BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast - The State of Real Estate Investing: What You Need to Know for 2025

Starting point is 00:00:00 I am convinced real estate is the best investment that you can make, both in the coming year and over the long run. And there might be some people that tell you this isn't the case, but I believe that the fundamentals and the reasons for investing in real estate are as strong as they have ever been. And in today's episode, I'll prove it to you. Hey, everyone, it is Dave from Bigger Pockets. And if this is your first episode of the year, happy new year. I and everyone at Bigger Pockets is super happy to have you here.

Starting point is 00:00:33 The beginning of the year tends to be a really exciting time for most investors. It's time to set goals, learn new skills, and if you're like me, devise a strategy for investing during the coming year. And in today's episode, I'm going to help you do all of these things, whether you just discovered real estate investing or you're an active investor. But we're going to do this today by taking a big picture approach. I want to make sure that we are all seeing the big opportunities ahead of us. We're going to talk about why real estate is such a great asset class in the first place, why it's the single best way to pursue financial freedom,

Starting point is 00:01:09 why it seems that we're finally slowly exiting this confusing stock market that we've been in, and why the fundamentals look good for this industry well beyond 2025. I commonly hear people asking, or wondering at least, if real estate is still worth it, if you should wait to invest, or maybe you should consider another asset class altogether.

Starting point is 00:01:30 And I actually wonder these things myself. Don't get me wrong. I love real estate, but frankly, I wouldn't keep investing in it if I thought there was a better way to improve my financial position. So over the last couple of weeks, I've been exploring this question quite a lot. You might know this, but I am a trained data analyst. So while I do think about this strategically and draw upon my experience, I also look deep into the data about other asset classes and what's going on in the macro economy. And what I came up with from all of this research got me really excited. It got me fired up about real estate investing.

Starting point is 00:02:05 And I want to share with you my findings. The good, the bad, the occasionally confusing, but mostly the empowering and unique potential that real estate investing offers. And that potential is still absolutely there, even in today's changing and different era of real estate investing. But first, I think we need to dwell on this for a minute and just admit something. And this, I know, will make some people uncomfortable, but it is the truth, at least least as far as I see it.

Starting point is 00:02:33 The housing market, the real estate investing market, has changed dramatically and permanently, and we need to acknowledge that. Affordability is the lowest it's been since the 1980s. Cash flow is a lot harder to find than it's been in a decade or two. There are fewer deals on the market. All of this stuff is true, and it raises the important questions about what it means to be a real estate investor in this new era that we're addressing here today. Is it all still worth it?

Starting point is 00:03:01 Well, as I told you, I've done a lot of analysis over the last couple of weeks, and after doing that, my answer is a resounding yes. Let me tell you why. First, the need for financial independence or financial freedom, that hasn't gone anywhere, right? You still need to take your financial future into your own hands if you want to have that sense of security and stability. Social security, you know, for years people were relying on that. well, that is scheduled to be insolvent within the next decade. Careers and job tenure are in decline. 40% of Americans don't even have access to a 401k, and only 25% of Americans feel financially secure.

Starting point is 00:03:43 Plus, working all the time is pretty much no one's goal, so I can go on and on, but we all get it, right? You need to take your finances into your own hands that absolutely has not changed. having some measure of financial independence is super important. So if this is you, if you are sold on the idea of financial independence, and I hope you are, and I think you are because you're listening to this podcast, then let me just explain to you why real estate, even now in 2025, is the best asset class to get you there. Financial independence has quite a few different definitions, but to me, it's really all about income replacement.

Starting point is 00:04:19 It's about finding a way through passive investing or more passive investing to replace your W-2 or your 1099 income. And real estate is great at that because at least when I survey the scene and look at different asset classes, the best potential for cash flow, even now in this more difficult market comes from real estate, it's still better than bonds, it's still better than stocks, it's still better than cryptocurrency. And that is sort of the cornerstone of financial independence. And so that's probably the strongest reason real estate is the best asset class to get you there.

Starting point is 00:04:52 But there are three other things that I want to share as well. The second one is the stability of the market, because if you want to be financially independent, you probably don't want to be in an asset class that has fluctuating values all the time. That doesn't sound very free to me if you're worrying about your portfolio all the time. And real estate, if you look at the history, and I'll share more about this in a couple of minutes, but if you look at the history, it is a very stable, relatively low-risk asset class, which is great for financial independence. Third is the diversity of the returns.

Starting point is 00:05:23 I mentioned cash flow, but on top of cash flow, real estate also offers the potential to generate returns from appreciation, from amortization, which is just basically paying off your loan, and using the amazing tax benefits that you get as a real estate investor, you also get to keep more of your profits. So that's third. And lastly, I also just want to explain that we do call it investing, real estate investing, but it is really entrepreneurship. As a real estate investor, you are starting a small business.

Starting point is 00:05:53 it's different from the stock market. It is different from crypto investing in that way. But real estate is a very simple business model. So real estate investing allows you a way to be an entrepreneur, to take control of your financial future without having to disrupt some industry or invent something entirely new. Instead, you get to just follow a proven path,

Starting point is 00:06:17 a proven business model that millions of people have done before you and just copy what they've done and enjoy the same successes that all these other real estate investors have in the past. And all these things, all of these reasons why real estate investing is a great way to pursue financial independence have been true for a long time. And they're still true, even in this new era. And let me just take a couple minutes then to explain why right now in 2025 I am so excited about real estate investing, despite what you might be hearing in the news or social media about real estate. All right, reason number one is low affordability.

Starting point is 00:06:52 I know this does make it more difficult to acquire new properties, and so as real estate investors, there are tradeoffs with low affordability. But I just want to mention the benefit that I think a lot of people are overlooking. Since 2022, housing affordability has basically evaporated, reaching 40-year lows, and making home ownership really relatively unattainable for the average American. But because this dynamic is unlikely to change in the coming year, or really in the next couple of years, in my opinion, demand for rental properties should be very high, and that will push rents up over the next several years.

Starting point is 00:07:27 That's great for investors. Second is housing supply. You've probably heard this, but the United States is an estimated 3 to 7 million housing units short of estimated demand. And while construction has picked up modestly, it would take decades at current construction rates to fill the gap. And furthermore, with high interest rates and the potential for tariffs upcoming, construction could slow in coming years.

Starting point is 00:07:51 And this dynamic should create strong demand for housing and rental units going forward. Both good things for investors. The third thing is demographics. You've probably heard this as well, but millennials are now the largest generation in the U.S. surpassing even the baby boomers and are now at peak home buying age. And it might not seem like this because home sales have slowed down, but the fact is that millions of millennial households are currently priced out of the market. But almost all of them say that they desire to own a home. There's basically

Starting point is 00:08:25 just a backlog of demand, which should provide a long-term tailwind for housing prices. Next up is market stability. I mentioned this before, but to me, real estate offers the best risk-adjusted returns of any asset class due to the relative stability of the U.S. housing market. I know that a lot of us lived through the crash in 2007, but aside from that market collapse, real estate prices in the U.S. have remained remarkably stable with consistent growth. I encourage anyone considering investing in real estate to just Google it. Google the median home price in the U.S. over time, and you'll see that it steadily goes up. If that we're going to change and we're going to see some sort of crash, we would see it in the

Starting point is 00:09:08 data. We would see a rise in mortgage delinquencies, basically people who aren't paying their mortgages. And right now, mortgage delinquencies are at a 50-year low. does feel like at least for the next few years, the market is going to remain somewhat stable. Next up is income replacement. We also talked about this a little bit before, but to me, of all asset classes, real estate offers the best way to earn predictable and stable monthly returns that can actually replace a traditional income. If you invest in bonds, you can earn three or four percent. That's true. Maybe you want to invest in dividend stocks. You can get one to four percent,

Starting point is 00:09:45 and those can offer modest cash flow. But real estate investment, offers a much higher potential cash-on-cash return from the outset of the investment. You know, you can buy something on the market right now and get three, four, up to eight percent cash-on-cash return. More importantly, because most real estate is bought using fixed debt and rents rise over time, cash flow, and rates of return tend to grow over time, only improving their potential for income replacement. Another reason I love real estate right now is because of that return diversity I mentioned,

Starting point is 00:10:18 Real estate offers multiple ways to earn returns on a single investment. Just one rental property can make money from cash flow, from market appreciation, from value ad, from amortization. You can use debt and leverage to scale quickly and multiply returns. And with all the tax advantages allowed to investors, you can keep more of your profit. With the inherent unpredictability of everything going on right now in the global economy, this diversity of returns reduces your overall. risk. Speaking of risk, another reason I love real estate right now is because it's a great

Starting point is 00:10:54 hedge to the stock market. The stock market has done very well in spite of high interest rates over the last couple of years, while commercial real estate has frankly suffered. But if the interest rate pendulum swings in the other direction, it is likely to happen due to a broad economic slowdown, like a recession. Remember that rates don't just drop when things are going well, rates drop when things aren't going well. And if that happens, the stock market will likely suffer. But those lower rates will probably see real estate in general and in particularly commercial real estate see a rebound. And given that the stock market is currently priced very expensively by historical standards and commercial real estate is relatively affordable,

Starting point is 00:11:38 this hedge against the stock market seems particularly important and prudent right now. Another thing we should talk about when we're talking about hedging is that real estate is a great hedge of inflation. During periods of inflation, so-called hard assets like gold and real estate have historically outperformed other asset classes. And while inflation rates have come down considerably in recent year, the risk of inflation, frankly, still remains. The U.S. national debt continues to explode, which will put pressure on the government to print money and devalue the U.S. dollar, which leads to inflation. Additionally, both major U.S. parties continue to push stimulative economic policies that can contribute to long-term inflationary pressures. Another reason it makes sense to hold real estate right now. A few more for you are the tax advantages.

Starting point is 00:12:28 I've alluded to this a couple times so far, but real estate offers a host of tax advantages well beyond any other asset class. Not only does real estate offer multiple ways to earn returns on a single investment, but the tax code, generally speaking, allow to real estate investors to keep more of their profits. And with a new Trump administration taking office, tax advantages for real estate investors will at a minimum be preserved and are likely to be expanded. And lastly, this is less economic, but I also just want to mention one of the reasons I'm personally so excited about real estate is that you're providing a needed service. Housing is a sort of a universal need, and providing safe and comfortable housing is a valuable

Starting point is 00:13:11 and needed service in our society. As affordability and the housing market has declined and Wall Street enters the housing market, the need for skilled and caring housing providers is increasing. So those are just some of the many amazing long-term reasons to be a real estate investor. We do have to take a quick break, but when we get back, I'm going to address the common refrain that I hear right now that real estate investing isn't as good as it used to be. I think that is complete nonsense, and I'll explain why after the break. Have you ever lost a DSCR deal because the financing just took too long?

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Starting point is 00:16:52 bill.com slash bigger pockets. Welcome back. Right before the break, I was sharing with you many of the fundamentals pointing to real estate investing being the best asset class for financial independence. But perhaps you are not yet convinced. Maybe

Starting point is 00:17:12 you're thinking that real estate is not what it used to be or things are harder than they once were. And in some ways you're right, it is different. Some elements of real estate investing are going to be harder, but some are going to be easier too. There are always tradeoffs. And I want to talk about this for a little bit. I want to address an important thing about our industry that everyone who is currently investing in real estate or is considering investing in real estate needs to know. The period of time, the previous era from 2013 to 2022 was an anomaly. It was an outlier.

Starting point is 00:17:46 It was not normal. There, I've been wanting to say that for a while, and I am happy to finally just put that out in the open. Because if you look at the data, and believe me, I have, it was a very unique time to be a real estate investor. Following the Great Recession, a perfect storm of conditions was created. I like to call it the Goldilocks era where basically everything was just right. Because of that crash, housing prices dropped more than any time in American history. Rates were low, which supercharged affordability was the best affordability in decades. Meanwhile, rents stayed relatively high, which made cash flow easier to find than it had been in decades.

Starting point is 00:18:30 Tons of builders went out of business, which limited new supply and put upward pressure on housing prices. it was a really easy time to be a real estate investor. But I need to remind everyone that this was an unusual set of circumstances that is unlikely to repeat itself anytime soon. And that is okay. Real estate investing is still the best way to pursue financial independent. Just think about it. Real estate investing has been a business for literally centuries.

Starting point is 00:18:59 It's probably one of the oldest businesses there is. And it's been a good business even when you're not getting this business. magical set of conditions like we were from 2013 to 2022. It was a great business in the 80s. It was a great business in the 90s. And it will be a great business going forward. As investors, we really shouldn't be comparing today's opportunity to the past. It is honestly a pretty worthless exercise.

Starting point is 00:19:25 The question that we all should be thinking about is what is the best use of your money today? How can you move closer to financial independence today? The question is not, can I get the exact same returns today as I could 10 years ago? That doesn't make any sense. Just think about this in the context of another asset class. Think about the stock market. If you look back over the last 30 years or so, 2013 was a fantastic year for stocks.

Starting point is 00:19:53 There was over 30% growth in just that single year. Does that mean that stock investors are sitting on the sidelines not investing for the last 12 years because returns are less than 30%. I certainly hope not because they would have lost out on a hundred or 40% growth. The point here is that we need to optimize for the new era, not think about bygone eras that probably won't return. Are you going to get the same returns in 2025 as you did in 2017? Probably not.

Starting point is 00:20:25 But is real estate still the best way to move you forward financially in 2025? I think so. So if we're not going back to where we were, and we're entering a new era. The question is, what is the new era? What will it look like? I'm calling it the upside era. I call it the upside era because you can and probably should be a conservative investor right now

Starting point is 00:20:48 while still looking for and finding opportunities for long-term upside. Because the upside of real estate is still the fastest path to financial independence and because real estate provides the best upside of any asset class in today's day, and age. Of course, there will be tradeoffs. It's not going to be this can't miss any deal will work market that we had during the Goldilocks era. I think we're going to still see low affordability. There is going to be lower deal flow. But for smart investors who are diligent, there is going to be a lot, a lot of upside. So if you have appropriate expectations, the upside era is going to be incredible for you.

Starting point is 00:21:33 Trust me, I have actually done the math. I built a whole calculator to figure this out. And I'll share the math with you in a future episode. But for now, I'm just going to share the headline with you. Right now, in the upside era, you can replace your income with real estate investing, just using regular average on market deals in just 10 to 15 years. And that is incredible. That is just the average using on market.

Starting point is 00:22:01 average return deals. The average career in the United States is 45 years, and I'm telling you that using real estate investing, you can reduce that by as much as 30 years with average deals, and you can actually speed it up even further if you become a great tactician and really want to hustle a lot in your real estate investing career. And this analysis, what I'm talking about right now is about this era that we are entering in 2025. And I'll be able to. And I'll be a lot. honest, I don't know what the next era is going to bring. So I really encourage anyone who's investing a little bit or thinking about investing to get started to take action today. That 10 to 15 years that you need to replace your income in a reliable, low risk way can

Starting point is 00:22:48 start right here, right now in 2025. And I do also just want to say that if you're thinking, yeah, I want to quit my job right now, you want to use real estate to be out of your W-2 in three to five years, I got some tough news for you. We got to get real about this. Financial independence in three to five years is going to be really hard. Sure, there are going to be some hustlers out there who can do it, but it is going to be rare. And I also need to tell you all, it has always been rare. Even during the Goldilocks era, there were some people that were able to pull this off. They were very vocal about it. But it was still not the most common. I told you, I did the math, and it still was about 12 years. on average for people to replace their income. So the upside era, it's going to unlock financial independence for tons of people. I feel very confident about that. For anyone who is willing and has appropriate long-term expectations, for people who are willing to adapt.

Starting point is 00:23:46 And right after the break, I'm going to share with you 10 principles on how you can adapt to the upside era and thrive in today's housing market. We'll be right back. The rise of the tech savvy investors here. You don't need a huge team or tons of overhead to manage rental properties. Just the right tools. So, I want to tell you about how I use rent-ready to get ahead. For landlords who treat their time-like capital and recognize the cost of sweat equity,

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Starting point is 00:28:08 Welcome back. Before the break, I was talking about how the upside error is really going to benefit investors who have appropriate expectations and who are willing to adapt. So now I'm going to share 10 core principles that should help set your expectations. of what it means to be a real estate investor in the upside era. I'll share what you have to commit in terms of time, effort, and money, and the incredible upside that you can expect from real estate investing if you put in the appropriate effort. Number one, and I've said this one a few times, but I'm going to say it again,

Starting point is 00:28:41 real estate investing is the best way to pursue financial independence. The combination of market stability, of cash flow, appreciation, amortization, leverage, tax advantages, makes real estate uniquely able to replace a traditional income within a relatively short period. Number two, real estate investing is a long-term game. Real estate is an asset class for patient, opportunistic investors who want to build wealth over a decade or more. The high transaction costs and potential for short-term market volatility make investing on a short-time horizon unnecessarily risky. A long-time horizon, on the other hand, makes it easier to find deals to manage a portfolio, and it reduces your overall risk. Number three, the average time frame for financial independence is 12 to 15 years.

Starting point is 00:29:34 Regardless of your starting income or age, the math is pretty much the same for almost everyone. Using average current market rates of return, the average American can entirely replace their income with real estate within 15 years. And given that the average American career is about, about 45 years, real estate can reduce the time to retire in it by about two-thirds. And if you want to get really into real estate and become a tactician, you can definitely speed it up from that 12 to 15-year average. Number four, you do not need to work full-time in real estate to succeed. To achieve financial independence through real estate, a steady income is highly recommended

Starting point is 00:30:12 as it provides funds for you to live off, it provides investment capital, and it limits risk. But that income that you need to be an investor can come. from real estate like being an agent or a flipper, but it can also come from other sources like having a traditional 1099 or W-2 job. You just need an income. It doesn't really matter where it comes from. Number five, real estate is not a truly passive form of income. There is definitely a spectrum of how time-intensive various investments are, but all real estate investments require some time commitment. Investors need to allocate the appropriate amount of time to build a portfolio and they should also target returns that reward them for their efforts.

Starting point is 00:30:55 To me, that means you need to be targeting deals that get you at least 2 to 3% above passive investments, like investing in index funds. Number six, complex, risky, and time-intensive strategies are not necessary. Sure, there are really good viable tactics out there that can help supercharge your portfolio, like off-market deal finding or seller financing. But those things take time and they require you to learn new skills. And you can absolutely do them if you want to supercharge your portfolio. But the thing I want to underscore here is that even if you're just doing the most vanilla type of real estate investing, buying long-term rental properties on the MLS, that can still

Starting point is 00:31:38 make you financially independent in 12 to 15 years and will still outperform other asset classes. Seven, real estate investing is a proven business model and path to entrepreneurship. that almost anyone can do. Real estate investing, it takes time and effort, but it is relatively simple. It is a proven business model. Real estate is a way for ordinary people to start a business and take control of their financial futures without having to invent anything new or manage a complicated business. Number eight, financial independence is a process, not an event.

Starting point is 00:32:12 Because really, for most people, the definition of retirement and independence will evolve over time. Like what you think you need to retire on and what that's going to look like for you today may look very different 20 years from now. So the goal, at least to me, is for every deal you do, for every financial decision that you make is to help you become more financially independent, to move you along the path to financial independence. And sometimes you're going to move along that path quickly. Other times you're going to slow down. But the goal should be to keep moving forward. Number nine, and we talked about this a little bit, but I want to remind you, do not compare to historical periods compare to current opportunities. Savvy investors understand that investing is an exercise in resource allocations.

Starting point is 00:33:01 Investors are always asking themselves, what is the best investment for me today? And they should avoid dwelling on how an asset's current performance compares to previous periods. You need to be thinking about what can I do with my time, and my money here in 2025 to move myself along my financial independence path, regardless of what happened five or 10 or 15 years ago. Last principle here is that Bigger Pockets is the best resource to help you responsibly pursue financial independence through real estate. There are a lot of real estate educators out there.

Starting point is 00:33:37 Some of them are good. Some of them have questionable motives, if I'm being honest. But Bigger Pockets is a little bit different. Bigger Pockets is a sophisticated organization that is built for the long run. I can sit here and be honest with you about how long it's going to take to Purdue financial independence because our business model at Bigger Pockets is built around helping investors succeed over the lifetime of their investing career. I feel comfortable telling you it's going to take 10 to 15 years because Bigger

Starting point is 00:34:07 Pockets has actually been around for 20 years already and it's going to be around 10, 15, 20 years from now helping you when you are. still building your portfolio and have achieved that level of financial independence, you're probably dreaming about here today. All right, that's it. That's what it's going to take. This, what I've shared with you today, is my vision for what it means to be a real estate investor in the upside era.

Starting point is 00:34:31 And I hope you are all as excited as I am. Of course, what I've shared with you today is my hypothesis, but we're going to refine it all together over time on this show and in the Bigger Pockets community. I hope you all join me and Henry and our many friends on the show as we usher in and celebrate the upside era and learn to adjust, adapt, and thrive in it together. The upside era starts today, everyone. I'll see you all on Wednesday. Thank you all for listening to the Bigger Pockets Real Estate podcast. Make sure you get all our new episodes by subscribing on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Our new episodes come out Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.

Starting point is 00:35:10 I'm the host and executive producer of the show, Dave Meyer. The show is produced by E&K, copywriting is by Calicoe Content, and editing is by Exodus Media. If you'd like to learn more about real estate investing or to sign up for our free newsletter, please visit www.com. The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only. All host and participant opinions are their own. Investment in any asset, real estate included, involves risk. So use your best judgment and consult with qualified advisors before investing.

Starting point is 00:35:35 You should only risk capital you can afford to lose. And remember, past performance is not indicative of future results. Bigger Pocket's LLC disclaims all liability for direct, indirect, consequential, or other damages arising from a reliance on information presented in this podcast.

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast - The State of Real Estate Investing: What You Need to Know for 2025

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