Big Ideas Lab - Day in a Life of Deterrence

Episode Date: October 8, 2024

Strategic deterrence is the foundation of U.S. national defense, but it’s only as strong as the nuclear triad that supports it.Think of the nuclear triad—land, sea and air—as a three-legged stool that holds up the entire strategy. For this "stool" to remain steady, the weapons, systems and devices within each leg must be credible.But what does it take to ensure that credibility? And what role do the teams at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory play in keeping the U.S. secure? Tune in to find out.--- Big Ideas Lab is a Mission.org original series. Executive Produced and Written by Lacey Peace. Sound Design, Music Edit and Mix by Daniel Brunelle. Story Editing by Daniel Brunelle. Audio Engineering and Editing by Matthew Powell. Narrated by Matthew Powell. Video Production by Levi Hanusch. Guests featured in this episode (in order of appearance): Michael Zika, Principal Associate Deputy Director for Strategic Deterrence at Lawrence Livermore National LaboratoryDr. Marvin Adams, Deputy Administrator for Defense Programs at the National Nuclear Security AdministrationBrad Wallin, Deputy Director for Strategic Deterrence at Lawrence Livermore National LaboratoryJong Oliver, Senior Advisor and Chief of Staff of LLNL’s Strategic Deterrence DirectorateBrought to you in partnership with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. 

Imagine standing in a missile silo, a cavernous, echoing chamber deep underground. It's not really all that different than things that you've seen in the movies. In the center of the silo stands an intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, more than 70 feet tall and weighing more than 80,000 pounds. The air is thick with the smell of metal and fuel, and the missile's engines, capable of generating more than 200,000 pounds of thrust, looms above. Our land-based deterrent is ballistic missiles. These are massive rockets.

You need to have a massive rocket to escape the gravity of the Earth and get it into a ballistic missile trajectory. The ground trembles as the countdown reaches its final moments. The missile defies gravity, rising with force, cutting through the atmosphere with precision. The rocket ascends in a display of power and engineering mastery, each stage shedding weight, pushing further into the void. The reentry body is quite compact, particularly when you compare it against that massive rocket.

It's a cone. You've seen Hollywood portrayals of these things. And the nuclear weapon system lives within that cone that undergoes reentry. In the silence of space, the missile glides effortlessly, following a path etched by physics and human ingenuity. The midcourse phase feels almost serene, a momentary calm before the storm. It's hard to conceptualize the destructive power that lives within such a small volume. As the missile reaches its peak, there's a pause. Then with precision, the reentry vehicles are deployed. The descent is rapid, the reentry vehicles slicing through the atmosphere wrapped in a fiery shroud.

It's a testament to human capability that we can harness such power with such accuracy. The capabilities of these systems are mind-boggling in terms of what the destructive power they have is, which is why we maintain them. They are the ultimate deterrent to our adversaries. But power alone is not enough. Belief in the system's reliability is crucial. Our deterrent only works if other people, not just us, but others around the world, believe that it's credible. They have to believe that if the warheads were called on, that they would actually perform as designed and as we say they would. When we say that our warheads will work, everyone should believe that.

That is the definition of strategic deterrence. And ultimately, that rests on the credibility of our scientists and our engineers. Including the scientists, engineers, technicians, and staff of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Welcome to the Big Ideas Lab, your weekly exploration inside Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Hear untold stories, meet boundary-pushing pioneers, and get unparalleled access inside the gates. From national security challenges to computing revolutions, discover the innovations that are shaping tomorrow, today. Last episode, we explored how strategic deterrence underpins our national defense strategy. A land of peace, but even peace has its price. Specifically, we emphasized the importance of the nuclear deterrent as the foundation of this strategy. One means of preserving that peace.

To recap, deterrence is all about convincing potential adversaries that attacking the United States is a bad idea because the cost would far outweigh any possible gains. At the heart of this deterrent strategy is the nuclear triad. The nuclear triad is defined as land, sea, and air. Imagine the nuclear triad as the three-legged stool that keeps our deterrent strategy stable. The land leg. That certain deterrent, Minuteman, a comprehensive weapon system. Are intercontinental ballistic missiles that we have in missile silos across different states in the U.S.? That's Brad Walleen, the deputy director for strategic deterrence at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

These missiles are ready to launch at a moment's notice, providing a quick and powerful response if needed. Next, we have the sea leg. A fleet that will never attack first, concealed beneath the sea. This consists of ballistic missile submarines that remain hidden beneath the ocean's surface, making them incredibly difficult to detect and destroy. The sea leg are warheads that we have on nuclear submarines. We call those submarine-launched ballistic missiles, or SLBMs. Their stealth ensures that we always have a secure second-strike capability, no matter what.

...sufficient powers of retaliation to discourage any aggressor from launching an attack upon our security. Finally, there's the air leg. Strategic air command. Which includes our strategic bombers. The policy of deterrence. These bombers can be launched and then recalled if necessary, offering flexibility and a visible show of strength. The air leg are warheads that we have that are delivered from planes,

either gravity bombs, which are dropped on a target, or cruise missiles, which can be launched and directed at a target. Deploying planes and submarines is one thing, but their effectiveness ultimately depends on the power and reliability of the explosives they carry. The true value of the nuclear triad lies in the system's ability to deliver powerful weapons when it matters most. And in the 1960s, it seemed that moment might have arrived as the Iron Curtain descended across Europe.

Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States. Good evening. I return from Europe to report on my meeting with Premier Khrushchev. He intends to bring to an end our legal rights to be in West Berlin. That we cannot permit. As tensions between the U.S. and the Soviet Union continued to rise in post-war Europe, the U.S. military began looking for new ways to dissuade their adversary from seeking another war. We are clear about what must be done, and we intend to do it.

In the mid-1950s, the United States initiated the development of the Polaris missile under the Fleet Ballistic Missile Program. This missile would be the first ever submarine-launched ballistic missile, SLBM. But to create it, they'd need a new kind of nuclear warhead. One that was powerful, yet compact enough to fit on and launch from a submarine. It was something that had never been done before. And the U.S. Navy tasked Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory with the challenge. Using restraint, in our words, as well as our weapons. Our job at Lawrence Livermore is to design the weapons

and then work with our partners to make sure that they're manufactured, produced, assembled, and delivered successfully. Michael Zika is the Principal Associate Deputy Director for Strategic Deterrence at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. All ARIS missiles arrive at Cape Calabro for their first test firings from the nuclear submarine expressly designed for the job. In 1958, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory achieved a breakthrough with the W-47 warhead.

50 to 60 feet below the surface, we'll shoot the Polaris from under the sea to the surface. This lightweight, high-yield warhead was the perfect fit for the Polaris missile. And the time for launching is at hand. The first missile soars downrange 1,100 miles to its target. The first successful test of the Polaris A1 missile from Cape Canaveral marked the beginning of a new era in strategic deterrence.

Three years later, the Polaris missile, armed with the W-47 warhead, played a crucial role during the Berlin Crisis, a significant but overshadowed conflict in the Cold War. This lesser-known standoff at the Berlin border served as a precursor to the Cuban Missile Crisis, further highlighting the tense geopolitical landscape of the time. The threat is worldwide. Our efforts must be equally wide and strong. The Berlin Crisis saw a standoff between US and Soviet forces, where the presence of the Polaris missile and its formidable warhead is credited with averting the escalation into full-scale war.

Any misjudgment on either side could reign more devastation than has been wrought in all the wars of human history. Six months after the crisis, President Kennedy visited Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to personally thank the scientists for their contributions. This visit underscored the importance of the lab's work in averting nuclear war during one of the Cold War's most perilous moments. Since the inception of nuclear weapons, national laboratories like Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory have been vital in keeping the U.S. at the forefront of innovation and development in nuclear technology. In the U.S., we have the Department of Energy, and then within that, the National Nuclear Security Administration, which oversees this nuclear security enterprise. Dr. Marvin Adams serves as the Deputy Administrator for Defense Programs at the National Nuclear

Security Administration, or NNSA. To conduct the advanced science and engineering required for these technologies, the U.S. government relies on a network of national laboratories and research facilities across the country. The design and manufacture and certification and maintenance and assessment of our nuclear weapons is really done by people at the national laboratories and our production sites and our national security site in Nevada. These institutions collaborate to ensure the safety, security, and effectiveness of the nation's strategic deterrence capabilities.

There are about 2,500 federal employees in NSA, and then out in the labs and plants and sites, there's about 65,000. You can see where the bulk of the workforce is. Lawrence Livermore Lab, they do a lot of that warhead design work, and they work with the production sites to actually get the warheads delivered. The role of the design agency is to utilize a catalog of scientific tools and technologies to guide the design and eventual production of a nuclear device. I'd say the Stockpile Stewardship Program most simply can be described as the efforts that we do to assess and maintain the current active stockpile, the efforts that we have to modernize the stockpile, and also the efforts we have to be preeminent in the key science, technology, and engineering

disciplines that are required for us to do those first two parts of the mission. So we have to be excellent at science, technology, and engineering in order to sustain the active stockpile and modernize it. Of course, our core mission is maintaining the nuclear deterrent. So that includes sustaining and assessing the active stockpile. I think of that as the weapons that are currently on warheads that are out there right now, of which we are responsible for the W80-1, the W87-0, and the B83, but also our work to modernize the stockpile. Many of those capabilities are aging out and need to be updated. To provide some context, both the W87-0 warhead and the B83,

one of the most powerful warheads in the U.S. arsenal, have been in service since the early 1980s. These aging technologies require careful modernization to ensure they remain effective against evolving threats. We have a deployed or active stockpile that's out in the field today. And we have a responsibility to make sure it will always perform if it's asked to, and it will never do something unexpected in an accident scenario or a safety scenario. So we have to ask ourselves, is that stockpile safe,

secure, and reliable? We have to do so in the absence of nuclear testing. The United States has committed to no more nuclear testing. This bold act realized a long-standing objective of the international community. In 1996, nuclear testing was no longer allowed following the adoption of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. A turning point in the history of efforts towards nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. This treaty fundamentally changed the approach of the United States

to designing and maintaining the stockpile. But, while testing was an important method for scientists to gather data, nuclear tests were never their sole means of investigation. If you look back historically, even when we had access to nuclear testing, our delivery of weapon systems always depended on a science and technology base. We always did experiments in the lab. We always did experiments because nuclear tests are incredibly integrated and very hard to diagnose. What changed when we ceased doing nuclear testing was access to some regimes that really only occur in a nuclear weapon.

Regimes refer to the unique and extreme conditions such as high temperatures, pressures, and radiation levels that occur only during a nuclear detonation. During the detonation of a nuclear weapon, subatomic particles called neutrons are released through the process of nuclear fission. These released neutrons then collide with other nearby nuclei, causing them to undergo fission as well. This chain reaction continues, rapidly releasing a massive amount of energy. Understanding how neutrons interact with various materials is crucial in the design process of nuclear weapons. These interactions

can significantly impact the weapon's performance, such as its explosive yield as well as its safety. The key challenge of stockpile stewardship is how do we both maintain the existing deterrent as well as modernize it in the absence of nuclear testing. So in order to do that, we have to reproduce the conditions that a nuclear weapon experiences during both its storage, which is what we want them to do for their whole life. We want them to just sit there, right? And yet they don't just sit there. They're like chemistry experiments sitting on the shelf. They're changing and aging as they sit there.

Two, if we actually did have to use them, what would their performance actually be? There's a statement called always never. We always want them to work when we want them to work, and we never want them to work in any other scenario. So assuring that in the absence of nuclear testing is our challenge. To do this, the national laboratories need to have a wide variety of experimental capabilities. These include everything from standard chemistry experiments, which help scientists understand aging processes at normal temperatures, to advanced technical tests that recreate the conditions during the actual performance of the weapon.

Testing of that kind requires facilities that have the ability to create an extraordinary range of temperatures, pressures, and densities to be studied. That's where the four key function areas of Lawrence Livermore's Strategic Deterrence Directorate come into play. We have a program area called Weapon Physics and Design. Its responsibility is really to understand the physics of the system. Weapons technology and engineering has the responsibility for the engineering aspects of this, which includes the chemistry of how these systems are designed to sit in the stockpile for decades. The physicists like to design something and then the engineers have to make that turn into reality. There's a

lot of classified work here, so we can't just go outside and get it made. We have those big machine shops with lots of machine tools, and we're actually just brought up another high bay so that we can have the throughput for all the work that we have going on. Jung Olivier is the senior advisor and chief of staff of Livermore's Strategic Deterrence Directorate. In the engineering, we also have the advanced or additive manufacturing capability that's been built up in the last 10 years. And we have a lot of material scientists, manufacturing engineers, and the technicians that work in there to build these parts that we couldn't manufacture before. The third one is weapon simulation and computing.

Our ability to do these designs is enabled by all of our simulation capabilities. So weapon simulation and computing houses the expertise of building the simulation tools. Supercomputing, that's very important for us in terms of modeling and simulations that we need to do. These experiments that we talk about can be very expensive and very difficult to put together. So you don't want to do it by trial and error. You want to do it on the computers with modeling and simulation. There's also the National Ignition Facility. And so we have the modeling and simulations, but we can actually do experiments at NIF to validate these models and simulations that we have going on. And it allows us to recreate some of the

conditions that we would have had if we were able to do nuclear weapons testing. The fourth area is what we call weapons infrastructure. As you can imagine, all of the tools that we have require an infrastructure in which to house them. We have some capabilities that are quite unique in terms of high explosives handling. We do special nuclear material handling. Those have infrastructure needs that are quite unique. Weapons infrastructure provides the necessary facilities and support systems to house and maintain advanced tools and materials, assuring that all operations are conducted safely and efficiently. We think through what our long-term needs are, what our long-term plans are,

and how we're going to realize those capabilities moving into the future. After the design process is complete, Livermore then works with production plants to produce a prototype of the device. As a design agency, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory collaborates closely with partners like Y-12 and the Kansas City National Security Campus, employing advanced manufacturing and high-performance computing to refine and validate designs. This integrated process ensures that all components meet stringent performance, safety, and security requirements. We also have collaborations with the DOD, with the Air Force, with NNSA. We're a design agency. We test it to make sure that it's going to work. We have to work very closely with the production agency. They're the ones that actually make the stuff that gets sent to the DOD. We're definitely working toward a goal, and it's very hard and very

difficult. And so we all have to pull in the same direction. Through the integration of advanced technologies and cross-disciplinary collaboration, the lab remains at the cutting edge of strategic deterrence, demonstrating the power of unified expertise and teamwork. Over 50% of our staff in engineering have been here for less than five years. We've really grown a tremendous amount. And the other thing that I've noticed is that so many people here

in leadership positions are technical. They were hired for their technical capabilities, and that's highly prized at the laboratory. You have to know your stuff. The greatest leaders throughout history have understood that their nation's true power lies in its ability to find, foster, and develop the world's brightest minds. And the lab places its trust in the judgment of those brightest minds. There's somewhat of a misunderstanding that back when we were doing nuclear testing, we would design a weapon, we would go off and nuclear test it to make sure it worked,

and then that would go in the stockpile. That was almost never the case. We were always coupling what we did in underground nuclear tests with things that we did in other above ground kinds of experiments of the day. It was the weapon designer and their team and their judgment about, okay, with all this information that I have available to me, I'm judging that this is the thing I want to put in the stockpile. In that sense, the end of testing really wasn't night and day. We haven't tested our nuclear weapons since 1992, but we do know what we're doing and we know what we're talking about.

Part of why people believe us when we say that is they can see the quality of the science that we're able to do in weapons relevant areas of science and technology. What that tells everyone around the world is that our scientists and engineers really are top notch in these disciplines and we do know what we're talking about. We have better codes, faster computers, all of those things, but it still all comes down to subject matter expert judgment on, okay, given all of this information, which is better than it used to be, I now think this is fine to go into the stockpile, or this is a kind of change I could be confident we can make. So we really rely on people's judgment. That gives me confidence, and we know, quite frankly, that it tells our adversaries something about the prowess that we confident we can make, so we really rely on people's judgment. That gives me confidence,

and we know, quite frankly, that it tells our adversaries something about the prowess that we have in design of complicated things that are relevant to weapons physics. Our deterrent only works if other people, not just us, believe that it's credible. They have to believe that if the warheads were called on, that they would actually perform as designed, and as we say they would. And ultimately, that rests on the credibility of our scientists and our engineers. That 65,000 people workforce that I was talking about at our labs and plants and sites, they really are the bedrock. They're the foundation of that deterrent. That's what also enables us to respond to the changing global security environment. If adversaries change their asset mix or their defensive systems,

our ability to respond to all that stems from the ability and expertise of our workforce. And we need all the expertise we can get. Over the past decade, Russia has aggressively increased its number of non-strategic tactical warheads. Simultaneously, China is rapidly expanding its nuclear capabilities. In 2023, the Strategic Posture Committee acknowledged that achieving a nuclear weapon-free world now seems more improbable than ever. Statements from the last two STRATCOM commanders talk about how nuclear deterrence is the number one priority of the Department of Defense. Because our adversaries are doing

these developments, they're testing us. The U.S. is on its way to facing two nuclear near-peer adversaries for the first time, both capable of using force to change the international status quo. This evolving threat landscape calls for a reassessment of deterrent strategies and a continued commitment to harnessing the world's brightest minds. Increasingly, strategic deterrence includes more than nuclear, as advances in large conventional weapons or capabilities in cyber and space have become more significant. We need to pay attention to emerging technologies,

things we might not think of as part of strategic deterrence right now, but they're rapidly advancing, and we need to have world experts in them in order to see what impact they might actually have on national security. The world feels a lot less safe than it used to be. And I'm not sure if it is or is not. One of the things that I'm optimistic about is that the country, the nation,

and we as participants in that are having conversations that are long overdue in terms of what it means to maintain a deterrence, to deliver a deterrence, the investment required with that, and the seriousness with which we, the Department of Energy, the Department of Defense, take that responsibility. Our nation's strategic and nuclear deterrence depends on the collaboration of skilled people, advanced technology, and master military strategists. Together, they equip us with the necessary strategies to safeguard our way of life.

We need to not do business as usual. We need to go faster. We have a lot more challenges, difficult challenges, and we can't solve it by ourselves. Something I don't worry about at all is our ability to continue to hire smart people, people who are up to the challenge of actually designing the things we need to design. We are preeminent in all these areas of science, technology, and engineering. Other countries look at that and say, okay, they're serious. They're not messing around.

In the end, the strength of our national defense lies not only in the advanced technologies and powerful weapons we possess, but in the brilliance and dedication of the people behind them. From the cavernous silos housing our ICBMs to the silent depths where our submarines patrol, and to the high altitudes where our strategic bombers soar, each component of the

nuclear triad is a testament to scientific and engineering excellence. Our land-based deterrence, sea-based submarines, and air-based strategic bombers form the backbone of our strategic deterrence. Yet it is the scientists, engineers, and military strategbased strategic bombers form the backbone of our strategic deterrence. Yet it is the scientists, engineers, and military strategists who are the true sentinels at our gates, ensuring that these systems remain reliable and effective. Their work sends a powerful message to the world, that the United States stands ready and capable. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory invites you to join our diverse team of professionals where opportunities abound for engineers, scientists, IT experts, welders, administrative and business professionals, and more.

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, your contributions are not just jobs, they're a chance to make an impact from strengthening U.S. security to leading the charge in revolutionary energy solutions and expanding the boundaries of scientific knowledge. Our culture at the lab values collaboration, innovation, and a relentless pursuit of excellence. We're committed to nurturing your professional journey within a supportive workspace and offering a comprehensive benefits package designed to ensure your well-being and secure your future. Seize the opportunity to help solve something monumental. Dive into Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's wide variety of job openings at llnl.gov forward slash careers, where you can

also learn more about our application process. This is your chance to join a team dedicated to a mission that matters. Make your mark. Visit llnl.gov forward slash careers today to discover the roles waiting for you. Remember, your expertise might just be the spotlight of our next podcast interview. Don't delay. Uncover the myriad of opportunities available at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Thank you for tuning in to Big Ideas Lab. If you loved what you heard, please let us know by leaving a rating and review. And if you haven't already, don't forget to hit the follow or subscribe button in your podcast app to keep up with our latest episode.

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