BiggerPockets Money Podcast - The Best Early Retirement Withdrawal Strategy (6 Proven Frameworks)
Episode Date: July 3, 2026Reaching financial independence is only half the battle, knowing how to withdraw your money in early retirement is just as important. The right withdrawal strategy can help you minimize taxes, avoid u...nnecessary penalties, and make your portfolio last longer. In this episode of the BiggerPockets Money podcast, Mindy Jensen and Scott Trench break down six early retirement withdrawal frameworks. Whether you're planning to retire before age 59.5 or you're already financially independent, you'll learn how to access your retirement savings, reduce your tax bill, and create a withdrawal plan that fits your goals. If you're pursuing FIRE (financial independence retire early), this episode will help you make smarter decisions with the money you've worked so hard to build. Resources from this episode: To access the slides from this episode: www.biggerpocketsmoney.com/withdraw To use the Healthcare Costs Projection App: https://biggerpocketsmoney.com/healthcarecosts/ To go beyond the podcast: Kick start your financial independence journey with our FREE financial resources - https://biggerpocketsmoney.com/ Subscribe on YouTube for even more content- www.youtube.com/biggerpocketsmoney Connect with us on social media to join the other BiggerPockets Money listeners - https://www.facebook.com/groups/BPMoney We believe financial independence is attainable for anyone no matter when or where you’re starting. Let’s get your financial house in order! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Your withdrawal strategy can save or cost you hundreds of thousands of dollars in taxes.
Having a plan when you want to access your hard-earned money is crucial.
So today, we're going to share the six frameworks for early retirement withdrawal.
Oh, and welcome to the Bigger Pockets Money podcast.
My name is Mindy Jensen, and with me as always is my not-withdrawn co-host, Scott Trench.
Thanks, Minnie.
That's a great frame for today's show.
We're excited to talk about this.
This is a big topic.
It's really complex.
things get really hard.
Accumulation is pretty simple.
Spend less than your earn.
You invest according to a tax-efficient order of operations.
You invest aggressively for long-term growth,
and you keep piling it up for 10, 15 years.
Withdrawal sequencing is harder.
It's more of an art than a science.
I don't think the word optimal can be really applied here.
I think you can only approach optimal
or within the context of a coherent worldview.
I think it's really hard,
and there's a lot of competing prioritizations
that we have to deal with, right?
We'll preview this very briefly.
but like Magi and Affordable Care Act subsidies conflict with converting Roth conversions, for example,
up to certain tax thresholds.
So we're going to talk about six frameworks that are all independently ideal,
and then how they conflict and how that can help you make better decisions.
If you're a Harry Potter fan, yes, I'm going there.
In the sixth book, you'll remember that Harry gets this like textbook, that's the Half Blood
Princess textbook and it gives them all the answers to the potions, right?
That's like the accumulation phase journey.
But then one day they have this class where you've got to brew your antidote to a poison
and you've got to actually understand the theory and go after it.
That's kind of like what withdrawal is like, right?
You can't just like follow a rule of thumb blindly.
You've got to understand the theory and be able to play ball.
And hopefully this episode will help you play ball.
So that's for you, a Harry Potter fan if you're lost.
Well, the episode's not going to get any better from there.
Yes, it is going to get better.
People are going to turn it off, Scott.
if you are in or approaching early retirement, or if you are thinking about early retirement,
this episode is for you.
It's not only how you are withdrawing, but you need to have funds in these different accounts
in order to be able to withdraw them.
Plus, I've got a fun little extra bonus tip halfway through the show.
By the way, we have a slide deck here.
It's just like 15 slides.
It's pretty easy.
What I think it will be valuable for, though, is if you're trying to play a
around with this and get some kind of like first rough draft to begin learning these concepts,
go download these slides at biggerpocketsmoney.com slash withdraw and then upload it to your favorite
AI. There's a prompt at the end there as well that will help get things going. And that will
frame the discussion about withdrawal in a way that is not as simplistic as if you just ask it,
hey, what's the right way to withdraw? It'll tell you taxable first, pre-taxed, and Roth. Which is right,
but it's missing these other frameworks. So go ahead and download this presentation, upload it to your
favorite AI. It's designed to be compatible with that and help sharpen your thinking there.
Yeah, you know how when you ask an attorney a question on the podcast, his answer is always,
well, it depends. The answer to everything in this show is it depends. It depends on what your
specific situation is and your specific goals. So this is a great framework, a series of six
great frameworks, and then you have to actually do the work to figure out which one works for you.
Awesome. Well, let's get into those six frameworks.
The first framework is going to be the withdrawal sequence.
Like this is the kind of traditional taxable first, free tax, then Roth, kind of thing.
Then there's health care subsidies, which we've talked about at length here on bigger pockets money.
We'll talk about how that interacts with the withdrawal sequencing.
We'll talk about tax optimization across a lifetime.
We'll talk about the target portfolio that you're holding.
We'll talk about asset location.
You're going to hold 60, 40 stocks, bonds.
You're going to want to hold the stocks in some accounts and the bonds and other accounts.
And then last, we're going to talk about a framework, which I call your worldview.
And this is where things get contestable, right?
So, for example, I have a worldview that for people like me who are, you know, fairly
entrepreneurial, will probably have many investments in business interests in a 30-year
financially independent adult lifetime, I think I'm going to become fairly wealthy over
time.
My tax bill is going to go up.
But somebody else may feel like, hey, I'm going to probably spend down my portfolio, and
I will live my entire life, my entire financially independent life, in a low tax bracket.
That worldview, how you view yourself and how you think that political environments will
change your tax situation, for example, change.
they impact how you're going to approach withdrawal sequencing.
So you can see how this gets very complicated very quickly.
And that's why I've provided six frameworks and how they stack or rank or interact with one
another as you think about planning withdrawal sequencing for your early retirement.
Okay, Scott, let's go to the withdrawal rules of thumb.
Great.
Mind, do you want to take this one?
Yeah.
So the typical withdrawal rules of thumb are the orders in which you are decumulating.
So number one is your after-tack.
cash flow, your interest, dividends, pension, Social Security, rental cash flow, these are kind of
the passive income that's already coming in. Spend that first. It's already coming in. Don't continue
to reinvest it because you're still getting taxed on that. You might as well use that to live
your life. Number two, after tax brokerage, sell to rebound to your target portfolio.
Number three is your pre-tax accounts, your traditional 401k and IRAs. You can either with
draw after age 59 and a half or Roth convert or use a 72T to access those funds before age 59
and a half. Number four, HSA receipts. Reimburse your banked medical bills if that is how you're
choosing to use your HSA plan. That is tax free in any year you choose. You just have to have receipts
and then you turn those in. You get the money. It's really awesome. And number five, last is the Roth
accounts that you have. These are last for your spending and there are some conditions that apply.
Now, Scott, this is all well and good for most of our listeners, but I want to caution people who
have huge gains in their after-tax portfolio to look at every bucket available before making any
moves. So Carl and I have a nice chunk of our net worth in our after-tax stock, but our cost
basis is practically nothing, which would make our tax obligations,
almost the entire amount that we would be selling.
This is not an issue until it is.
For a listener in a similar position, this could throw them off the subsidy
cliffs.
So this is what you're talking about with the interlocking, and we'll get to that a little
bit more.
So, you know, just to recap what you said here, you have your aftertask cash flow,
your aftertax brokerage, your pre-tax, your HSA, and your Roth.
But this is going to intersect.
Like, that's the perfect worldview.
You know, if taxes, you know, if tax brackets were flat and there was no complications
or whatever, we would want to follow something like this for a variety of reasons, right?
The Roth is the best thing.
Roth and the after tax, for example, are generally speaking better things to leave to your descendants
than pre-tax or HSA components.
There's an estate planning component to this.
In practice, we have also three sources of cash with our cash balance, our Roth contributions,
not the gains, but the contributions, and HSA reimbursements that can float liquidity for us,
and we may use those from time to time.
certain years if we want to control our income to maximize, for example, Magi subsidies in another
framework or keep below certain taxable cliffs. So this is like the starting hypothesis, the bias that
we ordered to when attempting to accumulate. But there are many things that break this bias as we'll
get into as they conflict with other frameworks. So the next framework is at least for now,
healthcare subsidies. We've talked about this at length. But if your modified adjusted gross income is
too high if it goes over 400% of the federal poverty line, then you get zero Affordable Care Act
health care subsidies. So most people know that there's a cliff and that you don't want to go over
that cliff. You don't want to have too much modified adjusted gross income, Magi, in a given year
so you exceed 400% of the federal poverty line and get no credits. But what you may not be
remembering or thinking through is that the lower your Magi, the higher those credits.
So, for example, someone like me in Colorado, if I were to just stay a hair under the cliff for my family, I might get a $7,600 credit this year in 2026 for Affordable Care Act subsidies.
But if I were to keep my Magi much lower in the $45,000 range, my credit could be as high as $18,000, right?
So I've got two decisions here.
One, I want to stay under that cliff.
And two, I may want to keep my Magi as low as possible to maximize those credits.
And depending on which tax brackets I'm in or how I'm thinking about my long-term portfolio construction,
maximizing credits this year may be more important than taking advantage of Roth conversions up to some tax bracket.
So you can see how we already, in Framework 2, right, we have our optimal withdrawal sequence in a perfect fictional world.
And now we've got Magi stacking in it, and they conflict.
And that's why this is impossible to get to, I think, perfection.
I think you can only understand the tradeoffs and begin to make better quality.
decisions about what makes sense in your situation for you. And by the way, this is going to vary by
state. If you're in a place like Vermont, this might be very, very meaningful for you to stay under
the Magi cliff. But if you're in a state like New Hampshire, and you already have reasonably
high Magi, then going right through the cliff and doing Roth conversions up to the 20 or 22%
tax bracket may only cost you like $3,000 in subsidies. So it's really important to understand this
in your situation, how that's going to impact you, because it will impact whether you decide to
optimize for these subsidies or you decide to optimize for some other tax goals.
When spring hits, some people suddenly just want to declutter the garage, clean out the closets,
and get everything all organized. Whether or not that hits you, Monarch will do your financial
spring cleaning for you. One dashboard gets your entire financial life organized. No more clutter,
no more mess, no more scattered logins, just accounts, investments, property, and more all in one
place. One of my favorite parts is the Sankey diagram. Every month I open it up and literally watch
the flow of money. It shows exactly where every dollar is going from income to all of my
spending categories. It makes it so much easier to spot what's working and what needs tweaking.
Get your first year of Monarch for half off just $50 with the promo code Pockets.
Use the code Pockets at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just 50 bucks.
That's 50% off your first year at Monarch.com with the code P-O-C-K-E-T-S.
I'm skeptical of a lot of financial products, but life insurance isn't one of them, at least not
term life. For the vast majority of you listening, term life is simply the right answer. And the
smartest way to buy it isn't one big policy, it's a ladder. Your need for coverage isn't flat. It
declines over time. You've got a 30-year mortgage, a couple of young kids, maybe a spouse,
mid-career. In 15 years, the mortgage is going to be smaller, and the kids are almost launched. So
instead of buying one giant 30-year policy you'll overpay for, you stack a few, say a 10-year,
a 20 year and a 30-year layer.
So your total coverage steps down as your actual obligations step down.
You only pay for what you actually need when you need it.
Ethos is a platform that helps you find life insurance 100% online.
You can get a quote in seconds and apply in minutes.
There's no medical exam.
You just answer a few health questions online.
You can get up to $3 million in coverage.
Some policies are as low as $30 a month.
That makes building a ladder genuinely fast.
Get your free quote at ethos.com slash BP money.
That's E-T-H-H-O-S dot com slash
BP money. Application times may vary and rates may vary.
You just realized your business needed to hire someone yesterday. How can you find amazing candidates fast?
Easy. Just use Indeed. When it comes to hiring, Indeed is all you need. That means you can stop
struggling to get your job notice on other job sites. Indeed's sponsored jobs helps you stand out
and hire the right people quickly. Your job post jumps straight to the top of the page where your
ideal candidates are looking. And it works. Sponsored jobs on Indeed get 45% more applications than
non-sponsored posts.
The best part? No monthly subscriptions or long-term contracts.
You only pay for results.
And speaking of results, in the minute I've been talking to you,
23 people just got hired through Indeed worldwide.
There's no need to wait any longer.
Speed up your hiring right now with Indeed.
And listeners of this show will get a $75-sponsored job credit
to get your jobs more visibility at Indeed.com slash bigger pockets.
Just go to Indeed.com slash bigger pockets right now
and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast.
Indeed.com slash bigger pockets. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring, Indeed is all you need.
Scott, you just said something that I really liked. You said if you're going to do this in a given year,
I think a lot of people kind of get stuck on, well, this is my plan and that's it. I have to do this
every single year. There's a lot of different ways to do a lot of different things. One thing that comes
to mind is when you're contributing to a donor advised fund, if you know that you want to give every
single year, maybe this year you fund two years or five years of giving. Even though you're not
giving it to the charity at that moment, you fund the donor advised fund and that gives you a huge
tax reduction. So maybe you've decided that you want to do a Roth conversion and you want to
make a big Roth conversion. Well, then you can also do a big contribution to your donor advice
fund and kind of balance that out. This is where having a conversation with a tax professional or a
CFP can be really beneficial because you're not just playing for today and this year's decision
doesn't have to be the decision for the rest of your life. I'll go a step further. I think that there's a
room for a CFP or a tax professional in this and that at the end of the day you've just got to
understand how to play ball here. Let's use your example. We actually have three case studies here that I'll
go through later on in the deck. But for example, if you know you're going to go over the magic
eye cliff anyways. And you have a big pre-tax balance. Maybe you just Roth convert up to the 20 or
22% tax bracket that year because you've already lost your subsidies and you might as well take
advantage of the fact that you're not going to get me. So you're going to go big and convert. Maybe
you work half the year. And so those subsidies aren't even a big deal and you're firing then.
And then that's another component of this. The giving is another component of that. Maybe you do that
in a high tax year or maybe you do that to maximize your subsidy in a year if you're afraid they're
going to go away in a few years. Like that's why you have to understand and stay abreast of all these
understand the conflicting frameworks. And we're only on framework two here, right? We have our
theoretical, you know, in isolation, idealized withdrawal order of operations. And now we've got
the health care subsidies. Framework three, by the way, if you want to play around with those
healthcare subsidies, go to biggerpocketsmoney.com slash healthcare costs. I built a calculator.
I'm not shy about telling everybody in the world that I built this calculator. I'm very proud
of it. It was a lot of work. Go check it out. And it will help you kind of understand these
a little dial that estimates the subsidies in your state this year. And there's a projection for
the next 30 years there.
as well. Yeah, Scott built an awesome calculator. He's going to be too modest to say how fabulous this
calculator is. There's all sorts of things you can play with. And this is the biggest question that
people have about early retirement. How am I going to get health care? There's a lot of moving parts
to health care. So understand what your costs are going to be, not only now in your 30s and 40s,
but when you're my age, in your 50s and 60s, your health care costs go up. Okay. So,
So that brings us to the third framework, which is use the standard deduction and the 0% long-term capital gains tax brackets.
So if you're married filing jointly, you get a 32,200 standard deduction in 2026.
That's a big deal.
That's a lot of income.
Like, effectively, all the interest income from your emergency reserve or high-yield savings account, if you have REITs or rental income, like, those can all go in there.
And you can have a 0% tax bracket up to a pretty reasonable amount of income there.
And then there's the 0% long-term capital gains tax bracket, which stacks on top of ordinary.
income. So let's say you realize 32,200 in ordinary income, and then you have another $98,900
in long-term capital gains. You've paid zero federal tax. Now, some states may charge you tax,
so you can play around with that kind of stuff, but that's a really valuable gift from the tax
code to early retirees, and we want to take advantage of that. But we should know that those
income sources count towards Magi. So they're going to impact your subsidy. So it may be in your
state that you don't want to in some years take advantage of the $98,900,000, 0% long-term
capital gains tax bracket for a married by a joint and a couple, because that may actually
reduce your subsidy by more than whatever those benefits are. And again, that's why this is
so hard, right? We're only on the third framework here, which is we want to use the 0% long-term
capital gains tax bracket. We want to use the standard deduction, but we also want to keep in mind
the tradeoffs that come with that in terms of our subsidies for health care. And we want to also think
about how that intersects with the ideal order of operations for withdrawal sequencing.
Scott, at the bottom of this slide, there is a link to an article that I wrote about the 0% capital
gains tax bracket and how you can take advantage of it in a couple of different ways.
The tax gain harvesting can also be part of this 0% capital gains.
And the tax gain harvesting is actually something I want to talk about with our listeners
who are not yet financially independent.
Capital gains harvesting is selling investments that have appreciated in value while staying under your
income brackets 0% or into the 15% if you have a lot of these gains that you want to realize
to lock in the gains tax free.
And then you are opting to re-buy, if you choose, the same or similar assets to reset your
cost basis higher.
This is something that I wish that Carl and I would have done over the years.
our cost basis on Tesla is incredibly low.
So when we go to sell, the amount that we're selling is almost entirely taxable.
If we would have reset our cost basis, and trust me, we had some years that we had some room
in that 0% long-term capital gains bracket.
If we would have reset it, our cost basis wouldn't be so low anymore.
We still get to own the stock.
There's no wash sale rule with the capital gains harvesting.
This is a really interesting strategy that I want to encourage our,
listeners to go and check out. There's an article in there call at biggerpocketsmoney.com
slash capital dash gains dash harvesting. And we'll include a link to that in the show notes as
well. Love it. We're through three frameworks now, right, our withdrawal sequence that we want
to do in a perfect fictional world, which is, you know, the taxable, pre-tax, and then the Roth,
right, with some other components in there like cash income streams and the HSA as a bridge or
liquidity source when we need it. We've got the health care subsidies and we've got our zero
percent long-term capital gains tax bracket and the standard deduction using those up and how they
intersect and conflict already. Now we've got to layer in our target portfolio, right? And the target
portfolio, we've had many brilliant people with conflicting opinions on the Bigger Pockets
Money podcast to talk about what portfolio you ought to have in early retirement. And we don't
give specific portfolio advice here, but we've had certainly had very strong opinions represented
on the show. And I think four of those buckets that have emerged here are the all equity
portfolio. Just keep it all in the S&P 500 and accept the larger volatility.
the stock bond, you know, 8020, 60, 40, 90, 10, whatever it is that you're comfortable with,
the risk parity or golden ratio portfolio where we've got multiple uncorrelated asset classes in differing amounts
and constantly rebalanced towards that target portfolio by selling off the relative winners, the positions that are highest.
And then we've got, we had Paul Merriman come on and talk about tilts like factor investing, small cap value,
international small cap value, those kinds of things.
So you've got to pick one of these.
And I will say that as time goes,
goes on for early retirees. I am personally more and more leaning towards the higher equity concentrations.
I have briefly drifted off that a few years ago. But as I've learned from these experts,
I'm like, hey, it is a really long time horizon. There's going to be volatility. And I think that
those all equity portfolios, including these factor tilts, have a certain appeal to me personally
that make them more interesting here, especially if you're worried about, you know, risk in the S&P 500 or
whatever. There's a really good and compelling evidence from the factor tilts that Paul Merriman and
Ben Felix have shared on the show here that have really swayed me and made me feel more comfortable
with higher equity concentrations there. So that's one man's view, but there's a lot of conflicting
opinions on this. And depending on whether you want to draw down or spend more than, you know,
a three and a half or four percent withdrawal of sequence, there are other portfolios that have good
arguments for them. So you've got to pick a portfolio as the fourth framework. We won't spend
too much time on this because we talked about that on other shows. But what that now has to
intersect with is where that portfolio goes. So the fifth framework is asset location for that
portfolio. And now we've got to say where we want, like let's say we have our risk parity or
stock bond portfolio. Let's use a stock bond portfolio for the simplicity here. I'm targeting a 60-40
stock bond portfolio. I'm going to keep my most aggressive positions as a rule of them in the
Roth and my HSA. I'm going to keep the most conservative positions in the traditional or pre-tax
IRA. And I'm going to use my taxable brokerage account to balance that distribution, right? So let's say I
have 30, 40, 30, 30% of my wealth is in pre-tax.
40% is in after tax, another 30% is in my Roth. Well, I'm going to put the 30% in my pre-tax account
into the bonds. I'm going to put the 30% of my Roth into the stocks. I'm going to use the
after-tax brokerage position to bridge that gap. And so that's kind of the rule of thumb there.
In reality, very few people have this balance in these ways. There's always a really big third
or a different position here or that old stock investment that was one-off from back when you used to
pick stocks before you switched over to index funds.
that's now a huge position and you've got taxable consequences for realizing that gain and moving
towards your target portfolio. So that conflicts with this framework, and that's probably arguably
a seventh or eighth framework that you have to think about here. But these assets and these right
accounts and then rebalancing as we withdraw or decumulate towards that target portfolio, that's
the next piece that needs to come up here. And again, that also intersects with Magi,
with the right decumulation sequence, with the way that we think about harvesting the
0% long-term capital gains tax bracket and the standard deduction.
So it gets very complex here, but that's the fifth framework, is the right assets and the right accounts.
I think this is really good, Scott.
I think that this is a lot more complicated than even we have alluded to in the past because there's so many moving pieces.
And when this turns a little bit, then this one turns to and then this one turns.
And you're like, oh, wait, I didn't mean to turn this one so much.
So understanding what is going to affect all of the different things that you want or don't want them to affect is going to be key to having as optimal as possible, which is not possible, but as optimal as possible, a withdrawal strategy.
My goal in retirement is to reduce the taxes that I'm paying.
When?
When?
That's the question, right?
I want to reduce taxes too.
Do I want to reduce them now or do I want to reduce them in the future?
And that may be a big decision.
And that's where we come back to a worldview because here's what a linear thing would look like in a nice smooth continuum.
The real world is going to have a Monte Carlo, right, where things are going to go up in some years and down in other years.
And the tax code is going to change.
Maybe it gets even lower.
Maybe it goes up.
Maybe it goes way up.
And so we all want to pay lower taxes.
How do we do it?
I don't know.
Don't look at me.
I don't have the answers.
I am still searching for them.
But I think that's really important, Scott, is to your worldview.
I do want to pay all of my fair share.
I am not a taxationist theft person.
I think that taxation funds the roads and the schools and the police department and the fire department and all the things that you need in a society.
But also the government sometimes tends to waste my tax money.
So I want to keep as much of it as I can.
That has always been my goal, which has caused me to be a little short-sighted.
So now I am looking with my worldview and seeing all the things.
Here's maybe some breaking news, Scott.
I am going to die.
I hope it's not for a really, really long time, but eventually I will cease to live.
And I want to leave my children the money that I have.
And I want to do it in a very optimal way tax-wise.
So now all of my money, I love your middle point here.
Don't overfund your pre-tax.
Thanks a lot.
I could have used that information about 25 years ago.
Scott, where were you?
Fifth grade?
Yeah.
Well, and look, I get that that's controversial.
I don't think it's that big of an issue.
I don't think it's that controversial.
I think it's going to be a real problem for many of the bigger pockets money listeners in particular.
I think, you know, again, if you're in the lean-fi or traditional phi camp, you know, and have very, very modest spending or wealth targets to achieve financial independence, that's great.
You may not have this problem.
I think that there's a fair argument that this is not something to worry about nearly as much.
But if you're in that chubby or fat-fired range and you have a huge balance in your 401k, you have this problem.
And now that's going to be a, for me, I think, one of the top tax planning items for the next, you know, a few decades is how do I get that money out?
And when do I pay the taxes and how do I manage that effectively?
So that's going to be the problem here.
And that brings us to the last framework here, which is have a worldview, right?
I shared this earlier.
I think my worldview is that for me, I will be in a high tax bracket for most of my adult life.
And there's a good chance, I believe, that tax brackets go up for folks like me that
are higher earners and have wealth that is compounding and that that will be taxed.
And so if all else is equal, then I'm willing to pay a little bit more tax right now to reset my basis,
to convert, you know, pre-tax positions to Roth, those kinds of things.
And I understand the gamble I'm taking with that.
And that may not work out.
It's an unknowable.
It's a political bet.
But it's a worldview I have that then informs the rest of the strategy.
You need to write that down, I think, about what you believe, right?
Maybe you believe, listening to this, maybe somebody else believes that, hey, I'm going to have a $1.5 million position, and I'm going to draw it down.
And I'm not going to ever really get into these higher income tax brackets.
And I don't think that they're ever going to go up for me, for people like me, you know, materially.
So I'm going to keep my taxes low now, and I think that they'll be low for the rest of my life.
That's a very coherent and valid worldview.
Just make sure that you understand that that's what you're betting on here because I'll think of a lot of advice in the space fixates on that low, on a modest phi number and presumes that if you have larger balances, that's a good problem.
Who cares?
I don't care.
I think that's a big deal for some people, and I think you've got to understand that.
The second worldview you got to have, I think, is around kids.
How much do you want to leave and win?
Mindy, probably a good idea for you to get a state plan if you're trying to leave money to your kids.
If you listen to the show, you know that I recently did finally get an estate plan.
Oh, good. Okay. Okay. Now that my oldest is an actual legal adult.
Well, great. So, yeah, so you got to have that. And then you got to say, okay, how do I want to leave it? And any money you leave in the 401k needs to be distributed and there's maybe ordinary income. And that may be left to your kids in their high income years, which is very tax inefficient.
That's one of the reasons why we want to get that money out of the 401k if we can in lower income tax brackets here.
I think the third world view we got to have is this concept of drawdown nerve.
So I got another framework here.
What do I want from a drawdown perspective here?
And I'm still building this.
I'm not yet confident enough to fully publish my Monte Carlo simulation here.
But what I found is when I think about running a portfolio and assessing risk, I want to
zoom in on those tails, like the worst case scenarios here.
And so if I have a two and a half million dollar portfolio, I want to look at the absolute
worst tail out of a, you know, several thousand simulation history. I want to look at the bottom
second percentile, the bottom fifth, the bottom 10th. I don't care about the best one, right? I know
that there's a potential I win huge in my portfolio and it goes up, but I want to look at that.
And what a golden ratio, a risk parity portfolio, for example, does that's designed to be
decumulated at a high rate is it pushes out. It makes these worst case tails. It pushes them out.
And it really does a good job of protecting you over a 30 or 40 year retirement. It's very, you know,
you have very few failures in there. But over a 60-year retirement, for example, if you go to a stock
portfolio, you get way, way, way, way, way better outcomes over that period of time in almost
all situations that that explode your wealth, you know, if you're using historical, you know,
average return data here compared to that golden ratio. So it's not really a decumulation portfolio,
but if you do that and you adjust your spending down, all of a sudden you have enormous
outcomes and you have to start zooming in further and further on the tail.
to even begin to comprehend what's going on in these worst situations.
So I think that there's a real, like a worldview for the fire community of,
are you actually going to be comfortable drawing down your portfolio at age 40
through to age 65 and ending with less wealth than you started with, right?
The 4% rule, in many cases you end up with more wealth,
but in many cases you don't, you just don't run out of money.
And that's success with the 4% rule.
And I think that's going to be very mentally challenging for a lot of people in the community.
And a portfolio that's a little more conservative that pushes you, you know, with your withdraw a little bit less, can not only, you know, never run out of money, but also begins to compound your wealth over time and increase your options throughout your fire journey.
And I think that that's going to be heresy in the fire community, but also something that a lot of people are going to be drawn to if they're honest with themselves around it.
And so I think that's something to consider about yourself.
What is your worldview on tax rates, your kids, and whether you really want to actually draw down your portfolio,
or if you want to go to that extra hair conservatively so your portfolio compounds forever,
and your spending can increase across your FI journey there.
And I think that plenty of people that are kind of in this cusp of FI are fine working an extra couple of years
or doing a little bit of side business or whatever to get that option.
That's a very powerful component here.
You've got to be honest with yourself about that.
When the change in season hits, some people suddenly just want to declutter the garage,
clean out the closets and get everything all organized, and that's great. If that's you or if it's not
you, either way, let Monarch do the financial spring cleaning this year for you. One dashboard
gets your entire financial life organized. No more clutter, no more mess, no more scattered
logins, just accounts, investments, property, and more all in one place. Another feature I love about
Monarch is the weekly AI recap. It catches spending spikes before they become problems and
flags big net worth shifts or upcoming expenses. It's like having a quick personal check. It's like having a quick
personal check-in every week, so nothing sneaks up on me. Get your first year of Monarch for half-off,
just 50 bucks, with the promo code Pockets. Use the code Pockets at Monarch.com to get your first year
half off at just $50. That's 50% off your first year at Monarch.com with the code Pockets,
P-O-C-K-E-T-S. If you've been putting off life insurance, I get it. The old process was miserable.
Phone calls with an agent, a nurse coming to your house for a blood draw, then waiting weeks
to find out what you'd pay for. That friction is exactly why so many people who
who should have coverage don't. Here's what I believe. Most BP money listeners need term life,
and the right move is to build a ladder. A few term policies of different lengths stacked together
to your coverage steps down as your mortgage shrinks and your kids get closer to being
financially independent or you get closer dating your financial independence number. The thing that
makes that practical now is ethos, a platform that helps you find life insurance all 100% online.
Same day coverage, no medical exam. You just answer a few health questions online. Up to $3 million
coverage, some policies as low as $30 a month. So building a two or three layer ladder that used to
take a month of appointments is something you can knock out before your coffee gets cold.
Get your free quote at ethos.com slash BP money. That is E-T-H-O-S dot com slash BP money.
Application times may vary and rates may vary.
You just realized your business needed to hire someone yesterday. How can you find amazing
candidates fast? Easy. Just use Indeed. When it comes to hiring, Indeed is all you need.
That means you can stop struggling to get your job notice on other job sites.
Indeed's sponsored jobs helps you stand out and hire the right people quickly.
Your job post jumps straight to the top of the page where your ideal candidates are looking.
And it works.
Sponsored jobs on Indeed get 45% more applications than non-sponsored posts.
The best part?
No monthly subscriptions or long-term contracts.
You only pay for results.
And speaking of results, in the minute I've been talking to you,
23 people just got hired through Indeed worldwide.
There's no need to wait any longer.
speed up your hiring right now with Indeed.
And listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility
at Indeed.com slash bigger pockets.
Just go to Indeed.com slash bigger pockets right now and support our show by saying you heard
about Indeed on this podcast.
Indeed.com slash bigger pockets.
Terms and conditions apply.
Hiring, Indeed is all you need.
Scott, last week in our newsletter, I sent out a couple of articles.
one of them was called, what would it take to make you feel secure? And this was one of the most clicked
on articles last week in the newsletter. Basically, I'm asking people, you know, why is it that you don't
feel secure? I have conversations with people coming through Longmont. I see them at Camp Fi and
economy and all these different FI events. And I get a lot of the same conversation. I think I'm
five, but I'm probably just going to work one more year. And you look at their numbers and you're like,
you could have a 1% withdrawal rate and you would still be okay.
You know, 1% is more than you need and you're still not ready to retire.
I want people to start thinking about what is it that is holding you back from your
retirement?
Because I think there's going to be a lot of people who are in the FI community who never retire
because there's nothing that's going to make them feel secure.
That's not a money problem.
That's not a math problem.
That's a psychological problem.
I'm going to send you to The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel.
That's an amazing book.
I'm going to send you to my article at biggerpocketsmoney.com slash security.
What would it take to make you feel secure?
I want to know why people don't feel secure to leave because I have a lot of friends who are
retired and it's all working great for them.
Yes, we've had a really great run in the stock market.
But most of my friends who have retired have backup plans and backup plans and
lots of ways to fund their lifestyle should something change.
I also think that the community is too hard on people who are working one more year in many ways.
Like this is like a bad thing.
Some people like their job and want to pat it and understand that, hey, I can, if I work
another year, I can be in all stocks for the rest of my life and pound forever and still
support my lifestyle for that.
And I'm fine with that.
That's not like, I'm not like sacrificing my retirement to get there.
I actually don't mind doing that.
That sounds great.
And I'm happy with where I'm at my life.
Like, that's fine.
That's different than I'm scared to retire when the numbers say I should or I hate the situation.
I'm grinding it out to amass millions I'll never spend.
Those are different.
And I think it's too simplistic to say that's unhealthy to work that extra year.
I don't think it is.
I think that that's a preference.
And many people seem to really be happy with that preference.
I think these things are starting to get challenged.
So anyways, have a worldview.
And then note that we've got the six frameworks, right?
We've got the withdrawal sequence.
We've got the Magi Cliff, the health care subsidies.
we've got using the 0% long-term capital gains tax bracket and the standard deduction.
We've got our portfolio that we want to target.
We've got our asset location as the fifth framework.
And we've got our sixth framework of our worldview.
And they weight one another, right?
Which one's most important?
I don't know.
It depends on your situation.
If you're right on the cusp of that cliff, maybe Magi becomes the most important consideration
and begins to trump the other items in your stack here.
Maybe if you have a huge 401K balance and you're going to be,
be over the magic cliff anyways, it's getting that balance out of the 401k and into your raw.
It's just going to be so context dependent. And that's why it's going to be so challenging.
So I thought I'd illustrate this with three case studies here with three fictional people who I call
Barb, Kevin, and Eileen. Barb has got her pre-tax bomb that's going to become an RMD problem.
It's going to become an RMD problem. She really does have an RMD problem here in this situation,
as if, you know, 45-year-old early retiree with 2.5 million, mostly in her 401k.
Kevin, you know, got a $2 million net worth and has half real estate and then half stocks and bonds
in his portfolio.
And he's going to handle things differently than Barb, as I'll get into.
And then I've got Eileen.
Eileen is actually inspired by a local political candidate.
Eileen Lawbacker, who's the challenger to Lauren Bobbert, who actually represents our district
right now.
So Eileen is a retired military, and she's got a $1.5 million dollar traditional stock bond
portfolio spread across pre-tax, post-tax, and Roth, or their equivalence from the military,
she's got a $50,000 pension, and she's got a $20,000 to $60,000 side hustle going on.
And that variable income and that ordinary income from the pension, they also impact how we're
going to think about dehumulation, right, and how these frameworks intersect.
So sound good, Minnie?
Should we go through these frameworks here?
Yeah, Scott.
Let's start with Barb.
This one is near and dear my heart because I have a pre-tax balance that is going to become
an RMD problem.
So Barb's got, you know, let's call it $2 million over $2.5 million is in the 401k.
We've actually talked to several people that have very similar setups here on the Bigger Pockets Money
podcast in the past. So I've had a couple of thoughts here. So first is let's assume in this,
you know, first year, you know, Barb is about on the cusp of financial independence.
She's working. It's, you know, mid, it's July right now. She's already got health insurance
for the first six months of this year. Maybe for 2026, you know, we've got to $100,000 in
income so far. Maybe this year, we decide, you know,
we're going to go over the Magi Cliff and we're going to do a big Roth conversion up to that 20% or federal tax bracket,
rather 22% federal tax bracket.
And I'm going to do that in the year when I'm not going to have the Magi Cliff anyways,
or I'm very likely to go over that anyways.
Maybe that's a consideration that Barb brings to her CFP or tax planner because she can make a big dent in that balance in the first year
and then spend the rest of the years catching up to some degree with conversions downstream.
Maybe in the second year, if the balance is really big, she does it again.
and we forego those subsidies and go big on that rollover because those healthcare subsidies will be
more and more impactful with each year as she ages as the premiums increase. And then from there,
we optimize for the Maggii subsidies going forward and we've got a more balanced position. Right. So you can
see that that's one way to apply this framework. Maybe that's not appropriate for Barb in the situation.
Maybe there are drawbacks. But those are the types of questions that I'd be thinking about in the
barb situation in particular with that pretty hefty pre-tax balance because that is my
number one goal is to get that money out of there, and I'm willing to maybe relax on the
optimization across some of the other frameworks in order to get it out. Okay. Let's look at Kevin's
situation. All right. So Kevin's got a completely different situation, right? Kevin's got two million
bucks, and that's half in real estate, half in stocks and bonds. Now, the depreciation on his rental
portfolio is offsetting the cash flow that his portfolio is generating. So Kevin could conceivably
have very little, if any, taxable income from his rental.
property portfolio in the first few years. And so Kevin has a good chance of avoiding this
Magi problem because his taxable income will be so low. That may give him a lot of Affordable Care
Act room and he may be able to go a little bit more aggressively in filling up those tax brackets.
So Kevin, as a real estate investor, there's certainly drawbacks to real estate on the journey
where, you know, that he may not have gotten the cashfully wanted or whatever. But at this point,
at the end, there could be some really big advantages because that wealth is actually translating
to spendable liquidity for him in a way that it might not be for Barb. And so he can maybe
optimize a little bit more for taking advantage of that long-term capital gains tax bracket,
zero percent tax bracket, and his full standard deduction here with Roth conversions, for example.
So that might be a game that Kevin is looking at in his first few years of early retirement,
in contrast to Barb.
Okay. And what about Eileen?
So Eileen, I think, is interesting because Eileen's going to have variable income.
I framed it as, hey, one year she might make 20K from her side hustle.
And another year, she might make $60,000 if she gets elected and defeats Bobberg.
right so now we've got a difference in how we're going to think about our tax optimization here right so the first thing i'd be
thinking about from iileen is because she has self-employment income from her side hustle as a circularity tier
but she should be maxing out her hSA because that offsets magi and she should be tracking all of her health
insurance premiums because she can deduct those against self-employment income that's circular so she wants
to stay far away from magi cliff if she can in most years but that's a really important benefit for her and that
is going to be directly offsetting her magi in her situation because she's self-employed.
By the way, a big vote in favor of some kind of self-employment, some years in early retirement.
There's a whole bunch of reasons for why that's powerful.
And also it's poohed by a lot of people, a certain portion of the fire community.
But in Lylein's case, is very powerful.
Now, in a strong year, let's say she has a big year, makes like a hundred grand from her side hustle.
It goes really well.
And she's going over the Magi Cliff.
Well, okay, she's not going to get subsidies this year.
But maybe this is the year where we, again, because we've missed that magic
Cliff, maybe this is the year where we do a fairly large Roth conversion of some kind and begin
moving that money out of the 401k and enter her Roth. So you can see why, you know, in each of
these situations, we get to a different conclusion about how we want to optimize our positions here,
right? We want to think about the intersection of these six frameworks and make a choice that's
right for us in each given year, knowing that their optimal approach is going to be dependent on a large
number of unknowable factors. So this is kind of why it gets so complicated here. It is complicated,
but it's a lot less complicated once you start seeing how everything interconnects. Because this is
complex, I think that one of the ways to get you started on this journey is you just take this deck.
We've been presenting a deck here for those who are listening on the podcast. There's not really
that many visuals that you missed. So you can watch this on YouTube. It's always great, but this is
fine if you listen to it on the audio. But take this deck at biggerpocketsmoney.com slash withdraw,
download it and upload it to an AI. And then think about talking about some of the high level number.
You don't want to give them accounts or anything like none of your personal data. But you can begin
playing around with these frameworks with the AI grounded in this structure, these six tradeoffs,
right? If you don't ground it in the structure, it may give you something very generic.
That's very dangerous. Then you can take that and you can learn a little bit and understand these
tradeoffs and have an opinion when you go to your, you know, tax preparer or your financial
planner to begin thinking about these things.
So that's the approach. I hope that that's helpful. I think this is going to iterate a lot in the coming years. And you can see why if you talk to the tax guy, you're going to get a tax opinion. If you talk to the portfolio guy, you're going to get a portfolio opinion. If you talk to the estate guy, you're going to get an estate plan opinion here. And you really got to address all the frameworks and ideally not bias any of them going into the conversation, except for what you think is most important in your situation. Again, this is not like a potion you can brew it by following a recipe. You've got to understand.
the interlocking frameworks, like the conceptual goals that we have here, and the tradeoffs.
There's no right answer if you want to do this the right way for you.
Yeah, Scott, I really appreciate you writing this all down and taking the time to create these
slides. I think this is really, really helpful. What's that URL again to find these slides?
BiggerPocketsmoney.com slash withdraw. Okay, that is great. There's also on BiggerPockets
Money, we have a ton of resources for you. Scott has been busily coding and working with
our tech team to create a whole bunch of things. You can keep up to date with these if you subscribe
to our newsletter, which you can do on our website, biggerpocketsmoney.com. We also have calculators,
like I said, templates for you to really help you on your path to financial independence.
And, hey, Scott, what's the latest thing that you guys created? It's a forum, a place where you can
come and ask questions of Scott and I chat with your other fellow Bigger Pockets Money listeners,
on our forum. You do have to create an account, but you can find that all at biggerpocketsmoney.com.
Yeah. And the goal for this forum, by the way, is to allow people to ask questions anonymously,
but for all replies to be from real people with their real names. I think that that will foster
a healthy discussion where we can talk about numbers transparently, but also, you know,
get real people responding to them versus anonymous handles that you don't know who they are.
So I think that hopefully that's helpful. We'll see if that experiment goes anywhere, but I'm
about that for the biggerpocketsmoney.com forums. Yeah, I am super excited. And so we hope to see you
there. All right, Scott, should we get out of here? Let's do it. That wraps up this episode of the
Bigger Pockets Money podcast. He is Scott Trench. I am Mindy Jensen saying, see you soon, Loon.
There's a reason most big wealth management firms don't like talking about flat fee planning.
It's because it puts the power and the profit back in your pocket. I've been working with
David Jackson at Domain Money because I wanted a fiduciary who did.
didn't care about selling me products or making asset under management fees that grew as my
portfolio grew. I wanted a partner who would look at my whole financial picture with all of its
complexity and give me a personalized step-by-step roadmap to reach my goals faster.
If you want a plan that's built for your benefit, not your advisors, you need to check out
bigger pockets money.com slash CFP. This is a promotion for domain money, a registered investment
advisor with the SEC. Bigger pockets money may receive compensation if you choose to work with domain
money as a client. I, Scott Trench, am a current client of domain money and received non-cash
compensation related to this promotional activity. This is not personalized investment advice.
For the full disclosures, visit biggerpocketsmoney.com slash CFP.
If you win a $3,000 a month payday for life, what would you feel free to do?
Maybe take a long weekend, every weekend, or try a bunch of new hobbies.
Would you feel free to upgrade and listen ad free? Don't worry, we get it.
Every $20 ticket could win you $3,000 a month for life and supports life-saving cancer.
or research at the Princess Margaret. Feel free to buy your Payday for Life ticket today.
Raffle number 155-2194. Please play responsibly.
