And I think one caveat for me

Starting point is 02:22:25 I would say and then I'll turn it over I think Mia like, you know, you can take it on from there is I am in fact a black man So I think I can speak from a certain level of experience Obviously not the experience of every human right but I can speak from a certain level of experience now as we talk about the Latino vote I am in fact newsflash, not Latino. You know what I'm saying? My wife is from East LA, but obviously proximity is not the same as being a member of. Yeah.

Starting point is 02:22:55 So keep that, keep that in mind as we discuss these things. So let me turn it over to turn it over to Mia. Yeah. And you know, this is one of these you're talking a bit about the sort of category and coherence here, right? And like one of the things about the way this is aggregated is that so Asian Americans as a whole went about 5% to the right in this election. But that doesn't capture what was going on because every part of the demographics were just sort of flying in every direction

Starting point is 02:23:28 Yeah, and unfortunately most of the actual right-wing pull was very specifically from my people Which is to say Chinese Americans who went right in staggering numbers Yeah, I don't know. I'm not really surprised by because this has just been the way that Sort of specifically Chinese American communities have been shifting for the past. I mean really like eight ten years but particularly intensifying since 2020 yeah, and So if you look at sort of where these things happened the biggest ones ones were New York and LA and, you know, places like Seattle had some shifts. But I think New York in particular, New York and LA in particular are important for this because a huge part of the reason that this happened was the sort of crime panic stuff. Yeah.

Starting point is 02:24:19 And the crime panic didn't 100% start with Chinese Americans, but it's one of the earliest sort of incubators of this entire thing. So the sort of trajectory of this is that in 2020, you have this sort of like whole stop Asian hate campaign, right? And you know, yeah, you have all this race, like sort of like racist, like incitement of violence. Yeah. And you get sort of two responses to it, right? There's the kind of like liberal isish response, which is stop Asian hate,

Starting point is 02:24:47 but it's kind of vacuous. It doesn't really have any political content at all. It's kind of vaguely anti-Trump, but like there's not much there. And then there's the right-wing response, and the right-wing response is just, okay, like we're just going to blame black people for this. Yeah. And that's like fucking horse shit It's like no it was almost everyone

Starting point is 02:25:09 Which is getting killed by white people because that's almost all of yeah the way we hit your violence works in this country, right? Yeah But yeah, but unfortunately, you know, this was an area where the left kind of just did nothing left kind of just did nothing. And if you look at the left response, you know, there's there's there's some people who did stuff right. There is, you know, like some sex worker or like Red Canary Song did some great work. But most of the rest of the American left saw this and was like, OK, the thing that matters here and the actual problem with anti-Asian violence is that people are criticizing

Starting point is 02:25:43 the Chinese government too much and That's what's causing this and so we need to defend the CCP And yeah, this is just politically. This is fucking radioactive to like yeah 80-90 percent of like fucking Asian Americans because like yeah There's a sort of combinations of factors right you have on the one hand you have sort of immigrant communities where most this shit doesn't work Because you're dealing with people who were like I don't know we're fucking sterilized by the government because the CCP decided to like do Malthusian Fucking population control have no love for the CCP none whatsoever. Yeah. Yeah, right And then this is this is all this is too reductive even with Cubans But it's like this isn't something where you could just sort of brush this away with like oh all of these people were like

Starting point is 02:26:24 reactionaries from Taiwan or something like that it's like no like a lot where you could just sort of brush this away with like oh all of these people were like reactionaries from Taiwan or something like that it's like no like a lot of these people came here very recently and There are you know there are sort of Tibetan communities. There's people from Xinjiang here Yeah, and all of those people like all of the sort of pro-ccp shit is radioactive And that's yeah What was coming out of the American left the same thing with like sort of hot with the Hong Kong movement right where there was like? Mm-hmm. You know there was this really broad consensus among sort of American social democracy You know you're sort of like people who were like marginally should left a Bernie right that that stuff was all CIA stuff

Starting point is 02:26:55 And it was bad and that you should support the CCP You know I mean there are some tenant organizers who do good work We've had on the show right like there are there are people trying to organize communities But like the mainstream left was just like fuck it. We've had on the show, right? Like there there are people trying to organize communities But like the mainstream left was just like fuck it. We don't care We don't give a shit about you like the important thing about you being killed is that we can defend this fucking state that we like Yeah and so what happened to the stop-patient hate thing is that it got folded into the crime panic because the product of this was

Starting point is 02:27:22 Both the sort of right-wing we're gonna give you anti-black racism as you're like this is this is gonna be your solution quote-unquote to this yeah and the sort of stop Asian hate like mainstream sort of liberal thing both just fed directly into carceralism yeah and you know so you started like it turned into this rallying cry for like hate crime bills and then like increasing police presences and you know like the fucking cops were like all over the place where this shit was happening and you know didn't do anything because they're cops right like facts all of this fed into it went sort of seamlessly into the crime panic

Starting point is 02:27:56 where you could just feed all of these people the sort of memory of the fear and the anger over like asian people getting killed and you could just lump that in with crime. And then these communities also, and when I say these communities, it's kind of important here to do like class breakdowns here too, because the big part of what's happening here is an alignment that I think like if the Republicans could be like 15% less racist or figure out how to channel the racism against one target at a time, a lot of these people would have fucking fled right in the first place because

Starting point is 02:28:32 Yes, that's what I was going to say. Yeah, it's like rich people, professionals and like small business owners. It's like, well, yeah, of course those people are like unbelievably sort of turbo hardline reactionaries. It's like, yeah, those are the guys who are like shooting at people from the rooftops and fucking LA and 92 like yeah But these same people in China like in Taiwan in Hong Kong these are people that if you were on the left You would just be fighting every day but you know they kind of had been lumped into the Democratic Party because of the just

Starting point is 02:28:59 Unbelievable racism from the Republicans and now the sort of crime panic stuff has finally given them this thing where the Republican deal is basically like okay if you're if you're okay with sort of being anti-black with us if you're okay with massive expansions of police presence you're okay with us running on that right and also on anti-homeless politics that's been a huge extremely effective thing particularly among yeah business owners I remember God I think I've told the story on air but back when I was in Chicago, there was this library in Chinatown that I used to like, you know, it was an extra bunch of shops.

Starting point is 02:29:30 And so you could sort of, you could get bakery food and you could go sit at these benches. And I came back to them in 2020, and the benches literally had a thing drilled into the table threatening to arrest you if you sat at them for too long. Gosh. Right, and this was like 2020, 2021.

Starting point is 02:29:45 Yeah. So, you know, that that the sort of anti-homelessness stuff had started really, really early there. And it's just hideous. And, you know, these places have swung to the right. They're electing Republicans and they're doing it because this kind of like Asian-American petit bourgeois, like small business class and some of the sort of richer tech people, et cetera, et cetera, are swinging really, really hard to the right.

Starting point is 02:30:08 Yeah, man, that actually connected so many dots for me. Like, first of all, like even to like the anti-homeless thing, like, you know, you start seeing that weird middle of the bench arm rail. Yep. Yep. Yep. You know, like, well, it's like that's so you won't lay on it. You know, that's why you did this. But like, I hope what I'm about to say is not a trope. You know what I'm saying?

Starting point is 02:30:27 It's just it's because of like the proximity that I've had with the Asian community in the sense that my stepmom's Filipino, you know, all the DJs I've all worked with, all these just hip hop at some point in the 90s. The Filipinos took over. You know what I'm saying? So like that's been a lot of ways our community, but I found that you know the like proper Asian in the jungle Asian thing where it's like depending on your relationship with the United States is almost even if you identify as Asian because you sit down 10 Filipinos like half of them gonna say they Pacific Islander. You know the other half gonna say they Asian the other half gonna say they Asian Pacific Islander and then and

Starting point is 02:31:04 then my lord Cambodia right next to them who are all in Long Beach in their crips. You know, the other half gonna say to Asian, the other half gonna say to Asian Pacific Islander. And then, and then my Lord, Cambodia right next to them who are all in Long Beach and their Crips, you know what I'm saying? So like that sort of world, like they were with us, you know, as far as like, they were just a part of our community. Whereas the sort of Northern kind of proper Asian world, like it's cities is like Alhambra, Monterrey Park,

Starting point is 02:31:24 this is very California stuff, but they stuck to themselves. You know, and they, they saw a lot of the American thing as like, this is pragmatic. Like we're here to win. Like you know, like, so when you started having the Asian hate thing, like it, it's almost like now that you say it, it's like like we just tied that community up into a bow and then handed them to the right. Because this all happened at the same time as like the anti-affirmative action.

Starting point is 02:31:53 You know? Although I do wanna say on the anti-affirmative action stuff, because I think people mischaracterize what's going on with that. Asian Americans as a whole and as subgroups support affirmative action. Very consistently, every time their polls

Starting point is 02:32:06 There's like 60% support for it, right? Yeah, but there's like 40% of these fucking dipshits who are like yes I don't know. You know I'm like my sort of like classic Asian response to this is like I Fucking did it. I was a terrible student I fuck I got into the University of Chicago like you did a fucking study harder like you're not the reason the reason you're not Getting into these universities Is it because like black people are being allowed in it's because you suck like fucking skill issue What the fuck is wrong really yeah, but like like there's there was this like class Yeah, you know this sort of class and it was a death so that's what I was gonna get to is this class

Starting point is 02:32:38 Distinction in the sense that from a black perspective. It was like yo we rallied for y'all But from a black perspective, it was like, yo, we rallied for y'all over the like stop Asian hate thing. You know what I mean? And then to come back around and see this again from a class perspective, because kind of the same thing happened in a lot of ways in the black community, because the reasoning, as you say that, that's why I say it all makes sense. The reasoning is the same. Like the system is not for me.

Starting point is 02:33:04 So I'm just going to get mine. Damn the community. Like the system is not for me. So I'm just gonna get mine. Damn the community. You know what I'm saying? Like I'm just gonna go get mine, you know? And so in the, again, in the black community, for those that swung right, it was just like, like in some senses they're like, well, well I know y'all are fucking racist.

Starting point is 02:33:21 Like, you know what I'm saying? So I'd like, as far as like the rights, like I know you are. With the left, it was more like, you know what I'm saying? So I'd like, as far as like the rights, like I know you are, with the left, it was more like, you're just gaslighting me. So, well, if you're just gonna gaslight me and I already know that you hate me, well, fuck it, I'm just gonna get mine.

Starting point is 02:33:33 And that becomes the thing. But as a community, like you said, in the same way, as far as like the beef between like the, the historical LA riots, like Chinese and Korean communities, while their parents were on the roofs of their shops shooting at us, they kids was breaking into the city. They was with us. Like, we was breaking into the same stores

Starting point is 02:33:54 we was breaking into. So that class distinction was something that made us kind of be like, bro, don't you understand, you'll never be one of them. They'll never really love you, you know? And I feel like even that sort of like appeal would lurch this group even further to be like, don't tell me who you are.

Starting point is 02:34:16 Don't tell me what they're, they're giving me what I need. You know, so yeah, like I never thought about tying all that together and being that it being like a specific, a Chinese lurching. Wow, I never thought of that. Yeah, and okay, you know what else sells products that are from China? It's these products and services.

Starting point is 02:34:33 It's worth the podcast. We sell products from China. And we're back. So I think that there's one more thing I want to make sure I get to about the Chinese American stuff before we move on. And that's one of the things you kind of brought up earlier was the insularity. Because part of what's going on here too, is that there's a lot of Chinese immigrants and people who you know you get communities They're speaking like they're you speaking like a Cantonese or Mandarin and in a lot of cases

Starting point is 02:35:11 It's like you'll get these very very small tight-knit communities with people who are speaking like the provincial dialect that's like yeah semi incomprehensible to other people right because it's like it's like effectively its own language. And one of the problems here, and this is one of the places where the left shit the bed, like wasn't doing the little organizing, right? And the consequence of this is that in these, a lot of the things that we're getting put out

Starting point is 02:35:38 in these spaces, the media is all unbelievably right-wing. Yeah. Right. There's Miles Guo who, whenever, oh God, like 12 years from now when I finished the Lab Leak episode, which is gonna be, he's gonna be a big part of this, was he was this Chinese billionaire who defected to the US and came here and ran one trillion scams

Starting point is 02:35:57 and is currently going to prison for like, I'm pretty sure he was the guy whose boat Steve Bannon was on when Steve Bannon got arrested by the post office cops. Let's go. So like- So just varsity level bad guy. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, like he was issuing passports from like a fake government in exile that he set up. He's running every scam in the entire world. But he's also, you know, he's also one of the people who started the whole lab leak thing.

Starting point is 02:36:20 And he was flooding the like all sort of Chinese language media with this hardline right-wing sort of pro-republican hardline anti-China stuff and then you have a very similar thing coming from the Falun Gong who are everywhere in any every Chinatown there's Falun Gong guys everywhere their posters they there are people so they're a cult, they run Shen Yu, they run a newspaper called the Epoch Times, which is just a pure fascist propaganda outlet. And those things kind of just like devoured the entire Chinese language media ecosystem. And it wasn't good before, because like, there were also a bunch of other weird right wing

Starting point is 02:37:02 groups. Like part of the problem here too too is it's possible for in Sort of Asian American community for you to have two people who in a by American standards have identical politics, right? They're they're identically right-wing on things like racial politics on their like credit crime Stuff, you know who are incredibly sexist and like homophobic But they absolutely fucking hate each other because one of them is a pro-CCP Chinese nationalist and one of them's an anti-CCP Chinese nationalist. Wow, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Starting point is 02:37:29 But this kind of like, what's been able to kind of weld that shit together is this sort of Republican anti-black half on crime campaign combined with all of this sort of media sphere stuff. Wow, yeah, it's Sh shades of belly and all over again, like just at least you're not them. Yeah.

Starting point is 02:37:48 You know, and yeah, like the simplicity of that right wing message of just like, here's all your problems, all your problems are those fools and I'll just get rid of them. Yeah, and we can solve this with more cops and Donald Trump. We just solve it with more, yeah. Yeah, man.

Starting point is 02:38:02 So for my end, I looked at the black and Latino vote. I can run through the black one pretty quick because it wasn't as interesting of a story. And also because, you know, we did an episode with Garrison Hayes from Mother Jones on like black conservatives and Trump voters. And I think ultimately it comes down to the fact of like the Frans Fernand thought of

Starting point is 02:38:26 like, okay, what is liberation? Like what is freedom? And is it, you know, my ability to flourish without any hindrances or is it a collective ending of suffering? You know what I'm saying? So like, in other words, it's like this plantation would be better if I ran the big house, rather than being like, burn the fucking big house down, because there shouldn't be slavery. You know what I'm saying? So like, that sort of approach to again,

Starting point is 02:38:54 the reality of why no, the system's not for me. In a lot of ways, that's what's interesting about the understanding of it. So when you would look at somebody like a black person, like, why would you vote for this racist man? And it's like, well, the same reason I would vote for every other racist man, you know what I'm saying? Like which, find me one that ain't, you know? So like that attitude is already there. So, you know, obviously all of us would push back and say that like, well, you choosing yourself

Starting point is 02:39:20 is also a vote against yourself and is destroying your community. Clearly it's never worked at some point, you know, which I'm sure y'all can relate to. It's like, I feel two ways when I see like black people, specifically black men sit at this table, because I'm like, I can imagine the first joke that you kind of let slide that was like,

Starting point is 02:39:43 I was kind of weird, but I don't know. It's not, it's no big deal. I'll get over it. Maybe they didn't mean it, you know? And then that joke gets more and more intense. And then all of a sudden you sitting in a room and they cracking jokes about Haitians eating pets and that Puerto Rico's a trap.

Starting point is 02:40:00 You know what I'm saying? It's like, it didn't start there. It started with you accepting and just being like all lightened up. And at some point, somebody said something to you and you made a face and they went, dude, it's a joke, man. It's a joke. Come on, bro, you know me.

Starting point is 02:40:15 You know me, right? You've had that, you know what I'm saying? And I know that happened a year ago and now look at you. So like, eventually the point I'm making is like, at some point you are going to have to lay down all of your identifying factors to be able to stand at, stay at this table. And, and I hope that, I hope that 30 year fixed mortgage

Starting point is 02:40:35 was worth it. You know? So the black story is that, is like, what is going to get us the financial or get me, specifically, mine us the financial or get me specifically mines the financial freedom that that the Democrats kept promising, but never gave to us. But that's, like I said, that's a much less interesting story. And my, in my opinion, then then the Latino vote, which we could talk

Starting point is 02:41:00 about after this break. Woo. So we're back now. So we're back now. So we're back now. 64% right of air quotes, 64% right of air quotes, 64% right of air quotes, Latinos voted right wing this year. Latinos voted right wing this year.

Starting point is 02:41:12 Now I feel like this, Now I feel like this, Wow. I feel like I know this needs a lot of unpacking Wow. I feel like I know this needs a lot of unpacking Because first of all, Because first of all, Because first of all,

Starting point is 02:41:20 Because first of all, Because first of all, Because first of all, Because first of all, Because first of all, Because first of all, Because first of all, Because first. Now, I feel like this, well, I don't feel like I know this needs a lot of unpacking because first of all, what the hell is a Latino? Yeah. Right.

Starting point is 02:41:32 Is the first question that you have to ask. And essentially I think I've come to the fact that what America means by that is you were colonized by Spain. So in some way you kind of speak somewhat Spanish unless it's Brazil. Yeah. In which case you were colonized by the Portuguese. Right? So it's like you don't even know what you mean. Like y'all don't even know what you mean. It's sort of it's staggering that like one of our primary demographic categories was

Starting point is 02:41:56 invented by a coalition of like Maoists and like Vietnamese, Marxist, Leninists that fell apart immediately with the moment that China invaded Vietnam. And that's only our second most incoherent democratic category. Like it's. It's completely incoherent, right? So you have exactly, you have my wife, my life partner who is born in LA, but she is a first gen.

Starting point is 02:42:22 She grew up in Southern Mexico. She is first gen Mexican, but she is a first gen. She grew up in Southern Mexico. She is first gen Mexican, but she's like, I identify as indigenous. And it's true. She is like, even when we did the DNA test, if you believe in that stuff, she's like, but you can just look at her. And I'm like, you're inking.

Starting point is 02:42:40 Like, you know what I'm saying? You're looking at her and she's like, yeah, you're right. Like we are overwhelmingly vast majority of her DNA is indigenous. So for her, if you check a demographic box, it's like, are you Hispanic? She's like, why would I identify with the colonizer? So no, I'm not Hispanic.

Starting point is 02:43:00 Like they're the colonizer, right? Whereas you ask a Puerto Rican or a Cuban or Dominican, they say Hispanic, but they just mean it differently. One, because the island was called Hispanolla, you know what I'm saying? So like, they just mean something totally different and Dominicans is black as hell, you know what I'm saying? And then what about a Cuban?

Starting point is 02:43:21 The way that they relate to America is also incredibly different, especially because it like, you know, I'm pretty sure y'all, y'all room knows is if you could touch dry ground. Right. Yeah. And that really just had to do with the fact that we just ain't fuck with Castro. So the way that they relate to even immigration is completely different because if you could make it to the soil, if you could make it to Florida, you a citizen. So they just didn't go through the same things

Starting point is 02:43:46 that people from Central and South America went through to be able to become a citizen. And on top of all that, California, Arizona, and Texas is Mexico. So like, so some of them ain't immigrants, they was here. Like the border move, we didn't cross the border, the border crossed us. So you put all that together, mixed with a group of people who

Starting point is 02:44:09 might be ninth generation Mexican. People that don't speak Spanish, the no sabos, as you call it, won't even speak Spanish. You know what I'm saying? That like, you love all these people who speak so many different languages and have so many different understandings of who they are, and you just call them Latino,

Starting point is 02:44:28 and then you get this number. But if you're willing to accept the absurdity of it, then we could talk about the actual, like what actually happened here. And what you find are two things that are, seem so reductive, but as you look at the exit polls and even like interviews that I personally conducted, if you set aside the person that has been just cooked

Starting point is 02:44:53 by just the right wing information, like set that person aside, that is just your brain's been cooked. Like you set that aside and you look at this, there are two very reductive things that just continue to just be true. One is Latin America is very religious. It's still Catholic and machismo

Starting point is 02:45:14 is a big part of their culture. And it just, it seems so reductive, but it's what happened. This is still a very patriarchal culture. And you know, as anecdotal and as running joke as it is that like if you have a Latina daughter and she's bringing, because again, they're very traditional. That's why I'm saying I'm using cisgender things.

Starting point is 02:45:39 It's like you bring a boy over, your grandma or your Tia's are watching you make him a plate. You have to go over there and make him a plate and sit it in front of him. Or you going to be judged. This is just the culture, you know? So it's no surprise that that is not going to play into how you vote. Right. And then secondly, the religious thing in the sense that like, this actually like really

Starting point is 02:46:06 blew my mind. And a couple interviews I had, I wanted to talk to specifically Latina women, because I was like, it just seemed as though there was just a triple layer of, of shit you'd have to swallow to be able to go this route. Right. to be able to go this route, right? And my main question was like, what was the non-negotiable and was there a line that Trump and by extension, the Republican party could cross? Like, where's the line?

Starting point is 02:46:39 What is the too far line, right? And they landed on a few things. It was crazy, like after talking to three different women, they all kind of landed on a few things. It was, it was crazy. Like after talking to three different women, they all kind of landed on the same things. It was abortion. Right. They were like, at the end of the day, this is untenable. And to which I pushed back where I was like, well, Trump's not anti-abortion. And what they all said was like, we could deal with the 16 week.

Starting point is 02:47:03 Like I could deal with the 16 week thing, obviously, because again, they are women and they're not completely peeled. They're like, we understand that there are situations that happen, right? That just are intenable. And then the next thing that they said was like, which was the part that like really just kept putting

Starting point is 02:47:23 my brain in a pretzel was, we are really big on anti-sex trafficking and the, the idea for us on this knowing that like, okay, so the right wing stole that, like they don't believe it, they stole that concept and they wrapped everything around it. Right. But one of them mentioned how she couldn't vote for Hillary because she heard rumors about child stuff. And she's, I mean, she's referring to Pizzagate, you know? Yeah, yeah.

Starting point is 02:47:52 It's just huge shit. Of which I was able to push back to be like, well, that was, you know, it was debunked. Like, and she was like, I just don't wanna, I just don't like, I just don't like how they move. I don't trust Bill and how he behaved in the Oval Office. And it's like, you're looking around like, are you? They were both on Epstein's plate.

Starting point is 02:48:11 Like, what? I'm like, and she even said, she was like, but the Epstein thing, and I'm like, well, they're all, I don't understand, I don't understand how you don't see this connection. Right? And to which they both said, oh no, we see it. Again, find me someone that's not nasty is their answer. Find me someone that's not corrupt.

Starting point is 02:48:33 Find me someone that's not nasty. At least he's gonna save the babies was the thing. And then the next question I had about them was the anti-immigration thing, the borders, right? And we're talking to people who are one into some of them, three generations removed. And one of them gave me an example of a family members in law who got deported 50 years old, got deported from something they did when they were 19. He's like, it's tough.

Starting point is 02:49:05 Like this was a hardworking man who's done his best, who has done everything they could. And it's got to, so I asked her like, yo, do you think that, so do you think that that's unfair? She said, no. She was like, our family waited in line. Our family did everything they needed to do.

Starting point is 02:49:23 We fought, we came to this, same thing. We came to this country because we believed in the dream and we fought for it, you know, and we did it right. You know, obviously like with the Mexican, like sort of like work ethic of like no excuses, just work. We can't stand for no cheaters. We don't believe in stuff like that. You have to work for yours, right? And we come here, there's no cuts in front of the lines,

Starting point is 02:49:46 there's no shortcuts, you do the work, right? And if you cheat, you go to the back of the line. That's just what it is. So she's like, he's talking about criminals. I'm not a criminal, he's talking about criminals. Yeah. You know, that's not me. I'm a hardworking citizen, you know?

Starting point is 02:50:03 So that sort of mindset. And then she said, at the end of the day, we came for the dream. I'm here to work, you know? And if I put in the work, if my family puts in the work, we succeed, that's what this country's for. You're fucking it up for all of us. You cheating the system is fucking it up for all of us. You cheating the system is fucking it up for all of us. And so that sort of like, I can swallow the racist shit

Starting point is 02:50:30 because I don't give a fuck about you anyway. Cause I already know you don't give a fuck about me. I'm just here to get mine. So for them, at least according to the way they're explaining it is like the prejudice line is not a line they worried about. That's something I've already accepted, you know? But what is a line is not a line they worried about that's something I've already accepted you know, but what is a line is oddly enough treatment of women and the treatment of children and

Starting point is 02:50:53 The ability to flourish and then lastly for the men It's what we know like just the manosphere is cooked our kids. They just cooked them You know and it dovetailed so well into the Latino machismo. And even on the black shit, like I knew we were in trouble when the hood niggas was talking, was running around here saying they was gonna vote for Trump cause they understand it. It's like, you either get on or get out.

Starting point is 02:51:21 Like I'm here, I'm gonna get with my, you either for me or against me We this is what we doing. You know i'm saying right i'm gonna let you be You know as as derogatory as this is like i'm gonna let you be a man You go fight what you gonna fight and the democrats are gonna turn your sons into daughters I don't probably that like that's the that's the thought you know i'm saying it's like okay, well, fuck it, let's just get ours. You know what I'm saying? That simplicity of a message, it just resonated. While you have, which didn't bother me,

Starting point is 02:51:52 but you have somebody like Obama coming in there like somebody's uncle, basically like you young niggas need to turn, pull up your pants, stop acting like thugs and get in line. You know what I'm saying? It's like, all right, okay, you know, to me, I don't bother me because I'm like, well, yeah, you're somebody's uncle.

Starting point is 02:52:07 Like you are that, of course that's how you talk. But the street dudes is like, look, man, I don't need this Harvard grad, pretty ass rich nigga to tell me what it's like. You was never out, you weren't out here. You weren't in the trenches. You know what I'm saying? Like you're a millionaire.

Starting point is 02:52:22 I don't like you, you barely want to, oh, cause you can hoop? Oh, cause you like basketball, you one of us. You know what I'm saying like you're a millionaire. I don't like you. I'm you barely one. Oh cuz you can whoop Oh, so you like basketball you one of us, you know, I'm saying so I just think that that like You've already got yours so Let me get mine is like at the end of the day was so appealing To this particular demographic and it just made sense. So that's why they voted that way Yeah to this particular demographic and it just made sense. So that's why they voted that way. Yeah, and I think there's just sort of like angles

Starting point is 02:52:47 of this to the connect with what was going on with the Asian Americans. So they're partially also the religion angle is a thing that isn't talked about enough and also isn't talked about enough with Asian Americans, like particularly Chinese Americans. There's a whole bunch of, how do I explain this in a way that, you know, this sort of like zeal of a convert shit where like the first generation converts are the most nuts

Starting point is 02:53:10 Yeah, yeah, so that's like a huge portion of like Chinese Christians are these like first generation evangelical converts and so you get these just like Really terrifying like ferociously right-wing stuff that just kind of eats everything around it. And I think the second part is, I think there's an interesting distinction here too, because I think there's a kind of differing parts of the story-ness of the kind of like, we came here to work thing, because that was was the Asian American thing from maybe 20 years ago and the last 10 years and especially post 2020 has been people realizing that it's not real. Yeah. And that you know, you work, you work, you work, you work. And this is actually also funny enough, exact same thing happening in China with sort of different political results, because it's less it's, you know, we not dealing with yeah like the same kind of sort of immigrant culture stuff but the Chinese American version

Starting point is 02:54:06 of this was like okay we need to figure out who to blame for this yeah and they were like well yeah okay it's because of like all of this crime shit because like people aren't going to prison for 1 million years and like I see a black person and there's like a homeless person who I have to like walk past every day this is the reason why like our fucking dream died. And that was a really sort of appealing message to people. And it's the same kind of thing with the people who went for the affirmative action stuff,

Starting point is 02:54:33 where it was like the people who, you know, are like in all seriousness, like we're running into kind of like, oh no, there actually is a sort of wall that you hit where it doesn't matter how hard you work, like there's only so many spots at university, there's only so many. Totally.

Starting point is 02:54:49 You know, there's only so much so far you can go and hitting that wall drove a bunch of people right. You make a good point, you know, and I imagine the same sort of reaction to that within the Chinese community is gonna be the same with ours where it's like, okay, you go learn that you are not welcome to that table. You know, they will always choose themselves. And, you know, you could dress yourself up, you know, and just to the degree for which you can alter all identifying factors for us, it's like to the degree for which you can remove your blackness is to the degree for which you're welcomed

Starting point is 02:55:27 in this table, but at some point you can't take it off. It don't rub off. Dress your kids up. That was like for us with respectability politics, like teach your kids to speak proper English and dress them up and don't let them wear hoodies. Okay, good luck. Jay-Z's seminal work. Look, OJ said, I'm not black, I'm OJ.

Starting point is 02:55:48 Okay. Like, you know, it is just, they will never accept you. The world you're trying to get into will never accept you. And this step towards trying to be accepted by this world is working against you and everyone else behind you. You know? But this is America. You can vote however you want to vote.

Starting point is 02:56:08 Well, and I think 2020, like for us, was that moment, right? Where like, you know, everyone kind of got knocked out of the, you know, whichever way you sort of fragmented politically is like that's when you got knocked out of the sort of Obama multiracial dream. Yeah. Was when you realized that like all of this fucking progress you made isn't gonna stop people from killing you in the street. Yes.

Starting point is 02:56:28 And the reaction to that was like, and I saw this on the left where like a bunch of people basically splintered off and became like hardline Chinese nationalists because they were afraid. And they were like, okay, well, you know, here's this thing that we have, this like strong state that will protect us. And we just have to fight for it here.

Starting point is 02:56:41 I was like, well, that didn't work, right? You know, and then you have a lot of other people who started to recognize that this wasn't going to happen, right? Like the thing that they had bought into was a lie, but the part of it that they believed, they were just like, well, okay, if we can just like fucking get the black people out of here and like we can get the cops in, you know, we can go back to living in our fucking fantasy world. And that's been just the sort of dominant response to it. I don't know. It's it's bleak But it's not something that can't be overcome But it's gonna require

Starting point is 02:57:15 Like it's gonna require organizing and it's gonna require the left to not be about Fucking making white people feel more anti-imperialist, which has been what fucking politics towards Asian Americans has been. And until that shit gets jettisoned, like, you're gonna keep seeing this shit accelerate. Yeah. Man, has there been any, I don't know if the right term is like vision casting among this community? if the right term is like vision casting among this community. Because like I say that to say, albeit a very small, very small fraction of voices, but among some of the black thinkers is like a serious consideration of pursuing,

Starting point is 02:57:57 like creating a third party of just like, like, but let's like take it serious this time. Like for real, for real. Yeah. You know, like there's, you know, it's like I said, it's very small and like, but let's like take it serious this time, like for real, for real. Yeah. You know, like there's, you know, it's like I said, it's very small. And like, obviously, like my grandchildren will probably be the ones to see any sort of beginnings of that actually taking root. But it's still like, you know, if you were to this, some of the things that are being talked about right now, like we should like really,

Starting point is 02:58:21 like really consider it. Is there anything like that going on? No, like and this is this is also part of consider it is anything like that going on no like and this is this is also part of the problem is that like the Asian American intellectual class is like one of the most bankrupt classes in the entire country there's nothing it's a wasteland out there like it's oh my god yeah like it's it's so bad it's like all of the art in the media the culture and the sort of analysis is all I've talked about in this show a decent amount

Starting point is 02:58:47 But it's all wrapped up in this sort of like oh you too can like integrate become a small business owner and those people You know the people who believe that and people who did that don't actually have any interesting ideas Yeah They have they have the incredibly narrow ideas of their class and the incredible narrow idea incredibly narrow ideas of their class are completely useless For the sort of tasks we have ahead of us. Yeah. And it's kind of working for them. Yeah. I mean, it's working for them. It's working for them. It's just isn't working for anyone else.

Starting point is 02:59:12 Yeah, exactly. Yeah. And like, God, like, I don't know, like the people who are supposed to be like Wesley Yang, who was supposed to be like the great sort of like new Asian intellectual is now this just completely cooked right winger. Like some of some of the people have been like turning on like some of the like the big podcasters have been like turning on trans people and I'm just like well fuck all you guys eat shit basically so yeah it's it's a the situation's bad it's also the fragmentation mm-hmm is so powerful

Starting point is 02:59:42 because you're dealing with so many kinds of like linguistic lines and lines between people who've been here for ten Generations and people who just like walk off the boat yesterday There's a big you know and so the fragmentation I think helps yeah prevent a more coherent sphere, but like it's it's bleak out there Yeah, you know obviously like the black queer community is obviously incredibly vibrant and strong and organized and you know, at least from the part of the intersection that I'm a part of, you know, the voice coming out of that space of like,

Starting point is 03:00:20 a lot of times of like very much prophetic and like, you know, very much like truth telling that you hear from again, like, you know, black queer community is like, from our perspective, they continue to be like five steps ahead of us. Yeah. You know, of like where we need to go as a people. Yeah, this was like the sex worker orgs for us,

Starting point is 03:00:39 but then because this is another thing with left just kind of shit the bed, right? Like this is the thing with Bernie, Bernie voted for a sister foster, right? And there's never been a reckoning about that at all Yeah, and so, you know like the stuff that could have come out of that just kind of never did and we never got the kind of integration the kind of politics that we could have had if people had been like the kind of politics that we could have had if people had been like 5% well not 5% so they would have required them to move their positions a bit

Starting point is 03:01:10 But like people had actually cared about sex workers who wouldn't be here right now, but you told your own story. Yeah. Yeah Well, that was informative This has been I don't know. How do I just how do we describe what this has been? Well, yeah, you know, I think I close with this, right? I like I don't this situation isn't hopeless. Yeah, right There's there's been a lot of good tenant organizing going on Like there's a lot of kinds of stuff that can and do work It's notice to the grindstone time. Yeah, it's time to lock in time to organize and these communities can be organized

Starting point is 03:01:44 Yeah, we just haven't yet and you know, yeah to your point It's time to lock in, it's time to organize. And these communities can be organized. We just haven't yet. And you know. Yeah, to your point, like for me, like all information is helpful. Like if somebody's lying to you, like it's good information to know that this person thinks that that's something worth lying about.

Starting point is 03:02:01 You know, like you just told me something about yourself, that the fact that you think that that's worth lying about. You know, like you just told me something about yourself, the fact that you think that that's worth lying about. So I say all that to say, this understanding, a better understanding of like, it's hard to reason with somebody when they hungry. You know, so just a better understanding of what do these communities actually prioritize? What do they actually value?

Starting point is 03:02:23 And obviously like, you know, the Dems and, and unfortunately even the left was just like, just swinging a miss guys. Like this type of thing, like you said, it's not hopeless. It's like, now there's an understanding of like, okay, so you value the hustle. All right. Well, let me tell you in the ways for which the choice you just made is working against your hustle, you know, like, or now, now here, here are ways for which you can, like you said, nose to the grind and accomplish these goals in a way that's not so detrimental to

Starting point is 03:02:54 the people around you. Yeah. You know, I'm with it. Like, I'm not hopeless either. I think that we just need to think about the word, our word choice and what hills we willing to die on and be like, this is what we meant when we said this. Yeah. Hey, we'll be back Monday with more episodes

Starting point is 03:03:11 every week from now until the heat death of the universe. It Could Happen Here is a production of Cool Zone Media. For more podcasts from Cool Zone Media, visit our website, coolzonedmedia.com or check us out on the iHeart radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can now find sources for It Could Happen here listed directly in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.

Starting point is 03:03:31 Hey guys, I'm Kate Max. You might know me from my popular online series, The Running Interview Show, where I run with celebrities, athletes, entrepreneurs, and more. After those runs, the conversations keep going. That's what my podcast, Post Run High, is all about. It's a chance to sit down with my guests and dive even deeper into their stories, their journeys, and the thoughts that arise once we've hit the pavement together. Listen to Post Run High on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. An anthology podcast of modern-day horror stories, inspired by the most terrifying legends

Starting point is 03:04:27 and lore of Latin America. Listen to Nocturnal on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. Daphne Caruana Galizia was a Maltese investigative journalist who on October 16th 2017 was assassinated. Crooks everywhere unearthed the plot to murder a one woman WikiLeaks. She exposed the culture of crime and corruption that were turning her beloved country into a Mafia state. Listen to Crooks Everywhere on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. On Thanksgiving Day 1999, five-year-old Cuban boy, Elian Gonzalez, was found off the coast of Florida.

Starting point is 03:05:19 And the question was, should the boy go back to his father in Cuba? Mr. Gonzalez wanted to go home, and he wanted to take his son with him. Or stay with his relatives in Miami? Imagine that your mother died trying to get you to freedom. Listen to Chess Piece, the Elian Gonzalez story on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Do. A.K.A. You're Rich BFF to break it down. Looking at the numbers is one of the most honest reflections of what your financial picture actually is.

Starting point is 03:06:08 The numbers won't lie to you. Listen to this week's episode of Let's Talk Offline on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Behind the Bastards - It Could Happen Here Weekly 156

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