Better Offline - Radio Better Offline: Brian Koppelman, Cherlynn Low & Mike Drucker
Episode Date: July 16, 2025Welcome to Radio Better Offline, a tech talk radio show recorded out of iHeartRadio's studio in New York City. Ed Zitron is joined in studio by actor, writer and producer Brian Koppelman, Engadget Man...aging Editor Cherlynn Low and comedian Mike Drucker to talk about the current state of the tech industry, what AI can actually do, and what the tech industry looks like in the next year. Anthropic and OpenAI Have Begun The Subprime AI Crisishttps://www.wheresyoured.at/anthropic-and-openai-have-begun-the-subprime-ai-crisis/Anthropic Is Bleeding Outhttps://www.wheresyoured.at/anthropic-is-bleeding-out/ Brian Koppelmanhttps://www.instagram.com/briankoppelman/ Mike Druckerhttps://bsky.app/profile/mikedrucker.bsky.socialhttps://mikedrucker.substack.com/Good Game, No Rematch: A Life Made of Video Gameshttps://www.harpercollins.com/products/good-game-no-rematch-mike-drucker?variant=43103018024994https://www.amazon.com/Good-Game-No-Rematch-Video/dp/1335012699https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/good-game-no-rematch-mike-drucker/1145272268 Cherlynn Lowhttps://www.engadget.com/about/editors/cherlynn-low https://bsky.app/profile/cherlynn.bsky.socialhttps://www.instagram.com/cherlynnstagram/ YOU CAN NOW BUY BETTER OFFLINE MERCH! Go to https://cottonbureau.com/people/better-offline and use code FREE99 for free shipping on orders of $99 or more. --- LINKS: https://www.tinyurl.com/betterofflinelinks Newsletter: https://www.wheresyoured.at/ Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/BetterOffline/ Discord: chat.wheresyoured.at Ed's Socials: https://twitter.com/edzitron https://www.instagram.com/edzitron https://bsky.app/profile/edzitron.com https://www.threads.net/@edzitronSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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I'm Ed Zittron. This is better offline
I'm your host buy our merchandise go to my newsletter where's your ed dot out?
Anyway, fuck all that
Brian Copleman is joining us here in the studio
He's the incredible writer-producer and he's in the bear
A flipping bear he's a real-deal actor
He's also the co-creator showrunner and executive producer of Showtime's Billions and
Super Pump, the battle for Uber.
Brian, thank you so much for joining us.
Thrilled to be here with you, man.
We've, of course, got Mike Drucker, the wonderful comedian,
and of course you have a book, don't you, Mike?
Yes, sir.
It's called Good Game, No Rematch.
It's about embarrassing myself with video games
throughout my entire life.
Wonderful.
I'll be embarrassing myself with tech on this show.
Sherlyn Lowe as well joining us for Mangajah.
How are you doing, Sherlin?
I am about a down a protein shake, hopefully, yes.
Yeah, we're just talking about the Ninja Creamy
and all our various slops.
They're great.
Ninja Creamy, I'll tell you, there's no endorsement out
there for any of us. They don't need it. Because people just get these things and they immediately
go to TikTok because they want to share how good they are. Yeah. They're honestly, they're so good.
That's all I full endorse. Full endorsement. This is the ninja creamy show now. I'm going to get,
what's great about this is literally any time I mention any product. I will get an email from someone
being like, here is a post from 2003 from the CEO, in which case they shot a dog. It's like some
insane and he's like, Ed, how dare you bring up? I'm like, I don't know everything. Please help me.
Well, Fair Life's bottles have a lot of thallades in them.
So, you know, that's our thing today.
Yeah, I just eat like too much yoga.
So I want to actually start with a really good thing.
So, Mike, you wrote a really great piece for The Gamer, I think, that went out.
Very recently, it's called it, I'm starting to worry this industry has no respect for the people who work on it.
Why don't you walk us through the article?
Because I think it's a good subject matter.
Sure.
Well, as listeners may or may not know, Microsoft recently laid off about 9,000 people, most of which were in their gaming department.
simultaneously they were claiming that their gaming department's quite profitable and they're making a ton of money
and everything's going well.
I don't know if that's actually true, but they are saying that.
And they've kind of also said that a lot of the money that they were paying these employees isn't about losses.
It's that they want to move this money into AI development.
Did they say that?
Yeah.
That's horrifying.
Yeah, it's kind of in, I mean, they didn't say that word for word, but it was very implied that the budget was, you know, they're more focused.
That was kind of the language.
The language was like, you know, as we restructure, we're more focused on AI going forward.
She's so ironic because, like, video games is one of the first real exposures to AI for most people.
Yeah.
I remember when fear came out.
Anyone remember fit?
Yeah.
It was one of the first real.
It was the first time a guy would, like, shove his head over and look around before just jumping up and getting shot.
Yeah, it's just the reason this really spoke to me, other than fact, it was very well written, is that I feel like this is the central problem with a lot of tech, entertainment, everything right now.
now where it's like the people at top and you make this point well in the article.
Yeah.
The industry is the problem because the industry is not being piloted by the people creating.
Right. Exactly. I mean, you know, and it's a problem that also extends to the, you know, Hollywood,
which I also work in because I'm famous. No, that's not true at all.
But it's this problem that like, you know, a lot of the decision makers are not as close to the product as they used to be.
I mean, I mean, you could even say the same for things like Boeing where, you know, you don't have engineers
running the department anymore, you have business people who've been brought in because they're good
at business.
Jack. Well, Jack Alliance.
Exactly. Exactly. And, you know, these people are far away from the product. They're far away
from the development of it. So they see these, you know, workers as numbers on a spreadsheet.
And for better or worse, video game development is a very long process. It takes a lot of time.
It takes a lot of money. It's getting longer with the AAA horizon as well.
And so it's, you know, very easy for these companies that are looking for a short term, you know,
next financial quarter boost to go, we fired all these people. And this product wasn't going to
come out for two years, so it really doesn't matter. And that's the thing with Microsoft as well.
They've, that's that they've laid off 15,000 people this year as well.
That's nuts. And is the money really even going any? It's just so confusing. But you're seeing it
everywhere with Hollywood, there was the Acme v. Coyote thing. Sorry, Coyote versus Acme thing where they
just like mothballed it. They're releasing it that, but they mothballed a movie to save on taxes.
I feel like that shouldn't be a loophole.
I hate that loophole. I hate the idea of that loophole. I mean, it almost reminds me of that loophole from, and Brian, you could maybe correct me on this. But remember, like, in the 90s, they made a fantastic four film they weren't going to release just so they could maintain rights for it because the rights for it were you have to make a movie to keep the rights. You don't have to release it.
I don't remember that exactly, though. Now, you say it, it rings a bell, but I don't have particulars on it. But I think what you're talking about,
Really the answer, I agree completely as you diagnose it with how depressing it is.
But to me, these things feel like a systems response, like complexity theory.
Yeah.
And system, well, they're like systems responses to what's happening in the world as opposed to feeling like, because I think it's easier for us to look at the human being and go, that motherfucker.
And that may be a motherfucker.
But another possible answer is that from a far remove, like something's happening, right?
And when this thing is happening, it gets into quantum theory, but it is a complexity
system's response to this giant change of artificial intelligence having certain capabilities.
And all of this, you can look at all of it.
And, I mean, we've seen people who had one set of beliefs for so long and on the record in your industry completely switch.
And they may think that's an autonomous decision they're making.
But I have found a little bit of solace by reading about complexity theory because that, for me, offers potentially more not hopeful, but sort of a more complete understanding.
So you're saying like a systemic response to conditions because I don't know about the AI capability side, but the existence of capabilities potentially being there may.
sense in that they're all trying to reconfigure for a future. They don't know if it's actually
there. The generative AI doesn't seem to do it. But the potential of that, the idea of it,
is motivating them so much. Microsoft, of all people as well should know how little money is actually
being made from this, considering out of the 13 billion. But that's it. But yes. But executives
because I've studied these people so much and written about them so much. And I understand
how venal they are and how short term they think at times. But they're also.
I think looking at data that we don't have very often, and they're trying to forecast out a long time.
Why do you think they have data we don't have, though?
Because like with Microsoft, for example, and I have probably studied Satcha Nadella too much at this point.
I really, I learned too much about the growth mindset and Carolyn Dweck and all of that nonsense.
But the data, if the data is there, they're acting very peculiar.
about the data because they're only making $13 billion this year from AI.
10 billion is a R.
I was from open AI burning giraffes and whatever they put into the machine for chat,
GPT.
But it's,
it feels almost like they are reacting to what they hope will happen or what may happen.
I'm just trying to.
The data might just be when,
when everyone reacts to quarterly,
like the problem in our business,
the entertainment thing is that these people are responding to quarterly earnings
calls that they have to make.
And maybe the data isn't about the long term.
possibly, maybe the data is literally
that we don't know that they're looking at
is their little cohort of people
and the exact moment
they can exercise which kinds
of options, some of which they have to declare
and maybe some of which they are somehow
able to flip on a different market.
Well, I mean, that's what Anthropic basically.
Amazon did with Anthropic. They flipped their investment
into a certain kind of thing that they could tax the dug.
Little fuck. I mean, there's no doubt that there's
heartlessness, but I just, because
truckers here, I just want to say, you know,
even in the most depressing times, or
in moments where the technology, the platform seems brutal.
People's humanity can transcend it.
Absolutely.
And I remember in some dark days of Twitter, Drucker was, and it was really amazing, man.
And I remember, you know, you know, I don't know each other well, but we've known each other a long time.
Yeah, like 20 years.
And, yeah, it's true.
And I remember that there were many nights you were like not sleeping that well, or sleeping at the wrong times.
Yeah.
Oh, definitely.
And, like, sleeping during the day, up at night.
But he, I remember him really like, like, very vulnerably talking about sadness and depression and getting people to entrust sharing and him actively trying to like save people.
And a place where like where people were so callous almost by profession on there, by like everything they wanted to do that, right?
Everyone was at home playing Grand Theft Auto, which could you guys fix that and get the next one out?
Everyone's at home playing Grand Theft Auto and being callous.
And he was like literally going, let me explain depression to you and what you can do and what the resources are and why you shouldn't kill yourself.
And which I think is great.
Of course you would lead with empathy on this too and look at these assholes and think about all the engineers.
And it's the right way to process it.
I just think often it's not a binary.
That makes sense.
And that's the thing I've been saying.
Like a lot about the show is, yeah, I'm talking about the pigs and the assholes and the skumbags and all different.
names and the voices I do for them. But it's also about the fact that there is, like, I'm
pissed off, Casey Kigawa, friend of the show, said this to him a lot. It's, I'm broken-hearted
romantic because things like what Mike did, actually one of the reasons I read NGadgett as well is,
it's like, yeah, there are a lot of these financial horrors in there, but there's fun dorky shit
online still. There's still one, like, most of my friends are from the internet. I know it's like,
I'm like the drill quite crying tweet for like being on like, it's like, it's like,
Like everything I got is through emails.
But I still think there is a lot of joy in this.
And I think the central thing about your article that now is just like beneath this capitalism crush is actually some really like wonderful things being built.
There are still wonderful games being built.
Yeah.
There's like an entire economy on Minecraft for better or for worse about selling mods and stuff.
There are people on Roblox.
Other problems with Roblox obviously who are like building games on there and selling them.
There's still some cool shit happening in tech.
Yes.
It's just being interfered with.
because every three months someone gets upset at them.
Or finds a new way to make money off it, which you have to, you know, shove into a new category.
When you're seeing a chase, right?
Yeah, that's what it is right now.
I think that what you're talking about, the, like, macro picture of everyone sort of having that reaction.
And I think we will course correct in time.
I think we're right now at that stage in history where it's not as cut and dried to me as the NFT crypto sort of bubble where, like, it was clearly.
That was the word.
That was criminals.
Because of criminal.
Exactly.
Fucking people over knowing, it, con people.
Right.
And I'd argue that on some level, these are criminals.
There are criminals at play in this scenario right now.
I will say that with what Mike was writing about in your article, the Microsoft thing was
all the more, like, I think when my team saw the news last week, my instant reaction was,
didn't they just ratify a union contract with their first ever in the US too?
Like, to be saying that on one hand, we really care about workers' rights and really want
to protect workers and the other you're like, and those are their quality people, right?
And now we're like, oh, game developers, nah, 9,000 of you can go because AIMPCs are all the rage right now.
And they really make a lot of sense, AIMPCs.
They never said a bad thing, never said anything that didn't make sense.
How was that Invidia demo from last year?
Or was it this year?
I can't remember.
I think they've done two.
Like, every year, Nvidia wheels out a demo, it'd be like, the generative AI, MPCs are here.
And within one day someone has made it Sayasler.
Yeah.
Or like, it's just said something in Spain.
Oh, Tay.
Oh, Tay was the 2016 AI bot that learned from the internet.
To be racist.
Like kind of a proto-mecha Hitler situation.
Oh, that was Grok too.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Was that the Microsoft bat from like years and years ago?
2012 or something or 13.
Oh, my God, I forgot about that.
But the thing is back to Brian's point is that this keeps happening and then we keep course correcting back.
It feels like there is a system's response.
And Ed, I think you're looking for the joy.
I wouldn't use the word intervening or interfering.
I would say it's noise.
And the way for companies and people existing in this industry to deal with that is to focus on what you think is good.
I find the irony in saying that, which I think these tech bros that you're referring to, Brian,
they're also trying to focus on what they think is good.
So they're cutting out noise from their perspective.
And I don't know.
It's that movie that was just released featuring those four dudes in the Mountain Lodge.
Oh, Mountain Head.
Mountain Head, yes.
So it feels like that.
It feels like everyone's got their little bubble, which is also at the same time.
created maybe and supported by tech.
And if we continue to operate in silos,
I don't know, I feel like everything.
But if we only think of those,
and often they are men in those roles,
they're not all, but often they are.
You think of some of those, you said bros,
but if we only reduce them to those guys running around
trying to kill someone in a sauna,
where I think in a way,
it allows, in a way it allows us to like not worry about them.
because we could just mock.
Right. That's fair.
Some of them are smarter, like just raw synthesizing power.
Yeah.
Some of those people, not all of them, they're smarter than everyone in this building combined.
A couple of them.
And I'm not saying that that makes them.
Good or anything.
In any way good.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Or in any way good for now because even if you say, like I agree with you that some of them may believe that they're doing this.
That they're doing good, right?
But if they're thinking in a thousand-year chunks, that's really bad for people.
Yuval said this, and Yuval, I think, is amazing.
And he said, well, the problem is historians like me, he goes, you may look at it now.
He was on a podcast.
He said, you may look at it now.
And say, but those things worked out.
Okay, look where we are.
But as a historian, I have to look at the cost of human life that happened for all the little intervals to get from there to here.
And that's really what you guys are just talking about.
Rightly so is all the devastation in the wake.
But can I just ask because you might be so jaded?
But do you not think AI is like mind-bogglingly great at times?
I can see the balance.
I think Ed's like far off.
You don't.
Wait, you really, I think it's like the single, I think it's the single greatest invention in my life.
What is, what is your favorite thing that AI has done?
I think the ability to have super high level conversations about really esoteric, about systems theory.
Complexity theory.
How do you know it's correct in them?
Well, you can, well, you have to do a bit of work, right?
I don't want to talk to something that I have to verify constantly.
I talk to people.
Well, you have to do that with people too, Ed.
To some extent.
You can't trust everything I say.
How do you feel about the automobile?
Or is the horse-drawn carriage still your thing?
Dang.
No, I'm just saying.
No, I'm wondering what the point is.
Mike looks very uneasy right now.
The point.
No, I just have jokes in my head.
No, no, I'm sure you got rid.
Because I think you can decry the industry and the way people are using it.
And I guarantee, I'm pretty sure I was reading a liaison of Yudkowski before anyone in this room.
I mean, how to actually change your mind is a book that I was obsessed to give it as Christmas gifts.
I can't take Yadowski serious.
I just, it's like.
Gotta take him serious. I mean, you have to take, one has to take that guy's brain.
Seriously, everything you guys are worried about, he called out 15 years ago in detail.
Okay. I mean, like, here's the thing.
The automobile is not a comparison because we knew we had to go forward side to side and everything like that.
Like, we had an actual use case for that.
With generative AI, the way that these conversations happen, and large language models can be conversing with documents.
It's one of the only use cases that is actually remotely useful because you can actually verify based on the parts of the document.
Having a conversation with one of these, fine.
It's a thing.
I'm not amazed by it because there have been chatbots doing this with KMS since like, what, 2013, 2014.
And the Eliza effect goes back to the 60s.
Yeah.
And Eliza, even then there's Karen Howe's Empire of AI is a great thing about Eliza.
The creator was just like, why is everyone so fucking impressed?
But they're just like, really just like, what the fuck is this?
I think what it is is I am just not that impressed by it based on the larger discussion.
Everyone acts like this is the fucking future, and it just feels like a growth of the past.
What chat GPT has become, for better or for worse, is what Google could have potentially been.
It's insane that attention...
I agree with you, but like, okay, I got a tick bite.
Okay.
And you can literally, the second you get a tick bite, everybody says, antibiotics, you got to go.
If you can't find the thing, I got a picture, I put it on there.
The AI was immediately able to, and yes, I could verify it afterwards, because I called...
The idea was able to say, this is the kind of tick it is.
This is the area you're in.
This kind of tick, you don't need antibiotics.
You're not going to get Lyme disease.
Here's why.
Sent it to my doctor who, that's feedback.
And they agreed that'll be harder to do on Google.
Why didn't you send it to your doctor before you asked him?
Well, he doesn't, his job isn't to like identify what tick it is.
Oh, sorry.
I misunderstood what you said.
Yeah, I want more clarity on the doctor thing.
I raised my hand as you were talking because I'm like, did you trust the chat GPT answer and leave it at that?
No, then I took that, when it said that, then I searched for what it said and compared, and it was right.
Okay.
So, it was a dog tick, not a deer tick.
I had a curiosity, and Ed, you might be able to answer this question.
Is that, and I don't actually know the answer, is that iterative AI or is that generative AI?
So we're using chat GPT.
It's a mix.
It's a mix.
So that would be generative.
Genitive.
Okay.
And so that would still be, that is, and by the way, sounds like a use case.
It is the growth of, sorry, what we can say.
No, I was going to say, I think a version of Google could have done that for you in the past, too, before ChadGPT.
What Chad GPT, the generative side of it is providing is the LLM, the natural language interface,
about the polling a lot of different sources of data and putting that together for you.
That is Chad GPD.
You could have done that with Google, or I think there were apps, right, that you could do a photo sort of recognition.
For a while on Google.
Yeah, and to my knowledge that parts of Google and Google health researchers with their AI divisions were working on apps that could identify different things like skin,
thing. So like, is that a bug bite or is that Exama kind of thing through the pixel phones?
I don't think they've ever broadly released it, but they were experimenting way before
chat GPT was even a thing. I would argue that I think the LLM portion of this is more about
how it converses with you and how it like understands what you're actually concerned about.
So if you didn't give it the exact words of look up this thing and should I see a doctor,
even if you didn't input the see a doctor request, it might, you know, divine that that's
what you really want. And this is the thing. Like chat GPT, I don't think would have been a big deal if
Google had actually innovated in search at all.
If they have...
Instead of something adds into it?
Google search has been the same for like 15, 20 years, except worse.
What you were describing that, valid.
It's inference, basically.
It's infers the understanding from the image and all this and then spits out an answer.
It's a use case.
I think that in the way you used it, that was responsible.
The problem is at scale, that is not going to work out so great because...
Oh, I believe you know way more about this than I.
No, I'm going to lose your experience.
I'm genuinely glad you brought this up because it's like, but what about that is extrapolating out to the greater AI replacing jobs thing?
Because that's where my principal problem is.
People are taking what Google should have been in 2017 and turned it into this is going to replace half of workers.
A quote from Dario Amadee that was fucking made up, which he said off the top of his head.
Sorry, just getting made.
Wario himself.
Mario Amadee.
I think what you're all right.
also bringing up Brian is that there is this marketing, I guess, problem with AI, which is that
like AI has existed for a very long time. And the current version that everyone's really obsessed
with is Gen. A.I. And generative AI is all about like what it can generate for you. Using large
language models, using art, like creating art, creating videos, all of that stuff is this current
like iteration of AI we're all talking about. But the previous stuff has existed before. And this is all
like just more of the same. I think that's why so many of us in the industry are so frustrated with
it because there's a misconception. There's also this idea that,
The jobs that it's trying to replace are in that field of coming up with art, music, and words that are not jobs that, A, pay well to begin with, but B, like, are the parts of our life that we want it replaced, right?
We want it.
When I talk about Yodkowski, the reason I do is that it freaks is that he was somebody who, he's right on your side in the way.
I mean, his thing always was, this is not going to be a net good for society.
That's not even where my argument is.
And I mean, I'm sure you remember when Astro Teller wrote exegesis.
I remember reading that book, like, the day it came out, and it really did freak me out about what was possible.
Now, we're not even there yet, right?
It even isn't where that, that version of AI was.
And Yudowski, but Yudowski's, he's.
Yudkowski, sorry.
So find him quite distasteful.
But on top of that, he's a fucking AGI domer.
And he's saying, he's just, yeah, sure, if a frog had, but a frog had wings that could fly.
It's like, yeah, if the computer wakes up and does this, this could be scary.
He's one of the few people that seems to actually think about what AGI could do.
but also we're so far more off from it
that I can't see him as anything but a grifter
because all he is doing is grifted
it's just... He's been on it long before there was grifted
and it. He was on it as a non-profit.
No, he...
Non-profit griff succeeds.
No, I'm like, look at the open AI.
Think about what I've written.
You think I don't know a non-profit interest.
Yeah, you're in the fuck's a matter with you.
You were looking at yourself right.
I'm in my domain next thing.
Brian one.
Yeah.
But he's, I have a different view.
Now, I'm not saying all the same.
opinions are correct. What I'm saying is that that somebody who flagged a bunch of these potential
issues a long time ago. And of course it shouldn't report. It's horrible that these people in charge
are so willing to sluff off human beings. The moment they think there's this much of an edge,
but also because of what I study in life, I can't be so. We've all of us who write about this
stuff in fiction, right? You do it because, okay, you get to have to report on something. You have to,
I can take sort of like my partner and I can take what's in there and try to dramatize what might happen.
And always would try to point out exactly that these motherfuckers will do all this shit.
It's not surprising to me. It's horrific but not surprising.
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What bothers me as well with it?
And I think you're completely right.
And also, like, I'm not completely saying everything you're saying is wrong.
Like, you actually have well read on this, which is nice because a lot of people who mention the AGI stuff don't read anything.
But I think the things as well is so much about this AI AGI thing is not about what it can actually do.
Yeah.
The best fiction about AGI.
I, girlfriend Sarah, Sarah, showed me the Kill Switch, X-Files episode.
Fantastic AGI episode.
It's scary because it's not about the people making it.
It's about the computer itself and the intentions spilling into it.
a lot of what the AGI discussion now is, and it will automate jobs, and that's the last time I'm going to think about it before I say, here's Anthropic.
Kevin Rose.
And I think what it is is there are discussions to be had around what this stuff could do.
If AI could do the things that they're saying it could do, if it could replace jobs, it would be doing it.
But also, it would actually require a change in society.
It's almost as if they're like they want all of the profits from AI, all of the exposure and the ability to lay people off without actually doing any.
thing to earn it. And it comes back to what you've said about the people running this shit aren't even trying to build AI. They're not Mark Zuckerberg's building a Manhattan size data center to build super intelligence. I wonder though when you say, and you guys, I'll speak to this, I wonder when you when when you talk about that Google could have done this or should have done this. And then it's a great point that you made about that it is the way that it communicates. Because what I wonder is you're all expert. You're all native.
early adopters native to not only the internet but native to tech and so sure you could you
have used Al de Vista to do oh yeah Jeeves for fuck's sake right it's a baby but I'm saying you could
have used all that but for generations of people who aren't literate and millions
billions of people exactly even if that was possible through Google image search but
you ever try Google image watch people try
to do a Google image searching.
I agree.
I'm thinking this is all making it for people friendly to them, as you said, easy for them.
And I wonder if that's the...
That's exactly what I'm saying.
That's why people like chat GPT.
It's not because it's this amazing product.
It's because it does what people go to Google.
That's hard.
But communicating well in an inviting, seductive way is very challenging.
Yes.
Yeah.
So for tech to people to do that to regular people,
is the amazing thing.
It's almost like you're taking that for granted.
The attention, the 2017 attention is all you need paper was a Google scientist.
I just looked this up.
I thought it was several.
But it's like Nome Shazir.
They ended up paying like $2 billion for character A just to bring him back.
Google had this technology.
And had this movement just been, we're going to make inference of meaning better exactly
what you're talking about, it would not be this big story.
The thing is they need it to be what you were describing our use cases, good, bad, whatever.
They are things that people use it for.
The actual things they're describing on, as a PhD level intelligence, it's going to solve physics.
It's like, no, it's not.
But if they say, what if Google search worked?
They can't make a trussillion dollar.
They can't be like, this is going to be everything.
We're going to build data centers.
It's just because what you're describing Brian is, that's the most evil thing in the world.
To go back to Mike Drucker.
Yeah.
You really should be looking at the world.
Because I think what, I think in all these things, what I've learned,
learned, just being curious, is to look at the incentives.
Yes, that's what I've been saying.
And Google was de-incentivized, disincentivized to make search work for the user.
Yeah.
Because of the profit agenda, right?
You said, oh, these things should make a fucking profit?
But here's the thing.
In a weird way, them not making a profit is better for the users.
Yes.
And Google wasn't, but I'm sure it's all in the Google paper that nobody's fucking reading.
I'm talking about the 1994 one.
But I'm talking about for the user, I'm trying to, you're raising these amazing questions,
but if I try to think about how to answer them, it's that these companies are like in the early
days of social media and all this stuff.
In the beginning, they try to super serve the user to get you addicted to it so that then they can,
but the incentive structure is what you've got to look at.
And obviously, Microsoft's incentive structure has been locked in for a very long time.
And that is for the people who have the most stock in Microsoft to make the most market one.
That's the incentive structure.
Google, too, to an extent.
friend. That's why they had that stuff for that long, but they never, because they never
found a way to integrate it into all the different parts of its businesses that matter, the ads part,
the search parts.
It's also their monopoly.
They have a monopoly.
They have no reason to be.
But I don't know if you remember this Google I.O. 2017, 2018, even 2019, when they first
showed KitchenSink, which was their version of chat GPC, but it wasn't as conversational.
It was, you can ask this app to come up with ways to learn about a new hobby or to plan a thing
for you.
Before ChadGPC even was known widely to everyone.
And I think it was,
open AI wasn't really even a thing.
And it just wasn't a chat interface.
And I think to Brian's point,
the incentive that chat GPT has brought to people.
And to my parents,
who by the way,
discovered chat GPT last year,
very annoying to me.
But it's like,
it's so much easier.
It brings them into technology
in a way that technology used to be
kind of looking down on people
for not knowing things.
And you deal,
you do away with that with the chat bot.
My parents not only like feel so hip now,
which sorry,
mom and dad,
you're not.
But also, like, there's people who seek comfort in the companionship brought on by AI chatbots like chat.
They are amazingly hip.
They are amazingly hip.
They are amazing.
They dance at their age and I love that.
That's actually love it.
But the thing is, if you look at the use of Gen AI from the last, and I think I talked about this on that Kevin Roos episode over here on, but the use of chatchee, AI services has changed.
It used to be like very interest-based and very search base, but it's now companionship-based as the top few users.
And that's why people are drawn to it.
And I think that one last point that came up really when I was listening to you talk at is that like the incentive for them to push towards like, yes, let's go towards AGI.
It's not just like laying off people.
It's also who can get there first.
It's the race of like the tech AI ego thing, the tech CEO ego thing.
And then from the ego standpoint, then they push down to profit.
But so many businesses are like, but so many businesses are already.
sort of the industries are already acting in bad faith.
Oh, yes.
Yeah.
Like, okay, look at the, here's it.
Here's it.
You want to, I'll give you not a, like a real industry that I think will be transformed
by it and I think that's not a bad thing is like money management.
Money management, which is a billion.
With generative AI?
AI already can replace.
We need to delineate.
We need to delineate between AI though.
But, well, you can do that.
But, well, you can do that.
No, no, I'm saying.
That whole business is about a front face.
Money management, I'm not talking about the high net worth, I'm saying in general, people who use for their retirement accounts, money managers.
Well, front, huge advisor.
All that stuff.
But within those companies, they're front-facing language of humans who are just trying to keep you invested.
They don't know.
That stuff, they are not offering value really, and they're taking this big percentage from regular people trying to save for their retirement.
And they're bleeding off money.
And in the end, they're going.
I was listening to like...
No, I'm smiling because you were right already.
This was the 2015 through 2020 wealth...
No, I know that all that stuff,
but I'm talking about even now like big banks.
Like the big banks, I'm not talking about their AI front.
I'm saying that I was listening to a talk given by Josh Brown and one of his partners, I think.
And he was talking about how essentially all of the back end of all that stuff,
meaning you might still have a person talking to the user,
but everything else is going to be done by...
I just...
I think it's Michael Battenick from his company.
Because here's the thing with that is,
from my knowledge of basically financial regulation,
they don't want an LLM touching much of this.
There's a lot of stuff within financial research happening now with General Vaya.
There's a ton of companies doing like insanely high compute burn
to do these massive kind of like evaluations of stuff.
I don't know if anyone wants to touch the money with LLMs and they've actually been quite resistant to it.
Partly because they don't know how they work.
Like, they truly don't know.
Oh, I know the black box thing.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
And so it's like a lot of these things also, when are they going to happen though?
Because they've been saying this for two years.
But do you think there's a scenario, but do you think there's a scenario where this this goes away?
I don't think it goes.
I don't think it's going to blow.
No, no, no.
I don't think it's going to reveal itself as, as, as.
fraudulent for what it...
I'll explain.
I'll explain.
No, no.
I think you're going to see what...
Calling my shot.
So, I believe that OpenAI will as an ongoing concern eventually go into nothingness.
Matt Hughes, my editor believes they'll become a patent show.
I actually think it's an amazing thing.
I think that what we experience of large language models will vastly pull back.
I think there will be rate limits that you...
What do you mean pullback?
As in there'll be rate limits on KETGBT.
People are going to be horrifyingly sad because those companions...
Their companions are going to go away.
They're not going to go away.
They're not going to go away.
They're just going to be much, much, much more limited.
And I think that everything we see today, the kind of, and you look in any of the reds behind any of the serious like GPDs, they're all kind of saying like, yeah, we know that the abundance, the free ride is over.
So, no, it's not going to go away, but you're not going to hear about it constantly.
And everything you use today is going to be so severely rate limited or dead.
Those companies that are charging for generative AI things, beneath the surface, all of the API rates behind these companies.
So the things that you plug in to run the models are vastly subsidized by big tech and by the companies.
So Alta Vista goes away and but Google takes over.
Well, Google Gemini exists, but the Gemini requests perhaps don't hit the LLM as much.
They have.
I'm using it as a parallel.
Yeah, yeah.
I'm saying the parallel, right?
You're kind of saying there's consolidation that's going to happen.
But it won't be this big thing where you hear about all the time.
I think you were going to.
Of course it'll just be the back end of lots of stuff.
It will be, oh no, it would just be something that sits there.
No, it's a smaller in scale, right?
It's also not good as a back end.
Large language models are not good back at.
I understand.
They're good at talking to you.
They're good at talking.
And the one thing we're...
They can divine stuff as well.
One thing we're kind of circling on the consumer level that we're not talking about is it's still a novelty.
Now, I think it's going to be continued to be used.
I do think that people are going to continue to make lists and scheduling and...
Summurize my...
Summurize my thing or, like, you know, what's a good vacation?
And there are on-device models that are able to do that.
Right.
I just think that right now it's such a big deal that everyone's using it because it's cool, because they, you know,
your parents hear about it.
because you're told you should use it for work.
Yep.
And I do think that it'll stick around.
I do think there will be a contraction in the sense that, you know, it'll be a cool thing.
But I think in 15 years it's no longer going to be as funny to produce like a picture of a pig with like Mickey Mouse's head and three boobs.
And I feel like now that's a big, big novelty.
Some comedy is timeless.
But like, but I just don't imagine that in like 15 years having the same novelty as it does.
15 years.
Or five years, 10 years.
If you take away all the headlines, if you take away all of the money,
and you actually look at what's there.
It is everything you've...
What you're describing is probably the most useful thing.
It's like, do I know this?
Okay, this seems plausible.
I'm going to double check it.
It's kind of like what Encarter could have been.
I don't even mean that sarcastically.
I, as a very cool child, I was very cool.
Would sit on Encater for hours reading stuff
because it was kind of good.
Wow, you have access to everything.
And I think human beings are curious.
So, of course, they're going to talk to it if it talks back.
Yeah.
I just think right now there is no business model.
That's the biggest one.
The biggest one is there really is no business model.
ads do not work.
Ads are not going.
How do you put, you inject ads within an LLM.
Look at what happened with GROC.
GROC happened because they tried to make a, let's make it just,
how we crank up this racism dial?
And like, how do we mess with this system prompt?
But the thing is, those subtle changes for even advertising will be bad.
Plexity's been talking about doing ads for a fucking year,
not heard much of that, our event.
And it's like, on some level, regardless of how useful it is,
the economics do not make sense.
then nothing like an Uber.
Uber was such.
Yes, you will know.
Uber was a complete fucking, and it still barely makes sense.
They're raising another $1.2 billion.
But you can at least tell someone exactly what Uber is and why you'd use it.
And it's just kind of chugging along through necessity.
I don't know how necessary chat GPT is.
A large language model, a Google Gemini, and Google is claiming they're doing efficiency stuff,
that could last.
I think it will be heavily rate limited.
I'm certain you are all right about the business models and the viability of this from a business standpoint.
You know so much more than I do.
I'm learning and it's fascinating.
As a user of it who is not on the inside of the business, my prediction is you're dead wrong.
No, Brian.
It's going to become the dominant thing in most of society in lots of ways.
I think here's three.
People are going to use it and be, it's going to be part of them like William Gibson predicted a really long time ago.
Like, I think that it's fine, that I think it's bad at creative things, the thing people think it's good at.
I don't, it's bad at that.
I don't think it can write a story yet.
None of them can convincingly write a story like drug or could.
Like, there's lots of that stuff that's not there yet.
I have no idea.
Again, you all know way better than I do the science behind it.
But you're asking about working out before.
You could, there are 95% of people who are trainers can't do as good a job of programming.
And you could play different AIs against each other.
You're good at asking questions.
That's also because 90% of them are influencers with no serious background.
Yes, but I'm saying even if you talk to sign.
But because you can show programming, it can track for it can just, now you may, you may, and I'm sure you're correct.
That's not the AI doing it.
It's other people could have, but the way I can program and interact with you and allow you to catch up.
If someone asks me, all day long, people are asking me, wait, look, the question about programming.
Well, I can't program for you.
I don't know you well enough.
But if we talk generally about what your goals are, I could definitely talk to chat GPT or Claude and build something that you could then iterate.
That is a search engine.
We're describing the iterations of search.
Yeah.
But it's packaged in this way now.
Go ahead.
The thing that three of us are going to tell you are at different levels.
I think Ed's coming to you at the business model, the very like micro level.
I'm sure.
And sure.
And yeah, that's the way kind of how it's got to play out financially.
Rutgers come in with the medium level of the use case and everything.
And I'm going to tell you that at the top level, I'll draw another parallel for you, which is two things come to mind.
One is how Bitcoin and crypto, very exciting.
Everyone found a novelty factor in it ran for everyone wanted to make NFTs and crypto a thing.
And then I was kind of dialed back down to a less fever pitch and more of a regular body temperature pitch.
The macro metaphorical level is what I'm going to say.
I think AI will dial back down to that normal regulatory sort of body.
temperature and then to draw another parallel Tinder was everyone was making their app the
Tinder of this Tinder of real estate and what you're describing is like an interface that works
really well for something like a use case the chat gbt model is an interface that works really well for
question and answers seeking help assisting you with things that might never go away that might
just get built into every app as access to LLMs becomes easier for developers they'll build it into
the Bank of America chatbot they'll build it into everything and so I think that's where it
balances out eventually over time, maybe through rate limits. I don't know that that's going to be
the way. I think some consolidation might happen. Yeah, but rate limits on actually accessing it regularly.
The question back and forth for the people who are using chatGBT, right? Yeah, yeah. I think that will come
too, but I think eventually we're talking like five years with druggers. I think with the rate
limits maybe in the short term, but I think even longer term than that, we're seeing that might
eventually go away. Those apps may not even exist standalone. Yeah. And I think I actually don't know
if I fully disagree with you about everything you're saying,
it's just that the scale of what we're talking about might be different.
Everyone having a large language model to access,
just saying that this is the future we're talking about.
Doesn't really change that much.
I don't, like the economics effect,
I know I'm going to do the business bullshit thing I do,
but it's,
the economic effects are quite limited right now.
Now, if you're saying everyone will have a large language model,
it'll be hamstrung in some way or what have you,
fine, I can buy that.
For good or for bad, I could see that happening.
I just don't think that it goes much further than what we see today.
And I think what you're describing is what Google search should have become.
And that was what, I remember when Bard came out, I wrote about this, I was kind of like,
surely what chat GPT is is what search was meant to be, right?
As the Cone Brothers said, you know, sure, if a if a frog, you know, had wings,
had wings, it wouldn't bump its ass hopping.
You know what I mean?
And so.
And so.
And I'll say that.
that, you know, I think that even as it's completely absorbed into our culture,
we're still going to be on the phone listening to an AI list medical options and going,
human, human, human, operator, human.
Like, I don't think that's going away.
All green, 771.
Right.
Yeah, like, I don't think, like, I do think that people are going to be like, yeah, okay,
I'll talk you through my problems until I hit this part with my insurance.
And I just want a human right, right, right now.
And I don't think that's going away.
No, not at all.
I'm really, I actually think we're really more on the same page than it may even seem,
because it's like my whole thing.
thing is what you're describing is a use case. I think there are real harms, but I think we
kind of agree where the dangers would be. My thing is that people are extrapolating from that
to this insane level. Like this whole, they keep talking about agents everywhere. You've got
Matthew McConaig. But agents is kind of what I'm describing, which is like every service has
its own chatbot, more or less. They're just using a different word for it. Yeah. And I mean,
that's kind of what like Bank of America already has a chat bot. And it does not work. It's the
What you use when you're trying to search for a transaction?
What Mike's talking about for sure?
The human, of course we all do that.
I guess I think it'll fool us better.
That's fair. That's fair.
I don't think they're right.
Oh, it's already fooled a lot of people very well.
It's fooled people into killing themselves.
Well, that's tell you that old character AI, of course.
It's so cool that Google paid $2 billion for them.
I'm not making an argument that this is a beneficent force.
No, no, no, no, no.
No, I wasn't accusing you of doing it.
I in any way, shape, or form.
Like I, like I said, I've been reading about this.
for so long. But I do think that to just sort of, that's why I brought up the horse and buggy,
because no, the people who wanted the horses, right, they were right about a lot of stuff,
about the harms that would do. Yeah, the pollution. The pollution, the noise, the way it would
take us away from our communities. Like, they were right about so much. What they were wrong
about was the inevitable march of the future and time. That's, I think, the same. Before coming to
this podcast, I was reading Mike your piece, and I was like, oh, yeah. Are we like in the,
industrial revolution forgetting about the agricultural revolution for getting all the
revolutions that came we are because I've seen it all from when I was I remember
when a well showed up and CompuServe and I remember mess I was invited on a message board
when I was 14 I'm 59 oh yeah this guy I knew had a message board in New York
and had to dial up and I mean so I've seen this all I'm an early adapter stuff
even though I'm an old dude I'm but not from a tech side from a user I was I was
only used that as an 11 year old this is this single as a just as a user meaning I'm
I don't know how it works or why.
Yeah.
But I can explain to you why people are so fascinated.
And NFTs, I was on me.
You could find the old tweets going,
did you buy one?
Buy one.
Are you fucking mad?
Hell yeah.
I don't know what kind of earlier.
Studying con people is like literally like why I started doing what I do.
But like, no, of course I recognize that as a con from the moment one.
But this doesn't be like a con to you.
But even when you say the Bitcoin thing, it's at 120 today.
Yeah, I know.
Okay.
So Bitcoin won.
There is actual value.
Yeah.
NFTs were all.
Always huckstered devices to separate suckers from their money.
And look, theater Veblen said, and David Mamet quotes it all the time,
every profession is a conspiracy against the laity.
Every profession fucks over the regular.
Yes.
I think that's super fair.
And there's no doubt about that.
Of course, you always have to look.
Yeah, Mamet was ahead of that by 20 years.
But you got to look at it.
And not me, Mamet.
And then me.
But so you got to just understand.
that it is very effective for people.
I'm just trying to bridge from what you're describing to the automobile, which changed everything.
I don't think large language models, I think they're going to create harms.
I think there are going to be things that change.
But it's like what happens now, because what we have right now is basically what we've
had for two years.
If you want to email me about reasoning, please do.
I will email as much as you want.
But the thing is, you look at this and people are going, okay, and then this will have
And it's like that thing that with an LLM that goes and does something, really basic thing,
an LLM that you tell to go and do a thing online, they are bad, bad at it.
There was a Salesforce study that says like 35% they, like it was like 30 something percent they fail.
Or that was the only, the only ones they completed.
I don't think I've never asked an AI to do a task for me.
I'm saying I've never asked it to do one of those agent kind of functions.
I wouldn't.
They don't work with you.
I wouldn't.
Well, I don't think it's there yet.
I mean, for again, as a user.
But research, I've had good research done.
Really?
Well, I mean, AI and Gen AI has done a lot of good stuff in the medical fields too, right?
CRISPR and all of that stuff.
There's been a lot of discoveries about what sort of mutations you find in certain types of cancer that, like, I don't think that's good.
If I want to study an industry to consider writing about it, I can ask, you have to ask good questions.
I mean, it's like in anything else, right?
I can ask really good questions of an AI and send it, you know, for the $200 a month model,
where they'll do that research thing.
And if I ask it to do research and then you can, it'll, like, it will come back.
And maybe you have to send it back three times.
But the speed and accurate.
Yeah, but you can very quickly verify a lot of it.
Because you can, like the book list thing that I can't fathom being that irresponsible,
like those idiots in the paper.
But you literally, all you have to say to them is when it presents any kind of list,
all you say to it is go verify that list please how do you know what right is or verify it myself
I mean I would verify it myself right at some point but you go verify the list it immediately goes you're
right I was hallucinating these three books don't exist that happens then you go do it one more time
and make sure that these titles are available in these stores then they'll give you links and then
you can go look at so it's about the prompt thing that you're doing and I think sometimes we're
splitting here though is you're both of you are extraordinarily intelligent people who have done a lot of
research in your life. So you know how to do those states. You know how to be like, I need to
follow this up. I need to search this, make sure. I do think that one of the problems, again,
coming from like the low level consumer level is it's often being marketed as an impartial
referral. Oh, you're totally right. Mike, you're totally right. It's not that. You cannot. You'll be
fucked so bad. But most people don't interact with it like you do is what I'm saying. Well, but,
but they can. And I agree with you. They can. I think it's almost, or, but it's, they don't lead them to
do that. It's not like they have things that guide them.
Right. This is really interesting here
what you're saying about this. Yeah. Well, I mean, I think
that, you know, when you see people, and we all
saw the Grock Nazi thing, but if you
see people on Twitter, they don't
use, they, I would say fewer
use it to do Nazi shit
as much as they go, hey, Grock, is this
true? Is this true? Is this true?
And depending on what finger is on which
scale, the answer is different each time.
But I think that there's a lot of people. I mean, I did, I haven't
been on Twitter since October.
whatever that date is. So I don't know. But I would never, of course, you can't just say,
let's go to the AI as though that's a final arbiter. And certainly not today. But it's being
position has that. I think that's my problem is it's being positioned that way. And I think
you're absolutely right. I think you're absolutely right how useful it is, especially if you have
the skill to use it. I think the problem is it is being marketed as this is a catch-all solution.
This is a panacea to your knowledge problems. And, you know what I mean?
Of course, there's a dumbing down.
Well, it is like believing rock star games that they're going to get fucking
Grant their daughter out, right?
I mean, it's no different.
No, I mean, I literally would.
Look at the actuarial table.
If you had to build one on my life expectancy verse when the next fucking iteration of GTA,
I might lose.
But here's the thing.
Here's the thing that with you describing the research, it isn't an invalid use case.
What you're describing is how people use Google search to do research.
They pull up a bunch of stuff.
They go through them.
they look at it and they go, is this right?
But that's a slog.
It is a slog.
Why?
You're describing it's a slug.
No, no, it is not.
It's a pleasure.
It's not.
No, you've got to be honest about it.
It is a total pleasure not as well.
I should be clear.
I'm also, I have actually used these things.
I've genuinely tried because I'm, I love my dude dad to Mugismos.
And I've really, I've sat down and being like, what I'm missing?
You just became Paul McCartney.
That was a true Paul McCartney moment.
He has not accepted my invite for the show, though.
No, he had not invited back.
My mom would be so happy.
No, it's just
I really feel like
that this thing keeps coming back to the
you are using it in a totally fine way.
I'm mad at the fact that everyone's like,
and this is the only thing you'll need,
you can fully trust this,
this is the best thing,
the information's the best,
you're looking at it and going,
this is a way of digging through information
and passing stuff
and having a conversation with the inflation in front of it.
In the broad society.
Yes, the lowest,
that's what's fucking up.
But unfortunately, yes, you're right,
our educational system is really fucked up,
disadvantaged people have no chance to make
Mike went to a school that allowed people
from disparate areas to get we got to
yeah we got to reform the education system
we do so that everyone has a fair shot
I agree but there's a very basic let's do it
yeah but there's actually a very basic thing we don't have to
what's that there should be regulation that says that these things
need big fucking disclaimers that say hey check everything
they won't do it because the incentives we discussed
but that would actually be I think all the stealing
is also bad I think the environmental damage is bad
but I think we agree on that yeah it's just
Safeguards are always great.
But they aren't any.
But then you've got to figure out who decides what those safeguards are.
And who's productive, like you talk to Bill Gurley, he'll talk about regulatory creep, right?
So where do you want to?
I'm just saying you.
No, no, no.
I agree with you.
He's a smart person and he's, you know, thoughtful about this stuff.
And so how do you want to do you want the, I mean, with this, you want the current government deciding?
I think, um, guard rails.
Who, who's to do?
But here's a very basic guard row.
It's just a disclaimer that says everything with generative of AI's blah, blah, blah.
That you cannot.
Some of them have it now.
but they're all in preview, right?
And that's probably what they're couching against.
They do say right on, um,
yeah,
GBT Gemini.
Every single time.
Yeah,
it says it every single time.
Really?
Every single time.
And Apple intelligence.
I saw it today, actually, for sure.
Yeah,
because they,
they have been criticized,
but to Brian's larger point,
there are guard rules put in place
into a lot of these.
I'm most familiar with the Gemini's
and the Apple intelligence
and the Amazon ones of the world.
And they,
their guard rolls are around like,
um,
C-SAM, right,
child sexual abuse material,
or like,
not presenting people,
faces or like trying to avoid photorealism because then you get very deceptive very quickly.
You don't see any of that in GROC, maybe, it depends.
I just looked.
I know, I mean, I just used.
Which one, GPT?
I don't use tragedy.
It does really, it does.
But I'm not going to turn on my phone here.
I'm like, I'm just like, here's the thing.
If they're there sometimes and not others, that's also bad.
Yeah, that's like it's incan, it's because when you've got people who are killing themselves,
people that are having, um, it was, Miles Clee, I think it was a Rolling Stone wrote
this piece about people having psychotic reactions.
Yeah, I agree this administration.
I've probably done one regulating this.
But the answer being let's regulate nothing is terrifying.
Well, it's really, but it is confusing because if you think about, let's say Facebook.
Right.
There's no doubt that Facebook was used in Myanmar to foment a genocide.
People were warned inside, who knows where it got to.
This is very well documented.
Yeah.
How could one?
After the fact, it's, okay, we know.
It's really hard to sort of figure out these use cases.
And then should all social media have gone away?
Like, some people think it should be all social media.
I feel better about that if Andrew Bosworth, the CTO.
I know who that is.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
I mostly say it for the list.
Yeah.
Because also the yellow.
No, but if I know, I'm a Luddike.
Well, that's good.
If I know, you're listeners, no.
He did an internal letter in 2016, 2017, where he said that all things were justified
for growth.
including a terror attack, and that's kind of how they approach everything.
No, it was monstrous.
Like, when I saw that Myanmar thing, it made me say, like, I should never use Facebook.
I mean, I think that is as bad a thing as I've ever seen.
I mean, literally.
But this is still an example, though.
And Meta's LLM allows children, and Jeff Hawwitz report this at the journal,
allowed children to, like, have sexual conversations with John Sina, very peculiar.
Like, there was, like, a chapbot.
It was a chapbot.
It was a chapbot.
clear it was not John Sina.
You said with John Sina.
I was saying it wasn't a voice.
It was just John Sina.
He was going to jail for 100 years.
On the bear, I was in a scene with John.
A lovely guy and he definitely wasn't doing that.
No, no, he seems like it.
I'm saying it was the voice of John Sina.
You're allowed to have pito conversations with.
But again, it's this lack of restriction because no particular technology is evil at its core.
That's fair.
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I think what Brian was saying, and I don't know if I misinterpreting you, but like, there is some fatigue at seeing these things through all the pharmaceutical warnings.
You get the end of every commercial, every warning you're going to get from Gemini from now, and every Apple intelligence warning that's like notification summaries can be wrong sometimes.
Like sometimes you just, I see them on my phone.
Where are you seeing the notification boy?
No, no, no, no, I believe you.
It's just, I'm like, I'm saying is that what I'm saying is that why I brought up Myanmar is no, we as a society, unfortunately.
Unfortunately, we default to the convenient, fun, easy.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's that.
What we all should have done when Facebook, and I'm not even blaming exactly, like, you can blame Baz, I don't know enough to blame anybody there.
We know that the technology itself was used by these generals in Myanmar.
Right.
Yes.
And nobody took pause.
Like, like, I think very few people left Facebook as a result of that.
I think so I just don't know what the fix is for these problems because we gravitate like bees to honey.
But there are also like tools that can be used as weapons, and it depends on the perpetrator and the person using these, right? And it's an age-old question. Again, coming back to the industrial and agricultural revolution, this can be just a tool for hacking a plant off of its husk, or it can be used as a murder weapon. Back to AI, it can be very informative, very helpful for people who need companionship. It can be used like people with semi-scam texts all the time. The technology keeps keeping up with them and filtering them out, so they keep changing their spam. Bad actors are going to bad act.
That's just the way it's going to be.
What can we do?
We can.
I stop using Facebook.
I try to educate my parents every single time they use a GPT answer with me.
I'm like, mom and dad, stop using that.
But then they just keep using it because they're just sort of person that's susceptible to this.
They will just use it because it's convenience.
And they don't want to do the extra work of maybe the Google search method, which you were saying, Ed.
Or they just want something that's easy and they don't care if they get it wrong.
Yeah.
I guess I love the idea of you using your brains to figure out.
out how to make these things safer and more useful as you agitate within the industry.
I think trying to find a way for them to disappear seems impossible.
It's impossible.
And again, like, NFTs were obviously going to disappear.
But the underlying Bitcoin thing wasn't because there's too much.
Well, the moment this election happened, the moment this election happened, Bitcoin was going to 200.
Bitcoin was going because.
And what sucks about that is we could have stopped crypto.
I was writing about it at the time.
How are you going to stop crypto?
By informing people about the inherently criminal aspect that underlies everything,
the fact that tether is more than likely in the hands of multiple different crew.
I tried and I failed.
And you know what?
It sucks.
But you try.
You can put ideas out there.
You can see if people pick them up.
And I mean, that's kind of what you do there.
In the case of crypto, it's such a weird thing as well because it's there, but it isn't.
It doesn't really do anything other than fund things or be funded.
and it just kind of exists where it's just like they kind of they don't even i kind of respect the
fact they don't even try and be literally you're talking the charlie munger and warren buffett's book
that's what they always i know but that's what they always said don't because of that that
that's their whole point that it to forget the blockchain it doesn't really do you know
yeah oh yeah and do anything and the thing is though there was real money in that which there
isn't in generative fair and i think that what's funny is this convenience thing you're talking
about may actually be there down for because those 500 million weekly active
chat DPT users the cost of them billions of dollars, it's probably all going to...
Fascinating.
It's fascinating.
Yeah, that is interesting.
They mean their popularity is going to destroy those companies, not not the underlying
tech, but that the companies themselves.
That's fascinating.
I'm really like I'm saying, you're teaching me something.
I had no idea about that.
I'll explain it very simply, which is Open AI last year spent $9 billion to lose $5 billion.
Anthropics spent $5.3 billion.
No, sorry, they look, they spent like nine.
7, 8, they spent billions to lose 5.3 billion dollars, of which a chunk of that was just given to Amazon for servers.
It's very fucking weird.
They lose money.
Their conversion rate on chat GPD is awful.
So 500 million, I think they have 15.5, 60 million paying subscribers.
They don't publish monthly active users, because if they did, you could do the math and see it's trash.
And on top of that, they just can't find a way to make money.
They lose so much money.
So what's more than likely is, yeah, these companies might die.
LLMs will hang around because there are use cases.
And Google is, like, Jeff Dean over at Google is one of the least evil tech people.
There are actually people there who like the tech and give a shit about it.
And there's more efficiency stuff coming out of Google's models.
The thing is, what we see today, I do not believe, is I think the most annoying scenario is going to be
the longest life large language model with unlimited access is going to be on fucking meta,
because of their unrestricted tripe that's on every fucking app.
But I think things like chat GPT are just going to be limited.
You may still have people who use them in the way with the gym thing.
But it's interesting what you're saying about maybe an answer and you think about the Industrial Revolution is eventually is that people are going to have to be trained on instead of firing 9,000 people, train 9,000 people.
Become prompt engineers.
Yeah.
Yeah, become prompt engineers.
And the fact that they didn't.
I mean, look, no one is less surprised than me by incentive structures making these motherfuckers act.
act like evil,
it's completely non-caring, you know,
monsters. But if they can be
convinced that there's profit motive
in training people, there's no profits.
No, they can be convinced of it.
No, but I must be clear, though.
But in all these businesses, there was no profit
until there was profit. Nothing even close.
How long did it take Amazon to become profitable?
Amazon took about 11 years with AWS, but AWS
was a concern that reduced costs for Amazon itself
to run their website. But in 2000,
a lot of people thought it was never going to become profitable, right?
Yeah, but that's not the same logic.
I'm just saying it is the wrong.
It is.
No, but the economics are completely, it is.
It's completely different economics.
Can I ask, though, Brian, how much would you pay to keep using chat GPT a month?
I'm a bad.
I'm older and I've done well.
And I've, do you know what I'm saying?
Do you pay anything right now, I guess?
I pay $200 a month.
200 a month.
Okay.
So Google one's like $250 a month.
Why do you pay $200 a lot?
For the research, because for the supercharged research.
You can get the research on the 20 bucks a month one, though.
Not the same level of the region.
That's an interesting.
interesting thing to point out too is that you're getting better quality by paying for a higher
period. Yes, I'm aware of it. It's on fair. No, but seriously, is there a quality difference?
Yeah, if you look at it, we could, yeah, I mean, oh my God. But Mike's saying this is to see how they
they say there's a quality. They would tell you there is an edit in the amount of, whatever the user, what is it, what is the rate?
So they sell you shit product to make you buy the less shit product? Well, I don't know if they
sell you shit product, but you're saying the use rate. I, someone told me, someone I trust a lot, a person who's tech savvy was like, this is when that happened, they used it for a while. And a couple of months,
ago, I was in a meeting with someone and they were like, if I was going to tell you to spend money
on anything, spend $200 a month a month. You want to have something crazy that? Yes. They lose money on
every $200 a month customer. I believe you because I'm using, because when they do that search,
you're saying it's burning so much. But that's the thing. Yeah. How likely do you think that that will
continue? Because the deep research stuff. Is they start charging you more or are you going to quit, I guess.
Yes, well, of course there's a number very soon. I'm already at the, yeah, you're very high end of it.
Yeah. For sure, double this. I would.
I would not pay double.
Right.
Exactly.
I guarantee.
I would not pay.
And I will be honest, and this is not even me being like a hate or anything.
It may not be that cheap.
Because right now, I just did a big store in my newsletter, please paper.
500 a month.
For a 200 a month power user who's already losing, pardon me, losing the money, they lose so much money on them that it's like $400,500,000 a month.
Claude code right now, which is slightly different because the way they do context stuff.
Nevertheless, on the $200,000 a month.
Max user on Claude, they could be losing, they had someone I saw on Twitter, they spent
$10,000 in compute on a 200-month subscription.
These are the majority of power users.
Power users go nuts, as you well know.
This is why I'm so pushy on the economics, because what we are seeing today, it's like
if every Uber weighed 40,000 pounds and the fuel was giraffe blood.
It was just like this insane economic, and I sound like I'm kidding, but the economics are
completely bonkers.
As much use as you're getting today, I just don't know how practically they'll provide that.
And they might be cheaper models, but the cheaper models might not be able to do.
I assume you use 03.
Yeah, I've got to get, of course.
Yeah, and sometimes it still takes such a long time.
And that's the thing.
To even have a conversation.
And that's the thing.
How much of this is sustainable long term.
And I know the business stuff is annoying because you still have your experience, but you like.
No, it's not annoying.
It's fascinating.
I'm fascinated by the whole thing.
This is great.
It's just the long term.
here, and I'm talking long term as in 18 months, is I don't know if we will have deep research
at any price point approaching the one we'll have in that period.
Well, the deep research is the only reason anyone should pay the money.
And that's the thing, though.
The only reason that people should pay is a thing that is not sustainable and has no problem.
So when you talk about how we bring this towards like an AWS situation, AWS's lack of profitability
was built on infrastructure expansion.
It was because they were building the rails of cloud writ large.
It was never in the billions and billions a year with no, there is no path to profitability here.
There was one model that Open AI said they were going to deliver to Open Air Microsoft in 2023 called Arachis.
And they failed to do it.
They have yet to discover a, or make, because it may not be mathematically possible, a really good large language model that can do the kind of reasoning like that that would be reliable and have the web search tool.
And I want to say you do have to, when you talk about prompts, sorry, I was thinking about this when I was learning about complexity theory.
I read this book by guy named Neil Thies that I love.
He's a professor at NYU.
And I'm not good at physics.
And I really want to understand quantum physics.
And so I would ask questions, right?
Do research on this.
And then find a way to be able to explain it.
So go read these books.
Go find documentaries.
And then I just quickly realized at some point that the AI hadn't, it was clear to me it hadn't.
read something.
Because it doesn't have access to it.
But I could figure it out.
It hadn't.
And I just said like, did you really look at that video?
Like it was video.
I go, did you really look at that video?
That speech?
And then it immediately went, no, you got me there.
I didn't look at the speech, but I'm going to go now find it a different way.
So you do, and you do have to be.
Vigilant.
Acculturated to having those kinds of crazy.
Like you have to maybe have advanced degrees or have trained yourself.
So I'm not, this is fascinating, right?
Because I take for granted the steps I,
I take for granted the steps I've taken to make my way through the world.
Yes.
And like the way that I would interrogate something like that to get to an answer that's useful.
Yeah.
As opposed to maybe my parents would be like, oh, okay, you watched that video.
Oh, okay, yeah, okay, right.
That's your answer, right.
And they might get wrong information from it.
I can't argue with that.
You're right about it.
And I think that a lot of this, a grand theory of this comes down to, I think people have a lot of questions and not a lot of questions.
and not a lot of people to ask them to,
questions about their life, how they're feeling.
That's the loneliness thing.
I think it starts with the medical side where it's quite hard to ask a doctor or question in any country.
It's hard to know whether they're,
and also doctors regularly make you feel annoying.
I'm not talking about my doctor.
He loves me.
But if you can't go to a doctor regularly with little questions,
they don't have the time because they must maximize profits or they are busy,
one of the two.
Yeah.
And ultimately, we are sitting there going,
I've got this weird rash or like I might leg itched in this place in the same day, three days running.
What could that mean?
And you can't really Google that.
It's just cancer.
It's your dying.
But you can't really Google that.
But chat GPT, whatever, can do an impressive impression of it.
Or in your case, Brian, and I think this is reasonable, lead you in a direction towards like a Mayo Clinic article about a particular thing.
Something could raise to your doctor.
That makes sense.
People are lonely.
People just have weird questions.
And I think that there is partially a bad side where it's.
It's like everyone wants everything immediately.
We must have everything we want immediately.
But also, people are curious and we are more disconnected as people.
We are more decentralized as people.
We don't meet people.
We are by at scale overworked, underpaid.
So we don't have the time to be generous with our time.
Yeah.
I'll give you one other use case though.
Because, and it goes to the question of training, training, but you could use this for,
you said your parents dance or whatever.
So I'll tell you that if you, if you.
are somebody who is all used like deadlifting or squatting with a barbell as an example.
If I put a 30 second clip into chat GPT and I say, please watch this, tell me, is this form
at risk of injury? How should I modify it? Is it good enough? What do you think about the load
of this weight? The answer it will give is, and I have checked it against like the world,
the answer it will give is outstanding. And that's, and how would you get that in another
way. I don't think there is, and
that's a very small example.
Well, that's different than search.
That is, though. No, that's...
It's searching using a video.
No, it's not.
The matching is a bit less
sophisticated in the regular Google search.
No, I'm saying that, no, that is the...
It's not merely matching it against a perceived
perfect form. It's looking at your femur.
Literally, it'll go with your femur size, this is the
kind of squat that you could do if I...
Low bar versus high bar. Here's why,
here's what this looks like. You're over... I'm agreeing
with you. I'm just saying that search as a
term has grown to look at this image and compare it to these sources, which is theoretically
what's such.
But then in the good language, right?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Oh, no.
It's the natural language.
It's plain how to fix my, how to fix it.
But I do worry if you ask a bad question, like if you not ask a bad question,
phrase a question incorrect.
Sure.
And I'm not saying you.
If one phrases, let's say they ask a fitness question, but they phrase it a little bit
weird and the answer they get is harmful.
It almost, I'm worried about things.
situations like that. And also it feels like we're removing an element of human
responsibility or accountability where it's like, well, the machine answered weird
rather than like a doctor answered weird. And I think that lots of corporations
love that. They love that because it's like, if I if my AI accidentally denies your
insurance, it was the AI. It wasn't us. It's the algorithm. Yeah. It's it's the same algorithmic
pass on thing. But I think you're right in the that is kind of cool. I also have used
03 because I do pay for this.
I'm not a baseless hater.
I did ask, what's the distance
between this bottom of this photo frame
and the floor? And it spent
10 minutes to give me a completely
insanely wrong answer. They're not good with numbers.
Oh, fascinating. See, the other day in this
example I just gave you, it said,
I can't see. Which is good. I was great.
They should do that. That was great.
03. Both of you using the same model. I was using
03 on chap GPD plus
though. So now I, now
Try the pro.
No, I don't know how feel about giving clammy-sami-sami 200 bucks.
Just try it for a month and see what it does.
Yeah, I don't.
You can write it off.
I don't want to write.
I already gave 200 bucks to Wario Am a day.
No, because I would love you to do that and then call me and say it's the same.
No, no.
I'm trying the same result.
No, I'm going to do this now.
I'm now actually really curious.
I would love you to say to me, dude, that's just spent 20 bucks, the same?
That would be great news.
Then you could save your 180 a month.
Yeah, that'd be great news, please.
I am what Mike was bringing up.
I thought was going to be similar to the point I had been mulling over when you were talking about the training stuff,
which is that we already deal with due to like, you know, capitalism, lower barriers to entry,
an influx of individuals who may not actually be fully equipped for the jobs they purport to do.
So whether it be journalists like myself or like, again, fitness influencers or trainers that say they have whatever types of physical health degrees that are just the result of a 10-hour course online, that sort of thing.
we're already dealing with the like quality dilution of like information coming from sources like that.
To throw AI into the mix feels like making it even worse, like harder than ever to tell what the truth is.
And I don't know about you all, but I find myself gaslighting myself all the time now, regardless of like my own life, whether it's the truth in the world, whether I'm being too sympathetic to multiple different perspectives.
I don't know what the truth is anymore.
I can't tell you what the cold, hard, scientific truth of anything ever is.
And that's where it's led me.
But you also have to be willing.
I agree with that's a brilliant point.
I think one of the things I would say to people, if someone asked me, how do you, how should you communicate?
I would say, and it's really painful for people, like, because I've seen them talk online about what they love about conversing with AI.
You've got to say, click every toggle that says be mean.
Tell me the truth.
Don't tell me I'm smart.
Yeah.
Like you got to instruct it to really be withholding in that way if you want to actually to
actually engage so that so that you're not getting gas lit because yes I agree that
then this is dangerous the default setting is to gaslight you you got to actually go I don't need to
hear like glaze you I think the young people glaze you sure we took up one time before we won
and you didn't hear the producer just laugh out loud at that one can we talk about just one
I think they used to say glaze but can we just talk about one um positive purely positive
tech thing that happened the last week sure please July 4th okay who who who who
Who's on TikTok and knows all about the antipasto party in Texas?
The biggest story on TikTok.
Was it the one that one person went to?
Yeah, okay.
It's the greatest thing.
Please run those service.
Okay, they're in Texas.
These people have a July 4th party.
There's a woman.
She's just moved there recently.
Her kid becomes friends with someone else's kid.
And this woman, Sarah, is the parent of one boy, says,
come with me over to these people party.
These people's party.
Woman A makes the Apatio.
of all antipastos salad.
The greatest salad you've ever seen in your life goes to their house.
Yeah.
And these people are like, who's this stranger in our house?
And they kick her out, even though she brought this incredible thing.
She goes home and gets on TikTok and she's crying.
And she's like, I brought this salad and they kicked me out of their house.
And the entire internet.
And her and loves her so much.
And it's like, it's an incredible story.
Everybody I know is like, everybody of all ages, like nieces and nephews of mine, and then older, people older than me are all sending.
And it's an amazing thing.
It's a huge community has rallied to hate these fucking people and to love her and her homemade mozzarella and homegrown tomatoes that she brought to their house.
It's like scaling local news.
I saw something else.
A summary of it?
No, I saw something else altogether.
It's really worth fun.
But like Reddit does things like that too.
And that's the thing, Reddit, like this is, I like.
ending this in a positive note.
That's a lovely.
Reddit does.
You're going to say something.
Well, yeah, no, community and social forums like that.
That's what the internet is great for.
And not a lot of AI is present and a lot of that.
And it's almost, Reddit, especially right now, has got good because it isn't.
The CEO keeps thinking of shoving it places.
But even like the better offline, Reddit, we've got nearly 9,000 of you now.
Hey, guys.
But it's great because one of my biggest stories I wrote recently was on cursor and them falling apart.
And it was because someone on the forum was just like looking through their stuff.
Like, hey, you, and everyone had this full conversation about it.
You've got these people out there in this morass of fake stuff or generated stuff or SEO stuff.
You've got genuine people.
There is still a joy to all of this crap.
I love blue sky as well, but Reddit has really just, I'm shocked.
I spent a lot of time on Reddit.
I read it.
I'm shocked.
And a lot of group someone ever goes to one?
Oh, sure.
Yeah, of course.
You got to pick your own.
I mean, no, but I'm saying, you know, like, but.
but there are where people have a hobby or a thing like whether it's music you know you're like
I take stuff yeah it's great and you must love the like the Claude reddit because they hate
every day someone's like why does Claude suck today and you must love that I love R slash Google yes
I like I like I like I like SASS because it's all just people like writing SASS come no it's
no no no you're thinking of a different SaaS one I'm talking SAAAS so for as a service yeah I'm a loser
Send me whatever.
No, you watch people being like,
my app has been up for six months
since made $7.
Should I continue?
And a bunch of people are like, yes.
And those subscribe.
No, I kind of love them.
Yeah.
You've got these niches.
But I hate to say, I do need to call this episode tonight.
Brian, where can people find you?
Oh, Instagram.
Yes.
We'll have a link to there as well.
Yeah.
You can find me on Instagram at Mike Drucker is dead
and on Blue Sky at Mike Drucker.
And by Good Game No Rematch,
It is a book that's available digital, hardcover or audio with the audio read by myself.
Hell yeah.
Sherlin.
I'm at Engadja.com or on threads at Sherlin's Instagram, C-E-R-L-I-N-S-T-H-R-E-M.
Type in Google, the man who destroyed Google Search.
That's me.
I'm Ed Zichron.
Thank you so much for listening.
As ever, this is recorded in the wonderful New York studio in I-HartRadio.
Danil, of course, is our producer.
Thank you so much.
Danil.
Thank you all for listening.
Thank you for listening to Better Offline.
The editor and composer of the Better Offline theme song is Mattersowski.
You can check out more of his music and audio projects at Mattisowski.com.
You can email me at E-Z at Better Offline.com or visit Better Offline.com to find more podcast links and, of course, my newsletter.
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