BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast - Were We Wrong About the Housing Market? (+ 2025 Predictions)

Episode Date: December 27, 2024

It’s what you’ve all been waiting for—our 2025 housing market predictions! We’re sharing where we think home prices, interest rates, and real estate will be over the next year. But we’re not just talking about 2025. We’re also going BACK and reviewing our 2024 housing market forecast, painfully detailing each part we got wrong and congratulating whoever got their predictions right. But how did top real estate companies like Zillow perform on their forecasts? Don’t worry; we’re rating their predictions as well! Last year, some of us thought home prices would decline year-over-year, while others were confident we’d still see rising prices. We also had surprisingly accurate mortgage rate predictions, so does that mean we could be right for 2025, too? Stick around to find out! Plus, we’re sharing where we think will become the country's best real estate investing markets and naming the cities we believe have the best potential for building wealth!  In This Episode We Cover: Updated 2025 housing market predictions and where home prices and mortgage rates could go How we (and Zillow!) did on our 2024 housing market forecast (plus what we got WRONG!) Real estate markets that have the most investment potential in 2025  Why we’re all becoming bullish on lower mortgage rates, EVEN with persistent inflation  Did we ever actually make it into recession territory in 2024?  And So Much More! Links from the Show Join BiggerPockets for FREE Let Us Know What You Thought of the Show! Ask Your Question on the BiggerPockets Forums BiggerPockets YouTube Check Out "On the Market" Grab James’ New Book “The House Flipping Framework” Find Investor-Friendly Lenders 2024 Housing Market Predictions: Home Prices, Interest Rates, & Opportunities Connect with Dave and Our Panel of Expert Guests: Dave Meyer Henry Washington James Dainard Kathy Fettke (00:00) Intro (04:10) Zillow's 2024 Predictions (13:05) Home Prices (16:06) Recession Risk (17:56) Mortgage Rates (18:56) Best Markets to Invest (21:36) 2025 Home Price Predictions (25:19) 2025 Mortgage Rate Predictions Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-1062 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [e-mail]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey, what's up everyone. It's Dave here, wishing you and your family a very happy holiday season from everyone here at Bigger Pockets. As we wrap up the year, we are resharing some of our favorite podcast episodes of 2024 on the feed. And today's show comes from our sister podcast, On the Market. I often refer to On the Market as a sister show to this podcast because it is very complimentary. We talk about all sorts of great real estate topics, tactics, strategies here. But on the market is where me, Henry Washington, James Dainard, and Kathy Fecky, basically just nerd out and talk about real estate news and economics. And if that sounds like fun to you, you can find On the Market on your podcast feed or on YouTube. Wherever you listen, make sure to hit that subscribe button. Today's episode that we're sharing with you is one that we published on the on the market feed about a month ago.

And what we did was we looked back at our real estate predictions for 2024 to check what came true to call out some of the mistakes we made. And we also made some new predictions for 2025. So if you want to hear what James, Kathy Henry and I think is going to happen with interest rates or want to hear a few of the markets we think are going to heat up, just keep listening. In this episode, we even got James to finally go on the record and make some real predictions for the coming year. As for this podcast, I will be back with new episodes in January, but for now, here's on the market. A year ago, we made some bold declarations about what would happen in the housing market in 2024. And today, we're going to talk about what we were wrong about, what we

were right about, what Zillow was wrong about and right about, and we'll talk about what we think we have in store for 2025. Hey, everyone, it's Dave, welcome to On the Market for our annual predictions show. If you are new to listening to On the Market, this is a fun one for you to join. I am joined here today by my three favorite panelists, Kathy Fecky, James Dainard, and Henry Washington. Thank you three for joining us today. I bet you say that to all your panelists. Well, it's fair to say that you're my favorite because you're the only three panelists, so you are all my favorite.

How are you guys feeling? Kathy, do you even remember what you predicted last year? Sure. No, I really don't. Well, lucky for you, we have a producer who went back. dug up everything we predicted so we compare it. And spoiler, James was wrong about everything. But the rest of us did pretty well. Or was I? You know what he's good at, though. He's good at predicting expenses and sales prices. And he mails it a lot. And return on investment. Yeah.

Yeah. When you think the market's going down, your underwriting looks a lot better. Well, I think something I didn't predict. I don't know about all of you didn't predict. But I just realized that as of today, all four of us released books this year because James's book came out today, the house flipping framework. James, congratulations on writing a book, man. Thank you. You know what? I got to say, I never thought, and my wife says this to me all the time, she's like, how are you an author? That's how I feel.

I feel like you kicked and screamed a lot through this one, but you did it. I think you asked me to write it for you like four or five different times. I've never flipped a house. You're like, just write it. Just write the book. But seriously, man, congrats. That's awesome. And like Henry said, I think we should do some predictions on how many sales you'll have. I think it's going to be triple mine, at least. Yeah. I need to figure out what mine were for this year and then I'll triple it. Yeah. Well, with that, let's move into our show today where we're going to talk about our predictions for next year. And I thought it would be fun before I put you all in the hot seat to actually make your own predictions.

We'll warm up a little bit and just start with reviewing Zillow's 2024 predictions. So here we go. Zillow's first prediction for 2024 was home buying costs will level off. I mean, did you guys notice that? I'm pretty sure they got more expensive. Yeah, I love that we're picking on Zillow first. This is great. They were wrong.

Just flat wrong there. Yeah. So, I mean, affordability, which is the measurement of home buying cost, actually got way worse in the first half of the year when mortgage rates went up to about 8 percent. And home prices continued to go up. And then just briefly, in September, it did get a little bit better. But mortgage rates have since shot back up. We're recording this in the middle of November.

And so I would say Zill is wrong about this one. Did you guys think that home prices were going to? to get cooler this year? Yeah, I did. But did you think it was going to be cooler because of price declines, James, or mortgage rate declines? I thought everything was going to decline down just because, you know, the affordability and the cost of life has gotten so expensive.

It just, you know, every piece of logic pointed to the housing was going to start declining a little bit. At least that's what I felt. You know, rates were almost at all-time highs. Pricing was at all-time highs. And job wages had not gone. up. And especially like in a lot of more expensive markets, like the tech market, everything, people aren't getting paid more. And, you know, naturally, people are making less and things

cost more. I thought price was going to come down. So this was a little bit of a shocking year for me. I can see where you went wrong because I heard you say logic and reason was what you were using to make your decision. And that's probably not going to work in this economy. Are you just doing the opposite thing? Henry, you're going to think about the logical thing that could happen and then just predict the opposite. Yeah. What's the dumbest thing in the world? and go, yeah, that's probably what's going to happen. Honestly, you might be right. It's like when those octopi, like, pick the World Cup winners or whatever.

Oh, yeah. When the dog picks the NCAA champion, it's kind of like that, yeah. Yeah, exactly. All right, so I think Zillow was off on that one. Their second prediction was more homes will be listed for sale. Kathy, I'm quizzing you. Do you know if that was right or wrong? That was, that was right.

We had increased inventory by, I forget how much, but 20, 30%, maybe 36%, so yeah, they got that right. Yes, they did. As of right now, according to Redfinn, at least, the new listings are up a couple of percentage points, but inventory, as Kathy was said, is even higher, which is a measurement of how many homes are for sale at any given point. So Zillow will give you credit for that one. The third thing that they predicted was the new starter home will be a single family rental.

even know what that means. I don't know what that means. I think that means that you can't buy a house. You have to rent it, perhaps. Or they're saying that if you can't afford your house where you live, you'll buy a rental somewhere else. I don't know, but either way. Either way, it's wrong. Well, I did see something the other day that the average home buyer age has gone up seven years this year. Like it used to be, I think, around 30 and now it's 37. So that might be an indication that people are continuing to rent rather than buying a starter home, if that's what Zillow even meant by this one? Well, there's just the difference between renting a home and owning it was so, so dramatic. That honestly, it didn't make sense for a lot of people to buy when they could rent the same house for, you know, half.

I don't know exactly how much, but for much less. And a lot of people who bought during the pandemic were really hit hard this past year with increases in insurance and taxes. and that really helped kill the affordability. That's definitely true. I mean, just to give an example, I'm helping my sister who has had a lot of health issues and she's renting a house that would be a $2 million house probably in the San Francisco Bay Area and the rent is $5,000. I know this sounds like a lot, but for the Bay Area, it's really not.

But think about what the mortgage would be on that. It would be like $15,000 easily. Make no sense to buy it. So, yeah. Isn't a $2 million house in the San Francisco Bay Area parking spot? It is a very old, very dilapid at home. All right. So for Zillow's fourth prediction was expect stiff competition for rentals near downtown.

I'm just going to go ahead and say this is wrong because I don't know for sure. I don't have this data. But downtowns have grown slower in rent and home prices than suburban areas. So if I had to guess where we are seeing slower rent growth, it's probably in downtowns. That's where all the multifamily supply is online, too. So I'm going to, without data, say that this one's wrong, unless one of you disagrees. That's exactly what I'm seeing in our market. A lot of the newer product that's coming to market, they perform at very high rents.

And those are the ones we've seen not be competitive, and they're giving away a lot of rent concessions, just to get them filled. It's like the B stuff, the renovated stuff's moving a lot faster because it's just a little bit more affordable. In my market, this is true. Absolutely. Okay. Well, given that I just made. up whether this was true or not. I appreciate you providing some anecdotal evidence to what you're saying here. All right. So Dill has made a bunch more predictions, but I'm just going to do one more. Henry and James,

I'm particularly curious in your opinion on this one. Fixer Upper Homes will become more attractive to traditional buyers, so not investors. James, have you seen that or you're shaking your head? No. No. The problem with a fixture upper home for an end user or someone, moving into it is you still got to put down a hefty down payment. Your rate is still really high right now. So your monthly payment is way higher than you want to afford. And then you have to pay your rent while you're renovating that house a lot of times. And then cost of construction so high is just too many costs. So we've seen the opposite. We've gotten much better buys on the bigger fixers. I'm like substantially better buys. Well, also, yeah, depending on how much needs to be fixed,

you might not even be able to finance it. Yeah. And just to control, control those costs, you know. It's like flippers and value-ad investors can do the renovation a lot time for 50% less than a homeowner. And so it doesn't make it more competitive. It just makes it harder for them to do. And honestly, it's like everything's so affordable. People want to deal with the headache. They're like, no, the payment's already my headache. I think people realize it takes too much cash to be able to do this. And if they have that much cash on hand, then they'll just buy something that has already fixed up. I mean, if they follow bigger pockets and they know how to do it, then, yeah, there's a lot of obviously bigger pockets followers who have taken advantage of the

opportunity for special financing. But traditional financing, it's going to be really hard. If only they read the House flipping framework by Mr. James Dainer, they would be able to do this and build equity in their primary residence. Come on. You know what? I mean, no more excuses. The blueprint's there. All right. So for out of those five, I'm giving Zillow about a 50-50 success rate. we did write down three other things that they predicted, but I don't even know how to evaluate them. They were six is more home improvements will be done by homeowners. That's probably true. I'm guessing that's probably true, but I don't really know how to measure that.

Yeah, that seems true because they're stank put. Yeah. Seven is home buyers will seek out nostalgic touches and sensory pleasures. I don't even, I don't even know why that's on there. Is this like home ASMR? Like what? Yeah, I just, it's a weird thing for Zillot right. I don't like it.

And then last one is artificial intelligence will enhance home search and financing. I'm just going to give this one to Henry because I know how much Henry loves virtual staging. So, Henry, what do you think of this one? I think virtual staging is the worst thing in the history of reality. But I don't know, man. I don't think it's that big of an influence. And definitely not in financing. But in home search, no, I don't even see that.

No. I'm all in on AI, but like, what do you, Zillow makes it easy enough. You just click around. What do you need AI for? Is virtual staging worse than the homeowner that's just guessing on staging, though? Yes. Yes, it is. I don't know.

Don't set me up to think this place is amazing. And then I walk in and it smells dingy and there's nothing in there. It's the worst. It's the worst. All right. So we've now graded Zillow's predictions, but how did we do? We'll take a freak look back at the calls we made. in 2024 and find out who got away with not making any predictions at all right after the break.

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Let's see how we all did. Last year, around this time, we made predictions on home prices, interest rates, and just some questions about what the best markets were going to be and the best opportunities for investors. And fun fact, last year when we did this, was the day your granddaughter Mia was born, Kathy, congratulations. Was that a full year ago? Has she turned one yet?

She just turned one, November 8th. And, you know, when she was smashing the cake in her face, she kind of let me know that she'd like me to buy her house now so that she can have something when she's 30. And are you going to oblige her? No. Maybe. Maybe. Okay.

Fair enough. All right. Well, let's review home prices last year. Each of us gave a prediction, and I am looking them up. Last year, Kathy, you said prices would be up 4% year over year. Henry, you gave a range, very political, three to four percent. So right on the heels of Kathy. James, you said two percent.

percent decline, but when our producer Jennifer looked it up, you said flat, maybe two percent decline. So I'm going to give you that range there. And I said one to two percent year over year. So Kathy, congratulations. You were exactly right. I looked this up on Redfin, which is what I use a lot of the data for on the show. And it is as of the last month we have data for. So this is back in September. It was 4 percent year over year. So Kathy, you nailed this. one. I can't believe that. You know, the crystal ball is working. Rich bought me one last year and I don't know. Maybe I'm learning how to use it finally. Congrats. And Henry, if you just, you know, if you had some conviction, man and just, you know, said one or the other, you would have been right, but you gave a range.

You were technically also right, but a little less right than Kathy. I'll take it. Well, congratulations. So just for everyone's education, we have seen home prices start to decline. The growth rate, excuse me. Prices aren't declining. But earlier in the year, they were up six, five and a half percent. They're starting to slow down to about four percent. My expectation is they'll slow down a little bit more, but we'll see in our predictions before. James, you were the only one who predicted a decline. And as you said, you were a little bit off on that one. Better look next year, man. You know, I have no problem with my prediction because it made me very conservative with my underwriting. And part of it, I'm conservative because I'm a

flipper, so it's a little higher risk. But the benefit is I thought it could be a 2% decline, and Seattle was up 8%. So we saw 10% over our underwriting. So there you go. It was a good year. It was a great year. That's a good year for you. Okay. So the second thing we predicted was recessions, whether we would technically be in a recession or not. Kathy, you said end of Q2. or Q3, we'd be in a recession. Henry, you said, we'll technically be in a recession, but no one will act like it.

James, my notes here from Jennifer says, recession, James didn't really answer, but he's worried about credit card debt. We're just going to count you wrong on that one. And I think I got this one right. I said, we'll see GDP slow down, but we won't be in a recession. And according to all the data, that's what we've got.

We've seen GDP grow this year. It's estimated at 2.5% as of November 7th. So no official recession. And by most accounts, people believe that we are heading towards that soft landing that the Fed was predicting. Kathy, you nailed the first one. You're a little off on this one. Any reflections on what you missed here? Yeah, I think I was 50%.

right because I would say 50% of the country really feels like they're in a recession. And 50% they're buying second and third homes. So it is the tale of two worlds in this country. And I don't think that's going to change anytime soon. But if you went around and asked people, I swear to you, 50% would say we are absolutely in a recession. So maybe Henry was right. Well, he said technically in a recession, no one will act like it.

But I think the answer, what Kathy's saying is not technically in recession, but people will act like it. Sort of the inverse, what you were saying there, Henry. But I do think we still see people spending despite what Kathy's sending to. So some of that sentiment is correct. All right. So moving on to our third prediction, which was about interest rates and where mortgage rates would be right now. Kathy, you said six and a half percent. Henry, you said 6.75 percent. James, you said 7 percent. And I said 7.1 percent. James, you're finally getting on the board, man. I think you and I here split this one.

When I looked it up this morning, it was 7.05, so it was right between the two of us. But both of us being the most bearish on this one, thinking mortgage rates wouldn't come down. And I think unfortunately for everyone listening to us, we were more correct about that. Yeah, but if we did the show three weeks ago, guys. But if we did it eight months ago, we'd be totally wrong. Yes, they did come down briefly in September, but unfortunately, mortgage rates have not come down as much as people thought. And I'm looking forward to the conversation about where we think mortgage rates are going. First, let's just wrap up our last prediction right now, which we made was which markets were going to be the most popular or the best places to invest.

Kathy, you said the southeast. Henry, big surprise. You said Northwest Arkansas. But then you also said bigger cities that are unsexy like Cleveland and Indianapolis. James, you said affordable single family homes. We got to hold James feet to the fire this year. He did answer any questions. Affordable single family homes did do well.

That's true. And, you know, unsurprisingly, I said markets in the Midwest. So I think Midwest did great. I was pretty happy with that. Kathy, how would you review your prediction about the Southeast? Well, with the data I do not have in front of me, I would say that it did pretty well. Actually, we could talk about this in a little bit, but I was writing my, I do this state of real estate investing report for the bigger pockets every year, and I was writing it today.

And I think that the differentiation now has become like Gulf states and other parts of the southeast because like Louisiana, Alabama, parts of Florida that are on the Gulf are not doing particularly great. but the rest of the southeast, the Carolinas, Tennessee, you know, a lot of Georgia, as Henry would tell you in Arkansas, like are still doing well. So I think calling at the southeast is no longer as accurate, but there's definitely parts that have done extremely well. All right. Well, I think overall, other than James, who didn't say anything, we did pretty well last year. And so congratulations. This was a, I mean, we started the show and started making predictions about the housing

market during probably the three toughest years to make predictions about the housing market. And I think this is the best we've ever done. It's definitely the best we've ever done. Yeah, I just want to say, though, that even though James maybe didn't nail this, he probably made the most money last year. Oh, for sure. That's not even a question. It was a good year.

It was a good year. Yeah. Yes. Okay. James is, I mean, James has a house on the market in Newport Beach that's like, his profit's going to be more than my net worth on that one house. Yeah, hopefully you get some lift there too because that thing is on market ready to go. It's a different beast list in that expensive of a house.

I'll tell you that much. Do all your sales of favor and go look on James' Instagram and check out the house. He's flipping in Newport Beach, California. It's like the most beautiful house I've seen. It's really cool. All right, time for one last quick break. But when we come back, we're all back in the prediction hot seat. Stick with us.

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misses out on the action, the footsteps, the late night fridge raids. Yeah, when you're gone, your place is basically on unpaid leave. It's sitting there in the dark thinking, I could be contributing right now. Your side room wants a side hustle. Even your Wi-Fi is like, we could be networking. You're on vacation, spending money like it's a sport while your staircase at home. is fully capable of sending your income upwards. Here's the twist. You can go on a trip and actually earn money. Airbnb makes that possible with the co-host network.

If you're away for a while or have a secondary property, you can hire a vetted local co-host with real hosting experience to handle it all. A co-host can handle guest communications. It can manage reservations and keep things running smoothly so you don't have to check your phone between beach days. That means less stress and more time enjoying. your trip. You can relax, knowing guests are taken care of, and your place is in good hands. You travel, your house works. Everyone wins. If you're ready to host but could use some help,

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at Indeed.com slash rookie. Just go to Indeed.com slash rookie right now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast. That's Indeed.com. slash rookie. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring, indeed, is all you need. Welcome back to the show. All right. Well, enough, enough reminiscing about our good and bad predictions from last year. Let's talk about what we think is going to happen in the next year. Before I ask for reasons, I just want a quick housing prices up or down next year. Henry, your first.

Up. James. Up. Kathy? Up. I'm with you. Up. Okay.

Kathy already, you're sticking with 4%, which is funny because I think the first time we ever did this, Kathy, you just said 7% for everything. You're doing right.

I'd like 2 out of 3 of them. Four's my new number. All right. So Kathy's saying 4%. Henry or James, let's just start with you, Henry. Do you have any more specific predictions

about what you think we'll see home prices do on a national basis this coming year? Yeah. I think I'll go a little below, Kathy, and say 3%. Okay. James? 2.5.

All right, a little bit slower. I'm going to split the difference and do 3.5%. So we're all tightly clustered here. But just calling out that most of us think that home price appreciation will probably be roughly in the range of inflation next year, like not growing much more than that. So just something to call out. But I also want to call out that this is normal. Like somewhere between 2 and 4% is normal.

So it's interesting that all of us are thinking that we'll have a relatively normal housing market next year. I don't know if we've ever really predicted that before. I wouldn't say normal, but it's just if you just look at supply and demand still, it's an issue. Even though inventory has risen quite a lot, it's still way below where it has been at a time when you have, again, the huge population of millennials. So even though most people can't afford to buy a home, you don't need that many who can. You know, if four to five million homes are trading hands every year and you have how many millennials? What is it? 78 million.

I don't know. It's a lot. A lot of us. You know, so you don't need that many people who can do it. And that's why I just keep predicting in this scenario, there's only one way it can go. Even if there's deregulation, even if there's stimulus to that. housing market. You just can't build that much supply in one year, you know. Yeah, I think that the normal part is the appreciation level, but my guess, and we're not going to predict this today, is that

home sales volume is going to remain relatively slow. And just for everyone's reference and context, a normal year in the housing market over the last 25 years has been about 5.5 million sales. This year, we're on pace for less than 4 million. So it's super slow, even though we're seeing prices go up, it's very, very slow. And it feels even slower because during the pandemic, it actually went up to over six million. So it's less than 50% of where we were at the peak in 2021. And so that's, if you're feeling like the market is really sluggish, you're right. It has really dramatically changed in terms of the total sales volume. And personally, I think it will get a little bit better this coming year, but I don't think we're getting back necessarily to a

normal year in terms of sales volume where we have five and a half million. Hopefully we'll have four and a half or five million would be an amazing comeback. And hopefully we'll get closer to that because, you know, it's one thing for investors. But obviously, there are a lot of people who listen to the show who are real estate agents or loan officers. And, you know, a lot of the American economy relies on real estate transactions. And so hopefully we'll see that start to take off again this coming year. All right. Now for the worst part of this show where we all predict more. mortgage rates. And I spent a lot of time looking at bond yield forecast this morning. So watch out. That means I'll probably be the most wrong because I spent the most time thinking about it.

James, I'm going to put you on the hotspot first here. What do you think the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will be one year from now, the middle of November 2025? You know, I'm predicting we're going to be at 5.95. Whoa. Wow. That's so close to what I was going to predict. It is like locked into my brain. It's been there for months.

I don't know why. I just think we're going to be high fives going into next year. Amazing. I will give you a high five before we're in the high fives next year. I will be very excited. Well, how can you say that if you didn't think home values are going to increase by more than 4%? Well, I think part of the reason is we're going to see some issues going on in the economy otherwise.

And that's why rates are going to be coming down. You know, I feel like we've been kind of on the slow skit. We'll see what happens. But, you know, I think there could be a jolt. and then there could be some, you know, a little decline on the backside. Okay. All right. I like it.

Kathy, what's your prediction? Well, to James point, there are astrologers saying that there is going to be a crash. But that those are YouTube experts, right? No. I'm going to say six and a half percent because I actually think it's going to be a pretty robust economy. Okay. All right. Staying pretty high.

Henry, what do you got? Six and a quarter. Damn it. Henry, stop it. That was what I was going to say. All right. I'm going to say 6.1.2. Okay. Precisely 6.1.2 is exactly what it's going to be.

I'm so shocked, Dave. I thought for sure you'd think there'd be inflation this coming year. So I do think there are some risks of inflation coming, but I think it might take a little while for that to reignite again, is my guess. First and foremost, the reason I think a lot of people are thinking there might be inflation in the coming year. is if there are tariffs implemented. My guess is that if that happens at all, it will not be this across-the-board tariff

like we've been talking about. And it will probably take a while for them to actually get implemented. There's some historical precedent. Like when Trump said he was going to implement tariffs on China in his first campaign, he did it, but it was until 2018. It took two years of like negotiating and figuring out the plan.

And so maybe you'll move faster this time. I don't know, but I think it might take a little while. And I think this spread between bond yields and mortgage rates will compress a little bit. And so I still think we're not going to be into the fives, but I think they'll come down a little bit, not in the beginning of next year, but by the end of next year, my hope is we'll be in the low sixes. All right. Now, for our next prediction, what else do we have to predict here? Okay, markets. What markets do you like for 20205?

Kathy, you've always got some good ideas here. What do you got? Well, it comes from Price Waterhouse Cooper and the Urban Land Institute, who has named No Shocker, Guys, Dallas Fort Worth, in the top 10 list for six years, but it just dethroned Phoenix and Nashville and moved to the top for 2025.

Okay. I'm sticking with my, you know, Dallas, Fort Worth, and then not shocking either. Tampa, St. Petersburg is also on that list. So those have been our markets, continue to be our market. Sticking with it. Nothing fancy. I like it. James, do you just, you got anything other than Seattle? I love Seattle, and now I'm going to start ripping up Arizona, so I like that market, too. Nice. Even though people may think it's bubbly, there's always opportunity in every bubble. I mean, that's the thing. There's always an opportunity in every market. But if I was going to look at buying rentals outside the state or just buying elsewhere, you know, I really do like affordable.

Like anything that is a more affordable quality place to live, you know, like places like Huntsville, Alabama, Little Rock, Arkansas on the top of the list. So, you know, I'm going to chase more the metrics of medium income versus affordability. I just think that those have the best runway because everything's still going to be really expensive in 2025 and people want that relief. Well, maybe you can join. I got to talk to my business partner, Henry, about our investments in the Lake Effect cash flow region. That's right. Three studs under a window doesn't have the same ring to it. But if you want to start buying some affordable stuff, James, you know who to call. More studs than merrier, right? You know, Dave, we can do this. It could be a swap. You know, we're doing some flip stuff together. I'll give you some money for passive markets. I'll give it to you. Let's do it. And we'll do a cash swap. Yeah, so James can be our lender for our Lake Effect Cashflow House.

You have to come. Half the fun is we just want to go on a road trip through the Midwest and hang out. Are we getting a huge RV? Yeah, if you're coming, yes, obviously. Yeah, I'm in for that. Kathy, you in? Yeah, I feel like it's two studs and the money, you know. Right, right.

This will be great. All right, road trip this summer. Okay, Henry, I know, well, I kind of gave away your plan. Maybe you're going to say something else. What markets do you like this coming year? Well, I do like the Lake Effect cash flow area for cash flow. But for the guys of this question, the markets that I think will do the best are going to be major metros. It's kind of those tertiary major metrosos. So not the Dallas-Fort Worth or the, you know, Seattle. We're talking places like

Cleveland, Ohio, Birmingham, Alabama, Kansas City, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Indianapolis, Indiana. So these places are all kind of that Midwest tertiary big city where you get affordability, but you also get appreciation. Okay, I like it. Well, I'm going to make a couple of specific things. I do really think the Southeast is going to keep rocking. I really like the Carolinas personally. I think if you look at North and South Carolina,

there's a lot of good stuff going on there. In the Midwest, I think Madison, Wisconsin is a really interesting market. And I've always avoided this place, but Detroit is starting to grow. Detroit's on my list, too. And Detroit is, you know, I don't know if I, I'd invest there myself because you have to know what you're doing in a city like that, but there is a lot of growth there. And then my bold prediction, this is not, you know, fueled by data.

This is just a gut instinct. I think suburbs outside major metros that have declined in the last few years are going to grow. So I think outside New York City, I think outside San Francisco, I think outside, probably in your area, James, not that they've declined, but I think suburbs of major economic hubs are going to grow. people are, a lot of people are getting called back to the office. I think we're going to start to see those downtown areas pick up again and the wealthy areas that surround them are probably going to grow. I'm not investing there. I don't know if those are like some more like kind of flipping opportunities, which I don't do. But if you're a flipper, I would look at those places. Yeah, I mean, you make a great

point. A lot changed with the election and even here in L.A. where we were just kind of allowing people to rob and get away with it. We passed something that says you, It's actually a felony to Rob. So I feel like in some of these areas where people have left, they might be coming back. Yeah. Some of these cities are pushing back on crime. Quality living is going to go up in them. Yeah.

Because it was just out of control. But Dave, every time I pick of Detroit, if you're looking at it, I remember in 2008, I almost bought my brother a house for Christmas. You can buy them for a dollar. Dude, they were like 200 bucks. You could get a house in Detroit. It was like, and I'm still mad. I didn't go buy a swath of them.

You can get it from the land bike first. No, you could get them for free. Yeah, you still can. Like, they're paying in certain areas to knock them down. So they'll give them to you for free. But that's why I mean you really need to know what you're doing. Because there are certain areas that are really exciting in Detroit. If you read about it, like there's some really cool investment.

There's businesses going in there. There's jobs going in there. And if you're in the right area, it could be profitable. But there are also some areas that have really been hit hard economically. And I don't know enough about it personally to know which ones which. Oh, we were really active in Detroit with our single family rental fund we bought in the Southeast, but then also offset for cash flow in Detroit. And I think I told you guys those homes were so old. There were so much maintenance, even though they were in good areas. At the end of the day, when we sold all the properties, our properties in the Southeast had about a 28% IRA, whereas the Detroit had about 6 to 8% because all the expenses just ate up the profits. But, you know, again, if you go into it, knowing that and get the right price, then it's not for James. I mean, better than nothing, but yeah, 6% IRA is not why you're in the business.

It's not worth the effort for that, for sure. All right. Well, we're all on record. Anyone else want to make just a fun prediction? It got anything else, 2025, anything you're looking forward to, real estate, not real estate? I mean, I've just seen, again, I'm not giving an opinion on this, just what I've seen from people I've talked to. A lot of money was made in the last couple of days.

Like I talked to someone who said, I just made $60,000 last week. So where does that money tend to go? And it does often go to real estate. So I do believe that there will be an uptick in purchases. Bitcoin's at an all-time high. I think there's going to be several Bitcoin million and billionaires. Yeah. It went up to like 90,000.

Yeah. So glad I own one fraction of one Bitcoin. Me too. I'm so glad I shut down my Bitcoin farm in 2018. What a moment. that was a miss of all miss. We had a meat locker stack full of machines. We're actually one of the only people to put a Bitcoin farm up for sale.

Should have kept that one. Well, one thing I, maybe it's not a prediction. It's more of an inquiry about 2025 is we have talked about actually doing some live events for on the market. And I would love to know if all of our listeners would be interested in that. And if you're interested in it, what would you want it to look like? Is it a meet and greet hanging out? Do you want us to do economic conversation, local market data?

Hit any of us up on Instagram or on Bigger Pockets and let us know what you would want to see if we did some sort of live events in 2025. In addition to that, go by James's book right now. Go to BiggerPockets.com slash house flipping y-T. That's house flipping. And then the letters Y and T like YouTube, even though you might be listening to this on the podcast. It's House Flipping YT. Go buy his book right now.

It's going to be amazing. Thank you three so much for joining us and for being so brave to make these bold predictions as you have. Thanks yet for listening. We'll see you next time for On the Market. Thank you all for listening to the Bigger Pockets Real Estate podcast. Make sure you get all our new episodes by subscribing on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.

Our new episodes come out Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. I'm the host and executive producer of the show, Dave Meyer. The show is producer. by E&K, copywriting is by Calicoe Content, and editing is by Exodus Media. If you'd like to learn more about real estate investing or to sign up for our free newsletter, please visit www.com. The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only. All host and participant opinions are their own.

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