BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast - BiggerNews: Renters Regain Control and a New Rent Price Forecast for 2025

Starting point is 00:00:00 As investors, rent prices and rent growth are some of the first things that you look at when you're analyzing a deal, considering a market, or just trying to figure out what kind of investments you're going to make. And for a long time, rent growth was relatively stable and predictable, but not for the last couple of years. These days, we have to pay much closer attention to rent trends. With all the supply that is going on, all the changes to demand in the marketplace, if we want our investments to perform, to their peak potential, we need to understand these things. And we can't just look at one top line national number. We have to look at the regional and market trends and understand really in our

Starting point is 00:00:40 subsection, our niche of the real estate investing world, what is happening because rent plays such a huge role in the performance of our investors. So today, that's what we're going to be digging into. Hey, BiggerPockets listeners. It's Dave here for weekly bigger news episodes. And it's been sort of a while since we talked about what is going on with rent trends. So I wanted to bring on an expert to help us understand what changes have been going on, how things are moving as we get towards the end of 2024 here. And so we're bringing on Igor Popov. He's the chief economist with Apartment List. They produce some really interesting, insightful reports. So I'm eager to bring on Igor to talk about, first and foremost, the, I'll keep it short, but recent

Starting point is 00:01:31 history of rents and what's been going on over the last couple of years, how the recent boom in multifamily supply has impacted rents and what's happening today in 2024. Then we'll turn our attention to the future and talk about how as supply peaks and new construction stops coming online in the next couple of years, like, what is going to happen to rents then? And because we're recording here on September 18th and just like an hour ago, we heard that the Fed cut interest rates by 50, We will get into that a little bit, but to be honest, still processing all of that information.

Starting point is 00:02:07 And I know for some people talking about rent trends and growth can feel like sort of this nerdy data-driven topic, but it doesn't have to be. And eager really does a great job of translating numbers and trends. It's very clear takeaways that can help you in your investing career and your investing decisions. And I think you're going to learn a ton from our conversation. So let's get into it. Welcome to the Bigger Pockets podcast. Thanks for joining us. Hi, Dave. I'm really happy to be here. Thank you for having me on. I'm excited to have you. We're going to talk and dig into rent growth, rent trends, all of that good stuff that our audience, I'm sure is very eager to hear from you about. But first, tell us a little bit about your background and your work at Apartment List.

Starting point is 00:02:50 Yeah, absolutely. I'm the chief economist and head of product analytics at Apartment List. I should say Apartment List is an online rental marketplace. So if you're a property manager, landlord, you can list a rental. If you're a renter, you can have a curated and a search experience to try to find the place that's right for you. And I lead our internal analytics, but also our research team that kind of has an outward-facing view

Starting point is 00:03:13 and tries to understand what's happening in the market and also try to make sure that the data that we're seeing while we operate our platform kind of gets into the hands of all of the people that need it most to make decisions. And so I have a really fun job. I get to talk to smart people all day and play around with a lot of fascinating housing market data.

Starting point is 00:03:31 And, you know, when I, when I started in this role, I had no idea just how bonkers the housing market in the U.S. would become as we got into 2020 and subsequent years. I think the demand for real-time rental data just shot through the roof. And so we found ourselves in a very fortunate position to be able to kind of provide that to some of the outside world. Yeah. So I'm eager to hear what is happening. But before we get into that, could you help us just set this? stage and provide some context for what is quote unquote normal rent growth like if you were to describe a bland year of rent growth and rent prices what would you expect you know when we were living

Starting point is 00:04:16 our lives in 2017 2018 2019 we didn't think of those as particularly normally years that we would refer to as as normal for for some time afterwards but from a rental market perspective rents, rent growth hovered between three to four percent annually, kind of outpacing broader inflation by just a tad. And there was some really interesting regional variation, but it wasn't dramatic. You know, kind of hot markets grew five to seven percent a year, cool markets might grow, you know, two percent a year, maybe one percent a year if rent growth was really sluggish. The only places with real double-digit rent growth would be small kind of fracking or oil towns when something dramatic happened in the energy sector, they would have a big swing.

Starting point is 00:05:00 Come 2020, when the pandemic hit, everything really changed overnight. And all of a sudden, we found that these real-time shocks and demand could have dramatic swings on the housing market. 2020, we saw, you know, rents really nosedive in some of the cities where, you know, location was at the highest premium, right? New York, you're there because you want to be close to everything in New York. San Francisco, you want to be there because you want to be close to. close to amazing jobs in the amazing atmosphere. All of a sudden, when the shelter in place

Starting point is 00:05:32 economy took hold, proximity wasn't a good thing anymore. That price premium essentially evaporated, and we saw rent declines in some of the most highly populated U.S. cities on the order of 20 to 25 percent in places like New York and San Francisco and Boston. So, you know, I think that was the moment, Dave, when we had to kind of throw out the research agenda that we had to be. plan for 2020 and see, okay, how do we really focus in on what's going on right now? But what's even more interesting is what happened next, because as many of your listeners, I think, are deeply aware of that kind of created this coiled spring in the housing market, so to speak, that just let out all this energy in starting in the second half of 2020, but really going into 2021,

Starting point is 00:06:17 when we saw this massive boom in rents, our rent index showed rents grew 18% in 2021. Again, unheard of from a pre-pandemic understanding of the U.S. rental market. And then in the last couple of years, we've really been tracking a cooling market ever since. Interest rates started to rise. Economic uncertainty started to really take hold and some of that feeling of invincibility that some parts of the economy felt in 2021 started to dissipate. So that's still the market we're in today. But, you know, as we're talking, the Fed just announced a 50-bases point cut.

Starting point is 00:06:52 So it's certainly still a dynamic market. We haven't seen a quote unquote normal period of rent growth in the 2020s so far. Thanks for providing that context, Igor. I just wanted to call out that when you talk about cities like New York, seeing double digit 18%, 20% decreases, how abnormal that is. Even when you look back to periods of economic difficulty like the great financial crisis, same double-digit rent growth, correct me if I'm wrong, e-gore, basically doesn't happen. So, like, we had a really significant shift in trend and a severity of decline that hasn't happened.

Starting point is 00:07:37 Have the markets that saw those declines, like New York, have they since rebounded? Yes, they have. Some more strongly than others. New York City had the wildest set of swings because it was in the top two markets in terms of rent declines in 2020. And actually in the top two markets of rent growth in 2021. So I think if you were in New York renter a couple years ago, you were just massively confused and stressed. San Francisco has had a bit of a slower recovery because so much demand got swept away in the remote work acceleration from kind of San Francisco as a, as a, tech hub, but everyone really rode the rent rebound of 2021.

Starting point is 00:08:22 But this past year has really seen a lot more geographic diversity in what's happening with rent trends. The pandemic also brought with it kind of this U-turn away from what we were seeing in terms of urbanization and demand just flocking to downtown central business districts. I think renters voting with their feet are looking much more at kind of suburbs and places with more legroom on the margins as well. So there's been a rebound, but nothing compared to the kind of boom that we've seen in places like Tampa, Florida, Phoenix, kind of early in the pandemic. The move from urban to more suburban demand kind of caught me off guard. I guess everything about the pandemic caught me off guard.

Starting point is 00:09:03 But I, especially as an investor, sort of had this very almost stupidly simplistic view of where to buy real estate during this time was investing in Denver. Whereas the closer I could be to downtown, the safer the investment is, the less risky it is. And I have to say as an investor, it's gotten harder to pick neighborhoods because suburbia is just more plentiful. And it's not like, you know, it's easier to like draw concentric circles around downtown and be like, this is going to be good rent growth. And a little bit further out will be still good, but a little bit weaker and then weaker and then weaker. And now it's like trying to guess which of these suburbs is going to see pop off, which ones are going to suffer is super hard. I mean, this is a long shot, but do you have any, are there any trends to like what types of suburbs tend to see the most growth? You know, in terms of the types of places, too, really about those kind of opportunities, I think that the focus really shifted from being about proximity to work to being about proximity to amenities, kind of broadly defined, right?

Starting point is 00:10:07 I think there's been a real untethering, which is just a really fundamental shift, a real significant untethering. from where you choose to live and where you choose to work. So 30% of fully employed Americans work days are happening at home right now. That's not just folks that are fully remote and work solely on Zoom, but a lot of people have at least some days that they're working from home. You have all that. That's 30% of fully employed days. And even those that are going into an office, we're seeing we've been tracking this long trend of an increase in super commuting. People are just living first. further from work. And they're able to do that. Maybe they don't have to go in as often.

Starting point is 00:10:47 So they're kind of untethering this decision. And I think question becomes much more about, okay, if I don't have to be close to, what do I want to be close to? Is it whatever the types of amenities that the big millennial generation loves to be near? Is it schools? Is it urban amenities in suburban settings? Like, you know, the great breweries and restaurants. So I think that what I would look towards, and of course, there's no crystal ball, there's no hard and fast rule, but I think there's been a shift away from just work proximity, essentially to think of it as play proximity or proximity to the other things that you want to kind of power your life. So I think having a thesis around what that looks like and why a neighborhood has that

Starting point is 00:11:34 kind of draw would be really compelling and I think necessary because you're right, it has become a much more kind of multidimensional guessing game of where future renters will want to be. That's a great synopsis. Thank you, Igor. I think it's really important for our audience to hear what Igor's just said about having a thesis, because you can't just really guess, and that what works in one metro area suburb might not work in another one. For example, I used to live and invest in Denver and proximity to trails or proximity to outdoor activities was really popular. I have a lot of friends. I grew up in New York. And so what you were talking about, those urban experiences in suburban environments, I know like all my friends who are moving out of the city,

Starting point is 00:12:23 that's what they prioritize. So you really have to understand your market and come up with your own idea of what's going to drive demand. And if you live in that market, hopefully that should be hard because it's like, where do you want to live? Where do your friends want to live? Where are all your people moving? And you can sort of create the foundation of your thesis based on just your own personal experiences. Yeah. All right, time for a quick break. And then we'll be back with more bigger news with Igor Popoff. Here's why savvy real estate investors are obsessed with bonus depreciation. It lets you take that rental property or commercial building you own and depreciate most of the cost against your income.

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Starting point is 00:15:02 you need for tax season. You can even automate transfers and move money around without paying wire fees. It's just cleaner. Sign up at baselane.com slash BP and get a $100 bonus. Base lane is a financial technology company and not a bank. Banking services provided by Threadbank. Member FDIC. Thanks for sticking with us. Let's jump back in with Igor. Igor, thank you for sort of helping us understand the last couple years. How would you describe 2024 thus far in terms of the rental market? Uh, 2024 has really been a shift back to a market where the renter has a little more control and a lot more more options than certainly what we, what we saw a couple of years ago. Um, the big story, the big narrative is around a new wave of multifamily supply hitting the market this year and next.

Starting point is 00:15:50 And I think that's really, even though that's kind of just in largely Class A, largely multifamily, uh, it's still really kind of setting the tone for what's happening all across the different segments. of the rental market. And just to kind of give some context and put some numbers to it, we entered this year with a million units under construction throughout the U.S. for multifamily units alone. Looking back 10 years ago, that number was more like 300,000 entering 2014. Now we've got a million units in the pipeline entering this year with at least half of them hitting in 2024. And so I think that's really been the primary storyline that's kind of of shaping how a lot of Americans are perceiving the rental market, both on the investor's side

Starting point is 00:16:36 and on the render side. Thanks for providing that update. And I think the headline is really interesting because it's been very different, right? Obviously, it's different in every single market. But if you're saying that the average rent price is up now, what did you say year over year right now? Well, so actually, year over a year, we're tracking slightly negative rent growth. And again, that's because all this new supply is hitting the market.

Starting point is 00:17:00 We've been in negative year-over-year rent growth territory for a little bit over a year now. We saw in our rent index the peak rents were in August of 2022, and we still haven't kind of crawled back to that place. But those rent declines really concentrated in places like Texas, Florida, and some of the markets that are building the most, you look at the leaderboard for rent growth, and it's actually dominated by a lot of Midwest markets, right? I don't know when the last time was that the Midwest was dominating the U.S. rent growth leaderboards, but places like Cleveland and Louisville, Grand Rapids, Milwaukee, those aren't kind of currently big new supply markets.

Starting point is 00:17:44 And they're actually still seeing some strong rent growth. So we've had times where a lot of the U.S. moves together, but this is certainly a time where different markets are seeing very different experiences. So I might be saying, hey, it's a little bit negative, but someone in Austin or Raleigh might be feeling. that's actually quite negative and pricing power has really declined. And some folks in Midwest, Northeast might actually be feeling a pretty strong rent growth market. Just two quick questions. One, when you say negative, how far are we off peak from August 2020? Yeah, 2%. So just for context, we're still 22% above where we were March 2020 heading into the pandemic, but 2% off peak. So we essentially kind of reset to a new level.

Starting point is 00:18:28 level, there's almost no chance that we kind of revert to 2019 rents, but rent growth has evaporated. So it's kind of been like a, you know, kind of think of a balloon that escapes the room and goes to a room with a higher ceiling and bounces around there for a while. And is this just multifamily or is this everything? So we track primarily multifamily. Single family is, you know, also not booming in terms of rents right now. But I think it's seeing stronger rent growth. is not feeling as direct pressure from this new construction.

Starting point is 00:19:00 And the new construction boom is really concentrated in in multifamily. So I think the closer you are to the new supply that's hitting the market, just in terms of, you know, how likely renters are to have you in their choice set along with a new lease up. That's determining kind of how much of an open effect this new supply is having on rents and how cool the market feels for a certain property. I'm glad you brought that up because it's a question. I'm always thinking about is in so many ways commercial real estate and residential real estate just act differently. But rent is one area where I feel like in the Venn diagram of Sierra and residential, there's like some overlap. And so does that multifamily supply glut impact single family home rents or duplex rents, for example? Yes, I think it certainly does. It doesn't affect it as

Starting point is 00:19:53 much, you know, the close, again, the closer you are, the closer that substitution effect will be. But, you know, a lot of renters go into their searches without a stubborn preference for multifamily, single family. A lot of renters go into their searches saying, hey, I don't even know if I'll find a place in my budget at all. What's out there? And so a lot of renters are really choosing between, it always comes down to like the decision making process is going to determine what happens in the macro stats. So you have renters in Denver that are thinking, yeah, I'll take a single family home or a multi-family unit. Let's see what they have to offer. Let's see what the rents are. And so that means they do end up competing on price, even if they're not the closest substitutes.

Starting point is 00:20:32 I'm hoping, Igor, you can help me explain something that is very confusing. So we're talking about a multifamily supply glut, right? You explain the conditions well before that during the pandemic, there's all these positive factors for building multifamily housing. And now we're saying rents are slowing because there's too much multifamily housing. At the same time, every other day in the newspaper, you read about how there's a housing shortage in the United States. Can you help me square those two seemingly contradictory data points? Yeah, absolutely.

Starting point is 00:21:08 I mean, I think there's a time frame component, and then there's a persona or demographic component. You know, sometimes the analogy, this is a very California analogy because we were going through a drought a few months. You can have a period of heavy rain. It fills up the reservoirs a bit. but the storm passes and you're still in a drought. I think that's really what a lot of these markets are feeling.

Starting point is 00:21:30 And so what that means is on the margins, you'll see rents fall, but they might not fall to the degree that maybe they would in a more unconstrained market that had more building opportunity or less restriction on construction. You might see that with the households that are in the market today, they're feeling a lot of options, but there are a lot of households that aren't being created because the affordable inventory isn't there. As an example, one group I always sort of point to because I think they're so important

Starting point is 00:21:58 in the housing market, we have a large population of young adults living at home, living with their parents, right? So 17% of 25 to 34-year-olds live at home with their parents. We last saw that in 1940, just for context. And so you have a lot of people sitting on the sidelines of the housing market because they essentially either can't afford it or want to put their money, money elsewhere. And they don't even make it into statistics about renters because they're not renters yet. They're living at home.

Starting point is 00:22:28 They're not participating in the market. But different market conditions could certainly draw them in. And that creates a big kind of opportunity for a more dynamic housing market as well. So I think it's just a question about the scale that you're looking at. The more you zoom out, the more the picture looks undersupplied. That is so helpful. And I love that analogy of a flood. Obviously, no one wants a flood.

Starting point is 00:22:47 But it's kind of the situation, right? you know, during a flood, you have way too much water, but at the end of it, you still might not have enough water, which is essentially what you're saying is happening. That's a very good way to put it. Thank you. We have to take a break, but when we're back, I'm going to ask Igor when he expects new multifamily supply to drive up and what that means for rents in the near future. When I bought my first rental, I thought collecting rent would be the hard part. Nope. The admin crushed me. Every night was receipts, tax forms, and checking who was late on rent. I kept thinking, if this is one unit, how do people run 10?

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Starting point is 00:26:18 with multifamily supply because people apply for permits and it takes years to build multifamily. And so it's why even in 2022, a lot of analysts and economists were saying, hey, rent growth is going to slow down because we know this glut of supply is coming on. Now, at least where I'm sitting in 2024, I'm almost thinking the opposite's going to happen. You know, starting when in 2022 when rates went up, building conditions completely changed. And now the pipeline for new supply seems completely dry. To butcher our analogy even further, we're going into a drought again in terms of new supply. First of all, is that how you see it as well?

Starting point is 00:27:01 Yes, that's how I see it. And I think the questions are around when it will come and how long it'll last. I think it's a when and not an if because we're living through a big supply wave right now and there's not another one coming on the heels of it. And we're seeing that in multifamily permits coming down. completions, outpacing permits by a very strong rate. There's some disagreement about this, but I think my view is that 2025 will still feel a lot like 2024 in terms of ample supply coming online. When we get into 2026, it's pretty clear that the units that might make that

Starting point is 00:27:36 a supply-rich year, they're just not breaking ground at the same rate that would need. Now, the interest rate dynamics are going to determine how long that's going to last, or rates going to come down enough to where there's actually going to be kind of a healthy pipeline coming in after that. But that remains to be seen. Yeah, it's interesting to sort of think about because while you can see it coming, it's hard to sort of balance all the many variables. Obviously, single family, supply, demand, interest rates, the labor market. It's confusing. So even though you see this dearth of construction happening, the implications aren't super clear. But Igor, I'm curious.

Starting point is 00:28:20 I'm going to put you on the spot. Do you have a forecast or any thoughts on how rent growth will play out in the next few years? I think next year will still be very sluggish year for rent growth. Primarily, I think this really healthy supply pipeline, it's not going to be all released this year. So I think you're still going to see a lot of new lease. hitting the market, especially in the Sunbelt, places like Austin, Colorado Springs, in the Mountain West, the Florida markets. And again, demand is harder to predict, but I think that with rates coming down, I think that'll give some boost. So demand has been really healthy,

Starting point is 00:28:58 but I don't think it'll be so dramatic that it will really overpower the sort of tug-of-war with supply. And then I think things will really start to pick back up from a rent-growth perspective, maybe in the late 2025, but certainly in, in, in 20206. Now, we'll see what happens. You know, these past few years have been great for researchers back before Gaphas. One surprise after another. Yeah, exactly. One surprise after another. And it's, you know, who's the least wrong. But I do think that from what I'm seeing, the seesaw between supply and demand is still going to be, you know, relatively balanced, but still geared towards supply next year. And certainly through the end of this year, because I think that we're,

Starting point is 00:29:40 The housing market is also so seasonal that I think once you kind of miss the go-around of summer moving season, it's hard to generate a lot of heat in the market, I think, coming into the cool months, folks that haven't filled vacancies, property management companies that are looking to sort of get higher occupancy before the holidays, they're going to be lowering rents. And then the question is really going to be around how strong can demand be to kind of counteract the supply that's still being released from the pipeline come spring, summer moving season of 2025. Thank you for baking a bold prediction. I ask everyone on the show to make a prediction,

Starting point is 00:30:14 not everyone is willing to do it. When you say resuming rent growth in 2025, do you assume, you know, this elusive idea of a normal market? Like, could we maybe just see three to five percent rent growth? Like, you sort of were coming to expect in the 2010s at least? I think, I think so. I think we're sort of oscillating around that.

Starting point is 00:30:35 I think we'll get back to that at some point. we're not going to be just a sysong between extreme rent growth or declines for a long time. But that's where I need to be honest and say, I've made that prediction before. And it's taken longer than I think many of us thought to sort of get back to something that feels more like a clip at which rents are growing in line with other prices and output in the economy, right? Which is really kind of what I think normal would look like. Awesome. Great. Well, Igor, thank you so much for joining us today.

Starting point is 00:31:06 This has been a super helpful. context and lesson on red growth in the economy. Is there anything else that you've been working on at Apartment List, you're your team that you think our audience of real estate investors should know? Oh, well, I mean, we have a ton of, you know, tools, data for download. And so, yeah, if you go to the Apartmentless Research blog, just Apartmentalist.com slash research, I'll put in a plug. Lots of, you can track our latest, latest reports and also data releases there. So, Igor, this has been a huge help. Thanks again for joining us today. Thank you so much. I had a lot of fun. Thank you, David.

Starting point is 00:31:39 Of course, and thank you all so much for listening. I'm Dave Meyer for Bigger Pockets, and we'll see you soon for another episode of the Bigger Pockets podcast podcast. Thank you all for listening to the Bigger Pockets Real Estate podcast. Make sure you get all our new episodes by subscribing on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Our new episodes come out Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. I'm the host and executive producer of the show, Dave Meyer. The show is produced by Ian K, copywriting is by Calico content, and editing is by Exodus Media. If you'd like to learn more about real estate investing or to sign up for our free newsletter, please visit www.com. The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only. All host and participant opinions are their own. Investment in any asset, real estate included, involves risk. So use your best judgment and consult with qualified advisors before investing. You should only risk capital you can afford to lose. And remember, past performance is not

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BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast - BiggerNews: Renters Regain Control and a New Rent Price Forecast for 2025

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