Bill O’Reilly’s No Spin News and Analysis - America's Leverage Over China, Evaluating President Trump’s Approach With Nicholas Lardy, Egg Price Hysteria & CNN’s Questionable Bernie Sanders Town Hall

Episode Date: April 11, 2025

Tonight's rundown:  Hey BillOReilly.com Premium and Concierge Members, welcome to the No Spin News for Thursday, April 10, 2025. Stand Up for Your Country.  Talking Points Memo: How the United States could hurt China and why the Chinese economy will collapse unless a deal is reached. Nicholas Lardy, Ph.D., Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, joins the No Spin News to discuss U.S.–China relations and whether Trump may have overestimated his leverage. Bill looks at the anti-Trump media's overreaction to the price of oil and eggs. Panama and the U.S. sign a new security deal for the canal.  Why did CNN hold a town hall with Bernie Sanders? This Day in History: Paul McCartney announces that he is leaving The Beatles. Final Thought: Television pundits' saying, 'by the way' and 'we'll see.' In Case You Missed It: Read Bill's latest column, Make America Scared Again. Stand out from the crowd with our Not Woke baseball cap for just $28.95! For a limited time, get Bill O'Reilly's bestselling The United States of Trump and a No Spin Mug for only $39.95. Pre-order Bill’s next book in the new Confronting Series, ‘Confronting Evil’ NOW! Now's the time to get a Premium or Concierge Membership to BillOReilly.com, the only place for honest news analysis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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The stock market gyrations up down and out. It's not companies that may prosper, that may go into the tank. Not about that. It's about Donald Trump. what he's doing, how the media is spinging it, all of that. So it's all emotion. And when emotion takes over, your best strategy is to pull back. I'm not doing anything, okay?

I'm basically, I'm going to talk to my financial guys after this broadcasters, maybe one or two opportunities, but they're very conservative opportunities that I might take advantage of, but when you have a situation that is totally beyond your control, my control, anybody's control, then you want to pull back. Don't listen to these television nitwits. They don't know what they're talking about. They got to fill air time. Now, we're going to tell you some pretty interesting things tonight, things that are going to help you if you analyze them. The first thing is that this is all about power, world economic power. President Trump wants to increase America's power, and he's doing so in a very, very aggressive way.

Okay, shock and awe. I would have done it in a different way. I would have done a slower rollout on the tariffs. I would have explained it more. I would have been calmer and allowed the market. some kind of, you know, at least deliberation. That's how I would have done it. But that's not President Trump's style. His style is to throw the hand grenade in, blow everything up, and then come out with a better deal. And he may.

You absolutely may. But he might not. And that's where the uncertainty and the panic fit in. And that is the subject of tonight's talking points memo. So let's run it down for you. another turbulent day. I hate looking at the ticker. I have to because of my job. And it's all about China right now. So I do anticipate that a week from today, the leader of Italy, Maloney, is going to show up here. And that is going to start the deal-making process with the EU

and with Mexico and with Canada. I think those deals will get done. I could be wrong, but I think the strategy is get the deals done with the EU and the country's in our hemisphere and then China will be isolated. I think that's what it is. Again, nobody's told me that,

but I'm reading what's happening. So the United States, States has a tremendous amount of power over China, and we don't, it's not even, it's not even reported. CNN is openly sympathizing with China and other commentators, too. They're rooting for China to beat Trump. It's unbelievable. China is the most heinous country in the world by far. As we reported yesterday, we laid it out. Their war machine is being funded by U.S. dollars. Now, this is vital for you to understand. Every year, the United States pumps at least $600 billion into China.

Two ways. The trade imbalance, all right, which we reported yesterday at $300 billion, and investments. Chinese corporations and some individuals, not man. but the Chinese government buy U.S. treasuries, okay? They're bonds. They pay interest and the money comes out into China. So trade and balance is $300 billion and the interest level is $332 billion. That's more than $600 billion a year coming from us to them. Trump knows that's insane because much of that money is used to finance their war machine over there.

Think about it. The stats I give you are in stone. Now the Chinese also invest in the EU, but not as much as here. So China is dependent on the United States. the United States. They can hurt us. They pull that investment out of our treasuries. That's going to hurt. But if we take the marketplace and say to China, you're going to pay 125% on every t-shirt you sent here. It's going to close down factories over there. Who's going to make that up? Putin. Nobody wants

roubles. Okay. I mean, who? So they know that in China. They're blustering now. The Chinese economy will collapse unless a deal is made. All right. Now, I said as much on News Nation last night. Go. They're using the $300 billion trade surplus a year to fund their military machine, their war machine.

That is ultra dangerous. Trump believes it. He's going to crush the mechanization. or at least bleed them until they come to the table and make better deals. There you go. Why would they come to the table? What's the theory? Because their economy is going to collapse without the U.S. market.

Okay. So that is my belief. All right. And it's speculation, but it's educated speculation. In the next segment on News Nation, I went away, a guy named Scott Galloway shows up. He is a professor of marketing at NYU. He's also on the New York Times Company Board of Directors, so that tells you pretty much all you need to know about Scott Galloway.

Here's what he said. I realize it's bad for him to comment on a previous guest, but I just want to highlight in terms of our ability to quote unquote wreck the Chinese. economy. The largest trading partner of China is the association of Southeast Asian nations at about a trillion dollars. Number two is actually the EU at 900 billion worth third at 800 billion. So what? The Southeast Asian nations, yeah, they trade with them, okay, but they trade at a much lower level and they're not using Vietnamese currency to fund anything. And there's no investment by Chinese corporations to speak of in Southeast Asia.

There is in the EU in Japan, but not to the level of the United States. Now, Galloway's never going to tell you that, ever, because his thesis is that Trump bad. China, not so bad. Trump bad. We get this? Okay. Now, I want you to know the truth. We have left. We have leverage over China. I believe a deal will get done between Xi and Trump. Not going to be easy, obviously. But they're going to meet face-to-face. I hope it's in June. I'm hearing in the Gulf. And then let's iron all of this out. We don't need a worldwide economic war. No one needs that. Everyone will get hurt. United States getting hurt now. Folks are getting hurt now. China, you'll never hear about them getting hurt. It'll be like COVID. So the Chinese government

and said, yeah, yeah, we had a couple of hundred cases of COVID, but that's all. Meanwhile, about 100,000 people died. But you'll never get that. They'll never say it. This MailChimp-Forific jingle is brought to you by MailChimp. MailChimp, your marketing with AI and more. Advanced automations to connect to your store. MailChimp, your marketing and booster clicks.

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I'm rooting for my country. I'm not rooting for Donald Trump or the Republican Party. I'm rooting for my country. The trade deals are not fair. Everyone, every honest person knows that. They're not. Let's hope they get better for the USA and that we can de-intensify all of this. That's a memo. Now let's bring in another point of view. Dr. Nicholas Lardy is a professor of international economics. Very smart guy. Much smarter than I am. That's why I wanted him on

program. And where am I going wrong here, doctor? Well, Bill, you're right. The U.S. does have leverage, but China has some leverage as well. And it's not clear to me that we're going to necessarily win in this contest. China is in a position where if they're exports to the U.S. fall, they can offset that loss of demand by increasing their fiscal expenditure, loosening their monetary policy. It won't be perfect, but they can offset part of the loss of export revenue. But that's your term. They can't do that long term. They got 1.5 billion people. And those factories start to turn down. Those people don't have 401ks, doctor. They don't have anything in the bank. That's a communist. They live week to week.

They can do it for quite a while. On the other hand, the United States depends on China for some goods that we can't produce here and we can't source from other countries. So I think our adjustment may be a little bit more challenging. Give me an example of some of those goods that we can't source from another country. Rare earths is far and away the best example. China has almost a complete monopoly on the refining of rare earths, which are central. And that's why Trump wants to deal with Greenland, right? It will be a decade before you get any rare earths out of Greenland.

Okay, but that's the reason, right? That's part of it, certainly, yes. All right. And let's get back. Let me go back to what you said about 401Ks. Another reason the Chinese are not in such a tough position is their pension system does not depend on the stock market in China. In the U.S., we see a lot of people panicking because their 401Ks are going down in value. They're cutting back on their expenditure.

That's a given. I mean, there's no free investment in China at all except for the oligarchs. But you said that they can sustain. supporting their own population, again, $1.5 billion for a while, you know, you know that the Chinese deficit now, the deficit spending over there is at a record high. I mean, their whole yuan going to collapse if they can't get out of this trade war with Trump. It's going to collapse.

Nobody's going to want their money. You know that. They have a, yes, you're right. They do have a current deficit, but their government debt compared to the, that of the United States is very small. They've got some headroom. But again, we have an economic machine that generates trillions of dollars. They don't have that. They're dependent on selling stuff to us to Southeast Asia and the EU. Believe me, when I tell you, doctor, that part of the deal that Trump's going to make with the EU is, yeah, we're going to cut back a little on your China exports, right?

And he goes, okay, that's what's going to happen. You know. Maybe, but all I'm saying is the leverage is not entirely on the U.S. side. No, no, and I agree with that. It's dangerous, ultra dangerous. What about the war machine? Are you worried about the Chinese war machine? Well, they're ramping up their military expenditures, and it's been going on for a decade. Quite frankly, not very much of it is financed by the six or seven hundred billion we send to China. They have a, you know, their domestic economy is 12, 13 trillion. So a few hundred billion coming from the United States is not a decisive fact.

But if they want to buy tech and stuff like that, they got to buy dollars. The yuan is not going to, people aren't going to sell them stuff for their currency. They can operate within their borders with that. But if they want to go out, they have to pay dollars. They have an industrial complex that produces most of their military equipment. They're not buying a lot of civil. sophisticated military equipment on the international market. They don't need dollars to build up their military strength.

No, I disagree with that 100%, because I know what they're doing with Star Wars and these drones up there and the space stuff and all of those high-tech weapons. They're not self-sufficient in that area. They're a leader in drones. They're a leader in drones, producing them domestically. Yeah, but they need parts to produce it. They need all of that tech to produce it. Now, what about Apple? Apple is going to probably pull out of China. How badly is Apple going to hurt him?

Well, the question I would say is how bad is Apple going to be hurt by Trump's care of? So their market in the U.S. is going to collapse when the price of iPhones doubles or triples. All right. I don't disagree with that Apple's going to get hurt, but they're going to find a way to bring down their costs. It's a pretty genius company. So the scenario that you're portraying is that China has much more advantage and that Trump's foolish to go up against them and should have just left everything alone. Is that what you tell me? No, I'm saying that Trump is overestimating his leverage.

He certainly has some leverage. He may prevail in the end. I'm not forecasting that he's going to fail. But I think he's probably overestimating his leverage. It's a more uncertain outcome. I would say, than what you're portraying. Do you think that she wants this confrontation? No, I don't think he does.

Do you think he's willing then to deal? Well, his people have said they're willing to come to a negotiating table, but they're not going to do it if they have to make a whole lot of concessions. So they're going to keep the unfair trade thing in place no matter what? Yeah, I think we'll make some concessions in a in a balanced negotiation, but I don't think they're going to put themselves in the same position as the 70-some other countries that are begging for a deal. Even if the economy of China wobbles? Because Trump is hoping for that. Maybe, but their economy has slowed down quite a bit over the last decade, and they're still, you know, they're still, you know, they're still.

carrying out. But quality of life is not approved in our country very much. Well, for most people in China, their incomes are two to three times what they were a decade ago. Yeah, which was nothing a decade ago. Come on, you know what the incomes are. They live week to week over there. I mean, this is what I mean.

If those factories start to slow down, those people are laid off. Yeah, you're right. The Chinese government can pump in artificial stuff to keep. keep it going for a little while. But I'll tell you what, they're messing around with that fuse there, whereas the United States' capacity to support its population of 330 million is vastly superior to China. Last word. Well, I'm not a predictor, but we'll see how this plays out. I think China has a few more strengths than you're giving them credit for. All right. I'm not saying that. I'm not saying that. I'm not saying that. I'm not saying that. I'm not saying

prevail. No, I know. We got it. You think I'm underestimating Trump's advantage here. And you may be right. And we appreciate you coming in, Doctor. Thank you. Thank you. Okay, Trump's approval rating. And this was right after the first stock market pullback, Quinnipeak. Quintambiak's not a great poll. I hope it's getting better. I like the school. Great hockey team. Fair sample. First question, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump's handling the job? Prove 41, disapprove 53. That's down big for Trump. Okay. Second, do you approve or disapprove of Trump handling the economy in general? 40 approved, 55 disapproved. That's all about the stock market there, 100%. Third, do you approve or just approve the way Trump is handling trade?

Same number. 39 approved, 55 disapprove, exactly the same number. Foreign policy approved 40%. Disapprove 54, same number. all about emotion, all about the stock market decline. It's what it's about. And next week, who knows, right? These people on television are telling you they know,

oh, we might have a recession, whoa, I don't listen. Nobody knows. You just heard me and the doctor. I thought it was a pretty good discussion. He's got his point of view, I got my point of view. All right. I think we got a little more juice than he. he does. But he could be right. I can't guarantee my analysis is 100% correct, but I think it is.

You heard a lot about inflation not coming down. That's bull. The precious lies about this. So oil, today, $59 a barrel worldwide. A year ago under Joe Biden, remember Joe, $85 a barrel. Gone from 85 to 59. Hello. Mainstream media. Why don't report that? No. Eggs.

Remember the egg hysteria? Okay. So since Trump has been in office, eggs are down 50% price of eggs and falling because that bird flu thing is over. And here's what the anti-Trump people, Here's how they set up the eggs, go. What's going on in the world in the last 30 days? Well, let's see.

Egg prices are up. Goods are up. Stock market is down. I mean, you try to explain that to a mother now that's paying $6 for egg or me who paid $6 for a gallon of gas just a mile away from here. I mean, it's hard to explain to the American people today that somehow this is going to get better in their situations are going to get better. One thing that I know everyone cares about right now is egg prices. And we did see another big increase in egg prices. This is just month over month, 10%.

That was March 12th. You see, if you hate Trump, you're going to find a way, no matter what it is. Now, all those eggheads, thank you, thank you very much. You think you're going to go, gee, you know, I was wrong about the eggs. I was wrong about the oil. no let's ignore it because they know that people don't even remember what they say Panama is another one remember the hysteria about Panama oh Trump's going to take over

Panama and Trump did nothing to stop that but yesterday a deal was announced between the United States of Panama new defense and security pact aimed at reinforcing control over the Canal. Defense Secretary Pete Hankseth says, hey, we're happy with this deal. We like the deal. So, no, take over. Panama has made a deal, a security deal with the USA, and, mark my words, are going to drop their shipping prices for U.S. vessels. So here's what I said on January 20th. Go. Whatever deal President Trump wants, you'll get from Panama. I can't stand up. He's got that in his mind, believe me, and that'll be one of the first things. He'll get, what, 75% discount on all-American shipping, including military,

and then they'll have to boot the Chinese out and replace them with American security companies. That's what I think is going to get down. Member Week is here at Lowe's. Don't miss your chance to get up to 40% off hundreds of items like paint, faucets, vanities, doors, and more. Shop our exclusive deals happening in store and online now through July 18th. Not a member? Join My Lowe's Pro Rewards for free today and get ready to save more. Lowe's, we help.

You save. Loyalty program subject to terms and conditions. Details at Lowe's.com slash terms. Subject to change. You set the table, put on a playlist, even made the lasagna from scratch, and now you're wearing it. Oxyclean max-4 spray tackles tough, set in stains the first time. Adulting is hard. Fighting Stain shouldn't be.

OxyClean Maxforce. It's not clean unless it's OxyClean. Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. Good night. Now, I'm not a genius. I just know the world. I understand the dynamic of the world. Trump goes, take over Panama.

I'm not going to take it over. You got what he wanted. New security pack. American controls the security of the canal. Lower shipping rates. Chinese companies already got. He got 100%. Greenland is going to be the same thing.

Same thing. Iran. Now we're getting a little more complicated. So Iran's got a nuclear weapons facility. Okay? It's outside of Tehran's underground. Israel has infiltrated it, the Mossad. Israel knows pretty much what's going on there.

as far as the Iranians developing a nuclear weapon. Both Israel and the United States agree that cannot happen, will not happen, and if the Iranians don't give it up, there are going to be military action. Here's what Trump said yesterday. With Iran, yeah, if it requires military, we're going to have military. Israel will obviously be very much involved in that, you know, be the leader of that. But nobody leads us. We do what we want to do. Okay. So on Saturday this coming, in Oman, there is a face-to-face with the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Aragachi, and the U.S. envoy to Middle East, Steve Whitcomb.

And they're going to discuss nukes. Now, all that has to happen to prevent any military action against Iran, and I'll explain. what that would be in a moment, is that Iran says, you know what, we're going to pause our nuclear weapons program, and we're going to allow UN inspectors into our facility to make sure that happens. That's all. And then Trump will sweeten it up with some kind of economic benefit to Iran. Now, say Iran doesn't do that, says FU to Whitkoff in the United States and to Netanyahu in Israel. What will happen is that the Israeli Air Force, maybe the U.S., in conjunction with the Israelis, will bomb their ports. They get four, four major ports on the Gulf. That's where the oil, the Iranian oil, goes out for sale, and the food comes in. There's no food in Iran.

It's a desert. They need to import their food for the Persian people to stay alive. Afghanistan borders them to the Eastern Army food. Putin could get some food in, but Putin's got his own problems now. All right? So those four ports to disable them, five hours, maybe, maybe six. And they're done. Nothing in, nothing out. That's the military action.

Iran has got no cards. Media madness. Okay. So we have discussed a little bit, and I'm going to write a Sunday column on this. There's a bunch of books out about Biden and how befuddled Biden was. I don't know why anybody buy these books. I reported that four years ago. It was not hard to ascertain Joe Biden's mental condition. It was very easy. These books are based on anonymous sources, okay, which I don't read books that are based on anonymous sources. It's a waste of my time. time. Okay. So the central thesis of the books, all of them, is that the Democratic Party knew that Biden was diminished, and so did the corporate media. Enter Chuck Todd, who was on

Pierce Morgan. Go. The only thing I can chalk it up to is this, whatever you want to call it, this fear that some members of the media had sometimes that they would be perceived. as helping Trump if they somehow diminished Biden, right, that it was some sort of zero-sum game. And I think this has been the fundamental mistake that many members of the traditional press have done. I mean, the only thing I can chalk it up to is that, no, they were told to do this. And Chuck Todd knows that he worked for NBC. The entire culture of NBC News, the entire culture, 100,000. 100% is. Trump bad, liberal's good. Every show, everywhere, everyone. And they've taught,

well, you know, they didn't want to enable Trump. Did what you were told to do. And they host you anyway. CNN had a town hall with Bernie Sanders last night. Why? Why? Bernie Sanders? He's not in the news cycle. He doesn't have any power. He's a communist. Why would you give him an hour? And they're going to, believe me, I don't have the ratings in yet, but nobody, nobody. They won't crack a million on that.

And it was Anderson Cooper. They don't get any ratings anyway, but they'll go down. So I said to my staff, I can't watch this. I was just too busy. So just give me what Bernie, give me one soundbite in an hour that Bernie said. Here it is. There are some of us who from day one have understood that we've got to stand up and rally the American people to fight against this horrendous agenda, which at the end of the day is really significantly

about giving massive tax breaks to the top 1%. So what Trump and the Republicans are saying is, hey, Let's cut Medicaid by some $880 billion, and let's use those savings to give tax breaks to the very wealthiest people in this country. It's so ridiculous, so ridiculous. But he says it every day, Bernie Sanders. And he believes it, because he wants to believe it. There's absolutely no truth at all. It would be like me coming on this broadcast tonight and saying,

next Tuesday, the nation of Canada is going to apply for U.S. statehood. That's not happening. It's never going to happen. But I would tell you that. That's what Bernie Sanders does. Now, who wants to hear this? It's so far out of the realm of possibility. That's what they do.

Department of Homeland Security. says that thousands of illegal immigrants have moved out of here, okay? They have said, we're not staying in the U.S., we're self-deporting. So what is the number? Well, my crack staff, got it. 5,000. Let's see, 5,000 at a 14 million? No, that's not a big number.

5,000 said, eh. Now, they may have been homesick or. They might, you know, but that's not a lot. That was $5 million, but this self-deportation, not working. Smart Life. Okay, this study is from AARP, and I know some of you don't like AARP, but I'm kind of neutral on it. I like AAC better, but AARP, they're not totally useless. they did a study and it says 20% of Americans over the age of 50 have no retirement savings at all,

not a dime. I believe it. 61% say they're worried. They're not going to have enough money to support themselves in retirement and you should be worried. If you're 50 years old and you've got no retirement savings, you're in a heap of trouble. Every day I get letters from concierge members and that's on bill o'Reilly.com. That's a program. If you get into trouble or have questions about anything, we will help you with the trouble

and answer your questions within 24 hours. I would say that 25% of the letters begin with, I have no money. I'm broke. I'm sick. I got this. My kid's that.

I don't have any money. I just got laid off. I don't have any money. I don't have any money. Heartbreaking. It's heartbreaking. To me, because I want all Americans to prosper.

I'm doing to my family, because we're going to Burlington for the event of liquidation candidate. We're going to now to find the best of the best in articles of liquidation, from the world, and much more.

With offers, over-offertas. I can go back day to be how to earn. and I hope we're with anxious the liquidation because it's a very calient to lose

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Because from the time I was 10 years old, I worked. Cutting lawn, shoveling snow, babysitting, then I painted houses, on and on and on. Always, always worked. My father said, you are going to save 10% of everything you earned, and I did. So, therefore, I always had money. But apparently millions and millions of Americans don't, and I don't get it. If you don't have any money, you are powerless. You are dependent on other people.

That is the worst thing you can be. You cannot depend on another person, even if it's your wife or husband or you can't. You have to be self-sufficient, smart life. The other people can help you and add to you the quality of your life, but you cannot be dependent on anyone. And the only way out of that is to have resources, to have money in this capitalistic system. Think about it because you're going to get it

if you don't have any money. If I were 50, I had no money. I'd hop on an Uber and I'd work two jobs for two years. That's what I would do. Stay on History, April 10th, 1970. Paul McCartney says he's through with the Beatles. Fascinating story, 55 years ago, I wrote about it in killing the legends in great detail.

Essentially what happened to the Beatles, was, they became so successful and so wealthy, so fast. Remember, 1964 to 70 is a six-year arc where they sold billions of records. But they went nuts. They started taking drugs and doing all this other thing. The only guy who was even relatively stable was Ringo. The other three were like all over the place. And then Lenin takes up with Yoko Ono. It was a completely I don't know what word I don't want to use, but when you read Killing the Legend to see how she behaved Yoko Ono, nobody could have put up with that. So McCarty enough, okay, no statement issue. We look for some tape on this, nothing. McCarty went out and immediately founded his own band Wings. Go.

Maybe I'm afraid of the way I love me all the time. Maybe I'm afraid of the way I love you. Maybe I'm amazed at the way you pulled me out of time. You hung me on a line. Maybe I'm amazed at the way I really need you. All right, to this day, the Beatles have streamed two billion times a year, hundreds of millions of dollars flow into the two Survivors Star and McCartney. And that happened to break up 55 years ago today.

Okay, we are going to do, in the final thought, a piece on how dumb the press is. Right back with it. All right, final thought of the day, as I have told you, and I did an interview with Dan Abrams on his serious channel today. And I just said, you know, a lot of the television pundits aren't smart enough to do the job. They don't know enough. So let me give you a, you know about me in cliches. Clices should drive me nuts. This is what I hear every single day that I watch television news, all right? Every day I hear that the same words over and over and over. The first one, on by the way.

Go. And by the way, this whole thing with Trump right now, and I take the view that he's going for real here. And, oh, by the way, he hasn't charged reciprocal tariffs. We're not using Jennifer's last day, by the way, for privacy reasons. By the way, $39 billion reopened. And by the way, the average U.S. tariff was 2.5%. Stop.

saying, by the way, stop saying at the end of the day, and stop saying we'll see. Go. All right, well, we'll have to see how it all plays out. Well, we'll see if the fiscal problems are fixed in the near term. And then we'll see if they have the votes. And we'll see how they cover it this time. Kate, when you're being paid hundreds of thousands of dollars, you've got to give me more than we'll see. okay geez I mean where is the quality control by the way by the way by the way this means they're not thinking they're not thinking they're reciting oh I know I know

it's me I know it's me I know you don't care but I had to do it final thought we have a column on the Biden books you're gonna like this column on Sunday We thank you for watching us today. I'm Bill O'Reilly, and we'll see you again on Monday.