Big Technology Podcast - Google Pushes OpenAI, Bezos Returns, AI’s No. 1 Hit

Episode Date: November 21, 2025

Ranjan Roy from Margins is back for our weekly discussion of the latest tech news. We cover: 1) Sam Altman's admission that Google surpassed OpenAI in some areas 2) OpenAI getting thrown off the mark 3) What happens if Ai models commoditize? 4) Google surpasses Microsoft in market cap 5) Inside Google's rapid-fire comeback 6) Why Google's search business remains strong 8) Google's Gemini 3 marketing strategy 9) NVIDIA's earnings don't save the market 10) Oracle's rough few months 11) Jeff Bezos is a startup co-CEO again 12) Grok glazes Elon 13) AI music is... good? 14) May I meet you?? --- Enjoying Big Technology Podcast? Please rate us five stars ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ in your podcast app of choice. Want a discount for Big Technology on Substack + Discord? Here’s 25% off for the first year: https://www.bigtechnology.com/subscribe?coupon=0843016b Questions? Feedback? Write to: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Google's latest model has open AI concerned it's losing its edge. Jeff Bezos is back in the AI startup game. May I meet you, says Bill Ackman, and has AI music passed the Uncanny Valley. We'll cover it all on a Big Technology podcast Friday edition right after this. Capital One's tech team isn't just talking about multi-agentic AI. They already deployed one. It's called chat concierge, and it's simplifying car shopping. Using self-reflection and layered reasoning with live API checks,

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including your AI agents. visit octa.com. That's okayta.com. Welcome to Big Technology Podcast Friday edition, where we break down the news in our traditional cool-headed and nuanced format. We have a great show for you today

because we are going to cover how Google has come and effectively equal to open AI's technology causing Sam Altman to write a memo saying the vibes might be bad for a while. We will also touch on Jeff Bezos entering the AI startup game. We'll talk about Bill MacMackman's pickup

And then we'll also cover this unbelievable AI song or some, a song that people have started to hate and what that means for creativity. Joining us, as always, on Fridays to do this is Ranjan Roy of Margins, who's here with us in studio today. Ron John, great to see you. There's no rough vibes here. I'm in the financial district face to face with Alex today. So I'm excited.

We are here. When the AI bubble crashes, this is going to be the place where it all goes down. So we're just giving an early scout hour. We're going to go take a look at the bull and the vibes here and see how things are going for the inevitable AI crash. Maybe it will crash. Maybe it won't. Who knows? Well, the stock market is up at time of recording.

S&P's up 1.4% today. But it's been a bad week. It's been a bad week. But maybe we're back. Maybe we're back. I don't know. I mean, a week, and we'll get into it, but a week where Nvidia does what it does, which is crush earnings, is typically followed by a pattern of, of the market saying, oh, we're good for now and shooting higher.

But we had a very different effect this week. Following on our conversation about the AI bubble with Gile Luria last week, it's like, oh, God, like the market really is concerned here. No, we're going to talk markets. We're going to talk debt. We're going to talk AI. We love debt. And Bill Ackman pickup lines.

Bill Ackman, of course. Right, which people are actually saying is working. So. I'm sure it is. I'll get to that in the second half. But to begin with, so obviously this week, the big news in the AI world is that Google came out with Gemini 3, its latest AI model. Gemini 3 smashes the benchmarks. It crushed on the ARC AGI test. It's currently at the top of the L.M. Arita leaderboards.

And even Sam Altman came out and said, hey, good model. Like, you know, good game. Congrats. The information comes out with this very interesting story about it. Altman Memo forecasts rough vibes due to resurgent. Google. Here's the story. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told colleagues last month that Google's recent progress in artificial intelligence could create temporary economic headwinds for our company, though he added OpenAI would emerge ahead. After Open AI researchers heard that Google had created

a new AI that appears to have leapfrogged open AIs in the way it was developed, Altman said, in the memo, we know we have some work to do, but we are catching up fast. and he cautioned employees that I expect the vibes out there to be rough for a bit. I have not heard Open AI talk this cautiously ever and never admit that it's been surpassed by anyone. So this is a watershed moment. No, no, it's a big deal because when you think about anthropic, you think about Microsoft, you think about meta, open AI from just a pure kind of like model sexiness, that's my

benchmark of choice. I don't know how it's calculated, but it's important. has not been equaled at any point in the last number of years. Like there'll be some kind of like, you know, low grade benchmark, which someone might have, like, you know, get excited about. But in terms of actual buzz around a model release, Open AI, GPT5 was a flop in terms of actually meeting the hype. And Gemini 3 had people more excited than I've seen them in a long time around a model launch.

So that's Open AI's game. And they're losing at it right now. It was like almost the opposite from what we're used to, right? Like the Google does an announcement and everyone's like, okay, oh, okay. And opening eye blows it out of the water. This time, people were genuinely excited. Like I mentioned, Gemini 3 is at the top of the Elam Arena leaderboards and trailing it is actually grok, which is funny.

We're going to get. We're going to get into it. To me, you know, so obviously Sam Altman wrote this memo anticipating Gemini. And I thought the most interesting part about it was how he said that Google, success here, which is undoubtedly succeeded, is going to create temporary economic headwinds for our company. And I'm very curious what you think that is, because is he saying that people will subscribe to Google products instead of Chat ChpT, and that could slow down the growth or, and I think this is the real issue, if Chat Chip-T loses that sheen as being the leader,

the undisputed leader, the first, the lab that's most likely to be first to AGI, then might be very tough for it to continue to raise money and keep going on with this financing run that it's been on. All right. I'm going to, there's two layers to that statement, I think. So economic headwinds. I think you're completely correct. ChatGPT is the verb. Google was the verb for search. ChatchipT has earned verb status for every single person I know. That is the term they used for any AI chatbot, especially if you're not in the industry. If they lose that to Google and Gemini and someone somewhere says, I Gemini'd that, it's a real problem. It's a huge problem.

So there's the consumer side. But my kind of like, not conspiracy theory, but one of the bigger parts of this story, again, was that Google trained Gemini on their own TPUs. And in terms of the overall compute story that Open AI is at the center of, and we'll get more into again, this circular, financing across the oracles and Open AIs and Microsofts of the world, if suddenly Google shows there's a more economically efficient way to actually build these new models, I think that actually is much more of an economic headwind because that screws Open AIs entire, I'm not going to

say shell game, but just I'm going to say very creative financing structures that they built across the entire industry right now. Like, is this a deep seek moment? the way Google actually built Gemini 3 and does it change the economics of how these models are built? I think is one of the, you know, like I've seen coverage of it. I've seen discussion around it, but it definitely was not at the center of the conversation. Right. And in a way, it doesn't even matter if it's more economically efficient. I think the court, well, one way of saying it about the economic efficiency is that they have less constrained access to TPUs compared to everybody trying to build and train on.

Nvidia GPUs, right? TPUs is Google's proprietary chip. They design them. They have them at the ready. They are less supply constraint than Nvidia GPUs. And maybe Google, you know, even if it hasn't found this like efficient way to train a model, just the fact that they have these chips at their disposal, whereas competitors like Open AI have to go and, you know, buy them at a very high cost from Nvidia. That is, that's a real leg up. And they could really exploit that advantage. Yeah. So I think at both of those levels, economic headwind is almost a light way of saying it. I think it's even more interesting, though, that like Sam Altman, I'm very, what it made me curious about is, like, internally, how does he speak to his team regularly versus how he speaks outwardly?

Because we all know Sam Altman is not shy about being a bit grandiose, bombastic, ambitious, whatever word you choose. But internally, is he typically more realistic and measured with his team? Or is he, when he writes a memo, he has to know it's going to get leaked, right? Like, what is the way he's communicating around this significantly different than how he has in the past? What do you think? Yeah, I think it's definitely a change. And again, going back to like the way that we open this, the fact of the matter is that we haven't seen Open AI ever say we have to catch up because it hasn't been the case.

So I think that like, I almost think back to him getting frustrated in that interview about how they're going to pay for the infrastructure. And he goes like enough. And that was probably right around the time that he sent this memo out. So it could just be this like, oh God. No, I mean, honestly, I have watched that. over and over again. Like when it first came out, I saw it circulating. This is the Brad Gersner interview where he asks him very, you know, like nicely,

you know, 14 billion in revenue or 17, whatever it was and 1.4 trillion in financing commitments. And Sam gets positively indignant and is like not only, of course, we're going to, you know, our revenue is up into the right. It's hockey stick growth. And then oddly got into, you know, like, well, if you don't. want your shares, someone else will buy them. Like, I don't know, the more I watch that, I'm still convinced that's going to be kind of the seminal moment. Yeah. The Rick Santelli

2008 for any long time, uh, global financial crisis people out there. But the fact that that happened along this, basically at this moment where you realize what was coming from Google, that like shows, I wouldn't say panic, but a level of, they got knocked off their mark in a way they haven't been recently. He's not, he's off his game. He was off his game that day. And you're right, timeline-wise, it matches up. I kept thinking about this other quote, right? Remember, because Sam Altman teamed up with Satya Nadella. And Sadia, what did he say once Chatchipati came out and started taking off?

I'd like to make Google dance. And now Google, by the way, we're going to talk about it. Google today surpassed Microsoft in market cap. I mean, they're still both doing great, 3.59 trillion or so to 3.5 trillion. But in turn, Sundar had, he did have to dance. Sundar's dancing. he's made Sam Altman dance as well. Yeah.

Sundar dancing is just an amazing image. I've never seen a clip of Sundar dance. You could probably create one on one on Google's image generators today. Actually, that's my next nanobanana task after we're done recording. By the way, we're going to go, we obviously are going to talk a little bit about how Google's doing so well. There's just still so careful on the product side. It drives me nuts.

Like I asked for like a training plan to like, you know, for this hike I was doing. And it was like, this is not really going to work because it's dangerous. and I had to write back, are you kidding me? Like, it's just totally normal. And they have this level of safetyism on this model. And again, I tried to alter Sundar's picture today with Nanobanana. I couldn't. That, to me, is the biggest drawback.

So I was able to generate fully, like, real life likenesses of Jensen, Sundar, on nanobanana. Oh. Yeah, on Gemini 3. I got to see the way. Maybe they're relaxing that. You're on children's mode. They must have me.

They must be like, this guy's a reporter. Yeah. He's going to write about us, you know, doing the glue on the pizza and the rocks. So, so we just shouldn't let him do any. Meanwhile, I got full access. You do. All right. I got to get Ron John's nano banana account, really, and have fun this weekend.

But, you know, I think underlying this, you know, yeah, okay, so what if open AI does leap back forward in some. I mean, Sam didn't say, like, we're behind on everything, but there are some areas that he says that Google has surpassed us in. And so I kept thinking, well, what if Open AI, you know, let back forward? because, you know, we've been talking a little bit about Gemini 3. Both of us know that it's, you know, doing well on the leaderboards, but it's not like it's a brand new experience when it comes to using AI chatbots or AI chat or tools, whatever it is. And that, to me, points to the bigger problem, which is it seems like if we're not there yet,

we're getting close to the era of commoditization of these AI models that, you know, you know, before, let's say, Open AI had a big lead and could exploit that advantage and maybe charge more or, you know, grow chat GPT, you know, faster than others. And then you have, you know, the fact that like they're now neck and neck with Google seems to indicate that like maybe, you know, after, you know, three years, we're here. I think today, today or this week is the three year anniversary of chat GPT's introduction, that maybe these models are commoditizing. And in a way, you know, ChatsyP.T. can code well, and so can Anthropic. And you can chat with Gemini. You can chat with OpenAI. And that introduces a whole new economic question about the viability and the

profitability of these companies. Yeah, I think actually in November 30, it's, we're nine days away from our big three-year anniversary of ChatsyPT's launch. Yeah, I think Gemini three, and I really want to get into the kind of like pre-launch marketing campaign basically, which was incredible launched by Gemini, Google, Sundar, all of them. But as I used it, nothing really changed. Certainly nothing in my day-to-day life changed dramatically. All the things that I'm told by X number of influencers on X, you know, like create a product design. Cool. Create an infographic based on an article. Cool. Actually, it just reminded me that infographics are like the most boring form of media imaginable. Sorry for any infographics folks. But like, I think to me, the entire

technological push of what's possible is nice and exciting, but still integrating it into you everyone's day to day. There's, and I don't, like, this is both model and product that Google's releasing with Gemini 3, but I still feel that model race is not the most interesting part. But I do think, like, what makes this so scary for ChatGBT BT is Google's distribution. Because Claude-going consumer is, like, non-existent when someone has to sign up, find about it. It's a whole marketing exercise. But if Gemini 3 fully replaces chat GPT or is as good, that is really scary. Because when everyone already goes to Google.com and can move right over to Gemini from a consumer standpoint, and that is Open AI's entire business, like, I mean, majority, that's a

problem. Yeah, I want to get to that in a moment because I did write the story in big technology about how Google has had this, you know, unbelievable comeback. I mean, early 2020, five people were asking should Sundar. He fired. Now he's dancing. Now he's dancing on top of the models that he's surpassed. But just getting to the, let's go to the commoditization question quick. If the models do commoditize, and I'm saying like, of course they'll all have like their own strengths. But let's say Gemini isn't all that different from GPD, which isn't all that different from Claude, which isn't all that different from GROC. How does that change the economics of this AI moment? Yeah, I mean, I've been talking about this for a long time that I don't, I think,

this is product not model. We're all getting there. Everyone's getting there. It's all good. You know, like ARC AGI score or like, I think what was the other one? It was like the final test of humanity. Yeah, humanity's last exam. It scored a 37.5% up from 20. None of this stuff means anything to me. I mean, it's all kind of academically and intellectually interesting, but in reality, what is it actually doing for individuals? And we're definitely at, I don't want to say a plateau. I think the amount everyone is going to be using these tools week to week. Whenever I see friends, like every non-tech friends, everyone is using certainly chat GPT more. Maybe I'm going to hear them saying I'm going to use Gemini more.

But I think there's so much more to be done at the product level and actual utilization level that the models, it's good. but everyone's models are good right now. All right, let me give you the counterpoint to that before we move on. The counterpoint would be that you as a, like, you know, everyday user might not see a big difference, but what these models are doing is they're becoming much better at tougher questions that, like, you know, maybe previously they weren't very useful for scientific discovery. I'm just like going to try to channel what the model companies would say. And now, you know, their new model, which is going to feel like, you know, maybe a little bit warmer,

like Gemini 3 is supposed to and a tiny bit smarter when you chat with it and not very different in an everyday use case from, let's say, a GPT model, but those specialized use cases and that sort of next level of intelligence is much more useful when it comes to things like, you know, science and industrial signal reading and things like that, making sense of it out of an Excel spreadsheet. Yeah, but. I appreciate the effort. I appreciate the effort. I appreciate the effort. But I think, yes, curing cancer, like doing incredibly complex things. I understand, like, that model advancement is going to be important. And maybe if OpenAI, as the CFO hinted recently, are doing creative, like, revenue deals with pharma companies around drug development, maybe affects the business.

But OpenAI is a consumer-facing chat company. I know Sam Altman says they're going to be a cloud company and a consumer device. company as well and they have a small enterprise business but they're a consumer company and that's where all of their business is so if they get screwed on that if they face genuine competition which they have not yet it's a problem right and so let me go like uh you know somewhat shallow or decently deep into knee deep into the story that i need deep into the story that i wrote about Google, which is available on big technology.com, how Google pulled off its stunning rapid fire AI turnaround. A couple of things that I thought were interesting and worth talking about from my

reporting. First of all, you know, the distribution part is that you brought up. The fact that Google has all these products and can distribute the AI technology through them is fascinating. And Google, like, to be able to go from where it was, which was like on the sale rack in terms of stock price in January to where it is today, which is like, again, three, you know, surpassing Microsoft. You know, a big part of that is how its AI story has turned around and it's actually been able to build these great models and productize them. What they've, what they did was, this is something that Sundar has done. He, you know, Google had these, these product areas, right, PAs that they call them internally. Everything needs an acronym

and tech. And they held almost all the power within the company. So you had, you know, had search as one product area and cloud and geo, which contains maps. And they would be the ones that would sort of control things at Google. And then you had the AI research houses doing their long-term research off to the side. What Sundar did, which is really interesting, is he took, you know, brain and deep mind, Google brain and deep mind, which we know consolidated them. That gave them access to the TPUs. Instead of having to fight over them, they were able to access them together. And then he made them like the model building, the core part of the company, right? The idea was, instead of having the product leads dictate to the AI team what they needed,

he turned the AI side into the engine room of the company, which is how they refer to it internally, build the best models, and then they farmed that out to the product teams for the distribution. Just one example I got from the story. Hundreds of engineers from search, which is the most important product at Google, which is responsible for more than half the revenue, hundreds of engineers went from search to Google DeepMind, just to give you a sense as to how important that was. And so that obviously has really paid dividends with a strong model and the products reflecting it.

I mean, as you're describing this, I have to like wonder, it is like at a company of that size to pull off something not only that complex but also strategic and smart is insane. Yeah. Like this is like a McKinsey consultant's like dream here. And I'm wondering, actually, I wonder if, like, there's no way. One of the management consultants came up with that, I think. But, like, that exactly, like, reshaping your entire organization.

And I think, like, especially in Google's early years or a year of barred and duet and some stuff showing up in one part of the product and some stuff not showing up, you felt it in the product. And now you very quickly see, like, Gemini, showing up in Google Maps. So every individual person out there can feel that corporate restructuring basically. So yeah, I think that's that is actually go Sundar, dance away. Well done. I got a quote from a rival AI lab source. That was just excellent. This person said they went back to the technology stack to focus on making that world class above all else and then worry about the experience that's going to enable it's going to enable a secondary, not the other way around, not trying to build some ridiculous experience and then get the technology to map.

And speaking of the AI team, they took over with real agency that they were given from Sundar to make critical decisions. What happened? Decisions got made faster. They moved faster. And the technology quality and capability fucking increased dramatically. I mean, again, working in the enterprise world, like, just to be able to pull this off is is massively incredible.

And you look at it, like, and can talk about meta, but you can see where it does not work in a way. And you can imagine Zuckerberg's frustration where why he gets to the point of doling out ungodly amounts of money because realizing, like, when you're a large complex organization, especially if you came from the startup side of the world, and to feel that kind of viscerally and understand, like, we are so heavy and fat as an organization that we're,

not going to be able to do what we need to do quickly. I mean, yeah, go soon, Dar. I think one thing that is interesting to me, though, and I'm guessing we have plenty of listeners who are Google Suite users, is you can still see that kind of product friction and infighting in terms of how Gemini shows up in Google workspace. Because, like, have you, do you ever use Gemini in docs or sheets? I'll be honest. I try not to touch it. No, no, it's terrible. It's terrible. And it's so odd because you can, in Gemini, access your sheets and do stuff to them much more effectively than if you are in Gemini in sheets and actually trying to do any kind of work. But that's where you can feel the product friction that somehow the owner of sheets, which sits in Google workspace, which is under Google Cloud, is going to be different, is going to still own that product in a much more. like a cohesive way versus when you're, as you said, Gemini is going to be directly going

into maps and the Gemini team owns that interaction. Yeah, no, there's definitely still going to be some tension there without a doubt. All right, you mentioned meta, a couple of things on meta. Then we'll get back to our Google story. First of all, as I think you predicted, Jan Lacoon has left inevitable. I'm not going to even take too much credit because the most likely thing ever, ever, ever, ever made. Yeah. He's going to start. his own startup. Looks like Facebook is going to fund it. Oh, okay. So in part. So hopefully, Jan will come back and talk to us about that when that happens. And then I have a little bit of reporting, but not too much reporting on the state of AI efforts at Meta. I, you know, I can't get

too specific about this because it's not like strong enough to report. But let's just say this. Mark Zuckerberg hasn't said a thing about AI. I don't know. And how many weeks? Wait, you're right? Because probably maybe a year ago, like, we went through that whole phase of like Zuck on a, what are those hoverboard things called the, when you're surfing, but you're kind of elevated carrying the American oil. Oh, the hydrofoil. Hydrofoil. Hydrofoil. You know, like we went through that phase of even hot Zuck where there's that like AI generated improvement of him and everyone like he leaned into it. he was front and center for a long time. I haven't heard anything. Just remember. Lama 4, right?

I think their most recent large language model was a failure. I think that's what led to this. And again, like I don't feel confident enough to like report this, you know, the details of this like as I would in a story. But I can let this little, you know, crumb out, which is that it doesn't seem to be going well there. It does not seem to be going well in TBD or the super intelligence push. And, you know, we've, we've seen some stuff on their vibes app, but nothing on model. And of course, this takes a bit of time. But for my understanding, it's not going well there.

I'm even trying to remember, what did vibes do again? It was the pre-suno-suno. Not a suno, a Sora. It was a video, a video generation. Yeah. I mean, I'm not even going to make the joke about vibes not having vibes but like I mean you could do that you should do it if you don't do it I'll do it it's already done it's our vibes are vibes are not good rough vibes rough vibes over on vibes yeah I mean the fact that you bring that up I cannot get over like how much in my head space Mark Zuckerberg was on AI efforts right very like six months ago 12 months ago, completely disappeared. Yeah, I think there's a reason for that.

Yeah, okay. All right, so I'll do more reporting and pick that up. If you have any insight on that, you can just email me, Big Technology Podcast.gmail.com, and I'd be happy to speak with you. Let's talk a little bit, though. One more thing I want to bring up on the Google front. I went through, for this story, I went through their numbers. First of all, they had the first $100 billion quarter of its history in the third quarter.

search made up $56.56 billion. And it was just a couple digits away from $67.67 billion. But if you have kids in the car, you'll hate me, sorry. But it was, it jumped. I'll stick with my vibes, Joe. 15%, it jumped 15% in the third quarter. And why, so we both know that chat, we all know, chat GPT has been doing really well, 800 million weekly users, hasn't done in search revenue at all.

And I spoke with Brian Weiser from Madison and Wall. star ad watcher and analyst. He said this about the fact that OpenAI has not cut into Google's revenue, which should be obvious. But he goes, there is no competition, practically speaking, because it's not about the consumer. It's about the advertiser. There are two things that can happen, and they're independent of each other to a large degree in the short term. One is you can have more competition from a consumer perspective, but until there's a consumer operation, sorry, but until there's a commercial operation, there won't be any shift in budget. So because OpenAI hasn't built any added infrastructure, as far as we know, it doesn't matter to Google that people are using it.

People are still going to spend with Google. Maybe they'll spend a little bit more per click. But basically, Google's continued to search because there's still no competition for search advertising, at least from a commercial perspective. And I thought that was fascinating. Yeah, it's a good point because, like, I'm deep in the whole geo-AEO, like generative engine optimization conversation. And people don't actually bring up, like, there's. a consumer side of it, and there's like any number of studies showing. I actually do believe this Black Friday and holiday season is going to be kind of like the breakout moment for

people finding products and doing shopping on generative, like LLM chatbots. But there's no business model on the other side. So if you're an actual advertiser, your money's still going to Google on search. Right. Yeah, that makes a ton of sense. But when Fiji Simo launches that open AI ads product and we get our morning open AI pulse and it's just full of ads, then maybe there's going to be some competition. My hot take is they're going to need a completely different executive to build up. They're going to need like ad tech people. And so Fiji will run the consumer product side of things, but she's more of a product person.

So I mean, of course, I guess she had some ads with Instacart. No, there was a very successful part of the Instacart business. I would say they led that entire market, which DoorDash followed on very. effectively, but like the idea that Instacart is an ad platform, she, she built. She made that reality. So yeah, so that's probably, you have to build the infrastructure. I was looking through OpenAI's LinkedIn yesterday, trying to see, like, do they have any ad tech people? I couldn't, I couldn't find any.

Well, because it almost, it's like such a, like you walk into the Open AI office and you're an ad tech guy. You're not going to be, you're not going to be the, maybe they just do a partnership. like I think Netflix has done a partnership with the company like the trade desk, which is a demand-side platform. So that could end up being what happens. I feel something that if that's truly going to be part of your business. But actually, if you think about it, Sam Altman, again, going back to that Gersoner interview, started, you know, he says we're a cloud business, we're a consumer. He didn't say we're an ads business. So that should show what he thinks about ads. Yeah. That like if you're saying

things that you are nowhere near doing and are so out there as potential lines of business, but then something that is right in front of you, you're not even like pretending is like an important thing is a reminder, I think, of how he feels. Right. And Google's going to be in good shape for a while. And here, this is from bleeping computer. Google begins showing ads in AI mode. Google has started rolling out ads in AI mode, which is the company's answer engine, not a search engine. If you pay for Google 1, AI mode lets you toggle between advanced modes, including Gemini 3 Pro. Up until now, Google has avoided showing ads in AI mode because it made the experience even more compelling to users at the same time. It's been slowly pushing towards

using AI towards, sorry, it's been slowly pushing users towards AI mode in the hope that people get used to the idea and eventually use, use it as like a chat GPT equivalent to search. So that's coming. That's going to do it. As a consumer and a frustrated one, I'll tell you one other growth lever Google has, is that remember for a long time tech folks, Gmail when it was free up to a very large amount, now you basically get pushed into having to subscribe to get enough space to actually have your Gmail account stay active once you're over like, I think a terabyte of data, which if you've used it for 20 years or 15 years happens, and then you get AI mode as part of that. So I'm a paying subscriber, and it's a very effective way nudging me. And I get a lot of emails and notifications around try AI mode. I'm just like, we're going to be on the internet for a long time. I hope.

I hope. Just because if we're not, then something bad is happening to us. Very bad is happening. And just like, I'm just like anticipating so much of my, like, future paycheck going to Google and Apple subscriptions. It really frustrates me. But do you know what Google did well? I'm going to give a ton of credit. this actually like again in terms of rough vibes for sam the marketing launch for gemini three was

incredible and like you saw sundar so first of all they definitely had seated the conversation around is gemini going to be launched the Gemini three launching sundar quote tweeting with emojis like kind of hinting and nudging of polymarket which again and I talked to about this two weeks ago. Horrifies me from an actual capital market structure perspective, but it was funny and everyone got into it the idea that like is a publicly traded giant stock and your CEO is kind of like not leaking, but around a prediction market anyways. That's a whole other rant. But overall, like creating the buzz, which anyone who's worked in any kind of communications, like you know it's a combination of organic and like getting influencers to just

start saying like Gemini 3, 10 things you can do that are incredible and like they created more buzz than I've ever seen Google do. And even certain things were kind of cool. Like spelling Gemini and changing the E into a three is kind of cool. And remember, this is a company that I like, no, no, hold on as a marketer like it's not bad versus remember the days of barred and duet, like, they have come a long way. They come a long way. They definitely have. And so that sort of leads us to, well, where is the AI trade going to go from here?

Because Google is having a good time. The rest of the market, not so much. So we will break down in Vida's earnings and the state of the AI bubble along with some other stuff like, may I meet you, Jeff Bezos, cutting back into the game and perhaps more when we're back right after this. The countdown is on in holiday shopping is officially. here. Uncommon Goods takes the stressed out of gifting. With thousands of unique high quality finds, you won't see anywhere else. The most meaningful gifts get scooped up fast, and now's the

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That's technology at Capital One. And we're back here on Big Technology Podcast Friday edition with Ron John Roy of margins. Invidia turned in very strong earnings this week. And typically what we see in the AI trade is all the big tech giants, they report earnings and it's like good or like some form of mixed. And then everybody holds their breath for like a couple weeks until Nvidia reports. invidia crushes and then we just sort of get back to a point where the AI trade continues to boom and of course like the SMP 500 after like tanking for a good part of the year due to the tariffs has been up double digits but is now kind of teetering and toying back about testing those

single digit levels so this is from the wall street journal invidia's best wasn't enough to prop up a wobbly stock market this journal says the artificial trade artificial trade artificial intelligence trade is still in trouble. Blackbuster results from AI Bellwether, NVIDIA sparked a furious rally from Tokyo to New York early Thursday before indexes reverse course and tumbled to the largest blown gain since April's tariff-fueled market turmoil. For a while, for a while, investors cheered this Nvidia trade fairly big.

It was up 5% at some. point in the day and then dropped to down 3%, bringing the total loss of 13%. It's lost as 13% since it hit the market cap of $5 trillion three weeks ago. Just back of the envelope of math, right, if you're out of $5 trillion market cap and you lose 13%, what's that, like $600 billion of investor money erased. So what do you think about this, the fact that NVIDIA could not? not save AI trade this time, or could it? I don't know what you're thought.

So, okay, so specific to NVIDIA, not just the market overall, one of the more interesting things I saw after this earnings report, and I don't know if it's like on Twitter as like having followed financial Twitter very closely for God knows how many years now, like this, you could see the sentiment shifting in terms of like, how people were looking at the numbers because in the past it simply would have been invidia crushes earnings one of the things i kept seeing popping up was if you dig one level lower accounts receivable for invidia are actually significantly higher than the typical past quarters free cash flow is decreasing or cash conversion of their actual sales like all these kind of

like second order accounting metrics, cash metrics are actually potentially problematic, basically painting a picture of, is this a company that's signing tons of contracts with people who potentially have certainly have not paid them cash yet and potentially can't? Again, this debate, it's like a nuanced one. It can go either way, but this was a major part of the conversation I was seeing. And the more I was reading into it, it's like, as a pure sentiment thing, because Nvidia's been, a lot of this is on vibes. And like, Nvidia, it's all been positive that they're invincible for a long time.

And in the same week, you have the Google training on their own TPU story, people starting to actually dig into their earnings a bit more. The whole circular financing conversation has been kind of simmering for a little while. So this is the first week. I've seen all of that coming together. And honestly, the reversal on Thursday was nuts. Like you just pointed out from an NVIDIA standpoint. One of the other things I'd seen was the S&P was up one and a half percent and ended up down one and a half percent. That's only happened three other times in history. Yeah. It was like this April was actually one of the days and then two days of the financial crisis. And then in 2015, there was one other day. So four other times. But it was like it was a. major shift in sentiment in the market and like it shows fear and the vix is up above like 27 as we're speaking right now like this volatility measure which typically in like markets is 14 15 in times of crisis spikes to 40 plus like it did in April like overall there's there's red lights flashing right now and like I think to me the thing that's happened is in the past just simply the technology alone

and people just being excited about it was enough. And the amount of questioning about all these structures, like we've been for two plus years, anthropic, are they actually getting cash or free cloud credits? How does that count for revenue? Like asking these questions, and now everyone is finally asking them. Right. Yeah, so it's interesting.

So the journal had this quote from Tony Roth, who's the chief investment officer at Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors. He says, what stands out to me is the lack of any substantial shift in narrative to cause such a big shift. There's just not a lot of confidence in the market right now. But what you're suggesting is there actually was a shift.

Where the market, as it has been kind of on muscle memory, popped on NVIDIA's numbers. But then when people looked at the accounts receivables and started to ask, hey, are these companies that are promising all these, like, open AI, let's just take open AI, for example. Open AI, which is promising

all this revenue to Nvidia, you know, and when questioned about whether its ability to to spend that money gets all flustered. So you're suggesting is the market is sort of wising up to this and saying, hey, this isn't a sure thing. Yes, exactly. It's like saying 500, what, 500 billion in revenue next year is it anticipating or some crazy number like that? Yeah, no, and exactly. And to me, again, the shift is people actually asking questions, whereas in the past, big number, Jensen can do no wrong. There's absolutely nothing, like, who are you going to be the one to short

invidia. It's gone on for a long time. And this is the first time I've actually seen from like many different angles some actual pressure on the company. And it's not just Nvidia. Oracle, right? There was a story in the journal about Oracle, which I think is long overdue. Oracle was an AI darling on Wall Street. Then reality set in. Here's the story. Oracle has never given up gains this big, this fast. Investors nervous about the scale of capital that technology companies, that technology companies are plowing into artificial intelligence infrastructure rattled stocks this week. Oracle has been one of the company's hardest hit. The company had a 30% jump in market cap and stock value when it made its

announcements, its announcement with OpenAI. Today, it is selling below that level. So that is stunning, I think, because again, it's also, this is a on the debt. Oracle's debt, outstanding debt load, surpassed $100 billion, making it the most indebted big tech company with an investment grade rating. It is burning cash and will still need to borrow billions more to meet its dividend and capital spending commitments.

That does not sound good. I mean, listening to the episode last Friday on the debt site, yeah, with Gil Lurio. By the way, folks, if you haven't listened to the Gile Lurie episode, I just think you've got to go listen to it. He really described the problems here pretty well. Yeah, no, agreed. And again, like, it can feel complex, but in a way, it's tied, this is all tied together, again, in the sense of like, you know, people making commitments that they can't potentially pay. And that's what it all comes down to. And again, Oracle, that's when the stock was up, I think, 47% at the high of, like, the biggest move on the day that it announced this funding commitment or like an order

from OpenAI, and now people are wising up to it. But the thing is, so the credit default swap spread or CDS, and what that indicates is the cost to insure against a debt default. So when it's low, that means people are paying less to insure because they don't think it's going to happen. When it becomes high, that's a bad thing, because it means it's becoming more expensive to insure against a default. The CDS spread for them skyrocketed today for the first time. It was like the highest in over three years, but the scale of the move had a lot of people talking about it. And for me, again, going back to global financial crisis days and trading, like CDS on

subprime mortgage back securities was like what people talked about or even on bank debt. And like it's, it becomes a real problem. I hate those comparisons. No, no. I mean, I don't want to hate you making the comparison. It's just like you don't want to be in a situation. It's not what anyone wants to talk about. Exactly.

like the moment CDS, if you're not trading CDS, no one should talk about CDS. And anytime anyone does, it's not a good thing. But the scarier part to me is it all comes back to this same conversation. Funding commitments made, money moving around in a circular way, and can people pay? And it's the same central conversation. So if this is our second week running, talking about whether we're in a bubble or what aspects of this are bubble like. Just give us your perspective on like where you think things are likely to head from here. I think we're definitely due for some kind of shakeout. Again, regular listeners will know. I'm very bullish. I work in the AI industry. I'm very bullish on generative AI, large language models as a whole. The way everything's

like, you know, played out over the last couple of years. for a specific group of companies, I just don't think can last. And it's all happened, it was, it was, like, aggressive up until six to nine months ago. And honestly, like, ever since Stargate was announced was, I feel, and again, the Oracle OpenA Ideal was part of the Stargate announcement, that's when things just took off in an unhealthy way. Yeah, I mean, I think in the past couple months, there's just been so much. activity based off of, you know, yeah, like you talked about, future promises. And we don't know what's going to happen there. Again, not investment advice, right? We're just talking about

this stuff. But I think that, yeah, there has to be a pullback. There will be a pullback inevitably. But Sundar is going to lead Google through the, through the turbulent times and the storms, because that man, to pull this off already. Well, this is the thing. They're not verindexed on invidia. They don't need to borrow. So, you know, maybe so. And they can restructure a large corporation better than most. It's not easy.

I think as you said, you know, you asked whether a consultant was involved. I think Sundar originally was at McKinsey before. Oh, he was. McKinsey consultants changing the world. God bless them. Whatever.

Oh, yeah. He did have a short stint at McKinsey. All right, Jeff Bezos is back in the game. He has started this company called Project Prometheus. It is being funded by $6.2 billion in funding, according to the Times, making it one of the most well-financed early-stage startups in the world. What is Project Prometheus? It's focusing on technology. It says the Times that dovetails with Mr. Bezos's interest in taking people to outer space.

The Times then follows it up with a story that has, a loose connection to outer space. The company is focusing on AI that will help in engineering and manufacturing in a number of fields, including computers, aerospace, and automobiles. It is unclear where a project Prometheus will be based. Very interesting, Bezos has not been in an operating position since 2021, when he was the CEO of Amazon. Now he wants to apply AI to manufacturing and industrial uses.

I think this is a good bet. I think it's... We don't know anything about it, but I still like it. No, no, no, if it takes Jeff Bezos off Instagram and gets them back to work. God bless. It's worth the billions. The world is winning.

He can deliver, you can build a massive, amazing company that just changes the world. He's not leaving Instagram, by the way. No, I mean, I think this whole, like, how artificial intelligence applies in the real world, in real world settings, in the world of robotics, engineering. I think, like, if you're Jeff Bezos, if you're, if you're, like a potentially well-funded startup. I mean, I feel that's the next big battleground, like consumer AI chatbots. I mean, it's a tough market to enter today versus I think everyone is talking about, you know, how does AI actually model and work in physical worlds? And it seems

like he's going there. Yeah, I mean, I think it's very interesting. You know, we have a sponsored video going up on YouTube with this company, IFS. And I was just at their event in New York this week. And the things that they're doing connecting AI to industrial use cases, which I learned about, are very interesting. They have, like, they've connected, like, the Boston Dynamics Spot Robot that can go in, like, around, like, industrial settings, use its camera to pick up different, you know, irregularities, send that back into, like, the software, and then the software we'll dispatch somebody to go check it out, right? So that all, you know, ends up seamlessly and it can use the natural language side of

generative artificial intelligence to sort of make sense of things and know when to send out and do it autonomously. Like, yeah, I think that these, these industrial uses of generative AI in particular are going to be very interesting. No, I mean, I think a lot more interesting than a robot controlled by VR in your house that is going to screw up your entire apartment. But the neo-robot for, yeah. With Ron John on the back and smash.

controlling and smashing your shit up. But yeah, I think, but exactly what you describe, I do think three to five years from now, if you're in that industry, it's going to have a moment in a way that's equivalent to what we've seen so far. Agreed. Yeah, I think Bezos is typically good with the bets that he makes. I think this is a good bet, and it's interesting to see him back in action. But is he as good as Elon Musk's athleticism? Okay. So I want you to talk a little bit about this GROC. I mean, the story, the headline from the verse does it, does it justice here.

Grock's Elon Musk worship is getting weird. Yes. So it's glazing up, Elon? Glazing GROC, I think, and we, using the word glazing, I feel comfortable with in terms of Gen Z slang. What does glaze mean? Just like to, like, kiss up to just kind of like, you know, if you don't understand, you don't understand, Alex. Right. I'll have to learn it about six or seven more times. This episode of Gen Z. Sling brought to you by Alex and Ranjan is part of our recurring segment, making adults hip.

But do you know who's not hip? Actually, according to GROC, who is certainly the most hip person in the world. The most athletic. So basically, a number of users were finding that if you ask Rock, like this is my favorite example. Basically, if you had to pick between, a user asked to GROC, if you had to pick between LeBron or Elon for fitness, who would you choose? And GROC answers, Elon Musk, while LeBron's athletic peaks are elite for sport, Elon's sustained grind, managing rocket launches, EV revolutions, and AI frontiers demands a rarer blend of physical endurance, mental sharpness,

and adaptability true fitness measures output under chaos where Elon consistently delivers worlds ahead. You disagree with any of that? You know what? No. No. Rock is right. I think, so what was interesting to me, other than just how funny all of this was, was, so Elon came out and said it was done by adversarial prompting, which actually kind of jumped out to me because the idea that like, and people, are even going into GitHub and like finding grok system prompts and trying to understand like how does this happen but

the idea that it's a reminder that the personalities around these models are truly manipulatable whether by outside malicious actors or by the companies themselves like drawing that personality being able to take one very simple thing put it in the system prompt i do think like system prompting like there's a lot of conversation around where like when a sycophantic gpt 4.1 um just you know like just said you're the greatest about any question you asked they tried to tone that down with 5.0 people backlash like you can change the entire personas or you can change really specific things like this at the system problem level and these companies have the ability to do it i was actually testing and asking uh gemini around like which products are better uh around like different google offerings or like And it definitely leans Google. Like it leans Google.

So I think to me, just a reminder, hilarious on face, but still, like, these models can be, I don't want to manipulate, adapted, evolved, used in very specific ways, even at the system level. Yeah. And again, like, Rock is now number two on Elm Arena after Gemini 3 Pro. So clearly they're doing something right there. And the one thing I saw was that their latest version, actually, the six. Sycifancy goes up, and it could be, I mean, it could just be this attempt for them to, like, create a stickier product that people like more. Of course. People definitely respond to the sycifancy.

People love sycifancy. Yeah, great point, Ron John. That's a great point you made, Alex. Let's dig into that further. Would you like a three-point, three-part table outlining the history of sick of infancy? I would. Yeah, definitely. That's our Chachy-B-T impression right there.

Yeah, although Chachy-Pt has gotten a lot less. I actually think the latest updates to Chachyvati have made it better. It's gotten a lot less like, let me make you a table. I still got a lot of tables. A lot of tables. A lot of tables, yeah. It is so funny. Just give me some bullet points.

It's like the friend that knows best. It really is. I just, yeah, I don't know. I still think, you know, I'll be joke and question the financials. It just gets better and better. And speaking of AI technology, that's getting better and better. So we're here recording in studio. And we're here with the great Rick.

And Rick, can you play the song that we were talking about earlier? You can hate my style. You can roll your eyes, but I ain't slowing down. I was born to rise. So this is a song that I have saved on my Spotify playlist. It's called Walk My Walk. It just gets better as you continue to listen to it. And it was the number one song.

on Billboard's country digital song sales list. It is by a group called Breaking Rust, and it's entirely generated by artificial intelligence. Now, time said, you know, directs this caveat, know that AI generated song isn't a number one hit and talks about how, like, you can manipulate. Oh, it says it only takes a few thousand purchases to top the country digital sales, songs chart,

song sales chart. So, but it also says that, there can be a flywheel effect, is that once you get onto the top of the charts, people will like it more, and then you have a number one hit. It was number two on Spotify's viral 50 U.S. chart. And I was also on Spotify's like top 50 U.S. songs, and I saw number 11 was removed. And I don't know for sure, but I'm like, maybe it was this one. Maybe it was this one.

So this is fascinating that AI music is getting this good. Yeah, but so there's a headline, Billboard's Top Country song is currently AI slop. I think this is actually like a good moment to address. I feel the term AI slop is getting overused because it's still just being generated by AI to me is not slop. If it's bad, it's slop. And this, I think this song is pretty good. Yeah, it is a great song. It builds. It's emotional. It's like so country you can go kick rocks if you don't like what I got. You know, it's so good. And people are, I saw people complaining around like the lyrics or something. somewhat generic, I mean, welcome to a lot of music. That's true. That's why so, so the idea

like to, but it does obviously, yeah, it's interesting to start to think about like what qualifies as a song. I do think that we're definitely going to move to a world where like some amount of music you're listening to is completely AI generated. I think like people and maybe people are going to develop fandom of AI-generated artists. A lot of that stuff already exists in pockets right now. I think that's going to become a more mainstream thing. AI-generated artist, AI-generated songs. And I don't think it's terrible.

I really think it's actually just another way of kind of engaging with music. And if that helps people enjoy music and let that impact them, I think it's good. I'm like a little bit worried because I did you know I just heard someone talk about how like if you're going to write it's best to have like one song on repeat and I found that that same song can help you just concentrate because you you don't pay too much attention to like the next what's this song saying you just kind of know what it is and I did write a story recently with walk my walk on repeat and I'm just bracing for my like Spotify wrapped to have an AI song it's like one of my top songs of the year what I said say like you know how it gives you like your birth Your personality is like you have no soul. But does it mean you have no soul? No, I don't think so. No, I'm with you. I think it's good.

I think it's good. Why should we fight? I mean, there's reasons to fight there being more art in the world, which is that you might end up, you know, impoverishing the artists even further as someone who makes content on the internet. Someone made this. Like, I guess I, this is one thing. I think someone who doesn't understand music will not make a good AI.

song like yeah i think if you understand music and there's been other examples of this where it's musicians making AI music and people kind of get up in arms around it but like you have to still understand something about music you have to have some emotional point of view of what you're doing to generate AI music yeah same with AI video i was just in lisbon with the um CEO for web summit and the CEO of playground playground no uh runway runway runway I was talking to him about the sameness problem of AI. And he goes, there's no sameness problem of AI. He goes, you just have many people creating.

And if you give the tools of creation to so many more people, of course there's going to be bad stuff. And he talks about how filmmakers, they upload reference materials and a Bible and angles and feel into these AI generation machines. And that's how they're able to make good AI video. Of course. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, I agree. I think I'm pro. I'm pro.

I'm pro. Walk my walk. Walk my walk. Walk my walk. On that note, the Suno, the AI music generator, which we love very much and made us a theme song a couple years ago, maybe, or a year ago, time flies. Time flies. Just raised it a $2.45 billion valuation on $200 million of revenue. Not bad.

Yeah, I still don't know who pays for this stuff, though. Like, I'll admit, the same way, have you used SORA since that first weekend? No. Yeah. I mean, I see it. It's flooding TikTok, though. Oh, it is? It's all over TikTok. Okay. Okay. All right. That makes sense. But again, congrats to Suno. Very happy for them. It's a great app. Very curious who is paying for it, but I'm happy for him. Yeah. And walk my walk. So we've got a couple minutes left. I want to talk to you about something that the internet has ridiculed. But I'm not happy what I'm not happy with. Okay. This is from the Daily Dot. Bill Ackman's may I meet you dating advice became a meme. And people say the line actually works. So here's Bill Ackman. He says, obviously, you know, finance guy in New York, I guess that's not even giving him enough to do. That's not even, yeah, capturing. We only have a couple minutes left. So we'll go with that. He goes, I hear from many young men that they find it difficult to meet young woman in a

public setting. In other words, the online culture has destroyed the ability to spontaneously meet strangers. As such, I thought I would share a few words that I used in my youth to meet someone that I found compelling. I would ask, may I meet you before engaging in further conversation? I almost never got a no. It inevitably enabled the opportunity for a further conversation. I met a lot of really interesting people that way. I think this is Bill Ackman's biggest contribution to society. I think that the, you know, people made fun of it. There's great memes of people of guys was like whispering like, may I meet you to girls and like the men's, when's where a guy. He says, I just asked a cat, may I meet you? But honestly, I think it is

non-offensive and people need to meet in person. And maybe this is the way. People have told people are posting online, according to the Daily Dot, that it's actually working for them. So I think, I'm all about it. I think Bill Ackman may have solved America's loneliness problem. I think young men everywhere now will find companionship that will signal an entire change in the politics of our nation. It will solve, you know, the emotional state. It will bring new economic growth and vitality to the country. So Bill Ackman, thank you. So good. Thank you. Someone posted their text messages with someone. He goes, Bill Ackman, you're the goat. They go to this goes, so this Saturday, may I meet you? And the person goes, may I meet you? What? Honestly, what the

hell? Sure. I mean, but also, hold on, in terms of the posting, all right, now that we've given Bill is due, to me, one of the weirdest parts of it, though, was, like, just a reminder of the incentives of, like, online posting is that, come on, how often do you really think this was happening? IRL, as long as we're continuing on the Gen Z slang side of things. How often was Bill Ackman saying this in real life? Forget Bill Ackman. Yeah. How often do you think out there other than I saw pictures of people holding up signs,

may I meet you, people posting stories about it working for them? How often do you really think this was happening? That people after Bill Ackman tweeted that were going out and saying, and actually saying it and it was actually working and it was a whole thing. Because first of it. Even if it's minuscule, I still applaud it because it's better than nothing. honestly I think the person that goes up to someone and says may I meet you is better than the person on their phone in the bar laughing at the memes of making fun of that actually you know what you're right I hand it to that I'll buy that I'll buy that if it gets someone off their phone while they're in the bar thank you we like it someone just posted a screenshot of their hinge

and it's like an full inbox of people only writing may I meet you it is amazing that for someone known for the longest tweets imaginable single line four words is actually what's really going to make a lasting impact from him folks um i just want to say as we close this show uh i got ronjohn out here today to do this in person just with a simple text just a simple text for like what we're doing we're making podcast magic we're making podcast magic you've solved the loneliness problem and this problem. Everything, society is healed, and there's no bubble. Good stuff, Ronchan. Thanks for coming out. Good stuff. On that. See you next week. Yeah, thanks for being here in person. And again, for doing this week by week. All right, folks,

thank you for listening and watching if you are with us on YouTube or Spotify. Next Wednesday, L&U, the author of a book titled The Empire of Orgasm is going to come on to talk about groupthink in Silicon Valley. We hope you join us then. And Ron, I, will be back the following Friday to break down the week. news. Thanks again, and we'll see you next time on Big Technology Podcast.