Better Offline - Monologue: The AI Industry Is Lying To You

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Starting point is 00:00:22 All-Zone Media. Hello and welcome to this week's better off-line monologue. I'm your host, Ed Zittron. Now, I'm turning 40 in a month or so, and at four years young, I'm old enough to remember as far back as December 11, 2025, when Disney and OpenAI reached an agreement to bring beloved characters from across Disney's brands to Sora, OpenAI's video platform. As part of the deal, Disney would, and I quote, become a major customer of OpenAI, use its API to build new products, tools and experiences, as well as showing Sora videos in Disney Plus, and deploy chat GPT for its employees. as well as making a $1 billion equity investment in OpenAI. Except now Sora is dead, shot in the head by clammy Sam Altman and OpenAI because it cost $15 million or more to run,

Starting point is 00:01:17 and had everybody making videos of Goofy saying, Gorsh, oh fuck anything that moves, like Frank from Blue Velvet. To be clear, OpenAI is shutting down both Sora, the app, and access to the SORA video model through its API. Framing the changes, focusing the company on business and enterprise customers, which is a euphemism for a product that never had any real business model or product market fit other than burning millions of dollars of computer day and violating copyright. I think it's also completely insane that nobody bothered to check whether Disney had ever invested

Starting point is 00:01:50 or even talked about investing that billion dollars. I went and had a look and there wasn't a damn thing in any of Disney's most recent quarterly or annual reports. I should have checked this to myself, but it's wild that nobody else did either. There are business and tech reporters. There are people that do this full to... I... But I also want to take this moment to say something for the bottom of my heart.

Starting point is 00:02:13 I was right. I was fucking right. I said it back in October. I've said it back in 2024. Sora was never a business. Sora was never replacing anything. Sora was always unreliable because of the hallucination-prone,

Starting point is 00:02:27 large language model bullshit it's built upon. It was never going to work. everyone who said otherwise is a goddamn room, and so many people were wrong. The app that CNBC said was challenging Hollywood and freaking out the movie industry, and the Hollywood reporter would suggest could somehow challenge Pixar, and was Sam Waltman successfully playing Hollywood, and the fucking Ancler, who should be ashamed of themselves, said was Open AI going to war with Hollywood as it shook the industry,

Starting point is 00:02:53 and deadline said made Hollywood sore, and boardroom, said, was in a standoff with Hollywood, and the LA Times said was deepening a battle, between Hollywood and open AI and igniting a firestorm in Hollywood. And Park said had Hollywood panicking. And Techno Lama said was the end of copyright as we know it. And Slate said was a case of AI crushing Hollywood as it. As we've known it, and I swear to God I wrote that right in the script, but I'm keeping going.

Starting point is 00:03:18 Anyway, this thing is completely dead a little more than five months after everybody claimed it was changing everything. You all were wrong. Every single goddamn wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong on the wrong. a sandwich of wrong that you're shoving up your asshole, I'm so fucking tired of this. I cannot express how angry I am. Because it's almost as if everybody making these proclamations was instinctually printing whatever marketing copy had been imagined by the AI labs to promote compute-intensive

Starting point is 00:03:48 vaporware, and absolutely nobody is going to apologize to the people working in the entertainment industry for scaring the fuck out of them with ghost stories for no apparent reason. Every single person who blindly repeated that Sora existed and was changing everything should be forced to apologize to their readers. I cannot express the sheer amount of panic that spread through every single part of the entertainment industry as a result of the specious, poorly founded mythology spread by people that didn't give enough of a shit to understand what was actually going on. Sora too was always an act of desperation, an attempt to create a marketing cycle to prop up a tool

Starting point is 00:04:23 that was burning as much as $15 million a day, the most of the mainstream media bought into because they believe everything Open AI says and are willing to extrapolate the destruction of an entire industry from a fucking facade driven by a clammy man that lies for a living. I am tired of everybody scoffing down the slot from these companies. I'm tired of the majority of reporters not doing the hard work to actually understand what's going on. And good lord, do I not have another example? Well, I do.

Starting point is 00:04:50 Eh, you get what I mean. I spent the last week or so trying to work out how, many actual data centers got built last year, and found that despite somewhere between 190 and 240 gigawatts of supposed capacity being announced, based on my analysis, only 3 gigawatts of IT load, which is the GPUs and the associated hardware that's being turned on, got built in America in 2025. To explain how bad this number, 3 gigawatts of critical IT hardware is about $90 billion per Jerome darling of T.D. Cohen, and Nvidia sold about $135 billion worth of GPUs and hardware, to a America in its last fiscal year. Based on the last quarter of sales, which is in the $62 billion range,

Starting point is 00:05:32 69% of that nice, is America. It now takes about six months to install a single quarter's sales worth of GPUs and associated hardware. Even if you think AI is the biggest and most hugest and most special boy, what's the fucking point of buying these GPUs to four years in advance, because even if it takes six months to install a single quarter's worth of sales, from what I've found, it's actually taking a lot longer in some cases. Jensen Huang is announcing a new GPU every year. By the time you install your blackwells, they'll already have Vera Rubin. By the time they have Vera Rubin, they'll have something else. I don't know, Daphne from Scooby-Doo. They can't, no, these things are, the only cool thing

Starting point is 00:06:11 that Invidia does is choosing the names of people. Anyway, and with every new generation of these GPUs comes new power requirements and rack sizes. While the first generation of Vera Ruben, which is the next gen coming out very soon, will fit into the current Oberon Invidia racks, invidia is already teasing. It's Kiber racks, which will require even more power, even more liquid cooling, which will mean those, ooh, ew, those old stinky dirty blackwells, you're going have to throw them right in the trash. No more blackwell for me, thanks. They've got Vera Rubin in town. Ewe. You're going to make me use Blackwell? How gross. Ew. Jensen, put those stinky blackwells in the toilet. Ew, you couldn't fit in there far too large. I've tried. Yet things only get worse when you look at the actual construction in process.

Starting point is 00:07:00 Per sightland climate, despite over 190 gigawatts of global capacity that's supposedly in process, with 16 gigawatts that's meant to come online this year, only five gigawatts of it is actually under construction. And under construction, can mean everything from a single steel beam to a nearly finished build-out. Walk around London sometime. You should just look at building projects in London or New York. Look at how quickly or not quickly those get built. Oh, I don't know. Go look around Stargate and all the data centers there.

Starting point is 00:07:31 One of the infrastructure people from Open AI was boasting about the Wisconsin Data Center the other day. And he just had a single steel beam. I'm not even fucking with you. It's just one beam. And there were like four guys. There was three guys working on the beam. other guy walking up to it. I love builders. But anyway, in my premium this week, just hit my microphone, just going to keep going. I also dug into most of the major data center projects that

Starting point is 00:07:56 have been announced and in basically every case found that they had either barely broken ground, hadn't actually picked the land yet, or had stalled entirely, as was the case with Fermi's supposed 11 gigawatt data center project in Amarillo, Texas, which abruptly dismissed workers in February after moving forward without permitting or funding necessary to actually build. built the fucking thing. That's a public company, by the way, Fermi. This is Rick Scott. Oh, God.

Starting point is 00:08:22 It's like the avengers of assholes. Despite the many, many statements that AI is inevitable or unstoppable, the reality is that the things aren't getting built. Billions of dollars aren't getting sent. Industries are left undisrupted and the only people actually benefiting are grifters, venture capitalists and banks providing debt to non-existent data center projects. Look, I believe by the end of this era, to quote just Dari, one him and Kakashi, the lone gunman, these guys are two of the best out there and their pseudonymous accounts.

Starting point is 00:08:51 This era will be remembered as the largest waste of capital in history. Most data centers aren't getting built and those that R won't be ready before 2027 at best. Most AI startups make piddly amounts of revenue and burn hundreds of millions of dollars to make single digit millions of dollars of revenue and constantly piss off their users by changing rate limits because every single one is subsidized. Every single one is spending a couple of dollars or more, but dollar of revenue, and nothing is changing and nothing is improving. Fuck off with your whole inference is profitable thing, by the fucking way. To paraphrase my good friend Casey Kagawa, who made this point to me over Signal fairly recently, either inference isn't profitable or API calls it just a big, they're the biggest rip-off ever, that they could be charging even less than that.

Starting point is 00:09:36 Indeed, if inference was so profitable, why are they charging a couple of bucks? for a million dollars worth of input tokens. They should be charging pennies. Why are they charging so much if it's so profitable? Take that, Aetherdits. Anyway, and for the most part, the media has failed to notice all this stuff. I really must be clear how shocking this is. I really have read all over the shop. I still see people making the Amazon Web Services lost a lot of money argument. That's about $38 billion in over a decade that was spent on Amazon Web Services. So walk that one back, well, yeah. I don't know. I still see the same talking points peddled, and it's just ridiculous. Big numbers get quoted without a second thought. Unrealistic or fantastical timelines are published adverbatim, and I'm talking about that, what, $10, 20 billion nebious deal with meta that just data center doesn't exist,

Starting point is 00:10:27 haven't even raised the money. And scrutiny appears, by the way, to only be reserved for haters or skeptics of those who say fuck too much on a podcast. Well, the scrutiny machine over here is just getting started. And you know, you just know that I will be absolutely insufferable when I'm finally proven right. Thank you all for listening. Should have some fun stuff next week. I'm still working on. I love you all. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and

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Starting point is 00:11:33 This week on Crimless, Rory and I welcome a very special guest. When I did a podcast, I wear my sleep mask. I like where this is going. So, if you guys will indulge me. That's right. The incredibly talented and hilarious Will Ferrell on an episode dedicated to crimes committed by people named Will Ferrell. You're good for 300 crimes?

Starting point is 00:11:54 Yeah. We've got two. I'm ready to go right up to present day. Listen to Crimless on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. I actually drop better when I'm high. It heightens my senses. It calms me down. If anything, I'm more careful.

Starting point is 00:12:15 Honestly, it just has. helps me focus. That's probably what the driver who killed a four-year-old told himself. And now he's in prison. You see, no matter what you tell yourself, if you feel different, you drive different. So if you're high, just don't drive. Brought to you by NHTSA and the Ad Council. Therapy is fantastic, but once again, it does not have a monopoly on healing.

Starting point is 00:12:40 That's why I create the resources and that's why I create the community because I really just want you to have more access. On the podcast, cultivating her space, Dr. Dom and Terry Lomax create a space where black women can show up fully and be heard. It's tough because we're suppressing our emotions and so many of us are like high achieving individuals. Listen to cultivating her space on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.

Better Offline - Monologue: The AI Industry Is Lying To You

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