BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast - 971: BiggerNews: Mid-Year Housing Market Update + Mortgage Rate Forecast w/Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather

Episode Date: June 14, 2024

We’re almost halfway through 2024, and the housing market is at a standstill. Mortgage rates are high, inventory is low, buyers have fewer choices, and many homeowners refuse to put their properties... up for sale. But could things change in the second half of this year if interest rates fall and inventory improves, even if ever so slightly? We brought Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather on this BiggerNews episode to get her team’s latest 2024 housing market predictions. First, Daryl explains how our stubbornly strong economy put the Federal Reserve in a challenging position and whether or not we could hit the magic two-percent inflation rate goal. Will buyers ever get a break in this tough housing market, and could lower interest rates improve things? Daryl shares what she thinks will happen once the Fed finally cuts rates, how low rates could go, and whether or not this will heat home prices up yet again. Some “unusual demand” may come late this year for housing, but will agents, brokers, and sellers see the traditionally hot summer season they’ve been waiting for? We’re answering all these questions and more with this housing market data leader on this BiggerNews episode!  Support today’s show sponsor, Rent App: the free and easy way to collect rent! In This Episode We Cover 2024 housing market and mortgage rate predictions from Redfin’s Chief Economist  How our economy has stayed so stubbornly strong EVEN with rate hikes  Homeowner control and why buyers may be in an even worse position AFTER rates fall Improving housing inventory and what’s contributing the most to more homes on the market Why inflation may NOT need to hit the two-percent target for the Fed to lower rates The “lock-in effect” explained and why more homeowners with low rates could start selling And So Much More! (00:00) Intro (01:38) A Stubbornly Strong Economy (07:03) Housing Is STILL Hot? (13:23) Mortgage Rate Prediction ((18:29) Will Inflation Fall? (20:56) 2024 Predictions (23:53) An Opportunity for Investors Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-971 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Where is the economy midway through 2024? How are these stubbornly high interest rates impacting the housing market? Are people still locked into their homes or are they now more willing to move? We're covering the state of the market on today's episode. Hey, investors, I'm Dave Meyer solo today, which means we have a bigger news episode for you. If you haven't listened to this format before, every Friday, we bring you content that discusses what is going on in the housing market and economy at large. We'll bring you data, we'll bring you experts so you can make informed investing decisions. And today, the expert we are bringing on is the chief economist at Redfin. Her name is Daryl Fairweather. And on today's show,
Starting point is 00:00:48 we're going to pick her brain about what is going on in the housing market and the economy halfway through the year. On this episode, we're going to discuss why the data points to a strong overall American economy, but Americans don't feel that way about the economy in general. We'll also talk about our favorite word, my least favorite word of 2024, inflation, and how it is impacting the average American and the housing market. We'll also talk about the lock-in effect and why home sales volume has remained so low throughout this year. And lastly, we'll talk about a couple of predictions Daryl has for the rest of the year. Before we jump into the episode, I want to thank our sponsor for today, which is Rent app. It is a free and easy way to collect rent.
Starting point is 00:01:33 And if you want to learn more, go to rent.com.com slash landlord. Let's bring on Daryl. Daryl, welcome to the Bigger Pockets Real Estate podcast. Thank you for being here. Thank you for having me. I'd love to start with the broader economic picture before we jump into the specifics of the housing market. So can you just give us an overview of what's happened with the economy so far in 2024? 2024 has been a year of strong economic growth, but economic growth is not exactly what we were hoping for this year, strangely. We were hoping that the economy would slow down to the point that prices would slow down, too, that we would get some relief from inflation, but that
Starting point is 00:02:14 hasn't happened very quickly, which has caused the Fed to keep interest rates high, which makes borrowing for anything more expensive, and that particularly hurts the market for homes. And what do you attribute the stubbornness of inflation to? Why has the economy stayed as relatively hot as it is? And I should clarify, it has slowed down, right? It's slower than it was in 2023, but it is still technically growing. Real GDP, inflation adjusted GDP is still technically up year or year. So why is that?
Starting point is 00:02:47 Well, my theory for why the economy is still so strong is that the pandemic destroyed a lot of the economy. It destroyed businesses. It destroyed old ways of doing things. And with that, came the opportunity for new kinds of growth in the economy. It's kind of like what happens in nature. When there's a forest fire, it's right after the fire that you see the most new growth of trees. And you can think of small businesses being in the same way. And that was also fueled by a long period of low interest rates and money flowing into the economy from the government. And also government spending. The inflation reduction act was a big bill. And that is still getting rolled out and that's why we're seeing growth in government jobs and that contributes to the economy as well.
Starting point is 00:03:27 So I think that, I mean, all roads lead back to the pandemic in terms of why we are where we are right now. But the pandemic did change the way that we do things and that has been beneficial to the economy. But too much economic growth means prices go up too quickly because people are trying to hire really fast and then wages grow up and that leads to higher costs and more inflation. And that's why the Fed needs to intervene because if you let the economy grow too fast for too long, you get bubbles, you get inflation, get a lot of bad outcomes. And this is sort of a subjective question, but I'm curious of your opinion on despite the fact that real GDP is up, I think it was like 1.3% last quarter, there's also this sentiment that the economy is doing very, very poorly. Do you have any ideas on sort of this juxtaposition between the economic data and economic sentiment right
Starting point is 00:04:18 now? Sure. I think you can look at what part of the economy are adding jobs or wages are growing, which is mostly the bottom of the economy, the lower wage jobs. There's been a lot of progress with unions, with minimum wage increases. And if you are middle class, it might just feel like things are more expensive without there being really a lot of benefits to you. So I think that's where a lot of the disconnect is. It kind of depends on where you sit in the economy, whether it feels better or not. But when you look at the unemployment number, you can't really deny that more people have
Starting point is 00:04:48 jobs now or fewer people are looking for jobs. those jobs are still being created. So it might just not be in the areas of the economy that we traditionally thought of this strong like real estate or like technology. Yeah, that makes sense. When you dig into the job numbers, it does seem like some of the lower paying jobs are really where we're seeing growth. And I, you know, I work in tech. So you hear a lot of people struggling to find work in tech, which is obviously just one of high paying sector. But I've definitely heard that anecdotally through people I know. I'm all. curious about sort of this just, you know, psychological impact of inflation because it does
Starting point is 00:05:28 seem that inflation is slowing down. But the sticker shock, at least for me, hasn't gone away. And I wonder if that's sort of what's going on with everyone is we just haven't mentally gotten used to how expensive things have gotten in the last few years, even though the rate of change has come down a bit. Yes, I think that's correct. So the government has their way of measuring inflation where they do surveys and they collect price points for the entire broad economy. But any individual or any one person's experience of inflation is going to be on their own personal timeline. I'll give you an example. Like I'm going to install windows on my house and I had no idea how much it costs to install windows or how that's gone up. And I didn't realize it
Starting point is 00:06:10 until I got the quote. So I think that people are figuring it out when they go to buy a car or when they're doing renovations on their home. People have been known about the grocery store price increases for a while. And I think that just reflects the fact that people go to the grocery store every day, but for these larger purchases, they don't happen quite as often. That's such a good point. It kind of just like keeps coming up every couple of weeks. You know, you get used to one thing, but obviously you don't buy windows very frequently. And every time you go and try and make this one big purchase, it's kind of just like another gut punch, if you will, on how expensive is. And that could be psychologically sort of painful to just like keep experiencing
Starting point is 00:06:49 saying this decline in spending power. I think it's a reality check for people that they maybe thought that their savings could potentially last them a certain amount of time. And they realize, oh, I'm going through the same as a lot quicker than I thought I was because of these larger expenses. All right. So now that we understand what's going on in the broader economy, let's zoom in on the housing market.
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Starting point is 00:10:15 into our mid-year market update. So I do want to get back to our discussion of the broader economy in a little bit, and we'll start looking forward. But before we do that, let's just get a status update on how the economic climate has impacted the housing market in particular. Well, the housing market, it depends on where your perspective is on the housing market. If you are a homeowner, the good news is that home values continue to go up. Prices are up 4% from last year.
Starting point is 00:10:44 So it's outpacing inflation at the moment. I mean, it does depend on what market you're in. There are places where prices are going down, like in Texas and in Florida. For the most part, home values are still going up. The issue really is that there isn't much volume. There are still very few listings. There's very little inventory, very few purchases happening. But the market is in balance because buyers are still outnumbering sellers,
Starting point is 00:11:10 which is supporting value growth. And how does that work, given what we were just talking about with inflation? How are there still more buyers than sellers? So normally or historically when interest rates go up, it destroys demand for homes because you have to borrow to buy a home usually. And when borrowing costs go up, fewer people can afford to have that mortgage to make that purchase. But what was unique about the pandemic was that for a moment, interest rates came down to record
Starting point is 00:11:38 lows around 3% for 30-year fixed rate. everybody who, you know, was paying attention either got that low mortgage when they bought a home or refinanced their existing home with a mortgage that low. And so people who currently have homes have these really low mortgage payments. And if they were to sell and buy again, if they were to buy even just an equally valued home, they would end up with a much larger mortgage payment than they had before unless they're coming with significant equity. So the kinds of people who are selling right now tend to be people who do have a lot of equity in their homes can afford to make a cash purchase with their next one, they're downsizing or they're moving to a more affordable
Starting point is 00:12:15 market. But everybody else is better off just holding onto their home, even if it's not ideal, even if they really wished that they lived across town or they had an extra bedroom, people are financially finding it better just to stay in place. So that has constricted new listings significantly. So what Daryl is talking about here is something known as the lock and effect. You may have heard of this term. It's kind of all over the media right now. But basically the idea is that mortgage rates during the pandemic went to historic lows. They were in 3%. I even know people who had high 2% mortgages. And so many people bought homes with those low mortgage rates or refinance existing mortgages with those low rates that they don't want to give it up. So people who may
Starting point is 00:13:00 normally have wanted to sell their home right now, it's not very attractive to do so because if they sell their home, they're going to have to buy a new one and finance it with a much higher mortgage, meaning that even if they went to a similarly priced home or even a cheaper home, their mortgage payments might go up. And this is quote unquote locking people in to their existing homes. Now, as you mentioned, inventory is still very low, transaction volumes low. But from my understanding, thanks largely in part to Redfin and your reporting, is that inventory is starting to tick up a little bit this year.
Starting point is 00:13:35 It's still low in historical context. But where is that new inventory coming from? Yeah. So we hit a rock bottom of inventory last year, but things are starting to improve. A lot of that is just people needing to move and not being so motivated by money, but being motivated by a marriage or a new baby or a divorce or a death, the kinds of things, or a new job. There are so many reasons people might need to move that would motivate them to do it,
Starting point is 00:14:00 even if it doesn't make the most financial sense just from a mortgage payment perspective. Another reason that we're seeing more home purchases is that new construction continues to be a strong part of the market. It was seeing some weakness last month, but the new jobs report shows a lot of new construction jobs being added. So it seems like the construction industry is still doing well. And they're benefiting from the fact that demand is spilling over from existing homes into new construction. New construction tends to be more expensive. But when there's nothing existing for sale, then you get more people interested in new builds. And on the demand side, do you think there's a point where the demand may just run its course?
Starting point is 00:14:41 I'm just curious if there's just a fleeting number of people who are willing to pay these high prices. And it makes me just curious. If we're starting to see inventories tick up, it's slow. But and demand maybe starts to taper off a little bit. If we might start to see some downward pressure on appreciation, not necessarily declines in how prices, but it's up. 4%, which is a pretty solid clip. So I'm wondering if you have any thoughts on where it might go the rest of this year. Well, right now it is, for the most part, more affordable to rent a home compared to buying one. And I think that that has been pushing people more into the rental market.
Starting point is 00:15:21 And that will likely continue as long as mortgage rates remain high for the for sale market. But that additional demand for rentals is eventually going to pull the market into equilibrium. Like, it's not normal for it to be more expensive to buy a home than to rent one because of that. We're sure everybody would rent one and then rents would go up. There has been more inventory added, but it kind of depends on what geography we're talking about. So in the south, there's been a lot of multifamily construction. So I think rents could still go down. And that would just pull even more people into the rental market and solid demand for homes for sale.
Starting point is 00:15:55 But other parts of the country, rentals are still constricted. And it could still be advantageous to even buy a home. for the purpose of wrenching it out, which adds more demand to the for sale market. So, yeah, I think that in the long run, there will still be demand for homes for sale, but that's because rents will go up and people will eventually find it, you know, financially beneficial to buy instead of to rent. I never really thought of it that way that, you know, if eventually it just sort of has to equalize because rents will become too expensive in that equation that everyone, you know,
Starting point is 00:16:28 most would-be tenants or homebuyers have to make is which one is cheaper and more economically beneficial will at some point equalize. When that happens, no one knows, I guess, but I'm curious, I almost feel bad asking this question because no one knows, but I have to ask you about your opinion on interest rates and where you think they're heading, because it seems like every other day the Fed sends mixed signals. What's your read of the situation? I think if they're going to fall, I think that, you know, I've been saying this for a long time, so I feel like I'm the boy that cried wolf on interest rates, but it just is just taking longer. It's just taking longer to get inflation under control, but eventually the Fed will succeed and that goal and interest rates will
Starting point is 00:17:11 come down. They might not come down as much as people were hoping they would come down. They're probably not going to go down to 3% or even 4%. I think long rate interest rates, you know, might equalize at around 5.5%. They're going to come down from where they are right now because we're still in this inflationary period, which necessitates high interest rates. But it's not in the Fed's long-term goal is to keep interest rates high just with sake of keeping them high. They will bring them down when they sense that inflation, that problem has been addressed. And you just mentioned that the, you know, the sort of equilibrium interest rate, which is this sort of mythical idea that at some point it will sort of have like this perfect balanced interest
Starting point is 00:17:52 rate would be at five and a half percent. And I know that a lot of people at least listening, to the show may see that as high. But I just want to provide some historical perspective. I think for the last, since the late 70s, early 80s, when interest rates were crazy, the long run average is like above six, right? Well, they were trending down for a long time. And that was supported a lot by demographics about people moving into safer assets. And that kind of shifted demand and kept interest rates going down. But that was pre-pandemic. I think the post-pandemic economy looks very different when it comes to interest rates and the pressures on them. I mean, there are so many things that go into interest rates. I could point to the global instability. I could point to climate change. I could point
Starting point is 00:18:37 to, you know, the state of democracy in the United States and people's faith in treasury bills. There's like so many reasons to be worried about interest rates remaining high for longer. But there are also, you know, reasons that I think are more optimistic. about interest rates coming down. So I don't really have super strong opinions on where they will land long term. What I will say is that, you know, 3% was the interest rate during a pandemic recession global crisis. If there was another recession, I think interest rates could drop down below 4% again. That's still on the table. But when the economy is doing well, you want to keep interest rates high. So you have that gap. So you can drop them to supercharge the economy when you need it.
Starting point is 00:19:18 So I think comparing it to 3% is just the wrong comparison point. If we get into, to another recession, it could drop down. I keep saying that to people, is if mortgage rates get down into the threes or even the fours, like something has gone wrong, probably like you don't get that without consequences. Like something on a major economic scale has gone awry for the Fed to drop rates that low and for mortgage rates to come that down. Maybe people want to root for that, but it's not without consequences. So obviously, we're hoping that inflation comes down.
Starting point is 00:19:52 we reach some sort of equilibrium. We don't know if and when that will happen. But let's just for sake of argument, say that rates do come down a bit towards the end of 2024, maybe into 2025. How do you see that impacting home sales volume and home prices? As interest rates come down, a demand will come back to support stronger price growth. I don't think that affordability will improve in the long run unless we get significantly more supply online.
Starting point is 00:20:20 So when you have a movement in interest rates, it'll just bring back demand. And also what I talked about with the mortgage rate lock and effects, those are homeowners who are comparing themselves to the 3% mortgage rate that they got. Having it come down from 7% to 6% isn't really going to be motivating from a seller's perspective, it's going to be much more motivating to buyers, which is why I think it would juice demand and lead to more competition and more price growth. That's a really important distinction and question I was about to ask you, which is because if the lock in effect sort of was created because of rapidly rising interest rates, it seems possible at least that if rates come down, yes, it will increase demand because things become more affordable, more people want to buy homes, but it could also increase supply. And it sounds like maybe that will happen, but in your estimation, it won't be proportionate. The rise in demand will be greater than the potential rise in supply. And for a quick econ lesson, that will put upward pressure on pricing. Yes. And the kinds of sellers who are sensitive
Starting point is 00:21:28 to interest rates are the kinds of sellers who are buying again. So even for every one of them that lists their home, they're going to be buying a home and adding to demand. So I think that it almost necessarily has to be disproportionate that there would be more demand than added supply. Okay, we have to take one more quick break, but when we come back, Daryl tells us what has her surprised about the housing market so far this year and her advice for investors navigating this market. Stay with us. Most investors spend more time chasing deals than reviewing their insurance.
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Starting point is 00:24:20 So, yeah, and that's why we're in the situation where we are with the housing market. So, yeah, I just figured things would move quicker than they have on interest rates coming down and inflation getting under control. The inflation data is just so annoying, in my opinion, because I know that's not a technical or professional term, but every time you dig into the data, you start to see these trends where one category will start to come down and it gets encouraging. But then it's just like whackamol. This other, you know, one other sector of the economy will start to see outsized inflation and bring the total core or the headline CPI back up. And it just, it's hard to forecast when that might end. I'm starting to really wonder if and when 2% is realistic. Do you think it can happen, let's say, in the next year?
Starting point is 00:25:13 Well, I don't think that it needs to be literally 2% for the Fed to start cutting because the data that we get is lagged, meaning that it really represents what things were like, you know, months ago compared to now. But that is one of the reasons that the Fed can't declare victory too soon is that you know, they might get a wrong and, you know, there are more moles, as you said, emerging that we just didn't know we're underneath the ground before they stop. So it's, it's really tricky for them to get the timing right, but there are risks to not cutting as well. Absolutely. Yeah, we're already starting to see GDP start to decline and slow. And although the labor market data is super confusing, it seems like the overall trend is that it's cooling a little bit. And so there's obviously
Starting point is 00:25:57 risks there. And I think it's important what you just said for everyone to pay attention to is that the Fed is not necessarily looking at the most recent data in general. And they're not just looking at the most recent print of that data. They're looking at trend. And they want to understand the trajectory of different inflation indicators. And they're going to use what they forecast inflation to be sort of as their barometer of if and when they should cut rates. Let's turn to the rest of 24. You've given us some indication of what you think will. will happen. But do you have any sort of predictions on the broader economy and how it will hold up with these high interest rates? Well, I think that by the time interest rates come down,
Starting point is 00:26:44 the summer housing market will be kind of over for the most part. So we might see, you know, an unusual amount of demand in the fall and in the winter if interest rates were to come down, but it's going to be at a time when it's not really matter for the market so much. So I think, you know, for the most part, we're anticipating that this will be another down year, or not down, because they'll be up from last year, but down historically year for sales. It would be difficult for listings to increase enough to, like, support a lot more purchases this year. So unfortunately, it's just, it is what it is. But I guess the optimistic take is that we don't think it will get worse than it is right now. So if you have business right now and things
Starting point is 00:27:26 are good from your perspective, then I wouldn't expect that to change too much, if anything, I would expect there would just be more buyers in the market. And it does kind of depend on each agent or investor's perspective because markets do vary a lot locally. There are still homes that are getting multiple offers. There are still homes that are like, I mean, prices are still going up. So again, if you're on the ground trying to find a home, it won't feel like there's anything necessarily weird about the housing market except the lack of inventory. That's the weird part.
Starting point is 00:27:55 I don't think that's going to change this year. What does make that change? Well, I think over time, the lock and effect will ease. People who bought homes in 2022 at 5% interest rates could potentially be ready to sell again already by 2025. I mean, it'll be a little bit on the early end. But we'll just start to see the impact of what happened in 2020 and 2021 fade as it just becomes part of the distant past.
Starting point is 00:28:25 Even for people who have those low interest rates, every month they're paying off, they're paying down their equity and that mortgage payment matters less to them because they have more to put towards cash purchase on their next purchase if they wanted to. So yeah, it's just going to naturally fade, but it'll probably fade over the course of like a decade. It's going to be a little bit less impactful every year. Yeah, there's not going to be some sort of event where all of a sudden, at least in your estimation, there's not going to be some sort of event where we're going to see some huge influx of supply. I think that the kind of supply will start to see, will be the homes that were built during the pandemic going up for resale. Those would be the
Starting point is 00:29:04 kinds of existing homes. And you can look at where those are located. They were mostly in the south and in the exurbs and in rural areas or suburbs because that's what was popular then. But those existing homes that have been around since before 2019, those are probably still going to feel that lock in effect. Great. And my last question before we get out of here, Daryl, Do you have any advice for people who are hoping to purchase this year and how to navigate this tricky market? But one of the exciting trends I see for investors is that there's been a lot of liberalization when it comes to upzoning. So ADUs can go in on single family lots and all of California. And that's true in other states as well.
Starting point is 00:29:51 There's been a lot of progress on that. So I think there's a lot of opportunity for investors who are just spying to rent, but they want to do something with the home and get even more value out of it, have even more tenants. So that's a thing to keep an eye on. Right. Well, Darrell, thank you so much for joining us today and sharing your knowledge and research with us. For everyone listening, if you want to connect with Darrell or check out any of the researcher her and her team do at Redfin. We'll make sure to link to that in the show description or the show notes below. Darrell, thanks again. Thank you.
Starting point is 00:30:42 Thank you all for listening to the Bigger Pockets Real Estate podcast. Make sure you get all our new episodes by subscribing on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Our new episodes come out Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. I'm the host and executive producer of the show, Dave Meyer. The show is produced by Ian K, copywriting is by Calico content, and editing is by Exodus Media. If you'd like to learn more about real estate investing or to sign up for our free newsletter, please visit www.biggerpockets.com. The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only.
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