BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast - BiggerNews: How Harris/Trump's Housing Policies Could Impact Affordability

Starting point is 00:00:00 Housing affordability is near 40-year lows, and this is one of the most pressing issues for investors today, and frankly, just for anyone who wants to own a home. But when we talk about affordability, the solutions often come down to government policies. So the question is, what policies would actually have an impact on affordability? Today, we're tackling that and more. Hey, everyone, welcome to this episode of the Bigger Pockets of Real Estate podcast. Before we get into today's episode, which we have a great guest for, I just want to give a little bit of real talk here for a second. We are going to be talking about policies and views held by different political candidates in today's episode. And this could be a little bit daunting if you talk about anything remotely political these days.

Starting point is 00:00:51 You are liable to set off a firestorm. The show is not political in nature. And our goal is honestly just to try to uncover both sides of these policies. so you can inform your own opinions. And we want to have this show on, despite the relatively political nature, because affordability and supply are just huge central issues for investors. And so it's hyper-relevant to our community, something we just have to talk about. And two, because I think our community just generally wants to be informed about real estate

Starting point is 00:01:22 investing policies. Even when you may not fully agree with these policies, you at least should want to learn about them. And I think our community does. So just as you go into this, know that our objective here in these types of episodes is really just to fully explored issues from all sides. All right. With that said, we have a great guest to do this today to help us understand policy ideas around affordability. His name is Dennis Shea.

Starting point is 00:01:47 He works at the bipartisan policy center. He is the executive director of the Center for Housing Policy there. And today we're going to talk to Dennis about the roots of housing affordability and supply issues. how he thinks each of the presidential candidate's stances stack up, the Biden proposed rent cap regulation, and the housing solutions that economists generally think work better in today's housing market. All right, let's bring on Dennis. Dennis, welcome to the Bigger Pockets Real Estate podcast.

Starting point is 00:02:17 Thanks for being here. Well, great to see you again, Dave. Yeah, likewise. For our audience who hasn't heard from you before, Dennis, can you just give us a brief introduction to yourself and what you do at the Center for Housing Policy? Thanks for that, Dave. I am the executive director of the Tuilliger Center for Housing Policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. So we're a unit or a center within this broader organization. Our mission is to support initiatives that promote housing affordability. Bipartisan initiatives, surprise, surprise me at the bipartisan policy center. So we're advocates for, you know, a series of initiatives that are pending in Congress and have been proposed elsewhere to, address the housing affordability challenge.

Starting point is 00:03:01 Got it. Well, thank you for that introduction, Dennis. Can you just tell us about the scope of the affordability problem? Why is it so acute right now and how big is this issue in the United States? Well, it's an enormous problem. Both political candidates are talking about it. We heard at the Democratic National Convention the issue of housing affordability being raised. It's in the paper every day an issue about housing affordability. This crisis for, I think, a lot of our listeners might seem recent since mortgage rates gone up.

Starting point is 00:03:34 But can you talk about the origin of it then if this is a decade old? Sure. I would say it started during the financial crisis, which obviously really hammered the housing market, basically collapsed. And as a result of that, we have not really rebounded fully since 2008. You know, we have a very insufficient residential construction workforce. Contributing more recently to this has been the supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Obviously, mortgage rates having risen have impacted affordability and you see the lock in effect. People who are lucky to get 3% mortgages are not selling their homes because they'd have to get a 6% or 7% mortgage. so that has kept inventory locked in.

Starting point is 00:04:24 So all these factors, particularly since the pandemic, where you've seen, you know, double-digit increases in home prices, double-digit increases in rental costs. You know, they're impacting not just lower-income Americans. They're really impacting middle-income Americans and affecting cities not just along the coasts or the big cities like Chicago, but, you know, really affecting places all across the country, including in rural communities.

Starting point is 00:04:49 Thank you for explaining that. And it does feel like it's gotten particularly hard over the last couple of years. And when you look at this objectively, because there are ways to measure affordability, it's usually some combination of home prices, mortgage rates, and wages. We are now at a point where home affordability is, I think it's about a 40-year low, the lowest it's been since the early 1980s. Is that how you see it as well, Dennis? It has been over the past couple of years with inflation. A major component of inflation is the rising housing costs.

Starting point is 00:05:24 Big part of the problem is the mismatch between the supply of homes and the demand for homes. We've underbuilt housing. There have been various estimates since the Great Recession by millions of homes. Millennials, the Gen Zs, a new household formation, is this great demand for housing with just not enough supply, particularly affordable supply, to meet the demand. And that's why your costs have gone up. All right. Well, I do want to get into some of the candidates' proposals as our audience. We're particularly interested about how the outcome of the election might impact their real estate portfolios or their investing decisions. But before we do, Dennis, can you just tell me a bit about what types of policies you believe would best benefit the country right now?

Starting point is 00:06:15 It doesn't need to be a specific bill or act. But what are the ideas that could help alleviate this problem? Just generally speaking, I mean, regulatory reform is essential. Land use and zoning reform is essential. A lot of housing, of course, is a local issue. And more and more communities across the country are realizing that they need to reform their land use and zoning regulations to allow greater housing density in their communities so that people can live there. And you see that in both, you know, red states and in blue states.

Starting point is 00:06:49 Some of the leading advocates of regulatory or land use zoning reform are people like Greg Janforte, who's the governor of Montana, and Spencer Cox, who's the governor of Utah, leading at the state level to say in these communities, we've got to, you know, allow more a greater diversity of housing types in these communities. You know, parking minimums, for example, are a major, you know, disincentive to build more housing. going through permitting processes. So, you know, there's a move to have more as of right. If you do certain things, you're automatically allowed to build a certain type of home. So I think just generally speaking, regulatory land use, zoning reform is an essential component of the solution. Can I just cut you off there, Dennis, just to make sure everyone understands. I think regulatory reform generally means it's tough for construction, right? Like, it's difficult for people to build.

Starting point is 00:07:45 new housing, permits can take a long time. Like you said, a lot of multifamily has minimum parking requirements to build a multifamily place, and it just disincentivizes some developers from building. Meanwhile, building multifamily is much more efficient on a per square foot per unit, per bedroom basis. And so if you could make it easier to build multifamily homes, that could translate into more affordable housing. And I think a similar principle applies to, with land use reform, right, rather than trying to build millions of single family homes, if you build housing units in multifamily and townhouses, you know, ways that are just a bit more efficient construction-wise, that could bring down construction costs and those savings

Starting point is 00:08:31 could get passed along and make housing relatively more affordable. Is that the right theme there? You said it perfectly, Dave. You got it right on target. All right. Great. Well, sorry for cutting you off. You were about to add something else in there. No, I also think, you know, there's a recognition there needs to be some subsidy to build new housing that's affordable to lower income families in order for, you know, the development to pencil out. So we are big supporters at the Tuoliger Center of the Low Income Housing Tax Credit Program. We want to see it expanded. This is a program that incentivizes developers and investors in building and rehabbing rent restricted. affordable housing for lower income households. So it's been around the program since 1986. It's built

Starting point is 00:09:21 about 3.7 million affordable rental units. So there's legislation in Congress that would substantially expand support for the program, and we think that would be a wise investment. We recognize that for really the lower income building, you need some subsidy to support it. Thank you for explaining that. We do have to take a quick break, but stick with us. When we're back, will get into the presidential candidate's proposals on housing and whether they would move the needle on affordability. You ever head out on a trip, lock your door, and think, cool, my most valuable asset is now doing absolutely nothing. Because while you're off traveling, your home is just sitting there, quiet, empty, not contributing, which feels like a missed opportunity, considering it has solid

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Starting point is 00:12:49 closing, plus interest rates as low as 3.75%. They've partnered with BiggerPockets for over a decade, helping thousands invest smarter. If you want to do the same, visit BiggerPockets.com slash retirement to learn more. Welcome back to bigger news. We are here with Dennis Shea talking about affordability and housing policy. Let's jump right back in. Now that we understand some of the high-level concepts that could alleviate some of these affordability issues, can you tell us a little bit about what the candidates, Vice President

Starting point is 00:13:25 Harris, former President Trump, are proposing on their platforms? For my own experience, I've heard more housing-related stuff from the Harris campaign. Let's start there. What policies have you heard coming from that campaign? Well, she has called for the construction of three million new homes. She's calling for an expansion of the low-income housing tax credit, which I think has broad bipartisan support. She's calling for the Neighborhood Homes Investment Act enactment, which creates a tax credit like the low-income housing tax credit that incentivizes private investment in the creation of starter homes for sale in distressed areas, distressed communities.

Starting point is 00:14:07 And that has bipartisan support in Congress. She's also called for a new tax credit to stimulate production of starter homes, and there's not a lot of detail about what this new tax credit, but she says that it would complement the Neighborhood Homes Investment Act. So she's focused on supply. She's called for a $40 billion innovation fund, which I think is designed to provide incentives to local, communities to experiment with innovations in finance and construction. But I think from a bipartisan

Starting point is 00:14:39 perspective, I think a $40 billion price tag is probably too high. I don't think be a bipartisan political support for that in Congress. She's also called for a demand side initiative, $25,000 in down payment assistance, and perhaps even more for first-time homebuyers and first-generation homebuyers. And I don't think there's there's not a lot of Republican support or bipartisan support for that in Congress. I mean, the argument is that, you know, without really a substantial increase in supply, if you're just writing checks for $25,000 for down payment assistance, that's just going to be marked into the built into the price of a home and raise the cost. Yeah, I was wondering about that because just from an economics perspective,

Starting point is 00:15:24 if you're just going to induce more demand without adding supply, that's just a recipe for driving up home prices. So it could help people in the short run who receive that $25,000 credit, but in the long run, it's not actually likely to help affordability. Dennis, what about some of the other policies? You've expressed your support and your organization's support for the low-income housing credit and expanding that. What about these three million homes that the vice president Harris is calling for? Where do those homes come from? The argument is that by expanding the low-income housing tax credit, you're going to stimulate greater private investment. You're going to give an incentive to private investors to build affordable rental homes. If you pass a tax credit for developers

Starting point is 00:16:11 to build starter homes for sale, that's going to stimulate private investment. The housing innovation fund, she calls for the ideas that if you give money incentives to local communities to reform zoning laws or land use laws, they will take the money and do it. that and that will incentivize, you know, greater housing density and more supply. All right. So it's mostly, you know, public-private partnership ideas or creating financial incentives for private organizations to create housing. It's not like the government's taking on a massive construction project or the proposal. That's not proposed. The neighborhood homes and the low-income housing tax credit, that would be private-public

Starting point is 00:16:54 partnership. This housing innovation fund, which, you know, I just have detail in the press release. Sounds like it's government money going from one government, the federal government, to the local government to incentivize them to take positive steps. And I, again, I think the $40 billion just has no support on the Republican side in Congress. Before we move on to the Trump campaign and what housing initiatives they've been talking about, I wanted to ask about the rental side of things because before he stepped out of the race, President Biden had announced a plan for rent control. And again, this was just for the largest landlords. I think it was for landlords who owned more than 50 units, and it was a temporary restriction on tax incentives for these types of

Starting point is 00:17:43 landlords. Can you tell us a little bit more about that policy and if Vice President Harris has adopted that same position? You're right. I mean, I think you covered the details. It's a 5% rent cap that would apply to landlords with 50 units or more. If they raised it more than 5%, they would be penalized by getting some tax depreciation benefits removed. It would apply not to new construction, but to existing units. That's the idea. President Biden proposed it a little while ago. I think Vice President Harris continues to support it. It was not in the plan that she put out her economic plan, but I assume she continues to support what President Biden put forward. So that idea has no support on the Republican side in Congress. I mean, we're at the

Starting point is 00:18:33 Bipartisan Policy Center. We think solutions need to be durable over time need to be sort of bought in by both political parties. So the Twilliger Center has not taken a specific position yet on rank control, but we have studied it and you should go on our website at bipartisan policy.org and go to the housing section. We have outlined a lot of the arguments on both sides of the issue. My personal view is that type of policy of rent control, particularly at a time when we need more affordable rental housing supply, it's just a disincentive for developers and builders of rental housing to get into the business if their income stream is going to be capped. I don't think it's a particularly good policy. Well, we'll definitely link to that information.

Starting point is 00:19:17 Now, thank you, Dennis. We appreciate you sharing the research and sort of having a multifaceted, bipartisan look at rent control. I'm no expert on this topic, but I have researched it quite a lot. And in addition to Dennis's research, there's a great episode of the Freakonomics podcast about this. It's actually episode 373, if anyone else wants to check that out. But for my understanding, economists generally on the left and right agree on this, that rent control is not very effective. This doesn't seem to be a very controversial issue among economists. Is that correct? Correct. That's absolutely right. I mean, one economist that I've read said, I think he was from Sweden that if you want to destroy a city, impose rent control. So, yeah, Sweden, definitely on the left side of the political spectrum. So if you're hearing that, maybe it does reflect the somewhat universal belief that that rent control doesn't work.

Starting point is 00:20:18 But, Dennis, can you tell us why? Because I think, a lot of folks, you hear about rent caps and you say, oh, that's a great way to control costs and to improve affordability. But what is it about rent control that is ineffective? Well, I mean, again, I think ineffective, it is, we are really struggling with a real deficit of affordable rental housing or rental housing generally. If you impose a price cap on what an owner of a rental housing can receive, you're going to just provide a big disincentive to invest in the construction and production of new rental housing. So that's generally the argument that's been made. On the flip side, I help my brother with, he's a renter in New York City, and I just saw that his rent went up,

Starting point is 00:21:02 a couple hundred dollars a month. You know, he's on a limited income. And so it's politically appealing. If you say, you know, your rent's not going to go up, there are people who appreciate that. They're voters who appreciate that message. But from a policy point of view, from a policy perspective. We need more supply and I think rent control proposals are just a disincentive for developers and owners to build new new rental units. Thank you, Dennis, for diving into that a little bit with us here today. We do have to take one more quick break, but we'll get Dennis's thoughts on how Trump's policies would impact housing when we return. For decades, real estate has been a cornerstone of the world's largest portfolios. But it's also historically been sort of complex,

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Starting point is 00:26:02 They're not as detailed. I mean, there's language in the Republican Party platform that talks about improving housing affordability with a real focus on reducing mortgage rates by curbing inflation. So that is the big focus. President Trump has also suggested opening up some portion of federal land to the construction of new homes. So the federal government owns a lot of land in the United States. So the suggestion is it may be certain areas of the country where it might be suitable to open these federal lands to new construction by private industry. He also calls for help in a very general way, the platform does, in a very general way to help potentially. first-time homeowners get into homes. But his general background as a developer would, for me, at least, suggests that building more housing while trying to reduce inflation would be the general approach. And you had mentioned that there is bipartisan support for some of the programs,

Starting point is 00:27:03 like the expansion of the low-income housing credit. Has the Trump campaign said anything for or against that idea? I have not seen that. They may have, but I have not seen that. In Congress, it has really very strong, like 250 co-sponsors, and half of them are Republicans, you know, from the conservative end to the sort of more moderate Republican. And so I think that would be something that Trump administration potentially would support. I've not specifically seen him commenting on that. Got it. This might be a can of worms. But if there's so much bipartisan support for the expansion of the low-income housing credit, why hasn't it passed yet? Well, that's a great question. Probably your listeners who probably have heard of the tax relief for American workers bill, which was hammered out

Starting point is 00:27:49 by Ron Wyden, the Democratic Senator from Oregon and Jason Smith, the Republican chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, and he's from Missouri. And it had a bunch of stuff on business tax cuts, business tax issues, child tax credit, but it also had a modest expansion of the low-income housing tax credit, which would have created about 200,000 new units over the next two years. That passed the House overwhelmingly, that whole package. Nobody opposed the low-income housing tax credit expansion. The issues were really around the child tax credit and the business tax, but just didn't get out of the Senate. And I think one of the reasons is because the Senate Republicans think, okay, we're going to be in charge in a few months. If you look at the political map,

Starting point is 00:28:34 we would like to write this package in a way that we would prefer. So it hasn't gotten passed. There's a lot of stuff, Dave, in Congress that, you know, has support, but it's just a matter of time and, you know, getting on top of the agenda for, you know, action on the House and Senate floor. So I think next year will be a huge issue, a huge housing tax policy play with the expiration of most of the 2017 tax law. So we'll see a lot of housing tax provisions, I think, in play next year. All right. Thank you for explaining that. I know there are a lot of complexities to the way the government and Congress runs. It sounds like with this one, people support the low-income housing tax expansion, but in this

Starting point is 00:29:21 particular bill, it was bundled with other maybe more controversial taxes and therefore couldn't get through both chambers of Congress. You got it. You got it. Yep. All right. Well, before we get out of here, Dennis, the last thing I'm curious to hear from you is about how increased affordability may.

Starting point is 00:29:40 impact current homeowners. The audience of our of our podcast here, a lot of real estate investors, aspiring real estate investors. And I'm curious if an increase of more supply into the market, could that hamper property appreciation? Could it lead to price declines in the market? Or how do you think about this in terms of maintaining or future wealth creation through real estate. I am personally not a real estate investor. I have invested in one home and that's the home I live in. Yeah, I've enjoyed, you look at the price appreciation over the past three or four years and it's really, really significant. There's been a lot of work done showing that the lack of access to affordable housing has really impacted labor mobility and really impacted

Starting point is 00:30:31 economic growth. And the economic growth in our country would be much higher significantly. higher if more people can move to where the jobs are because they have access to affordable housing. We like to emphasize the linkage between greater access to affordable housing, labor mobility, and economic growth in our country. Many of the people who are benefiting from the wealth appreciation or the equity appreciation in their homes also have children, as I do, and they need to find a place to live that they can afford. You know, we have future generations, they need to be able to find an affordable place to live and hopefully to become a homeowner and really attain the benefits which are considerable of home ownership.

Starting point is 00:31:17 Well said. And I want to point out to our audience who might be spooked by this conversation or just curious about it. But real estate investing was a good business when the housing market was more affordable too. You know, like during the 90s, it was still possible to run a, you know, a profitable real estate portfolio. And it was also simultaneously enabling more Americans to buy their own home, which helps the economy in general. Personally, I'm on board with the affordability, trying to improve affordability.

Starting point is 00:31:50 If we could get back to a housing market that was closer to the historical average of appreciation, which is just slightly above the pace of inflation, that to me is the sign of a healthy housing market. And hopefully some of these policies could help, Let's get back to that point. All right. Well, Dennis, thank you so much. We'll make sure to link to the research that you mentioned below, as well as your contact information

Starting point is 00:32:10 in the show notes. Thanks for joining us today. Dave, it was great talking to you. Take care. Have a great day. Thank you all for listening to the Bigger Pockets Real Estate podcast. Make sure you get all our new episodes by subscribing on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.

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BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast - BiggerNews: How Harris/Trump's Housing Policies Could Impact Affordability

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