BiggerPockets Money Podcast - Is Coast FI Riskier Than Traditional FI?

Episode Date: September 16, 2026

In this episode of the BiggerPockets Money Podcast, Mindy Jensen and Evan Lawler take a closer look at Coast FIRE and what it really means to stop aggressively saving for retirement while still working toward financial independence. They talk through what could go wrong, from market downturns and rising expenses to lifestyle creep and unexpected changes in your life or career. They also discuss how much flexibility Coast FIRE can give you, how to build in a little margin, and what to think about when deciding whether Coast FIRE or traditional FIRE makes sense for you.To go beyond the podcast:Interested in a Flat Fee Financial Planner? Go to https://biggerpocketsmoney.com/fipro/Interested in Learning More About Buying a Franchise? Check out: biggerpocketsmoney.com/franzyGet 50% Off Your First Year of Monarch by using code ‘Pockets’: https://www.monarch.com/pocketsConnect with Evan Lawler:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/the_financialfoundation/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@The_FinancialFoundationWe believe financial independence is attainable for anyone no matter when or where you’re starting. Let’s get your financial house in order!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What if you could stop aggressively saving for retirement today and simply let your existing investments grow until you're ready to retire? That's the promise of Coast FI. But is it actually as safe as it sounds? In this episode, we break down the biggest risks of Coastfire from market downturns and inflation to career uncertainty, lifestyle creep, and the danger of assuming your future will go exactly according to plan. Hello, hello, hello, and welcome to the Bigger Pockets Money podcast. My name is Mindy Jensen, and today I'm joined by my new co-host, Evan Lawler. As Scott and I have mentioned, we are incredibly excited to welcome Evan to the show as a special new co-host for Wednesday episodes. Scott and I are going to take turns hosting with Evan, so you'll see us bouncing back and forth every week. Evan is currently pursuing CoastFi himself, so these episodes will take a deeper look at what it really means to pursue CoastFi, the decisions to come with it, and the lessons that he's learning along the way.

You can catch Evan's new episodes every Wednesday right here on the Bigger Pockets Money podcast. So Evan, welcome to the show in a new capacity. Mindy, thank you so much. I am so excited to be here today and in the future going forward. This is an incredible community, and I'm really excited to participate in it. We love the idea of Coast Phi, and of course it's all unicorns and rainbows, so this episode will be very short. Is KOSFI too risky? No. All right. That wraps up this episode. I wish. I wish. So, Evan, before we jump into the nitty gritty of KostFi, can you differentiate for our audience?

What does Kosti mean and what does traditional FI mean for the context of this conversation? 100%. Yeah, I'm happy to break it down. So traditional FI, as I think most of us will know, is building a portfolio that's large enough that you no longer have to work. It's typically 25. times your average annual spending, you withdraw from it each year, you no longer have to have a job, and you are fully retired. Coast fire is a little bit different. It's building a portfolio that is large enough such that it's projected to grow to when you reach traditional retirement age to sustain you in retirement. So you essentially coast to retirement once you reach your coastfire number. For me, my goal is to invest $500,000 by age 30. That's projected to grow to over $5 million by

age 65 using a 7% growth rate, which would yield me a $200,000 per year inflation adjusted income. Okay. Do you think 7% is a realistic growth rate to plan on? I think that 7% is a historically derived number. It's something that we've seen in the past, but one of the risks that we'll get into today is that Coast Fire is projecting for 30, sometimes 40 years into the future. So that growth rate is extremely important. And that's part of of the reason that I've built some margin into my spending and I'm projecting to have this $200,000 per year retirement income. And if growth is a little bit less, then I would have less to spend each year. And what are you spending right now? Right now I spend about $3,000 per month. So it's $36,000 a year.

So you're giving yourself quite the raise in the future. Yes. Yeah, exactly right. I think that's really important to note because a lot of people, when they start on this FI journey, they have their FI number and they're like, okay, well, I'm spending $36,000 this year. Therefore, I need, let's give myself a little bit of wiggle room, $40,000 a year. That's a million dollars. That's all I need. And I am totally guilty of this. I am not talking smack about anybody listening. That was me and my example specifically because I was spending about $36,000 a year. And I'm like, oh, we'll just round it up a little bit. Great, we're golden. We hit our fine number of $1 million. And my husband was like, I don't know. So he worked for another year. And then another year. And then he went like part time.

And then he didn't retire until we had $2 million in net worth. And I was working. So I wasn't making as much as he was. He was a computer programmer making $130,000 a year, 10 years ago. And I think in hindsight, that million dollar goal was a little bit silly. So I'm certainly not spending $36,000 a year right now. And it has gone up considerably. So I think it's great that you are planning to give yourself a raise. That's a hefty raise. But also, how old are you again for our listeners who aren't familiar?

I'm 25 years old. So you are over the course of approximately 40 years, you're going to give yourself some room to grow. Now, 40 years ago, you could buy a house for like $13,000 or something like that. So I think this is really smart to be thinking ahead, hey, not only do I not want to spend $36,000 a year, I don't want to pigeonhole myself so that I can only spend $36,000 a year. I totally agree with you. And I think you perfectly described one of the first risks that we can discuss about Coastfire,

which is the fact that when you were pursuing traditional financial independence, you reach what you thought was your fire number. And you realized that it wasn't enough. And so you continued to build your portfolio until you reached an amount that you felt comfortable stepping back from working, right? But Coast Fire, imagine if that situation had happened with Coast Fire. At age 30, you had $250,000. Maybe you're banking on a million dollars. I'm making the numbers up on the fly here, but you get my point, that it's projected to grow to a million dollars to when you reach traditional retirement age. And then you get to traditional retirement age and you realize it's not enough. It's difficult in Coastfire to be able to go back or continue.

And now you're doing it without the decades of growth that really give Coastfire its muscle, its power. That's really the engine behind the portfolio development. So that's a huge risk of Coastfire compared to traditional FI. I'm wondering if people who are pursuing Coast FI, which was not invented yet when I was pursuing financial independence. It was just straight up fine. That's it. But I'm wondering if people who are pursuing CoastFi who are in the habit now of putting money away for retirement, when they hit their coast fine number, do you really think it's realistic that they will never save another dime ever?

I think it's a great question. And I can speak from my own experience that I don't imagine that I would go down to zero percent savings rate. It's just not ingrained in me. And I'm not sure what that next step will be, whether it'll be traditional fire, whether it will be another flavor like barista fire. But I think that it's not realistic to go down to zero. I don't think it is either. I mean, a lot of people who are working have the option of a company match. That's just foolish to not be contributing enough to get your company match, especially when you've already been in the habit of contributing to begin with. And then you reach this number and you're like, I'm just going to give up this money. Somebody wrote me a note, then they said, stop saying it's free money. It's not free money. It's

part of your salary. Okay, it is part of your salary that they are not actually paying you unless you take action too. So take that action and get that extra salary that you could actually say, no, thank you. I'm not going to take this. Why would you do that? Send it to me. I'll use it. Or me. We can split it. Yes, exactly. Send it to Evan because he's younger than me and he needs more growth. He's got more growth trajectory. It's going to do better for him. But yes, there's things like that. there's the Roth IRA, which I think is something if you have the ability to contribute to, you should absolutely contribute to it. So I think that there is a very slim chance that somebody on the path to Coast FI would just completely stop and never continue saving ever again.

I mean, I can see them stopping because they're going to go on a big trip or stopping for a short amount of time because, insert reason here. But I can't see people in this community just completely stopping and never contributing again. I totally agree. agree with you and I think that that is the new chapter that we have now, right? So 10 years ago, people were pursuing financial independence and they were expecting to earn zero dollars as they reach traditional FI. They get to traditional FI and they realize, well, wait a minute, my passions and my hobbies kind of align with earning some level of an income. So I actually don't go down to zero income. I think that you're totally right that the new wave of people that are pursuing

Coast Fire may reach that goal and find themselves in a position where they still have some level of a savings rate, but it provides more freedom and flexibility to them, that they can step down to a role, maybe with a different compensation structure, maybe with a smaller match. But I totally agree with you. I think you're right. You would be crazy to pass up on 100% return. When you're ready to start your business, Northwest Registered Agent helps you do more than just file paperwork.

You get all the tools to build a real business identity from day one, a business address, website, phone number, operating agreement, free guides and more at no extra cost. Northwest registered agent has been helping small business owners and entrepreneurs launch and grow businesses for nearly 30 years. They are the largest registered agent and LLC service in the U.S. with over 1,500 corporate guides. These are real people who know your local laws and can help you in your business every step of the way.

With Northwest, your business is set up to stand on its own from day one. That means your home address, personal email, and phone number, stay private. Don't pay hundreds or thousands of dollars for what you can get from Northwest for free. Visit Northwest Registeredagent.com slash money free and start using free resources to build something amazing. Get more with Northwest Registered Agent at Northwest Registeredagent.com slash money free. I think that the lifestyle creep is one of the biggest risks to KOSFI. I love that you are planning ahead for lifestyle creep. I can see someone being very diligent about saving, oh, I've hit my KOSFI number.

Now I don't need to be so strict with my budget or so focused on my numbers. So they let their lifestyle inflate. But their KOSFI number is like in the traditional file, like my story, their KOSFI number is based on smaller spending. So one of the biggest risks I can see to KOSFI is just the lifestyle creep that is inherent in the you don't really have to save for retirement anymore mindset that you could find yourself in. I totally agree. This year, I bought bargain tickets to go to a Phillies game. They were like $20 a ticket. My parents went to Antarctica last year, right? So if that's not a perfect comparison of lifestyle inflation, I don't know what is, right? Because I don't. I don't

don't think you can get $20 tickets to Antarctica. And so that's the thing about Coastfire is that you're reaching this milestone and potentially modifying your approach to financial independence. And there is a ton of time, especially for someone in my case, if my goal is to reach Coastfire by age 30, there's a long time between 30 and 65. A lot can happen. So considering that lifestyle inflation is a crucial element in Coastfire and a huge risk if someone is planning to have their spending stay flat. So Evan, another risk that I can see for Coast FI is somebody walking away from their W-2 job too soon. So I'm going to use you as an example. You are an engineer and you have hit your goal at 30 and you say, boy, being an engineer is really stressful. I'm going to stop doing this.

And then we hit a period of horrible inflation and bad market returns and and and and all of a sudden your money hasn't grown like you thought it was going to grow, but you also have so much time out of the engineering field that it might be hard to get back in. I mean, of course, you can go back to school and get your certifications or whatever. I should probably let you answer that question. But I can see people walking away a little too soon and then regretting it. Yeah, absolutely. I think there's a career risk with Coastfire that can really be a different type of element compared to traditional fi, especially because it's possible

that people can achieve coastfire far earlier than some people can achieve traditional fire. So maybe you would achieve traditional fire at age 50 or 55, whereas I plan on reaching coast fire by age 30, and so if things didn't go my

way, my portfolio moved in a way I wasn't expecting, or if we saw conditions outside of the historic norms with inflation like you mentioned or portfolio performance, then it could be a huge risk that if I stepped away from a W2 too soon, then you're 35 years old with only five years of work experience. That's a huge professional risk. And it could be difficult to turn that income spigot back on. Okay, Evan, let's go through that process for you. Let's say

you've started your engineering job. You leave after five years because you have reached KOSFI. and five years after that, your math isn't mathing anymore. And you're like, wow, I need to fix this. Are you planning on working past your Coast FI number? Like, you might still enjoy your job. I think if you enjoy your job and you like what you do, that's fine to continue on. I am reticent to suggest that somebody stay at a job that they absolutely hate just in case. Yeah, I totally agree. And I think that that's a great exercise to kind of think through what does that financial freedom, really mean for someone in my position. And something that I really like about Coastfire is that although you're projected to cover your entire retirement income situation, you still need to cover your day-to-day expenses. So for someone like me, that could mean that I step into a part-time role. Maybe I continue with my business of content creation. But for someone else, maybe they they still continue to work as an engineer, but maybe on a contract basis, maybe in a role that is not so demanding. And if in five to eight to ten years, like you said, they find that their math is not

mathing, they could potentially still be in a position where they've still continued to hone their skills. They still have a lot of work experience. Maybe it's not full-time work experience or quite as rigorous as they were pursuing Coastfire, but still plenty in order to be able to re-enter the job market to a role that they were at before. Yeah. And I think this is something that since I am forgetting this, I bet a lot of other people listening are also forgetting this. Coast Phi doesn't mean you stop working. Coast Phi means if you have a job that you hate, you stop working that job and get a different job, maybe in the same field. But you do need to generate income now to cover your expenses now. You've provided for your traditional retirement age is what Kosfei is.

for. Yeah, you shouldn't leave your job completely. You can leave the job that you hate, the job that got you looking banging on the computer at 9 o'clock at night. How do I leave my job early? Financial Independence. It's great. You should do it. So we've talked about the risks of Coast FI. Let's talk about the risks of traditional FI. What's one of the risks that you see for people pursuing traditional financial independence? In traditional FI, the primary risk, I think, is that you make an assumption of a safe withdrawal rate for a 30-year retirement, but in reality, you might have a 40, 50, 60-year retirement, depending on when you achieve traditional financial independence, whereas Coast Fire is building towards a 30-year retirement, which is far more traditional, and a lot of the research

around retirement is based around that. So the safe withdrawal rate is a primary risk, in my opinion, for traditional FI. And there is quite the lively debate in the FI community. about what is the true safe withdrawal rate? Because Bill Bangan's original research said 4%. I think it said 4.15. And then he has redone the research. His original research was in 1994 or 1996. I never remember which one.

And he did it more recently. And he said, actually, it could be more like 4.7. But again, that's the 30-year retirement range. And if you're having a 40, 50, 60-year retirement, did Mr. Money Mustache retire at like age 30 or something? he could very well have a 60-year retirement because he's super healthy. So that's a big difference. And when you run the numbers, it starts to look a lot different on the 40, 50-year retirement rather than the 30-year retirement. So I think that is absolutely one of the biggest risks of traditional

fie. Another risk is market returns. The historical return of all time averages about 10%, but there are chunks of time where that is absolutely not the case. In the 1970s, we had high inflation. And from 1973 to 1974, values dropped nearly 50% in the S&P 500. If you just retired in 1972 and then you're walking into this period of high inflation and bad market returns, that can be a real issue that lends right into the sequence of returns risk, which is the poor returns or negative returns right when you retire. So you're pulling money out of your retirement when it's at its lowest. You can combat this by having a higher cash position, several years of your spending in cash.

So you're not pulling from your retirement accounts when they've dipped. Along with these risks are inflation. Right now, we are in a higher than normal inflationary period. Just today, Kevin Warsh came out and said that they're really going to try and keep the inflation at 2%. The quote was, they have work to do if it starts getting out of control again. And a lot of this is due to the Iran War. And, you know, gas is very expensive, which causes everything else to be very expensive because everything is, you know, delivered by gas or diesel or whatever.

Jay Scott has a really fascinating take on this. He posts on Facebook quite frequently about the economic conditions that are coming into play right now. I think that's more of a risk to everybody than just traditional FI. But, you know, kind of a big risk for traditional FI because those are the people that aren't working. If you jump out of the job market today and then the market drops down, oh, I just took a six months sabbatical. I am looking for work again. But if you jump out of the market three years ago, what have you been doing for three years? That's a job market, not the stock market. I think that that's a great point. And I also think that, in my own personal opinion, it's easier to say I'm going to be in Coastfire. I've reached Coastfire and I'm

going to invest zero percent running the numbers and realizing that you have to continue saving and investing because you haven't reached the goal. The math is not mathing, as we said. The inflation is high. Market returns have gone some way that you weren't expecting. I would make the claim that I think that it's much easier to say, okay, I'm going to go back to investing 10, 15, 20, 25 percent. and I'm going to have to not do the things that I had in mind, versus someone who is in a traditional FI approach and is expecting that their life is going to change completely, or they already have stepped away from work,

and now they have to reenter the job market from zero. So I think that that's something that I really like about Coast Fire is that because you're giving yourself that time for the portfolio to grow as you approach that traditional retirement age, you can kind of fluctuate the needle and kind of move things as you need to in order to be really comfortable and prepared for that goal of retirement, whereas traditional FI really is kind of a step away moment. So how would somebody listening to this episode consider which one is right for them?

Do you think it has to do with your age or do you think it has to do with your income or just your mindset? Yeah, I think that that's a great question. And I think the truth is that it's difficult to know, right? if you're starting your financial independence journey, we could easily be talking about a 10, 15, 20, 25 year journey. So it's difficult to know. And I think that I always push young people towards Coastfire. It's what I'm pursuing myself. So I'll fully acknowledge that I'm probably biased. But I think that Coastfire as you pursue it, you are still on the path to pursue traditional FI if you reach that

Coast Fire milestone and you want to continue working towards it. Whereas once you reach FI, you've already made it, right? So you can't go back to Coast FI. I think some of the elements to consider is if you're in your job, in your career, you've been doing it for a while and you hate it. You can't stand it and you just want to step away, but you're highly compensated so you have the golden handcuffs. Maybe a traditional FI is something for you. And with that, you also think when I step away from work, I don't want to do a thing. I don't want to sell woodworking. I don't want to do any type of work. I just want to retire fully. Then traditional FI could be for you. But if you're someone who thinks that you're going to find a way to earn money or you actually enjoy work, then Coastfire

could be a great goal for you. I love that. How would you recommend somebody make Coast FI less risky? I think the way someone makes Coastfire less risky is simply to build in margin to their plan and acknowledge the reality that we do not know what is going to happen over the next 30 or 40 years. You don't know what's going to happen in the world around you. You also don't know what's going to happen in your own life, what your spending might be. So make sure that you build in plenty of margin. And I would make the claim, maybe this would be refuted by other people in the community, that you would rather have more than not enough, right? And so it's a balance there. But I think building and margin to your coast fire plan is absolutely crucial.

When I hear people talk about their numbers and they, oh, I like you spend $36,000 a year. If your goal was a million dollars, I would probably have a conversation with you because I don't think that's realistic based on your age. You're not married. You don't have children, but these are some things that you would like to have in your life in the future. Right. Yeah.

So being married is more expensive than being single. And having kids is more expensive. It's not that $300,000 till age 18 garbage that you see so much of. But it is more expensive. Three can eat as cheaply as too. No, they can't. Adding this in and adding in a nice, healthy buffer, you could get to age 40, 45, and say, hey, you know what?

I am married. I do have kids. And I'm spending about $100,000 a year. I had projected that I wanted to be spending $200,000, but really this $100,000 is good. I might be able to retire a lot sooner. Or I really love my job and I'm spending $200,000 a year and like my original goal is absolutely perfect. I think that people who are on this path are not going to suddenly reach KOSFI and be like,

I am never looking at my numbers again. That's just not inherent in the people that are pursuing financial independence to begin with. I'm skeptical of a lot of financial products, but life insurance isn't one of them, at least not term life. For the vast majority of you listening, term life is simply the right answer. And the smartest way to buy it isn't one big policy, it's a ladder. Your need for coverage isn't flat. It declines over time. You've got a 30-year mortgage, a couple of young kids, maybe a spouse mid-career.

In 15 years, the mortgage is going to be smaller and the kids are almost launched. So instead of buying one giant 30-year policy, you'll over time. pay for, you stack a few, say a 10 year, a 20 year, and a 30 year layer. So your total coverage steps down as your actual obligations step down. You only pay for what you actually need when you need it. Ethos is a platform that helps you find life insurance 100% online. You can get a quote in seconds and apply in minutes. There's no medical exam. You just answer a few health questions online. You can get up to $3 million in coverage. Some policies are as low as $30 a month. That makes building a ladder genuinely fast. Get your free quote at ethos.com slash BP money. That's E.

HOS.com slash BP money. Application times may vary and rates may vary. When's the last time you enjoyed checking your finances? Well, Monarch is trying to change that. Open it up and in a couple of minutes, you know exactly where you stand with your spending, your goals, your net worth, your investments, everything all in one place. And it goes wherever you go. Quick check in on your phone between meetings or check the bigger picture on your laptop on Sunday night. Everything sinks, everything refreshes whenever you want. Use the code pockets at monarch.com to get your first year of monarch core half off at just $50. That's 50% off your first year at monarch.com with the code pockets. Something that I just realized we could have covered in the risks, as you were saying that,

is account structure in Coastfire, is that a primary risk of Coast Fire is that if you are preparing for a traditional retirement, 59 and a half, if you do reach 50 and realize that you're you're done and you have enough. You overestimated it. It's not easy to withdraw. Wow. It's like you're looking right at me and telling me my exact situation. Yeah. Account structure is risky for both traditional and Coast FI because you don't want to have all of your money in your 401K, which is accessible, but then you have to do a 72T or Roth conversions. But here's the thing about Roth conversions. If I want to retire now, and I haven't really been paying attention to where I'm putting my money,

I'm just simply putting it in the 401k because I want to reduce my taxable income currently, I might find myself in a position where most of my money is in my traditional 401k. I'm 50 years old, and I want to access it. I can't. I would have to do a 72T to get access to that money now. If I wanted to do Roth conversions, that would be. a taxable event, but that's a taxable event that I have to come up with the money to pay the taxes on. I can't just take the money out of the Roth conversion to pay the taxes because that's

considered a withdrawal, which is a taxable event, adding to my problems. So I think in both respects, making sure your money is accessible at any age, as well as like traditional retirement accounts are great because you can access that money at 59.5. But if you decide to retire at 45, and the 72T is for five years or until you turn 59 and a half, whichever is longer. So I actually just did a 72T. My husband did. He's 52. So he's got a seven-year 72-T.

If I were to do it, I'm 53, so I would only have a six-year 72T. But if you did it at age 45, you would have a 17-year 72-T. Yeah, it's super important in both approaches to understand your account structure. Exactly. I absolutely agree. Okay, Evan, we've talked about the risks of traditional phi. We've talked about the risks of CoastFi. Which one do you think is riskier? I'll say, in my opinion, I think the traditional phi is riskier than CoastFi. I think Coast Fi adds a lot of flexibility and gives you a long runway to correct any changes that you need to make between your Coast Phi milestone and your traditional retirement age. Whereas in a traditional Phi sense, there's not as much time. And it's, be difficult to course correct if you've already reached what you thought was your phi number and you realize it's no longer your phi number. I'm going to have to agree with you, Evan. I do think that traditional phi is a riskier bet than Coast Fi unless you have just blown so far past your

phi number that it doesn't matter. But I love the concept of Coast Phi. Your number is so much lower because there's such a long timeline to let it grow that it just seems more doable to begin with. And then, like I said, you're not quitting employment once you reach Coast-Fi. You still have to provide for your spending until traditional retirement age. If you decide that, oh, you know what? I don't have enough or it hasn't been working out as well as I thought it was. You currently have a job. It's always easier to get a job when you have a job.

Absolutely. All right, Evan, this was a super fun conversation. I really appreciate your time today. Where can people find you besides the bigger. Pockets Money podcast. You can find me on all social media platforms, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, YouTube, at the underscore financial foundation. I love it. All right, Evan, hop on over to biggerpocketsmoney.com and read our blog, sign up for our newsletter, and check out all of our free resources. We have templates and calculators and worksheets all designed to help you on your journey to

financial independence. If that's Coast FI, Traditional FI, Barista FI, Fat FI. lean fi, all the fies. Any type of fie that you are pursuing, we are here to support you. And that wraps up this episode of the Bigger Pockets Money podcast. He is Evan Lawler. I am Indy Jensen saying we're out, Trout. If you've been putting off life insurance, I get it. The old process was miserable. Phone calls with an agent, a nurse coming to your house for a blood draw, then waiting weeks to find out what you'd pay for. That friction is exactly why so many people who should have coverage don't. Here's what I believe. Most BP money listeners need term life and the right move is to build a ladder. A few term policies of different lengths stacked together to your coverage steps down as your mortgage shrinks and your kids get closer to being financially independent or you get closer dating your financial independence number. The thing that makes that practical now is ethos, a platform that helps you find life insurance all 100% online. Same day coverage, no medical exam. You just answer a few health questions online. Up to $3 million in coverage, some policies as low as $30 a month. So building a two or

three-layer ladder that used to take a month of appointments is something you can knock out before your coffee gets cold. Get your free quote at ethos.com slash BP money. That is ethyos.com slash BP money. Application times may vary and rates may vary.