Bill Meyer Show Podcast - Sponsored by Clouser Drilling www.ClouserDrilling.com - 04-15-25_TUESDAY_7AM

Episode Date: April 15, 2025

04-15-25_TUESDAY_7AM

The Bill Meyer Show podcast is sponsored by Clauser Drilling. They've been leading the way in Southern Oregon well drilling for over 50 years. Find out more about them at clauserdrilling.com. Here's Bill Meyer. David Bonson joins me. He's the founder of the Bonson Group, B-A-H-N-S-E-N Group, just so you know about that. And Bonson Group, pretty impressive, $7 billion national wealth management firm. I think the, you have gold toilets like the president's apartment, David. Welcome back to the show. Good morning. Yeah, no, we have a little bit better taste than the Saddam Hussein looking castle, but

you never know. Okay. Hey, good to know that. But you're consistently ranked among a top financial or as a top financial advisor. And boy, there's a lot to be advising when it comes to the finances. I ended up signing up a few weeks ago when we last talked to the Dividend Cafe.

I really recommend this. It's a great daily read, kind of a recap of what happened and where we are headed. And what is your overall impression after what happened on April 2nd of course that was Liberation Day and then the things went to hell for two three days and you know and now I don't know if we're if it's a kind of a flop and chop feel right now a little up a little down I mean how would you

evaluate where we are right now since the announcement and then the pausing of some of the terrorists were a tariff regime well I mean there's no question that we are in a pause because the president's pause that the the way that they announced things on April 2nd there was a sort of bottomless feel to the market. It was four straight days, but with the violence that sometimes would take a couple years. I mean, the market dropped basically into bear market territory.

The S&P from its high was down over 20%. The NASDAQ was getting down close to 30%. And then on that fit, what would have been the fifth market day, we had been down 1,000 points in the overnight action on top of what had already been close to 5,000 points in the prior four days. We were down 700 in the middle of the day

when the president decided, no, he wasn't gonna go forward with all the tariffs on 70 plus other countries, and the market ended uped up twenty seven hundred point so a thirty four hundred point reversal S. and P. up almost ten percent of the day. Now that's up twelve percent of the day. So you you really are seeing the extremes all over the place that we you know we were down two thousand points the next day closed down a thousand we were up six hundred and

fifty Friday. So you're seeing really extreme volatility and it's up and down but the up and down points the next day closed down a thousand we were up six hundred and fifty Friday. So you're seeing really extreme volatility and it's up and down but the up and down volatility is because there's a real up and down uncertainty about what the trade policy is and so.

Regardless of how one feels about tariffs I myself am extremely critical of the policy. But even apart from the policy itself what's going on here has been about the execution of the policy. And just a lack of clarity for the economy itself, what's going on here has been about the execution of the policy and just a lack of clarity for the economy as to what it is they're trying to accomplish.

Especially when you're looking to keep capital flows coming into the United States. I guess what you're talking about then has been the lack of certainty. That's one of the things which is great about the United States. Of course, you got a rule of law, good court system, etc., etc., protection of intellectual property rights and such. But if you don't know from day to day whether your business might necessarily be next on the chopping block, that's an uncomfortable place to be. Is that kind of where you're coming from on this? Yeah, very much. And this is where it's really important to not only be associating that

way of thinking with the stock market, but with all of our business, with our whole entire economy. I mean, you know, I have now personally taken over 120 phone calls from business owners, some of which do over a hundred million a year in sales, some of which do, you know, seven hundred thousand a year in sales, three employees, do, you know, 700,000 a year in sales, three employees, you know, a thousand employees. I mean, it's a big range, but it's still not big public companies. They're small businesses that are to a company saying the exact same thing you just said. We don't know what to do. We don't know what to hire, what to not hire, what to order, what to invest in. What to hire what to not hire what to order what to invest in. And so you see just a really big downward kick in productivity and that's my concern

is even at this point if the president does fully go back on a lot of these things he's unleashed which is obviously begun to do then they may be still a little too late that there's a certain contraction of economic activity that's baked in the cake for the second quarter. So there's a lot we're watching day by day right now. Is that, you know, some have been saying that this has been an actually an intentional detonation in order to make room for the for the future clearing of the decks in a more domestic reduced or domestic focused economy.

Would you agree on this being an intentional detonation or was the detonation kind of unintentional because of the back and forthness of the of the tariffing policy? Well, I try not to get overly political on it because I'm a conservative Republican who supports a lot of the president's policies and certain policies I don't and I always have felt liberated myself to just share my opinion and I don't get my income from politics and and I candidly feel that it's important more people call balls and strikes. The idea that this was on purpose is one of the most absurd things I've ever heard in my life. And I get why people are saying it as a sort

of retroactive art of the deal compliment, but I know with 1000% certainty it isn't true. I'm talking to people inside the Treasury Department every day. The United States trade representative was on the floor of Congress and got a text from the White House 30 seconds before that everything he was about to say had been reversed. The president went out and said he changed his mind because people were getting queasy. And he used another word that was kind of funny. I can't remember. Topsy or toppy or, you know,

again, just some sort of an adjective referring to the kind of precarious nature of what had happened. No, JD Vance, Vice President of the United States, said that right now the president is making decisions day by day on his gut. And I believe in the vice president about that. So some people could say it's a good thing. He's been a good negotiator. He rules well by his gut. That's Some people could say it's a good thing. He's been a good negotiator.

He rules well by his gut. That's fine if people believe it's a good thing, but to try to ascribe to it some sort of eight dimension chess, I think starts to stretch the bounds of reality a little bit. I could see, David, I've been a fan of tariffs only this way because essentially tariffs are a tax on the import, you know, and people can say, hey, you know, China is going to pay it or Russia is going to pay it or some other company. No, ultimately whoever is going to pay for the product

pays for it, that's just reality. And I get tired of the economic nonsense that gets us surrounding from tariffs. But I can see though, the use for tariffs, for carefully done tariffs, for some of the highest value, most, shall we say, critical infrastructure type of industries. Do you agree on that? Well, is that a national security argument when you say critical infrastructure? Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. So my question is why do a tariff? If we want control of our supply chain for matters of critical infrastructure, is it

a matter of just charging more for the import or is it a matter of actually having our own domestic capacity? When people say, oh, there's the human rights thing, we shouldn't use slave labor, so we're going to put a tariff on it. Well, does that mean slave labor becomes okay once there's a certain cost? So to me, I don't think it's really about tariff. I get what the argument is. It's a way to try to diminish it.

But I would suggest that I have a more radical view than the president does here. Let's immediately take control of anything that is credibly related to national security. Let's quit pretending that t-shirts and coffee are critical to national security. Let's quit pretending that the nip and steal deal has anything to do with national security. But for stuff that does have to do with national security, let's take full control of that domestically and then for everything else else seek less impediments to trade. That to me has less to do with tariffs and more to do with the U.S. securing its own interests.

Okay. Now I can side with you on that, David. David Bonson once again from the Bonson Group. One thing I was thinking about, and when you were talking about the clothing issue there, something that really bothered me about going after the way that the administration said, we're going to tariff Vietnam because they sell lots more stuff to us than we sell to them. Well, Vietnam is still a relatively poor country and so they would send us inexpensive clothing made there and cheap furniture that Wayfair would sell, you know that that that kind of company and

and so the fact that they're not importing a lot of Boeing planes as an example is It's kind of like like swatting flies in some ways It just didn't make sense to me Am I am I wrong to to look at that because I saw the Boeing planes as being the valuable part of our economy, maybe making socks and underwear not so much these days. Maybe I'm wrong. Well, there's also, by the way, a whole lot of things that they're not just a smaller

part of the economy. We have no ability to make it. We can't do mangoes and bananas and coffee in America, not at the level of consumption that we have. I mean, we can make coffee in parts of Hawaii. You still have to put it on a boat or a plane to get it across to the mainland. And so that's what the law of comparative advantage in Adam Smith's 1776 masterpiece, The Wealth of Nations, is about, that two countries can grow their economy at once. By

trading with one another because some countries have advantages others don't. You may have noticed the Canada has a lot more timber than America that's why we rely on lumber imports. And so to punish a country. Because they

have an advantage in the end making things that we desperately need is pretty ridiculous, but it's the second most ridiculous thing. The other argument is that they sell us more stuff than we sell them because we're a richer country than them. The GDP of Vietnam has absolutely no ability to buy from America what we buy from them. Why

is that a bad thing? We give them money, they give us good. Yeah, but and you see, and by the way, we give them money that we create out of thin air in many cases being the reserve currency. Now, I think we have probably gone to extremes in that, you would likely agree with us on that. And so isn't it true that if you have the reserve currency, David, you're going to run some trade deficits. There's no way you can balance that, otherwise you freeze up the entire world the need for dollars because it's the reserve currency.

Of course that's true. And we can run a trade surplus if we want like we did during the global financial crisis and the Great Depression. Okay other than that we're not going to run a trade surplus and there's absolutely no reason to. Every single one of us runs trade deficits in our lives with the

bass bass majority of people we buy things from. And this is examples of many more people are starting to catch on to that we just simply don't ever look at it is unfair that many more people are starting to catch on to that we just simply don't ever look at it as unfair that our barber doesn't buy anything from us. That we get our hair cut, we pay them money, and that's the end of the transaction. But here's the thing, we already know this is true, even apart from ridiculous individual

examples to make my point, we know it's true with an American economy because we run a massive trade surplus with services. So am I to believe that we are getting ripped off by the rest of the world because we buy more goods from them at the same time that we're ripping off the rest of the world because we sell more services to them? Or does that rather speak to the unique realities of various economic strengths and needs and opportunities and whatnot? Look, I get that everybody wants to protect American workers to see a robust opportunity society. I promise you that's what I want.

If I believed that these policies were going to help American workers, I'd have a very different view. I have no doubt in my mind that the best case scenario, and I'm not even convinced this is true, but the best case is that it helps some workers by hurting far more workers. You are picking winners and losers and conservatives have historically been against the government, let alone the federal government of Washington, D.C. being in charge of picking winners and losers in the economy. But David, I think what ended up driving some of this is that even during the COVID time,

we realized how much of a hostage we were to China as an example for Pharmaceuticals to India for pharmaceuticals things like that where we couldn't even make the antibiotics to to take care of us So what is the I don't think it's fair to say that it was driven by that because the president campaign in 2015 and 16 on this and began Tariff threats in 2018 and and the covid moment came in twenty twenty but like I said. The if that's your concern my concern other people's concern we

couldn't possibly be going about this in a worse way. If we want us to take seriously. Supply chain dependency on critical infrastructure from pharma international security. Then why are we going after Swiss chocolate. We have no credibility. If we're trying to pretend this is about national from pharma to national security, then why are we going after Swiss chocolate?

We have no credibility if we're trying to pretend this is about national security and critical infrastructure and then focusing on Vietnamese t-shirt manufacturing. So the execution matters and we're not executing this the right way. All right, do you see us, see the markets here as you've been examining things in the Don, in the Bonson group.

Do you see a rotation out of tech or are we looking at the Nvidia's deal as an example of maybe a revitalization of it, bringing it domestically? How do you see that right now? Well, those stocks well before the trade war were perversely overpriced. And you saw a correction begin to take place before April 2nd, big announcements. And so if there is no trade war and no issues going on, I still believe Nvidia could easily be down 20 to 30% as it is because it was trading at 70 times earnings.

And people just have to realize you know as we're sitting here right now talking and video has a market capitalization of two point seven trillion dollars with a T. apple is back up above three trillion dollars. So how do you go up ten

percent. Well if you're three trillion you have to grow the value of your business by $300 billion more. And essentially, $300 billion, now you're talking about in one year, going up the size of like 10 major entire US companies in one year. And those are big companies thirty fifty billion dollar type size companies large cap. Though it

so large the law of the trees it's hard to grow through the sky and so I just think that they have. A diminished return profile going forward because they've been. Us so unbelievably successful for the last decade.

There's no precedent in US history, and this speaks to the dynamic reality of our own economy and market by the way, there's no precedent for the leader of one decade being the leader of another decade. It just doesn't work that way. All right, David, what about the price of gold? What is gold saying? Is it a dollar weakness? Is it just kind of returning to a kind of form of money?

Or is it just because there is concern that nobody can't that well, there's a loss of trust in the system right now. How do you see that? I kind of think it's none of the above or all the above at once. It's just mixed bags that relies totally on investor sentiment. The biggest thing that drives up or down the price of gold essential bank buying. There been a bit more it still has a woefully bad return over the last ten to twelve years. In a

period of huge uncertainty huge fiscal deficits huge monetary policy insanity. But over the last couple years it's had a really big spike. I so in a very short term period traders can do quite well with gold. But I think that longer term, a lot of people don't realize that gold is completely dependent on

somebody believing it's going to be worth something more in the future. And it's gone decades at a time, you know, from 1980 to 2002, being down 75% that's over 20 years from two thousand eleven to two thousand twenty one being totally flat zero percent return for ten years. It's having a big run right now but I think that- you you really have a tough time when there's

no internal rate of return getting the value gold other than speculation. But right now I agree with you that there is some sense of people just turning to gold through the uncertainty of the moment. All right. What do you make of... are we going to be through kind of just a little bit of the flop and chop you think over the next few weeks before tariffs end up restarting again or if... I know trying to

peer into anyone's crystal ball is a is maybe a fool's errand. I don't know. What are you feeling? Well, it's a fool. It's a fool's errand all the time, but it's like a five times fool's errand now because I don't think the president knows what he's going to do after lunch today, let alone in three weeks. I do believe you're going to get announcements that people are going to like. I think you're going to hear on Thursday of a good deal with Japan and there's going to be other announcements like Nvidia saying we're making more things in America even if they were already doing that anyways. You know, I don't mind at all the administration taking some political victory

laps where they can. I think they need to right now. Some of it will be substantive and some of it probably will be a little hyperbolic, but everyone's kind of used to that with the administration. I don't think that's a big deal, but I don't think that we're going to make market projections on where the China trade war is going, what he's going to do with semiconductors, what announcements are coming with India. There's a lot of uncertainty right now and I can't predict three hours from now, let alone three weeks.

All right. Well, I'll tell you, you do a great recap of this. Dividend Cafe is, I subscribed to that after the last time we had a conversation. I find it thought-provoking reading and of course you cut against my grain sometimes too, but I need that. I think everybody needs that rather than just being in our happy echo chambers, you know, that sort of thing. than just being in our happy echo chambers. Well I try and hopefully I'll do it with civility and and a charitable discourse. That's always my goal even if it's going against the grain but we're

trying to be objective and and appreciate your thoughtful questions today. It's been a fun conversation. Yeah and the final question how do they sign up for that for that email? Just dividendcafe.com it's a free riding. I started off doing it for clients 17 years ago in the financial crisis and over the years we've grown into tens of thousands of people non-clients and so very happy for people to sign up at dividendcafe.com. Thank you very much David Bonson appreciate being able to pick your brain here for a little bit we'll have you back thank you. God bless. Bye bye. Take care now. 730 at KMED 993 KBXG.

Hi, it's John at Wellburn's Weapons. The only thing better than shooting is sh- 732. By the way, we are going to have a Diner 62 real American quiz today. And I'm liking this. I love it when we get some history for April 15th. About Wild West gunslingers, especially people that are fighting in their last shootout. We're going to end up having it. So that's that's what we're going to be covering today. We'll have a diner 62 quiz.

Maybe we'll do this after I talk with Herman and do some other things this next half hour. So we'll have some more on that one way or the other. It's a 7 33. By the way, this pebble in your shoe Tuesday. Yeah, today is income tax day. This is the deadline. You have to get that or else a file an extension.

My income taxes have been pretty. And I don't want to say boring. I still, I still have to go through it and do a bit of this going on and I still have to do some calculations and get out all the paperwork and stuff. But I had to pay about $700 to the feds and I got $650 back from the state. So you kind of one washes out the other. So just not that big of a deal. I always try to keep the refunds to a minimum because you know you get a refund and then people get all excited. Oh I got a tax refund. Yeah you gave the federal and the state

government too much of your money. That's right. And that's just all there is to it. But I think the part that still continues to irritate me and that when I, when I hear the Trump administration, I hear other people talk about wanting to, uh, to eliminate the income tax. That part of me just, I would love that idea. I would love that in general. The problem I have with the, tax is that whatever you tax, whatever you tax ultimately, especially at the federal level, you're saying that you don't want

as much of. And I also don't like the way that the current tax system treats labor differently from taking your money and say putting it in a business. When you tax every dollar that a person makes when they have to go to work, now maybe I feel this way because I don't own it. Well, I do have a side hustle, but I don't. The majority of my income is not from my own business, that sort of thing. Most of it I have to come to work and I'm working for someone. So every single penny that I have ends up getting taxed one way or the other. And the old Trump, the Trump tax bill, which passed a few years ago, actually increased my taxes a little bit because I had a lot of exemptions and deductions that worked under the old system that don't matter anymore, you know, the new ones.

So I'm not complaining too much about that. I think I pay about $300 a year more under the new tax bill and will likely be renewed by the end of this year. But the part that irritates me is the way that labor gets treated in contrast to so-called unearned income. Like I know people that, in fact, I even have relatives that do this. Oh, you got this deduction and that deduction and hey, you know, I got a rental property and yada yada yada, this or that or the other. But oh, but what I made wasn't really income, you know.

It's amazing how many times I'll hear this, especially because of the social security taxes. Social security taxes only comes from labor you know those kind of things I Really would like to see more of the income Treated as income everywhere in my opinion just my opinion. I I know I'm not an economist and things like that I would like to see similar rules I know I'm not an economist and things like that. I would like to see similar rules. That's the one thing about a sales tax

that I think is good, having a national sales tax or a fair tax, whatever you want to call it, those kind of things. And it also taxes the underground dirt bag economy too. I think there's something to be said about that. But the system, I think, is very harsh for legitimate people working at a regular job with the, you know, you get your W-2 income, you know, you can't hide

any of that sort of stuff. They get everything. But, you know, if you're not, there are all sorts of ways to still continue to finagle it, just in my opinion. Maybe that's just a little bit of jealousy on my part. And you know, I'll admit maybe there is a little bit about that. It's like, gee, every penny that I that I will make gets taxed and tracked and bagged. But many people are able to still finagle the rules to their to their favor. So I wouldn't mind seeing the Internal Revenue Service disappear and not having to prove my innocence every year. I'd be okay with that. 737 KMED, you're on the Bill Meyers show. You're worried because your home has been on market with no success. An expired listing

can be frustrating, but it doesn't have to be the end of your journey. Hey, it's Lars. What you need is the right real estate agent. And in the Medford area, that would be only my friend Jared Hinson of Hokinson. Hi I'm Stephen with Stephen Westwell Roofing Inc. and I'm on KMED. It's 18 before 8. By the way we're going to have some open phones here in about 10-15 minutes on Pebble in Your Shoe Tuesday and we can dig into all sorts of things which have been irritating you.

I ended up getting an email yesterday from an individual out on Skyview Drive, Skyview Drive in Jackson County, that their road is destroyed and they're having some concerns about getting some help from the county. I'll share you details about that here in just a little bit. Boy, their road got wiped out for sure.

And a lot of people kind of being stranded there, but we'll delve into that here in just a moment. Continuing the conversation where the political meets the economics. And I wanted to bring in former state senator, of course, former Josephine County Commissioner, Herman Barachiger. Herman, always good to have you back. Welcome. You just got back from Idaho, huh? Yeah, you know, it was really interesting, it was a business trip. When you leave Oregon, Ontario, you know, you leave and you draw this imaginary, well,

it's not an imaginary line, it is definitely a line. So in Oregon, I felt like I was in a country that not a lot of activity was going on. As soon as you cross over into Idaho and you drive through the Treasure Valley, it's unbelievable. It's just exploding. floating. But the flip side, the bad side, the traffic. But I counted 72 cranes, and this is just counting from I-84, along that route, working buildings, buildings, and infrastructure and stuff like that. Is that amazing? And then you look at Portland, Oregon. Portland used to be such a hub of prosperity and economic growth and trade. And it's all gone. You just gotta shake your head and open your eyes and go, wow, such a contrast. And you see it when you leave the Oregon economy and you visit another, it doesn't even have

to be a pure red state, it could even be kind of a purpley state, and it looks quite a bit different than it does here right now. I don't think anybody can deny that right now, Herman. And the gas is almost 60 cents a gallon cheaper. Oh no, so Idaho has actually helped putting out more carbon in the air. Oh my gosh, it's going to kill Oregon by default, even though it's next... And they want to add another 20 cents to our gas tax bill. I guess it really comes down to though, we are in this really strange time here on the

West Coast here, Herman. This is my home. I've stayed here for years. I've been out on the West Coast frankly since 1980. So it's been 40, 45 years you know that I've been here. You've been out here on the West Coast all your life, right? Most of it, yeah. I was a teenager. Well, I have been on the West Coast all my life. I've been on this farm. I bought this farm in the early 80s and I'm still here. I mean, I've added onto it. I've bought farms around me that surround me, so I've added onto it.

But you know, and it's beautiful and it's everything I want. And you know, my kids, I always say, you know, I got my kids out of the house, but not off the property. Yeah. So I mean, it is. I'm very happy. I just look at the state that I live in and it's just a state of chaos. It really is. And it's funny because... Well, and the chaos though seems to be talking about all of the federal spending which will be cut. Well, you even

look at what's happening in Josephine County in the city of Grants Pass. Fifty million dollars that grant from the federal government is looking now pretty pretty iffy and will likely be canceled for the for the water treatment plant, right? Why be an anti-state? Why don't we just go out and create our own economy and benefit from the fruits that that economy bears? It's the opposite. It's like these people want to shut it down. Wherever you look, land use planning, it's not business friendly.

We've talked about that on the show, the taxes and everything. They just, you and when I look up in the makeup of the legislature or the governor, what has the governor ever done in her life? Nothing. She's an activist. She got elected into politics. She became successful in politics and that's it. She's never created anything. So apparently we have a bunch of children playing with matches and they've been setting the place on fire in one form or another for quite some time. I look at the Oregon Senate and this is not a personal attack because I just don't get personal but I'm looking at what has most of the people in the Oregon Senate accomplished that what has most of the people in the Oregon Senate accomplished in their lives? Outside of being activists and getting involved politically, what do they know about how things

really work? How does the world really spin? Is it really that dependent on, on feminine napkins, the fenders in the boys' room and bathrooms? That's what's important. Yeah. And is it really dependent on Republicans voting to move those bills forward? Aye, aye, aye. Yeah. It's just like, you know, moving this, this gun legislation forward. Are you re, you know, moving this gun legislation forward. Are you re- you know, I was looking at the testimony on HB 3075, I think is the number. I'm always terrible with bill numbers because there's so many of them. But anyways, it's the, almost all the testimony in opposition were from

people that I interpreted as with male names, and there was a lot of them. And almost all the testimony in support were of names that were what I feel were of female origin, and not very many. And aren't the majority of state legislatures female? I don't want to make this completely about gender, but you... I don't know what the racial is, and I get what you're saying. But look at our state agencies, look at this. And it is really kind of a feminized power structure, well, a left-wing feminized power

structure. Well, when I look at the testimony, and I didn't have time to count it up, but there was hundreds, or if not thousands, of testimony in opposition. And I would say the racial is at least 100 to 1. So 100 people opposing to one person supporting. Yeah, but the feminized power structure passes it anyway, right? And then, and you know, you don't have time to read all the testimony, but you know, Mark Knutson, Reverend Mark Knutson of the Lutheran Church in Portland, who has been the ringleader, the person that started all of this. And I just, he lives in some kind of place that I've never visited before. I mean, you know, he thinks that

this is going to stop gun violence and suicide and every bad thing that happens on the planet. I don't understand why any of these people care if someone commits suicide with a gun. Because what, just so you don't go to the state agency in charge of death with dignity and you just do it yourself, somehow that's a bad thing? I don't get that, Herman. I never have got that. Yeah. it yourself somehow that's a bad thing. I don't get that Herman. I never have got that. Yeah and you would think that, just read his testimony, you just go on and oh listen read it.

Talk about fairy land. I just fairy tale land. So are we are we hollowing ourselves out Herman with the people who have been voting with their feet? Like I said I've known colleagues, friends of mine, some moved to Florida, some moved to Idaho, some moved to Tennessee, you know, and they... Yeah, the last couple years we've had a couple negative immigration out of Oregon. And you know, it was really interesting. So while something tells me though, Herman, to that point, I don't think the progressives are necessarily leaving the state. Would you agree with that or not?

Because this would seem to be home. No, this is their blue state. Yeah. This is what they want, you know, and they're going to get it. Let me tell you, because, you know, the big businesses, I mean, just look at Dutch Brothers pulled up and left. That's a half a billion dollars a year out of the state of Oregon. That's a big chunk of that or somewhere in that neighborhood. It's a lot. So elections are having consequences economically

here for us in southern Oregon. Is this something that you think can be recovered from long term? Or we just write it down and then just accept the Salem communist future? I know I'm asking you to spitball a little bit in your former legislative crystal ball. I think it's like every other addiction. This is addiction, you know, this is addiction, you know, on the on the environment the climate all these things. I think Like every addiction. I don't think it turns around until it hits the bottom of the barrel as we've always said You know how many times you heard that? Oh, you know that person's drinking himself full his life away got to wait till he hits the bottom of the barrel to wake up

Well, I think that's what happened and you said the magic word. it's long-term. It's not going to happen in my lifetime or your lifetime, Bill. We're too far down the road. It won't happen that quickly. And that's an important thing. You know, we're sorry to not be able to give a real positive prognosis to Oregon, but we're here to talk realistically. And collapse is not an event, it's a process. And I think that's something which is very important. People are saying, gosh, I wonder when the system is going to collapse in Oregon or yada, yada, yada. And it's not an event,

it's something which is a long-term decay here. And that's been happening for quite some time, ever since I've been here in 91. Yeah, and California is in such a bad shape. I mean, California is just horrible. I mean, that's our future, okay? But what I feel, and I don't have any statistics to point to or anything, I just, it's a gut feeling. But we all know that California has a big negative immigration rate. And I feel that the people that are of the liberal persuasion are moving to or migrating to

Oregon and people with the conservative persuasion are moving to states like Idaho or Texas or something like that. That's what I feel is going on. So red states are going to get redder, blue states even bluer long term. That's what I think. Like I said, I don't have any absolute data to point to. It's just based on my observations, you know. But there's no, I don't think there's any big studies, at least none that I know of

that point, but that's what I feel is going on. It'll be interesting to see where Oregon finds itself after the Trump administration slices and dices the grant stream funding, you know, completely here because Oregon has been able to govern itself stupidly for a long time because there's been a lot of backfilling coming from a federal grant stream funding and taking care of other things that frankly we should have been paying for ourselves all along if we were going to do something like that. Up until now, there hasn't been as much local cost. That might be changing around pretty soon, huh? Oh yeah, well if you look at

states like New York and New Jersey, if you go back a hundred years ago, look who they were running by, you know, Teddy Roosevelt? I mean, they were Republican, okay? And now they're not, and they've went so far that the money is leaving those states like crazy because the taxes are too high and and so that's what I feel that is going to happen to Oregon you know you you got to wait till you hit the bottom of the barrel and I don't think that's going to be in my lifetime I'm sorry. All right well I wish it was a happier thing but I always like to kick things around. I was talking tariffs and stuff with David Bonson a little bit earlier. In your opinion, could Trump be making some missteps

here on some of this? What do you think? Well, you know, he's doing a tariff overhaul. We've been through tariff wars before. And yeah, there's going to be, there's going to be mistakes. It's just, there's going to be unintended consequences, let's put it that way. But the overall, he was very focused on just the tariffs, which is, that's okay. I'm more focused on the national debt, which is interact, because that's what Trump is trying to do. What Trump is trying to do is we're spending $6 trillion, I'm going to use some really, really big round numbers. We have been historically for the last decade spending six trillion

dollars a year and only taking in four. And then that even got worse in 2018, 19, 20, and 21. You bet. Yeah, the COVID years. So what he's trying to do is really fast. He is trying to, one, cut spending, and two, create, this is basic math, and create more income through tariffs so that we can reduce that six trillion of spending and increase that four trillion of income and try to balance this budget.

That's what he's trying to do. He's trying to do it right now. And that's going to have some unintended consequences. I hope he pulls it off. Well, I hope he pulls it off too successfully, because if he doesn't, I can assure you that Democrats roar back in the midterms and then they will dismantle what he has done ultimately. I want it to be successful. No, if they come back in the midterms bill, they can't undo what he's done because remember, he's got to sign the bills.

That's true. Okay, that's right. Well, in the next presidential cycle, they could, though. They could. Oh, yeah. But what they can do is, since they control the checkbook, they can stop his progress is what they can do. Okay?

And if they stop his progress, this will surely fail. And if it fails, then the Democrats could probably come back in four years. All right. Appreciate the call as always, Herman. Always good talk. I always enjoy the kind of the weekly with a cup of coffee and noodling around on these political things.

You've pretty old hand on these kind of things, alright? Well, you know, I've been studying them a long time and it takes a lot of reading, a lot of research, and also one thing that I, when I talk to people, you know, just casual friends and stuff and they really pick my brain, what I've never, I didn't understand is, is it's like reading a different language and if you don't understand that language it's hard to read, you know what I mean? Yeah, indeed. Carmen Barichick, a former state senator and we appreciate you coming on. You be well, thanks. You take care, Bill. All right. 770-5633. Why do I give out the

phone number right now? Because we're going to do the Diner 62 Real American Quiz. Real American Quiz is when we get together and you get a $20 gift certificate. If you can answer this historical question, it's a great question. It involves Bat Masterson, Western gunslinger, it's multiple choice, and you can get a $20 gift certificate so you can make Diner 62 your lunch destination with those juicy third pound burgers and all the other goodie things just south of White City. 770-5633.

All I ask is that you have not won this in the last 60 days. We'll play it next. Have some fun. Hi, it's Bill Meyer. Listeners keep letting me know they're saving at Sky Park Insurance. News Talk 1063, KMED. It's the Bill Meyer Show on KMED. they're saving at Diner 62. Let me go to Lauren.

Hi Lauren, how are you this morning? I'm not well since I'm number one, but okay, maybe I'll get lucky. It could be, it could be. Alright, so it was today in history, 1881, Lauren, Western gunslinger, Bat Masterson, fights in his last shootout. It was the streets of Dodge City. Famous western lawman and gunfighter, Bat Masterson. It's his last documented gun battle. His name was actually Bartholomew, but that's where he got bat. He had made his living with his gun from a young age. In his early 20s, Masterson worked as a buffalo hunter. He was also an army scout in the Plains Indian War.

He also worked as a lawman in Dodge City for many years until he lost his re-election. For many years after that, Masterson drifted around the West then in early 1881. News that his younger brother, Jim, was in trouble back in Dodge City. It reached Masterson when he was in Tombstone. Jim's dispute with a business partner and an employee had led to an exchange of gunfire. Though no one had been hurt, Jim feared for his life. Masterson immediately took a train to Dodge City. So the question here, Lauren, what was Bat Masterson's job four decades later when he died at the age of 67 in 1921. What was he doing at that time? Was

he a steamboat captain? Was he running a general store? Was he a barber? Was he a car salesman or was he a sports editor? It's one of those five and what do you think? I'm going to suggest... now I lost it. Continue it again, I'm sorry. Steamboat captain, ran a general store, barber, car salesman, or a sports editor. I'm gonna go with the store. General store. General store. That makes more sense than anything else on that list. No. It wasn't. I am so sorry. All right. Let me... It's not that. So it wasn't a general store. Scratch that out. Let me go to Kevin.

Hey Kevin, how are you doing this morning? Good. How are you doing, Bill? Doing fine. Bat Masterson dies in 1921 and was he a steamboat captain for those final decades, a barber, car salesman, or a sports editor? What do you say? Sports editor. Sports editor? You're thinking a guy that was a gunfighter was sitting there at a typewriter writing about sports? Really? Yes. It is absolutely... you want to talk about... you couldn't have picked this one a little bit oddler. Yeah, around 1885, Bat Masterson left Dodge City, never came back, died October 1921 at his desk.

He had a heart attack while he was working for the New York Morning Telegraph as a sports editor. So there we go. And it's, by the way here, Kevin, it's an interesting story. His final gun battle when his train pulled into Dodd City on the morning, Masterson wasted no time. He quickly spotted the two guys, confronted them at a crowded street. He said, I've come a thousand miles to settle this. I know you are healed, meaning armed. Now fight. And all three men immediately drew their guns. Masterson took cover behind the railway bed while the other men darted around the corner of the city jail.

Several other men joining in the fight. One bullet meant for Masterson ricocheted and hurt a bystander and one of Masterson's targets took a bullet in his right lung. The mayor and the sheriff arrived with shotguns to stop the battle. When a lull settled over it, wounded taken to the doctor and both eventually recovered. And since the shootout had been fought fairly by Dodge City standards of the day, no serious charges, Bat Masterson paid an $8 fine and took the train out of Dodge City. So that was the whole story there, Kevin, of his final gunfight. Not incredibly dramatic, but still, $8 fine for a gunfight. Can you imagine that today?

Yeah, yeah, you know, you got the gang bangers in Southern Oregon. Well, we're just going to find you and just move along, kids. All right. So, Kevin, hang on. We're going to send you over to Diner 62. It's going to be a lot of fun, and I know you're going to get fed really well. After news and the Kim Commando digital update. Eat us open phones on Pebble in Your Shoe Tuesday.

Have at it. Anything on your mind. We can talk about it next.