Big Technology Podcast - Will Big Tech CEOs Win Their All-In Bet on Trump? — With Saagar Enjeti

Episode Date: February 19, 2025

Saagar Enjeti is the co-host of Breaking Points. He joins Big Technology podcast to asses whether the Big Tech CEOs will win their Trump bet, assessing the stakes involved, the positioning, and the likely outcomes. We talk about Tim Cook, Mark Zuckerberg, Sundar Pichai, Jeff Bezos, and, of course, Elon Musk. Stay tuned as we discuss how the U.S. and China will handle the AI battle, especially after DeepSeek. And we end with a fun back and forth on Apple Intelligence and The Vision Pro, of which Enjeti was an early buyer. Hit play for a fun, thought provoking discussion on tech's high stakes gamble.

Let's check in on Silicon Valley's Trump embrace, the U.S.-China AI War, Apple products, TikTok, and plenty more with Breaking Points host Sager and Jetty. That's coming up right after this. Welcome to Big Technology Podcast, a show for cool-eddit, nuance conversation of the tech world and beyond. We are joined today once again by Sager and Jetty. He's the co-host of Breaking Points, which you can find in your podcast app of choice or on YouTube, highly recommend it.

I've been looking forward to this conversation for a while. We're going to talk all about how the tech CEO's Trump bet is going to pay off, or maybe it won't. And we'll also talk about U.S. and China fighting over AI and then a bunch of other issues that Saga and I have been texting back and forth on including how bad Apple intelligence is. So Sagar, great to see you. Welcome to the show. Good to see you, man. Thanks for having me. It's good to be back. Great to have you back. All right. Let's start with the tech CEOs and Trump.

We saw them all at the inauguration sitting like peas in a pod, Zuckerberg, Bezos, Sundar, Elon all together. And then I listened to your reaction right afterwards on the Realignment podcast, which is another great show that I recommend. And I was sort of surprised to hear you talk about how this might not be the wisest bet for them because the vibe might shift over time. So just give us like your perspective on where things stand with them and where you see the risk. Yeah, I think just connecting those comments, what I was getting at is, there's just this sense of nakedness from all of this, which I personally find really gross. And I try not to hold myself up as too partisan or anything like that, but I know a lot of people

who are very explicitly partisan. Nobody's buying this, okay? Like, let's just all be very honest. Like, we can all understand that outside of Elon, the rest of them are doing this purely for business purposes. And they may be correct in the short term, but there's just something really dizzying for the American consumer, for the shareholder, for the employees, for the leadership of these companies to go like record scratch every single time that there is an election, right? So 2014, we're libertarians. 2016, we're pro-censorship or whatever you want to call it. And then DEI, and we're leaning in this entire time. And then we're canceling Trump and we're doing Libra, and we're doing oversight, whatever the, do you remember that one?

Your oversight board? Oh, when Zuckerberg had his, like, quasi-supreme court thing, and then it was all fake, and then Biden, and then, and then we're pushing against Biden, but only because we're kind of upset about Lena Khan, and then now we're name-checking the CFPB on Rogan, and we're admitting, so it's like, what is happening here? You know, this is just, and I just outlined eight years, so I, I, think what I meant by it is there's a way to just do this, I think, by just being genuinely principled.

And ironically, Apple seems to be the one that I think has handled this the best. So Tim Cook, you know, I'm not saying his company hasn't been woke or whatever, but the thing is, is that if you read that book, I forget exactly what it's called, after Steve, the New York Times author who did that book about Apple, he did a fantastic job of laying out how. Now, Tim Cook did a masterful job of placate his employees, always calling up Donald Trump and giving credit to the Republicans. He is the ultimate, like, bipartisan warrior where he's got credibility with the left. But Alex, I'm sure you remember this. Immediately after the TCGA, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed, Tim Cook was like, hey, we're repatriating all this cash to America.

Trump was putting out tweets about Apple. Tim Cook very masterfully kept Apple iPhones out of the China tariffs that were happening. He had a direct line to Trump all throughout the entire administration. There wasn't anything in particular that he's done since to piss off MAGA. And I think what it gets to is that Tim Cook had an Apple in particular with their privacy first model. And even in some of their intro wars with Facebook, what they have shown is that they're willing to pick fights based on their own, like they have a framework. through which they view the world. And it doesn't seem as dizzying.

And so in a weird way, I really respect the way that Tim Cook has handled the entire Trump era. It doesn't seem as dizzying as the Mark Zuckerberg or the Sundar Pichai or even Bezos. I mean, it's just cartoonish, you know, in my opinion, to see these people flip so much on a dime. Yeah, it's definitely weird to watch, especially as a reporter covering these companies. I can't imagine. I remember being in the audience at one of Facebook's developer conferences, hearing Zuckerberg talk about how we should build bridges, not walls or something like that while Trump was being elected. And now, I mean, a lot of people, a lot of people did have shifts one way or the other over the eight years. But now just like being Trump fan number one on Rogan.

But that being said, here's the counterpoint. It's working out for them. It really is. Throughout all this flip-flopping, you know, they've maybe figured out that politicians in power just want to hear you say that. you're with them. And they're the most valuable companies in the world. I think that's absolutely true for Trump. I think what I'm just saying is that they're losing genuine democratic trust. Like, I mean, one thing that Zuckerberg, I guess I'll return to this. Do you remember Obama? I think it was 2012, State of the Union, and he's like, we're the nation of

Facebook, of Google. And America was like, yeah, we're the nation of Facebook and Google. There was a lot of trust, man. People loved Facebook, Google, like the Amazon. I mean, they're the nation. They were held up. I remember at one point, Amazon had some 90% type approval rating by the American consumer, the most beloved technology brand in the entire country. There was a sense that they were not only our best and their brightest, the juggernaut of our economy, but in the interim by, in the way that I think that they've handled their politics, I don't dispute that they won't get the tax whatever treatment that they want

under Donald Trump. I'm just thinking about, I'm taking them seriously. All of them tell us we're going to be a central. old company. We're going to the moon. What we've done so far is nothing. You know, listen to Zuckerberg and take him seriously. When he seriously believes that the most important work he's ever done is today on AI, on meta, like the metaverse and all of that. Look at the way at Google. Look at the CAPEX these guys have. Crazy. They are. Tens of billions. Right. I mean, what was it? 75 billion last quarter on AI spending that I just read in the in the journal. So like in

in their minds, they're making a century-long bet for the future. And I don't think that a great company should conduct itself this way. And you know, the way that I can compare it to is Wall Street, because Alex, you live in New York, and you've covered the bankers. And then Wall Street has been a juggernaut institution for over a century. And they have well-developed norms and ways that they handle both parties. They have ambassadors. Yes, they're shuffling and Jamie Diamond occasionally makes a fool out of himself a little bit, although I'm totally with him on the Zoom thing. Can I say that? I absolutely loved his. Yeah, we played it on a recent Friday podcast. It's basically the whole speech about Zoom. It's amazing. So good. I mean, I said this is what

I said. I said, like, basically, you know, I believe that workers should have flexibility. Like, if you need to stay work from home, stay with your sick kid, you should be able to do that without having to fight your manager. But what Jamie said was actually, like, objectively hilarious. I have an age, I almost have an age bias on this where I think everyone under 30 should have to into work. And I, I'm, maybe you, did you ever go to the BuzzFeed offices? Were you in person? Yeah, I did. I, for me, actually, so I also, I never got a journalism degree. So for me, I freelanced and then, first I was in sales, then I freelanced and worked my way into a staff jobs at newsrooms because I needed to learn from colleagues and editors in person. And I think

you're right about there's, there is, and this is something that Diamond pointed out as well. There's something about young people being in the office that if you're not there, you are losing out on a big development moment for your career without a doubt. I could not agree more. That actually is the part of his rant, which spoke to me the most. You know, I'm 33 now. So it's like, look, you know, I've made plenty of friends. And, you know, we're more established in our careers.

We can just reach out to people and meet with them. But there is something to be said about the office when you're 22. You don't know anybody else. You know your college friends. That's it. And you expand. You create a professional network. You learn.

You all grow together. It's really fun. You become a cohort, almost like a, mini-family and you'll introduce people through them. So I do think that's something, if you're 22 and you're starting out, my number one advice for you, do not take a remote. Get in the office. And especially if you're trying to do a job like you and I had, the newsroom is one of the best places in the world to grow up. Like it's so fast-paced, it's so fun. You absorb so much through osmosis. You learn a lot from your bosses. You know, by definition, it's like

an open environment, which is very reactive. It's just one of the most exciting places. to be. But returning to what I was saying is if when I compare the technology CEOs in the way that they're handling everything, it feels as if it's unmoored from a sense of like who they are and what they're trying to be. Whereas when I compare them to the Wall Street bankers, the hedge funders and all of that, they have well-oiled machines, networks, norms, principles, etc., in how they deal with politics, with principles. They're wired in as opposed to being so reactive. in the public. I just don't really believe that Jamie Diamond, who's been on the political scene since Barack Obama now, I'm a central figure in American politics, he would just

never have the heel turns that Mark Zuckerberg has had in just half the amount of time in the last eight years. So maybe I hope this is coming across. No, it is. It's definitely coming across. And you know, as we're talking about this, I think the real question that that comes to mind is, okay, so it doesn't look like they're suffering too much. They are flip-flopping a little bit, and that is hurting their image a little bit, and it's, you know, sort of maybe detracting from their ability to be great American companies. I think, you know, the thing that a lot of people are thinking now is we've seen how intensely they've gone toward Trump. And that's maybe the real question, is, and you mentioned this, I think, in your reaction right after

the inauguration. This is the United States of America. The political winds change. You know, at one point, Trump could never be the president, then Trump is the president. Trump won't lose, and then Trump loses because, you know, COVID happens and whatever. People rejected his version of leadership. January 6 happens. There's no way Trump will sniff the White House again. He is the president now. And then now it looks like, all right, he's going to, you know,

leave him there'll be eight years of JD vance. But we don't know that. And things change quickly. And it's been interesting, the magnitude with which these leaders have gone towards Trump. The fact that Bezos stepped in and blocked the Kamala Harris endorsement at the Washington Post. That Zuckerberg, you know, now is three hours only. Rogan talking about how the Biden administration yelled at him and he's really upset. Sundar doesn't

say anything, but, you know, he shows about the inauguration. He's there. And he, like, very hesitantly did anything political beforehand and talked about how disappointing he was about the election results after 2016. Now they've also fully gone towards Trump. I think this was your point. The political world wins might shift again and that could leave them exposed. Yeah. Yeah. That's what I mean because not only do they not have credibility with liberals and all of that, It's just that I don't believe you anymore. And there's something to that, which is really difficult, you know, for people like us who not only do coverage, like, I'm just not going to believe a word that they ever say.

It's just, and maybe I shouldn't have ever, but, you know, I've read a lot about these folks. I even gotten to meet some of them, which is kind of interesting. And there's just a slimyness that I'm now feeling at this point where I'm like, well, you know, when you give a whole speech and you bet your whole. company behind lean-in, like with Zuckerberg. I think I texted this to you. Oh, yeah. It's like, dude, like you hired Cheryl Sandberg.

And then he was talking about feminized corporate culture. I'm like, you are lit, like outside of Cheryl, you are more responsible for that than any individual in the United States. There's just the cognitive dissonance on that is crazy. And then I remember how much he used to hold her up as the icon of the company and backed all these lean-in stuff, which I mean, look, I've been against all that crap from the beginning, but my point is that it's just surreal to watch it. So then, like I've said in my political analysis, the winds of political change in America happening dizzingly. And part of the problem

is that we always have temporary amnesia. And so I give this example, you know, it is February of 2025 when you and I are recording this. Well, let's take it back to the last time a Republican won the popular vote. And let's say it's February. of 2005. What are my narratives politically? America's a Christian country. Get over it. We will never see gay marriage in this country.

Abortion will be over soon. We're neo-conservatives. We're into nation-building. Iraq will be a great democratic experiment. The American people want to be safe. 2006, the republicans get blown out in the midterm elections. It happens in the span of one year. Iraq goes south.

Hurricane Katrina is a disaster. of Social Security. Now Nancy Pelosi is the Speaker of the House. Barack Obama, four years later, wins a state of Indiana and Ohio and North Carolina. All right? So do we see how quickly things in this country can change? Things can go south and not even in 12 months. Joe Biden, his presidency, fell off a cliff in October of 2021. That was the first day that his approval rating switched from positive to negative. So, you know, it feels like quickly, you know, in the grand scheme, it kind of is, that's nine months. Like, we still have a long way to go to October. So that's part of what my problem is with the tech guys is, what am I

going to be hearing you say two years from now? Like, are we just going to yo-yo in between all of this? And they claim that they've learned their lesson, but I just don't believe it because of so many different turns that they've made in the last 10 years, you know. Yeah, they'll shift again. And also, like, Zuckerberg, yeah, Zuckerberg comments, like, I understand if you want to take a, you know, if you want to break from, you know, the previous political philosophy you had, but to talk about how your workplace is too feminized. It's just like, what? Too much. What are you saying? It just, just whatever. All together, it's kind of rude. Let's talk about the person who we think has real, a genuine political feeling here, and that's Elon.

I'm going to run this episode back to back with an episode that we had with Chris Hayes. And he brought up the fact that Musk, and I think a lot of folks on the left believe this, is flying too close to the sun. Actually, I don't even think it matters politically. Like, there's clear, it's clearly, uh, the case that Musk is taking a major risk here by being so close to Trump. A, you know, he could potentially upset Trump and fall out of favor and incur the wrath on that front.

We've seen that happen before. B, uh, you just think about the fact that again, the political wins will shift again. The next administration that comes in that's not aligned with Trump may say, hey, let's take a look at, let's, let's doge those spaces. contracts? Or why are we buying Teslas? Yeah. If you're whoever, if you're Gavin Newsom administration, you're done. Like it's, it's, I'm going to use the exact executive order precedent and all those contracts are getting canceled. This is not an endorsement, by the way. I'm just saying that's the world that we live in now. This is politics. Yeah. So how do you think

this goes for Elon? I really don't know. I'll, I'll be honest. I didn't even think we would ever get here. I'm already where we are. It's crazy. I really did not think that Trump would ever allow someone like Elon to upstage him. I guess my only theory of it is that Trump is most mesmerized and amazed by Elon's ability to attract the same level of detraction and media capture that he does, and that this is all a bunch of stuff that Trump wants anyways, so he would rather Elon absorb that. Elon, I think Trump also, no, I've covered Trump for a long time. I've observed him a lot, and I've, you know, and the thing is, and even own interactions with him. I feel like the thing he cares the most about is attention. And so

Elon is a lot like Trump in that he is a magnet of attention, a driver of conversation. I think Trump has really come to appreciate Elon's ability to shape narratives in exactly whichever direction that he wants. But, I mean, it's objectively true that he is flying very close to the sun. And there's a lot of risk for Elon politically. Because, you know, project 2025 is a good example project 2025 if we're all being honest basically had the blessing of the trump administration and a lot of people are going into trump and uh it was the defa it was the plan let's okay again we can the election's over we can all admit it's obviously it was the plan all along well uh when trump realized that it was unpopular he denounced it and then said that

nobody was ever going to work for him again whoever worked for project so he's you know very quickly would be willing to come out and to denounce anybody with attached to something that becomes unpopular. And that's another thing where I would say to Elon and the rest of the Doge crew and all of that is, listen, guys, like, you know, even if I were to respect some of the work you guys are doing and all that, you just got to be careful the way that you're taking all the credit on this, because if it goes south, 100% of it's going to be on you. It's a very non-Washington way of operating. So, yes, he absolutely says, setting himself up for a lot of risks, both in the future and not.

So I guess all I can think of with Elon is I think he just believes it. It's pretty clear. Like, he took the red pill a few years ago, much later than most, I guess, just went full on the way that he does with everything. You know, if you read some biographies of Elon, this is how he always is. He's always in. He's all in. He's all in.

He's in. This is all that he does. But the risk is also. having read some of that is he does tend to have falling outs with almost everybody who he's involved with, except for people like Peter Thiel and a few others. But even they, they bet on him, but they don't directly work with him. In terms of the people who actually directly work with him, there's not a very good track record. So I have no idea how it will go because it's already gone much farther than I ever thought it would. But I see big risks for Elon. I see

huge existential risks to his companies, to, I mean, to himself. reputation. I mean, I don't know. I mean, Alex, you tell me, because you've actually written about these companies. Like, if you're a Democratic administration and you're the board of Tesla, like, are you keeping Elon? Like, is it really, is that even, you can't? I mean, we're talking about a, you know, what's the market cap of Tesla and all? The existential risk of him to the stock at this point is just, it would be outrageous, enormous. Like, it would literally be a, almost a company-killing event. Well, actually, I'm going to revise.

I might still keep him. I mean, it is a story stock, but it's trading multiples, many multiples of Ford because Elon is there. And it was, you know, before the election, it was running up after the election basically almost doubled, right? I mean, just the increase is crazy. But the thing is, the story can reverse, right? Now all of that upside becomes liability, but the question is where the floor is.

And the floor could be much lower than it was before the election, because, you you have a lot of liberal voters who now have these bumper stickers on their Teslas. I bought it before I knew he was an asshole. You have a lot of Tesla dealerships in blue cities. And, okay, you have the cyber truck. And that is going to be a symbol of, you know, being conservative and being pro-Trump, about until Trump or if and when Trump turns on Elon. So it's very, very big risk.

I totally agree. I actually think that's the biggest risk. And also considering how that's the literal vast majority of his net worth. So it's like, that's everything. So I don't know. I mean, I remember when Elon a few years ago did that poll, and he's like, should I keep doing Twitter or should I go back to CEO of Tesla? I was like, bro, CEO of Tesla.

I was like, I'm a Tesla shareholder. I'm looking out for myself, man. Yeah. Well, but then he did hire his CEO of Twitter, but we all know that he's still calling the shots. Right. So I just keep laughing at the scene that happened where his kid, X, I think he told Trump to shut his mouth up and then picked his.

nose and pushed it on the resolute desk. It's like, I just can't imagine, I could never imagine Trump allowing that scene to play out without repercussions with it. Maybe anybody else, but Elon. I agree. And that's part of why the relationship dynamic is just odd. I don't know. If I was working for Trump, I'd be furious, by the way. I mean, if I was, if his press secretary or somebody like this, I want to answer questions about somebody else. I want to answer questions about people report to me who are controllable. So I don't know. But like I said, it's already gone so much farther than I ever thought. So I really have no idea where this goes.

The narrative that will come up if this goes longer is that Trump is old and Elon is basically controlling him and he's really the president. Right, which I think is a terrible narrative for Trump. I mean, this is where the liberals have a point. Like, well, okay, so the liberals are overstating it and they're like nobody voted for Elon. I'm like, well, I don't think that's entirely true.

They saw them as close as they were. Yeah, it was pretty close. Like, he was on the stage. He was at the election party. He was doing the spaces. You know, he was on Rogan making his case the day before they, like, looking directly into the camera. So I don't think it's true 100% nobody voted for Elon. I think a lot of people did actually vote and are excited about Doge.

But, I mean, nobody voted for him to have unilateral control. And that is where the risk comes with Trump is if Elon, I mean, I'm going back to Katrina, right? Which was, and this always happens. There will be a natural disaster. I don't wish it. We know that. Every presidency. there will be a disaster.

So let's forward, Alex, this horrible crash, which happened here in Washington, let's forward 18 months, even if, as you and I know politically, even if the Doge firings had nothing to do with it, politically, that's going to be a real tough thing to crawl out of. And so you and I could see exactly, like if anything, the administration is lucky to happen in the first week, because it's obviously had nothing to do with them. But let's say 18 months later, I mean, again, using the Katrina example,

Bush was crucified for bad FEMA response. The Biden people, remember, they were hit hard for the North Carolina floods and their lack of response. So I can just, I can see it on the horizon. Like, let's say there's a hurricane. And currently Doge is going after NOAA, the National Oceanic Administration, the guys who fly those planes into hurricanes. It's like, man, you just need one thing.

And if it don't do it right, even if it's not your fault, they'll hang it on you. And they will, I mean, especially with the media now aligned against you, with the Democrats. Like, I would not want to be in that position. Okay. One more question for you about Silicon Valley and the Trump administration. And then we're going to move on to AI. This is a question that I have that's been sitting with me. And it's like nice to have somebody who knows Washington to field it.

How influential have the all in folks been in this administration? And we also know that Mark Andreessen spends a lot of time talking about how involved he is. so how involved is he actually um well okay so no offense to the crew of all in but it's david and then the rest of them so like david is obviously very influential but you know this is a great lesson because i know there are tech people who are listening david has always been political david produced thank you for smoking remember david was part of the stanford review he's always had an interest in washington and in politics for years for He was interested, and I've known, I got to know David over the Chase of Budin recall.

I started interviewing him even, I think, before, All In, because he was starting to get involved in these elections in San Francisco and others. So the thing is, is that David swims and knows the world of politics very, very expertly. And by the way, I have zero inside information. So I'm not speaking from any place of this. It's just purely me analytically. But remember, he really bet the house on becoming somewhat of like an expert. If his detractors would say he's an idiot, whatever, on Ukraine. An activist.

Can we say? An activist, that's fair. He bet the house on becoming an activist on Ukraine. And I would say he is probably one of the single most influential outside voices on the Ukraine conflict in all of the United States. First, because of his influence on Musk originally, but then also for his involvement, the donation, the fundraiser for Donald Trump, and now as the AI cryptos are. So when you put all of that together, he really used his ability to both post, his public

profile and his past political experience to bring it together to be, in my opinion, one of the most powerful people we've ever seen in Washington, who is a representative of Silicon Valley. Mark Andresen, I also would say, is actually quite similar. Mark, even though being somebody who's been involved in tech for his entire life, literally, since he invented Netscape. But in that period, as you know, Alex, he always has been interested in politics,

as in especially the last decade from the Trump administration. He's constantly been tweeting not only about politics, but about a lot of the books and theories that he has about that. And his involvement, more recently in Washington, predates the Trump victory and really was, like, laying the groundwork,

for his involvement in his theories of government. So I definitely don't think that either, those two narratives are underplayed. And look, no offense, again, to the all-in guys. I got to meet them during the inauguration and all of that. But I just think David is far more influential. Of course, Chimoth and the rest of those guys, they went to the inaugural ceremony.

And to the extent that those guys have quote-unquote an end, it's because they have the popular podcast. But I would compare them more to, like, media influential, as opposed to genuinely politically influential, which David now is, as the literal, AI cryptos are in one of the most transitional tech periods in like modern history. Yeah. All right. So on this show, we've been talking a lot about deep seek from a technology standpoint. I'm actually interested to hear what the rise of Chinese AI is going to do to

US-China relations and the attempts to regulate or the attempts to bolster the United States AI industry. So why don't we do that when we come back from the break right after this? Hey everyone, let me tell you about The Hustle Daily Show, a podcast filled with business, tech news, and original stories to keep you in the loop on what's trending. More than 2 million professionals read The Hustle's daily email for its irreverent and informative takes on business and tech news. Now, they have a daily podcast called The Hustle Daily Show, where their team of writers break down the biggest business headlines in 15 minutes or less and explain why you should

care about them. So, search for The Hustle Daily Show and your favorite podcast app, like the one you using right now. And we're back here on big technology podcast with Sagar and Jetty. He's the host of Breaking Points. You can find it on your podcast app of choice or on YouTube. So Saga, I'm curious, you know, you've been dissecting what deep seek means for U.S. global AI policy. You know, obviously it sort of took a lot of people off guard the fact that China, who for the Chinese companies for a long time have not been able to build the best models. All of a sudden, jump in. they have a model that reasons about as well as the best that the U.S. can offer is open source and

is cheaper to run. So what are the geopolitical implications of that? And are we starting to already see it play out? Oh, absolutely. And as you could already see from David Sacks, we were just talking about, he had initially had a response there from the White House. This caused like global market reaction. Already, J.D. Vance is in France, giving speeches about AI. I really do believe this will be, you know, in the way that the Clinton presidency is largely remembered for its transition to the internet, I think that in the long term, we may view the Trump years at the second administration as the AI presidency in terms of the way that our economy and our life and all of that were transformed. And in that, I think there's a lot going on here. And first and foremost

is an interesting clash within technology itself. So this will be a huge fight going forward. around export controls. So a lot of people were passing around after the Deep Seek revelation, but that Alexander Wang clip where he was like, look, they obviously have more NVIDIA H-100s than they can admit because they're going around export controls. And then I was not even aware of this, how 20% or whatever of NVIDIA revenue is in Singapore. I'm like, yeah, I'm sure Singapore leads a lot of chips. It's like, oh, fascinating, right? It's obviously leakage in terms of of export control to China. It makes sense, too, why NVIDIA was pushing back so hard in the later days of the Biden

administration against tightened export control rules. I hadn't followed it fully at the time, but putting it all together, it's starting to click how much of revenue that they alone are also kind of relying on by a trans shipping chips. So at a broader level, we have like a couple of choices and interesting paths. Like, one would be, okay, we should just go full open source. These companies should stop individually chasing the $75 billion per quarter on AI. We should focus on efficiency. Well, one of the tells to me that Deepseek was not, quote, unquote, as revolutionary, as people said,

is because the companies are still spending the money. And so what they took away from that, as I understand by Open AI and others, is that they saw that their model was used by the Deep Seek hedge fund to train off of. And so actually, what's happening is the net effect of what happens whenever you have kind of breakthrough technology. If we think about it like the atom bomb, well, what happens is that inevitably you have scientists copying other scientists, and so that leads to closed circles, secrecy, closed models, national security concerns, and overall like geopolitical.

political, uh, implications of your individual business decisions such that it no longer really becomes about Nvidia or meta stock. It becomes about the United States of America. And I think this will be a very difficult thing for Nvidia, for meta for Google and all of them to deal with, because I think that in their hearts, at least in the past, they really were globalists. And it makes sense, you know, meta is their user base. The vast majority of them are not Americans. But you're headquartered here, sorry. And Mark Zuckerberg, you're waving your American flag around on your surfboard or whatever. So you've planted your flag quite literally. How far we've come from him trying to name his kid after she. Yeah, that's right. Yeah, after doing that as you and I know,

which is even more hilarious in retrospect. So putting all of that together with the deep seek thing, you basically see it laid out by J.D. Vance in his policy speech, where he's like, we want America to be the leader in AI. We will not allow, you know, espionage on. our companies so we're going to see literal walls begin to go up much tighter export control a recognition that these companies and this technology is vital and of interest and uh i don't really think there's any way out of it to be honest because you know i was really thinking about it and it's like well what is the alternative because we could try to have some path of not going down that but it's very clear that the chinese um especially in the case of deep seek i mean this idea that it's

six million dollars or whatever to run. This is ludicrous. It obviously cost over a billion dollars to train the model before it eventually got to the point where it could run off of that six million. It's clearly subsidized and at least pushed and allowed by the Chinese government, who themselves, I'm not sure you've seen it, Alex, but the Chinese tech stocks are roaring on the Hong Kong stock exchange right now as a result of the Deep Seek thing. So the government has its own interest and control and all of that behind the scenes for them. And the Chinese are never going to move away from their own firewall model. So in a sense, you know, naturally the United States, especially to preserve so much of the enterprise value and the genuine technological

breakthrough doesn't really have a choice but to behave quite similarly. And I just think that's an inevitable kind of Thucydides trap of any great superpower competition on any technological basis. I want to ask you a similar question that I asked Alexander Wang when he was here, which is why is it such a strategic liability of China takes the lead on AI models? Like just take deep seek, for example. Yes, they definitely trained with a lot more money than they said they did to build this R1 model. However, the R1 model is like undeniably cheaper to run. And so now you have U.S. startups using that model to build products they probably couldn't build in the past. So talk a little bit about why it's so strategically important for the U.S. to have the lead in not China.

There's a couple different ways. I mean, first and foremost is just, well, actually, let me give you a really meta way that he's probably never going to admit, and this is the truth. America has decided that our retirement plan is number go up, and our numbers need to go up. That number can't go up if we're number two, right? if we're subject in the 20% of our GDP, which is technology, the fastest growing sector, the magnificent seven comprises what percentage of the S&P 500 gains at this point? It's like 20 to 25% depending on the day or 30% sometimes.

Let's look at this realistically. Like at a basic level, we don't have a choice. Like we have all chosen that America retires because the number goes up and the number's not going to go up if we're not the leaders in the technology because it means that we won't be able to unlock the enterprise value and have all, you know, all of the benefits of network capitalism and AI. But at a more like basic level, the United States, especially with respect to technology, with research and everything, the implicit, you know, deal that we've all made is that, like I said, we're not going to have government retirement or government health care

or any of that. But in exchange, we will be the leaders of the global economy of the world. And, you know, rule the rules-based international order to the benefit of the American consumer. And so at a really like high level, strategic wise, it's the same reason why Sputnik simply could not be allowed to stand. It's because even if the terms and the way that we're fighting seem ridiculous, the notion of space supremacy by our adversary or technological supremacy beating us in that category just means their ability to compel our behavior. So at a very like meta level in terms of why it's strategically important, it really is, gets back to that Thucydides trap idea of we don't, when your adversary is to choose development down a closed path, which would allow technological

dominance over you. You either have a choice to like reach your hand out, shake hands, have some mutual agreement where that's simply not going to happen and have the trust, you enforceability in such a contract that you can ensure things stay smooth. That's not going to happen, unfortunately, or you have the chance to respond. And so, yeah, I just, I don't even think of it as AI. I think about it as the way I would any breakthrough technology. I would give you the exact same answer. Yeah, and there's been some talk that like, okay, well, AI is both a business, but it's also a weapon. And I am curious, like, you know, J.D. Vance recently said the fears about AI are overblown. So where do you stand on that question? I don't know. I think about it every day.

So every day I either am an alarmist or I just think it's all ridiculous. So you and I want how you go back and forth. And the same thing happens to me where I'm like this chat GPT can't tie its shoes. But on the other hand, you're like, oh no, this can control computers and build deep research reports like, oh God, what's going to happen? That's how I feel. So I use Claude. I'm a clawed guy. I can't really tell you why I just like the interface. For data analysis. We talk about it a lot. It's pretty nice to talk to. Like, it actually feels less bot-like. Yeah, yeah, I totally agree. And you know, for data, data analysis, look, I'm not the typical person. I'm not a coder, any of this stuff. You know what I really use it for? Personal finance. I go, how much money

of I spent on groceries this year? And I'll be like, here, this is your breakdown. Oh, that's a pretty cool use case. I haven't heard that before. So you, like, upload your like bank statements and talk to about it. So I have a budget app with has all my transactions. And then I downloaded my transactions for the last seven years, uploaded it to Claude. And I go, So how much money do I spend on milk? How much money do I spend on eggs? What's my average burn rate on travel? And then also you can calculate to the literal dollar, not only you're spending,

but then you're not your discretionary spending, your non-discretionary spending, and then if you're trying to budget and project, like, let's say, investments, I use it for investment analysis all the time. So I'll be like, if I dollar cost average $200 a month into X stock based on historical returns. What is my expected over a 10-year period? And it spits out charge. It's fantastic. Should I have it do my taxes? Like I'm thinking like I can just upload all my books and see what you can do. I know. The problem is legally, legally, you're, it's, you're getting dicey, right? So like, when I'm doing some bullshit stock analysis, like the stakes are not that high, but we're doing your taxes.

I mean, I would obviously double check. Yeah, I mean, maybe. You should try it. Tell me, tell me what you think. I'll keep you posted. Okay. So thinking about AI, um, do you, have, have, Have you ever used Tesla full self-driving? I haven't driven with it, but I've been in the car when someone put it on. Okay, so I have a Tesla and I have full self-driving. So that's where I don't buy the AI hype. I have been hearing for years, oh, this car is going to drive itself. No, it's not.

Tesla can barely turn left, bro. And even when it does, even when it does turn left, it turns left like a right angle, you know? Or just the other day, you'll love this example, because this just shows how dynamic and difficult it is to try and accomplish this problem. it snowed, and the snow got caught in the lights, the red light, like in the cup that holds the lights. So the Tesla could not distinguish whether it was red or whether it was great. So my eye could. I could tell, like, oh, right up there's a little bit of red light, green light.

But there's so many different things, or there's areas where I live where you can park in this lane sometimes, but not others. And so the Tesla, if it sees it open, will want to get into that lane, even though I know, you know, like, oh, it's 4 p.m. I can't get there. My point is, is that I've, even with all of the hype, and even with, let's be real, the best self-driving technology available in the U.S., it's not that useful unless you're on the highway, is it that much better than Toyota's or than Honda's assisted autopilot? Yeah, it's good. It can change lanes and stuff like that, but I've been in a BMW that can change its own lanes. So my point is, is that even with Tesla, which has thrown billions at this problem, which is the world's leader and all of that, I've owned this thing for a couple of years

and it's definitely gotten better but it's not that great and that's as in I'm not taking my hands off the wheel anytime soon especially whenever you know if you have your loved ones or others who are you been in a waymo before? I haven't been in a waymower so I still want to do that

yeah I've been around them in Austin and but I think the use case is a little bit different just in terms of what they're allowed to do et cetera in terms of the definitely there's predescribed routes that they can take exactly and so that's what I mean in terms of they can do it because of the pre-described routes and their select area. But I'm talking about, I've driven

my car all across the entire country. And there's just so many cases where I go, ah, the driving, it just can't pick up the nuance of this whole situation. And so that's kind of how I feel about AI. On the one hand, you know, for years, everyone keeps telling me, we're going to conquer driving. We're going to conquer driving. I'm like, no, you're not. It's just literally not going to happen anytime soon. But the other, you know, I get to, I see this, you know, the AI safety people put up this report about they develop personalities and, you know, at a certain point what's so-called AGI may have already been reached and the ability to turn it off may soon be going past or, you know, the nightmare scenarios of like once they have developed

their own value systems, uh, that it's very difficult to program them off or even scarier is incorporating human value systems that we can't even all agree on into these things. So I think that the existential questions are important, but, yeah, I oscillate between being an alarmist and also just being somebody who's like, eh, is it really that different, or is it just a better Excel? You know, my black pill case for AI is, congratulations, you're all going to have AI-assisted Microsoft teams while you continue your consulting jobs, you know? I'm sure it'll do better data analysis, and I'm sure it'll increase efficiency. I'm sure it'll be a great tool, but I'm still a bit skeptical in terms of its ability to change everything about my daily

life. On your show recently, you had a very interesting analysis about how they started to develop their own value systems that AI agents would, sorry, AI models as they got smarter would develop their own value system. I mean, this stuff like is crazy to me. We also, we talk a lot about on the show about how AIs have started to deceive their evaluators. So if you're like trying to evaluate whether something's viewing to its value system and it's not, the AI will just sort of try to fake it so you don't reprogram it. I mean, this stuff is right. The cutting edge of this stuff is amazing. Yeah, I don't know. I really am torn. I like to listen to the technologists. I just keep my eye on a, I think what I do with AI is the same way I do about any subject.

which I know is controversial is I just read the whole gamut and I try and experience a tech for myself and then kind of see where I land. Right now I'm not yet a complete doomer. I'm not a it's going to kill us all. I still think that the dynamism and the experience of humanity and of our lives is still just way more complicated than it seems that

it's much more complicated than people might be led to believe. That's why I always use that car example of who could ever program in that it was a snowy day and that the red light gets covered or who could ever program in, you know, these time limits or, you know, even sometimes pedestrians and where they cross illegally. And I know that there's always some idiot

who's going to try here around 7 a.m., but the car is not going to know that. Even in terms of break speed, I found that. It breaks very hard, even when it doesn't need to. You got to try the Waymo and we've got to have you back on because the braking in the Waymo is pretty unbelievable. Where is Waymo right now?

San Francisco and Austin. It's in San Francisco. It's in Phoenix. It's coming to L.A., I think. It's in maybe four cities. But I'm sure it's just going to be all over the country pretty soon. It's expanding wildly fast.

So look, my number one argument against the fact that AI or against this idea that AI might kill us is Apple Intelligence. I mean, you use that stuff and you're just like, we're good. You basically describe the problem with Apple Intelligence messages

have yet to experience a single useful AI-summarized iMessage i mean it's the most visible feature in apple intelligence and it sucks um talk to me your your unvarnessed opinion about apple intelligence i i'm i am the biggest apple fanboy you'll ever meet as you know i bought the vision pro on day one okay yeah we're talking about division pro right after this yeah yeah okay okay all right division pro day one holder iPhone 16 whatever what iteration are we on 16 that's whatever i have 16 day one holder, day one for Apple Intelligence. I have never been more disappointed in the problem.

You know, I really should, I got to credit Marquise Brownlee because he's totally right. I'm an idiot. I'm the sucker. Don't ever buy a product with the promise of future product. And that's what they did with this phone, as they promised us all of these cool features with, like you said, text message summary, email. Oh, my God, my wife has, we have both of the same phone. and she actually uses the Apple mail app, and she's showing me Apple's AI ranking of her mail,

it's terrible. She had to turn it off, right? And so that's the thing I don't understand. I don't understand with Apple is I know you can do it. And you've got this market cap and you've got all this money and you're the one telling it, you're doing it the Apple way. You're like, we're going to look at it and then we're going to refine it the way that we always do with breakthrough technology

and we're going to make it the easiest possible thing and then we're going to roll it out to all of our customers you guys are going to love it and that's what they usually do but Apple intelligence has been a complete bust I'm an idiot for buying this phone it's really it's not different at all Apple AI summaries for my text messages are garbage literally less than useful I think the only thing it does

is burn more of my battery the use cases I've seen on mail awful do you use the action button Do you have the new one? I have the 15, but I don't really use the action button at all. Never use the action button, not once. I don't think I've used it a single time. There's so many things about this phone, where it's such a bust. I just don't understand how this happened.

Look, I've been doing this for a very long time, and I can tell you, I've never seen an instance where you have such a high-stakes presentation from such a prominent company that under-delivers to this magnitude. It is astonishing how bad it's been. 100% agree. It's horrible. It's horrible. The photos thing, that's what everybody's saying is cool.

Guys, look, this is where even with the Apple fanboy, Galaxy's had that for fucking five years. Like AI, AI editing and enhancement on your photos. The Galaxy's had that for years. Like, I don't know. I'm very, very disappointed in all of the Apple intelligence stuff, especially because like you and I, we use our I message and stuff for work.

and I literally just want to see the message because I know that the AI summary is so untrustworthy. So it's actually making my life more difficult. So I have to like unlock my phone and be like, okay, what did the messages actually say as opposed to the dumbass Apple and tells? I mean, it's been almost a year now, right?

I mean, I just, I can't even, I don't know what happened with this entire thing. I've thought about turning it off completely just being like, I don't want. these summaries. And they're always, they're so dispassionate, which is so funny, where it's like someone tells you they can't make an event and it's just like, you know, friend says no or something like that. And then, oh, the suggested comments too are always so stupid. It's like, oh, that's tough. No, it's like we can't let the AI take over. And there have been some even

better examples like on Twitter of people like sharing someone's like sent them like a breakup text and it's like just wants to be friends. Can you imagine being broken up that way? My God. Yeah, exactly. I just want to experience it in its own words. So, yeah, I'm very disappointed. Don't they have some new announcement?

What's that going to be? Is that the new Mac? Yeah, when this airs, it'll probably be live, but everybody thinks it's the SE, the iPhone SE. But you don't know, because Tim Cook says it's going to be a new member of our family of products. And it's like, I'm pretty sure it's just going to be the same member of your family products with, like, you know, a new chip in it, which great, but they don't have much

to announce anymore. Yeah, they just really don't. I don't know. I'm really bummed with the way that it's been. Like, I expected, I really thought Vision Pro was the start of something. Yes, I want to hear.

So before we go, let's hear your Vision Pro take. Is it a paperweight? Not for me. Okay. Because I have always defended it this way. I love to watch movies on it. And,

um, I love, in particular Apple TV shows, the way that, it's hard to explain to someone who's never used. used to Vision Pro, but Vision Pro on Apple TV has the function where you can put yourself in a movie theater. And so it literally, when I'm on my couch, I feel like I'm watching Severance or Masters of the Air or any of these shows like I am in the movies. It's incredible, especially

you have your AirPods on. But unfortunately, as you and I know, Apple TV, outside of Severance and a few other things, not great content. And so I wouldn't say, I don't use it as much as I used to in particular. Also, the software has not been updated properly in the way that I thought it would be. So it's getting a little bit laggy. So there's a couple of things which I'm not too happy about it. But I will tell you this, every once in a while, whenever I do need to do the, whenever I have a lot of research to do, so I love to use that ultra-wide function, where I have my laptop in my lap, and I can bring the desktop up and have like 10 different things that are all happening in front of me. That is genuinely cool.

Another massive use case for the Vision Pro is flying airports. When you're mobile, it's amazing. So have you used it on a flight? Oh, yeah, many times. Many, many times. You're definitely going to get comments. I'll say that. What do people say?

People are curious. Yeah. Well, the first time that I ever used it, it was kind of awkward because I was in cinema mode and the flight attendant was kind of talked to me. I literally couldn't see her, right? I couldn't see her. I couldn't hear nothing. Excuse me, ma'am.

I'm in a VR movie theater. She tried to put a drink in my hand because she saw me going like this. And I was like, I was like, what are you doing? I was like, what? I was like, oh, my God, I'm so sorry. I was watching. She was like, oh, I thought you wanted a drink.

She's like, I saw your virtual eyes on the screen and thought you were there. Especially if you're in economy class like me, because you don't have much room. So you actually end up kind of like a T-Rex in terms of moving your, like moving your fingers around, just being like moving stuff like this. And people are always very curious. They're always so curious about it. But I'm more of a use it in the airport guy for my laptop, like actually doing stuff while I'm on it.

So I like it. It's a bit bulky. That's my only thing that I'm upset about. But I see why people are disappointed. because I, again, the idiot thought that it would get better over time, and they haven't updated this thing at all, guys. Like for anybody out there, I can't even tell you how much they've just abandoned this thing completely.

So if you don't like any of the day one stuff on it, do not get it because they haven't, they've barely done any support or development for this thing, nor new apps, no new breakthroughs. It's genuinely disappointing what they decided. Yeah, I'm stunned they haven't updated it because that was always the promise. They had this device, it was going to get better, and I guess they haven't let developers in the way that you would expect. Also, developers have said no to them because they're so used to being raked over the coals by the 30% fee. Netflix, for instance, is like, oh, you want me to develop for you.

That's a funny idea. I'm not doing that. I will say you can just use Netflix and Safari on Vision Pro. I do it all the time. Yeah. It's actually super easy. Everyone made a big stink about the Netflix thing. Honestly, it didn't do anything.

You're getting me excited, though, because you know what? House of the Dragon season three is about to come out and when I bought the Vision Pro season two was coming out man when you're watching fantasy shows on the Vision Pro oh my God Apple also did a few remasterings of movies so you know that Tom Cruise movie

Edge of Tomorrow they did that for Vision Pro 3D plus in Apple TV so it's 3D while you're in the cinema thing dude that was that is one of the like one of the coolest cinematic experiences I've ever had and I was at home So my dream for the future is a shared VR so that like, let's say you and I were hanging out and we wanted to watch a movie that we'd both put the goggles on, but we could have a shared space and we could blow it up and then we could like kind of experience it together while also be able to like maybe see each other and be like, oh my God, dude, that was crazy. Because the problem with the entire Vision Pro right now is that it's just a singular experience.

It's only happening when I'm by myself. And TV is actually way more social than people think. Yeah, yeah, for me, like, I would buy if I could sit at like the 50 yard line, 15 rows up and watch NFL games. You can. That would be an easy buy. I've watched NFL in like 3D and it's amazing. If I could do that on the Vision Pro, I would pay for it. Oh, yeah.

But it's not there yet. I don't watch baseball, but some of my friends or not, no, no, basketball. It has a basketball. I think NBA had some Vision Pro thing. Oh, yeah. Dude, NBA on Vision Pro is apparently incredible. So I'd say I use it like once a week. uh or so especially right now severance is out i love to watch severance on it uh now i'm getting

hyped for house of the dragon because hbo has a they have an app specifically for the vision pro and they're the max app on vision pro is insane it's so good yeah it's oh my man we started this vision pro segment really tucking down to it and now i feel like running out to the apple store and correct it's not worth the money it's just not i mean it's 3500 is too much right The promise of it was not what has materialized. I have found a way to still use it, but actually a lot of my friends who have it, they don't even use it anymore.

It's literally a paperwork, like you said. I just love TV and I like to watch movies, so I've been able to appropriate it, but that's a shitload of money for an entertainment device, right? You could buy a pretty nice TV for whatever it costs. Yes, definitely. All right, folks, the show is breaking points. You could find it on YouTube or your app of choice.

Sagar, always great to see you. Thanks for coming by. Good to see you, man. having me. All right, everybody, thank you for listening and we'll see you next time on Big Technology Podcast.