Bill O’Reilly’s No Spin News and Analysis - A Vice-Presidential Debate Break Down, Trump WON'T Talk to '60 Minutes' Until They Apologize & Andrei Roman Forecasts Next Month's Elections

Episode Date: October 3, 2024

Tonight's rundown:  Hey BillOReilly.com Premium and Concierge Members, welcome to the No Spin News for Wednesday, October 2, 2024. Stand Up for Your Country.  Talking Points Memo: Bill dissects Tuesday's vice-presidential debate and reveals which candidate won. Is Trump backing out of his '60 Minutes’ interview? AtlasIntel CEO Andrei Roman joins the No Spin News to share his insights on the latest political trends. The latest updates in Iran, what you need to know. Smart Life: Underestimating the high costs of owning pets. This Day in History: President Woodrow Wilson suffers a stroke at the White House. Final Thought: The media claims Tim Walz won the debate. In Case You Missed It: Read Bill's latest column, The Gibberish Factor For a limited time, get our three latest Political Memorabilia mugs at a 25% discount. Our Political Memorabilia 2.0 bundle includes a Not Woke mug in navy, a Team Normal mug in white and our newest mug, No Socialism in navy. ORDER TODAY! Election season is here! Now's the time to get a Premium or Concierge Membership to BillOReilly.com, the only place for honest news analysis. Get Bill's latest book, CONFRONTING THE PRESIDENTS, out NOW! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey, Bill O'Reilly here. Welcome to the No Spin News Wednesday, October 2, 2024, 24, stand up for your country. Do not forget tonight for Bill O'Reilly.com premium members, special Q&A question and answer. my answers on the election, all right, just for premium and concierge members. Now, if you're not one, sign up, you get a free copy of my number one bestseller confronting the president. I can't do better than that. And you tune in at nine tonight after my appearance on News Nation at 8 with Chris Cuomo,

and we'll kick it around. And some really good questions, by the way, so that's coming up. Now, Donald Trump caught a break last night. in the vice presidential debate went senator vance's way i'm going to explain that um he did very well but it was uh more than meets the eye so you're going to hear the knee jerk uh analysis today means nothing it's mostly um based on ideology partisanship ours is not we're going to give you the facts behind what you saw a snap poll by cbs news right after the debate had Vance winning by just one point, I think it was 47, 46. But that's because

people believe what they want to believe. So if you were going in watching the debate and you were a Harris Wall supporter, then he won. And same thing on the Trump vance thing. Very few American voters can separate themselves from emotion. We can, which is why you're here worldwide. We don't have that emotion. We have preferences. and we explain why. So here's what actually happened last night as presented in the Talking Points Memo. So who won?

Well, if you are a historian like I am, you evaluate a vice presidential debate by two yardsticks. Number one, which VP candidate helped his ticket the most? Vance, by far. Number two, which VP candidate was most presidential? I would think Senator Vance won that one as well. It's not because I'm rooting, I'll back it up.

The problem with Governor Walls was that he came out shaky, and you can see it. All right, he was, and he's a human being. Never been on that kind of a stage before. Knows, there's a lot on a line. He was shaky. And when presented with him fabricating a story about being in China during Tenement Square, the revolution there, he really looked uneasy. Go.

So I was in Hong Kong and China during the democracy protest when he. And from that, I learned a lot of what needed to be in governance. And then he said he was a knucklehead and that he fabricated. He didn't say he used the word fabricated a lie, but he said, I wasn't in 10 minutes square. And he had spread that story around, not just one time. So the protests were in 1989. He didn't get to China until after it. Not a big deal because I'd say almost every politician embellishes.

distorts, but that whole presentation made people uneasy. He was not confident, he was not strong, he was not credible. Okay, and there were other examples, but that I think is the best. Now, the overall scenario was the same as the Trump-Harris debate, three against one. CBS, a liberal network, there's no question about it.

All right? We went over to the fact that I couldn't get on CBS Sunday morning because they never booked non-liberal authors. Ever. Just don't do it. That is such a bad thing, but that's who they are. So Vance knew that. And Vance was prepared, unlike Trump. Trump let himself be put on the defensive. Vance did not. Big difference. So one of the things was abortion, which is an issue helping the Harris-Waltz ticket. Vance picked out a very troubling part of the abortion situation in America. That is, in Minnesota, a law signed by Governor Walsh, no longer required. requires doctors to save the life of a baby born after a botched abortion.

Vance through that right over the walls. Go. Trying to distort the way a law is written to try and make a point. That's not it at all. What was I wrong about, Governor? Please tell me. What was that wrong about? That is not the way the law is written.

Look, I've given this. But how? I've given this advice on a lot of things that getting involved, getting against. That's been misread and it was fact checked at the last debate. But the point on this is, is there's a continuation of these guys to try and tell women or to get involved. I use this line on this. Just mind your own business on this. Not good enough because Walls signed a law. In 1976, Minnesota passed a law.

Okay, the law said, quote, all reasonable measures consistent with good medical practice, including compilation of appropriate medical records shall be taken to preserve the life and health. of the child born after a failed abortion. That's pretty clear. Every step has to be taken. Walsh knocked it out and replaced it with, quote, preserve the life and health of the born alive infant was replaced with care for the infant who is born alive.

Care. Not preserve. That's a big. difference because a physician said, well, I cared for. I just didn't, you know, take any steps to make sure it lived. But I cared for. It wasn't in any pain. That's the argument. Then there was a wording in the law in the first law in 76 that waltz knocked out that you were mandated. Doctor was mandated that abortion providers report all live births after a botched aborting. They had to report it to the state.

Balls knocked that out. Let's face it, the U.S. economy is under stress. National debt rising, trade war, shaking the markets. And meanwhile, China is dumping the dollar and stockpiling gold. That's why I protected my savings with physical gold and silver. through the only dealer I trust, American Hartford Gold. And you can do this. Get precious metals delivered to your door or place in a tax advantage, gold IRA.

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It's what you want from the New York Post wrapped up in one snappy show. Ask your smart speaker to play the NY Postcast podcast, listen and subscribe on Amazon Music, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. That's as extreme as it gets. You don't get more extreme than that. Okay? So Walsh was fumbling around. He's an extremist when it comes to life issues, and I think pretty much every issue.

And then Vance did something very smart. He knows that the Republicans are running behind, particularly with women on the abortion issue. And here's what he said. As a Republican who proudly wants to protect innocent life in this country, who proudly wants to protect the vulnerable, is that my party, we've got to do so much better of a job at earning the American people's trust back on this issue where they frankly just don't trust us. And I think that's one of the things that Donald Trump and I are endeavoring to do. I want us as a Republican Party to be pro-family in the fullest sense of the word. Very good. He admits a mistake. See, Trump never

admits a mistake. Instead, the only party is not doing a good job here. We've got to get back to it. That's comforting to voters who are not in the ideological categories. there was Margaret Brennan, who is a militant liberal. I mean, everybody knows it. People get upset about it. You know, oh, Nora O'Donnell, Margaret Brennan, there are liberal people. They're all liberal people on every network here. There are no, even moderate people. They're in a club, the liberal journalist media club. We saw that at ABC. They didn't have. they don't have anyone on the staff of ABC who's moderate. And the same thing with CBS.

So CBS puts out that they're not going to actively fact-check. They didn't put it in writing, by the way, but they put out a statement saying, well, we're not, the statement was verbal. We're not going to really actively fact-check during the debate, if you want, we'll do it on our website. But Margaret Brennan did fact-check, Vance, on the Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio. Go.

And just to clarify for our viewers, Springfield, Ohio does have a large number of Haitian migrants who have legal status, temporary protected status. Well, Marga, but, thank you. Senator, we have so much to get to. Margaret, I think it's important because the economy, thank you. Margaret, the rules were that you guys weren't going to fact check. And since you're fact checking me, I think it's important to say what's actually going on. So there's an application called the CBP one app where you can go on as an illegal

migrant apply for asylum or apply for parole and be granted legal status at the wave of a Kamala Harris open border wand. That is not a person coming in applying for a green card and waiting for 10 years. Thank you, Senator. And they cut his mic. Now Vance is smart to do that because everybody saw it. Brennan was distorting it. Okay. Migrants don't have legal status when Biden and Harris waive them over. We have immigration law. You've got to apply for asylum at a port of entry. Biden and Harris don't enforce the law. That's the truth. They wave them on in. So Vance was right. Brennan couldn't care less about the law. She wanted to make Vance look that and he turned it on her.

Now, Vance did do something that I thought was not smart. He kept going, Harris is responsible for the open border. Harris is responsible for inflation. Harris is responsible for the chaos overseas. She's not. She cheerleaded it, but Biden's the guy that screwed up the country. Harris didn't have power. All she went is, oh, yeah, binomics is great.

Oh, the border is secure. You can get her on that. But to say that she had the power to do anything, she had no power. Has no power, even now. Okay. So now everybody watching this knows advance is doing pretty damn good job here. He is humanizing himself because he was nice of walls. You know, they were back and forth.

It's not nasty, not mean, authoritative. And he looks like U.S. Grant. So the second yardstick is who's more presidential. So come on. You look at Vance and you look at Walsh. Walls is like your uncle who shows up and you've got to get him out of the house in two hours. That's the limit. You got to get him out.

I mean, if you're Putin, who do you want to go up against? Vance or Wals? Come on. So to sum up, Vance wins the debate because, A, he helps the Trump ticket, stabilizes it, humanizes it, which badly needed, okay? And B, it looks far more presidential if he had to take over than Walsh does. And that's the memo. As far as the moderators are concerned, I know Nora O'Donnell. You know, no tension there.

I mean, I think she, I admire what she's accomplished in her career. She's liberal, but that doesn't matter to me. I don't care. Brennan, I don't know, but Brennan comes across as New York snooty. But both of them, O'Donnell and Brennan, let both the candidates dodge questions. Ooh. That gets to me. Here's Walls. Go. Governor Walls, if you were the final voice in the situation room, would you support or oppose a preemptive strike by Israel on Iran? You have two minutes. Well, thank you. And thank you for those joining home tonight. Let's keep in mind where this started.

October 7th, Hamas terrorists massacred over 1,400 Israelis and took prisoners. Didn't answer the question. Didn't even come close to answering the question. Now, if I'm a moderator, I'll play a soundlight later. That just drives me nuts because it's insulting to you and me. Answer the Blanken question. And Vance did it too. Go. Would you again seek to challenge this year's election results, even if every governor certifies the results? I'll give you two minutes. Well, Nora, first of all, I think that we're focused on the future. We need to figure out how to solve the inflation crisis caused by Kamala Harris's policies,

make housing affordable, make groceries affordable, and that's what we're focused on. Do we dodged it. Now, here's what I said on News Nation last night. Go. What J.D. Vance accomplished was he made himself human, unlike Donald Trump, who never does that. And he made himself accessible. I hate that word, but it's a trendy word now, in a sense that you could go up.

And I interviewed Vance a few weeks ago, and he answered all the questions, because I don't allow anybody to dodge on my program. They are not allowed to dodge. I will come in and crush them. All right? So we don't have that problem. But tonight, Vance did his ticket more good. then Walsh did his ticket and Wals pretty much said the company line I mean that's what he did so there was nothing new on that front but that's why you're here that's why you're watching

and listening to me on our radio stations across the country because we're not going to let the people dodge and that's not that hard and but these network anchors and cable people they let they allow it all the time drives me nuts all right schedules Biden goes to South Carolina and North Carolina they had to look at the hurricane damage. Kamala Harris is in Augusta, Georgia. Donald Trump's in Midland, Texas, raising money. Trump says that I'm not going to go on 60 minutes. So 60 minutes wanted to run half Kamala Harris, half Donald Trump on Monday. Trump says, not going. Roll it. Okay, Leslie Stoll was the interview. She didn't say that the Hunter laptop was from Russia.

she did say a number of times and pretty snippy that hasn't been verified she was wrong okay because the laptop was from hunter and there were enough there was enough evidence around where she's saying it wasn't verified was bull she should apologize trump's right there but trump overstates it as usual but uh 60 men's not gonna it's not gonna uh apologize but what's a real reason Trump's not going to do 60 minutes, and he may change his mind. He might. The real reason, and I told you this earlier this week, is that Trump people think they're winning, think they're going to win, and they don't want to take any chances on another

debate or 60 minutes or anything like that. They want total control over the messaging, 100%, because they think they're ahead and they're going to win. That's where we are. So polling starts to matter now, and it's all over the place. You know, if you follow the polling like we do, you know, Trump's head here, he's behind here, and it changes from pole to poll, and you go right, your head blows off. But we focused in earlier this week on Atlas Intel.

It's a poll that was the most accurate last time around 2020. All right, Atlas Intel is the smallest average era cross-pulsters of the 2020 U.S. presidential race. So it's the best, or was the best. So I told myself, I want to know more about this poll because, you know, a lot of these polls are dishonest. And this one looks like it's not. So we tracked down Dr. Andre Roman. He lives in Brazil where he runs his company, which is a database products for political intelligence and economic forecasting company, not just politics, does a bunch of stuff. And he joins us now from Porto Alegre.

So Dr. Roman has a PhD from Harvard. I'm not going to hold that against you. I only have a master's degree from the Cambridge institution. But why do you think you were the most accurate last time around in the USA? Power, politics, and the people behind the headlines. I'm Miranda Devine, New York Post columnist, and the host of the brand new podcast, Podforce One. Every week, I'll sit down for. candid conversations with Washington's most powerful disruptors, lawmakers,

lawmakers, and even the president of the United States. These are the leaders shaping the future of America and the world. Listen to Podforce One with me, Miranda Devine, every week on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcast. You don't want to miss an episode. Hey, it's Sean Spicer from the Sean Spicer Show podcast, reminding you to tune into my show every day to get your daily dose inside the world of politics. President Trump and his team are shaking up Washington like never before, and we're here to cover it from all sides, especially on the topics the mainstream media won't. So if you're a political junkie on a late lunch or getting ready for the drive home, new episodes of the Sean Spicer Show podcast drop at 2 p.m. East Coast every day. Make sure you tune in.

at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcast. It was quite surprising event for us. This was the worst cycle for the U.S. polling industry in four decades. And all of our polls came within the margin of that are not just at the national level or the national popular approach, but also in each of the switchways we released. We conduct all of our polling online. We adopt a river sampling strategy. that means we don't have a panel.

We always recruit new respondents. Over time, we have developed and now with the strategies for sample calibration. We do this all over the world. We work in Latin America. We are also the most accurate pollsters of the last presidential election here in Brazil, the last three cycles in Argentina and Colombia in Chile.

Okay, so we are accepting that Atlas now is the one that we look to for the most accurate presentation. Now, you might be wrong. this time. So I might have to make fun of you after the election. What trends are you picking up in the United States, because there's only four and a half weeks now before we vote, what trends are you picking up? There is quite significant strength for Donald Trump in the national popular vote. I know this is not something that all the polls point to. Most actually have Kamala Harris

This is not our case. We have Trump three points ahead in terms of the national popular vote. There's a huge question, though, as to how this will work out in terms of the electoral college. I think we all remember the midterms and the red wave that kind of failed to materialize itself. There was actually a significant improvement for Republicans. They scored 2.8 points ahead of Democrats, but that was not, you know, helpful in terms of the balance with the seeds, as they would have expected. So one thing I would point to is that major states like New York, California, where Democrats have significant trouble in terms of governor approval, there's also a corruption scandal in New York City. well, that's really going to affect Democrats in terms of the national vote, but that doesn't really matter for the Electoral College.

And what happens in the Electoral College, for example, is that a place in Carolina, which generally is considered a lean Republican state, right now doesn't look that grade because of, well, the governmental race there. So it will be very tight in terms of the results in some of the swing states. States. Trump, in our numbers, is better than with most pollsters. But, you know, I wouldn't say this election has already been won. This will be very tight in some of the really important states. Okay. And then if it is tight, then you're going to have accusations of fraud. You know that's coming, because that's the culture that we live in here, very intense. So at this point in 2020,

because it's worth considering this. Each candidate on the Democratic side is very similar. Biden was similar to Harris. They both didn't want to answer questions, didn't put them out itself out much. Is there a difference between the way Trump is running now and when he ran four years ago? I do see differences in terms of how Trump is running his campaign.

I think that rejection rates for Trump this time around are a bit less intense than last time. He's not really a novelty anymore as he used to be in the U.S. scenario. So in particular with moderate Republicans that were kind of averse to his profile, an important swing state in Georgia and Arizona last time around. Now with a border crisis, for example, in Arizona, that may have improved. Right. At the same time with the Democratic ticket, you're looking at, you know, a ticket that with Biden had very little chance because of very poor approval ratings. Kamala has really shifted the race. But at the end of the day, the approval rating for this administration is quite poor in terms of, you know, a re-election chances for the incumbent.

president and in this case given that we're talking about the vice president yeah i'm going to check in with you before the vote and we appreciate your expertise down there in brazil very interesting that a brazil polling agency tops all the american ones that's for sure thank you doctor appreciate it very much okay let's go to iran the latest is the Israelis are on the ground in Lebanon seven killed today uh Israeli soldiers um i was asked last night on news nation what I would do. Here's what I said. Bill, I want your take on what is the decision tree for the United States based on what's happening in the Middle East tonight. To do everything they can to support Israel. You can't have a terrorist state like Iran continue this behavior. Just can't

have it. I mean, all throughout history, the heinous nations have had to be confronted. If Israel decides that it's going to go in and take out the four ports in the Persian Gulf and strangle Iran, the United States. I wouldn't put troops there. I wouldn't put American planes there to do it. I wouldn't do that. But I would support whatever the Netanyahu government decides to do in defense of their country.

Okay, so we're watching this. We're not going to speculate. I got a lot of mail, you know, how is it going to affect the vote? And I'm not going to do that. I don't know. I know one thing for sure. Iran cannot defeat Israel in a war. Israel decimate them. Israel's got a better air force. There's not going to be a ground war. You can't get soldiers through to the opposing countries. You have to do it with terror proxies. But if Iran going to take

Israel on in an air war, Israel's going to decimate them. That's what I know. Nothing else. I know that Biden and Harris have not shown leadership on this, and Trump's been kind of quiet on it, too, if you want to be fair about it. All right, Mexico is a new president. Worse than the old president, right? Is it the who? Meet the new boss, same as the old boss? He's worse.

One of whose name is Claudia Shahnbaum, socialist, takes over from Obrador, one of the worst I've ever seen, govern a country. Under Oberdors in the last five years, 200,000 people at least were murdered in Mexico. 200,000 people, all right? About 60,000 gone missing. They're murdered. They're dead. And the cartels control much of the country, particularly the northern provinces, to smuggle people and drugs into the USA.

What did Oberdoer do about it? Nothing. They're our enemy. Mexico is the United States' enemy. Harris? Does she know that? Doesn't care. Even Trump, he doesn't confront them the way I believe they should be confronted. Smart life. All right. So we have Holly DeTera Dog here at the O'Reilly Hacienda, and Holly is a really sweet, nice corgi. But Holly's been ill for about eight months. and she had a couple of brain tumors that would be removed and she's okay now but she's on medication

and we have to watch her and it's cost an enormous amount of money now money to me doesn't matter i'm going to keep holly alive as long as i can keep holly alive but if you are going to get a dog or a cat and this is a smart life segment it's going to cost you and you should know it okay so there is a study from Synchrony website, Syncrony, 1,200 U.S. pet owners, 4455 dogs, 455 cats. The overall cost for a dog is up to $2,800 a year. That's food and maintenance and all of that. For cats, 25, so how much difference? This is up to. You don't have to pay that much, but assume that it's going to be around there. Lifetime costs for a dog, $55,000.

Dogs, you know, live average 12, 13 in that range. Cats, 46,000 or less. So if you're going to get a pet, or if you have a pet, you got a bank on that dog and cat's going to get sick. You can get pet insurance, but it doesn't cover catastrophic stuff like Holly's situation. So, and you've got to be humane to the pets. All right, Holly's a matter of my family.

I do anything for my family. And I'll do anything for Holly. But she's okay now. Gets me up earlier in the morning than she used to, but that's okay. This day in history, October 2nd, 1919, President Woodrow Wilson suffers a serious stroke incapacitates. I mean, he's paralyzed on his left side, can't talk, and nobody knows.

So his advisors whisk him up to the residents, put him in bed where he stays, and his wife runs the country. Edith Wilson, signs his name and the documents. And again, it doesn't put out anything, nobody knows. They think Woody is running around and running a country in the White House. He's not. He's in bed. He can't do anything. And that was 18 months until his second term was up.

So we write about this in confronting the presidents. It was harrowing. All right. Edith was like Nancy Reagan and Joe Biden. Edith had a lot of power. But the press was clueless. American people had no idea. But they knew something was wrong, which is why the immortal Warren G. Harding,

not a rapper, a president, was elected in 1920 because Woodrow disappeared. And they were Americans are fed up with eight years of Democrats. Anyway, that was a World War I era. And Harding gets elected. Did Harding ran the same kind of campaign at Kamala's running. Didn't talk to the press, nothing. Nobody knew anything about them.

Terrible. Which is why you got to reconfirding the president is because it's germane to what we're going through today. All right, that happened. The stroke 105 years ago on this day. Back with a final thought about people who thought Walt's won a debate. All right, let's go to the final thought of the day. People believe what they want to believe.

That is my mantra. That is a truism of life. I find myself doing it too. I stop myself because I go, no, look at the facts the way they are. No wishful thinking. After the debate, we heard this. Go. Who wanted this to be a lot?

Well, Tim Walts, because he has a vision and he articulated that vision in plain spoken language. I think the big picture takeaway from this. is that one of these candidates is much slicker than the other is a much more practiced kind of professional debate-style speaker and the other candidate won. Sure. So if you don't watch that network, that's what you're going to get.

Why do people do that? Why do they watch stuff like that? I never could figure it out. All right, a reminder at 9 p.m. tonight, we're going to do a Q&A with Bill O'Reilly.com premium members. And believe me, this Q&A is going to be raucous, okay? If you are not a premium member, this is the best time to sign up, concierge or regular premium, you get Confronting the President's absolutely free or any of my other books.

If you have confronting already, any of the killing books, any of my early books, whatever you want, okay? We can't do better. So I'm going to be on the air about 40, 45 minutes from 9 to 9. 40, 45. And is all the folks. The folks, what you want to know, and I'll, of course, we'll answer honestly, no spin. That's what we do here. I'm also going to be on Cuomo at 8 o'clock tonight. They won't tell me what they're going to ask me tonight. I never get the questions in advance, but I get topics because I don't want to research. You want to know what I'm talking

about. I assume it will be Israel, Iran, because Cuomo's big on that story. Some of that. I have something to offer there, but it will be on the election too. The final thing is that, above all, we want to be honest in this election cycle, and we only have four and a half weeks to go. That's why I brought in the guy from Brazil, okay, because, you know, those people down there look to me to have no agenda whatsoever. It's not like the college polls that are working for somebody. If somebody's paying your bills, you kind of owe them.

These guys, they're at it. What I took out of the doctor's analysis was Trump's in a better position now than he was four years ago, but the electoral cause is going to be a brawl, which I think is accurate. And if it's close, you know the fraud thing is going to happen. That's why you need to keep it here. You need to be a premium or concierge member, because we will report, honestly, as we did. You didn't hear from me. In fact, we lost thousands of subscribers when I said, look, I didn't see any evidence of mass fraud. Zuckerberg, and it wasn't even investigated, pumping 200 million, whatever it was into that election in 20, that's the story.

And if Trump's elected, he has got to look into that. it wasn't the voting machines it was Zuckerberg you don't pump that kind of money into just a few counties unless there's something going on i knew that i reported that i told you that but fraud voting fraud yeah it happened but not at the level you would need to overturn okay so we will see you later on And tonight, we appreciate you watching the No Spin News.