Better Offline - Hater Season: Caleb Wilson, Juniper and Arif Hasan

Episode Date: February 18, 2026

Better Offline’s “Hater Season” - an ongoing roundtable with tech’s greatest haters - continues as Ed talks with Kill The Computer’s Juniper and Caleb and Arif Hasan of Wide Left about prediction markets, silicon valley’s billionaire whiners, and how Anthropic is trying to redefine “profitability.” Please support me by subscribing to my premium newsletter - here’s $10 off your first year of annual https://edzitronswheresyouredatghostio.outpost.pub/public/promo-subscription/84rt762qen Arifwideleft.footballx.com/ArifHasanNFLarif.bsky.socialCaleb and Junehttps://bsky.app/profile/birdrespecter.bsky.social https://bsky.app/profile/killthecomputer.com https://bsky.app/profile/junlper.beer https://x.com/canteverdie YOU CAN NOW BUY BETTER OFFLINE MERCH! Go to https://cottonbureau.com/people/better-offline and use code FREE99 for free shipping on orders of $99 or more. --- LINKS: https://www.tinyurl.com/betterofflinelinks Newsletter: https://www.wheresyoured.at/ Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/BetterOffline/  Discord: chat.wheresyoured.at Ed's Socials: https://twitter.com/edzitron https://www.instagram.com/edzitron https://bsky.app/profile/edzitron.com https://www.threads.net/@edzitron Email Me: [e-mail] omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Better Offline. That's one of my very rude guests, Juniper. from Kill the Computer, who is here with her much less rude co-host, Caleb. Caleb, Wilson, Caleb, thank you for joining us. So far. So far. Yes. Yeah, it's a competition. And of course, we've got a Rifa San from

Wide Left, the Football, podcast Plus newsletter. Well, we've come in, I brought everyone together today just to complain. And I'm going to complain about the fact that my microphone just fell over. Perfect. Which is annoying. I also want to complain that I wasn't given the opportunity to invest in something

called Gary's List, which is Gary Tan, who currently runs a Y Combinator, says, we're starting a Citizens Union for Radical Centrism. We proved local politics is widable in San Francisco. Now we're building the community to do it everywhere, news commentary and accountability for policies that affect California and our society. And I'm just going to say, go fuck yourself, Gary. If you write the words radical centristism, horrible. I hate that, man. I just love the status quo So I've actually been looking into I've been learning a little bit about this guy

Recently and like Y Combinator I primarily be like by proxy of finding out about This place in San Francisco called Epic Church Are you familiar with this thing called Epic Church? What is this? What is epic? I'm immediately sold It's it's really epic it's it's bacon It's it's

The normal beans it's cool beans Yeah it's all that stuff But no basically it's this this tech positive church like basically in an evangelical church for tech minded people and like founders in the in the bay area so like people like tray what's the name tre stevens go there gary tan goes there all these like weird fucking awful type people like peter teal i swear to god i i am not shini peter teal is like one of the thought leaders of the type of people there like they how are we spelling thought actually a thought

T-H-O-T because that's A-H-O-T is. That's that it? But no, it's like the worst kind of person in the Tuck world getting evangelical. Like,

they're like turning to religion. They do. This is like a whole thing. This is where Peter Kiel got the idea to like create clavicular. He's like, I need a new holy blood boy. He is their Jesus Christ.

Clavicular is their, their virgin's birth. We're Christ-maxing now. But it's like a whole. whole thing now, right? Where, like, people who were, like, typically associated with movements that might be humanist or atheist or whatever you want to call it have, like, because their old white men have turned into, like, embracing some version of Christianity, right?

Like, even Richard Dawkins, like the atheist supreme or whatever the hat he wears, is like, well, I'm a cultural Christian. And, like, all of them have just been moving more towards. What the fuck is a cultural Christian? I don't... Just being American? I... Yes.

I... Look, he's a piece of shit and any way he can kind of communicate that, I think he'll take those opportunities. But like, the tech god church feels... Perfect for that. I don't know. I feel like we've used the meme,

don't create the torment nexus, like way too often, but it just feels like every time you explain something new about what's happening in the world, like some tech billionaire has read something from a sci-fi novel and has taken like the wrong lesson from it like again and again. Like oh yeah, we've started a church to worship technology. Oh, literally. Best example of this,

sorry, you can go, go on. Best example of this just because he's been on my mind a lot recently and I've, I read a lot about his anti-Christ's like tour that he's been doing. But Peter Thiel, he read the philosopher René Jirard and he came away with the exact opposite interpretation of I think of what you're supposed to take away from this philosopher, which is that, like, society and powerful people use scapegoats to, like political scapegoats to put blame on certain people to get whatever political end that you want. And that's like a cautionary tale. It's like a cautionary tale against scapegoats.

Yeah, Peter Thiel, he's like, wait, but skatecoops are kind of goaded, though, like literally. Like, we can use them to our advantage. Is this a bad time for me to like? to announce that I'm launching my new company that's called the ring from Lord of the Rings. The One Ring. The One Ring. And you're partnering with a surveillance company.

You're partnering with Palantirian. Oh, yeah. Under my company, all the surveillance companies will unite. He's the thing with this Gary's List thing. I've been clicking around. He writes so often. Like, he posts like an article a day. So this is a blog that he runs?

I guess as well. as that, but also it's not particularly good one. Is this like Emily's list for perverts? Like, what is Gary's list? It appears to be a blog in which he complains. We need more of those. We need more substacks like that. It's complaining

but also a degree of, it's like complaining but also saying he cares about centrism and then he's like, AI just ported SimCity of four days without reading the fucking just, I want what makes want to put a gun in my mouth?

Is this like he's attempting to wrangle Andrew Yang as like a guest poster or something? I just don't know what possible... I'm still stuck on the list idea. Why is it called list? I'm actually kind of mad about this. It's a list of his posts. Like that appears to be it. I just...

This guy is a billionaire. Yeah. I assume that means he has tens of millions of dollars liquid. you could do so much with that. You could do pretty much anything. You could have your favorite chef, make a meal. I assume you eat those. And you could have your favorite band playing at the same time, wherever you wanted to in the world. And you're like, no, I need to make fucking blog for centrism. I need to protect centrism from something. It looks like he's very anti-union. He's complaining about in one of these articles about how 30, thousand kids are pawns in a union war that won't even help the teachers there yeah no he is

it's exactly he's the kind of guy but that's the thing is like every I feel like not you know maybe not every but like the majority of the most influential tech uh tech Silicon Valley person these days are turning to evangelical religion they complain about how there's not enough centrism

in the world today while they benefit and like simultaneously they benefit and work with the Trump administration. So like, what do you, what are they even complaining about at the end of the day? And what do they mean? Yeah, what do they even really mean? I think they just mean that they don't like.

Really what I think it is is I think they just don't like that people don't like them as much as people used to. These people are mad that no one's really following for the like AI grift of like, oh, it's going to simultaneously. AI is going to replace all of our jobs, but simultaneously make the world a better place. Like no one's really falling for that. And I think they're mad about that. I think these people are genuinely upset.

AI is in its gentleman science era. What the fuck does that? What do you mean? What do you mean the gentleman science? It's a four-minute read from Gary Tan. Come on. Okay, so this is beautiful, right? Because all of the images in this article are obviously AI generated as for all of these articles, right?

Because if you're going to have an ethos being a cheap piece of shit, you might as well embrace it. But in it, it has a jar labeled maple syrup. Yeah, what the fuck is it? And what is in the jar? I have no idea what is in the jar,

but it is not maple syrup. I am terrified about it. We'll include a link to this because it is just, it's wonderful because it's just a bucket with maple syrup in it. I assume. And like O-rings or gaskets or something.

It looks like a Chardonera. It's the way it looks like. It looks like it has like some carrots in it. I don't know. Very Chicago pilled. The TLDR of this article is LLMs have reset the research game. The biggest breakthroughs are simple ideas. Anyone can try.

And the easy questions haven't been answered yet. To which I say, what the fuck you're talking about? What do you mean? The biggest breakthroughs are simple ideas, but the easy questions haven't been answered yet. Come on. What does that even mean? I don't know. I just, this guy's a billionaire.

He could do any. thing. Like, you can hire a good right up. Like, for example. I can't get over the idea that... The gentleman's science. The issue is that science is too hard. Like... Well, I mean, that is kind of the issue of science in general.

Well, that's a good thing, though. Yeah. It's like... We've gotten past the part of science that is easy, which means we have made advancements, and you have to study science to be good. I don't... This feels what the fuck are.

we doing? He wants every dope to be able to advance the field, which like I guess in theory. Science in the hands of a dollar like me. I'm going to start the one ring company if you do that. You'll accidentally create a black hole with a Hadron Collider. Like you will do that. I'm just saying, dude, Elon Musk is the richest man on the planet. And he is so fucking stupid, but I could be worse.

And actually, speaking of him, he's another person that's embraced this like soft religion aesthetic. He was in an interview with Katie Miller. Of course, you need more demons around talking to people like Elon Musk. And he's like, yeah, you know, I believe in God. You know, I do believe in a creator. And it's like, all of this

I guess the reason I've been focusing so much on that in particular recently with all of these people like Gary Tan, all of these people, is it's all happening at the same time. They're all sort of doing this weird embrace of evangelical religion. All sort of it started before, it started before

Trump became president. But I don't know if it's like a cope thing. I've been fucking dull. I think some of it might be, and this might be just doing too much like armchair pop psychology. But like I think some of it is that in order to kind of proselytize for AI, in order to evangelize their own kind of element or this thing, they have to put themselves in a frame of mind that allows them to believe in the kind of

powerful myth-making that is analogous to religion, especially because some of these singularity people, which is not necessarily the same as some of these AI people, but there's a lot of overlap. Do believe that AI will become God, right? Like a backwards-looking God. You know, I don't think these people believe in anything. Sure. I just, like, that's kind of, like, but I guess that it's just a convenient label. Right. Yeah, here the word believe just serves as like an analog for telling us the things that they think we should believe, right? Like, I don't really care if they actually believe this shit. I care that they're telling people this shit.

Well, there was a really good profile on Peter Thiel. I think it was unwired about how he uses, like, Christian apocalyptic and times imagery and a lot of his speeches. And I was really interested in all that, which we talk about on our show, Jim. Yeah, that's the piece about René Girard, the philosopher that he, like, sort of go on, sorry, yeah. That's it. Just he does that, and then Gerard, and then, you know, he's very.

very big on Carl Schmidt. I'll let you, if you know who that is, if you know who that is, I'll just draw your own conclusions. I just, I just, this all comes back to a very simple thing for me, which is these are not things you do if you have anything you enjoy. Yeah. If I'm sitting,

if I'm sitting alone, it's been a long day, I have, I can name five movies and six video games. I could, I could, I've been weary watching personal interest. Excellent show.

Makes me so happy. Watching with my girlfriend. It's awesome. But I drink a diet, at coke with that. Wow, I feel awesome. These people are like, I need to take on a new religion. I need to create a pro-centrism blog. And only then will I possibly be happy. It's just, it's just, I would say it was sad if I cared for these people in any way, shape, or four. It's just, I hear, oh, they're into religion. No, they're not. They just, they, they sit around like

bored motherfuckers tugging on their wing. he's going, oh, what's going on in the world? What, Jesus was real. The God was too. The GPU is the GPUs. We've got a hundred GPUs. He put the GPS together. It could make the AGA.

I don't know what that really means. But anyway, who's in your email inbox, Peter? Oh. Jeffrey Epstein. Yeah. By the way, here's a thing I'll say, J-mail. I think the people who made J-Mail should get a Pulitzer.

For sure. Absolutely. People that made J-mail, which is the searchable Epstein database, really, really like, they deserve a Pulitzer here. And also, so does the guy who the final email that Jeffrey Epstein received on JEEE Project at Yahoo.com was just a guy called Cody Rudland. And he said, loll good riddens. And the subject was yoddick. Fucking buzzer-beating. He buzzer-beat Jeffrey Epstein.

That's like, bam up. Also, Jeffrey Epstein got invited to a Michael Clayton screening. Anyway, I don't want to get into Epstein because I know that it'll be all... Right, yeah, it's a whole different thing. It's just, we're in such a weird spot of the moment with all this AI shit as well because there was that something big is happening piece. Oh, yeah. Oh, I wanted to kill myself with that one.

Oh, I haven't heard about this, please. I also want to be in a state where I'm going to kill myself. Tell me. Yeah, well, it's a piece by this guy who's like a scammer. who guy called Matt Schumer who back in 2024 claimed his reflection 70B

wait is this is this when the AI like tried to post something to like GitHub and it got rejected no no that's a different thing entirely that was the scam the week before yeah that was not a scam no no no that one I'll get to in a second though this was the one where it was like a 4,700 word blog

that's my fucking joke oh I read it no no I did read this yeah I did it into a work account I remember 4,700 because I put it into a word counter Yep, because I was like, what the fuck is this? Yeah, no, it sucks, but yeah, we have listeners. They should also know what this is. No, I mean, they heard about it on the modelogue last week, so they're all, and then

most people said, don't worry about being angry, and one person was like, you need to be less angry. It's just, I think we're entering like a hysteria zone, and I actually, my favorite thing about that blog by far was watching two or three other people try and do similar blogs, and just nothing happened. people being like actually yeah it's actually it's actually crazier than this it's actually even bigger and crazier I think the thing that I thought was even weirder about that piece

is there was a lot of people I do genuinely respect that like shared that piece and they were like oh my god like everyone needs to read this like typically you know very skeptical people that have very good takes Chris Hayes dude yeah yeah like all these people did Chris Hayes share it? Yeah yes Christopher

People mad at me because I said some not so nice things about my friend Chris Hayes. But you know what? If you take that shit credulously, you're a dullard. I'm sorry, Chris. You can clue that one. The thing about this article that really gets me article, blog post, unvetted piece of AI. Because it is clearly written by AI, by the way, which should not be shocking, given that it's an AI evangelism piece. Of course, it's written by AI, which, by the way, Cleveland.com released an editor's thing today.

Oh, God. Yeah, we'll get that in a second. They turned, or a journalism candidate had turned down a job with them because the, Cleveland.com is like the newspaper of Cleveland, right? And a student who was trying to get a job with them turned down the job because they don't have reporters writing articles. They have an AI rewrite specialist who turns their material into draft. So they just have the reporters do like sourcing and quote gathering and stuff like that. feed into an air. Yeah, dude.

And the editorial explaining this and explaining that journalism schools are failing students by making them think they should write, he's also obviously written by AI.

But back to this article by Schumer. So it is obviously written by AI. But it keeps on coming up with these examples that are contextually actually very poor examples of the thing that they're trying to demonstrate.

But there's like a million of them. Right? It's like a gitch gallop. of like AI benchmarks that are meant to create this sense that AI is like the, like, smarter than PhDs or past the bar exam. And it's like, well, when you work. Also, PhDs listen to this. And I will say this. Not very smart people.

I know if you've not met enough PhDs if you're like PhD level into. Not to say there are every PhD is stupid, but not to say every PhD is smart either. Well, okay, I will, I'll say this. Ben Carson is a gifted neurosurgeon, right? Like, think about that. well, was. Was. But like, think about that.

People have their special. Right? Yeah. And PhDs are incredibly talented within, but like even with analogous specials, like, we've seen PhDs in like chemistry come out and write books about how like AIDS isn't real, right? Like chemistry is pretty close to biology and you still got that fucking wrong, right? But regardless of like that, like stuff like past the bar exam is like in the. thing. And it's like, contextually, it's actually not that interesting because they passed something

called a universal bar exam, which no individual state use. There's like a million other things. Also, the best, though, but the best thing in it was him saying that he cited this meta, METR study. Oh, it doesn't even say it. Well, no, no, but what's great about it is it's like, it's like tasks that an AI can do the involve it working autonomously for hours, hours and hours, right? When you go and click on it, it's actually tasks that it succeeds at 50% of the time. Yeah. The meta or whatever it was is absolutely mischaracterized, like egregiously mischaracterized. Like to the point if we had journalism still and this was run in a newspaper that cared about stuff,

which what a bygone era that we pretended to have. So sad. Another podcast from some SNL, late night comedy guy, not quite on human. Remember me with Robert Smygel and friends, me and hilarious guests from Jim Gaffigan to Bob Odenkirk, to David Letterman, help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an acapella band with their between songs banter. The worst singer in the group?

The worst? Yeah. Me. Is there anything to the idea that because you're from Harvard, you only got in because your parents made a huge donation. To the group. side to the group. The yard birds, right?

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How Hard Can It Be? I cannot believe I'm about to say this out loud in public. Listen to How Hard Can It Be with Diana Maria Riva as part of my Cultura podcast network available on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Another part of this whole conversation is that the thing that's been pissing me off for a while, while now, but especially recently with this increased hysteria around

like, oh, AI is like the big thing is going to happen soon. It's like, people keep saying that it's smart, that it's going to be smarter than humans. Maybe even that it is smarter than humans already. When it's like, there is no, unless I'm missing something, it has not shown any level

of original intelligence. What it can do is that it's just more, very efficiently combing through databases of words and like just information. It's very efficient at that. But that doesn't prove intelligence as far as I'm aware. So whenever people say AI is intelligent, I lose my fucking mind because it's not.

It's just fast. It's a fast database search that like just like pukes back out at you. I do have a counterpoint to that. What is it? Okay. A Matt Schumer specific counter. And when you posted on Blue Sky the day that he was the guy who made that awful video game. This is the future

If you've seen this list as it's the video game thing where it's like it's like two minutes and just it is insane like the U.S. change just Oh yes! Do you remember that? Wait, the game? The game. Yes, yes, yes, yes.

Yeah, it's always, I remember this. And like the guy falls off the bridge and the guy's like really impressed that the AI put him back on a bridge but it's a completely new bridge and a completely new fucking new castle in the town. Lakitu could do that in Mario 64, 30 years ago, dude.

Like, come on. The mystery journal today. Yes, you can vibe code. Here's how to get started. Fucking stop. And it's like, you go and look, it's like, sample task, merge files, extract information, clean and convert files,

fix finicky images, get rid of garbage. Well, I'm fucking reading some. And it's, I just feel like we're in this hysteria mode. We're just every day, there's just this bizarre escalation of like, wow, AI is so powerful. And look, it's replacing workers, but then you click on the article. It's like, well, fields that involve maybe being affected by AI have seen less entry-level hires.

And that will be on the front of the financial times. Like, that's just like, that's what we're doing. Every other era of actual innovation, they'd be like, yeah, you can net, like, you have a, a, a, perhaps not DSLO, but like a very nice camera in a phone. Look at the photos. Look how good the photos are. Wow, this phone can use email now. That's a huge deal.

This is like, yeah, if you squint really hard, it's almost something. I think the thing that gets me is if you, which I'm sure someone has done this, if you take this Schumer article and feed it into an AI and said, hey, can you produce a counter article? It would be equally as compelling. Right, yes. Probably more so. That's an interesting idea, actually. I don't like using AI, but I would love to see that.

I will be honest, I actually did that. Perfect. See? Oh, my God. I did it using his own, his actually his own thing. Let's see. Let's see if I got this. Yeah, because I did it in, I pulled up Hyperite, which is his dog ship, his dogship, his dogship AI startup.

And it basically said, yeah, you know, it's most. just hype. I don't have it in front of me. I'm sorry. I don't, I didn't prepare. I had journalism, Ed. I know. I know. I've already had to defend my... Good thing we have a real journalist, June, here to... Here's me, actually, this is just me straight up complaining, which I know is different to usual. I write like 10 to 15,000 word analyses of things, and I am so detailed and I go through years of earnings and shit. And this guy's like, wow, you know, the computer's just fucking so crazy now, bro. And like, do you read that like AI is learning from itself?

And like, it's amazing like, and look at this. And people are coming themselves reading it. They're like, we need this guy on national television. And then he says, oh, I'm not trying to scare people. Fuck you, you little worm. So, Ed, I do have a question about these AI. Because I don't get these AI startups. I don't know you don't fundamentally understand, but I think you know more than me, which is,

if there's only like eight or nine like models out there, like Deep Seek and Kimmy and what, what the fuck is an AI start? Like they take these models and they, what, give us a prompt beforehand? So it's better organized for the tech. Okay. From the very, from the very lowest AI startup to the most successful ones like any sphere who makes cursor, it is much more complex at the top end, but it is much more complex at the top end. but it is prompt engineering.

It is finding ways to translate what you say to it into a prompt that the model will then use to do something. One of like the eight or nine existing models like Deepseek and Quad and what's. What's really funny with this guy's start of though, Hyperite, which is by a company called Other Side AI, is they raised $2.6 million in, let's see, in November 12, 2020. Then they raised another, let's see, other side, another 2.8 million in March 20203. Where the fuck is the money? Where is it? Where is it? Where did it go? When you used it, did you pay for it? No, God, no. So, yeah, okay. Now, yeah, that's a great question. What the fuck?

No, I truly don't know. And it's a, the current iteration, this is from 2023, the current iteration of hyperite, which is a Chrome extension with personalization and context awareness, launched in early 2022. It's a Chrome extension? This is the fucking guy. This is the guy. And I think it just shows that none of these AI boosters actually believe in anything, because I don't know. When I see someone doing AI criticism and they're just making shit up, I'm like, hey, don't do that. It weakens our argument.

These people are like, yeah, just lying. It's fine. Just, wow, I agree. I saw Alexis O'Henian. talking about it. One of my favorite guys who's just fallen from from Grace, like his big previous investment was this thing called Doodles,

Doodles, that he claims to be bigger. NFT, no, no, no. Yeah, he's like a big NFT guy. No, I feel like... Do we think Doodles is better or worse than Vee Friends? What's Vee Friends? Oh, Gary Vee's thing.

No, no, it's... V Friends is that Gary Vaynerchuk. What is Gary Vaynerchuk, though? If he isn't an AI... He's in AI. He's in AI. I don't even have to look that up. I feel it in my bones.

Yeah. He also has a... He's the one that looks really sick all the time, right? Gary Vee. Yeah. He's not like doing enough in your life or whatever. He sounds like Charlie from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia. Why do these tech people, despite being like a lot of like very health focused to like a degree that is unnerving?

They always look sickly. They always like just very wet and sickly and moist. Well, Brian Johnson, I think, did that on purpose. I think he wants to look like that. Yeah, and he's succeeded. He is really good at looking very sickly and wet. So I think what it is is these people, in my experience, work insane hours. Now, work is a kind of a relative term, but like they're in meetings or dinners or lunches or whatever or just staring at X the Everything app 24-7.

That's hard work. That's a lot, dude. Yeah, no, yeah. And so their eyes... Let's knock that one. No, I mean, like, I can't judge someone for doing that. But, like, they don't have a time when they're sitting around, like, taking in edible and watching YouTube's of manual cats, like palace cats.

Right. They don't have joy in their lives like that. But they are working all the time. So they emerge from that process, tired and wet. Yeah, because they're tired and damp. Just like... Visibly moist. Visibly moist.

Oh, terrifyingly dry. They all look like they have a disease that they have to explain to you that you've never heard of while you just look at your phone and you're like, damn, dude, that's crazy. Yeah, man, that's crazy. Doesn't Jordan Peterson have one of those diseases that's just like sort of low-key fake? Like his daughter's like, yeah, he has this thing and then you look into it and it's just like sort of fake or something like that. It's called ADHD, ADHD, June. Jesus Christ. Okay.

I was under the impression that she had induced it, which is slightly different than faith. Oh, yeah, his cider psychosis. Yeah, yeah. I don't know, he has some weird shit going on. He has a ton of different things happening. It's just no one happy would defend a corporation this much. Like, I say this as reading forums of people arguing about video games for years. Even then, the idea of being so desperate to protect the idea that corporations can

make more money is so very fucking sad. But it's kind of, it's turned into everything now. I mean, I saw on Twitter the other day people gambling on traffic. Why? Why? Why? Why? I don't understand this. What's so awesome? What is the target function? Like, how do you, how does the book verify that you won or lost your bed? It's one of the, I don't think this is like a particularly nuanced bet like it's like it's like people gambling let's see how many cars will go through in a particular period people

people need hobbies man you gotta call the hotline man that's not no I'm quoting will menaca of Charpo here who posted this about a sport where guys just run into each other oh yeah I've seen that and his post was just this is the sport they watch in Robocop And it's like, it's like, it's just robocop stuff now.

It's just prediction markets. I saw, oh, God, we're going to do a prediction market episode. We've got a blog from Barron's coming on. Oh, right. Yeah, it's fucking great. I love prediction markets. I mean, they're getting worse. They're getting so, so bad.

Someone was talking about betting on whether a rocket would explore. Yeah, the new rocket that's, I don't know when it's launching. But it was, yeah, that like someone, I screenshot this reply in particular from Polly Market. let me find it really quick. I swear I just I just did it and I'm going to read it. And this was like a NASA one too, not even like a SpaceX. Yeah. It was disgusting.

Yeah, it's polymarket and all, like, I don't know how long all of that will work. Like how long before that gets outlawed by someone. But I think something that might accelerate that process is someone getting killed because of it. Yeah. Yeah. Like Gary Busey's awful son in contact. is going to blow up that rocket, dude? Yeah.

Yeah. Like, so what I saw, someone said that, sorry to be a scold, but wagering on people dying should not be legal, which I think is the most moral and correct thing in the world. That's fucking crazy. Sorry to be PC here, but I'm going to, I'm going to draw a lot in the sand. That would, yeah, very, very good take person. Yeah, great take.

But then Pollymarket replied to that, saying, to clarify, this was a market about a potential booster stage rupture, a defined hardware failure scenario. about the Orion crew capsule or astronaut safety. This was not a market on crew injury or loss of life. But like, I don't know, man. I feel like if you are gambling on any stage of this sort of exploding a disaster, that's sort of gambling on disaster. We saw that there was gambling and prediction markets about Palisades fire,

how long it was going to last, how far it was going to reach. So, like, the idea that people gamble on disasters, is not like, oh, wow, this took us by surprise that a lot of people thought this would happen. It's been happening for over a year now. People have been gambling on disaster for over a year now. Well, Nick DeVore is the bloke from Barrows, who's going to join us. And as in not today, don't worry. It's just going to punch surprise. Just fucking like a half-time substitution.

He's here right now. He made the point. It's like inevitable that someone uses this to manipulate someone's murder. Like they create a market where someone. says, okay, yeah, you're going to, like, will this person live or die on May 13th? And on some level, it's like, this will encourage someone to get killed. Like, I know this sounds extreme, but Polymark, Nick also made this point where it's like, Polymark it already encourages inside a trading. Yeah, I mean, we saw this with, like, in addition to the Maduro stuff, right? But we saw this with, like, Pam Bondi's press conference times where she got within like 30 seconds

of that, which is like, you could say, The markets hit that really well, but I'm not going to say that. I think that she knew someone was going to make money on the under, right? Well, what was the? It was how long a particular press conference on a particular day would go. And it's like, you know, a couple hours and then some. And she abruptly, like in the middle of like a sentence, she just shut it down 30 seconds within, within 30 seconds of like the timeline to hit the mark.

And so a bunch of people who had, we shouldn't say bet on the under because it's not betting, right? Who had purchased contract shares on the event result of it being less than the certain amount of time made a ton of money on it. Yeah. So like people are already either actively manipulating it or not doing anything to prevent the appearance of manipulating it. Like when, um, um, um, Janus Tettacupo for the Milwaukee Bucks, uh, who's now like on the chair or something for Kalshi. Yeah, he's a chair, a board member of Kalshi now. Yeah.

So like he had like demanded a trade, it sounded like from the Bucks to an organization that will actually win games, which is understandable. Um, and there was this whole trade market in Kalshi had a bunch of different markets for, for, uh, Yannis and where he was going to go and whether or not he was going to stay. and ultimately he didn't get traded, he stayed with the bucks, and everybody who would bet that he was going to stay with the bucks had made a ton of money. And then right after that, he announced he was on the board of Kalshi. And it's like, I don't know that Janus or any of his entourage or whoever put any money on any of these things.

But that sure looks fucking awful, right? They probably did. I would bet that on Kalshi. Yeah, I would imagine. I would take that bet on Kalshi that they did. I just I every

I think that there is goodness in our future and that good things will happen but I think on the way there there are going to be there's going to be

something called the Kalshi murders maybe yeah yeah no for sure there's good like we already we've already

thankfully I've got to use my my term son son of Sam Altman for an AI psychosis murder I mean very sad I mean like no terrible but also like terrible but also like

Nice. Nice. But it's just, it feels like we're in this weird golf where everyone is desperately trying, all the money is trying to pretend that all of this is so fucking sick. When you look at it, even as a booster, it's like, great, coding's faster, I guess. Yay. It's also so expensive. And no one wants to do the math.

Yeah, that's like the other thing about this is like all of the booster arguments for AI coming for different industries and jobs or being able to perform different tasks or whatever, right? All of the arguments about its increasing capability rely on an assumption that the progress, quote unquote progress as measured by their own benchmarks anyway, that it's made so far, will continue at an exponential rate in the same way that we envision technology tends to, which is not really like if you look at the progress of like battery technology, it does not follow the same fucking.

It's just not like that. But the way that people seem to imagine technology is this like in crazy, you know, exponential, it spikes up. And so they put that assumption on AI. Right. Yeah, yeah. Exactly. It's just when you look at the chart, disco sales will go off. Yeah, it'll just double every year.

Yeah. But people will assume this and they'll make the argument that it will without understanding like what it took to get to the shitty place it is now. and how we're at the edge of that. Like we can't actually devote more resources to make these models better. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guide. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.

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Do you have a name suggestion? We're open. Since you guys are middle aged. One erection. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever. you get your podcast. Humor me.

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on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcast. So what's funny is there was, because Matt Hughes, who's my editor, who's long-suffering. Yeah, poor guy. By which I mean, I made him watch a two and a half hour long Dario Amaday interview. Sorry, man. But you found one fascinating quote in here. This is Wario Amaday CEO of Anthropic. Even though a part of my brain.

wonders if it's going to keep growing 10x, I can't buy one trillion dollars a year of compute in 2027. If I'm off by a year in that rate of growth, or if the growth rate is 5x a year instead of 10x a year, then you go bankrupt. Then previously, he said, if my revenue is not one trillion dollars, if it's even 800 billion, there's no force on earth, there's no hedge on earth that could stop me from going bankrupt if I buy that much compute. Why did he say that? Outlaw? Well, no, this interview, by the way, is fucking sick. It's so funny. He uses this example where he says he has, he describes having better than 50% gross margins, but that's because the way he evaluates gross margins is based on how much a model cost to train and how much the model made money. Like how much money? He separates out the training cost and the inference cost. and buckets out future training cost against a different margin. And so, like, if you did Sonnet 4.5 or whatever, the amount of revenue Sonnet 4.5 brings in is greater than the inference plus training cost of Sonnet 4.5.

And he's ignoring the training cost of like 4.6, which is like 10 times larger. And it always needs to be. He's ignoring the reinforcement learning and the updates they have to do, which is also a training cost. But actually, I take it back. Here is how Dario Amidi talks about profitability. Let me quote him here. Profitability is this kind of weird thing in this field. I don't think in this field profitability is actually a measure of spending down versus investing in the business.

I actually think profitability happens when you underestimated the amount of demand you are going to get. And loss happens when you've overestimated the business. amount of demand you were going to get because you're buying the data centers ahead of time. No, Dario. Profitability is when you make more money than you spend. You underestimated the... That's such like a fake smart guy way to say that. Yeah, I like that they can have their own metrics.

You were going to get like, yeah, I guess the price would go up in a world where your supply doesn't meet demand. They said that these are... They unlocked capitalism too and they unlocked a new version of profitability. That's awesome. Yeah. He said that these are stylized fans. What? That is his term.

See, I hate these people. I hate these people so much. If I'm an investor and I read my investment saying stylized facts, I'm stylizing a nine millimeter in my mouth. It's just like, I am, I think things are going to get crazier, not in the actual outcomes, but the things they're going to start promising. Like, I hope Anthropic tries to go public, just so I can see what insane definition of gross margin they have. Because I don't think it's like revenue minus cogs.

I think it's a model plus N plus divided by 70, divided by 7,000 plus 2 million plus 1. And they're like, yep, look, numbers higher than last year. What do you think? And the investors who just are, I assume, catatonic, like their pitch. in their sleep. I just, it's all going to, I don't see how this doesn't come down. I'm just like look at, every time I look at the numbers, I feel crazy. But when I read their definitions for it, they just go, yeah, it just, you know, work out. I, so, so I don't know if you guys have been noticing this, particularly since, also I know you guys like this football, the Super Bowl,

ever since the Super Bowl. Never heard of it. Yeah, brand new to you. But there was a ton of AI generated ads in the Super Bowl. Since then, I've seen three different companies, one of them being liquid death, another being noodles and company, and another one. I'm blanking on what the other one I saw was,

but I saw, this is after the Super Bowl, different companies using AI-generated fucking ads, and they're horrible, they're horrifying, they're awful, they're so bad, they don't make me want

to even look at the brands anymore. And it's like, my theory, I haven't confirmed this, I haven't looked into it, but I'm assuming a lot these AI, generative AI models, these companies, whoever runs it, are striking deals with these companies to do like, hey, like, make this next ad campaign entirely on us, entirely on us.

Because in these ads, they do mention that they're AI generated. I think the noodles and company ones says it like in the corner, it's like AI, there's like a little pun. It's been a minute since I've seen it. But there's like a little pun to be like, oh, it's AI. So I think these are like very obviously ad campaigns to try to be like, hey, why? AI is everywhere, isn't it? It's crazy how everywhere AI is. Everyone loves AI. It's an attempt to just get attention because it's basically

like, look how much this sucks, but it costs us a lot of money. That's explicitly what Liquid Death did in their ad, right? They were like very like, they thought they could kind of get away with being like tongue in cheek about using AI and it like kind of fits their brand image to be kind

of irreverent or whatever. And so then they made it terrifying, horrifying, uncomfortable air. The worst. About, what was it, their energy drink? Wait, wait, wait. It's just one of their drinks. Have you seen the Darren Aronovsky AI generated thing?

Yeah. This day in 1776. So if you haven't heard about this, dear listeners, unbelievably big fucking hack, Darren Aronovsky is making a, he's making a thing called, on this day 1776,

a, is telling the story of America's first meme. didn't learn in the American history. I'm not going to start today. Sure. He handed out some shit to some people, I guess. Just like there's some historian. Let's think it's like, you fucking piece of shit. No, no, no. My understanding of 1776 is that it's a John Boyce piece written.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, with the really long football fields. No, so this movie, it's called On This Day 1776, America's first meme is born. When Thomas Payne arrives from England, he is encouraged by Benjamin Franklin to write what others hesitate to say. the resulting pamphlet sends ripples through from the colonies to the other side of the Atlantic, and what was once unthinkable becomes irrefutable. As in, I don't know, he's a huge fucking hack. There are some really good bits in it, like Thomas Paying the collar of his shirt changes between shots.

They have to constantly cut shots early because the mouth don't move, right? The model breaks down after six seconds or whatever. Yes. It's really expensive to have long shots. There's a great bit in it where they hand out comments. sense and as they hand it out, as they pick it up, it goes from saying America to like, blah, blah, blah. Just like some Cthulhu language, because.

Well, unintentionally kind of apropo, I would say. Yeah, but apparently they're releasing it on Netflix's YouTube. Oh, God. On Netflix's YouTube? Yeah, it's like really like the family. It's like the family guy, Ringo Star thing with like, we'll put the song on the fridge. But I haven't seen more of it. they put out a few bits of it

and then they just stopped releasing it probably because of all the comments that said this looks like dog shit kill yourself it's mostly just that the thing is like you could if it didn't have this insane cost and

an ethical problem associated with it you could convince me that like that one Marvel opening for whatever the fuck it was with the scrolls right where it's unsettling and it changes a little bit every couple of seconds what is this there was like this was a doctor strange it might have been doctor well if it was dr strange that wouldn't have been very helpful i thought it was like there's a marvel tv show

where the opening uh because it's a to show i haven't watched anything after um was it like the scrolls it was secret it was secret invasion yeah it's secret invasion which involves the scrolls right yeah and so the opening for that uh was it with the early version of like AI video generation and it is uncomfortable and it's changing a lot and you can't keep a stable image and it's like well you know there are a bunch of problems both like environmentally

and ethically from a plagiarism standpoint that should stop this from happening but aesthetically this does make sense for this show why the fuck would you need that for Thomas Payne's common set like it's just like a bad aesthetic what the fuck are you doing it was because you're a fucking

Yeah, okay, well, yes. No, that is a good... It's also just, what pride do you have in your work if you put this out? If I was a filmmaker and it looked like this, I would just stop making movie. Like, it's just... It completely devalues whatever catalog he has.

I mean, I like... Yeah, I mean, I actually like some of Ernovsky's stuff, but if you know anything about him at all, like this makes total sense. The guy is just... Has he done anything good after Black Swan? I like course. He did.

I mean, he did the, I haven't seen that. I mean, he did the whale. I haven't seen the whale. I was going to see caught stealing. I just never got around to it. It seemed like it could be good. It's exactly that kind of movie. It's exactly the kind of movie you don't get.

The wrestler came out of after Black Swan. What was that? The wrestler came out of for Black Swan, I think. I never saw that. It doesn't matter. He's got some okay movies, but he also steals. He loves stealing. Like half of his careers.

Well, there you go. Satoshi Khan. Well, there you go. It's very appropriate. I also love the idea that they used AI for the opening of Secret Invasion, which had like Samuel L. Jackson in it. I know. They've got like very expensive actors.

Also, years of footage, they could just cut together without spending any money. I don't know. I think it's the thing where it's like, I've been trying to like figure out exactly why. Because I have felt this and a lot of people have felt that AI just feels bad. And I, I've drilled down, I think, on, on like, as much. as I can because there's so many different parts of it that feel bad, but I feel like there has to be like a source of the bad feeling. And like I think the bad feeling with AI is if you put aside the environmental factors, because of course that is like one of the main ultimate bad things. But the reason why it personally feels bad in the world is it just, it is constantly pushed onto us in a way that it's like, oh, you're going to love this AI. It's going to be here. You're going to not everything's going to be AI. It's going to take your job. You should consult it about. what temperature it is outside. It can tell you if a glove is good for snow.

It's like, it's stuff like that. An actual example. Yeah, yeah. But it's like stuff like that. It feels like it is just like people, the tech world is like you will like AI and you will not complain about it. And if you do, we are the victims. And that's why I think it feels bad.

I can't, like, I actually do think that leads into one of my definite predictions, which is when AI shits itself and dies. Because I think it's going. to end up being on device or really expensive, like expensive in a way that just no sane person would pay for. I can't wait for the article some boosters where it's like, look what you did. Millennials killed it. No, it really, it's going to be like millennials killed. Like, look, we had this amazing thing that sometimes got things right sometimes and cost, it costs 10 dollars to make one dollar. And coders were able to write.

at an indeterminately faster speed. And after you were done ransacking all of gardens, you went to AI. Yeah. Yeah. Like Gary Vee or maybe the other. One of the Garys will have an article about like, oh,

you've never lied before. What's really, it's just, is people without culture or sensuality trying to do both? I think the AI video doesn't look good because it looks, it looks like,

next Netflix movie in that it's got this kind of pallid color palette but also when people look at each other they're not looking in each other's eyes yeah that's all it's just sweating and the shadows are off like they are in a bunch of like Netflix features now like the shadows are really off and it's really off putting and so nothing looks like a movie anymore and AI kind of triples down on that where the lighting is bad the shadows are off but to me the like the issue is AI writing is no yeah grotesquely bad And I say that not because it is, like, I've had writers submit to me pieces that from a technical perspective or worse than if an AI had generated the piece. But, like, it's great. I mean, you're a new writer that might be. Dude, I'm right here. But like, but like the problem is that, like, their writing has, like character, right? and their writing has a distinct voice and it needs to be honed

and it needs to be refined or whatever. But like AI doesn't have character or it doesn't have a voice and they don't mean that because it's a machine. I mean that because I have read thousands and thousands and thousands of words written by AI

and it all sounds the exact fucking same. And so when I see a tweet or I see like that editorial I mentioned from Cleveland.com I just see a tweet or a snippet from an article and I can immediately tell it's AI

because it has this like banal, voiceless kind of... I'll have that same thing at the end, too. Like, imagine just talking... I'm American, so imagine a hamburger. The right article will end by saying, it's not a hamburger. It's a lifestyle.

It always has that one thing at the end that is the ultimate tell. It's not just the food. It's yummy. No, no, yeah. That's something I feel like, yeah. Caleb, you and I have talked a lot about on our show Kill the Computer,

where it's like we've sort of peaked into the world of people dating AI a lot. And whenever we read people talking about or to their AI partner or like you read these conversations and it's I don't see a human quality in this, but yet this person is human. If my partner ever talk to me like that, I would shoot myself tonight. Right. There's no humanity in it. And it's very weird. It's weird to see that people see humanity in it because to me it's, I am very clearly reading generated text from a machine. Yeah, I also like when people like, yeah, I went and talked to chat GPT about my relationship problems. That is just a breakup.

Just you, if you find yourself going to chat GPT to ask it for coaching through a breakup or like, is my partner right here? Just, just fucking. I do love those. I do love those specifically the, it's my, am I in the right, but like not going to read it, but going to chat. the software that will never tell me I'm wrong, by the way. My God, what do you do if it tells you you're wrong? Dude,

the Glazy software. You're like, you're fine. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. You're changing the people that are trying to date the new GPD model where it used to always tell them everything they wanted to hear. Yeah.

There's that one woman that was like, it was like, I need the chat GPDs is something like, I need to be clear, like, I'm not going to rescue you, I'm not going to save you or whatever. She was like upset about it. It's so funny. You're talking about that, the hashtag keep 4-0 of the movement. That I've been digging into those people.

Yeah, so I've been doing enough of that that, like, my phone gives me notifications from these subreddits of people complaining of that chat, GPT. And it's just, it's just like one after another of, like, them threatening to, like, fly a plane into Sam Altman. Yeah, there's one way. it's like a hamster standing outside of a building that says open AI on it that's off. I'm fair it says never 4-0 get. You know how

you know how like a wine mom with like blue hair was one of the people that went to Nick Fuentes' house and like got pepper spray? This is like that version of it. It's like the median average like random person in these AI communities is going to like actually, I probably shouldn't be saying this.

You know what I'm going to say. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We can find, you can bet on that on Polymarket, dude. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, no, check out Sam Aldman on Polymarket. Yeah, and as we wrap up here, I just looked up the hashtag Keep 4-0 thing.

And I'm looking at this image where it's just people running with, like, it looks like a relay race, I guess, that says Keep 4-0, they keep dropping the baton. We just wanted the one that worked. You know, that's how batons worked. But my favorite part of this image, which I'm going to share with all of you,

is the fact that there's a guy with like they've all got helmets for some reason and their arms are going the wrong way. For some reason, one of the helmets just has a mouth on it. And someone has a must, they have an eyebrow by their nose. I also like that in this image, the one that they say is the one that works is the one that's not running in the track. That's awesome. Don't function. You hold them.

This is maybe one of the greatest. greatest posts I've ever seen. One of the greatest AI posts ever. It's so long. It's got every quality of an incredible post that you need here. All right. Let's wrap it there. June, Caleb, where can people find you?

We do. Yeah, you got it. I feel like I was more annoying than you on this episode. No, no. I introed the episode being mean to end. That's what I feel like. That's good forever. But no, I guess I can do it.

I'm bad at pitching. But what I will say, is we, Caleb and I, we do a show called Kill the Computer. It's a show about how the internet sort of influences and, uh, uh, actually, I don't know, this is edited, right? Caleb, how about you do it? Can you help me out of it? I'm bad.

I need to work on my pitches. I need to work on. Don't edit this. No, please. Yeah, I would say it's like, uh, it's a show where we just kind of, um, look at how the internet is internet stuff, internet culture spills out with a real world, how to affect us on personal level. I guess the most high-brown way to say it is just a different of subculture analysis of how different kinds of people use the internet. Absolutely. Hell yeah. And um,

Areef, people can find you where at wide left dot football where I talk about football. Yeah, and I'm just going to say to the people that really didn't enjoy the Super Bowl episode last year. Like, you have any idea how close I was to just only talking about football for like 15, being like, being like, to hear they release Tyreek Hill, like going on? No, no, no, no. We're going to end the episode there. Thank you all for listening to Better Offline. There will be a monologue this week. I assume download the episodes. Read the newsletter. I'm Ed Zittron. And goodbye. Thank you for listening to Better Offline. The editor and composer of the Better Offline The theme song is Mattosowski.

You can check out more of his music and audio projects at Mattisowski.com. M-A-T-T-T-O-S-O-S-K-I dot com. You can email me at E-Z at Better Offline.com or visit Better Offline.com to find more podcast links and, of course, my newsletter. I also really recommend you go to chat. Where's Your Ed dot at to visit the Discord and go to R-S-Lash Better Offline to check out our Reddit. Thank you so much for listening. Better Offline is a production of Cool Zone Media. For more from Cool Zone Media,

visit our website, coolzonemedia.com, or check us out on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman

help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. There are times when the mind becomes a difficult place to live. This is David Eagleman with the Inner Cosmos podcast, and for Mental Health Awareness Month, we'll talk with singer-songwriter Jewel about anxiety.

I started living in my car, and then my car got stolen. I was having panic attack. I was agoraphobic. This is a month of deeply personal and honest conversations about what happens when the brain goes off course. Listen to Inner Cosmos on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everyone, it's Ryder Strong and Will Ferdell from PodMeets World. And now the Pod Meets Twirled podcast.

We're two men who were completely clueless to reality TV, and we're gearing up for the season finale of Survivor. I know we annoyed a lot of our listeners by our... severe lack of survivor knowledge. That is the point of the show. I'm just going to remind you. Again, we are experts. Listen to Pod Meets Twirled on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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