Big Technology Podcast - AI's Doomsday Philosopher Says Maybe It'll All Be Totally Fine — With Nick Bostrum

Episode Date: August 7, 2024

Nick Bostrom is a renowned philosopher and bestselling author of "Superintelligence" and "Deep Utopia." He joins Big Technology to discuss the potential outcomes of advanced artificial intelligence, f...rom existential risks to utopian possibilities. Tune in to hear Bostrom's thoughts on how humanity might navigate the transition to a world of superintelligent AI and what life could look like in a technologically "solved" world. We also cover the evolution of AI safety concerns, the concept of effective accelerationism, and the philosophical implications of living in a post-scarcity society. Hit play for a mind-expanding conversation about the future of humanity and the profound challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. --- Enjoying Big Technology Podcast? Please rate us five stars ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ in your podcast app of choice. For weekly updates on the show, sign up for the pod newsletter on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/6901970121829801984/ Want a discount for Big Technology on Substack? Here’s 40% off for the first year: https://tinyurl.com/bigtechnology Questions? Feedback? Write to: bigtechnologypodcast@gmail.com

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Starting point is 00:00:00 The Oxford philosopher who warn the world about the dangers of AI superintelligence comes on to talk about how we might end up in utopia instead. And whether we should want that, that's coming up right after this. Welcome to Big Technology Podcast, a show for cool-headed, nuanced conversation of the tech world and beyond. We're here today with Nick Bostrom. He's a philosopher and the best-selling author of Superintelligence and also the author of a new book, Deep Utopia, Life and Meaning in a Solved World.
Starting point is 00:00:27 I have it here with me today. Nick, welcome to the show. Great to see you again. Good to see you. You know, I've really struggled to figure out like where exactly to start this interview because I was going to ask you about like your past talking about super intelligence and dangers of that or the beginning of Utopia. And then you know what I said? I'm just going to go back to our last conversation that we had. I'm not sure if you recall it, but I was writing my book always day one and I had a black mirror chapter talking about what could go wrong with artificial intelligence technology. And I was like, all right, I'm going to call Nick Bostrom for the AI. Black Mirror chapter because you became famous predicting or talking about the probability that we might end up with dangerous superintelligence and we should be prepared for that. And this is what you told me. He said, I don't necessarily think of myself as being in the dark. Mirror people come to me for a quote on the negative side of AI and then other people will read me saying something negative and then more people will come to me to get the negative side. It kind of gets to be self-ampifying and people then assume I only have negative things to say about AI. We spoke in
Starting point is 00:01:28 2019. And now you have this book coming out a little bit about how we might end up in utopia with AI. And of course, there are some concerns there. But did I kind of catch you in part of the journey between the dangers of superintelligence and maybe the utopic living that we might end up in? Not really. It's always been there both these sides in my thinking and my expectations. The previous book, Superintelligence, did focus most of the pages on what could go wrong. That is true. It seemed at a time more pressing to try to draw attention to the potential risks of developing artificial general intelligence and superintelligence so that we could hopefully develop ideas for how to avoid those pitfalls. But even back then, it always was clear
Starting point is 00:02:19 to me as well that if things go right, they could go very right indeed and that there was this enormous upside as well. And the more recent book tries to like actually analyze what that would look like if things, as it were, go maximally well. And we're going to get back to some parts of the interview that we did back in the day as we talk through like what this utopia can look like. In the meantime, I do want to talk to you about what it was like to be effectively this focal point for AI fear or negativity. Even if you had this more nuanced view, you certainly have lived sort of the perspective of being this vector for for people with fears of AI they would come to you and this is from this New Yorker's a story written about your book in 2015 the title was the doomsday
Starting point is 00:03:04 invention and it's this is describing your argument's true artificial intelligence if realize might pose a danger that exceeds every previous threat from technology even nuclear weapons and that if its development is not managed carefully humanity risks engineering its own extinction central to this concern is the prospect of an intelligence explosion, a speculative event in which AI gains the ability to improve itself, and in short order exceeds the intellectual potential of the human brain by many orders of magnitude. So first of all, how do you feel looking back to that portrayal? Well, not wrong. I think still today that there are very substantial risks in developing greater than human machine intelligence, including existential risks.
Starting point is 00:03:55 They have become a lot more widely recognized since the book Superintelligence came out. Back then, it came out in 2014, but it had been in the works for six years prior. At that time, this whole idea of, well, A, super-intelligent AI in the first place, and B, that it could pose existential risks, was very much neglected. Certainly academia completely ignored. That, until the book came out, and more broadly in the world, there were, you know, basically nobody, maybe a handful of people on the internet who were starting to think about the alignment problem. That has radically changed in intervening years. Now, there are many research groups focusing specifically on trying to develop scalable methods for AI alignment, including all the frontier AI labs.
Starting point is 00:04:43 Also, the governance challenges have started to receive a lot more attention, including from top-level policy. makers in the last two years. So the landscape has shifted dramatically. And it's, I mean, I guess it's in some sense validating to see that these concepts that used to be super fringe and totally outside the overturn window are now kind of very mainstream. Where do you think society is in terms of their concerns with AI now? Is there a proper amount of concern? Are they overly concerned? Because the truth is that the sort of doom contingent has really elevated dramatically and is very prominent, you know, even in the most serious research houses, open AI, anthropic, et cetera.
Starting point is 00:05:25 Yeah, there has been this search of the, yeah, the doomers in the last, I'd have been two years or something like that, where they really started to become vocal, like on Twitter and stuff. I think probably we are still below the optimal level of concern, but the kind of first derivative is that we're moving rapidly towards increasing levels of concern. And I've started worrying a little bit about us, not, as it were, increasing the level of concern to the optimal level and then stopping there, but kind of overshooting. If this negativity about AI snowballs, like it might, in some scenarios, get out of control and we might then lose out on the enormous upside that could be unlocked by developing the good kind of superintelligence. What does that overshooting look like?
Starting point is 00:06:18 Is it just that these concerns grow, I mean, bigger and bigger? Well, there are different ways. I mean, one scenario class, which still looks unlikely to me, although less unlikely perhaps than two years ago, is that you could imagine so much stigma developing that we get some ban, like maybe it starts with a pause or something, but then like after six months nothing has really changed to extend the pause, then you maybe set up regulatory agencies to police it to then have an, all they are doing is trying to prevent dangerous, like, or just a kind of negativity might develop into a new orthodoxy where like anybody who says
Starting point is 00:06:58 anything positive about AI gets cancelled or shadow ban, it just becomes like impossible to. And so it still seems a bit unlikely, but we can't really accurately predict the kind of social dynamics that will be playing out. and now under different circumstances than historically, because we have new technologies available now that might at some point make it possible to lock in an orthodoxy in ways that were never possible historically
Starting point is 00:07:25 because it could have much more fine-grained control over what people are saying. So that's one like class like another might be that instead of AI being banned, it kind of gets escalated to the national security level, which may or may not be good, but you could certainly imagine scenarios in which instead of it being a kind of peaceful
Starting point is 00:07:43 pursuit for civilian purposes by cooperating scientists generally motivated by some sort of, you know, humane, cosmopolitan goals. Like, it becomes more like a kind of, how can we get an edge over our military rivals? And it's not clear whether in that context the outcome looks rosier than if it were more like a kind of free-willing civilian enterprise. So that could be like a concern level with possible negative effects, even short of stopping AI development altogether. I mean, if you look at today's large language models, and I know we know this isn't the end
Starting point is 00:08:17 of development, but they are very smart in some areas and really stupid in some areas. And they continually fail tests that are put in front of them to try to demonstrate real-world understanding. Where does this fear come from? And what could eventually happen as we continue this path of development that could lead to some of the negative outcomes that you and others anticipate as one possibility? Yeah, I mean, I don't know how much we should read into the fact that current like AIs still have limitations, that that will remain true until it isn't true any longer, right? But the idea has always been that we can anticipate that AI capabilities most likely will continue to increase and at some point AI will succeed.
Starting point is 00:09:00 And then we can realize that at that point, like some really powerful dynamics will kick in. And we could try to use the intervening time to prepare ourselves. in different ways, including ideally solving the alignment problem, you know, maybe making some progress on the governance challenges and on like the ethics of, there's a bunch of difficult ethical questions that will arise with like the moral status of digital minds and the distribution of benefits, like a lot of quite tricky questions that we could use these intervening years to try to, you know, think about. Unfortunately, we wasted most of the time we had. I mean, I think, I mean, I, to me, at least, even back in the 90s when I started thinking about
Starting point is 00:09:44 these types of things, it was clear that we had a good chance of eventually developing AI and that it was going to pose these risks. We could have used those decades to do our homework. And it's become increasingly clear, but really only in the last maybe five years or so has to have been like a significant effort to actually work on these issues. So we still have some time left on the clock. We don't know how much, but hopefully we can at these make a good use of the remaining months and years. Yeah. Why do you believe that it's a certainty that will sort of achieve artificial general
Starting point is 00:10:16 intelligence? Certainty is too strong a word, I think. But you feel it's very likely. Yeah, at least conditional on science and technology continuing. And like we could have some sort of civilizational collapse or we could eventually, you know, go extinct or destroy ourselves in some other way, not unrelated to AI. There are like developments in synthetic biology and other new weapon systems and whatnot. But if kind of these development efforts in hardware and in algorithms continue,
Starting point is 00:10:50 then it looks very likely that we will succeed in this. I mean, from first principles, we have the human brain as an existence proof that general intelligence is possible. There is no reason at all to suppose the human brain is in an essence optimal, like neither from a hardware point of view nor presumably from the algorithmic point of view. So just as we have machines that are physically much stronger and faster than human bodies or any animal body is
Starting point is 00:11:19 than likewise we will have eventually cognitive systems that are much faster and clever. So that's like a very high level argument, but then you can also look just at the kind of advances we are seeing where more and more things that used to be impossible for AI's to do have become done and they're just a lot fewer left of these kind of milestones. There is this phenomenon that like before it is done, it looks really hard.
Starting point is 00:11:47 Once AIs have done it, then we kind of quickly forget how just how impressive it was and just take it for granted. Like, yeah, of course computers can play chess. Like, of course, what's the big deal? But like at the time, like it was a big. And then you can see like, oh, we have that can play go. they can see, they can imagine, they can write poetry, they can write computer programs, they can talk to us in ordinary language, they like can pass like, you know, undergraduate level
Starting point is 00:12:17 exams in all these different subjects. Like this, this is a lot of stuff that like to people 30 years ago would have been like, wow, you must be really close to AGI if you have done all of these things. Okay, so let's talk about Utopia a little bit. Just give us your perspective what could go right in the best case well why don't we do this way what could go wrong in the worst case scenario of AI what could go right in the best case scenario of AI and how do how do humans have a influence in terms of which direction we go so I think there is like the the real ex-risk existential risks that will arise as we develop and possibly not even super intelligence but you could imagine even something short of that making it very easy to develop new
Starting point is 00:13:02 weapons of mass destruction in using synthetic biology or other. Are you more concerned about humans using AI to hurt each other or AI hurting us? Well, I think they are both worth worrying about. I think with the X risks, I mean, maybe a slightly larger on the AI being the kind of agentic part there. But certainly, we really need to do a decent job on both sort of the alignment and the governance for us to have a good outcome. So yeah, so now on the upside,
Starting point is 00:13:32 like there is a huge unlock and a lot of that is just a removal of a bunch of negatives. If you look around at the world as it is now, it's not that rosy a picture in many ways. It's quite a horror show with people dying from, you know, Alzheimer's or kids getting cancer and like starvation and people being bombed and like all kinds of or just at the more mundane level, people spending most of their adult life, you know, working in a sort of boring occupation that gives them no fulfillment, but they just have to do it to, you know, to pay the rent. And like, you know, headaches and stomach aches and like all kinds of, just the totality of all of this, extreme misery and very common more everyday misery, that's just within the human sphere. And then you add the animal kingdom with like ameliorating all that suffering. would already be, I think, a very strong argument that something at some point needs to be done here.
Starting point is 00:14:37 Can't, like, gone like this. I mean, do we want like another, you know, 10,000 years, 100,000 years of just this? But I think on top of that, there is, like, the potential to also unlock, like, new levels of flourishing beyond those which are possible, even under ideal conditions in the current world. That's a lot harder to paint a very concrete picture of because we are sort of limited in our ability to imagine and appreciate, just as, you know, if you imagine like the great ape ancestors of Homo sapiens kind of thinking about what could be so good about being, you know, human. And so they might like realize a few things like, oh, we could have banana plantations and have like a lot of bananas and stuff. and that is true we can have a lot of bananas now but there's more to being human than just unlimited bananas right like we have sort of you know music and poetry and film and humor and romantic love and like all kinds of stuff science so similarly there is probably like if we
Starting point is 00:15:46 unlock as it were the a greater space of possible modes of being there are some in there I'm sure that are extremely valuable, that I think AI would be the most plausible path towards realizing. If I then really dives in and tries to think more specifically about what would the best possible continuation of a life starting from like our current human starting point look like, then there are some quite interesting philosophical questions that arise. And so this book, Deep Utopia, it's not really an attempt to sort of, well, before we looked at the down. side. Now, let's make the case of how wonderful the upside could be. I think the upside could be extremely wonderful, but that's not sort of the thrust of the buck. It's more like, let's just look at this. What would happen if we actually did succeed in creating a solved world, as I call it, like where all the practical problems are already solved, or to the extent that
Starting point is 00:16:45 there are problems that are not solved. They are in a way better dealt with by advanced AIs and robots than by us. And there is like some aspects of that condition that at least prima facie look quite unappealing to our current sensibilities. We often define our sense of self-worth on the idea of being a contributor. Like you're a breadwinner, you make like a positive difference in the lives of your friends or society at large. You bring value to the world. So much of our existence is kind of constructed within the constraints of various instrumental necessities that have been with us since the dawn of the human species. There have always been a lot of things that we need to do just to survive. And if you remove all of those, there is at least initially the sense of kind of disorientation or an undermining of like we feel like kind of what's the purpose.
Starting point is 00:17:50 like we would just be these blobs. But this is different from what we spoke about the last time. You and I were on the phone. This was in 2019, I think. You said that we'd have to find some news source. This is from our conversation that I put in my book. We'd have to find some new sources of South Worth. But in Disneyland, the job of children there is to enjoy the whole thing.
Starting point is 00:18:11 And Disneyland would be a rather sad place if it weren't for the kids. So you say we would all be like kids in this giant Disneyland, maybe one that would be maintained and improved by our AI machine tools. So effectively that even if we didn't have to do any sort of sustainment work that gets turned over to AI, we could be actually quite fulfilled in life. Yeah. So how do you get from there to where you are today? Well, I think that's basically correct.
Starting point is 00:18:36 But we can distinguish two different senses of fulfilled or of having purpose. So there is, first of all, what you might say, the subjective sense, It's like the feeling of fulfillment or the feeling of having purpose. It's like the emotion of being motivated and you're really excited about what you're doing, right? Like that kind of psychological state, that certainly you could have that in a salt world, in utopia. The utopians could have like extreme levels of motivation and immersion and subjective purpose. That's easy. That's like a checkmark.
Starting point is 00:19:14 And more broadly, you can go through different plausible human values. And for some of them, you can just write off the bat, say, well, yeah, sure, of course. That would be trivially easy to do in utopia. So in this case, through the psychological engineering techniques that they would have. I mean, already you could have, like, imagine a drug without side effects and without addiction potential. That just induced a state of fascination and motivation. We already have simple versions of that. But you could imagine far more sophisticated ways that would give the utopians, like, very fine-grained direct.
Starting point is 00:19:47 control over their mental states and their psychology. That would follow from technological maturity. Right. So that's easy. Some people, however, think that there is also a more objective concept of purpose, where it's not just that you feel motivated, but that what you are doing is actually objectively worth doing. That's a little bit less obvious to what extent the utopians would have that, in as much
Starting point is 00:20:17 At least at first sight, it looks like anything they could do. They wouldn't have to do because they could just press a button and a machine could do it instead. Except for those few things that you bring up that actually we want humans to do. For instance, like ordain a marriage, right? Like that is something or read a poem. People might want this to be humans. Potentially, yeah. So you could automate everything.
Starting point is 00:20:39 But except there might be certain jobs where the, as it were, consumer has a direct preference that the job would be done by human. which case by as it were almost by definition it's not automatable exactly and this whole idea of a solved world is basically where AI can effectively take care of everything all of our needs all the production and we are in this utopia because the machines have done all the hard stuff that we don't want to do anymore so you could imagine like a very dystopian scenario with advanced technology if you have like a sort of totalitarian despotic right but imagine also that to whatever extent governance problems can be solved, they have been solved. Maybe you can't solve governance, but to whatever extent they're like better and worse
Starting point is 00:21:22 in terms of social political structures. Imagine like we get something at the good end of that combined with technological maturity. That's basically the definition of a solved world. Sorry, I know I took you on a bit of a tangent there. No, so yeah. So like that kind of layers. So you could say first, well, you could have like a simple utopia might be a kind of post-scarcity utopia where we just have abundance of material goods. So we already, if you're fortunate enough,
Starting point is 00:21:52 to live in like a developed country, you know, with a decent education, etc., you're already pretty close to that. You might not be able to have like the ideal yacht of your dreams. Like there are some limitations. But if you sort of plot a line that has like the starting point hunter-gatherer And the end point is like complete post-scarcity. I think we are more than halfway there.
Starting point is 00:22:17 Like it's a bigger difference to go from not having enough to eat to having enough to eat than, you know, to get like a slightly more advanced version of an iPhone or like a third house if you already have two houses. Like they're diminishing returns. So that's like you could first consider this concept post-scarcity utopia. Okay. So then what's a level of, as it were, more radical?
Starting point is 00:22:40 utopia than that, well, you could have a post-work utopia where not just do we have plenty, but we don't have to work to produce that plenty. So it's not just that we work all day long and then we have a lot of money and we buy stuff. But imagine you had all this plenty and you didn't have to work. It's slightly more radical conception, but not that radical. I mean, there are already people who are born with a trust fund or something and they never have to work and they have plenty. Again, there's limits to how big their palaces could be. But like least some approximation. But I think we can then go further and consider even more radical conceptions. So I've already alluded to, there is the post-instrumental utopia that you could
Starting point is 00:23:26 have, where it's not just that we don't have to work, I like to make money, but we also don't have to do any of the other things that we currently have to do for instrumental reasons. So if, you know, if you are Bill Gates, you still have to brush it. chief, you still have to do a whole host of things just in your everyday life to get the outcomes you want. There's like a limit to how much you could ask your assistant to do or that you could, you know, but in this scenario, like a lot of those other instrumental reasons we have for doing things would also drop out of the picture with like super advanced automation technology. And I think there's like a step further than that, which is a call it a plastic
Starting point is 00:24:10 utopia where we also have complete control over ourselves over our own bodies minds and mental states using like advanced techno biotechnologies or newer technologies that's going to we're going to achieve that that's wild yeah but I think if you consider what would be possible at technological maturity which we can at least play some lower bounds on through a kind of theoretical analyses so we we can sort of of estimate what kinds of computational systems could be built. We can see what kind of molecular manufacturing systems are possible to build in our universe, even though we can't currently put them together with the tools we have now. We can see that there is like a path there.
Starting point is 00:24:55 Other things like cures for aging and stuff like that, like we don't have them yet, but there is no loss of physics, prevent people from living indefinitely if you had like repair technologies, et cetera, et cetera, perfect virtual realities, perfect, like, ways to manipulate the brain, like, that they're better than drugs. Like, there's this kind of, in fact, like a table in the book that outlines some of the affordances you would have at technological maturity. And maybe there will be additional things we haven't yet thought of, but at least these. And so they would, I think, enable us to instantiate this condition of plasticity, where
Starting point is 00:25:36 human nature itself becomes malleable. that's crazy so that means there are further questions about purpose so right now like if you didn't have to work for a living like maybe some people would say well you know maybe i would start you know going to the gym more to get fit right like that's you can't hire a robot to you know run on the treadmill on your on your behalf but with plasticity there would be a shortcut to that you could pop a pill that would induce exactly the same physiological and cycle and we're already on the way to there with Ozympic. Yeah, exactly.
Starting point is 00:26:11 That's like one more step in that direction. And so the thing is with superintelligence, you get the telescoping of the future. So all these sort of science fiction-like technologies that maybe we would develop if we had like 20,000 years for human scientists to work for it. We probably will have a cure for aging
Starting point is 00:26:30 and perfect virtual reality and space colonies and all the rest of it, right? but all of that could happen very quickly if you have superintelligence doing the research and development. So you get this kind of telescoping of the long term. But yeah, so then there's like a further set of things that currently fill the lives of people
Starting point is 00:26:51 that we wouldn't need to do, including things we do for fun. So maybe some person say, well, you know, if I didn't have to work and I had like, maybe I would play golf all day long, like because why why would you play golf for the long well because it's fun it gives me joy or let's suppose somebody says that well then in this condition of plasticity there would be a different and easier way for them to get joy they would just pop a pill and they could get
Starting point is 00:27:18 exactly the same level of subjective well-being as like a beautifully manicured golf course could induce and so i can't even imagine that type of world that's crazy um yeah so it does then require a fairly fundamental rethink of what it means to be human in this radically transformed condition. But it is kind of the implicit t-loss of our current strivings, if you think about it. So we try to, the little problems come up,
Starting point is 00:27:51 like we try to solve it. And then like there's like another problem that we all like, so our food rot, let's invent a refrigerator, like oh, we get fat, let's like invent those empec, like oh, our cars pollute, Let's make cleaner engines. But if you kind of extrapolate and take all of that to its limit, then you would end up in a situation where we can do everything with no effort.
Starting point is 00:28:14 That would be kind of the limit of technology. AI, the goal of AI has all along been not just to automate a few specific things, but to provide the technology that allows us to automate all tasks. Like AI hasn't really succeeded until all intellectual labor can be done by machine. and so I think it's kind of we don't we don't think about it like that but if you sort of see what all of this effort is all these investments we have in science and technology and our efforts to make the economic system more efficient to allow kids to learn more in school like all of this kind of adds up to some sort of arrow of attempted progress in a certain direction and you might as well at some point stop to think what happens if we actually get there And then we do end up, I think, in this condition of a sold world. And the question is whether we're ready for that. So, Nick, are you able to stick around for another couple minutes or do you have a hard out?
Starting point is 00:29:13 I could do a few more minutes, maybe. Okay. All right. Let's take a quick break and come back and ask a little bit about whether we can handle that perfect world. We'll be back right after this. Hey, everyone. Let me tell you about the Hustle Daily Show, a podcast filled with business, tech news, and original stories to keep you in the loop on what's trending.
Starting point is 00:29:29 More than 2 million professionals read The Hustle's daily email for its irreverent and informative takes on business and tech news. Now, they have a daily podcast called The Hustle Daily Show, where their team of writers break down the biggest business headlines in 15 minutes or less and explain why you should care about them. So, search for The Hustle Daily Show and your favorite podcast app, like the one you're using right now. And we're back here with Nick Bostrom. He's a philosopher, the best-selling author of Super Intelligence, an author of the new book, Deep Utopia, life and meaning in a solved world. It's out now. Great book. Definitely recommend you pick it up. So you basically said if we get to this perfect world, you think right now we're effectively unfit to inhabit it. And in your book, we sort of look at, or in the early chapters,
Starting point is 00:30:15 you sort of look at the fact that we've increased our productivity, but we're using it for consumption rather than leisure. And that's concerning to you. Is that part of the reason why you think we're not quite ready for this? So where do we, where do we, fall short in our preparation for utopia? Well, I think human nature is kind of forged and evolved under various conditions, including conditions of scarcity and condition where there are like instrumental demands on us. We need to exert ourselves, make efforts, try, we need to work just to get by in life. This has been true for hundreds of thousands of years.
Starting point is 00:30:54 It's still true to some extent today, although with certain relaxations. Like, for example, food is much less of an issue for people living in wealthy countries. And increasingly also for more middle-income countries where obesity is becoming an issue. So there you can already see a little bit of a mismatch, like where we kind of evolved to live under conditions of food scarcity. And when that no longer obtains, unless we make adjustments, like we kind of balloon in size and then we need to try to find fixes for that. But I think a much more profound mismatch between where we currently are psychologically and biologically,
Starting point is 00:31:29 and our environment could arise if we suddenly moved into a condition of a soul world. So there would need to be some adjustments in that, I think, scenario if we wanted to take advantage of all the things that would be possible. And what would those adjustments be? Well, I think for a start, if we take, for example, human hedonic well-being, which maybe is like one of the easiest things to look at, just like the subjective state of positive affect. Like, are you actually enjoying the present moment?
Starting point is 00:32:05 Does it feel good or is it like unpleasant? So this is like a fairly fundamental dimension of our psychological state. Some people think it's the only thing that matters. If you are a hedonist, in the philosophical sense, you think that the only bad is suffering and the only good is pleasure. not necessarily in the sense of physical pressure, but in the broad sense of sort of positive mental hedonic tone. So it looks like we are kind of designed in a way
Starting point is 00:32:39 where we have a fairly powerful habituation mechanism. So if somebody's conditions in life improve a lot, often maybe they win the lottery or something, right? So they get really happy they win the lottery, but very quickly this sort of hedonic tone falls back to the baseline. because we are not designed for permanent bliss. We are designed in such a way that our reward system motivates us to produce more effort at whatever level.
Starting point is 00:33:09 Like, no matter how good our situation is, we are designed to always try to want to make it better. And so we only get reward when things improve rather than when things are at a good level. To a first approximation, it's not completely true. I think people under better conditions are slightly happier than people under worse conditions. and maybe a lot happier if they're like under really bad conditions, it's like certainly has a sort of permanent negative effect. But now if there were no more opportunities for improvement, and there is like no need for our like instrumental efforts,
Starting point is 00:33:43 that it seems very stingy that we would still not be able actually thoroughly to enjoy lives. So maybe we would want to change that set point. So we could all be much happier all the time. to actually relish this, this future. Like, it would be sad, like, if everything were as, like, super nice and we were still miserable there, like, and then just living like that for, like, millions of years and, like, not really, that would seem to be a very unfortunate.
Starting point is 00:34:12 So that could be one obvious adjustment. There's, like, a bunch of other things as well, that, like, you might imagine upgrades of various human capabilities our cognitive abilities, our emotional repertoires, our ability to connect to other people, obviously physical health. And then kind of at the philosophical almost, or like our overall attitude to life.
Starting point is 00:34:44 So the idea that you sort of conceive of your self-worth as being based on your ability to make a contribution. Maybe it needs to be rethought here. like if we can no longer make contributions. There is an asterisk to that. I think there are certain ways in which maybe the utopians could, but at least our opportunity
Starting point is 00:35:04 to sort of help out other people would be reduced if there's just less misery and need in the world to begin with. Like if you're a doctor and there was no disease, you need to find another occupation or you can't base your self-worth
Starting point is 00:35:18 of being a really good and caring doctor if nobody's sick. Like then you have to rethink that. And I think at the more general level, we would all have to sort of rethink what makes like a human life have dignity in this condition where we are no longer really where it's at. Yeah, okay, here's the last one. It's kind of wacky, but I thought I'd throw it out there and see what you think.
Starting point is 00:35:40 If we reach superintelligence and we hit this utopia, do you think, and I know you've spoken a little bit about the potential of us to be living in a simulation? So if we reach superintelligence, do you think there's a chance that we're going to crack out of the simulation and effectively figure out who's running it if we're in one. That would be one possible scenario, right? If you are in a simulation, the simulation could just end with nothing, or it could be rerun, or you could enter a different sort of environment within the simulation continues, but the sort of virtual environment changes, or indeed you could be sort of uplifted out of the
Starting point is 00:36:21 simulation into the world of the simulator. All of those are at least kind of metaphysically possible, conditional on us being in a simulation in the first place. So the simulation hypothesis expands the space of sort of realistic possibilities and the space of realistic futures. You might think if you're living just in a simple materialistic universe, you die, that's the end, your brain rots, there's no more experience, and there's really not much room for other things given. like the loss of physics and us being purely material with our soul, et cetera, et cetera. If you are in a simulation, then there's like a much wider range of things that could happen, that would seem perfectly plausible given the assumption. I mean, if we're there, it would be so crazy to just unzip and poke our heads out
Starting point is 00:37:12 and see what's behind the thing. Yeah. Okay. The book is Deep Utopia, Life and Meaning in a Solve World. It's by Nick Bostrom, our guest today, also the author of Super Intelligence. Best Sailing author, Nick Bostrom, thanks so much. for spending some time with us today. I enjoyed our concession.
Starting point is 00:37:28 Me too. All right, everybody. Thanks so much. We will see you next time on Big Technology Podcast.

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